UEA POLICY BREIF: ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND NATURAL RESOURCES May 2020 EVALUATE THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF OFFSHORE WIND ENERGY AND ITS INFRASTRUCTURE. reduce the upfront cost and subsequently improve market competitiveness. Offshore wind policy focusses on national costs and benefits SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES The UK’s global role in climate change mitigation The UK must reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050 in order to comply with the recently amended Climate Change Act 2008 (CCC, 2008; BEIS, 2019a). This is essential for avoiding the irreversible effects of climate change if global temperatures increase more than 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels (UNFCCC, 2015). The distribution of electricity through the National Grid has enabled the UK’s energy supply to transition away from carbonintensive power generation (such as coal power stations) to more renewable energy sources in recent decades, in order to meet emissions reduction targets. Wind power is the UK’s largest source of renewable energy, and uses onshore and offshore turbines to generate 14GW and 8GW of electricity respectively, without emitting greenhouse gases (BEIS, 2019b). The present-day cost of abating greenhouse gas emissions (by increasing renewable energy capacity) is higher than the present-day cost of taking no action and continuing to rely on fossil fuels (Smith, 2011). Therefore, the government incentivises growth in wind energy capacity by granting access to Crown Land in coastal waters, and applying subsidies to 100123884 The Offshore Wind Sector Deal seeks to increasing the UK’s offshore wind capacity to 30GW by 2030 (BEIS, 2019c) out of a current total 73GW of electricity generating capacity (Ofgem, 2019). The deal subsidises offshore wind developments up until 2030; after which time, the expected cost reductions from economies of scale and technological efficiencies will allow the sector to be competitive independent from any market regulation. This approach aims to create a ‘policy doubledividend’ by providing both economic and environmental positive impacts (Allan et al., 2020) in line with the government’s Industrial Strategy (BEIS, 2017). However, it could be argued that government policy lacks the consideration of both positive and negative externalities at a local level, and that these should be taken into account in future cost benefit analyses (CBA). Visual disamenity of offshore turbines carries a social cost The visual impact of offshore wind turbines is a key externality which should be considered in a CBA. Stated preference method (SPM) studies, such as Ladenburg et al. (2020), sample 1754 households in Denmark and reveal an annual willingness to pay (WTP) of up to £10.62 (KR.89) per property to locate turbines an additional 12km offshore. As well as impacting local residents, visual disamenity of offshore turbines can have a 1451 words negative economic effect on coastal tourism. For example, in a 2017 choice experiment with 65 tourists in the USA, Fooks et al. find a WTP of £8.18 ($10.10) more for a weekend hotel room if it did not overlook a wind turbine. Despite these WTP trends among households and tourists, there is comparatively little evidence to suggest that offshore wind impacts coastal property value. Another Denmark study concludes that turbines more than 9km offshore have no impact on coastal property prices (Jensen et al., 2018). Whilst a small proportion of the UK’s existing offshore wind capacity is closer than 9km to the coast, technological advances mean almost all future installations will surpass this distance (Vieira et al., 2019). Given the similar trends in public acceptance of offshore wind energy in Western European countries, a comparable result can be expected from UK households as those shown in Denmark (Prässler and Schaechtele, 2012). Mitigating impacts of infrastructure bears local benefits The impact of infrastructure should also be carefully considered in a CBA, given that offshore wind energy requires comparatively more cabling than substitute energy sources; fossil fuel power stations are more spatially concentrated than wind farms and domestic solar power can utilise existing residential infrastructure when supplying the National Grid through feed-in tariffs (Green and Vasilakos, 2011). Additionally, onshore turbines require less cabling and can be located closer to load centres, which enables transmission infrastructure to be up to 50% less expensive than offshore turbines (Hevia-Koch and Klinge Jacobsen, 2019). 100123884 The need for extensive cabling to connect offshore turbines to the National Grid can cause similar visual disamenity impacts as the turbines themselves, when transmitted as overhead power lines. Revealed preference studies show that a 50 metre proximity to electricity pylons can reduce property value in the UK by up to 23.6% when analysed using the hedonic pricing method (HPM) (Sims et al., 2009). Therefore, a common mitigation technique is to invest in buried cabling to abate the social costs of visual disamenity and improve public acceptance (Lienert et al., 2018). This approach also reduces costs associated with power outages, maintenance and transmission losses (Al-Khalidi and Kalam, 2006). A CBA should also consider welfare externalities of underground infrastructure. Box 1 provides an example of how these costs are mitigated. Box 1 - CASE STUDY: Reducing capital costs and increasing social benefits associated with underground energy infrastructure in Finland. Residential consultations enabled Elenia Group (Finland’s second largest electricity distributer) to identify the social cost of overhead power lines. In response, the company partnered with local telecommunications networks and co-constructed fibre-optic cables during the installation of their underground transmission cables. Improved internet speeds provide a social benefit to Finland’s rural communities, as well as reducing Elenia’s capital costs. This approach enabled the company to increase its total underground transmission from 38% to 41% of its total electricity network in 2017 (Elenia Group, 2018). SOURCE: ELENIA GROUP 1451 words Technological innovations can help to mitigate environmental externalities Floating wind turbines installed further offshore (as exemplified in Box 2) incur higher capital costs, but the subsequent benefits should also be considered when determining viability using CBA. Box 2 - CASE STUDY: Floating wind turbines in the North Sea. Hywind Scotland is the world’s first economically viable array of floating offshore wind turbines. Deeper waters allow the turbines to operate at capacity 65% over time, higher than the average 40-60% of fixed turbines, providing a stronger return on investment (Hill, 2018). Recent studies show this approach can also abate higher transmission costs of deep water turbines by producing onboard hydrogen energy (Ioannou and Brennan, 2019) but this technology could not compete with renewable electricity substitutes. (Castro-Santos et al., 2020). Additionally, the ability to construct turbines in deeper water reduces costs associated with visual disamenity in coastal areas (Vieira et al., 2019; Ladenburg et al., 2020). Anticipated changes in costs and benefits over time Carbon emissions offset from renewable electricity generation (comparative to fossil fuel substitutes) are valued using the EU Emissions Trading System to give a numerical indication of the social cost of carbon (BEIS, 2018). These costs increase annually with a discount rate of 3.8%, as shown in Table 1. Table 1: BEIS updated short-term traded sector carbon values for policy appraisal (£/tCO2e) (BEIS, 2018) Research suggests that floating turbines could provide a substantial of the UK’s offshore wind capacity by 2030 (Michalakakis and Miller, 2019). SOURCE: STATOIL A combination of positive and negative impacts of fixed-foundation turbines on marine ecosystems makes it difficult to quantify externality costs and benefits of floating structures (Snyder and Kaiser, 2008). For example, traditional fixed turbines may obstruct migration routes for marine mammals, but provide artificial coral habitats to smaller fish, which could have a positive impact on fish populations. Research suggests floating turbines will reduce the environmental cost of ecosystem disturbance during construction 100123884 In addition, other externality costs are likely to increase over time (Zerrahn, 2017) such as a growth in the UK’s coastal tourism, or inflating property prices, which may increase WTP to mitigate visual disamenity. In contrast, capital costs are expected to reduce as a result of technological efficiencies and further commercialisation of new technologies (BEIS, 2019c; Michalakakis and Miller, 2019). Therefore, it could be argued that discount factors should be applied to capital costs in longer term CBA to compensate these differential cost changes, which should help to realise the Offshore Wind Sector Deal’s vision of reducing subsidies by 2030. 1451 words Concluding implications for future policy based on CBA BEIS (2019c). Offshore wind Sector Deal. Available at gov.uk/government/publications/offshore-wind-sectordeal/offshore-wind-sector-deal (Accessed 28th March 2020). Externalities lie outside of market transactions, meaning not all costs and benefits of offshore wind energy are considered. Energy corporations may justify a lack of consideration for externalities by referring to the offshore wind sector’s inherent complexity (Siemens, 2019, p.52). However, this can be overcome by interdisciplinary working: consolidating knowledge from economics, ecology, engineering, geography and public health (Martin-Ortega et al., 2017; Zerrahn, 2017). This comprehensive approach should shape future policy appraisal of offshore wind energy and its infrastructure, to enable government intervention in order to internalise these externalities. Castro-Santos, L., Bento, A., Silva, D., Salvação, N. and Guedes Soares, C. (2020). Economic Feasibility of Floating Offshore Wind Farms in the North of Spain. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 8(1), p.58. References Hevia-Koch, P. and Klinge Jacobsen, H. (2019). Comparing offshore and onshore wind development considering acceptance costs. Energy Policy, 125, pp.9-19. Al-Khalidi, H. and Kalam, A. (2006). The Impact of Underground Cables on Power Transmission and Distribution Networks. 2006 IEEE International Power and Energy Conference. Allan, G., Comerford, D., Connolly, K., McGregor, P. and Ross, A. (2020). The economic and environmental impacts of UK offshore wind development: The importance of local content. Energy, 199, p.117436. BEIS (2017). 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