The Fed (USA)
From the Economic Projection by The Fed in September 2022, the fed revised
the projection and it looks they expect a slower growth rate than the past projection of
change in real GDP. That means they are lowering their expectation about the future
prospect of change in real GDP than before.The Unemployment rate projection also
revised and their new projection is expecting more Unemployment rate over years, that
means they are expecting more people will be unemploy over time.
The PCE inflation projection is revised, as we can see from the new projection
we can conclude they expects more higher inflation rate in the future but the projection
is the PCE inflation will slowing down over the years. The Core PCE inflation also
revised, they expects the core inflation will be higer in some year like in the 2023 the
median was 2.7 and then revised to 3.1. But their projection over years is the Core
inflation will decline over time.
The projection of Federal funds rate is revised, as we can see from the data
itself they expects a more aggressive on the projection of the interest rate.
Conclusions :
They expect more slower growth of change in real GDP, they expects the PCE inflation
and the Core PCE inflation will be higer than before. Also they projected the interest
rate will be higher as well because their projection of the future inflation, but they seems
optimistic that the inflation and also the interest rate will decline over time.
ECB (European Union)
The economic projection in March 2024 revised the past projection in December
2023, Real GDP projection revised on some year. The projection in 2024 was 0.8 then
revised to 0.6, in 2025 the projection remain unchanged at 1.5, and in 2026 was 1.5
then revised to 1.6.
The projection for the Unemployment rate in 2024 was 6.6% then revised to
6.7%, in 2025 was 6.5% then revised to 6.6%, and in 2026 was 6.4 them revised to
6.6%.
The inflation projection in March 2024 also revised the past projection in
December 2023. The projection in 2024 was 2.7% then revised to 2.3%, in 2025 was
2.1% then revised to 2.0%, and the projection for 2026 remain unchange at 1.9%.
Conclusion.
The ECB revised their new economic projection, they expects the economy will have a
more slow GDP growth rate than their past projection. In the projection for
Unemployment rate revised up, they expects the unemployment rate in the future will be
much higher than their past projection. They seems optimistic about the future Inflation
Rate projection, as we can see they revised the projection down.
BoE (UK)
The Economic projection in February 2024 revised the past projection in
November 2023. The projection for four-quarter GDP growth in 2024 was 0.2% then
revised to 0.0, in 2025 the projection was 0.0 then revised to 0.5, in 2026 was 0.6 then
revised to 0.8, and they added the new projection for the year of 2027 in 1.5.
The projection for Modal CPI inflation rate in 2024 was 4.4% then revised to
3.6%, in 2025 was projected 2.5% then revised to 2.8%. The projection in 2026 was
1.9% then revised to 2.3%, and they also added the new projection for the year of 2027
at 1.9%.
The projection for Mean CPI inflation rate in 2024 was 4.4% then revised to
3.7%, in 2025 was projected at 2.8% then revised to 3.0%. The projection in 2026 was
2.2% then revised to 2.3%, and they added the new projection for the year of 2027 at
1.9%.
The Unemployment rate projection in 2024 remain unchanged at 4.4%, in 2025
the projection was 4.8% then revised to 4.7%. The projection in 2026 was 5.0% then
revised to 4.9%, and they added the new projection for 2027 at 4.9%.
The projection for Bank Rate (interest rate) in 2024 was 5.3% then revised to
5.1%, in 2025 was 5.0% then revised to 3.9%. The projection in 2026 was 4.4% then
revised to 3.3%, and they add the new projection for 2027 at 3.2%.
Conclusion.
The Bank of England projected that the economy will be stagnant in 2024 based on
their latest projection for change in real GDP, but they expects the GDP will grow
gradually over the years. The latest Inflation projection are very optimistic about the
inflation will slowing down gradually overtime, the latest labour market (Unemployment
Rate) projection seems like they expects the unemployment will be tight. Even the new
projection revised the projection lower than the past projection in November 2023. The
Bank Rate (interest rate) projection was revised and they seems like more a dovish
stance on the future prospect of the interest rate, the new projection is lower than the
past projection in November 2023.
BoC (Canada)
The projection for change in real GDP growth in 2022 was 2.6% then revised down to
2.1%, in 2023 the projection was 1.8% then revised down to 1.0%. And the projection
for 2024 was 2.7% then revised to 2.3%. The projection for CPI inflation in 2020 was
7.5% then revised down to 7.1%, in 2023 the projection was 3.2% then revised to 2.8%.
And the projection in 2024 remain unchanged at 2.0%.
I can conclude that the new economic projection by Bank of Canada is in their
perspective, they expects slower growth rate in real GDP and they seems optimistic
about the future inflation rate.
BoJ (Japan)
The Japan’s economy is expected to continue growing at a pace above its
potential growth rate as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually increasing
in the overall economy. Employment is likely to continue rising, but the pace is
projected to moderate gradually. Wage growth is expected to increase as a trend, partly
reflecting price rises, and employees income expected to continue increasing.
The projection for CPI inflation rate year-on-year is likely to be above 2%
through the year of 2024 due to factors such as the effects by the past rise in import
prices. The projection for the year of 2025 is the inflation rate pace projected to
decelerate.Toward the end of the projection, CPI inflation is likely to increase gradually
toward achieving the price stability target as medium to long term inflation expectations
and wage growth rise. The projected year-on-year rate of increase in CPI inflation for
2024 is lower, due to the effects of the recent decline in crude oil prices.
The projection for real GDP growth rate year-on-year is revised. The projection in
2023 was 1.8% - 2.0% with the median 2.0% then revised to 1.6% - 1.9% with median
1.8%, in 2024 was projected 0.9% - 1.4% with median 1% then revised to 1.0% - 1.2%
with median 1.2%. The projection for the year of 2025 was 0.8% - 1.2% with median
1.0% then revised to 1.0% - 1.2% and the median remain at 1.0%. So, their latest
projection for 2024 is a little bit pessimistic because they adjusted the projection range
from 0.9% - 1.4% to 1.0% - 1.2%.
SNB (Switzerland)
Economic growth in Switzerland was moderate in the third quarter of 2023, and activity
is projected to remain subdued going forward. The SNB expects GDP growth of around
1% in 2023, and projected an expansion of between 0.5% and 1% in 2024.The
Unemployment rate is expected to continue rise slightly, The projection for Inflation rate
is based on survey of consumer sentiment conducted by SECO. The survey conducted
in September indicated that just under four-fifths of households anticipated an increase
in inflation for short terms, according to the survey conducted by UBS and CFA Society
Switzerland in November fewers respondents expecting inflation to rise than the
respondents that expecting inflation to decline.
The forecast of the banks and economic institutions participating in the monthly survey
conducted by Consensus Economics for expected inflation in 2023 remain unchange at
2.2% in December, the projection for 2024 expected the year-on-year reduction in
inflation to 1.6%. According to the Consensus Economics survey conducted in October,
the long term inflation is projected at 1.2%.
RBA (Australia)
The latest Economic projection by RBA revised the past economic projection, GDP
growth in December 2023 and June 2024 was projected at 1.6% and 1.8% then
revised down to 1.5% and 1.3%. The projection in December 2024 and June 2025 was
2.0% and 2.2% then revised down to 1.8% and 2.1%, in December 2025 was project at
2.4% then revised down to 2.3%. They also added the new projection for June 2026 at
2.4%.
The projection for Unemployment rate revised up the past projection, in June
2024 was projected at 4.0% then revised up at 4.2%. In December 2024 and June 2025
was projected at 4.2% and 4.3% then revised up to 4.3% and 4.4%, the projection in
December 2025 was 4.3 then revised up to 4.4%. They added the new projection in
June 2026 at 4.4%.
The CPI Inflation also revised down the past projection, in 2023 and June 2024
was projected at 4.5% and 3.9% then revised down to 4.1% and 3.3%. In December
2024 and June 2025 was projected at 3.5% and 3.3% then revised down to 3.2% and
3.1%. The projection in December 2025 was 2.9% then revised down to 2.8%, and they
added the projection in June 2026 at 2.6%.
Based on their latest projection, i can conclude that they are expects the future inflation
rate will decline at a faster pace. The unemployment rate revised up the past projection,
that means they are expecting future unemployment rate is likely to be higer. They also
revised down their projection for GDP growth, that means they expects the economy will
grow at a more slower rate than past projection.
RBNZ (New Zealand)
The OCR (interest rate) is likely to increase further than previously expected in order to
return the inflation rate to 2%, the Employment rate is at a historically high level and
expected to decline and the new projection in may 2022 was revised down the past
projection. The long term inflation rate expectations have risen, and the headline
inflation is projected to be higher and more presistent.
The conclusion is the RBNZ is expecting more higher inflation in the future and they
stated that the interest rate need to be rising in order to fight inflation back to 2% target
range, and they also projected the unemployment rate likely to increase due to their
statement that the employment rate likely to decline.