ourna l of
PEACEBUILDING
DEVELOPMENT
Briefing
Big Data, New Technologies,
and Sustainable Peace:
Challenges and Opportunities
for the UN
Journal of Peacebuilding
& Development
2020, Vol. 15(1) 122-126
ª The Author(s) 2019
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DOI: 10.1177/1542316619868984
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Martin Wählisch
United Nations Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, New York, NY, USA
Big data and new technologies have been increasingly acknowledged as critical tools to foster
sustainable peace (Colarsei & Mahmood, 2017;
Hattotuwa, 2013). In 2018, United Nations (UN)
Secretary General released his Strategy on New
Technologies to accelerate the technology agenda
of the UN. In 2014, the Expert Panel on Technology and Innovation in UN Peacekeeping had called
for enhanced digital practice and training across all
peace operations including the establishment of
a cadre of “technology scouts” (UN 2014). However, whilst the UN’s development and humanitarian entities have introduced empirical approaches
and digital tools, the peace and security pillar is
still in the early stages of exploring data-driven
and new technology–based solutions.
This practitioner briefing reflects on lessons
learned related to capacity-building and the use
of big data and new technologies in the peace
and security context of the UN. It highlights how
the UN is actively exploring the use of new digital tools and empirical techniques and pursuing
training of staff to advance skills and prototyping.
The briefing points out the need for a shift in the
institutional culture and systemic approach of the
organisation in this regard to make the UN fit for
purpose in the 21st century.
New Technologies and Big Data as
UN Frontier Issues
The use of new technologies and big data has
been extensively discussed in the UN in the
context of development and humanitarian issues
(Meier, 2015; Walsham, 2017). In 2009, the Secretary General launched UN Global Pulse to
explore the harnessing of big data to help achieve
the Post-2015 Development Agenda and Sustainable Development Goals. A key argument for the
use of big data has been that traditional statistics,
household surveys, and census data have been
effective in tracking medium to long-term development trends but are less suitable in generating
instant situational pictures to plan and implement
more timely development interventions (Hilbert,
2016). In addition, the digital revolution has generated an unprecedented volume of data because
of the worldwide use of Internet and mobile
phone–based services that can be harnessed for
insights on population movements, public perceptions and intentions, health and hazard developments, and other large-scale public issues
(Qadir et al., 2016).
The application of new technologies and big data
in the peace and security area is, in comparison to
the development and humanitarian pillar of the
UN (Building data responsibility into humanitarian action., 2016; UNDP, 2012), still in an early
phase. In 2014, the Expert Panel on Technology
and Innovation in UN Peacekeeping pointed out
that “information is a political resource” and that
Corresponding Author:
Martin Waehlisch, United Nations Department of Political
Affairs, New York, NY 10017, USA.
Email:waehlisch@un.org
Wählisch
open-source information based on social media,
crowdsourcing, and big data should be used for the
efforts of the organisation (Perera, 2017). The
Panel stressed that voice, video, and data from
commercial satellites, sensor networks, and other
technical feeds are available and need to be used
by UN decision makers. The report suggested the
introduction of “digital peacekeeper” equipped
with up-to-date technologies (Dorn, 2018),
ongoing training, and data analysis capacities to
better carry out the UN’s peace and security mandate. The Expert Panel concluded that there is not
only a need for the immediate implementation of
new technologies but also for the institutionalisation of innovation and continuous technological
adaptation.
In 2018, the Secretary General sent with his Strategy on New Technologies the signal to the whole
UN system that the organisation must use new technologies to better deliver on its commitments in the
21st century. The Strategy called for the strengthening of data literacy within the Secretariat, promoted
data as a “transformative resource,” and advocated
for a “digital policy ecosystem” (UN, 2018).
Opportunities and Challenges
For the peace and security context, big data bears
the potential to enhance empirical and evidencedriven approaches to conflict prevention, peacemaking, and peacebuilding. A major benefit of
technology-focused efforts is the ability to expand
situational awareness particularly in settings
without political presence or limited access, for
instance, by mining social media, using machine
learning to analyses public news sources, or carry
out digital focus groups (Perry, 2013). Artificial
intelligence (AI), for example, can help to detect
patterns and political trends, monitor incidents,
and track changing community perceptions.
Both big data and technology combined offer the
opportunity to triangulate information and filter
out misinformation.
Despite the benefits, putting data and technology to
work for peace process and crisis management continues to face technical and operational challenges
(Garber & Carrette, 2018). Limited Internet access
and restrictions in conflict zones can be impeding
123
digital sentiment analysis or opinion mining. Data
privacy and data sensitives need to be also carefully
considered, including ethical dilemmas. Insufficient data and manipulated data can distort analytical conclusions. Another point to be mindful of is
the management of expectations as big data, and
new technologies cannot be a panacea for any analytical question in conflict prevention or any operational challenge in peacemaking. Part of tempering
hopes for quick and unique solutions needs to be the
understanding that the greater use of technology
comes at a cost. This includes transaction costs for
training staff in new technologies and the use of big
data, apart from actual purchasing costs of licenses
or budget to acquire and maintain internal programming talent. Digital tools can also only leverage
conflict prevention forecasts and diplomatic efforts
to a certain extent: Personal experience and gut
feeling for political nuances cannot be replaced
by machines, yet.
Capacity-Building and Lessons Learned
Over the last years, the Departments of Political
and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations
(DPPA/DPO) of the UN have been conducting
capacity-building exercises and promoting innovation projects with the aim to build a community
of practice, expand skills sets of political affairs
officers and analysts, and create space for experimentation and prototyping. A key objective was
also to enhance data literacy of staff with a
non-technical background in information systems
and technology. Topics included open-source
information gathering, the empirical study of
conflict, satellite imagery analysis, the use of virtual reality, and other means to visual conflictrelated data in immersive environments. Training
workshops tapped into existing online resources
and tools that can be used for analytical purposes,
including publicly available data sets on armed
conflict, to promote data-driven approaches to
short- and long-term developments of state fragility and other aspects of peace.
An observed lesson learned was that the peace
and security pillar lacks a dedicated “data warehouse,” comparative to Humanitarian Data
Exchange developed by UN humanitarian
124
colleagues. Such a platform could add value to
both the practitioner and research community.
There are open data portals on peacekeeping
operations, but they are limited to troop numbers,
logistics, and operational details. There are some
data frameworks produced by UN peace operations, such as on civilian casualties that are
already in the public domain in the context of
UNAMI or on the violations of lines of withdrawal in the context of UNIFIL, but those data
points are often hidden in UN reports and not
fully exploited as a resource for data-driven
analysis.
In terms of situational awareness, digital tools
and new technologies can allow for more
predictive analytics to enhance early warning
about emerging conflicts and operational risks.
E-analytics tools can help to broaden the view
on political developments, triangulate information, and fill blind spots. Some commercial
providers, such as Predata, have developed applications that are employed to forecast geopolitical
risks or at least to pool information about critical
events and breaking information, such as Dataminr. However, most of those tools are black box
solutions that can be only modified and customised to a certain extent. It will be crucial for the
UN to develop software that is open-source, interoperable, and device independent and build jointly
by the larger international technology community.
Skills to produce and utilise maps and satellite
imagery analysis for conflict prevention, peacemaking, and peacebuilding are equally important.
Particularly geospatial data can help to detect and
monitor unfolding humanitarian crises, armed
conflict, or political unrest (Convergne & Snyder, 2015). Satellite imagery analysis can be used
to monitor displacement, migration flows, or the
scale of destruction by war. Satellite or infrared
imagery can also be used to observe light emissions, topographic changes, and urban development sensing of changes in human activity due
to emerging conflict (UNDP/USAID/International Peace Institute, 2013). An example here
is the research of the World Bank (2017) that
used remote sensing to analyse how much oil
ISIL is producing that also helped to correct
political assumptions of the economic strength
Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 15(1)
of the terrorist group. Inspired by those examples,
projects of a similar kind are currently under
development in DPPA/DPO (e.g., satellite imagery analysis in the context of water dispute) to
make innovative and evidence-driven approaches
a stronger part of the peace and security pillar.
Conclusion
Big data and new technologies will take time to
become an integral part of the UN system (Mac
Ginty, 2017), particularly in the peace and security pillar, as it requires a shift of the institutional
culture of the organisation. Further internal institutional dialogue will be needed to define the
operational purpose of data and new technologies
with links to the underlying theory of change of
the organisation. A conversation about perceived
political sensitivities and ethical boundaries of
data collection in the sustaining peace context
will be a precondition to address myths about
what is politically unwarranted and practically
essential for the UN to perform its duties in the
21st century.
The UN sits on a gold mine of in-house accumulated data, including the performance of its
peacekeeping mission as well as its peacemaking
and conflict prevention experience, that is waiting to be more systematically and vigorously
explored and exploited. Recent reviews of the
UN’s field missions requested by the Security
Council (e.g., UNAMI; MINUJUSTH) have
brought some of those original and empirically
unique data sources to light on the strengthening
of justice and rule of law institutions, protection
of civilians, the reduction of violence, and other
issues. Additional data sets in the peace and
security context of the UN (e.g., speeches and
public messages, envoy activities, prevention
programmes) need to be developed and maintained to allow empirical insights into contributions of the organisation to sustaining peace,
external factors outsides its control, and overall
impacting geopolitical mega trends. In addition,
big data sources (e.g., social media, global
household statics) could help to respond to
emerging or unfolding crisis more effectively
or at least sharpen situational awareness.
Wählisch
125
Outside expertise and knowledge exchange with
both the private sector and the scholarly world
will be critical in this regard to better understand
what works and what does not outside the “UN
bubble” and adapt meaningful techniques and
suitable tools that fit the specific needs of the
UN. Experience in the organisation has shown
that off-the-shelf solutions of digital applications
do often not serve the granular needs of the organisation (e.g., sentiments in multiple dialects). At
the same time, the UN’s human resource pipeline
and institutional capital in the peace and security
pillar are not made for turning the organisation
partly into an IT company or start-up but rely
on strong partnerships with academia and technology partners that are willing to contribute collectively to the greater good of peace.
further for the benefit of the international community and peace.
In this endeavour, independent researchers and
academia at large could help the UN to scope
innovative methodologies, including discourses
around computational international relations, and
test models to predict conflict assisted by new
technologies in an applied science approach that
is tailored to the real-world tasks of the organisation. For this, the UN would need to open its
doors to its data archives and build interfaces for
such kind of exercises. Some have called on the
UN to invest in data-driven predictive methods
for promoting peace and a global AI consortium
(Weisi, Gleditsch, & Wilson, 2018), and, indeed,
a platform would be needed to bring scholars and
practitioners together to tackle global challenges to
peace more sustainably. The UN could also do better in creating opportunities for exchanges with and
between Member States, namely their foreign ministries and peacebuilding-development branches,
to step up shared capacities of data-driven, early
warning, and conflict-monitoring systems.
References
Finally, new technologies and big data will remain
frontier issues as the field is constantly innovating.
As this practitioner brief has tried to explain,
efforts have grown to bring the UN head of the
curve on this issue to advance conflict prevention,
peacemaking, and peacebuilding; however, there
is still a long way to go to catch up with academic
thinking and the private sector. Eventually, the
question should not be why and when to join the
data revolution but how to push the boundaries
Author’s Note
The views expressed herein are those of the author and
do not necessarily reflect the views of the United
Nations.
Declaration of Conflicting Interests
The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest
with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.
Funding
The author(s) received no financial support for the
research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.
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Author Biography
Martin Wählisch serves in Department of Political
and Peacebuilding Affairs of the United Nations in
New York. In addition to his work on the Middle East,
he focuses on the use of technology in peace processes
and for conflict prevention. He holds a PhD in international law and a MA in mediation.