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The 56 year cycles & financial crises
Conference Paper · August 1986
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1
THE 56 YEAR CYCLES & FINANCIAL CRISES
David E. MCMINN
Paper contributed to the 15th Conference of Economists
held at Monash University, Melbourne. 25-29 August, 1986.
Reference
McMinn, David, 1986. The 56 Year Cycles & Financial Crises.
15th Conference of Economists. The Economics Society of Australia.
Monash University, Melbourne. 39p. August 25-29.
The most recent version of the paper:
McMinn, D,. 2021. 9/56 Year Cycle & Financial Panics.
Cycles Magazine. The Foundation for the Study of Cycles.
Vol 50, No 04. p 31-51. July.
2
THE 56 YEAR CYCLES & FINANCIAL CRISES
David E McMinn
“The Pythagoreans believe Typhon to be an demonic power for they say he was born on an even
measure – the 56th.” Plutarch. 100 AD.
Some investment analysts have reservations about the validity of cycles in the assessment of
business trends, despite extensive studies on this topic over many years. Most theories regard
economic cycles as occurring in variable waves of progressive expansion and contraction ad
infinitum. However, financial crises and ensuing recessions/depressionsare regarded as a series of
events repeating at reasonably consistenoccur every 56 years in sequences, which in turn are
interconnected by sub-cycles in multiples of 9 and 13 years. These cycles have a set period in which
they are operative, although some such as the 56 year cycles persist for such long time spans that
they may be regarded as continuous. The basic time units in these cycles are 9, 13 and 56 years.
Most major financial crises in the USA and Europe since 1760 either occur in the 56 year cycles or
are directly related to them. These trends should assist in forecasting the principle turning points in
US activity. The financial crises typically involves a period of over-optimism, greed and rampant
speculation, followed by a sharp decline and possibly a subsequent recession or depression. This
downturn usually lasts for about two years, which may be extended if there is a merging of cycles.
However the depth of a downturn cannot be predicted from these cycles. Each crisis is also unique
and cannot be compared with other crises in a particular sequence. A further problem arises as this
study only covers 220 years, which at most only involved four 56 year cycles in a particular
sequence. With so few examples, it becomes difficult to determine the very long cycles which
probably exist or to extrapolate into the future with a high degree of accuracy.
In order to explain the regular economic cycles involving the number 56, various astrological
factors were assessed. It is hypothesised that solunar cycles are the prime cause of financial crises.
THE 56 YEAR SEQUENCES
There are consistent 56 year sequences, which account for many of the major financial crises in
European and US economic history since 1760. Three 56 year sequences were first proposed by J
M Funk in The Cycles of Prosperity and Depression (1933) and published by David Williams (1) in
1959. For convenience these have been denoted as Sequences A, B and C with major crises
underlined. These major crises were derived from Joseph Kitchin's work on trade cycles (2) and
Charles P Kindlberger (3) (see Appendix). Kitchin's minor crises are given in parentheses in the
text.
SEQUENCE A
1761
1817
1873
1929
1985
US depression with the ending of the French and Indian War.
(Peace treaty not signed until 1763.)
US recession following an 1815-16 peak. (Also European
depression).
US panic at end of Industrial Over Expansion Prosperity. Followed
by 1873-79 depression. (Also German and Austrian crises).
US panic at end of New Era Prosperity. Followed by 1929-33
depression. (World crisis).
Inoperative.
3
SEQUENCE B
1781
1837
1893
1949
SEQUENCE C
1801
1857
1913
1969
US crisis with the ending of the Revolutionary War.
US panic at end of Bank Credit Land Boom. Followed by 1837-38
depression. (also English crisis – December 1836).
US panic. Followed by 1893-94 depression.
National Cordage Co bankrupt.
US recession. (Also recession in Europe).
Peace crisis (Europe). of Amiens. US crisis at end of Carrying Trade
Prosperity. Followed by 1801-03 depression.
US collapse at end of Gold Inflation Prosperity. Followed by 185759 depression. (World crisis).
US crisis due to the Second Balkans War. Followed by 1913-14 preWorld War I depression. (Also European crisis).
US near panic. Followed by 1969-70 recession.
Over the past two centuries the 13 years in Sequences A, B and C contained:
*
*
*
*
Five of the 6 most severe panics in US history (1837, 1857, 1873, 1893 and 1929, the
exception being 1907). Significantly, major crises were only evident in US economic history
between 1819 and 1929 and in this period 6 years show up in the three sequences (1837,
1857, 1873, 1893, 1913 and 1929).
Two additional major crises (1801 (in Europe) and 1913).
Five crises/downturns (1761, 1781, 1817, 1949 and 1969).
One inoperative year (1985).
1985 was the first inoperative year in these sequences during the past 220 years. There was a rural
depression in the USA, an OPEC price collapse and gyrations on the New York Stock Exchange,
but no crisis as such. No explanation may be given accounting for this divergence from such an
established trend. Another 56 year sequence was derived from work by Louise McWhirter (4).
SEQUENCE D (US only). (A depressionary rather than a crisis sequence).
1765 US recession. Stamp Act passed.
1821 1819-21 depression.
1877 1873-79 depression.
1933 US crisis (March). (Low (first quarter) of the 1929-33 depression.
1989 ? Late 1980's downturn.
Three additional 56 year sequences were delineated by the author.
SEQUENCE E
1769 US recession (minor).
1825 Panic after inflation (England). Beginning of 1825-29 US depression.
1881 Paris Bourse Crisis (January 1882).
1937 US crisis. Followed by 1938-39 depression.
1993 ? Crisis. Followed by mid-1990's recession/depression.
4
SEQUENCE F
1763 Crisis at the end of the Seven Years’ War (Continental).
1819 US and English crises. Depression of 1819-21 in the USA.
(1875) Collie failure (UK). Depression of 1873-79 in the USA.
1931 1929-33 US depression. Crises in Austria, Germany and the UK (May to September).
1987 ? Crisis.
SEQUENCE G
1772 Crisis. (England and Amsterdam) (January 1773).
1828 Crisis (France) (December 1827). Depression of 1825-29 in the USA.
(1884) US railroad collapse (May). Depression of 1884 in the USA.
1940 War crisis. (US recession).
1996 ? Crisis.
The 56 year sequences mark the beginning of most of the great recessions in US history: 1837-38,
1857-59, 1884-85, 1873-79, 1893-96, 1929-33 and 1937-38. The only severe recessions not
accounted for in these sequences are 1907-08 and 1920-21.
Sequences A, B, C, D, E and G fall within an 11 year period, which corresponds to a marked
contractionary phase in the US economy as in the:
*
1760's
Recessionary period. Followed by boom in 1771 and 1772-73 downturn.
*
1820's
Depression of 1819-21 and 1825-29.
*
1870's/1880's Depressions of 1873-70 and 1884-85.
*
1980's/1990/s Downturns late 1980's and mid-1990's.
Sequences A, B and C have a consistent bearing on US economic trends, with a major impact in
many years on England and the Continent. Sequences E, F and G influence both the USA and
Europe. In these sequences, some countries may experience financial upheavals, while other
countries avoid such turmoils. For example the 1882 crisis was largely confined to France, as was
the 1937 crisis to the USA. It is not possible to account for such trends from these figures.
Funk showed that 20 year sub-cycles existed between Sequences A, B and C. Table 1 illustrates this
trend and also includes Sequence D. These sub-cycles persisted for 60 years. In addition, 1847 –
After Railway Mania (England) and 1903 Rich Man's Panic (USA) fall mid way in these sub-cycles
between B and C.
Table 1
20 YEAR SUB-CYCLES AND US FINANCIAL CRISES
Sq A
Sq B
1817
1873
1929
1985
1781
1837
1893
1949
2005
+ 20
+ 20
+ 20
+ 20
+ 20
+ 20
+ 20
+ 20
Sq C
1745
1801
1857
1913
1969
+ 20
+ 20
+ 20
+ 20
+ 20
Sq D
1765
1821
1877
1933
1989
5
SUB-CYCLES IN MULTIPLES OF 9 YEARS
Sequences A, B, C and D may also be linked in 36 year sub-cycles, which last for 108 years.
Sequence F is found midway between Sequences B and C.
Table 2
36 YEAR SUB-CYCLES AND US FINANCIAL CRISES
Sq D
Sq C
Sq B
Sq A
1745
+ 36
1781
+ 36
1817
1765
+ 36
1801
+ 36
1837
+ 36
1873
1821
+ 36
1857
+ 36
1893
+ 36
1929
1877
+ 36
1913
+ 36
1949
+ 36
1985
1933
+ 36
1969
Nine year sub-cycles link Sequences B, C, F and G (see Table 3) and fall in the central portion of
the 36 year sub-cycles (ie between Sequences B and C).
Table 3
NINE YEAR SUB-CYCLES AND FINANCIAL CRISES
Sq*
Sq C
Sq**
Sq F
Sq G
Sq B
1763
1772
1781
1792
1801
1810
1819
1828
1837
1848
1857
1866
(1875)
(1884)
1893
1904
1913
1922
1931
1940
1949
1960
1969
1978
1987
1996
2005
*
1792 – After Canal Mania (England – February 1793), 1848 Crisis (Continent), 1904 Rich
Man's Panic (1903-04) and 1960 US recession.
**
1810 – Great Panic (England), 1866 – Crises (England and Italy), 1922 and 1978 were
inoperative.
Please note: Kitchin's minor crisis years in pararentheses.
Between 1760 and 1937, 23 years show up in the 9 and 36 year sub-cycles in Tables 2 and 3, of
which 16 are major financial crisis years. This includes Sequence D which is a depressionary rather
than a crisis sequence. In the same period, the total number of crisis years was 31 (excludes 1933 in
Sequences D).
Two notable 54 year cycles are also evident in financial history. Major financial crises have been
underlined.
*
1812
+ 54
1866
+ 54
1920
+ 54
1974
Beginning of the War of 1812 Depression (US).
English and Italian Crises. (UK Black Friday, May 11).
Crises after Inflation (UK and US).
US near panic. Collapse of Bretton Woods, OPEC price increases. (Worldwide)
6
*
1788 Post Revolutionary War Depression (US).
+ 54
1842 Debt Repudiation Depression (US).
+ 54
1896 Depression following the Recovery of 1895 (US).
SUB-CYCLES IN MULTIPLES OF 13 YEARS
The 13 year sub-cycles connect Sequences A, E and D as illustrated in Table 4. A number of
additional major crises fall in these sub-cycles.
Sq F
1869
1825
1881
1937
Table 4
13 YEAR SUB-CYCLES AND FINANCIAL CRISES
Sq D
1782
1795
1808
1821
1834
1847
(1860)
1838
1851
1864
1877
1890
1903
1916
1894
1907
1920
1933
1946
1959
1972
1950
1963
1976
1989
Sq A
1873
1929
1985
Major crises in the table not previously mentioned.
1847 – After Railway Mania.
1864 – French Crisis.
1890 – Baring Crisis.
1907 – US crisis.
1920 – Crisis fter Inflation (UK and USA).
Other crisis years.
1808 – Embargo Depression (US).
1834 – US recession.
1851 – US recession.
1903 – Rich Man's Panic (US).
1946 – Post WW II recession.
1959 – US recession.
THE MINOR CRISES
Kitchin listed some 15 minor crises in the nineteenth century, many of which occur in 9 year cycles
as shown in Table 5. The 1864 crisis year was classified by Kindlberger as major appearing in Table
4. This leaves five years not accounted for:
1805 – Semi crisis (England).
1814 – General Peace Crisis (Europe).
1831 – Calcutta failures (England).
1861 – US Crisis.
1870 – Franco Prussian War Crisis.
7
Four of these are found within 9/56 year cycles.
(1805)
+ 56
(1861)
+9
(1814)
+56
(1870)
+9
1831 is to be found in 13/56 year cycles.
1792
+ 13
(1805)
+ 13
1848
+ 13
(1861)
+ 13
* Depression in the US and Europe.
1818
1874*
+ 13
+ 13
(1831)
1887
+ 13
+ 13
Table 5
NINE YEAR CYCLES AND MINOR FINANCIAL CRISES
1818
+3
1821*
+3
1824*
1827
+3
1830*
+3
1833*
1836
+3
(1839)
+3
1842*
(1845)
+3
1848
+3
1951*
(1854)
+3
1857
+3
(1860)
(1863)
+3
1866
+3
1869
1872*
+3
(1875)
+3
(1878)
1881
+3
(1884)
+3
1887
1890
+3
(1893)
+3
1896
* Inoperative years.
NB: Kitchin's minor crisis years in pararentheses.
Major crises not previously mentioned.
1818 – US Crisis (November 1818 – June 1819)
1827 – French Crisis (December).
1836 – English Crisis (December).
Minor crisis years by Kitchin.
1830 – French crisis.
1839 – English crisis.
1842 – US Debt Repudiation Depression.
1845 – Railway Mania Panic (England).
1854 – US crisis.
1860 – US crisis.
1863 – US crisis.
1869 – US gold panic/Austrian National Bank failure.
1875 – Collie failure (England).
1878 – City of Glasgow Bank failure (UK).
1884 – US railway Collapse.
1887 – European stock market panics.
1896 – US and European Depressions.THE REMAINING CRISIS YEARS
1844
1900
8
In addition to those years already covered in the 56 year sequences, other major financial crises
since 1760 have happened in 1797, 1799, 1815, 1816, 1838, 1900, 1921, 1974 and 1975. The
Hamburg Crisis of 1799 fell midway between 1781 (Sequence B) and 1817 (Sequence A), while
1974 is in the 54 year sub-cycle (1812, 1866, 1920 and 1974). Other major crises occurred in a 7
year sub-cycle which persisted for 28 years or one half of a 56 year sequence.
*
1893
1900
1907
(1914)
1921
US panic.
German crisis.
US banking panic.
War panics – outbreak of WWI (August).
US and UK After Inflation crisis.
This leaves 1797, 1815, 1816, 1838 and 1975 of the crisis years listed by Kitchen and Kindlberger.
These are related to other major financial crises by adding 9 or 13 years, the exception being 1975.
Further cycles exist but for simiplicity discussion has been mainly confiined to major crises and
those sequences most relevant to the coming decade.
It should be noted that these sequences are exact with the crisis month to be found between March
of the sequence year to the February of the following year. Even so, there were exceptions
occurring a little early or a little late..
*
*
*
*
*
1797
1819
1828
1837.
1864
English crisis (February – June). Commenced one month early.
Sequence F. US crisis (November 1818 – June 1819).
Sequence . French crisis (December 1827),
Sequence C. English crisis (December 1836),
French Crisis (January 1864).
The years 1818, 1827, 1836 and 1863 are found in the minor 9 year cycles (see Table 5) and merge
with the major crisis years 1819. 1828, 1837 and 1864. It should be noted that Kitchin and
Kindlberger's data does not give a month for a number of major crises and thus one or two
additional exceptions may by evident.
CONSIDERING THE KONDRATIEFF WAVE
In the 1920's, Professor Kondratieff, the famous Russian economist, studied price trends and raw
material production levels in capilatist countries. His treatise was published in 1935 (5) and
hypothesised that Western economies fluctuated with major peaks every 45 to 60 years. His theory
incorporated three main phases.
Phase I. This is a long term expansionary period of up to 20 to 30 years from a depressionary low.In
this growth phase, escalating inflation and rising interest rates are evident with possible wars near
the lows (eg: the Mexican War of 1846-48 and World War II).
Phase II. A peak in price levels is apparent with rampant inflation, speculation, high commodity
prices and war: 1814 – War of 1812, 1864 – American Civil War, 1920 – World War I, 1974 –
Vietnam War. These peaks are followed by a primary recession and a subsequent plateau phase,
during which inflation slows and temorary political stability is achieved. This second phase lasts for
10 to 15 years.
9
Phase III. A sharp slump in business activity is experienced leading to a secondary recession. This
strong contractionary phase lasts for up to 25 years.
Many eminent economists do not believe such long waves exist in economic history. Paul
Samuelson (6), once described as the dean of US economists, believed Kondratieff Waves were
“nonsense” and “a statistical absurdity.” With this, the distinguished economist Charles Kindlberger
agreed stating “Kondratieff was like astrology.”
When comparing the various 56 and 54 year cycles with the Kondratieff Waves, it is apparent that
the nadirs (late 1780's, 1843 and 1896) approximate with the 54 year sub-cycle (1788, 1842 and
1896). This sequence did not extend beyond 1896 as 1950 was an expansionary year and the low
realigned with the late 1930's after 1937 in Sequence E.
In Phase I, economic growth is recorded with recessions/depressions if short duration lasting up to
two years. The principal 56 year sequences occur infrequently in this phase – 1801, 1857, 1913,
1949 and 1969. The primary recessions after the 1814, 1864, 1920 and 1970 peaks approximate to
the 54 year sub-cycle (1866, 1920 and 1974). The 1814 peak was followed by recession in 1817
(Sequence A) before the downphase commencing in 1819. Only 1817 of the major sequences is
found in Phase II.
The beginning of Phase III is marked by a crisis year – 1819, 1873 and 1929. The latter two are
contained in Sequence A, while 1819 is in Sequence F. Phase III is a protracted and depressionary
period because five 56 year sequences (Sequences A, D, E, F and G) all occur in an 11 year time
span. Further depressions were precipitated by the 1837 and 1896 crises (both in Sequence C) prior
to the Kondratieff lows.
It should be noted that Kondatieff only covered the period after the late 1780's. Prior US trends
diverged markedly from the Kondatieff model. The inflationary peak of 1780 happened within 34
years of the subsquent 1814 peak – a much shorter time span than evident in the following waves.
Also the 1780 peak did not have an ensuing plateau stage as the 1780's were depressionary. In the
current wave, inflation has kept rising well beyond the 1970 peak, in contrast to the sharp declines
shortly after 1814, 1864 and 1920. Despite such discrepancies, long waves do exist in economic
history.
10
THE 56 YEAR SEQUENCES AND WAR
The 56 year sequences do have a bearing on wars as many financial crises are related to revolution
and to the beginning and ending of wars.
War crisis years in the 9 and 36 year sub-cycles.
*
1745. Sq C English panic (Black Friday 5 December), Jacobite rebellion.
*
1761 Sq A Ending of the French and Indian War.
*
1763 Sq F Ending of the Seven Years War.
*
1781 Sq B Ending of the American Revolutionary War.
*
1792
French revolution. Heavy outflow of specie from Paris to London.
*
1801 Sq C Peace of Amiens Crisis.
*
1848
Political upheavals on the Continent.
Ending of the US – Mexican War.
*
1866
Austro Prussian War. (Berlin Bourse panic – 2 May).
*
1913 Sq C Second Balkans War.
*
1940 Sq G French capitulation.
THE AUSTRALIAN EXPERIENCE
Australian business cycles since 1820 diverge strongly from trends in Europe and the US. Even so
somekey years align with 56 year sequences on the Atlantic.
*1825
Sequence E
*1828
*1857
*1893
*1929-33
Sequence G
Sequence C
Sequence B
Sequences A, D, F
Sterling standard adopted resulting in foreign exchange
shortages in NSW.
End of the Pastoral Boom.
Late 1850's recession.
Australian Bank Crisis.
Australian early 1930's depression.
Problems arise in assessing Australian trends because:
*
There is limited historical data (post 1820) on which to base the 56 year sequences.
*
The Long Boom completely countered cycles in the US and Europe.
*
Australia has had only had three major depressions commencing 1840, 1890 and 1929.
PROGNOSTICATIONS
From Sequence A (1761, 1817, 1873, 1929 and 1985) of the 56 year cycles, it could have been
reasonably assumed that the US economy was going to experience a severe decline in 1985. This
did not materialise. However, in 1985 and the first half of 1986, there was excessive speculation in
shares and takeovers, international debt problems, an OPEC oil price collapse, huge budget and
trade deficits, a rural depression and numerous bank failures. Time may prove that the crisis of 1985
has been delayed well into 1986. No explanation may be given to account for such an aberration. It
will be very interesting to see how the New York Stock Exchange declines from its record high –
panic or near panic. A similar situation arose in 1929 when the stock market boomed to record
levels even though the business cycle was moving down. Further 56 year sequences are operative in
1987 and 1989, which will undoubtedly will impact on the US economy.The current expansion has
persisted since late 1982 and a five year growth phase has never been recorded in US history.
11
There was an economic upturn in the US following Sequence D (1821, 1877 and 1933). Hence a
recovery could be expected in the early 1990's after 1989. However, the US economy could a crisis
in late 1993 and a downturn in the mid 1990's. It may not be until the late 1990's before another
period of economic growth is achieved.
Major difficulties arise in using the 56 year sequences as a precise predictive tool. There are only
four 56 year cycles since 1760 and more needs to be understood on the mechanisms behind these
cycles in order to use them in economic forecasting.
Any major economic contraction obvioiusly causes hardship for many people. The prime purpose of
prediction is to delineate future problems and thereby enable positive action to be taken to avoid or
at least ameliorate the emerging difficulties. Potential strategies can be considered and any action
can be taken prior to the event. In this regard, responsible government policies are essential. More
refined economic management prevailing since World War II has prevented depressions, as
confirmed in 1949 and 1969 when the 56 year sequences were operative. Even so, this may be the
result of fortune rather than good planning and due to an undetermined long cycle. In the past 300
years, the only other extended peiod in which major financial crises were absent was between 1720
and 1763.
THE SUN AND THE MOON
Being conservative, economists would tend to scoff at the notion that the heavens have a relevance
to economic booms and busts. Even so, many quite readily study the impact of the 40 month
Kitchin Cycle, the 9 year Juglar Cycle and so on. This is despite the fact that such methodology is
based on the occult study of numerology, which together with astrology, involves the study of
cycles. Both potentially can offer much in economic foreasting if the keys can be established.
Various astrologers have conducted extensive studies on possible influences determining business
cycles. Usually these have involved planetary configurations and sunspots, but the findings have not
yielded consistent trends, although interesting correlations have been established (7). There are 8
known planets, at least one proposed trans Pluto planet (variously known as Bacchus or Proserpine)
and, taken to an extreme, 2000 asteroids and dozens of comets. Thus there is almost an infinite
number of planetary cycles. In the late 1950's, David Williams (1) believed that
Jupiter/Saturn/Uranus cycles “offered a clue” in explaining the crises in Sequences A, B and C.
However, these were dismissed as having no relevance to the 56 year and associated cycles.
Additional astrological factors were examined. Even though the mechanism remains undetermined,
there are strong indications to link them with Sun/Moon cycles.
Much of the electro-magnetic energy on Earth originates from the Sun. Radiation from this source
also provides energy on which virtually all life forms are sustained and variation in input causes the
four seasons. The Moon directly influences the weather (8), the tides and the sexual mating
activities of animals. A woman's menstruation is based on the 29 day lunar cycle. Furthermore, both
solar and lunar eclipses have a measurable impact upon the Earth's electro-magnetic field. A full
Moon, and especially a lunar eclipse, has beens shown to increase the surface tension of fluids and
our bodies take up and hold more fluids (9). During a full Moon phase, crime increases and people
are less mentally stable hence the term lunatic. Such factors make it plausible for solunar cycles to
alter mass psychology, thus causing financial crises.
12
THE SOLUNAR CYCLES
The 56 year cycles are critical in explaining the major US and European financial crises since 1760.
The only astrological constants in these cycles are the positions of the Sun and the Moon's nodes.
The latter are two points (north and south) 180 degrees apart in the zodiac where the orbit of the
Moon around the Earth intersects the plane of the Earth's orbit around the Sun (the ecliptic). It takes
18.61 years for the Moon's nodes to complete one cycle of the zodiac and three cycles gives 55.83
years – very close to a whole number 56. These points have a direct influence on Sun/Moon
alignments with solar eclipses always to be found within 18 degrees of the Moon's nodes and lunar
eclipses within 12 degrees. Such alignments are hypothesised to catalyse financial crises. Eclipses
were studied extensively by astrologer priests of ancient Babylon and Egypt to predict the destiny
of nations and man.
References on solunar cycles of 56 years appear to be virtually non existent in astrological
literature. The only factor established by the author was that every 56 years the Sun conjuncts the
lunar north node in almost the same zodiac position (3 degrees clockwise) and on the same date
(minus three or four days). 56 calendar years (20,454 days) is very nearly approximate to 59 eclipse
years (20,451 days). One eclipse year is the timeit takes for the Sun to complete one cycle north
node to north node and equals 346.62 days. Such conjunctions could possibly assist in explaining
the basis of the 56 year cycles.
Despite the prospect of being labelled another von Daeniken, the author found it curious that the
number 56 was important in the plan of Stonehenge, the famous monument built by the ancient
Britons. There are 56 Aubrey Holes in a circle surrounding the stone complex. Professor G H
Hawkins (10 and 11) suggested ways in which eclipses could be predicted by moving market stones
around the holes. Sir Frederick Hoyle (12) showed how the number 56 was a suitable choice for
following numerologically and directionally the positions of the Sun, the Moon and the Moon's
nodes. The Causway post holes at Stonehenge were believed by C A Newman (13) to record the
most northerly positions of those full Moon risings closest to mid winter. The post holes observe 6
Moon's nodal cycles equal to 111.66 years, approximately two 56 year cycles. Only those mid
winter full Moon risings were recorded which were further north than a line drawn from the centre
of the monument to a point where the mid summer Sun rose. As mentioned prevsiously, 56 calendar
years almost exactly equales 59 eclipse years. Interestingly, there is a circle of 30 Y holes and
another of 29 Z holes located between the Aubrey Holes and the stone structure giving a total of 59.
Despite such findings, there has been much debate on the purpose of Stonehenge. Some authorities
deride the view that it was used as an astronomical observatory to accurately delineate solunar
cycles (14).
It may be only be speculated if this stone structure was constructed to obtain solunar data to study
the weather or to formulate prophecy. Whatever its function, the monument was exceedingly
important to the ancient Celts, in view of the labour required in its construction.
Around 100 AD, Plutarch wrote on Egyptian religion and philosophy in his 'Isis and Osiris' and
mentioned the number 56.
*
“The 56 sided polygon is said to belong to Typhon, who represents everything destructive
and harmful in nature.”
*
“The Pythagoreans believe Typhon to be a demonic power for they say he was born on an
even measure the 56th.”
*
“There are some who give the name Typhon to the shadow of the Earth in which they
believe the Moon falls and so suffers eclipse.”
13
Unfortunately, the extent to which the ancients understood the number 56 in relation to solunar
cycles is unknown.
Another prime influence on financial crises is hypothesised to be the Saros cycle. The Saros Series
are numbered 1 to 19. with each number divided into north and south nodal eclipses giving a total
of 38 series. The interval between succeeding eclipses in the same series number is 18.0 . or one
Saros cycle. This gives the 9, 36 and 54 year sub-cycles numerologically. A complete series of these
cycles consist of 70 to 71 eclipses and last for about 1260 years.Table 6 gives the relationship
between the Saros Series number and the 36 year sub-cycles evident for Sequences A, B, C and D
with Sequence F fallilng midway in the cycles. Similar tables may be drawn for all sub-cycles based
on multiples of 9.
Table 6
THE SAROS SERIES NUMBERS & THE 36 YEAR SUB-CYCLES
Sq F
1765
(01)
1821
(03)
1877
(05)
1933
(07)
+36
+36
+36
+36
Sq C
1801
(01)
1857
(03)
1913
(05)
1969
(07)
+18
+18
+18
+18
Sq F
1819
(01)
1875
(03)
1931
(05)
1987
(07)
+18
+18
+18
Sq B
1837
(01)
1893
(03)
1949
(05)
+36
+36
+36
Sq A
1873
(01)
1929
(03)
1985
(05)
NB: The Saros Series Number presented in pararentheses.
On examination, the Metonic cycle does not appear to have an impact on business activity. The
basis of this cycle is that every 19 years from the precise date of an eclipse, another eclipse appears
at approximately the same degree of the zodiac and at around the same date. This solunar cycle is
less precise than the Saros Series and 23% of all eclipses have no Metonic return. There is no
consistent correlation between the zodiac degree of solunar eclipses and financial crises.
.
No solunar cycle was established which closely aligns with 13.0 years. More research is required. A
cycle of 43 or 69 years (on the diagonals of the 13/56 year cycle) may be more relevant.
THE MOON'S NODES: A KEY FACTOR
In 1934, an article by T O McGrath (16) presented the view that business activity was influenced by
the following:
*
the 11.2 year sunspot cycle.
*
the 18.61 Moon's nodal cycle.
*
40 month cycle.
*
56 year cycle.
The latter was attributed to three Moon's nodal cycles and was considered to be the principle
business cycle. Apparently, McGrath did not call his work astrology because it dealt with
heliocentric (ie: as viewed from the Sun) positions of the planets, which were seen as triggers
releasing solar operations and because in general the approach was purely statistical and concrete
(17). Unfortunately, a copy of McGrath's work could not be obtained.
Louise McWhirter (4) put forward a theory in 1938 on the 18.61 year Moon's nodal cycle and its
impact upon business trends.
14
*
The North Node in Aries or Libra gives economic expansion from normal to high.
*
In Leo, the high point in business volume is reached.
*
In Cancer and Gemini, business is above normal but declining.
*
In Taurus a transition point is reached.
*
In Aquarius, the low point in business activity is reached.
*
In Capricorn and Sagittarius, the business curve is being normal going to high.
The lows according to this method approximate to Sequence D (1765, 1821, 1877 and 1933),
Sequence C plus one year (1802, 1858, 1914 and 1970) and another sequence (1784, 1840, 1896
and 1952). The latter roughly corresponds to Kondatieff lows – 1788, 1843 and 1896, the exception
being 1952, The highs in this nodal theory only generally correspond to highs in US activity.
Downturns are recorded for a number of 'peak' years.
David Williams (18) concluded that the Moon's north node at 0 Aries or 0 Libra gave an advance
warning of an important stock market low. Similarly, the north node at 0 Cancer or 0 Capricorn is
indicative of a market high. According to Williams, this 9.3 year half nodal cycle correctly denoted
stock market (Dow Jones Industrials) highs and lows about 80% of the time for 41 examples
between 1792 and 1983. The Moon's north node will be at 0 Aries in December 1987.
Table 7 presents the position of the Sun/Moon's North Node conjunctions for major crisis years
listed by Kitchin and Kindlberger. Such conjunctions are a prime influence on solunar eclipse
cycles and form the basis of the eclipse year. It is apparent that for major financial crises the
conjuntions are nearly always found in two segments of about 80 degrees roughly opposite in the
zodiac (ropical).
*
03 Aries to 24 Gemini
An arc of 81 degrees
*
21 Virgo to 12 Sagittarius
An arc of 81 degrees,
Sq D
1765
17 Pisces
1821
14 Pisces
1877
11 Pisces
1933
8 Pisces
Table 7
MAJOR FINANCIAL CRISES AND
SUN/MOON'S NORTH NODE CONJUNCTIONS
Sq C
Sq B
+36
1781
+36
5 Taurus
+36
1801
+36
1837
+36
9 Aries
2 Taurus
+36
1857
+36
1893
+36
6 Aries
29 Aries
+36
1913
+36
1949
+36
3 Aries
26 Aries
+36
1969
0 Aries
Sq A
1817
17 Taurus
1873
14 Taurus
1929
11 Taurus
1985
18 Taurus
Other major crisis years not contained in Sequences A, B, C and D.
1763
24 Ari
1825
12 Sag
1900
02 Sag
1772
20 Lib
1828
17 Lib
1907
23 Can
1792
24 Vir
1838
13 Ari
1920
06 Sco
1797
23 Gem
1847
10 Lib
1921
18 Lib
1799
16 Tau
1848
21 Vir
1931
15 Ari
1810
06 Lib
1864
09 Sco
1937
06 Sag
1815
04 Can
1866
03 Lib
1974
10 Sag
1816
16 Gem
1881
09 Sag
1975
22 Sco
1819
21 Ari
1890
24 Gem
15
NB: Some of these crises extend into the following year
* 1772 Crisis England (June) and Amsterdaum (January 1773).
* 1792 Crisis England (February 1793).
* 1881 Crisis France (January 1882).
Kitchin and Kindlberger's major crises have been underlined in the table.
Sun/North Node Conjunctions rounded to the nearest whole number.
Of the 34 major crisis years in Table 7, only in 1815 (4 Cancer), 1907 (23 Cancer) and 1933 (8
Pisces) were the Sun/North Node cojunctions found outside these two segments. Furthermore, in 14
of these examples, the conjunctions are located in Aries or in the opposite sign Libra. This
concentration largely results from the importance of 9/56 year cycles in precipitating major crises.
No major financial upheavals are evident when Sun/North Node conjunctions were located in Leo
or Aquarius. In contrast, the 15 minor crisis years listed by Kitchin for the 19th century had these
conjunctions randomly distributed with notable emphasis on a particular zodiac segment or sign.
As may be expected from the location of the Sun/North Node conjunctions, solar eclipses for the
major crisis years to 1800 (prior data not available) occurred between:
*
15 Pisces and 29 Gemini - an arc of 104 degrees.
*
06 Virgo and 21 Sagittarius - an arc of 105 degrees.
In the same years, lunar eclipses happened between:
*
21 Pisces and 14 Gemini – an arc of 83 degrees.
*
29 Virgo and 22 Sagittarius – an arc of 83 degrees.
This data excludes 1815, 1907 and 1933.
The reason for this concentration of eclipses and Sun/North Node conjunctions in zodiac segments
for major crisis years remain unknown. In ancient astrology, people and nations most affected by a
particular solar eclipse were believed to be those directly under the shadow cast by the Moon upon
the Earth's surface. However, no pattern could be established linking pathways of the Moon's
shadow with the 56 year sequences or crises in particular countries. Another hypothesis was tested
which attempted to correlate geocentric (as viewed from Earth) stress aspects (0 degree, 90 degree
and 180 degree angles) made by Mars and Saturn to solar eclipse degrees with the timing of crises.
No conclusive results were achieved. These aspects were very important to the ancients in eclipse
determination and the timing of crises. A problem arises in interpretating eclipses as astrologers
vary markedly in their methods of assessment an firm guidelines are lacking. Further work could be
done relating solunar cycles to business indexes. To the author's knowledge, this has not been done,
apart from studies on the Moon's nodes. If high correlations were proved, the results need not be
published given the potential profits to be made. The calculations would be extreme difficult by
hand, but relatively simple with computers.
One possible key point is that 0 Aries and 0 Libra coincide where the ecliptic crosses the Earth's
equator. The equinoxes occur when the Sun is at these degrees. This may have a bearing on the
prevalence of Sun/north node conjunctions in Aries/Libra for the 9/56 year cycle.
For the 20/56 year and 36/56 year cycles between Sequences A, B and C in Table 7, the Sun/north
Node conjunctions are found in a narrow range of about 60 degrees (late Pisces to late Taurus).
16
*
20 year sub-cycles (on the diagonals of Table 7).
eg:
1873 (24 Taurus).
1893 (29 Aries)
1913 (09 Aries)
The Sun/North Node conjunctions change their relative position by about 26 degrees
clockwise every 20 years.
*
36 year sub-cycles
eg:
1857 (06 Aries)
1893 (29 Aries)
1929 (21 Taurus)
The Sun/North Node conjunctions change their relative position by about 20 degrees
anticlockwise every 36 years.
For these sub-cycles, major financial crises are rarely activated once the progressive Sun/North
Node conjunctions move out of the critical zone (early Aries to late Taurus). For example, adding
36 to the years in Sequence A gives 1797 Sun/North Node conjunction at 23 Gemini, 1853 (20
Gemini), 1909 (17 Gemini) and 1965 (14 Gemini) of which only 1797 is a major/minor crisis year.
Similarly, Sequence D in Table 7 has the Sun/Norh Node conjunctions located in mid Pisces and
1765, 1821 and 1877 are depressionary rather than crisis years. Even so, a US crisis occurred in
1933 and thus an exception to this trend.
Table 8 shows the position of the Sun/North Node conjunctions for the 9/56 year cycles, which are
found mid way in the 36 year sub-cycles, The 'critical zones' for the major financial crises in these
shorter sub-cycles are:
*
03 Aries to 02 Taurus
An arc of 29 degrees.
*
21 Virgo to 20 Libra
An arc of 29 degrees.
Sq
1792
24 Vir
1848
21 Vir
1904|
18 Vir
1960
15 Vir
Table 8
9/56 YEAR SUB-CYCLES & POSITION OF S/NN CONJUNCTIONS
Sq C
Sq
Sq F
Sq G
+9
1801
+9
1810
+9
1763
+9
1772
+9
09 Ari
06 Lib
24 Ari
20 Lib
+9
1857
+9
1866
+9
1819
+9
1828
+9
06 Ari
03 Lib
21 Ari
17 Lib
+9
1913
+9
1922
+9
(1875)
+9
(1884)
+9
03 Ari
00 Lib
18 Ari
14 Lib
+9
1969
+9
1978
+9
1931
+9
1940
+9
00 Ari
27 Vir
15 Ari
11 Lib
Sq B
1781
05 Tau
1837
02 Tau
1893
29 Lib
1949
26 Lib
Once the Sun/North Node conjunctions move outside these 'critical zones', major financial crises
within these shorter sub-cycles are not activated, The duration of these nine year sub-cycles is about
36 to 45 years.
Importantly, the 9 year sub-cycle is composed of two alternatiing 18 year sub-cycles, For example,
Saros Series numbers 10/11 are evident in the years 1781, 1810 and 1828 with Sun/North Node
conjunctions in late Virgo and Libra. In contrast, 1801, 1819 and 1837 belong to the Saros Series
number 01 and have Sun/North Node conjunctions in Aries.
17
The Sun/North Node conjunctions for the major crises in the 13 year sub-cycles are largely
confined to the two 81 degree zones noted in Table 7. However, two exceptions were recorded –
1907 (23 Cancer) and 1933 (9 Pisces).
Every 56 years, the Sun/North Node conjunctions repeat their relative position by 3 degrees
clockwise. This slow motion through the critical zones accounts for the persistence of the 56 year
sequences over long time spans and the fact that they may be regarded as cycles. As this study only
covers 220 years, it is not possible to determine if 'critical zones' move slowly through the zodiac or
if they remain fixed.
SOLUNAR CYCLES AND THE WEATHER
In agrarian economies, weather patterns are a principle cause of prosperity and depression. Solunar
cycles influence the weather and work by Robert Currie (19) showed that the Moon's nodeal cycles
of 18.61 years (in addition to an 11 year sunspot cycle) in the temperature records of North
America. This effect is especially pronounced east of the Rockie Mountains. Robert Currie (20)
also suggested that the recurring 20 year droughts of the Mid West, actually happened at an interval
of 18 years in response to the lunar influence. Weather records do fit a cycle of 18 to 19 years at
least as well as the double sunspot cycle of 21 to 20 years proposed by some sources. L M Libby
(20) speculated that the Sun and Moon cause tides in the atmosphere, which vary by as much as
10% over an 18.61 year period. These tides change the extent to which the atmosphere is pulled
away from the Earth and thereby alter the stratosphere. The chemical and physical changes of the
stratosphere determine the amount of solar energy that reaches the Earth. This alone could account
for the 18.6 year cycle in weather patterns. The 56 year cycle could also possibly prove influential,
if records were examined for such a trend.
CONCLUSIONS
The interpretation of business cycles had presented much difficulty, mainly because cycles of
financial crises:
*
do not necessarily continue ad infinitum. Many cycles discussed here have a beginning and
an end. However, some may be regarded as continuous as they last for such long periods.
*
do not necessarrily proceed in progressive waves. A more realistic view is series of crisis
events every 9, 56, etc years, followed by recesssion/depression.
As one sub-cycle fades, another commences and thus, at a given point in time,it is possible to have
two sub-cycles operating simultaneously. Furthermore, the US and Europe may best be regarded as
one unit with upheavals occurring in some countries and not others in a given crisis year. The
reasons for this disparity may only be speculated upon.
56 year cycles do exist in US and European econmic history. These cycles are exact with the crisis
month always happening within the crisis year (ie March of the sequence year through to the
following February) unless merging with minor crisis years is evident.
The precise astrological nature of the 56 year and associated cycles remains an enigma, despite
approaches to astronomers and astrologers. Even so, all indications link the 56 year sequences with
solunar cycles and in particular eclipses.
18
*
*
*
*
*
*
The only astrological constants are the position of the Sun and Moon's lunar nodes, both
eclipse determinants.
One cycle of the Moon's nodes through the zodiac equals 18.61 years. Three cycles give
55.83 years, very close to the whole number 56.
One Saros cycle of eclipses is equal to 18.03 years, which numerologically gives the 9, 36
and 54 year sub-cycles.
For the major US and European financial crisis years since 1760, the Sun/Moon's north node
are virtually always found in two segments of 81 degrees approximately opposite in the
zodiac.
The concept of 'critical zones' helps explain a possible mechanism behind the sub-cycles.
The Sun and Moon are the most important heavenly bodies with direct influences on the
Earth's life forces and electro-magnetic fields. Thus solunar cycles could conceivably
influence human psychology en masse and thus detemine business activity.
Solunar cycles go a long way in explaining the 56 year and associated cycles. Thus there remains a
working hypothesis. Much additional research needs to be done to established:
*
the basis of the 56 year cycles.
*
the solunar basis of the 13 year sub-cycles.
*
possible triggers which precipitate crises.
*
why some countries experience financial crisis in a particular year, while other avoid such
turmoils.
*
if the 56 year cycles are applicable to other phenomena, such as weather, earthquakes, etc.
References
1. Williams, David. Astro Economics. Llewellyn Publications. 1959.
2. Union Corporation Limited. Trade Cycles Chart. Originated by Joseph Kitchin. March, 1949.
3. Kindlberger, C P. Manias, Panics and Crashed: A History of Financial Crises. Basic Books. 1978.
4. McWhirter, Louise. Mcwhiter Theory of Stock Market Forecasting. Astro Book Company. 1938.
5. Kondratieff, N. D. Long Waves in Economic Life. Review of Economic Statistics. XVII.
November, 1935.
6. Michaels, J. W. et al. Echoes From A Siberian Prison Camp. November 9, 1981.
7. Dean, Geoffrey, Recent Advances in Natal Astology. 1978.
8. Gribbin, John. The Sun, The Moon and The Weather. New Scientist. June 18, 1981.
9. Jansky, R C. Interpreting The Eclipses. Astro Computing Services. 1977.
10. Hawkins, G S. Stonehenge Decoded. Souvenir Press. 1965.
11. Hawkins, G S. Beyond Stonehenge. Hutchinson. 1977.
12. Hoyle, Sir Frederick. On Stonehenge. Heineman. 1977.
19
13. Newham, C A. The Astronomical Significance of Stonehenge. John Blackburn. 1972.
14. Ruggles, Dr Clive. Prehistoric Astronomy: How far did On Go? New Scientist. 18 June 1981.
15, Dinely, M G. Review. New Scientist. 7 July 1981
16. McGrath, T O. Solar Radiation and Business Activity. Astrological Bulletin. April/May/June
1934.
17. Rudhyar, Dane. The Astrology of Personality. Lucis Publishing Company. 1936.
18. Williams, David. Financial Astrology. American Federation of Astrologers. 1982.
19. Currie, Robert. Journal of Geophysical Research. Vol 84. p 753.
20. Currie, Robert. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences.1981.
21. Libby, L M. Tree Thermometers and Commodities: Historic Climate Indicators. Enviromental
International. Vol 2, p 31. 1979.
20
APPENDIX
MAJOR FINANCIAL CRISES – KINDLEBERGER
1763
1772
1793
1797
1799
1810
1815-16
1819
Amsterdam. SP - Jan 1763. C - Sep 1763. End of Seven Years’ War.
England. C – Jun 1772. Amsterdam. SP - Jun 1772. C - Jan 1773.
England. SP - Nov 1792. C - Feb 1793. After canal mania.
England. SP - 1796. C - Feb-Jun 1797.
Hamburg. SP - 1799. C - Aug-Nov 1799.
England. SP - 1809. C - Jan 1811.
England. SP - 1815. C - 1816.
USA. SP - Aug 1818. C - Nov 1818-Jun 1819.
England. SP - Dec 1818. C - None.
1825
England. SP - Early 1825. C - Dec 1825.
1828
France. SP - MNG. C - Dec 1827.
1836
England. SP – Apr 1836. C - Dec 1836.
1837
USA. SP - Nov 1836. C - Sep (error - May correct ?).
1838
France. SP – Nov 1836. C - Dec 1838. Banque de Belgique failed.
1847
England. SP - Jan 1847. C - Oct. After railway mania.
1848
Continent. SP - Mar - Apr 1848. C - Mar 1848.
1857
USA. SP - Late 1856. C - Aug 1857.
England. SP - Late 1856. SP - Oct 1857.
Continent. SP - March 1857. C - Nov 1857.
1864
France. SP - 1863. C - Jan 1864.
1866
England/Italy. SP - Jul 1865. C - May 1866
1873
Germany/Austria. SP - Autumn 1872, C - May 1873.
USA. SP - March 1873. C - Sep 1873.
1882
France. SP - Dec 1881, C - Jan 1882. Union Generale failure.
1890
England. SP - Aug 1890. C – Nov 1890. Baring crisis.
1893
USA. SP - Dec 1892. C - May 1893. Australia SP - C – May.
1907
USA. SP - Early 1907. C - Oct 1907.
France/Italy. SP - Mar 1906. C - Aug 1907.
1920-21
USA/ UK. SP - Summer 1920. C - Spring 1921.
1929
1929 USA. SP - Sep. C - Oct 28. Black Monday.
1931-33
1931 Austria. C - May. Germany. C - Jun. UK. C - Sep. Japan. C – Dec.
1933 USA. C - March. Bank holiday.
1950s and Currency speculations: France 1958, Canada 1962, Italy 1963, Britain 1964,
1960s
France 1968, US$ 1973.
1974-75
Worldwide. SP - 1973. C - 1974.
MAJOR FINANCIAL CRISES – KITCHIN
(only includes those major crises not already covered by Kindlberger)
1796
England C – MNG.
1801
Peace Crisis. England and Europe C – MNG..
1900
German Crisis C – MNG.
1913
Europe and the USA. C – MNG.
1937
US recession.
Abbreviations used: SP- Speculative peak. C- Crisis/Panic. MNG- Month not given.
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