Sustainability Science II
Resilience Assessment: case of
Word Count: 1999
Group C2:
Axel Havskog
Jens-Alexander Iversen
Lina Gedeikyte
Linn Embro
Simon Jacobsson
Autumn 2022
1. Sydvatten AB system description
Figure 1: Sydvatten system graph
1.1. System boundaries
Resilience of what? The freshwater lakes
Resilience for what? Freshwater eutrophication
Resilience for whom? Sydvatten and its consumers
Spatial boundaries
Sydvatten is a Swedish water distributor operating within 17 municipalities in Skåne and is
co-owned by all 17 municipalities. Approximately 1 million people in Skåne depend on
Sydvatten for their water. Sydvatten primarily sources their water from lakes Bolmen and
Vombsjön, whilst also relying on Ringsjön as a reserve-lake for emergencies. The water from
Bolmen and Vombsjön is transferred to the waterworks of Ringsjöverket and Vombverket
(see fig 1.). However, Bolmen is located in the region of Småland and is connected to the
waterworks through an 80 km long tunnel, Bolmentunneln. Furthermore, Sydvatten is
planning to expand operations to Sveadal and Skurup municipalities in Skåne (Sydvatten,
2021).
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Temporal Boundaries & Sustainability Goals
Sydvatten was established in 1966 as a response to water scarcity in Skåne (see section 2.2).
Sydvatten’s strategic planning stretches 25-30 years in advance to be able to handle future
challenges such as freshwater eutrophication (Prepas & Charette, 2003). However, many of
Sydvatten's sustainability aspirations are time-bound goals with the main aim being to
achieve carbon neutrality by 2030. To achieve this, Sydvatten focuses on using renewable
energy and reducing GHG emissions (Sydvatten, 2020). Another essential goal is to decrease
the chemical usage in their water purification, which could be done by investing in R&D to
increase the effectiveness of chemicals (Sydvatten, 2021).
Administrative boundaries
Since water is a crucial resource for economic development and social progression (Zhang et
al, 2022), its distribution to society is regulated by legislations and regulations. Laws exist
along Sydvatten's whole value chain, including limitations of water extraction, distribution,
and testing of water quality and nutrients (Regler Om Dricksvatten, 2022). Moreover, a new
security Act (Säkerhetsskyddslag, 2018) has been adopted to increase safety and resilience of
these operations (Sydvatten, 2021). Consequently, there are administrative constraints on how
Sydvatten manages and executes its operations within certain boundaries.
Key sustainability challenges and drivers
The primary sustainability challenge relevant to Sydvatten is eutrophication of freshwater
lakes, since this can compromise the quality and resilience of the freshwater lakes that
Sydvatten depends on (Freshwater Eutrophication, 2017). Eutrophication occurs when there
is an excess of nutrient input in a lake, mainly caused by fertilizer runoff from agriculture
(Carpenter et al., 1999) which is further exacerbated by global warming (Causes of Climate
Change, n.d.). When the levels of nutrient inputs into the lake exceeds the absorptive capacity
of the rooted plants, a regime shift can occur where lakes turn from clear-water to an
algae-dominated water configuration, as illustrated in figure 2 below (Biggs et al, 115).
Eutrophication affects Sydvatten because it implies inferior water-quality and leads to costly
purification processes (Carpenter et al., 1999).
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Figure 2: Eutrophication basin of attraction model
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1.2. A conceptual model of the business case as a social-ecological
system (SES)
Figure 3: ES bundle flower diagram
The ES bundle diagram effectively represents the extent of ecosystem services (ES’)
Sydvatten depends on. Freshwater, a provisioning ES, is an integral part of Sydvatten's
operations. Sydvatten approximately produces 78 million cubic meters of water annually, and
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2,500 liters every second (Work Processes, 2021). Another essential provisioning ES that
enables the company to operate is raw materials used for infrastructure, purification, and
maintenance.
Furthermore, there are supporting and regulating ES’ essential for the provisioning of
freshwater and Sydvattens operations. Catchment areas and biodiversity maintenance is
crucial to reduce fertilizer runoff and nutrient accumulation in lakes, enhancing water quality.
(Eutrophication, n.d.). Additionally, Sydvatten relies on the hydrological cycle and climate
regulation as these are crucial supporting ES’ for the maintenance of lakes.
It is assumed that Sydvatten relies heavily on some cultural ES’s that their lakes
provide. Research of their lakes benefit Sydvatten as they are able to use knowledge
accumulated for research and development to enhance the resilience of the lakes. Sydvatten’s
infrastructure also impacts certain cultural ES’s the lakes and surrounding environments
provide, such as recreational activities. In addition, Sydvattens’ operations impact
provisioning and supporting/regulating services, such as the freshwater quality and
biodiversity due to excavation works in the short-term such as the Bolmentunneln
construction (EIS, 2020).
The lakes are affected by other external key actor groups operating across different
scales. On a regional scale, agriculture in the near-vicinities of the lakes can negatively affect
the system through fertilizer use that might runoff into the lakes. Locally within the
municipalities that Sydvatten operates in, the inhabitants' activities may impact the lakes by
disrupting biodiversity. The actions of these external key actor groups may compromise the
resilience of the lakes, however with proper management and cooperation, they also have the
potential to enhance resilience. (Work Processes, 2021).
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1.3 Timeline
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Figure 4: Sydvatten timeline
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2. Resilience Assessment
2.1 Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)
Figure 5: Sydvatten CLD
This CLD reveals interactions and feedback loops relating to Sydvatten and the lakes the
company withdraws water from. Eutrophication is caused by various key drivers, mainly
farms that cause fertilizer run-off into the lakes. This leads to an increase in algal blooms,
blocking sunlight and increasing the water temperature as the algae absorbs and blocks
sunlight from reaching the rooted plants of the lakes, promoting more blooms whilst
decreasing biodiversity. The loss in biodiversity allows nutrients that have been trapped in
sediments on the lake floor to become loose, which further exacerbates the growth of algae.
This represents a reinforcing feedback loop as the thresholds of concern are reached, trapping
an undesirable state of the system (Schlüter et al., 2015, 115).
In continuation, eutrophication accelerates a decrease in freshwater quality and
availability, forcing Sydvatten to increase its already expensive chemical usage.
Consequently, a decrease in profits results in less money available to be invested in R&D.
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The resultant lack of novel knowledge and development may prevent the possibility of
combatting the extensive eutrophication of the lakes, which reinforces the eutrophication
process (Sydvatten, 2021).
It is vital that Sydvatten manages the regulation of ecosystem services related to
nutrient retention in their lake catchments to enhance the resilience of the lakes. This must be
done soon to prevent their lakes from reaching thresholds and tipping points that would result
in undesirable regime shifts that would be difficult or impossible to reverse.
2.2. The Adaptive Cycle
Figure 6: Sydvatten adaptive cycle
The adaptive cycle is a useful concept to include in this assessment. As seen in figure 6,
during the middle of the 1900’s, municipalities in Skåne faced population growth challenges
and freshwater availability was scarce, leading to a "collapse" in Skåne’s water system
(SKÅNES VATTEN, n.d.). Consequently, the Swedish government led an extensive
investigation in Skåne’s water systems and concluded that Skåne’s new water distribution
should mainly be extracted from lake Bolmen. This initiative led to a reorganization of the
water systems through the creation of Sydvatten AB in 1966 (SKÅNES VATTEN, n.d.).
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After the creation of Sydvatten, the corporation entered into a growth phase during
1975-2012. The Bolmentunnel was constructed in 1975 and put into use in 1987.
Furthermore, 11 new municipalities joined Sydvatten, leading to a spatial expansion and an
extensive increase of people relying on the corporation for their water (Sydvatten, 2015).
Recently, this rapid expansion has been replaced by a stable and cautious development. The
growth phase has shifted into a conservation phase, with increased focus on sustainability,
and efficiency, through collaborations with universities such as Lund’s University (Work
Processes, 2021).
2.3 Managing Resilience Principles
Managing slow variables and feedbacks:
The resilience of desired SES configurations that Sydvattens lakes produce are at risk of
eroding as there is missing feedbacks from the system to the key factors driving the changes
in the SES, such as fertilizer runoff from farmers, which is depicted in the CLD.
Management is needed beyond the boundaries of Sydvattens lakes at the catchment
scale in order to reduce fertilizer runoff into the lakes. The local agricultural practices directly
impact the lakes. However, since the farms are not in close proximity to the lakes, the farmers
often use alternative water sources for their operations, hence are not affected by the
consequences of agriculture on the lakes. This lack of feedback requires that incentive-based
feedbacks are created to establish a connection from the eutrophication of the lakes to the
farmers. One such method would be introducing compensation or reward-schemes for
sustainable agricultural operations, such as enhancing nutrient retention in the landscape.
Such methods include: enhancing vegetation of hills, stubble on fields, as well as maintaining
wetlands and riparian areas (Biggs et al, 126)
Overall, these compensation schemes would widen the systems’ boundaries by
internalizing key drivers of eutrophication of Sydvatten’s lakes, such as local farming, and
building and strengthening feedbacks between the lake systems and farmers. Sydvatten could
cooperate with the Swedish government to implement these incentive programmes in order to
limit financial burden.
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2.4 Concluding Assessment
In conclusion, the eutrophication of freshwater lakes is a threat for Sydvatten. The CLDs
have shown that there are reinforcing feedbacks of eutrophication and the adaptive cycle
suggests that the next phase is the collapse phase. Thus Sydvatten has to focus on adapting
and transforming as a company in order to enhance the resilience of the lakes in which they
rely on.
Adaptation and transformation will be appropriate trajectories for Sydvatten since the
company needs to adapt aspects of their business plan and implement strategic planning to
transform the eutrophication development trajectory. This could be done by adapting
Sydvatten's
strategic planning to
include more
extensive scenario-planning and
risk-calculation to improve foresight capabilities (Natale et al., 2022).
Moreover, Sydvatten must transform features of their operation to include external
actors to combat the forces driving eutrophication of their lakes such as incentive schemes for
farmers. To achieve this, Sydvatten must transform their mindset to a more holistic view
where factors beyond the scope of their internal operations are managed.
Whilst persistence has its benefits, we believe that it is not as suitable for Sydvatten
since tipping points and regime shifts of eutrophication may occur if deliberate action is not
taken soon. This would lead to difficulties in recovering/reversing the undesirable regime
shift, which they would try to counteract through extensive research, time and resources,
posing a greater burden on Sydvatten (Biggs et al., 2015, 115).
3. Discussion
One key insight that has been attained by working on this resilience assessment is the
importance of strategies or laws for regulating the key drivers and feedbacks of
eutrophication. Since there is a lack of feedback of Sydvatten’s lakes to key drivers,
implementing incentives for farmers to reduce fertilizer runoff is crucial to establish these
feedback links.
Another pivotal understanding is the importance of implementing principles to enhance
resilience and that many of these resilience principles overlap. For instance, managing slow
variables and feedbacks through cooperating with governmental agencies would foster
resilience through multiple manners. Such cooperation encourages learning by integrating
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knowledge on multiple levels, and through broadening participation and interactions between
scales. Overall these factors promote polycentric governance and are all crucial principles for
building resilience for Sydvatten.
A strength of this assessment is that the system and challenge of eutrophication has been
viewed and analyzed as a whole rather than as individual components, which fosters complex
adaptive systems thinking. This helped us identify obscured drivers, interactions, feedbacks,
and dynamics more easily, therefore achieving a more holistic understanding of the system.
Had we analyzed the system as individual components, it would have been challenging to
comprehend the interconnectedness of the system dynamics as a whole and to find
sustainable solutions.
One aspect that would further advance this assessment is assessing how Sydvatten
implements the resilience principles which we did not extensively research. This includes
how they as a company maintain diversity and redundancy of their lakes and manage
connectivity. It would also be useful to evaluate how the culture and organization of the
company fosters complex adaptive systems thinking.
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