Outlook for 2024 of Nasdaq-100 technology index
Historical Reasons
1.
2.
3.
4.
For 2024
Source: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/history-says-the-nasdaq-could-soar-21-in-2024.-heres-the-growth-stock-to-buy-right-now.
The Nasdaq-100 plunged in 2022 on the back of a 33% loss.
Since 1986, it didn’t fall in consecutive years except 2000 to 2002 (dot-com bubble).
Nasdaq-100 bounced back with a whopping 53% gain in 2023.
Bounce-back years like 2023 have always been followed by another positive year.
It happened 4 times with an average annual gain of 21.5%.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/stock-market-outlook-and-forecast/#:~:text=Wall%20Street%20analysts%20are%20expecting,growth%20in%20the%20second%20quarter.
1. Strong economic data
2. Anticipation of a Federal Reserve pivot to interest rate cuts in the first half of 2024
Comparison of S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
Source: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/05/the-s-p-500-dow-and-nasdaq-since-their-2000-highs
S&P500
Dow
Nasdaq
Stocks
Roughly the 500 largest
U.S. stocks spanning 11
sectors
30 well-established "blue-chip"
stocks
Over 3,000 stocks with a
heavy focus on the technology
sector
Weighting
Based on market
capitalization (시가총액)
Based on stock prices
Based on market
capitalization (시가총액)
A more comprehensive view
of the broad market's
performance
A more conservative and limited
representation of the broader
market
A popular benchmark for
technology and growth
companies
Role
Comparison of S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
Source: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/05/the-s-p-500-dow-and-nasdaq-since-their-2000-highs
* Nominal price, excluding dividends
Comparison of S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
Source: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/05/the-s-p-500-dow-and-nasdaq-since-their-2000-highs
* Adjusted for inflation based on CPI
Comparison of S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
Source: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/05/the-s-p-500-dow-and-nasdaq-since-their-2000-highs
Comparison of S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
Source: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/05/the-s-p-500-dow-and-nasdaq-since-their-2000-highs
SPY ETF Performance (S&P500)
Comparison of S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
Source: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/05/the-s-p-500-dow-and-nasdaq-since-their-2000-highs
DIA ETF Performance (DOW)
Comparison of S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
Source: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/05/the-s-p-500-dow-and-nasdaq-since-their-2000-highs
QQQ ETF Performance (Nasdaq)
Comparison of S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
Source: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/05/the-s-p-500-dow-and-nasdaq-since-their-2000-highs
Compound Annual Return on $1,000 invested at 2000 peak
(As of January 31, 2024)
Index
2000 High
Nominal
Real
DOW
January 14
7.34% ($5,494)
4.71% ($3,027)
S&P500
March 24
6.59% ($4,590)
4.02% ($2,564)
Nasdaq
March 10
6.25% ($4,264)
3.70% ($2,382)
Comparison of Dow and Nasdaq in the past 10 years
Source:https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-dow-jones-just-hit-an-all-time-high.-heres-why-it-could-beat-the-nasdaq-in-2024.
The Nasdaq has beat the Dow in eight of the last 10 years
INDEX
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Nasdaq
43.3%
(33.1%)
21.4
%
43.6%
35.2%
(3.9%)
28.2%
7.5%
5.7%
13.4%
Dow Jones
12.8%
(8.8%)
18.7
%
7.3%
22.3%
(5.6%)
25.1%
13.4%
(2.2%)
7.5%
Because…
❏Dow has a higher focus on value and income, whereas Nasdaq focuses less on value and income.
❏Nasdaq is where it's at in terms of megatrends in a decade.
The industries that have contributed to economic growth over the last decade, a lot of them are tech-related.
❏Investors are banking on future earnings, not present earnings.