Gomez, Niña Alexa B.
3BAM5A
Operations Management
Activity: Forecasting and Demand Planning Exercise
Data Collection:
TECH HAVEN GADGETS SALES YEAR 2022
MONTH
LAPTOPS SMARTPHONES TABLETS
EXTERNAL FACTORS
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
JANUARY
10
5
3
New Year promotions led to a
slight increase in sales
FEBRUARY
8
4
2
MARCH
15
7
5
APRIL
7
3
2
MAY
18
8
6
Back-to-school promotions
and academic year start
JUNE
10
5
4
JULY
12
6
3
AUGUST
20
10
8
SEPTEMBER
5
2
1
OCTOBER
25
12
10
NOVEMBER
30
15
12
DECEMBER
35
20
15
Christmas season promotions
led to peak sales
Analysis:
MONTH
JANUARY
FEBRUARY
MARCH
APRIL
MAY
JUNE
JULY
AUGUST
SEPTEMBER
OCTOBER
NOVEMBER
DECEMBER
TOTAL SALES
18
14
27
12
32
19
21
38
8
47
57
70
3-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE
19.67
17.67
23.67
21
24
26
22.33
31
37.33
58
Forecasting:
Demand Forecast for Holiday Season December 2023
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
64
янв.22
янв.23
Demand Forecast for Holiday Season December 2023
December 2023 Forecast = Previous Year December Sales x Expected Growth Rate
Assuming a growth rate of 15%:
December 2023 Forecast = 70 x 1.15 = 80.5
Inventory Planning:





Forecasted Demand (December 2023): 80 units
Safety Stock: 10% of forecasted demand (8 units)
Order Quantity: Based on EOQ and storage capacity (e.g., 30 units)
Lead Time: 4 weeks
Reorder Point: Forecasted demand + Safety Stock (88 units)
Risk Management:
1. Prevention
 Diversify suppliers to reduce dependency on a single source.
 Regularly assess supplier reliability and financial stability.
2.


3.

Mitigation
Maintain safety stock to buffer against short-term disruptions.
Establish strategic partnerships with key suppliers.
Response:
Activate contingency contracts with backup suppliers.

Expedite shipping or air freight options for critical inventory.
4. Recovery:
 Assess the root cause of the disruption and implement measures to prevent a recurrence.
 Reevaluate the supply chain strategy for long-term resilience.
Communication:
Demand Forecast
Based on our analysis, we forecast a demand of approximately 80 units for December 2023.
Inventory Plan




Safety Stock: 8 units
Order Quantity: Based on EOQ and storage capacity (e.g., 30 units)
Lead Time: 4 weeks
Reorder Point: (88 units)
Risk Management Strategies
1.
2.
3.
4.
Prevention
Mitigation
Response
Recovery