Haney 1 Mercosur and the Adoption Of Industry 4.0 Technologies in LATAM Nations Isaac Haney Azusa Pacific University Address: 901 E Alosta Ave Azusa, CA 91702 Isaachaney21@apu.edu 15 December 2023 Haney 2 Abstract The Southern Common Market (Mercosur) is currently one of the world’s largest trade blocs. The union has been credited for advancing Latin America’s (LATAM) trade through inter and intra-regional rulings. For LATAM, countries have historically experienced difficulties optimizing manufacturing and economic performance has struggled in conjunction. Industry 4.0 is a term referring to the adoption of technologies that optimize the manufacturing process: automation, cloud computing, artificial intelligence (AI), etc.; it has been seen as a means for nations to boost economies and competition on the global stage. Mercosur nations embracing Industry 4.0 have been observed to have higher outputs and more robust economies than those that have not. Past Mercosur actions such as relaxations on foreign tariffs and Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) recruitment have led to increases in technology adoption as well as efficiency-seeking behaviors in the economy. It's proposed that Mercosur repeat these practices with a focus on Industry 4.0 integration for regional advancement. Potential barriers would be lack of governmental support and Industry 4.0 exacerbating LATAM’s existing inequalities. This research aims to provide insight on the impact of trade unions on developing nations concerning the adoption of emerging technologies, a subject seldom addressed regarding LATAM. Keywords: Mercosur, Industry 4.0, LATAM, emerging markets, technology adoption, multinational enterprises Haney 3 Introduction Manufacturing accounts for roughly 16% of global gross domestic product (GDP); of the nations that contribute to this value, the majority come from Asia (World Bank Open Data, 2023). Given Asia’s longstanding reputation as a hub for the supply chains of multinational enterprises (MNEs) all over the world, this comes as no surprise. However, the ability to outproduce does not come from a hardworking culture or foreign investment alone: the region leads the world in emerging technologies used in manufacturing (Diego, 2022). This means the use of automation, artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, etc. in operations which enable an increased output and greatly optimizes the production process (Raj et al., 2020). The use of such technologies in manufacturing has been dubbed Industry 4.0 or the “Fourth Industrial Revolution” (Yadav et al., 2020) and has been directly tied to improving the financial standing of developing nations (Torres Jarrín & Daza Aramayo, 2023). Juxtaposed by Asia’s success, a region that has historically lagged when it comes to development of the manufacturing industry is Latin America (LATAM). Latin America is a term referring to lands south of the United States in the Western hemisphere, also referred to as the Spanish, Portuguese, and French-speaking Americas (Encyclopedia Britannica, n.d.). The region’s manufacturing GDP is a fraction of those observed in Asia, Europe, and the United States and this ratio has stayed relatively stable for decades (World Bank Open Data, 2023). Additionally, LATAM trails these regions when it comes to the integration of technologies used to aid manufacturing (Diego, 2022). While there are many factors that can be argued as to why this may be, the integration of production technologies associated with Industry 4.0 may be able Haney 4 to compensate for the region’s historically trailing manufacturing performance and perhaps stimulate the wider economies (Raj et al., 2020). One of the more effective trade unions worldwide happens to be located in LATAM, known as Mercosur. This trade bloc oversees intra-regional and inter-regional trade for member nations and its’ ruling has led to economic growth for the region (Mukhametdinov, 2007); the union has grown to be one of the largest in the world in terms of GDP (Council on Foreign Relations, 2023). Mercosur has been shown to take action to encourage trends within its manufacturing sector in the past (Ojomo, 2023), but has taken a lax approach to the subject for the most part. Taking into account LATAM’s low adoption rate of Industry 4.0 and the resulting loss of economic value (Alvarez et al., 2013), it would be in Mercosur’s best interest to begin promoting the integration of such technologies; other trade blocs around the world have taken actions in alignment with this belief, the European Union (EU) has taken direct measures to expand Industry 4.0 due to observed financial success (Castelo-Branco et al., 2019). While there has been past research conducted on the ways in which individual LATAM nations can adopt Industry 4.0 technologies given past examples, there has yet to be research on Mercosur’s role in technology adoption for the region as a whole. Additionally, trade is an area of research seldom addressed regarding Industry 4.0: given LATAM’s dysfunctional trade performance relative to the rest of the world (Moreau & Parente, 2023) the current research hopes to provide insight on this subject as well. In a time where the world is becoming further globalized through technology, research on emerging markets and adoption trends is incredibly valuable. State Of Manufacturing In Latin America Haney 5 A region rich in resources has shown mixed results in turning those materials into products to send to the market. Manufacturing contributed to 15.7% of Latin American GDP in 2022, while it was the second-largest contributor for the region, it was far outweighed by the service industry which created 57.5% of GDP (IDB Invest, 2023). Goods exports in LATAM experienced double-digit growth in both 2021 and 2022, the primary reason for this increase has been credited to global raw material shortages and supply chain issues forcing the shift; this increase in exports does not indicate an increase in manufacturing ability, only an increase in demand (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2023). While there are many variations between the nations of this region, the generality is that it has a sizeable manufacturing industry but has historically not been able to capitalize on it in the same way other regions have. This is further supported by statistics regarding the development of the workforce in the region. Manufacturing accounts for 12.8% of LATAM’s employment but the workforce has stagnated in comparison to other regions: from 2000 to 2019, China’s workforce expanded by 96%, USA by 64%, whereas LATAM only grew by 24% (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2021). Industry 5.0, a recent movement centered around human-centric, intuitive technologies to aid in manufacturing may present as a potential solution for regions without a skilled workforce to utilize complex technologies (Groumpos, 2021); but such a goal would difficult given that the Industry 4.0 adoption has been sparse in LATAM (Herrero-Solana & Piedra-Salomón, 2022). There are infrastructure and wider political reasons that may account for this, but the fact is that the region does not develop people in the same way that other, higher producing, areas have. There is the intuition that the region would compensate for the lack of human capital to support in manufacturing and there are mixed data to suggest that the region is evolving to meet Haney 6 this need. Currently, LATAM displays a 19% lower adoption of technologies to aid in manufacturing than middle-income Asian countries (Diego, 2022); which nations with these technologies outproduce LATAM. But technological adoption is on its way, albeit gradually. Chile is the most digitalized country in the region with relevance to manufacturing, Brazil showing up as second-most connected, and Argentina a few spots behind; Mexico is the country that shows the most promise, ranking 22nd in the world for current technology adoption; this integration is credited to account for a 40% increase in added value for the country’s manufacturing (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2021). It just so happens that that the nations with the highest digital adoption in the region also have the highest manufacturing output: Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina account for 80% of LATAM manufacturing (Russell, 2021). The takeaway from these numbers is that advanced technology integration into manufacturing is vital if the region is to be competitive on the global stage. Industry 4.0 and the Developing World Industry 4.0, otherwise known as the “fourth industrial revolution,” is an area of research centered around the integration of artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), cloud computing, and other advanced technologies into production processes and the impact that these have on manufacturing (Raj et al., 2020). The transition that comes from introducing these technologies is an increase in automation: benefits are believed to result from this such as potential increases in output and compensation in the competitive sense for manufacturers, and regions, who lack human capital (Yadav et al., 2020). With relevance to LATAM, manufacturing is the region’s second-largest employer (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2021) yet only contributes nearly of third of what China does to global GDP, despite having a similar amount of people employed in manufacturing (Álvarez, 2022). Haney 7 The advanced technologies are what enables the juxtaposition here as a place like China is able to do more with the same amount of human capital. Asia leads the world in 4.0 adoption, and there is clear data to show the monetary value it brings to the region (Figure 1). The value added through manufacturing connects with regional GDP growth (World Bank Open Data, 2023. Africa and LATAM’s slow digital adoption has led to an obvious value deficit (Diego, 2022). While there are many factors that can be the reason behind this, the sentiment is that overall value is increased due to these new advancements. Statistics like Industry 4.0 technologies has been shown to increase production efficiency by 40-55% (Raj et al., 2020) point towards the fact that the technological stagnation shown in the region is only putting it farther behind globally on the manufacturing stage. Figure 1. Added manufacturing value per region (Diego, 2022) In theory, adopting Industry 4.0 technologies is an instinctive action to increase manufacturing capabilities and to be more future-oriented; but practically, there is a great deal of Haney 8 infrastructure, capital, and other related requirements needed for this to occur. Only 14% of CEOs worldwide believe that their business has the ability to integrate Industry 4.0 technologies (Raj et al., 2020). It can be reasoned that the process of procuring, training, and ultimately using these tools would require a substantial transformation for a business to undertake and one where the outcome is ambiguous. Organizations within developing nations have been shown to be reluctant to adopt technologies associated with Industry 4.0 due to “mistrust:” this belief is understandable as roughly 60% of the current jobs in LATAM are currently able to be replaced by automation (Atieh et al., 2022). This does give way for an argument to be made for Industry 5.0 adoption, as these technologies are seen as more intuitive and not as employee replacements (Groumpos, 2021). Nonetheless, the feedback from leadership suggests that recruiting support for integrating these technologies, aside from capital/infrastructure concerns, is a hurdle in itself. Mexico As An Exemplar Nation Mexico leads in 4.0 integration, mainly attributed to US investment (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2021) so this gesture cannot be credited as solely coming from within the country. Still the ways in which the country has adopted these technologies can serve as guidance for other LATAM nations: the working population has shown to be less knowledgeable on industry 4.0 technologies than western workers, so engineering efforts have focused on making such tools more intuitive and easier to use (Casalet, 2023). This has also given way to an Industry 5.0 boom in the country in the form of applications and sensors, tools that emphasize human interpretation and less of an understanding of how they work (Medina et al., 2022). Only 8% of the Mexican manufacturing workforce is at high risk of being replaced by automation as most of the 4.0 technologies currently used optimize/increase production and are not worker substitutes (Ramos et al., 2022). In the agricultural and food Haney 9 processing industry, adoption and widespread practice of the technologies has been shown to be regionally influenced: Mexico’s Northern population is more apt to utilize these technologies, the believed reason being due to businesses in this region more often practicing international business than Southern states (Vargas-Canales, 2023). Extrapolating to other LATAM countries, regions with more foreign investment and more global interaction may be the initial adopters of 4.0 technologies, and the working population may have a higher aptitude to begin with. MERCOSUR The Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) is a trade coalition of LATAM countries created to promote economic and business cooperation across borders, with the intention to increase the economic strength of the region overall (Mercosur, 2023). As of 2023, the nations that comprise the Mercosur trade bloc are Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, Brazil, as well as six other associated nations who are located within LATAM (Mercosur, 2023). It has been praised for some years now due to the efficiency of the bloc when in comparison to other organizations on the global stage, comparable to the EU and even superior to it in some aspects (Mukhametdinov, 2007). What Mercosur does is establish common rules and practices regarding trade between nations, as well as create a competitively integrate aspects of each nation’s economy into the best interests of the trade bloc (Mercosur, 2023). The work of Mercosur has attracted an influx of investment from MNEs seeking to get into business within the region: MNE investment has increased since Mercosur’s inception and technology adoption has risen in these nations with more MNE investment (Alvarez et al., 2013). Mercosur has not historically dedicated efforts towards promoting the technology industry and its development, the most attention on this subject has been sent towards automotive manufacturing (Ojomo, 2023). As the research currently stands, there is not much Haney 10 that has been written about regarding Mercosur’s implications on the technology used in manufacturing and in the production of technology itself, the focus of the existing research has been on what has been observed in the individual nations but not the union as a whole. However, there exists considerable research on other trade unions and the impact that advanced technologies have on them: for the EU, countries that have integrated 4.0 technologies outproduce nations that have not done so and trade deals have been implemented throughout the union to promote the adoption of such technologies (Castelo-Branco et al., 2019). Given the recent election of Javier Milei as Argentina’s leader at the end of 2023 and his proclamation in achieving an EU-Mercosur trade agreement (Valero, 2023), research on Mercosur’s lack of regard for this seldom-addressed subject is significant in that it may lead to a prompting of the bloc to begin promoting 4.0 integration. 4.0 Technology Within Mercosur The group is led by Brazil and Argentina, Brazil being the eleventh largest economy in in the world and the largest in LATAM (Brazil economic outlook, October 2023, 2023). The majority of tech products produced in the Mercosur bloc come from Brazil and Argentina, with far more products being traded to foreign nations than intra-Mercosur trade, as the nations within the bloc express little interest in the products (Alvarez et al., 2013); additionally, the point should be made that Brazil and Argentina also bolster the majority of MNEs operating within South America (Alvarez et al., 2013). Research examining the differences in the tariffs set by Mercosur between industries found that industries with lower tariffs are to faster to adopt and integrate more technologies in their production (Bustos, 2011); what was also observed were higher in these industries than industries with higher tariffs. Of LATAM countries in total, the industry where 4.0 adoption has been most prevalent is in the automotive sector (IDB Invest, 2023: one Haney 11 attributed reason for this advancement has been due to increased electronic vehicle (EV) pressures in recent years and the need to produce more complex technologies. Brazil has shown the highest amount of patent citations which showcases an intent to adopt new technologies (Herrero-Solana & Piedra-Salomón, 2022), although following through on this effort has been mixed. Brazil is the only Mercosur member to dedicate 1% of GDP to technological research and development, dwarfing the budget of many LATAM nations by nearly 3 times (Alvarez et al., 2013). It’s the country that leads the Mercosur pack when it comes to 4.0 technology adoption, increasing by roughly 11% yearly (IndustryARC, n.d.). With this said, past research concluded that the country is most accurately characterized by existing in a transition phase between Industry 2.0 & 3.0 due to technology complexities, which has spurred support for Industry 5.0 adoption due to its human-centric approach (Pereira & dos Santos, 2023). One reason for the high rate of technology adoption compared to peers may come due to the different approach that the country takes when it comes to tariffs: Brazil began reducing trade tariffs in different industries and directly observed 10% increases in technology adoption (Bustos, 2011). Brazil has only recently emerged from “developing country” status and is still some years behind from being a dominant producer on the global stage, but findings from Tortorella et al. (2021) suggest that the country is fully able to implement automated production in all manufacturing stages despite lower socioeconomic resources than more developed nations. As for Argentina, the most 4.0 technology-integrated industry is Information technologies, whereas manufacturing accounts for the least integrated industry within the country (Salimbeni, 2021). It has been argued that manufacturers have been averse to adopt new technologies here because of the new problems that can potentially be brought about through them, as well as a lack of support infrastructure post-adoption (Ascúa, 2021). One potential Haney 12 reason for the lag in adoption is a lack of governmental interest, as reported by business leaders from the country (Gutnisky et al., 2022). Javier Milie’s recent election has led many to infer that Argentina will seek to recruit MNE investment to support its industries (Valero, 2023), attention will likely be paid towards adopting emerging technolgies. Argentina’s automotive industry has recently began integrating smart technologies into manufacturing following a relaxation on trade tariffs that led to increased foreign consumption (Dulcich, 2023). Results such as this could serve as a model for other fellow Mercosur countries, suggesting that relaxations on certain tariffs would lead industries to modernization. The nation scores a 2.49 out of 5 on the Industry 4.0 scale, indicating a halfway stage of development (Salimbeni, 2021) so there is certainly room for improvement. Routes To Industry 4.0 Integration Within Mercosur Because Mercosur was initially formed to create economic strength between the countries involved (Mercosur, 2023), attention should be given towards the impact that economics has on technology adoption. Work done by Lorne & Yang (2019) found that revenue-maximizing import tariffs, enacted to promote consumption of domestic products, do little to stimulate technological advancement in domestic manufacturing; progress stagnates due to a lack of foreign pressure. It may seem counterintuitive to offer foreign products at lower prices to stimulate domestic prosperity, but the increased trade has implications on technology adoption. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, relaxations of tariffs of industries in Asian countries stimulated global demand prompted an increase in automation, attributed due to the workforce not being able to support the demand (Seric & Winkler, 2020). In the same way that such decreases in tariffs improved 4.0 integration in Argentina’s automotive sector (Dulcich, 2023), expanding this rationale to other industries may have a similar effect. What can be reasoned from Haney 13 past findings is 4.0 technology integration may be able to be prompted through tariff relaxations within the Mercosur bloc, as well as cultivate relationships with foreign economies through these low import tariffs. Tying in with the theme of promoting 4.0 adoption through building a larger international network, we look at the businesses themselves. The work done by Agostini & Nosella (2020) found that enterprises containing high management support were more likely to adopt 4.0 technologies in manufacturing. This finding, paired with research on the high level of management engagement observed in MNEs (Meyer et al., 2020) indicate that focusing on attracting such businesses would lead to increased 4.0 adoption, as seen in Brazil and Argentina (Alvarez et al., 2013). Mercosur has liberalized trade to encourage agreements with MNEs of different sectors in the past (Bengoa et al., 2020), so it can be reasoned that this can again be done with a focus on manufacturing. The industries that would likely receive the most focus on would be information technologies and the automotive sectors, as these have high MNE representation within LATAM and been shown to increase R&D investments following relaxations on tariffs (Grosse, 2019). The mere presence of MNEs leads to increases in efficiency-seeking behaviors within a domestic economy (Alvarez et al., 2013), suggesting that MNE recruitment may have a positive impact on the wider economy in addition to technology adoption in manufacturing. Barriers To Industry 4.0 Integration Into Mercosur Figure 2 outlines the several potential barriers that have been observed so far in regards to Industry 4.0 adoption: the point of emphasis is that each dimension acts on each other, solving for one means that multiple issues must be addressed (Karadayi-Usta, 2019). During the initial stages of integrating emerging technologies, the most immediate points of obstruction comes Haney 14 from the population to utilize it and the governing systems who have the power to regulate it. The group immediately impacted by widespread 4.0 technology adoption is unskilled workers. One argument against the integration of such technologies is that it would exacerbate the already high levels of inequality observed in LATAM (Gasparini et al., 2020). The skilled workers would be elevated to even higher regard and the unskilled would be left taskless at their current skill level. This speaks to a wider problem regarding education and exposing the wider population to more advanced technologies. This has given way for the argument for Industry 5.0 before 4.0 adoption in the developing world: the technologies are made to aid human production with less of a focus on replacing workers (Groumpos, 2021). Even in sectors that have the resources to adopt 4.0 technologies there is apprehension to do so due to lack of familiarity: a survey conducted among Argentine leaders found that the largest perceived current barriers against Industry 4.0 adoption are the technologies being too complex for use and lack of public policy to support (Gutnisky et al., 2022). The observed lack of support for advanced technologies in LATAM would also prevent nations and companies from adoption. A frequently reported barrier from Industry 4.0 adoption in countries worldwide is a lack of coordination between businesses and their domestic governments (Raj et al., 2020). Despite Mexico’s credit for being a highly Industry 4.0 integrated nation, there is a broad range in production capabilities within the regions of the country (Vargas-Canales, 2023). Overall, the discrepancy between what each nation, and business, is capable of adopting and Mercosur’s ability to regulate may to non-adoption altogether. Figure 2. Haney 15 Display of observed barriers to Industry 4.0 adoption (Karadayi-Usta, 2019) Discussion In roughly three decades, Mercosur has risen to become the fourth largest trade bloc and fifth largest economy worldwide (Galović, 2022). Being a part of this group has increased the economic value for its respective members and strengthened intra-regional trade (Mukhametdinov, 2007), but its lack of attention towards technology can be seen as a reason for the region’s lag in global manufacturing (Diego, 2022). Technologies associated with Industry 4.0 have been shown to substantially increase manufacturing capabilities (Raj et al., 2020), and have been shown to compensate in production for regions who lack skilled labor (Yadav et al., 2020). The manufacturing success of Asia can be attributed in part by its emphasis on technological integration in production: the region is currently the global leader in 4.0 technology adoption (Diego, 2022). The argument is made for Mercosur to promote the use of such technologies within its bloc through re-evaluations of tariffs and MNE recruitment. Brazil holds the largest manufacturing industry within the Mercosur group (Tortorella et al., 2021) as well as the highest Haney 16 rate of 4.0 adoption (Herrero-Solana & Piedra-Salomón, 2022). Relaxations in foreign tariffs have directly led to technology upgrades in manufacturing (Bustos, 2011). Taking this observation paired with what was seen from Argentina’s increase in Smart manufacturing following relaxations on foreign imports in the automotive industry (Dulcich, 2023), it can be reasoned that decreasing taxation of foreign products may lead to an expansion of industry 4.0 into Mercosur countries. Closely linked to this is the proposal to increase recruitment of MNEs within Mercosur borders as high MNE investment has been associated with high levels of 4.0 integration (Alvarez et al., 2013). The presence of MNEs within the manufacturing sector of a nation has been shown to increase technological development (Grosse, 2019) so increasing foreign presence may be the impulse to stimulate 4.0 integration and overall economic prosperity. Limitations Past research on Mercosur and its relation to technology is very limited, and there was no previous information provided on Mercosur’s relevance to Industry 4.0 technologies. Additionally, research that focused on Mercosur’s rulings related to manufacturing was sparse as most of the focus centered around what is imported versus exported (Delbianco et al., 2020). Herrero-Solana & Piedra-Salomón (2022) highlight that there was only one comprehensive paper examining Industry 4.0 and LATAM as a whole prior to their research, further illustrating the void in its relation to Mercosur. There exists research on specific countries, but no research on the group’s trade and its relationship with Industry 4.0. It is intuited that since there is research on Industry 4.0’s interaction with other trade blocs seen throughout the world (Castelo-Branco et al., 2019), that more exploration on this subject would be valuable. The more intricate details regarding Mercosur’s trade regulation and tariffs were also scarce, as the main source of Haney 17 information being Mercosur’s main site (Mercosur, 2023) and research done by Bengoa et al. (2020) examining the monetary effects of trade deals for LATAM as a whole. Future Research In light of the observation that tariff relaxations in both Brazil and Argentina led to the adoption of advanced manufacturing technologies (Bustos, 2011; Dulcich, 2023), further research examining how similar measures apply to other Mercosur nations may be valuable. Reasons have been presented such as the decrease in imports led to an increase in access to foreign advanced technology (Grosse, 2019), or that the decrease created a need to produce more/more efficiently due to the rise of foreign competition (Alvarez et al., 2013). As noted above, research has shown that Mercosur has made little effort to adopt industry 4.0 (Gutnisky et al., 2022), a literature review examining why this attention has been stifled or other reasons is a topic worth investigating. Last, due to a critique against industry 4.0 adoption being that technology may be too difficult to use in LATAM (Raj et al., 2020), research on Industry 5.0’s fit within the region should be explored as it is often-presented as offering more intuitive technologies (Pereira & dos Santos, 2023); as well no such work has yet to be presented on this topic for the region. Conclusion This research argues that the adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies is essential for LATAM to be a competitive region on the global stage. Manufacturing is a major part of the LATAM economy but has historically underperformed (Álvarez, 2022) and focused on noncomplex production (IDB Invest, 2023). Being that Mercosur is a major regulatory body in the region regarding trade and product adoption (Galović, 2022), it would be in the best interest of this group to dedicate focus to integrating these technologies via relaxations of trade and the Haney 18 recruitment of MNEs. These actions may lead to an increase in 4.0 adoption which can compensate for areas where human capital is lacking (Yadav et al., 2020), allow for the production of more complex goods (Raj et al., 2020), and have the potential to increase the production capabilities for Mercosur countries (Álvarez, 2022). In total, these developments can be used as a means for Mercosur to grow economically and increase its competition on the global stage. Haney 19 References Agostini, L., & Nosella, A. (2019). The adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies in SMEs: results of an international study. Management Decision, 58(4), 625–643. https://doi.org/10.1108/md-09-2018-0973. Alvarez, I., Fischer, B., & Miguel, J. (2013, April 1). Internationalization and technology in MERCOSUR. https://repositorio.cepal.org/items/c6311dcf-cf78-4253-94accda8083b014e. Álvarez, J. P. (2022, September 22). Latin America’s Contribution to Global GDP Declines By One-Third Over the Past Decade. Bloomberg Línea. 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