The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets Twelfth Edition Chapter 1 Why Study Money, Banking, and Financial Markets? Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Preview • Examine how financial markets work – bond markets – stock market • Role of financial institutions in the economy – commercial banks and investment banks – asset management and insurance companies • Role of money in the economy – identifying links between monetary policy and the business cycle (expansions, recessions). Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Financial Markets and Institutions • … help transfer funds from economic agents (i.e., households, firms, government, foreigners) who have an excess of available funds to other agents who need funds to finance expenditures – HHs financing housing purchases (mortgages) – Firms financing capital expenditures (corporate bonds, stock issuance, bank loans) – Governments financing budget deficits (Treasury bills/bonds, Eurobonds) Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Flow of Funds Through the Financial System Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Functions of Financial System • Channel funds from savers to borrowers – more efficient allocation of capital • Ease exchange of goods and services by providing means of payment – or provide the liquidity to convert financial assets to the medium of exchange with low cost • Provide insurance, diversification, risk management, consumption smoothing benefits – “Life-cycle”: borrow early in life, pay off mortgage and save for retirement in middle age, dis-save when old. • Provide information (esp. in secondary markets) Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The Bond Market and Interest Rates • A bond is a debt security that promises to make payments periodically for a specified period of time. – Treasury bills, government bonds – Corporate bonds • Interest rate is the (implied) compensation received by the lender for the “rental of funds,” or equivalently, the cost of funding for the borrower. Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Interest Rates on Selected Bonds, 1950–2017 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED database: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TB3MS; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GS10; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAA Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The Stock Market • Stocks/shares/equity represent ownership in a company. • Some corporations sell shares to the public to raise funds and finance their activities – Publicly-traded corporations vs. privately-held – Secondary markets for stocks (stock exchanges) Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Dow Jones Industrial Average, 1950–2017 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED database: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DJIA Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. S&P 500 index, 2012-2021 Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Mutual funds and ETFs • Buying and selling individual stocks can be costly and risky. • Diversify risk through mutual funds or exchange traded funds (ETFs) • Actively-managed funds versus “passive” funds that track a given index Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1-11 Financial Institutions and Banking • Financial intermediaries: – Banks (depository institutions): accept deposits and make loans – Other financial institutions: insurance companies, finance companies, pension funds, mutual funds and investment companies • Financial innovation: the development of new financial products and services – ATMs, e-finance, mortgage-backed securities (MBS) etc. Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Financial Crises • Major disruptions in financial markets that are characterized by sharp declines in asset prices and the failures of many financial and nonfinancial firms. – E.g., Financial crisis of 2007-08 Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Banking crises are common across the world Source: Laeven and Valencia (2010) Banking Crisis Database of IMF Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Money and Monetary Policy • Money plays an important role in facilitating transactions – Medium of exchange role • The amount of money/liquidity available in the economy affects interest rates and asset prices, and is a crucial determinant of business cycles (expansions/recessions). • Monetary theory ties changes in the money supply to changes in aggregate economic activity and to inflation (changes in the overall price level). Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Average Inflation Rate Versus Average Rate of Money Growth for Selected Countries, 2006–2016 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED database: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Aggregate Price Level and the Money Supply in the United States, 1960–2017 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED database: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Low inflation (or deflation) during recent recessions despite large monetary stimulus Money and Interest Rates Short-term • Liquidity effect: increase in money supply reduces the “price” of obtaining funds, thereby lowering short-term interest rates Long-term • Fisher effect: higher money supply (growth) may raise inflationary expectations and inflation, and thereby increase interest rates in the long run Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Money Growth (M2 Annual Rate) and Interest Rates (Long-Term U.S. Treasury Bonds), 1950–2017 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED database: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GS10; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Central Banks • The Federal Reserve and other central banks control the availability of money and credit to ensure low inflation, high growth and stability of the financial system. Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Federal Reserve Board in Washington DC and the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Expansionary monetary policy during recessions Fed’s latest projections “Dot plot” Quantitative Easing following the financial crisis of 2007-8 and the coronavirus pandemic Can interest rates be negative? Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1830 Fiscal Policy • Monetary policy refers to the management of the money supply and interest rates – conducted by central banks (e.g., the Federal Reserve) • Fiscal policy refers to the management of government spending and taxation – Budget deficit is the excess of gov. expenditures over its revenues for a particular year Budget surplus is the excess of gov. revenues over its expenditures for a particular year – Budget deficits must be financed by new borrowing (which adds to government debt) Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Federal Government Budget Surplus or Deficit as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product Source: Economic Report of the President, Table B79 at http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/tables09.html Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Federal Debt projected to grow even higher in the next 30 years Deficits projected to increase over time Foreign Exchange Market • Markets where funds are converted from one currency into another • The foreign exchange rate is the price of one currency in terms of another currency. Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. USD appreciated at the start of the coronavirus crisis, but has depreciated since. Appendix 1: Defining Aggregate Output, Income, the Price Level, and the Inflation Rate Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Real vs. Nominal GDP GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced in a given period in a country. Nominal GDP measures these values using current prices. Real GDP measures these values using the prices of a base year. CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics 38 Real GDP controls for inflation Changes in nominal GDP can be due to: changes in prices changes in quantities of output produced Changes in real GDP captures changes in quantity of output since real GDP is constructed using constant base-year prices. CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics 39 NOW YOU TRY Real and nominal GDP 2015 2016 2017 P Q P Q P Q good A $30 900 $31 1,000 $36 1,050 good B $100 192 $102 200 $100 205 Compute nominal GDP in each year. Compute real GDP in each year using 2015 as the base year. 40 NOW YOU TRY Answers Nominal GDP multiply Ps & Qs from same year 2015: $46,200 = $30 × 900 + $100 × 192 2016: $51,400 2017: $58,300 Real GDP multiply each year’s Qs by 2015 Ps 2015: $46,200 2016: $50,000 2017: $52,000 = $30 × 1050 + $100 × 205 41 Aggregate Price Level • The aggregate price level is a measure of average prices in the economy. • Three measures of the aggregate price level are commonly used: – The GDP deflator – The PCE deflator – The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Copyright © 2019, 2016, 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Calculating the Real Growth Rate and the Inflation rate • Growth rate of Real GDP RGDPt − RGDPt −1 gt = %∆Yt = RGDPt −1 • Inflation rate (using GDP Deflator) Pt − Pt −1 π t = %∆Pt = Pt −1 Business Cycle Fluctuations The GDP deflator, CPI, and PCE deflator