United Nations Futuristic Security Council C.T.C, 2030
Study Guide
United Nations Futuristic Security Council
Counter Terrorism Committee, 2030
Agenda: Addressing the threats to international peace and
security posed by the Global Axis of Terrorism, with
special emphasis on its logistical, financial, and military
ties with state sponsored terror groups.
Freeze Date: 7th of October 2023.
United Nations Futuristic Security Council C.T.C, 2030
Contents
Chairperson’s Address ............................................................................................................... 3
About the United Nations Security Council- Counter Terrorism Committee (UNSC-CTC) .... 5
The Counter Terrorism Committee ........................................................................................ 6
Freeze Date of the Committee ................................................................................................... 7
Timeline for the United Nations Futuristic Security Council- Counter Terrorism Committee . 8
Major Parties involved in the Conflict ..................................................................................... 21
The Russian Federation: ....................................................................................................... 21
United States of America ..................................................................................................... 23
The Republic of India ........................................................................................................... 27
The State of Israel ................................................................................................................ 28
The Republic of Iraq ............................................................................................................ 30
Syrian Arab Republic ........................................................................................................... 31
Republic of Lebanon ............................................................................................................ 32
State of Palestine .................................................................................................................. 33
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland ............................................... 34
Islamic Republic of Pakistan ................................................................................................ 35
The French Republic ............................................................................................................ 35
The United Arab Emirates.................................................................................................... 36
The Republic of the Philippines, The Republic of Indonesia and The Federation of Malaya
.............................................................................................................................................. 36
People’s Republic of China .................................................................................................. 38
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia ............................................................................................. 38
Ukraine ................................................................................................................................. 39
The Republic of Yemen ....................................................................................................... 40
Federal Republic of Nigeria ................................................................................................. 41
The Republic of Turkiye ...................................................................................................... 41
Causes behind the rapid rise in global terrorism ...................................................................... 42
The ongoing conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine .................................... 42
The Israel-Palestine Conflict ................................................................................................ 43
Rising trend of terrorism in Africa ....................................................................................... 45
Tensions in South Asia......................................................................................................... 47
Alleged involvement of drug cartels .................................................................................... 49
Emerging terror attacks in Europe ....................................................................................... 49
Relaxations in international financial regulation policy ...................................................... 50
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Consequences of the Crisis ...................................................................................................... 52
Position Papers ......................................................................................................................... 53
Citations ................................................................................................................................... 54
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United Nations Futuristic Security Council C.T.C, 2030
Chairperson’s Address
Dear Delegates, we welcome you to the United Nations Futuristic Security Council CounterTerrorism Committee (UNFSC-CTC) at the 14th edition of JacoMUN’24.
Set at a time of global chaos, this committee is set at a juncture in world history which could
very well determine the creation of the new world order. The politico-military instability in
Europe and the destruction and devastation witnessed in the Israel-Hamas War gave rise to a
new spectre of terrorism, leading to the immediate restructuring of the Al Qaeda leadership
and the revival of its previously condemned Shura Council, thus forming an effective centre
of authority for the Al Qaeda organization. Relaxed immigration laws in the United Kingdom
and the European Union have allowed an influx of hundreds of Islamic State militants into
Western Europe allowing them to conduct large-scale and coordinated attacks across the UK,
France, Germany and Belgium while the Al Qaeda aligned Caucasus Emirate has been
revived by the initiation of crippling attacks within the Russian Federation which has already
occupied the entirety of Eastern Ukraine. Moreover, relaxations introduced in international
financial regulation triggered by the United States of America has allowed for both non-state
entities as well as prominent Mexican cartels to finance these terror groups, resulting in a rise
in global drug trafficking and cartel wars provoked by allegiances to terror groups. Amidst
these complexities, the involvement of allegedly state sponsored entities such as the
Hezbollah and Hamas as well as exchanges of accusations of financing terrorism between the
United States of America and the Russian Federation as well as India and the People’s
Republic of China, have only served to rapidly escalate global politico-military stability. As
far-right Neo-Nazi armed groups rise in Europe and work in concert with the Al Qaeda to
defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the world faces its greatest threat yet, the
Global Axis of Terrorism.
A delegation in this committee is not only expected to portray exceptional diplomacy and
comprehensive research but also delve deeper into the multiplicity of issues arising out of the
current trend of terrorism including its various spheres, be it political, financial, military or
legal. For survival in this world, belongs only to the strongest.
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Delegates, a little something about myself.
I am Aryan Ghosh, a Humanities student of the 2023-24 batch at St. James’ School, Kolkata.
With a keen interest in geopolitics and foreign policy as well as certain aspects of
international law, I am currently pursuing Political Science and International Relations at the
college level. Having participated in Model UN conferences since class 8, it has been a rollercoaster ride, filled with amazing memories and rather interesting experiences. Besides Model
UN, I have had the opportunity to participate in debates, corporate events and moot courts, all
of which have played a role in helping me understand the issues that affect our world today.
Part of our goal in deciding an agenda as this, was to take an issue which has been considered
a cliché in the Kolkata school circuit and to elevate it to a level which challenges the
delegates of this generation to step out of their comfort zones and use both creativity and
realpolitik, working in sync with the mandate and limitations of the United Nations, to solve
an issue that our world has been grappled with since time immemorial.
MUN is not just an event or competition- It is an experience and it is this experience which
has helped all of us grow and I sincerely hope that it helps each one of you to learn and
evolve, especially as individuals! Model UN tends to be overwhelming, especially in the first
few conferences, but we, as an Executive Board, are always there to help you through any
difficulties you may face during the next three days.
Until then,
In Omnia Paratus,
Aryan Ghosh,
Chairperson of the United Nations Futuristic Security Council Counter-Terrorism Committee
(UNFSC-CTC).
Feel free to reach out to us on our committee email: unfscctc.jacomun24@gmail.com
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About the United Nations Security Council- Counter Terrorism Committee
(UNSC-CTC)
The United Nations Security Council is the executive organ of the United Nations
Organization, responsible for maintaining international peace and security. The Security
Council derives its powers from Chapters VI, VII, VIII and XII of the United Nations
Charter.
As outlined in Article 34 of the UN
Charter, the Security Council may
investigate any dispute, or any
situation which might lead to
international friction or give rise to
a dispute, in order to determine
whether the continuance of the
dispute or situation is likely to
endanger the maintenance of
international peace and security.
Chambers of the UN Security Council
Article 39 mandates themajor Security Council to determine the existence of any threat to
the peace, breach of the peace, or act of aggression and shall make recommendations, or
decide what measures shall be taken in accordance with Articles 41 and 42, to maintain
or restore international peace and security. Referring to measures not involving the use of
armed force, the Security Council adheres to Article 41 to resort to measures including
“complete or partial interruption of economic relations and of rail, sea, air, postal,
telegraphic, radio, and other means of communication, and the severance of diplomatic
relations”. If these measures are to be deemed inadequate to alleviate the crisis, then the
Security Council may resort to Article 42 which gives it the power to take “such action by
air, sea, or land forces as may be necessary to maintain or restore international peace
and security”, which “may include demonstrations, blockade, and other operations by
air, sea, or land forces of Members of the United Nations”.
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The Counter Terrorism Committee
The Counter Terrorism Committee (CTC) was established by the Security Council
Resolution 1373 (2001). This Resolution was adopted by the Security Council unanimously
in lights of recent attack on the World Trade Centre (WTC) on 28th of September, 2001.
The Committee comprises of all the 15 members of the Security Council, each of which is
tasked with the monitoring and implementation of Resolution 1373. This requested countries
to implement enhanced measures which would improve their legal and constitutional ability
to counter terrorism and extremism in their home region, surrounding areas and the world.
This included taking steps to:
1. Criminalize the financing of terrorism
2. Freeze without delay any funds related to persons involved in the acts of terrorism
3. Deny all forms of financial support for terrorist groups
4. Suppress the provision of safe haven, sustenance or support for terrorists
5. Share information with other governments on any groups practicing or planning terrorist acts
6. Cooperate with other governments in the investigation, detection, arrest, extradition and
prosecution of those involved in such acts; and
7. Criminalize active and passive assistance for terrorism in domestic law and bring violators to
justice.
The resolution also calls on States to become parties, as soon as possible, to the
relevant international counter-terrorism legal instruments.
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Freeze Date of the Committee
The Freeze Date of the Futuristic Security Council- Counter Terrorism Committee is on the 7th of
October 2023. Any events or decisions, whether they are political, economic, social,
administrative or military in nature, will not be taken into consideration by the Executive
Board. Thus, they will not be admissible in the committee.
Events occurring on or after the 7th of October 2023 are under the discretion of the Executive
Board and will be released in the committee as updates, except for those which have already
been mentioned in the timeline formulated by the Executive Board.
However, the Executive Board has provided a few dates at the beginning to provide context to the
Timeline.
The series of events after 7th of October, 2023 mentioned in the Timeline will be taken into
consideration by the Executive Board of the Futuristic Security Council-Counter Terrorism
Committee and thus, will be admissible in committee.
The United Nations Futuristic Security Council- Counter Terrorism Committee (UNFSCCTC) is currently meeting on the 31st of May 2030.
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Timeline for the United Nations Futuristic Security Council- Counter
Terrorism Committee
This Timeline provides a summary of the terrorism-related events that have occurred in the
world and have led to the current situation occurring in the world, as far as terrorism and
extremism is concerned. This timeline is meant to provide you, the delegates, a
comprehensive understanding of the crisis at hand which will help you to steer and determine
your policy with respect to the crisis updates, in particular, and the current situation, in
general.
24th February 2022: The Russian Federation launches its special military operation against
Ukraine.
27th February 2022: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declares the formation of
the International Legion for the Territorial Defense of Ukraine, calling upon volunteers from
other countries to join and help Ukraine against the Russian attack.
15th February 2023: The Russian Federation accuses Ukraine of including fighters from the
Al Qaeda, the allegedly Al Qaeda aligned Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamic State of Iraq
and Syria (ISIS) in its International Legion.
7th October 2023: In what is seen as a surprise attack, the Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic
Jihad (PIJ), the Popular Resistance Committees (PRCs), the Popular Front for the Liberation
of Palestine (PFLP) and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP) launch
an offensive against Israel. 3000 rockets from the aforementioned groups hit Israeli areas
surrounding Gaza and in the Sharon Plain, including Gedera, Tel Aviv and Herzliyya.
8th October 2023: Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah issues a Proclamation stating that its
forces are now on high alert and will militarily respond if Israel attacks Hezbollah fighters in
Syria and Lebanon. Moreover, the Middle East News Agency and Al Jazeera publish reports
accusing officials from the United States of America and its Western allies from the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) of engaging in negotiations with Al Qaeda members in
Iran, Syria and Iraq, as a means to an alleged “grand strategy to topple Anti-western
Governments across the Middle East”.
10th October 2023: After more than a year of political instability within the Al Qaeda
leadership over the issue of succession to the position of Emir following the assassination of
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Ayman al-Zawahiri, Abd al-Rahman al-Maghrebi takes charge as Emir of Al Qaeda,
effectively ending the deadlock within the Al Qaeda leadership.
12th October 2023: The Arab League holds an Emergency Summit where leaders of the Arab
League call for a two state solution to be implemented for Palestine and demand an end to
Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
15th October 2023: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) begin a counter-offensive titled
Operation Swords of Iron which involves relentless bombardment of Hamas positions in the
Gaza Strip, cutting off all electricity to Gaza and cutting off all food, water and medical
supply routes to Palestinians. Israeli airstrikes in the Gaza Strip result in thousands of
casualties. Prime Minister Netanyahu declares in his Address to the Nation, “We shall not
stop until every last Hamas militant is killed and each inch of Gaza belongs to us.”
20th November 2023: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issues a High Alert
for all its forces, thus activating all its proxy groups in Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. The
Houthi rebels issue the declaration of a Special Military Operation against the State of Israel
in favor of the liberation of Palestine. Al Jazeera reports negotiations between Members of
the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United
Arab Emirates and the Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) to begin a “Holy War”
against the State of Israel. GCC officials deny these allegations.
23rd November 2023: William Burns, the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
of the United States of America testifies to the House of Representatives that the Five Eyes
(comprising the US, the UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand) have begun recording
significantly higher levels of activity in Al Qaeda communication channels and increased
financial support and crowdfunding for the Al Qaeda and its proxy groups. Most of this
support seems to be emerging from the Islamic Republic of Iran and other countries in the
Middle East. The CIA Director has recommended to the US President to place post-9/11
restrictions to counter this imminent threat.
1st December 2023: A convoy of ten trucks carrying flour for Palestinians was attacked by
the State of Israel under the pretext of the trucks being “allegedly operated by Hamas”. This
exacerbates the food crisis in Gaza, which has already cost several lives.
25th January 2024: Abd al-Rahman al-Maghrebi issues a resolution declaring the creation of
an Al Qaeda Shura Council, comprising of the heads of all Al Qaeda branches, responsible
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for considering and approving “military matters”. He launches a mobilization order for all Al
Qaeda members and fighters across the globe and asks volunteers to join the battle for the
“Holy War”.
1st March 2024: The Russian military captures all Ukrainian territory east of the Dnipro
river. As the Russian Federation begins moving its forces and Intermediate Range Ballistic
Missiles to Western Ukraine, Ukrainians flee in large numbers to different parts of Europe.
Alleged HTS, Al Qaeda and ISIS members of the International Legion join the refugees
resulting in the entry of alleged 500 ISIS members in Poland and Romania. From there, 200
travelled to Paris, 200 reached Berlin and 100 reached Brussels. 200 alleged HTS fighters
reach Liverpool while 300 alleged Al Qaeda fighters remain.
15th May 2024: Indian elections result in the election of Narendra Modi as Prime Minister for
another five years. Promising rapid development in the economy, he declares support for the
global war on terror, hinting at possible new Indian military operations in Kashmir.
31st May 2024: Remaining Al Qaeda members join forces with Chechen battalions in the
International Legion to declare the re-creation of the Caucasus Emirate, a group which was
earlier involved in the Second Chechen War to conquer the Russian republics of Chechnya
and Dagestan but had died down by 2014.
2nd August 2024: The United Nations Security Council holds a meeting to discuss the global
rise in terrorist activities in Africa and Asia. The Analytical Support and Sanctions
Monitoring Team for terrorist activities by the Al Qaeda, the Islamic State and the Taliban
publishes its report to the UNSC declaring increased violations of asset freezes imposed upon
Al Qaeda affiliates by “certain member states”. It was unable to declare the names of the
member states due to certain procedural issues raised by the United States of America and the
People’s Republic of China.
18th September 2024: The Al Shabaab begins a rapid offensive against Somali forces and
captures the Jowhar province. The offensive indicates the usage of Iranian weapons such as
main battle tanks and the Fateh-110 Tactical Ballistic Missile Systems. There is no
information as to how these Iranian weapons reached Al-Shabaab.
20th September 2024: Hamas and PIJ forces occupy Ashkelon and Ashdod as Israel begins a
carpet-bombing campaign against civilian targets, resulting in 5000 Palestinian deaths.
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5th November 2024: Backlash against President Biden for mishandling of the economy and
irresponsibility with reference to handling the US response to the Israel-Hamas conflict as
well as global terrorism, ultimately culminates in the replacement of President Joe Biden by
Donald J. Trump in the Presidential Elections. In his Presidential Address, Trump declares, “I
will support our allies in Israel and make sure to erase Al Qaeda and ISIS from the face of the
Earth. My capable people in the CIA and the Pentagon have handed me intelligence about
sporadic terrorist activities in France, Germany and the United Kingdom. And we will defeat
them!”
1st February 2025: Popularity for Hamas rises among Palestinians by 80%, leading to
majority of Palestinians boycotting the Palestine Liberation Organization. Extremist members
of the PLO and representatives of Hamas meet in Moscow for negotiations to create a
potential new Palestinian Government.
4th March 2025: Three Chinese naval vessels in the South China Sea are reportedly captured
by Jemaah Islamiyah fighters, who steal the resources and arms being carried by the naval
vessels. As to why the vessels were carrying arms, is unknown. Following this, the People’s
Republic of China decides to deploy its Type 055 Destroyers to protect Chinese shipping in
the South China Sea. This provokes widespread condemnation by the United States of
America, Phillipines, Vietnam, Malaysia, India and Indonesia.
6th May 2025: The civil war in Myanmar reaches a boiling point as the military junta in
Myanmar gains territory against the rebels. Some of these rebel groups illegally enter India,
particularly among them being the Communist Party of Manipur.
20th August 2025: As the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) begin preparations for a large-scale
war against the coalition of Palestinian groups, Hamas and extremist leaders announce the
formation of a Palestinian Revolutionary Authority (PRA) with Ismail Haniyeh as Prime
Minister of the State of Palestine. In what the US and its allies calls a false referendum, the
Hamas win 70% of the vote in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
10th September 2025: US and British fighter jets engage in NATO operations to bomb
reinvigorated ISIS positions in Iraq and Syria. Satellites belonging to MAXAR Technologies
reveal increased strength of fighters belonging to the Al Nusra Front and the presence of
advanced missile systems belonging to fighters of the Al Nusra Front in Syria. Most of these
missile systems seem to belong to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates
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and Qatar. This serves as ground-breaking evidence that the Al Nusra Front has re-emerged
within the Syrian Arab Republic.
23rd November 2025: The Russian Federation captures Kiev and Chernihiv, resulting in the
capture of Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Russian forces escort him back to Moscow where he will
face trial for his crimes committed under Russian law. A new Government is formed under
the leadership of Dmytro Kuleba, who was earlier Foreign Minister under Zelenskyy. As
Chechen battalions led by Ramzan Kadyrov carry out their ruthless offensive against
Ukraine, the Russian Republic of Chechnya is left undefended. This results in the Caucasus
Emirate declaring war against the Russian state, asking people to join them in their “Holy
War” and capture the Russian republics of Chechnya and Dagestan. Multiple bombings take
place in Grozny and Makhachkala.
2nd February 2026: The Director of National Intelligence, the Director of the Central
Intelligence Agency (CIA), the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the
Secretary of Homeland Security present “Classified Material” to the US Senate while
publicly stating, “We should be prepared for the possibility of multiple major offensives by
the Islamic State in Europe and Al Qaeda in the Middle East, Africa and Asia”.
1st April 2026: Mexican journalist Faime Tarerra writes an explosive article in the newspaper
El Informador stating, “Over the past several days, members of the Islamic State of Iraq and
Syria (ISIS) have been seen interacting with members of the Gulf Cartel. These negotiations
hint at possible Gulf Cartel operations in the Middle East under ISIS controlled territory in
exchange for access to finances and weapons of the Gulf Cartel as well as Gulf Cartel fighters
working in concert with ISIS in Europe. Moreover, members of the Al Qaeda have been
engaging in extremely covert talks with the Sinaloa cartel leadership, primarily revolving
around access to Sinaloa cartel funds to initiate their offensive against the State of Israel.
Members of Hezbollah have been seen negotiating with the Los Zetas cartel as well, for the
smuggling of weapons to Hezbollah forces in Iraq and Syria. All evidence points to a
potential ruthless conflict between rival drug groups due to their association with several
terror groups.
5th April 2026: Faime Tarerra is shot by Mexican police under the pretext of his refusal to
cooperate with the police in his arrest for allegedly “peddling drugs for the Gulf Cartel”.
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8th April 2026: As Mogadishu falls, Somalia falls and becomes territory of the Al Shabaab.
As a result, Somalia becomes the first state to fall to Al Qaeda terrorists.
13th August 2026: Under pressure to react to increasing Russian and Chinese influence over
the Taliban, Donald J. Trump announces a Mission by Secretary of State Nikki Haley to the
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The main aim of the Mission is to begin negotiations with
Taliban officials to open Afghanistan up to economic investment from US companies and
possible membership of the United Nations, provided the Government introduces democratic
reforms.
18th October 2026: After a fierce battle between the Hamas coalition forces and the State of
Israel, the IDF re-captures Ashkelon and Ashdod, resulting in the death of 2000 Hamas
fighters and 400 forces of the PIJ. As IDF forces begin infiltrating into Gaza, they encounter
strong counter-offensives launched by Al Qaeda fighters. The Israeli navy destroys two naval
vessels in the Mediterranean Sea, allegedly comprising fighters from the Al Qaeda. MAXAR
Technologies issues images from its satellites which indicate increasing movement of fighters
belonging to the Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) from Southern Yemen to Egypt
and from Egypt into Gaza. The Government of Egypt has given no explanation as to why Al
Qaeda fighters have been able to smoothly move through its territory.
3rd November 2026: Due to Trump’s harsh stand against terrorism, 60% of Americans turn
out to vote in the US mid-term elections, resulting in the victory of Republican Party
candidates and a straight Republican majority in both the House of Representatives and the
Senate. Credible danger arises over the possibility of the formation of a one-party State in the
US.
6th November 2026: With authorization from the US Congress, the Trump administration
launches multiple bombardment attacks over Gaza, dealing a significant blow to the Palestine
Islamic Jihad (PIJ), almost decimating the entirety of its organization and allowing Israel to
begin significant counter-measures against Hamas and Al Qaeda attacks.
23rd November 2026: Multiple suicide bombings take place in the Louvre Museum, the
Versailles Palace and the Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris. While minor damage has been done
to the buildings, the bombings result in 500 dead. Moreover, 100 French police officers die in
gunfights and dagger duels with what the DGSI (General Directorate for Internal Security for
France) has called, ISIS combatants and lower-level members of the Gulf Cartel (who entered
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using fake passports and identification). Similar shootings and bombings take place in the
Brandenburg Gate and the Memorial to the Murdered Jews in Europe, all perpetrated by ISIS
fighters. The suicide bombers in both countries used RDX explosive-laden belts tucked under
their clothes, making it impossible for hand-held metal detectors to detect them. In a Joint
meeting between the CIA, the DGSI, the BfV (Federal Office for the Protection of the
Constitution of Germany) and the MI5 (Security Service of the UK), the MI5 shares credible
intelligence regarding the positioning of 200 ISIS sleeper cells and 400 ISIS active members
in the UK, France and Germany.
1st January 2027: ISIS Caliph Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi declares in an audio message
to all ISIS fighters the beginning of a guerilla war against the “Western capitalists and
imperialists” and create a new Islamic State. He also demands that all fighters “evolve and
destroy those revisionists who seek to exploit the case for Jihadi-Salafi Islam”. This is
followed by attacks by the Jemaah Islamiyah against police authorities in Singapore,
Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. The Governments of the Philippines and Indonesia
accuse the People’s Republic of China of funding and arming the Jemaah Islamiyah to create
instability within the ASEAN (Association of South-East Nations) countries and justify
increased Chinese involvement in the South China Sea. Defeated Jemaah Islamiyah fighters
are seen surrendering QCG-171 Submachine Guns and RPG-28 Klyukva rocket launchers.
13th March 2027: The Boko Haram and the Islamic State-West Africa begin a joint offensive
against Nigerian forces resulting in the capture of the Yobe State as well as Borno State in
Nigeria. With financing from the Gulf Cartel, the Boko Haram has been able to acquire
advanced weapons systems including M-60 Patton Main Battle Tanks and Ratel Infantry
Fighting Vehicles as well as BM-21 Grad Multiple Launch Rocket Systems and T-55 Firtina
155 mm Self Propelled Howitzers which had earlier been used in the Libyan civil war.
3rd April 2027: Due to the rapidly dangerous trend of terrorism in the world, stock markets
take a massive hit and an economic recession begins globally. The failure of the Government
of India to tackle the economic crisis in the country result in Naxalite groups gaining
increased support among locals in Chhattisgarh, Bihar and West Bengal. The Research and
Analysis Wing (RAW) advises the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) to stop the inflow of
refugees from Myanmar, due to an increase in Chinese arms smuggling through the IndiaMyanmar border. RAW also publishes a report providing evidence of a possible coalition
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being formed between multiple Naxalite groups and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
(ISIL).
15th August 2027: In what is seen as a surprise attack, fighters from the Balochistan
Liberation Army (BLA) launch a major offensive against Pakistani forces, resulting in the
death of 200 Pakistani soldiers. This leads to immediate activation of fighters of the Lashkare-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, the Harkat al-Mujahideen, the Al Badr (Jammu and Kashmir)
who declare their allegiance to the Al Qaeda and use the political and economic instability in
Pakistan to raid the Pakistani Air Force’s Minhas Air Base and acquire three plutonium cores.
The reality of the possible use of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) by terrorist groups
soon begins to dawn upon the US and its allies.
5th October 2027: ISIS fighters clash with police forces in Germany, France and Northern
Ireland, resulting in the deaths of 200 casualties for the French police, 50 casualties for the
German police, 200 casualties for British police in Northern Ireland and 100 casualties for
Belgian police. This results in an excessive level of anger among Europeans who see the rise
of Islamic terrorism as the greatest threat in the world and a dangerous counter to European
culture and sanctity.
15th November 2027: Despite the Taliban and the US coming to terms to ensure Taliban
membership in the United Nations, the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of
China stall the process since they insist upon the representation of the Palestinian
Revolutionary Authority (PRA) as the legitimate authority representing Palestinians in the
United Nations. To the shock of the American public, Donald Trump and the Republican
Party pass a law removing the designation of Hamas as “Foreign Terrorist Organization” and
replaces it with a new designation “Foreign Extremist Armed Group with alleged potential
links to Certain Terrorist Activities”. Acting under these powers, President Trump sends a
delegation from the US State Department to Moscow to engage in negotiations with
representatives from the PRA, the Russian Federation, the People’s Republic of China and
the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
31st December 2027: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports to the United
Nations Security Council (UNSC) that Iran’s sudden access to plutonium has pushed its
nuclear program ahead by several months. According to the IAEA, Iran is only three years
away from making a nuclear bomb capable of being carried by its Fateh-110 Tactical
Ballistic Missile Systems. Moreover, despite the global economic recession, Iran announces
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major investments to begin building its first Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM)
system.
3rd February 2028: The Caucasus Emirate captures Urus Martan and Shali in Chechnya and
Kizilyurt in Dagestan, destroying all resistance from the Russian military and declare active
preparations for a major offensive into Grozny. As resistance to the Kremlin rises due to its
mishandling of the economy, ruthless Western sanctions and Russian involvement in
Ukraine, hundreds of people travel from different parts of the Russian Federation to the
Russian republics of Chechnya and Dagestan to fight alongside the Caucasus Emirate. In a
public declaration, the Caucasus Emirate declares its allegiance to Al Qaeda and its Emir Abd
al-Rahman al-Maghrebi.
13th May 2028: As a last attempt to save Donald Trump’s Presidency and the Republican
Party, members of the Republican Party in the House of Representatives and the Senate pass
a bill to amend the provisions of the Banking Secrecy Act and other banking regulations
which make it easier for banks based in the US to conduct transactions and transfers of
payments with certain entities that might have been flagged as “Suspicious Activities”. This
results in a significant increase in financial transactions and banking activities, that helps to
improve the economy and provide the US Government a certain temporary relief from the
ongoing recession.
26th August 2028: In what is seen as the largest cyberattack against the United States of
America, websites, digital records and other mechanisms of the US Treasury Department and
the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) are hacked for a period of five hours by the
Islamic State. A thorough analysis by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the digital
footprint originates from the Diplomatic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) and the
Russian Federation.
5th September 2028: Nigerian airstrikes temporarily slow down the Boko Haram but due to
the economic strain caused by the recession, Nigerian forces start to run out of weapons and
ammunition. Boko Haram and Islamic State-West Africa fighters declare their intention to
destroy the Government of Nigeria and openly “militarily challenge the illegitimate Al Qaeda
regime in Somalia”.
20th October 2028: In what is seen as a coordinated attack by the Government of India,
forces belonging to Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, the Harkat al-Mujahideen and the
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Al Badr (Jammu and Kashmir) begin attacking Indian security forces in Sansad and Srinagar
and all Naxalite factions merge with the Communist Party of India (Maoist) and the
Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) to form the Supreme Maoist Party of India
(SMPI). The SMPI begins attacking police stations in Bhilai (in Chattisgarh), Nandigram (in
West Bengal), Chapra (in Bihar) and Khammam (in Telangana), resulting in 500 casualties in
the Indian police forces. Investigations by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) find that
SMPI fighters are armed with QJY-201 general purpose machine guns and several other
weapons used by the People’s Liberation Army of the People’s Republic of China. At the
same time, Indian forces in Manipur and Assam, are ambushed by fighters from the United
Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), the People’s Liberation Army of Manipur, the Maoist
Communist Party of Manipur which, according to the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW),
are allegedly receiving financial and military support from the People’s Republic of China.
31st October 2028: Acting on the threat of “imminent” terrorist acts by ISIS against US cities
as suggested by the National Terrorism Advisory System developed by the Department of
Homeland Security, President Donald J. Trump imposes a State of Emergency in the United
States of America. The US House of Representatives and the Senate pass a resolution to
amend the Presidential Election Act of 1845 and postpone the US Presidential elections
indefinitely till “the threat of terrorism against the United States is dealt with effectively”.
25th December 2028: President Trump announces the signing of the Christmas Day Accords.
According to the Accords, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan will be represented in the
United Nations by the Taliban and thus be approved by the United Nations Credentials
Committee. The State of Palestine will be represented by a pro-peace faction of the
Palestinian Revolutionary Authority (PRA) and Palestine will continue to hold an observer
status in the United Nations but will continue to be led by Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.
President Trump also calls upon the State of Israel to declare a ceasefire so as to focus on
“joint efforts to counter the actual threat- Al Qaeda”.
31st January 2029: In a rare occurrence, Alexander Bortnikov (Director of the FSB- Federal
Security Service of the Russian Federation) and Sergey Naryshkin (Director of the SVRForeign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation) hold a Joint Press Conference. Here,
they display what they call “classified Treasury Department documents” as well as bank
statements pursued by the FSB and SVR which detail elaborate transactions from multiple
State department and Treasury department entities as well as American non-state entities with
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individuals or groups associated with the Al Qaeda. This includes a $500 million payment to
the Caucasus Emirate, thus labelling these transactions as “irrefutable evidence” of American
sponsoring of global terrorism. Under the advice of both his military and his National
Security Council, President Vladimir Putin declares a State of Emergency in the Russian
Federation.
15th March 2029: Russian police forces carry out a raid in the offices of 000 HSBC Bank
(RR) and find incriminating documents pointing to money laundering taking place from its
American branch to the Caucasus Emirate via the Sinaloa Cartel.
6th May 2029: The United Nations Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (UN
CTED) creates history by releasing a 1000-page report on the current situation of terrorism in
the world and presenting it before the United Nations Security Council Counter-Terrorism
Committee (UNSC-CTC). It highlights the re-emergence of the Al Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula (AQAP), the Al Nusra Front and multiple Al Qaeda affiliates across the Middle
East. Moreover, there is evidence of financial statements linking payments from state and
non-state entities in Western countries as well as several in the Middle East which can be
linked to Al Qaeda and ISIS affiliates. The Report highlights multiple ISIS positions set up in
France, Germany, Belgium and the United Kingdom. It even brings out the connection
between the Gulf Cartel and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and the alliance formed
between the Sinaloa Cartel and the Al Qaeda, resulting in Al Qaeda and ISIS activities
against the Government of Mexico. Moreover, it points out that by using the loopholes in the
amendment to the Banking Secrecy Act in the US along with similar financial laws across the
European Union, extreme money laundering schemes have been pursued by banks such as
HSBC, JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Standard Chartered Bank, Deutsche Bank and
Bank of New York Mellon which have allegedly laundered money for the Al Qaeda, ISIS,
Chinese state entities, the Hamas, the Hezbollah and entities belonging to the Iran’s Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). It has issued warning regarding possible Houthi rebel
control over the Red Sea as well as Jemaah Islamiyah attempts to initiate conflict between
ASEAN member states and the People’s Republic of China. It warns all European countries
of the rise of far-right extremist groups as a counter to ISIS fighters carrying out attacks.
7th July 2029: Viewing the scaling down of Russian troops in the Ukraine offensive due to
the re-focusing of the Russian troops towards defending Chechnya and Dagestan against the
Caucasus Emirate, NATO forces belonging to Germany, France and the United Kingdom
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withdraw 800 forces of the Azov Battalion from Ukraine, with 300 being transferred to
Germany, 300 to the United Kingdom and 200 to France. This, according to them, is to “train
advanced Azov Battalion forces in NATO combat modes so as to ensure a stiff offensive
against the Russian Federation in captured Ukrainian territory”.
25th September 2029: On the recommendation of the Prime Minister and the Council of
Ministers as well as the approval of the Lok Sabha, President Nitish Kumar declares a
National Emergency in India to provide the Government of India the powers it needs to
effectively combat the threat posed by Pakistani insurgent groups in Kashmir and the
Supreme Maoist Party of India (SMPI).
18th October 2029: The United Nations Credentials Committee and the United Nations
General Assembly vote to allow the representation of Palestine by the Palestinian
Revolutionary Authority as well as allow for membership of the Islamic Emirate of
Afghanistan which is to be represented by the Taliban.
20th December 2029: The State of Israel captures Beit Lahia, Jabalia and Wahsh in the Gaza
Strip and begins ruthlessly bombarding Gaza to destroy Hamas tunnel infrastructure, dealing
excessive damage to Hamas positions. Al Qaeda in response, carries out suicide bombings in
Tel Aviv, Ashdod and Holon. Moreover, responding to the request for military assistance
from Hamas, Hezbollah launches a relentless rocket attack campaign against Israeli cities as a
warning signal.
1st January 2030: The Syrian Arab Republic uncovers Al Nusra Front fighters who,
according to them, had been developing chemical weapons, including sarin gas. According to
the Syrian authorities, these Al Nusra Front members were working in concert with the
Hayyat Tahrir al Sham in order to orchestrate a false-flag chemical attack by the Syrian and
Russian Governments in remaining rebel-held territories in Syria. During the interrogation
process, the fighters reveal that they were conducting the operations under the direction of
Mike Pomepo, former Secretary of State and current Deputy Director of Operations (DDA)
for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
5th February 2030: The AfD party in Germany declares a militarism manifesto, stating that
they will resort to military means to “destroy Islamic terrorism in all its shape and form”.
Pictures from the Nazi Party in the 1940s are relived as black shirt squads march the street of
Berlin, displaying the Nazi Swastika and symbols such as the Wolfsangel, the Black Sun and
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the SS runes. They clash against members of the Muslim community, resulting in the death of
100 Muslims. Neo-Nazi forces rise in France, resulting in clashes between Neo Nazi forces
and ISIS sympathizers. Moreover, the development of Neo-Nazism in the United Kingdom
results in the revival of the Continuity Irish Republican Army (Continuity IRA) and the New
Irish Republican Army (New IRA) who begin suicide bombings in Birmingham, Manchester
and Liverpool to target what they call “ISIS sleeper cells”. These attacks result in the death of
500 civilians including 300 Muslims and 50 ISIS fighters.
3rd March 2030: Intense shootings take place between ISIS and Al Qaeda fighters in
Guadalajara and Monterrey acting on behalf of the Gulf Cartel and the Sinaloa Cartel
respectively. Sinaloa cartel members begin to gain access to opium fields in the Islamic
Emirate of Afghanistan which are allegedly being run by Taliban officials.
15th April 2030: The Taliban faces a string of attacks by the Islamic State-Khorasan Province
(ISIS-K). Experts from the UN CTED arrive in the country and publish a report stating,
“Contrary to public messaging, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan continues to harbour
active Al Qaeda terror training camps which engage in conflict with ISIS-K fighters”.
30th April 2030: The Telegraph publishes an article detailing negotiations between the
remaining Azov Battalion forces, members of the Continuity IRA and New IRA as well as
the AfD and newly created French and Belgian Neo-Nazi organizations jointly called the “SS
Charlemagne” (named after the 33rd Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS Charlemagne) with
members of the allegedly Al Qaeda aligned HTS. They reportedly decided to join forces to
defeat the ISIS in Europe, provided that the Al Qaeda not enter France, Germany, the United
Kingdom or Belgium when Fascist Governments are formed in the respective countries.
2nd May 2030: Thousands of people, frustrated by the reaction of the European Union and
their respective governments to the spectre of Islamic terrorism, begin to join the New IRA
and Continuity IRA in the UK, the AfD in Germany and the SS Charlemagne in France and
Belgium.
10th May 2030: Jemaah Islamiyah fighters occupy Palawan and Mindoro in the Philippines
and declare their intention to occupy the disputed Spratly Islands. In addition to this, Jemaah
Islamiyah bombings in Singapore and Vietnam alert the People’s Liberation Army Navy
which gains a significant presence in the South China Sea. As American naval vessels patrol
the South China Sea, ASEAN braces for a possible military conflict in the South China Sea.
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30th May 2030: The IAEA reports that the Islamic Republic of Iran is three weeks away from
possessing a nuclear warhead which can be carried by an inter-continental ballistic missile
(ICBM). It notifies the United Nations Security Council about nuclear detection in Lebanon,
pointing to possible possession of a certain number of plutonium cores by the Hezbollah.
31st May 2030: Al Qaeda Emir Abd al-Rahman al-Maghrebi appears on live television where
he delivers an address declaring the creation of the Global Axis of Terrorism, an international
coalition of terror organizations comprising of: the Al Qaeda, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad
(PIJ), the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), the Al Shabaab, the Al Qaeda
in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Jemaah Islamiyah,
the Al Nusra Front, the Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Harkat al-Mujahideen, Al Badr
(Jammu and Kashmir), the Caucasus Emirate, the AfD (Alternative for Germany) party, the
Continuity Irish Republican Army (Continuity IRA), the New Irish Republican Army (New
IRA), and the SS Charlemagne. He declares the beginning of the “Great Holy War where
Islamic revisionists and democratic debauchery will come to an end and where the strongest
shall prevail”.
Major Parties involved in the Conflict
The Russian Federation: The First Chechen war, having been a struggle for independence
for the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, spanned over a period of two years (1994 -1996).
Despite Russia’s considerable military advantages, Chechen fighters recaptured Grozny in
1996. This led to Russian President Boris Yeltsin announcing a cease fire with the Chechens
in 1996 and ultimately, the culmination of a peace treaty in 1997. However, the issue wasn’t
yet resolved. Soon began the Second Chechen War which lasted from August 1999 to April
2009. The Chechen capital Grozny was captured by the Russian military and pro-Russian
Chechen paramilitary forces. However, Russia’s establishment of direct rule over Chechnya
in May, 2000, was faced by Chechen military resistance. Eventually, in June 2009, Akhmed
Zakayev, Prime Minister of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria's government, terminated
armed resistance against the Chechen police force. This marked the end of the Second
Chechen War, however, it led to severe casualties. The Russian Federation’s involvement in
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1999 war in Dagestan ultimately culminated into a victory for Russia and the Republic of
Dagestan. Thus, began the retreat of the Chechen based Islamic International Peacekeeping
Brigade (IIPB).
The Caucasus Emirate (CE), a Sunni nationalist organization established in October 2007,
was formed to create an independent North Caucasus region ruled under Shariah. It was
founded when the last president of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria disbanded the group in
order to create an overarching organization that incorporated all the militant groups in the
North Caucasus. The Caucasus Emirate has maintained strong ties with Al Qaeda and the
Taliban. It is responsible for many high-profile attacks, including the 2010 Moscow metro
bombings, 2011 Domodedovo Airport attack, and the 2009 bombing of the Ingush president’s
motorcade.
On the request of Bashar al-Assad’s Government in Syria, Russia launched a military
intervention in Syria on the 30th of September 2015, to support the Syrian Government
against rebel forces as well as the Islamic State and the Al-Qaeda. Russian special operations
forces, military advisors and private military contractors, the Wagner group were deployed to
back up the Assad Government. Russia had also provided Assad with diplomatic cover and
funded the Syrian armed forces with billions of dollars of arms and equipment. In December
2017, the permanent deployment of Russian troops in Syria was announced by Putin’s
government. Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, in a televised interview in October 2015,
declared Russia’s objective in Syria as “stabilizing the legitimate power in Syria and
creating the conditions of political compromise.”
On the 26th of February 2022, the Head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov,
announced the deployment of Chechen military forces to Ukraine. He declared that Vladimir
Putin “took the right decision and we will carry out his orders under any
circumstances.” A video was released by the Russian state media outlet RT which
showcased a gathering of 12,000 Chechen soldiers in Grozny, armed for war. The Times
published on the 3rd of March that a squadron of Chechen soldiers infiltrated Kyiv with the
aim of assassinating Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. By late June, 2022, the
creation of 4 battalions, “North – Akhmath”, “South-Akhmat”, “East-Akhmath” and “WestAkhmath”, consisting of ethnic Chechens was announced by Kadyrov, which would be sent
to fight in Ukraine. The announcement of the dispatch of two Chechen battalion to Ukraine
and the release of a video showing their departure was made by Kadyrov amidst the Russian
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retreat from Kharkiv Oblast. It was also reported by a news agency that the presence of
Chechen battalions in Ukraine eventually resulted in the destructive Russo-Ukrainian
conflict.
When the United States of America initially attempted to admit the Taliban into the United
Nations as the legitimate representative of Afghanistan, the Russian Federation opposed it,
urging for the representation of the Palestinian Revolutionary Authority (PRA) as the
legitimate authority representing Palestinians in the United Nations.
The Russian Federation acted as the mediator of the negotiations between Hamas and
Fatah, a distinguished Palestinian political party and the leading faction within the Palestinian
Liberation Organization (PLO).
On 31st January 2029, in a Joint Press Conference Alexander Bortnikov and Sergey
Naryshkin accused the United States of America of financing the Al Qaeda and its affiliated
Caucasus Emirate and thus, playing a role in sponsoring global terrorism.
United States of America: On September 11th 2001, the United States of America suffered
one of the deadliest and most destructive terror attacks to have ever been perpetrated against
any State. It involved a series of attacks on four airplanes after hijacking them and crashing
them into key American buildings, committed by some 19 individuals who claimed to be
associated with the most dangerous and ruthless terrorist organization of the world, AlQaeda. The attack was carried out by the militants with the aim of “Jihad” and to “destroy
the American Government”. The attacks resulted in the death of 2,977 people, injured
thousands more and led to substantial long term health consequences while causing
infrastructural and property damage worth 10 billion dollars. The September 11 attacks also
led to the United States of America engaging in conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. The
mastermind behind the attacks was Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the former Head of
Propaganda for Al-Qaeda.
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To retaliate for the September 11 attacks, the US formed an international military
coalition and launched an attack against the Taliban in Afghanistan, who were allegedly
providing safe haven to the Al Qaeda, thus declaring Operation Enduring Freedom as a part
of the Global War on Terror. This continued for twenty long years, thus becoming the longest
war in the military history of the
United States. Following the
American attack, Osama Bin
Laden, the first Emir of AlQaeda, escaped and relocated to
Pakistan, where he was allegedly
hunted and killed by forces
belonging to the Government of
the United States of America.
Following the temporary expulsion of Taliban and Al Qaeda forces from key Afghan
provinces, the US-led coalition decided to stay in Afghanistan and formed a security mission
– the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), established by United Nations
Security Council Resolution 1386 pursuant to the Bonn Agreement. Their goal was to create
a new democratic authority in Afghanistan and thus, prevent the Taliban from gaining power.
The War killed approximately 1,76,000-2,12,000+ people which included 46,319 civilians.
The invasion of Iraq by the United States led coalition consisting of the United Kingdom
of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Australia and Poland, known as the Iraq War, began in
2003 and continued till 2011. This led to the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s Ba’athist
government. Even though, the US troops were officially withdrawn in 2011, the United
States became re-involved in the conflict, heading a new coalition. Saddam Hussein’s
government collapsed and he was captured during Operation Red Dawn in December,
2003. This however acted as a catalyst for the formation and spread of the Islamic State in
Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), who rapidly began taking over the cities of Mosul and
Tikrit, in early June, 2014. The Al-Qaeda breakaway group announced the formation of an
Islamic state on 29th June, 2014. A civil war between ISIL and the central government
continued for the next three years.
A secret paper signed by the US secretary of State was released in December 2009
which stated “Saudi Arabia remains a critical financial support base for al-Qaeda, the
Taliban, Lashkar-e-Taiba and other terrorist groups”.
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During the Syrian Civil War, the United States carried out a series of airstrikes which
included the April 2017 Shayrat missile strike and the April 2018 missile strikes. This was
carried out in collaboration with the United Kingdom and France against multiple
government sites in Syria. The Syrian government called the airstrikes a violation of
international law. The United States claimed some attacks to be accidental, such as the
September 2016 Deir ez- Zor air raid, which killed 50 Syrian army and allied troops.
The United States Africa Command (USAFRICOM, U.S. AFRICOM and AFRICOM)
operates over all of Africa except Egypt. It is responsible for US military operations,
increasing cooperation on maritime and border security, military professionalization, counter
terrorism efforts Boko Haram and ISIS- West Africa, defence trade and strengthening
governance of the security center. Significant sales have been made by the United States to
Nigeria under the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) system. This also includes the 2017 sale of
12 A-29 Super Tucano aircraft worth 497 million dollars to support Nigerian military
operations against Boko Haran and ISIS- West Africa. Also, the United States have roughly
400 troops in Somalia who were closely in union with African Union troops.
The outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, 2023 immediately drew in the United States of
America who began to send military aid to Israel. US officials have on record stated that
Israel would receive “whatever it needs” in its offensive against the Hamas ruled Gaza Strip.
On 20th October, President Biden also declared his ask for 14 billion dollars in additional aid
to the Congress.
On 23rd November 2023, CIA Director William Burns testified to the US House of
Representatives that the US-led Five Eyes organization had begun recording suspicious
levels of activity in what were previously “deactivated Al Qaeda communication
channels”. Moreover, they were able to find evidence of a massive increase in financial
transactions and donations being provided by individuals from the Middle East, especially
from the Islamic Republic of Iran and even within the United States of America itself.
In 2024, President Donald Trump made it clear to the world that the US Government
was in possession of information pointing to terrorist activities in France, Germany and
the United Kingdom. In early 2026, the Director of the CIA, the Director of the FBI and the
Secretary of Homeland Security present “Classified material” to the US senate and declare
that they should be ready and armed for any and all offensives by the ISIS and al-Qaeda in
their territories in the Middle East and Africa.
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A dramatic turn of events unfolded in the latter half of 2026 when President Trump
announced the formation of a Mission by Secretary of State Nikki Haley who was to be sent
to Afghanistan to negotiate with the Taliban so as to ensure the representation of the
Taliban Government in the United Nations. This was part of Trump’s wider goal of accessing
Afghanistan’s “trillion dollar worth” mineral deposits of gold, copper, lithium, cobalt and
other essential minerals as well as providing contracts to American mining companies to
mine these mineral fields in Afghanistan so as to facilitate a rapid growth in employment and
economic growth.
Ultimately, the United States of America agreed to ensure the representation of the Islamic
Emirate of Afghanistan in the United Nations in exchange for representation of the State of
Palestine by a pro-peace faction of the Palestinian Revolutionary Authority (PRA) to be led
by Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. This was only possible since the Trump Administration,
aided by swift Republican majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate,
was able to get the “Hamas Designation Act of 2027” passed, thus removing the designation
of Hamas as “Foreign Terrorist Organization” and replacing it with a new designation
“Foreign Extremist Armed Group with alleged potential links to Certain Terrorist Activities”.
This allowed US State Department officials to enter negotiations with representatives from
Hamas.
Moreover, the amendments made to the Banking Secrecy Act and other banking regulations,
which make it easier for banks based in the US to conduct transactions and transfers of
payments with certain entities that might have been flagged as “Suspicious Activities”, may
have helped improve the US economy and provide the US Government a certain temporary
relief from the ongoing recession but did so at the behest of removing the transparency
governing international transactions. This itself could serve as a potential means of allowing
seamless financial transactions with extremist and terror organizations without much
accountability or checks and balances.
Acting on the threat of “imminent” terrorist acts by ISIS against US cities as suggested by the
National Terrorism Advisory System developed by the Department of Homeland Security,
President Donald J. Trump imposed a State of Emergency in the United States of America in
2028. The US House of Representatives and the Senate passed a resolution to amend the
Presidential Election Act of 1845 and postpone the US Presidential elections indefinitely till
“the threat of terrorism against the United States is dealt with effectively”.
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The Republic of India: India has had a long history with terrorism, facing notable terrorist
attacks such as, the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai, which is viewed as one of the most dangerous
attacks ever launched by a terrorist organization. Jammu and Kashmir, specifically
Kashmir, located in the northern part of India, shares its borders with the Islamic Republic of
Pakistan, a nation which is alleged to have possessed links with several extremist
organizations, including certain armed terror outfits. One of these, Lashkar-e-Taiba, is a
Pakistan based militant Islamist Salafi jihadist organization. Being Pakistan’s “most
powerful jihadi group”, their main objective is to merge the whole of Kashmir with
Pakistan. This has sparked numerous conflicts between India and the so-called “the Army of
the Good”, Lashkar-e-Taiba. Along with this, the two other major militant groups active in
Kashmir include the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen and Hizbul Mujahideen. All these groups have
been accused of receiving their financing and military aid from the Pakistani
government and its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
For the past few years, the Republic of India has been engaged in an ongoing conflict
between Maoist groups known as Naxalites or Naxals, communists supporting the
Maoist ideologies which had emerged from North Bengal during the 1970s. This is
known as the Naxalite-Maoist Insurgency, spreading over 70 districts, across 10 states in two
coal-rich, remote, forested hilly areas surrounding the Dandakaranya-Chhattisgarh-Odisha
region and the tri-junction area of Jharkhand-Bihar-West Bengal. It is estimated that
thousands of people have been killed in the conflict since 1996.
The North-East Insurgency in India refers to a series of militant attacks launched by
several separatist militant groups operating in some of India’s north-eastern states such
as the Coordination Committee (CorCOM), the United National Liberation Front of Western
South-East Asia (UNLFA) and All Muslim United Liberation Forum of Assam (AMULFA)
as well as certain communist and Maoist groups. These operate mainly in northeastern India
consisting of the Seven Sister States- Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh,
Mizoram, Nagaland and Manipur. However, insurgency in the region has decreased rapidly,
with a 70% reduction in insurgency incidents and an 80% reduction in civilian deaths in 2019
compared to 2013.
According to Indian government officials, the People’s Republic of China has been
allegedly aiding and funding active terror groups and extremist organization in
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northeast India along the India-Myanmar border. This has caused significant casualties in
the region and has been a long-standing issue between the two countries.
India, in 2027, faced an economic crisis which resulted in the re-emergence of and rapid
spread of the Naxalite movement across what was previously referred to as the “Red
Corridor”. In the same year, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) advised the Prime
Minister’s Office (PMO) to take measures to stop the inflow of Rohingya and other refugees
from Myanmar, due to an alleged “increase in Chinese arms smuggling through the
India-Myanmar border.” Moreover, by reviewing certain active ISIL communication
channels in Kerala, as well as engaging with the Russian SVR analysts working in Syria,
RAW analysts came to the conclusion that a possible coalition has formed between
multiple Naxalite groups and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
On 20th October 2028, Indian security forces in Jammu and Kashmir faced major coordinated
attacks by Pakistan-based insurgent groups while paramilitary and police forces operating in
the “Red Corridor Regions” faced numerous attacks by Naxalite groups, which have now
merged together to fight against the Indian State, the merger of the multiple Naxalite
factions now being called the “Supreme Maoist Party of India (SMPI)”. Investigations by
the CBI and RAW point to the potentiality of these Naxalite factions receiving their financial
and military support from the People’s Republic of China.
By late 2029, a national emergency was declared in India by President Nitish Kumar because
of the threat posed by the Pakistani Insurgent Groups in Kashmir and the Supreme Maoist
Party of India (SMPI). Due to the declaration of the Emergency, the Lok Sabha was
immediately dissolved and the Rajya Sabha has now taken the responsibilities of the central
legislature.
The State of Israel: The conflict between Israel and Hamas was sparked primarily because
of tensions between Israel and factions of Palestinians that believed in an armed insurgency
against Israel due to Israeli activities in Occupied Palestinian Territories. In the 2006
Palestinian legislative election, Hamas, an Islamist militant group, came into power and a
battle was followed between it and Fatah, in the Gaza Strip. This further escalated the
tensions with Israel as Hamas took over the governance of Gaza. Israel then, imposed a
blockade in Gaza which significantly damaged Gaza’s economy and security concerns. Since
then, Israel has been engaged in several hostilities with Hamas and other Palestinian militant
groups in Gaza such as the following- the 2008-2009, 2012, 2014 and the 2021 conflicts.
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Even though Hamas has been recognized as a “terrorist organization” by many nations, in
2018 the United Nations was unable to condemn Hamas for “acts of terror” as there were 58
votes against, 32 abstentions and 16 non-votes. Tensions between Israel and Hamas broke out
into all-out war when Hamas militants launched a surprise attack on the southern part of
Israel from the Gaza Strip on the 7th of October 2023. After causing temporary setbacks to
Hamas militants, Israel embarked on an intensive aerial bombardment of the Gaza Strip
which was followed by a large-scale Israeli ground invasion which started on 27th October,
2023.
The humanitarian situation in Gaza is recognized as a “crisis” and a “catastrophe”. On 6th
October 2023, Commissioner of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine
Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) Philippe Lazzarini said, “the scale and speed of the
unfolding humanitarian crisis is bone-chilling”. On the day of the attack, it was reported that
1,139 Israelis and foreign nationals, including 764 civilians, were killed, and 248 persons
taken hostage during the initial attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip.
On the 15th of October 2023 an operation titled the “Swords of Iron” was undertaken by the
Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) which involved bombardment of Hamas positions in the Gaza
Strip and airstrikes. Prime Minister Netanyahu declared “We will not stop until every last
Hamas militant is killed and each inch of Gaza belongs to us”.
In 2025, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) began preparations for a large-scale war
against the coalition of Palestinian groups while Hamas and extremist leaders of other
smaller Palestinian factions announced the formation of a Palestinian Revolutionary
Authority (PRA) with Ismail Haniyeh as Prime Minister of the State of Palestine. The Hamas
won 70% of the vote on a referendum regarding its rule in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank,
which was immediately followed by condemnation from the United States of America, Israel
and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). In late 2026, the Israeli Defense Forces
(IDF) engaged in hostilities with the Hamas coalition forces and Al-Qaeda fighters, who
seem to have gained ground in the Gaza Strip, sparking fears of the spread of the Al Qaeda
insurgency from the Gaza Strip to Israel and countries belonging to the Arab League.
The State of Israel condemned the Christmas Day Accords, stating in unequivocal terms that
they would never recognize the legitimacy of the “unruly Iranian Terrorist-dominated
Regime in Palestine”. In 2029, the State of Israel captured Beit Lahia, Jabalia and Wahsh in
the Gaza Strip and began ruthlessly bombarding Gaza to destroy Hamas tunnel infrastructure,
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dealing excessive damage to Hamas positions. Al Qaeda in response, carried out suicide
bombings in Tel Aviv, Ashdod, and Holon. Moreover, responding to the request for military
assistance from Hamas, Hezbollah launched a relentless rocket attack campaign against
Israeli cities, resulting in hundreds of civilian casualties from the Israeli side as well as 350
casualties for the Israel Defense Forces operating in the Israeli border with Lebanon and other
neighbouring Israeli towns.
The Republic of Iraq: The Iraq War, an armed conflict provoked by American claims of
possession of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) as well as ties with Al Qaeda, which
continued from 2003-2011, had been one of the most gruesome wars to have affected the
Middle East, with long-term repercussions. The War began with the overthrowing of the
Ba’athist government led by Saddam Hussein by the US led military coalition. However,
there was no evidence to support the claim of Iraq having acquired WMDs, in accordance
with testimony from inspectors of the United Nations. When interrogated by the FBI, Saddam
Hussein declared that Iraq did not possess any WMDs prior to the invasion by the United
States of America. The war is estimated to have resulted in 1,50,000-10,33,000 casualties,
including more than one lakh civilians. As a result of the USA’s invasion and occupation,
there occurred another war in Iraq between 2013-2017, which caused 1,55,000 deaths and
internally displaced more than 3.3 million Iraqis. From January 2004-December 2009, it was
reported in the Iraq War Logs that the conflict led to 1,09,032 violent deaths including 66,081
civilian deaths.
London's International Institute for Strategic Studies concluded in 2004 that the
occupation of Iraq had become "a potent global recruitment pretext" for Mujahideen
and that the invasion "galvanized" al-Qaeda and "perversely inspired insurgent
violence" there. The US National Intelligence Council concluded in a January 2005 report
that the war in Iraq had become a breeding ground for a new generation of terrorists. David
Low, the national intelligence officer for transnational threats, indicated that the report
concluded that the war in Iraq provided terrorists with "a training ground, a recruitment
ground, the opportunity for enhancing technical skills ... There is even, under the best
scenario, over time, the likelihood that some of the jihadists who are not killed there will, in a
sense, go home, wherever home is, and will, therefore, disperse to various other countries."
The United States led coalition officially ended its combat mission in Iraq in December
2021. However, US troops have remained in Iraq to advice, train and assist Iraqi forces
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against ISIL Insurgency and provide them with air support and military aid. Moreover, there
have been increasing calls from within the Iraqi Parliament to remove all existing US and
allied troops from Iraq.
Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shia Islamist political party and militant group, launched more than
170 attacks on US military bases and assets in Syria, Iraq and Jordan. These attacks have
resulted in dozens of US service members getting injured and death of Iraqi civilians.
Syrian Arab Republic: An ongoing multi-sided conflict involving many state-sponsored
terror grouped and non-state actors, in Syria, The Syrian Civil War began in March of 2011.
Large scale protests and pro-democracy rallies were triggered in Syria because of
dissatisfaction with Bashar al-Assad’s government. Several armed rebel groups, such as the
Free Syrian Army, started to form in the country and by mid-2012, the conflict escalated into
a full scale war. The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) became involved in the conflict in
2014, when it seized control of large tracts of territory in Eastern Syria and western Iraq. The
Al-Nusra Front, a Saladi jihadist organization, fought against the Syrian Ba’athist
government in the Syrian Civil War with the aim of establishing an Islamic state in Syria and
thus, removing president Bashar al-Assad. The Al-Nusra Front announced its support to the
Syrian opposition in the War as “imperialism” thus, threatening its Islamist goals in Syria.
The Syrian has been supported by the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Russian Federation and
Hezbollah, an allegedly Iranian financed and armed extremist group. Russia has conducted
air strikes and ground operations in Syria to quell rebel forces and hunt down militants
belonging to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State.
The civil war in Syria has been further exacerbated by the involvement of Kurdish
forces led by the People’s Defense Units (YPG) as well as the Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham
(HTS) and other rebel factions allegedly working in concert with the Al Qaeda and the
Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Moreover, there have been accusations levelled
against the United States of America, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab
Emirates, the State of Qatar, Israel, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern
Ireland and the French Republic for having allegedly financed rebel forces as well as Al
Qaeda and ISIS affiliated extremist organizations.
On 10th September 2025, American and British fighter jets engaged in NATO operations to
bomb reinvigorated ISIS positions in both Iraq and Syria. This was followed by the release of
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damning evidence by MAXAR Technologies who revealed satellite images indicating a
far higher strength of fighters belonging to the Al Nusra Front as well as the possession
of certain advanced missile systems by the Al Nusra Front which seemed to belong to
the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. The United Nations
Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (UN CTED) in its 2029 report to the
United Nations Counter-Terrorism Committee (UNSC-CTC) pointed out dangerous trends
behind the significant rise of Al Qaeda and ISIS sponsored extremist faction armed activities
and tensions in Central and Southern Syria.
In 2030, the Syrian Government uncovered several Al Nusra Front and HTS fighters in
Aleppo who had been operating labs responsible for manufacturing chemical weapons,
including mustard gas and sarin gas. President Bashar Al-Assad immediately accused the
United States of America and the Republic of Turkiye of conspiring to destroy all “antiWestern” states in the Middle East by arming terrorist factions with Weapons of Mass
Destruction (WMDs).
Republic of Lebanon: Parts of southern Lebanon, Beirut and the eastern Bekaa Valley
region in Lebanon are under the control of Hezbollah, a Shia Islamist political party and
militant group, and this group has seized huge tracts of territory in Lebanon’s Shiite-majority
areas. Not just territorial, Lebanon has been under Hezbollah’s influence in it’s
government. In the recently hosted national elections, it was reported that Hezbollah has
occupied and maintained 13 seats in Lebanon’s 128-member Parliament. Hezbollah’s
existence in Lebanon violated not just international laws but the United Nations Security
Council’s Resolutions 1559, calling for all Lebanese militias to disband and disarm.
Hezbollah is reported to have launched 30 rockets from Lebanon towards Northern Israel,
killing factory workers in Kiryat Shmona. Hezbollah had also launched guided rockets and
artillery shells at Israeli positions in the Shebaa Farms on the 4th of October, 2023. The IsraelHezbollah conflict has resulted in hundreds of thousands Lebanese people being displaced
from their homes.
On 8th October 2023, Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah issued a Proclamation stating that its
forces were on high alert and would militarily respond if Israel attacks Hezbollah fighters in
Syria and Lebanon. Several concerning links emerged between Hezbollah and drug
trafficking as Mexican journalist Famie Tarerra published an explosive article in the
newspaper El Informador stating that there were negotiations ongoing between the senior
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leadership of the Hezbollah and the Los Zetas cartel. According to him, these negotiations
entailed the supply of the cartel’s AR-15 semi-automatic rifles, AK-47 assault rifles, hand
grenades as well as sophisticated anti-tank weapons in exchange for access to Gajar and
multiple other trafficking routes in the tri-border area of Lebanon used by the Hezbollah to
traffic drugs.
On 20th December 2029, acting on the request for military assistance from Hamas, the
Hezbollah launched a relentless rocket attack campaign against Israeli cities as a warning
signal to the State of Israel to halt any major Israeli offensive against Hamas and its affiliates.
Moreover, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that there were signs of
nuclear radiation emerging from Lebanon, specific Hezbollah controlled areas, thus pointing
to the possibility of Hezbollah possessing multiple plutonium cores.
State of Palestine: The Palestine Liberation Organization is recognized as the official
government (The Palestinian National Authority) of the de jure State of Palestine. The
PLO’s militant wings, operating from Palestine, were involved in gruesome acts of violence
against Israeli civilians. However, this was prior to the Oslo Accords, a pair of interim
agreements between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO). Even still, the
PLO did not stray from their goal and continued to engage in militant activities, especially
during the Second Intifada.
Hamas, an acronym of its official name, Harakat al-Muqawama al-Islamiya, governs parts
of the occupied Gaza Strip and is a Palestinian Sunni Islamist political and militant
group. Hamas won the Palestinian legislative election of 2006 because of its campaign
promoting a clean government without corruption, combined with affirmation of
Palestinian’s right to armed struggle against the Israeli occupation and thus, won a majority
in the Palestinian Legislative Council. Hamas has carried out several attacks against
Israeli soldiers and civilians and these include suicide bombings and even indiscriminate
rockets attacks. These have led to Hamas being accused of violation of human rights and war
crimes however, a motion at the UN to condemn Hamas was rejected in, in 2018.
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Hamas promotes Palestinian
nationalism in an Islamic context.
This has led to widespread support for
Hamas by the Palestinians and
eventually, it led to Hamas being
recognised as the official government
of Palestine in the Gaza Strip. Hamas,
in 2017, released a charter
supporting a Palestinian state within
the 1967 borders. The Charter also included non-recognition of Israel. Hamas retains the
long term objective of establishing a single state in former Mandatory Palestine.
Palestine’s West Bank has been under Israeli occupation by Israel since June 7th, 1967.
This happened when Israeli forces captured the West Bank during the Six-Day War. As of
January of 2023, the West Bank has 144 Israeli settlements. Israeli settlements are also
present in the Gaza Strip. Six settlements exist in the Gaza Strip- Kfar, Darom, Netzarim,
Morag, Eretz and Nether Hazani.
In accordance with the Christmas Day Accords, it was decided on 25th December, 2028 that
the State of Palestine will be represented in the United Nations by a pro-peace faction of the
Palestinian Revolutionary Authority (PRA) and Palestine will continue to hold an observer
status in the United Nations but will continue to be led by Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland: The United Kingdom has
remained an active and high profile partner of the United States of America in the American
War on Terror. British officials have frequently interacted with their American counterparts
regarding the global situation of terrorism and have actively supported the US both, militarily
and economically.
British forces have carried out strikes against the Houthis, in Yemen, targeting a Houthi
underground storage site as well as missile and surveillance capabilities which are used by
the Iran-aligned group against Red Sea shipping. Three strikes in the port city Hodeidah, 12
in the Yemen capital Sanaa, two in Taiz and one in Al-Bayda province were carried out by
the US-British alliance. In the January of 2019, it was reported by the Ministry of Defence
that 1,700 British airstrikes had killed or injured thousand of enemy fighters in Iraq and
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Syria. The Royal Air Force (RAF) had delivered 230 million pounds worth of humanitarian
aid too.
On the 10th of September, 2025, US and British air forces engaged in NATO operations
and bombarded ISIS positions in Iraq and Syria.
Islamic Republic of Pakistan: The Islamic Republic of Pakistan has been accused of
supporting the Afghan Taliban and its Haqqani branch in Pakistan. Pakistan allegedly
provides direct military aid and intelligence to these groups which had resulted in the
death of US soldiers, Afghan security personnel, civilians and disruptions to the workings of
the pre-Taliban government of Afghanistan, during the entirety of the US occupation of
Afghanistan as well as Indian forces operating in Kashmir. In addition to this, it is alleged to
have protected the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani from the United States of America.
The Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI), Pakistan’s intelligence agency, was alleged to have
provided financial and material assistance to the Lashkar-e-Taiba. In 2010, Interpol issued
warrants for two officers in the Pakistani army because they were allegedly involved in the
2008 Mumbai attacks.
Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan based militant Islamist Salafi jihadist group with alleged
ties to the ISI and the Pakistani government, aims at the merging of the whole of
Kashmir with Pakistan. The group has been determined in their aim and have launched
significant attacks or have been involved in attacks against India, in general, and Kashmir, in
particular, which have resulted in several casualties. Kashmir, today remains an active hub of
terror activities because of this Pakistani based militant group.
The political and economic stability in Pakistan has been a major factor behind the growth of
terrorism in the country in addition to fears that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal may be at threat
because of the presence of these extremist organizations. On 15th August 2027, the Lashkare-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, the Harkat al-Mujahideen, the Al Badr (Jammu and Kashmir)
who declared their allegiance to the Al Qaeda raided the Pakistani Air Force’s Minhas Air
Base and acquired three plutonium cores.
The French Republic: France faced a series of terrorist attacks by the Islamic State of Iraq
and the Levant (ISIL), that took place on 13th November, 2015. In these attacks three suicide
bombers attacked outside the Saint de France in Saint Denis, the second group of terrorists
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fires the crowded cafes and restaurants and the third group carried on a mass shooting and
took hostages at an Eagles of Death Metal concert in Bataclan Theatre. Around 130 people
were killed and many more brutally injured.
On the 23rd of November, 2026, several suicide bombings took place in the city of Paris, in
the Louvre Museum, the Versailles Palace and the Notre Dame Cathedral. The attack was
reportedly was perpetrated by the ISIS and resulted in the casualties of 500 French people.
By early 2030, it was also reported that Neo-Nazi organisations began to rise in France due to
the inability of the French Government to deal with the threat of ISIS.
The United Arab Emirates: The United Arab Emirates and Yemen entered into a treaty
concerning military, counter-terrorism and security. In this treaty the United Arab Emirates
promises to help Yemen against all forms of attacks by any terrorist groups. In 2014 when
Yemen was almost captured by the Hothi rebels the, a military coalition led by the
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates entered the war and helped
the government come back to power.
The United Arab Emirates has been reported to fund militant groups in Pakistan, Afghanistan
and also having played a part in financing the September 11 attacks, which shook the entire
world. The businessmen of UAE have been accused of actively funding the Taliban and the
Haqqani networks. Moreover, the UAE has been accused of providing logistical, financial
and military support to the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a secessionist group in
southern Yemen.
On the 20th of November 2023, it was reported by the Al-Jazeera that negotiations took place
between, the UAE and Saudi Arabia led, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Al-Qaeda
in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). These negotiations allegedly resulted in the Al Qaeda
declaration of a “Holy War” against the State of Israel.
In 2025, satellites belonging to MAXAR Technologies revealed increased strength of fighters
belonging to the Al Nusra Front as well as the possession of the UAE’s Pantsir S1 SelfPropelled Surface-to-Air Missile Systems and MIM-23 Hawk Missiles as well as their L118
light gun 105 mm howitzers.
The Republic of the Philippines, The Republic of Indonesia and The Federation of
Malaya: The South China Sea dispute began due to China’s claim over the authority of the
South China Sea which have collided with maritime claims by the Socialist Republic of
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Vietnam, Negura Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, the Republic of the Philippines and Taiwan .
In the early 1970s, numerous areas in the South China Sea provided regions for rich natural
resources and excellent fishing grounds. Hence, these countries began to claim these regions.
Due to the failure of ASEAN member states and the Chinese government to come to a
common ground to resolve disputes of claims over the South China Sea, there has been an
increase in the proliferation of arms in the region.
Jemmah Islamiyah, a violent Islamist terrorist organisation with ties to Al Qaeda,
carried out a series of bombings in the Kuta, an island of Indonesia in Bali. The attack
took place on 12th October, 2002 and killed around 202 people, including 88 Australians, 38
Indonesians, 23 Britons and more than people from 20 other nationalities were killed. This
attack also injured a large number of people. Detonation of three bombs, a backpack mounted
device carried by a suicide bomber and a large car bomb were major equipment’s used in this
attack. The attack cause irreparable damage to the densely populated residential areas and
commercial district. The car bomb created a one-metre-deep crater on the Earth’s surface.
The three individuals who were involved in the attack were sentenced to imprisonment.
The Jemaah Islamiyah has become an active combatant in the South China Sea dispute due to
its alleged capture of three Chinese naval vessels in the South China Sea by Jemaah
Islamiyah fighters, who steal the resources and arms being carried by the naval vessels. As to
why the vessels were carrying arms, is unknown. Following this, the People’s Republic of
China decided to deploy its Type 055 Destroyers to protect Chinese shipping in the South
China Sea. While the Chinese military operation faced severe condemnation from the United
States and its allies alongside India, the Jemaah Islamiyah has continued its string of attacks
across islands in the South China Sea. The 2029 UN CTED report comprehensively laid out
information and map markings indicating preparations by the Jemaah Islamiyah to launch an
offensive to capture the disputed islands in the South China Sea, including the already
militarized Spratly Islands.
In January 2027, Jemaah Islamiyah fighters attacked police authorities in Singapore,
Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. The Governments of the Republic of the
Philippines and Indonesia accused the People’s Republic of China of funding and arming the
Jemaah Islamiyah to create instability within the ASEAN countries and justify increased
Chinese involvement in the South China Sea. Moreover, Jemaah Islamiyah fighters
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surrendered weapons which have been primarily used by the Chinese People’s Liberation
Army.
People’s Republic of China: It was reported by the Diplomat, a news agency, that the
People’s Republic of China is alleged to support and finance rebel groups in north-east India
and the insurgencies caused by these rebel groups. Officials of the Government of India
reported “armed groups in Myanmar — including the United Wa State Army and the Arakan
Army, which was designated a terrorist organization this year — are acting as Beijing’s
proxies by supplying weapons and providing hideouts to insurgent groups in India’s
northeastern states.” The report also added that four leaders of these terror groups were in
the Chinese city of Kunming for training and acquiring weapons. Not only this, China is also
alleged to support ULFA-I, a rebel, armed, militant group. However, these claims, made by
Bloomberg, were denied by the Chinese Foreign Minister.
Moreover, the People’s Republic of China had itself once brunt the cost of terrorism due to
the insurgency launched by the Al Qaeda affiliated East Turkestan Islamic Movement
(ETIM) and has been responsible for carrying out a multitude of attacks against the Chinese
Government, with its activities being concentrated in the Xinjiang region thus having
played a role in the Chinese Communist Party’s justification for its allegedly brutal measures
imposed on Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang.
The Governments of Philippines and Indonesia accused the Chinese Government of aiding
and financing the Jemmah Islamiyaah, an Indonesian based Islamic militant group, to disrupt
the Association of South-East Nations (ASEAN), in early 2027. The Research and Analysis
Wing (RAW), on 20th October, 2028, alleged that China is financing the People’s Liberation
Army of Manipur and the Maoist Communist Party of Manipur.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is alleged to have supported
and financed Al-Qaeda allegedly during the 9/11 attacks as well as in Syria and Yemen to
allegedly attack and eliminate Iranian proxy groups. In fact, a secret paper signed by the
US secretary of State was released in December 2009 which stated “Saudi Arabia
remains a critical financial support base for al-Qaeda, the Taliban, Lashkar-e-Taiba
and other terrorist groups”. Not only this, in 2008, Ali Hamad, a former Al-Qaeda
operative, reported that he, along with other Al-Qaeda members, had allegedly been hired by
the Saudi High Commission to provide aid in Bosnia. These criminals were aided financially
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and were also provided arms. In 2003, a senior US treasury official declared Saudi Arabia
"epicentre" of al-Qaeda financing.
According to a report submitted to the United Nations, Al-Qaeda received 300 to 500
million dollars between the years 1992 and 2002. This extravagant sum is reported to
have been financed by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, to some extent.
However, in their fight against terrorism, Saudi Arabia launched an intervention into
Yemen, on 26th March, 2015. The intervention consisted of a collation of nine countries, led
by Saudi Arabia. This was done at the request of Yemeni president Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi,
to curb the growing Houthi insurgency in Yemen. On 21st April, 2015, Operation Decisive
Storm was launched by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia wherein, they contributed 100
warplanes and 150,000 soldiers to the military operation. Soon, the Saudi Defence Ministry
announced the end of their campaign of airstrikes because they believed they had
“successfully eliminated the threat”.
On the 20th of November, 2023, it was reported by the Al-Jazeera that negotiations took
place between, the UAE and Saudi Arabia led, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and
the Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). The negotiations allegedly resulted in the
declaration of a “Holy War” against the State of Israel amidst the radorestructuring of the Al
Qaeda organization.
Ukraine: Ukraine faced a severe tide of Neo-Nazism and anti-Russian extremism following
the allegedly US sponsored Euromaidan coup which resulted in the collapse of the
Yanukovych Government. Amidst the plethora of neo-Nazi, fascist and white supremacist
organizations formed in Ukraine, the Azov Battalion has been the most prominent, primarily
because of the role it plays as part of the National Guard of Ukraine.
Founded in May 2014, the Azov Battalion’s declared objective was to fight against the
Russian-backed separatist forces in the Donbas War. The group is currently under the
command of Mykyta Nadtochiy. In 2023, the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs declared
that the Azov Battalion was expanded as a brigade of the new Offensive Guard. The
Battalion has been accused of being “Neo-Nazi” in nature because of their links with Nazi
symbols, neo-Nazi ideology and alleged violations of human rights. The Azov Battalion has
been designated as a “terrorist organization” by the Russia Federation since August 2022.
Moscow has been consistent about its accusations that the Azov Battalion has been
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responsible for committing multiple atrocities against ethnic Russians living in the
Donbass Region through targeted assassinations, extrajudicial disappearances as well as
constant bombardment without consideration for life or property.
On the 27th of February, 2022, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared the formation of an
International Legion for the Territorial Defense of Ukraine, asking fighters from other
countries to join Ukraine to defend itself against the Russian Special Military Operation.
This, according to the report by the UN CTED in 2029 was the primary cause behind the
influx of Al Qaeda and ISIS affiliated terrorists infiltrating European countries.
The Republic of Yemen: The spectre of terrorism engulfed the Republic of Yemen during
the course of its own civil war between the Saudi-UAE led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
and the allegedly Iran-backed Houthi rebels. Amidst the civil war emerged Al-Qaeda in the
Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), a Sunni Islamist militant group which currently serves as the
most powerful branch of Al Qaeda in the world. The group is also known as Ansar alSharia in Yemen, primarily being active and operating in Yemen and the Kingdom of Saudi
Arabia. The group decided to establish an emirate during the 2011 Arab Spring in Yemen and
wanted to gain political power in the country. The group has launched several attacks against
the Yemeni Government. In December 2013, an attack was launched which led to 52 Yemeni
deaths. In 2014, two dozen prisoners were freed by the Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
(AQAP) from Sanaa’s central prison.
Yemen was listed on 4 March 2020 pursuant to paragraphs 2 and 4 of resolution 2368 (2017)
of the United Nations Security Council as being associated with ISIL for “participating in the
financing, planning, facilitating, preparing, or perpetrating of acts or activities by, in
conjunction with, under the name of, on behalf of, or in support of Al-Qaida, ISIL, or any
cell, affiliate, splinter group or derivative thereof”. The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant –
Yemen has also been found to have participated in “supplying, selling or transferring arms
and related materiel”, and in “recruiting for” and otherwise supporting acts or activities of
ISIL, listed as Al-Qaida in Iraq. However, the group has claimed responsibility of several
attacks in Yemen such as the March 2015 attack, June 2016 attack, May 2016 attack,
amongst others.
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Moreover, the United Nations has published reports pointing to a potential coalition being
formed between the Houthi rebels and the ISIL-Yemen due to reportedly coordinated attacks
being pursued by both organizations against the Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
Federal Republic of Nigeria: Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen, more commonly referred
to as Al-Shabaab, is a Sunni Islamist Somalia-based militant and extremist group, responsible
for several terror attacks occurring in the nation of Africa. Alleged of forming ties with the
Al-Qaeda since 2012, it has also been reported that Al-Shabab has links with Al-Qaeda
in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). In
2011, the group linked with Boko Haram to launch suicide bombings, prior to which they
released a public statement stating “Our jihadists have arrived in Nigeria from Somalia where
they received real training on warfare from our brethren who made that country
ungovernable”.
On 13th March, 2027, a joint offensive launched by Boko Haram and Islamic State-West
Africa resulted in the capture of the Nigerian states, Yobe and Borno. Not only this, the
Boko Haram and the Islamic State-West Africa released a public statement revealing their
intentions to “destroy the Government of Nigeria”. Moreover, Al Shabaab attacks against the
Government of Somalia in Mogadishu led to a complete collapse of the Government in 2026
with governmental structures being overrun by Al Shabaab militants and Al Shabaab
supported governmental officials who in turn, establish the first Al Qaeda Emirate in the
world.
The Republic of Turkiye: Amidst the global war on terror, the Republic of Turkiye has pursued
its own war against the escalating scale of PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) attacks within Turkish
territory while also launching military operations on Syrian territory to oppose other PKK
affiliated groups such as the YPG (People’s Protection Units).
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The U.S. Department of the
Treasury’s Office of Foreign
Assets Control (OFAC)
designated one Turkey-based
al-Qa’ida financial facilitator
for materially assisting alQa’ida. These designations
expose the continued efforts by
al-Qa’ida and HTS to use the global formal financial system and highlight the need for
continued vigilance against terrorist fundraising and recruitment on the internet. Moreover,
there have been allegations against Turkiye for having allegedly militarily and financially
supported the HTS to de-stabilize the Syrian Government.
On 1st January 2030, the Syrian Government apprehended Al Nusra Front fighters who were
allegedly working with the HTS to manufacture sarin gas so as to conduct false-flag chemical
attacks by the Syrian and Russian Governments in rebel-held territories in Syria.
Causes behind the rapid rise in global terrorism
The ongoing conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine
On 24th February 2022, under the pretext of defending the people of the “Donetsk People’s
Republic” and the “Luhansk People’s Republic” as well as protecting the Russian Federation from
further expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Eastern Europe, Russian
President Vladimir Putin announced the beginning of a “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine.
This was followed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announcing the formation of an
International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine, asking foreign fighters and volunteers to
come to Ukraine to help the Ukrainian military to repel the Russian offensive.
While several volunteers arrived from the West, reportedly hundreds arrived from the Middle East
which has caused concerns among international terror watchdogs and other organizations, who fear
that many Islamist terror organizations might exploit the current conflict to further de-stabilize the
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European continent. Moreover, on the 15th of February 2023, the Russian Federation accused
Ukraine of including fighters from the Al Qaeda, the HTS and the ISIS in its International Legion.
Following the Russian capture of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhya and all Ukrainian
territory east of the Dnipro river, the West including the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
has become far more “receptive” to radicalized groups within the Ukrainian army including an
allegedly Neo-Nazi group called the Azov Battalion. The United Kingdom of Great Britain and
Northern Ireland as well as Denmark, acting on behalf of NATO, have been allegedly training Azov
Battalion forces for the past decade. Despite the US Congress banning any provisions for arms for
the Azov Battalion and other Neo-Nazi Groups in Ukraine, reports have alleged that the Central
Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Pentagon have played a key role in training Azov Battalion
fighters as well as in ultimately diverting American arms to them, in violation of American laws.
The 2029 Report presented by the United Nations Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive
Directorate (UN CTED) has recorded the refugee influx from Ukraine included alleged HTS,
Al Qaeda and ISIS members of the International Legion. The relaxed immigration and
asylum regulations introduced by the European Union for Ukrainian refugees specifically
allowed these militants to use faulty paperwork and fake documentation to gain asylum and
seek refuge in EU countries, specifically the French Republic and the Federal Republic of
Germany. Some militants were able to seek refuge in the United Kingdom of Great Britain
and Northern Ireland. This influx comprised of alleged 500 ISIS members in Poland and
Romania. From there, 300 travelled to Paris and 200 reached Berlin. 200 alleged HTS
fighters reached Liverpool while 300 alleged Al Qaeda fighters remained in Ukraine.
The Israel-Palestine Conflict
The conflict between Israel and Palestine has continued for the past seven decades, primarily over
disputes revolving around the ownership of the territory which was once regarded as Mandatory
Palestine, in line with the Mandate from the League of Nations. As wars raged between Israel and
Arab countries, Israel continued to occupy much more of Arab territory, including those which were
initially regarded as belonging to the Palestinian Arabs. Specifically, the Six-Day War of 1967
resulted in the Israeli occupation of the West Bank, the Gaza Strip as well as Arab territories
including the Golan Heights which previously belonged to the Syrian Arab Republic. Following the
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1967 war, all Arab territories which have been occupied by Israel have been deemed invalid and
illegitimate occupations under international law. Moreover, policies adopted by Israel, which have
resulted in the transfer of settlers from Israel to the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and other occupied
Arab territories, have been deemed as illegal under international law. Although efforts (including the
Oslo Accords) were pursued by both Israel and Palestinian factions such as the Palestine Liberation
Organization (PLO) to ensure greater Palestinian self-governance in the West Bank and the Gaza
Strip while carrying out a withdrawal of Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from the Occupied Territories,
extremist elements on both sides prevented such proposals from being implemented.
In 2006, when an extremist faction of the Palestinian movement, Hamas, won the legislative
elections held in the Gaza Strip in 2006, Israel launched a brutal military assault against Palestinians
in Gaza, while enforcing a destructive land, sea and air blockade, which resulted in severe
restrictions on humanitarian aid entering Gaza. Moreover, measures adopted by Israel, to evict
Palestinians from their homes as well as prevent them from worshipping at their holy sites, has
provoked conflict with Hamas on multiple occasions. Additionally, allegations centred around the
possible funding and arming of Hamas by the Islamic Republic of Iran, has been one of the primary
factors responsible for tensions between Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Hamas attacks on 7th October 2023 however, crossed multiple thresholds, with thousands of rockets
fired into Israeli cities as well as Hamas fighters holding hundreds of Israeli civilians hostage.
Moreover, this was a coordinated attack- launched by Hamas along with other extremist Palestinian
factions such as the Palestine Islamic Jihad (PIJ), the Palestinian Resistance Committees (PRCs), the
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of
Palestine (DFLP).
The Israeli counter-offensives against the Palestinian factions has been nothing less than ruthlessresulting in the destruction of civilian infrastructure including schools and hospitals as well as
ridding the Palestinians of any means to protect themselves or gain access to any necessities
including food, clothing and medicines among others. This has caused global outrage and especially
widespread anger in the Middle East. Meetings of the Arab League have only resulted in continuous
condemnations of Israeli attacks while the Islamic Republic of Iran, has been mobilizing forces from
its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), indicating the possibility of this war spilling into
other parts of the region.
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Amidst the continuous demands for a ceasefire as well as the recognition of a Palestinian state
coupled with accountability for Israel for its actions, there has been a dangerous, yet emerging trendsupport for extremist and terror organizations, that have unilaterally seemed to have championed the
Palestinian cause. It is this very conflict and the frustration surrounding the inability of the
international community to act that had begun to inspire people to take to other means- specifically,
terrorism. This has served as the catalyst behind the global resurgence of the Al Qaeda’s Middle
Eastern branches, who have begun to gain, both in terms of manpower and money. In 2024, the
Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team for terrorist activities by the Al Qaeda, the
Islamic State and the Taliban published a report to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC)
declaring that they was a significant increase in violations of asset freezes imposed upon Al Qaeda
affiliates by “certain member states”, among increasing reports that officials from Arab League
countries have been negotiating with members of the Al Qaeda Shura Council for the need to initiate
a “Holy War” against Israel. All such accusations have been consistently denied.
The United Nations Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (UN CTED) in its
2029 report to the United Nations Security Council Counter-Terrorism Committee (UNSCCTC) had indicated that the rise of Al Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)
has been primarily encouraged by the global anger against the status of the Palestinian
conflict. Moreover, the violations of several sanctions and asset freezes imposed upon the Al
Qaeda and the ISIS has helped them gain access to a vast amount of funds, allowing them to
finance their activities across the world.
Rising trend of terrorism in Africa
The political and military instability of African countries following the collapse of colonial rule
ultimately gave way to the rise of terrorism, especially those of Al Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates.
One such affiliate of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) is Boko Haram, which has
operated in Nigeria, Chad, Mali and Cameroon. With an aim to expel Western influence from the
African continent as well as create a Salafi-Islamist State in its occupied territories, the Boko Haram
has killed an estimated 50,000 people and displaced 2.5 million people.
In 2015, the Boko Haram pledged its allegiance to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and
formed a different group called the Islamic State-West Africa (ISIS-WA). Despite factional disputes
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within the organization, the Boko Haram has played a key role in perpetrating terrorism across the
Sahel region and other regions in Africa. The G5 Sahel has played a big role in trying to bring about
stability and peace in the Sahel region with the French Republic leading the military efforts, as part
of Operation Barkhane, to counter Boko Haram and other terrorist groups operating in the region.
On 13th March 2027, Boko Haram and ISIS-WA fighters joined forces to launch a major offensive
against Nigerian forces, resulting in the capture of multiple provinces. This is also, in major part,
because of financing and arms trafficking by Gulf Cartel members who in accordance, is what was
supposedly a Secret Agreement signed between the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and the
Gulf Cartel, in exchange for Gulf Cartel access to prominent drug trafficking routes, especially
through roads leading to Maiduguri.
The increasing violations of sanctions and asset freezes , coupled with relaxations in international
transaction laws, has provided the Al Qaeda and the Islamic State with a vast array of financial
resources, which they have used to expand their operations in the African continent.
The immediate ramifications of this have already been felt in the Federal Republic of Somalia where
the Al Shabaab, a Somali terrorist group with financial and military links with Al Qaeda, had ramped
up its offensive in major Somali cities in 2024. However, the offensive indicates the usage of
Iranian weapons such as main battle tanks and the Fateh-110 Tactical Ballistic Missile
Systems. However, there has been no indication as to how these weapons reached Al Shabaab
and even the Islamic Republic of Iran has refused to comment on the issue. The Al Shabaab’s
primary goal is to discredit, destabilize and overthrow the Federal Government of Nigeria by
using insurgent-type tactics against Somalia and international military forces. By the 8th of
April 2026, the Al Shabaab and its combined Al Qaeda forces destroyed half of the Somali
armed forces while beheading the remaining soldiers who had surrendered arms. This leads to
the declaration of the formation of the Al Qaeda Emirate of Somalia. Moreover, as part of the
agreement between the Al Qaeda Shura Council and the Sinaloa Cartel, the Al Qaeda provided the
Sinaloa cartel with access to heroin trafficking routes within Africa to allow the Sinaloa cartel to
expand its worldwide drug trafficking operations, especially because of its now unfettered access to
the Port of Mogadishu.
The rapid offensives by the Boko Haram and the ISIS-WA has been a major challenge for the
Nigerian security forces who have requested the United States of America, the French Republic and
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their allies to intervene in the conflict to protect them. Moreover, as Al Qaeda captures Somalia,
there is an imminent threat of a potential large scale war between fighters belonging to the Boko
Haram-ISIS-WA coalition and the Al Shabaab-AQIM (Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb) coalition
which could be devastating for the entire region.
Tensions in South Asia
Amidst already existing rivalries between India, the People’s Republic of China and the Islamic
Republic of Pakistan as well as disputes over the South China Sea between the Association of SouthEast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Beijing, the spectre of terrorism has presented a new threat- one
which if handled incorrectly, can curse the region to oblivion. Multiple raids of Chinese ships by the
allegedly Al Qaeda affiliated Jemaah Islamiyah fighters has triggered an aggressive military posture
by the People’s Liberation Army Navy in the South China Sea, provoking unequivocal
condemnation from the ASEAN as well as the United States and India, who have not hesitated to
respond in kind. Moreover, Jemaah Islamiyah attacks against ASEAN member states, notably the
Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore have led to suspicions of potential financial and
military support being provided to the Jemaah Islamiyah by the People’s Republic of China.
Tensions between India and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan date back to the time when these
countries gained their independence from the British and they have primarily revolved around the
issue of Kashmir. Both countries continue to assert that Kashmir belongs to them. After successive
difficulties in capturing the valley in the Indo-Pak Wars of 1965, 1971 and later the Kargil War, the
Islamic Republic of Pakistan allegedly adopted tactics which skewed with the ideas of Islamic
fundamentalism in non-state armed groups operating in the Kashmir Valley. Exploiting the fine lines
between fundamentalism and terrorism, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan allegedly provided
financial and military support to insurgents within the Kashmir Valley, beginning an era of militancy
that has caused immense devastation to the people living there as well as the Indian military which
has faced multiple casualties over the past two decades.
Following the re-emergence of Al Qaeda and the Islamic State in the Middle East and Africa, nonstate armed groups within the Islamic Republic of Pakistan received a renewed form of support and
strength. Moreover, the increasing propagation of “Global Jihad” by the Al Qaeda and its affiliates
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resulted in a significant increase in funding for Pakistani terror groups such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba,
Jaish-e-Mohammed, Harkat al-Mujahideen and the Al Badr (Jammu and Kashmir) who declared
their allegiance to the Al Qaeda in 2027. Following the 15th August attacks by the allegedly Indiasupported Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) against Pakistani forces, these armed groups
mobilized on a large scale to retaliate. However, amidst the ensuing chaos, these armed groups
raided the Pakistani Air Force’s Minhas Air Base and acquired three plutonium cores. This could
pose a serious danger to South Asia since a nuclear conflict, even on a micro scale with such nonstate armed groups, would result in irreversible devastation to the region.
Relations between India and the People’s Republic of China, already complicated by the existing
border issues, have further deteriorated due to alleged Chinese meddling in North-East India where
the People’s Republic of China has been working in tandem with the Myanmar military junta to
allegedly smuggle arms and rebels into what is called the Chicken’s Neck of India- the Siliguri
corridor, thus infiltrating into the organizational structure of North-East rebel groups which have
demanded autonomy for Nagaland, Manipur, Meghalaya and Tripura. In 2027, the Research and
Analysis Wing (RAW) advised the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) to stop the inflow of
refugees from Myanmar, due to an increase in Chinese arms smuggling through the IndiaMyanmar border. RAW also published a report providing evidence of a possible coalition
being formed between multiple Naxalite groups and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
(ISIL).
Moreover, the increasingly destabilizing economic situation in India resulted in the rise of
Naxalite activities across India which culminated in the CPI (ML) and other Naxalite groups
forming the Supreme Maoist Party of India (SMPI). The SMPI begins attacking police
stations in Bhilai (in Chattisgarh), Nandigram (in West Bengal), Chapra (in Bihar) and
Khammam (in Telangana), resulting in 500 casualties in the Indian police forces. In 2028,
investigations by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) found that SMPI fighters are
armed with QJY-201 general purpose machine guns and several other weapons used by the
People’s Liberation Army of the People’s Republic of China. At the same time, Indian forces
in Manipur and Assam, were ambushed by fighters from the United Liberation Front of
Assam (ULFA), the People’s Liberation Army of Manipur, the Maoist Communist Party of
Manipur which, according to the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), were allegedly
receiving financial and military support from the People’s Republic of China.
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Alleged involvement of drug cartels
The sudden emergence of cartels as a dominant player in the world’s current geopolitical
scenario has acted as a catalyst in aggravating the crisis to such an extent that even terror
groups have established their links with these groups. Their dominance has been established
with them functioning, if not together, but side by side with some of the most dangerous and
gruesome extremist groups, wreaking havoc globally.
The Gulf Cartel, one of the oldest drug syndicates of Mexico, has allegedly been financing
the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) and has been spreading their influence to the
Middle-East as well. The Gulf Cartel had been financing and supplying this terror group with
arms and ammunition, thus increasing their military and economic strength. Not only this,
their influence has spread to Africa too with them providing military aid to Boko Haram.
There have been reports of Boko Haram using the following weapons: M-60 Patton Main
Battle Tanks and Ratel Infantry Fighting Vehicles as well as BM-21 Grad Multiple Launch
Rocket Systems and T-55 Firtina 155 mm Self Propelled Howitzers which had earlier been
used in the Libyan civil war, and it is alleged that these weapons are in their possession only
because of their links with the Gulf Cartel.
The Sinaloa Cartel has been financing Al-Qaeda since before the September 11 attacks and
continues to do so- a testimony to their flourishing partnership over the years. A report
released by the United Nations Counter-Terrorism Executive Directorate (UNCTED)
established a clear link between these two organisations, explaining how the Sinaloa Cartel
has used Al-Qaeda’s captured territory to smuggle drugs in exchange for the cartel supplying
them with arms and financing. Not only this, Faime Tarrrera reported in one of his articles
that the Sinaloa Cartel’s funds are being used by Al-Qaeda in their offensives against the
State of Israel.
Los Zetas had been providing Hezbollah with weaponry, as was alleged in the article written
by Faime Terrera who reported that members of Los Zetas had been engaging in negotiations
with Hezbollah and smuggling arms to Iraq and Syria.
Emerging terror attacks in Europe
The rising trend of terrorism in the Middle East has found its way to Europe, with terror
attacks and bombings now having become a regular occurrence. This has led to widespread
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condemnation by the citizens of Europe who have grown tired and dissatisfied with the
Government and their inability to tackle the crisis at hand.
The crisis began after the Russian attack on Ukraine. The attack resulted in hundreds of
thousands of Ukrainian refugees migrating to Europe with the hopes of finding shelter. Thus,
the refugee laws were relaxed to allow Ukrainian refugees to enter Europe. Expedited
processes of verification and large numbers of refugees culminated into something more
destructive. Moreover, the introduction of the Ukraine Family Scheme by the UK’s Home
Office allowed Ukrainian nationals to live and work in the UK up to 3 years. Taking
advantage of this situation, ISIS and HTS fighters entered Europe in hundreds. They used
faked identification and passports and since the verification process was fast-paced and
equally flawed, they began settling in various corners of Europe. Reports of alleged 500 ISIS
members in Poland and Romania emerged. From there, 200 travelled to Paris, 200 reached
Berlin and 100 reached Brussels. 200 alleged HTS fighters reach Liverpool while 300 alleged
Al Qaeda fighters remain.
Eventually, this resulted in the emergence of Neo-Nazi organisations, namely the SS
Charlemagne, the Continuity IRA and the New IRA in the United Kingdom and the Afd in
Germany. These organisations, partnering up with alleged Al-Qaeda aligned HTS fighters,
have been causing chaos in Europe.
In the Second Chechen War emerged a terrorist organisation known as the Caucasus Emirate.
It was eventually formed again with the help of some Al-Qaeda fighters, who were a part of
the International Legion formed by Ukraine, and Chechens working against the Russian
Federation. Later in the year 2028, the Caucasus Emirate captured Urus Martan and Shali in
Chechnya and Kizilyurt in Dagestan, destroying all resistance from the Russian military and
declared active preparations for a major offensive into Grozny. Thus, they gained popularity
and thousands of people grouped together and became a part of this terror group. However, it
was later revealed by the SVR and the FSB that this very group was being financed by the
United States of America after receiving fundings worth $500 million.
Relaxations in international financial regulation policy
In 2028, members of the Republican Party in the House of Representatives and Senate passed
a bill to amend the provisions of the Banking Secrecy Act, titled the Banking Openness and
Transparency Bill, 2028 which received the absolute support and subsequent assent by
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President Donald J. Trump. According to the BOTA, earlier long-drawn processes of
verification have been significantly cut down, thus making it easier for banks based in the
United States to conduct transactions and transfers of payments with certain entities that
might have been flagged as conducting “Suspicious Activities”.
While the removal of bureaucratic procedures has helped significantly increase the number of
financial transactions undertaken in the country, thus having an indirect impact on the
American economy and playing a vital role in bringing the country out of economic
recession, the BOTA has opened a sort of Pandora’s Box in terms of loopholes, as was
explained in the UN CTED’s report presented to the UNSC-CTC in 2029.
The UK and the European Union, taking inspiration from the United States of America,
passed similar relaxations to earlier restrictions imposed on financial resolutions. This has
allowed multiple banks including HSBC, JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Standard
Chartered Bank, Deutsche Bank and Bank of New York Mellon, as revealed so far by the UN
CTED’s 2029 report, to allegedly, through Mexican cartels as well as non-state
intermediaries, to launder money for the Al Qaeda, ISIS, Chinese state entities allegedly
financing Naxalite groups in India, the Hamas, the Hezbollah and entities belonging to Iran’s
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
In 2029, Alexander Bortnikov (Director of the FSB) and Sergey Naryshkin (Director of the
SVR) displayed what they called “classified Treasury Department documents” as well as
bank statements pursued by the FSB and SVR which detailed elaborate transactions from
multiple State department and Treasury department entities as well as American non-state
entities with individuals or groups associated with the Al Qaeda, including an $500 million
payment to the Caucasus Emirate. Moreover, Russian police forces carried out raids in the
offices of 000 HSBC Bank and found incriminating documents pointing to money laundering
taking place from its American branch to the Caucasus Emirate via the Sinaloa Cartel
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Consequences of the Crisis
The world is in a dearth crisis with the Global Axis of Terrorism posing a threat to the stability of the
geo-political scenario of the world. The Axis consisting of: the Al Qaeda, the Palestinian Islamic
Jihad (PIJ), the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, the Al Shabaab, the Al Qaeda in
the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Jemaah Islamiyah, the
Al Nusra Front, the Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Harkat al-Mujahideen, Al Badr
(Jammu and Kashmir), the Caucasus Emirate, the AfD (Alternative for Germany) party, the
Continuity Irish Republican Army (Continuity IRA), the New Irish Republican Army (New
IRA), the SS Charlemagne, is far more dangerous than we can comprehend with the power to
leave the world in shambles. The address of Al-Qaeda’s Emir where he declared the
beginning of the “Great Holy War where Islamic revisionists and democratic debauchery will
come to an end and where the strongest shall prevail” is a statement filled with terrible plans.
The emergence of Neo-Nazism can make extremism a cult in the continent. Moreover, the
possession of Pakistani plutonium cores by Pakistani insurgent groups as well as Iran-linked
groups has brought the world face-to-face with the sheer reality of a protracted nuclear
conflict in an already de-stabilized region.
As delegates of the United Nations Futuristic Security Council, you will perhaps come face to
face with the gravest of crisis this committee has ever faced. With a Global Axis of Terrorism
constantly looming above your heads, you have to prevent the world from plunging into yet
another catastrophic War. How will you do that? By upholding your country’s foreign policy
and learning to adapt as the situation demands. This committee will require comprehensive
research, lobbying and the most important thing, cooperation. Cooperation amongst you,
delegates, can go a far way in saving the world from potential conflict. However, it will be
your presence of mind, analytical understanding of the agenda and the will to act and
negotiate that will help you, your country and the world, survive.
As Christopher Hitchen once said,
“Terrorism is the tactic of demanding the impossible, and demanding it at gunpoint.”
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Position Papers
Considering the complexities of geopolitical scenarios in this committee, it is imperative for
delegates of this committee to submit a position paper to unhsc.jacomun23@gmail.com no
later than 11:59 pm IST (Indian Standard Time) on 20th July, 2023. This position paper holds
paramount importance as it is through this position paper that each delegation in committee
can clearly outline their country’s foreign policies regarding the committee so as to provide
the Executive Board with a comprehensive understanding of the roadmap the delegation
wants to take during the three days of committee, considering the vast array of updates and
information that has been given in the timeline. The Position Paper should consist of these
three fundamental aspects:
1. Statement of the Problem
2. Country Policy on the Agenda
3. Solutions to the crisis at hand (Both Unilateral and Multilateral)
A sample of the Position Paper can be found in the Conference Handbook which has been
uploaded on the JacoMUN website.
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Citations
1. https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violent-extremism-sahel
2. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26328893#:~:text=Turkey's%20civilian%20and%20sec
urity%20elite,diplomatic%20traffic%20in%20the%20region.
3. https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/islamic-state-iraq-and-levantyemen#:~:text=ISIL%2D%20Yemen%20carried%20out%20numerous,and%20woundi
ng%20at%20least%20357
4. https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/china-aiding-rebel-groups-in-indias-northeastreport/
5. https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15190.doc.htm
6. https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/1291449?v=pdf
7. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/
8. https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/
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