Topic 1. Financial Markets and Instruments (chapter 1, 2) Lecture Outline 1. What will we learn in this class? 2. What are the basic properties of financial markets? 3. Who are the major players in financial markets? 4. What are available for investing in the Fixed Income market? 5. What are available for investing in the Equity market? 6. Reading: textbook Chapter 1 & 2. 1 Financial Advisor - Financial markets and instruments - Security trading - Mutual funds and ETFs - Risk-return tradeoff - Portfolio diversification - Asset allocation Security Analyst or Trader - Equity valuation - Asset pricing models - Option market - Bond market 2 I. Financial Instruments Fixed-Income Money market: short-term (<1 year) Capital market: long-term (>1 year) Equity Derivative (see Topic 9) II. Basic Properties of Financial Markets There is almost always a risk-return tradeoff. You cannot enjoy higher returns without taking higher risk There is rarely free lunch (risk-free profit, arbitrage opportunity) Example: Consider investment in S&P500 stock index *10-year Treasury bond * 3-month Treasury bills 3 Return Year Average Annual Return: T-Bill: 3.36%; Which one is more volatile? T-Bond: 5.45%; S&P500 Stocks: 11.9% 4 III. Major Players in the Financial Market • Business Firms (net capital demanders) • Households (net capital suppliers) • Governments (can be both demanders and suppliers) • Financial Intermediaries (connectors of demanders and suppliers) * Commercial banks: take deposits and lend loans to businesses * Investment companies: firms that manage funds for investors, such as pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds * Insurance companies IV. Financial Instruments in Details 5 The money market 1. Treasury Bills Short-term claims on U.S. government Maturities: 4, 13, 26, 52 weeks Where to buy: directly from Treasury or from government security dealers, www.treasurydirect.gov Sold at discount a. No coupons payments b. The return arises from the difference between purchase price and face value 6 Taxes: income is taxable at the federal level but exempt from all state and local taxes. Nominal return assumed to be riskfree *Free of default risk & interest rate risk (risk free asset) 2. Certificates of Deposit (CDs) Time deposits with a bank. Issued by banks and credit unions to raise funds for financing their business and held mostly by money market mutual funds Insured by FDIC up to $250,000 Principle and interest paid at maturity Negotiability: Non-negotiable: holder must wait until maturity to obtain funds (withdrawal penalty) Negotiable: holder can trade in a secondary market (mostly CDs in denominations larger than $100,000) 7 Spread between 3-month CD and T-bill rates During crisis, investors lost confidence in banks. What happened to CD yield? *Risk-return tradeoff principle: perceived bank risk goes up 8 3. Commercial Paper (CP) Short-term unsecured notes issued by large, wellknown companies Maturities typically 1-2 months (maximum of 270 days) Maturities longer than 270 days would require registration with the SEC, so are almost never used Sold at a discount with denominations of $100,000 (face value) and held by money market mutual funds and pension funds CP is relatively safe assets ** Example of default: On 9/15/2008, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, defaulted on a large amount of commercial paper. ** Yield on CP is slightly __higher______ than that on T-bills with the same maturity. ** During the financial crisis in September of 2008, the difference in yield is more than 3% (CP 4.2%, 3-month T-bills 0.5%). 9 “Asset-backed” commercial paper Before 2007, many banks issued “Asset-backed” commercial paper to raise funds for investment in subprime mortgages. When subprime mortgages began defaulting in the summer of 2007, the banks were unable to issue new CP to refinance their position as the old paper matured. = the 2008-09 financial crisis 4. Eurodollars Dollar denominated deposits at foreign banks or foreign branches of US banks Eurodollar time deposit: is the liability of the US bank. (not tradable) Eurodollar CDs: is the liability of a foreign branch of the US bank. (tradable in the secondary market) ** (Riskier, offers higher yield)*(Higher liquidity) 10 5. Repurchase Agreements (Repos and reverses repos) Sale of a security with a commitment by the seller to buy the security back from the purchaser at a specified price at a designated future date. Basically a collateralized loan, where the collateral is the security Borrower A (repo) Lender B (reverse repo) *Borrower (seller) is doing a repo transaction; lender (buyer) is doing a reverse repo transaction. Very low credit risk (collateralized) Dealer firms use the repo market to finance inventory and cover short positions 11 The fixed-income capital market 1. Treasury Notes and Bonds Only real difference between T-notes and T-bonds is maturity T-notes are issued with maturities up to 10 years, whereas T-bonds are issued with maturities from 10 to 30 years T-notes and T-bonds pay coupons semi-annually and they pay their face value ($1000) at maturity 147.023??? Meaning that 147.023% of face value = 147.023%*1000 = $1470.23 12 2. Inflation-Protected Treasury Bonds TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) in US The face value (and coupon) is adjusted in proportional to increases in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). You can buy TIPS at www.treasurydirect.gov 13 TIPS face value is $1000 at the issuance, suppose CPI increases by 10%, what’s the new face value? (assume coupon rate=4.5%) New face value = $1000(1+10%) = $1100, coupon = 4.5%*$1100 = $49.5 Question: Do TIPS bonds in general offer a higher, lower, or the same yield as conventional treasury bonds with the same coupon and maturity? Lower yield because of no inflation risk. Risk-return trade-off 3. Municipal bonds (Munis) Issued by state and local governments Coupons from munis are exempt from federal income taxation, and from state and local taxation in the issuing state, though typically capital gains are taxable Yields on munis are lower than on similar risk taxable bonds 14 Suppose that t: the investor’s federal plus local marginal tax rate rtaxable: the total before-tax rate of return on taxable bonds rmuni: the total rate of return on municipal bonds After-tax return (rmuni) = Before-tax return (rtaxable)*(1-tax rate) Equivalent taxable yield: Cutoff tax bracket: the tax rate at which the after-tax yield of the taxable bond is equal to yield on the municipal bond, i.e., . Example: Suppose my tax bracket is 28%. Shall I prefer to earn a 6% taxable return or a 4% tax-free yield? What is the equivalent taxable yield of the 4% tax-free yield? Let’s find the after-tax return (1) 6% taxable bond (after-tax yield=6%*(1-0.28) = 4.32%)- I pick this bond (2) 4% tax-free bond (after-tax yield=4%) equivalent taxable yield=4%/(1-0.28) = 5.55% How about someone with a tax bracket of 38%? 15 (1) 6% taxable bond (after-tax yield=6%*(1-0.38) = 3.72%) (2) 4% tax-free bond (after-tax yield=4%) – this investor will pick this bond Question: Who are more likely to buy munis, high taxbracket investors or low tax-bracket investors? high taxbracket investors 4. Mortgage-backed Securities Ownership claim in a pool of mortgage or an obligation that is secured by such a pool. 16 Risk-return trade-off 5. Corporate bonds Claims on fixed payments from a corporation a. Typically receive semi-annual coupons over life of bond b. Receive face value ($1000) when bond matures Risk a. Interest rate risk b. Default risk (credit risk) Corporate bonds are rated according to their default risk 17 Moodys: Aaa, Aa, A, Baa, Ba, B, Caa, Ca, C, D[1,2,3] S&P: AAA, AA A, BBB, BB, B, CCC, CC, C, D[+,-] Investment grade (>=BBB or Baa) “Junk bonds” or speculative grade (<BBB or Baa) c. Bonds are generally less risky than stocks Higher priority than stocks and can force firm into bankruptcy if claims not paid Secured bonds (paid first) Unsecured bonds (debentures) (paid second) Low liquidity Mostly traded over-the-counter The equity market 18 1. Common stocks Represent residual ownership of a corporation a. May receive dividends on quarterly basis b. Receive whatever is left over if a firm liquidates— residual claim *In the case of liquidation, a firm is going to pay as follows: - Creditors (secured bond, unsecured bond) - Preferred stockholders - Common stockholders c. The most shareholders can lose is their original investment—limited liability d. Have voting rights Stock quotation 19 Dividend yield P/E ratio 2. Preferred Stocks 20 Somewhere between common stock and corporate bond (hybrid) Bond-like features a. Promise to pay fixed dividend *Unpaid dividends cumulate and must be paid in full before any dividends may be paid to common shareholders. b. Usually no voting rights c. Has lower priority than bonds but higher priority than common stocks in liquidation Stock-like features a. Failure to pay dividend does not cause bankruptcy b. Preferred stock does not have a specific maturity Dividend payments are not tax-deductible for issuing firms. But corporation may exclude 50% of dividends received from preferred stocks in their taxable income. 3. American Depository Receipts 21 American Depository Receipts (ADRs), are certificates issued by U.S. banks and traded in U.S. stock markets that represent ownership in shares of a foreign company. Example Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA): IPO on September 18, 2014. New York Stock Exchange 1:1 China Citi Group (depositary bank) ADRs were created to make it easier for foreign firms to satisfy U.S. security registration requirements. 22 ADRs provide an excellent way for investors to invest in a foreign company while realizing any dividends and capital gains in U.S. dollars. 4. Stock Market Indexes Summary of 3 types of indexes: (1) Price weighted: invests equal number of shares in each stock, or $ amount proportional to the price of each firm. Price weighted index level = average price of all stocks (2) Market value weighted: invests $ amount proportional to the market value (price*number of shares outstanding) of each firm. Return on a value-weighted index = % change of market value of all stocks. (3) Equally-weighted: invests equal $ amount in each stock. Return on an Equally-weighted index = average return of all stocks. Dow Jones Indices 23 - Industrial (30), Transportation (20), Utilities (15), Composite (65) 24 - Price-weighted index ** Price weighted portfolio is like holding the same number of each stock in the portfolio. Example: Stock ABC XYZ Total Initial Final value of value of Initial Price Final Price Shares stocks stocks t=0 t=1 (million) t=0 t=1 $25 $30 20 500 600 100 90 1 100 90 600 690 - The Divisor is adjusted if a stock splits or a stock dividend is paid Example: Suppose stock XYZ splits 2:1 at initial time Stock Initial Final value of value of Initial Price Final Price Shares stocks stocks t=0 t=1 (million) t=0 t=1 25 ABC XYZ $25 50 $30 45 20 2 Total 500 100 600 90 600 690 With the 2:1 split, Index level(0)= Without the 2:1 split: Index level(0)= Examples of two DJIA companies ** There 3 problems with DJIA: 1. Price weighted index puts higher weights on stocks with higher price, not higher market value. 2. Index return is sensitive to stock split because split changes the weights of stocks used in the index. 3. Only contains 30 firms, how representative is it to the entire market? Standard and Poor’s Indices 26 - Standard & Poor’s Composite 500 index, Industrial (400), Transportation (20), Utilities (40), Financial (40) - More broadly based index - Value-weighted index ** Value-weighted portfolio is like investing $$ amount proportional to the market cap of each stock in the portfolio. - Weight is proportional to the company’s market value, which changes automatically with market price - Return on value-weighted index is the return on the entire market Index return = (Total market val ue of the entire index) End 1 (Total market val ue of the entire index) Beg Example Index level (0) is set to 100 pts (an arbitrary number), find index level and index return of a value-weighted index containing stock ABC and XYZ. Other value-weighted indexes a. Russell 3000 index Seek to be a benchmark of the entire U.S stock market, maintained by FTSE Russell b. Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) indexes 27 Value-weighted indices for international markets c. Nasdaq index Equally-weighted index (e.g., QQQE) ** Equally-weighted portfolio is like investing equal dollar values in each stock. - Return on equally-weighted index is the average return of all stocks within the index. Index return = Ret ABC Ret XYZ 2 Example: Find equally-weighted return of the index containing stock ABC and XYZ. Stock ABC XYZ Total Initial Final value of value of Initial Price Final Price Shares stocks stocks t=0 t=1 (million) t=0 t=1 500 $25 $30 20 (25*20) 600 100 90 1 100 90 600 690 28 ** Section 2.5 (Derivative Markets) is for future reading 29