Chapter 4: The macro economy (AS Level) 4.1 National income statistics A government measures a country’s total output to assess the performance of the country/economy. An economy is usually considered to be doing well if its output is growing at a sustainable rate. If an economy is growing at a slower rate then, the government should introduce policy measures to stimulate the economy. A government uses a wide range of measures (statistics) to measure its output. They are collectively called national income statistics. 4.1.1 Meaning of national income National Income of any country means the total value of the goods and services produced by any country during its financial year. It is thus the consequence of all economic activities that are running in any country during the period of one year. It is valued in terms of money. In short one can say that the national income of any country is the total amount of income that arises through various economic activities in one year. 4.1.2 Measurement of national income Some of the important measures of country’s output/national income include: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the most widely used measure of a country’s output. It is the money value of all the finished products produced in a fiscal year within the national boundary of a country. The output may be produced by the domestically owned or the foreign owned factors of production but they must be produced within the national boundary of the country. For example, GDP of UK includes the money value of all the finished products produced in UK by the domestically owned factors of production as well as the foreign factors located in the UK. Methods of measuring GDP Output method Income method Expenditure method Output method This method measures the GDP by adding up the money value of all the finished products (goods and services) produced by all the economic sectors of a country. The economic sectors of a country are primary, secondary and tertiary sector. So, according to this method, GDP is the sum of the money value of all the finished products produced by these three economic sectors. GDP= Money value of finished products produced by primary sector + Money value of finished products produced by the secondary sector + money value of services produced by the tertiary sector. The output method includes the value of only the finished products while measuring the GDP. It does not include the value of intermediate products. If the value of intermediate products (semi-finished products or inputs) is included, the problem of double counting will occur. So, to avoid the problem of double counting, only the value of finished products or the value added to the intermediate products are taken into account. For example, if a furniture manufacturer buys wood worth $20,000 and it manufactures furniture worth $30,000 then, the value added to wood is $10,000. In this case, to avoid the problem of double counting only the value of furniture ($30,000) or the value added to wood ($20,000 +$10,000) is taken into account. If the value of both wood and furniture is included then, there will be a problem of double counting and the value of GDP will be greater than the actual value. Income method This method measures the GDP by adding up the income received by all the factors of production that contribute to the production of finished products. The output produced is the combined efforts of land, labour, capital and enterprise. So, the value of output produced is eventually distributed among the factors of production in the form of rent, wages, interest and profit. According to the income method, GDP= Rent + wages +Interest + Profit The income method does not include the transfer payments like unemployment benefits, old age allowances, state pensions etc. in the value of GDP. This is because they are not the payments received for the production and exchange of goods and services rather they are just the transfer of income from one group to another. Expenditure Method This method measures the GDP by adding up all the expenditures that occur in the country in a fiscal year. All the expenditures that occur in a country in a year are broadly classified into the following four types: Private consumption expenditure (C) Private investment expenditure (I) Government spending on consumption and investment (G) Net exports (X-M) So according to the expenditure method, GDP=AD=AE=C+I+G+(X-M) All the above three methods should give the same value as all of them measure the output produced in an economy. The amount of income generated in an economy is the result of the output produced. So, Output = Income If it is assumed that all the income is spent then, Income= expenditure So by rule, Output = Income = expenditure Gross National Product (GNP) GNP is the money value of all the finished products produced in a year by the domestically owned factors of production. The output may be produced within or outside the national boundary of a country but they must be produced by the domestically owned factors of production. For example, GNP of UK includes the money value of all the finished products produced in a year by the domestically owned factors of production located within or outside the national boundary of UK. Mathematically, GNP = GDP + Net factor income from abroad Net factor income from abroad= Factor income received by the domestically owned factors located abroad – factor payments made to the foreign factors located in the country. Net Domestic Product (NDP) NDP is the money value of all the finished products produced in a year within the national boundary of a country after deducting the depreciation charges or capital consumption. So, NDP = GDP - Depreciation / capital consumption Net National Product (NNP) or Net National Income (NNI) NNP is the money value of all the finished products produced in a year by the domestically owned factors of production after deducting depreciation charges or capital consumption. So, NNP= GNP- Depreciation/ capital consumption NNP is also called the national income and can be considered the best measure of country’s output. This is because it includes the value of output produced abroad by the domestically owned factors, excludes the value of output produced in the country by the foreign factors and deducts the depreciation of capital goods that occur while producing the finished products. 4.1.3 Adjustment of measures from market prices to basic prices GDP at market price and GDP at factor cost GDP at market price is the GDP measured in terms of the prices of the goods in the shops or other retail outlets. GDP at market price = C+I+G+(X-M) GDP at factor cost is the GDP measured in terms of the prices of the factors of production used to produce the finished products. It is obtained by deducting the indirect taxes and adding subsidies to the GDP at market price. Indirect taxes are deducted as they increase the market price of the products and subsidies are added as they reduce the market price of the products. So, GDP at factor cost = GDP at market price – indirect taxes + subsidies 4.1.4 Adjustment of measures from gross values to net values Gross value of a country’s income / output can be converted to net values by deducting the depreciation charges or capital consumption. For example GDP is converted into NDP by deducting the depreciation charges or capital consumption. Similarly, deducting the depreciation charges or capital consumption from the GNP gives the NNP. So, NDP = GDP – depreciation or capital consumption. NNP = GNP – depreciation or capital consumption Money GDP and real GDP Money GDP or Nominal GDP is the GDP measured in terms of the prices of the goods in the year in which they are produced. It is also called the GDP at current prices and is the measure that has not been adjusted to inflation. Example: Total output produced in 2010= 200,000 units Price level = $5 So, Money GDP in 2010 = $1000, 000 Total output in 2012 = 200,000 units Price level = $8 So, Money GDP in 2012 = $1600, 000 Money GDP may give a misleading picture about the country’s performance. It may increase not because of an increase in the output but simply because of an increase in the price level. So, to get a true picture of the country’s performance the money GDP has to be converted into real GDP. It is the GDP measured in constant prices and is the measure that has been adjusted to inflation. By converting the money GDP into real GDP, the effect of inflation is removed. Money GDP is converted into real GDP using the price index. The price index used to convert the money GDP into real GDP is called the GDP deflator. It measures the value of output produced and not the value of output consumed. Mathematically, Real GDP = Money GDP (Year 1) x Current year price index = 𝑩𝒂𝒔𝒆 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓 𝒑𝒓𝒊𝒄𝒆 𝒊𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒙 𝑪𝒖𝒓𝒓𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓 𝒑𝒓𝒊𝒄𝒆 𝒊𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒙 (𝑮𝑫𝑷 𝒅𝒆𝒇𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒐𝒓) 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙 𝐵𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙 x 100 Example: 1 Total output produced in 2010 = 200,000 units Price level = $5 So, Money GDP in 2010 = $1000, 000 Total output in 2012 = 200,000 units Price level = $8 So, Money GDP in 2012 = $1600, 000 Real GDP = $1600, 000 x 𝟏𝟎𝟎 𝟏𝟔𝟎 [Price Index= $8/$5 x 100 =160] = $1000, 000 Example: 2 Total output produced in 2010= 200,000 units Price level = $5 So, Money GDP in 2010 = $1000, 000 Total output in 2012 = 300,000 units Price level = $8 So, Money GDP in 2012 = $2400, 000 Real GDP = $2400, 000 x 𝟏𝟎𝟎 𝟏𝟔𝟎 = $1500, 000 % increase in money GDP =140 % % increase in real GDP = 50% Exercise: In 2016 a country’s GDP is $1000. In 2017 nominal/ money GDP rises to $1092 and the price index increases by 4%. Calculate: Real GDP % increase in Money GDP % increase in real GDP Real GDP = Money GDP (Year 1) x 𝑩𝒂𝒔𝒆 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓 𝒑𝒓𝒊𝒄𝒆 𝒊𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒙 𝑪𝒖𝒓𝒓𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓 𝒑𝒓𝒊𝒄𝒆 𝒊𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒙 =$1092 x 100/104 =1050 % increase in money GDP = 9.2% % increase in real GDP = 5% xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx