CHILDREN IN AFRICA
Key statistics on child survival and population
Key Statistics
© UNICEF/UN0226463/Bongyereirwe
• Africa’s child population will reach 1 billion by 2055, making it the largest child
population among all continents.
• From 2017 onwards, sub-Saharan Africa is the region with the highest number of
births, and this trend will persist for the rest of the century.
• Based on continuation of current coverage, more than 300 million of Africa’s 730
million projected births through 2030 will not be attended by skilled health personal.
• In Africa, mortality rates among children under age 5 decreased by 58 per cent
between 1990 and 2017, still, over half of the world’s 5.4 million under-five deaths in
2017 occurred in Africa.
• While mortality rates have declined among all age groups in Africa, child deaths
tend to be concentrated at the youngest age groups with 85 per cent of all deaths
to children under age 15 occurring among children younger than 5.
• In 2016, pneumonia, malaria and diarrhoea accounted for 36 per cent of all underfive deaths in Africa.
• On current trends, 31 million under-five deaths will occur in Africa between 2018
and 2030—if all countries at risk of missing the SDG target on under-five mortality
achieved the target, 8 million lives could be saved on the continent.
• Changing demographics and a growing population in Africa will require an additional
4.2 million health workers above current growth to meet WHO minimum standards
and an increase of 1.3 million primary school teachers to meet the best sub-regional
performers’ pupil-teacher ratio by 2030.
Key Fact: Close to half of current population in Africa is under 18, and steady growth in births and declining mortality rates will bring Africa’s
child population to 1 billion by 2055
Africa’s child population will be the largest among all continents in the latter half of this
century, topping 1 billion by 2055
Since 1950, births in Africa have increased almost fourfold, and Africa is projected to
have the largest number of births among all continents after 2050
Fig 1. Total population and children under age 18 in Africa, 1950-2100 (in millions)
Fig 2. Total number of births by region, 1950-2100 (in millions)
100
80
052
011
Africa
110
250
400
600
750
960
1100
230
480
1160 Children Total
population
60
Asia
820
40
1290
1700
2530
4470
1950
1980
2000
2018
2030
2050
2070
Rest of
the world
20
3390
2100
0
1950
1975
2000
2025
2050
2075
2100
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, United Nations, New York, 2017.
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CHILDREN IN AFRICA
Key Fact: The under-five mortality rate for Africa declined by 58 per cent from 1990 to 2017, while mortality among older children and young
adolescents (aged 5-14) in Africa declined by 54 per cent over the same period
Countries with the highest child mortality rates are concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa
Map 1. Under-five mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) by country and number of
under-five deaths by African Union sub-region, 2017
Child mortality declined in all African Union sub-regions between 1990 and 2017
with the largest percentage declines occurring in Northern Africa for under-five
mortality and in Eastern Africa for mortality among children aged 5-14
Fig 3a. Under-five mortality rate by African Union sub-region, 1990 and 2017
Northern Africa
Northern Africa
109,000
75
24
Eastern Africa
Southern Africa
Western Africa
1,226,000
Eastern Africa
718,000
168
58
154
61
Central Africa
90
Western Africa
91
Africa
175
207
165
70
World
0
1990
2017
93
39
50
100
150
200
250
Deaths per 1,000 live births
Central Africa
508,000
Fig 3b. Probability of dying at age 5–14 by African Union sub-region, 1990 and 2017
Deaths per 1,000 live births
0
25
50
75
100
128
Northern Africa
10
4
Eastern Africa
Southern Africa
Southern Africa
333,000
Central Africa
42
26
Western Africa
41
21
16
World
7
0
2
28
13
Africa
Source for all figures on this page: United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) 2018.
46
13
35
15
20
40
Deaths per 1,000 children aged 5
1990
2017
60
Key statistics on child survival and population
Key Fact: The youngest age groups face the highest burden of child deaths: roughly 85 per cent of all deaths under age 15 occurred to children
under age 5 and about 38 per cent of all deaths to children under age 5 occurred in the first month of life
An increasing share of under-five deaths are concentrated among newborns
The risk of dying is highest in the first month of life
Fig 4. Distribution of all under-15 deaths, Africa, 1990-2017
Fig 5. Age-specific mortality rates (deaths per 1,000), Africa, 2017
Young adolescents (ages 10–14)
100%
Older children (ages 5–9)
Young adolescents (ages 10–14)
6
80%
Child (ages 1–4)
Older children (ages 5–9)
10
60%
40%
23
Post-neonatal (1–11 months)
23
Post-neonatal (1–11 months)
32%
20%
Child (ages 1–4)
24%
Neonatal (first 28 days)
0%
1990
1995
Neonatal (first 28 days)
2000
2005
2010
26
2015 2017
Source for figures 4 and 5: United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) 2018.
Infectious diseases and neonatal complications are among the leading causes of
death among children under age 5
As mortality levels decline with age, injuries become a more prominent cause of
death among older children and adolescents
Fig 6. Distribution of causes of all under-five deaths, Africa, 2016
Fig 7. Distribution of deaths among children and adolescents, by age group and
cause, 2016
Deaths among children
aged 1-59 months
Pneumonia, 3%
Pneumonia, 14%
Neonatal deaths
Preterm
birth
complications,
11%
15 -19
10 -14
Intrapartum-related
events, 11%
Other, 13%
Congenital, 3%
Intrapartum-related
events, 1%
Preterm birth
complications, 2%
Meningitis, 2%
AIDS, 2%
5 -9
Sepsis or
meningitis, 6%
Malaria,
10%
Diarrhoea,
9%
Injury,
6%
24%
49%
56%
67%
Congenital, 3%
Tetanus, 0.5%
Diarrhoea, 0.2%
13%
84%
9%
20%
21%
0 -4
Other, 2%
Injury, 0.4%
19%
19%
10%
Communicable, maternal, perinatal and nutritional conditions
Unintentional injuries
Noncommunicable diseases
Intentional injuries
4%
1%
6% 0.3%
Measles, 1%
Source: World Health Organization and Maternal and Child Epidemiology Estimation Group (MCEE), Child
causes of death, by Country and by Region, 2000-2016, WHO, Geneva, 2018.
Source: World Health Organization, Global Health Estimates 2016: Deaths by cause, age, sex, by country
and by region, 2000-2016, WHO, Geneva, 2018.
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CHILDREN IN AFRICA
Key statistics on child survival and population
Key Fact: Africa will need to add millions more health workers and primary school teachers by 2030 to meet the demands of shifting demographics
Africa will need an additional 4.2 million health workers
above its current rate of growth to meet the WHO
minimum standards for frontline skilled health personnel
by 2030
More than 11 million primary school teachers will be
needed in 2030 to meet the best sub-regional performers’
pupil-teacher ratio
Based on the continuation of current coverage, more
than 300 million of Africa’s 730 million projected births
through 2030 will not be attended by skilled health
personnel
Fig 8. Number of health service providers (doctors, nurses,
midwives) for each scenario for Africa total (in millions) and
by African Union sub-region (in thousands)
Fig 9. Primary school teachers for each scenario for Africa total
(in millions) and by African Union sub-region (in thousands)
Fig 10. Cumulative births from 2015-2030 by skilled birth
attendants for Africa total (in millions) and by African Union
sub-region (in thousands)
7.6
3.4
Africa
11.2
Africa
6.7
Africa
0
5.4
2
420
100
310
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Births (in millions)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Number of health workers (in millions)
7
8
0
2
4
6
8
10
Number of primary school teachers (in millions)
2900
2280
Western Africa
1000
550
Western Africa
1600
1070
Southern Africa
440
2100
Southern Africa
900
800
480
Eastern Africa
390
840
3700
Eastern Africa
1400
930
Central Africa
170
2000
2500
Health worker need in 2030
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Number of primary school teachers (in thousands)
3000
3500
100
150
200
250
4000
Teacher need in 2030
Projected number of health workers in 2030
Projected number of teachers in 2030
Number of health workers in 2015
Number of teachers in 2015
Note: For countries who already have a density of 4.45 the current
value is maintained. Data from 2000 to 2015 was used for estimation.
No health workforce data were available for South Sudan, hence the
sub-region’s average density was assumed.
Note: For missing values of pupil/teacher ratios in Libya, Sudan
and Somalia the sub-regional average was used. Best sub-regional
performers’ pupil/teacher ratio: Central Africa: 23; Eastern Africa: 19;
Northern Africa: 17; Southern Africa: 23; Western Africa: 22.
Source: UNICEF analysis based on the World Health Organization, The
2017 update, The Global Health Workforce Statistics, WHO, Geneva,
2017 and United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
Population Division, Word Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision,
United Nations, New York, 2017.
Source: UNICEF analysis based UNESCO Institute for Statistics global
databases, 2016, based on administrative data for the most recent
year available during 2009-2016, and United Nations, Department of
Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Word Population
Prospects: The 2017 Revision, United Nations, New York, 2017.
4
50
Births without skilled birth attendant
700
1500
0
110
30
Births with skilled birth attendant
900
Central Africa
72
Births (in thousands)
1500
370
0
500
1000
Number of health workers (in thousands)
1700
8
110
Central Africa
2270
Eastern Africa
29
72
Northern Africa
1600
1100
900
130
68
Southern Africa
1070
Northern Africa
110
Western Africa
1600
620
610
Northern Africa
12
Note: Most recent skilled birth attendance country values available for
the period 2010-2016.
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UNICEF global databases, 2016,
based on DHS, MICS, and other nationally representative surveys and
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population
Division, Word Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, United Nations,
New York, 2017.