Uploaded by Stevanus Edwin Eka Aditiyanto

EDA Coal Price x SS

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EDA Coal Price x Sales Service
Oktober 2023
Contents
1. General Concept
2. Coal Price Prediction
3. Correlation Analysis Between Coal Price & Sales Service
Macro
Perspective
General Concept
Finding correlation between coal
price and sales service
Micro
Perspective
"How is the impact of coal price
trend to sales service?"
EDA Coal x Sales
--> as insight for future project:
Service Sales Prediction
Contents
1. General Concept
2. Coal Price Prediction
3. Correlation Analysis Between Coal Price & Sales Service
Contents
1. General Concept
2. Coal Price Prediction
3. Correlation Analysis Between Coal Price & Sales Service
EDA Coal Price - Sales Services
Coal Price
Revenue (dalam miliar)
Trend Revenue x Coal Price
EDA Coal Price - Sales Services
Analisis Korelasi
❑ Digunakan untuk mengukur keterkaitan linear antara 2 variabel
❑ Nilainya diantara –1 sampai +1
❑ Niali mendekati 0 berari tidak ada keterkaitan linear antara 2 variabel
❑ Nilai mendekati –1 berarti tidak ada keterkaitan negatif (tren linear negatif) atau
ada hubungan yang berlawan arah
❑ Nilai mendekati +1 bearti ada keterkaitan positif (tren linear positif) atau ada
hubungan yang searah
Bukan hubungan
sebab akibat!!
Formula koefisien korelasi :
Adanya outlier akan
memengaruhi nilai
korelasi
r= koefisien korelasi
x= nilai variabel x
y = nilai variabel y
❑ Asumsi:
❑ Jika nilai sales service berkorelasi tinggi dengan coal price, maka kita bisa
melakukan sales service prediction dengan menggunakan coal price
sebagai salah satu parameter utamanya
EDA Coal Price - Sales Service (Periode 201801 – 202308)
Sales Service (All) - Corr 48%
Sales Service (MNG) - Corr 56%
Sales Service (Non MNG) - Corr 34%
Sales Service (Reman) - Corr 34%
Jika coal price
menurun bulan
ini, sales service
akan terimpact 5
bulan kemudian
Lag (month)
Corr
Lag (month)
Corr
Lag (month)
Corr
Lag (month)
Corr
Lag1
53%
Lag1
59%
Lag1
39%
Lag1
44%
Lag2
60%
Lag2
65%
Lag2
45%
Lag2
48%
Lag3
69%
Lag3
75%
Lag3
53%
Lag3
57%
Lag4
71%
Lag4
76%
Lag4
55%
Lag4
52%
Lag5
77%
Lag5
77%
Lag5
64%
Lag5
52%
Lag6
75%
Lag6
76%
Lag6
62%
Lag6
54%
Lag7
73%
Lag7
74%
Lag7
61%
Lag7
59%
Lag8
75%
Lag8
73%
Lag8
64%
Lag8
51%
Lag9
77%
Lag9
77%
Lag9
68%
Lag9
45%
Lag10
77%
Lag10
75%
Lag10
69%
Lag10
32%
Lag11
75%
Lag11
74%
Lag11
68%
Lag11
41%
Lag12
75%
Lag12
77%
Lag12
67%
Lag12
37%
EDA Coal Price - Sales Services (Periode 201801 – 202308)
Transaksi service FMC cenderung tidak berkorelasi dengan coal price. Namun transaksi non-FMC berkorelasi
tinggi dengan coal price di lag-5 bulan yaitu sebesar 83%
Sales Service (non- FMC) - Corr 61%
Sales Service (FMC) - Corr 21%
Revenue:Svc-FMC
Revenue:Rental Unit
Revenue:Svc-Field
Revenue:REM-Workshop
Revenue:Svc-Workshop
Revenue:Svc-PAP
Lag (month)
Corr
Lag1
31%
Lag (month)
Corr
Lag2
40%
Lag1
62%
Lag3
47%
Lag2
66%
Lag4
50%
Lag3
75%
Lag5
55%
Lag4
77%
Lag6
56%
Lag5
83%
Lag7
58%
Lag6
79%
Lag8
65%
Lag7
75%
Lag9
70%
Lag8
74%
Lag10
73%
Lag9
74%
Lag11
73%
Lag10
72%
Lag12
73%
Lag11
72%
Lag12
71%
EDA Coal Price - Sales Services (Deep Dive for Each Job Service)
Kontribusi revenue per job service :
Data tahun 2018-2023
EDA Coal Price - Sales Services (Deep Dive for Each Job Service)
Korelasi per Job Services :
Note : Melakukan cek korelasi dengan features lag coal price.
Asumsi bahwa ada pengaruh coal price yang terjadi pada
bulan selanjutnya.
Periode 201801-202308
Revenue di Job R&I
Corr : 58%
Periode 201801-202308
Revenue di Job TRS
Corr : 61%
Lag_coal
price
Corr
Lag_coal
price
Corr
Lag1
61%
Lag1
52%
Lag2
63%
Lag2
49%
Lag3
68%
Lag3
55%
Lag4
74%
Lag4
60%
Lag5
78%
Lag5
78%
Lag6
73%
Lag6
62%
Lag7
72%
Lag7
56%
Lag8
73%
Lag8
54%
Lag9
72%
Lag9
44%
Lag10
74%
Lag10
52%
Lag11
73%
Lag11
46%
Lag12
73%
Lag12
42%
EDA Coal Price - Sales Services
Korelasi per Job Services :
Note : Melakukan cek korelasi dengan features
lag coal price. Asumsi bahwa ada pengaruh coal
price yang terjadi pada bulan selanjutnya.
Periode 201801-202308
Revenue di Job PPS
Corr : 27%
Periode 201801-202308
Revenue di Job PAP
Corr : 37%
Lag_coal
price
Corr
Lag_coal
price
Corr
Lag1
33%
Lag1
46%
Lag2
34%
Lag2
49%
Lag3
37%
Lag3
57%
Lag4
38%
Lag4
59%
Lag5
42%
Lag5
64%
Lag6
37%
Lag6
68%
Lag7
39%
Lag7
70%
Lag8
42%
Lag8
70%
Lag9
42%
Lag9
67%
Lag10
32%
Lag10
72%
Lag11
30%
Lag11
78%
Lag12
28%
Lag12
78%
EDA Coal Price - Sales Services
Korelasi per Job Services :
Note : Melakukan cek korelasi dengan features
lag coal price. Asumsi bahwa ada pengaruh coal
price yang terjadi pada bulan selanjutnya.
Periode 201801-202308
Revenue di Job OVH
Corr : 30%
Periode 201801-202308
Revenue di Job BMI
Corr : -65%
Lag_coal
price
Corr
Lag_coal
price
Corr
Lag1
30%
Lag1
-69%
Lag2
35%
Lag2
-70%
Lag3
35%
Lag3
-74%
Lag4
39%
Lag4
-74%
Lag5
48%
Lag5
-73%
Lag6
46%
Lag6
-71%
Lag7
43%
Lag7
-68%
Lag8
37%
Lag8
-67%
Lag9
43%
Lag9
-63%
Lag10
39%
Lag10
-62%
Lag11
43%
Lag11
-68%
Lag12
44%
Lag12
-54%
EDA Coal Price - Sales Services
Korelasi per Job Services :
Note : Melakukan cek korelasi dengan features
lag coal price. Asumsi bahwa ada pengaruh coal
price yang terjadi pada bulan selanjutnya.
Periode 201801-202308
Revenue di Job PPM
Corr : 25%
Periode 201801-202308
Revenue di Job CON
Corr : 33%
Lag_coal
price
Corr
Lag_coal
price
Corr
Lag1
22%
Lag1
34%
Lag2
24%
Lag2
35%
Lag3
29%
Lag3
40%
Lag4
35%
Lag4
45%
Lag5
35%
Lag5
50%
Lag6
36%
Lag6
46%
Lag7
20%
Lag7
46%
Lag8
18%
Lag8
44%
Lag9
16%
Lag9
44%
Lag10
23%
Lag10
43%
Lag11
34%
Lag11
45%
Lag12
28%
Lag12
47%
EDA Coal Price - Sales Services
Korelasi per Job Services :
Note : Melakukan cek korelasi dengan features
lag coal price. Asumsi bahwa ada pengaruh coal
price yang terjadi pada bulan selanjutnya.
Periode 201801-202308
Revenue di Job PAC
Corr : 19%
Periode 201801-202308
Revenue di Job PPI
Corr : -31%
Lag_coal
price
Corr
Lag_coal
price
Corr
Lag1
21%
Lag1
-35%
Lag2
19%
Lag2
-40%
Lag3
26%
Lag3
-37%
Lag4
36%
Lag4
-36%
Lag5
33%
Lag5
-35%
Lag6
15%
Lag6
-41%
Lag7
24
Lag7
-43%
Lag8
22%
Lag8
-41%
Lag9
17%
Lag9
-40%
Lag10
17%
Lag10
-36%
Lag11
-0.9%
Lag11
-38%
Lag12
-1%
Lag12
-39%
EDA Coal Price - Sales Services
Korelasi per Job Services :
Note : Melakukan cek korelasi dengan features
lag coal price. Asumsi bahwa ada pengaruh coal
price yang terjadi pada bulan selanjutnya.
Periode 201801-202308
Revenue di Job PSV
Corr : -55%
Periode 201801-202308
Revenue di Job PDL
Corr : 36%
Lag_coal
price
Corr
Lag_coal
price
Corr
Lag1
-53%
Lag1
36%
Lag2
-50%
Lag2
37%
Lag3
-46%
Lag3
40%
Lag4
-44%
Lag4
42%
Lag5
-41%
Lag5
40%
Lag6
-38%
Lag6
36%
Lag7
-36%
Lag7
44%
Lag8
-34%
Lag8
37%
Lag9
-33%
Lag9
45%
Lag10
-32%
Lag10
45%
Lag11
-27%
Lag11
52%
Lag12
-23%
Lag12
53%
EDA Coal Price - Sales Services
Korelasi per Job Services :
Note : Melakukan cek korelasi dengan features
lag coal price. Asumsi bahwa ada pengaruh coal
price yang terjadi pada bulan selanjutnya.
Periode 201801-202308
Revenue di Job PRM
Corr : -26%
Periode 201801-202308
Revenue di Job DEL
Corr : -4%
Lag_coal
price
Corr
Lag_coal
price
Lag1
-25%
Lag1
Lag2
-23%
Lag2
Lag3
-23%
Lag3
Lag4
-25%
Lag4
Lag5
-24%
Lag5
Lag6
-21%
Lag6
Lag7
-20%
Lag7
Lag8
-20%
Lag8
Lag9
-19%
Lag9
Lag10
-18%
Lag10
Lag11
-19%
Lag11
Lag12
-20%
Lag12
Corr
EDA Coal Price - Sales Services
Korelasi per Job Services :
Periode 201801-202308
Revenue di Job SVC
Corr : 3%
Note : Melakukan cek korelasi dengan features
lag coal price. Asumsi bahwa ada pengaruh coal
price yang terjadi pada bulan selanjutnya.
EDA Coal Price - Sales Services
We learn from 2018 to 2020 which coal price drop,
we analyze which customer that resilience with coal price drops
Insight:
2018
2019
2020
2018
2019
2020
2018
2019
2020
2018
2019
2020
Although coal price drop, KPP still constant service sales . While
coal price drop, KPP stop their investment to heavy equipment.
This is customer example that need to be maintain in 2024.
Insight:
SIS probably will decline the service revenue go side by side with the coal
price flows. In KCM, SIS almost stop their investment for heavy equipment
unit but for service, still regularly transaction but it is declined.
EDA Coal Price - Sales Services
We try to find more MNG customers like KPP to be maintained in 2024
2018
2018
2019
2019
2020
2020
2018
2019
2020
2018
2019
2020
EDA Coal Price - Sales Services
We try to find more MNG customers like KPP to be maintained in 2024
2018
2019
2020
2018
2019
2020
2018
2018
2019
2019
2020
2020
EDA Coal Price - Sales Services
We try to find more MNG customers like KPP to be maintained in 2024
2018
2019
2020
2018
2019
2020
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