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OPM 3000 - Managing Service Systems-2

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OPM 3000: Fall 2023
Managing Service Systems
Professor Yuan-Mao Kao
Chapter 16 of the Textbook
Managing Service Systems
1
The Framework of the Course Chapters
Forecasting
Demand: Customers
Lean Operations
Accuracy measures
Fluctuation
Trend
Seasonality
Waste reduction, TPS Management
Process Flow Metrics
Flow rate, flow time, and inventory
Capacity Analysis & Improvement
Find the bottleneck resources to improve the process capacity
Non-repetitive
Variability:
Demand/Supply
Products
Services
Project
Management
Inventory &
Supply Chain
Service System
Management
Project duration
Critical activities
EOQ
Newsvendor
Reorder point
Order-up-to level
Supply chain
strategies
Waiting time
Waiting customers
Managing systems
CPM & PERT
Managing Service Systems
Quality Management
Statistical Process
Control
Process capability
Defective probability
Control outputs
Quality Improvement
2
What Is a Waiting Line?
Managing Service Systems
3
The Impact of Waiting
• Which component of the customer utility would be impacted if customers need
to wait for a long while?
Performance
Consumption Utility
Fit
Utility
Price
Location
Inconvenience
Timing
• Why are customers still willing to purchase if they can anticipate a long waiting
during the holiday sales activity (e.g., the Black Friday)?
Managing Service Systems
4
Waiting Line Management
• Why do waiting lines (queues) form?
• What factors cause long wait for customers?
• How can we estimate wait?
• How can we reduce wait?
Managing Service Systems
5
Case: Pizzas-4-U
• The business plan for Pizzas-4-U is to accept pizza orders for pickup over the
phone and to compete with superior, fresh, made-to-order deep-dish pizza while
providing excellent service.
• The advertising campaign will feature a promise: “If your pizza is not ready in 20
minutes, that pizza plus your next order is free!”
• An extensive production analysis has revealed that each pizza will require an
average of 15 minutes oven time and 2 minutes preparation time.
• An extensive market analysis has revealed that demand will average 20 pizzas
per hour, and P-4-U has ordered 4 ovens that can each hold one pizza.
• P-4-U is looking for an investor – do you want to invest?
Managing Service Systems
6
Recap: Process Analysis
• We can draw a process flow diagram for Pizzas-4-U:
Demand rate:
20/hour
Preparing
Baking
Worker
Oven
Resource
Processing
Time (min)
Capacity
(pizzas/ hour)
Number of
Resource
Worker
2
1
Oven
15
4
Capacity of the Resource
Pool (pizzas/ hour)
• Process capacity:
• Flow rate:
• Based on the analysis, do you think Pizzas-4-U can serve their customers well?
Managing Service Systems
7
Causes of Waiting: Demand vs. Capacity
• We know the demand rate is 20 pizzas/hour, and the capacity is as below:
Resource
Processing
Time (min)
Capacity
(pizzas/hour)
Number of
Resource
Capacity of the Resource
Pool (pizzas/hour)
Worker
2
30/hour
1
30/hour
Oven
15
4/hour
4
16/hour
• Let’s consider a simple scenario:
• The order arrives exactly in each 3 minutes (and there are 20 orders in an hour)
• Each order has just one pizza requested
• The processing times of Pizzas-4-U are constant
Order
1
2
3
4
5
6
Managing Service Systems
Arrive At
3
6
9
12
15
18
Finish Preparing At
5
8
11
14
17
20
Finish Baking At
20 (1st Oven)
23 (2nd Oven)
26 (3rd Oven)
29 (4th Oven)
35 (1st Oven)
38 (2nd Oven)
Flow Time
17
17
17
17
20
20
8
Causes of Waiting: Demand vs. Capacity (cont’d)
• If we consider a few more customers:
Order
Arrive At
Finish Preparing At
Finish Baking At
Flow Time
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
5
8
11
14
17
20
23
26
29
32
20 (1st Oven)
23 (2nd Oven)
26 (3rd Oven)
29 (4th Oven)
35 (1st Oven)
38 (2nd Oven)
41 (3rd Oven)
44 (4th Oven)
50 (1st Oven)
53 (2nd Oven)
17
17
17
17
20
20
20
20
23
23
Flow Time –
Processing Time
0
0
0
0
3
3
3
3
6
6
• Because of the insufficient capacity, the waiting time increases when more and
more customers arrive!
• Also, more and more customers are in the waiting line (queue)!
Managing Service Systems
9
Causes of Waiting: Demand vs. Capacity (cont’d)
• To improve the performance, Pizzas-4-U decides to add one more oven. Now, it
has 5 ovens in total:
Resource
Processing
Time (min)
Capacity
(pizzas/hour)
Number of
Resource
Capacity of the Resource
Pool (pizzas/hour)
Worker
2
30/hour
1
30/hour
Oven
15
4/hour
5
20/hour
• Process capacity: 20 pizzas/hour
• Flow rate = min demand rate, process capacity = 20, 20 = 20/hour
• Do you think all customers can get their pizzas within 20 minutes after they make
the order?
• What if the orders do not arrive in each 3 minutes?
• What if some orders request multiple pizzas?
• What if the processing times are not exactly 2 and 15 minutes?
Managing Service Systems
10
Causes of Waiting: Variability
• The process analysis is based on a long-run performance.
• Even if the process capacity is sufficient to handle the demand, customers may
still need to wait due to the variability of demand or supply
• Predictable variability
• Seasonality (by month, week, day, hour)
• Manage resources to deal with known fluctuations in demand
• Unpredictable variability
•
•
•
•
Inherent randomness
When demand arrives is uncertain
How long processing/service takes is uncertain
Need probabilities to characterize uncertainty
Managing Service Systems
11
Causes of Waiting: Variability (cont’d)
• If demand rate < process capacity:
• Sometimes customers need to wait when the arrival of customers is faster than the
service
• In general, the arrival is slower than the service, so the system can easily deal with
the customers in the waiting line (queue)
• If demand rate = process capability:
• It is more likely that the arrival is faster than the service, and customers need to wait
due the variability
• Because, in general, the arrival is as fast as the service, once a customer is in the
waiting line (queue), it is difficult to deal with that customer
• To avoid customers’ waiting, Pizzas-4-U decides to add more capacity as a buffer.
Now, it has 6 ovens
• Process capacity = min 30, 4 × 6 = 24 > 20 = demand rate
• With this extra capacity, what is the expected customer waiting time? What is the
expected number of the customers in the queue?
Managing Service Systems
12
Simulation: Demand Rate < Process Capacity
https://cloud.anylogic.com/assets/embed/?modelId=dba4abd8-4b7b-41a6-b62a-bef250dc1754
Managing Service Systems
13
Simulation: Demand Rate > Process Capacity
https://cloud.anylogic.com/assets/embed/?modelId=dba4abd8-4b7b-41a6-b62a-bef250dc1754
Managing Service Systems
14
Short Summary: Waiting Line (Queue)
No Variability
With Variability
Demand < Process Capacity
No queue
Stable system
Queue exists
Stable system
Demand = Process Capacity
No queue
Stable system
Queue builds up
Unstable system
Demand > Process Capacity
Queue builds up
Unstable system
Queue builds up
Unstable system
• We can analyze the performance of the waiting line in a service system where
the demand rate < process capacity
• If the demand rate ≥ process capacity and there exists variability, the system is
not stable, and the first goal is to increase the capacity
Managing Service Systems
15
Short Summary: Key Drivers of Waiting Time
Waiting Time
Variability
Managing Service Systems
Low capacity in
relation to the demand
Demand Variability
High Demand
Service Variability
Low Capacity
16
Example: Queue with a Single Server
• Let’s start with a simple setting: a system with one activity and one resource
Queue
Server
• First, we need to know the demand information: how frequent do customers
arrive the system?
• Interarrival time: the time between the arrivals of two consecutive customers to a
system
• For example, if customer 1 arrives at 10:00 am, and customer 2 arrives at 10:08 am,
the Interarrival time is 8 minutes
• We define the average interarrival time as π‘Žπ‘Ž
1
π‘Žπ‘Ž
• The reciprocal of the average interarrival time is the demand rate
• For example, if the average interarrival time is 3 minutes, then on average, there are
1
20 customers arrive in an hour: demand rate = 20/hours = 3 / minutes
Managing Service Systems
17
Example: Queue with a Single Server (cont’d)
• A service system with one activity and one resource:
Queue
Server
• In addition to the average interarrival time π‘Žπ‘Ž, we also want to know the
variability of the interarrival time
• We only need the relative variability, and therefore we consider the coefficient of
variation πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž , where
Standard deviation of interarrival time
πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž =
average interarrival time
• For example, if the interarrival time has mean = 10 minutes and standard
2
deviation = 2 minutes ⇒ π‘Žπ‘Ž = 10, πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž = = 0.2
Managing Service Systems
10
18
Example: Queue with a Single Server (cont’d)
• A service system with one activity and one resource:
Queue
Server
• Next, we also want to know the information about the processing time.
• We define the average processing time as 𝑝𝑝
1
𝑝𝑝
• The reciprocal of the processing time is the capacity
• We also consider the coefficient of variation of the processing time 𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝 , where
Standard deviation of processing time
𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝 =
average processing time
• For example, if the processing time has mean = 5 minutes and standard deviation = 2
2
minutes ⇒ 𝑝𝑝 = 5, 𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝 = = 0.4
5
• We consider the process where demand rate < capacity ⇒
Managing Service Systems
1
π‘Žπ‘Ž
<
1
𝑝𝑝
⇒ π‘Žπ‘Ž > 𝑝𝑝
19
The Analysis Framework of a Waiting Line
Flow rate = demand rate
Managing Service Systems
20
Estimate Average Waiting Time 𝑻𝑻𝒒𝒒
• We know the following information:
• Interarrival time (demand): average value π‘Žπ‘Ž, coefficient of variation πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž
• Processing time (supply): average value 𝑝𝑝, coefficient of variation 𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝
• First, we can calculate the utilization. Let’s define the service utilization as 𝑒𝑒, and
Flow Rate
Demand rate 1⁄π‘Žπ‘Ž 𝑝𝑝
⇒ 𝑒𝑒 =
=
= <1
𝑒𝑒 =
Capacity
Capacity
1⁄𝑝𝑝 π‘Žπ‘Ž
• The average waiting time π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž is
πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž2 + 𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝2
𝑒𝑒
×
π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž = 𝑝𝑝 ×
1 − 𝑒𝑒
2
Managing Service Systems
21
Practice: Average Waiting Time 𝑻𝑻𝒒𝒒
• A server operates with 75% utilization. The average processing time is 2 minutes
and the standard deviation of processing time is 1 minute. The coefficient of
variation of the arrival process is 1. What is the average time in the queue for
customers?
• 𝑒𝑒 = 0.75
• 𝑝𝑝 = 2
1
2
• πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž = 1, 𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝 = = 0.5
• The average waiting time is
πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž2 + 𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝2
𝑒𝑒
×
π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž = 𝑝𝑝 ×
1 − 𝑒𝑒
2
2
0.75
1 + 0.52
1.25
×
= 3.75
=2×
=2×3×
1 − 0.75
2
2
• On average, it takes 3.5 minutes for waiting.
Managing Service Systems
22
Estimate Average Waiting Time (cont’d)
• π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž = 𝑝𝑝 ×
𝑒𝑒
1−𝑒𝑒
×
πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž2 +𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝2
2
• We will not talk about how to derive this formula. It is based on some advanced
knowledge in probability
• You need to know the high-level ideas about each component in the formula:
• The first term 𝑝𝑝:
• If a customer needs to wait, how long he/she should wait depends on the service time of
the previous customers → the waiting time depend on service time
• The second term 𝑒𝑒⁄ 1 − 𝑒𝑒 :
• If the server is much busier, the customer needs to wait for a longer time
• If the server is almost totally idle (𝑒𝑒 → 0), the waiting time is close to 0 as well
• The third term πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž2 + 𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝2 ⁄2:
• If the relative variability of demand or supply increases, the customer is expected to wait
for a longer time
• If there is no variation (πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž = 𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝 = 0), there is no waiting time either (π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž = 0)
Managing Service Systems
23
Average Waiting Time vs. Utilization
• Please note that the waiting time is not linearly increasing in utilization!
π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž = 𝑝𝑝 ×
πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž2 + 𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝2
𝑒𝑒
×
1 − 𝑒𝑒
2
𝑒𝑒
1 − 𝑒𝑒
• That’s why having almost 100% utilization could be costly!
Managing Service Systems
24
Flow Time and Average Number of Customers
• By definition, flow time = the time between the start and finish
• Flow time = waiting time + processing time
• Average flow time = π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž + 𝑝𝑝
• How can we get the average number of customers in the queue/system?
• Use Little’s Law!
• The average number of customers in the queue (πΌπΌπ‘žπ‘ž ):
π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž
1
πΌπΌπ‘žπ‘ž = 𝑅𝑅 × π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž = × π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž =
π‘Žπ‘Ž
π‘Žπ‘Ž
• The average number of customers in service (𝐼𝐼𝑝𝑝 ):
1
𝑝𝑝
𝐼𝐼𝑝𝑝 = 𝑅𝑅 × π‘π‘ = × π‘π‘ =
π‘Žπ‘Ž
π‘Žπ‘Ž
• The average number of customers in the system: πΌπΌπ‘žπ‘ž + 𝐼𝐼𝑝𝑝
Managing Service Systems
25
Practice (cont’d)
• A server operates with 75% utilization. The average processing time is 2 minutes
and the standard deviation of processing time is 1 minute. The coefficient of
variation of the arrival process is 1. What is the average time in the queue for
customers?
1
2
• 𝑒𝑒 = 0.75, 𝑝𝑝 = 2, πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž = 1, 𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝 = = 0.5
• π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž = 𝑝𝑝 ×
• 𝑒𝑒 =
𝑝𝑝
π‘Žπ‘Ž
=
• Flow time:
2
π‘Žπ‘Ž
𝑒𝑒
1−𝑒𝑒
×
πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž2 +𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝2
2
= 3.75
= 0.75 ⇒ π‘Žπ‘Ž = 2.6667
• π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž + 𝑝𝑝 = 3.75 + 2 = 5.75
• Average number of customers:
• In queue: πΌπΌπ‘žπ‘ž =
• In service:
π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž
π‘Žπ‘Ž
𝑝𝑝
𝐼𝐼𝑝𝑝 =
π‘Žπ‘Ž
=
3.75
2.6667
= 0.75
= 1.4063
• In system: πΌπΌπ‘žπ‘ž + 𝐼𝐼𝑝𝑝 = 2.1563
Managing Service Systems
26
Practice: Average Waiting Time
• Average waiting time: π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž = 𝑝𝑝 ×
𝑒𝑒
1−𝑒𝑒
×
πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž2 +𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝2
2
• You are attending an outdoor event, where there is only one portable toilet
offered to all customers. On average, a person goes to toilet every 5 minutes,
with a standard deviation of 5 minutes. It takes 2 minutes for each person using
the toilet with a standard deviation of 3 minutes. How long would you expect to
wait when you want to use the toilet?
• Information:
5
5
• Interarrival: π‘Žπ‘Ž = 5, πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž = = 1
3
2
• Service: 𝑝𝑝 = 2, 𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝 = = 1.5
• Utilization: 𝑒𝑒 =
𝑝𝑝
π‘Žπ‘Ž
2
5
= = 0.4
• Average waiting time:
π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž = 𝑝𝑝 ×
𝑒𝑒
1−𝑒𝑒
Managing Service Systems
×
πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž2 +𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝2
2
=2
0.4
×
0.6
×
12 +1.52
2
2
3
=2× ×
3.25
2
= 2.167
27
Flow Time and Average Number of Customers
• By definition, flow time = the time between the start and finish
• Flow time = waiting time + processing time
• Average flow time = π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž + 𝑝𝑝
• How can we get the average number of customers in the queue/system?
• Use Little’s Law!
• The average number of customers in the queue (πΌπΌπ‘žπ‘ž ):
π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž
1
πΌπΌπ‘žπ‘ž = 𝑅𝑅 × π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž = × π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž =
π‘Žπ‘Ž
π‘Žπ‘Ž
• The average number of customers in service (𝐼𝐼𝑝𝑝 ):
1
𝑝𝑝
𝐼𝐼𝑝𝑝 = 𝑅𝑅 × π‘π‘ = × π‘π‘ =
π‘Žπ‘Ž
π‘Žπ‘Ž
• The average number of customers in the system: πΌπΌπ‘žπ‘ž + 𝐼𝐼𝑝𝑝
Managing Service Systems
28
Practice (cont’d)
• You are attending an outdoor event, where there is only one portable toilet
offered to all customers. On average, a person goes to toilet every 5 minutes,
with a standard deviation of 5 minutes. It takes 2 minutes for each person using
the toilet with a standard deviation of 3 minutes.
• How long would you expect to wait when you want to use the toilet?
• π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž = 𝑝𝑝 ×
𝑒𝑒
1−𝑒𝑒
×
πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž2 +𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝2
2
=2
0.4
×
0.6
×
12 +1.52
2
= 2.167
• How long would you expect to spend on waiting and using the toilet?
• π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž + 𝑝𝑝 = 2.167 + 2 = 4.167
• How many people are expected to wait for the toilet?
1
π‘Žπ‘Ž
• πΌπΌπ‘žπ‘ž = 𝑅𝑅 × π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž = × π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž = 0.433
• How many people are expected to use the toilet?
1
π‘Žπ‘Ž
1
5
• 𝐼𝐼𝑝𝑝 = 𝑅𝑅 × π‘π‘ = × π‘π‘ = × 2 = 0.4
Managing Service Systems
29
Practice (cont’d)
• A server operates with 75% utilization. The average processing time is 2 minutes
and the standard deviation of processing time is 1 minute. The coefficient of
variation of the arrival process is 1.
• What is the average time in the queue for customers?
1
2
• 𝑒𝑒 = 0.75, 𝑝𝑝 = 2, πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž = 1, 𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝 = = 0.5
• π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž = 𝑝𝑝 ×
• 𝑒𝑒 =
𝑝𝑝
π‘Žπ‘Ž
=
• Flow time:
2
π‘Žπ‘Ž
𝑒𝑒
1−𝑒𝑒
×
πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž2 +𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝2
2
=2
= 0.75 ⇒ π‘Žπ‘Ž = 2.6667
0.75
1+0.52
×
× 2
0.25
= 3.75
• π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž + 𝑝𝑝 = 3.75 + 2 = 5.75
• Average number of customers:
• In queue: πΌπΌπ‘žπ‘ž =
• In service:
π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž
π‘Žπ‘Ž
𝑝𝑝
𝐼𝐼𝑝𝑝 =
π‘Žπ‘Ž
=
3.75
2.6667
= 0.75
= 1.4063
• In system: πΌπΌπ‘žπ‘ž + 𝐼𝐼𝑝𝑝 = 2.1563
Managing Service Systems
30
Obtaining Demand/Supply Information (*)
• Demand: interarrival time
Order
1
2
3
4
5
Arrival Time
8:10 AM
8:15 AM
8:23 AM
8:26 AM
8:30 AM
Interarrival Time
5 minutes
8 minutes
3 minutes
4 minutes
Interarrival time:
• Average: π‘Žπ‘Ž = 5
• Standard deviation: 2.16
2.16
= 0.43
• πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž =
5
• Supply: processing time (service time)
Order
1
2
3
4
5
Service Start Time
8:10 AM
8:15 AM
8:23 AM
8:26 AM
8:31 AM
Service End Time
8:13 AM
8:20 AM
8:26 AM
8:31 AM
8:35 AM
Processing Time
3 minutes
5 minutes
3 minutes
5 minutes
4 minutes
Processing time:
• Average: 𝑝𝑝 = 4
• Standard deviation: 1
1
• πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž = = 0.25
4
• What if the detailed data are unavailable?
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31
Obtaining Demand/Supply Information (cont’d*)
• Suppose the process capacity is sufficient (i.e., demand-constrained process):
• Demand rate = Flow rate = Flow units/time (e.g., 30 customers/hour)
• Average interarrival time = 1/Demand rate (e.g., 1/30 hours = 2 minutes)
• Given the utilization of the resource:
• Capacity of the resource pool = Flow rate/Utilization
• Capacity of a resource = Capacity of the resource pool/number of resource
• Average processing time = 1/Capacity of a resource
• What about the variability?
• Average waiting time: π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž = 𝑝𝑝 ×
𝑒𝑒
1−𝑒𝑒
×
πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž2 +𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝2
2
• If πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž = 𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝 = 1, the formula becomes simpler: π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž = 𝑝𝑝 ×
• What does πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž = 𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝 = 1 means?
𝑒𝑒
1−𝑒𝑒
• The coefficient of variation = 1 implies that average = standard deviation
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32
A Common Setting for Variability (*)
• Exponential distribution has average = standard deviation:
• Probability density function: 𝑓𝑓 π‘₯π‘₯ = πœ†πœ†π‘’π‘’ −πœ†πœ†π‘₯π‘₯
• Cumulative distribution function: 𝑃𝑃 π‘₯π‘₯ ≤ 𝑑𝑑 = 1 − 𝑒𝑒 −πœ†πœ†π‘‘π‘‘
• Mean = standard deviation = 1⁄πœ†πœ†
• Suppose the processing time (service time) follows an exponential distribution:
• Service rate = πœ†πœ†π‘π‘ = capacity (e.g., πœ†πœ†π‘π‘ = 20 customers/hour)
• Average processing time = 1⁄πœ†πœ†π‘π‘ (e.g., 1/20 hours = 3 minutes)
• The standard deviation of the processing time is also 1⁄πœ†πœ†π‘π‘ ⇒ 𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝 = 1
• Suppose the interarrival time follows an exponential distribution:
•
•
•
•
Arrival rate = πœ†πœ†π‘Žπ‘Ž = demand rate (e.g., πœ†πœ†π‘Žπ‘Ž = 15 customers/hour)
Average interarrival time = 1⁄πœ†πœ†π‘Žπ‘Ž (e.g., 1/15 hours = 4 minutes)
The standard deviation of the interarrival time is also 1⁄πœ†πœ†π‘Žπ‘Ž ⇒ πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž = 1
The exponentially distributed interarrival time implies Poisson arrivals
Managing Service Systems
33
A Common Setting for Variability (cont’d*)
• The pattern of an exponential distribution with service rate = 5 customers/hour:
• Average processing time: 12 minutes
5
4.5
Probability that the processing time < 6 minutes
4
3.5
3
Probability that the processing time is 6 - 12 minutes
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
Minutes
42
48
54
60
66
72
• Think about whether the demand/service follows such a pattern!
Managing Service Systems
34
Service System with Multiple Servers
• In practice, a system can have multiple servers and a common queue
• Call center
• Self checkouts in grocery stores/supermarkets
• Restroom
• How to measure the performance of this service system?
Managing Service Systems
35
Analysis of Multiple-Server Service Systems
• The concept of process analysis can be applied to the analysis!
• If each server has identical average processing time 𝑝𝑝:
• What is the capacity of each server?
• What is the total capacity of π‘šπ‘š servers?
• The demand does not change!
• The arrival of customers is not affected by the number of servers
• The average interarrival time and the coefficient of variation keep the same
• What is the utilization of all servers?
Managing Service Systems
36
Analysis of Multiple-Server Service Systems (cont’d)
• Average waiting time with a common queue and π‘šπ‘š servers:
πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž2 + 𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝2
𝑝𝑝
𝑒𝑒 2 π‘šπ‘š+1 −1
×
π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž = ×
π‘šπ‘š
1 − 𝑒𝑒
2
• Remember that utilization 𝑒𝑒 =
𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 π‘Ÿπ‘Ÿπ‘Ÿπ‘Ÿπ‘Ÿπ‘Ÿπ‘Ÿπ‘Ÿ
𝐢𝐢𝐢𝐢𝐢𝐢𝐢𝐢𝐢𝐢𝐢𝐢𝐢𝐢𝐢𝐢
=
1
π‘Žπ‘Ž
1
×π‘šπ‘š
𝑝𝑝
=
𝑝𝑝
π‘Žπ‘Ž×π‘šπ‘š
• The utilization should be smaller than 1: 𝑝𝑝 < π‘Žπ‘Ž × π‘šπ‘š
• If there is only one server, we can get:
πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž2 + 𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝2
πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž2 + 𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝2
𝑝𝑝
𝑒𝑒 2 1+1 −1
𝑒𝑒
×
×
= 𝑝𝑝 ×
π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž = ×
1
1 − 𝑒𝑒
1 − 𝑒𝑒
2
2
• The formula in the single-server service system is the special case when π‘šπ‘š = 1!
• We can use Little’s Law to get the average number of waiting customers:
πΏπΏπ‘žπ‘ž = 𝑅𝑅 × π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž
Managing Service Systems
37
Practice: Checkout Services
• There are 4 servers in the checkout area. The average interarrival time of
customers is 2 minutes. The average processing time is 5 minutes. Assume
Poisson arrivals and exponential service time (i.e., πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž = 𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝 = 1).
• What is the average time in the queue for a customer?
• Utilization:
• π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž =
𝑝𝑝
π‘šπ‘š
5
4
×
= ×
𝑝𝑝
π‘Žπ‘Ž×π‘šπ‘š
=
5
2×4
𝑒𝑒 2 π‘šπ‘š+1 −1
1−𝑒𝑒
= 0.625
×
0.625 2× 4+1 −1
0.375
πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž2 +𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝2
×
2
12 +12
2
5
4
= ×
0.625 10−1
0.375
5
4
= ×
0.6252.1623
0.375
≅ 1.21
• What is the average (total) time in process for a customer?
• π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž + 𝑝𝑝 = 1.21 + 5 = 6.21
• What is the average number of waiting customers?
1
2
• πΏπΏπ‘žπ‘ž = 𝑅𝑅 × π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž = × 1.21 = 0.605
Managing Service Systems
38
Practice: Hospital
• An emergency room of a local hospital employs 3 nurse practitioners who attend
to patients arriving at the emergency room. Emergency patients arrive randomly
at an average rate of 3 per hour. The amount of time that a nurse practitioner
spends with a patient is also random, with a mean of 30 min. Assume that the
arrival follows a Poisson process, and the service time is exponentially
distributed.
• What is the average patient waiting time?
• Average interarrival time π‘Žπ‘Ž = 20 minutes
• Utilization:
• π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž =
=
𝑝𝑝
π‘šπ‘š
×
30
3
Managing Service Systems
×
𝑝𝑝
π‘Žπ‘Ž×π‘šπ‘š
=
30
20×3
𝑒𝑒 2 π‘šπ‘š+1 −1
1−𝑒𝑒
= 0.5
×
0.5 2× 3+1 −1
0.5
πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž2 +𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝2
×
2
12 +12
2
=
30
3
×
0.5 8−1
0.5
=
30
0.51.8284
×
0.5
3
≅ 5.63
39
Practice: Hospital (cont’d)
• An emergency room of a local hospital employs 3 nurse practitioners who attend
to patients arriving at the emergency room. Emergency patients arrive randomly
at an average rate of 3 per hour. The amount of time that a nurse practitioner
spends with a patient is also random, with a mean of 30 min. Assume that the
arrival follows a Poisson process, and the service time is exponentially
distributed.
• The hospital is considering reducing the number of nurse practitioners in the
emergency room to 2. What’s the effect on the patient waiting time?
• Utilization:
• π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž =
=
𝑝𝑝
π‘šπ‘š
×
30
2
×
𝑝𝑝
π‘Žπ‘Ž×π‘šπ‘š
=
30
20×2
𝑒𝑒 2 π‘šπ‘š+1 −1
1−𝑒𝑒
= 0.75
×
0.75 2× 2+1 −1
0.25
πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž2 +𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝2
×
2
12 +12
2
=
30
0.75 6−1
×
0.25
2
=
30
0.751.4495
×
0.25
2
≅ 39.54
• The waiting time with 3 nurse practitioners: 5.63
• The waiting time increases by 39.54 − 5.63 = 33.91 minutes!
Managing Service Systems
40
Practice: Hospital (cont’d)
• An emergency room of a local hospital employs 3 nurse practitioners who attend
to patients arriving at the emergency room. Emergency patients arrive randomly
at an average rate of 3 per hour. The amount of time that a nurse practitioner
spends with a patient is also random, with a mean of 30 min. Assume that the
arrival follows a Poisson process, and the service time is exponentially
distributed.
• Can the hospital further decrease the number of nurse practitioners to be 1?
1
π‘Žπ‘Ž
• The demand rate: = 3 patients/hour
1
𝑝𝑝
• Capacity of a nurse practitioner: =
1
0.5 hours
1
π‘Žπ‘Ž
• A system would be stable only when <
π‘šπ‘š
𝑝𝑝
= 2 patients/hour
⇒ 3 < 2 × π‘šπ‘š!
• The hospital needs at least π‘šπ‘š = 1.5 practitioners! However, we need a positive
integer, and therefore the hospital needs at least 2 practitioners.
Managing Service Systems
41
Pooled Queue vs. Separate Queue
• If the demand rate and service rate are the same in these two systems, which
system would have a lower average customer waiting time?
Managing Service Systems
42
Pooled Queue vs. Separate Queue (cont’d)
• For simplicity, we assume that the systems have a Poisson arrival and
exponentially distributed service time
• Pooled Queue:
• π‘Žπ‘Ž = 25, 𝑝𝑝 = 90, π‘šπ‘š = 4
• Utilization: 𝑒𝑒 =
• π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž =
𝑝𝑝
π‘šπ‘š
×
𝑝𝑝
π‘Žπ‘Ž×π‘šπ‘š
=
𝑒𝑒 2 π‘šπ‘š+1 −1
1−𝑒𝑒
90
100
=
= 0.9
90
0.9 10−1
× 0.1
4
= 179.16
• Separated Queue:
• π‘Žπ‘Ž = 25 × 4 = 100, 𝑝𝑝 = 90
• Utilization: 𝑒𝑒 =
• π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž = 𝑝𝑝 ×
𝑒𝑒
1−𝑒𝑒
𝑝𝑝
π‘Žπ‘Ž
=
90
100
= 90 ×
= 0.9
0.9
0.1
= 810
• The average waiting time of the separated queue is much higher… why?
Managing Service Systems
43
Pooled Queue vs. Separate Queue (cont’d)
• Economic of scale:
• By combining all the demand and all the supply (servers), the demand and supply
can match better, and the customer waiting time is reduced.
• Flexibility to serve customers:
Managing Service Systems
44
Why Are Separate Queues Still Common?
• Layout of the waiting line(s):
• Strategic behavior of customers:
• The arrival of customers in the separate queue may not be purely random
• The customers may observe the waiting line first and decide which line to join
• The customers may switch from one queue to another queue
• Heterogenous services:
• The servers may offer different services (e.g., bank, post office, airport security
check, …)
Managing Service Systems
45
Summary
• Average waiting time: π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž =
𝑝𝑝
π‘šπ‘š
×
𝑒𝑒 2 π‘šπ‘š+1 −1
1−𝑒𝑒
• When the number of server π‘šπ‘š = 1: π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž = 𝑝𝑝 ×
• Average total time in the system: π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž + 𝑝𝑝
×
πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž2 +𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝2
𝑒𝑒
1−𝑒𝑒
2
×
πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž2 +𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝2
2
• How to get πΆπΆπ‘‰π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ž = 𝐢𝐢𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝 = 1?
• Poisson arrival
• Exponential service time
• Average number of customers:
• In the waiting line: 𝑅𝑅 × π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž = π‘‡π‘‡π‘žπ‘ž ⁄π‘Žπ‘Ž
• In service: 𝑅𝑅 × π‘π‘ = 𝑝𝑝⁄π‘Žπ‘Ž
• The power of pooling: A pooled queue can have a lower average waiting time.
Managing Service Systems
46
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