World Oil Market Report – Products Imbalances & Pressure Points
Short-Term Global Oil Service
Issue 6, June 2023
OIL
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Contents
1. Highlights & Global High-level Overview for Each Product
2. Notes & Main Regional FGE Reports
3. Global Refinery Throughput by Region
4. Naphtha (Revisions from Last Month, Global Overview, North
America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, FSU, Asia)
5. Gasoline (Revisions from Last Month, Global Overview, North
America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, FSU, Asia)
6. Jet/Kerosene (Revisions from Last Month, Global Overview,
North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, FSU,
Asia)
7. Gasoil/Diesel (Revisions from Last Month, Global Overview,
North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, FSU,
Asia)
8. Fuel Oil (Revisions from Last Month, Global Overview, North
America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, FSU, Asia)
9. Data Tables
1. Highlights
Highlights
• Global product demand is seen rising by 2.38 mmb/d in 2023, practically unchanged from our last report.
• The plight of naphtha has gone from bad to worse with global ethylene prices exhibiting a much sharper downtrend than crude prices in recent weeks. Manufacturing PMIs
for May remain in contractionary territory in key areas including the European Union and China (NBS). An improvement does not look likely in the next six months.
• We have revised African gasoline demand lower for June to December by 70 kb/d relative to the last edition of this report due to surging retail prices in West Africa.
• The European gasoline balance for 2023 is 230 kb/d tighter than the 2015-2019 average. Around 90 kb/d of this comes from higher demand as consumers have switched
from diesel vehicles to gasoline-powered ones (and EVs) with the rest reflecting lower supplies due to refinery shutdowns. It is increasingly evident that European
consumers unable or unwilling to purchase EV cars are instead buying gasoline-fuelled vehicles.
• Rising air fleet efficiency is taking a toll on jet/kero demand. Flight activity will therefore have to rise well above pre-pandemic levels to bring demand back to 2019 levels.
• NWE and NYH diesel cracks are not expected to fall below $20/bbl on a monthly average basis in 2023 given the structurally higher costs of importing cargoes from more
distant non-Russian locations such as the Middle East and India.
• Ample Chinese product export quotas are acting as a ceiling to Singapore gasoline, diesel and jet/kero cracks – effectively tying Asia’s market more closely to the internal
Chinese market.
• VLSFO cracks are set to peak in summer and will then weaken as the availability of low sulphur residues such as LSSR and LSVGO increases from September as the pull
from the gasoline pool wanes. The start up of the third train of Al Zour in 3Q 2023 will further add to regional East of Suez VLSFO availability.
• An easing in Chinese buying of HSFO combined with higher Russian output should weigh on fuel oil prices. An expected end to Saudi Arabia’s additional voluntary supply
cuts in September will also improve the supply side, while demand from the Middle Eastern power generation sector wanes from September.
4
Naphtha: Cracks to remain subdued into winter; floor in NWE yet to be hit
Implied* Global Naphtha S/D Balance, kb/d
•
Revisions: Globally, naphtha supply for 2023 was increased by 75 kb/d, coming mainly
from the FSU and Asia, while global demand increased by 10 kb/d. This lengthened the
global balance by 65 kb/d relative to the last edition of this report.
•
The latest sets of manufacturing PMIs are going from bad to worse. The official Chinese
PMI for May fell deeper into contractionary territory at 48.8. Similarly, the HCOB
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI slid by 1 point m-o-m to 44.8 in May, its lowest level since
the pandemic in 2020. Bankruptcy levels have also been soaring across the Eurozone in
recent quarters. Against this poor macroeconomic backdrop, a recovery seems unlikely
before 2H 2024.
•
In a particularly bearish trend for the naphtha market, global ethylene prices have
been on a much sharper downtrend than crude prices in recent weeks. Since the
start of May, Dubai crude prices have fallen 6% while NE Asian ethylene prices have
fallen 21%. It does not look much different in other regions either.
•
Hope that new capacities will boost naphtha demand is likely misplaced because the
majority of new petchem plants is integrated with refineries and will produce their own
naphtha for petchem processing. Increased ethylene production, however, will
weigh on global ethylene prices keeping a lid on steam cracker runs.
•
Relative to our last report, the NWE forward crack spread has shifted lower by around
$5/bbl and is now slightly lower than the levels for the summer we were projecting last
month. Given recent data, however, we have also reduced our summer outlook and so
continue to remain more bearish than the forward curve for the rest of 2023. We have
even heard rumours of run cuts at some landlocked European refiners due to brimming
naphtha inventories.
•
For Asia, we are more optimistic than the forward curve, especially at the prompt
end as we do expect more naphtha to be blended into the gasoline pool. On the
demand side we also expect an uptick in spot naphtha purchases on the return of a
slew of South Korean steam crackers from June/July maintenance.
800
400
0
-400
-800
Jan
Apr
2015-19 Range
Jul
2015-19 Average
Oct
2022
2023
2024
* with 2019 as base year as in FGE’s World Refining Outlook
Naphtha product cracks, $/bbl
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Jan-23
Market = Forward curve @ 28 June
Mar-23
Sing vs Dubai
May-23
Jul-23
NWE vs Brent
Sep-23
Nov-23
Market (Sing)
Jan-24
Mar-24
Market (NWE)
Source: Platts, FGE, ICE, NYMEX
5
Gasoline: West African demand takes a hit, much to the alarm of European
refiners
•
Revisions: Relative to the last edition of this report, we lengthened our global 2H 2023
gasoline balance by 60 kb/d, coming mostly from lower demand in West Africa.
•
We have revised African gasoline demand lower for June to December by 70 kb/d
relative to the last edition of this report. This comes on the back of surging retail prices
across West Africa following the planned removal in end-June of a key Nigerian subsidy
on gasoline. The looming end of the Nigerian practice of swapping crude for gasoline
imports may also trigger supply shortfalls as key suppliers may be wary of counterparty
risk. Angolan retail prices also doubled following a partial removal of subsidies there. A
reduction in exports of EU gasoline to West Africa – also due to rising competition with
Russia – is bad news for EU refiners as it will be difficult to find new buyers for low
quality gasoline and blendstocks, such as high-sulphur straight-run FCC gasoline.
•
The European gasoline balance for 2023 is 230 kb/d tighter than the 2015-2019
average (see slide 30). Almost 90 kb/d of this comes from higher demand as consumers
shun diesel vehicles in favour of gasoline-powered ones (and EVs). The balance also
tightened as some 140 kb/d of gasoline supplies were lost due to capacity shutdowns
since 2019.
•
Increased blending of cheap naphtha into the gasoline pool as well as high FCC
utilisation, as indicated by persistently elevated inputs of secondary feedstocks in US
refineries, have tightened the US octane market, pushing 93 Gasoline to a $15/bbl
premium over 87 Gasoline on the USGC. We see further upside to octane spreads in
July and August, before they ease in September on the spec shift.
•
We expect gasoline crack strength to persist in summer but decline sharply in
October once winter grade specs allow for more blending of cheap butane.
However, we expect Asian gasoline cracks to be supported in 4Q by tighter regional
balances. Consequently, our Asian crack is more optimistic than the forward curve.
Implied* Global Gasoline S/D Balance, mmb/d
1.0
0.6
0.2
-0.2
-0.6
-1.0
Jan
Apr
2023
Jul
2015-19 Average
2022
Oct
2023
2024
* with 2019 as base year as in FGE’s World Refining Outlook
Gasoline Product Cracks, $/bbl
40
30
20
10
Market = Forward curve @ 28 June
0
Jan-23
6
Mar-23
May-23
Sing vs Dubai
EurobobE5 barge vs Brent
NYH RBOB vs WTI
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
Market (Sing)
Market (NWE)
Source: Platts*, FGE, ICE, NYMEX
Market (NYH)
Jet/Kero: Airplane efficiency gains to keep demand lower than prepandemic levels, despite commercial flight activity having rebounded
Implied* Global Jet/Kero S/D Balance, mmb/d
0.6
0.4
•
Revisions: Relative to the last edition of this report, global jet/kero balances for 2H
2023 were tightened by 100 kb/d, coming largely from the supply side. The largest
downward revision was done to the FSU as we shifted some 50 kb/d of Russian jet
supply into diesel.
•
We have long been assuming a boost in air travel due to pent-up post pandemic
demand, and this has indeed been the case. For instance, international flights out of
Europe have already exceeded 2019 levels by around 6%. This has contributed to
global commercial flight activity returning to 2019 levels, despite international flights out
of China lagging pre-pandemic levels by over 20%.
•
But rising air fleet efficiencies are taking a toll on jet fuel demand, meaning that it will
take more than a return of flight activity to pre-pandemic levels to bring demand
back to 2019 levels. Indeed, we expect December 2023 global jet/kero demand to lag
December 2019 demand by a whopping 730 kb/d, even though flight activity this
summer is already matching 2019 levels.
•
We continue to expect jet/kero cracks to mirror diesel cracks. With 2H 2023 jet
demand lagging 2019 levels by 800 kb/d on average, there is ample spare capacity to
shift more diesel into the jet fuel pool if needed. As a result, we expect regrades to
remain at a slight structural discount to diesel in all regions, at least on a monthly
average basis. Further pressure on the regrade will likely come in 4Q, as lower gasoline
cracks will reduce the pull on kero from the naphtha pool. Forward curves showing a
positive regrade look mispriced to us.
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
Jan
Apr
2015-19 Range
Jul
2015-19 Average
Oct
2022
2023
2024
* with 2019 as base year as in FGE’s World Refining Outlook
Jet/Diesel Regrade (Jet-Diesel), $/bbl
20
15
Market = Forward curve @ 28 June
10
5
0
-5
Jan-23
Mar-23
Sing
May-23
Market Sing
Jul-23
NWE
Sep-23
Market NWE
Nov-23
Jan-24
USGC
Source: Platts*, FGE
7
Gasoil/Diesel: Atlantic Basin cracks protected by price floor; Asian cracks
capped by Chinese exports
Implied* Global Gasoil/Diesel S/D Balance, mmb/d
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
Jan
Apr
2015-19 Range
Jul
2015-19 Average
•
Revisions: Relative to the last edition of this report, we have tightened our gasoil/diesel
balances for 2H 2023 by 120 kb/d. We revised Middle Eastern supply down by around
120 kb/d as the start-up of the Jizan hydrocracker was delayed to end-2023. However,
this was partially offset by higher supplies from Russia due to both higher runs and yield
shifts from jet/kero into diesel. FSU supplies for 2H increased by around 90 kb/d. Global
demand for gasoil/diesel was also revised 50 kb/d higher for 2H.
•
Diesel spot cracks spiked in June, temporarily bringing them back to $30/bbl in NWE.
This has been due to: 1) large refinery outages; 2) low Rhine water levels; 3) reduced
June-loading Indian diesel exports due to a cyclone; 4) heavy Russian maintenance in
May and June; and 5) liquidation of managed money short positions. Fundamentally, the
aforementioned factors are all on the supply side, while demand for diesel remains
poor amid the slowdown in manufacturing. Weak demand, combined with the short-term
nature of supply outages, is the key reason why we do not expect the high cracks to
persist and expect NWE cracks to fall back towards $20/bbl.
•
While the Atlantic Basin diesel market is protected by a price floor that factors in
higher clean freight costs to arb in marginal barrels from India or further abroad, the
East of Suez market is penalised by these same freight costs. In a low demand
environment this works as a ceiling on Asian cracks, because if they get too high, the
arb closes. There is also a ceiling in place on Asian diesel cracks due to China: if
Asian cracks rise too quickly and outshine the domestic Chinese market, China will hike
exports given ample product export quotas.
•
Therefore, our Asian diesel crack forecast remains well below the forward curve,
and we would rather see the risk to the forecast skewed to the downside. If refiners
exiting spring maintenance ramp runs back up to 1H levels, balances will lengthen
unduly, pressuring prices. We expect Asian crude intake to be 600 kb/d lower in 2H
2023 than in 1H 2023.
Oct
2022
2023
2024
* with 2019 as base year as in FGE’s World Refining Outlook
Diesel Product Cracks, $/bbl
60
Market = Forward curve @ 28 June
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan-23
Mar-23
Sing vs Dubai
Market (NWE)
8
May-23
Jul-23
Market (Sing)
NYH ULSD vs WTI
Sep-23
Nov-23
NWE vs Brent
Market (NYH)
Jan-24
Mar-24
Source: Platts, FGE, ICE, NYMEX
Fuel Oil: Peak HSFO and VLSFO supply tightness now behind us
•
Revisions: Relative to the last edition of this report, the April–July fuel oil balance was
tightened by 100 kb/d, split almost equally between higher demand and lower supply.
•
Global HSFO cracks are still riding high from the OPEC+ cuts which have reduced
supply at the margin, compounding the loss of some 300 kb/d that has been flowing to
China in recent months for use as a secondary feed. Fewer exports out of Russia
further tightened supplies, as did seasonally elevated secondary feedstock intake along
the USGC. Increased use of HSFO as a feedstock is reducing availability for end users.
European cracks have gone through the roof as the region must pull in marginal barrels
from the Middle East, a region that is seeing peak summer HSFO burning demand.
•
The tightness should continue in summer with the additional Saudi Arabian output cuts
in July (and August we think) adding further support. An easing will come in 4Q as: 1)
Chinese interest in HSFO wanes given a new batch of crude import quotas and
shrinking fuel oil import quotas; flows of diluted bitumen to China will also pick up as the
dust settles on the mislabelling scandal; 2) HSFO demand from the Middle East ebbs
seasonally from September; and 3) more medium and heavy crude should enter the
market once the additional voluntary Saudi cuts are ended.
•
Therefore, we agree with the forward curves that peak HSFO cracks have already
been reached and the risk is now skewed to the downside – assuming we do not
see further OPEC+ cuts.
•
Asian VLSFO strength is expected to follow gasoline cracks lower from September.
Current strength is driven by the supply-side following several months of weak straighttrun margins for sweet crude in Singapore. Inflows from the Atlantic Basin were
constrained by a persistently strong pre-summer and then summer gasoline season. We
expect a rapid fall in gasoline cracks once summer RVP constraints are lifted,
particularly given an abundance of cheap butane. Further supply-side pressure is
expected to stem from the start-up of the third train of the al Zour refinery in 3Q 2023.
Implied* Global Fuel Oil S/D Balance, mmb/d
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
Jan
Apr
2015-19 Range
Jul
2015-19 Average
Oct
2022
2023
2024
* with 2019 as base year as in FGE’s World Refining Outlook
HSFO Product Cracks, $/bbl
0
-10
-20
-30
Market = Forward curve @ 28 June
-40
Jan-23
Mar-23
Sing vs Dubai
Market (Sing)
9
May-23
Jul-23
NWE vs Brent
Market (NWE)
Sep-23
Nov-23
USGC vs WTI
Market (USGC)
Jan-24
Mar-24
Source:
Platts, FGE, NYMEX
2. Notes
Please note that all data in this report, including refinery runs, product consumption and output, and net trade balances are available for subscribers on our Oil Online Data
Service - ODS.
The source for all charts in this report is FGE’s databases, unless otherwise stipulated.
The term “5-year average” refers to 2015-2019.
For more detailed regional coverage, please refer to FGE’s regional reports:
10
•
FGE US Oil Monthly
•
FGE Latin America Monthly
•
FGE European Monthly
•
FGE Africa Monthly
•
FGE Middle East Monthly
•
FGE FSU Monthly
•
FGE Asia Pacific Monthly
3. Global Refinery Throughput by Region
Global refinery runs by region (1)
North America, mmb/d
World, mmb/d
90
20
85
19
80
18
75
17
70
Jan
Apr
2015-19 Range
Jul
2015-19 Average
16
Jan
Oct
2022
2023
2024
Latin America, mmb/d
Apr
2015-19 Range
Jul
2015-19 Average
Oct
2022
2023
2024
Europe, mmb/d
14
6.5
6.0
13
5.5
5.0
12
4.5
4.0
11
3.5
3.0
Jan
Apr
2015-19 Range
12
Jul
2015-19 Average
2022
Oct
2023
10
Jan
2024
Apr
2015-19 Range
Jul
2015-19 Average
2022
Oct
2023
2024
Global refinery runs by region (2)
Middle East, mmb/d
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
Jan
Asia, mmb/d
Apr
2015-19 Range
Jul
2015-19 Average
2022
Oct
2023
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
Jan
2024
2015-19 Range
FSU, mmb/d
Africa, mmb/d
7.5
2.5
Jul
2015-19 Average
2022
Oct
2023
2024
2.3
7.0
2.1
6.5
1.9
6.0
1.7
5.5
1.5
5.0
Jan
Apr
2015-19 Range
13
Apr
Jul
2015-19 Average
2022
Oct
2023
1.3
Jan
2024
Apr
2015-19 Range
Jul
2015-19 Average
Oct
2022
2023
2024
Global light distillates & middle distillates supply/demand balances
Implied* Global Light Distillates S/D Balance, mmb/d
Implied* Global Middle Distillate S/D Balance, mmb/d
1.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
-1.5
-1.5
-2.0
Jan
2015-19 Range
•
Apr
Jul
2015-19 Average
Oct
2022
Light distillates: Naphtha + Gasoline
* with 2019 as base year as in FGE’s World Refining Outlook
14
2023
Jan
2024
2015-19 Range
•
Apr
Jul
2015-19 Average
Middle distillates: Jet/Kerosene + Gasoil/Diesel
Oct
2022
2023
2024
4. Naphtha Supply and Demand Outlook
Global overview, North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, FSU, and Asia
Naphtha supply/demand outlook – Overview
Implied* Global Naphtha S/D Balance, kb/d
Y-o-Y Change in S/D Balances by Region
Current Month, kb/d
600
800
400
400
200
0
0
-200
-400
-400
-800
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-600
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
* with 2019 as base year as in FGE’s World Refining Outlook
16
2024
NA
EU
LA
ME
FSU
AP
AF
Total
Naphtha supply/demand balance outlook change from last month,
by region
Y-o-Y Change in S/D Balances by Region
Last Month, kb/d
Y-o-Y Change in S/D Balances by Region
Current Month, kb/d
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
-200
-200
-400
-400
-600
3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
NA
17
EU
LA
ME
FSU
AP
AF
Total
-600
3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
NA
EU
LA
ME
FSU
AP
AF
Total
Naphtha supply/demand outlook – North America
North America Naphtha S/D Balance, kb/d
North America Naphtha S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
25
70
60
50
20
40
30
15
20
10
10
0
-10
5
-20
-30
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
0
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2024
1Q 23
2Q 23
3Q 23
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE US Oil Monthly
18
4Q 23
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Naphtha supply/demand outlook – Latin America
Latin America Naphtha S/D Balance, kb/d
Latin America Naphtha S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
70
45
40
20
35
30
-30
25
-80
20
15
-130
10
5
-180
0
-230
-5
-10
-280
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-15
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
4Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Latin America Monthly
19
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Naphtha supply/demand outlook – Europe
Europe Naphtha S/D Balance, kb/d
Europe Naphtha S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
160
450
400
140
350
120
300
250
100
200
80
150
100
60
50
40
0
-50
20
-100
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
0
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
4Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE European Monthly
20
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Naphtha supply/demand outlook – Africa
Africa Naphtha S/D Balance, kb/d
Africa Naphtha S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
350
20
330
310
290
10
270
250
230
0
210
190
170
150
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-10
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Africa Monthly
21
4Q 23
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Naphtha supply/demand outlook – Middle East
Middle East Naphtha S/D Balance, kb/d
Middle East Naphtha S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
200
1,250
1,200
150
1,150
1,100
100
1,050
1,000
50
950
900
0
850
800
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-50
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
4Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Middle East Monthly
22
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Naphtha supply/demand outlook – FSU
FSU Naphtha S/D Balance, kb/d
FSU Naphtha S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
15
700
10
600
5
500
0
-5
400
-10
300
-15
200
-20
100
-25
-30
0
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-35
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE FSU Monthly
23
4Q 23
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Naphtha supply/demand outlook – Asia
Asia Naphtha S/D Balance, kb/d
Asia Naphtha S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
40
-900
20
-1,000
0
-1,100
-20
-1,200
-40
-60
-1,300
-80
-1,400
-100
-1,500
-120
-1,600
-140
-160
-1,700
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-180
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Asia Oil Monthly
24
4Q 23
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
5. Gasoline Supply and Demand Outlook
Global overview, North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, FSU and Asia
Gasoline supply/demand outlook – Overview
Implied* Global Gasoline S/D Balance, mmb/d
Y-o-Y Quarterly Change in S/D Balances by Region
Current Month, kb/d
800
1.0
0.6
400
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.6
-400
-1.0
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-800
1Q 23
2023
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
* with 2019 as base year as in FGE’s World Refining Outlook
26
2024
NA
2Q 23
EU
3Q 23
LA
4Q 23
ME
1Q 24
FSU
2Q 24
3Q 24
AP
AF
4Q 24
Total
Gasoline supply/demand balance outlook change from last month,
by region
Y-o-Y Quarterly Change in S/D Balances by Region
Last Month, kb/d
Y-o-Y Quarterly Change in S/D Balances by Region
Current Month, kb/d
800
800
400
400
0
0
-400
-400
-800
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
NA
27
EU
LA
ME
FSU
AP
AF
Total
-800
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
NA
EU
LA
ME
FSU
AP
AF
Total
Gasoline supply/demand outlook – North America
North America Gasoline S/D Balance, kb/d
North America Gasoline S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
1,200
300
1,000
250
800
200
600
150
400
100
200
50
0
0
-200
-50
-400
-100
-600
-150
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-200
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2024
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE US Oil Monthly
28
Gasoline supply/demand outlook – Latin America
Latin America Gasoline S/D Balance, kb/d
Latin America Gasoline S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
-600
20
-700
0
-800
-20
-900
-40
-1,000
-60
-1,100
-80
-100
-1,200
-120
-1,300
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-140
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2024
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Latin America Monthly
29
Gasoline supply/demand outlook – Europe
Europe Gasoline S/D Balance, kb/d
1,600
Europe Gasoline S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
European gasoline length is shrinking on
a combination of lower refinery throughput
(shutdown-related) and stronger demand
1,400
1,200
0
-50
-100
1,000
-150
800
600
-200
400
-250
200
-300
0
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-350
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2024
1Q 23
2Q 23
3Q 23
4Q 23
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE European Monthly
30
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Gasoline supply/demand outlook – Africa
Africa Gasoline S/D Balance, kb/d
Africa Gasoline S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
-600
100
50
-700
0
-800
-50
-100
-900
-150
-1,000
-200
-1,100
-250
-300
-1,200
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-350
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2024
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Africa Monthly
31
Gasoline supply/demand outlook – Middle East
Middle East Gasoline S/D Balance, kb/d
Middle East Gasoline S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
300
500
200
450
100
400
0
350
-100
300
-200
250
-300
200
-400
150
-500
100
-600
50
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
0
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2024
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Middle East Monthly
32
Gasoline supply/demand outlook – FSU
FSU Gasoline S/D Balance, kb/d
FSU Gasoline S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
600
350
500
300
400
250
200
300
150
200
100
100
50
0
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
0
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2024
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE FSU Monthly
33
Gasoline supply/demand outlook – Asia
Asia Gasoline S/D Balance, kb/d
Asia Gasoline S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
300
100
200
50
100
0
0
-50
-100
-200
-100
-300
-150
-400
-200
-500
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-250
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2024
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Asia Oil Monthly
34
6. Jet/Kerosene Supply and Demand Outlook
Global overview, North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, FSU and Asia
Jet/Kerosene supply/demand outlook – Overview
Implied* Global Jet/Kero S/D Balance, mmb/d
Y-o-Y Quarterly Change in S/D Balances by Region
Current Month, kb/d
400
0.6
200
0.4
0
0.2
-200
0.0
-400
-0.2
-600
-0.4
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-800
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
* with 2019 as base year as in FGE’s World Refining Outlook
36
2024
NA
2Q 23
EU
3Q 23
LA
4Q 23
ME
1Q 24
FSU
2Q 24
3Q 24
AP
AF
4Q 24
Total
Jet/Kerosene supply/demand balance outlook change from last month,
by region
Y-o-Y Quarterly Change in S/D Balances by Region
Current Month, kb/d
Y-o-Y Quarterly Change in S/D Balances by Region
Last Month, kb/d
400
400
200
200
0
0
-200
-200
-400
-400
-600
-600
-800
-800
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
NA
37
EU
LA
ME
FSU
AP
AF
Total
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
NA
EU
LA
ME
FSU
AP
AF
Total
Jet/Kerosene supply/demand outlook – North America
North America Jet/Kero S/D Balance, kb/d
North America Jet/Kerosene S/D vs 2015-2019 Average,
kb/d
250
80
200
60
150
40
100
50
20
0
0
-50
-20
-100
-40
-150
-60
-200
-80
-250
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-100
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE US Oil Monthly
38
Jet/Kerosene supply/demand outlook – Latin America
Latin America Jet/Kero S/D Balance, kb/d
Latin America Jet/Kerosene S/D vs 2015-2019 Average,
kb/d
0
0
-10
-50
-20
-30
-100
-40
-150
-50
-60
-200
-70
-80
-250
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-90
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
4Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Latin America Monthly
39
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Jet/Kerosene supply/demand outlook – Europe
Europe Jet/Kero S/D Balance, kb/d
Euorpe Jet/Kerosene S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
0
0
-10
-100
-20
-200
-30
-40
-300
-50
-60
-400
-70
-500
-80
-90
-600
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-100
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
4Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE European Monthly
40
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Jet/Kerosene supply/demand outlook – Africa
Africa Jet/Kero S/D Balance, kb/d
Africa Jet/Kerosene S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
20
80
0
60
-20
40
-40
20
-60
-80
0
-100
-20
-120
-40
-140
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-60
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Africa Monthly
41
4Q 23
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Jet/Kerosene supply/demand outlook – Middle East
Middle East Jet/Kero S/D Balance, kb/d
Middle East Jet/Kerosene S/D vs 2015-2019 Average,
kb/d
700
100
600
50
500
0
400
-50
300
200
-100
100
-150
0
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-200
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
4Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Middle East Monthly
42
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Jet/Kerosene supply/demand outlook – FSU
FSU Jet/Kero S/D Balance, kb/d
FSU Jet/Kerosene S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
200
100
90
150
80
70
100
60
50
50
40
30
0
20
10
-50
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
0
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE FSU Monthly
43
4Q 23
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Jet/Kerosene supply/demand outlook – Asia
Asia Jet/Kero S/D Balance, kb/d
Asia Jet/Kerosene S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
900
250
800
200
700
150
600
100
500
400
50
300
0
200
-50
100
-100
0
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-150
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Asia Oil Monthly
44
4Q 23
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
7. Gasoil/Diesel Supply and Demand Outlook
Global overview, North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, FSU and Asia
Gasoil/Diesel supply/demand outlook – Overview
Implied* Global Gasoil/Diesel S/D Balance, mmb/d
Y-o-Y Quarterly Change in S/D Balances by Region
Current Month, kb/d
2.0
1,500
1.5
1,000
1.0
0.5
500
0.0
0
-0.5
-1.0
-500
-1.5
-2.0
-1,000
Jan
2015-19 Range
Apr
Jul
2015-19 Average
Oct
2022
* with 2019 as base year as in FGE’s World Refining Outlook
46
2023
1Q 23
2024
NA
2Q 23
EU
3Q 23
LA
4Q 23
ME
1Q 24
FSU
2Q 24
3Q 24
AP
AF
4Q 24
Total
Gasoil/Diesel supply/demand balance outlook change from last month,
by region
Y-o-Y Quarterly Change in S/D Balances by Region
Last Month, kb/d
Y-o-Y Quarterly Change in S/D Balances by Region
Current Month, kb/d
1,400
1,400
1,200
1,200
1,000
1,000
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
-200
-200
-400
-400
-600
-600
-800
-800
-1,000
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
NA
47
EU
LA
ME
FSU
AP
AF
Total
-1,000
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
NA
EU
LA
ME
FSU
AP
AF
Total
Gasoil/Diesel supply/demand outlook – North America
North America Gasoil/Diesel S/D Balance, kb/d
North America Gasoil/Diesel S/D vs 2015-2019 Average,
kb/d
1,800
300
1,600
250
1,400
200
1,200
150
1,000
800
100
600
50
400
0
200
-50
0
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-100
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE US Oil Monthly
48
4Q 23
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Gasoil/Diesel supply/demand outlook – Latin America
Latin America Gasoil/Diesel S/D Balance, mmb/d
Latin America Gasoil/Diesel S/D vs 2015-2019 Average,
kb/d
0.0
0
-0.2
-50
-0.4
-100
-0.6
-150
-0.8
-200
-1.0
-250
-1.2
-300
-1.4
-350
-1.6
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-400
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
4Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Latin America Monthly
49
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Gasoil/Diesel supply/demand outlook – Europe
Europe Gasoil/Diesel S/D Balance, kb/d
Europe Gasoil/Diesel S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
0
200
-200
150
-400
-600
100
-800
50
-1,000
-1,200
0
-1,400
-50
-1,600
-100
-1,800
-2,000
Jan
Apr
Jul
-150
Oct
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
4Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE European Monthly
50
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Gasoil/Diesel supply/demand outlook – Africa
Africa Gasoil/Diesel S/D Balance, kb/d
Africa Gasoil/Diesel S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
-800
0
-850
-900
-50
-950
-1,000
-100
-1,050
-1,100
-150
-1,150
-1,200
-200
-1,250
-1,300
Jan
Apr
Jul
-250
Oct
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Africa Monthly
51
4Q 23
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Gasoil/Diesel supply/demand outlook – Middle East
Middle East Gasoil/Diesel S/D Balance, kb/d
Middle East Gasoil/Diesel S/D vs 2015-2019 Average,
kb/d
1,800
900
1,600
800
700
1,400
600
1,200
500
1,000
400
300
800
200
600
100
400
Jan
Apr
Jul
0
Oct
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
4Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Middle East Monthly
52
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Gasoil/Diesel supply/demand outlook – FSU
FSU Gasoil/Diesel S/D Balance, kb/d
FSU Gasoil/Diesel S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
1,200
120
1,100
100
1,000
80
60
900
40
800
20
700
0
600
-20
-40
500
-60
400
Jan
Apr
Jul
-80
Oct
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE FSU Monthly
53
4Q 23
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Gasoil/Diesel supply/demand outlook – Asia
Asia Gasoil/Diesel S/D Balance, kb/d
Asia Gasoil/Diesel S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
1,400
600
1,200
500
1,000
400
800
300
200
600
100
400
0
200
-100
0
Jan
2015-19 Range
2023
Apr
Jul
2015-19 Average
2024
Oct
2022
-200
1Q 23
2Q 23
3Q 23
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Asia Oil Monthly
54
4Q 23
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
8. Fuel Oil Supply and Demand Outlook
Global overview, North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, FSU and Asia
Fuel Oil supply/demand outlook – Overview
Implied* Global Fuel Oil S/D Balance, mmb/d
Y-o-Y Change in S/D Balances by Region
Current Month, kb/d
800
1.0
600
400
0.5
200
0.0
0
-200
-0.5
-400
-1.0
-600
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-800
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
* with 2019 as base year as in FGE’s World Refining Outlook
56
2024
1Q 23
2Q 23
3Q 23
4Q 23
1Q 24
2Q 24
NA
EU
LA
ME
FSU
AP
3Q 24
AF
4Q 24
Total
Fuel Oil supply/demand balance outlook change from last month,
by region
Y-o-Y Change in S/D Balances by Region
Last Month, kb/d
Y-o-Y Change in S/D Balances by Region
Current Month, kb/d
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
-200
-200
-400
-400
-600
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
NA
57
EU
LA
ME
FSU
AP
AF
Total
-600
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
NA
EU
LA
ME
FSU
AP
AF
Total
Fuel Oil Supply/Demand Outlook – North America
North America Fuel Oil S/D Balance, kb/d
North America Fuel Oil S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
350
0
300
-20
250
-40
200
-60
150
-80
100
-100
50
-120
0
-140
-50
-160
-100
-180
-150
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-200
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE US Oil Monthly
58
4Q 23
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Fuel Oil supply/demand outlook – Latin America
Latin America Fuel Oil S/D Balance, kb/d
Latin America Fuel Oil S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
400
180
350
160
300
140
250
120
200
150
100
100
80
50
60
0
40
-50
20
-100
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
0
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
4Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Latin America Monthly
59
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Fuel Oil supply/demand outlook – Europe
Europe Fuel Oil S/D Balance, kb/d
Europe Fuel Oil S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
600
0
500
-50
400
-100
-150
300
-200
200
-250
100
-300
0
Jan
Apr
Jul
-350
Oct
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
4Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE European Monthly
60
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Fuel Oil supply/demand outlook – Africa
Africa Fuel Oil S/D Balance, kb/d
Africa Fuel Oil S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
250
140
200
120
150
100
100
80
50
60
40
0
20
-50
0
-100
-20
-150
Jan
Apr
Jul
-40
Oct
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Africa Monthly
61
4Q 23
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Fuel Oil supply/demand outlook – Middle East
Middle East Fuel Oil S/D Balance, kb/d
Middle East Fuel Oil S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
900
200
800
150
700
100
600
50
500
0
400
-50
300
-100
200
-150
100
-200
0
Jan
Apr
Jul
-250
Oct
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
4Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Middle East Monthly
62
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Fuel Oil supply/demand outlook – FSU
FSU Fuel Oil S/D Balance, kb/d
FSU Fuel Oil S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
1,300
0
1,200
-50
1,100
1,000
-100
900
-150
800
700
-200
600
-250
500
400
Jan
Apr
Jul
-300
Oct
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE FSU Monthly
63
4Q 23
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
Fuel Oil supply/demand outlook – Asia
Asia Fuel Oil S/D Balance, kb/d
Asia Fuel Oil S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
-600
300
-700
250
-800
-900
200
-1,000
150
-1,100
-1,200
100
-1,300
50
-1,400
-1,500
Jan
Apr
Jul
0
Oct
1Q 23
2015-19 Range
2015-19 Average
2022
2023
2Q 23
3Q 23
2024
For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Asia Oil Monthly
64
4Q 23
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24
4Q 24
9. Data Tables
Naphtha & Gasoline
kb/d
North America
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Europe
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Latin America
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Middle East
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
FSU
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Asia Pacific
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Africa
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
kb/d
North America
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Europe
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Latin America
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Middle East
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
FSU
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Asia Pacific
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Africa
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
66
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
34
53
3
312
-52
351
-25
34
20
970
-66
-49
573
155
-24
-1,695
52
90
240
-31
-34
37
3
-2
289
-23
267
-95
-70
-57
976
6
72
586
12
-15
-1,522
174
73
273
33
-10
45
8
18
229
-60
85
-39
56
11
982
6
98
543
-43
133
-1,558
-37
-305
267
-6
-26
24
-21
10
265
36
82
-47
-8
-27
980
-3
47
517
-26
244
-1,442
116
-111
261
-6
-42
33
9
-0
261
-4
133
-42
5
-33
992
13
48
508
-9
165
-1,255
187
22
254
-7
-33
37
4
9
237
-24
76
-38
5
-33
1,086
94
77
488
-21
94
-1,288
-33
-93
277
23
-9
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
672
276
-271
1,028
258
11
-933
287
-109
-86
-25
-5
393
-125
-23
58
97
-97
-1,063
-12
-125
91
-582
-43
723
-305
-50
-1,095
-162
-136
-102
-16
38
356
-37
28
41
-17
-111
-1,002
61
-61
-395
-485
-262
577
-146
-126
-1,059
36
-134
-100
2
34
341
-15
45
-240
-281
-365
-1,067
-65
-10
-404
-9
-214
595
18
-178
-1,071
-12
-106
0
100
0
240
-101
101
-249
-9
-164
-1,042
25
30
-472
-68
-111
618
23
-156
-980
91
-52
-134
-134
-156
194
-46
-6
-217
32
-20
-1,041
1
21
-269
203
-164
623
5
8
-971
9
88
-103
31
79
241
46
-54
-254
-37
-171
-965
76
74
Jul-23
44
7
4
254
17
-25
-67
-29
-62
1,082
-4
97
467
-21
125
-1,397
-109
87
252
-25
-7
Jul-23
-145
124
-451
700
77
19
-990
-19
24
-21
82
77
263
22
-113
-91
162
27
-936
29
115
Aug-23
Sep-23
Regional Naphtha S/D Balances
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-24
Feb-24
Mar-24
Apr-24
May-24
Jun-24
40
-4
17
304
50
-30
-68
-1
-41
1,082
-0
71
535
68
129
-1,348
49
225
267
15
-0
30
-10
10
293
-11
-57
-49
19
-21
1,051
-31
124
519
-16
70
-1,341
7
47
250
-17
-11
14
-16
-9
343
50
-54
-48
1
-34
1,086
35
142
471
-48
57
-1,482
-142
11
242
-7
-5
20
-14
-17
261
26
-28
-87
-64
8
1,080
-42
104
550
20
-35
-1,633
-35
-111
264
21
-9
32
12
-13
232
-28
3
-68
19
-29
1,053
-27
71
493
-58
-50
-1,522
111
36
287
24
20
23
-9
-1
235
2
-30
-75
-7
-27
1,039
-14
60
466
-27
-51
-1,554
-32
-112
277
-10
16
31
8
-2
256
22
-4
-62
13
-20
1,093
54
100
519
53
10
-1,445
109
-190
253
-24
-1
36
5
-1
225
-31
-12
-55
7
-17
1,146
53
59
500
-18
13
-1,316
129
-28
275
22
-2
Aug-23
Sep-23
Feb-24
Mar-24
Apr-24
May-24
Jun-24
-128
17
9
766
66
142
-943
47
118
-46
-25
64
276
14
-77
48
139
251
-980
-44
123
16
144
-179
698
-68
154
-949
-7
147
-66
-20
7
174
-102
-171
-105
-153
228
-994
-13
67
86
-439
-4
883
-243
160
-1,051
-78
44
-3
-128
99
230
-2
-126
29
-181
-12
-940
2
62
-237
-323
158
751
-132
174
-1,030
21
28
-26
-23
74
188
-42
-153
-255
-284
-15
-994
-54
73
-141
96
263
664
-88
69
-1,070
-40
1
27
52
27
136
-52
-105
-144
111
105
-977
17
65
-315
-174
157
674
10
56
-1,005
65
-25
98
71
231
172
36
-22
-281
-137
-64
-987
-9
55
-270
44
-1
594
-80
-29
-1,002
3
-31
91
-7
194
220
48
-21
-60
221
193
-887
100
78
23
9
34
325
-18
17
-24
24
28
1,073
-14
108
543
72
110
-1,483
-1
214
276
33
12
41
18
59
282
-43
-82
-38
-14
21
1,106
34
70
528
-14
111
-1,450
33
297
275
-1
4
33
-7
-0
235
-48
-78
-23
16
3
1,122
16
152
530
2
-43
-1,598
-148
97
242
-32
2
Regional Gasoline S/D Balances
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-24
140
123
-72
667
-31
177
-1,047
-97
-52
-67
-0
7
150
-25
-231
-282
-176
-50
-955
38
34
753
614
183
792
126
164
-1,041
6
8
-188
-121
-175
306
157
-187
-214
68
-117
-970
-15
68
1,035
282
639
837
45
67
-1,144
-103
77
-44
144
17
356
50
-162
-185
28
-146
-968
2
82
525
-510
-147
1,126
289
98
-973
171
-39
125
169
211
232
-125
-161
211
396
153
-942
27
121
Jul-24
43
6
-1
260
34
6
-82
-27
-16
1,186
40
103
451
-49
-16
-1,569
-253
-172
249
-26
-4
Jul-24
-53
217
92
707
113
6
-1,008
-6
-18
211
120
232
200
-20
-63
-97
-37
-6
-797
90
139
Aug-24
Sep-24
39
-4
-1
311
52
8
-79
3
-11
1,165
-20
83
517
65
-18
-1,495
73
-148
263
14
-4
29
-10
-1
318
7
25
-56
23
-7
1,140
-25
90
529
12
10
-1,361
134
-21
245
-18
-4
Aug-24
Sep-24
-201
-148
-73
809
103
43
-1,001
7
-58
170
-42
215
185
-15
-92
-375
-278
-423
-794
2
186
25
226
9
720
-89
22
-1,020
-19
-71
138
-32
204
123
-62
-51
-137
237
-32
-808
-14
185
Oct-24
13
-16
-1
378
60
35
-57
-0
-8
1,172
31
86
482
-47
11
-1,535
-174
-52
240
-6
-3
Oct-24
72
47
-67
671
-49
4
-1,118
-97
-71
121
-16
188
112
-12
-38
-454
-317
-173
-753
55
202
Nov-24
Dec-24
22
9
-1
340
-38
15
-34
23
-9
1,144
-28
71
536
54
-6
-1,554
-19
-71
272
32
-4
39
18
-1
288
-52
6
-46
-13
-8
1,190
46
83
518
-19
-11
-1,640
-86
-190
261
-11
-14
Nov-24
Dec-24
684
611
-70
822
152
30
-1,096
21
-56
110
-11
298
262
150
-44
-119
335
94
-734
19
236
965
281
-70
854
32
17
-1,250
-154
-107
172
61
215
277
15
-79
-63
56
122
-716
19
253
Jet/Kerosene & Gasoil/Diesel
kb/d
North America
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Europe
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Latin America
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Middle East
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
FSU
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Asia Pacific
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Africa
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
kb/d
North America
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Europe
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Latin America
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Middle East
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
FSU
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Asia Pacific
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Africa
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
67
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
76
147
-43
-118
188
-97
-202
-23
-59
266
-70
-1
100
-16
19
440
70
27
-131
-11
-47
32
-44
-41
-212
-94
-157
-183
18
-49
298
32
106
96
-4
-28
426
-14
-5
-93
38
6
40
8
158
-349
-137
-81
-166
17
-15
303
5
39
97
0
-47
423
-3
-107
-111
-17
-15
96
56
-61
-346
3
-95
-182
-16
-50
345
42
67
96
-1
26
393
-30
-243
-99
12
-9
60
-36
-110
-338
8
-190
-159
23
-6
300
-45
-91
103
7
15
514
121
-98
-117
-19
-17
43
-17
114
-428
-89
-219
-164
-5
2
346
46
8
126
23
-4
411
-103
-127
-104
13
-8
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
998
-329
305
-303
745
480
-1,001
219
-95
972
-86
-35
1,136
94
334
1,322
392
758
-1,144
-69
-77
762
-236
179
-1,376
-1,073
393
-1,256
-255
-77
1,072
99
8
1,099
-37
252
1,215
-108
854
-1,188
-44
-36
706
-56
-260
-1,423
-47
126
-1,388
-132
-145
1,257
185
150
1,020
-79
172
822
-393
182
-1,157
31
-58
950
244
-171
-907
516
196
-1,391
-3
-275
1,554
297
186
794
-226
150
354
-468
48
-1,132
24
-27
1,004
54
-135
-1,054
-147
-12
-1,225
166
32
1,294
-260
115
808
14
156
336
-17
-65
-1,227
-94
-143
1,414
410
159
-1,198
-145
-78
-1,212
13
84
1,336
42
93
894
86
121
662
326
203
-1,221
6
-37
Jul-23
107
64
9
-454
-27
-111
-201
-37
-20
411
66
30
142
16
-14
465
54
-102
-116
-12
4
Jul-23
1,567
152
62
-1,003
195
-64
-1,190
22
71
1,285
-51
-27
905
11
59
1,052
390
256
-1,169
52
-52
Aug-23
Sep-23
99
-8
94
-433
22
-36
-182
19
-10
385
-26
-28
125
-17
-16
502
37
-179
-109
7
-19
29
-70
-16
-434
-1
-84
-153
29
5
353
-32
20
102
-23
-37
472
-30
-317
-126
-16
-5
Aug-23
Sep-23
1,337
-230
-24
-956
47
239
-1,209
-19
176
1,264
-21
147
875
-29
105
1,098
47
284
-1,155
14
-18
1,023
-314
-189
-1,514
-558
267
-1,242
-33
166
1,262
-2
97
631
-244
-57
518
-580
-491
-1,187
-33
-16
Regional Jet/Kerosene S/D Balances
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-24
-176
-205
-186
-411
23
51
-163
-9
16
307
-46
18
81
-21
-46
327
-145
-189
-124
1
-2
35
210
-52
-251
160
21
-165
-2
2
302
-6
30
92
10
-18
259
-68
-308
-116
9
-11
98
63
169
-261
-10
45
-183
-18
-4
358
57
22
90
-2
-27
77
-182
-293
-118
-2
2
30
-68
-46
-153
108
-35
-199
-16
3
391
33
125
48
-42
-52
84
8
-356
-80
38
52
Regional Gasoil/Diesel S/D Balances
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-24
544
-479
-500
-1,488
25
-131
-1,347
-105
-52
1,309
46
71
585
-46
-150
386
-132
-145
-1,219
-32
-40
1,358
814
22
-1,247
241
46
-1,278
68
-43
1,169
-139
-133
928
343
-10
136
-250
-177
-1,187
32
-68
1,558
200
230
-954
293
94
-1,083
196
138
1,153
-17
94
983
55
-59
638
502
-292
-1,140
47
-66
710
-847
-288
-377
577
-74
-1,037
46
-35
1,321
168
349
981
-2
-155
778
140
-545
-1,125
15
18
Feb-24
Mar-24
Apr-24
May-24
Jun-24
-54
-84
-86
-234
-81
-21
-182
16
1
392
1
94
37
-11
-59
84
0
-341
-71
8
22
-52
2
-92
-309
-75
40
-179
3
-12
394
3
91
33
-4
-64
283
199
-140
-61
11
50
49
102
-47
-382
-74
-36
-171
8
11
413
19
68
35
2
-61
342
59
-51
-51
10
47
78
29
19
-408
-26
-70
-155
17
4
463
50
163
60
25
-42
358
15
-156
-23
28
94
46
-32
4
-492
-83
-64
-163
-8
2
468
5
122
83
23
-43
505
147
93
-17
6
87
Feb-24
Mar-24
Apr-24
May-24
Jun-24
412
-298
-350
-1,125
-748
251
-1,197
-161
59
1,528
207
457
989
8
-110
791
13
-424
-1,168
-42
20
809
397
102
-1,132
-7
291
-1,261
-63
127
1,632
103
375
832
-157
-188
322
-469
-500
-1,106
62
51
1,040
231
89
-1,018
114
-110
-1,311
-50
80
1,636
5
83
658
-174
-136
178
-144
-176
-1,117
-12
15
1,158
118
154
-927
91
127
-1,242
69
-17
1,504
-132
211
815
157
8
453
275
117
-1,104
13
123
1,532
374
117
-1,185
-259
13
-1,300
-58
-88
1,644
140
309
885
69
-9
556
103
-106
-1,127
-23
94
Jul-24
113
66
6
-479
13
-25
-206
-43
-5
537
69
126
87
4
-55
546
41
80
-48
-31
68
Jul-24
1,651
119
84
-866
319
137
-1,264
36
-75
1,674
29
389
815
-69
-89
958
402
-94
-1,033
95
136
Aug-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
Nov-24
Dec-24
104
-8
5
-441
38
-8
-185
21
-3
482
-55
97
67
-21
-59
573
27
70
-19
29
91
34
-71
4
-451
-10
-17
-157
28
-4
439
-42
87
63
-4
-39
525
-47
53
-18
1
108
-176
-210
-1
-450
1
-39
-168
-11
-6
473
33
166
43
-20
-38
363
-162
36
3
21
128
40
216
5
-270
180
-19
-176
-8
-12
448
-25
146
49
6
-43
258
-105
-1
-42
-45
74
105
65
7
-281
-12
-20
-198
-21
-15
440
-8
81
41
-8
-49
71
-187
-6
5
47
123
Aug-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
Nov-24
Dec-24
1,419
-231
83
-807
59
149
-1,278
-13
-69
1,604
-69
340
757
-58
-118
1,060
102
-39
-1,053
-20
102
1,023
-397
-0
-1,322
-515
192
-1,287
-10
-45
1,622
18
360
576
-181
-55
681
-379
163
-1,078
-25
110
1,359
815
1
-1,041
229
206
-1,342
55
-64
1,564
-169
395
868
323
-60
376
-118
240
-1,115
-22
72
1,558
199
1
-786
255
168
-1,168
174
-86
1,572
8
419
886
18
-97
664
288
26
-1,026
90
114
544
-479
-0
-1,271
51
218
-1,397
-110
-50
1,733
111
425
545
-31
-40
494
-187
109
-1,093
-15
126
Fuel Oil
kb/d
North America
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Europe
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Latin America
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Middle East
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
FSU
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Asia Pacific
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
Africa
month-on-month change
year-on-year change
68
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
26
-17
95
54
-39
-190
287
-80
-22
197
-30
-83
593
-58
-157
-1,079
55
-180
-7
-49
-73
-63
-89
37
38
-16
-143
306
19
40
185
-12
-109
733
140
-73
-1,117
-38
-311
28
35
-49
69
133
175
52
14
31
356
50
58
361
176
-202
699
-33
-18
-1,154
-36
-237
10
-18
-57
Apr-23
79
10
122
153
102
6
309
-46
68
478
117
-62
613
-86
-15
-912
241
-142
107
97
13
May-23
68
-12
125
240
87
-20
281
-29
59
440
-38
29
575
-38
-28
-1,084
-172
-197
22
-85
-38
Jun-23
52
-16
109
128
-112
-41
297
16
97
219
-220
112
633
58
-45
-990
94
21
15
-7
-42
Jul-23
-45
-97
37
85
-42
-10
318
21
32
277
58
88
660
27
-66
-966
24
-80
45
30
32
Aug-23
-5
40
49
91
6
-0
333
15
32
299
22
165
627
-33
-62
-881
85
-125
49
5
-3
Sep-23
-16
-12
106
159
68
-2
300
-33
-10
317
18
189
514
-113
-133
-1,086
-205
-197
39
-11
-8
Regional Fuel Oil S/D Balances
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-24
-33
-16
-42
157
-2
-46
265
-36
-58
460
143
151
487
-27
-179
-927
159
95
52
13
33
-75
-43
-6
109
-49
8
323
58
-38
485
25
-13
662
175
6
-868
58
267
65
13
55
-68
8
-111
185
76
91
332
9
-35
394
-91
167
664
2
14
-901
-33
233
80
15
38
-73
-5
-99
100
-85
46
349
17
62
441
47
244
715
51
122
-953
-51
127
69
-11
76
Feb-24
Mar-24
Apr-24
May-24
Jun-24
30
103
93
115
15
77
307
-43
1
408
-33
223
730
15
-3
-892
61
225
98
30
71
13
-17
-57
86
-28
35
339
32
-17
459
51
98
701
-29
2
-962
-70
192
132
33
122
-23
-36
-103
135
49
-18
305
-34
-4
710
251
232
661
-40
48
-964
-2
-51
183
51
75
-5
18
-73
248
113
8
287
-19
6
495
-214
56
696
35
121
-899
65
186
180
-2
158
3
8
-48
131
-116
4
300
13
3
408
-87
189
741
44
107
-756
142
233
166
-14
151
Jul-24
-27
-31
18
101
-30
16
320
20
2
436
28
159
735
-6
75
-735
22
231
140
-26
95
Aug-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
Nov-24
Dec-24
14
41
19
119
18
28
332
12
-1
337
-100
38
692
-43
65
-737
-2
144
125
-15
75
2
-12
19
202
83
43
304
-28
4
355
18
38
612
-80
98
-982
-245
104
96
-29
57
-14
-16
19
203
1
46
267
-37
2
586
231
126
597
-15
110
-859
123
67
94
-2
42
-58
-44
17
132
-71
24
325
58
2
616
31
132
758
161
96
-895
-35
-26
101
7
37
-50
8
18
196
64
11
329
4
-3
494
-122
101
753
-5
89
-874
21
27
92
-9
13
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