The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health
Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly
reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby
East Meria, where consumption of the plant beneficia is very high, people visit the
doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a
substantial amount of beneficia can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most
frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of
nutritional supplements derived from beneficia. We predict this will dramatically reduce
absenteeism in our schools and workplaces.”
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in
order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be
sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the
recommendation.
Merely based on unfounded assumption and dubious evidence, the memo draws the
conclusion that daily use of nutritional supplements derived from beneficia will reduce
absenteeism. To support the conclusion, the author points out the evidence that colds
are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work and people in
East Meria which is a high plant beneficia consumption area have low frequency to
visit doctor for cold. At the first sight, this argument seems to somewhat convincing.
However, it ignores some substantial concerns that should be addressed on the
arguments. From logical perspective, there are three logical flaws. We need more
information about the health system, people’s living habits, and reasons about
absenteeism to evaluate the recommendation.
First of all, the author’s recommendation depends on the assumption that no factor
other than people are not likely to get cold caused they have low frequency to visit
doctors for cold. However, common sense inform me that this assumption is a poor
one. Other factors, like high cost for health bill might just as likely be the cause of low
frequency of doctor visiting. To be specific, if people who live in East Meria have
relatively lower income or they don’t have health insurance, it is costly or not affordable
for they to visit doctor. Since people can recover from small illness like
Cold without any doctor note. It is not necessary to visit a doctor for cold. In this case,
people who lived in East Meria will not likely to visit doctor for cold to save money.
However, if health care is relative cheaper in West Meria, people are more likely to visit
doctor if they get cold. We need the more information about the health system in both
place to evaluate the recommendation.
Secondly, the author fails to establish a causal relationship between fact that people
who lived in high beneficia consumption area have lower doctor visit rate and claim
that beneficia consumption can prevent colds. However, there are other factors can
prevent cold so beneficia consumption is not the only thing to determine the chance of
get colds. Living habits can also determine whether people are likely to get cold or not.
For example, if people who live in East Meria have habits of wearing face mask and
washing hands before eating. The virus that can cause colds can not enter their body
so they are not likely to get cold. We need more information about peoples’ habits to
determine the effect of beneficia on preventing colds.
Finally, the author claims that decreasing the probability of get colds leads to a lower
absenteeism rate because author assume that colds are the reason most frequently
given for absences from school and work. However, authors assumption might not be
true. When people don’t what to go to school or work, they might lie and say that they
get colds because it is one of the most common small illness. For the people who lie
and doesn’t what to work, preventing colds doesn’t affect anything. They will keep
using this reason in the future.
All in all, the author’s memo is unpersuasive as it stands. In order to decide whether
the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result, we need more information
about the health system, people’s living habits, and true reasons about absenteeism in
both area.