UNITED STATES ECONOMIC CRISES 2020-2023
Ong Kit Hang
ABSTRACT
Since 2020, the United States (US) has faced numerous economic crises with a rapid frequency that is
unprecedented in history. It is highly speculated that the country will have an overall downturn in its
economic outlook soon, between 2024 and 2025, a result snowballed and accumulated by these small
economic crises that happened between 2020 and 2023 and other macroeconomic factors. The economic
downturn, if occurs, would inevitably create negative chain reactions in countries that have close
economic relations with the United States, such as stagnation in capital flows, failure in banks and
financial institutions, deflation in real estate, sluggishness in economic growth, etc., posing a great
possibility to a global financial meltdown. To make a good forecast about the United States’ economic
situation, it is important to first understand what happened in prior years. Hence, this article does not
intend to draw conclusions about the United States’ future economic outlook but rather to make a clear
and detailed explanation of the economic crises that happened in the country from 2020 until 2023.
OBJECTIVE
The objective of this thesis is to identify the economic crises that occurred in the United States between
2020 and 2023. This analysis will be conducted through an extensive review of relevant literature and
a meticulous examination of news sources to provide a thorough understanding of the economic
challenges faced by the country during this period.
1. YEAR 2020
1.1 COVID-19 and Recession
In the beginning of 2020, the explosion of COVID-19, a virus with rapid global transmission, severely
struck the global economy, including the US (Zoungrana & Ouobaa, 2022). From mid- to late-March,
a quarter of the US population was under a “stay-at-home” order to sever the spread, a measure that
swiftly expanded to encompass the majority of the nation by April (Masters et al., 2020). The President
of the US (POTUS) issued travel restrictions for both international and local travel from time to time to
control the spread of COVID-19. The travel restriction subsequently reduced regular domestic flights
to a significant level, approximately 50% around 31 March and 30% throughout April. Research showed
that business closures surged at the beginning of the pandemic (Decker & Haltiwanger, 2022; Dunphy
et al., 2022; Abouk & Heydari, 2021). The US recorded an unemployment rate of an unprecedented
14.7% in April 2020. In February 2020, the National Bureau of Economic Research noticed that the
peak of the US’s economic cycle, which lasted for 128 months, ended in that month, signalling the start
of a recession.
To save the country from recession, the US Congress enacted the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and
Economic Security Act (CARES Act) on 19 March 2020 and the American Rescue Plan Act on 24
February 2021 to legalize the distribution of direct and indirect monetary aid to US residents in need,
including three times of direct stimulus payments to individuals and families and supplemental
payments to those unemployed. According to USASpending.gov, the US federal government has spent
USD 4.33 trillion out of total budgetary resources of USD 4.62 trillion in response to the COVID-19
challenges as of 30 September 2023. Numerous studies revealed that many US corporations slimmed
down the number of employees, adopted hybrid or fully remote work styles, and enabled digital
transformation to survive the dismal business environment posed by COVID-19 (Tomić & Vizinger,
2023; Chan et al., 2023; Marcus, 2023).
1
1.2 Stock Market Crashes
In March 2020, there were three major stock market crashes caused by the panic sell as the pandemic
went on, nicknamed Black Monday I, Black Thursday, and Black Monday II (Ashna & Mugdha, 2022).
On 23 March 2020, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI Average) reached the bottom of 18,591.93,
a number that has not been seen since 9 November 2016, which closed at 18,589.689.
Table 1: DJI Average in Black Monday I, Black Thursday, and Black Monday II.
Name
Date
Change
Change
(%)
March −2,013.76 -7.79
Open
Black
Monday I
Black
Thursday
Black
Monday
II
9
24,992.36
2020
12 March −2,352.60 −9.99% 22,184.71
2020
16 March −2,997.10 −12.93% 20,917.53
2020
High
Low
Close
24,992.36
23,706.07
23,851.02
22,837.95
21,154.46
21,200.62
21,768.28
20,116.46
20,188.52
(Source: DJI Average, Yahoo Finance, retrieved 20 December 2023)
The Standard and Poor’s 500 (SP500), a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of
the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States, was also severely affected in
March. It caused the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to trigger a stock trading mechanism known
as circuit breaker, which is the halting of the SP500 stocks trading for 15 minutes after the SP500
decreased 7% against the prior day’s closing price (Bloom et al., 2020). And the circuit breaker did not
happen for once, but four times in a single month of March 2020 (Schneider, 2020).
1.3 Interest Rate Adjustment and Asset Buyback
On 15 March 2020, to deal with the harsh economic challenges posed by COVID-19, the Federal Open
Market Committee (FOMC) of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Federal Reserve)
announced a reduction in the federal funds rate to 0% to 0.25%. According to the Research Department
at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), the effective federal funds rate was maintained below
1% from May 2020 until May 2022. This monetary policy adjustment was implemented with the
primary objectives of supporting economic activity, sustaining robust labour market conditions, and
facilitating the inflation to the FOMC's 2% target. Additionally, the Federal Reserve announced to
employ its comprehensive toolkits to ensure the flow of credit to households and businesses starting by
increasing its holdings of Treasury securities by a minimum of USD 500 billion and agency mortgagebacked securities (MBS) by at least USD 200 billion. Furthermore, FOMC would also reinvest principal
payments from its existing holdings.
2. YEAR 2021
In the fiscal year 2021, the United States encountered sustained impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic.
While the economic landscape remained relatively stable, noteworthy occurrences were marked by the
enactment of the American Rescue Plan Act, a fiscal stimulus package amounting to USD 1.9 trillion
(Hendrix, 2022), and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, a legislative initiative allocating USD
1.2 trillion in funding, both introduced by the POTUS (Ponciano, 2022). Concurrently, the Federal
Reserve continued the maintenance of a near-zero interest rates and asset purchase programs throughout
2021. Additionally, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in the US experienced
a surge, reaching 7.5% over the course of the year—an escalation constituting the most substantial 12month increase since February 1982. This upswing raised concerns about the emergence of inflationary
pressures in the country's economy (Mutikani, 2021). Lastly, the global business recovery following the
easing of COVID-19-era restrictions heightened worldwide demand for fossil fuel energy, causing the
Brent oil price to exceed USD 80 per barrel in September 2021, a precursor to the 2022 energy crisis
(Ozili & Ozen, 2023).
2
3. YEAR 2022
3.1 Ukraine-Russia War and China Lockdown
Russia, a significant energy exporter, is the world’s second-largest natural gas producer and contributed
12% of the daily worldwide crude oil production (Amelya, 2022). Moreover, both Ukraine and Russia
were vital global suppliers of agricultural commodities. The Ukraine-Russia War commenced on 24
February 2022, precipitated a disruption in the international supply chains of commodities, thereby
incited an escalation in global commodity prices. Prior and during the war, a surge in panic-driven
procurement of crude oil was observed as crude oil-importing countries afraid that Russia might incur
sanction for invading Ukraine, thereby impeding its capacity to export oil. This heightened demand
curtailed the global crude oil reserve, consequently leading to a significant elevation in the price of
crude oil, reaching a high of USD 140 per barrel on 7 March 2022 (Bagchi & Paul, 2023).
China, responsible for nearly one-third of global manufacturing output, had been implementing a zeroCOVID policy since the identification of the first COVID-19 patient in early 2020 (Wang, 2022). ZeroCOVID policy is a proactive approach of early detection, timely diagnosis, swift isolation, and prompt
treatment during the stage of normalized prevention and control with the resolute objective to
effectively curtail the ongoing spread of the epidemic within the community (Wang et al, 2023). The
strict lockdown measures in China resulted in a significant disruption to the global supply chain,
especially to sectors of automotive, industrial products and services, consumer goods and retail
(Korosteleva, 2022), thereby contributing to the escalation of global inflation (Klebnikov, 2021).
3.2 Energy crisis and Inflation
Since1980s, the globalization paradigm has significantly influenced energy as a commodified product
(Shahbaz, 2018). However, awareness of the adverse impacts on climate change prompted a global
commitment to diminish reliance on fossil fuel extraction by alternating to renewable energies for the
last three decades (Kühne et al., 2022). During the COVID-19 era, global energy consumption was
reduced due to travel restrictions to mitigate the transmission of the virus. After the easing of restrictions
by many countries, a sudden surge in worldwide energy demand ensued, especially in European
countries, which, lacking abundant energy sources, heavily depend on imports (Ozili, 2023; Markowski,
2023). The situation was worsened by Western sanctions on Russia's oil and gas exports after the
country's invasion of Ukraine (Dabrowski, 2022). Despite heavy investments in renewable energy by
European countries, the renewable technology was either immature or insufficient in scale when
compared to fossil fuel energy, leading to rapid depletion (Ozili, 2023). Consequently, the globalization
of energy, rebound of post-pandemic energy demand, the Russia-Ukraine War, sanctions on Russia, and
the immaturity of renewable energy technology collectively precipitated a global energy crisis (Deloitte
Netherlands, n.d.; IEA, n.d.). Concurrently, the zero-COVID lockdown in China further contributed to
the exacerbation of global inflation (Korosteleva, 2022). US, affected by these dynamics, reported an
average Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 6.2% and 6.1% in the first and second halves of the year 2022,
respectively (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics).
3.3 Interest Rate Adjustment
In the fiscal year 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics documented an inflation rate of 6.5% for all
items. Noteworthy contributors included fuel oil, airline fares, and utility (piped) gas service,
constituting 41.5%, 28.5%, and 19.3%, respectively, of the overall inflation trend. In response to the
rising inflation rate deviating from the targeted 2%, FOMC announced on 4 May 2022 to implement an
adjustment to the fund rate, raising it from 0% to a range of 0.75% to 1%. Starting from this precise
adjustment until the latest decision on 1 November 2023, FOMC has raised the interest rate 11 times,
culminating in a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the most rapid rise in 40-years, since 1980s (Davidson, 2023).
3
3.4 Crypto Bubble
Finally, another notable economic event in 2022 was the bursting of the cryptocurrency bubble, marked
by a significant correction. The total market capitalization of all cryptocurrency assets plummeting from
USD 2 trillion on 29 March to USD 800 billion by 10 November (De Mortanges Charles, 2023). In the
same year, FTX, the third-largest cryptocurrency exchange established by Sam Bankman-Fried,
managing a daily active trading volume of USD 10 billion and a hedge fund valued at USD 14.6 billion,
was exposed as a fraudulent scheme. On 11 November 2022, FTX filed for bankruptcy, triggering a
chain reaction within the crypto industry and resulting in a rapid decline of over 30% within hours (Fu
et al, 2023).
4. YEAR 2023
4.1 Bank Failures
In early 2023, four banks succumbed to substantial bank runs, a phenomenon expedited by advanced
deposit withdrawal technology that particularly favoured depositor customers, especially to large
corporate depositors. It was noted that the corporate depositors of these failed banks were in specific or
interconnected industries, prompting them to withdraw funds co-ordinately from the banks when certain
triggering events occurred. For Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank, they majorly served crypto-asset
firms, and their bank runs were triggered by the crypto bubble abovementioned, exacerbated by the
collapse of FTX in November 2022 (Rose, 2023).
Another bank was Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which served majorly venture-capital corporates. The
FOMC maintained high interest rate since 2022, causing a decline in the value of US Treasury Bonds.
SVB, having heavily invested US bonds before 2022, was forced to offload its bonds holding to
Goldman Sachs. The original valuation of these holdings was USD 23.97 billion, but they were
ultimately sold for USD 21.45 billion (Tayeb, 2023). The USD 1.8 billion loss of SVB led to the
commence of bank run. However, the real genesis of SVB’s bank run lay in widespread speculation
about its solvency, fueled by the announcement that the bank needed USD 2.25 billion to shore up its
balance sheet caused by the bank run (Son et al., 2023; Smith, 2023). At the same time, news that a high
proportion (94%) of SVB deposits were uninsured swiftly circulated via X (f. k. a. Twitter), further
inducing fear and panic among depositors (Yerushalmy, 2023). This fear, in turn, triggered a bank run
at First Republic Bank (FRC), another institution with a significant portion of uninsured deposits (68%),
culminating in its eventual failure. (Evers-Hillstrom, 2023; Hogg, 2023).
As a result, Silvergate Bank was shut down (Sigalos, 2023); Signature Bank was sold to Flagstar Bank,
a wholly owned subsidiary of New York Community Bancorp Inc (Federal Deposit Insurance
Corporation, 2023); SVB was sold to First Citizens BancShares (Dan, 2023); and FRC was sold to
JPMorgan Chase Bank (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, 2023). According to Pranshu
Maheshwari in 2023, FRC, SVB, and Signature Bank are the 2nd, 3nd, and 4nd largest bank failures
since 2000.
3.2 Debt Crisis
On 19 January 2023, the US reached the threshold of its national debt limit, compelling the Secretary
of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, to invoke a series of financial mechanisms termed as "extraordinary
measures" to avert an imminent default on the nation's debt (Luhby, 2023). Only until 3 June 2023,
POTUS ratified a bill to temporarily suspend the US debt limit to a quantum of USD 31.4 trillion until
1 January 2025. This legislative intervention served as a provisional resolution, effectively mitigating
the crisis at hand (Megerian, 2023).
Nevertheless, the debt crisis is far from being resolved. As of the composition of this article, the US
Debt Clock.Org recorded an astronomical USD 39. 939 trillion. It is estimated that, if the FOMC
remains the high interest rate in 2024, the annualized interest payments on the US debt will come to
USD 1 trillion in 2024 (Eyermann, 2023). The high US debts raised concerns about the nation's
repayment capacity among rating agencies, leading Moody’s and Fitch to downgrade the US credit
4
rating (Fitch Ratings, 2023; Barbuscia & Shalal, 2023). Data provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of
New York indicates that US household debt alone, reached an unprecedented USD 17.29 trillion in the
third quarter of 2023, with mortgage loans and credit card loans amounting to USD 12.14 trillion and
USD 1.08 trillion, respectively. It is noticeable that mortgage loans complied 70% of the US household
debt and is nearly 1.5% of the 2008 peak (The Kobeissi Letter, 2023). Meanwhile, the delinquency rate
of credit cards is observed to surpass pre-pandemic levels, primarily ascribed to millennials resorting
to credit cards for paying off auto and student loans. (Haughwout et al, 2023).
CONCLUSION
In retrospect, all US economic crises from 2020 to 2023 are interconnected and traced back to the
COVID-19 pandemic. Following Chairman Jerome Powell's latest FOMC press statement on 13
December 2023, many financial experts anticipate a 0.75% rate cut in 2024, sparking a pre-Christmas
stock market revival (Cox, 2023). However, giant figures in the industry like Nouriel Roubini, Michael
Burry, and Robert Kiyosaki warn of an impending US recession despite a general positive economic
outlook (Vandenboss, 2023; Investor, 2013; Pringle, 2023). Global strategist Albert Edwards also
foresees a 2024 technology stock bubble fuelled by artificial intelligence (Karaahmetovic, 2023). It is
also worth to mention that the pandemic is still ongoing and could be recurring in a big scale. Recently,
there has been an increase in cases of an unknown respiratory disease in China (Lodhi, 2023), and a
new variant of COVID-19 known as JN-1 is spreading globally (Katella, 2023). External socio-political
and macroeconomic factors, such as US election in 2024 (Wolf, 2023), real estate bubbles in China (Lu,
2023) and German (Price, 2023), GDP drops in Europe (Rees, 2023), tensions between China and
Taiwan (Djuyandi et al, n.d.), and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea (BBC News, 2023), pose additional
economic risks. These factors collectively could readily precipitate a global economic downturn and
destabilize the existing financial infrastructure we have known.
5
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