Choosing a Portfolio of Risky Assets By: Jassim P. Isik Markowitz efficient portfolios • A diversification in the manner suggested previously leads to the construction of portfolios with the highest expected return at a given level of risk. Theory assumptions: 1. It assumes that only two parameters affect an investor’s decision: the expected return and the risk. 2. It assumes that an investor is risk averse. 3. It assumes that an investor seeks to achieve the highest expected return at a give level of risk. Calculating the Portfolio Risk using Historical Data • The variance of a portfolio’s return which we shall simply refer to as the portfolio variance is calculated from historical data, generally monthly. • Variance of two-asset portfolio formula: πππ πΉπ· = πΎππ πππ πΉπ + πππ πππ πΉπ + πππ ππ πππ πΉπ πππ πΉπ πππ(πΉπ , πΉπ ) Variance of two-asset portfolio • var(π π ) = portfolio variance • ππ = percentage of the portfolio′s funds invested in asset i • π€π = percentage of the portfolio′s funds invested in asset j • π£ππ(π π ) = variance of asset i • π£ππ π π = variance of asset j • π π‘π π π = standard deviation of asset π • π π‘π π π½ = standard deviation of asset j • πππ π π π π = correlation between the return for assets i and j The extension to three assets formula: • var Rp = wi2 var R i + wj2 var R j + wk2 var R k + 2wi wj std R i std R j cor R i R J + 2wi wk std R i std R k cor R i , R k + 2wj wk std R j std(R k )cor R j , R k • Where π€π = πππππππ‘πππ ππ π‘βπ ππππ‘πππππ ππ’πππ πππ£ππ π‘ππ ππ ππ π ππ‘ π π π‘π π π = π π‘ππππππ πππ£πππ‘πππ ππ ππ π ππ‘ π πππ(π π , π π ) = ππππππππ‘πππ πππ‘π€πππ π‘βπ πππ‘π’ππ πππ ππ π ππ‘π π πππ π πππ π π , π π = ππππππππ‘πππ πππ‘π€πππ π‘βπ πππ‘π’ππ πππ ππ π ππ‘π π πππ π Constructing the Markowitz Efficient Portfolios • An investor who is constructing a portfolio will calculate the portfolio risk (as measured by the portfolio variance) and expected return. • The procedure for determining the maximum expected return for a given level of portfolio risk can be found by using a management science technique called quadratic programming. Constructing the Markowitz Efficient Portfolios • • • • Any portfolio that can be created is called feasible portfolio. The collection of all feasible portfolios is called the feasible set of portfolios. Markowitz efficient portfolio is also said to be a mean-variance efficient portfolio. The collection of all efficient portfolios is called the Markowitz efficient set of portfolios. • The Markowitz efficient set of portfolios is sometimes called the Markowitz efficient frontier because graphically all the Markowitz efficient portfolios lie on the boundary of the set of feasible portfolios with the maximum return for a give level of risk. Choosing a Portfolio in the Markowitz Efficient Set After constructing the Markowitz efficient set of portfolios, the next step is to determine the optimal portfolio. • The best portfolio to hold of all those on the Markowitz efficient frontier is called the optimal portfolio. • The optimal portfolio should depend on the investor’s preference or utility as to the trade-off between risk and expected return. • All possible portfolios that can be created from the available assets. Any portfolio that can be created is called feasible portfolio. • The collection of all feasible portfolios is called the feasible set of portfolios. • Markowitz efficient portfolio is also said to be a mean-variance efficient portfolio. • The collection of all efficient portfolios is called the Markowitz efficient set of portfolios. • The Markowitz efficient set of portfolios is sometimes called the Markowitz efficient frontier because graphically all the Markowitz efficient portfolios lie on the boundary of the set of feasible portfolios with the maximum return for a give level of risk. Thank you ο