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Sustainable Development Goals Series
SDG: 16
Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions
Simple Solutions to
Complex Catastrophes
Dialectics of Peace, Climate, Finance,
and Health
John Braithwaite
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Sustainable Development Goals Series
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The Sustainable Development Goals Series is Springer Nature’s inaugural cross-imprint book series that addresses and supports the United
Nations’ seventeen Sustainable Development Goals. The series fosters
comprehensive research focused on these global targets and endeavours to
address some of society’s greatest grand challenges. The SDGs are inherently multidisciplinary, and they bring people working across different
fields together and working towards a common goal. In this spirit, the
Sustainable Development Goals series is the first at Springer Nature to
publish books under both the Springer and Palgrave Macmillan imprints,
bringing the strengths of our imprints together.
The Sustainable Development Goals Series is organized into eighteen
subseries: one subseries based around each of the seventeen respective
Sustainable Development Goals, and an eighteenth subseries, “Connecting the Goals”, which serves as a home for volumes addressing
multiple goals or studying the SDGs as a whole. Each subseries is
guided by an expert Subseries Advisor with years or decades of experience
studying and addressing core components of their respective Goal.
The SDG Series has a remit as broad as the SDGs themselves,
and contributions are welcome from scientists, academics, policymakers,
and researchers working in fields related to any of the seventeen
goals. If you are interested in contributing a monograph or curated
volume to the series, please contact the Publishers: Zachary Romano
[Springer; zachary.romano@springer.com] and Rachael Ballard [Palgrave
Macmillan; rachael.ballard@palgrave.com].
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John Braithwaite
Simple Solutions
to Complex
Catastrophes
Dialectics of Peace, Climate, Finance,
and Health
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Contents
1
Prologue
References
1
6
2
Rapid Cascades, Coupled Crises
Speed, Coupling, Complexity
Hyper-Hubs and Hyper-Disruption
Slow, Simple Solutions for a Fast, Complex World
What Kind of Simplicity Helps Manage Complexity?
Requisite Variety
Summary of Policy Propositions by Chapter
The Policy Hypotheses
References
9
10
14
19
27
32
39
39
48
3
Containment of Crises
Markets in Vice, Markets in Virtue from Climate to Covid
Nuclear Weapons and Covid Cannot Be Unmade
Conclusion
References
51
52
61
70
73
v
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vi
4
5
6
Contents
Containing Russia: Containing Nuclear Wars
and Lesser Wars that Cascade
George Kennan’s Containment
Radicalizing George Kennan and Hedley Bull Realism
The Puzzle of Nuclear Weapon States that Rarely Invade
Weak States
Summarizing the Modern History of Invasions
War Made Past Empires
Why Indonesia Grows Toward Becoming a Future Great
Power
The Tunnel Vision of a Nuclear Peace
The Nonviolence Alternative of Timor-Leste Plus 21
Abolitionist States
Civil Resistance Often Works in Contemporary
Conditions
The Puzzle That the Wealthiest Societies are Militarily
Weak
Temporary Alliances to Contain Nuclear War Threats
Three Historic Spikes of Short-Range Nuclear Missile Risk
Covert Distrust of Free Russians by Western Neocons
and Hawks
References
77
78
80
82
91
94
97
98
100
103
105
114
126
129
135
Containing China: Containing Temporarily
Permanently De-Containing China and Every Society
Cyber-Guardrails
Containing Iran and Other ‘Rogue States’
Containing Myanmar
Implications of Containing ‘Rogue States’
for Containing a ‘Rogue Russia’
Contain Threats; Abandon Long-Term Containment
of States
References
141
149
152
155
159
Institutions to Manage Threats
Containment of Threats
Resurrecting Andrew Mack
181
181
184
161
169
178
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Contents
7
8
9
vii
Drivers of Optimism About Peace
The Big Picture of Catastrophe Prevention
References
188
204
214
Containing Deadly Systems
Averting Deforestation
Odds of Armageddon
Speed, Coupling, Endless Unbalancing of Equilibria:
AI, MADD, Hypersonics
Lessons from the Past
The ‘One-Eyed Man’
Terror and the Harm Principle for Restorative Universities
Persuading India and Pakistan
Scaling Up Regional Dynamics of Disarmament
Leadership by Universities for Doomsday Machine
Defection
WMD Whistleblowers, Super-Intelligence,
Super-Deterrence
References
219
220
225
Imagining Restorative Diplomacy
What is Restorative Diplomacy?
Super-Soft Diplomacy
Diverse Deposits in the Adversary’s Bank
that Compensates for Competition
Entrepreneurial Competition, Strong Cooperation
Great Power Dialogue
An Overly Realist Profession
Good and Evil in the Heart of the Spymaster
Renewing America’s Ethical Core Diplomatically
References
269
275
277
Nuclear and Regime-Change Diplomacy:
the Restorative Critique
Nuclear Diplomacy
Nuclear Weapon Mishaps
229
235
239
243
248
249
254
256
264
279
280
287
288
294
299
301
305
305
307
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viii
Contents
Nuclear Surety Inspection as Restorative Regulatory
Diplomacy
Beyond Neocon or Realist Verities
Relational Excellence in Diplomacy
Public Diplomacy for Uncertain Times
The Ethos of Winning
Interfering in the Domestic Politics of Others
Does Foreign Electoral Interference Work?
Violent Interventions in Foreign Domestic Politics
Catastrophic Success
John Mearsheimer Redeemed, Transcended
References
314
321
323
325
327
329
331
335
336
340
349
10
Contest Political Ritualism
Gaming Democracy
Slow-Food Global Politics
Regulatory Ritualism
Responsive Regulation to Contain Risk
Return to Street-Level Bureaucracy
Conclusion: Principles for Transcending Ritualism
References
355
360
362
365
371
378
382
385
11
Requisite Variety and Simple Institutional Virtues
Thinking Dialectically About Complexity
My Controversial Simplifications
The Ambulance Metaphor Revisited
Many Disparate Simple Institutions
Early Detection; Early Response
Overdetermined Prevention: Simple Versus Complex
Dialectics
Thinking Systemically About Simple Institutions
to Prioritize
Rally Behind Front-Line Workers of Crisis Prevention
Institutions
References
389
390
397
402
405
407
Index
418
421
424
426
429
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About the Author
John Braithwaite is an Emeritus Distinguished Professor of the
Australian National University, and an interdisciplinary scholar of peacebuilding, war crime, business crime, criminological theory, and regulation and governance. He founded and was the first Director of the School
of Regulation and Global Governance (RegNet) at ANU Many of his
previous works can be downloaded from johnbraithwaite.com.
ix
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Abbreviations
AI
ASEAN
ATM
BCCI
BRA
CEO
CIA
DRC
EU
GDP
GRIT
IAEA
IMF
IR
IRA
MAD
MADD
NATO
NGO
NSC
Artificial Intelligence
Association of South East Asian Nations
Automated Teller Machine
Bank of Credit and Commerce International
Bougainville Revolutionary Army
Chief Executive Officer
United States Central Intelligence Agency
Democratic Republic of Congo
European Union
Gross Domestic Product
Graduated Reciprocation in Tension-Reduction
International Atomic Energy Agency
International Monetary Fund
International Relations
Irish Republican Army
Mutual Assured Destruction
Mutual Assured Digital Destruction
North Atlantic Treaty Organization
Non-Government Organization
United States National Security Council
xi
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xii
Abbreviations
PPE
R&D
UN
WHO
WMD
Personal Protective Equipment
Research and Development
United Nations
World Health Organization
Weapons of Mass Destruction
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1
Prologue
Abstract This book is optimistic in explaining why simple institutions and principles societies can strengthen to help humankind control
complex catastrophes that endanger the planet. Security realities of
Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) do compel pessimism. Yet my
argument is that it is possible to abolish WMDs. The journey of a
revived peace movement can grow institutional capability to conquer
climate catastrophe, pandemics, economic crises, and to secure peace
from smaller wars. The book develops a dialectics of alternating between
understanding complex ways of grappling with complexity and simple
principles that are generative of nuanced response to complexity.
Keywords Complexity · Dialectics · Peace movement · Environment ·
Financial crises
This book is optimistic in explaining why simple institutions and principles societies can strengthen to help humankind control complex
catastrophes that endanger the planet. Security realities of Weapons of
Mass Destruction (WMDs) do compel pessimism. Yet my argument is
that it is possible to abolish WMDs. The journey of a revived peace
1
J. Braithwaite, Simple Solutions to Complex Catastrophes, Sustainable Development
Goals Series, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-48747-7_1
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2
J. Braithwaite
movement toward achieving that will increase institutional capabilities
to conquer climate catastrophe, pandemics, economic crises, and to
secure peace from smaller wars. Nuclear calamity is an ugly topic. Denial
and forgetting are natural human responses. My pitch to readers who
care about environmental politics, policies to prevent the globalization
of disease, and the dominations of the financialization of capitalism,
platform capitalism, and surveillance capitalism is that pathways to transformation there can be unblocked by a peace movement that makes
progress on WMD abolition.
A human species that has survived thousands of generations is likely
to exist for no more than a century or two unless nuclear weapons
are rapidly minimized, followed by progress toward abolishing them
completely, alongside all WMDs. No strategy of abolition, no enduring
survival. Yet with a strategy that falls short of full success, sustainable
human development, human flourishing, and survival of humankind are
probable. By destroying most (not all) nuclear weapons can we prevent
weapons from destroying most (not all) of us. A world with fewer than
100 nuclear weapons is a threat to the planet but not an existential one;
it would take at least 100 nuclear weapons striking urban areas to cause
nuclear winter.
Payne (2020) documents huge numbers of generals, admirals, and
defense secretaries enmeshed in the nuclear deterrence regime who came
out in retirement to say that nuclear deterrence was irrational, ridden
with logical flaws and contradictions, assumptions that were untested,
untestable, implausible. These generals, admirals, and defense secretaries
emerged from the closet as nuclear abolitionists. Even generals who are
not WMD abolitionists often show how dubious they are about nuclear
deterrence doctrines, for example saying: ‘Firing off 1000 or 500 or 2000
nuclear warheads on a few minutes’ consideration has always struck me
as an absurd way to go to war’ (General William Odom in Payne 2020,
104).
People say abolition is a pipe dream because the defense establishment
of great powers always resists giving up their weapons. The historical record suggests quite the opposite (Payne 2020; Holloway 2011;
Neuneck 2011; Rydell 2011). During the periods of US history when
incumbent presidents said publicly that they would get behind a move
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1 Prologue
3
toward total abolition, as Presidents Truman, Kennedy, Reagan, and
Obama did very explicitly in their time, dozens of former generals,
defense secretaries, national security advisors and secretaries of state,
including formidable hawks like Henry Kissinger, came out publicly
in agreement, arguing that new realities, new evidence, made the old
arguments for nuclear deterrence obsolete. Old generals have grandchildren too. The pipedream analysis grew even after these surges in
strategic support for abolition because Stalin would not support Truman’s
abolitionism, Putin would not support Obama’s even though Putin’s
predecessor did support Obama’s step by step abolitionism before President Medvedev was replaced by Putin’s return to the Presidency, Kennedy
was assassinated, Reagan’s term ended and a coup terminated his Moscow
partner, Gorbachev, who advocated abolition before Reagan advocated
it. One day, hope and history will rhyme, and abolitionist incumbents
of the great powers will together ratify the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. The alternative historical possibility, this book
argues, is that the great powers will wipe each other out before that day
arrives.
I argue that we owe our descendants no less a guarantee than step
by step progress toward abolition of WMDs; social movements we join
can deliver it; and although the challenges are complex; they are not
impossibly complex. I conclude that prioritizing Sustainable Development Goal 17 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions) by preventing
wars and rebuilding justice with strong institutions after wars, opens a
wide path to other Sustainable Development Goals, particularly Climate
Action (13), Affordable and Clean Energy (7), No Poverty (1), Zero
Hunger (2), Good Health and Wellbeing (3), Quality Education (4),
Gender Equality (5), and Reduced Inequalities (10).
Movement has sadly been in the opposite direction since the politics of
peace unraveled after the ill-fated Arab Spring in 2011. A problem is the
propensity for wars to cascade to other catastrophes—economic, famine,
pandemics, Ozone hole reopening, and climate change. Notwithstanding
these realities, a politics of hope works better for humankind than
nihilism. There are realistic strategies for containing war and tempering
the other crises that cascade with it. By tempering these other crises,
international society can reduce risks of them cascading to nuclear war.
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4
J. Braithwaite
At the time of writing, we see the problem with the war in Ukraine.
Cooperation between Western and Russian university scientists on what
great carbon powers like Russia and the United States need to do to
tame the climate crisis has ceased. Instead of the United States, Europe,
and Russia collaborating to assist each other to achieve the kind of
reforestation of their large land masses that China has been achieving,
Russia, the EU, and United States pour ever more weapons into Ukraine
to blow ecosystems out of the soil. Tanks, aircraft, and other military
materiel worldwide exhale carbon dioxide at scale onto the climate crisis,
2,750 million tons in 2022 according to the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change. Both sides are responsible for shelling at the largest
nuclear plant in Europe, setting fire on one occasion to this dirty bomb
waiting to happen. The oppression and anxiety of Ukrainians forced
to work at the plant and live nearby under such threat by the Russian
occupation was a war crime. Cooperation between NATO and Russian
epidemiologists on future pandemic prevention ground to a halt since
that war started in 2014.
This book argues that war and environmental destruction have been
deep-rooted causes of pandemics in the era of the globalization of
disease. Not only has collaboration between NATO and Russian regulators ceased toward financial crisis prevention, the talents of financial
regulators have been conscripted to causing global financial crises that
start in the enemy economy, but that have already spilled to global inflation, debt, and food insecurity for the planet’s poorest people. Ukraine
is no more than a tragic contemporary illustration of a general principle
that peace is generative; it turns off taps that fuel the fires of crises; peace
reconnects taps of crisis prevention knowhow.
My approach is first to understand the complex connections among
crises. Then I argue that the best starting point for containing crises is
to identify some simple principles and institutions that are generative of
better control of the complexity of catastrophes. The first of these is peace
itself. The book advocates not only soft diplomacy, but super-soft diplomacy, a diplomacy that abandons containment of Russia and China,
replacing this with nourishing cooperative, collaborative problem-solving
among competing great powers. At the same time, I advocate a kind
of super-intelligence among intelligence agencies to detect cheating on
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1 Prologue
5
treaties that ban WMDs, treaties that require carbon emission reductions, combined with a distinctive kind of responsive deterrence. That
deterrence goes to reform of the international law of extradition to
protect whistleblowers. Those who treasonously disclose illicit WMD
programs and other programs to game treaties that protect us against
WMDs must be revered. We can protect them. It is proposed that intelligence agencies of all states share knowledge on covert WMD programs
(super-intelligence) and that states commit to a duty to support chokepoint sanctions and to a last resort of conventional military attacks on
the WMD programs of states that cheat on anti-WMD treaties. Collaborative commitment to this against a rogue WMD user should mean that
this last resort is never needed.
The combination of extradition reform, a large enough temporary
coalition to control a diverse array of contextual chokepoints, plus diverse
conventional weapon capabilities might assemble a novel kind of superdeterrence executed by a temporary UN-sanctioned super-alliance. It
only needs to hold together for long enough to secure WMD destruction in a rogue state. Put another way, the imperative for averting an
irreparable cascade of many catastrophes might be for states to cooperate
with their enemies on these solutions. This, after all, is what Churchill
and FDR did in cooperating with Stalin to defeat the existential threat
of fascism. That coalition lacked the chokepoint capabilities enabled
by the coupled character of today’s networked complexity. Chokepoints
are chancy for aggressive single powers, however great they are. The
complexly coupled flux of the world economy means that it is hard for
any single great power to be sure that closing a chokepoint to another
great power will not cause the other power and its allies to surprise
it with their control of what turns out to be a more devastating array
of chokepoints. The world economy can disengage from corporations
that apply chokepoints against enemy states. Hence aggressive powers
can stumble by cutting off the chokepoint branches on which they sit.
Responsive regulation of WMD threats with chokepoints has therefore
become potent but is most potent as a weapon of a large coalition of
states, riskier as the weapon of a rogue great power.
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6
J. Braithwaite
My argument is that there are some simple solutions that go to the
heart of how to tame complex catastrophes. We must also cultivate institutions that allow us to comprehend complexity. This is a book about the
dialectics of movement between simple solutions and complex responsiveness to crises. The best path to pandemic prevention is to start with
consensus on a simple preventive institution—a pandemic preparedness
agency, as the European Union has recently institutionalized. The idea
of such an institution, however, is that it will help societies to grapple
with the complexity of pandemic response. The successful Taiwanese
prototype of a preparedness plan swung into action in January 2021.
It had no fewer than 124 discrete measures it was ready to mobilize
against covid’s complex evolution. The thesis of a simple imperative for a
pandemic preparedness institution has the antithesis of a 124-point plan
of some complexity. Wicked problems do require design thinking like
this Taiwanese plan. The paradox here is that a simple institutional idea
creates an institution that is generative of multifaceted responsiveness to
complexity.
Please dear reader help by writing to me when you find any of the
howlers that doubtless lurk in a book that ranges widely over terrain that
I know quite well, but other terrain that I do not. My thanks to endless
support from my beloved partner Valerie Braithwaite who engaged me
on this book since 1972, for the support of all the family, including
Brian, but especially Sari. Thanks to a hundred other co-authors, friends,
former colleagues, and students across the world. My conversations with
you helped in ways I hope you might see. Special thanks to my Palgrave
editor Josie Taylor for being so helpful as she saw some vision in the book
and to anonymous reviewers.
John Braithwaite
References
Holloway, David 2011. The vision of a world free of nuclear weapons. In
Getting to zero: The path to nuclear disarmament, ed. Catherine M. Kelleher
and Judity Reppy. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
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1 Prologue
7
Neuneck, Gotz. 2011. Getting to zero: The path to nuclear disarmament, ed.
Catherine M. Kelleher and Judity Reppy. Stanford: Stanford University
Press.
Payne, Rodger A. 2020. Stigmatization by ridicule. In Non-nuclear peace:
Beyond the nuclear ban treaty, ed. T. Sauer, J. Kustermans, and B. Segaert.
London: Palgrave.
Rydell, Randy 2011. Advocacy for nuclear disarmament: A global revival?.
Getting to zero: The path to nuclear disarmament, ed. Catherine M. Kelleher
and Judity Reppy. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative
Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and
reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate
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The images or other third party material in this chapter are included in the
chapter’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line
to the material. If material is not included in the chapter’s Creative Commons
license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or
exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from
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