lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 1 Solutions OSCM Purchasing Supply Chain Mgt (Metropolitan State University of Denver) Studocu is not sponsored or endorsed by any college or university Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 01 - Operations and Supply Chain Management CHAPTER 1 OPERATIONS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT Discussion Questions 1. Using Exhibit 1.2 as a model, describe the source-make-deliver-return relationships in the following systems: a. An airline Source: Make: Deliver: Return: Aircraft manufacturer, in-flight food, repair parts, computer systems Aircraft and flight crew scheduling, ground services provided at airports, aircraft maintenance and repair Outbound and arriving passenger service, baggage handling Resolve any post-service issues such as lost or damaged luggage b. An automobile manufacturer Source: Suppliers of components and raw materials Make: Manufacturing of vehicles and components or subassemblies to be sold as spare parts Deliver: Delivery to and sales from dealerships, delivery of spare parts to the wholesale system Return: Warranty and recall repairs, trade-ins c. A hospital Source: Make: Deliver: Return: Medical supplies, cleaning services, disposal services, food services, qualified personnel Inpatient rooms, outpatient clinics, emergency room, operating rooms Scheduling patients, providing treatment, ambulance service, family counseling Billing errors, follow up visits d. An insurance company Source: Supplies needed for the office, underwriters, legal authority to operate Make: Establish policy guidelines and pricing, field agent/representative and facility network, develop Internet service capabilities, establish preferred vehicle repair service network Deliver: Meet with and advise clients, write policies, process and pay claims Return: Refund of overpayments 2. Define the service package of your college or university. What is its strongest element? What is its weakest one? The categories with examples are: Supporting facility - location, buildings, labs, parking Facilitating goods – class schedules, computers, books, chalk Explicit services – classes with qualified instructors, placement offices 01-1 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 01 - Operations and Supply Chain Management Implicit services – status and reputation (e.g., Ivy League schools) At Indiana University and the University of Southern California, among their strongest elements are their business schools and their Operations Management programs (of course). Both also have very dedicated alumni networks. A weak element of Indiana University is its weak football program; for USC, weak elements are on-campus parking and housing. 3. What service industry has impressed you the most with its innovativeness? Our vote goes to cruise lines which have introduced such onboard innovations as wave machines for belly boarding and rock climbing walls, as well as all sorts of other amenities to keep cruisers involved. The industry is doing record business as well. Some of the standout companies in less innovative industries are Bank of America (has a formalized research program to try out new customer services/amenities such as video screens in next to teller lines), Intuit (e.g., putting Quicken money management software online), Ikea, JetBlue Airlines, and Progressive Insurance (discussed later in the book). 4. What is product-service bundling and what are the benefits to customers? Product-service bundling is adding value-added services to a firm’s product offerings to create more value for the customer. This provides benefits in two areas. First, this differentiates the organization from the competition. Secondly, these services tie customers to the organization in a positive way. Alternatively, bundling can also involve adding products to a service, for example, adding the sale of convenience items and snacks at a hotel. 5. What is the difference between a service and a good? A service is an intangible process (you can’t hold it in your hands), while a good is the physical output of a process. Some service businesses also provide a physical good as part of the service, like a restaurant. Also, mots manufacturers of goods provide services for after-sales support, like computer tech support or automobile warranty service. So while a service and a good are definitely distinguishable, customers will often encounter both in their experiences with a company. 6. Some people tend to use the terms effectiveness and efficiency interchangeably, though we’ve seen they are different concepts. But is there any relationship at all between them? Can a firm be effective but inefficient? Very efficient but essentially ineffective? Both? Neither? Firms can be anywhere on these two dimensions. It is possible for a firm to be the best at what they do in serving their market, but be very wasteful in doing so. Alternatively, a firm could squeeze every last dollar out of their processes but fail to deliver what the market expects and desires. Of course, the best firms will provide the goods and services that the market desires, exactly as the market desires, and do so at a minimum cost. Firms that are both inefficient and ineffective do not survive for long in any market. 01-2 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 01 - Operations and Supply Chain Management 7. Two of the efficiency ratios mentioned in the chapter are the receivable turnover ratio and the inventory turnover ratio. While they are two completely separate measures, they are very similar in one way. What is the common thread between these two? (There are a number of answers that students may come up with, from simplistic to more thoughtful. Following is one of the latter.) Both are measuring the average amount of a valuable asset that is not generating value for the company. Accounts receivable are an asset, but they do not create value for the firm until the money is received. Reducing the average amount of accounts receivable frees up that money for use by the company on a recurring basis. Inventory is another asset, but while inventory is being held by the company it is not making any money for the firm. Reducing inventory allows the firm to invest the money that would otherwise be spent on the inventory. 8. Look at the job postings at http://www.apics.org and evaluate the opportunities for an OSCM major with several years of experience. There are pages and pages of these in the APICS Career Center. Here are some examples: Nacelle Product Materials Leader General Electric Corporation US - Hattiesburg, Ohio The Nacelle Product Materials Leader will demonstrate leadership in communicating business goals, programs, and processes for an area or business segment. In this role, you will utilize your experience or expertise to solve problems, develop and execute objectives for self and others, and have the ability to effect short-term and some long-term business goals ... May 12, 2015 Buyer – Supply Chain Froedtert Health US - Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin As SUPPLY CHAIN BUYER, you will be responsible for the acquisition of supplies, equipment and services in a timely manner, ensuring price, quality and delivery. This position serves as resource to departments regarding procurement practices that meet customer needs ... May 07, 2015 Demand Planning Manager Cintas Corporation US – Jackson, Mississippi The Demand Planning Manager leads the development of strategy, processes, and tools for the company’s key forecasting activities within the site. This position will represent the site demand planning in key cross-functional decisions, including short- and long-term strategy discussions, product initiatives, strategic business planning, and systems integration. ... May 11, 2015 01-3 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 01 - Operations and Supply Chain Management Operations Team Leader - Supply Chain Parker Aerospace US – Dublin, Georgia The Site Supply Chain leader role is responsible for S&OP, Planning, Production control, purchasing, Warehousing and logistics functions at the Dublin, Georgia location. This role plays a key role in the overall success of the Dublin Operation. The individual will lead a team of 1215 employees across different supply chain functions... May 08, 2015 Production/Operations Planner CG Industrial Specialties US - Nationwide Reporting to the Operations Manager or Branch Manager; this position is responsible for preparing assembly schedules for shop technicians; coordinate material requirements with purchasing as well as coordinate shipping / receiving activities with warehouse staff. May 08, 2015 9. Recent outsourcing of parts and services that had previously been produced internally is addressed by which current issue facing operations and supply management today? The coordination of relationships between mutually supportive but separate organizations. 10. What factors account for the resurgence of interest in OSCM today? With companies facing competition on a global scale, and ever-advancing manufacturing and information technologies, firms realize the competitive advantage their OSCM functions can provide if properly managed. Many have found that the same old way of doing business leaves them unable to compete successfully. The 2011 tsunami in Japan and the 2015 LA ports closure have also brought to the forefront how important supply chains are, as well as the negative economic impact that disruptions in the supply chain can cause. 11. As the field of OSCM has advanced, new concepts have been applied to help companies compete in a number of ways, including the advertisement of the firm’s products or services. One recent concept to gain the attention of companies is promoting sustainability. Discuss how you have seen the idea of sustainability used by companies to advertise their goods or services. There of course will be a number of examples that students will bring up, though they may need some prodding to jog their memories. Some examples to start with might be IBM’s “I’m an IBMer” campaign where they advertise how they are “building a smarter planet.” Bottled water manufacturers have reduced the amount of plastic used in many of their products, thus saving production and distribution costs, but also allowing them to advertise how the new bottles are better for the environment because they result in less waste. 01-4 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 01 - Operations and Supply Chain Management 01-5 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 01 - Operations and Supply Chain Management Objective Questions 1. What are the three elements that require integration to be successful in operations and supply chain management? Strategy, Processes, and Analytics 2. Operations and supply chain management is concerned with the design and management of the entire system that has what function? Produces a product or delivers a service 3. Consider the following financial data from the past year for Midwest Outdoor Equipment Corporation. Gross Income Total Sales Total Credit Sales Net Income Cost of Goods Sold Total Assets Average Inventory Average Receivables $25,240,000 24,324,000 18,785,000 2,975,000 12,600,000 10,550,000 2,875,000 3,445,000 a. Compute the receivable turnover ratio. $ 18,785,000 =5.453 $ 3,445,000 b. Compute the inventory turnover ratio. $ 12,600,000 =4.383 $ 2,875,000 c. Compute the asset turnover ratio. $ 24,324,000 =2.306 $ 10,550,000 01-6 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 01 - Operations and Supply Chain Management 4. A manufacturing company has entered into a new contract with a major supplier of raw materials used in the manufacturing process. Under the new arrangement, called vendor managed inventory, the supplier manages their raw material inventory inside the manufacturer’s plant, and only bills the manufacturer when the manufacturer consumes the raw material. How is this likely to affect the manufacturer’s inventory turnover ratio? This will reduce the average amount of money the firm has invested in raw material, so the inventory turnover ratio should increase. 5. What is the name of the process in which one company studies the processes of another firm in order to identify best practices? Benchmarking 6. A company has recently implemented an automated online billing and payment processing system for orders it ships to customers. As a result, it has reduced the average number of days between billing a customer and receiving payment by 10 days. How will this affect the receivables turnover ratio? Quicker payments will reduce the average amount of accounts receivables, so the receivables turnover ratio will increase. 7. Match the following OSCM job titles with the appropriate duties and responsibilities. C Plant manager D Supply chain manager A E Project manager Business process improvement analyst B Logistics manager A: Plans and coordinates staff activities such as new product development and new facility location B: Oversees the movement of goods throughout the supply chain C: Oversees the workforce and resources required to produce the firm’s products D: Negotiates contracts with vendors and coordinates the flow of material inputs to the production process E: Applies the tools of lean production to reduce cycle time and eliminate waste in a process 8. What high-level OSCM position manager is responsible for working with the CEO and company president to determine the company’s competitive strategy? Chief Operating Officer 01-7 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 01 - Operations and Supply Chain Management 9. Order the following major concepts that have helped define the OSCM field on a time line. Use 1 for the earliest to be introduced, and 5 for the most recent. 3 1 5 2 4 Supply chain management Manufacturing strategy Business analytics Total quality management Electronic commerce 10. Which major OSCM concept can be described as an integrated set of activities designed to achieve high-volume production using minimal inventories of parts that arrive at workstations exactly when they are needed? Just-in-time (JIT) production 11. ___________________________ leverage the vast amount of data in enterprise resource planning systems to make decisions related to managing resources. Business analytics 12. Which current issue in OSCM relates to the ability of a firm to maintain balance in a system, considering the ongoing economic, employee, and environmental viability of the firm? Sustainability 01-8 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 01 - Operations and Supply Chain Management Analytics Exercise: Comparing Companies Using Wall Street Efficiency Measures Each student is asked to pick an industry and compare three companies within that industry based on income per employee, revenue per employee, receivable turnover, inventory turnover, and asset turnover. The following is typical of what you might obtain: BP Shell ExxonMobil Oil Industry Net Income/Employee 315,300 343,533 414,328 289,320 Revenue/Employee 4.6 Mil 5.2 mil 4.7 mil 3 Mil Receivable Turnover 9.38 6.29 13.17 13.5 Inventory Turnover 11.92 13.59 21.91 15.5 Asset Turnover 1.92 1.36 1.41 1.1 Management Efficiency Students are then asked to identify which company appears to have the most productive employees. With this data we see that ExxonMobil does very well in generating $414,328 net income per employee. Comparing Shell to ExxonMobil we can observe that ExxonMobil appears to be more efficient since it can generate more net income on lower revenue/employee, at least compared to Shell. The inventory turnover is highest for ExxonMobil indicating that the company is the most efficient from an operations and supply chain processes view. ExxonMobil also appears to do a good job in collecting receivables as well, thus supporting the idea that the company is very efficient. BP seems to do a little better in asset turnover, which relates to the use of its facility and equipment assets. But ExxonMobil is very good especially in comparison to the oil industry average. Overall, ExxonMobil appears to be the most efficient, so the other companies might find it valuable to benchmark the company’s processes. Of course, the data generated by each student will be different and an interesting interchange can be developed with students each presenting what they found from their research. It is very interesting to do comparisons across industries; retailers versus oil companies, and computer makes versus software companies, for example. 01-9 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 SMChap 002 - textbook answer Ch.2 Financial Management (Lingnan University) Studocu is not sponsored or endorsed by any college or university Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 02 - Strategy CHAPTER 2 STRATEGY Discussion Questions 1. What is meant by a “triple-bottom-line” strategy? Give an example of a company that has adopted this type of strategy. A triple-bottom-line strategy places emphasis on a company’s environmental and social responsibilities as well as the traditional bottom line of economic prosperity. It recognizes that the long-term health of the firm is interdependent with the health of the environment and the betterment of society. There are many examples – one if Kraft Foods. For details see their 2010 report: http://www.kraftfoodscompany.com/SiteCollectionDocuments/pdf/kraftfoods_responsibility_rep ort.pdf 2. Find examples where companies have used features related to environmental sustainability to “win” new customers. Car companies use environmental concerns in marketing ads. The development of hybrid and flex-fuel cars is one way they have operationalized those concerns. Consumer goods companies display the “made with recycled material” logo on the packaging. Bottled water manufacturers are using and advertising bottles made with less plastic. 3. What are the major priorities associated with operations and supply chain strategy? How has their relationship to each other changed over the years? The four major imperatives are cost, quality, delivery, and flexibility. In the sixties, these four imperatives were viewed from a tradeoffs perspective. For example, this meant that improving quality would result in higher cost, and in many cases that was true. However, advances in manufacturing and information technologies since then have reduced the size of those tradeoffs, allowing firms to improve on several or all of these imperatives simultaneously, gaining greater competitive advantage than was possible 50 years ago. The problem now becomes one of prioritizing and managing towards orderly improvement. 4. Why does the “proper” operations and supply chain strategy keep changing for companies that are world-class competitors? The top three priorities have generally remained the same over time: make it good, make it fast, and deliver it on time. Others have changed. Part of this may be explained by realizing that world class organizations have achieved excellence in these three areas and are, therefore, focusing attention on some of the more minor areas to gain competitive advantage. The changes in the minor priorities may result from recognizing opportunities or from changes in customer desires or expectations. 2-1 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 02 - Strategy 5. What is meant by the expressions order winners and order qualifiers? What was the order winner(s) for your last purchase of a product or service? Order winners are dimensions that differentiate the product or service or services of one firm from another. Order qualifiers are dimensions that are used to screen a product or service as a candidate for purchase. Order qualifiers get a company’s “foot in the door.” Order winners are what make the sale. Obviously, answers will vary for the order winners from your last purchase. 6. Pick a company that you are familiar with and describe its operations strategy and how it relates to winning customers. Describe specific activities used by the company that support the strategy. Student answers will vary widely based on their experiences and views. It might be helpful for a classroom exercise to assign certain companies to a number of students/teams and compare their answers in class. 7. At times in the past, the dollar showed relative weakness with respect to foreign currencies, such as the yen, mark, and pound. This stimulated exports. Why would long-term reliance on a lower valued dollar be at best a short-term solution to the competitiveness problem? This approach is dependent on economic policies of other nations. This is a fragile dependency. A long-term approach is to increase manufacturing and service industry productivity in order to regain competitive advantage. At a national level, solutions appear to lie in reversing attitudes. At a firm level, competitive weapons are consistent quality, high performance, dependable delivery, competitive pricing, and design flexibility. 8. Identify an operations and supply chain - related "disruption" that recently impacted a company. What could the company have done to have minimized the impact of this type of disruption prior to it occurring? The March 2011 tsunami that struck Japan was geographically concentrated but had global impact on multiple firms, many of which had no physical presence at all in the affected area. Examples include firms that had sole source agreements with suppliers in the affected area. The tsunami left these companies scrambling to find new suppliers to feed into their supply chains. These firms could have reduced the impact of the tsunami by having a few high-quality, dependable suppliers located in different geographical regions. There are many other examples that could be taken from this one event. A simple Internet search will provide plenty of material for discussion. 9. What do we mean when we say productivity is a “relative” measure? For productivity to be meaningful, it must be compared with something else. The comparisons can be either intra-company as in the case of year-to-year comparisons of the same measure, or intercompany as in the case of benchmarking. Intercompany comparisons of single factor productivity measures can be somewhat tenuous due to differences in accounting practices (especially when comparing with foreign competitors) and the balance of labor to capital resources. Total factor productivity measures are somewhat more robust for comparison purposes. 2-2 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 02 - Strategy Objective Questions 1. Shell Oil Company’s motto “People, Planet and Profit” is a real-world implementation of what OSCM concept? Triple bottom line 2. A firm’s strategy should describe how it intends to create and sustain value for ________________________. its current shareholders 3. What is the term used to describe individuals or organizations that are influenced by the actions of the firm? Stakeholders 4. How often should a company develop and refine the operations and supply chain strategy. At least yearly 5. What is the term used to describe product attributes that attract certain customers and can be used to form the competitive position of a firm? Competitive dimensions 6. What are the two main competitive dimensions related to product delivery? Delivery speed and delivery reliability 7. What are the two characteristics of a product or service that define quality? Design quality and process quality 8. A diagram that shows how a company’s strategy is delivered by a set of supporting activities is called a _____________________________. activity-system map 2-3 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 02 - Strategy 9. In implementing supply chain strategy a firm must minimize its total cost without compromising the needs of its ____________________________. Customers 10. What is defined as the likelihood of disruption that would impact the ability of a company to continuously supply products or services? Supply chain risk 11. Risks caused by natural or manmade disasters, and therefore impossible to reliably predict, are called ______________________. Disruption risks 12. Match the following common risks with the appropriate mitigation strategy. E Country risks A: Detailed tracking, alternate suppliers D Regulatory risk B: Carefully select and monitor suppliers A Logistics failure C: Contingency planning, insurance C Natural disaster D: Good legal advice, compliance B Major quality failure E: Currency hedging, local sourcing 13. The assessment of the probability of a negative event against the aggregate severity of the related loss is called _____________________________. Risk mapping 2-4 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 02 - Strategy 14. As Operations Manager, you are concerned about being able to meet sales requirements in the coming months. You have just been given the following production report. JAN FEB MAR APR Units Produced 2175 1675 2675 2875 Hours per Machine 307 186 382 307 4 6 5 6 Number of Machines Find the average of the monthly productivity figures (units per machine hour). To answer this we need to realize that the measure of hours given is per machine, so we have to multiply that by the number of machines in each period to get the total machine hours in each period. Those figures are used in the calculations below. Average productivity: (2175/1228 + 1675/1116 + 2675/1910 + 2875/1842)/4 Average productivity (1.77+1.50+1.40+1.56)/4= 1.56 units per machine hour 15. Sailmaster makes high-performance sails for competitive windsurfers. Below is information about the inputs and outputs for one model, the Windy 2000. Units sold Sale price each Total labor hours Wage rate Total materials Total energy 1,224 $1,707 46,681 $12/hour $60,500 $4,012 Calculate the productivity in sales revenue/labor expense. We have to do some interim calculations here. Sales revenue is calculated by multiplying units sold by the unit sales price. Labor expense is calculated by multiplying labor hours by the wage rate. (1224*1707) / (46681*12) = 3.73 2-5 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 02 - Strategy 16. Live Trap Corporation received the data below for its rodent cage production unit. Find the total productivity? Output Input 49,000 cages Production time 644 labor hours Sales price: $3.90 per unit Wages $7.90 per hour Raw materials (total cost) $31,500 Component parts (total cost) $15,250 Total productivity could be expressed two ways here based on how you express output: in units sold, or dollars of sales. Units sold: 49,000 / ((644 * $7.90) + 31,500 + 15,250) = 0.95 units sold per dollar input Dollars of sales: (49000*3.9) / ((644 * $7.90) + 31,500 + 15,250) = 3.69 dollars in sales per dollar input 17. Two types of cars (Deluxe and Limited) were produced by a car manufacturer last year. Quantities sold, price per unit, and labor hours follow. What is the labor productivity for each car? Explain the problem(s) associated with the labor productivity. Deluxe car Limited car Labor, Deluxe Labor, Limited QUANTITY 4,000 units sold 6,000 units sold 20,000 hours 30,000 hours $/UNIT $8,000/car $9,500/car $12/hour $14/hour Labor Productivity – units/hour Model Deluxe Car Output in Units 4,000 Input in Labor Hours 20,000 Productivity (Output/Input) 0.20 units/hour Limited Car 6,000 30,000 0.20 units/hour Output in Dollars 4,000($8,000)= $32,000,000 Input in Dollars 20,000($12.00)= $240,000 Productivity (Output/Input) 133.33 6,000($9,500)= 30,000($14.00)= 135.71 Labor Productivity – dollars Model Deluxe Car Limited Car 2-6 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 02 - Strategy $57,000,000 $420,000 The labor productivity measure is a conventional measure of productivity. However, as a partial measure, it may not provide all of the necessary information that is needed. For example, increases in productivity could result from decreases in quality, and/or increases in material cost. 18. A U.S. manufacturing company operating a subsidiary in an LDC (less-developed country) shows the following results: Sales (units) Labor (hours) Raw materials (currency) Capital equipment (hours) U.S. 90,000 20,105 $19,550 63,000 LDC 20,010 15,120 FC 21,000 5,120 a. Calculate partial labor and capital productivity figures for the parent and subsidiary. Do the results seem misleading? Labor Productivity Country U.S. Output in Units 90,000 Input in Hours 20,105 Productivity (Output/Input) 4.48 units/hour LDC 20,010 15,120 1.32 units/hour U.S. Output in Units 90,000 Input in Hours 63,000 Productivity (Output/Input) 1.43 units/hour LDC 20,010 5,120 3.91 units/hour Capital Equipment Productivity Country Yes. You might expect the capital equipment productivity measure to be higher in the U.S. than in a LDC. Also, the measures seem contradictory. Each plant appears to be far more productive than the other on one measure, but much worse on the other. 2-7 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 02 - Strategy b. Compute the multifactor productivity figures for labor and capital together. Do the results make more sense? Multifactor – Labor and Capital Equipment Country U.S. Output in Units 90,000 Input in Hours 20,105 + 63,000= 83,105 Productivity (Output/Input) 1.08 units/hour LDC 20,010 15,120 + 5,120= 20,240 0.99 units/hour Yes, labor and equipment can be substituted for each other. Therefore, this multifactor measure is a better indicator of productivity in this instance. c. Calculate raw material productivity figures (units/$ where $1 = FC 10). Explain why these figures might be greater in the subsidiary. Raw Material Productivity Country U.S. Output in Units 90,000 Input in Dollars $19,550 Productivity (Output/Input) 4.60 units/$ LDC 20,010 FC 20,010/$10 = $2,100 9.53 units/$ The raw material productivity measures might be greater in the LDC due to a reduced cost paid for raw materials, which is typical of LDC’s, especially if there are local sources for the raw materials. 19. Various financial data for the past two years follow. Calculate the total productivity measure and the partial measures for labor, capital, and raw materials for this company for both years. What do these measures tell you about this company? Output: Input: Sales Labor Raw materials Energy Capital Other Last Year $201,005 30,010 34,775 4,870 49,700 1,870 This Year $202,015 40,010 44,785 5,890 49,700 3,005 2-8 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 02 - Strategy Total Productivity Year Output in Dollars Input in Dollars Productivity (Output/Input) Last Year $201,005 $30,010 + 34,775 + 4,870 + 49,700 + 1,870 = $121,225 1.66 This Year $202,015 $40,010 + 44,785 + 5,890 + 49,700 +3,005 = $143,390 1.41 Last Year Output in Dollars $201,005 Input in Dollars $30,010 Productivity (Output/Input) 6.70 This Year $202,015 $40,010 5.05 Partial Measure – Labor Year Partial Measure – Raw Materials Year Output in Dollars Last Year $201,005 This Year $202,015 Input in Dollars $34,775 Productivity (Output/Input) $44,785 4.51 Input in Dollars $49,700 Productivity (Output/Input) $49,700 4.06 5.78 Partial Measure – Capital Year Output in Dollars Last Year $201,005 This Year $202,015 4.04 The overall productivity measure is declining, which indicates a possible problem. The partial measures can be used to indicate cause of the declining productivity. In this case, it is a combination of declines in both labor and raw material productivity, which were somewhat offset by an increase in the capital productivity. Further investigation should be undertaken to explain the drops in both labor and raw material productivity. An increase in the cost of both of these measures, without an accompanying increase in the selling price might explain these measures. 2-9 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 02 - Strategy 20. An electronics company makes communications devices for military contracts. The company just completed two contracts. The navy contract was for 2,600 devices and took 25 workers four weeks (40 hours per week) to complete. The army contract was for 5,567 devices that were produced by 37 workers in four weeks. On which contract were the workers more productive? Contract Output in Units Input in Hours Productivity (Output/Input) Navy 2600 25(4)40 = 4000 0.65 Army 5567 37(4)40 = 5920 0.94 The workers were more productive on the Army contract. 21. 22. A retail store had sales of $45,100 in April and $55,200 in May. The store employs eight fulltime workers who work a 40-hour week. In April the store also had seven part-time workers at 13 hours per week, and in May the store had eight part-timers at 17 hours per week (assume four weeks in each month). Using sales dollars as the measure of output, what is the percentage change in productivity from April to May? Month Output in Dollars April $45,100 May $55,200 Input in Hours (8(40)+7(13))*4 = 1644 Productivity (Output/Input) 1824 30.26 Percentage Change 27.43 (30.26-27.43)/27.43 = 10.32% A parcel delivery company delivered 103,700 packages last year, when its average employment was 82 drivers. This year the firm handled 112, 780 deliveries with 93 drivers. What was the percentage change in productivity over the two years? Year Output in Packages Input in Drivers Productivity (Output/Input) Last 103,700 82 1264.63 This 112,780 93 1212.69 Percentage Change (1212.69 -1264.63)/1264.63 = - 4.11% 2-10 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 02 - Strategy 23. A fast-food restaurant serves hamburgers, cheeseburgers, and chicken sandwiches. The restaurant counts a cheeseburger as equivalent to 1.28 hamburgers and chicken sandwiches as 0.79 hamburger. Current employment is eight full-time employees who work a 40-hour week. If the restaurant sold 750 hamburgers, 915 cheeseburgers, and 510 chicken sandwiches in one week, what is its productivity? What would its productivity have been if it had sold the same number of sandwiches (2,175), but the mix was 725 of each type? Part 750 Hamburgers 915 Cheeseburgers (1.28) 510 Chicken Sandwiches (.79) 725 Hamburgers 725 Cheeseburgers (1.28) 725 Chicken Sandwiches (.79) Output in Hamburger Equivalents Input in Hours Productivity (Output/Input) 2324.10 320 7.26 2225.75 320 6.96 2-11 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 3 - Operation Management Operation Management (Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics) Studocu is not sponsored or endorsed by any college or university Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 3 – Design of Products and Services CHAPTER 3 DESIGN OF PRODUCTS AND SERVICES Discussion Questions 1. Describe the generic product development process described in this chapter. How does this process change for technology push products? Products that are developed using the “technology push” would be more narrowly focused in phase 0 and phase 1 of Marketing. The focus would be narrower because you would only look at market segments that could benefit from the application of your technology. The rest of the generic process may be somewhat less complex as well since the technology of the product currently exists in your manufacturing facilities 2. How does the QFD approach help? What are some limitations of this approach? QFD helps to get the voice of the customer into the design process using interfunctional teams. The limitations of QFD relate to the culture of the organization. In the United States, we tend to be vertically oriented and try to promote breakthrough. This can work against interfunctional teamwork, which is needed for QFD success. If a breakthrough culture can be maintained with a continuous improvement mentality through interfunctional teams, this would lead to tremendous improvements in productivity. 3. Discuss the product design philosophy behind industrial design and design for manufacture and assembly. Which one do you think is more important in a customer-focused product development? Industrial design is concerned with designing a product from the end-user’s point of view, such as aesthetics and user-friendliness of the product. Design for manufacturability, on the other hand, makes the product design less complicated and easier to manufacture. Very often it results in fewer parts, smaller size, increased reliability, and lower cost. Both philosophies are equally important for a customer-focused product development. In order to attract customers, the product must be aesthetically pleasing and user-friendly (industrial design). However, to sustain customer interests, it should also have a lower cost and higher reliability (design for manufacturability). 4. Discuss design-based incrementalism, which is frequent product redesign throughout the product’s life. What are the pros and cons of this idea? Pro: enhanced function, higher quality, and lower cost through continuously advancing technology. Con: time and money spent on frequent product and process redesigns, low priority given in servicing the existing and older products. Consumer reaction to frequent changes may be negative. 3-1 Copyright © 2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 3 – Design of Products and Services 5. Do the concepts of complexity and divergence apply to an online sales company such as Dell Computer? Due to the size of Dell and the number of market segments they serve, these concepts certainly apply. Consider as one example the technical support process for an existing customer. Service can vary from very simple like an individual customer needing a particular driver for her new computer to very complex in troubleshooting a network load problem in a server farm for an Internet service provider. In the first example there is a straightforward solution to the problem in emailing the customer a copy of the driver. In the latter, the service process may be quite divergent, with the process being adapted based on the symptoms of the problem and the skill of the customer’s technical workforce. For a pure sales company like Amazon, the complexity and divergence would be much less. 6. What factors must be traded off in the product development process before introducing a new product? The factors that need careful attention for new products are product performance, development speed, product cost, and development program expense. Smith and Reinertsen identify six pairs of trade-offs in their book. These include all possible pairs among the four factors noted above. 7. Coca-Cola is a well-established consumer products company with a strong position in the global market. The sales of their core soda products have remained relatively stable for decades, yet the company has continued to grow and has remained extremely profitable. Discuss Coca-Cola’s history in light of the statement that “generating a steady stream of new products to market is extremely important to competitiveness.” Does Coca-Cola’s success disprove that statement? Is the company an exception to the rule or an example of its application? By growing into a global company, one could argue they have been introducing new products into markets they never served before, even though the products are not new to the company. They have also grown by acquisition of other drink companies and introduction of new drink products outside of their core soda business. As the products are not subject to great innovation or technological advances, Coca-Cola has needed to expand their product lines and global reach to continue to grow. 3-2 Copyright © 2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 3 – Design of Products and Services Objective Questions 1. Which phase of the generic development process involves construction and evaluation of multiple preproduction versions of the product? Testing and refinement 2. A process that emphasizes cross-functional integration and concurrent development of a product and its associated processes is known as _________________________. Concurrent engineering 3. Match the following product types to the appropriate product development description. Technology-push B products Entail unusually large uncertainties about the technology or A market. The development process takes steps to address those : uncertainties. E Platform products B A firm with a new proprietary technology seeks out a market : where that technology can be applied. D Process-intensive products C Uses a repeated prototyping cycle. Results from one cycle are : used to modify priorities in the ensuing cycle. A High-risk products The production process has an impact on the product properties. D Therefore, product design and process design cannot be : separated. C Quick-build products E: Products are designed and built around a preexisting technological subsystem. 3-3 Copyright © 2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 3 – Design of Products and Services 4. Designing products for aesthetics and with the user in mind is generally called what? Industrial design 5. The first step in developing a house of quality is to develop a list of ______________________. customer requirements for the product 6. The purpose of value analysis/value engineering is to _________________________________. simplify products and processes 7. What is it about service processes that makes their design and operation so different from manufacturing processes? Direct customer involvement in the process 8. What are the three general factors that determine the fit of a new or revised service process? Service experience fit, operational fit, and financial impact. 9. Measures of product development success can be organized in what three categories? Time to market, productivity, quality. 3-4 Copyright © 2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 3 – Design of Products and Services 10. Tuff Wheels Kiddy Dozer a. Base case Project Schedule Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Kiddy Dozer Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Development 333 33 33 3 3 Pilot Testing 10 10 0 0 Ramp-up 20 20 0 0 Marketing and Support 38 Production Volume 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 Unit Production Cost 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Production Costs 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sales Volume 15 Unit Price PV Year 1 r = 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sales Revenue Period Cash Flow 15 - - 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 33 63 33 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 333 3 3 8 - - - - 935 917 899 881 864 847 831 814 798 783 767 752 3-5 Copyright © 2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 3 – Design of Products and Services 8 333 Project NPV 850 3 32 60 31 7 9 8 b. The results are shown below for both scenarios. If sales are only 50,000 then the project is still worthwhile since the NPV decrease to $6,759,000. If Tuff Wheels has under estimated the sales and it ends up being 70,000 per year then NPV will increase from $8,503,000 base case to $10,247,000 with the higher sales rate. Sales Revised to 50,000 per Year Project Schedule Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Kiddy Dozer Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Development 333 333 333 Pilot Testing 100 100 Ramp-up 200 200 Marketing and Support Production Volume 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 Unit Production Cost 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Production Costs 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sales Volume Unit Price Sales Revenue 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 212 212 212 212 212 212 212 212 212 212 212 212 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3-6 Copyright © 2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 3 – Design of Products and Services Period Cash Flow - - - 838 838 838 838 838 838 838 838 838 838 838 838 333 333 633 338 PV Year 1 r = 8 - - - 774 759 744 729 715 701 687 674 660 647 635 622 333 327 609 318 Project NPV 675 9 Sales Revised to 70,000 per Year Project Schedule Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Kiddy Dozer Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Development 333 33 33 3 3 Pilot Testing 10 100 0 Ramp-up 20 200 0 Marketing and Support Production Volume 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 Unit Production Cost 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Production Costs 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sales Volume 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 3-7 Copyright © 2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 3 – Design of Products and Services Unit Price 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 297 297 297 297 297 297 297 297 297 297 297 297 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Sales Revenue Period Cash Flow - - 118 118 118 118 118 118 118 118 118 118 118 118 -333 33 63 338 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 3 3 PV Year 1 r = 8 - - 109 107 105 103 101 -333 32 60 994 974 955 936 918 900 882 318 7 6 4 4 4 7 9 Project NPV 1024 7 c. The impact of changing the interest rate is shown below. There is still a positive NPV but it shrinks the interest rate increases. This would be expected since a higher the interest rate reduces the present value of future cash flows. Base Case 8% $8,503,043 9% $8,283,241 10% $8,069,666 11% $7,862,116 3-8 Copyright © 2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 3 – Design of Products and Services 11. Perot Corporation Patay2 Chip. a. In the base case the Patay2 Chip Project has a very good NPV of $10,460,000, see below. Project Schedule Year 1 Year 2 Patay2 Chip 1st half 2nd half 1st half 2nd half Development Cost 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 Pilot Testing Cost 2,500 2,500 Debug Cost 1,500 1,500 Ramp-up Cost 3,000 Advance Marketing Cost 5,000 Ongoing Marketing and Support Year 3 1st half Year 4 2nd half 1st half 2nd half 500 500 500 500 Production Volume 125 125 75 75 Unit Production Cost 655 655 545 545 Production Costs 81,875 81,875 40,875 40,875 Sales Volume 125 125 75 75 Unit Price 820 820 650 650 102,50 102,50 48,750 48,750 0 0 Sales Revenue Period Cash Flow -5,000 -5,000 -9,000 -17,000 20,125 20,125 7,375 7,375 PV Year 1 r = 12 -5,000 -4,762 -8,163 -14,685 16,557 15,768 5,503 5,241 Project NPV 10,460 3-9 Copyright © 2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 3 – Design of Products and Services b. Additional 10 million for higher price is clearly worthwhile as it raises the NPV from $10.46 million to $16.654 million. See results below. Project Schedule Year 1 Year 2 Patay2 Chip 1st half 2nd half 1st half 2nd half Development Cost 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 Pilot Testing Cost 2,500 2,500 Debug Cost 1,500 1,500 Ramp-up Cost 3,000 Advance Marketing Cost 5,000 Ongoing Marketing and Support Year 3 1st half Year 4 2nd half 1st half 2nd half 500 500 500 500 Production Volume 125 125 75 75 Unit Production Cost 655 655 545 545 Production Costs 81,875 81,875 40,875 40,875 Sales Volume 125 125 75 75 Unit Price 870 870 700 700 108,75 108,75 52,500 52,500 0 0 Sales Revenue Period Cash Flow -7,500 -7,500 -19,500 26,375 26,375 11,125 11,125 11,500 PV Year 1 r = 12 -7,500 -7,143 -16,845 21,699 20,666 8,302 10,431 Project NPV 16,654 7,906 3-10 Copyright © 2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 3 – Design of Products and Services c. Reduced sales estimates have a significant impact on the NPV. It reduces the NPV all the way down to $10,000. The success of the Patay2 Chip is very dependent on the sales estimates. It would be wise for Perot to make sure that there is sufficient demand for Patay2 Chips. Project Schedule Year 1 Year 2 Patay2 Chip 1st half 2nd half 1st half 2nd half Development Cost 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 Pilot Testing Cost 2,500 2,500 Debug Cost 1,500 1,500 Ramp-up Cost 3,000 Advance Marketing Cost 5,000 Ongoing Marketing and Support Year 3 1st half Year 4 2nd half 1st half 2nd half 500 500 500 500 Production Volume 100 100 50 50 Unit Production Cost 655 655 545 545 Production Costs 65,500 65,500 27,250 27,250 Sales Volume 100 100 50 50 Unit Price 820 820 650 650 Sales Revenue 82,000 82,000 32,500 32,500 Period Cash Flow -5,000 -5,000 -9,000 -17,000 16,000 16,000 4,750 4,750 PV Year 1 r = 12 -5,000 -4,762 -8,163 -14,685 13,163 12,536 3,545 3,376 Project NPV 10 12. Answers will vary based upon the product selected and the student. Issues that should be considered in the design and manufacture of a product include design process (traditional vs. concurrent engineering), customer needs and expectations, legal considerations (EPA, OSHA, etc.), service life, reliability, appearance, standardization, any industry standards that should be considered (e.g., television set and the 3-11 Copyright © 2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 3 – Design of Products and Services type of signal received from stations), method of shipment, material cost and availability, stage of the product life cycle, design for manufacturability, design for assembly, packaging, environmental, unit cost, pricing, availability of purchased material, availability of capacity, availability of subcontractors, setup cost, manufacturing time, volume, and expected product life. 3-12 Copyright © 2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 3 – Design of Products and Services 13. Answers may vary. Following is just one possible result. Tournament Activities (per text) Grounds maintenance Helpful service attendants Fair handicapping system 3-13 Copyright © 2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 3 – Design of Products and Services CASE: IKEA: Design and Pricing Questions: 1. What are IKEA”s competitive priorities? Probably the key priority is maximizing value to the customer in each product offered through their stores. Low cost is certainly a major priority as well. 2. Describe IKEA’s process for developing a new product. This is described in the case: (1) Pick a price, (2) Choose a manufacturer, (3) Design the product, (5) Ship it. The key here is to recognize that they pick a price point early in the product development process and then work with a manufacturer to ensure they can meet this price point. This is a very innovative approach to product design. 3. What are additional features of the IKEA concept (beyond their design process) that contribute to creating exceptional value for the customer? Customer can easily view the product in a setting similar to theirs (i.e. apartments) in the IKEA store. Also, the product can be easily brought home by the customer eliminating delivery and setup charges. This creates more value in the product by eliminating these costs. 4. What would be important criteria for selecting a site for an IKEA store? Need to be located in a high density area where many people live in smaller apartments where space is a premium. The IKEA products really appeal to young, affluent customers. CASE: Dental Spa 3-14 Copyright © 2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 3 – Design of Products and Services Questions: 1. Which one of the three new service requirements would a dental spa least likely pass: service experience fit, operational fit, or financial impact? Why? The dental spa is least likely to have operational fit because new personnel must be hired and the layout of current operations must be changed in order to offer this new service. Although service experience fit might seem logical, distracting the patient from possible pain would improve the service experience of the core service, dentistry. Often the services are given away. Dental Associates must “buy in” to the new services and see the obvious patient comfort benefits to the dental business and experience. 2. What are some of the main areas of complexity and divergence in this kind of operation relative to the standard dental clinic? Complexity: By providing two services at once, the complexity is automatically increased. For example, if cleaning teeth requires two steps and a hand massage requires one, then together the new service at the dental spa would take three steps. Besides just being a combination of two services normally provided separately, timing or coordination issues could add extra steps to this new process. However some steps, such as billing, would be combined in comparison to two services and it might be simple addition (often these services are free and do not affect billing). Divergence: Any customer service that can possibly inflict pain, such as a visit to a dentist, requires a large degree of judgment on the part of the service provider of how best to deal with a painful situation. For example, some patients need empathy. Almost completely opposite, a visit to a spa can be like going to a psychiatrist as a customer tells their problems as they are getting their manicure. This allows for divergence as a customer service provider must decide how to react to hearing all of the issues in someone’s life. However, being at the dentist would limit this verbal interaction much like a dentist who only asks questions when he has instruments in the patients mouth preventing a real answer. 3-15 Copyright © 2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 SM Chapter 004 project management textbook question bank answer Financial Management (Lingnan University) Studocu is not sponsored or endorsed by any college or university Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management CHAPTER 4 PROJECT MANAGEMENT Discussion Questions 1. What was the most complex project that you have been involved in? Give examples of the following as they pertain to the project: the work breakdown structure, tasks, subtasks, and work package. Were you on the critical path? Did it have a good project manager? Obviously, the answer will vary. Remember that the project could be in a non-profit environment as well. School plays (especially musicals) are a good example, because there are many major tasks that need to be broken down and scheduled in parallel, but all must be completed by the time opening night comes. This would include selecting the play and obtaining the rights, auditions, rehearsals of the actors, rehearsals of the musicians, construction of the sets, setting the lighting, printing tickets and programs, staffing the theater, advertising and fund raising. 2. What are some reasons project scheduling is not done well? Several problems with project scheduling are discussed at the end of the chapter. The uncertainties inherent in the activities comprising the network of any project make it necessary to update the schedule on a regular basis. Maintaining accurate time and cost estimates is often difficult and frustrating. Managing this evolving process requires a discipline that is not always available. 3. Which characteristics must a project have for critical path scheduling to be applicable? What types of projects have been subjected to critical path analysis? Project characteristics necessary for critical path scheduling to be applicable are: a. Defined project beginning and ending b. Well-defined jobs whose completion marks the end of the project. c. The jobs of tasks are independent in that they may be started, stopped, and conducted separately within a given sequence. d. The jobs or tasks are ordered in that they must follow each other in a given sequence. e. An activity once started is allowed to continue without interruption until it is completed. A wide variety of projects have used critical path analysis. Some industries that more commonly use this approach include aerospace, construction, and computer software. 4. What are the underlying assumptions of minimum-cost scheduling? Are they equally realistic? The underlying assumptions of minimum cost scheduling are that it costs money to expedite a project activity and it costs money to sustain or lengthen the completion time of the project. 4-1 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management While both assumptions are generally realistic, it often happens that there are little or no out-of-pocket costs associated with sustaining a project. Personnel are often shifted between projects, and in the short run there may be no incentive to compete a project in “normal time.” 5. “Project control should always focus on the critical path.” Comment. In many project situations, it is not the activities on the critical path which cause problems, but rather noncritical activities, which, for various reasons, become critical. In the context of PERT, it may turn out that the activities on the critical path have small variances associated with them and can be treated as near certain. At the same time, activities off the critical path may have extremely large variances and, in fact, if not closely monitored, may delay the project. Thus, while project control must keep track of critical path activities, it may be more useful to focus on those activities which are not on the critical path but, for one reason or another, have a high degree of uncertainty associated with them. Along these lines, some authors have suggested that the critical path approach should be replaced by a critical activity approach in which simulation is used to estimate which activities are likely to become sources of project delay. These activities, rather than critical path, would become the focus of managerial control. Additionally, the critical path focuses on the time or schedule aspects of the projects. Certain activities could be "critical" because of cost or quality considerations. 6. Why would subcontractors for a government project want their activities on the critical path? Under what conditions would they try to avoid being on the critical path? A subcontractor might want his activities on the critical path in situations where cost incentives are provided for early project completion. Since the critical path ultimately determines project length, it stands to reason that activities on the path would be the ones that would draw additional funds to expedite completion. A subcontractor might want his activities off the critical path because of some error on his part or because he doesn’t want to be bothered by the close monitoring of progress which often goes with critical path activities. 7. Discuss the graphic presentations in Exhibit 4.11. Are there any other graphic outputs you would like to see if you were project manager? The various graphs and charts presented are typical of the graphical techniques for presenting the necessary data. Most are adaptable to computer programming. The major requirements in the graphics package include planned activities related to time, a milestone chart to show major achievements, a breakdown to show how funds were spent plus a plot of actual completion versus planned. 8. Why is it important to use expected value management (EVM) in the overall management of projects? Compare to the use of baseline and current schedules only. Using schedules only captures the time aspect of project management. Costs and revenues are also critical to efficient project management and the overall success of any project. A project may be ahead of schedule but at an unacceptable cost. 4-2 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management 9. Consider the EVM charts in Exhibit 4.12. Are there any other measures you might want to use in the management of a project? What are some controllable variables that may affect the costs being tracked? Students will likely have multiple answers to these questions. One might be quality defects and their costs in rework or scrap. Utilization figures for workers and expensive resources might also be useful. 10. What do you think might be some barriers to the successful, effective use of the project management software packages discussed in the chapter? Students will have varying answers here, but we would expect them to include training and hiring personnel with the right technical aptitude as well as the cost of buying and upgrading such systems. Objective Questions 1. What are the three types of projects based on the amount of change involved? Derivative, breakthrough, platform. 2. What are the four major categories of projects based on the type of change involved? Product change, process change, research & development, and alliance & partnership. 3. Match the following characteristics with their relevant project team organizational structures. B The project is housed within a functional division of the firm. A: Pure project C A project manager leads personnel from different functional areas. B: Functional project A Personnel work on a dedicated project team. C: Matrix project C A team member reports to two bosses. A Team pride, motivation, and commitment are high. B Team members can work on several projects. C Duplication of resources is minimized. 4-3 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management 4. What is the term for a group of project activities that are assigned to a single organizational unit? Work package 5. The following activities are part of a project to be scheduled using CPM: a. Draw the network. 6 13 13 C (7) 6 0 15 15 D (2) 13 13 18 F (3) 15 16 19 19 6 G (7) A (6) 0 26 19 6 6 9 15 B (3) 12 26 19 E (4) 15 15 19 b. What is the critical path? A-C-D-E-G, also shown in the network above as the bold path. c. How many weeks will it take to complete the project? 6+7+2+4+7 = 26 weeks d. How much slack does activity B have? Activity B has 6 weeks of slack – the difference between its early and late start times. 4-4 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management 6. Schedule the following activities using CPM: a. Draw the network path. 1 5 5 B (4) 1 7 7 9 D (2) 5 5 9 F (2) 7 8 11 G (2) 10 10 12 12 0 15 1 H (3) A (1) 12 0 15 1 1 4 7 C (3) 4 12 E (5) 7 7 12 b. What is the critical path? A-B-D-E-H, also shown in the network above as the bold path. c. How many weeks will it take to complete the project? 15 weeks, 1+4+2+5+3 d. Which activities have slack, and how much? C, 3 weeks; F, 1 week; and G, 1 week. 4-5 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management 7. The R&D department is planning to bid on a large project for the development of a new communications system for commercial planes. The accompanying table shows the activities, times, and sequences required: a. Draw the network diagram. 3 5 5 B (2) 0 3 0 E (6) 7 9 3 7 A (3) 9 15 7 C (4) 3 13 13 F (6) 3 7 3 7 7 15 15 G (2) 13 7 D (4) 3 11 13 18 I (3) 15 15 18 10 H (3) 7 12 15 Note that G has both D and F as immediate predecessors. However, D is redundant because F also has D as an immediate predecessor. b. What is the critical path? A-C-F-G-I, and A-D-F-G-I at 18 weeks. c. Suppose you want to shorten the completion time as much as possible, and you have the option of shortening any or all of B, C, D, and G each one week. Which would you shorten? B is not on a critical path and has slack of 4; therefore, do not shorten as it will not change the project completion time. Shorten C, D, and G one week each. C and D are on parallel critical paths, reducing them both will only reduce project completion time by 1 week. 4-6 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management d. What is the new critical path and earliest completion time? A-C-F-G-I; and A-D-F-G-I remain the critical paths. Project completion time is reduced from 18 to 16 weeks. 8. The following represents a project that should be scheduled using CPM: a. Draw the network. TIMES (DAYS) ACTIVITY A B C D E F G H IMMEDIATE PREDECESSORS — — A A B C, D D, E F, G 1 0 0 b 5 3 3 4 11 5 6 5 ET 3 2 2 3 5 4 3.833 3.833 5 7 F (4) 5 1 12 5 4 H (3.83) 9 4 4 7 12 12 15 G (3.83) E (5) 7 11 7 B (2) 4 15 7 D (3) 1 0.4444 0.1111 0.1111 0.1111 1.7778 0.1111 0.6944 0.2500 5 1 1 m 3 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 C (2) 1 A (3) a 1 1 1 2 3 3 1 2 7 10 12 12 4-7 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management b. What is the critical path? B-E-G-H c. What is the expected project completion time? 2.00+5.00+3.833+3.833 = 14.67 d. What is the probability of completing this project within 16 days? Variance of project completion time is found by adding the variances of activities on the critical path. .1111 + 1.7778 + .6944 + .2500 = 2.833 Z (16 14.67) = .79 2.833 P(T<16) = P(Z<.79) = .7852 (From Excel’s NORMSDIST() function) 9. There is an 82 percent chance the project below can be completed in X weeks or less. What is X? Most likely Most pessimistic Expected Time Variance Activity Most optimistic A B C D E 2 3 1 6 4 5 3 3 8 7 11 3 5 10 10 5.5 3 3 8 7 2.25 0 .444 .444 1 First find the value of Z that results in a probability of .82. Using Excel’s NORMSINV(.82) = .915. Then find the critical path (ABD) and the variance on the critical path: 2.25+ 0 + .444 = 2.694. Finally, use equation 5.3 to solve for D. Paths 4-8 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management ABD 16.5 .915 D 16.5 2.694 D = 18 ACE 15.5 10. The following table represents a plan for a project: a. Construct the appropriate network diagram. Job No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 a 3 2 2 1 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 m 5 2 5 4 3 4 6 4 6 4 7 b 10 14 8 10 5 6 12 7 13 5 13 ET 5.50 4.00 5.00 4.50 3.00 4.00 6.50 4.00 6.50 4.00 7.00 2 1.361 4.000 1.000 2.250 0.444 0.444 2.250 1.000 3.361 0.111 4.000 4-9 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management 5.5 9.5 9.5 2 (4 ) 5 (3) 11.5 7.5 12.5 11.5 14.5 18.5 14.5 8 (4) 14.5 0 5.5 5.5 1 (5.5 ) 0 5.5 10.5 10.5 3 (5) 9 (6 .5) 18.5 6 (4) 10.5 10.5 14.5 5.5 10 10 16.5 4 (4.5) 14.5 25 25 16.5 32 11 (7 ) 25 7 (6..5) 14.5 25 18.5 14.5 5.5 10 18.5 32 20.5 10 (4) 21 21 25 b. Indicate the critical path. 1-3-6-8-9-11 c. What is the expected completion time for the project? 5.50+5.00+4.00+4.00+6.50+7.00 = 32 d. You can accomplish any one of the following at an additional cost of $1,500: (1)Reduce job 7 by two days. (2) Reduce job 3 by three days. (3) Reduce job 8 by four days. If you save $1,000 for each day that the earliest completion time is reduced, which action, if any, would you choose? (1) Job 7 is not on the critical path; therefore, reducing its time by two days will not reduce project completion time. (2) If you reduce job 3 by three days, then path 1-2-5-8-9-11 becomes critical and the project length is 30 days. You have saved $2,000 but paid $1,500. (3) Task 8 is on the critical path, so if you reduce job 8 by four days, then the project length becomes 28 days. You have saved $4,000 but paid $1,500. e. What is the possibility that the project will take more than 35 days to complete? First, you need to compute the variance of the C.P.: 1.361 + 1.000 + 0.444 + 1.000 + 3.361 + 4.000 = 11.167. Then use equation 5.3 to find the correct Z and look its value up in Appendix E. Z 35 32 0.90 11.167 P .82 4-10 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management 11. A construction project is broken down into the following 10 activities: a. Draw the network diagram. 3 4 5 2 (1) 0 3 0 9 3 5 9 5 8 14 19 12 6 (3) 7 9 3 8 19 19 9 (7) 9 12 8 4 (5) 3 15 8 ( 5) 14 3 (2) 3 10 5 (5) 8 1 (3) 10 12 25 10 (6) 19 19 25 12 7 (4) 8 8 12 b. Find the critical path. 1-4-7-9-10, length = 25 weeks c. If activities 1 and 10 cannot be shortened, but activities 2 and 9 can be shortened to a minimum of one week each at a cost of $10,000 per week, which activities would you shorten to cut the project by four weeks? The one option would be to cut activity 7 by 3 weeks, and then reduce activity 4 by one week. 4-11 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management Another option would be to reduce activities 4 and 9 by a total of 3 weeks, and then reduce activity 7 by one week. 12. Here is a CPM network with activity times in weeks: a. Determine the critical path. 7 12 14 B (5) 9 0 C (6) 14 7 14 11 A (7) 0 20 20 14 20 G (3) 11 7 7 D (6) 14 11 20 11 E(4) 7 26 26 19 F (8) 11 12 20 A-E-G-C-D b. How many weeks will the project take to complete? 26 weeks c. Suppose F could be shortened by two weeks and B by one week. How would this affect the completion date? No difference in completion date. Neither B nor F is on the critical path. 4-12 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management 13. Here is a network with the activity times shown in days: a. Find the critical path. 6 18 14 23 F (5) B (8) 6 0 14 6 20 14 A (6) 0 25 18 23 D (4) 6 14 6 11 G (3) 18 25 18 C (5) 9 28 28 25 E (7) 14 18 25 A-B-D-E-G b. The following table shows the normal times and the crash times, along with the associated costs for each activity. 4-13 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management If the project is to be shortened by four days, show which activities, in order of reduction would be shortened and the resulting cost. Solution: Activity A B C D E F G Normal Time (NT) 6 8 5 4 7 5 3 Crash Time (CT) 5 7 3 3 6 4 2 Normal Cost (NC) $7,300 5,300 9,000 3,300 2,200 4,100 5,200 Crash Cost (CC) $8,300 6,700 10,600 4,100 3,600 7,300 8,300 NT-CT 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 Cost/day to expedite $1,000 1,400 800 800 1,400 3,200 3,100 First, the lowest cost activities to crash are D at $800 per day. Critical path remains the same. Second, lowest cost activity on the critical path is A. Crash activity A. Third, B and E are next lowest cost activities on the critical paths. Both have a cost of $1,400 per day. Select B then E or reverse the order (E then B). Summary of steps to reduce project by four days: Step Activity to crash Cost to crash Days saved 1 D $800 1 2 A 1,000 1 3 B (or E) 1,400 1 4 E (or B) 1,400 1 Total $4,600 14. The home office billing department of a chain department stores prepares monthly inventory reports for use by the stores’ purchasing agents. Given the following information, use the critical path method to determine: 4-14 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management a. How long the total process will take. 0 10 20 b (10 ) 10 0 50 d ( 30 ) 20 50 80 80 0 a (0 ) 0 100 100 g ( 20 ) 0 80 0 20 20 20 20 c ( 20) 0 40 40 40 40 e (20 ) 100 h (0) 100 100 100 80 f ( 40) 80 100 hours b. Which jobs can be delayed without delaying the early start of any subsequent activity? Activities b and d are not on the critical path. Their start can be delayed without delaying the start of any subsequent activities. Activity b can be delayed by 10 hours and d can be delayed by 30 hours without affecting the project completion date. 15. For the network shown: 4-15 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management a. Determine the critical path and the early completion time in weeks for the project. 18 21 D (3 ) 6 18 18 21 B (12 ) 6 0 18 6 14 A (6 ) 0 17 21 E (3 ) 6 6 25 G (4) 18 21 14 17 21 25 14 C (8) 10 18 F (3) 18 21 A-B-D-G, 6+12+3+4 = 25 weeks b. For the data shown, reduce the project completion time by three weeks. Assume a linear cost per week shortened, and show, step by step, how you arrived at your schedule. 4-16 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management Solution: Activity A B C D E F G Normal Time (NT) 6 12 8 3 3 3 4 Normal Cost (NC) $7,400 12,200 5,800 4,600 3,200 7,000 8,000 Crash Time (CT) 5 7 6 1 2 2 3 Crash Cost (CC) $13,500 18,300 7,000 6,000 6,700 7,500 8,400 NT-CT 1 5 2 2 1 1 1 Cost/week to expedite $6,100 1,220 600 700 3,500 500 400 First, reduce G (lowest cost activity on the critical path) by one week. Second, crash activity D by one week. Critical paths remain the same. Third, crash activity D by one more week at a cost of $700, which is the least expensive. Summary of activities crashed: Step Activity Cost to crash Weeks reduced 1 G $400 1 2 D 700 1 3 D 700 1 Total cost $1,800 16. The following CPM network has estimates of the normal time in weeks listed for the activities: 4-17 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management a. Identify the critical path. 5 15 8 21 F (6) B (3) 8 0 11 15 5 11 A (5) 0 21 15 21 D (4) 5 11 5 G (5) 15 21 11 15 C (6) 5 26 26 18 E (3) 11 18 21 A-C-D-F-G b. What is the length of time to complete the project? 5+6+4+6+5 = 26 weeks c. Which activities have slack, and how much? B, 3 weeks; E, 3 weeks. d. Here is a table of normal and crash times and costs. Which activities would you shorten to cut two weeks from the schedule in a rational fashion? What would be the incremental cost? Is the critical path changed? Solution: Activity Normal Time (NT) Crash Time (CT) Normal Cost (NC) Crash Cost (CC) NT-CT Cost/week to expedite A 5 4 $7,600 $8,700 1 1,100 B 3 2 5,700 8,400 1 2,700 4-18 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management C 6 5 7,800 9,400 1 1,600 D 4 3 2,650 3,800 1 1,150 E 3 2 2,500 4,400 1 1,900 F 6 4 5,800 8,600 2 1,400 G 5 4 3,800 5,500 1 1,700 First, shorten activity A by one week at a cost of $1,100. This is the lowest cost/week activity on the critical path. Second, shorten activity D by one week at a cost of $1,150. This is the next lowest cost/week activity on the critical path. The total cost is $2,250 and the critical path remains unchanged. 17. Bragg’s Bakery is building a new automated bakery in downtown Sandusky. Here are the activities that need to be completed to get the new bakery built and the equipment installed. a. Draw the project diagram. 4-19 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management B ( 3) D (10) A (4) F (2) C (5) E (4 ) b. and c. What is the normal project length? What is the project length if all activities are crashed to their minimum? Solution: Path ABDF ACDF ACEF Normal Length 19 21 15 Crashed Length 12 13 09 d. Bragg’s loses $4,000 in profit per week for every week the bakery is not completed. How many weeks will the project take if we are willing to pay crashing cost as long as it is less than $4,000? We would only crash the project until 14 weeks since the cost of crashing F is $5600 which is greater than the $4000 in additional profit. LENGTH ABDF - 19 18 17 16 15 15 15 14 13 ACDF - 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 ACEF - 15 15 15 15 15 14 13 12 11 D D D D C C A F Crash cost 2000 2000 2000 2000 3800 3800 3900 5600 Cumulative Cost 2000 4000 6000 8000 11800 15600 19500 25100 Activity Crashed 4-20 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management 18. Assume the network and data that follow: a. Construct the network diagram. Activity Normal Time (NT) Crash Time (CT) Normal Cost (NC) Crash Cost (CC) NT-CT Cost/week to expedite A 4 3 $140 $180 1 40 B 5 3 70 100 2 15 C 4 1 90 120 3 10 D 3 2 90 150 1 60 E 5 3 40 50 2 5 F 8 5 100 190 3 30 G 9 8 60 120 1 60 4 9 9 E (5) B (5) 5 0 10 4 10 4 A (4) 0 14 15 15 8 C (4) 4 11 4 7 G (9) 15 15 7 D (3) 4 24 24 15 F (8) 7 7 15 4-21 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management b. Indicate the critical path when normal activity times are used. The critical path is A-D-F-G, with a length of 4+3+8+9 = 24 c. Compute the minimum total direct cost for each project duration based on the cost associated with each activity. Consider durations of 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, and 24 weeks. The normal time project cost is $590 at 24 weeks. Minimum cost crashing to 19 weeks is shown below. LENGTH ABEG - 23 23 22 21 20 19 ACG - 17 17 17 17 16 15 ADFG - 24 23 22 21 20 19 Activity Crashed F E+F E+F A G Crash cost 30 35 35 40 60 Cum. Crash Cost 30 65 100 140 200 Total Direct Cost 620 655 690 730 790 d. If the indirect costs for each project duration are $400 (24 weeks), $350 (23 weeks), $300 (22 weeks), $250 (21 weeks), $200 (20 weeks), and $150 (19 weeks), what is the total project cost for each duration? Indicate the minimum total project cost duration. Computations build off the earlier table and are shown below. The total project cost in normal time is $590 + $400 = $990. LENGTH ABEG - 23 23 22 21 20 19 ACG - 17 17 17 17 16 15 ADFG - 24 23 22 21 20 19 Activity Crashed F E+F E+F A G Crash cost 30 35 35 40 60 Cum. Crash Cost 30 65 100 140 200 Total Direct Cost 620 655 690 730 790 Indirect Cost 350 300 250 200 150 Total Project Cost 970 955 940 930 940 We can achieve minimum cost by reducing the project to 20 weeks. The duration has the total cost of $930. 4-22 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management 19. Your project to obtain charitable donations is now 50 days into a planned 60-day project. The project is divided into 3 activities. The first activity is designed to solicit individual donations. It is scheduled to run the first 44 days of the project and to bring in $26,300. Even though we are 50 days into the project, we still see that we have only 88 percent of this activity complete. The second activity relates to company donations and is scheduled to run for 50 days starting on day 6 and extending through day 56. We estimate that even though we should have (44/50) 88 percent of this activity complete, it is actually only 55 percent complete. This part of the project was scheduled to bring in $151,300 in donations. The final activity is for matching funds. This activity is scheduled to run the last 10 days of the project and has not started. It is scheduled to bring in an additional $52,600. So far $175,600 has actually been brought in on the project. Calculate the schedule variance, schedule performance index, and cost (actually value in this case) performance index. How is the project going? Hint: Note that this problem is different since revenue rather than cost is the relevant measure. Use care in how the measures are interpreted. Solution: Activity 1. Solicit 2. Donations 3. Matching Funds Total Expected Revenue $26,300 $151,300 Planned Duration 44 50 Planned Start Date 0 6 $52,600 10 50 Planned Comp. Date 44 56 Expected % Complete 100% 88% Actual % Complete 88% 55% 60 0% 0% $230,200 Actual Rev. to Date $175,600 BCWS Activity 1 Activity 2 Activity 3 100% of $26,300 88% of $151,300 0 % of 52,600 = = = 26,300 133,144 0 $159,444 BCWP Activity 1 Activity 2 Activity 3 88% of 26,300 55% of 151,300 0% of $52,600 = 23,144 = 83,215 =0 106,359 4-23 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management Scheduled Variance = 106,359 - 159,444 = -53,085 Scheduled Performance Index = 106,359/159,444 = .667 Cost Variance = 106,359 - 175,600 = -69,241 Cost Performance = 106,359/175,000 = .606 Because we are working with revenues instead of costs, we have to invert the evaluation rules listed in the text. Our performance measures here are actually good. Although we are behind schedule on completing tasks 1 and 2, we have brought in more money than expected for the amount of work we have completed. 20. A project to build a new bridge seems to be going very well since the project is well ahead of schedule and costs seem to be running very low. A major milestone has been reached where the first two activities have been totally completed and the third activity is 70 percent complete. The planners were only expecting to be 57 percent through the third activity at this time. The first activity involves prepping the site for the bridge. It was expected that this would cost $1,426,000 and it was done for only $1,306,000. The second activity was the pouring of concrete for the bridge. This was expected to cost $10,506,000 but was actually done for $9,006,000. The third and final activity is the actual construction of the bridge superstructure. This was expected to cost a total of $8,506,000. To date they have spent $5,006,000 on the superstructure. Calculate the schedule variance, schedule performance index, and cost index for the project to date. How is the project going? Solution: Activity 1. Site preparation 2. Pour concrete 3. Construction Total Expected Cost $1,426,000 $10,506,000 $8,506,000 $20,438,000 Expected % Complete 100% 100% 57% Actual % Complete 100% 100% 70% Actual Cost to Date $1,306,000 $9,006,000 $5,006,000 $15,318,000 BCWS Activity 1 Activity 2 Activity 3 100% of $1,426,000 100% of $10,506,000 57 % of $8,506,000 = = = $1,426,000 $10,506,000 $4,848,420 $16,780,420 4-24 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management BCWP Activity 1 Activity 2 Activity 3 100% of $1,426,000 100% of $10,506,000 70 % of $8,506,000 = = = $1,426,000 $10,506,000 $5,954,200 $17,886,200 Scheduled Variance = 17,886,200-16, 780,420 = 1,105,780 Scheduled Performance Index = 17,886,200/16,780,420 = 1.066 Cost Performance = 17,886,200/15,318,000 = 1.168 Ahead of schedule and under budget. 21. What feature in project management information systems can be used to resolve overallocation of project resources? Leveling 22. What was the first major project management information system that is now commonly used for managing very large projects? Primavera Project Planner 23. What type of chart compares the current project schedule with the original baseline schedule so that deviations from the original plan can be easily noticed? Tracking Gantt chart Analytics Exercise: Product Design Project 1, 2. 4-25 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management 0 2 P1 (2) 0 2 2 6 P2 (4) 16 22 S2 (6) 19 2 6 6 11 22 6 25 37 V2 (2) 25 35 21 22 35 37 D1 (1) 11 16 16 21 23 24 21 22 S1 (5) P4 (5) 11 35 V1 (10) P3 (5) 11 32 16 16 23 27 D4 (4) D3 (1) 21 27 23 24 21 23 24 31 I1 (3) 28 31 23 27 31 27 23 35 31 I3 (4) I2 (4) 23 35 I4 (4) 28 D2 (2) 21 30 27 27 31 The project will take 37 weeks to complete. The critical path is P1-P2-P3-P4-S1-D2-I2-I3-I4-V2. 3. Slack for each activity is listed in the following table. Major Subprojects/Activities Project Specifications (P) Market research Overall product specification Hardware Software Supplier specifications (S) Hardware Software Product design (D) Battery Display Camera Outer cover Product integration (I) Hardware User interface Software coding Prototype testing Subcontracting (V) Supplier selection Contract negotiation Activity ID Dependencies P1 P2 P3 P4 -P1 P2 P3 S1 S2 P4 P4 D1 D2 D3 D4 S1 S1 S1 D1, D2, D3 I1 I2 I3 I4 D4 D2 I2 I1, I3 V1 V2 S1, S2 I4, V1 Duration (Weeks) 16 2 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 1 2 1 4 12 3 4 4 4 12 10 2 ES, LS Slack 0, 0 2, 2 6, 6 11, 11 ----- 16, 16 16, 19 -3 21, 23 21, 21 21, 23 23, 24 2 -2 1 27, 28 23, 23 27, 27 31, 31 1 ---- 22, 25 35, 35 3 -- 4-26 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 04 – Project Management 4. Assume that the activity lengths remain the same, but the precedence relationships within subprojects no longer apply as all activities in a subproject will be worked on in parallel. Therefore, the length of each subproject will now be equal to the length of the longest activity in the subproject. The subprojects are outlined in dashed lines in the network drawing above. Subproject P will take 5 weeks to complete; subproject S, 6 weeks; D, 4 weeks; I, 4 weeks; and V, 10 weeks. Since all of these subprojects will completed in series now, the length of the project is the sum of the subproject times: 5+6+4+4+10 = 29 weeks, a decrease of 8 weeks. 5. The revised network diagram is shown below. Adding P5 extends the time of subproject P to 12 weeks while subprojects D and I remain at 4 weeks each. By eliminating subprojects S and V, the project length is now down to 20 weeks – 17 weeks less than the original schedule. 0 2 P1 (2) 10 12 0 12 4 P2 (4) 13 D1 (1) 16 8 12 0 5 0 12 15 16 12 13 0 D4 (4) 12 15 16 5 12 14 12 20 I4 (4) 12 14 16 17 20 16 20 16 16 16 20 20 I3 (4) I2 (4) D2 (2) 12 weeks 6. 16 I1 (3) 16 12 P4 (5) 7 12 19 P5 (12) D3 (1) P3 (5) 7 0 20 16 20 16 4 weeks 4 weeks Having the team focus on a single subproject at a time will allow more collaboration on each subproject as opposed to the team being split across several subprojects. This might result in higher quality of work as the entire project team is focused on a single subproject at a time and you will have more input and a wider variety of experiences working on each subproject than you would otherwise. By combining subprojects S and V with P, Nokia can perhaps take advantage of supplier expertise in designing the new phone. Nokia would better understand the technological capabilities of their suppliers and include them in the phone design from the beginning. One concern might be the feasibility of eliminating the original precedence relationships when changing to the new project structures in parts 4 and 5. Assuming there were good reasons for those relationships originally, eliminating them might cause problems in the project if Nokia does not fully address those reasons in the new project structure. For example, if they select suppliers and negotiate contracts before the product specifications are complete, and they do not include their suppliers in the product specification process, they might end up with a supplier that cannot supply the needed materials nor do so at the proper level of quality. Assuming the technical/managerial precedence issues are properly addressed, the new project structures make sense. In addition to reducing project time, there are other possible benefits to be gained from the increased collaboration the new structures would bring. 4-27 © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) CHAPTER 5 STRATEGIC CAPACITY MANAGEMENT Discussion Questions 1. What capacity problems are encountered when a new drug is introduced to the market? The primary concerns come from uncertain demand for the drug and the high capital investment typically needed for modern drug production. Being a new drug, there are no historical sales data on which to base forecasts of future demand. If forecasts are too high, significant capital resources will be underutilized. If forecasts are too low, there may be insufficient capital resources to meet the actual demand, resulting in lost sales when the price for the new drug is typically highest. 2. List some practical limits to economies of scale; that is, when should a plant stop growing? The obvious answer is that a plant should stop growing when its long-run average cost curve hits the inflection point and starts increasing. Factors leading to this situation include difficulties coordinating and managing a facility of that size, demand variations that can lead to regular periods of low capacity utilization, and capacity imbalance within the facility. 3. What are some capacity balance problems faced by the following organizations or facilities? a. An airline terminal Congested flight arrival/departure scheduling typically leads to problems throughout the system, including waiting areas, distances from boarding gates, ground crew requirements, runways, baggage handling, etc. b. A university computing lab The number of computer workstations, the size of each workstation (room for student papers, etc.), the mix of different computer types (Mac or PC), the number of printers, the capacity of the network access, study space for students waiting. These problems are exacerbated by surges in demand during certain points in the semester (e.g. finals week). c. A clothing manufacturer Many manufacturers now use highly decentralized shops to make clothes. This means that capacity of multiple sites must be accounted for in planning production. 4. At first glance, the concepts of the focused factory and capacity flexibility may seem to contradict each other. Do they really? This is not necessarily true. This will depend on the available technology of the facility and on the type of industry it competes in. An FMS plant may, for example, use flexible processes to enlarge the variety of products produced and delivered in a very short time. Therefore, it can choose to compete on fast delivery of customized products rather than on cost. The PWP concept can capitalize on the overall facility economies of scale while maintaining focus within each individual PWP. 5. Management may choose to build up capacity in anticipation of demand or in response to developing demand. Cite the advantages and disadvantages of both approaches. The strategy of building up capacity ahead of demand is a risk-taking stance. Investment is based on projections. This investment involves costs for new facilities, equipment, human resources, and overhead. If the demand materializes, the investment is worthwhile since the firm may capture a large amount of market share. If it does not materialize, the firm must redirect the invested resources. This strategy is most appropriate in high growth areas. If the demand materializes, but the capacity planning strategy is risk averse, i.e., building capacity only as demand develops, then most likely market share will be lost. The growth in demand will encourage new entrants, resulting in more competition. The risk averse strategy may be most appropriate for small firms who cannot afford to invest in unproven prospects. To prevent potential loss of market share, firms may choose to incrementally increase capacity to match the increase in demand. 6. What is capacity balance? Why is it hard to achieve? What methods are used to deal with capacity imbalances? In a perfectly balanced plant, the output of each stage provides the exact input requirement for the subsequent stage. This continues throughout the entire operation. This condition is difficult to achieve because the best operating levels for each stage generally differ. Variability in product demand and the processes may also lead to imbalance, in the short run. There are various ways of dealing with capacity imbalances. One is to add capacity to those stages that are the bottlenecks. This can be achieved by temporary measures such as overtime, leasing equipment, or subcontracting. Another approach is to use buffer inventories so that interdependence between two departments can be loosened. A third approach involves duplicating the facilities of one department upon which another is dependent. 7. What are some reasons for a plant to maintain a capacity cushion? How about a negative capacity cushion? A plant may choose to maintain a capacity cushion for a number of reasons. If the demand is highly unstable, maintaining cushion capacity will ensure capacity availability at all times. Also, capacity cushions can be useful if high service quality levels are established. Some organizations choose to use capacity cushions as a competitive weapon to create barriers to entry for competitors. Negative capacity cushions may be maintained when demand is expected to decrease rapidly and capacity investment is high enough to discourage short run capacity acquisitions. It may also make sense where capital investment needed to achieve a capacity cushion is extremely expensive, and capacity can be easily increased in the short run by methods such as overtime or subcontracting. 8. Will the use of decision tree analysis guarantee the best decision for a firm? Why or why not? If not, why bother using it? No they cannot, due to the effect of future chance events. First, the probabilities are not known with certainty, but are just estimates. However, even if the probabilities used are accurate, we are still just computing expected values. For any one decision, there is no guarantee it will be the best possible decision. Then why use it? For any one decision you are going with the “best odds” so to speak. For a series of decisions over time, the best long-term results will come from decision tree analysis with accurate probabilities. 9. Consider the example in Exhibit 5.5. Can you think of anything else you might do with that example that would be helpful to the ultimate decision maker? As with the probabilities in the prior question, the rate of return used in NPV analysis is only an estimate. The analyst could repeat the decision tree analysis with multiple rates of return, performing sort of a sensitivity analysis on the decision model with respect to the rate of return. If the same solution results from all of the analyses, the decision maker can feel more confident in choosing the recommend approach. 10. What are some major capacity considerations in a hospital? How do they differ from those of a factory? Some capacity considerations are size and composition of nursing staff (RNs vs. LPNs), balance between operating room and intensive care units, emergency rooms, etc., and, of course, how many beds are to be available. One of the differences in capacity considerations between a hospital and a factory is that a hospital can add capacity rather quickly in the short run, through “simply” adding more staff and more beds. A factory is usually technologically limited, and, therefore, must plan well in advance to add major chunks of capacity. On the other hand, though, the general uncertainty which surrounds the demand for hospital services on any given day is much greater than would be faced by a factory. Additionally, factory management generally has the ability to backlog demand in such a way as to achieve more efficient levels of capacity utilization than does a hospital. Sick and injured patients cannot be put on a shelf and made to wait during periods of peak demand. 11. Refer to Exhibit 5.6. Why is it that the “critical zone” begins at a utilization rate of about 70 percent in a typical service operation? Draw upon your own experiences as either a customer or a server in common service establishments. Uncertainty in the arrival and service rates is the key problem here. The utilization rate of 70 percent is based on the average arrival rate and service rate. As most of us have observed, both can vary widely throughout the day or even from one customer to the next. Sometimes things just “get busy” as more customers than average arrive during a short time window. Also, a “problem customer” or two can greatly extend the time to service them and consume valuable resources. Even though the average utilization rate may be 70 percent, these issues can make the short term utilization rate exceed 100 percent occasionally. Objective Questions 1. A manufacturing shop is designed to operate most efficiently at an output of 550 units per day. In the past month the plant produced 490 units. What was their capacity utilization rate last month? 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = 490 550 = 89.1% 2. A company has a factory that is designed so that it is most efficient (average unit cost is minimized) when producing 15,000 units of output each month. However, it has an absolute maximum output capability of 17,250 units per month, and can produce as little as 7000 units per month without corporate headquarters shifting production to another plant. If the factory produces 10,925 units in October, what is the capacity utilization rate in October for this factory? 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = 10,925 15,000 = 72.83% 3. Hoosier Manufacturing operates a production shop that is designed to have the lowest unit production cost at an output rate of 100 units per hour. In the month of July, the company operated the production line for a total of 175 hours and produced 16,900 units of output. What was its capacity utilization rate for the month? 16,900 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = (175)∗(100) = 96.57% 4. AlwaysRain Irrigation, Inc., would like to determine capacity requirements for the next four years. Currently two production lines are in place for making bronze and plastic sprinklers. Three types of sprinklers are available in both bronze and plastic: 90-degree nozzle sprinklers, 180-degree nozzle sprinklers, and 360-degree nozzle sprinklers. Management has forecast demand for the next four years as follows: Both production lines can produce all the different types of nozzles. The bronze machines needed for the bronze sprinklers require two operators and can produce up to 12,000 sprinklers. The plastic injection molding machine needed for the plastic sprinklers requires four operators and can produce up to 200,000 sprinklers. Three bronze machines and only one injection molding machine are available. What are the capacity requirements for the next four years? (Assume that there is no learning.) Solution: Plastic Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 97 115 136 141 48.5% 57.5% 68.0% 70.5% .485 .575 .680 .705 1.94 2.30 2.72 2.82 Bronze Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Demand for bronze sprinklers 21 24 29 34 Percentage of capacity used 58.3% 66.7% 80.6% 94.4% Machine requirements 1.75 2.00 2.42 2.83 Labor requirements 3.50 4.00 4.83 5.66 Demand for plastic sprinklers Percentage of capacity used Machine requirements Labor requirements There is sufficient capacity to meet expected demand over the 4-year planning horizon. The only concern might be year 4 on the bronze line. Capacity is approaching 100% in that year, and forecast error might lead to an over-capacity situation. It is probably not a large concern at this point in time, but management should pay special attention to that point in time as forecasts are updated in the future. 5. Requirements for plastic remain unchanged. Bronze Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Demand for bronze sprinklers 32 36 41 52 Percentage of capacity used 88.9% 100.0% 113.9% 144.4% Machine requirements 2.67 3 3.42 4.33 Labor requirements 5.33 6 6.83 8.67 It is obvious that not enough capacity is available after year two to meet the increased demand. AlwaysRain will have to consider purchasing additional machines for the bronze operations. 6. Bronze Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Demand for bronze sprinklers 32 36 41 52 Percentage of capacity used 66.67% 75.00% 85.42% 108.33% Machine requirements 2.67 3.00 3.42 4.33 Labor requirements 5.33 6.00 6.83 8.67 No. An additional machine will provide enough capacity cushion until the third year. AlwaysRain must consider additional ways of meeting the fourth year demand. This can include purchasing or leasing an additional machine, or outsourcing some of the demand. 7. Labor requirements-bronze Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 5.33 6.00 6.83 8.67 Labor requirements-plastic 1.94 2.30 2.72 2.82 Total labor requirements 7.27 8.30 9.55 11.49 AlwaysRain will face a problem of not having enough trained personnel for running the equipment after the third year. At that time, they will need to either hire new trained employees or initiate a training program for existing employees from other workstations who can be utilized at the bronze or plastic molding machines. 8. High growth P = .40 $12.0 million $10.8 million Build Small Factory EV = $10.8 – 6.0 million EV = $4.8 million Low growth P = .60 $10.0 million Do Nothing, EV = $0 Build Large Factory EV = $11.6 – 9.0 million EV = $2.6 million High growth P = .40 $14.0 million $11.6 million Low growth P = .60 $10.0 million For the small facility, NPV = .40 ($12 Million) + .60 ($10 Million) - $6 Million = $4.8 Million Do nothing, NPV = $0 For the large facility NPV = .40($14 Million) + .60($10 Million) - $9 Million = $2.6 Million Therefore, build the small facility. 9. Do Nothing EV = $0 Sell to dept. chain @ $4.0 million P = .70 1 EV = $4.3 – 1.0 million = $3.3 million P = .30 Sell to insurance co. @ $5.0 million Rezoned P = .60 Buy/Develop Property EV = $2.94 – 2.0 million EV = $940,000 3 EV = $2.94 million High price P = .60 1,500 apts. @ $3,000 = $4.5 million 2 EV = $3.9 - $1.0 million = $2.9 million Low price P = .40 1,500 apts. @ $2,000 = $3.0 million Not Rezoned P = .40 Build 600 homes @ $4,000 = $2.4 million The “Do Nothing” option is included here for completeness. Rezoned shopping center (includes $1.0 rezoning costs): Point 1: Expected value = .70($4 Million) + .30($5 Million) - $1.0 million = $3.3 Million Rezoned apartments: Point 2: Expected value = .60($4.5 Million) + .40($3 Million) - $1.0 million = $2.9 Million Since a shopping center has more value, prune the apartment choice. In other words, if rezoned, build a shopping center with a revenue of $4.3 Million - $1 Million = $3.3 Million. (The purchase cost could be included here if desired, but would need to be included in the calculations for all development options. This solution shows it at the leftmost part of the tree.) If not rezoned the revenue will be $2.4 million from building homes: Point 3: Expected value of developing the land is .6*($3.3 million) + .4*($2.4 million) = $2.94 million. Expected profit of buying and developing the land is $2.94 million - $2 million purchase cost = $940,000. Since this is a positive expected value, prune the option of doing nothing. 10. A local restaurant is concerned about their ability to provide quality service as they continue to grow and attract more customers. They have collected data from Friday and Saturday nights, their busiest time of the week. During these time periods about 75 customers arrive per hour for service. Given the number of tables and chairs, and the typical time it takes to serve a customer, they figure they can serve on average about 100 customers per hour. During these nights, are they in the zone of service, the critical zone, or the zone of non-service? 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = 75 100 = 75% According to the text, this restaurant is in the critical zone on these nights. 11. The restaurant in the prior problem anticipates that in one year, their demand will double as long as they can provide good service to their customers. How much will they have to increase their service capacity to stay out of the critical zone? If demand doubles, they will be receiving about 150 customers per hour on average. Find the service rate necessary to result in a utilization rate of 70%. 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = 150 = 70% ⟹ 𝜇 = 214.3 𝜇 Therefore, the restaurant will have to increase capacity to at least 215 customers per hour to stay out of the critical zone. That will be quite an expansion. Case: Shouldice Hospital - A Cut Above 1. Mon. - Fri. Operations with 90 beds (30 patients per day) Beds Required Monday Monday Tuesday Wednesday 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Tuesday Wednesday Check-in Thursday On Friday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday 30 Saturday Sunday 30 30 30 Total 60 90 90 90 60 30 30 450 Utilization 66.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 66.7% 33.3% 33.3% 71.4% Saturday Sunday 2. Mon. - Sat. Operations with 90 beds (30 patients per day) Beds Required Monday Monday Tuesday Wednesday 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Tuesday Wednesday Check-in Thursday On Friday Thursday Friday 30 Saturday Sunday 30 30 30 Total 60 90 90 90 90 60 60 540 Utilization 66.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 66.7% 66.7% 85.7% 3. Mon. - Fri. Operations with 135 beds (minimum) Beds Required Monday Monday Tuesday Wednesday 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 Tuesday Wednesday Check-in Thursday On Friday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday 45 Saturday Sunday 45 45 45 Total 90 135 135 135 90 45 45 675 Utilization 66.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 66.7% 33.3% 33.3% 71.4% Can the capacity of the rest of Shouldice keep up? One operating room can handle about 1 patient every hour. Since there are five operating rooms, each must be able to handle 45/5 or 9 patients per day. This means they must be operated 9 hours a day. In order to finish operating early enough for all patients to recover by the evening, Shouldice would probably have to add operating room capacity although it might be easy to just start earlier in the day. With 45 patients each day the total number of operations each week is 225. The 12 surgeons would need to do between 18 and 19 each week or between 3 and 4 a day. This should be feasible and even if it were not Shouldice could hire some additional surgeons. These guys would be making over $450,000/year (3 ops/day x 5 days/week x 50 weeks/yr x $600 = $450,000)! 4. Using the financial data given in the fourth discussion question it is easy to justify the expansion to 135 beds. The following is the analysis as presented in the spreadsheet. Based on average costs and full capacity utilization, the hospital would pay back its investment in about 86 weeks, or 1.72 years. Mon Beds Required Mon Tues Wed 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 135 100.0% 90 66.7% 45 33.3% Tues Wed Check-in day Thurs Thurs Fri Sat Sun Fri Sat Total Beds 135 Sun 45 45 Total Utilization 90 66.7% 135 135 100.0% 100.0% Operating Rooms Operations 5 Oper/Room Surgeons 45 9 45 45 33.3% 675 71.4% 12 Oper/Surg 3.75 Cost of expansion Beds Cost/Bed Total 45 $100,000 $4,500,000 Incremental Revenue Rev/Oper $1,300 Surgeon Incr Rev $600 $700 Oper/Week Rev/Week Payback 75 $52,500 85.7 Additional Weeks lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Jacobs 16e SM Chap010 Operations Management (York University) Studocu is not sponsored or endorsed by any college or university Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation CHAPTER 10 WAITING LINE ANALYSIS AND SIMULATION Discussion Questions 1. Distinguish between a channel and a phase. A channel is the initial service point of a queuing system. A phase refers to the number of stages that the service points provide. It is possible to have single to multiple service channels and single to multiple service phases. 2. In what way might the first-come, first-served rule be unfair to the customer waiting for service in a bank or hospital? In a bank, FCFS may be perceived to be unfair by customers who have large accounts, but who must wait while the less "important” customers obtain service. In a hospital, especially in an emergency room, FCFS is probably the exception rather than the rule. FCFS would be unfair when a patient with a minor problem is treated before another experiencing severe pain. 3. Define, in a practical sense, what is meant by an exponential service time. An exponential service time means that most of the time, the service requirements are of short time duration, but there are occasional long ones. Exponential distribution also means that the probability that a service will be completed in the next instant of time is not dependent on the time at which it entered the system. We can see that a barber, for example, does not fit an exponential distribution in either case. The barber has an average time for cutting hair, and a person who has been sitting in the chair getting a haircut for the past 15 minutes has a higher probability of being completed in the next minute than a person who just walked in and sat down. 4. Would you expect the exponential distribution to be a good approximation of service times for a. Buying an airline ticket at the airport? Yes. Although certain customers will require special routings and payment methods, most ticketing is straightforward and entails a short service time. b. Riding a merry-go-round at a carnival? 10-1 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation No. The Merry-go-round has a fixed cycle time and hence constant services rate. c. Checking out of a hotel? No. Probably a better approximation would be a normal distribution since fast and slow checkouts are likely to be equally balanced. d. Completing a midterm exam in your OM class? No. From our experience, students require the entire class period (and then some) to finish the typical mid-term. Thus, the service rate is close to constant. 5. Would you expect the Poisson distribution to be a good approximation of a. Runners crossing the finish line in the Boston Marathon? Yes. The arrival pattern typically shows a few runners arriving “early” and the majority arriving in a bunch and the remainder spread out along the tail of the distribution. b. Arrival times of the student in your OM class? No. Arrivals are not random since there is a schedule to be met. c. Arrival times of the bus to your stop at school? No. Again, arrivals are not random since the bus follows a set schedule. 6. What it the major cost trade-off that must be made in managing waiting line situations? The classic trade-off is between the cost of waiting for service versus the cost of providing additional service capacity, e.g., the cost of idle WIP versus the cost of adding more workers and machines to process the inventory. 7. Which assumptions are necessary to employ the formulas given for Model 1? Poisson arrival rates, exponential service rates, which imply a purely random process, but with a known mean (and hence known variance). Also assumed is that the process has reached a point of stochastic equilibrium. In other words, steady state conditions prevail. Infinite calling population and unlimited queue length. 8. Why is simulation often called a technique of last resort? Simulation is called a technique of last resort because simulation models are time consuming to build (flow charting, coding, etc.) and do not “guarantee” an optimal solution or indeed any solution. Therefore, it makes sense to investigate other problem-solving methods such 10-2 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation as linear programming or waiting line theory before embarking on simulation. There are some easy to use “visual” simulation programs now available, and they are worth checking into. 9. Must you use a computer to get good information from a simulation? Explain. A computer is a must for any but the most simple simulation problems. Because simulation is a sampling process, it stands to reason that a large number of observations is desirable, and the computer is the only practical way of providing them. Of course, computerization is no guarantee of “good” information. Simulating an invalid model on the computer will only provide a larger volume of questionable data. 10. What methods are used to increment time in a simulation model? How do they work? Time incrementing methods include fixed time increments and variable time increments. With fixed time increments, uniform clock times are specified (minutes, hours, days, etc.) and the simulation proceeds by fixed intervals from one time period to the next. At each point in clock time, the system is scanned to determine if any events have occurred and time is advanced; if none have, time is still advanced by one unit. With variable time increments, the clock time is advanced by the amount required to initiate the next event. 11. What are the pros and cons of starting a simulation with the system empty? With the system in equilibrium? The pros of starting a simulation with the system empty are that this enables evaluation of the transient period in terms of time to reach steady-state and the activities which are peculiar to the transient period. One con is that it takes a longer period of time to perform the simulation. A second is that the model will be biased by the set of initial values selected, since the time to achieve steadystate and the activities which take place during the transient period will be affected by the initial values. Steps must be taken to remove these initial values if steady-state results are needed. The advantages of starting the system in equilibrium are that the run time may be greatly reduced, and that the aforementioned bias may be eliminated. The disadvantage of starting the simulation in equilibrium is, in essence, that it assumes that the analyst has some idea of the range of output he is looking for. This, in a sense, constitutes “beating” the model and may lead to incorrect conclusions from the simulation run. 10-3 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation 12. Distinguish between known mathematical distributions and empirical distributions. What information is needed to simulate using a known mathematical distribution? A “known mathematical distribution” is one that can be generated mathematically and is amenable to the laws of statistical probability. Examples of such distributions are the normal, binomial, Poisson, Gamma, and hypergeometric. An empirical distribution is one that is obtained from observing the probability of occurrence of phenomena relating to a specific situation. While it may be possible to define the moment generating function for such distributions, their applicability to other situations is likely to be small. The information required to simulate using a known distribution, of course, depends on the known distribution selected. Generally speaking, however, at a minimum, the analyst must be able to estimate the mean and standard deviation of the population to be sampled since they are parameters of distributions. Alternatively, the analyst can use a discrete probability table to represent the empirical distribution. 10-4 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation Objective Questions 1. The exponential distribution is often used to model what in a queuing system? The time between customer arrivals and/or service times. 2. If the average time between customer arrivals is 8 minutes, what is the hourly arrival rate? 7.5 customers per hour 3. How much time on average would a server need to spend on a customer to achieve a service rate of 20 customers per hour? Three minutes 4. What is the term used for the situation where a potential customer arrives at a service operation and upon seeing a long line decides to leave? Balking 5. What is the most commonly used priority rule for setting queue discipline, likely because it is seen as most fair? First-come, first-served (FCFS) 6. Use model 1. λ= μ= 4/hour 6/hour λ 4 1−ρ=1− =1− =.3333 μ 6 a. or 33.33% 2 Lq = b. 2 λ 4 = μ (μ−λ ) 6(6−4 ) W q= =1.33, Lq 1 .33 = λ 4 = 1/3 hour or 20 minutes 10-5 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation 2 2 λ 4 Lq = = μ (μ−λ ) 6(6−4 ) = 1.33 students c. d. At least one other student waiting in line is the same as at least two in the system. This probability is 1-(P0+P1). n ( )( ) λ λ Pn = 1− μ μ 0 ( )( ) P0 = 1− 4 4 6 6 = .3333 1 ( )( ) P1= 1− 4 4 6 6 = .2222 Probability of at least one in line is 1-(.3333 + .2222) = .4444 7. Use model 2. λ= μ= 60/50 per minute 60/45 per minute minutes. Lq = (60 /50)2 λ2 = = 2 μ( μ−λ ) 2(60 /45)(60 /45−60/50) 4.05 cars Ls =Lq + λ/ μ = 4.05 + (60/50)/(60/45) = 4.95 cars 10-6 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation W q= W s= Lq λ Ls λ = 4 .05 =3 . 375 minutes (60/50) = 4 . 95 (60/50) = 4.125 minutes 8. Use Model 1. λ= μ= 100 per hour Ls = 120 per hour λ 100 = μ−λ 120−100 a. = 5 customers W s= Ls λ = 5 100 = .05 hours or 3 minutes μ= b. Now, Ls = 180 per hour λ 100 = μ−λ 180−100 = 1.25 customers W s= Ls λ = 1 .25 100 = .0125 hours or .75 minutes or 45 seconds λ= c. Using model 3, μ= 100 per hour 120 per hour λ 100 ρ= = =. 8333 μ 120 S =2 , and Lq , from spreadsheet, = .1756 λ 100 Ls =Lq + =. 1756+ μ 120 = 1.01 customers 10-7 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation W s= Ls 1 .01 = λ 100 = .0101 hours or .605 minutes or 36.3 seconds 9. Use model 2. λ= μ= 10 per hour 12 per hour 2 Lq = 2 λ 10 = 2 μ( μ−λ ) 2(12 )(12−10) a. = 2.083 people Ls =Lq + λ/ μ = 2.083 + 10/12 = 2.917 people b. W q= Lq 2 . 083 = =.2083 λ 10 c. hours. W s= Ls 2 . 917 = λ 10 d. = .2917 hours 2 Lq = λ= e. It will cause it to increase, at 12 per hour, 10. Use model 1 λ= μ= 3 per minute Ls = a. 2 λ 12 = →∞ 2 μ( μ−λ ) 2(12 )(12−12) 4 per minute λ 3 = μ−λ 4−3 = 3 customers 10-8 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation W s= Ls 3 = λ 3 b. = 1 minute λ 3 ρ= = μ 4 c. = .75 or 75% d. Probability of 3 or more is equal to 1 – probability of 0, 1, 2 ( )( ) 3 3 P0 = 1− 4 4 ( )( ) 0 3 3 P1= 1− 4 4 ( )( ) 1 = .2500, 3 3 P2 = 1− 4 4 = .1875, 1406 Total of P0 + P1 + P2 = (.2500 + .1875 + .1406) = .5781 Therefore, the probability of three or more is 1 - .5781 = .4219 e. If a automatic vendor is installed, use model 2. (a. revisited) 2 2 λ 3 Lq = = 2 μ( μ−λ ) 2( 4 )(4−3 ) =1.125 customers Ls =Lq + λ/ μ = 1.125 + ¾ =1.875 customers (b. revisited) W q= Lq 1 .125 = =. 375 minutes λ 3 W s= Ls 1 .875 = =.625 minutes λ 3 10-9 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) 2 =. lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation By converting to constant service time, the number in line is reduce from 3 to 1.875 people (a reduction of 1.125, and time in system is reduced from 1 minute to .625 minutes (a reduction of .375 minutes or 22.5 seconds). 11. Use model 4. N = 4, population of 4 engineers, S = 1, one technical specialist, T = 1, average time to help engineer, U = 7, time between requests for help X= T 1 = T +U 1+7 = .125, look up value of F in Exhibit 10.10 a. F = .945, therefore, L = N(1-F) = 4(1-.945) = .22 engineers waiting b. Wq= L( T +U ) .22( 1+ 7) = =¿ .466 hours or 28 minutes N−L 4−.22 c. From Exhibit 10.10 at X=.125, and S=1, D = .362. In other words, 36.2% of the time an engineer will have to wait for the specialist. λ= 12. Use model 1. Ls = 30 per hour λ 20 = μ−λ 30−20 a. = 2 people in the system W s= b. μ= 20 per hour Ls 2 = λ 20 = .10 hours or 6 minutes c. Probability of 3 or more is equal to 1 – probability of 0, 1, 2 10-10 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation n ( )( ) λ λ Pn = 1− μ μ ( )( ) 0 20 20 P0 = 1− 30 30 = .3333 ( )( ) 1 20 20 P1= 1− 30 30 = .2222 ( )( ) 20 20 P2 = 1− 30 30 2 = .1481 Total of P0 + P1 + P2 = (.3333 + .2222 + .1481) = .7036 Therefore, the probability of three or more is 1 - .7036 = .2964 λ 20 ρ= = μ 30 d. = .67 or 67% e. Use model 3. λ 20 ρ= = μ 30 =.6667 From Exhibit 10.9, Lq = .0093 Ls =Lq + λ/ μ = .0093 + 20/30 = .676 W s= Ls .676 = λ 20 = .0338 hours or 2.03 minutes 13. Use model 4. N = 4, population of 4 pieces of equipment, 10-11 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation S = 1, one repairperson, T = .0833, average time for repair, U = .5, time between requests for repair (hours) X= T . 0833 = T +U . 0833+.5 = .1428, look up value of F in Exhibit 10.10 a. F = .928, therefore, L = N(1-F) = 4(1-.928) = .288 machines waiting b. J=NF(1-X) = 4(.928)(1-.1428) = 3.18 machines operating c. H = FNX =.928(4).1428 = .53 machines being serviced d. Ls =L + H = .288 + .53 = .818 machines in the system Cost of downtime is .818 times $20 per hour = $16.36 per hour Cost of one serviceperson = $ 6.00 per hour Total cost per hour = $22.36 With 2 repairpersons, S =2, X= T . 0833 = T +U . 0833+.5 = .1428, look up value of F in Exhibit 10.10 F = .995, therefore, L = N(1-F) = 4(1-.995) = .020 machines waiting H = FNX =.995(4).1428 = .568 machines being serviced Ls = L + H = .020 + .568 = .588 Cost of downtime is .588 times $20 per hour = $11.76 per hour 10-12 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation Cost of two serviceperson = $12.00 per hour Total cost per hour = $23.76 No, added cost of $1.42 per hour would be added for second repairperson 14. Use model 1. λ= μ= 2 per hour 3 per hour 2 2 λ 2 Lq = = μ (μ−λ ) 3(3−2 ) a. = 1.333 customers waiting W q= Lq 1 .333 = λ 2 b. = .667 hours or 40 minutes Ls = Ls 2 λ 2 = =2 , W s = = μ−λ 3−2 λ 2 c. = 1 hour λ 2 ρ= = μ 3 d. = .67 or 67% of the time 10-13 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation 15. Use model 1. ρ=.55 λ=1.5/hour 1.5 .55= μ μ=2.727 λ 2.727 .85=¿ ¿ ¿ ¿ λ=2.318/ hour ¿¿ 16. Use model 1. λ= μ= 6 per hour Ls = 10 per hour λ 6 = μ−λ 10−6 a. = 1.5 people W s= Ls 1 .5 = λ 6 = .25 hours or 15 minutes λ 6 ρ= = μ 10 b. c. = .60 or 60% Probability of more than 2 people is equal to 1 – probability of 0, 1, or 2 n ( )( ) λ λ Pn = 1− μ μ ( )( ) 6 6 P0 = 1− 10 10 0 = .4000 10-14 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation ( )( ) 1 6 6 P1= 1− 10 10 = .2400 ( )( ) 6 6 P2 = 1− 10 10 2 = .1440 Total of P0 + P1 + P2 = (.4000 + .2400 + .1440) = .7840 Therefore, the probability of three or more is 1 - .7840 = .2160 d. Use model 3. λ 6 ρ= = μ 10 Lq = .60, from Exhibit 10.9, = .0593 Ls =Lq + λ/ μ=.0593+6/10=. 6593 W s=L s / λ = .6593/6 = .1099 hours or 6.6 minutes 17. Use model 1. λ= μ= 25 per hour 30 per hour λ 25 ρ= = μ 30 a. = .833 or 83.3% Ls = b. λ 25 = μ−λ 30−25 = 5.00 document in the system 10-15 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation W s= Ls λ = 5 . 00 25 c. = .20 hours or 12 minutes d. Probability of 4 or more is equal to 1 – probability of 0, 1, 2, 3 n ( )( ) λ λ Pn = 1− μ μ ( )( ) 0 25 25 P0 = 1− 30 30 = .1667 ( P1= 1− )( ) 25 25 30 30 1 = .1389 ( )( ) 2 25 25 P2 = 1− 30 30 = .1157 ( 3 )( ) 25 25 P3 = 1− 30 30 = .0965 Total of P0 + P1 + P2 + P3 = (.1667 + .1389 + .1157 + .0965) = .5178 Therefore, the probability of three or more is 1 - .5178 = .4822 or 48.22% Lq = λ2 302 = →∞ μ (μ−λ ) 30(30−30) e. 18. Use model 1. λ= μ= 4 per hour 6 per hour 10-16 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation λ 4 ρ= = μ 6 = .667 or 66.7% a. λ 4 = μ−λ 6−2 Ls = b. = 2.00 students in the system W s= Ls λ = 2 . 00 4 c. = .50 hours or 30 minutes d. Probability of 4 or more is equal to 1 – probability of 0, 1, 2, or 3 n ( )( ) λ λ Pn = 1− μ μ 0 ( )( ) 4 4 P0 = 1− 6 6 = .3333 ( )( ) P1= 1− 4 4 6 6 1 = .2222 ( )( ) 2 4 4 P2 = 1− 6 6 = .1481 ( )( ) 4 4 P3 = 1− 6 6 3 = .0988 Total of P0 + P1 + P2 + P3 = (.3333 + .2222 + .1481 + .0988) = .8024 Therefore, the probability of four or more is 1 - .8024 = .1976 or 19.76% Lq = λ2 62 = →∞ μ (μ−λ ) 6(6−6 ) e. 10-17 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation 19. Use model 1. λ= μ= 10 per hour 12 per hour 2 2 λ 10 Lq = = μ (μ−λ ) 12(12−10 ) a. = 4.17 people Ls = λ 10 = μ−λ 12−10 W s= Ls λ = 5 10 = 5, b. = .5 hours or 30 minutes λ 10 ρ= = μ 12 c. d. = .833 or 83.3% Probability of 3 or more is equal to 1 – probability of 0, 1, 2 n ( )( ) λ λ Pn = 1− μ μ ( )( ) 0 10 10 P0 = 1− 12 12 = .1667 ( )( ) P1= 1− 10 10 12 12 1 = .1389 ( )( ) 10 10 P2 = 1− 12 12 2 = .1157 Total of P0 + P1 + P2 + P3 = (.1667 + .1389 + .1157) = .4213 Therefore, the probability of three or more is 1 - .4213 = .5787 or 57.87% 10-18 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation 20. Use model 1. [Students may want to use model 4 because of the limited number of cars in such an attraction, but there is insufficient information in the problem to solve it under model 4. Kudos to students who note this.] λ= 2 per hour μ= With one repair person: Ls = 2 λ 2 = →∞ μ−λ 2−2 μ= With two repair people: Ls = 3 2 λ = =2 μ−λ 3−2 cars μ= With three repair people: Ls = 4 2 λ = =1 μ−λ 4−2 car Service rate per hour ns Cost of waiting per hour1 Cost of service per hour2 Total cost per hour 2 $ $ 20 $ 2 3 2 80 40 120 3 4 1 40 60 100 Number of repair personnel () 1 Note: 1 = cost of waiting is number in system times downtime cost of $40 per hour. 2 = cost of service is number of repair personnel times wage rate ($20 per hour). We should use three repair persons. 10-19 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation 21. Use model 2. λ= μ= 750 per hour 900 per hour W s=L s /λ = 2.92/750 = .003889 hours or .2333 minutes or 14 seconds a. 2 2 Lq = λ 750 = 2 μ( μ−λ ) 2(900 )(900−750) b. = 2.083 cars Ls =Lq + λ/ μ = 2.083 + 750/900 = 2.92 cars 22. Use waiting line approximation because the service times do not follow an exponential distribution. [Note: Student answers may vary slightly due to rounding differences.] X̄ a =3 X̄ s=15 , Sa = 3, C a= , Ss = 7, S = 6 Sa 3 = =1 X̄ a 3 C s= Ss 7 = =. 4667 X̄ s 15 , λ= , 1 1 = =. 3333 X̄ a 3 μ= 1 1 = =. 06667 X̄ s 15 , ρ= λ .3333 = =. 8332 Sμ 6(. 06667) , a. On average how many customers would be waiting in line? ρ√2( S +1 ) C a +C s . 8332√2( 6+1) 12 +. 46672 X = X =1. 8443 Lq = 1−ρ 2 1−. 8332 2 2 2 b. On average how long would a customer spend in the bank? Ls =Lq +S p =1. 848+(6 )(. 8332 )=6 . 8435 W s= Ls 6 . 8468 = =20 .5325 λ .3333 c. If a customer arrived, saw the line and decided not to get in line that customer has ________________________________. Balked 10-20 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation d. A customer who enters the line but decides to leave the line before getting service is said to have ________________________________. Reneged 23. Use waiting line approximation because the service times do not follow an exponential distribution. X̄ a =4 X̄ s=7 , Sa = 4, C a= , Ss = 3, S = 2 Sa 4 = =1 X̄ a 4 C s= Ss X̄ s 3 = =. 4286 7 , λ= , 1 1 = =. 2500 X̄ a 4 μ= 1 1 = =. 1429 X̄ s 7 , ρ= λ .2500 = =. 875 Sμ 2 (. 1429 ) , [Note: Student answers may vary slightly due to rounding differences.] 10-21 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation a. On average, how long will each line be at each of the cashier windows? ρ√2( S +1 ) C a +C s . 8750√2( 2+1) 12 +. 42862 Lq = X = X =3 .5015 1−ρ 2 1−. 8750 2 2 2 b. On average how long will a customer spend in the bank (assume they enter, go directly to one line and leave as soon as service is complete). Ls =Lq +S p =3 .4138+(2 )(.8750 )=5 . 2509 W s= Ls 5 . 1638 = =21. 0036 λ .2500 You decide to consolidate all the cashiers so they can handle all types of customers without increasing the service times. c. What will happen to the amount of time each cashier spends idle? (increase, decrease, stay the same, depends on _____ ) Stay the same d. What will happen to the average amount of time a customer spends in the bank? (increase, decrease, stay the same, depends on _____ ) Decrease 24. Use model 1. Avg number in system (Ls) = 4 Avg time in system (Ws) = 1.176 1. 176= 4= 4 λ λ=3. 4 3.4 μ=4 .25 ( μ−3 . 4 ) 10-22 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation 25. Customer number Time between arrivals (minutes) Probability RN assignment 1 .08 00-07 2 .35 08-42 3 .34 43-76 4 .17 77-93 5 .06 94-99 Service Time (minutes) Probability RN assignment 1.0 .12 00-11 1.5 .21 12-32 2.0 .36 33-68 2.5 .19 69-87 3.0 .07 88-94 3.5 .05 95-99 RN Interarrival time Arrival time Service begins RN Service time Service ends Waiting time Idle time 1 08 2 2 2.0 74 2.5 4.5 0.0 2.0 2 24 2 4 4.5 34 2.0 6.5 0.5 0.0 3 45 3 7 7.0 86 2.5 9.5 0.0 0.5 4 31 2 9 9.5 32 1.5 11.0 0.5 0.0 5 45 3 12 12.0 21 1.5 13.5 0.0 1.0 6 10 2 14 14.0 67 2.0 16.0 0.0 0.5 Average waiting time = 1.0/6 = 1/6 minute, and average teller idle time between customers = 4.0/6 = 4/6 minute or 40 seconds. Average teller idle time percent = 4.0/16 = .25 or 25%. 10-23 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation 26. Machine breakdown number RN Interarrival time (hours) Breakdown time (hours) RN Service time (hours) Repairman 1 Repairman 2 begin end begin 1 30 1.0 1.0 81 3.0 1.0 4.0 2 02 0.5 1.5 91 4.0 3 51 1.0 2.5 08 0.5 4.0 4.5 2.0 4 28 0.5 3.0 44 1.0 4.5 5.5 2.5 5 86 3.0 6.0 84 3.0 6.0 9.0 3.0 3.0 1.5 Average down time is 14.5/5 = 2.9 hours 10-24 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) end Down time (hours) 5.5 4.0 lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation Case: Community Hospital Evening Operations Room 1. Calculate the average customer arrival rate and service rate per hour. The customer arrival rate lambda = 0.0212 patients per hour. This is calculated 62/(8 x 365) = 0.0212. The service rate mu = 0.7427 patients per hour. This calculated 60 min/hour divided by 80.79 minute/patient = 0.7427 patients per hour. 2. Calculate the probability of zero patients in the system (P0), probability of one patient (P1), and the probability of two or more patients simultaneously arriving during the night shift. P(0) = (1 – lambda/mu) = (1 - .0212/.7427) = 0.9714 the probability of no patients in the system is over 97 percent. P(1) = (1 – lambda/mu)(lambda/mu)1 = (1 - .0212/.7427)(.0212/.7427) = 0.0278 the probability of exactly 1 patient in the system is 2.78 percent. The probability that 2 or more patients are in the system is 1 – (P(1) + P(0)) = 1 – (.0278 + 0.9714) = 0.0008. The probability of two or more patients occurring simultaneously on the night shift is less than 0.1% (less than one chance in 1,000). 3. Using a criterion that if the probability is greater than 1 percent, a backup OR team should be employed, make a recommendation to hospital administration. A second OR is not needed at this hospital. 10-25 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation ANALYTICS EXERCISE: Processing Customer Orders – Analyzing a Taco Bell Restaurant 1. Draw a diagram of the process using the format in Exhibit 9.5. Customer arrives and enters order queue Greet customer Customer places order Customer enters pickup window queue Confirm order and price Customer departs Service Champ collects payment Service Champ serves food Food Champ prepares order Service Champ prepares drinks 2. Consider a base case where a customer arrives every 40 seconds and the Customer Service Champion can handle 120 customers per hour. There are two Food Champions each capable of handling 100 orders per hour. How long should it take to be served by the restaurant (from the time a customer enters the kiosk queue until her food is delivered)? Use queuing models to estimate this. = 90, order = 120, prep = 100. For the Customer Service Champion, the average service time is .0083 hours (40 seconds) and the average time in line is .0250 hours (from queuing formulas) for a total of .0333 hrs. (120 seconds). This is calculated using Model 1. For preparing the food for the two Food Champions, the average service time is .01111 hours (40 seconds). Using model 3, and with lambda/mu = .9, Lq from Exhibit 10.9 is 0.2285 customers. The time a customer spends in the system for food to be prepared is .01254 hours or 45.1 seconds. The total time is 120 + 45.1 = 165.1 seconds or 2.75 minutes. 10-26 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation 3. On average, how busy are the Service Champion and the two Food Champions? The Service Champion is busy = 90/120 = 75% of the time and the Food Champions are busy = 90/200 = 45% of the time. 4. On average, how many cars do you expect to have in the drive-thru line? (Include those waiting to place order and waiting for food.) Lq due to the order taking = λ2/µ(µ - λ) = 8100/3600 = 2.25 customers Lq due to the food preparation = .2285 customers Average total customers waiting in line = 2.4785 customers Ls due to the order taking = 3 customers Ls due to the food preparation = 1.1285 customers Average number of customers in the system = 4.1285 5. If the restaurant runs a sale and the customer arrival rate increases by 20%, how would this change the total time expected to serve a customer? How would this change the average number of cars in the drive-thru line? The current customer arrival rate is 90 per hour, this would go up to 90(1.2) = 108 per hour. Ls due to order taking = (λ/µ – λ) = 108/(120-108) = 9.0 cars 10-27 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation Ws = Ls/λ = 9.0/108 = .08333 hours = 5.0 minutes Ls due to order preparation = Lq + λ/µ = .445 + 108/100 = 1.525 cars (note λ/µ = 108/100 = 1.08, Lq = .445 from the spreadsheet) Ws = Ls/λ = 1.525/108 = .01412 hours = .8472 minutes Average total time in the system = 5.0 + .8742 = 5.8472 minutes Average total number of cars in the drive thru = 9.0 + 1.525 = 10.525 cars 6. Currently, relatively few customers (less than ½ percent) order the Crunchwrap Supreme. What would happen if we ran the sale and demand jumped on the Crunchwrap Supreme and 30% of our orders were for this item? Take a quantitative approach to answering this question. Assume that the two processes remain independent. Just to make this interesting, let’s assume that the customer arrival rate went to 108 customers per hour. Assume the order taking rate stays the same at 120/hour. For the order preparation, assume that 70% of the orders still take (60*60)/100 = 36 seconds on average to prepare, but 30% of them now take 72 seconds. The average time to make an order would be .7(36) + .3(72) = 46.8 seconds 10-28 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation So they could prepare (60*60)/46.8 = 76.92 orders per hour (each Food Champ). Ls due to order taking = λ/(µ – λ) = 108/(120-108) = 9.0 cars Ws = Ls/λ = 9.0/108 = .08333 hours = 5.0 minutes this is the same as before. Ls due to order preparation = Lq + λ/µ = 1.3449 + 108/76.92 = 2.749 cars (note λ/µ = 108/76.92 = 1.4, Lq = 1.3449 from exhibit 10.9.) Ws = Ls/λ = 2.749/108 = .02545 hours = 1.527 minutes Average total number of cars in the drive thru = 11.749 cars Average total time in the system = 6.527 minutes Not much of an impact. 7. For the type of analysis done in this case, what are the key assumptions? What would be the impact on our analysis if these assumptions were not true? A big assumption is that there is no interference between the two processes. This would occur if one process was causing a delay in the other process for some reason. It does not appear that this would be true in this process. We are also assuming the Food Champs are working independent, not as a team. Other major assumptions are the distribution associated with arrival and service rates, and that these rates are valid during the peak noon period. 8. Could this type of analysis be used for other service type businesses? Give examples to support your answer. Yes, many examples can be given. 10-29 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com) lOMoARcPSD|12655597 Chapter 10 - Waiting Line Analysis and Simulation 10-30 Downloaded by Dea Yangke3 (deayangke3@gmail.com)