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Webinar Betcon 2024

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Introduction
Definitions
Main Players
Benefits
Constraints
Urban Air Mobility
• Urban Air Mobility (UAM) promises a revolution in intracity and inter city transport,
• The aviation industry and high-tech newcomers alike are making huge investments
to make this still unproven technology a reality.
(1) Sky drive
Mobility
Number of ‘mega-cities will rise from today to 2030 with 90 % of the growth happening in
Africa and Asia,
2015
2025
2035
Tokyo (37M)
Delhi (26M)
Shanghai (23M)
Mexico City (21M)
Sao Paulo (19M)
Bombay (19M)
Osaka (19M)
Cairo (19M)
New York-Newark (19M)
Beiging (18M)
Tokyo (37M)
Delhi (35M)
Shanghai (30M)
Dhaka (25M)
Cairo (23M)
Sao Paulo (23M)
Mexico City (23M)
Beijing (23M)
Bombay (22M)
New York-Newark (19M)
Delhi (43M)
Tokyo (36M)
Shanghai (34M)
Dhaka (31M)
Cairo (29M)
Bombay (27M)
Kinshasa (27M)
Mexico City (25M)
Beijing (25M)
Sao Paulo (24M)
Business opportunities
Approximately 15,000 eVTOL units are estimated in 2035 on the basis of the market starting
in 2025.
Artificial Intelligence - IA
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Source: ”Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach”
by Peter Norvig and Stuart Russell
“Artificial Intelligence” and “Machine Learning” are promising, but still unproven.
Introduction
Definitions
Main Players
Benefits
Constraints
Manned and unmanned aviation
• “ The two worlds now share similar challenges and confuse those who are lost in terms
as ‘autonomous aircraft’, ‘UAS’, ‘RPAS’ and ‘passenger drones”,
• ICAO terminology:
Name
Description
Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS)
All aircraft flown without a pilot on board. Includes RPAS,
autonomous aircraft and model aircraft.
Aircraft flown by a human pilot from a remote location.
Aircraft that does not permit intervention of a human
pilot to fulfill their intended flight.
RPAS distinguished by their recreational use.
Remotely Piloted Aircraft System (RPAS)
Autonomous aircraft
Model aircraft
What is UAM? 1/3
• “A safe and efficient system for air passenger and cargo transportation within an
urban area, inclusive of small package delivery and other urban Unmanned Aerial
Systems (UAS) services, which supports a mix of on-board/ground-piloted and
increasingly autonomous operations” (NASA, 2017).
What is UAM? 2/3
• The mission of UAM is the transport of passengers and cargo by air over relatively
short distances (typically less than 100 km,
• The mission occurs in an urban environment either in cities or in between cities.
The flight path is at relatively low altitude ( 150 – 500 m) above people and/or
property.
What is UAM? 3/3
Electrically Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL)
Introduction
Definitions
Main Players
Benefits
Constraints
Volocopter/Lilium
• The Volocopter 2X is a two passenger eVTOL multicopter,
• The Lilium Jet (7-passengers) cruise speed of 280 km/h, a 250 and cruise altitude
3000 m (10000 ft).
(2) Volocopter
(3) Lilium
Vertical/EHang
• Focuses on the development of eVtol aircraft for passenger and cargo,
• The world’s first passenger-carrying UAV in 2016, pioneering the emerging industry
of UAM worldwide.
(4) Vertical
(5) EHang
Airbus/Skydrive
• It will have about 80km range, 120kph cruise speed, 65 (cruise) to 70 (landing) ,
• SkyDrive is accelerating the development of its eVTOL vehicle with the 9.6 billion
yen (67 million dls) it recently raised.
(6) NextGen
(7) SkyDrive
Archer/Embraer
• Founded in October 2018 is building an all-electric VTOL aircraft focused on improving mobility in cities,
• In September 2022, United ordered 200 units of Embraer Eve flying taxis.
(8) Archer
(9) Embraer
To be considered by players
• Generated power by kilogram (by: Alexandre C. Gesualdi©),
Source
Power
Unit
Gasoline/Jet fuel
Hydrogen cells
Lithium
10 to 11
2
.2 to .3
Kwh/kg
Kwh/Kg
Kwh/Kg
• Charges between 2 and 6 USD/Km (estimated from different manufactures).
Introduction
Definitions
Main Players
Benefits
Constraints
Emergency and cargo
(10) Emergency
(11) Cargo
Infrastructure 1/2
• If VTOLs are going to reach their full potential, infrastructure will need to be
added and integrated with other modes of transportation,
• The development of sufficient landing pads and service stations pose an operational
burden to deploying a VTOL fleet in cities,
• Candidates are high-rise buildings, parking lots, empty spaces near ways and existing public transport hubs.
Infrastructure 2/2
Future airspace 1/2
Successful, optimized on-demand urban VTOL operation will necessitate a significantly
higher frequency and airspace density of vehicles operating over metropolitan areas simultaneously.
Future airspace 2/2
Communications 6G
Public acceptance
• Experience with aircraft noise has shown again and again that new groups of people
exposed,
• Developing the quietest vehicles, low noise procedures, smart urban planning and,
if necessary, operational restrictions.,
Environment
• The “Flightpath 2050” strategic document of the European Commission aims for a
75 % reduction in CO2 , a 90 % reduction in NOX , and a 65 % reduction in perceived
noise per aircraft,
• The most UAM-vehicles are electrically powered and could thus contribute to a
reduction of vehicle carbon emissions and particle emissions.
Introduction
Definitions
Main Players
Benefits
Constraints
Production costs
Estimated values from manufacturers.
Company
Value
Unit
EHang
Lilium
Archer
Job aviation
330000
3 to 10
2 to 2.5
1.3
USD
Million of USD
Million of USD
Million of USD
Material
• The state of the art in battery technology is the Lithium Polymers (LiPo) battery,
• Lithium-metal batteries but predominately for the automotive industry, 500 to 600
Km range,
• Hybrids (Hydrogen fuel cells), which could potentially provide ranges up to 1600
km,
• Betavolt, its nuclear battery is the first in the world to realize the miniaturization
of atomic energy, placing nickel-63 isotopes into a module smaller than a coin.
Certification and liability
• Before any new vehicle can operate, it will need to comply with regulations from
aviation authorities (FAA/EASA),
• Standards for vehicle design, production, pilot licensing, maintenance and operating
requirements,
• Design and develop advanced autonomous systems is a major technical challenge,
• Manufacturers should be able to apply for an experimental airworthiness certificate
for their aircraft before the type certification basis will be defined,
Operational costs 1/2
Helicopter as reference (this value can multiplied twice for eVTOL):
Start up costs
Average amount USD
Purchase of helicopters
Maintenance and repairs
Pilot training and expenses
Fuel and other consumables
Hanger rental or lease
Technology and software
Licenses and permits
Safety and insurance
Marketing and advertising
500000 to 2500000 per helicopter
60000 to 100000 per year (per helicopter)
70000 to 100000 per year
200 to 800 per flight hour
3000 to 10000 per month
50000 to 100000
5000 to 20000
50000 to 100000 per year
10000 to 50000 per year
Total
888200 to 4470000
Operational costs 2/2
Safety considerations
• The risk of damage to people or property inflicted by a UAM vehicle,
• Privacy issues could lead to undesired airspace restrictions and minimum altitudes,
• A new service that only benefits the rich and famous and disturbs the rest.
Reflection
“Some diseases kill within hours or days, others kill slowly.’’
Questions?
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