ACI DEALING CERTIFICATE WEBINAR TRAINING Exam Code 002-101 Jointly facilitated by Andre Kurten & Craig Rod 2022 © Andre Kurten 2022 Examination Procedure The examination lasts 2 hours and consists of 70 multiple-choice questions. The overall pass level is 60% (42 correct answers), assuming that the minimum score criteria for each topic basket is met. There is a minimum score criteria of 50% for each topic basket. One mark is given for each correctly answered question. No negative marking and questions are asked in sequentially. Unlike the old syllabus, no distinction between theory and calculation in each topic. Overall mark is considered. Calculators: Some questions will require the use of a calculator. A basic one will be provided on the computer screen. You may also use your own handheld calculator, provided it is neither text programmable nor capable of displaying graphics with a size more than 2 lines. Pass 60% - 69.99%, Merit 70% - 79.99%, Distinction 80% and above NOTE: The exam questions assume that you are a dealer working in London. The exam topic basket structure •Section 1 – Financial market Environment - 10 questions all theory •Section 2 – Foreign Exchange - 18 questions -12 theory and 6 calculation •Section 3 - Rates 18 questions -12 theory and 6 calculation •Section 4 – FICC Derivatives - 14 questions -8 theory and 6 calculation •Section 5 - Financial markets Applications - 10 questions all theory © Andre Kurten 2022 Topic Basket 1 Financial Markets Environment Covered in Tutorial 1 © Andre Kurten 2022 Section Objectives Overall Objectives: The overall objective of this topic is for candidates to understand the functions performed by financial markets in the economy and to explain its different segments, their scope and instruments. Candidates will be able to understand the basic concepts of efficient markets and the impact of regulation and codes in financial markets. Referring to the life cycle of a typical financial market transaction, candidates will be able to explain its main phases. o 10 questions – 5 minimum correct answers © Andre Kurten 2022 The Role of Financial Markets Here are four important functions of financial markets: 1. Put's savings into more productive use - financial markets like banks open it up to individuals and companies that need a home loan, student loan, or business loan. 2. Determines the price of securities - prices of securities are determined by financial markets which consider many economic factors as well as the efficiency of the market. 3. Makes financial assets liquid - Buyers and sellers can decide to trade their securities anytime. 4. Lowers the cost of transactions - In financial markets, various types of information regarding securities can be acquired without the need to spend. The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) The efficient market hypothesis also known as the efficient market theory, holds that market prices reflect all information. The four major economic agents in the market are: Government, financial institutions, corporations, and households. © Andre Kurten 2022 The Financial Markets . Where do financial markets exist? Location - the market is anywhere that people either meet on a physical trading floor such as the London Metal Exchange, or a virtual trading platform provided by vendors’ such as Bloomberg or Reuters (Refinitiv) or global stock exchanges The primary market – where instruments are issued for the first time. The secondary market – where instruments already in issue are traded. How do participants find each other in the market? Intermediation – through a recognized and regulated financial intermediary like a bank or pension fund or mutual fund. Equity markets and the market for CDs are good examples of intermediation. Disintermediation – where borrower and lender deal directly with each other. Commercial paper market is a good example of disintermediation Regulated markets – A regulated market usually operates under a license issued by the relevant government body. Stock exchanges, Commodity exchanges and Futures exchanges are good examples of regulated markets. Trading on a regulated market is done subject to the rules of that market or exchange. Unregulated markets - An unregulated market is a market over which very little if any government legislation, other than common law, exert a level of oversight and control to protect investors. Money and foreign exchange are good examples of unregulated markets. An unregulated market usually operates under the premise of ‘my word is my bond’, so trades should be done under the covering of a legal contract between the parties subject to a master agreement like ISDA. © Andre Kurten 2022 The Financial System GOVERNMENT INTERMEDIATION FUNDS FIRMS FUNDS FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES INSTRUMENTS HOUSEHOLDS INSTRUMENTS FIRMS FUNDS HOUSEHOLDS SURPLUS UNITS INSTRUMENTS DISINTERMEDIATION GOVERNMENT DEFICIT UNITS © Andre Kurten 2022 Typical Bank Treasury Structure Dealing Room Back office Middle office The dealing room is the engine room for creating deals. Market risk therefore originates in the dealing room. This risk is controlled in the dealing room by the imposition of limits. The middle office is the area where risk emanating from the dealing room is measured and reported. Improper measurement or control can result in unexpected losses. The back office is where deals are processed and settled. This is where operational risk can be created through inefficient operations and processing © Andre Kurten 2022 Dealing Room Functions Customer dealing • Forex, Money, Bond, and Derivatives Markets Proprietary dealing • using allocated risk capital to generate revenue from speculation Managing the liquidity of the bank • vital function of the treasury Executing Asset and Liability Management (ALM) instructions © Andre Kurten 2022 Dealers They are responsible for making prices, market making and facilitating the deal flow in the financial markets. Market making involves showing two-way prices i.e., bids and offers. In doing so they enjoy the following: •Earn the spread between bid and offer •Good relationships with clients and other banks •Getting a good flow of information They execute deals in the market through: • Reuters dealing and other trading platforms •Telephonically, or •via the internet where the correct protocol exists for internet dealing. They input the deals so that the processing of deals can begin but do not get to do confirmation or payment processing © Andre Kurten 2022 Inter dealer Brokers- IDBs An example of an IDB is ICAP PLC They act as AGENT and facilitate deals between dealers in the banks and charge a commission for this service Details of commission structure are contained in a signed brokerage agreement. IDBs DO NOT take positions but deal strictly back-to-back on client instructions. IDBs take the prices they have been quoted by the banks and quote the highest bid and lowest offer back to the market anonymously Their vital role is providing liquidity, price discovery, and Information, to the market . Typical questions: 1. Clients of a voice broker quote EUR/USD at 1.1875/80, 1.1878/83, 1.1879/84, and 1.1877/82. What will be the brokers price? 2. Clients of a voice broker quote EUR/GBP at 0.6344/49, 0.6346/51, 0.6348/53, and 0.6349/53. What will be the brokers price? © Andre Kurten 2022 Core Functions in Treasury Ops BACK OFFICE •Input and completion of deals •Verification by confirmation •Settlement •Reconciliation MIDDLE OFFICE •Risk Management •Accounting •Documentation •Financial Statements •Analysis and Budgets •Systems and telecommunications The order in which a deal takes place is: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Trade capture (deal entry) or registration – usually done by the dealer Confirmation – must be done by the back office Netting (if possible) Payment (settlement) Reconciliation - separate from the individuals responsible for payments © Andre Kurten 2022 Treasury Operations Today's Reality • Front and back office must be independent but interdependent • The Treasury Operations division within a financial institution has grown into a key admin area due to two main reasons: oLarge daily market turnover oMulti centre operations Payment Netting •This has reduced high value payments and reduced credit and settlement risk although errors can still be very costly Straight through processing (STP) •means no manual intervention post-trade Segregation of duties •clearly defined roles and responsibilities for front, middle and back office Regulation and compliance Risk management and separation of reporting lines © Andre Kurten 2022 Global Market Codes and Regulation The regulation and codes in financial markets are dealt with in Tutorial 1 of the study guide. Please ensure that you familiarise yourself with content in this section. Market Codes They are not legally binding, but promote open, fair, and effective markets. 1. UK Money Market code 2. The FX global Code 3. The Global Precious Metals Code Regulations Market participants and firms in breach of these regulations can be legally sued and may be subject to fines and jail time if found guilty. 1. Market in Financial Instruments Directive II - MiFID II 2. Market Abuse Regulation – MAR 3. Benchmark Regulation – BMR 4. Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act 5. European Market Infrastructure Regulation - EMIR Although there is a brief overview of the Basel Accords I, II, and III, in this section, they are dealt with in more detail in the Financial Market Application tutorial 5 in the study guide © Andre Kurten 2022 Topic Basket 2 Foreign Exchange Covered in Tutorial 2 © Andre Kurten 2022 Section Objectives Overall Objectives: The overall objective of this topic is for candidates to understand and to be able to explain basic foreign exchange rate quotations, their terminology, mechanics and the principal risks associated with FX spot and forward instruments. At the end of this section, candidates will be able to define the relationship between forward rates and interest rates, explain the use of FX outright forwards for foreign currency risk management and the use of FX swaps in rolling spot positions, hedging FX outright forwards, and in creating synthetic foreign currency assets and liabilities. Candidates will be required to perform basic calculations for FX market instruments. The candidates will be able to describe NDFs and, explain their rationale. Candidates will be able to understand and identify quotations for precious metals, and demonstrate a basic understanding of the structure and operation of precious metals’ financial market • 18 questions comprising 12 theory and 6 calculation questions – 9 minimum correct answers © Andre Kurten 2022 Forex Jargon Spot date - two good business days (in both currencies) after deal date Value date - the date when delivery takes place on a deal Bid- the rate at which the price maker is willing to buy the BASE Currency Offer - the rate at which the price maker is willing to sell the BASE Currency Spot quotes- either to 4 decimals or in the case of JPY to 2 decimals Spread – difference in points between the bid and offer price Direct quote - 1 unit of USD in relation to quoted currency Indirect quote - 1 unit of currency other than the USD in relation to USD Bid/offer - A spot quote is always low/high. For example, 1.2535/40 indicates a bid at 1.2535 and offer at 1.2540. An example where a quote appears as follows; 1.2595/05 it indicates a bid at 1.2595 and an offer of 1.2605. We describe this quote as one where the bid/offer crosses a big figure. NOTE: The currencies quoted indirectly against the USD are the EUR,GBP, AUD, NZD; All others are quoted directly. ”My risk” – price taker acknowledging to the price maker that he knows that the quote may change due to the delay in his response to the quote received “Your risk” - price maker cautioning the price taker that due to the delay in his responding to the price quoted, the quoted price may change. © Andre Kurten 2022 Forex Jargon Currency dominance - The EUR is the dominant base currency in the market. In any currency pair that includes the EUR, the EUR will be the base. This is followed by the GBP, AUD, NZD, and then the USD. This can be remember using the the acronym EGANU. Reciprocal quote – This is done by inverting a conventional quote. For example, given EUR/GBP calculate GBP/EUR. To do this, divide the given exchange rate into 1. NOTE: When calculating a reciprocal given a bid and offer, then the offer will become the bid and the bid the offer. For example, EUR/GBP is 0.8530/0.8540 so GBP/EUR 1.1710/1.1723 Forward exchange rate - the rate agreed today for the exchange of one currency for another at some date in the future other than spot Outright – a forward contract for a future value date Swap - a purchase for one value date with a simultaneous sale for a different value date (Sale With A Purchase) Overnight O/N - rolling out a position from today into tomorrow tom/next T/N - rolling out a position from tomorrow into the spot date Spot Next S/N - rolling out of spot into the next day © Andre Kurten 2022 Dealing in Spot FX Markets Consider how you would deal in your own currency against the USD or other major currencies Always look at what you are doing in the base currency. You buy the base at the offer side from the market. You sell the base at the bid side to the market. If you have a QUOTED currency amount, you will DIVIDE by the exchange rate to get the BASE currency amount If you have a BASE currency amount, you will MULTIPLY by the exchange rate to get the QUOTED currency amount NOTE: As a market user receiving several quotes: •You buy the base currency at the LOWEST offer •You sell the base currency at the HIGHEST bid © Andre Kurten 2022 Market-making and Pips Market-making is where a dealer is willing to quote other market participants and brokers bids and offers in a currency pair. The benefits are: Bid/offer spread Flow information Relationships One pip represents 0.0001 and one big figure represents 0.0100 In 1 million of the BASE currency 1 pip is equal to 100 of the quoted currency. For example, in the GBP/USD GBP 1,000,000 x 0.0001 = USD 100 In 1 million of the BASE currency 1 big figure is equal to 10,000 of the quoted currency. For example, in the EUR/GBP EUR 1,000,000 x 0.0100 = GBP 10,000 © Andre Kurten 2022 Spot FX Questions 1. Spot cable is quoted at 1.6048-53 in the brokers, and you quote a customer 1.6050-55 in USD 3 million, If they sell USD to you, how much GBP will you be short of? A. 4,816,500.00 B. 1,868,809.57 C. 1.868,576.77 D. 4,815,900.00 2. Spot EUR/GBP is quoted at 0.8890 in 1,000,000 of the base currency, how much is one big figure of worth? A. EUR 10,000 B. EUR 100 C. GBP 8,890 D. GBP 10,000 3. When quoting the exchange rate between the AUD and the EUR, which currency should be quoted as the base currency? A. EUR B. AUD C. It depends whether you are in Europe or Australia D. It really does not matter 4. What does the exchange rate USD/NOK 6.1050 indicate? A. There are 6.1050 USD per 1 NOK B. There are 6.1050 NOK to 1 USD C. The inflation differential between the US and Norway D. None of the above © Andre Kurten 2022 Cross rates An exchange rate which is derived from two other quoted exchange rates is called a cross rate. •The stronger currency usually becomes the base currency in a cross quote Deriving a cross rates by using two dollar based or direct quote mid rates. Given the following what is the CHF/HKD exchange rate: USD/HKD is 7.2500 that is 1USD = HKD 7.2500 USD/CHF is 1.5000 that is 1USD = CHF 1.5000 We can deduce mathematically therefore that CHF 1.5000 = HKD 7.2500 To find out how many HKD = 1CHF we need to divide both sides by 1.5000 (to arrive at 1CHF on the left-hand side). 1.5000/1.5000 = 7.2500/1.5000 1CHF = HKD4.8333 or CHF/HKD= 4.8333 There are some simple rules which help when you are asked to calculate a cross rate using bid/offer © Andre Kurten 2022 Rules for cross rates TWO DIRECT QUOTES (USD BASED QUOTES) “Cross and divide” (divide high number by low number). For example, to determine the CHF/HKD given USD/HKD= 7.2515/7.2525 USD/CHF =1.1030/1.1035 BID = 7.2515/1.1035 = 6.5714 OFFER = 7.2525/1.1030 = 6.5752 CHF/HKD = 6.5714/ 6.5752 (spread is 38 points) NOTE: When you are calculating a cross rate given two direct quotes, the weaker currency is divided by the stronger currency and the stronger currency becomes the base. © Andre Kurten 2022 Rules for cross rates TWO INDIRECT QUOTES (NON-USD BASED QUOTES) As with two direct quotes you “Cross and divide” however, irrespective of strength, here you divide the currency that will become the BASE by the currency that will become the QUOTED following EGANU. Given EUR/USD and GBP/USD, the dominant base currency is the EUR. So, the cross rate will be EUR/GBP. So, you cross and divide the EUR/USD with the GBP/USD EUR/USD= 1.2510/1.2520 GBP/USD = 1.4030/1.4040 BID = 1.2510/1.4040 = 0.8910 OFFER = 1.2520/1.4030 = 0.8924 EUR/GBP = 0.8910/0.8924 © Andre Kurten 2022 Rules for cross rates A DIRECT AND INDIRECT QUOTE (different base currency) “Straight down and Multiply” multiply the bid with the bid and the offer with the offer. Once again ensure that you follow EGANU to determine the base. Because AUD is the dominate base currency, the cross rate will be AUD/CHF. For example, to determine the AUD/CHF given USD/CHF= 1.0520/1.0525 AUD/USD = 0.7530/0.7540 BID = 1.0520x0.7530 = 0.7922 OFFER = 1.0525x0.7540 = 0.7936 AUD/CHF = 0.7922/0.7936 © Andre Kurten 2022 Cross Rate and Reciprocal Questions 1. You quote a client AUD/USD 0.9080/0.9085. What would you quote them if they wanted the quote as USD/AUD? A. 1.1013/1.1007 B. 1.1007/1.1013 C. 0.9085/0.9080 D. 0.9100/0.9110 2. What is the correct price for SGD/SEK given that: USD/SGD 1.2760/1.2770 USD/SEK 6.4800/6.5200 A. 5.0784/5.1057 B. 8.2685/8.3260 C. 0.1957/0.1971 D. 5.0744/5.1097 3. Spot EUR/USD is quoted at 1.0055-60 and spot GBP/USD at 1.5575-80. What is the EUR/GBP cross-rate? A. 0.6456-57 B. 0.6454-59 C. 1.5482-95 D. 1.5661-73 4. What are the ISO codes for the currencies of India, Argentina and South Africa? A. IDR, ARP, SAR B. INR, ARP, ZAR C. IDR, ARG, ZAR D. INR, ARS, ZAR © Andre Kurten 2022 Forward foreign exchange Forward foreign exchange is used to hedge against adverse currency movements Forward points (swap points) are determined by the deposit rates of the TWO currencies applied to the current spot rate. Where the actual forward points traded in the market deviate too far away from the forward points implied by the interest rates of the two currencies, then arbitrage is possible. This form of arbitrage is referred to as covered interest rate arbitrage. Covered interest rate arbitrage involves borrowing (or lending) one currency and using an FX swap transaction to create the other currency at a more favourable interest rate than is currently available in the money market. © Andre Kurten 2022 Foreign Exchange and Money market There is a very close relationship between the foreign exchange and the money market. They share the same calendar roll mechanism for maturities. For example, the maturity for a 1-month money market deposit or FX Swap out of spot date of 4th May will be 4th June. The sale of one currency automatically generates an equivalent amount in the counter currency. For example, if you are short of USD, you can sell GBP to raise USD in the FX spot market. Interest rate parity theorem states that there is no advantage of going from a low interest rate currency into a high interest rate currency if you hedge the exchange rate risk. The reason being that the forward points are equal to the difference between the interest rates of the two currencies for the period of an investment. © Andre Kurten 2022 Calculating a FX forward rate - 1 Positive Points Assume that the exchange rate (SPOT) between USD and CHF is 1.2500 (USD 1 = CHF 1.2500). Let us also assume that the interest rate for one year in USD is 3%, and the interest rate for CHF for one year is 5% (assuming 360/360 for both currencies) •Using the information given: USD 1 CHF 1.2500 oThe USD/CHF one year forward rate is: 1.3125 ÷1.03 = 1.2743 3% 5% 1 YR oThe forward points are: 1.2743 - 1.25 = 0.0243 USD1.03 CHF 1.3125 OR 243 Points © Andre Kurten 2022 Calculating a FX forward rate - 2 Negative Points Let’s assume that the exchange rate (SPOT) between USD and CHF is 1.2500 (USD 1 = CHF 1.25). Let us assume that the interest rate for one year in USD is 5%, and the interest rate for CHF for one year is 1%. (assuming 360/360 for both currencies) USD 1 CHF 1.2500 1 YR 5% 1% USD1.05 CHF 1.2625 •Using the information given: oThe USD/CHF one year forward rate is: 1.2625 ÷1.05 = 1.2024 oThe forward points are: 1.2024 - 1.2500 = - 0.0476 OR negative 476 Points © Andre Kurten 2022 Forward FX formula The formula provided by the ACI calculates the forward outright rate. TCIR x days 1 TCDB Forward Points Spot x BCIR x days 1 BCDB Where: TCIR = terms currency interest rate BCIR = base currency interest rate TCDB = terms currency day base DCDB = base currency day base - Spot Using the information from the previous example of positive points. Here we use ACT/360 for one year so 365/360 for both currencies 0.05 x 365 1 360 Forward Points 1.2500 x - 1.2500 0.03 x 365 1 360 1.050694 1.25 x - 1.2500 1.030417 1.2746 - 1.2500 0.0246 or 246 points © Andre Kurten 2022 Discount and Premium The points will be POSITIVE where the base currency interest rates are lower than the quoted currency interest rates. The the base currency is described as a premium and the quoted currency as a discount in the forward market. Positive points are quoted “Low/High”. Positive points benefit the seller of the base currency on the forward dates and points would be described as “in your favour”. The points will be NEGATIVE where the quoted currency interest rates are lower than the base currency interest rates. The base currency is described as a discount and the quoted currency as a premium in the forward market. Negative points are quoted “High/Low”. Negative points benefit the buyer of the base currency on the forward dates and points would be described as “in your favour”. NOTE: It is possible for swap points to be positive, par and negative in a currency pair under certain yield curve conditions. © Andre Kurten 2022 How do we know if points are Negative or positive? Points Negative Quoted currency Interest rates Are higher than Quoted currency interest rates The gap represents the points i.e. the interest rate differential Are higher than The gap represents the points i.e. the interest rate differential Base currency Interest rates Points Positive Base currency Interest rates The currency with the higher interest rate in the quoted pair is at a forward discount to the other currency irrespective of whether it is the base currency or not. It is cheaper to buy the discount currency in the forward market. © Andre Kurten 2022 Change in forward points The forward points (swap points) will change because of two factors: A change in the spot – but the move in the spot must be significant. A change in the interest rates of the two currencies – This will have a much more significant effect on the forward points. Some examples 1. In the EUR/USD, if USD interest rates are higher than EUR interest rates, how would you describe the swap points and which currency is at a premium? Then, if EUR rates fall, what will happen to the swap points? 2. In the USD/JPY, if USD interest rates are higher than JPY interest rates, how would you describe the swap points and which currency is at a premium? Then, if USD rates fall, what will happen to the swap points? © Andre Kurten 2022 Forward FX quotation Currency quotes in the spot market are generally 4 decimal places. For Example, EUR/USD 1.1500/10. The exception is where a quote involves the JPY. For example, CHF/JPY 109.85/90. Where The reciprocal is quoted as JPY/CHF it can be to 6 decimal places. So, the example given as a reciprocal would be JPY/CHF 0.009099/0.009103. Forward points (swap points) are quoted as whole numbers. However, when adjusting the spot with the forward points you must convert the points to a decimal before adding (or subtracting) the points to or from the spot. In a 4 decimal place currency you divide the points by 10,000. For a 2 decimal place currency you divide the points by 100. Where points are to 6 decimal places (JPY/CHF) then divide by 1,000,000. Unlike the spot market, forward points can be quoted to 6 decimal places. Some examples 1. Spot USD/CHF 0.9875/80. 1-month points 10/9. (negative points) 1mth outright 0.9865/71 (0.0010 and 0.0009 subtracted from bid/offer respectively) 2. Spot EUR/JPY 120.20/25 1-month points 7.50/6.75. (negative points) 1mth outright 120.125/120.1825 ( 0.075 and 0.0675 subtracted from bid/offer respectively) 3. Spot USD/SGD 1.1895/05. 1-month points 25/30. (positive points) 1mth outright 1.1920/1.1935 (0.0025 and 0.0030 added to bid/offer respectively) © Andre Kurten 2022 Deriving swap points from O/R and spot Calculating forward (swap) points given the spot and outright: Bid Offer 3 month Outright = 179.07 179.42 minus Spot GBP/JPY = 181.31 181.62 Forward points = -2.24 -2.2 Market quotation 224 220 To go from the decimal to the quoted points multiply by 100 for JPY. Remember for 4-decimal place currencies, you multiply by 10,000. The points are NEGATIVE (bid higher than offer). GBP interest rates are therefore higher than JPY interest rates. JPY Premium and GBP discount. © Andre Kurten 2022 Cross forward FX - An Example USD/NOK spot is 7.8350/60 USD/NOK 3 mth Fwd pts 340/380 GBP/USD spot is 1.5400/05 GBP/USD 3 mth Fwd pts 70/65 Step1- calculate 3 mth fwd for each currency pair 3 month USD/NOK outright 7.8350 7.8360 +0.0340 +0.0380 7.8690 7.8740 3 month GBP/USD outright 1.5400 1.5405 -0.0070 -0.0065 1.5330 1.5340 Step 2 – calculate the cross GBP/NOK 3 mth outright (Direct and indirect quote use straight down and multiply rule stronger currency is the base) USD/NOK 7.8690 7.8740 GBP/USD 1.5330 1.5340 GBP/NOK 12.0632 3mth outright 12.0787 © Andre Kurten 2022 Forward FX questions - 1 1. Overnight GBP/SGD is trading at Par. Overnight rates in the UK are trading at 3%. What is the most likely rate for overnight rates in Singapore? A. 2.96% B. 3% C. 3.04% D. Too little information to determine 2. A 6-month SEK/NOK swap is quoted 140/150. Spot is 0.9445. Which of the following statement is correct? A. SEK interest rates are higher than NOK interest rates B. NOK interest rates are higher than SEK interest rates C. NOK interest rates are higher than USD interest rates D. SEK interest rates and NOK interest rates are converging 3. The interest Rate Parity Theorem should work because, when one sells a low interest rate currency to invest in high interest rate currency and hedges the currency risk A. The cost of hedging is given by the forward points, which are equal to the interest rate differential between the two currencies B. The high interest rate currency will depreciate C. The profit from the appreciation of the high interest rate currency has been hedged away D. Interest rates are mean reverting, which means the low interest rate will tend to rise and the high interest rate will tend to fall © Andre Kurten 2022 Forward FX questions - 2 4. Using the following rates: Spot GBP/CHF 1.4235-55 Spot CHF/SEK 6.8815/45 3M GBP/SEK swap 140/150 What is the price for 3-month outright GBP/SEK? A. 9.8141-9.8246 B. 9.8108-9.8279 C. 9.8098-9.8289 D. 9.8151-9.8236 5. If spot GBP/CHF is quoted 1.4275-80 and the 3-month forward outright is 1.4254-61, what are the forward points? A. 19/21 B. 2.1/1.9 C. 21/19 D. 0.21/0.19 6. Using the following rates, calculate the 6-month EUR/USD outright forward rate. Spot EUR/USD 1.1155, 6-month (182-day) EUR deposits are 3.25%, and 6-month (182-day) USD deposits are 2.05% A. 1.1087 B. 1.1088 C. 1.1222 D. 1.1223 © Andre Kurten 2022 Outright Forward Exchange This is a transaction with one leg for a forward date other than spot and the deals are done between banks and client. •These transactions are usually referred to as Forward Exchange Contracts – FECs For example, an exporter in the South Africa has USD receivables in 3 months time. They wish to secure a rate today for delivery in 3 months time. The bank is quoting 3-month bid at 2000 pips and the spot is 15.0000 so the customer will receive 15.2000 for his USD in 3 months time irrespective of the prevailing spot. (quote outright forward rate to clients and not the pips) The bank in turn will use the FX swap market and the spot market to hedge the customer deal. In this example, the bank will buy and sell 3 – months and sell USD/ZAR spot. © Andre Kurten 2022 FX time Options Banks offer outright foreign exchange contracts to their customers on the following basis: 1.Fixed dated •This is the most common form of FX outright forward contract. •This is a contact where the customer can only take up the contract on the expiry date. •The customer can however shorten or extend this contract using a FX swap at their own cost. 2.Time options •this is an FX outright contract where the customer has flexibility on the drawdown date of the contract. •Time options can be offered in two ways: a. b. Partly optional – This is a contract which can be drawn down only after a certain time has elapsed but must be taken up by the expiry date. Fully optional – this is a contract that can be taken up at anytime from inception but must be taken up at expiry. © Andre Kurten 2022 FX time Options - Pricing Positive points Partly Optional The customer will sell the base currency to the bank at the bid side of the points for the start of the forward period added to the bid of the spot. If they wish to buy the base currency, they pay the offer side of the points for the full term of the contract added to the offer of the spot. Fully optional The customer will sell the base currency to the bank at the bid side of the spot. If they wish to buy the base currency, they pay the offer side of the points for the full term of the contract added to the offer side of the spot. Negative points Partly Optional If the contract is partly optional, the customer will sell the base currency to the bank at the bid side of the points for the end of the forward period subtracted from the bid of the spot. If they wish to buy the base currency, they pay the offer side of the points for the near leg of the contract subtracted from the offer of the spot. Fully optional The customer will sell the base currency to the bank at the bid side of the points for the full term subtracted from the bid of the spot. If they wish to buy the base currency, they pay the offer side of the spot. © Andre Kurten 2022 FX time Options - Pricing Example- positive points Spot USD/ZAR is 12.5075/85 1-mth points 200/210 2-mth points 425/435 3-mth points 550/570 a. A 3-month partly optional contract where the contract can be taken up after 1 month (1x3) would be quoted as USD/ZAR 12.5275/12.5655 ( bid: 12.5075+0.0200 offer: 12.5085+0.0570). b.A 3-month fully optional contract where the contract can be taken up at anytime in the 3 months would be quoted as USD/ZAR 12.5075/12.5655 ( bid: 12.5075 offer: 12.5085+0.0570). Example- Negative points Spot USD/CHF is 1.1075/85 1-mth points 30/25 2-mth points 45/35 3-mth points 50/45 c. A 3-month partly optional contract where the contract can be taken up after 1 month (1x3) would be quoted as USD/CHF 1.1025/1.1060 ( bid: 1.1075-0.0050 offer: 1.1085-0.0025). d.A 3-month fully optional contract where the contract can be taken up at anytime in the 3 months would be quoted as USD/CHF 1.1025/1.1085( bid: 1.1075-0.0050 offer: 1.1085). © Andre Kurten 2022 Forward exchange swaps This •A transaction involves TWO legs namely spot leg AND a forward leg. Assuming a dealer wants to buy 3-month USD in an FX swap against the CHF, he will then “sell and buy”. This means he will sell USD/CHF in the spot market and buy the 3-month USD/CHF in the same amount with the same counterparty simultaneously. Deals are usually interbank. The spot price is agreed immediately between the buyer and seller when the deal is done, and the points are added to the spot. •if the points are negative, then the forward rate will be LOWER than the spot. •The spot agreed is usually the mid rate of the current bid/offer. © Andre Kurten 2022 Forward Forward swaps This is a FX Swap starting at a future date other than spot •For example, a dealer wants to do a FX Swap for 3 months starting in 3 months time. •This is described as a 3x6 swap. RULE: Take the far bid and subtract the near offer to get the fwd–fwd bid and take the far offer and subtract the near bid to get the fwd – fwd offer. USD/CHF 3 mth Fwd pts 80/85 USD/CHF 6 mth Fwd pts 140/145 3x6 BID at 55 points. (140-85) 3x6 OFFER at 65 points ((145-80) The 3 x 6 bid/offer is 55/65. The ‘spot basis’ for a 3x6 forward forward swap is usually the mid-rate of bid/offer of the outright forward for the START of the forward period. © Andre Kurten 2022 Forward foreign exchange Value tomorrow price convention “switch the T/N points to change the sign and add to or, subtract from the spot”. Positive T/N Points Negative T/N Points The spot rate GBP/USD is 1.3500/1.3510 The T/N points are 2.5/2.6 (positive points L/H) Switch the points to make them negative (H/L) What is the bid/offer rate for tomorrow? 1.3500 1.3510 -0.00026 -0.00025 Tom price for GBP/USD = 1.34974/1.350750 The spot rate EUR/GBP is 0.8540/0.8545 The T/N points are 2/1 (negative points H/L) Switch the points to make them positive (L/H) What is the bid/offer rate for tomorrow? 0.8540 0.8545 +0.0001 +0.0002 Tom price for EUR/GBP = 0.8541/0.8547 Value today price convention “add the overnight and tom/next points (bid with bid and offer with offer) and switch to change the sign and add to or, subtract from the spot”. Positive T/N and O/N Points The spot rate GBP/USD is 1.3500/1.3510 O/N 2.8/3.0 and T/N 2.5/2.6 2.8 + 2.5 = 5.3 Bid 3.0 + 2.6 = 5.6 Switch the points to make them negative What is the bid/offer rate for tomorrow? 1.3500 1.3510 -0.00056 -0.00053 Value today for GBP/USD = 1.34944/1.350470 Negative T/N and O/N Points The spot rate EUR/GBP is 0.8540/0.8545 O/N 3/2 and T/N 2/1 3 + 2 = 5 Bid 2 + 1 = 3 Switch the points to make them positive What is the bid/offer rate for tomorrow? 0.8540 0.8545 +0.0003 +0.0005 Value today price for EUR/GBP = 0.8543/0.8550 © Andre Kurten 2022 Forward FX questions - 3 7. If you are quoted the following rates at what rate can you buy cable for value tomorrow? Spot cable 1.6540-43 O/N cable swap 1.20/1.15 T/N cable swap 1.80/1.72 A. 1.65444.15 B. 1.654480 C. 1.654185 D. 1.653880 8. How is an outright forward FX transaction quoted? A. Forward points B. Full forward exchange rate C. Depends on whether is interbank or to a customer D. Depends on the currency pair and sometimes the term 9. A “time option” is an outright forward FX transaction where the customer: A. Has the right but not the obligation to exercise the outright forward at maturity B. May freely choose the maturity of the option, given a 24-hout notice to the bank C. Can choose any maturity date within a previously pre-arranged fixed period of time D. May decide to deal at the regular maturity or on either the business day before or after the regular maturity date 10. A customer calls for a 3 month forward outright quote in USD/CHF. Spot is 1.4915/20. The forward is 42/40. What price do you quote? A. 1.4875/78 B. 1.4957/80 C. 1.4871/81 D. 1.4873/80 © Andre Kurten 2022 Forward FX questions - 4 11. The “spot basis” of a 3 against 6 months EUR/CHF forward/forward swap is: A. always the forward EUR/CHF bid rate of the first swap leg B. Generally, the prevailing 3-month forward EUR/CHF mid-rate C. commonly the prevailing 6-month forward EUR/CHF mid-rate D. normally the current spot EUR/CHF mid-market rate 12. If I say that I have “bought and sold” EUR/USD in an FX swap, what have I done? A. Bought EUR and sold USD spot, and sold EUR and bought USD forward B. Bought EUR/USD spot then sold EUR/USD forward C. Taken a EUR loan in exchange for making a USD loan with the same counterparty D. All of the above 13. You wish to sell a customer GBP/USD for value tomorrow. How can you hedge yourself? a. Sell and buy GBP/USD T/N b. Buy and sell GBP/USD T/N c. Sell GBP/USD spot, and sell and buy GBP/USD T/N d. Buy GBP/USD spot, and buy and sell GBP/USD T/N 14. 3-month EUR/USD FX swaps are quoted to you at 8/12. If the "points are in your favour", what have you done? A. Bought and sold 3-month EUR/USD through the swap B. Sold and bought 3-month EUR/USD through the swap C. Made the quote D. Cannot say © Andre Kurten 2022 NDFs - Non-Deliverable Forwards NDFs are currency contracts for difference (CFDs) and is like a FRA for foreign exchange rates. They are traded in countries where there is no formal forward exchange market or an illiquid forward market, NDF currencies: RUB, CNY, BRL, PHP,TWD,MYR, INR, PKR,VND, EGP, KES, UAH, ARS, CLP, COP, PEN. Mainly used for speculation but can be used for hedging. They are like forward outright FX deals where a future rate of exchange is agreed between the parties. At Expiry, only the DIFFERENCE between the fixing spot rate and the NDF contract rate is settled in the convertible currency (the base currency – usually USD). If at fixing the prevailing fixing spot rate is higher that the NDF rate, the seller pays the buyer the difference. If the prevailing exchange rate is lower, the buyer pays the seller. There is never an obligation to take or make delivery of the notional contract amount. © Andre Kurten 2022 NDF Example 3-month NDF in USD/CNY at 6.2500. Notional principal USD 10 million 2 scenarios in 3 months time: USD/CNY fixes at 6.2600. Difference of 100 pips on USD 10m is CNY100,000. Settlement occurs in USD so 100,000/6.2600 = USD 15,974.44 seller pays the buyer. 2. USD/CNY fixes at 6.2300. Difference of 200 pips on USD 10m is CNY200,000. Settlement occurs in USD so 200,000/6.2300 = USD 32,102.73 Buyer pays the seller. If this contract was used to hedge, the hedgers effective exchange rate will be the NDF rate provided they can procure the additional USD at the fixing rate in the spot market 1. © Andre Kurten 2022 The Precious Metals Market ISO codes for precious metals •Gold – XAU Fixing twice a day in London at 10.30am and 3.00pm •Platinum – XPT •Palladium – XPD •Silver – XAG The four major gold coins traded are: Kruger Rand, American Eagle, British Sovereign •all have a gold purity of 22 carats or 0.9167. The Canadian Maple leaf with a purity of 24 carats or 0.9999 According to the LBMA (London Bullion Market Ass.) assay across the range permitted for Good Delivery bars approximately 995.0 to 999.9 for gold unless specifically agreed by the LBMA. •They are to be within the weight range of 350 to 430 troy ounces for gold. •The bars are usually close to 400 troy ounces. The gold forward offered rate is known as the ‘GOFO’ rate. A LOCO account – is the equivalent of a Nostro account for gold. There may be questions on the above points in the foreign exchange section in the exam. © Andre Kurten 2022 NDF and Precious Metal questions 1. The seller of a EUR/RUB NDF could be: A. a potential buyer of EUR against RUB B. speculating on an appreciation of the Russian Rouble C. expecting rising EUR/RUB exchange rates D. a seller of Russian Rouble 2. The daily gold fixing rate takes place at N.M Rothschild’s: A. Once a day at 10:30am (London time) B. Once a day at 3:00pm (London time) C. Once a day at 12:00 noon (London time) D. Twice a day 10:30am and 3:00pm (London time) 3. How many Yen would you pay to buy 1 ounce of gold if you were quoted the following? XAU/USD 1575.25-75 USD/JPY 96.55-60 A. JPY 152,090 B. JPY 152,139 C. JPY 152,169 D. JPY 152,217 4. As far as fineness and weight are concerned, what are the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) requirements for a “good delivery bar”? A. minimum 995/999.9 pure gold; weight of exactly 400 fine ounces B. at least 995/999.9 pure gold; weight between 395 and 405 fine ounces C. at least 995/1000 pure gold; weight of exactly 400 fine ounces D. minimum 995/1000 pure gold; weight between 350 and 430 fine ounces © Andre Kurten 2022 Topic Basket 3 Rates Covered in Tutorial 3 © Andre Kurten 2022 Section Objectives Overall Objectives: The overall objective of this topic is for candidates to understand the principles of the time value of money, the function of the interest rates markets, the characteristics of the main types of money market instruments and interest rate capital markets instruments, as well as how they satisfy the requirements of different types of borrowers and lenders. Candidates will need to be able to calculate short-term interest rates and to perform standard calculations using quoted prices. Candidates will understand the basic characteristics and applications of a forward curve and of a yield curve and will be required to calculate them. At the end of this topic candidates need to be able to understand and outline the main features of bonds, particularly how they can be structured, priced and used as a key element in repo markets. Given the greater inherent complexity of repo instruments, candidates are required to be able to explain and calculate repo instruments issues and problems. • 18 questions comprising 12 theory and 6 calculation questions – 9 minimum correct answers © Andre Kurten 2022 Day Count – Annual Basis Conventions Always assume that you are a trader in London when doing the exam. In all calculations, the day count/annual basis convention used must be that which applies in London. Not all currencies calculate interest using the same day countannual basis convention. Domestic money markets use either ACT/365 or ACT/360 •ACT refers to the actual number of days in the investment period. You will always be given the days, but NOT the day base in the exam. •The following currencies given in the exam use a 360 annual basis convention. They are USD, EUR, CHF, CAD, SEK, NOK, DKK, AUD, NZD, SAR, ARS, MXN, and JPY. •Eurocurrency GBP, ZAR, PLN, HKD, SGD and INR use ACT/365. Since 1999 USD Treasury bonds and notes, Euro Denominated government bonds, GBP Gilts all use ACT/ACT convention for accrued interest calculations. © Andre Kurten 2022 Possible ACI Questions 1. Which of the following currencies use ACT/360 Day count/annual basis? A. GBP B. ZAR C.NZD D. SGD 2. Which of the following currencies use ACT/365 Day count/annual basis? A. AUD B. ZAR C. EUR D. JPY 3. What is the Day count/annual basis for accrued interest on GBP Gilts? A. ACT/ACT B. ACT/360 C. 30/360 D. ACT/365 4. Which of the following are all ACT/365 currencies? A. INR, SEK, USD, HKD B. SAR, ZAR, INR, HKD C. INR, ZAR, HKD, PLN D. NZD, SEK, AUD, HKD © Andre Kurten 2022 Benchmark Rates London Interbank Offered Rate - LIBOR (often referred to as ICE LIBOR) calculated by the ICE Benchmark Administration (IBA) and is a mean (simple average) of all the rates collected from several quoting banks. GBP, CHF,JPY, and EUR LIBOR ceased to be published after the 31st December 2021. USD LIBOR for one-week and two-month tenors ceased to be published after the 31st December 2021. The remaining USD LIBOR tenors will continue to be published until 30th June 2023. Euro Interbank Offered Rate - EURIBOR is calculated by the European Money Markets Institute in Brussels and is a mean of all the rates collected from the panel banks. The panel banks will quote the rates they believe are quoted by one prime bank to another prime bank for interbank term deposits within the Euro Zone. JBA Tokyo Interbank Offered Rate – JBA TIBOR calculated by Japanese Bankers Association as a prevailing market rate based on quotes for 5 different maturities (1 week, 1, 3, 6, and 12 months) provided by reference banks as of 11:00 a.m. each business day. Tokyo Term Risk Free Rate - TOFR is a benchmark calculated by QUICK based on the uncollateralized overnight call rate which involves almost no credit risk of financial institutions. Like existing interest rate benchmarks such as LIBOR, the rate is fixed as of the start of the interest rate calculation period, making the system and administrative burden associated with the switch, relatively small. It is published for 1-, 3-, and 6-month tenors. © Andre Kurten 2022 Overnight Index Benchmarks These rates are referred to as risk-free rates (RFRs) and are VOLUMEWEIGHTED AVERAGE RATES • • • • • • Sterling Overnight Index Average - SONIA calculated by Bank Of England (BOE) and measures the cost of overnight, unsecured borrowing which includes transaction amounts of GBP 25 million or more. EUR short-term rate - €STR is calculated by the European Central Bank (ECB) and reflects the wholesale euro unsecured overnight borrowing costs of euro area banks which includes transaction amounts of EUR 1 million or more. Effective Fed Funds Rate - EFFR for USD calculated by the NY Fed based on unsecured deposits. Secured Overnight Financing rate - SOFR is a a rate published by the NY Fed and determined from GC repo transaction against US treasuries as collateral. Swiss Average Rate Overnight - SARON calculated by the Swiss National Bank and is based on repo transactions which are secured. Tokyo overnight average rate - TONA calculated by the Bank of Japan is the cost of borrowing in the Japanese yen unsecured overnight money market. Typical exam questions: 1. Which of these risk-free rates represent secured transactions? A. ESTR B. TONA C. SOFR D. All the above 2. Who calculates the SONIA? A. BOE B. BOJ C. SNB. D. FED © Andre Kurten 2022 Rates format and basis points Interest rates quoted as fractions and decimals •The interest rates in the exam will be expressed as a decimal and quoted as a percentage per annum. It is still fairly common practice in some markets to express rates and prices as fractions. Basis points •1 basis point is 0.01% or 0.0001 as a decimal. Payment of Interest •Interest must be paid at least once every 12 months (annually) as interest rates are quoted per annum. Typical exam questions: 1. You quote a client a base rate of 3.15% and add a credit spread of 50 basis points. What rate does the client pay? A. 3.20% B. 3.55% C. 3.65% D. 8.15% 2. You invest in a 3-year Eurodollar deposit. How often will you receive interest? A. Once B. 3 times C. 36 times D. 6 times 3. 20 basis points is equivalent to: A. 0.20% B. 2% C. 0.02% D. 20% © Andre Kurten 2022 Interest Rate Calculations For the exam you will need to be able to do simple interest calculations in Section 1 as well as the sections covering money markets, FRAs, futures, interest rate swaps. These calculations are the foundation for financial mathematics. Always take care that you use the correct annual basis for the currency when doing the calculations as answers the examiners provide will all be ‘calculatable’ but only one will use the correct day count/annual basis. Most of the calculations will be easily done using a simple scientific calculator but are also done using the programed formulae on the HP17BII calculator. On the HP 17BII, all the simple interest calculations can be solved using the PV formula. You can solve for any of the variables in the formula. All interest rates should be input into the formulae as a whole number and not a decimal. © Andre Kurten 2022 Menu steps – Program the HP 17 BII If you have been provided with or purchased a Hewlett Packard 17BII calculator then it is a value asset in solving many of the calculations required in the exam. This is achieved by using formulae which you can program into the calculator. Push EXIT key until this menu appears FIN BUS SUM TIME SOLVE CURRX choose SOLVE and the menu below will appear CALC EDIT DELET NEW Choose NEW and the then start typing your equation using the alpha characters and the numerals and brackets The equation must have an equal number of these brackets “(“ as these brackets”)” otherwise the equation will be rejected Once you have completed typing the equation, push INPUT key and then CALC. If the formula is accepted, it will show you the formula menu. If it is unsuccessful, it will beep you and return to the formula for editing. To locate a formula in the calculator, use the scroll up scroll down buttons located on the left of the calculator below the input button. © Andre Kurten 2022 Formula programming HP17BII Programmable calculator Go to the solve function and follow the prompts to type in these formulae Simple interest Present value formula PV=FV÷(1+(IRxDAYS÷DB÷100)) Nominal interest rate converted to annual effective ANN%=(((1+(SEMI%÷200))^2)-1)x100 Bond basis to Money Market basis MM=BBx360÷365 Straight-Line Interpolation SLINT=SR + (RQDYS-SHTDYS)÷(LNGDYS-SHTDYS)x(LR-SR) Discount to yield YLD=DR÷(1-(DR÷100xDAYS÷DB)) Repo Haircut REPOCASH=BONDVAL÷(1+(HAIRCT÷100)) © Andre Kurten 2022 Formula and Abbreviations Forward Exchange Outright Rate FWDOR=SPTx(1+(QCIRxDYS÷100÷DBQ))÷(1+(BCIRxDYS÷100÷DBB)) Forward forward pricing for FRAs FFR=((1+(LRxLD÷DB÷100))÷(1+(SRxSD÷DB÷100))-1)x(DB÷(LD-SD)x100) Settlement amount of FRA FRASET=(DAYSx(LIB-FRA)xAMT÷DB÷100) ÷(1+(LIB÷100xDAYS÷DB)) Effective rate EFF=((1+(R1÷100xD1÷DB))x(1+(R2÷100xD2÷DB))x(1+(R3÷100xD3÷DB)) x(1+(R4÷100xD4÷DB))x(1+(R5÷100xD5÷DB))-1)x(DB÷(D1+D2+D3+D4+D5)) x100 Simple interest Present value formula PV= present value FV= future value IR= interest rate DAYS = days in period DB= day basis Semi-annual to annual effective ANN%= Annual effective percentage SEMI% = Nominal Annual percentage Bond Basis to Money Market Basis BB = Bond basis MM = Money Market basis Discount to yield YLD= true yield DR= pure discount rate DAYS= days DB= day basis © Andre Kurten 2022 Formula abbreviations Straight-Line Interpolation SLINT= Interpolated rate required RQDYS = required period SHTDYS = short days LNGDYS = Long days LR= Long rate SR= short rate Repo Haircut REPOCASH= Repo Cash amount BONDVAL = Collateral value HC = Haircut Forward Outright FX price SPT = Spot QCIR= quoted currency interest rate DYS = days DBQ= day basis for quoted currency BCIR= base currency interest rate DBB= Day basis for base currency Forward forward pricing for FRAs FRA = forward forward rate LR = long rate LD = long days SR= short rate SD= short days DB = day basis Settlement amount of FRA FRASET= FRA settlement amount DAYS = days in the forward period LIB = LIBOR (or equivalent) FRA= FRA rate AMT= notional amount DB = day basis Effective rate EFF= annual effective rate R1 = rate 1 D1 = days in period 1 DB= day basis R2, R3 etc same as for R1 and D1 Futures margin call calculation MCALL=CONX(MTM-POS)XTICVALX100 MCALL = margin call, CON= number of contracts, POS= position price, MTM = mark© Andre Kurten 2022 to-market price and TIC=tick value for that contract Simple Interest - interest due Paid on a principal amount over a single period I = PV x IR x D ÷ DB WHERE: I = Interest PV = Initial Principal IR = Rate as a decimal and NOT a percentage e.g. 1.25% is expressed as 0.0125 (1.25/100). D = Time (days in Period) DB = Annual Basis (360 or 365 days) Make sure you use the correct EXAMPLE You invest ZAR 1,000,000 for 180 days at 5.75%. How much interest will you earn for the investment period? Answer Using the formula I = PV x IR x T ÷ DB I = 1,000,000 x 0.0575 x 180 ÷ 365 = R28,356.16 Typical exam question: You borrow EUR 10m for 6-months (182 days) at an interest rate of 0.75%p.a. What interest amount do you pay at maturity? A.75,000 B.76,041.67 C.37,916.67 D. 37,397.26 © Andre Kurten 2022 Simple Interest - Future value The future value is the original principal plus interest earned. FV = PV + (PV x IR x D ÷ DB) Also FV = PV x (1+(IR x D ÷ DB)) WHERE: FV = Future Value or maturity value , PV = Principal, IR = Rate as a decimal and NOT a percentage e.g. 1.25% is expressed as 0.0125 (1.25/100), D = day count (days in Period), DB = Annual Basis (360 or 365 days) EXAMPLE You invest EUR 500,000 for 182 days at 3.75%. How much will you receive back at the end of the investment period? Answer Using the formula FV = PV + (PV x IR x D ÷ DB) FV = 500,000 + (500,000 x 0.0375 x 182 ÷ 360) = 509,479.17 Typical exam questions: 1. You borrow USD 10m for 3-months (90 days) at an interest rate of 1.25%p.a. What amount do you repay at maturity (capital plus interest)? A.10,030,821.92 B.10,031,250 C.10,125,000 D. 10,123,287.67 2. What is the amount of principal plus interest due at maturity of a 1-month (32 day) deposit of EUR 50,000,000 placed at 0.37%p.a.? A.50,015,416.67 B. 50,016,219.18 C.50,016,444.44 D. 50,016,958.33 © Andre Kurten 2022 Simple Interest – Present value Present value formula: PV = FV ÷ (1 + (IR x D ÷ DB)) EXAMPLE How much must an investor invest today at 4.625% to achieve USD 500,000 at the end of 273 days? Answer PV = FV ÷ (1 + (IR x D ÷ DB)) PV = 500,000 ÷ (1+ (0.04625 x 273 ÷ 360)) = 483,057.76 Typical exam questions: 1. After 6-months (180 days), you receive EUR 1,032,687.50 back on your investment placed at a rate of 1.50%. What amount did you originally invest? A.1,040,432.66 B.1,017,632.12 C.1,025,000 D. 1,017,426.11 2. How many GBP would you have to invest at 0.55% p.a. to be repaid 2,000,000 (Principal plus interest) in 90 days? A.1,997,253.78 B.1,997,291.34 C.1,997,287.67 D. 1,997,250 © Andre Kurten 2022 Simple Interest – Per annum Interest rate To calculate the per annum interest rate we manipulate the simple interest formula to arrive at: PA interest rate or IR = I ÷ PV x DB ÷ D x 100 Also IR = ((FV ÷PV) -1) x DB ÷ D The per annum Interest rate is also known as a yield, holding period return or true yield EXAMPLE A borrower pays USD 75,000 on USD 5,000,000 for a period of 90 days. What interest rate did he borrow at? PA interest rate = I ÷ PV x DB ÷ D x 100 PA interest rate = 75,000÷5,000,000x360 ÷90x100 = 6.00% p.a. Typical exam questions: 1. You earn interest of 100,000 on a CHF deposit of 15,500,000 for 6 months (182 days). What interest rate was earned your deposit? A.1.32% B.1.29% C.1.28% D. 0.65% 2. You borrow USD 5,000,000 and repay USD 5,075,000 after 180 days. What interest rate was charged on your borrowing? A.0.75% B. 3% C.5.75% D. 0.03% © Andre Kurten 2022 Bond and Money market basis To calculate the equivalent 365 day Money Market Basis (MM) rate given a 360 day rate Bond Basis (BB): MM rate = BB Rate x 360 ÷365 To calculate the equivalent 360 day Bond Basis (BB) rate given the Money Market Basis (MM) BB rate = MM Rate x 365 ÷360 Explanation of the concept A USD100,000 bond with an annual coupon of 5% will pay $5,000 in interest at the end of the year. An annual coupon bond will pay a round amount of interest as its coupon irrespective of the number of days in the year. However, a USD100,000 money market deposit at 5% for 1-year, where the actual days in the year are 365, will pay interest calculated as follows: 100,000 x 0.05 x 365 ÷ 360 = $5,069.44 The equivalent MM annual rate of 5% given the annual BB: 5 x 360/365 = 4.9315% Therefore, if you are offered 5% Money Market or 5% Bond Basis, you would choose Money Market as it will give you extra 5 days of interest. So we can deduce that the Money Market equivalent rate will always LOWER than the Bond Basis rate equivalent. © Andre Kurten 2022 Nominal to annual effective In the exam you may be required to convert a semi -annual rate to an annual equivalent or vice versa. You can also be asked to compound a number of given interest rates for consecutive periods to the effective equivalent. The ACI formula given for semi-annual to annual: 2 semi - annual rate annual rate 1 - 1 2 As an example, convert a semi-annual rate of 4.65% to an annual equivalent: 0.0465 1 2 2 - 1 0.04704 or 4.704% The ACI formula given for annual to semi-annual Semi annual rate (1 annual rate) 1 2 So taking an annual rate of 4.704% to its semi-annual equivalent: (1 0.04704) 1 2 0.046499or 4.65% © Andre Kurten 2022 Compounding consecutive period rates Using a scientific calculator, the formula to calculate the effective rate for three consecutive periods is as follows : (1+(IR1xD1/DB))x(1+(IR1xD1/DB)x(1+(IR2xD2/DB))x(1+(IR3xD3/DB))=-1= xDB/(D1+D2+ D3)x100 I have indicated the formula given 3 consecutive rates, but you can use it to solve for 2 or more consecutive rates. An example: calculate the 9-month spot rate for USD given the following. 3-month spot rate 2.50% (91 days), 3x6 rate 2.65% (91 days) and 6x9 rate 2.75% (91 days) (1+(0.0250x91/360)) x (1+(0.0265x91/360)) x (1+(0.0275x91/360))=-1= x360/(91+91+91)x100 = 2.65% p.a. Remember you can also use the EFF formula in the HP calculator. Typical exam question: What is the 6-month USD spot rate given the following: 3-month spot rate 2.25% (91 days), 3x6 (90) rate 2.35% A. 2.30% B. 2.25% C. 2.31% D. 1.15% © Andre Kurten 2022 BB to MM and Compounding Interest Questions 1. Which of the following rates represents the highest investment yield in the Euromarket? A. Semi-annual bond yield of 3.75% B. Annual bond yield of 3.75% C. Semi-annual money market yield of 3.75% D. Annual money market rate of 3.75% 2. Convert 8.25% quoted on a semi-annually compounded money market basis for USD to the equivalent annually-compounded bond basis. A. 8.30% B. 8.52% C. 8.54% D. 8.69% 3. If the 12-month US T-bill is quoted at 1.95% on a money market basis, what is the equivalent yield on a bond basis? A. 1.92% B. 1.95% C. 1.97% D. 1.98% © Andre Kurten 2022 BB to MM and Compounding Interest Questions 4. What equivalent rate would you pay annually if you were prepared to pay 6% semiannually? A. 6% B. 6.5% C. 6.09% D. 5.91% 5. An overnight deposit of GBP 10,000,000.00 is made on Monday at 0.40% and is then rolled on Tuesday at 0.45%, on Wednesday at 0.50%, on Thursday at 0.48% and on Friday at 0.53%. How much is repaid (principal plus capitalised interest) on the following Monday? A. GBP 10,000,936.99 B. GBP 10,000,950.03 C. GBP 10,000,937.02 D. GBP 10,000,646.59 6. What is the 9-month spot rate given: 3-month spot rate = 3.15% 3x6 FRA rate = 3.15% 6x9 FRA rate = 3.30% (Assuming 30/360 day count convention) A. 4.86% B. 3.26% C. 3.23% D. 3.19% © Andre Kurten 2022 Yield Curves Classic or Normal Yield Curve Rate • • • • This yield curve is gently upward sloping. The Liquidity preference theory is used to explain a classic yield curve. Simply stated the longer I give up my money on deposit the less liquid I am therefore I expect to earn a higher interest rate. A positive yield curve is steeply upward sloping. A positive yield curve is explained using the interest rate expectations theory Maturity Inverted or Negative Yield Curve Rate • The Interest rate expectations theory is used to explain an inverted yield curve. Simply stated, it says that although interest rates are currently high, the yield curve indicates that short-term interest rates are expected to be lower in the future. Maturity • The Market segmentation theory is used to describe a humped yield curve. Simply stated it says that certain market participants operate in clearly defined segments of the yield curve and can only be persuaded to migrate to a different segment if offered a significant premium to do so. Humped Yield Curve Rate Maturity © Andre Kurten 2022 Yield Curves questions 1. Given the following interest rate scenario in June and November, how would you describe the yield curve shape in June and what has happened to the yield curve between June and November? June November 1 month 2.27% 2.27% 2 months 2.35% 2.38% 3 months 2.40% 2.48% 6 months 2.65% 2.85% 12 months 2.75% 2.95% A. Flat; Steepening B. Normal; Flattening C. Inverse; Flattening D. Normal; Steepening 2. The Market Segmentation hypothesis suggests that the yield curve bends at some point along its length because: A. Investors have less appetite for longer-term investments B. Borrowers prefer to borrow long-term but lenders prefer to lend short-term C. Different types of institution tend to specialize in different maturity ranges D. The risk premium becomes significant only at longer maturities 3. Short-term rates are higher than long-term rates. How would you describe the shape of the yield curve? A. Flat B. Normal C. Inverted D. Humped © Andre Kurten 2022 Straight-line Interpolation You may be required to do straight-line interpolation in the exam. This is finding an interest rate (or forward points) between two points given the quotes around that point. The assumption is that it falls on a straight line between the two quotes given. Examples Given the 3-month (90 day) rate of 3.50% and the 6-month (180 day) rate of 4.10% calculate the 4-month (120 day) rate. Calculate the difference between the far rate and the near rate 4.10-3.50 = 0.60. Divide this number by the months (or days) between the two dates 0.60 by 3 = 0.20. This is the rate increase (or decrease) per month. Add 0.20 to 3.50 = 3.70% which is the 4-month (120 day) rate. Alternatively using days 0.60/90 = 0.0067 per day. 0.0067x30 = 0.20 + 3.50 = 3.70% Typical exam questions 1. If the 90-day USD interest rate is 3.10% p.a. and the 180-day USD interest rate is 3.50% p.a., what is the 120-day interest rate using straight line interpolation? 2. The 92-day EUR/NOK rate is bid 302 and the 61-day EUR/NOK rate is bid 186. What is the EUR/NOK bid rate for 81 days, assuming straight-line interpolation? 3. Calculate the 10-day mid-rate swap points Using SLI given the following mid-rates: O/N 2, T/N 2.5, 1-Week 14, 2-Weeks 21, 1-month 65 © Andre Kurten 2022 Straight-line interpolation - Example Given the 6-month points of 200 and 3-month points of 146, calculate the the 5-month points. We assume that the points for the 5-months lies on a straight line between 3 and 6 months. The difference between the 6-month and 3-month points is 54 (200 – 146). So, the points increase by 54 between 3 months and 6 months. We can deduce therefore that the points increase by 18 points per month. 54 divided by 3 = 18. Now we can derive the 5-month points by deducting 1 months worth of points from the 6month points (or add two months worth of points to the 3-month points). So, 18 subtracted from 200 to get 182 points for the 5 months. You can also divide 54 by 90 days and multiply by 60 to get the change between the 3-months and 5-months © Andre Kurten 2022 Forward forward rates Forward forward interest rates are interest rates which pertain today to deposit periods commencing in the future. These rates are calculated from the two interest rates that straddle than period. If you know what the 3-month rate and the 6-month rate are, as illustrated below, you are able to calculate the 3-month rate starting in 3 months time. This rate would be referred to as a 3x6 or 3’s against 6’s. NOTE: This is NOT the same as straight-line interpolation. What is the rate for this period? 0 Borrow funds for 3 months 3 Short funds for 3 months 6 Lend for six months © Andre Kurten 2022 The Forward Forward Pricing Formula FR 1 LD/DB X LR DB - 1 X 1 SD/DB X SR LD - SD Where: FR LR SR SD DB LD = forward rate = long rate = short rate = short days = day base = long days Using this formula, calculate the fair value for a USD 3-month SOFR Interest rate starting in 3 months time (a 3x6) given the following information: 6-month SOFR rate (LR) = 4% (0.04) 3-month SOFR rate (SR) = 3.50% (0.035) SD =90 days LD =180 days DB = 360 © Andre Kurten 2022 3-Month SFOR forward interest rate 0.04 180 1 360 360 FR 1 100 0.035 90 180 90 1 360 1.02 360 100 1 1.00875 90 4.461% p.a. for a 3 month rate in 3 months time © Andre Kurten 2022 Checking the formula – An example Lend 1m @ 4% for 180 days results in interest receivable of $20,000 (1mx0.04x180/360) Borrow 1m @ 3.5% for 90 days results in interest payable of $8,750 (1mx0.035x90/360) Difference in interest is $11,250 (20,000 – 8,750) To calculate the fair value interest rate for the remaining 90 days, the rate calculated must utilize the capital plus interest after the first 90 days to achieve the amount repayable at the end of 180 days. Calculated as follows: 11,250 360 x x 100 1,008,750 90 4.461% p.a. for the 90 day 3x6 forward period © Andre Kurten 2022 Forward/forward interest rate Questions 1. Using the following rates, what is the rate for a USD deposit which runs from 6 to 12 months? 6M (184-day) USD deposit 0.50% 12M (366-day) USD deposit 1.00% A. 0.50% B. 0.75% C. 1.00% D. 1.50% 2. If the 3-month rate is 4.5% and the 6-month rate is 4.95%, what is the 3x6 month forwardforward rate? (assume a 30/360 day count) A. 4.125% B. 4.725% C. 5.225% D. 5.340% 3. If the market is quoting the following rates, what is the 3x9 rate in SEK? 3-month (91-day) SEK 1.09% 6-month (182-day) SEK 1.22% 9-month (273-day) SEK 1.35% A. 1.220% B. 1.346% C. 1.476% D. 1.600% © Andre Kurten 2022 Volume-weighted Average Rate A dealer, who has concluded several transactions whether in the deposit or spot foreign exchange market, needs to know what their net position is, and at what rate they hold that position. This is a vital function in deciding what course of action needs to be taken to either take profit or cut losses. This is easily determined using a volume-weighted average rate calculation where each transaction is weighted by multiplying the amount by the rate at which the transaction was done. The sum of the weights is divided by the net sum of the transactions. This will give the dealer his net position and the average rate of his position. An example: Calculate a dealers cost of funding after taking in the following EUR deposits for 90 days: 400m at 2.15%, 200m at 2.08%, 300m at 2.17%, and 600m at 2.05% Because all the the transactions are for the same period and are all deposits, we can simply multiply each amount by the rate to get the weighting. +400 x 2.15 = 860 +200 x 2.08 = 416 +300 x 2.17 = 651 +600 x 2.05 = 1,230 +1,500 3,157 Average rate calculated as 3,157/1,500 = 2.105% The dealer ends up long EUR 1,5Bn at an average of 2.105% © Andre Kurten 2022 Volume-Weighted Average Calculations An example with a borrowing and lending where you end up with a short position If you have invested EUR 10 million for 182 days at 6% and borrowed EUR 7 million for 182 days at 5.8125%, what is the average (breakeven) rate of the remaining uncovered EUR 3 million position? -10 x 6 = +60 +7 x 5.8125 = - 40.6875 -3 +19.3125 Divide the weighted amount remaining with the net position in EUR. 19.3125/3 = 6.4375% is the weighted-average rate at which you need to borrow the remaining EUR 3million to breakeven on your money market book. Typical Exam Question You have taken in the following 3-month (90 day) deposits: EUR 10,000,000 @ 0.60% EUR 5,000,000 @ 0.40% EUR 5,000,000 @ 0.50% What is the average cost of funding? A. 0.75% B. 0.45% C. 0.375% D. 0.525% © Andre Kurten 2022 Money Market Instruments Interest-Bearing or YIELD Instruments •Deposits-call and term •Certificates of Deposit (CDs) Discount Instruments •Treasury Bills •Bankers Acceptances (BAs) – known as eligible bills in the UK. (GBP denominated). BAs are often referred to a two-name paper. •Commercial Paper Not all these instruments are issued by banks, and all are unsecured. However, Treasury Bills are seen as risk free as they are issued by Governments and therefore should have the lowest yield. Eurocurrency deposits A Eurocurrency deposit or borrowing is one which is undertaken in a currency that is not the the domestic currency in the center where the trade is done. For example, a USD deposit or USD CD done in London is referred to as Eurodollar Deposit or CD. Settlement Irrespective of where a deal is undertaken or who does the deal, the currency will always settle in the country where that is the domestic currency. For example, if two German banks do a USD deposit in London, the deal will settle in New York. © Andre Kurten 2022 Maturities in the Money Market Value dates must be working days in the centre where the funds are cleared and calendar rolls modified following (CRMF) will apply on deposits. For example, a deposit will run from the 1st to 1st of maturing month and so on. If the 1st of the maturing month is a weekend or holiday, then the deal is rolled forward to to the next good business day. IF however by rolling forward the maturity date would fall into the next month, then you MUST roll backwards to the previous good day. Periods for trading deposits (or foreign exchange) : From overnight up to 4 weeks are classified as “short dates” 1 month to 1 year is classified as “fixed dates” Longer than 1 year in medium term Domestic deposits (GBP) value date is the same as the deal date, whereas euro deposits (other than GBP) trade out of spot which is two good business days after the deal date. Month end deposits which start on the last business day of a month will mature on the last dealing date of the future month. This is known as the “end-to-end” convention. For example, a GBP deposit done on the Wednesday 26th June for 2 months will mature on the 26th August. A USD deal done on Wednesday 26th June will be for value Friday 28th June (last working day in June) and would mature on 31st August (last business day in August). For example a 1-month deposit starting (value) Friday 27th February will mature on the 31st March assuming no public holidays or weekend. Turn of the month is a deal done starting on the last working day of the month and maturing on the first working day of the next month. © Andre Kurten 2022 Quotation and Dealing on Prices Prices in the money market are ALWAYS quoted as percentages per annum, either in decimals or fractions Two sides to every price BID and OFFER Difference between bid and offer is known as the SPREAD. Most financial centers use Bid/Offer for cash International Market quotation is used in the exam Bid for Cash Offer for Assets 5.15/5.25 Offer for Cash Bid for Assets London Market quotation is NOT used in the exam Bid for assets Offer for assets 5.25/5.15 Offer for cash Bid for cash Dealing as market maker or market user Whenever you are quoted an interest rate or price by the market, you will ALWAYS borrow (buy) at the higher price and lend (sell) at the lower price. When YOU are quoting a price to a customer they will always borrow (buy) from you at the higher price and lend (sell) to you at the lower price. If the market quote for USD deposits is 5.15/25 (international) or 5.25/15 (London style) then you would borrow at 5.25 and lend at 5.15 irrespective of the style of quote. This principle is VERY IMPORTANT as many questions will test your ability to identify the side on which you are dealing as part of the question. © Andre Kurten 2022 Discount Instruments Issued at a discount to Face value Has no coupon rate Face value repaid at maturity date Fixed maturity date To compare the return on straight discount instruments with interest bearing instruments, you need to convert the discount to a yield Banker’s acceptances (eligible Bills are often referred to as “two name paper”) To calculate the discount or purchase price of a discount instrument you need: The face value The discount rate (or yield for yield to discount bills) The days to maturity (tenor of the bill) The day count convention i.e., 365 or 360 The purchase price of straight discount bills is the face value minus discount The purchase price of yield to discount bills is the present value of the face value NB: always check which interest rate is provided. It will be clear in the question whether the interest rate is a discount rate or yield. © Andre Kurten 2022 Discount Paper ACI Formulas To calculate the discount amount for a straight discount bill Discount Amount = Face value x discount rate x days/DB To calculate secondary market proceeds (SMP) for a straight discount bill SMP = Face Value X (1 - (Discount Rate x Days ÷ DB)) NB: To calculate the purchase price of the straight discount instrument you can simply deduct the discount amount from the face value To calculate SMP for a yield to discount bill SMP = Face Value ÷ (1 + (yield Rate x Days ÷ DB)) This is the Present value formula for a known future cash flow. To calculate the true yield of a straight discount rate True yield = Discount rate÷ (1 - (Discount Rate x Days ÷ DB)) NOTE: Discount instruments are sold for a price below 100. This simply means you will ALWAYS pay less than the face value for a discount instrument. NOTE: The true yield will always be HIGHER than the equivalent discount rate © Andre Kurten 2022 Straight Discount and Yield to Discount USD Treasury bills are straight discount with tenors of 4,13,26 and longest 52 weeks. US domestic commercial paper – USCP trades on a straight discount and cannot be issued for more than 270 days. Some discount instruments are quoted as a yield to maturity, but are discount instruments. Euro currency commercial paper ECP and GBP (Sterling) Treasury Bills are quoted on a true yield rather than a straight discount Please note that GBP Treasury Bills are issued for 28, 91,182, or a maximum of 364 days. (never issued for 364 to date) ECP can be issued for periods of 7 to 365 days. The purchase price is calculated in the same way as CD consideration by using the present value calculation. The face value is used as the future value. © Andre Kurten 2022 Discount Instrument Examples Straight Discount bill A Treasury bill with a face value of USD 10m is issued at a discount rate of 1.25% p.a. for 90 days. Calculate the discount amount, secondary market proceeds (SMP), and true yield. SMP = 10m x (1 - (0.0125 x 90 ÷ 360)) = 9,968,750 Or Discount amount = 10,000,000 x 0.0125 x 90 ÷ 360 = 31,250 SMP = 10,000,000 – 31,250 = 9,968,750 True yield = 1.25 ÷ (1 – (0.0125 x 90 ÷ 360)) = 1.254% Yield to Discount bill Calculate the Secondary Market proceeds of a 91-day Treasury Bill with a face value of GBP 10,000,000 trading at a yield of 2.75% p.a. SMP = 10,000,000÷ (1 + (0.0275 x 91 ÷ 365)) = 9,931,905.23 © Andre Kurten 2022 Discount instruments questions 1. Which of the following money market instruments typically pays return in the form of a discount to face value? A. USCP B. Classic repo C. CD D. Euro CD 2. 145-day USCP is quoted at a discount rate 2.40%. What is the true yield? A. 2.38% B. 2.40% C. 2.42% D. 2.44% 3. A 91-day UK treasury bill with a face value of GBP 50,000,000 is quoted at a yield of 4.25%. How much is the bill worth? A. GBP 47,875,000.00 B. GBP 49,462,847.22 C. GBP 49,470,205.48 D. GBP 49,475,760.27 4. You are quoted a discount rate of 1.50%p.a. on a discount instrument with 30 days remaining to maturity. What is the equivalent true yield to two decimal places? A. 1.45% B. 1.55% C. 1.50% D. 1.40% © Andre Kurten 2022 Certificates Of Deposit - CDs CDs are issued in bearer form mostly immobilized and held by custodians and are actively traded in the secondary market. The CDs have a fixed interest rate known as the coupon and interest is paid at maturity for CDs shorter than 1 year and CDs longer than 1-year pay interest periodically, usually semi-annually or annually. CDs are issued with a fixed maturity of no longer than five years, but the liquid market is generally for issues from one month to one year CDs can only be issued by banks and, like normal deposits, are unsecured. Banks use CDs to raise term funding (raising liquidity). CDs are usually issued at par and trade in the secondary market at the current market yield relevant to the term to maturity They usually trade at a price HIGHER than par (the face value). To calculate the secondary market price, you need: Par value (face value) of CD Coupon or issue rate Market Yield (Current rate at which CD is traded) Days from issue to maturity Days from settlement to maturity day basis of 360 or 365 © Andre Kurten 2022 CD Calculations Maturity Value of a CD The maturity value of a CD is the par value plus interest for the full term applying the issue rate or coupon. NB: The maturity value of the CD never changes and is paid by the issuer to the holder at maturity. MV = P + (P x C x D ÷ DB) Also MV = P x (1+(C x D ÷ DB)) WHERE: MV = Future Value or maturity value P = Par value (also Face Value) C = Coupon rate as a decimal and NOT a percentage e.g. 1.25% expressed as 0.0125 (1.25/100). D = Time (days in Period) DB = Annual Basis (360 or 365 days) Secondary Market proceeds (SMP) The SMP of a CD is the present value of the maturity value applying the current market yield at sale PV = FV ÷ (1 + (R x D ÷ DB)) Holding Period Return (HPR) The HPR is the yield achieved by the investor for the period that they held the CD before selling it. NB: When you hold a CD to maturity, whether bought as issue or in the secondary market, the yield you achieve is equal to the yield at which you purchased the CD. HPR = (SMP – PAR) ÷ P x DB ÷ D x 100 Also HPR = ((SMP ÷PAR) -1) x DB ÷ D x 100 © Andre Kurten 2022 CD Example Calculate the maturity value, Secondary market proceeds, and holding period return for a USD CD with a par value of USD 1,000,000 and a coupon of 6.50% issued for 180 days which is now sold at a market yield of 6% p.a. with 60 days remaining to maturity. Maturity Value MV = 1,000,000 + (1,000,000 x 0.065 x 180 ÷ 360) = 1,000,000 + 32,500 = 1,032,500 Secondary Market proceeds SMP = 1,032,500 ÷ (1 +(0.06 x 60 ÷ 360)) = 1,032,500 ÷ 1.01 = 1,022,277.23 Holding period return HPR = (1,022,277.23 – 1,000,000) ÷ 1,000,000 x 360 ÷ 120 x 100 = 22,277.23 ÷ 1,000,000 x 360 ÷ 120 x 100 = 6.683% Issue USD 1,000,000 par 6.50% coupon Holding Period 120 days Sale Maturity Remaining tenor 60 days SMP 1,022,277.23 PV the Maturity value using the market yield of 6% to calculate the SMP 1,032,500 Maturity value is the Par value plus interest for the full period using the coupon of 6.50% © Andre Kurten 2022 Calculating the profit/loss on CD When calculating the profit or loss on a CD, you need to consider the difference between the book value of the CD which is the original purchase price (the par value) plus accrued interest to date against the consideration received at sale. In our example accrued interest plus par value is: 1,000,000 +(1,000,000 x 0.065 x 120 ÷ 360) = 1,021,666.67 The “dirty price” at sale was equal to 1,022,277.23 To determine the profit (loss) subtract the book value from the dirty price: •1022,277.23 – 1,021,666.67 = 610.56 profit on sale of CD An important way of determining whether a profit or loss has resulted: When selling a CD at a market yield HIGHER than the Coupon, you will make a capital LOSS. When selling a CD at a market yield LOWER than the Coupon, you will make a capital PROFIT. When selling a CD after issue date at a market yield EQUAL to the Coupon, you will make a SMALL capital LOSS. © Andre Kurten 2022 Islamic Money Market Instruments As interest is forbidden under Sharia law, all financial instruments cannot offer a return in the form of interest. The structures most used are Murabahah and Mudarabah Murabahah This contact is the most prevalent form of Islamic finance. The contract is effectively a sale on profit or cost-plus contract. There are two contracts in Murabaha: first contract is between the client (depositor or borrower) and the bank and the second is between the bank and the supplier. The client orders a certain commodity through the bank and the bank then buys the commodity from the supplier and sells it to the client with a specified profit whereby the client makes a lump sum payment (in the case of a depositor) or a stream of deferred payments (in the case of a borrower) to the bank. Mudharabah The term refers to a form of business contract in which one party brings capital and the other personal effort. The proportionate share in profit is determined by mutual agreement. But the loss, if any, is borne only by the owner of the capital, in which case the entrepreneur gets nothing for his labour. The financier is known as ‘rabal-maal’ and the entrepreneur as ‘mudarib’. As a financing technique adopted by Islamic banks, it is a contract in which all the capital is provided by the Islamic bank while the business is managed by the other party. The profit is shared in pre-agreed ratios, and loss, if any, unless caused by negligence or violation of terms of the contract by the ‘mudarib’ is borne by the Islamic bank. The bank passes on this loss to the depositors. © Andre Kurten 2022 CD and Islamic money market questions 1. If the UK branch of a US bank issues a USD-denominated certificate of deposit in London, which of the following types of CD has it issued? A. euro B. foreign C. domestic D. Yankee 2. A 2.50% CD was recently issued at par which you now purchase at 2.35%. You would expect to pay: A. The face value of the CD B. More than the face value C. Less than the face value D. Too little information to decide 3. A CD with a face value of EUR 10 million and a coupon of 3% was issued at par for 182 days and is now trading at 3.10% with 120 days remaining to maturity. What has been the capital gain or loss since issue? A. Loss of EUR 52,161.00 B. Profit of EUR 47,839.00 C. Loss of EUR 3,827.67 D. Nil 4. You buy a 30-day 4% CD with a face value of GBP 20 million at par when it is issued. You sell it in the secondary market after 10 days at 4.05%. What is your holding period return? A. 4.05% B. 3.891% C. 3.838% D. 1.946% 5. How would you describe an Islamic money market instrument where there is a sharing of profit on a costplus basis? A. Murabahah B. rabal-maal C. mudarib D. Mudharabah © Andre Kurten 2022 Introduction to the Bond Market Bonds are long-term financial instruments usually issued by government In the USA They are known as T-Notes (shorter then 10 years), or T-Bonds (longer than 10 years), and Gilts in London. In France they are known as BTANs for short-dated bonds and OATS for long-dated bonds. Germany are Bubl and Schatz for short-dated bonds and Bunds for long-dated bonds. MAJOR ISSUERS •80% are government bonds, and the balance is made up by bonds issued by public enterprises and banks MAJOR BUYERS/TRADERS •Insurance companies, pension funds, and other large corporations and major financial institutions. •Bonds are also used by swap traders to hedge open positions. © Andre Kurten 2022 Conditions of Bond Issue When a bond is first issued, the issuer (borrower) will do so under the covering of an Indenture. This indenture is often referred to as a prospectus. This document provides the conditions that the bond issuer agrees to fulfil on the bond during its life and these typically relate to: The coupon that will be paid and the frequency of the payment The redemption value of the bond at expiry. Any options on the bond such as a call option which gives the issuer the right but not the obligation to repay the bond prior to expiry. The issuer MAY NOT change the prospectus without the express permission of the holder of the bond. © Andre Kurten 2022 Zero Coupon Bonds Non–coupon bearing bonds usually issued by government. They are the purest form of bond. They ALWAYS trade below 100 that is, they are issued and trade at a discount to their face value (less than their face value) and the face value is repaid at maturity They pay no interest so often NO TAX payable on interest, They are MOST Sensitive to a change in interest rates. Discounted using market rate Purchase date Face value repaid at Maturity Maturity © Andre Kurten 2022 Fixed Interest Bonds Also known as “Plain Vanilla” or straight bonds. •This is the usual form for issuing treasuries or gilts. Pay fixed interest periodically usually semi-annually Issued by government and other state organisations as well as corporates They are usually issued at their face value also known as par. •Bonds same. trade at par when the yield to maturity and coupon rate are the Flip Flop bonds and certain Brady bonds also pay a fixed coupon. All cash flows are discounted using the yield to maturity to arrive at the purchase price Face value and last coupon repaid at Maturity Purchase date Maturity Coupons\ © Andre Kurten 2022 Floating rate notes (FRNs) Issued at par with floating coupon linked to a short-term benchmark interest rate typically SOFR The coupon is usually SOFR plus a fixed spread over the SOFR rate e.g. 6-month SOFR + 50 basis points They are usually issued by corporates They are issued at face value and the near coupon is fixed in advance and resets are done on each of the following coupon dates They are traded in a similar fashion to CDs and trade close to their face value 6-month SOFR + Margin Purchase price close to Par ? ? Face value and last coupon repaid at Maturity Maturity © Andre Kurten 2022 Index Linked Bonds The coupon payments are linked to an index •typically the inflation index These bonds are issued at face value and usually by the government against a fixed margin over CPI (Consumer Price Inflation) Index The coupon is fixed in advance and reset at predetermined intervals In the USA they are known as TIPS (Treasury InflationProtected Securities) Traded in a similar fashion to FRNs CPI + Margin Purchase price close to Par ? ? Face value and last coupon repaid at Maturity Maturity © Andre Kurten 2022 Asset-Backed Securities These are bonds which have the backing of an income producing asset, typically bank debt in the form of long-term debt instruments such as mortgages or short-term debt instruments, such as credit card receipts. The assets are removed from the balance sheet of the bank and placed in a separate entity referred to as a special purpose vehicle (SPV) There are usually different classes of bonds issued in a single issue based on the credit of the underlying Assets. This process is often referred to a securitisation Issuing Bank Removes assets Frees up capital Place assets in SPV against which the bonds are issued Trust or SPV Issues bonds of differing classes based on the underlying credit Balance sheet Bond Market © Andre Kurten 2022 Covered Bonds A covered bond is a package of loans that were issued by banks and then sold to a financial institution for resale. The individual loans that make up the package remain on the books of the banks that issued them and serve as a collateral pool thus providing an additional layer of security for holders of these bonds. Covered bonds are a type of derivative instrument. Elements of the covered bond may include public sector loans and mortgage loans. A covered bond is essentially a standard, corporate bond issued by a financial institution with an extra layer of investor protection. One key difference between covered bonds and asset-backed securities, is that the loans backing a covered bond remain on the balance sheet of the issuing bank. Therefore, even if the institution becomes insolvent, investors holding the bonds may still receive their scheduled interest payments from the underlying assets of the bonds, as well as the principal at the bond’s maturity. Because of this extra layer of protection, covered bonds typically have AAA ratings © Andre Kurten 2022 Convertible Bonds These bond can pay a fixed or floating coupon usually issued by corporates to raise capital as an alternative to issuing new shares. Imbedded in the bond is the right to convert the bond into ordinary shares at a predetermined share price on specific dates in the future (Bermudan option) Traded in the market at a price reflective of: •current interest rate conditions, •the credit rating of the issuer, •and the current value of the imbedded option The right to exercise the option rests with the holder of the bond Once the bond is converted, the bond ceases to exist and the holder now has ordinary shares in the company © Andre Kurten 2022 Foreign Currency Bonds These bonds are issued by non-residents borrowers in a domestic market. •For example, a Nigerian company wanting to borrow Pounds would issue a GBP bond in the London market and this bond would be traded in the UK domestic bond market. The Nigerian company issue would fall under the jurisdiction of the UK bond market and would be subject to stringent credit rating criteria. These bonds have nick names such as: •“Yankee” for US bonds issues, •“Samurai” for Yen, and •“Bulldog” for Pounds. Issuers and investors can use the derivatives market to manage the currency risk relating to the bond cash flows. •The most used structure is a cross-currency swap. © Andre Kurten 2022 Eurobonds These bonds are issued outside of the jurisdiction of any single currency and trade across international borders They are issued in bearer form and therefore the holders name DOES NOT appear on a register anywhere. They are underwritten by international syndicates They are usually issued in a currency other than the currency of the country in which they are issued. This market is the next biggest market after the government bond market. Issuers tend to be governments, parastatals, and large multinational corporations. Euroclear and Clearstream are the main clearers for these bonds in the global markets. Once again derivatives are used to manage the currency risk for issuers investors. © Andre Kurten 2022 Islamic Bonds - Sukuk Type of Sukuk Sukuk al murabahah Sukuk al mudarabah Sukuk al-ijara Sukuk al-salam Sukuk al musharaka Sukuk al istisna Characteristics The SPV can use the investors capital to purchase an asset and sell it to the obligator on a cost-plus-profit-margin basis. The obligator makes deferred payments to the investors like a fixed income bond. The investor and the SPV are silent parties and the party that utilises the funds is the working partner. The profit from the investment activity is shared between both parties based on the initial agreement, but any loss is absorbed sole by the investors. The ijara contract is essentially a rental or lease contract. The SPV receives the proceeds from the investors and in return each investor gets part ownership of the asset to be leased. The investors funds are used to purchase assets from the obligator in the future. This contract requires an agent (which could be the underwriter) to sell the future assets because the investor wants cash back at maturity and not the assets. The investors holding this sukuk are the owners of the joint venture, asset, or business activity and therefore have a right to share in the profits. The investors have committee who participate in the decision-making process. The investors are the buyers of a project and the obligator is the manufacturer. The manufacturer delivers the finished project (usually a construction project) to a buyer who, under a separate ijara contract, will lease the asset to another party for regular payments. © Andre Kurten 2022 Other forms of bonds Junk Bonds •these are corporate bonds which do not have investment grade status. •In other words, they have been rated by the rating agencies as noninvestment grade. •No Credit rating. •The most recognised rating agencies are Standard and Poors (S&P) and Moody’s. •Junk bonds will usually trade at a price well below their face value. Callable bonds •these are bonds which can be recalled by the issuer prior to expiry where they usually pay the holder the face value or a premium on the face value for early redemption Commercial paper this is paper issued by non-banking institutions is usually of shorter duration than bonds and is typically a discount instrument. US Commercial paper is issued for periods not longer than 270 days. © Andre Kurten 2022 Dirty price, Clean price and Redemption value Dirty price (also known as the all-in price) •The clean price plus accrued interest and is the actual price paid for the bond by the buyer. Clean price •is the price of the bond once an adjustment has been made for the accrued interest. Bonds trade on clean price settle on dirty price. The clean price will EQUAL the dirty price when the settlement date is on a coupon payment date i.e., there is no accrued interest adjustment. Redemption value of a bond •is the amount paid back at maturity. •A redemption premium is an amount paid over and above the par value so, if a fixed income bond has an annual coupon of 5%, it will usually pay back at least 105% at maturity. •It should always pay at least PAR and never less than PAR. © Andre Kurten 2022 Bond Quotation and Pricing Bond quotation Bonds are quoted in a market either as a clean price or as a Yield-to-Maturity (YTM) i.e., in terms of interest rates. NOTE: the price of a bond and is yield to maturity move inversely to one another i.e., if the yield-to-maturity rises, the price of the bond will fall and if the yield falls, the price of the bond goes up. Bond pricing The actual price paid for the bond is known as the dirty price the dirty price is the clean price plus accrued interest. It is given as a percentage of the par value. For a bond with a clean price of 104.000 and accrued interest of 0.2500 the dirty price will be 104.250. For a par value of USD10,000,000, the the actual price paid would be 10,000,000 x 104.25% = USD10,425,000 © Andre Kurten 2022 Accrued Interest Accrued Interest day count convention •is calculated as ACT/ACT in most of the currencies. - Here the actual number of days accrued, divided by the actual days in the year for annual coupon bonds multiplied by the coupon. For a semi-annual bond it’s the coupon multiplied by actual number of days accrued, divided by the actual days in the coupon period multiplied by 2. For example, if there are 75 days accrued and the coupon period has 183 days, then the calculation would be based on 75/366 day-count. As an example, a 2% coupon has accrued interest of 2x75/366 = 0.4098 •GBP, USD and Eurobonds apply this convention. •It is unusual to find 30/360, ACT/360, or ACT/365 Accrued interest •is the interest which has accrued between the last coupon date and the settlement date of a bond transaction. •To calculate accrued interest, multiply the coupon with the accrued days and divide by the annual basis. For example, where the coupon is 5% and the accrued days are 67 with the relevant annual basis is 365, then the accrued interest will be 5 x 67/365 = 0.9718 per 100 of the par value of the bond. © Andre Kurten 2022 Accrued Interest 30/360 convention Most bonds use ACT/ACT, but where the accrued interest convention on a bond is 30/360, then it is assumed that each whole month has 30 days and a year is therefore 360 days. Example You buy a bond on the 15th April 20XX which paid its last coupon on the 15th January 20XX the deal settles on the 16th of April 20XX (value T+1 from deal date). What are the number of days used in the calculation of accrued interest where the accrued interest is calculated using 30/360 convention? Solution 15thJanuary to 15th February 30 days 15th February to 15thMarch 30 days 15th March to 15th April 30 days and 15th – 16th April 1 day Total days = 91 © Andre Kurten 2022 Discount, premium and Par Bonds A discount bond •is a bond which trades at a price less than its face value. •Therefore a bond priced at below 100 is trading at a discount. •The yield to maturity is HIGHER than the Coupon when a bond is at a discount A premium bond •is a bond which trades at a price more than its face value. •Therefore a bond priced at above 100 is trading at a premium. •The yield to maturity is LOWER than the Coupon when a bond is at a Premium A par bond • is a bond which trades at a price which is equal to the face value i.e. 100%. Bonds very seldom trade at par in the secondary market. Bonds are usually issued at par, but will trade at a premium or discount after issue. •When the yield to maturity is equal to the Coupon rate of the bond a bond is at par. © Andre Kurten 2022 Current yield on a bond The current yield on a bond must NOT be confused with the Yield to Maturity (YTM). The YTM is the interest rate at which a bond is traded in some markets and which is applied to calculate the dirty price of the bond. The current yield is a CALCULATED yield which gives the investor an idea of the return based on the coupon and the price paid for the bond. (Current yield will be higher than the coupon when the bond is trading at a discount and vice versa) The calculation of the current yield is done as follows: Bond coupon divided by the clean price of the bond multiplied by 100. Example A 7% bond with 10 years to maturity is trading at a clean price of 92. What is the current yield? Solution 7/92.00 x 100 = 7.608% or 7.61% rounded to two decimal places © Andre Kurten 2022 Bond questions 1. You buy a straight bond at a yield-to-maturity of 3.50% with a coupon of 3%. It was originally issued at par. The clean price you would expect to pay would be: A. less than par B. Par C. more than par D. depends on the bonds credit rating 2. A 10-year zero-coupon bond was issued at a yield of 1.50% which you now buy at a yield-to-maturity of 1.25% with 7 years to maturity? You would expect to pay: A. B. C. D. 100% of par More than 100% of par Less than 100% of Par Too little information to decide 3. A straight bond with a 5% coupon is bought at a dirty price of 103.725. The bond has a par value of USD10,000,000. The amount due at settlement is: A. 10,000,000 B. 10,050,000 C. 9,627,500 D. 10,372,500 4. A 2.50% bond is trading at a clean price of 105.735. What is the current yield? A. 10.574% B. 2.364 C. 2.372% D. 5.735% 5. A bond is trading at a premium. Which of the following statements is correct? A. The yield-to-maturity is higher than the coupon rate B The yield-to-maturity is equal to the coupon rate C. The yield-to-maturity is lower than the coupon rate D. The bond has a AAA rating © Andre Kurten 2022 The Repo Market Repo is short for repurchase agreement it is a type of securities financing transaction (SFT) One party lends (sells) or offers securities (usually Government bonds) in return for borrowing funds. The lender of money has a SECURED deposit, which usually attracts a lower interest rate than normal money market deposits The two main transaction types are: •All in or Classic Repo oone transaction two legs. oThis can be a fixed dated or done on a call basis referred to as open-ended. •Sell/Buy Back otwo separate deals one spot and one forward. oThis CANNOT be open-ended. © Andre Kurten 2022 The Repo structure At inception - settlement date Repo seller bond Cash Repo buyer At Maturity Repo seller Cash plus repo interest Bond Repo buyer The party providing collateral at inception is known as the repo or the repo seller the party providing cash is known as the reverse repo or repo buyer. © Andre Kurten 2022 The Repo Market General collateral (GC) repo is one where any acceptable bond can be given as collateral. A long-term GC repo is usually done as a liquidity trade (to raise or lend cash). NOTE: A short-dated GC repo is often done to fund a long bond position. Special repo is one where a specific bond is required. Special repo is quoted as basis points BP below the GC repo rate. NOTE: Special repo bonds are usually used to cover a short position in that bond. For example, if the special repo is trading at 50BP and the GC repo rate is 3.75% then special repo rate is 3.25% The lender of bonds (repo) bears the MARKET RISK on the bond during the life of the repo and the lender of cash (reverse repo) bears the CREDIT RISK during the repo. Under a classic repo there can be substitution (GC not special) of bonds, Haircut and margining during the life of the transaction © Andre Kurten 2022 Bullish Speculator A bullish speculator expects the yield of a bonds to fall (prices to rise). She buys a bond without having the cash purchase price. She does so as she is able to access the repo market to fund her obligations on her position. Purchase price Speculator Settlement T+3 bond Spot Bond Market bond Speculator Settlement T+3 Repo Market Cash Cash + Repo Interest Speculator Settlement T+10 Repo Market bond bond Speculator Settlement T+10 Sale price Spot Bond Market Goes “Long” the bond today Puts Bond out on repo today (general collateral) Repays repo cash + interest10 days from today Unwinds Long bond 7 days from today (hopefully at a profit) © Andre Kurten 2022 Bearish Speculator A bearish speculator expects the yield of a bond to rise (prices to fall). She sells a bond that she does not own. She does so as she can access the repo market to borrow the bond to meet her obligation on her position. Bond Speculator Settlement T+3 Spot Bond Goes “Short” the bond today Market Sale Price Cash Speculator Settlement T+3 Repo Market Puts cash out on reverse repo today (Special) Repo Market Receives repo cash + interest 10 days from today Spot Bond Market Covers short bond 7 days from today (hopefully at a profit) Bond Bond Speculator Settlement T+10 Cash + Repo Interest Purchase price Speculator Settlement T+10 Bond © Andre Kurten 2022 The All in or classic Repo This is an over-the-counter repo (also known as an American repo) where one party sell bonds (the repo) to another (the reverse repo) while simultaneously agreeing to repurchase them on a future date at a specified price. If you do the repo (lend bonds), you BORROW cash on the offer side of the market quote (the higher interest rate). If you do the reverse (borrow bonds), you LEND cash at the bid (the lower interest rate). The sale and repurchase price are the same except for the repo interest which is simply added to obtain the amount of money due on expiry. Therefore, a classic repo is ONE transaction with two legs. Any coupons paid during the life of the repo, if paid to the buyer by the issuer, must be paid back to the seller immediately. © Andre Kurten 2022 The All in or classic Repo The collateral is exchanged for cash at an agreed rate of interest, for a fixed period or it can be open ended An initial margin – know as a “haircut” – usually charged by the LENDER of cash (the Repo Buyer or reverse repo). The lender of cash in this instance takes collateral which exceeds the value of the amount of cash loaned. Margin calls during the life of the repo ensure the cash lender that the value of the security never falls below the current value of cash advanced. The current value of the cash is calculated as the initial cash lent plus the accrued interest to date. Margin calls can be provided either in the form of additional security or the cash equivalent by the repo seller or buyer. BOTH the REPO and the REVERSE REPO are subject to margin calls during the life of the repo. © Andre Kurten 2022 Haircut or margin on a Classic Repo Factors influencing the size of the haircut or initial margin are: •The longer the maturity the greater the chance of default •The longer the collateral has to maturity, the more sensitive it is to changes in interest rates. •The creditworthiness of the seller (provider of collateral) •The quality of the issuer of the collateral •The illiquidity of the collateral (no or very little secondary market activity) •The Lack of a legal agreement like ICMA/GMRA covering repo transactions. “Flat basis” is a repo done with no margin. NOTE: When doing a repo using treasury bills as collateral, the repo rate should be HIGHER than the treasury bill yield. © Andre Kurten 2022 Delivery under a classic repo Delivery of the securities under a classic repo needs to be considered. It can be done in one of three ways: 1. Collateral (bonds) could be delivered to the buyer for the term of the repo. This is the safest form of repo transaction. 2. The collateral can be held in custody (HIC) by the repo seller. This is the riskiest form of repo transaction. The danger under this arrangement is that the seller could use the collateral twice to raise cash. This is known as “double dipping”. 3. A custodian can be appointed to facilitate the transaction. This arrangement is subject to a legally binding agreement signed by all three parties. This is commonly referred to as a tri-party repo. Both counterparts use the same custodian or repo agent. Segregated accounts will be opened by the custodian for the express purpose of the repo transaction. This kind of repo allows comfort to the buyer as no double dipping can occur as the bonds are held as pledged in the buyers account for the term of the repo. The custodian checks the eligibility of the collateral, applies the haircut and manages margin calls and substitution of bonds where required. © Andre Kurten 2022 Sell/Buy Back Two separate bond market transactions; a sale (purchase) in the spot market and a purchase (sale) in the forward market Repo rate is not explicit, but is implied in the forward price The right to any coupon during the life of the repo accrues to the BUYER of the securities. It will be refunded to the SELLER in the buyback price. Where a coupon is paid during the life of the repo, the buy back price will be calculated as: original cash + repo interest – coupon – interest earned on the coupon The interest rate used to calculate the interest earned on the coupon is the original repo rate. Because full title passes in the spot leg from SELLER to BUYER, ISMA documentation does not apply (although most counterparties will have ICMA/GMRA agreements in place with each other) Margining with these repos is done by canceling the buy back leg and entering a trade with the new details. This is called repricing. Sell/buy backs CANNOT be open ended © Andre Kurten 2022 Repo Theory questions 1. Which of the following will tend to have the higher yield? A. Treasury bill B. Repo against Treasury bill collateral C. They have the same yield D. Cannot say 2. Which type of repo is the riskiest for the buyer? A. Delivery repo B. HIC repo C. Tri-party repo D. There is no real difference 3. Which party usually takes an initial margin in a classic repo? A. The buyer B. The seller C. Neither D. Both 4. What are the primary reasons for taking an initial margin in a classic repo? A. Counterparty risk and operational risk B. Counterparty risk and legal risk C. Collateral illiquidity and counterparty risk D. Collateral illiquidity and legal risk © Andre Kurten 2022 Calculating the “haircut” and repo rate HAIRCUT with fixed bond amount–calculate the start money •Bonds market value (collateral value) divided by (100 plus the haircut as a percentage) Example Collateral Value 995,000 offered and a haircut of 2% 995,000/102% or 995,000/1.02 = $975,490.20 cash against bond value at start of repo HAIRCUT with fixed cash amount–calculate the bond value at start •Cash amount x (100 plus the haircut as a percentage) Example -Cash $1m offered and a haircut 2% 1,000,000 x 102% or 1,000,000 x 1.02 = 1,020,000 bond value required at the start of repo REPO RATE NB: Repo rate in the exam is usually quoted in terms of cash low/high e.g., 1.75/1.80. London quotes repo rate in terms of bond high/low so 1.80/1.75 © Andre Kurten 2022 Dealing the repo rate When doing the REPO (lending or selling bonds), you are borrowing cash, so you would deal on the OFFER side of the repo rate When doing the REVERSE REPO (borrowing or buying bonds), you are lending cash, so you would deal on the BID side of the repo rate The repo done Tom/Next or overnight is 1 day. One week and spot/week are 7 days and two weeks is 14 days. You need to answer 5 questions when facing a Repo calculation question: 1. Am I doing the repo or reverse repo? 2. How long is the repo term? 3. What is the repo rate and am I borrowing or lending cash? 4. What is the collateral worth? 5. Is there a haircut? Repo rate 1.75/80 When doing the reverse Repo you deal at the bid When doing the Repo you deal at the offer © Andre Kurten 2022 Classic Repo Example FLAT BASIS REPO A bank wishes to place out USD50 million Eurodollar bonds (doing the repo). The bond has a coupon of 5,50% and matures on the 12/04/2025. The repo rate is 6.50/6.60 for 7 days. The bond collateral value is $51,633,700. By doing the repo, you are going to borrow funds at 6.60% Determine repo interest and final consideration $51,633,700 x 0.066 x 7/360 = 66,263.25 repo interest (MM convention) 51,633,700 + 66,263.25 = $51,699,963.25 final cash (Buy back price) REPO WITH HAIRCUT (using the same details as above) If there was a 2% haircut on the repo, then the start money would be different. 51,633,700/102% = $50,621,274.50 is the start money Determine the repo interest and final consideration $50,621,274.50 x 0.066 x 7/360 = 64,963.97 repo interest $50,621,274.50 + 64,963.97 = $50,686,238.47 final cash (buy back price) © Andre Kurten 2022 Repo calculation questions 1. What market value of collateral does a dealer need against USD50 million in cash in a 3-day reverse repo at a rate of 2.10% if he takes an initial margin of 2%. A. USD 52,000,000 B. USD 51,000,000 C. USD 50,000,000 D. USD 49,000,000 2. The spot/week repo rate for the 4.25% DSL 2025 IS QUOTED TO YOU AT 2.35-38%. You buy bonds with a market value of EUR 3,295,500 through a sell/buy-back. What is the buyback price? A. EUR 3,297,004.19 B. EUR 3,297,005.86 C. EUR 3,297,025.09 D. EUR 3,296,985.23 3. Tom/next repo rates are quoted 1.75%/1.80%. You sell EUR10, 000,000 3.80% German Bunds with a market value of 11,260,000. What is the repurchase price at maturity? A. 11,261,189 B. 11,260,000 C. 11,260,563 D. 11,260,547.36 4. The tom/next GC repo rate for German government bonds is quoted to you at 1.75-80%. As collateral, you sell EUR 10 million nominal of the 5.25% bund July 2025, which is worth EUR 11.260,000. If you have to give an initial margin of 2%, the Repurchase Price: A. EUR 11,035,336.41 B. EUR 11,035,351.74 C. EUR 11,039,752.32 D. EUR 11,039,767.65 © Andre Kurten 2022 Topic Basket 4 Fixed Income, Interest Rate, Currency and Commodity Derivatives Covered in Tutorial 4 © Andre Kurten 2022 Section Objectives Overall Objectives: The overall objective of this topic is for candidates to understand how derivatives work and their function in financial markets. Candidates will be able to describe the mechanics of currency derivatives, how to use them and the fundamentals of currency options. Candidates will be able to identify basic currency option products and understand their purpose. Candidates will be able to describe the mechanics of interest rate derivatives, how to use them and the fundamentals of interest rate options. Candidates will be able to identify basic interest rate option products and understand their purpose. The candidates need to be able to perform basic calculations referring to the derivatives products included in the Syllabus. • 14 questions comprising 8 theory and 6 calculation questions – 7 minimum correct answers © Andre Kurten 2022 Definition Derivatives A derivative is a contract traded for a date other than the regular spot date where the value of such a contract is derived from the value of the underlying asset or instrument. Hedging Hedging is undertaking a trade to reduce the risk on an existing position. For example, an import can enter into an FEC to reduce the risk of an adverse move in the exchange rate. Speculation Gearing or leverage is entering a trade which has a larger nominal value than the required cash to secure a trade. For example, you can enter a trade on USD1m by putting down USD 10,000 which is a gearing or leverage ratio of 100:1. Simulation Creating a synthetic portfolio Arbitrage To take advantage of mispricing between markets to make risk free profits. For example, Trading FRAs against STIR futures to take advantage of mispricing. © Andre Kurten 2022 Forward Rate Agreement Defined A FRA is an agreement between two parties, a buyer and a seller that sets (fixes) the level of an interest rate for a specific time in the future on a notional value. For example, a 3-month period starting 3 months from now. This period would be known as a 3x6 period. •In 3 months time the FRA rate will be compared to the 3-month market benchmark such as EURIBOR or SOFR, and •the DIFFERENCE will be settled based on the notional principal. •FRAs are therefore referred to as CFDs (contracts for difference). •FRAs are the ideal short-term derivative to hedge mismatches in the money market funding book of a bank. •FRA prices are derived using the forward forward rate pricing model described in the Rates section. •FRAs are not negotiable © Andre Kurten 2022 FRA - Terminology Contract amount: The Notional Principal Amount e.g. R50m used in the settlement calculation Contract currency: The currency in which the contract amount is denominated Contract rate: The fixed interest rate agreed under the FRA agreement Dealing (transaction) date: The date on which the FRA deal is done, and the FRA rate is agreed Fixing date: The date when the reference rate is determined (could be different to the settlement date) Settlement (value) date: The date on which the notional borrowing or lending commences and the date on which settlement on the FRA is made Maturity date: The date on which the notional borrowing or lending matures Forward period: The number of days between the settlement and the maturity date of the FRA Reference rate: The market-based interest rate used on the fixing date to determine the settlement amount payable/receivable e.g. 3-month SOFR Settlement amount: The amount paid by one party to the other on the settlement date of the agreement, based on the difference between the contract rate and the reference rate, calculated on the notional amount of the FRA. Interest is usually paid in arrears, but the settlement on the FRA is paid at the start of the interest period (settlement date on the FRA). The settlement is therefore discounted, or net present valued by using LIBOR fixing rate. © Andre Kurten 2022 FRA - Diagram Contract period prior to fixing Deal Date – when FRA rate is agreed Fixing Date – when benchmark is determined Forward period (notional borrowing or lending period) Settlement Date – Maturity Date – when net payment nothing is made happens here! NOTE: Fixing and settlement are on the SAME DAY in domestic FRA markets e.g. GBP FRAs in London fix and settle on the SAME DAY. Foreign currency FRAs settle T+2 e.g. USD FRAs in London fix TWO working days before settlement occurs. © Andre Kurten 2022 Buying or Selling an FRA The Buyer of the FRA •The buyer of an FRA is a potential future borrower, or one with a floating rate loan, and exposed to interest rates rising (short cash in the forward period) •Buying the FRA is like borrowing money at a fixed rate for a future period. When you buy an FRA you are synthetically long cash for the far date and short the same amount of cash for the near date. •If at fixing the Benchmark rate is ABOVE the FRA rate, the buyer receives the difference and if the Benchmark rate is BELOW the FRA rate the buyer pays the seller. The Seller of the FRA •The seller of an FRA is a potential future investor, or has an investment linked to a floating rate, and is exposed to rates falling (long cash in the forward period) •Selling the FRA is like lending money at a fixed rate for a future period. When you sell an FRA you are synthetically short cash for the far date and long the same amount of cash for the near date. •If at fixing the Benchmark rate is BELOW the FRA rate, the seller receives the difference and if the Benchmark rate is ABOVE the FRA rate the seller pays the buyer. © Andre Kurten 2022 Buying an FRA to hedge Borrower has a USD 50m floating rate loan priced at 3-month SOFR. She thinks rates will rise in the next three months. Market rates today Borrows and Fixes FRA and Borrowing 3-mth SOFR 5.75% buys FRA borrows again matures 3X6 FRA 6.00% 3x6 FRA period Transactions today Borrows at 5.75% FOR 90 days t 3 Buys 3x6 FRA at 6.00% 3 months time 2 scenarios 3-month SOFR fixes at 6.25% or 5.75% Scenario 1 Repays loan and borrows 50m at current SOFR 6.25% SOFR is above FRA rate so receives difference 0.25% Therefore, effective cost of funding 6.00% for 3 months Scenario 2 Repays loan and borrows 50m at current SOFR 5.75% SOFR is below FRA rate so pays difference 0.25% Therefore, effective cost of funding 6.00% for 3 months NOTE: IRRESPECTIVE of SOFR rate borrowing cost is 6.00% 6 © Andre Kurten 2022 Interest rate risk due to funding mismatch in the money market book Borrow (go long) cash for 3 Repay cash plus interest months and lend (go short) the and borrow that amount for same amount for 6 months the next three months Receive 6-month cash plus interest back on the lending and repay the last 3-month borrowing Creates a short cash 3x6 position - you are over lent 3 t A 3-month Liability 6 A 6-month asset In this scenario, because you have over lent (have a 3-month asset) in the 3x6, you need to borrow for 3 months in 3 months time. You are exposed to interest rates RISING. To hedge, you would BUY a 3x6 FRA today. Repay the cash plus interest on the 6-month borrowing and receive the last 3 month lending Creates a long cash 3x6 position - -you are over borrowed Lend (go short) cash for 3 Receive cash plus interest months and borrow (go long) the and lend that amount for same amount for 6 months the next three months t A 3-month asset A 6-month liability 3 6 In this scenario, because you have over borrowed (have a 3-month liability) in the 3x6, you need to lend for 3 months in 3 months time. You are exposed to interest rates FALLING. To hedge, you would SELL a 3x6 FRA today. © Andre Kurten 2022 Selling an FRA to hedge A large bank needs to lend USD 100m for 6 months in 6 months time linked to SOFR. They think interest rates will fall in the next 6 months. They want to lock in the investment rate for that period today. Sells FRA Fixes FRA and Investment FRA rate today invests cash matures 6X12 FRA 4.25% Transactions today Sells 6x12 FRA at 4.25% 6x12 FRA period t 6 12 6 months time 2 scenarios 6-month SOFR fixes at 3.75% or 4.50% Scenario 1 Invests 100m at current 6-month SOFR 3.75% SOFR is below FRA rate, so they receive the difference 0.50% Effective return on investment is 4.25% for 6 months (3.75 + 0.50) Scenario 2 Invests 100m at current 6-month LIBOR 4.50% SOFR is above FRA rate, so they pay the difference 0.25% Effective return on investment is 4.25% for 6 months (4.50 – 0.25) NOTE: IRRESPECTIVE of SOFR rate their return is 4.25% © Andre Kurten 2022 FRA theory questions 1. In order to hedge a 6x12 forward-forward loan that you have made, you could; A. Buy a 6x12 FRA B. Buy a strip of money market futures if contracts were available for the period C. Receive fixed on a 1-year annual/6s interest rate swap D. Take a 12-month deposit 2. Today is Monday, 8th December. You sell a 9x12 FRA for value Thursday,10th September next year. On what date is the settlement amount due to be paid or received (assuming that there are no holidays)? A. 8th September next year B. 10th September next year C. 8th December next year D. 10th December next year 3. You have made a forward-forward loan for 3 months starting in 6 months time. Which of the following would be the best hedge for this position? A. Borrow money for 3 months and lend the equivalent amount for 6 months B. Buy a 3X6 FRA in an amount equal to the loan notional value C. Buy the near interest rate futures contracts in an equivalent notional of the loan D. Buy a 6X9 FRA in an amount equal to the loan notional value 4. In the international market, a FRA in USD is usually settled with reference to: A. SOFR B. Fed funds C. BBA LIBOR D. EURIBOR © Andre Kurten 2022 Calculation of Settlement Amount Settlement Amount d iL - iF N DB d 1 iL DB Where: iL iF N d DB = = = = = benchmark rate at fixiing contract (FRA) rate notional principal amount actual number of days in the forward period day count convention (e.g. 360 for USD, 365 for GBP) © Andre Kurten 2022 Calculation of Settlement Amount Example •FRA USD 50million (B or day base is 360) •FRA rate 5.375% •3-month USD SOFR Fixed at 6.25% •FRA period 90 days 90 50,000,000 (0.0625 0.05375) 360 90 1 0 . 0625 360 109,375 1.015625 107,692.31 paid by FRA seller to buyer © Andre Kurten 2022 FRAs application and settlement questions 1. You have borrowed at 3-month SOFR+50BP. SOFR for the loan will be re-fixed in exactly one month. The market is quoting: 1x3 USD FRA 0.42-45% 1x4 USD FRA 0.54-58% 1x5 USD FRA 0.57-62% To hedge the next SOFR fixing, you should: A. Sell a 1x3 FRA at 0.42% B. Buy a 1x3 FRA at 0.45% C. Buy a 1x4 FRA at 0.58% D. Sell a 1x4 FRA at 0.54% 2. You have taken a position on future interest rates by buying a 1x4 (89-day) EUR 150 million FRA at 3.15%. If EURIBOR for the contract period turns out to be 3.27%, what is the settlement amount, and do you pay or receive? A. you pay EUR 44,143.14 B. you receive EUR 44,143.14 C. you pay EUR 44,500.00 D. you receive EUR 44,500.00 3. You have taken a position on future interest rates by buying a 6x12 (183-day) EUR 75,000,000.00 FRA at 0.57%. If EURIBOR for the contract period turns out to be 0.71%, what is the settlement amount, and do you pay or receive? A. You pay EUR 52,457.10 B. You receive EUR 52,457.10 C. You receive EUR 53,375.00 D. You receive EUR 53,183.05 © Andre Kurten 2022 Short-Term Interest Rate Futures The Definition of a future contract A futures contract is a standardised contract between two parties, to exchange a standard quantity of a specified underlying asset on a predetermined future date at a price agreed today, traded on an organised Exchange guaranteed by the exchange Buying futures you are long and selling futures you are short Futures prices should converge towards the spot price as the contract moves towards the maturity. Any divergence between the futures price and the spot is referred to as BASIS RISK. Futures contracts are more secure than trading OTC products like FRAs because of the reduced credit risk. However, unlike FRAs, STIR futures are quoted as a PRICE rather than an interest rate The STIR price is arrived at by deducting the equivalent interest rate from 100, so for example, an interest rate of 3,75% as a futures price will be 100–3.75=96.25. Futures prices can be quoted to 3 decimal places 96.255 100 – 96.255 = 3.745% is the equivalent implied forward forward rate © Andre Kurten 2022 New Short-Term Interest Rate Futures Specifications - 1 Specifications ICE 1-Month SONIA ICE 3-Month SONIA ICE 3-Month SARON Contract size £2,500*Rate Index (3,000,000) Delivery Months A maximum of 24 consecutive months will be available for trading £2,500*Rate Index (1,000,000) 3rd Wednesday of March, June September and December such that 25 months are available for trading CHF 2,500*Rate Index (1,000,000) 3rd Wednesday of March, June September and December such that 16 delivery months are available for trading 1 tick 0.01 value £25 (3,000,000 x 0.01% x1/12) £25 (1,000,000 x 0.01% x3/12) CHF 25 (1,000,000 x 0.01% x3/12) Minimum Tick 0.0025 (£6.25) for front delivery month 0.005 (£12.50) for all other delivery Months 100 minus the numerical value of the rate of interest 0.0025 (CHF 6.25) for front delivery month 0.005 (CHF 12.50) for all other delivery Months 100 minus the numerical value of the rate of interest One business day prior to the third Wednesday at 18:00 London time SONIA One business day prior to the third Wednesday at 18:00 London time SARON Quotation 0.0025 (£6.25) for front delivery month 0.005 (£12.50) for all other delivery Months 100 minus the numerical value of the rate of interest Last trading day The last business day of the contract month at 18:00 London time Market index at SONIA expiry (EDSP) © Andre Kurten 2022 New Short-Term Interest Rate Futures Specifications - 2 Specifications Contract size ICE 3-Month SOFR $10,000*Rate Index (4,000,000) Delivery Months March, June, September , and December such that a maximum of 24 delivery months will be available for trading CME 3-Month SOFR $2,500*Rate Index (1,000,000) 3rd Wednesday of March, June September and December with the nearest 39 consecutive quarters available for trading CME 1-Month SOFR $2,500*Rate Index (5,000,000) 1 tick 0.01 value $100(4mio x 0.01% x 3/12) $25(1mio x 0.01% x 3/12) $41.67(5mio x 0.01% x 1/12) Minimum Tick 0.0025 ($25) Contracts with 4 months or less until termination 0.0025 ($6.25) 0.05 ($12.50)for all other months 0.0025 ($10.4175) for the nearest month 0.05 ($20.835) for all other months Quotation 100 minus the numerical value of the rate of interest 100 minus the numerical value of the rate of interest 100 minus the numerical value of the rate of interest Last trading day The last business day prior to the 3rd Wednesday of the next quarterly delivery month. Trading will cease at 17.00 New York time Market index at expiry (EDSP) SOFR Nearest 13 consecutive months will be available for trading The last business day prior The last business day of the to the 3rd Wednesday of the contract month at 17.00 New York time next quarterly delivery month. Trading will cease at 17.00 New York time SOFR SOFR © Andre Kurten 2022 New Short-Term Interest Rate Futures Specifications - 3 Specifications ICE 3-Month EURIBOR Contract size €2,500*Rate Index (3,000,000) €2,500*Rate Index (1,000,000) 3rd Wednesday of March, A maximum of 24 consecutive months will be available for trading June September and December and 4 serial months, such that 28 delivery months are available for trading and the nearest 6 months being consecutive calendar months Delivery Months ICE 1-Month Euro Overnight ICE 1-Month SOFR Rate Index 1 tick 0.01 value €25 (1mio x 0.01% x 3/12) Minimum Tick 0.005 (€12.50) for all delivery 0.0025 (€6.25) for front delivery Months month 0.005 (€12.50) for all other delivery Months 100 minus the numerical 100 minus the numerical value of value of the rate of interest the rate of interest Two business days prior to The last business of the calendar month the third Wednesday at 10.00am EMMI EURIBOR €STR Quotation Last trading day Market index at expiry (EDSP) €25 (3mio x 0.01% x 1/12) $10,000*Rate Index (12,000,000) A maximum of 24 consecutive months will be available for trading $100 (12mio x 0.01% x 1/12) 0.0025 ($25) for the nearest month 100 minus the numerical value of the rate of interest The last business day of the contract month at 17.00 New York time SOFR PLEASE NOTE Trading hours for ICE SOFR Futures New York: 7.45 pm – 5pm or 19:45 – 17:00 London 12.45am – 10.00pm or 00:45 – 22:00 © Andre Kurten 2022 New Short-Term Interest Rate Futures Specifications - 4 Specifications JBA EUROYEN TIBOR Trading Unit Y100,000,000 Delivery Months 20 quarterly months and 2 serial months Serial months are months other than March, June, September and December. Y2,500 (100mio x 0.01% x 3/12) 1 tick 0.01 value Minimum Tick 0.005 (Y1,250) for all delivery Months Quotation 100 minus the numerical value of the rate of interest Last trading day Two business days prior to the third Wednesday Market index at expiry (EDSP) Three-month Euroyen TIBOR PLEASE NOTE Although USD LIBOR 3-month fixings will continue until the 30th June 2023, The ACI board of education has decided to no longer include the 3-Month Eurodollar contracts in the exam. As a result, the questions which were previously in the database, will be removed. All the questions included in the exam from the 1st March 2022 will be based on the above futures contract specifications. © Andre Kurten 2022 Futures theory questions 1. A customer sells a 3-Month SARON futures contact. Which of the following risks could he be trying to hedge? A. An increase in forward USD/CHF B. Falling CHF interest rates C. A decrease in forward USD/CHF D. Rising CHF interest rates 2. Which of the following is true? A. The ICE 1-month SOFR futures contract has a tick value of USD 100 and a face value of USD 12,000,000 B. The CME 1-month SOFR futures contract has a tick value of USD 41.67 and a face value of USD 5,000,000 C. The CME 3-month SOFR futures contract has a tick value of USD 25 and a face value of USD 1,000,000 D. All the above are true 3. What the minimum tick values for the 3-month SONIA and 3-month EURIBOR futures respectively? A. 0.0025 (£6.25) and 0.005 (€ 12.50) B. 0.005 (£12.50) and 0.0025 (€ 6.25) C. 0.01 (£25) and 0.0025 (€ 6.25) D. 0.05 (£12.50) and 0.01 (€25) © Andre Kurten 2022 Margining and settlement Initial Margin (determined by the exchange) is the amount that is put up to open a futures position on an exchange. This is held by the exchange and only refunded when the contract expires or is closed out. This initial margin is usually sufficient to cover a single day loss. It is NOT used to pay variation margin. Variation margin is payable (receivable) daily in cash based on the contracts revaluation through a process called marking-to-market (M-T-M). The mark-to-market price or DSP (daily settlement price) is usually determined by a volume-weighted average price calculated using prices (usually the last 5 trades) traded during a period prior to the close of the trading day. Settlement and trading is guaranteed by the exchange and margins are usually payable between 10h00 and 12h00 on the day following the trade or mark-to-market. © Andre Kurten 2022 Calculating variation Margin As indicated in the previous slide, the variation margin is calculated daily based on the current rate on your position against the daily settlement price. Your margin account will either be debited (you pay) or credited (you receive) with the variation margin amount in the currency of the contract that you have traded. Lets look at an example You go long 20 CME 3-Month SOFR contracts at 98.35. The end of the day the M-T-M 98.455 Variation margin is calculated as 98.455-98.35 = 0.105 which is 10.5 ticks in your favour because you are long and the M-T-M rate is higher. Ticks x contracts x tick value = margin call due (or payable) So 10.5 x 20 x 25 = USD 5,250 credit to your margin account (you receive). You are now long 20 contracts at 98.455 The next day the M-T-M is 98.28 so 98.28-98.455 = -0.175 which is 17.5 ticks against you because you are long and the M-T-M is lower. 17.5 x 20 x 25 = USD 8,750 debit to your margin account (you pay). After 2 days you will now be long 20 contracts at 98.28. The effect on your margin account to date has been a net debit of USD3,500 The person who sold to you would have exact opposite effect. So futures trading is often referred to as a ‘zero-sum game’ © Andre Kurten 2022 Margin Call Examples for new STIR futures contracts -1 One ICE 3-month SONIA futures contract is traded at 98.50 and at the end of the day the mark-to-market is 98.55 (tick value on the 3-month SONIA future is £25 unlike the old short sterling future which was £12.50) 98.55 – 98.50 = 5 ticks 1 x 5 x 25 =£125 paid by the seller to the buyer because the MTM rate is higher than the traded price. One CME 3-month SOFR futures contract is traded at 98.75 and at the end of the day the mark-to-market is 98.85 98.85 – 98.75 = 0.10 which is 10 ticks 1 x 10 x 25 =$250 paid by the seller to the buyer because the MTM rate is higher than the traded price. One ICE 3-month SOFR futures contract is traded at 98.75 and at the end of the day the mark-to-market is 98.85 98.85 – 98.75 = 0.10 which is 10 ticks 1 x 10 x 100 =$1,000 paid by the seller to the buyer because the MTM rate is higher than the traded price. NOTE: the full tick value of the CME 3-Month SOFR future is $25, because each contract is USD 1,000,000 nominal The full tick value of the ICE 3-month SOFR future is $100 because each contract is 4,000,000 nominal! © Andre Kurten 2022 Margin Call Examples for new STIR futures contracts -2 Ten ICE 1-month SONIA futures contract is traded at 98.70 and at the end of the day the mark-to-market is 98.65 (tick value on the 1-month ICE SONIA future is £25 based on a nominal unlike the old short sterling future which was £12.50) So, 98.65 – 98.70 = - 5 ticks 10 x 5 x 25 =£1250 paid by the buyer to the seller because the MTM rate is lower than the traded price. Ten CME 1-month SOFR futures contract is traded at 99.50 and at the end of the day the mark-to-market is 99.455. 99.445 – 99.50 = -0.055 which is equal to 5.5 ticks 10 x 5.5 x 41.67 =$2,291.85 paid by the buyer to the seller because the MTM rate is lower than the traded price. Ten ICE 1-month SOFR futures contract is traded at 99.50 and at the end of the day the mark-to-market is 99.455 99.445 – 99.50 = -0.055 which is equal to 5.5 ticks 10 x 5.5 x 100 =$5,500 paid by the buyer to the seller because the MTM rate is lower than the traded price. NOTE: the full tick value of the CME 1-Month SOFR future is $41.67, because each contract is USD 5,000,000 nominal. The full tick value of the ICE 1month SOFR future is $100 because each contract is 12,000,000 nominal! © Andre Kurten 2022 Futures calculation questions 1. What is the variation margin due on 10 ICE 3-Month SONIA futures contracts bought at 97.255 if the closing rate on the same day is 97.45? A. you must pay GBP 2,437.50 B. you will receive GBP 2,437.50 C. you must pay GBP 4,875 D. you will receive GBP 4,875 2. You are short of 6 June CME 3-Month SOFR futures contracts at 99.50. Yesterday, the closing price was 99.35. Today's closing price is 99.105. What variation margin will be due? A. You will have to pay USD 5,925.00 B. You will receive USD 5,925.00 C. You will have to pay USD 3,675.00 D. You will receive USD 3,675.00 3. You are short of 6 June CME 3-Month SOFR futures contracts at 99.50. Yesterday, the closing price was 99.35. Today’s closing price is 99.105. What has been the net effect on your margin account to date? A. USD 2,250.00 debit B. USD 5,925.00 credit C. USD 3,675.00 credit D. USD 3,675.00 debit © Andre Kurten 2022 STIR Futures vs FRAs FUTURES Buy futures if you believe rates will FALL Sell futures if you believe rates will RISE FRAs Sell FRAs if you believe rates will FALL Buy FRAs if you believe rates will RISE Note: Buying FRAs is the same as selling futures Selling FRAs is the same as buying futures SO To hedge a long FRA position BUY futures To hedge a short FRA position SELL futures THIS SLIDE IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER!!!! © Andre Kurten 2022 FRAs vs Futures questions 1. You have a short position of 50 SOFR futures contracts. You can hedge your position by: A. Selling a FRA for a similar notional amount B. Buying a FRA for a similar notional amount C. Selling a call option on the contract D. Selling a put option on the contract 2. How would a corporate hedge the interest rate risk on floating-rate borrowing? A. Sell interest rate caps B. Sell futures C. Sell FRAs D. Buy futures 3. If a dealer needs to hedge an over-lent 3x6 position against IMM dates for which the FRA is quoted 1.30-1.34% and futures at 98.64 - 98.69, which would be cheapest for him (ignoring margin costs on futures positions) to cover his gap? A. FRA B. Futures C. No difference D. Too little information to decide 4. You sold a 4x7 FRA in November; you hedge this position using futures. What have you done? A. bought 3-month Dec futures B. Sold 3-month Dec futures C. Sold 3-month March futures D. Bought 3-month March futures © Andre Kurten 2022 Interest Rate Swaps - IRSs An interest rate swap (IRS) can be defined as an exchange of one set of cash flows for another based on: •a notional principal amount, or •an exchange for differences on a given set of cash flows. The concept of a basic IRS is very similar to that of an FRA. •The difference is that the FRA is applied to a single period cash flow, and •a swap is applied to cash flows over a longer period of time. The important concept to remember is that the buyer of an IRS (also known as the Fixed rate payer) is protected against rising interest rates and the seller (the Fixed Rate receiver) is protected against declining interest rates. © Andre Kurten 2022 Interest Rate Swaps Structures Plain vanilla swap •This is a fixed for floating rate swap with a fixed notional value for the life of the swap. This is by far the most common IRS done. Vanilla or coupon swaps can be: oA liability swap - this swap changes the way you pay interest on a bond or loan oAn Asset swap - this swap changes the way you receive interest on a bond or investment Accreting swap - A swap, which has a notional value that increases over the life of the swap. Amortizing swap - A swap, which has a notional value that decreases over the life of the swap. Rollercoaster swap - A swap, which has a notional value that increases and decreases during the life of the swap. Basis swap – A swap where one floating rate is swapped for another floating rate. An example would be a 6-month SOFR against 3-month SOFR swap. © Andre Kurten 2022 The Swap Mechanism “A” PAYS fixed to “B” PARTY B PARTY A “A” RECEIVES floating from “B” The rates exchanged can be a fixed rate for a floating rate or floating for floating rate. The counterparties will only exchange the difference between the rates based on a Notional Principal amount There will always be a start date, expiry date, fixing dates, and settlement dates agreed on the swap Day count convention is calendar rolls modified following CRMF © Andre Kurten 2022 Liability Swap – an example PAYS 6.50% fixed to SB for 3 years CASH Bond Market Borrower PAYS 3-mth SOFR + 75 BP Swap Bank RECEIVES 3-mth SOFR The borrower has issued a FRN for 3 years at a rate of 3-month SOFR plus 75 BP. They want to pay fixed on the loan rather than floating. The credit spread on the FRN cannot be hedged as it reflects the credit worthiness of the issuer. Without changing its funding structure, the borrower has gone from floating to fixed using the IRS market The borrower has effectively fixed their funding cost at 7.25% p.a. paid quarterly for 3 years. The borrower has effectively created a synthetic fixed rate bond using the IRS Because of the liquidity in the market, the borrower can restructure their hedge at any time should their view on interest rates change. © Andre Kurten 2022 Vanilla IRS – Application Bank A PAYS fixed to SB CASH Depositors Bank A Swap Bank Bank A PAYS daily call Bank A RECEIVES 3-month LIBOR Fixed Rate CASH Bond Market Bank A is naturally a buyer of government bonds to meet its statutory requirements. Bonds pay a fixed return. In a rising interest rate environment, this could impact the banks returns. Bank A can switch the fixed return on the bonds to a floating return by doing the vanilla IRS. They have created a synthetic floating rate bond. Effectively it is now running the basis risk between 3-month LIBOR and the daily call on its funding book. © Andre Kurten 2022 Coupon or Plain Vanilla Swaps Over 75% of all swaps are plain vanilla Fixed rate vs. floating rate cash flows Notional Principal amount never exchanged Principal is constant for the life of the swap Reference index - EURIBOR, SOFR, etc. 3Month is the most common benchmark Swaps subject to ISDA documentation. ISDA = International Swap and Derivatives Association Fixing in advance with Settlement in arrears Settlement is done on a netting basis which reduces the counterparty risk Payer buys the swap and pays fixed and receives floating. Receiver sells the swap and receives fixed and pays floating. Coupon swaps are priced and quoted as a spread over the government bond yield curve © Andre Kurten 2022 Settlement calculation 2-year Plain vanilla IRS fixed against 6-month SOFR 0 6 Start date First fixing Second fixing Settlement of first fixing 12 Third fixing Settlement of second fixing 18 Fourth fixing Settlement of third fixing 24 Settlement of fourth fixing Swap matures •The swap has a notional principal of USD 100 million •The fixed rate is 2.75% on the swap •The first 6–month SOFR fix is 2.50% done on the start date of the swap •i.e. at 0 on the timeline above, the amount to be paid on second fixing is calculated as follows: o100,000,000 x (0.0275-0.0250) x 180/360 = $125,000 paid by the buyer (fixed rate payer) to the seller (floating rate payer) on the second fixing date. •This process is repeated over the life of the IRS © Andre Kurten 2022 Overnight Index Swap (OIS) an OIS is a fixed/floating interest rate swap The floating leg is a daily overnight or tom/next reference rate The floating leg interest is compounded daily the interest difference is exchanged as a single amount at maturity of the swap settlement is made net with no exchange of principal Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA) is used for GBP OISs Euro Short-Term Rate (€STR) used for EUR OISs Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) used for USD OISs or the Effective Fed Funds Rate (EFFR) Swiss Average Rate Overnight (SARON) used for CHF OISs. Tokyo Overnight Rate (TONA) used for JPY OISs © Andre Kurten 2022 Cross Currency Interest Rate Swap Differs from a normal IRS in that there is an exchange of principal and the interest rates swapped are in TWO DIFFERENT CURRENCIES. This exchange of principal can be done at the start of the swap, but there MUST ALWAYS be an exchange of principal at the end of the swap. The spot rate used for the principal exchange at expiry of the CIRS is ALWAYS the same as the spot which was prevailing at inception (and which may have been used at inception). These swaps can be floating for floating and are referred to as a basis swap and are the most common currency swap. They can also be fixed for floating They are the ONLY swap which can offer fixed for fixed. These swaps are used primarily to hedge long term Foreign Exchange exposure. © Andre Kurten 2022 Interest Rate Swap questions -1 1. You are paying 5% per annum paid semi-annually and receiving 6-month SOFR on USD 10 million interest rate swap with exactly two years maturity. 6-month SOFR for the next payment date is fixed today at 4.95%. You expect 6-month SOFR in 6 months to fix at 5.25%, and in 12 months a 5.35% and in 18 months at 5.40%. What do you expect the net settlement amounts to be over the next 2 years? Assume 30-day months A. Pay 250, receive 1,250, receive 1,750, receive 2,000 B. Receive 250,pay 1,250, pay 1,750 pay 2,000 C. Pay 2,500, receive 12,500 receive 17,500, receive 20,000 D. Receive 2,500, pay 12,500, pay 17,500, pay 20,000 2. You are paying 5% per annum paid semi-annually and receiving 6-month SOFR on a USD 10 million interest rate swap with exactly two years to maturity. 6-Month SOFR for the next payment date is fixed today at 4.95%. How would you hedge the swap using FRA’s A. Buy a strip of 0x6, 6x12, 12x18 and 18x24 FRA’s B. Sell a strip of 0x6, 6x12, 12x18 and 18x24 FRA’s C. Buy a strip of 6x12, 12x18 and 18x24 FRA’s D. Sell a strip of 6x12, 12x18 and 18x24 FRA’s 3. If you funded your fixed-income investment portfolio with short-term deposits, how would you hedge your interest rate exposure with interest rate swaps? A. Pay fixed and receive floating through swaps for the term of the portfolio B. Pay floating and receive fixed through swaps for the term of the portfolio C. You cannot: the maturity of the swaps would be longer than that of the deposits D. You should not: there would be too much basis risk © Andre Kurten 2022 Definition of an Option An option is a contract that gives the holder (or buyer) of the option the right, but not the obligation to buy (or sell) a specified quantity and quality of a certain asset within a specified period or on a specific date, at a price agreed when the contract was entered into. For this right, the buyer pays a premium and the seller is obliged to honour the contract if called on to do so by the holder. © Andre Kurten 2022 Types of Option Contracts A Call option •gives the holder the right but not the obligation to buy the underlying asset at some time in the future. A Put option •gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at some time in the future. NOTE: Options can either be: •American - exercisable at any time up to expiry, or •European -exercisable only at expiry. •Options can also be styled Asian or Bermudan (see workbook for definition) © Andre Kurten 2022 Options Characteristics The premium of an option is payable when the option is traded. •For currency options, the premium is payable value spot. •For caps and floors, the premium can be paid at the start or over the life of the option. The exercise price of the option is known as the STRIKE price. When buying options, the most you can lose is the premium. NOTE: The CREDIT RISK on a long option position can be GREATER than the premium paid as the seller can default on exercise date and any unrealised profit will be lost. Selling options carries far greater risk than buying options. Only options which are in-the-money will be exercised at expiry Out-the-money options expire worthless © Andre Kurten 2022 Valuing Options An option will be more expensive the longer the time to expiry and/or the higher volatility implied in the price, the more expensive the option is When you sell options, you are described as being short the option. The most you can earn when writing or selling options is the premium you charge. When you buy options, you are described as being long the option. The most you can lose when buying options is the premium you pay. Exchange traded options are exercised automatically by the exchange at expiry if they are in-the-money. Options are normally only exercised if they have intrinsic value at expiry. The HOLDER of an option and not the writer will exercise the option at expiry. © Andre Kurten 2022 Intrinsic Value and Time Value The value of an option is the premium which someone is prepared to pay for the option. Intrinsic value •represents the money you would make between the exercise price and the market price if you were to exercise the option immediately. Only in-the-money options have intrinsic value. •Intrinsic value can only be POSITIVE. Time value •reflects the amount of premium in excess of the intrinsic value that someone would be prepared to pay in the hope that the option will be worth exercising before it expires Option status Call option Put option In-the-money Spot price > strike price Spot price < strike price At-the-money Spot price = strike price Spot price = strike price Out-the-money Spot price < strike price Spot price > strike price Calls will only be exercised if the spot price is above the strike at expiry Puts will only be exercised if the spot price is below the strike at expiry © Andre Kurten 2022 Pricing Option Contracts The further out-of-the-money the exercise price, the cheaper the option The longer the time to expiry, the more expensive the option is The fair value price of an option is dependent on: •the strike price •the term of the option •the underlying asset price (spot) •the prevailing risk-free interest rate •the volatility of the underlying asset price (an option premium is a positive function of implied volatility) The pricing model used to price currency options is usually based on the Black and Scholes options pricing model. Currency options we normally use Garman Kohlhagen Model © Andre Kurten 2022 Option premium questions 1. Consider that you setup the following 6-month trading strategy with the following positions: a. b. c. d. You buy a USD Call/CHF Put, strike 1.0500 premium of 45 CHF pips You sell a USD Put/CHF Call, strike 0.9500 premium of 40 CHF pips With USD/CHF Spot at expiry at 1.0000, what could be the maximum positive result, in CHF pips, that can be achieved by this strategy? You pay 5 CHF pips You pay 85 CHF pips You receive 5 CHF pips You receive 40 CHF pips 2. Consider that you set up the following trading strategy for 2 years with the following positions: You sell a cap on 3-month GBP SONIA strike 1.00% with quarterly observations in advance premium of 0.25% of the notional You sell a floor on 3-month GBP SONIA strike 0.25% with quarterly observations in advance premium of 0.35% of the notional What could be the maximum positive result, in % of Notional, that can be achieved by this strategy? a. You receive 0.60% of the notional b. You receive 0.25% of the notional c. You pay 0.65% of the notional d. You receive 0.35% of the notional © Andre Kurten 2022 Valuing Options Call values Put values when Rise Fall Price of underlying rise Fall Rise Price of underlying fall Rise Rise Volatility rises Fall Fall Volatility falls Fall Fall Time to expiry reduces Rise marginally Fall marginally Interest rates rise Fall marginally Rise marginally Interest rates fall © Andre Kurten 2022 Option Contract Expiry Profiles Profit LONG CALL Profit SHORT CALL Premium B 0 Asset price Premium LONG CALL Limited risk of loss with unlimited opportunity for gain B 0 E Loss Asset price E Loss E = exercise price B = breakeven SHORT CALL Unlimited risk of loss with limited opportunity for gain © Andre Kurten 2022 Option Contract Expiry Profiles LONG PUT Profit E 0 Premium Asset price 0 B LONG PUT Limited risk of loss with significant potential for gain (between breakeven and zero) B E Premium Loss SHORT PUT Profit Asset price Loss E = exercise price B = breakeven SHORT PUT Limited potential for gain with significant risk of loss (between breakeven and zero) © Andre Kurten 2022 Option Characteristics questions-1 1. An option contract that gives the buyer the right to exercise the option at several distinct points during its life is called: A. European-style option B. American-style option C. Bermudan option D. Asian option 2. The seller of a call option has: A. Substantial opportunity for gain and limited risk of loss B. Substantial risk of loss and substantial opportunity for gain C. Limited risk of loss and limited opportunity for gain D. Substantial risk of loss and limited opportunity for gain 3. A put option is ‘out-of-the-money’ if: A. Its strike price is higher than the current market price of the underlying commodity B. If the spot price of the underlying commodity is higher than the strike price of the option C. Its strike price is equal to the spot price of the underlying commodity D. If the spot price of the underlying commodity is lower than the strike price of the option 4. An ‘at-the-money’ option has: A. Intrinsic value but no time value B. Time value but no intrinsic value C. Both time value and intrinsic value D. Neither time value nor intrinsic value © Andre Kurten 2022 Option Characteristics questions-2 5. The exercise price in an option contract is: A. The price of the underlying instrument at the time of the transaction B. The price at which the transaction on the underlying instrument will be carried out when the option is exercised C. The price the buyer of the option pays to the seller when entering into the options contract D. The price at which the two counterparties can close-out their position 6. An option premium is normally a positive function of: A. the traded volume B. the historical volatility of the price of the underlying commodity C. the style (European or American) of the option D. the implied volatility of the price of the underlying 7. Which of the following does not directly determine an options fair value price? A. the underlying assets current market price B. volatility C. market expectation as to future trends D. time to maturity © Andre Kurten 2022 Short Straddle Expiry Profile Profit 0 E Loss Sell both a call and put option with the same strike price, notional value, and expiry date Expect very low volatility during the life of the strategy Maximum profit = premium earned, with unlimited downside risk ATM Straddles are delta neutral © Andre Kurten 2022 Long Straddle Expiry Profile Profit 0 E Loss Buy both a call and put option with the same strike price, notional value, and expiry date Expect volatility to be high during the life of the strategy Maximum loss = premium paid, with unlimited upside potential ATM Straddles are delta neutral © Andre Kurten 2022 Option short Strangle Profit 0 A B Asset Price Loss Sell a call and a put with a different strike (lower) price but same expiry date and notional amount. This is a strategy to benefit from low volatility © Andre Kurten 2022 Option Long Strangle Profit 0 A B Asset Price Loss Buy a call at and a put with with a different strike (lower) price but same expiry date and notional amount. This is a strategy to benefit from high volatility © Andre Kurten 2022 A synthetic long asset position Synthetic Long asset Profit Short Put 0 Long Call E Spot Asset Price Loss Long call + Short put with same strike, notional, and expiry = SYNTHETIC LONG ASSET POSITION In theory the price of ATM puts and calls have the same premium and therefore the cost of constructing a synthetic long asset should have little or no premium cost. © Andre Kurten 2022 A synthetic short asset position Synthetic short asset Profit Short call 0 E Spot Asset Price Long put Loss Long put + Short call with same strike, notional, and expiry = SYNTHETIC SHORT ASSET POSITION In theory the price of ATM puts and calls have the same premium and therefore the cost of constructing a synthetic short asset should have little or no premium cost. © Andre Kurten 2022 Option strategy questions 1. An option trader tells you he is long a straddle. What has he done? A. bought both a call and a put option with the same strike price, expiry, and maturity date B. bought a call and sold a put option with the same strike price, expiry, and maturity date C. sold a call and sold a put option with the same strike price, same expiry, and maturity date D. bought a call and bought a put option with the different strike prices same expiry 2. What is the purpose of a short straddle option strategy? A. To anticipate very low volatility in the price of the underlying commodity B. To anticipate moderately high volatility in the price of the underlying commodity C. To anticipate moderate volatility in the price of the underlying commodity D. To anticipate very high volatility in the price of the underlying commodity 3. How can a short asset position be synthesised from options? A. buy a call option and a put option at the same strike price B. sell a call option and a put option at the same strike price C. buy a call option and sell a put option at the same strike price D. sell a call option and buy a put option at the same strike price 4. What is a short strangle option strategy? A. A short call option + long put option with a higher strike price than the call option B. A long call option + long put option with a lower strike price than the call option C. A short call option + short put option with a lower strike price than the call option D. A long call option + long put option with higher strike price than the call option © Andre Kurten 2022 The Option “Greeks” Delta Delta measures the change in the option premium (price) resulting from a change in the price of the underlying asset • • • • Delta on a long call is positive and ranges between 0 and +1 and you would SELL the underlying asset to delta hedge Delta on a short call is negative and ranges between 0 and -1 and you BUY the underlying asset to delta hedge Delta on a long put is negative and ranges between 0 and -1 and you BUY the underlying asset to delta hedge Delta on a short put is positive and ranges between 0 and +1 and you would SELL the underlying asset to delta hedge Delta can also be seen as the likelihood of an option being exercised: Out-the-money options have a delta BELOW 0.50 so less than 50% chance of being exercised. At-the-money options have a delta EQUAL to 0.50 so a 50% chance of being exercised. In-the-money options have a delta ABOVE 0.50 (50%) so greater than 50% chance of being exercised. © Andre Kurten 2022 Delta Hedging Delta hedging is done to neutralize the change in the option premium value. • For options that are at the money (ATM), the delta is usually 0.50 (50%). o This means for a 1c move in the market, the premium should change by 0.5c. • To delta hedge a short ATM USD/CHF call option in 10m USD, the dealer would need to BUY 5m USD to be delta neutral. o The effect is that as the option goes in the money the option value would increase and the option writer would be losing money but because he has bought 5m USD, he will make money on this position, thus neutralizing the loss on the option. o If the option goes out of the money, the option writer will make money on the option, but lose on the delta hedge. • Dealers who trade an options curve will use delta hedging as they are looking to make money from the volatility of price and not the direction of price. © Andre Kurten 2022 Delta Values for In-the-Money Options If a call option is in-the-money, the holder (buyer) would need to sell the delta value of the underlying asset to remain delta neutral. • • • They are getting “long of the underlying” through the option. The delta would range between +0.50 and +1. The opposite is true for the person who has written the call as they would be getting “short of the underlying” so their delta would range between -0.50 and -1 and they would need to buy the underlying asset to remain delta neutral. If a put option is in-the-money, the holder (buyer) would need to buy the delta value of the underlying asset to remain delta neutral. • • • They are getting “short of the underlying” through the option. The delta would range between -0.50 and -1. The opposite is true for the person who has sold the put as they would be getting “long of the underlying” so their delta would range between +0.50 and +1 and they would need to sell the underlying asset to remain delta neutral. © Andre Kurten 2022 The Option “Greeks” Gamma • Gamma measures the change in the delta resulting from a change in the price of the underlying asset. • Gamma is often referred to as the 2nd derivative of options pricing. • Gamma ranges between 0 and 1. • The gamma will be most sensitive to change when the option strike is at-the-money close to expiry. • Gamma exposure can only be offset by buying (selling) options opposite to those already bought (sold). © Andre Kurten 2022 The Option “Greeks” Theta • Theta measures the change in the option premium resulting from a change in the time to expiry of the option • The decay of time will result in the option loosing value, all other factors remaining equal. • Time value decays slowly at first and then increases as the option approaches expiry. • Theta is positive for options writers and negative for option buyers. © Andre Kurten 2022 The Option “Greeks” Vega • Vega measures the change in the option premium resulting from a change in the volatility of the underlying asset price • The more volatile the underlying asset price, the more likely the option will expire in the money. • If volatility increases, the value of the option will also increase, all other factor remaining equal. NOTE: Volatility measures change but not the direction of prices quoted as a percentage per annum © Andre Kurten 2022 The Option “Greeks” Rho Rho measures the change in the option premium resulting from a change in the risk-free interest rate Rho is the least important of the Greeks. If the underlying asset is extremely sensitive to the change in interest rates, then the option value will change, all other factors remaining constant. © Andre Kurten 2022 Interest Rate Options CAPS A Cap is an agreement whereby the buyer buys the right to pay a predetermined fixed interest rate (strike rate) on given dates over a period based on a notional amount. They will receive the difference if the benchmark is above the strike rate on those dates. For this right they pay a premium. (used by borrowers) NOTE: A cap can be described as a strip of European call options FLOORS A floor is an agreement whereby the buyer buys the right to receive a predetermined fixed interest rate (strike rate) on given dates over a period based on a notional principal amount. They will receive the difference if the benchmark is below the strike rate on those dates. For this right they pay a premium (used by lenders) NOTE: A floor can be described as a strip of European put options © Andre Kurten 2022 Interest Rate Options COLLARS This is a hedging strategy that can be used by long-term borrowers or lenders where they reduce the cost of a hedge by limiting the upside benefit. A borrower’s collar is the simultaneous purchase of a cap and sale of a floor with a LOWER strike rate but the same notional value and expiry date. A lender’s collar is the simultaneous purchase of a floor and sale of a cap with a HIGHER strike rate but the same notional value and expiry date. Borrowers are guaranteed a worse case rate - the strike on the cap and will limit the benefit of a favourable market move - the strike on the floor. Lenders are guaranteed a worse case rate - the strike on the floor - and will limit the benefit of a favourable market move - the strike on the cap. © Andre Kurten 2022 Interest Rate Guarantee –IRG An IRG is an agreement whereby the buyer buys the right to pay (or receive) a predetermined fixed rate (strike rate) for a SINGLE future period based on a notional amount. For this right they pay a premium. The buyer of an IRG call will receive the difference if the benchmark is above the strike rate at fixing. The buyer of an IRG put will receive the difference if benchmark is below the strike rate at fixing. An IRG can be considered a caplet or a floorlet. An IRG Call (Put) can be considered as a call (put) option on a FRA. A cap can be seen as a strip of IRG calls (caplets) and A floor can be considered to be a strip of IRG puts (floorlets) © Andre Kurten 2022 Swaptions A swaption, as the name suggests, is an option on an interest rate swap, and is European in style. An example would be a 6-month swaption into a 5-year swap. The holder has the right but not the obligation to exercise in 6 months time. There are two ways in which a swaption can be exercised: The holder can choose to enter into the swap for the term agreed under the contract or, • The holder can opt for a cash settlement on the difference between the strike rate agreed on the swaption and the current fixed rate in the market. A payer swaption - gives the holder (the buyer) the right but not the obligation to pay a fixed rate and receive a floating rate if the swaption is exercised. A payer swaption will only be exercised if the market fixed rate at expiry is HIGHER than the swaption strike A receiver swaption - gives the holder (the buyer) the right but not the obligation to receive a fixed rate and pay a floating rate if the swaption is exercised. A receiver swaption will only be exercised if the market fixed rate at expiry is LOWER than the swaption strike • © Andre Kurten 2022 Currency Options Characteristics of currency options A Call on one currency is a Put on the other currency. For example, if you buy a USD/ JPY call option it is a Call on USD and a Put on JPY. This would be the same as buying a JPY/USD put option. Currency option premiums are payable value spot after the deal date as a percentage of the base currency nominal amount. For example, if the premium of a USD/CHF call option in USD 10million is 0.50%, then the premium will be USD 50,000 payable value spot from the deal date. A currency option is described as at the money when it has a strike price EQUAL to the forward exchange rate. © Andre Kurten 2022 Option Greeks and Caps and floors-1 1. The vega of an option is: A. The sensitivity of the option value to changes in interest rates B. The sensitivity of the option value to changes in implied volatility C. The sensitivity of the option value to changes in the time to expiry D. The sensitivity of the option value to changes in the price of the underlying 2. The delta of an ‘at-the-money’ long put option is: A. Between -0.5 and -1 B. Between +0.5 and +1 C. +0.5 D. -0.5 3. The delta on a short “in-the-money” call is usually A. +0.50 B. between -0.5 and -1.0 C. 1.0 D. zero 4. A 6 month into 5-year payer swaption against 6-month SOFR has a strike rate of 5%. At expiry, the market fixes at 5.75%. Which of the following is true? A. The seller will exercise the swaption on behalf of the buyer B. The buyer will exercise the swaption C. The swaption is out-the-money and will not be exercised. D. None of the above © Andre Kurten 2022 Option Greeks and Caps and floors-2 5. An interest rate cap can be described as: A. A series or strip of European put options B. A series or strip of European call options C. A series or strip of American put options D. A series or strip of American call options 6. Purchasing a USD/JPY call option is equivalent to: A. Selling an JPY/USD put option B. Selling a JPY/USD call option C. Purchasing an JPY/USD put option D. None of the above 7. How could you delta hedge a deeply “in-the-money” short put option? A. Go short of the underlying asset equal to 50% of the size of the option contract B. Go long of the underlying asset equal to 50% of the size of the option contract C. Go long of the underlying asset equal to more than 50% of the full size of the option contract D. Go short of the underlying asset equal to more than 50% of the full size of the option contract 8. An interest rate guarantee (IRG) is effectively: A. An FRA B. An option on an FRA C. A collar D. An IRS © Andre Kurten 2022 Topic Basket 5 Financial Market Applications Covered in Tutorial 5 © Andre Kurten 2022 Section Objectives Overall Objectives: The overall objective of this topic if for candidates to understand the importance that risk has in defining the financial institutions’ business models and to understand the relevance of effective risk management framework as a key driver for sustainability of the business. Candidates will understand and be able to explain and identify major risk groups: market, credit, liquidity, operational, legal, regulatory and reputational risk; and to understand the significance of risk groups for different financial markets’ businesses and organizational units. Candidates are expected to outline the methods and procedures needed to measure and manage these risk types. Candidates will be required to outline the framework for Asset and Liability Management as an integrated balance sheet and risk management concept and to understand the importance of the Basel Accords for risk management issues. . • 10 questions comprising – 5 minimum correct answers © Andre Kurten 2022 What is ALM? ALM Incorporates the modern techniques used in profitability and risk management of commercial banks. These involve the following: •Creating shareholder wealth •Profit centre management •Risk-adjusted performance management •Pricing of credit risk and loan provision •The management of interest rate and liquidity risks As competition is reducing bank margins, the need for more precise information and a complete asset and liability management system is becoming an absolute necessity. © Andre Kurten 2022 Principals of the BASEL Committee 1. Board and senior management oversight of interest rate risk 2. Adequate risk management policies and procedures 3. Risk measurement and monitoring 4. Internal controls 5. Information for supervisory authorities 6. Capital adequacy 7. Disclosure of interest rate risk 8. Supervisory treatment of interest rate risk in the banking book These guidelines set by the Basel committee have prompted a significant evolution in systems used by banks for managing interest rate risk, which have gradually become more comprehensive and accurate. © Andre Kurten 2022 What is the function of the ALM team? Banks have 3 main sources of funds: This is known as the available stable funding - ASF. This must be at least 100% of RSF 1. Deposits from clients 2. Interbank deposits 3. Shareholders equity Banks invest in 5 main assets: This is known as the required stable funding - RSF 1. Reserves with the central bank 2. Loans 3. Interbank loans 4. Bonds 5. Fixed assets The ALCO comprises the CEO and heads of business units in Credit, retail, corporate and Treasury. The ALM team or ALCO (asset and Liability Committee) controls profit and risk. • They consider the banks solvency, liquidity management, structural foreign exchange positions, Funds Transfer Pricing, but most importantly Interest rate risk. © Andre Kurten 2022 Available and Required Stable Funding Available Stable Funding This looks at the liability side of the balance sheet of a bank. Equity is the most stable form of funding. Next best is retail and demand deposits and savings. The least stable form is short-term repo, deposits from other banks and loans from the central bank. Required Stable Funding. This looks at the asset side of the balance sheet. The most liquidity absorbing assets are consumer and corporate loans Next is mortgages Then trading positions and financial assets The least is cash and Central bank balances © Andre Kurten 2022 Capital Adequacy The Basel accord is the main capital adequacy structure that bank supervisors use. The accord covers aspects of capital, risk weighting of assets and the required capital ratio to meet the banks product mix. The basic Capital Adequacy Directive (CAD) sets the minimum capital required at 8% of total risk-weighted assets (RWA). •This is known as the Cooke Ratio The three pillars of the BASEL Accord are: 1.Minimum Capital Requirements – measurement of capital adequacy for credit, market, and operational risk. 2.The Supervisory Process – Risk management requirements (Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP) and Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP). The Liquidity Coverage Ratio –(LCR) and Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) 3.Market Discipline – Management must be transparent in reporting risk © Andre Kurten 2022 Capital Adequacy under Basel II Refers to the adequacy of a banks capital in relation to risk arising from: •Assets (loans, negotiable paper) •Dealing operations •Off-balance sheet transactions •Other business risk Equity Capital enables a bank to bear risk and absorb unexpected losses Regulatory Capital •Prescribed by the regulatory authorities in the country. This is split into two main categories namely Tier 1 (core) and Tier 2. Economic capital •this is the amount of capital needed to cover the risk being faced by a bank. (usually in excess of Regulatory Capital). •This is the capital specifically allocated to a branch of a bank. •It can also be defined as capital at risk (CaR) and can be measured using a VaR process. © Andre Kurten 2022 Types of Capital •Tier 1 (going concern capital) oCommon equity Tier 1(CET1) capital comprises common shares, retained earnings; common shares issued by consolidated subsidiaries. oUnder BASEL III there are new targets for capital to be in place by 2019. these are: oThe common equity in Tier 1 (CET1) must be a minimum of 4.50%. oTotal Tier 1 capital (CET1 plus other Tier 1) must be a minimum of 6.0% (the additional 1.50% balance is made up of non-cumulative prefs, hybrid instruments with a high trigger and terms at issue of longer that 5 years ) oA conservation buffer of 2.50% CET1 will also be required making Tier 1 total 8.50%. oTotal capital required remains 8% (6% tier 1 and 2% tier 2) with the 2.50% conservation buffer totaling 10.50% •Tier 2 (gone concern capital) (no longer distinction between upper and lower) •Can be 2% to make up the total of 8%. It comprises, Subordinated term debt with original minimum term of 5 years. Hybrid capital instruments with a low trigger, and undisclosed reserves. •Tier 3 (no longer in use) NOTE: Under BASEL III certain Tier 2 capital will go from being bonds to common equity if the banks capital ratio falls below a certain level. These are referred to as CoCos (contingent convertibles). Gone concern capital is where the Tier 2 bonds lose their superior status and become common stock if the bank regulatory capital falls below the required minimum (bankruptcy). © Andre Kurten 2022 ALM and Basel III Questions 1. From 2019 the total capital requirement for banks under Basel III is defined as: A. 8% of RWA plus conservation buffer B. 10.5% of RWA plus conservation buffer C. 8% of RWA plus countercyclical buffer D. 10.5% of RWA plus countercyclical buffer 2. Under Basel III rules the meaning of RSF is: A. Reviewed Supervisory Factor B. Required Stable Funding C. Riskless Stable Funding D. Riskless Supervised Funding 3. Prudential regulation of banking book liquidity risk is dealt with by the Basel Committee (Basel II/Basel III) in the context of: A. capital adequacy regulations in Pillar 1 B. market risk and Tier 3 capital elements C. internal management procedures subject to supervisory review in Pillar 2 D. market discipline, disclosure and transparency in Pillar 3 4. Which of the following is a function of asset and liability management (ALM)? A. coordinated limit management of a financial institution’s credit portfolio B. running a matched trading book C. monitoring credit quality of assets and establishing a early warning system D. managing the financial risk of the bank by protecting it from the adverse effects of changing interest rates © Andre Kurten 2022 Capital Adequacy Credit Risk Risk weighted assets Trading Risk Operational Risk Credit Risk Weighting •Two approaches: •standardized approach which relies on external ratings; that is ratings given by rating agencies such as Moody’s and Standard and Poor or Fitch-IBCA •The second approach which has received the most attention all over the world is the Internal Rating –Based (IRB) approach (available under two options: foundation or advanced) We will examine each approach; the Standardised approach and the foundational approach for IRB. © Andre Kurten 2022 Credit Risk Weighting – Standardized Approach The Standardized approach is one where a weighting will be related to the riskiness of the transaction, as identified by the rating of external rating agencies such as Moody’s or S&P. The table below is the weighting given by the Basel rules: AAA-/AA- A+/AGovernments 0% 20% Banks>3mths 20% 50% Banks< 3mths 20% 20% Corporates 20% 50% BBB+/BBB50% 100% 20% 100% BB+/B- Below B100% 150% 100% 150% 50% 150% 100% 150% Unrated 100% 100% 20% 100% A loan made to a A+ would be rated at 50% therefore a loan of $100 would attract capital of ≥ 8% x ($100 x 50%) = $4 NOTE: The MAXIMUM risk weighting that can be applied to a loan is 1250%. This makes the capital held equal to the face value of the loan. (100 x 8% x 1250% = 100) © Andre Kurten 2022 Credit Risk Weighting – Internal RatingsBased (IRB) Approach In the IRB approach, the banks have to calculate the probability of default of a corporate client over a 1-year time horizon. •That is lending to a client today, what is the likelihood of default by the borrower in one years time? •This probability of default is referred to as the PD. NOTE: to apply the IRB foundational approach you need two pieces of information: the PD and the maturity of the loan. With retail loans (small amounts), a similar PD can be calculated for a portfolio of loans. The three parameters prescribed under Basel Committee of Bank Supervision (BCBS) to calculate the capital charge for credit risk under the IRB Advanced approach are the following: 1. The probability of default (PD) 2. The exposure at default (EAD) 3. The loss given default (LGD) NOTE: LGD is the same as 1- recovery rate Also; Effective maturity (M) M = maturity; b(PD) = maturity adjustment R = correlation between defaults © Andre Kurten 2022 Credit risk mitigation - Securitization Securitization is where bonds are issued which have the backing of an income producing asset, typically bank debt in the form of long-term debit instruments such as mortgages or short-term debt instruments, such as credit card receipts. Securitization can only be done using a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV). These assets are known as CDO’s (collateralized debt obligations) or CMO’s (collateralized mortgage obligations) This is a popular way of banks freeing up capital and transferring credit risk. There are usually different classes of bonds issued in a single securitisation based on the credit of the underlying securitised asset. Issuing Bank Removes assets Balance sheet Frees up capital Assets against which the bonds are issued Trust or SPV Issues bonds of differing classes based on the underlying credit Bond Market © Andre Kurten 2022 Credit risk mitigation- credit derivatives Credit derivatives are a relatively new phenomenon, and have really only become prominent in the mid to late 90’s A credit derivative is a privately negotiated contract whose value is derived from the credit risk of a bond, bank loan, or some other credit instrument. Credit derivatives allow the market participant to separate default risk from the other forms of risk, such as interest rate and currency risk Three basic structures •Credit Default Swap – CDS this bases the payoff on a specific credit event, such as a bond down grading or default. •A total return swap - Links a stream of payments to the total return on a specific asset. •Credit spread options - Ties the payoff to the credit spread on a specific bank loan or bond. © Andre Kurten 2022 Credit Derivative triggers The standard ISDA documentation for credit swaps defines a set of credit events which trigger the Credit Derivative. A credit event could be one of the following: •Payment default on an agreed-upon public or private debt issue (the reference asset) •Debt rescheduling •A filing for bankruptcy •Or some other specified event to which the two parties agree. As a general rule, the credit event must be an objectively measurable event involving real financial distress; technical defaults are usually excluded. The reference credit is usually a corporation, a government, or some other debt issuer or borrower to which the credit protection buyer has some credit exposure. The contract will contain a materiality clause which will: •Call for a significant move of the reference credit’s underlying stock or bond price •Ensure that the market recognizes the credit event for what is •Prevent an unnecessary trigger due to a default caused by legal questions © Andre Kurten 2022 Operation Risk Weighting – Basic Indicator Approach, Standardized Approach and Advanced Measurement (AMA) approach Basic Indicator Approach •this is calculated as 15% of the average gross income of the bank over the last three years. •This is the simplest approach to Ops risk capital charge. •Similar to SA The standardized approach (SA) •this is straight forward: oThe capital charge is simply a multiple of the gross revenue of an activity, averaged over the last three years. oGross revenue is the sum of net interest margin and non-interest income (such a fee charged). oThe capital charge under this method is the same for all banks irrespective of their operational control processes. The Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA) •under this approach, the banks themselves estimate statistically what could be the worst operational losses, for a confidence level of 99.9%. This requires estimation of two factors: •The number (frequency) of operational losses over one year, and the potential magnitude of these operational losses © Andre Kurten 2022 Credit and Operation Risk Management Questions 1. Under Basel rules, what is the meaning of RWA? A. Risk Weighted Assets B. Risk Weighted Average C. Recovery Weighted Assets D. Risk Weighted Adjustments 2. When considering interest rate risk in the banking book, retail demand deposits without fixed contractual maturity: A. should be assumed to have zero duration B. should be treated like other instantly variable rate liabilities, such as overnight money market borrowing. C. should be assumed to have a low correlation with money market reference rates D. represent a minor contributor to interest rate risk and can safely be disregarded 3. Under Basel Securitization rules the highest potential risk weight is: A. 350% B. 750% C. 1250% D. 1500% 4. Which of the following statements about Credit Default Swaps (CDS) is correct? A. CDS are used to recover funds from defaulted swap counterparties. B. CDS provide protection against specified credit events to the party receiving the CDS premium payments. C. CDS provide protection against the default of the trade counterparty that buys the CDS. D. CDS provide compensation to the protection buyer, should a specified credit event occur to a third-party entity. © Andre Kurten 2022 Interest rate risk management Gap analysis (Maturity method) •Interest rate risk is identified as the possible changes in net interest income. The maturity method is generally used for the short to medium term. •The gap is a concise measure of the interest rate risk that links changes in market interest rates (either a parallel shift or titling of the yield curve) to changes in the net interest income (NII) of the bank. •The gap over a given period is defined as the difference between the amount of rate sensitive assets and rate sensitive liabilities. •A positive gap is one where rate sensitive assets exceed rate sensitive liabilities. (lent floating and borrowed fixed in that gap) •A negative gap is one where rate sensitive liabilities exceed rate sensitive assets. (borrowed floating and lent fixed in that gap) •A positive gap benefits from rising interest rates •A negative gap benefits from falling interest rates A 5-year loan that re-prices monthly would fall into the 1-month repricing gap, but the 5-year liquidity gap. A long 6x12 FRA would be considered as a 6-month asset and a 12-month liability in gap analysis © Andre Kurten 2022 Duration - 1 For longer term interest rate risk, banks tend to use the duration. Duration (Macaulay) is the measure of the weighted average life of an asset or liability on a banks book. (the time it takes to achieve half of the benefits offered by the asset or cost of a liability) Rules for duration •The lower the coupon of a bond, the higher (longer) its duration •The lower the yield to maturity, the higher its duration, so duration will be highest for zero-coupon bonds. (NOTE: zero-coupon bonds are also the most sensitive to yield changes) •The longer a bond has to maturity, the longer its duration. •As a bond maturity decreases, the duration of a bond decreases Modified Duration, which is derived from duration, is a method used to calculate the change in the basis point value – BPV caused by a change in the yield curve. This is important, because for a 1 basis point change in yield, not all asset and liabilities change by the same value. Long-term assets and liabilities are far more sensitive to yield changes than shortterm assets or liabilities. © Andre Kurten 2022 Duration - 2 So importantly, a shift in yield curve may reflect a positive change to a banks NII using simple gap or maturity method, but a negative change to the profit of the bank using Modified Duration. For example, the coupon interest on a fixed rate bond, which we hold, is not affected by a change in the market yield, but the value of the bond is certainly affected. Rising yields cause a unrealised loss on the value of a bond and vice versa. The Basel rules for a banks maximum interest rate sensitivity A revaluation loss as a result of an immediate parallel rise (or fall) of the yield curve by 200bp may not exceed 20% of the banks own funds (capital). The maximum allowed duration of equity is 10 (20%/2%) To lengthen the duration of your assets BUY long bond futures To lengthen the duration of your liabilities SELL long bond futures © Andre Kurten 2022 Basel III - Liquidity Risk Liquidity Coverage Ratio - LCR •The Basel III rules insist that a bank maintains a high liquidity coverage ratio. This rule requires banks to have enough cash or near-cash to survive a 30-day market crisis. Net Stable Funding Ratio – NSFR (1 year time horizon) •This ratio is applied to reduce the banks dependency on short-term funding and is longer term in nature to limit over-reliance on short-term wholesale funding. Leverage ratio •This ratio refers to the amount of regulatory capital and the nominal amount of on and off balance sheet exposures and derivatives. This is recommended to be a minimum Tier 1 leverage ratio of 3% Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) is PD x EAD x LGD or PD x EAD x 1-recovery rate Stress testing •These are tools used to identify and manage situations which can cause extraordinary losses. They can be based on the following: 1. Replication of the strongest market shocks which occurred in the past 2. Statistical measures with extreme multiple of historical volatility 3. Subjective assumptions such as a 100BP move up or down in the Yield Curve © Andre Kurten 2022 Funds Transfer Pricing The main aims of internal funds transfer pricing system: 1.To transfer interest rate risk from the various units in the bank to one central unit usually the Treasury. The Treasury can correctly evaluate and manage this risk and where necessary apply the relevant hedging policies 2.To evaluate the actual profitability of this activity by assigning interest rate risk management to a single centralized unit 3.To remove the need for each division from dealing with the funding of their loans or the investment of surplus deposits 4.To provide a more accurate assessment of the contribution of each operating unit to the banks overall profitability. The bank can either apply a single internal transfer rate (ITR), (usually a floating benchmark like SOFR) or it can apply multiple ITRs reflective of the maturity profile of deposits and loans. This would often also include a liquidity spread. © Andre Kurten 2022 Hedge Accounting under IFRS 9 Hedge Accounting is applied when a transaction is undertaken to mitigate the market risk on an existing position. The hedge must be shown to be effective. Hedge accounting will no longer apply if it fails the effectiveness test, or once the underlying position and/or the hedging instrument is terminated or matures. Fair Value Hedge When a risk exposure is associated with the price of an asset, liability or firm commitment, and when there are no uncertain cash flows involved with the risk, like a fixed income bond, the hedging relationship is said to be a “fair value hedge”. The derivative (usually an IRS) must be MTM, with the resulting gains / losses shown in earnings. In addition, the underlying exposure due to the risk being hedged must also be MTM, and these results flow through current income as well. To the extent that the two contributions to earnings are offsetting, the hedge will not have an impact on current earnings. Imbalances between these two will, however, impact earnings. Cash Flow Hedges A “Cash flow Hedge” is a hedging relationship where the risk exposure is that of an upcoming, forecasted event, where the prospective cash payment (receipt) is an uncertain amount, like that of a Floating Rate Note - FRN. For cash flow hedges, the derivative (usually an IRS) results must be evaluated, with a determination made as to how much of the result is “effective” and how much is “ineffective”. The ineffective component of the hedge results must be realized in current income, while the effective portion is initially posted to “other income” and is later reclassified as income in the same time frame in which the forecasted cash flow affects earnings. © Andre Kurten 2022 Gap analysis and Duration Questions 1. What is a ‘duration gap’? A. the average maturity of liabilities on a balance sheet B. the difference between the duration of assets and liabilities C. the difference between the duration of the longest-held and shortest-held liabilities D. the average maturity of the portfolio on the asset side of a balance sheet 2. Which of the following transactions would have the effect of lengthening the average duration of assets in the banking book? A. buying futures contracts on 30-year German Government bonds B. selling futures contracts on 30-year German Government bonds C. buying put options on 30-year German Government bonds D. buying a 3x6 forward rate agreement 3. All other things being equal the interest rate risk of a fixed coupon bond is: A. greater, the higher the coupon and the longer the term B. greater, the lower the coupon and the longer the term C. lower, the lower the coupon and the shorter the term D. lower, the higher the coupon and the longer the term 4. A purchased 3X6 FRA should be reported in a gap report as A. a given deposit with a term of six months B. a taken deposit with a term of three months C. a given deposit with a term of three months and a taken deposit with a term of six months D. a taken deposit with a term of three months and a given deposit with a term of six months © Andre Kurten 2022 FTP, Hedge Accounting Questions 1. The Liquidity Coverage Ratio imposed by Basel III requires a bank: A. to keep enough highly liquid assets to cover its net liabilities for the next 10 days to guard against severe liquidity stress B. to keep enough highly liquid assets to cover its net liabilities for the next 30 days to guard against severe liquidity stress C. to keep enough highly liquid assets to cover its net liabilities for the next 60 days to guard against severe liquidity stress D. to retain enough liquidity to cover its assets against severe default risk 2. Which one of the following statements is incorrect? Hedge accounting of an existing position no longer applies when: A. The trader acquires additional exposure in the hedged item. B. The hedging instrument is sold, terminated or exercised. C. The hedged item is sold or settled D. A hedge fails the effectiveness test. 3. Which of the following is NOT a requirement for applying hedge accounting? A. Hedge documentation should be in place B. The expected effectiveness of the hedge must be demonstrated at the start of the hedge C. During the term of the hedge, the effectiveness of hedge must be measured and reported D. The term of the derivative instrument and of the hedging item should be equal. 4. What is the function of liquidity transfer pricing? A. It charges providers of funds for the cost of liquidity and allocates part of the net interest income to users of funds as a benefit of liquidity B. It measures the total amount of liquidity at risk C. It allocates the net interest income as a result of interest rate mismatches between the respective business units of the bank. D. It attributes costs, benefits, and risks of liquidity to respective business units of the bank © Andre Kurten 2022 Treasury Risk Volatile exchange rates and interest rates together with a market environment that has become increasingly complex, makes risk management within the treasury a vital function. Treasury risk management staff must have a trading background or at least some technical skill to deal with the risk control function within the treasury. Lack of expertise can result in losses. Segregation of duties and reporting is also vital within the treasury environment A professional standards review in addition to the conventional audit is also recommended to review the conduct of treasury officers © Andre Kurten 2022 Credit Risks Default Risk (counterparty risk) •Exposure to the likelihood or possibility that a counterparty to an outstanding transaction may not be able to settle due to bankruptcy or liquidation. •Such a loss leads to the product of the exposure at default (EAD) and the loss given default (LGD). Country Risk •Caused mainly by a currency crisis where borrowers are unwilling or unable to settle outstanding transactions. •Political and economic factors play an important role in the assessment of country risk. •There are many reports generated by industry bodies detailing current economic and political events within countries. Settlement Risk •Usually the risk that payment is effected on a currency transaction without the receipt of payment in turn from the counterparty to the transaction. •In currency settlement this risk is referred to as HERSTATT RISK. •CLS Bank is the safest way to mitigate settlement risk © Andre Kurten 2022 Credit Risks Replacement risk •This is the cost of replacing a deal which is in default. •Eg. if you enter a deal to purchase currency at a forward date and the counterpart to the trade cannot deliver, you can cancel the deal and enter a new deal to replace the exiting deal. •Any price over and above the original price paid is the replacement cost. •You will only lose money if there was a positive unrealized P&L. •The only time the full capital amount is at risk is when delivery has already been made and cannot be revoked. •The process of marking-to-market allows a bank to assess the replacement risk on all outstanding deals on an ongoing basis. •Close out netting is the commonly used netting where a counterparty is in default. © Andre Kurten 2022 Minimum Control Standards For Credit Risk Good credit assessment Credit limits imposed and monitored by management • By counterparty • By industry • By country Credit enhancement – Credit Derivatives Default management – ISDA and ICMA documentation Termination clauses – used in the IRS market Payment netting – bilateral and multilateral Covenants • these are conditions that the borrower must adhere to in terms of the loan agreement. • Failure to adhere to the covenants can result in the bank demanding immediate payment of the loan. • There are usually financial and non-financial covenants attached to a loan agreement. © Andre Kurten 2022 Market Risks Currency Risk (exchange rate risk) •The cost of closing out open foreign exchange positions in currencies to which the treasury is exposed. •This can be as a result of FX or FX derivative positions. •A common benchmark for controlling risk in this area is “the maximum loss” permissible for one day on open positions. •Real time feeds help to monitor the intra day risk on open positions. Different currency exposure may result from Transaction exposure •spot or forward transaction losses money due to a change in the exchange rate Translation exposure •value of foreign assets or profits of multinational company due to a devaluation of currency Economic exposure •business profits affected by a change in the exchange rate for exporters or importers © Andre Kurten 2022 Market Risks Interest Rate Risk •Exposure to the changes in interest rates for interest rate products such as bonds, FRAs, IRSs, caps, floors, and Interest rate futures. •Banks also consider the risk of yield curve changing relative to the mismatch between assets and liabilities (Gap Analysis). •Liquidity ladders should be managed to gauge mismatches and monitor the banks liquidity position. NOTE: A loss as a result of an immediate upward (or downward) parallel shift in the yield curve of 200bp may not exceed 20% of the banks regulatory capital. (remember the equity ratio of 10) This a vital risk which needs to be carefully managed!! Equity Risk •the risk that a market position is sensitive to equity market performance (stocks, stock index futures, options) Commodity risk •the market value of a position is sensitive to commodity price changes Volatility risk •a market position is sensitive to the volatility of prices in FX, interest rate, equity and commodity markets © Andre Kurten 2022 Minimum Control Standards For Market Risk Transaction approval Measurement • Regular marking to market of open positions • Gap analysis for interest rate exposure • Risk identification using Value at Risk modeling (VaR) Risk reporting Risk system development – good revaluation Limit approval Timeous inputting of deals Matching of hedges with the hedged instrument © Andre Kurten 2022 Measuring Market Risk - VaR Value at Risk – VaR is a method of assessing market risk. VaR permits the aggregation of market risks across asset classes. In other words it assesses the exposure that the institution has on all open positions. VaR is characterised by three key elements: 1.It indicates the MAXIMUM potential loss that a position or portfolio can suffer 2.Within a certain confidence level (lower than 100%) 3.Limited to a certain time horizon that the position will remain constant. •For example a USD 5m daily VaR at 95%confidence means the expected loss should not exceed USD 5m 95 days out of 100 (or 19 days out of 20) It also indicates that in 5 days out of 100 the expected loss could exceed USD 5m. •Note: As the confidence level increases, so for example, if the 95% confidence maximum expected loss is given as USD 5m, applying a 99% confidence level could indicate a maximum expected USD 7m (99 day out of 100). Basel Accord recommends a 99% confidence level, a 10 day holding period (the time the position is not altered or sold) using historical data of © Andre Kurten 2022 Value at Risk Models The models most often used to measure VaR are: 1. Variance –covariance method 2. Monte Carlo simulation 3. Historical simulation Limitations of the VaR 1. It assumes log normal distribution of prices 2. It requires a constant volatility and correlation estimate 3. It assumes a linear payoff hypothesis that is the assumption that price change is linear and not convex. 4. It provides no measure of the excess loss if the actual loss is greater than the expected loss. One of the ways to overcome this is to apply another risk measure referred to as the Expected Shortfall. Expected shortfall - is defined as the expected value of all losses in excess of VaR and can be measured using stress testing © Andre Kurten 2022 Credit Risk, Market risk, and VaR Questions 1. Taking collateral to hedge the credit risk on a counterparty means that you have: A. Eliminated credit risk B. Eliminated market risk C. Taken a guarantee from the issuer of the collateral D. Taken on market, legal and operational risks 2. Which of the following is described as Herstatt risk? A. failure to meet settlement on an interest rate swap fixing B. settlement failure on a foreign exchange spot transaction on value date C. risk to counterparty on deal date for a forward exchange rate swap D. the risk in trading EUR FRAs 3. What is the correct interpretation of a EUR 5,000,000.00 one-week VaR figure with a 99% confidence level? A. A loss of at least EUR 5,000,000.00 can be expected in 99 out of the next 100 weeks. B. A loss of at most EUR 5,000,000.00 can be expected in 1 out of the next 100 weeks. C. A loss of at most EUR 5,000,000.00 can be expected in 1 out of the next 100 days. D. A loss of at least EUR 5,000,000.00 can be expected in 1 out of the next 100 weeks. 4. If the daily 90% confidence level VaR of a portfolio is correctly estimated to be USD 5,000,000, one would expect that: A. in 1 out of 10 days, the portfolio value will decline by USD 5,000,000 or less. B. in 1 out of 90 days, the portfolio value will decline by USD 5,000,000 or less. C. in 1 out of 10 days, the portfolio value will decline by USD 5,000,000 or more. D. in 1 out of 90 days, the portfolio value will decline by USD 5,000,000 or more.© Andre Kurten 2022 Dealing Room Limit Structures Market risk and credit risk are only limited by the imposition of LIMITS. Credit limits •these are used to control credit risk and are set OUTSIDE of treasury. •A dealer must strictly keep within the limits set. •Credit limits will be set by counterparty, market sector, and country. Dealing limits •these are limits used to control market risk. Limits will be set per instrument, currency, dealer, desk, and dealing room. •Most banks use VaR limits rather than a nominal positional limit. So for example, a dealer has a VaR limit of $1,000 per basis on an open CD position. This means that if the market moves adversely then the dealers position cannot result in a loss of more than $1,000 per BP. So a VaR limit attempts to indicate the level of market risk before it economic consequences are realised. LIMITS DO NOT CHANGE unless management adjust them. © Andre Kurten 2022 Common Business Day conventions Calendar rolls Modified Following (CRMF) • Convention applied when: concluding certain deals in particular deals which have a number of events, e.g. − an interest rate swap, or − an interest rate option. • This is a Business Day Convention whereby: payment days that fall on a holiday or weekend, roll forward to the next Good Business Day, − if that day falls in the next calendar month, the payment day rolls backward to the immediately preceding Good Business Day. New bank holidays (public holidays) • Where a new bank holiday is declared, the new value date on existing deals is the next business day o • unless the counterparties have agreed otherwise. In currency transactions, the affected parties should agree to adjust the exchange rate according to the relevant forward mid-rate. © Andre Kurten 2022 Other Identifiable Risks - 1 Legal Risk •Caused by ineffective contracts which result in the inability to enforce them. Before dealing with a client, banks should be clear that all the necessary documentation is in place. Reputational risk •This is the risk arising from negative perception on the part of customers, counterparties, shareholders, investors or regulators that can adversely affect a bank’s ability to maintain existing, or establish new, business relationships and continued access to sources of funding. •Reputational risk may give rise to credit, liquidity, market and legal risk – all of which can have a negative impact on a bank’s earnings, liquidity and capital position. Regulatory Risk •Caused by the banks non-compliance with regulation, reporting and compliance required by the financial authorities and or the Central Bank. •The consequence can be the imposition of fines or in the worse case, the withdrawal of the financial institution’s license to operate. Model Risk •the risk that computer model used by a dealer to price and value an instrument is wrong. This is an operational risk, but clearly it can create potential market risk. © Andre Kurten 2022 Other Identifiable Risks -2 Specific risk is a risk that affects a very small number of assets. This is sometimes referred to as "unsystematic risk” or unique risk. Systematic risk is where an entire asset class or sector is affected. In a balanced portfolio of assets there is a spread between general market risk and risks specific to individual components of that portfolio. An example would be the risk of one bond in a portfolio of different bonds losing value because of a downgrade of the issuer. Systematic risk would be where the entire bond portfolio suffers loss as a result of a market crisis. Systemic risk is the risk of collapse of an entire financial system or entire market, as opposed to risk associated with any one individual entity, group or component of a system. •Often referred to as a ‘knock-on effect’. Same way risk or wrong-way risk is defined by ISDA as the risk that occurs when “exposure to a counterparty is adversely correlated with the credit quality of that counterparty”. It arises when default risk and credit exposure increase together. An example would be buying a CDS on a defaulting reference asset which was issued by the CDS writer. © Andre Kurten 2022 Operational Risk This is broadly defined as the likelihood of a loss, as measured by the value of the loss, on the transaction processed. This loss is usually caused by people, processes, systems, or data. This is a risk which is CONTROLLABLE by the bank. Causes may be as a result of: •Lack of proper procedures •No segregation of duties •Insider trading •Market manipulation •Lack of internal controls •Insufficient systems •Manual interventions •Payment authorizations •Unskilled or shortage of staff •Capacity •Disaster recovery policies © Andre Kurten 2022 Minimum Control Standards For Operational Risk • • • • • • • Timeous transaction processing Constant Position reconciliation Timeous input and confirmation Good Cash management Security for environment and systems Proper customer service Policy and procedure adherence – everyone must understand the mechanics of the transactions • Strictly controlled database management • Good control and management on the introduction of new products • Good management information systems / exceptions reports © Andre Kurten 2022 Basic documentation Basic documentation is necessary to establish: The business to be conducted The limits on deal/transaction size Who the authorised dealers are that can bind the company Who the authorised signatory/s are on the confirmations © Andre Kurten 2022 Documentation in current use ISDA •International Swap and Derivatives Association •Documentation covers all treasury instruments except Repos Credit support annex – CSA This is an annexure to the ISDA which deals with collateral and margining of OTC derivatives SIFMA/ICMA Global Master Repurchase Agreement (GMRA) •encompassing the International Capital Market Association – ICMA (previously ISMA), and •Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association – SIFMA (previously TBMA/PSA) FEOMA •Foreign Exchange and Options Master Agreement (IFXCO – International FX and currency Options) © Andre Kurten 2022 Other risks, Documentation and Limits Questions 1. You have just sold USD 5 million spot against JPY. What type of risk does NOT apply? A. Market risk B. Settlement risk C. Basis risk D. Credit risk 2. Which of the following scenarios offer an example of wrong way risk? A. A bank purchases credit protection on highly-rated tranches of US mortgage-backed securities from a US mortgage bank B. A bank sells protection on the iTraxx main index at a level of 25 bps and shortly afterwards the index crosses the 200 bps level C. A bank sells EUR put/USD call ATM options with an expiry date of 6 months and afterwards volatility moves up to substantially higher levels D. A bank enters into a receiver’s swap while interest rates are increasing 3. The major risk to the effectiveness of netting is: A. Credit risk B. Settlement risk C. Liquidity risk D. Legal risk 4. If a counterparty refuses to pay the profit due to you on a derivatives transaction and argues that you dealt with an unauthorized member of their treasury staff what type of risk are you exposed to? A. Legal risk B. Market risk C. Basis risk D. Settlement risk © Andre Kurten 2022 Netting Payment netting •This is applied to payments in the same currency for the same value date. Where two banks have a large volume of treasury transactions to settle on a particular value date, the net pay and receive amounts for each could be much reduced if these were netted off against each other. Other forms of netting are usually applied when there is default by a counterparty and open positions exist. •The main reason for this form of netting is to prevent “cherry picking” by the liquidators © Andre Kurten 2022 Types of Payment Netting Bilateral netting of payments Agreed between two parties and they enter into a contract. Very easy to implement from a legal and systems point of view. Bilateral netting of payments is described as ONE PAYMENT, PER COUNTERPARTY, PER CURRENCY, PER DAY Multilateral netting of Payments This is much more complex and is easiest to understand when examining the structure of a CLEARING HOUSE. Multilateral netting of payments is described as ONE PAYMENT, PER CURRENCY, PER DAY There are several participants in the netting process and there is normally a redistributing of default risk. Continuous linked settlement (CLS) is a Multilateral netting system for FX settlement. It is the most effective in preventing loss due to default. Payment netting is consider best market practice by the ACI FMA © Andre Kurten 2022 Other Forms of Netting Netting by novation This is a netting arrangement where the existing contracts are netted out and cancelled and replaced by a single new (nova) contract Close out netting This is applied by an area outside of treasury in the instance of a bankruptcy. All open positions are marked to market and a single payment is made to settle all outstanding commitments. This is usually the type of netting applied in ISDA and ICMA documentation in the case of a bankruptcy. Standardised documentation has been set up for OTC derivatives contracts by industry bodies such as the International Swap and Derivatives Association (ISDA) and ICMA (International Capital Market Association) which contain netting clauses for confirmation and payment netting. © Andre Kurten 2022 Reconciliation's Internal recon's – position keeping is used to determine market exposure, unrealised P&L, and current net position An example A dealer makes the following spot EUR/USD transactions: Buys EUR10mio at 1.1001, buys EUR 25,5mio at 1.0993, and sells EUR 20mio at 1.1011 1. What is his position after these trade and what is the average rate? EUR RATE USD +10,000,000 x 1,1001 = - 11,001,000 +25,500,000 x 1.0993 = -28,032,150 -20,000,000 x 1.1011 = +22,022,000 +15,500,000 -17,011,150 17,011,150/15,500,000 = 1.0975 average rate on a long position of EUR15,5mio 2. If the end-of-day revaluation rate is 1.0990, what is his unrealised profit or loss? EUR RATE USD +15,500,000 -17,011,150 -15,500,000 x 1.0990 +17,034,500 Square +23,350 So the dealers unrealised profit at the end of the day is USD23,350 © Andre Kurten 2022 Nostro and Vostro accounts Nostro account is “our” foreign exchange account held with an overseas correspondent bank •e.g. from London Bank perspective, their USD account held with Citibank NY Vostro account is a local currency account held on behalf of an overseas client bank •e.g. from Citibank NY perspective, the London Bank USD account held with themselves. Sometimes also referred to as a Loro account. Note: A Nostro and Vostro account are the same account. A Loco account is an account for gold in London. •It can be described as a “nostro account” for gold. © Andre Kurten 2022 Netting, Recons and Nostro Questions 1. At the end of the day, you are short CHF 3,500,000.00 against SEK at 6.9275.You are asked to revalue your position at 6.9190.What is the resulting profit or loss? A. Profit of CHF 29,750.00 B. Profit of SEK 29,750.00 C. Loss of SEK 29,750.00 D. Loss of CHF 29,750.00 2. What type of risk would you face if a payments system failed? A. Credit risk B. Market risk C. Liquidity risk D. Legal risk 3. What is a ‘vostro’ account? A. your account in a foreign currency with another bank B. your account in domestic currency with another bank C. an account held with your bank by another in a foreign currency D. an account held with your bank by another in your currency 4. You are the fixed-rate payer in a plain vanilla interest rate swap. If your counterparty defaults, your exposure at default is: A. greater, the higher the market swap rate and the shorter the term B. lower, the lower the market swap rate and the shorter the term C. lower, the lower the market swap rate and the longer the term D. greater, the higher the market swap rate and the longer the term © Andre Kurten 2022 Straight Through Processing Four main factors that help streamline STP: 1. Front-end (dealing) data capture 2. Standard Settlement Instructions - SSIs 3. Immediate matching of confirmations SWIFTNet Accord, TRAM, or BART 4. Automated payment systems – A Real Time Gross Settlement System (RTGS) These have become the building blocks that have taken the concept of STP from theory to practice. Deals can now go from initiation to settlement without ANY manual intervention. © Andre Kurten 2022 Continuous linked Settlement CLS eliminates the settlement risk in cross currency payment instruction settlement through CLS Bank in NY. • This is achieved by linking the local central bank Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) systems in the participating countries. • This occurs during a five-hour window of their overlapping business hours: in this window, settlement instructions for a particular date are settled and funds are requested to be paid in and are paid out by CLS Bank. CLS Bank is based in New York and is a multi-lateral netting system for currency settlement and achieves STP. Only currencies which are part of CLS can settle through the system. Only counterparties in countries which are part of CLS can use the system. Currency pair, counterparty, and time determine whether a deal can settle through CLS. © Andre Kurten 2022 Some Essential Abbreviations - 1 PLEASE NOTE: You may face questions regarding a number of abbreviations in the exam in both ALM and Risk Management sections in the exam. CREDIT RISK • IRB – Internal Rating Based. An approach to measure the capital required for credit risk applied using the banks own models. • CVA– Credit Value Adjustment is equal to PDxEADxLGD. This is used as an add-on for capital charges on OTC derivative contracts (similar to a credit spread on a loan) • ICAAP – Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process • PFE– Potential Future Exposure. This is used to determine the amount of credit that needs to be taken on an OTC derivative transaction (usually and IRS). Two methods used. Add-on and statistical calculation • PD– is the average probability that a counterparty will default at a specific time or during the term of a contract. • EAD- Exposure At Default. This is the value of a financial contract or claim at the time of default. • LGD- Loss Given Default. This is the exposure that a bank will lose if a counterparty defaults. (remember LGD = 1 – recovery rate) © Andre Kurten 2022 Some Essential Abbreviations - 2 CREDIT RISK (CNTD) • CCF- Credit Conversion Factor. Used for standby facilities and letters of credit • CCP – Central Counterparty. A clearing institution that acts as an intermediary between market participants. • EEPE – Effective Expected Positive Exposure. This is the mean (average) of Effective Expected Exposure during the life of OTC derivative contracts. • CDS- Credit Default Swap. A credit protection instrument to protect against the default of a reference asset or borrower. • RWA – Risk weighted assets. LIQUIDITY RISK • LCR– Liquidity Coverage Ratio. Requires banks to hold high quality liquid assets to meet at least 100% of net cash outflows over a 30-day period during a stress scenario. • NSFR – Net Stable Funding Ratio. A longer term structural liquidity ratio. It distinguishes between; • • • ASF - Available Stable Funding (liability side of the banks balance sheet) RSF - Required Stable Funding (asset side of the banks balance sheet) ASF must always be greater than 100% of RSF. © Andre Kurten 2022 Some Essential Abbreviations - 3 LIQUIDITY RISK (CNTD) • BPV- Basis Point Value also know as DV01 or the dollar value of a basis point. This is the change in the value of a security or portfolio for a 1 BP change in interest rates. • HQLA – high quality liquid assets. These are the class of assets a bank must hold under the LCR requirements OPERATIONAL RISK • ORM– Operational Risk Management. A department (required under BASEL) set up to formulate and implement policy for the control of operational risk. • BCP– Business Continuity Plan. This is a logistical plan which allows a bank to return swiftly to normal operations following a disaster or crime. • RSA- Risk Self Assessments. Also sometimes referred to as risk and control self assessments (RCSA). A process where an organisation identifies and assesses their own risks. • KCI– Key Control Indicators. Also sometimes referred to as key risk indicators – KRI. These are early warning signals used to establish the degree to which risks are still occurring and/or how effective controls are. © Andre Kurten 2022 Some Essential Abbreviations - 4 OPERATIONAL RISK (CNTD) • BIA– Basic Indicator Approach. This is one of three capital requirement measurements for operational risk. It is set at 15% of the banks gross profit. • SA- Standardized Approach is the second available method of capital requirement measurements for operational risk. Similar to BIA as a percentage of individual business units profit, but only used if it is lower than BIA. • AMA – Advanced Measurement Approach. The third available method of capital requirement measurements for operational risk. Here the bank uses its own model to determine the capital requirement drawing on a database of at least 3 years history of operational losses. • IFRS- International Financial Reporting Standards © Andre Kurten 2022 Abbreviations Questions 1. What is the primary purpose of trading limits? A. To manage market risk B. To manage operational risk C. To manage legal risk D. All of the above 2. A bilateral netting agreement in the foreign exchange market is: A. A formal agreement between 2 parties to net off all payment due in a single currency for each settlement date. B. A formal agreement between a number of parties to net off all payments due in a single currency for each settlement date C. An informal legal agreement between 2 parties to net off all payments due in a single currency for each settlement date. D. An informal agreement between a number of parties to net off all payments dues in a single currency for each settlement date. 3. Under Basel rules the meaning of CCF is: A. Currency Conversion Factor B. Credit Conversion Factor C. Credit Contribution Factor D. Credit Collateralization Factor 4. Under Basel III rules the meaning of RSF is: A. Reviewed Supervisory Factor B. Required Stable Funding C. Riskless Stable Funding D. Riskless Supervised Funding © Andre Kurten 2022 EXAMINATION PREPARATION BLOCK 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Use the self-study practice exams Post questions on the WhatsApp group Enroll for the exam Take and pass the exam! Study well and study smart! © Andre Kurten 2022