EDA Coal Price x Sales Service Oktober 2023 Contents 1. General Concept 2. Coal Price Prediction 3. Correlation Analysis Between Coal Price & Sales Service Macro Perspective General Concept Finding correlation between coal price and sales service Micro Perspective "How is the impact of coal price trend to sales service?" EDA Coal x Sales --> as insight for future project: Service Sales Prediction Contents 1. General Concept 2. Coal Price Prediction 3. Correlation Analysis Between Coal Price & Sales Service Contents 1. General Concept 2. Coal Price Prediction 3. Correlation Analysis Between Coal Price & Sales Service EDA Coal Price - Sales Services Coal Price Revenue (dalam miliar) Trend Revenue x Coal Price EDA Coal Price - Sales Services Analisis Korelasi ❑ Digunakan untuk mengukur keterkaitan linear antara 2 variabel ❑ Nilainya diantara –1 sampai +1 ❑ Niali mendekati 0 berari tidak ada keterkaitan linear antara 2 variabel ❑ Nilai mendekati –1 berarti tidak ada keterkaitan negatif (tren linear negatif) atau ada hubungan yang berlawan arah ❑ Nilai mendekati +1 bearti ada keterkaitan positif (tren linear positif) atau ada hubungan yang searah Bukan hubungan sebab akibat!! Formula koefisien korelasi : Adanya outlier akan memengaruhi nilai korelasi r= koefisien korelasi x= nilai variabel x y = nilai variabel y ❑ Asumsi: ❑ Jika nilai sales service berkorelasi tinggi dengan coal price, maka kita bisa melakukan sales service prediction dengan menggunakan coal price sebagai salah satu parameter utamanya EDA Coal Price - Sales Service (Periode 201801 – 202308) Sales Service (All) - Corr 48% Sales Service (MNG) - Corr 56% Sales Service (Non MNG) - Corr 34% Sales Service (Reman) - Corr 34% Jika coal price menurun bulan ini, sales service akan terimpact 5 bulan kemudian Lag (month) Corr Lag (month) Corr Lag (month) Corr Lag (month) Corr Lag1 53% Lag1 59% Lag1 39% Lag1 44% Lag2 60% Lag2 65% Lag2 45% Lag2 48% Lag3 69% Lag3 75% Lag3 53% Lag3 57% Lag4 71% Lag4 76% Lag4 55% Lag4 52% Lag5 77% Lag5 77% Lag5 64% Lag5 52% Lag6 75% Lag6 76% Lag6 62% Lag6 54% Lag7 73% Lag7 74% Lag7 61% Lag7 59% Lag8 75% Lag8 73% Lag8 64% Lag8 51% Lag9 77% Lag9 77% Lag9 68% Lag9 45% Lag10 77% Lag10 75% Lag10 69% Lag10 32% Lag11 75% Lag11 74% Lag11 68% Lag11 41% Lag12 75% Lag12 77% Lag12 67% Lag12 37% EDA Coal Price - Sales Services (Periode 201801 – 202308) Transaksi service FMC cenderung tidak berkorelasi dengan coal price. Namun transaksi non-FMC berkorelasi tinggi dengan coal price di lag-5 bulan yaitu sebesar 83% Sales Service (non- FMC) - Corr 61% Sales Service (FMC) - Corr 21% Revenue:Svc-FMC Revenue:Rental Unit Revenue:Svc-Field Revenue:REM-Workshop Revenue:Svc-Workshop Revenue:Svc-PAP Lag (month) Corr Lag1 31% Lag (month) Corr Lag2 40% Lag1 62% Lag3 47% Lag2 66% Lag4 50% Lag3 75% Lag5 55% Lag4 77% Lag6 56% Lag5 83% Lag7 58% Lag6 79% Lag8 65% Lag7 75% Lag9 70% Lag8 74% Lag10 73% Lag9 74% Lag11 73% Lag10 72% Lag12 73% Lag11 72% Lag12 71% EDA Coal Price - Sales Services (Deep Dive for Each Job Service) Kontribusi revenue per job service : Data tahun 2018-2023 EDA Coal Price - Sales Services (Deep Dive for Each Job Service) Korelasi per Job Services : Note : Melakukan cek korelasi dengan features lag coal price. Asumsi bahwa ada pengaruh coal price yang terjadi pada bulan selanjutnya. Periode 201801-202308 Revenue di Job R&I Corr : 58% Periode 201801-202308 Revenue di Job TRS Corr : 61% Lag_coal price Corr Lag_coal price Corr Lag1 61% Lag1 52% Lag2 63% Lag2 49% Lag3 68% Lag3 55% Lag4 74% Lag4 60% Lag5 78% Lag5 78% Lag6 73% Lag6 62% Lag7 72% Lag7 56% Lag8 73% Lag8 54% Lag9 72% Lag9 44% Lag10 74% Lag10 52% Lag11 73% Lag11 46% Lag12 73% Lag12 42% EDA Coal Price - Sales Services Korelasi per Job Services : Note : Melakukan cek korelasi dengan features lag coal price. Asumsi bahwa ada pengaruh coal price yang terjadi pada bulan selanjutnya. Periode 201801-202308 Revenue di Job PPS Corr : 27% Periode 201801-202308 Revenue di Job PAP Corr : 37% Lag_coal price Corr Lag_coal price Corr Lag1 33% Lag1 46% Lag2 34% Lag2 49% Lag3 37% Lag3 57% Lag4 38% Lag4 59% Lag5 42% Lag5 64% Lag6 37% Lag6 68% Lag7 39% Lag7 70% Lag8 42% Lag8 70% Lag9 42% Lag9 67% Lag10 32% Lag10 72% Lag11 30% Lag11 78% Lag12 28% Lag12 78% EDA Coal Price - Sales Services Korelasi per Job Services : Note : Melakukan cek korelasi dengan features lag coal price. Asumsi bahwa ada pengaruh coal price yang terjadi pada bulan selanjutnya. Periode 201801-202308 Revenue di Job OVH Corr : 30% Periode 201801-202308 Revenue di Job BMI Corr : -65% Lag_coal price Corr Lag_coal price Corr Lag1 30% Lag1 -69% Lag2 35% Lag2 -70% Lag3 35% Lag3 -74% Lag4 39% Lag4 -74% Lag5 48% Lag5 -73% Lag6 46% Lag6 -71% Lag7 43% Lag7 -68% Lag8 37% Lag8 -67% Lag9 43% Lag9 -63% Lag10 39% Lag10 -62% Lag11 43% Lag11 -68% Lag12 44% Lag12 -54% EDA Coal Price - Sales Services Korelasi per Job Services : Note : Melakukan cek korelasi dengan features lag coal price. Asumsi bahwa ada pengaruh coal price yang terjadi pada bulan selanjutnya. Periode 201801-202308 Revenue di Job PPM Corr : 25% Periode 201801-202308 Revenue di Job CON Corr : 33% Lag_coal price Corr Lag_coal price Corr Lag1 22% Lag1 34% Lag2 24% Lag2 35% Lag3 29% Lag3 40% Lag4 35% Lag4 45% Lag5 35% Lag5 50% Lag6 36% Lag6 46% Lag7 20% Lag7 46% Lag8 18% Lag8 44% Lag9 16% Lag9 44% Lag10 23% Lag10 43% Lag11 34% Lag11 45% Lag12 28% Lag12 47% EDA Coal Price - Sales Services Korelasi per Job Services : Note : Melakukan cek korelasi dengan features lag coal price. Asumsi bahwa ada pengaruh coal price yang terjadi pada bulan selanjutnya. Periode 201801-202308 Revenue di Job PAC Corr : 19% Periode 201801-202308 Revenue di Job PPI Corr : -31% Lag_coal price Corr Lag_coal price Corr Lag1 21% Lag1 -35% Lag2 19% Lag2 -40% Lag3 26% Lag3 -37% Lag4 36% Lag4 -36% Lag5 33% Lag5 -35% Lag6 15% Lag6 -41% Lag7 24 Lag7 -43% Lag8 22% Lag8 -41% Lag9 17% Lag9 -40% Lag10 17% Lag10 -36% Lag11 -0.9% Lag11 -38% Lag12 -1% Lag12 -39% EDA Coal Price - Sales Services Korelasi per Job Services : Note : Melakukan cek korelasi dengan features lag coal price. Asumsi bahwa ada pengaruh coal price yang terjadi pada bulan selanjutnya. Periode 201801-202308 Revenue di Job PSV Corr : -55% Periode 201801-202308 Revenue di Job PDL Corr : 36% Lag_coal price Corr Lag_coal price Corr Lag1 -53% Lag1 36% Lag2 -50% Lag2 37% Lag3 -46% Lag3 40% Lag4 -44% Lag4 42% Lag5 -41% Lag5 40% Lag6 -38% Lag6 36% Lag7 -36% Lag7 44% Lag8 -34% Lag8 37% Lag9 -33% Lag9 45% Lag10 -32% Lag10 45% Lag11 -27% Lag11 52% Lag12 -23% Lag12 53% EDA Coal Price - Sales Services Korelasi per Job Services : Note : Melakukan cek korelasi dengan features lag coal price. Asumsi bahwa ada pengaruh coal price yang terjadi pada bulan selanjutnya. Periode 201801-202308 Revenue di Job PRM Corr : -26% Periode 201801-202308 Revenue di Job DEL Corr : -4% Lag_coal price Corr Lag_coal price Lag1 -25% Lag1 Lag2 -23% Lag2 Lag3 -23% Lag3 Lag4 -25% Lag4 Lag5 -24% Lag5 Lag6 -21% Lag6 Lag7 -20% Lag7 Lag8 -20% Lag8 Lag9 -19% Lag9 Lag10 -18% Lag10 Lag11 -19% Lag11 Lag12 -20% Lag12 Corr EDA Coal Price - Sales Services Korelasi per Job Services : Periode 201801-202308 Revenue di Job SVC Corr : 3% Note : Melakukan cek korelasi dengan features lag coal price. Asumsi bahwa ada pengaruh coal price yang terjadi pada bulan selanjutnya. EDA Coal Price - Sales Services We learn from 2018 to 2020 which coal price drop, we analyze which customer that resilience with coal price drops Insight: 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 Although coal price drop, KPP still constant service sales . While coal price drop, KPP stop their investment to heavy equipment. This is customer example that need to be maintain in 2024. Insight: SIS probably will decline the service revenue go side by side with the coal price flows. In KCM, SIS almost stop their investment for heavy equipment unit but for service, still regularly transaction but it is declined. EDA Coal Price - Sales Services We try to find more MNG customers like KPP to be maintained in 2024 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 EDA Coal Price - Sales Services We try to find more MNG customers like KPP to be maintained in 2024 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 EDA Coal Price - Sales Services We try to find more MNG customers like KPP to be maintained in 2024 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020