SWOT-Analysis of the FISH4ACP initiative in Cameroon Strengths • • • Specialized Agency of the United Nations with 195 members, earning the Organization a certain reputation and credibility Trying to achieve the main goal of global food security since 1945, resulting in a lot of experience and expertise Active in 130 countries, creating a global network of cooperation Weaknesses • • • Opportunities • • • • Shrimp fishery has the potential to be profitable and competitive long term. Shrimp is the country’s main seafood export, employing around 2000 people (2022) making this sector an important one for Cameroon Trade agreements with Asia Cameroon’s Large shrimps are a soughtafter luxury product both domestically and internationally Reliant on outside sources for funding, in this case the European Union and the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development Due to the size of the organization: Possibility of slow adaption to change, lack of agility Not an NGO: Possibility of political dynamics getting in the way of progress Threats • • • • • • Political Instability in Cameroon: Corruption Problems, Lake Chad crisis, border disputes with Nigeria … Problems with piracy and illegal fishing in Cameroons waters: New ban on fishing imports imposed by the European Union Commission Part of a larger initiative with 11 other countries: Possibility of competition for funding within FISH4ACP Worrying numbers in terms of social sustainability, environmental sustainability, and resilience of the current shrimp fishery value chain Lack of data as well as fishing management Predicted to have a weak spill-over effect on the rest of the economy The FISH4ACP initiative is a program implemented by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and funded by the European Union and the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development. The name stands for “Fish for Africa, the Caribbean, and the Pacific” and the overarching objective is improving the fishing and aquaculture value chains in 12 countries located in those three regions. One of the African countries where the FAO is implementing this initiative is Cameroon. Here the focus has been put on the country’s shrimp fishery, which the FAO is trying to turn into a profitable and sustainable sector for the country. Having started in 2022, the project has set out three main goals, that are to be achieved by 2032: 1. Sustainable fishing (Around 5000 tons of shrimp per year), 2. Exporting to new international markets and meeting health and sanitation standards and 3. Creating transparency along the supply chain with every catch being recorded. Regarding the SWOT-Analysis Table for this project, the first thing to focus on are the internal strengths. The FAO is an inter-governmental organization of the United Nations, which gives it a certain legitimacy and authority that can potentially help with policymaking and implementation. In addition, the institution has been operating all around the world since 1945, resulting in a level of experience that can be an advantage, when it comes to overseeing FISH4ACP in Cameroon. Now looking at the weaknesses, the FAO’s size, and status as an IGO also come with some potential downsides. While the first point, the organizations’ reliance on outside funding would also apply to most NGOs, the second point is more exclusive to larger entities like the FAO: A potential lack of agility. As opposed to smaller NGOs, IGOs are associated with more bureaucracy and administrative procedures which can get in the way of (or slow down) progress. The FAO’s rather complex organizational chart also adds to this point. Finally, as opposed to NGOs, IGOs like the FAO are not independent of governments, as they are a grouping of several nations (194 and the EU in this case). The individual interests of these countries’ governments could potentially pose a weakness. One example would be Nigeria and Cameroon, who are both members of the FAO, but currently have a border conflict over the Bakassi peninsula. Having assessed internal factors, the situation surrounding the project can be discussed next, starting with the Opportunities. Cameroon’s coast has been known for its abundance of shrimp for centuries, with four of the large shrimp species reportedly holding the most potential for international export. While the project’s focus on exporting to the European market will be talked about in the section on weaknesses, exporting to the Asian and regional markets could pose a great opportunity for Cameroon. A pricing scenario by the FAO makes the regional African market out to potentially be especially profitable in the future (with the predicted price for shrimp in the market sitting at 17.2 USD/kg by 2026). For comparison: The shrimp prices for the local and Asian markets are both predicted to only reach 10.5 USD/kg in two years. Despite the relatively lower price, selling to Asia still holds potential and there are already trade agreements in place. Beyond this, a report by the FAO assessed the 2021 shrimp value chain to be economically sustainable, internationally competitive, and able to provide stable full-time jobs. Since the goal of FISH4ACP is to limit the Cameroonian shrimp fishery to about its output from 2021 (4212 tons sold), the fact that the value chain was already economically sustainable at that time is encouraging. However, the FAO’s report showed one key problem even within the otherwise positive section on economic sustainability: Low spill-over effects on the rest of the economy. This is the first external threat to the success of the project and could limit its potential positive effects on Cameroon’s economy Additionally, the other indicators used by the FAO to assess the shrimp fishery’s sustainability also look worrying. A score of 44 out of 100 in the IGO’s social sustainability rating speaks to Cameroon’s problems with inequality and weak institutions. Their evaluation of the value chains economic sustainability and resistance is equally negative. One key danger identified by the FAO in this context is the sustainability of the shrimp stocks. It seems like a real possibility, that overfishing will soon threaten the whole value chain and thus the industry at the core of the FISH4ACP’s project in Cameroon. The lack of data on shrimp populations and catches poses a threat of its own, as it makes it harder to assess the current state of the fishery. Beyond these potential obstacles, another threat emerged last year concerning illegal fishing. Cameroon had (and reportedly still has) problems adhering to sanitation standards set by the EU, resulting in a ban on shrimp imports from the country to any EU nation in 2004. Just one year after this ban was finally lifted in 2022, the European Union Commission issued a red card, stopping fish and shrimp imports from Cameroon once again. This time it was due to the increase in unreported, unregulated, and illegal fishing in the country’s waters, which now poses a huge threat to the project’s success for two main reasons: Firstly, the EU was part of what the FAO made out as a key target market for Cameroon (lucrative markets) and it is now questionable when exports to France, Spain and Co. will be possible again. Secondly, the unregistered (reportedly often foreign) fishing vessels further threaten the shrimp population and its sustainability which is at the core of the project. The final threat to the FISH4ACP’s initiative in Cameroon comes from within the country (and its neighbors): Political instability. Apart from the already mentioned problems with weak institutions and corruption, Cameroon is impacted by multiple humanitarian crises. The main one is the Lake Chad Basin conflict, which has destabilized the far north of the country, displacing hundreds of thousands of people. Even more relevant for this project is the Bakassi conflict over a peninsula of the same name. This border dispute has turned into an armed conflict between Cameroon and its western neighbor Nigeria. What makes this especially threatening to the success of this project is the fact that the waters around Bekassi are rated as the most prolific zone for shrimp fishing by the FAO. All in all, the FISH4ACP initiative has the potential to further strengthen and stabilize one of Cameroon’s most important seafood-export industries. However, due to the many external threats that the project faces, I would estimate that it has a 50% chance of reaching its goals by 2032. In my opinion, the biggest obstacle that the FAO must overcome is the problem of unregulated, illegal fishing. Not only has this led to another ban on exports to the EU last year, a key target market for the FAO, but it also threatens the shrimp populations in Cameroon’s waters. Even this threat on its own could potentially be enough to destabilize the value chain before 2032, both in terms of profits as well as sustainability. But it must be mentioned that a lot of the data used to evaluate this project is from 2021 (Or based on predictions made by the FAO), making it hard to assess the current state of Cameroon’s shrimp fishery. New data will likely be released in the planned midterm evaluation of the project in 2026. Sources Brice R. Mbodiam: Cameroon expects shrimp shipments to the EU to resume after an 18-year ban: https://www.businessincameroon.com/public-management/2810-12821cameroon-expects-shrimp-shipments-to-the-eu-to-resume-after-an-18-year-ban FAO Website Article (2021): https://www.fao.org/in-action/fish-4-acp/resourcedetail/en/c/1410586/ FAO Website Article (2022): https://www.fao.org/in-action/fish-4-acp/resourcedetail/en/c/1476853/ FAO Website Article (2023): https://www.fao.org/in-action/fish-4-acp/resourcedetail/en/c/1652109/ FAO: FISH4ACP: https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/55d79f726b75-45c5-afbb-974aa03bbd66/content FAO: FISH4ACP in Cameroon: https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/bb878458-70db-4cf5-8b8ee1d8e0cc084a/content FAO: List of FAO Member countries: https://www.fao.org/africa/countries/en/ Jacques Diouf: Statement by the Director-General: https://www.fao.org/4/x2214e/x2214e01.htm#:~:text=Although%20FAO%20is%20an%2 0intergovernmental,%2Dgovernmental%20organizations%20(NGOs). Pierre-Philippe Blanc et al., FAO Summary Report: The large shrimp value chain in Cameroon (2023): https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/bc8c63dd125a-4b7d-b17e-c8a409d9d629/content Shuimo Trust: The EU ban that spurred a crackdown on illegal fishing : https://www.fairplanet.org/story/eu-ban-illegal-fishing-chinese-trawlerscameroon/