All English Editorials 25--1

THE HINDU 8 Thursday, January 25, 2024 Editorial Delhi The issue of genocide and the world court Dangerous status quo In Manipur, unless non-state actors are demilitarised, hostilities will persist E Choppy waters India and the Maldives must persist with quiet diplomacy to reset ties W ithin weeks of the IndiaMaldives showdown over derogatory remarks by Maldivian Ministers and the call for Indian tourists to boycott the archipelago, as well as the tussle over Indian troops stationed in Maldives, Delhi and Male are dealing with anoth er controversy. This time it is over the Chinese “research” ship Xiang Yang Hong 03, that is ex pected to dock in Male in February. India has made its concerns over Chinese ships in the In dian Ocean clear. After objecting to visits by Chi nese “research” vessels to Sri Lanka, New Delhi managed to ensure that Colombo banned, from 2024, all foreign research ships, that are believed to collect data for military and civilian purposes, from docking there. For New Delhi, the welcome mat for Chinese ships, at a time the new govern ment of President Muizzu has scrapped the India Maldives hydrography agreement, has played out as a rebuff. Male also welcomed a visit by the commander of the United States IndoPacific Command, who presented equipment. That the developments follow other setbacks, beginning with Mr. Muizzu’s electoral win last year after he ran with an “India Out” campaign slogan, his go vernment’s plans to push out Indian personnel and his decision to prioritise visits to Türkiye, the UAE and China have made it more worrying. It is significant that despite Male’s pushback and hyper nationalist calls within India, New Del hi has not stopped engaging the Muizzu govern ment. Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Mr. Muizzu in December and set up a highlevel core group for bilateral negotiations on tricky issues. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar also met with his Maldivian counterpart last week. It is hoped that both sides realise that their tensions are merely symptoms of problems that could get larger: one, a regional power that aspires to be a global power, and the other, an archipelago de pendent for its economic and regional security needs on external forces. While sovereignty is pa ramount for any country, it is important that the two sides see the benefit of a détente over con frontation. For India, whose neighbourhood first policy focuses on helping according to its neigh bour’s priorities, it is ungainly to be seen as foist ing its military, that has carried out humanitarian operations, on the Maldives. For the Muizzu go vernment, that just lost a significant election for Male mayor, the impact of the animus with India on upcoming Majlis (parliamentary) elections should also be a worry. In that sense, the Mal dives decision to invite the Xiang Yang Hong 03, but not to allow it more than a routine port call is hopefully a sign that quiet diplomacy is working. A rational approach is more likely to shore trou bled bilateral ties out of the choppy waters now. CM YK The legal context In order to make sense of this debate, it is important to understand the international legal context of these proceedings. The crime of genocide is characterised by actions intended to destroy in whole, or in substantial part, a defined group of people. Genocide is treated as the most serious of international crimes. For this reason, every state has an obligation (known as an “erga omnes obligation”) to take steps to prevent the occurrence of genocide, wherever it may occur. This is the basis on which South Africa, a party that is technically unrelated to the conflict in Gaza, claims standing to bring this case to the ICJ. This is not new. In recent times, The Gambia instituted proceedings against Myanmar with respect to the genocide of the Rohingya, and successfully obtained provisional measures. At the same time, demonstrating the existence of the crime of genocide, however, requires demonstrating specific intent (“dolus specialis”), which is often a tall order. It is for this reason that South Africa’s request for provisional measures, Gautam Bhatia is a New Delhibased lawyer The case of South Africa instituting proceedings against Israel in the International Court of Justice over the Gaza war is also a vital stress test of the ‘rules-based international order’ and the hearing on January 1112, were particularly important. “Provisional measures” are equivalent to what we would understand as “interim orders”: they are issued pending the final determination of a case, in order to protect the rights of either party from being irreparably harmed. For obvious reasons, at the stage of provisional measures, the threshold of proof is much lower than in a final hearing — as The Gambia versus Myanmar case showed, a party must only demonstrate a plausible case that genocide is being carried out. In order to make out this plausible case, other than highlighting the decades of Palestinian dispossession and suffering from the 1948 nakba, the number of deaths in Gaza during the present war (24,000plus, on the last count), the widespread destruction of civilian infrastructure (from hospitals to universities), and the imminent threat of famine and disease (as noted by United Nations officials), South Africa also argued that highlevel Israeli politicians (from the President and Prime Minister, downwards) had made genocidal statements, which were then echoed by soldiers on the ground in Gaza, while making TikTok reels. Israel, on the other hand, argued that there was no dispute between the parties, and that even if there was, these statements were open to more than one interpretation, and in any case, did not reflect operational protocols of the army. It said that the scope of the military operation was limited to destroying Hamas (and to that extent, the operation was consistent with the rules of international humanitarian law), in response to Hamas’ attacks on October 7, which had killed around 1,200 people, and led to around 240 people being taken hostage. The next stage The key question at this stage is that if the ICJ finds that South Africa has fulfilled the plausibility requirement, what are the provisional measures that it might order? South Africa has asked for an immediate cessation of military hostilities. International law experts are of the opinion that the court might not be able to go that far (although it did do so recently, in the Ukraine versus Russia case); the core issue, then, is about how the court will tailor its provisional measures. A range of alternatives have been suggested — from compelling Israel to allow the entry of food and other resources into Gaza (in order to stave off the threat of famine), to a humanitarian ceasefire, to directing Israeli leaders to refrain from making further genocidal statements. The court also has the power to craft its own interim measures, beyond what the parties have asked for. It is important to note that the ICJ is not the only forum for proceedings that have to do with the situation in Gaza. It has been asked why the ICJ proceedings are onesided, in that it is only Israel in the dock, and not Hamas. The answer to that is that Hamas cannot be brought to the ICJ, as it is a nonstate actor. Hamas officials (and also, Israeli officials) can, however, be proceeded against at the International Criminal Court (the ICC), which is a different body from the ICJ. This would require the situation in Palestine/Israel to be referred for investigation to the ICC, which has already been done. So far, however, no further steps have been taken by the ICC. Beyond the law, the nature of the split between countries has led to debate. It has been pointed out, for example, that in The Gambia versus Myanmar case, Germany (along with a group of other states) intervened and argued in favour of a broad reading of the Genocide Convention. It is now being wondered aloud how the same nationstate will intervene in the South Africa versus Israel case, and seemingly advocate an opposite position. More than that, however, with a few exceptions (such as Belgium) the split, as documented by the international law scholar Alonso Gurmendi, seems to track the divide between countries that were formerly colonial or imperial powers, and countries that were not. A defining moment This is not entirely coincidental: it has long been argued that modern international law was invented by the imperial “West”, with a view to safeguarding its own material interests. For this reason, these proceedings are being viewed by many not only as being about Israel, Palestine, and the war in Gaza, but also about the legitimacy of international law itself, a situation that is not helped by belligerent statements issued by nationstates such as France. While the ICJ’s order on provisional measures, and, subsequently, its decision in the main case, is vital primarily for the purpose of helping to mitigate, and imposing legal accountability for, the suffering in Gaza, beyond that, it is also a vital stress test of what is often referred to as the “rulesbased international order”. Whether that term has any bite, or whether it is only a convenient fiction, will become particularly clear over the next few months, depending on what the ICJ does, and how other nationstates respond. India’s problem — different drugs, identical brand names R ecently, oncologist Dr. Vincent Rajkumar expressed his shock on social media over the fact that two different drugs, treating entirely different conditions, had identical brand names — ‘Linamac’. While the drug bearing the name ‘Linamac 5’ is used to treat multiple myeloma, which is a type of cancer, the other drug bearing the name ‘Linamac’ is a drug used to treat diabetes. The consequences of confusion between these medications at the pharmacy can be serious for patients. An old problem The use of identical trade names for drugs with different active ingredients is an old problem in India, and the medical community has been complaining about the issue for several decades. The most popular example cited by doctors is that of the brand name Medzole, which is used by four different companies to sell four different active ingredients treating entirely different medical conditions. The first company uses ‘Medzol’ to sell a drug containing Midazolam which is used as a sedative. The second company uses the name ‘MedzoleDSR’ to sell a combination of domperidone and pantoprazole which is used to treat stomach acidity. A third company uses the name ‘Medzole 400’ for a formulation containing albendazole that is used in deworming treatment for children. A fourth company uses ‘Medzole 200’ for a formulation containing Itraconazole, which is a powerful antifungal drug used to treat diseases such as “black fungus”. The use of identical trade names is only one part of the problem. The more wideranging problem is the use of similar trade names which are phonetically and visually similar. For example, while one company uses the brand ‘Medpol’ to sell paracetamol, a second company uses the brand ‘Medrol’ to sell a corticosteroid and a third company uses ‘Metrozole’ to sell an antibiotic. These names sound phonetically similar to ‘Medzole’ and also similar to each other, with only a letter or two substituted. It is not always that different companies use identical or similar names to sell different active ingredients. Sometimes, the same company will harvest a successful brand name for one Dinesh Thakur is the coauthor of The Truth Pill: The Myth of Drug Regulation in India (2022) Prashant Reddy T. is the coauthor of The Truth Pill: The Myth of Drug Regulation in India (2022) It is a case of deadly similarity which the medical community has been complaining about for many years, to no avail formulation to promote a second formulation. For example, the company that uses the brand name ‘IPill’ to sell an emergency contraceptive (ECP) containing Levonorgestrel, uses the brand name ‘iPill Daily’ as a daily contraceptive pill containing Levonorgestrel and Ethinylestradiol. An ECP is used after sexual intercourse to prevent fertilisation, while a daily contraceptive is used to prevent ovulation and fertilisation. These are not interchangeable, and any confusion at the pharmacy can cause unwanted pregnancies. The use of such identical or similar names is especially worrying in a country such as India for two reasons. First, the packaging of all drugs in India bears the name and prescription advice in the English language, a language spoken by less than 10% of the population. Second, Indian pharmacies are poorly regulated. Not only do many pharmacies in India routinely dispense drugs without prescriptions, but several also do not comply with the legal requirement to operate only with trained pharmacists who are registered with the Pharmacy Council of India. These factors already increase the possibility of errors in dispensing drugs. Add to this deadly combination, identical or similar sounding brand names of drugs, and the possibility of prescription errors increases even further. Judiciary’s recommendation The problem of similar or identical trade names for drugs has been known for several decades. The Supreme Court of India (in Cadila Health Care Ltd. vs Cadila Pharmaceuticals Ltd., 2001) and the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Health and Family Welfare in its 59th report (2012) urged the Ministry of Health to put in place processes to prevent the use of names for drugs that are confusingly similar. After all, even the Registrar of Companies and the Office of Registrar of Newspapers for India have systems in place to ensure that no two companies or publications have identical or similar names. Regrettably, the recommendations of the Court and Parliament were ignored by the Ministry of Health, until in 2019 when Justice Pratibha M. Singh of the Delhi High Court, a former intellectual property lawyer, hauled up the Drugs Controller General of India (DCGI) in yet another case of pharmaceutical trademark infringement that landed on her docket. Pharmaceutical companies regularly litigate against each other under trademark law in courts across India over same or similar sounding trademarks. Under Justice Singh’s watch, the Ministry of Health brought in the Drugs and Cosmetics (Thirteenth Amendment) Rules, 2019. These rules put in place a flimsy system that required pharmaceutical companies to provide an “undertaking” to State drug controllers, along with their applications for manufacturing licences, that the brand name of the drug for which they were seeking a manufacturing licence was unlikely to cause “confusion or deception in the market”. To this end, the rules required pharmaceutical companies to carry out a search for similar names “…in trademarks registry, central database for brand name or trade name of drugs maintained by Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation [CDSCO], literature and reference books on details of drug formulations in India, and internet”. This framework was pointless for two reasons. First, selfcertification just does not work in India, as evident from the fact that many drugs in India continue to have confusingly similar names. Second, even if a company wanted to comply with the new rule, there is no database in India of all pharmaceutical brandnames. The CDSCO would first have to build such a database by collecting data from the 36 different drug controllers in each State and Union Territory. No data in India As a country, India has no data on prescription errors. And for the Ministry of Health, the absence of data is the absence of a problem. Once the Ministry of Health accepts that there is a problem, it can start the reform process by replicating mechanisms such as those that exist in the United States and Europe. Both jurisdictions have specific divisions within their drug regulators to examine the names of drugs on a number of factors to avoid confusion in order to minimise prescription errors. There is not an iota of political will within the Drug Regulation Section of the Ministry of Health to undertake similar reforms in India. LETTERS TO THE EDITOR Diplomacy, reality check India’s relationships with its neighbours such as Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Myanmar are drifting. The kind of support to the newly elected government in Bangladesh that has been throttling the democratic process is not so welcome. The kind of response by the Indian government to the ongoing wars between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Hamas are not well relished by the socalled western powers. The vexed relationship with Pakistan is well known and the challenges with China seem to be never ending. And India, a nation that is called the largest democracy in the world, is drifting towards theocracy. May the authorities in India spare some time to introspect and try to take appropriate policy decisions. There need to be good diplomatic efforts to set things right. Cavery Palani, Chennai Ayodhya’s future Ayodhya can be made an international peace summit spot which will also give a boost to the tourism value and earnings of Ayodhya. The huge money that is bound to pour in can be utilised for a number of welfare projects. P.V. Madhu Nivriti, Secunderabad Corrections & Clarifications In the story regarding a Home Ministry team being sent to Manipur (Janu ary 23, 2024), the headline erroneously read “Meitei MLAs call for ‘positive action’.” It should have merely said “MLAs.” In the text, the reference to a resolution by “35 Meitei MLAs” was erroneous. It should have read “35 MLAs excluding the ten KukiZo legislators.” Elsewhere in the text, the ref erence to “Meitei MLAs” should have been “MLAs.” The Readers’ Editor’s office can be contacted by Telephone: +914428418297/28576300; Email:readerseditor@thehindu.co.in U.S. poll candidate race Donald Trump, who seems to be making gains, is no stranger to turning to racism and name calling against his foes. Interestingly, Nikki Haley has refused to exit. But, her shaky rationale for continuing her campaign may face a terminal reality. Gregory Fernandes, Mumbai M ND-NDE e2149499 e2149499 ight months after ethnic violence broke out between the largely valleydwelling Meitei and the hilldwelling KukiZo com munities in Manipur, hostilities continue. The ethnic polarisation has persisted and displaced people on both sides are still unable to return to their homes; schooling and health care remain disrupted and the writ of the State government does not run in the KukiZo hill areas. The go vernment’s inability to win peace and the failure of institutions such as the State Assembly to de liberate on the problem have compounded the conflict even as the Chief Minister, N. Biren Singh, continues to be seen more as an ethnic leader, preventing the possibility of any thaw in the per vasive hostility. Even media and civil society or ganisations seem to be divided on ethnic lines and, more dangerously, the role of the army and central paramilitary forces is being seen through this lens, evident in the utterances of the Chief Minister and representatives of ethnic chauvinist groups. The Union government’s response has been to rely on a smoke and mirrors approach — a de facto assumption of powers related to law and order enforcement without publicly an nouncing the imposition of Article 355 that ena bles it to do so. There has been little followup on confidencebuilding measures between the re presentatives of the ethnic groups after visits by the Union Home Minister Amit Shah and others from his Ministry. The latest visit by a Home Mi nistry team is a reaction to a resolution by some MLAs to take collective action following fresh kill ings and violence in Moreh town. The predominance of militant outfits is alarm ing. Militias such as the Meitei radical Arambai Tenggol have been allowed to act as “defence squads”, brandishing weapons and being al lowed to vitiate the already perilous discourse in the valley even as Kuki insurgents do the same in the hill areas. The arms looted from police sta tions and camps have still to be recovered, which suggests that there is a dangerous militarisation of nonstate groups. The Union government must focus on addressing this key issue on either side of the divide. Meanwhile, Mr. Singh has tried to erroneously link the prevailing conflict and the ethnic polarisation to the refugee situation in Ma nipur with many, predominantly from the Chin communities, fleeing the civil war in Myanmar following attacks by the junta. This has led to the demand for ending the Free Movement Regime (FMR) enabling trade and peopletopeople con tact near the border. While the porous border has also enabled drug trafficking and the move ment of insurgents, a cessation of the FMR would be a case of throwing the baby out with the bath water. O n December 29, 2023, the Republic of South Africa instituted proceedings against Israel in the International Court of Justice (ICJ). In its application, South Africa argued that the manner in which Israel was conducting its military operations in Gaza violated the international Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (the Genocide Convention). The ICJ held a hearing on “provisional measures” on January 1112, 2024, where South Africa and Israel were given three hours each to present their cases. A ruling from the World Court on the issue of provisional measures is awaited. The case has generated immense debate. At the time of writing, Bangladesh and Jordan have issued statements that they will intervene in the case, in support of South Africa’s application. Germany has stated that it will intervene in support of Israel (intervening states can, however, only advance submissions on the question of the interpretation of the Genocide Convention). While a number of other countries, predominantly from Latin America and the MiddleEast, have issued official statements supporting South Africa’s application, others — most notable being the United States, the United Kingdom, and France — have signalled their opposition to it, with France going so far as to threaten noncompliance if the ICJ ends up issuing a finding of genocide against Israel. THE HINDU Thursday, January 25, 2024 9 Opinion Delhi Providing clean water to all I Benefits of the scheme We realised that there cannot be a onesizefitsall arrangement. Every region has different needs. But with the core theme of ‘no one is left behind,’ the Jal Jeevan Mission dealt with different kinds of challenges. Insulated pipes were used in hilly and cold regions. In villages with water quality issues, multi village schemes through bulk water transfer were planned. Community water purification Gajendra Singh Shekhawat is Union Minister of Jal Shakti Mission At the heart of the Jal Jeevan Mission lies a commitment to strengthening the socio-economic fabric of rural communities plants were provided to meet drinking and cooking water needs for the short term. The growth story of the Jal Jeevan Mission is not confined to data; changes can be seen on the ground. Its impact has extended beyond the provision of clean water; it encompasses a broader commitment to the safety, health, and environment of rural communities. Various studies have been conducted on the Jal Jeevan Mission, its implementation, and impact. Nobel Laureate Dr. Michael Kremer’s study states that providing safe water can reduce infant deaths by almost 30%, with the potential to prevent 25% of underfive deaths in India (1,36,000 child deaths annually). A study conducted in the financial year 202324 by the World Health Organization states that 4 lakh diarrhoeal deaths can be averted if tap water is provided in every household. The Jal Jeevan Mission can lead to economic savings of up to $101 billion or ₹8.37 lakh crore. At the heart of the Jal Jeevan Mission lies a commitment to strengthening the socioeconomic fabric of rural communities. It recognises the fact that true development is not just about infrastructure; it is about bringing in a sense of community. The active involvement of women in decisionmaking processes, the empowerment of the youth through skill development, and the creation of local water enterprises are not isolated initiatives but systematic steps strengthening communities. The Nal Jal Mitra initiative, for instance, is a specialised programme which equips villagers with a comprehensive set of skills so that they are able to carry out minor repairs and maintenance of the piped water supply scheme in their village. Over 5.29 lakh village water and sanitation committees/ Pani Samitis have been constituted under the Jal Jeevan Mission and 5.17 lakh village action plans have been developed. About 22.98 lakh women have been trained for testing water samples using field testing kits. A recent study, ‘Assessment of Employment Potential of Jal Jeevan Mission’, states that the Mission’s employment generation potential during the construction phase is on average 59.93 lakh personyears of direct employment and 2.22 crore personyears of indirect employment and 11.18 lakh personyears of additional direct employment annually during the operation and maintenance stage. Transparency and efficiency The Jal Jeevan Mission has a dashboard that gives realtime updates, progress reports, and so on, ensuring transparency and efficiency in water resource management. It also ensures continuous monitoring and surveillance of water quality parameters through advanced technologies. The Department of Drinking Water and Sanitation maintains a proactive Water Quality Management Information System. This helps detect contamination or deterioration in water quality, thereby enabling prompt corrective action and grievance redress. As of now, there are 2,113 labs in India. Water quality testing labs of States/Union Territories are now open to the public for testing water samples at nominal rates. In 202324, more than 46.62 lakh water samples have been tested in laboratories which are digitised in the Water Quality Management Information System. With the Jal Jeevan Mission, we have crossed new milestones and delivered water to millions across India. Our road map for the future is to create a situation where water scarcity is a thing of the past and no rural household suffers the lack of this elixir of life. We are also engaging our people to take care of the water assets that have been created. We are on the right track to achieve our drinking water targets. Resources are in place to implement our objectives. The outlook for the year is positive. The demand for more deputy chief ministers has returned to bother the Congress STATE OF PLAY Nagesh Prabhu nagesh.p@thehindu.co.in T he demand for three more deputy chief mi nisters in Karnataka, which first came to the fore three months ago, has come back to haunt the Congress go vernment. If it persists, it could turn out to be a hea dache for the party ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. The Congress, which was voted to power in May 2023, had two senior leaders, Sidda ramaiah and D.K. Shivakumar, vying for the top job. The issue was resolved after the party high command intervened and made Mr. Siddaramaiah Chief Minister and Mr. Shiva kumar his deputy. Mr. Shiva kumar was given portfolios of his choice and was also al lowed to retain the post of State Congress president. Just as Mr. Shivakumar be gan to emerge as an alterna tive power centre within the ruling party, a few ministers loyal to the Chief Minister pu blicly started demanding three more deputy chief mi nisters. This ask slowly died down three months ago. But when the Bharatiya Janata Par ty (BJP) appointed two deputy chief ministers in the newly formed governments in three Hindi heartland States last month, the demand resur faced in Karnataka. The ministers raising this demand claim that the crea tion of three more posts of de puty chief minister would help “balance castes” ahead of the Lok Sabha polls and help the party win at least 20 seats compared to the one seat it won in 2019. As Mr. Shi vakumar belongs to the Vok kaliga community, the de mand is to appoint deputies belonging to the Scheduled Castes/Scheduled Tribes, mi nority and VeerashaivaLin gayat groups to consolidate the party’s position against the BJPJD(S) alliance. Cooperation Minister K.N. Rajanna, who first made the demand, cited the appoint ments of multiple deputy chief ministers in Chhattis garh, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh by the BJP. Mr. Rajan na’s proposal has been en dorsed by Home Minister G. Parameshwara, who earlier served as the Deputy Chief Mi nister. Some Ministers appa rently held a couple of ‘dinner meetings’ to discuss the issue. The first meeting was held at Mr. Parameshwara’s house in October 2023, and attended by the Chief Minister. The se cond was held in early January 2024 and was attended by So cial Welfare Minister H.C. Ma hadevappa, Food Minister K.H. Muniyappa, and Mr. Pa rameshwara, who are all from SC communities; Mr. Rajanna and Minister of Public Works Department Satish Jarkiholi from the Valmiki/Nayak ST community; and Health Minis ter Dinesh Gundu Rao, a Brah min. Mr. Siddaramaiah did not attend this meeting but most of the ministers who did are considered to be close to him. The demand for more de puty chief ministers has ob viously not gone down well with Mr. Shivakumar and the party high command. Mr. Shi vakumar has maintained that Spin dominance propelled India to invincibility at home Ashwin and Jadeja were aided by a robust pace attack during India’s undefeated years in the last decade DATA POINT Vignesh Radhakrishnan & Srinivasan Ramani T oday, when England starts its fivematch Test tour in India, it will be facing the most successful team at home in the last decade. India’s winloss re cord at home, in the past 11 years, stands apart when compared to the home records of other major Testplaying nations. Notably, In dia’s last Test series defeat at home came against England back in No vemberDecember 2012. The num bers analysed in this piece pertain to all the matches played in the 11 years post that defeat, unless spec ified otherwise. Table 1 shows the number of home Tests played by all teams since December 20, 2012. It also lists the win/loss ratio and the share of wins. With a win/loss ratio of 12, India’s home record is much higher than Australia’s 7. India topped the table in terms of share of wins too. India had not always been such a formidable force at home. In fact, its record in home Tests be fore the 2010s pales in comparison to the much superior figures it has maintained in the last two de cades. Table 2 shows the number of home tests played by India, the win/loss ratio and share of wins, decadewise. In both these mea sures, India’s record in the last two decades stands tall compared to its own record before the 2010s. The key to India’s dominating Test performances at home has been its two premier spinners. The recordbreaking number of wick ets taken by spin duo Ravichan dran Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja in the past decade formed the be drock of India’s impregnable for tress on home turf. Ashwin, in par ticular, has secured the majority of India’s wickets in the period. If sorted on the basis of a bowler’s share in total wickets taken by the team in the past 11 years, Ashwin CM YK ranks first on the chart. Incredibly, Jadeja is not far behind on the list which features the top five bow lers. Table 3 shows the list of bow lers sorted based on wickets taken as a share of their team’s total Test wickets in home matches, since December 20, 2012. By securing 33.3% of all of India’s Test wickets at home in the period, Ashwin ranks first. Jadeja is ranked fourth on the list (22.5% of all wickets). In fact, though India has a rich legacy of spin bowling, with star studded spinners adorning the lineups, it was in the 2020s that the spinners’ share of India’s total wickets at home reached a new peak. This shows that not only were Ashwin and Jadeja better spinners than their contemporar ies, but their record is also supe rior compared to India’s spinners from earlier periods. Table 4 shows the share of In dia’s wickets secured by Indian spinners at home, decadewise. In the 2020s, 79.2% of all wickets claimed by Indians were taken by spinners. The previous high of 80.2% was way back in the 1950s. While it is true that the two spinners have dominated the pro ceedings back home, India has been building a worldbeating pace attack too in the past decade. The fastbowling unit’s accom plishments in pacefriendly over seas conditions have led to historic triumphs. Yet, the fact that such a fastbowling unit captured rela tively fewer wickets back home on ly underscores the spin twins’ ex ceptional performance. In all the Tests played in India, in the past 11 years, the Indian pace attack has the best average and strike rate compared to the speed sters of all the visiting teams. Ta ble 5A shows the bowling average and strike rate of various teams’ pace attacks in India since Decem ber 20, 2012. This is also true if only the nine matches played against England in the period were considered, as shown in Table 5B. only the high command can take decisions on such mat ters. “Everyone has to work together to win parliamentary elections, that’s it,” he said. When All India Congress Committee (AICC) General Se cretary incharge of Karnata ka, Randeep Singh Surjewala, visited Bengaluru recently, the ministers placed their de mand before him. Both Mr. Surjewala and AICC chief Mal likarjun Kharge have brushed aside the proposal. “There is no proposal to create addi tional deputy chief ministers before the AICC,” Mr. Kharge said and maintained that rais ing such demands ahead of the general elections was in appropriate. The AICC chief argued that the government’s focus should be on providing good administration and ad dressing people’s problems. Mr. Surjewala told the minis ters to focus on effective deliv ery of the five guarantees be ing implemented by the government, to garner votes. But the ministers do not seem to have entirely given up on their demand. Though the deputy chief minister’s post has no men tion in the Constitution, it is a soughtafter post these days as the person holding the post is seen as the secondincom mand and therefore a natural successor. Karnataka has had more than one deputy chief minister under both Congress led and BJPled governments. Mr. Siddaramaiah too served as the Deputy Chief Minister twice in the past. For now, the Congress high command seems to be in no mood to concede the de mand; doing so would under mine the importance of the party’s “troubleshooter”, Mr. Shivakumar. But handling the situation before the elections is going to be a challenge for the party. F RO M T H E A RC HI V E S FIFTY YEARS AGO JANUARY 25, 1974 LIC wage dispute settled: 16-day lock-out lifted New Delhi, Jan. 24: The 16day long lockout in the six divisional offices of the Life Insurance Corporation of India will be lifted from tomorrow, following an agreement on the issues under dispute between the management and the five unions, reached here late tonight. Suspension orders served on employees except in cases of gross indiscipline, are being withdrawn. These cases will be reviewed separately, it was announced. Representatives of one of the five unions, the All India National Life Insurance Employees Federation, did not sign the agreement here tonight. The representatives of the union affiliated to the INTUC, however, said they were willing to sign the agreement but would like to consult their own negotiating committee before doing so. The other unions whose representatives have signed the agreements are: The All India Insurance Employees Association, the All India LIC Employees Federation, the All India Life Insurance Employees’ Association and the National Organisation of Insurance Workers. At the conclusion of the signing of the agreement, the Chairman, Mr. Puri, said that the settlement involved an outlay of Rs. 6 crores in addition to the existing wage bill. It would secure substantial gains for the employees in the matter of scales of pay, house rent allowance and city compensatory allowance. All the employees would also get handsome bonus. He said that if the employees extended their fullest cooperation as they had solemnly assured to do, it would be possible to consider their demands for improvement in provident fund contributions, leave travel concessions and medical benefits. A HUNDRED YEARS AGO JANUARY 25, 1924 Britain and Afghanistan London, Jan. 24: The Afghan Legation here has issued a statement pointing out that Ajab is in strict custody of Afghanistan and will be deported. Other members of his gang are outside Afghanistan, among independent tribes of Mohmand. The statement adds that the British Government has hitherto taken the steps in connection with the arms of the Afghan Government which are still held up in Bombay. M ND-NDE e2149499 e2149499 n the hilly village of Kyarkuli Bhatta in Uttarakhand, there is no mass migration anymore. The tribal hamlet of Kusumdih in Jharkhand has seen a reduction in humananimal conflicts. And in Chandpur village in Maharashtra, weddings are being celebrated with pomp and show again. This is because there is tap water in all these regions, provided by the Jal Jeevan Mission. Launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2019, the Jal Jeevan Mission has already provided tap water to 73% of rural households. This means that more than 14 crore rural households have tap connections compared to only 3.23 crore in August 2019. Through the Mission, guided by the principle of ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Vishwas aur Sabka Prayas’, India is rapidly advancing towards the realisation of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 6 (clean water and sanitation for all). We embarked on this journey with the objective of providing piped water in adequate quantities and of prescribed quality on a regular and longterm basis to every rural household in India. We wanted to ensure that no one had to face water scarcity and its consequences on health, hygiene, and wellbeing. At the national level, we focused on strengthening infrastructure, which was a big challenge because of the diverse terrains and geographical differences in India. We brought together communities, development partners, and NGOs. How many deputies are too many? Delhi www.thehindu.com Thursday, January 25, 2024 ● ● 10 Text&Context 0 NEWS IN NUMBERS Decrease in India’s coffee exports in 2023 due to fall in shipment Penalty imposed on Air India by DGCA for safety violations Govt. approves fund for scheme on coal gasification projects Delhi’s 24hour average Air Quality Index (AQI) The new subscriptions for Netflix in the fourth quarter of 2023 5.4 1.1 8,500 400 13 in percentage. Coffee shipments from India declined to 3.77 lakh tonne in 2023 due to a fall in the shipment of Robusta coffee, according to the Coffee Board of India. PTI in ₹ crore. The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) imposed a penalty as it got a complaint alleging that Air India operated Boeing 777 planes without having the required emergency oxygen supply. PTI Follow us in ₹ crore. The adoption of gasification technology in India is expected to reduce the country’s reliance on imports of natural gas, methanol, and other products. PTI facebook.com/thehindu AQI levels crossed the 400 mark (stage 3 “severe”) on Wednesday, a level requiring authorities to invoke stricter curbs through the Graded Response Action Plan. PTI twitter.com/the_hindu in million. Netflix registered its third consecutive quarter of accelerating subscriber growth in the final three months of 2023, closing out a comeback year. AP COMPILED BY THE HINDU DATA TEAM instagram.com/the_hindu Why did Home Minister Amit Shah promise to fence the 1,643 km IndiaMyanmar border? Are there historical ties between people on either side of the border? Why was the FMR initially introduced? Why is the Manipur government opposed to the FMR? the community as “illegal immigrants” and “narcoterrorists” to justify their “ethnic cleansing”. EXPLAINER Rahul Karmakar 쑽 What is the scale of migration? The civil war in Myanmar saw a drastic jump in the number of people seeking refuge in India. In September 2022, authorities in Manipur pushed back 4,300 of some 5,500 Myanmar nationals from the Moreh area along the border after recording their biometrics. A committee set up by the State government put the number of such migrants in 2023 at 2,187. The civil war in the neighbouring country also forced some 40,000 people into Mizoram, who, unlike Manipur, made them feel at home primarily due to their ethnic affiliation. The Mizoram government has been seeking funds from the Centre to look after the displaced people who it wants to be sent back only after the situation in their country normalises. The story so far: t a passing out parade of the Assam police commandos in Guwahati on January 20, Home Minister Amit Shah said the 1,643 km IndiaMyanmar border would soon be fenced. He also said the Free Movement Regime (FMR) agreement with Myanmar would be reconsidered to stop border residents from moving into each other’s country without any paperwork. A What is the FMR? Much of India’s presentday northeast was temporarily under Burmese occupation until the British pushed them out in the 1800s. The victors and the vanquished signed the Treaty of Yandaboo in 1826, leading to the current alignment of the boundary between India and Burma, later renamed Myanmar. The border divided people of the same ethnicity and culture — specifically the Nagas of Nagaland and Manipur and the KukiChinMizo communities of Manipur and Mizoram — without their consent. In some stretches, the border split a village or a house between the two countries. Wary of increasing Chinese influence in Myanmar, New Delhi began working on improving diplomatic ties with the Myanmar government a decade ago. After almost a year’s delay, the FMR came about in 2018 as part of the Narendra Modi government’s Act East policy. The Rohingya refugee crisis that began in August 2017 caused the delay. The FMR allows people living on either side of the border to travel up to 16 km inside each other’s country without a visa. A border resident needs to have a border pass, valid for a year, to stay in the other country for about two weeks per visit. The FMR also envisaged the promotion of localised border trade through customs stations and designated markets apart from helping the people of Myanmar Crossing lines: A border pillar on the IndoMyanmar international border in Moreh, Manipur. FILE PHOTO access better education and healthcare facilities on the Indian side of the border. Why is the FMR being reconsidered? Apart from a 10 km stretch in Manipur, the IndiaMyanmar border through hills and jungles is unfenced. The security forces have for decades grappled with members of extremist groups carrying out hitandrun operations from their clandestine bases in the Chin and Sagaing regions of Myanmar. The ease of crossborder movement, even before the FMR was in place, was often flagged for inward trafficking of drugs and outward trafficking of wildlife body parts. The trigger for the rethink on the FMR was the conflict that broke out between the majority Meitei and the tribal KukiZo communities in Manipur on May 3, 2023. Over the past decade, the Manipur government has been expressing concern over the “influx” of Myanmar nationals, a euphemism for KukiChins, calling for an Assamlike National Register of Citizens to weed out the “illegal immigrants”. The theory gained currency after the conflict, which coincided with a few hundred Myanmar nationals taking refuge in Manipur to escape a civil war back home. In September 2023, Manipur Chief Minister Nongthombam Biren Singh blamed the ethnic violence on the free movement of Myanmar nationals into India and urged the Ministry of Home Affairs to end the FMR, which had been suspended on April 1, 2020, during the COVID19 lockdown. The suspension was extended after the military coup in Myanmar in February 2021. KukiZo organisations, on the other hand, have accused the Chief Minister of branding An overview of the fourth national elections of Bhutan The story so far: n January 10, the Election Commission of Bhutan (ECB) declared the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the ruling party with 30 out of 47 seats in the fourth national assembly elections. The Bhutan Tendrel Party (BTP) became the opposition party with 17 seats. O twotier system consisting of a primary round and then general elections. All registered parties contest in the primary round of elections and the top two voted parties contest the general elections to decide the ruling party and the opposition party. While in the primary round of elections, all five registered parties of Bhutan contested, PDP and BTP secured the most votes of 42.53% and 19.58 % respectively. What is electoral system of Bhutan? In 2008, Bhutan converted from an absolute monarchy to a constitutional monarchy with a parliamentary government. The King of Bhutan is the head of the state whereas the Prime Minister is the head of the government. Since 2008, Bhutan has conducted four elections. The Parliament of Bhutan consists of the King of Bhutan, the National Council (upper house), and the National Assembly (lower house). The elections to the National Assembly are a What were campaigns of the parties? The PDP, a liberal party, emerged as the winner with a landslide victory. The party’s campaign revolved around economic recovery, developing infrastructure, and boosting the private sector. More actionoriented goals were a prominent factor in winning the vote. The BTP, which is a new entrant in the electoral race, became the opposition party in its first term. Its campaigns focused on “a vibrant and prosperous Bhutan” through a robust private sector, CM YK Why are Mizoram and Nagaland opposed to ending the FMR? Mizoram Chief Minister Lalduhoma said his government does not have the authority to stop the Centre from fencing the IndiaMyanmar border for perceived security threat and scrapping the FMR, but said he was opposed to the move. According to him, the border was imposed by the British to divide the people belonging to the Zo ethnic stock. “We Mizos share ethnic ties with the Chin people across the border. We have the right to live together,” he said. The Nagaland government, in which the BJP is a stakeholder, has not reacted but the influential Naga Students’ Federation condemned the Centre’s move. It said the decision to fence the border and end the FMR was “regressive”, which would exacerbate conflicts in the region. “It is crucial for India to acknowledge the historical truth that these territories (between the Chindwin River in Myanmar and the Saramati mountain in Nagaland) belong to the Nagas,” the federation said in a statement. effective governance, strengthening local governance, and establishing the Bhutan Idea and Innovation Bank. reserves for at least 12 months of imports. Second, there were demographic challenges. Mass migration has been sharply increasing leading to a shortage of manpower. The exodus of highskilled people to other countries for better educational and job opportunities has affected the delivery of public services domestically. Additionally, fertility rates have been declining. The elections also witnessed a decline in voter turnout. In the 2018 elections, the turnout for the primary round and general elections stood at 66.36% and 71.46% as compared to 63% and 65.6% in 202324. What were the key issues? The country’s Gross National Happiness (GNH) was the central theme of all elections so far. However, the economy was the major driving force of the fourth round of elections. The average economic growth in the past five years stood at 1.6%. According to the National Statistics Bureau (NSB), the youth unemployment rate in 2022 was 28.6%. The private sector has been stagnant since the pandemic, and the tourism sector has also witnessed a downfall. According to the Ministry of Finance, the total debt of Bhutan was 124.5% of its GDP as of September 2022. The foreign reserves of Bhutan have also been declining and are close to going below the constitutional limit. In 2023, the reserves declined to $689 million, sufficient only for 14 months of essential imports. The constitution mandates What next for Bhutan? With a caretaker government in place and a few challenges, the fourth round of elections conducted in Bhutan exhibited a smooth transition to democracy. PDP being one of the oldest parties has been trusted again for stabilising the economy for a better and prosperous Bhutan. In the 2013 elections, the PDP won and took over a weak economy that grappled with soaring inflation, frozen credit, import bans, and minimal business activity. The party was successful in increasing GDP and foreign reserves. With the slogan “For a Better Druk Yul [For a better Bhutan]” PDP, President Tshering Tobgay is set to be the Prime Minister of Bhutan for the second time. Akriti Sharma is a doctoral scholar at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, IISc Campus Bengaluru. How does the electoral and political system work in Bhutan? What were the party campaigns about? What were the key issues? Akriti Sharma THE GIST Home Minister Amit Shah said the Free Movement Regime (FMR) agreement with Myanmar would be reconsidered to stop border residents from moving into each other’s country without any paperwork. 쑽 In September 2023, Manipur Chief Minister Nongthombam Biren Singh blamed the ethnic violence on the free movement of Myanmar nationals into India and urged the Ministry of Home Affairs to end the FMR. 쑽 The border divides people of the same ethnicity and culture — specifically the Nagas of Nagaland and Manipur and the KukiChinMizo communities of Manipur and Mizoram — without their consent. THE GIST 쑽 On January 10, the Election Commission of Bhutan (ECB) declared the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the ruling party with 30 out of 47 seats in the fourth national assembly elections. 쑽 The elections to the National Assembly of Bhutan are a twotier system consisting of a primary round and then general elections. 쑽 The PDP, a liberal party, emerged as the winner with a landslide victory. The party’s campaign revolved around economic recovery, developing infrastructure, and boosting the private sector. M ND-NDE e2149499 e2149499 Reconsidering the free movement regime THE HINDU Thursday, January 25, 2024 11 Text&Context Delhi BIBLIOGRAPHY GETTY IMAGES FROM THE ARCHIVES Know your English From the trenches: India, Pakistan relations through the prism of diplomacy Former diplomats trace the green shoots that gave rise to hopes for peace between the neighbours and explain the challenges and hurdles to managing a complex relationship with a history of hostility; they also rue missed opportunities that Pakistani and Indian leaders have failed to seize Suhasini Haidar “T he only ‘normal’ ones, are those you don’t know very well,” famed Austrian psychologist Alfred Adler said about people, but it’s a thought that holds true for IndiaPakistan relations as well. The two countries, that know one another only too well, were separated in a very painful birth, and while they have tried to build “normal” relations with each other for decades since, every attempt has failed. Since 2014, a chain of events have seen them give up even the semblance of bilateral discourse: they have ended all direct trade, travel by rail, bus and air, denied visas to each other’s artists, musicians, actors and writers, stopping all but religious pilgrimage exchanges, as well as shunned the composite bilateral dialogue between officials. Since 2019, they have dispensed with High Commissioners and all political contact altogether. At a time when both sides are in danger of losing all institutional memory of engaging with each other, the last High Commissioner to Pakistan Ajay Bisaria’s historical studycummemoir, Anger Management: The Troubled Diplomatic Relationship between India and Pakistan (Aleph), steps into the breach. Expulsion and after Mr. Bisaria, who was posted to Islamabad in 2017, and expelled after the Modi government’s Article 370 move in August 2019 which angered the Imran Khan government in Pakistan, writes in the prologue that the attempt was to tell the story of India–Pakistan diplomacy “from the point of view of its practitioners, those who exited early and those who stayed long in the trenches”. He divides the history of the relationship into decades rather than events, with Section 1 focusing on the decade from 19471957 and so on until Section 8, focusing more closely on his own tenure and what has followed, from 20172023. It is in this last section as well as a previous chapter dealing with 19972007, when Ajay Bisaria was Private Secretary to Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee (19992004), which includes the 1999 Air India hijacking, where the book really differs from others who have written about their tenures in Pakistan such as High Commissioner from 20132015, T.C.A. Raghavan’s The People Next Door (HarperCollins) and H.C. Sharat Sabharwal’s India’s Pakistan Conundrum: Managing a Complex Relationship (Routledge). Both predecessors have written fine books that are powerful expositions on understanding Pakistan, but they focused on theory, missing such a detailed account of their own tenures. It is the reader’s good fortune that another former High Commissioner from the 1990s, Satinder Lambah, who was the special envoy for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and ran the backchannel talks with Pakistan for nearly a decade, also wrote his memoirs in quite the same personalised vein as Mr. Bisaria, in a book published only after he passed away in 2021, In Pursuit of Peace: IndiaPakistan Relations under Six Prime Ministers (Penguin). In his book Bisaria, who will be at The Hindu Lit Fest 2024 in Chennai this weekend to talk about his book, reveals that when the NDA lost the elections in 2004, he stayed on to help with continuity and organised Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s calls with foreign leaders including Pakistan President General Musharraf. It was in that phone call that Dr. Singh first recited the couplet that so well describes the missed opportunities that Pakistani and Indian leaders have failed to seize. ‘Kuch aise bhi manzar hain tareek ki nazron mein/lamhe ne khata ki, sadiyon ne saza payee (History records those points where mistakes of a few moments meant a punishment for ages). The Pulwama attack Mr. Bisaria’s description of the period from FebruaryAugust 2019, from the Pulwama attack, India’s response airstrikes at Balakot and the Pakistani counterresponse, the brief détente between the two countries after the release of Captain Abhinandan Varthaman, describes the preamble to total disconnect between the two countries after the government reorganised Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh and modified Article 370. His playbyplay of all that happened, including what each of the officials and leaders on both sides said at the time, as well as the involvement of the U.S., U.K., UAE, Saudi Arabia, documents thirdparty mediation in an IndiaPakistan crisis. Mr. Bisaria documents how ties gradually plummeted from the moment before he left for the Pakistan assignment, when Prime Minister Modi told him to take a “message of peace” and to expect peace in return, to the moment during the Balakot crisis, when Mr. Modi refused to take a call from Mr. Khan, saying later that he would have unleashed a “Qatl ki raat” on Pakistan if the captain captured in Pakistani territory had not been returned home safely. He likens Mr. Modi’s plight to that of Mr. Vajpayee and Dr. Singh, when despite several outreaches and even a visit to Lahore, terror attacks from Pakistan put paid to all plans for “peace”. Mr. Bisaria describes Pakistani action, under pressure from the West, India and the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) strictures to crack down on terrorism, as well as the tussle between Army Chief General Qamar Bajwa and PM Khan. In a section titled the “Bajwa CT (CounterTerror) Doctrine”, Mr. Bisaria recounts a series of meetings behind the scenes that confirm Indian National Security and MEA officials led by the Indian High Commission were talking directly to the Pakistani military between March and July 2019. Mr. Bisaria himself engaged with one of Prime Minister Imran Khan’s closest aides Naeem ul Haq (who passed away subsequently). However, the Article 370 move put paid to whatever green shoots there may have been in the Pakistani effort to focus on its domestic issues rather than fomenting trouble for India. “With Pakistan’s counterterror campaign paused,” Mr. Bisaria recounts, JaisheMohammad and LashkareTaiba were “back in business” postAugust. With his expulsion, talks, if any, have been left to those carried out by the channel between Sardar Patel Bhawan (NSC HQ in Delhi) and Rawalpindi. Reflections on ties Despite his tense tenure, Mr. Bisaria, who retired after a stint as India’s High Commissioner to Canada (20192022), is reflective about the friendships he made in Pakistan. Very few Indian diplomats who have served in Pakistan actually “preserve their neutrality”, he writes. “You could become a peacenik, you could become a hawk, but you’re seldom left in the middle”. Quoting a former Pakistani Foreign Secretary who spoke of the IndiaPakistan “TrackII” circuit of experts on both sides that meet to discuss the relationship, he adds, “Several former hawks, freed of their talking points, became doves fluttering for peace.” No matter how realistic they seem, diplomats that don’t believe in engagement simply talk themselves out of their own jobs…and it is those diplomats who believe that the future can be different from India and Pakistan’s failureridden past that persevere. In the words from a poem PM Vajpayee composed and read out during the Lahore Bus trip, that Mr. Bisaria recounts with a flourish — “Jo hum par guzri bacchon ke sang na hone dengein, jang na hone dengein (We won’t allow our children to go through what we have, We won’t allow war).” Please send in your answers to dailyquiz@thehindu.co.in THE DAILY QUIZ “Ms. B. Acharya, Bhubaneswar, wants to know the meaning of the sentence, ‘He made a hole in the water last month’.” ‘To make a hole in the water’ means ‘to commit suicide by drowning’. ‘Hole’ here means ‘a grave’, this idiom is rarely used these days. ‘Why I don’t go and make a hole in the water, I don’t know’. (Charles Dickens, Bleak House).” “Mr. V. Sivaramakrishna Rao, Gudur, refers to the sentence ‘Kanyakumari is a beauty spot’ in Lesson 13 of NCERT English Reader for Class VII and says that ‘beauty spot’ is wrongly used, as a beauty spot refers to a mole (either natural or purposefully made) on the face in order to increase the appearance of the face by contrast.” “It is not wrongly used. It also means ‘a beautiful locality’.” “Mr. K. Balasubramaniyam, St. Joseph’s College, Tiruchi, wants to know the meaning of ‘on all fours’.” “ ‘To go on all fours’ means ‘to crawl about like an animal or an infant’. He went on all fours to amuse his grandchildren. ‘It does not go on all fours’ means that it is not correct in every detail. Macaulay said that ‘no simile can go on all fours’. That is, there can’t be a onetocorrespondence between two things compared.” “Ms. L. Tickoo, Chandigarh, wants to know the meaning of ‘dentiloquy’.” “ ‘Dentiloquy’ is ‘the practice of talking through the teeth’. Some talk through their teeth. Most of us do it when we are angry. Some talk through their hat! She is an expert in dentiloquy.” “Mrs. Akkiraju Savithramma, Dharmavaram, wants to know whether it is correct to use the word ‘convent’ to refer to a particular kind of school.” “ A convent is ‘a building in which a community of nuns lives’. A convent school is a school run by nuns. In India, a lot of people use the word ‘convent’ to mean a convent school. I don’t know whether it is exaltation of meaning or degeneration of meaning!” “Ms. K. Swarnalatha, Calcutta, wants to know whether the following sentence is correct: ‘He is angry on her’.” “ No. It should be ‘He is angry with her’. ‘Angry’ is followed by with or at or about. You are angry with a person. I am not angry with you. She was angry with him. Don’t be angry with me. I was angry with myself for doing it. At is used of things or actions. I was angry at his behaviour. I was angry at the play. About is used of actions or things. I am angry about her behaviour. I am angry about the whole thing.” Published in The Hindu on November 6, 1990. On this day, 110 years ago, the world had its first transcontinental telephone call. A quiz on the invention which changed the way we communicate Vasudevan Mukunth by ____ _____ and Wilhelm Weber. Fill in the blanks. X X QUESTION 1 Alexander Graham Bell is credited with placing this call from New York city. Who was on the other end of the line in San Francisco? QUESTION 4 On July 1, 1875, Bell decided to test one of the first mature models of his design of the telephone, asking his assistant to use a diaphragm made of __________’s ____. This material, Bell reasoned, could reproduce sounds of the human voice that the human ear is familiar with. Fill in the blank with the name of the material. X QUESTION 2 While the formal date of the first transcontinental telephone call is marked January 25, 1914, the telephone line itself had been laid by June 17, 1914, and a month later, ________ ____, the president of AT&T, checked if the line was okay by making a test call. Fill in the blanks. X QUESTION 3 An important precursor to Bell’s design of the telephone was the world’s first electromagnetic telegraph, developed CM YK X QUESTION 5 Tivadar Puskas was an engineer working with Thomas Alva Edison who, after he found out that Bell had received a patent for a design of the telephone, was among the first to propose the idea of a _________ — a facility that would route calls between calls and receives in a geographical area. Fill in the blank. X Visual question: Name this Italian inventor who may have invented the electromagnetic telephone before Mr. Bell did. This inventor called his device ‘telettrofono’, and couldn’t afford to renew the patent he’d received for it after 1874. Questions and Answers to the previous day’s daily quiz: 1. The Adams prize is awarded by this institution. Ans: Cambridge University 2. Bhabha was described as ‘the modern equivalent of Leonardo da Vinci’ by this man. Ans: C.V. Raman 3. The other two members of India’s first AEC. Ans: S. S. Bhatnagar and K. S. Krishnan 4. Dr. Bhabha came up with this strategy for India’s nuclear power programme which focuses on extracting this mineral. Ans: India’s threestage nuclear power programme; Thorium 5. Dr. Bhabha died in this incident. Ans: He died in an Air India plane crash near Mont Blanc 6. Bhabha claimed that India could make a nuclear bomb in these many months. Ans: 18 months 7. This event delayed Dr. Bhabha’s return to England. Ans: World War II Visual: Where is this image from? Ans: International Conference on the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy in Geneva, Switzerland, August 20, 1955 Early Birds: K.N. Viswanathan| Jagrati Shukla| Akshansh Thakur| Aaryaman Thakur| Prashant Nain For feedback and suggestions for Text & Context, please write to letters@thehindu.co.in with the subject ‘Text & Context’ M ND-NDE e2149499 e2149499 K. Subramanian 6 . bl . think DELHI businessline. THURSDAY JANUARY 25 2024 Diesel demand in the slow lane THURSDAY JANUARY 25, 2024 Curbing mule accounts IPO malpractices should be penalised s the equity market scaled record highs last year, the primary market segment also witnessed heightened interest. But it is widely believed that many investors who subscribe to initial public offers do so with the intention to benefit from the shortterm gain from the spurt in stock prices, immediately after listing. A POCKET RAVIKANTH But the consumers of diesel are concentrated in the transportation, agriculture and industrial sectors. Of the three, there has been a marked reduction in diesel consumption in the transportation sector in recent years. This sector has the largest share of diesel offtake with trucks, heavy and light commercial vehicles and buses consuming around 37 per cent of the diesel sold. The transportation segment has benefited from the massive improvement in road infrastructure and through the construction of additional State and national highways over the last decade. Better roads have made movement much faster, thus reducing diesel used. Two, the introduction of GST since 2017 has meant end of octroi which resulted in long waits at checkposts. According to government data, there is 33 per cent improvement in transport time after GST implementation. Commercial passenger vehicles which ply on highways too would have benefited likewise; this segment accounts for 9 per cent of total diesel consumption. Increased automation and improvement in manufacturing process would have led to reduction in industrial diesel consumption which accounts for 17 per cent share. The increase in the number of electric vehicles on the road is unlikely to have made much of a difference to petrol and diesel consumption since their share in overall automobiles on the road is quite low. But as the number of EVs, especially for mass transport, increases they will also begin contributing to bringing down diesel consumption in the country. POINT BLANK. LOKESHWARRI SK PARVATHI BENU W ith green energy, sustainable growth, climate change, etc., taking centrestage, the seemingly insatiable demand for fossil fuel among Indians has been causing considerable problems to policymakers. But not all is gloom and doom. A businessline analysis of the trends in consumption of petroleum products between 201011 to 202223 shows that Indians are gradually reducing their offtake of petroleum products including diesel, petrol, LPG, naphtha, and pet coke. The compounded annual growth rate in petroleum products was 3.9 per cent in this period, far lower than the rate at which the economy grew. Within the petroleum products basket, demand for petrol continues to be quite brisk as the number of passenger vehicles on the roads keeps moving higher. Petrol consumption grew at an average rate of 7.8 per cent a year during 201011 to 202223. But petrol accounts for only 15.1 per cent of the total consumption of petroleum products. It is heartening to note that diesel, which has 38 per cent share, is growing at a far slower 3.03 per cent. Policymakers need to heed this slowdown and do all they can to encourage this. THE SLOWDOWN Lot of commentary is focused on the continued growth in consumption of petroleum products, but the annual growth has been quite weak, under 6 per cent in most years, as the adjacent table shows. The growth in petroleum products consumption of 3.9 per cent between FY11 and FY23 is below the average GDP growth rate in this period, of 5.9 per cent. This roughly implies that decent economic growth can now be achieved with lower consumption of petroleum products. An analysis of the consumption in As the number of EVs, especially for mass transport, increases they will also begin contributing to bringing down diesel consumption in the country. two of the major categories of petroleum products — diesel and petrol — shows that the demand for petrol was quite strong with doubledigit growth in many years since 201011. The annual growth in petrol consumption in the period between FY03 and FY10 was also similarly elevated at 7.8 per cent. But the growth in diesel consumption has been decelerating. While the annual average growth in diesel consumption was 6.3 per cent between FY03 and FY10, the growth rate fell to 3.03 per cent in the period between FY11 and FY23. The continued buoyancy in consumption of petrol since 201011 is not surprising. According to a survey done by Nielsen for PPAC, two and threewheelers consumed 64 per cent of the total petrol sold in India. Passenger cars and utility vehicles such as SUVs accounted for most of the remaining share. As urban consumption stayed strong over the past decade, led by increasing pay packets in the services sector, the number of passenger vehicles on the road have also been going up. The infrastructure bottlenecks in the cities and the long hours spent by vehicles in heavy traffic have been pushing up petrol consumption further. WHAT DOES IT MEAN? Lesser operating cost for the transportation sector, with reduction in diesel consumption, will have a cascading effect on all the prices in the economy, aiding in checking inflation. Companies will gain from lower fuel cost in transporting raw materials and finished products. They will also benefit from lower cost on raw materials. As far as policymaking goes, these numbers should encourage greater thrust towards incentivising a shift to electric vehicles, especially by the transportation sector. There should be more subsidies, incentive for scrapping older vehicles, interest subvention on loans for purchasing EVs, and so on. Setting up charging stations should be done on a war footing as that is key for facilitating the shift. More effective implementation of the PM KUSUM project and continued focus on improving road infrastructure will also help. Interim Budget must look to ease the tax regime Extending the sunset clause for concessional tax rate to manufacturing and streamlining capital gains tax will help Chandrajit Banerjee W hile major announcements cannot be expected in an Interim Budget, the government may consider focusing on tax certainty for businesses. This would impart confidence to businesses planning new investments for leveraging the current growth momentum. A significant incentive provided for the manufacturing sector as part of the Aatmanirbhar Bharat mission was the concessional tax rate of 15 per cent, subject to certain conditions. Given the unsettled conditions since this announcement, it is suggested that the sunset period be extended for at least another year to March 2025. Such a step would encourage manufacturing companies take up capacity creation. To address the high level of litigation, the government may announce steps to reduce the pendency of disputed cases. For further relief to taxpayers from persistent delays in refunds, TDS credit, etc., the government may examine the interface with the Central Processing Centre to make it more efficient and responsive. DISPARITY IN TDS RATES The government may consider reducing the disparity in TDS rates by having only two or three categories of payments and a small “negative list” of payments which will not be liable to TDS. This will ease the compliance burden on the taxpayers. At present, there is no consistency in capital gains tax rates or holding periods for different types of instruments falling within the same asset class. It is suggested that the government bring out a framework for greater simplicity, consistency and rationalisation of the capital gains tax regime. Consequent to the reduction of corporate tax rates, the differential between personal and corporate tax has widened. The highest marginal rate for individuals has now gone up to 42.74 per cent (highest slab) against the normal corporate tax rate of 25.17 per cent. Currently, under the new tax regime, TAX BREAKS. Will assist businesses incomes above ₹15 lakh are being covered under the highest tax slab. To boost private consumption expenditure, it is suggested that this threshold be raised to at least ₹20 lakh. This will provide relief to middleclass taxpayers and increase their disposable incomes. A key part of the OECD/G20 Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) project was aimed at addressing the challenges arising from the existing international tax system which is no longer fit for the globalised and digitalised economy. It is suggested to chalk out a clear roadmap on the changes required in the domestic tax legislation on applicability of the Global AntiBase Erosion (GloBE) rules including date of applicability, safe harbour, exclusions, computation mechanism, etc. On the customs front, the Budget proposals could focus on improving the quality of trade facilitation environment which would foster domestic manufacturing. Attention is needed towards making robust provisions for resolution of taxpayers’ grievances in a timebound manner, where automated escalation mechanism is introduced. The sunset clause fixed for certain exemptions needs to be extended for the products not being manufactured or available in the country, so as to ensure availability at lower prices for the manufacturers to render them globally competitive. The export incentive under the RoDTEP scheme can be enhanced commensurate to the actual taxes embedded in export products. The writer is Director General, CII LETTERS TO EDITOR Send your letters by email to bleditor@thehindu.co.in or by post to ‘Letters to the Editor’, The Hindu Business Line, Kasturi Buildings, 859860, Anna Salai, Chennai 600002. Credit driven growth Apropos the editorial ‘Default concerns’ (January 24), the spike in personal and consumer loans provided by domestic lenders, post the pandemic, shows that Indians are becoming more credit hungry and are willing to acquire assets on credit. This augurs well for the economy as a whole from the perspective of consumerism and asset creation. For lenders too, this is a welcome development as they get better returns on these loans compared to their secured counterparts like home loans. However, to curb unchecked growth of unsecured loans, with its potential for a spike in NPA levels, the RBI has increased the risk weightage for these loans from 100 to 125 per cent from November 2023 onwards. Additionally, the apex bank needs to closely monitor the unsecured lending of all lenders, including that of NBFCs. V Jayaraman Chennai Pricing of loans With the change in living style and savings pattern of the younger generation, lenders are now in a fix in firming up their assets portfolio backed by concrete assets for the money lent. Lending money under the personal loan category would push the lender’s asset book but is more risky that attracts cent per cent provisioning, which would impact the bottomline. Debt service coverage ratio, debttoincome ratio and other ratios such as liquidity and solvency are more suited for corporate and business lending. Resorting to differential pricing of loans based on an individual’s savings behaviour and constant income flow is a good practice for identifying the right borrowers. RV Baskaran books. So where are the people spending money? Possibly the stock market, which is witnessing a sustained bull run. Anthony Henriques Chennai This refers to ‘Direct taxtoGDP ratio at a high, cost of collection down’ (January 24). It is heartening to note that direct tax collections (income tax and corporate tax) are rising and the cost of collections has come down too. This means the resource position of the government is comfortable. It can reallocate it and maximise the welfare of the people. But, at the same time, it should be remembered that payment of direct taxes can lessen private consumption Economic growth The reported 7 per cent GDP growth does not seem to be reflected in the quarterly results of the listed companies so far. One indicator of the economy doing well is the increase in FMCG sales. When there is not much topline growth in companies which provide items of daily use like soap, shampoo and edible oils, the message is clear. Banks too fail to show growth in their Mumbai Chennai Tax collections Published by Nirmala Lakshman and Printed by S. Ramanujam at HT Media Ltd. Plot No. 8, Udyog Vihar, Greater Noida Distt. Gautam Budh Nagar, U.P. 201306, on behalf of THG PUBLISHING PVT LTD., Chennai600002. Editor: Raghuvir Srinivasan (Editor responsible for selection of news under the PRB Act). CM YK expenditure to that extent, leading to a fall in private investment, employment, income and output. The government should chip in to fill the gap. S Ramakrishnasayee IBC is delivering Apropos ‘IBCresolved firms are faring well’ (January 24). The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code has hastened the resolution process of distressed companies with improved mechanism to resurrect them into going concerns. Increased sales, hiring and profitability in the postresolution period of the distressed companies are evidence of the IBC’s efficacy. NR Nagarajan Sivakasi, TN ISSN 0971 7528 . . . . . . . . NDNDE 1869753 1869753 This suspicion was confirmed by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) chief Madhabi Puri Buch recently when she stated that 43 per cent of retail investors and 68 per cent of high networth individuals who receive allotment in an initial public offer, sell the stock within a week of listing. Of greater concern was the SEBI chief’s statement that some companies have been found using ‘mule’ accounts to apply to their own IPOs, in order to show a large oversubscription. The regulator should make haste in completing its investigation into the three companies which are suspected to have inflated their subscription numbers with fake accounts, and take stiff penal action where necessary. The action in the primary market in 2023 was heartening with a large number of smaller companies raising funds. There were 196 public offers in the first nine months of FY24, raising ₹53,023 crore, of which 141 were from SMEs. The sum of ₹4,154 crore raised through primary offers of SME companies in the first nine months of FY24 is 78 per cent higher than the sum raised on this platform in the whole of FY23. The surge in smaller companies approaching the capital market for their funding must be encouraged. But to make capital markets an effective source for fund raising, it needs to be free of unsavoury practices such as stock price manipulations, inflated IPO subscription numbers, insider trading and so on. Using ‘mule’ accounts or accounts of related entities to subscribe to the primary offer is another such practice. With the listing day premium of the issue linked to the extent of oversubscription, there is an incentive for promoters to inflate subscription numbers through such ‘mule’ accounts. This is not the first time that such malpractices have been detected in the primary market. In the IPO scam of 200305, Roopalben Panchal and her family members were found guilty of using 18 fictitious demat accounts to subscribe in the retail category of IPOs. Investigation by SEBI into several IPOs made in 2010 revealed a nexus between promoters and brokers with circular trading done after listing to provide listing gains to investors. SEBI has done well to highlight this illegal practice but with such misconduct being rampant in both secondary and primary markets, it is up to the regulator and the exchanges to make the most of the surveillance tools at their disposal. Stiff penalties should be slapped on the guilty. As for investors flipping their IPO allotment, there is little that the regulator can do . An awareness campaign on the risks in speculating and the benefits of longterm investing, will be beneficial. Annual growth in consumption of diesel has halved in this decade due to better roads, GST think . bl . 7 DELHI businessline. THURSDAY JANUARY 25 2024 Scaling up FPOs Important lessons to be learned from SHGs Tax breaks could spur infra credit INTERIM BUDGET OUTLOOK. Tax schemes for infrastructure bonds, housing loans can be considered Dhirendra Srivastava on the home loan for the year can be claimed as a deduction from the total income up to a maximum of ₹2 lakh under Section 24 (b). These limits have not been increased for quite some time, while investments into residential flats have seen an increase and so has their valuations. An increase in Section 80C up to ₹3 lakh and under Section 24 (b) to ₹4 lakh will encourage the housing sector and enhance the related ones. The government may also look at providing some incentives for NRIs towards investing in fresh housing projects in India, which will further help the related companies in housing infrastructure. F RAHUL MAZUMDAR SELFHELP GROUPS. Fostering change BISWARANJAN ROUT FPOs are not able to prepare a viable business plan which is the first requirement from banks. Further, without a reliable market linkage, FPOs face market risk after aggregation of products. Organised players and institutional buyers also offer stiff competition. Thus, many FPOs encounter financial issues soon after they start their operations, having a bearing on their viability and hence, bankability. Despite these issues, there have been some success stories in FPOs — grapes marketing in Maharshtra and organic turmeric in Odisha. But FPOs are yet to spread their wings and can learn a few lessons from the SHG experience. A BLUEPRINT The process of FPO formation need to be simplified and universalised. The present multiple implementing agency approach needs to be reviewed. Single ownership with specific responsibility may bring richer dividends. Agencies involved with FPOs must connect with the grassroots for their scaling up. Group dynamics which was the hallmark of SHGBLP is not that pronounced in case of FPOs. This lead time is not there in case of FPOs. Banks with a large presence in rural areas, which played a major role in SHGs success, need to be convinced about FPOs viability and ramp up their lending to them. The awareness for FPOs in rural areas must be increased. Greater involvement of the people and taking them on board and passing on them the ownership gradually, holds the key for faster growth of FPOs. FPOs hold the promise of providing enhanced income to the farmers/producer s and their rapid growth is a must for socioeconomic development of vast rural populace. O ver the years the interim vote on account Budgets have been lacklustre with minimal tinkering with taxes, and without any major policy announcements. However, this trend could well possibly be changed by the Modi government, thereby exhibiting their purpose of continued development. There are a few things which could be looked into which may have a bearing on the common man. INFRA BONDS Infrastructure development has been key in the last few years. During the 2023 Budget, the government increased the outlay for infrastructure by 33 per cent to ₹10lakh crore, 3.3 per cent of GDP. Given the multiplier effect, maintaining the momentum is crucial. Interestingly, however despite the optimism, data shows that as in end March 2023, the deployment of bank credit to infrastructure has been the lowest in last five years. Hopefully the continued focus on infrastructure, will help the sector to enhance its share by at least 1 per cent in March 2024 over the previous year if not more. Further as in November 2023 the share of bank credit to infrastructure stood at 35.5 per cent of total bank credit to industry, which was lower than the corresponding period in 2022 when it was 37.1 per cent. This difference hopefully would be covered by end of the financial year. Within the infrastructure sector, the power sector garnered the highest share of bank credit (49.4 per cent, followed by roads (23.9 per cent), as in November 2023. Bank credit to segments like ports, airports and railways has been consistently less than 1 per cent of the total – with India’s focus towards increasing exports and connectivity, these segments require focussed attention. Currently, infrastructure bonds are eligible for immunity under Section 80CCF, which gives an exemption of ₹20,000 to the investors in the year during which the money is invested in HEALTHCARE SUPPORT While there has been an increase in life expectancy in India to 70.2 years as in 2023, there has also been surge in medical expenses as well, with some increase post the pandemic. Given the same, the deduction limit under Section 80D for medical insurance premiums may be increased from ₹25,000 to ₹50,000 for individuals, and ₹50,000 to ₹75,000 for senior citizens. Alternatively, the government can include 10 per cent concessions in all the hospitals in the country, including private, for senior citizens as part of the consultancy fees charged by the doctors, upon showing the Aadhaar card. the bonds and is over and above the ₹1,50,000 exemption limit that Section 80C offers. While the exemption is only for the contribution, and the interest component continues to be taxable, the government may consider excluding the latter too, which are beyond 10 years. This may be a welcome step for the salaried class giving them better returns, The government can look at exempting the interest component of infrastructure bonds, which will assure the salaried class assured returns amidst an uncertain environment especially amidst uncertainties. HOUSING TAX INCENTIVE Secondly, and as corollary to the above is supporting the residential housing sector by enhancing the tax benefits accruing from home loans, given that India’s per capita income is likely to increase from $2,450. In fact, the share of housing loans in overall personal loans has remained quite robust and averaged around 47 per cent during March 2022 to March 2023. At the same the share of housing loans as a share of the overall deployment of bank credit increased from 14.5 per cent in FY 2022 and FY 2023 to 16.5 per cent in November 2023. Currently, the repayment of the principal amount of a home loan is eligible for a deduction of up to ₹1.5 lakh per annum under Section 80C. On the other hand, the interest paid CHILD EDUCATION Launched in 2015 for girl child the Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana has been a success. It offers an attractive interest rate which is higher than PPF and is fully exempted from tax under section 80C. The Tamil Nadu government in 2015 introduced only for its permanent residents the Ponmagan Podhuvaippu Nidhi scheme. This social welfare scheme has been curated to provide educational aid to the male students in the State. India today is not only having the largest population in the world, but also is home to the largest number of illiterate people with over 25 per cent of the population still uneducated. So taking a holistic view, the government may like to explore and widen the scope of the Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana by including boy child as well through a similar scheme. The writer is Economist with Exim Bank. Views expressed are personal Quality of STEM education must be stepped up Srinath Sridharan Shailesh Haribhakti The writer is former General Manager, Nabard. Views expressed are personal I n the current era characterised by swift technological advancements, it is unequivocal that STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) education serves as the fundamental driver of progress. Spanning disciplines such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, quantum computing, and the creation of sustainable solutions like green hydrogen, the paramount importance of STEM education is irrefutable. It forms the bedrock for fostering critical thinking, problemsolving acumen, and a culture of innovation. India finds itself at a pivotal moment, necessitating an immediate enhancement of the quality and modernisation of its STEM education system. Swift improvements are imperative to equip the youth with the essential skills. An effective curriculum must embody the spirit of inquiry and exploration, immersing students in realworld problems to engage their attention and hone analytical skills. The integration of theoretical concepts with handson experiences facilitates a businessline. TWENTY YEARS AGO TODAY. January 25, 2004 Import duty cut on inputs for auto parts, others In a fresh dose of offBudget, preelection Customs duty cuts aimed at bolstering competitiveness of the domestic manufacturers of auto components, plastics and resins, electrical appliances and white goods, the Finance Ministry has lowered import duties on as many as 32 raw material and intermediate items that go into the production of these goods. Novartis gets stay against 6 firms The saga of litigation on the issue of exclusive marketing rights (EMR) for a drug took a fresh turn with Novartis getting a stay from the Madras High Court restraining six drug companies from manufacturing and distributing imatinib mesylate — the active ingredient in Novartis’ blood cancer drug sold under the brandname Glivec. The six companies are Cipla, Sun, Ranbaxy, Hetero, Emcure and Intas. US Bill ‘may hurt Indian IT sector in the long run’ The move by the US Senate to ban subcontracting Federal Government work to other countries may feel like a pinprick now, but has the potential to create a bigger pain in the long run to the Indian software and services industry, experts said. comprehensive understanding of STEM disciplines, fostering a genuine appreciation for the subject matter. The significant progress in artificial intelligence, robotics, the internet of things, and biotechnology heralds the onset of the 4th Industrial Revolution. Education must align with the accelerated pace of change. This necessitates an approach that not only introduces students to the latest tools and technologies but also immerses them in a productdriven experience, emphasising practical application over mere consumption. Propelling India to a leading position in the global innovationbased economy relies heavily on delivering highquality STEM education. It transcends the sheer production of STEM graduates, a phenomenon influenced by our population size and the social prestige associated with such programmes. TEACHER TRAINING Simultaneously, there is a compelling necessity to elevate teacher training and development initiatives, refining their competencies to stay updated on the latest advancements and teaching techniques in STEM subjects. This STEM. Leading the wayGETTY IMAGES involves sharpening research skills for effective action research and embracing innovative approaches, like developing costeffective teaching aids, to elevate the overall quality of STEM education. The transformative changes driven by AIand MLacross industries hinge on a strong foundation in mathematics and computer science. A robust STEM education provides individuals with the essential analytical skills and a problemsolving mindset necessary for navigating the intricacies of these cuttingedge technologies. Quantum computing, the upcoming frontier in computational power, necessitates a workforce wellversed in physics, engineering, and advanced mathematics. Without a solid STEM foundation, unlocking the genuine potential of quantum computing remains an elusive goal. STEM disciplines play a pivotal role in developing efficient processes, materialsand technologies for harnessing and storing renewable energy sources. The intersection of science and engineering is where breakthroughs in green hydrogen production become possible. Indian businesses must proactively contribute to cultivating a STEMliterate workforce. Collaborations with educational institutions, initiatives promoting STEM diversity, and investments in R&D are essential steps in ensuring a robust talent pipeline prepared to tackle the challenges and opportunities posed by the rapidly evolving technological landscape. Label it as safeguarding India’s future, but there is an urgent need for substantial enhancements in our STEM education, spanning from K12 education to the development of postdoctoral scholars engaged in cuttingedge research and innovation. Sridharan is policy researcher and corporate advisor, and Haribhakti is independent director on corporate boards BL TWOWAY CROSSWORD 2362 EASY ACROSS 02. Machine for turning (5) 05. A healing ointment (4) 07. Hidden obstacle (4) 08. In a pretentious manner (8) 09. To recall (8) 11. To clean (4) 12. Switching device, separate from set (6,7) 15. Depraved, foul (4) 17. Climbingorgans of plants (8) 19. Malicious reports (8) 21. To make beer(4) 22. Not new (4) 23. Reckon; match (5) NOT SO EASY DOWN 01. Allow, admit (7) 02. Piece of wood for burning (3) 03. Pollex (5) 04. Strong grass used in papermaking (7) 05. Twice (mus) (3) 06. Sings merrily (5) 10. Eat away (5) 11. Aqua (5) 13. Draw out from (7) 14. Fuel borehole (34) 16. Anvil bone of middle ear (5) 18. Of the nose (5) 20. Dip one's head (3) 21. Laurel tree (3) ACROSS 02. It may give one working in wood a turn (5) 05. Something soothing found in a cannibal meal (4) 07. Droop around top of net on encountering this obstacle (4) 08. Shy pupil turned out in a snobbish manner (8) 09. Don't forget, one is repeatedly told, Guy Fawkes Day (8) 11. A light application of 11 Down colour (4) 12. Distant guide medium has to switch TV on with (6,7) 15. The French are after six in a way that's horrid (4) 17. Slid rent out to those attached to climbers (8) 19. Imputations about a hundred open shoes (8) 21. Contrive something alcoholic, or make the tea (4) 22. It is the secondhand one is accustomed to (4) 23. Agree with the score (5) DOWN 01. Yield will cheat the seed, one is told (7) 02. Record of voyage lumberjack might produce (3) 03. Tom was little, but handy (5) 04. Makes part of it show material for papermaking (7) 05. The second letter is to show it's to be repeated (3) 06. Still upset, sings cheerfully (5) 10. What made Herod eat away inside (5) 11. Irrigate the colour for 11 across (5) 13. A passage out of a religious pamphlet (7) 14. Lubricate thoroughly, and it may produce a gusher (34) 16. The anvil bone broken by cousin, nothing less (5) 18. Is nosysounding (5) 20. Signify one's assent to the land of sleep (3) 21. It will sound like a hound along the coast (3) SOLUTION: BL TWOWAY CROSSWORD 2361 ACROSS 1. Overbalanced 8. Ennobled 9. Tune 11. Dodge 12. Impetus 13. Nick 15. Eden 19. Lineout 20. Embog 22. Gait 23. Dead slow 24. Trench mortar DOWN 2. Vaned 3. Robber 4. Alexia 5. Counted 6. Dressinggown 7. Leading light 10. Ape 14. Concise 16. Pop 17. Stream 18. Fender 21. Balsa CM YK ... . . . . . . NDNDE 1869753 1869753 armer Producer Organisations (FPOs) and Selfhelp Groups (SHGs) are the two most important initiatives taken in the rural development landscape of our country. SHG Bank Linkage Programme (SHGBLP), piloted by NABARD in 1992, aimed at economic and social development of women, has now become one of the premier global microfinance programmes. Farmer Producer Organisations (FPOs) gained traction since 2013 when national policy for the promotion of FPOs was formulated. It was considered as panacea for leveraging the power of collectivisation to increase the income of the farmers. However, there is a huge gulf between the successes of the two programmes with SHGBLP surging ahead. As per NABARD status report 200405, number of credit linked SHGs (those which have received bank loans) up to March 2005 was 16.18 lakh, benefitting 12.10 crore people. According to a study, 24,183 FPOs have been formed till March 2023, by mobilising more than 22 lakh farmers/producers. Clearly, in terms of scale and outreach, SHGBLP was far ahead. While forming SHGs is simple, just requiring 1020 members and an understanding among themselves to follow the norms set by the SHG, forming FPOs is a more complex process requiring more paper work. Further, the process differs from agency to agency which is sponsoring the FPO. For instance, while SFAC mandates 1000 members, those promoted through NABARD assistance requires 300500 members only. SHGs initially formed by NGOs with financial and other support from NABARD and then later on under NRLM (National Rural Livelihoods Mission) by various State Missions. Both the NGOs and State Missions had good and committed presence at the ground and hence, helping in the scaling up of SHGBPL. On the other hand, FPOs are being promoted through various organisations and agencies (no single ownership), most lacking in grassroots presence. Banks have played a major part in the scaling up of SHGs with RBI playing a key role. But for FPOs credit access has been a major challenge despite the number of schemes launched to improve credit access. For instance, many OPINION 9 > STAY INFORMED THROUGH THE DAY @ WWW.BUSINESS-STANDARD.COM ILLUSTRATION: BINAY SINHA VOLUME XXX Number 242 NEW DELHI | THURSDAY, 25 JANUARY 2024 China’s long stumble Stock market decline an opportunity for other developing nations M ost of the time, rumours of a $278 billion capital infusion into a stock market would send shares soaring. Not so in 2024 China, however. Even after Premier Li Qiang called for “forceful steps” to prop up the country’s economy — and despite the news that billions might be funnelled from state-owned enterprises’ overseas accounts into equities — Chinese stock indices rose by just a couple of percentage points. Given that the benchmark CSI 300 Index for mainland stocks had fallen to a five-year low, this was not exactly seen as a recovery. In fact, rather than restoring some dynamism to Chinese markets, this seemed to confirm the widely held suspicion that a fatal loss of confidence had taken hold. There is a near-consensus that the country’s robust growth of decades has reached an end, and that the government in Beijing has neither the tools nor the inclination to change that. This is fundamentally different from the earlier claims of China being close to a crisis or collapse of one or another sort. No collapse is foreseen; it is merely a slow-moving constriction driven by a real estate market that seems impossible to reform, and local-government debt that may be difficult to restructure. Official data coming out of China in the past few days has been disquieting. A broad indicator of prices revealed that deflation might have set in; the price of residential real estate fell the most in nearly a decade. And while China met its official gross domestic product growth target of 5.2 per cent in 2023, the yuan’s loss in value meant that the dollar value of China’s national output shrank for the first time in decades. When the fundamentals are weakening, investors look for signs of policy support. In this case, a cut in interest rates might have helped stabilise the property market. But the People’s Bank of China refused to lower borrowing costs earlier this month. That might have been because the difference between lending and borrowing rates necessary to keep banks afloat was already at the minimum. President Xi Jinping, meanwhile, clearly seemed far more focused on political issues like elections in Taiwan than on addressing the fears about China’s economic future. Taken together, most investors concluded that there were too few growth drivers within the Chinese economy. Since hitting a peak early in 2021, the Chinese stock market has seen a drop of $6 trillion in market capitalisation — from $20 trillion to $14 trillion. Worse, investors seem convinced that this is not even a major concern for the leadership in Beijing. The government, increasingly driven by old-style statist ideology, sees financialisation as inherently dangerous — because it reduces the level of the Party’s control over the private sector. Few expect a return to overall growth and market rallies in China in the short term, or even the medium term. For other emerging markets, including India, meanwhile, an interesting phenomenon has emerged: A decoupling of investors’ expectations from what they predict for China. For the past year or more, Chinese stocks have been declining, while other emerging markets have been on an upward path. This is the first time in two decades that such a divergence has been seen. In China’s stumble lies an opportunity for other developing nations. Sunroof power Suryodaya Yojana must address the challenges T he Pradhan Mantri Suryodaya Yojana, announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on January 22, aims to install rooftop solar panels at 10 million homes. The details of the policy are yet to be announced, but the broad intent is clear: To provide the poor and middle-class households with a clean and cheaper source of electricity. On the face of it, rooftop solar power offers a meaningful way to achieve universal electrification targets, since it precludes the need for last-mile connectivity infrastructure of the conventional electricity-generating models. It is also a useful means of moving the needle on India’s international renewable energy commitments. India aims to have 50 per cent of its installed energy-generation capacity coming from renewable sources. But to achieve this, the new scheme must address several challenges that rooftop solar projects have faced since inception. The Suryodaya Yojana is the fourth rooftop solar scheme to be announced since 2010, when the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission was launched. The second had come in 2015 to incentivise households and state power distribution companies (discoms) to install projects. In 2017, the government had announced the Solar Transfiguration of India (SRISTI) scheme, which sought to strengthen discoms’ role as the nodal agency for implementing rooftop solar schemes by offering financial incentives. The upshot of 13 years of policy support has been a grid-connected rooftop solar installed capacity of just 11 Gw. While 70,000 to 80,000 homes are powered by solar energy at present, the deadline to achieve the 40-Gw installed capacity target has been pushed from 2022 to 2026. Lack of awareness, high cost and poor availability of financing options, and discoms’ reluctance to implement such projects are the three major hurdles in the wider adoption of rooftop solar systems. To be successful, therefore, the Suryodaya Yojana will have to work on convincing people of the benefits. But doing so would first require the demonstration of several successful projects. As for costs, the bill to set up a rooftop solar plant can range from ~2.2 lakh to ~3.5 lakh. And the few available financing options are accessible only to the rich or upper-middle class. Given that most Indian households fall within the low-consumption slab, rooftop solar will become feasible only with heavy subsidy support. Financing also plays a role in discoms’ reluctance, as most fear that a net metering system will lead to a loss of revenue from high-value consumers and worsen their already weak finances. The Suryodaya Yojana is the first scheme to set a target for the number of households rather than the amount of electricity to be generated. The aggregate number seems ambitious, but it is quite modest when set against the potential. According to a report by the independent think-tank Council on Energy, Environment and Water, over 250 million households across India have the potential to deploy 637 Gw of solar energy capacity on rooftops. To be sure, the government has now gained the institutional experience of implementing household infrastructure programmes for toilets, drinking water and cooking gas. But bringing rooftop solar power to less affluent households might require addressing a new set of challenges. The importance of Asean for India The evolving regional trade context should be the primary guiding factor for the AITIGA review T he review of the Asean-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) is scheduled to begin next month. This has been a long-pending demand from the Indian industry seeking to alter the provisions of the agreement so that the bilateral trade balance, which is in favour of Asean, can be potentially reduced or reversed. Statements by the Indian industry, following soon after the review announcement last November, flagging an increase in certain imports from Asean (Business Standard, December 11, 2023), reflect the same sentiment. However, it would be best if the Indian negotiations are not guided solely by these apprehensions but undertaken keeping in view the evolving global and regional trade context. The AITIGA, signed in 2009, was a shallow free-trade agreement (FTA) with less than 80 per cent tariff line liberalisation. The FTA also granted a greater advantage to some of the Asean economies through a relatively large negative list. Additionally, the rules of origin (RoO), specified a lower value-added content relative to India’s bilateral FTAs with member economies such as Singapore. The expected compensatory gains in the agreement on services liberalisation also did not materialise due AMITA BATRA to the prolonged time period over which it was negotiated and Asean’s limited internal services sector liberalisation. The increasing deficit with Asean, though, is more on account of India’s higher tariffs, and hence a relatively high preferential margin accorded to Asean economies, as also due to India’s limited export competitiveness. These two contributory factors are true for India in almost all its FTAs, given that India maintains relatively high average applied mostfavoured nation (MFN) tariffs in the non-agriculture sector. So, it would be useful for India to reduce its import tariffs before the start of the revision process next month. The Budget, due on February 1, may be a good time to accomplish this long-sought trade reform. STRAIGHT TALK BOOK REVIEW DAMMU RAVI T he raison d’etre for international negotiations is to tackle global challenges through international cooperation where each country advances its national interests. India’s approach is no different, but the exercise of arriving at a common national position in negotiations is a complex one, as the erudite scholarly diplomat Ambassador Mohan Kumar explains in his book India’s Moment . The book is an attempt to set straight India’s record in multilateral negotiations, which is often criticised as obstructionist. India’s predicament in negotiations has been analysed through the prism of an integrated assessment framework consisting of six factors of variable The writer is senior fellow, CSEP, professor, School of International Studies, JNU, and author of India’s Trade Policy in the 21st Century, Routledge: London, 2022. The views are personal Fiscal policy reset T he upcoming interim Budget will be the last fiscal policy exercise of the second Narendra Modi government. It would also mark the end of what has perhaps been the most difficult five-year term for fiscal management in recent memory. Although government finances are still recovering from the shock induced by the Covid-19 pandemic, the policy establishment, particularly the Ministry of Finance led by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, must be commended for its adept handling of the situation. Managing government finances during the pandemic period was extremely difficult. There was no playbook available for reference. The experience of the global financial crisis (2008) was not of much use — it was, after all, only a financial crisis! Here was a situation where the entire country had to be locked down. Besides, there was a very limited understanding of the virus in the initial phase. Worse still, India was not the only country dealing with such conditions. What this meant was businesses stopped functioning, except those considered absolutely essential. This led to massive job losses, particularly in small enterprises and contactintensive services, with very little visRAJESH KUMAR ibility. Making any medium-term economic projection was nearly impossible. Governments in advanced economies rolled out massive support programmes without caring much about financial implications. India did not have that option. Its debt to gross domestic product (GDP) and the general government Budget deficit were already on the higher side, and a very large deficit would have significantly increased financial stability risks. It is worth remembering that it was not only the expenditure side that Budget managers had to worry about. Revenues were under severe pressure because of the nationwide shutdown. There were calls from influential economists to simply monetise debt and spend about 5-10 per cent of GDP to extend relief and support demand. Indian policy managers did well by not going down that path despite overwhelming intellectual support. They rightly opted for targeted options like providing cash support and free food grains to the most vulnerable sections of the population. India did suffer because of the lack of medical capacity, but no amount of fiscal intervention could have developed it overnight. Nonetheless, the fiscal deficit of the Union government increased from 4.6 per cent of GDP in 2019-20 to 9.2 per cent in 2020-21. The increase was also partly driven by the cleaning up of books and accounting for offbudget borrowings. Fortunately, a better understanding of the virus over time and scientific breakthroughs allowed for the reopening of the economy, leading to improved economic activity and revenue flows. It is against this backdrop that the government is targeting to contain the fiscal deficit at 5.9 per cent of GDP in the current year. A slower reduction can be attributed, in part, to increased capital spending. In absolute terms, the Union government’s capital expenditure tripled between 2018-19 and 2023-24. The government prioritised economic revival after the pandemic through increased capital spending. However, now that the economy is growing at a higher-than-expected rate, it is time to accelerate the pace of fiscal consolidation, and the upcoming Budget could be a good starting point. The Finance Minister has said that the industry should not expect any big announcements. The government would also do well to refrain from populist announcements before the general elections. The government intends to reduce the fiscal deficit to below 4.5 per cent of GDP by 2025-26. This would mean the consolidation over the next two years, on REAL TERMS India’s negotiating imperatives importance — Gandhi Litmus Test (poverty veto); policy space; domestic politics; geopolitical imperatives; commitment to multilateralism, and principles; and realpolitik and material gain. The author’s assertion that the “poverty veto” always triumphed in India’s negotiations ignores the underlying fears of our negotiators going wrong that is so symptomatic of our bureaucracy. Asymmetrical rules of engagement that were framed much before the developing world was liberated are said to be the reason for deep divisions in multilateral trade negotiations. The glorified unlimited virtues of free market economic policies popularly known as the “Washington Consensus” were challenged in the 1980s by developing countries as they sought more favourable treatment in World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations. The author exposes the West’s arm-twisting tactics and its duplicity in selectively seeking trade liberalisation in areas of their interests. The current disagreement over the issue of “public stockholding for food security It may also be worth noting, in the context of review negotiations, that agriculture and textiles, often cited by India as examples of high protection by Asean’s non-tariff measures, are among sectors that remain outside the realm of preferential market access in most FTAs across the world. The larger context of the FTA review, however, needs to be viewed in terms of the distinct advantage that it can provide India by facilitating its integration with regional and global value chains (RVCs/ GVCs). The FTA revision with Asean gives India an opportunity to make good the loss of staying out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and a means to integrate with a proximate regional GVC hub. This is particularly timely as the centrality of Asean to the RVCs/GVCs is getting reinforced in the wake of the “China plus one” diversification strategy reorienting along the lines of ally-shoring. Asean economies’ largely neutral geopolitical stance, relative economic resilience, strong export orientation, and participation in multiple trade and investment agreements make them the most attractive in the region for GVCs relocating away from China. Regional economies like Japan and Korea are actively subsidising friendshoring to Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, among other Asean economies. Vietnam is the new semiconductor manufacturing friendshoring location for the US, in addition to an upgrade of the bilateral relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership. This evident intensification of GVC investments and the increasing number of potential beneficiary Asean economies in this context is a critical element that must be given high importance in the FTA review process. Keeping this in mind, three key inputs for the AITIGA review are discussed below. The foremost consideration should be given to the formulation of appropriate RoOs. Over and above the fact that India should avoid excessively complex, dualcriteria-based RoOs, and make the certification procedures less burdensome, there is a need for careful consideration to be given to the region-wide cumulation formula that Asean countries have opted for under the RCEP. The 40 per cent regional content rule under the RCEP is highly facilitative of RVCs and a major attraction for relocating GVCs. It is possible that Asean will use the RCEP as a template for the AITIGA review. Accepting some form of region-wide cumulation in the RoOs will also help India overcome the limitation of staying out of the RCEP and assist in its integration with the RVCs/GVCs. Even for the product-specific rules of origin, India should take care not to specify the criterion of “change in tariff sub-heading” at the 6-digit level, as this may constrain parts and components trade integral to GVCs. The second significant aspect relates to the investment chapter that India has thus far found difficult to negotiate in its FTAs. Asean’s expectations may, however, be defined by the latest upgrade of its FTA with Australia-New Zealand, which is significantly forward-looking. Apart from dispute settlement and MFN treatment for investors, the amendment of provisions limiting the use of performance conditions such as domestic content and minimum export requirements have been included in the revised investment chapter. These elements enhance the regional economies’ potential pull for investments. India may, therefore, need to evolve its stance beyond that based on its highly-restrictive model Bilateral Investment Treaty of 2016. Thirdly, learning from the AITIGA experience, the review negotiations should be undertaken on a simultaneous and comprehensive basis, encompassing goods, services and investment liberalisation. Separate negotiations for each component limits, ex-ante, any possibility for simultaneous cross-sectoral bargaining and trade-offs, thereby structurally limiting the ambition of the negotiating parties. However, it is also important that in the liberalisation of services, India thinks beyond mode-4 liberalisation to consider sectors that, when combined with manufacturing, will contribute to export competitiveness. This includes areas of India’s comparative advantage such as repair and maintenance, as well as digital services, a sector that has received special focus in the Asean vision towards establishing the regional economic community. Finally, India must appreciate the importance of looking east. This is the only region following the FTA rulebook, as opposed to North America and the EU adopting selective trade protectionism and inwardlooking regionalism. Recent Trade Policy Forum talks with the US have not given any indication of restoration of the Generalised System of Preferences for India. Furthermore, the agreement towards the trade pillar of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, critical to GVCs, has not found consensus among member economies. India’s FTA with the EU has also shown little progress so far. Therefore, India should ensure sufficiently diligent prior preparation for beneficial negotiations and timely conclusion of the AITIGA review process. purposes” is a legacy issue, drawn from the iniquitous Agreement on Agriculture from which the West benefited under Green Box subsidies, while the 10 per cent leeway under Amber Box risks developing countries breaching the limit. The possibility of its impingement on Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana to feed India’s poor is a concern. India’s inability to garner developing countries’ support at the WTO has been attributed tothe latter’s varying levels of development and integration in the global economy. This reasoning overlooks India’s negotiating shortcomings in deftly managing WTO negotiations, a Sisyphean task where the art of the game is to subsume national interests in the multilateral trade rules. In the context of a dysfunctional WTO dispute settlement, Mr Kumar believes that the most-favoured nation-based trade will be on the wane and in its place freetrade agreement and plurilaterals will become increasingly relevant. He advocates India participating in the plurilateral joint initiative on “investment facilitation” in the WTO to at least shape the rules rather than preserving policy space for the future. The hard-earned policy space, he laments, often goes waste with no domestic reform forthcoming. He suggests a code of conduct for all political parties to support a consistent national position in negotiations. On climate change, the substantial shifts in India’s negotiating position have been well brought out. We get a sense of the theatrics in the Copenhagen COP15 in 2009 when Barack Obama, displaying unipolar hegemony, barged into the BASIC Leaders’ meeting to rein them in (BASIC stands for Brazil, South Africa, India and China). As India’s Ambassador to France during the famous Paris Deal on Climate Change (COP 21) in 2014 Mr Kumar provides a ringside view of how the negotiations played out with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a novice to international negotiations then, emerging as a lead player with the timely launch of the International Solar Alliance. With the emphasis on the National Hydrogen average, will need to be worth 0.7 per cent of GDP per year, compared to 0.5 per cent in the current fiscal year. There are a variety of reasons why the government will need to increase the pace of consolidation. According to the International Monetary Fund’s projections, the general government debt is expected to increase from an estimated 81 per cent of GDP in 202223 to 82.4 per cent in 2024-25. A slower pace of consolidation will not bring down the debt level quickly and remain a source of macroeconomic risk. Moreover, higher debt will necessitate increased allocations to interest payments over time, leaving fewer resources for other commitments. Already, the central government’s interest liability has gone up from about 36 per cent of its revenue in 2019-20 to over 41 per cent in 2023-24. Any further increase will restrict the government’s capacity to manoeuvre. Drawing up a more ambitious consolidation path, to be sure, will not be easy and require adjustments on the expenditure side. It is worth noting that the nominal growth rate in the current fiscal year — according to the first advance estimates of the National Statistical Office — is estimated to be just 8.9 per cent, compared with 16.1 per cent in 2022-23, largely because of the collapse in the wholesale price index-based inflation rate. Given that the Reserve Bank of India has rightly reiterated its commitment to the target of 4 per cent consumer price inflation, the government is unlikely to get a large nominal growth advantage on a sustained basis. High nominal growth not only increases revenues but also expands the nominal size of the economy at a faster rate, making the deficit targets easier to attain. Moderate inflation will yield moderate growth in tax collection. A substantial increase in tax buoyancy can only materialise over a period of time. The Union government’s tax collection, for example, has hovered around 10-11 per cent of GDP for nearly two decades. Thus, a faster consolidation will require expenditure adjustments. This will not be easy but remains a necessity for the next leg of responsible fiscal management. Mission, bio-fuels, Smart City initiatives and so on, India is expected to play a decisive role on climate change. India’s stands on various geopolitical developments are lucidly covered, as the author underlines the spirit of pragmatism in our approach. On the Ukraine crisis, India took a nuanced stand in consideration of the legacy relationship with Russia and balanced it with reference to the UN charter and sovereignty in support of Ukraine. He highlights the hypocrisy of the West, INDIA’S MOMENT : which does not hesitate Changing Power to engage with countries such as Equations Pakistan and China and around the takes unilateral World decisions in deference Author: Mohan Kumar to their allies’ concerns. Publisher: Through the QUAD, Harper Collins India seeks to counter Price: ~599 security threats from its neighbours. But this policy of multialignment, the author cautions, could unwittingly cause India to succumb to external pressures. In the author’s perception, the G20 is more representative of contemporary geopolitical realities than multilateral organisations. Even as the global power equations are in a state of flux, India’s basic circumstances have to change for it to play a lead role in negotiations, the author contends. It hinges on the need to bring down poverty numbers to 100-150 million through inclusive policies and manufacturing as India grows to become a $10 trillion economy. Such a transformation would presumably mitigate the “poverty veto” and give enough margin for manoeuvre in negotiations but does not discount the imperativeness of a negotiating strategy that is fearless and takes decisions with a view to wiping out poverty from the country. This passionately written book provides interesting reflections; India’s success is not just important for itself but for the world at large, for it will have demonstrated that it is eminently possible for a country to be a democracy and yet achieve significant economic prosperity — in obvious comparison to China. The scale and size of its success would mean a tectonic shift on the global development index, especially on the Sustainable Development Goals. This evolution would truly signify “India’s Moment”. The reviewer is an Indian Foreign Service officer 20 NEW DELHI THURSDAY JANUARY 25, 2024 Opinion E STA B L I S H E D I N 1 9 24 { OUR TAKE } Rediscovery of Karpoori Thakur Bharat Ratna for the socialist leader from Bihar is also an acknowledgment of the electoral import of social justice politics A Bharat Ratna for Karpoori Thakur, more than three decades after the socialist leader and twice chief minister (CM) of Bihar passed away, is a belated recognition of the social justice politics pioneered by Ram Manohar Lohia. Lohia foregrounded caste as the primary identity in society and advocated reservations for other backward classes (OBCs) to build an egalitarian India. The idea took time to gain roots in northern India, the main battleground of Lohiaite politics. Leaders such as Thakur stood with Lohia in resisting the Congress’ political hegemony, which was ambiguous towards reservations as a social policy, and succeeded in transforming politics in the Hindi heartland. As the Bihar CM in the late 1970s (when he was part of the Janata Party), Thakur introduced sub-quotas within the OBC segment to ensure that the numerically small backward castes could access the benefits of reservations. However, the immediate context for honouring Thakur may well be the move by the INDIA bloc, a formidable alliance in Bihar, to make OBC empowerment the centrepiece of its campaign in the general elections. The announcement of the award came a day before Thakur’s birth centenary, which the Janata Dal (United) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal, were poised to celebrate on a grand scale. However, the BJP may have stolen the thunder from them by conferring Bharat Ratna on Thakur. Though Thakur was never associated with the Hindu Right, it is clear that the BJP is in no mood to let the two parties, flag bearers of social justice politics in Bihar, monopolise Thakur’s legacy, which has loomed large in postMandal Bihar. In that sense, the Bharat Ratna awarded to Thakur is a reflection of the pull caste continues to exert on Indian politics. The BJP and the Congress in the Hindi heartland were opposed to Mandal, but today both parties are careful to endorse the politics of social justice. At a micro-level, honouring Thakur could be an outreach to the extremely backward classes, and an attempt to prevent consolidation of OBC votes in the wake of the Bihar caste census: The INDIA bloc’s demand for a nationwide caste census has the potential to paper over differences within the OBC segment, even challenge the consolidation of the Hindu vote that the BJP has already achieved, and hoped to build on with the Ram Mandir. The BJP does not want to leave any flank open for the Opposition to attack it. The Bharat Ratna for Thakur has spiced up the contest in Bihar. Is Rahul Gandhi’s yatra a distraction? est Bengal chief minister and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee has said that her party, part of the still-work-inprogress INDIA bloc of Opposition parties will have no truck with the Congress in the state. She said on Wednesday that her party would contest the Lok Sabha elections alone in the state; that her suggestions on a possible arrangement between the parties were ignored; and, most worryingly, that she and her party were not in the loop on Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra. It was always going to be difficult for the two parties to partner in the state — there is deep antipathy between them in West Bengal, as evident in Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury’s repeated tirades aimed at Banerjee — but the TMC chief’s comments point to a larger problem. The Congress appears to be preoccupied with the yatra, the objective of which is, as yet, unclear. Given the limitations on its resources — the party itself has been vocal about this — the Congress would have done well to focus its efforts on the Lok Sabha elections, and achieve closure in seat sharing talks . To date, there’s been no consensus on a seat sharing deal in any state. The Congress’ ally in Bihar, the JD(U) has also expressed its concern at the delay. It’s plausible that Banerjee’s comments are aimed at getting a favourable deal for her party — but with the announcement of national elections likely to happen in just over a month, her desire to get on with it is understandable. And if the TMC was indeed in the dark about the yatra, then the Congress is guilty of a lapse in communication that may have dealt the fledgling INDIA bloc a grievous blow. W Alliance of mutual concerns, interests France, with its search for strategic autonomy and influence in global affairs, can partner with India in its pursuit of a multipolar world T he joint statement issued on May 4, 2022, after the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to France, asserted that “the strategic partnership is anchored on the solid bedrock of deep and consistent mutual trust, abiding faith in strategic autonomy, unwavering commitment to international law, and belief in a multipolar world shaped by reformed and effective multilateralism”. PM Narendra Modi’s subsequent visit to Paris on July 14, 2023, as the guest of honour on France’s national day, and President Emmanuel Macron’s forthcoming visit on January 26 as chief guest on Republic Day, bear testimony to that assessment in May 2022. During the 2023 visit, also marking 25 years since the establishment of a “strategic partnership” in January 1998 pre-dating our nuclear tests of May that year, the two countries issued a “Horizon 2047” document “towards a century of India-France relations”. It, inter alia, stated that India and France are longstanding strategic partners in the Indo-Pacific; to France and witnessed the efforts that the partnership is aimed at rein- the French side made to make the forcing their sovereignty and deci- visit special, including an unprecesion-making autonomy; and that dented joint ride down the river “France is one of India’s key partners Seine with President Francois Holin the development of a self-reliant lande. Modi visited again in June defence industrial and technological 2017, soon after Macron’s election in base”. May, to establish contact with the Earlier, Macron visited India in new leader, given the importance of March 2018, within a year of being the relationship. His next bilateral elected President, and said that visit, in August 2019, came after India France would like to “make India our was invited by the French President prime strategic partner in the as a special guest at the G7 summit at region”. During that visit, the two Biarritz. French Presidents, includcountries issued a Joint Strategic ing Jacques Chirac, Nicolas Sarkozy, Vision for Cooperation in Hollande and now Macron, the Indian Ocean Region, have been invited as chief involving mutual logistics guests on Republic Day. support, joint exercises France has been supporleading to interoperability, tive of India in multilateral and information-sharing. In forums. It supported India’s 2023, the partnership was accession to the Missile Arun K extended to cover the Technology Control Regime Singh broader Indo-Pacific. Trilat(MTCR) in 2016, to Wasseeral arrangements were ininaar Arrangement (where it tiated with Australia and played a leadership role in UAE, with meetings at the foreign the process) in 2017, and to the Ausminister level. tralia Group in 2018. It supported In 2018, the two countries also India for membership of the Nuclear finalised a Joint Vision for Space Suppliers Group in 2016, but that was Cooperation, covering space situa- blocked by China. In August 2019, foltional awareness, maritime surveil- lowing India’s action related to Artilance and domain awareness. A Stra- cle 370 on Jammu and Kashmir, tegic Space Dialogue was initiated in France, supported by the US, blocked June 2023. China’s efforts to raise the issue in The exchange of visits between the the UN Security Council (UNSC). two countries reveals the importance France has also, for some time now, both sides attach to the relationship. supported India for permanent PM Modi first visited Paris in April membership of the UNSC. 2015. I was then India’s ambassador France, along with the US, Russia Leveraging innovative disruptions in politics nce, a year-end study revealed that to be effective must reach the last mile. Be it Ford vehicles sold the most globally. demonetisation or nationwide implementaSo, each of the global competitors of tion of Goods and Services Tax, or the thrust the time invested in technology, in on digital economy or the passing of the triple marketing and in services to challenge Ford. talaq bill, these were all massive disruptions However, Ford was miles ahead next year as that in some way benefitted the last mile in well. The competitors went through another the supply chain. The political innovations cycle of research and development and more now reached a point where they transformed investments, but the result was the same. This the landscape and competed directly with the time, however, the competitors hit upon a dis- established political space. That the estabruptively innovative idea of combining their lished players were steeped in their own mire resources — men, material and labour — to only helped. develop a single consortium vehicle to comEstablished companies may initially dispete with Ford. Yet again, Ford stood out with miss or resist disruptive innovations, as they even bigger sales. The competitors then often disrupt existing business models and approached Ford for answers. revenue streams. However, those that fail to Henry Ford, confident as always, agreed to adapt may find themselves marginalised or help the consortium and took them to his even pushed out of the market. Does India’s garage where his and the competitor’s vehi- Grand Old Party, the Congress, find itself in cles were parked. Each aspect of the vehicle, this predicament? the styling, the features, and after Disruptive innovations often sucsales service, were all compared. To ceed by addressing the unmet needs the competitor’s chagrin, it was of a specific customer segment. By agreed by Ford that the consortium’s providing a solution that is more vehicle stood out. Now was the time affordable, convenient, or accessible, to check the engine and the bonnet they can attract customers who were was opened. Lo and behold, no previously overlooked by incumSS engine in the Ford vehicle. The conbents. Some examples in the technolMantha sortium was now truly perplexed ogy arena were personal computers and pleaded with Ford for an disrupting mainframe computers, answer. Ford informed that his vehidigital photography disrupting tradicle rode on his “name”. Though this is a par- tional film photography, online streaming serody, there are lessons here. All innovations do vices disrupting traditional cable TV or even not work, disruptive or otherwise, and you ride-sharing services disrupting traditional need one charismatic leader to challenge the taxi services. The PM Jan Dhan scheme, and norms, not multiples of them. the direct beneficiary scheme are examples in Innovative disruption, or disruptive inno- the political space. vation, was introduced by Harvard Business Religion binds people like nothing else. SecSchool professor Clayton Christensen in 1995. ularism has innate fallacies. While religion It describes the process by which a new prod- binds people, albeit to the extent of taking uct or service emerges and eventually dis- sides, secularism is loosely defined and often rupts an existing market, displacing estab- an abstract idea. So, what else can be a better lished market leaders and fundamentally tool for political disruption than religion? The changing the way business is conducted in Ram temple in Ayodhya is a case in point. that industry. However, disruption must be That a majority of the Hindus instantly identihelmed by an effective leader. Politics too is fied with the cause, was a success of religious business today. Are we seeing disruptive disruption. All disruptions work on effective innovation in politics today? strategies. Effective strategies need effective Disruptive innovations usually enter the leaders. Effective leaders create their own market at the low end, targeting customers strategies. who are underserved by existing products or The leader’s approach was simple and services. This allows them to gain a foothold straight. It involved creativity, adaptability, and gradually improve their offerings to and a deep understanding of market dynamappeal to a broader customer base. While the ics. He identified unmet needs, focussed on ideological arm ensured forays into the last customer experience, started small and itermile, the political arm ensured success with ated, leveraged emerging technologies, collabtargeted benefits. Soon, they captured a larger orated and networked, kept disrupting own market share as they became more competi- business models, built a culture of innovation, tive. Smokeless “choola” was one such low- silently invested in political research and end service that got into the everyday psyche. development, adapted to market feedback and Building toilets was another. The disruptions scaled gradually while his lab did agile develgot even better. The discounted gas cylinders opment and created prototypes. endeared rural women folk to the party forAll management principles, which we only ever. teach in the classrooms, were practised to the Disruptive innovations often arise from the T. “Dev to Desh”, “Ram to Rashtra”, “Vijay to introduction of new technologies or the appli- Vinay”, “Ram is not conflict but resolution”, cation of existing technologies in novel ways. and “Tent to Temple” — are all aimed at maxiThis can lead to a significant transformation mising the returns of a calculated disruption. of the market landscape, with new entrants Doesn’t each of those statements touch some displacing established players. Any disruption part of the soul? Understanding and leveraging innovative disruption is crucial for both established comDISRUPTIVE INNOVATIONS panies and entrepreneurs, as it can open up OFTEN ARISE FROM THE new opportunities for growth and success. INTRODUCTION OF NEW Organisations that embrace change and proTECHNOLOGIES... THIS CAN actively explore innovative solutions are better positioned to thrive in dynamic and comLEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT petitive markets. It is the same in politics. O TRANSFORMATION OF THE MARKET LANDSCAPE SS Mantha is former chairman, AICTE. The views expressed are personal France has been supportive of India in multilateral fora and Israel, is among the leading defence partners of India. It has been a longstanding source for fighter aircraft, the Mystère and Mirage, and now the latest generation Rafale, and is under consideration for a navy version. It has assisted Mazagaon Dock in building six Scorpene submarines, with discussions on for another three. Discussions are also ongoing for the transfer of technology for engines for helicopters and fighter aircraft. Space has been another area of established cooperation, with India launching more than 20 satellites from the Kourou launch base in French Guiana, and joint satellites for environmental monitoring. Now, the countries are initiating cooperation for space and maritime situational awareness. Terrorism is an area of common concern, with both countries having faced major attacks in the past. During his 2018 visit, Macron said, “Terrorism is the structuring issue of the fresh impetus we are giving to our strategic partnership”. It was agreed then to work together against radicalisation on social networks, and the financing of terrorism. As India deepens its economic, technological and defence cooperation with the US, it is important to have another strong partner in the West, asserting its strategic autonomy, so as to be able to hedge against any sudden or tactical shift in US policy or priority. France provides that option and gave evidence of it in 1998, when it refused to criticise India and opposed US-led sanctions, following our nuclear tests. However, the limits of the French partnership should also be kept in view. France does not have the same capability as, for instance, the US, to influence global norms and strategies. There are nuances in its assessment of the strategic challenge from China in the Indo-Pacific, given economic and investment linkages, and currently, the felt need to contain Chinese material defence support to Russia on Ukraine. As India searches for options to promote its interests in a multipolar world, and a multipolar Asia, France, with its own search for strategic autonomy and influence in global affairs, will be a useful partner. Arun K Singh has served as India’s ambassador to the US, Israel, and France. The views expressed are personal { MAYAWATI } BAHUJAN SAMAJ PARTY CHIEF P On his 100th birth anniversary, I pay immense tribute to the great leader Karpoori Thakur, who fought to ensure constitutional right, social justice and equality to the extremely backward classes A Building the ecosystem to benefit from medtech he Centre recently launched an initia- research (namely, Health Technology Assesstive — MedTech Mitra — for hand- ment in India and Centre for Guidelines) are holding innovators for clinical evalua- the core partners of this highway for develoption, regulatory facilitation and uptake ment, validation, authorisation and uptake of of new medtech products. made in India medtech products. The journey of a new medtech product (e.g. In a short time since its launch, over 80 medical device or diagnostic) starts as the innovators have connected with MedTech idea of an inventor who demonstrates its Mitra indicating the large unmet need for proof of concept (PoC) in a lab. The inventor such a system. The potential scope of this systhen needs a partner to manufacture proto- tem is immense. The medtech industry is a types for further testing. The product may sunrise sector currently valued at $11 billion require animal studies. Ultimately, human and poised to reach $50 billion by 2030. studies are required to be carried out follow- India’s innovation ecosystem has more than ing strict regulatory and ethical guidelines, 100,000 startups (compared to 500 just a few and employing robust research methods. An years ago), with a significant proportion of approved and licenced product then awaits them focused on medical technologies. India opportunity for large-scale production. also has a huge demand for medical devices, Innovators and startups may be very good including diagnostics, but we import 80% of in their technical work, but find it them. The indigenous medtech hard to navigate the complex jourproducts are quite often of low-end ney from ideation to a ready-to-use technology. This has to change: They product in a clinical setting. The difneed to cater not only to the nation’s ficulties faced by them are related to present and future needs but also to their lack of understanding of reguthe global demand. It is India’s deslatory requirements, testing and valtiny to be a super hub of medical Vinod K idation, industry-grade production, technologies. For this, our innovaPaul animal studies, clinical evaluation/ tion and R&D system has to excel. trials, and technology assessment And, our industry has to transform imperatives, among others. As a itself into a supplier of high-end and result, a large number of potentially effective innovative medtech products worldwide. medtech products remain stuck at different The government has recently taken several stages of development and fail to see the light steps to promote the medtech sector. Medical of the day. Frustration follows, and many device parks are being developed and the innovators may give up. This situation sup- National Medical Device policy has been presses the entrepreneurial spirit and talent launched. A National Policy on Research and of young people. Development and Innovation in the pharmaTo address the above problems, the Indian medtech sector was released. A Scheme for Council of Medical Research (ICMR) the Promotion of Research and Innovation in launched the MedTech Mitra initiative on the Pharma MedTech Sector (PRIP) has also December 25 in partnership with NITI Aayog been recently initiated to provide a paradigm and the Central Drugs Standard Control Orga- shift in the pharma-medtech sector. The Mednisation (CDSCO) of the ministry of health Tech Mitra initiative should be seen as a conand family welfare. A portal has been opera- tinuum of the above efforts to galvanise the tionalised on the ICMR website coordinated sector. by the Medical Device and Diagnostics MisMedTech Mitra is not a portal, but a whole sion Secretariat at ICMR (https://medtechmi- system of expert help, facilitation, technical tra.icmr.org.in/). Pre-clinical and clinical support and regulatory guidance. The governstudies are a big challenge in terms of collabo- ment invites scientists, innovators, startups rating teams and funds. The MedTech Mitra and established companies to access the Medteam will connect the innovators with Tech Mitra window. We are committed to researchers of the ICMR’s pre-clinical and learning and improving this friend-of-innovaclinical trials network and other research tors enabler. MedTech Mitra has the potential institutions. Funding would be offered to to be a game-changer for India’s MedTech institutions that conduct pre-clinical and/or innovation ecosystem and the Make in India clinical studies on novel medical technolo- mission. The platform will also strengthen gies, selected by a scientific review process. India’s efforts to achieve universal health covAtal Innovation Mission (AIM), the depart- erage through affordable, indigenous, high ment of pharmaceuticals, the INTENT net- quality medical devices and diagnostics. work of research institutions and the Kalaam Institute of Health Technology, and the two Vinod K Paul is member, NITI Aayog. programmes at the department of health The views expressed are personal T R. N. I. No. 503/1957 ● Postal Reg. No. DL(ND)-11/6058/2018-19-20 ‘Licensed to post without prepayment’ LICENCE No. U(C)-113/2006-08, AIR SURCHARGE: Raipur and beyond by Rail or Road - Re 5/-, Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Coimbatore, Chennai, Cochin, Goa, Hyderabad, Khajuraho, Mumbai, Trivandrum, Visakhapatnam, Vijayawada and beyond by Rail or Road - Rs. 10/-; PRINTED PUBLISHEDBYBYMANHAR DINESH KAPOOR MITTAL for atatHT PRINTED && PUBLISHED forand andon onbehalf behalfof ofHT HTMedia MediaLtd. 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Investors lost because markets fell, Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) policyholders and State Bank of India (SBI) depositors got worried as they heard rumours of their insurer losing large sums of money and their bank on the brink, even of Adani “running away.” Job opportunities were lost as Adani had to shelve its public offer, slow down its investments and return to the drawing board for new projects as its joint-venture partners got jittery. There was more to come. Public interest litigations (PILs), typically the privilege of a few activists, were filed and valuable Supreme Court (SC) time was spent on the case. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) was ordered to probe the matter and a panel of eminent persons was set up that ran into a needless controversy. What came of it? Having suffered for almost a year, Adani has recouped much of its lost market value, but that’s no comfort for retail investors who lost. While the apex court has asked Sebi to work towards ensuring such events do not cause losses, which seems almost impossible, it has left unanswered questions. Who will compensate investors? Is there no accountability for making irresponsible damaging statements? Are PILs the prerogative of a few? We should examine if Sebi’s Prohibition of Fraudulent and Unfair Trade Practices relating to Securities Markets (PFUTP) Regulations may apply. “Dealing in securities covers such acts which may be knowingly designed to influence the decision of investors in securities,” says this regulatory code. Further: “Fraud includes a false statement made without reasonable ground for believing it to be true, in order to induce another person or his agent to deal in securities, whether or not there is any wrongful gain.” That the report lacked substance was known, as most cases cited had been settled long back, including a few by the SC itself. Orchestral noise, however, did damage, as statements against SBI, LIC J.N. Gupta is managing director, Stakeholders Empowerment Services. Statistical clarity feeds successful governance O India’s statistical system is under the PMO’s lens. Given recent data dissonance, it evidently needs a relook. The country’s view of itself is too hazy in these digital times of sharp resolution I t is axiomatic that a country needs highquality data to guide policy, a clear picture of itself created by statistics, and it’s ironic that we have fallen behind the curve on ensuring this for a digital age of precision. In our early decades of freedom, India was known for innovation on this score, given the challenges of placing a vast land of mass poverty and tricky diversity under the lens for data collection, slicing and dicing. Today, however, we have a hazier view of our progress than we should in the 2020s, given the modern tools available, with official readings of key variables contested by critics. To be sure, no complex formula captures the absolute truth. The best we can hope for is a high-rez snapshot, in contrast with one that is too blurry (or badly distorted by dodgy inputs), as an approximation of reality. Even so, statistics need to be as robust as they can be made for their utility to be maximized as policy inputs and the aims of governance to be met. Hence, it is not a surprise that the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) has embarked on a review of India’s statistical system, as reported by Mint on Wednesday. The initiative is based on a paper prepared by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister. At a basic level, some data dissonance is driven by a long delay in this decade’s coviddisrupted census, with projections by global agencies taken as the basis for news of our population having exceeded China’s, rather than a recent headcount of our own—a figure from which other numbers could be derived more reliably. Since output-per-head is a critical variable that tracks people’s economic well-being, we need accuracy on the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) too. As any GDP estimate is formulaic, with its feedstock taken from multiple sources, it is subject to input-quality hazards. The government’s 2015 GDP update— and adoption of the 2011-12 base series—was trailed by criticism, some of it over how closely our informal sector was being captured, with proxy data alleged to be vastly exaggerating its output. This critique grew sharp as expert views diverged over the impact of a currency switch in 2016 on cash-reliant businesses, and it has caught fresh wind from today’s debate over a V-versus-K shaped recovery from the pandemic. Annual GDP numbers are also prone to a confidence loss on account of revisions that can stretch for three years; so, apart from a relook at how we measure national income, faster data clarity would help, while the GDP deflator used to convert nominal data into inflation-adjusted numbers may call for a tweak to better reflect rising costs across the board. This would mean a look at our price indices, with a producer price index under due consideration. Other metrics, surveys and dashboards will be put to scrutiny too. As continuity on basic trackers would permit cleaner comparisons with the past, sharp snap-offs from old records are best minimized. Even estimates of poverty have been riddled with controversy. Recall how leaked findings of a National Sample Survey on consumption had fanned suspicions of an adversity cover-up half a decade ago. Official numbers have seen an upswell of sceptics on other counts too. To secure the credibility of future revisions, the system demands impeccable transparency. The efficacy of governance eventually rests on the clarity we obtain on varied aspects of progress. For top-level leadership, a clear view of reality is crucial (and optical illusions risky). All said, a sound statistical apparatus is a must, and that’s a function of its autonomy. ne year after the Hindenburg Report on Adani, let’s take stock of its impact. A broad view suggests the business group is unaffected, as almost all its shares are nearly back to their pre-report prices, indicating that the drop was a knee-jerk reaction. Last year’s reaction was not purely on account of the report’s revelations. Money was made overseas by gaming our market. A target was easily found by identifying vulnerability, or how hard a hit one could cause. However, business wise, Adani was not vulnerable, since almost all firms were performers; hence a trigger was missing. What was needed to hurt its shares were voices that gave the report the status of gospel truth. In times of political allegations and counter-allegations of crony capitalism, the Adani Group became the choice for a killing to be made by short-selling, given its stocks’ potential downside. In normal course, such a report would not have made much impact, as analysts would have concluded that the report had nothing new; it chronicled a one-sided negative narrative as old as a decade. So an orchestra was needed that was readily available in the political opposition looking for ammunition against the government. The timing was perfect, given the Adani public offer in the budget run-up, but the orchestra created cacophony. It did not hurt the government, but the wrong target: our New Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Kolkata, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, Chandigarh*, Pune* www.livemint.com Saturday, January 25, 2014 Vol.8 `10.00 in DelhiNCR/`11.00 outside DelhiNCR No.22 12 16 PAGES + 20 PAGES LOUNGE The trick is to fail small, says Gururaj Deshpande >4 MINT METRIC Q&A: NATION: Firms allowed mining rights in Saranda forests to face scrutiny >5 MEDIA: Pitroda panel seeks autonomy for Prasar Bharati >5 INTERNATIONAL: Brazil’s Rousseff tries to win over jittery investors >12 CONTENT PARTNER SENSEX 21,133.56 æ 240.10 NIFTY 6,266.75 æ 78.90 QUALITY ISSUES USFDA bans Ranbaxy’s Toansa plant FDA says Ranbaxy can’t produce or distribute drug ingredients from the facility for the US market; shares plunge B Y V IDYA K RISHNAN B LOOMBERG ························· & NEW DELHI/WASHINGTON DC U S regulators have said Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd can’t produce or distribute drug ingredients from its Toansa factory in Punjab for the US market. With this, all the four plants of the pharma company, now a part of Japan’s Daiichi Sankyo Co. Ltd, have been placed under a ban by the US food and drug administration (FDA). FDA earlier banned products from the firm’s plants in Paonta Sahib (Himachal Pradesh), Dewas (Madhya Pradesh) and Mohali (Punjab) as part of a consent decree designed to ensure compliance with good manufacturing practices. Ranbaxy agreed in May to pay $500 million to resolve fraud allegations made in a whistle-blower’s lawsuit and federal criminal charges that the company sold adulterated drugs while lying about it to US regulators. The company was also fined €10.3 million by European antitrust watchdog in June 2013 for delaying the launch of an inexpensive generic antidepressant in the European market. Shares of Ranbaxy fell by as much as 19.54% to `335.65 on BSE on Friday, while the benchmark Sensex declined 1.12% to 21,133.56 points. Daiichi Sankyo also fell the most in four months in Tokyo trading after FDA’s order. It dropped 5.8% to 1,791 yen before closing at 1,780 yen on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). Japan’s benchmark Topix lost 1.3%. An FDA inspection of Ranbaxy’s Toansa facility found that workers retested drug products to produce acceptable findings after the items originally failed analytical test- NOTE TO READERS The fourpage Media Marketing Initiative being carried as a supplement with today’s edition is the equivalent of a paid for advertisement, and no Mint journalists were involved in creating it. Readers would do well to treat it as an advertisement. Mint is also available for R14.50 with Hindustan Times in Delhi-NCR only ing. The inspection of the factory concluded on 11 January, FDA said in a statement. “We are taking swift action to prevent substandard quality products from reaching US consumers,” Carol Bennett, acting director of the office of compliance in FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, said in the statement. “Ranbaxy is disappointed with the recent FDA action and would like to apologize to all its stakeholders for the inconvenience caused by the suspension of shipment,” Ranbaxy’s CEO and managing director Arun Sawhney said in a statement. “This development is clearly unacceptable and an appropriate management action will be taken upon completion of the internal investigation.” The Toansa plant makes 6070% of Ranbaxy’s active pharmaceutical ingredients, which are the drug components it sells to manufacturers, said Sarabjit Kour Nangra, analyst at Angel Broking in Mumbai. “On a best case scenario, where we assume the company’s US business will be disturbed only during FY2014, and on account of its US sales being affected only 5-15% in FY2015, the stock will have a downside of around 10-15% from these levels and hence any long-term investor should enter the stock at around `340,” Nangra said. “Thus we recommend a sell on the stock.” Products from the four Ranbaxy plants continue to be sold in the domestic market. India’s drug controller general G.N. Singh said Ranbaxy should not be judged by American standards. “We are yet to get specific details. My team is at work and once we have the feedback, we will approach Ranbaxy to clarify the findings,” he said. “However, it must be stated that every country has different measures and we cannot judge Ranbaxy by the standards set up by the American drug regulator.” FDA said it’s investigating potential drug shortages that may result from the ban. Ranbaxy must hire a third party to inspect the Toansa plant and certify to FDA that its methods meet manufacturing standards. Daiichi Sankyo, which holds about 64% of Ranbaxy, is checking details with the Indian firm, the Tokyo-based parent said in a statement to TSE. vidya.k@livemint.com ALSO SEE > Indian pharma firms cannot be judged by US standards, says G.N. Singh >P3 DOLLAR `62.68 Æ `0.75 EURO `86.01 Æ `1.58 HOLDING GROUND A substantial improvement in the current account deficit and the $34 billion that came in through foreign currency non-repatriable deposits have helped the Indian currency hold its own against the dollar. Since September, the rupee has stabilized against the dollar compared with other emerging market currencies that are sharply depreciating against the greenback, according to Credit Suisse. See Page 3 Several emerging market currencies have weakened significantly (percentage change over three months till 24 January) -24.51% -14.96% -12.24% -9.53% -8.63% -8.46% -8.43% -7.87% -7.36% -5.8% -5.27% -5.2% -5.18% -5.02% -3.82% -3.32% -2.93% -1.94% -1.79% -1.48% -1.1% -1.09% -0.83% -0.38% -0.29% -0.11% Argentine peso Turkish lira South African rand Australian dollar Brazilian real Indonesian rupiah Chilean peso Russian rouble Czech koruna Canadian dollar Thai baht Hungarian forint Malaysian ringgit Japanese yen Mexican peso Singapore dollar Taiwanese dollar Indian rupee South Korean won Polish zloty Nigerian naira New Zealand dollar Euro Swiss franc Kuwaiti dinar Hong Kong dollar Chinese renminbi Israeli shekel Pakistani rupee British pound -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0.55% 0.89% 0.97% 1.85% 0% 5% Source: Mint research, Bloomberg PARAS JAIN/MINT GOLD `29,900 Æ `125 & A NUJA NEW DELHI T he Congress party, which leads the ruling coalition, seems to have shifted its focus for the 2014 election campaign from the aam aadmi (common man) to inclusive power and progress to the people. The party’s advertisement campaign, which was launched on Friday, carries the tagline main nahin, hum (it’s not me, it’s us). The commercial takes a cue from Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi’s 17 January speech at the All India Congress Committee (AICC) meeting, where he spoke against the personality-driven campaign of the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has selected Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate for the general election due by May. The half-page advertisement in all major newspapers shows Gandhi at the centre flanked by nine people from different communities and prominently features the slogan Har Haath Shakti, Har Haath Tarakki Japanese PM Abe’s India visit to be closely watched by China HARUYOSHI YAMAGUCHI/BLOOMBERG B Y E LIZABETH R OCHE elizabeth.r@livemint.com ························· NEW DELHI I Key visit: Shinzo Abe, on his second visit to India, is the chief guest at the country’s Republic Day parade on Sunday. region long considered China’s backyard and upgrading its ties with them. China has maritime disputes with a number of countries in South-East Asia, including the Philippines and Vietnam. Abe, who was elected to office in December 2012, is visiting India at a time when ties between Asia’s top two economies are strained over a dispute over islands in the East China Sea. Both claim the islands known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China. In November, China tried to establish its authority over the islands by demanding that all aircraft flying in the region market currencies tumble against the dollar—the Argentine peso, the South African rand and the Turkish lira. Their hammering is perhaps a warning sign that the effects of the taper of quantitative easing in the US may not be as benign as many hope. The action in the currency markets should bring back harsh memories of what happened in the middle of 2013. Several emerging market currencies were under pressure. The rupee was one of them. It is too early to say that the Indian currency is in safer territory right now—but it is surely a positive sign that the rupee has been stable this week. The authorities deserve credit for learning the lessons of last year. The government took steps that helped shrink the current account deficit. The Reserve Bank of India rebuilt its reserves by offering banks an attractive swap deal for dollar deposits. The rupee may not yet be impregnable, but the defences look stronger this time around. TURN TO PAGE 2® TERRITORIAL TENSIONS ndia is getting ready to host Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who arrives on Saturday on a three-day visit, a development expected to be closely watched by China given the spike in tensions over a territorial dispute between Asia’s top two economies. Abe, on his second visit to India, is the chief guest at India’s Republic Day parade on Sunday. On Saturday, India and Japan will hold their annual summit meeting, a tradition in place for over a decade and a mark of the India-Japan strategic and global partnership. The Japanese Prime Minister is the fourth dignitary from the region to be invited as the chief guest at India’s Republic Day parade that showcases India’s military might and cultural diversity. Previous guests include South Korean President Lee Myung-bak in 2010, Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in 2011 and Thailand’s Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra in 2012— a signal that India is seriously engaging the countries in the OIL $106.79 æ $0.79 QUICK EDIT ‘Aam aadmi’ Currency missing from Congress’s 2014 tremors he past few days have poll campaign Tseen three emerging B Y L IZ M ATHEW ························· obey its rules or face “emergency defensive measures”—a move that upset many countries in the region including Japan. Japan’s response was to frame the country’s first-ever national security strategy that calls for a more proactive approach to security despite Japan’s post-World War II pacifist constitution. And earlier this week, Abe upped the ante when he said that current relations between Japan and China were not unlike the ties between Britain and Germany in 1914. But economic interdependence was not enough to prevent World War I, Abe said, according to a and Adani that were either false or without reasonable grounds were echoed, even as critics ignored the voices of the SBI chief, LIC leadership and government officials, among others. That Indian authorities were relied upon less by critics than a little known entity points to an agenda. Repeated negative statements caused panic and induced many ordinary investors to sell their Adani shares out of fear, although they were never the intended target. A class action case could be launched by investors who lost out against those who took the report as gospel truth, which the SC cautioned again, and used it as ammunition. An ambitious lawyer who wishes to help can take up this challenge and file such a suit. Further, recourse could be sought to PFUTP Regulations, and in case these cannot be applied, then there may be a case for amendments to be made. Even if investors who sold off their holdings in fear can be compensated, what about those who did not pay their LIC premiums fearing that India’s top insurance company will go bust? And then there are also job aspirants who lost opportunities because Adani cooled off on the group’s business expansion. Despite all-round development, we are still a society where the destiny of the poor depends to a significant extent on what powerful people decide. Yet, we have not been able to institutionalize accountability of the level a country like ours requires. A nebulous group that calls itself ‘civil society’ seems to move a large number of PILs and other legal petitions. It is unclear why this is so, as there is no legal provision under which they have rights that are superior to those of other citizens. There is therefore an urgent need to relook at the PIL route, which seems to end up as a channel to settle scores and gain media limelight. The SC could study PILs filed and how many really served the public interest. Also, how many PILs failed and who their most prolific filers are. report in The New York Times. A sign that Abe’s visit to India had caught China’s attention came with two recent articles in Indian newspapers by China’s ambassador to India, Wei Wei, earlier this month, which spoke of growing IndiaChina ties and recalled Japan’s role in World War II. “The Chinese are wary of what India’s views may be on the subjects between China and Japan. Countries like South Korea and Japan are looking at India as a regional player,” said a person close to the developments, who did not want to be named. That tensions with China would be on the agenda of talks between the Indian and Japanese prime ministers was clear with Indian foreign ministry spokesman Syed Akbaruddin on Thursday telling reporters that India and Japan are expected to review all aspects of their wide-ranging bilateral relationship and “also discuss regional issues”. India has its own set of problems with the rising giant China that is viewed by many countries in the region and beyond as unpredictable. For India, the biggest irritant bedevilling ties is the unresolved border issue dating back to the brief, but bitter 1962 war between India and China. Besides strategic issues, other issues that are expected to come up for discussion are increased Japanese investment by Bibek Debroy Delhi High Court did mind A man who is colour blind Driving a DTC bus. One can understand the fuss. For 3 years, he was so assigned. TURN TO PAGE 3® THEIR VIEW Eight years of Startup India: Is it a runaway success? M. Muneer S is co-founder of the non-profit Medici Institute for Innovation. tartup India began on 16 January 2016, and by 2018, claimed itself as a huge success for having reached an arbitrary mark of 10,000 firms registered under it. But then, that was a public-relations byte. Eight years on, the jury is still out. Yes, India has emerged as the world’s third largest ecosystem for startups—with over 112,000 of them across 763 districts recognized by the commere ministry’s department for promotion of industry and internal trade (DPIIT). In a country of 1.4 billion plus, however, an absolute number can’t be a success measure. Such an assessment of a startup ecosystem must take into consideration many facets. As expectations go, a thriving startup ecosystem should drive innovation, economic growth and job creation. To assess its health and success, several key metrics are commonly used that provide us insights into the vibrancy, sustainability and growth potential within the ecosystem. Here are some of the primary metrics that objectively measure success: First is the number of startups: The total count of new businesses is a basic metric. A higher number typically indicates a more dynamic and vibrant ecosystem, so this data can serve a useful purpose. For some standardization to compare it with an ecosystem like Silicon Valley in the US, we should track properly defined startups as a proportion of total legacy enterprises. As Startup India has encouraged startup formation by providing support, mentorship and incentives for entrepreneurs to launch new businesses, thus complementing the Atal Innovation Mission designed to set up incubators and accelerators across the country, our ratio would have improved in recent years. Next is funding and investment: The amount available to startups is a critical metric. Numbers like total venture capital (VC) funding, the number of VC firms and the average funding round size are standard. Higher levels of investment indicate investor confidence. If early-stage funding gets missed by this metric, though, it could mislead. Finland’s innovation success is partly attributable to easy access to early-stage funds, as incubators had investors watching. On VC funding quantity, Silicon Valley consistently and famously ranks high. A good ecosystem attracts VC firms and angel investors by creating investor-friendly policies, showcasing successful exits and promoting a culture of innovation. Startup India has not yet been able to align all government departments and ministries to drive this. Taxation is still a sore issue with angel investors. Third is the startup survival rate. The proportion of startups that successfully navigate their critical early years and continue to operate is a key metric. A high survival rate is indicative of a supportive ecosystem. In the US, around 80% of startups survive their first year. Most fail by their fifth year and many more by their tenth. Tracking this score carefully can reduce disputes over Startup India’s results and help develop support programmes for early-stage startups and others. Startup India may need to offer more mentoring as well as access to capital and markets, like the Finnish government has done. The fourth metric is job creation. The number of jobs created by startups in the ecosystem is a key way to assess its broad economic impact. Startups are often significant drivers of job growth. High-performing ecosystems tend to witness fast expanding employment. Silicon Valley has a record of substantial job growth. In India, since 2017, recognized startups have created only about a million direct jobs, which is only a small fraction of total jobs. Note that India’s new job seekers number in the millions. Startup India, while monitoring this, could have encouraged the growth of startups through initiatives that support job creation, such as workforce development programmes and incentives for startups that hire locally. Fifth is access to talent. The availability of a skilled and diverse talent pool, including engineers, designers and business professionals, is critical for startup growth. Monitoring the number of universities, job openings and quality of the education system can help assess this aspect. From that perspective, India has a major advantage. Successful ecosystems have a deep pool of skilled professionals and graduates from top We should adopt a more comprehensive set of measures to track how well this vital scheme is doing universities. Silicon Valley benefits from the presence of Stanford and other prestigious institutions. Startup India has collaborated with educational institutions for incubators, but should work closer with them to guide course development, create more support programmes and also foster an open culture that attracts talent from around the world. Other readings to check the health of a startup ecosystem include the following: One, the number of successful investor exits, including via acquisitions and initial public offers, and overall value creation. Two, the count of patents granted to startups and the measurable level of innovation within the ecosystem. Three, the presence of support structures like incubators, accelerators, co-working spaces and startup conclaves that can add to the ecosystem’s vitality. Finland’s Slush became such a huge fund-raising event with over $2 billion in commitments. Four, the ease of starting a new business and running it, taxation systems and the regulatory environment for startups, as these significantly impact an ecosystem’s success. Fifth, the cost of living, quality of life and overall attractiveness of a locality, which could include an area’s startup density. All need attention for eventual success. VIEWS LIVEMINT.COM THursDay, 25 JaNuary 2024 New DeLHi GUEST VIEW 15 M I N T C U R AT O R India’s DPI can help build a tech ecosystem that the world trusts Luxury behemoth LVMH may be worth more if it’s carved up Spitting constituents can unlock value but its boss might not listen Its design mitigates risks from a tech cold war and enables democracies to harness the gains of technological advancement ISTOCKPHOTO ANDREA FELSTED is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering consumer goods and the retail industry. ARVIND GUPTA & AAKASH GUGLANI are, respectively, an adjunct professor of data and digital economy and head, Digital India Foundation; and policy manager, Digital India Foundation W T here is global consensus that the Fourth Industrial Revolution has ushered in a new era. At discussions of the World Economic Forum, Davos, most focused on artificial intelligence (AI) and supply chain disruptions. At the heart of these discussions are three critical transitions: the AI and machine learning (ML) revolution, green energy transition and supply chain diversification. These transitions have not only redefined the technological landscape, but have become central to the global geopolitical chessboard, influencing alliances, rivalries and power dynamics. As we step into 2024, the world is witnessing a complex interplay of nations vying for dominance in AI and other emerging technologies. The initial salvo in this technological Cold War was China’s systematic weaponization of technology, blending state-backed initiatives with corporate endeavours, which sought to turn technical dominance into a geopolitical tool. China’s assertive use of telecom hardware, especially its 5G deployment, for geopolitical influence prompted democratic nations to reassess their Chinese dependency for critical infrastructure. The deployment of technology as a strategic weapon had raised alarms over data security, privacy and surveillance. Indian policymakers were quick to grasp this conundrum. Way back in 2020, India led the way by banning Chinese technology applications over concerns of data security and weaponization of critical infrastructure. The landscape shifted with the outbreak of the covid pandemic, causing seismic shocks to supply chains, particularly in the semiconductor industry. As the backbone of modern technology, semiconductors are pivotal for AI deployment, further complicating the geopolitical scenario. Recognizing the weaponization of technology and strategic importance of high-end chips and AI-led economic development, democracies began forging new partnerships with trusted partners. They diversified and secured supply chains to address challenges in semiconductor research, 5G development and electronics manufacturing. Trust-based partnerships: In the face of these challenges, democracies have come together to build strategic alliances that transcend traditional geopolitical boundaries and re-emphasize trust in technology. The Quad, comprising the US, India, Japan and Australia, came up with ‘Principles on Critical and Emerging Technology Standards’ to set standards and ensure the secure deployment of advanced technologies. The EU’s AI Act, UK’s AI Safety Summit and White House’s AI executive order are all global policy initiatives to regulate the development of AI for responsible ends. On supply chain security, the EU’s $17 billion, US’s $52.7 billion and India’s $10 billion worth of subsidies aimed at strengthening semiconductor manufacturing should ensure that the world’s semiconductor supply chain straddles diverse geopolitical boundaries. India has also strategically engaged with multiple partners for supply chain diversification. Through the EU-India Trade and Technology Council (TTC) with the EU, the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) with the US, and the Japan-India Semiconductor Supply Chain Partnership with Japan, a focus has been placed on trustworthy AI, 5G and Internet of Things standardization, as well as semiconductor research and capacity building, especially STEM education and digital public infrastructure (DPI). A collaborative approach that can tackle the competition for technological dominance is to build global DPI that could prevent the systematic weaponization and monopolization of new technology development and deployment. Digital public infrastructure: Adopt a global technology deployment plan: India’s DPI strategy, which won G20 endorsement in 2023, and presidency of the Global Partnership of AI summit in New Delhi reflect a commitment to foster a global environment of trust in technology. The country’s strategy aims to build a robust multi-stakeholder digital foundation that encompasses technology standards, open innovation and data governance, and also to secure interoperable communication networks for low- or middle-income countries, especially through the One Future Alliance for deploying DPI. India’s Bhashini platform is deploying AI to build the next stage of DPI for natural language processing. This model would be available for the rest of the Global South to adopt and shows the potential of harnessing responsible AI for the common good. India’s strategy aligns not only with global imperatives, but also with its national interests. The emphasis on fostering a secure and trustbased DPI ecosystem serves as a catalyst for the emergence of a robust startup environment and encourages R&D initiatives. The collaborative design of DPI not only mitigates risks associated with a technology cold war, but also fosters an environment where democracies can make the most of technology advancements. In doing so, they should aim to isolate distrusted tech players from the international ecosystem, safeguarding national interests, while contributing to a global framework of responsible technology governance. As we navigate the intricate geopolitics of technology in 2024, the Fourth Industrial Revolution’s three key transitions—the AI and ML revolution, energy transition and supply chain diversification—have been reshaping the global landscape. Challenges posed by Chinese weaponization of technology, semiconductor supply-chain disruptions and evolving patterns of AI deployment have spurred democracies to forge new partnerships and strategies. The emergence of strategic partnerships reflects a collective effort to secure a technology future characterized by resilience and high ethical standards. In this dynamic environment, India’s DPI approach provides the world a blueprint for a multi-stakeholder, trustworthy, safe, frugal and inclusive global ecosystem. hen Bernard Arnault presents LVMH’s annual earnings on Thursday, investors and analysts will be hanging on to his every word as they try to decipher the direction of top-end demand. Yet, LVMH is being penalized by shareholders for its disparate collection of businesses. Breaking up the behemoth could release significant value for investors. It might, incidentally, help solve the looming succession issue as founder and CEO Arnault comes closer to handing over the reins to the next generation. LVMH suffers from a conglomerate discount, because not only does it include its two biggest brands, Louis Vuitton and Dior, but it also has watches and jewellery, cosmetics, wines and spirits, duty-free retailing and hospitality. Shares in LVMH trade on about 16 times this year’s estimated earnings before interest and tax, less than half of Hermes International SCA’s 34 times. Some discount to Hermes is warranted. The Birkin bag maker can, in effect, control demand for its iconic products. Meanwhile, LVMH’s valuation could also reflect concerns that its scale means there’s less room to grow and that Dior is decelerating after a remarkable run. Nevertheless, the market mark-down looks harsh. After all, Louis Vuitton is expected to generate €12.3 billion ($13.4 billion) of operating profit this year, an impressive 51.8% of sales, according to HSBC Holdings estimates. But even on the simplest break-up valuation, the rationale for a split is compelling. For example, by putting Louis Vuitton and Dior on a multiple closer to that of Hermes than the rest of the fashion and leather-goods sector, these brands could be worth as much as the whole group, which currently has an enterprise value of about €360 billion. Luxury goods groups don’t do ‘buy one, get one free’ deals. But in effect that’s what LVMH investors are getting. The other fashion and leather-goods houses within the LVMH stable, such as Loewe, Fendi and Celine, are being thrown in for nothing, as well as beauty retailer Sephora, jewelers Tiffany and Bulgari, and wines and spirits. That looks like a good reason to explore a separation. Questions around LVMH’s structure need to be driven primarily by valuation. But dismantling the group might also help avoid potential pitfalls on succession. Arnault turns 75 in March, and all of his five children have senior roles within the business. Eventually, he will have to decide whether to pick one to be CEO or divide the Bernard Arnault has tightened family control over LVMH AP responsibilities between them. Handing the reins over to an outsider looks unlikely, though he could appoint a non-family member as CEO until one of the next generation is ready to take over. Of course, no way of cleaving apart LVMH would be perfect. It could be split into four or five businesses, depending on whether Sephora continues to sit within a retail division or this unit is combined into an enlarged cosmetics and fragrance company, including brands such as Parfums Christian Dior, Guerlain and Fenty Beauty. There would also be some additional costs from each arm having to support its own central functions and head office. The individual businesses might have less clout than the behemoth, especially when it comes to buying ad space, securing the best store locations, digital marketing and recruiting top talent. But synergies between luxury brands are relatively few. And an independent fashion and leathergoods business would still dwarf rivals. The biggest question is whether Arnault senior would really take an axe to the empire he has spent 40 years building. He has been taking steps to keep it together. In 2022, he orchestrated raising the age limit for his roles by five years to 80. He has also tightened the family’s grip, restructuring its holding company, Agache SE, into a limited partnership, with the patriarch as managing partner and share capital held equally by five children. But the debate will only intensify if the conglomerate discount remains—right now, luxury valuations are also depressed by slowing demand after the extraordinary boom of the past three years—and as we move closer to a decision on succession. Alternatively, a strategic shift could force it onto the agenda. A merger with Chanel might necessitate the separation of the enlarged fashion and leather-goods unit. Meanwhile, Diageo owns 34% of LVMH’s wines and spirits division. The British company acquiring the remainder has long been seen as a possibility. Whether LVMH is more valuable together or split into its constituent parts is more of a PowerPoint idea for now. The company’s scale and the family’s control make a shareholder activist intervention unlikely. But for investors, it’s a conversation that needs to be had. ©BLOOMBERG MY VIEW | BehAvIOur By BrAIn Let us not use behavioural science as an umbrella term BIJU DOMINIC T is chief evangelist, Fractal Analytics, and chairman, FinalMile Consulting. ill the turn of the century, the term ‘psychology’ connoted any serious study of human behaviour. Maybe it is due to the importance that Behavioural Economics gained since Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2002 that the term to connote the systematic study of human behaviour has lately changed from ‘psychology’ to ‘Behavioural Science.’ I see many an organization using this term to denote its focus on the study of human behaviour. For some, the addition of the word ‘science’ adds heft to their attempts to bring scientific rigour to the study. In the past, I have often written in this column about the humongous failure rate in managing human behaviour. This rate in marketing and organizational behaviour management is placed at over 70%. Most of us know that when the covid pandemic hit, the healthcare fraternity pulled off a wonder by inventing a vaccine—which usually takes 8-10 years—in just six months. But human behaviour experts were clueless on how to motivate ordinary citizens to take that lifesaving vaccination. Given the huge failure rate in human behaviour management, much needs to be done to improve our understanding of human behaviour. There are multiple theories to explain human behaviour. Theories like Behaviourism, Psychoanalysis and others by William James, Wilhelm Wundt and Carl Jung date back to the late 19th century. In the 20th century, other theories came up; think of Cognitive Science,Transactional Analysis and Maslow’s Theory of Motivation. As V.S. Ramachandran, professor of psychology and director of the Center for Brain and Cognition, University of California, says: “There are as many psychology theories as there are psychologists.” The study of human behaviour is not just about how individuals behave. To study the complexities of social behaviour and better understand behaviour, learnings are taken from the fields of classical economics, sociology and anthropology, and these days, also from Behavioural Economics, Neuroscience and Data Analytics. Progress is not just about inventing something. It is also about discarding things that are considered outdated and replacing them with the new. The field of human behaviour has a peculiar problem. We don’t discard anything that is old. Even as new knowledge comes in, we still tend to cling on to outdated notions and thinking. While evaluating various theories of human behaviour, one should be clear as to which theory or which part of it works or which does not work. For example, when it came to explaining human behaviour, the Psychoanalysis theory put forward by Sigmund Freud was the toast of the town in the early 20th century. But today, with the creation of modern tools to understand the workings of the human brain, it is known that many of Freud’s assumptions about human behaviour were fundamentally flawed. It is also important to specify which theory is being used. One can, for example, use Freud’s Psychoanalysis theory to explain behavioural processes occurring below the thresholds of consciousness, or one could use learnings from the field of Cognitive Neuroscience to explain the non-consciousness processes that guide human behaviour. Both explanations would be completely different. While the former has no scientific basis, however, the latter is based on empirical experiments. With advancements in our understanding of the human brain—the source of all human thoughts and actions—our broad grasp of human behaviour has changed fundamentally. The conscious, rational universe of human behaviour has been replaced by a paradigm of human behaviour that goes almost totally by non-conscious and emotional inner motives. But the umbrella term ‘Behavioural Science’ does not capture this paradigm shift in the world’s knowledge base. In fact, the biggest irony today in the study of human behaviour is that multiple theories of it, old and new, are all combined under one catch-all term: ‘Behavioural Science.’ The limitations of past theories are unlikely to be called out if the study of human behaviour is placed under one banner term. At the same time, A catch-all term holds back the process of revising our knowledge as this vital field makes advances the practitioners of new theories are not able to differentiate themselves from those using outdated theories. All other fields of study specify their areas of academic focus in the light of modern advancements. For example, the American Institute of Physics divides modern Physics into 10 major fields. So, instead of placing all studies under a common term, the discipline has fields that range from the Physics of Elementary Particles and Electromagnetism to AstroPhysics. Splitting a large field of study into various sub-fields allows one to understand the complexity of the subject and focus on each knowledge component of it. On a similar note, human behaviour professionals too should declare the specific knowledge areas they base their understanding of human behaviour on. Using a blanket-all term like Behavioural Science to connote all that is happening in the study of human behaviour lets outdated theories and practices conveniently hide their inadequacies behind that moniker. At the same time, it makes it harder for modern and more effective practices to stand out and be counted. As a term, ‘Behavioural Science’ is therefore doing a huge disservice to the critical cause of developing a better understanding of our behaviour. �� 13 �� The child will educate himself, your job is to provide the necessary opportunity to him and remove the obstacles in his path HYDERABAD INDIAN EXPRESS IS NOT AN INDUSTRY. IT IS A MISSION. — Ramnath Goenka RATNA FOR KARPOORI COULD BE A POLITICAL MASTERSTROKE BY BJP F ORMER Bihar Chief Minister Karpoori Thakur lived and breathed his principles. He rose from one of the most marginalised communities, was jailed for fighting the British during the freedom struggle, and joined post-independence politics to secure what he strongly espoused—equity and social justice for the most backward sections of society. Apart from being a respected socialist who laid the foundation of a structured reservation system for the backward classes, he imposed prohibition, championed the cause of education, and batted for regional languages as he did away with English as a compulsory subject in the school-leaving exam. The Centre’s decision to confer the Bharat Ratna on ‘Jan Nayak’ Thakur on his birth centenary is an apt tribute to a leader who had the courage to shun the greed and glamour of politics and lived within his modest means despite being chief minister twice. His was a creed that India lacks today. Giving the Jan Nayak the highest civilian award is also a form of recognising the most disadvantaged classes, for whom Thakur remained a voice till his demise in 1988. It was Thakur who, in his first stint as chief minister, constituted the Mungeri Lal Commission in 1970 and, in his second stint, implemented its recommendation of giving a layered 26 percent reservation to OBCs. That might have led to the fall of Thakur’s government, with upper caste sections up in arms against his decision. Now, months ahead of the general elections, the NDA government’s decision to honour him can be a weapon to neutralise the Congress’s attempts to own the cause through an aggressive promise of a caste census. It may have a ripple effect in the Hindi heartland, where Mandal and OBC politics remain among the most potent electoral factors. How it impacts the INDIA bloc is to be watched. Bihar’s current chief minister’s differences with the Congress are growing over the delay in seat-sharing talks and his relationship with the RJD remains uneasy. Meanwhile, Nitish Kumar has thanked Prime Minister Narendra Modi over nominating Thakur for the award. And after his recent meeting with Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar, rumours of Nitish returning to the NDA are flying thick and fast. Following in the wake of the mandir wave, awarding a champion of the backward classes the highest civilian award could be a political masterstroke by the BJP. THURSDAY W Q U I C K TA K E G FOR MORE SHIPS OF THESEUS REEK hero Theseus’s ship was famously taken apart to make many more ships. In a similar vein, Meena Mehta gave a fresh lease of life to many in her death. Her donated body was used after her death to save several lives. Her hands, for one, were transplanted on a Nangloi resident who had lost his in a train accident. While the number of single-organ donors has gone up in the country, the government says there were just 941 deceased donors in 2022, barely up from the 930 recorded in 2016. It is time more Indians wrote body donation after death into their wills or estate plans. � � T HERE is hardly a nation as beholden to and yet so vulnerable to its own geography as Pakistan. It has unnatural and contrived boundaries which have not emerged through a historical process, having been drawn one fine day and left at that. It hugely benefitted from its geostrategic location, prime among the reasons being its centricity with relation to five old civilisations that share borders with it, or are in near contiguity. The Indian civilisation, from which Pakistan has emerged, lies in the east. The Chinese civilisation, on which it relies so much, is to the northeast. There is the Central Asian civilisation to its north with the Wakhan Corridor separating the two. Then there is Iran—the ancient Persian civilisation, now the citadel of Shia Islam—to its west. The Arab civilisation exists just across the waters of the northwest Indian Ocean. It is the Arab culture that fascinates Pakistan the most, and it has attempted to project itself as a natural extension of the Arab people into South Asia. The latter because of its obsession with Islam, of which it aspires to be a flag-bearer, perceiving it has the wherewithal to lead it. Ironically, due to its proximity to all these regions which are civilisations in their own right, Pakistan enjoys an incredible level of strategic importance. Each has something to give it and much to take from it. The Arabs find that the only alignment for influence over the 72 million Muslims of Central Asia is through Pakistan, Shia Iran being a pariah and no friend; Afghanistan is too complex to handle. China’s access to the Indian Ocean’s crucial north-western portion lies through the alignment of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Gwadar port. India too would benefit immensely if it had access to the Central Asian Republics (CARs), something Pakistan has denied in the last 32 years. Iran has an ethnic group in common with Pakistan— the Baloch, who in Iran reside in the Sistan and Balochestan (Iranian spelling) province and in Pakistan in Baluchistan. The region is rich in minerals and is, therefore, targeted by separatists who wish to be away from the influence of both nations. Some 6 lakh Baloch also live in South Afghanistan. The borders all tend to be volatile and the degree of volatility appears to be increasing. We may start with J&K in India. Pakistan calls it disputed and lays claim on the entire territory on grounds of the majority faith in existence. Having made no headway in resolving the border with NEED TO BRACE AGAINST MORE HIMALAYAN QUAKES HEN Kiren Rijiju, the Union minister of earth sciences, told the Lok Sabha last December that there had been an increase in earthquakes in India between January and November 2023, experts wasted no time in questioning the possible causes. It was a fairly tough question to answer. But a few days later, a new study presented at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union attempted an answer. It pointed to the shocking effect of the tectonic shift that horizontally split the Indian Plate as it pushed into the Eurasian Plate at the geologically-significant speed of 2 mm a year. The split is not like that unfolding in East Africa, which is vertical and gradually giving birth to a new micro-continent. Here, it is like the top layer getting peeled off while the bottom layer of the crust is moving into the Earth’s mantle—like a block of cheese when pushed into a horizontally-held blade. This process has been at work over millions of years. It explains the rapidly increasing elevation of the Tibetan plateau and parts of the Eastern Himalayas. The Indian Plate pushing into the Eurasian Plate is not a revelation, but the top and bottom layers getting split horizontally has shocked geologists. This process is mostly likely behind the increasing frequency of earthquakes reported, especially in North and Northeast India, as a thinner top layer—100 km thick—is getting peeled. This must make the Indian government wake up to its huge responsibility of ensuring the safety of almost half its population that is dependent on the Himalayan rivers’ basin drainage. Attention must shift to the fragility of the Himalayan ecosystem, where hydro-power projects and tunnelling works are going on with the military and civil infrastructure in mind, while the possible catastrophic impact of the tectonic movements are being ignored. Realisation must dawn on the possible shifts in riparian paths, or rivers drying up due to massive earthquakes. There is an urgent need to promote earthquake-proof housing and structures, while adopting better earthquake management practices to minimise loss of life, property, forest cover, wildlife and the ecosystem. Tectonic shifts proceed over millions of years, but they cannot be stopped or wished away. It is time we braced ourselves against the catastrophes-in-waiting and at least started having their impacts minimised. 25 01 2024 Pakistan was handed its borders by a twist of history. But it has made them more vulnerable by stirring up trouble on multiple fronts at once HEMMED IN BY ITS KISMET AND FOLLIES Former Commander, Srinagar-based 15 Corps, now Chancellor, Central University of Kashmir LT GEN SYED ATA HASNAIN (RETD) SOURAV ROY India through war, Pakistan has chosen the most modern way of attempting to keep India militarily engaged—the use of ‘almost war’, a euphemism for hybrid proxy war, well short of conventional war. It is happy to keep the situation festering in the hope that circumstances will change or the majority population will rise in its favour. It has been a fond hope since Partition, but in none of the conflicts has this desire fructified. True to its character, it has failed to develop economically or socially even a region it considers disputed—Pakistan Occupied Kashmir or PoK. It stands a good chance of facing a situation of such economic and military asymmetry with its adversary that even fighting the ‘almost war’ may peter out. That is where the first of the dangers to Pakistan’s borders lies. Pakistan should feel gratified that the government of India does not get carried away by public pressure for the return of PoK to Indian control. The Indian government is mature to realise that patience in such situations is a virtue. Attempts in the early millennium to draw the international border along the Line of Control in an ‘as is where is’ mode to settle the boundary did not succeed. With nationalism on a high, this border has all the potential to erupt— ceasefire or no ceasefire. The borders with the Pamir region— the New ‘Great Game’ zone—have Central Asia, China and Afghanistan in proximi- ONE NATION, ONE ELECTION RISKS DEVOLVING TO ONE VOICE I N the grand spectacle of Indian politics, the discourse surrounding One Nation, One Election has taken centre-stage with former President Ram Nath Kovind inviting suggestions from the public on it till mid-January. The proposal would synchronise elections at the national and state levels. However, this political move comes with its constitutional challenges, potential erosion of the regional perspectives, and a hefty price tag that the government has to bear for its implementation. Constitutionally, the path to realising One Nation One Election demands an amendment to Articles 83(2) and 172(1) of the Constitution, since these provisions mention that elections are to be conducted every five years. Let’s picture this. If the winning political party loses a majority or the vote of confidence in the House and the opposition does not have the numbers to form a new government, then the people would be left with two rather undemocratic options to choose from since elections cannot be held anew. Further, Article 368 demands that a constitutional amendment would require a two-thirds majority in the House. However, recent trends of suspending dissenting members of parliament raise eyebrows that the amendment might slide through without the full strength of voices in the House. The financial burden that the government has to bear in implementing One Nation, One Election is the elephant in the room. With an estimated requirement of 25 Lakh electronic voting machines (EVMs) and an equal number of voter verified voter audit trails , the Election Commission finds itself with just 12 lakh EVMs.This made me question: can our country afford such a monumental expense merely to streamline its election cycles? Another key concern lies in the impact of India’s federal structure. If a no-confidence motion dissolves the central government, as seen in 1998, would it trigger a domino effect and dissolve the state legislatures as well? This raises doubts about the federal principles on which the Constitution is anchored. One Nation, One Election also threatens the strongholds of regional political parties. Parties like the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, All India Trinamool Congress, and Janata Dal (United) uphold the principle of addressing the regional concerns of their constituents. According to IDFC THAMIZHACHI THANGAPANDIAN Member of Lok Sabha and Standing Committee on IT & Communications data, there is a 77 percent chance that voters would cast their votes for the same political party at both the Centre and state if the elections were synchronised. The trend of choosing the same party for both state and the Centre goes back to 1999, when 68 percent voters chose the same party; the share was 77 percent in 2004, 76 percent in 2009 and 86 percent in 2014. EXPRESS 06 Swami Vivekananda The One Nation, One Election proposal faces big legal and financial tests. But the greatest risk is to the pluralistic nature of our democracy. As more people vote for the same party in state and national elections, regional concerns will be heard less Hence the One Nation, One Elections proposal risks muzzling or diluting the distinct regional voices in Indian politics. In a country defined by a pluralistic democracy, this push from the government concerns not only the federal structure—it can also reshape the nature of voter behaviour. As we delve deeper into the intricate fabric of our democratic ideals, a crucial question arises—who will address the potential social consequences that could arise in India where elections and social divisions are closely interconnected? Numerous experts have raised similar concerns and advocated for separate elections to mitigate the potential social repercussions. The rationale is that holding simultaneous elections may encourage political parties to concentrate on a singular narrative, often centred around issues such as religion, as a strategy to secure votes. On the other hand, if elections transpire at different intervals, there is a reduced likelihood of the political discourse becoming overly focused on one particular narrative, fostering a more nuanced approach and reflecting the varied concerns of citizens. In essence, the call for separate elections is rooted in safeguarding the democratic process from potential pitfalls that might arise when political campaigns are dominated by a singular narrative. The approach of conducting separate elections at the Centre and state levels seeks to preserve a balanced and inclusive discourse, allowing for a better understanding of the multifaceted social fabric, which is the backbone of our nation. The intricacies of India’s social landscape necessitate a careful examination of the potential consequences of One Nation, One Election on election dynamics. As a political representative of people’s voices and a vigilant citizen, it’s imperative to question whether this proposition signifies a political revolution or a political facade. In the journey of navigating the intricacies of the government’s proposal, it is essential to find an equilibrium between administrative efficiency and safeguarding democratic principles. The success of any political revolution lies in amplifying democratic values, fostering inclusivity, and upholding the principles of representation. So, let us approach the proposal of One Nation, One Election with a careful eye toward the potential implications on the core of our democratic values. In the words of Brazilian sociologist Fernando Henrique Cardoso, “Democracy is not just a question of having a vote. It consists of strengthening each citizen’s possibility and capacity to participate in the deliberations involved in the society.” As we navigate the complexities of One Nation, One Election, let’s ensure that this democratic experiment does not overshadow the diverse narratives that make our democracy truly beautiful. The strength of our democratic foundation lies in embracing the varied perspectives and acknowledging a multitude of voices. (Views are personal) (contact@ithamizhachi.com) ty. Hunting with the hounds and running with the hare is Pakistan’s policy here, fully in the knowledge that the dynamics of this region are unique. The Uyghur in Xinjiang are militant and regularly in transit to the CARs and the Northern Areas. As Islam’s flag-bearer, Pakistan should support them and oppose the Chinese efforts to curtail Islamic practices. However, it cannot do so by geopolitical compulsion, and therefore exposes itself to pulls and pressures of either side. On the other hand, it now has competition in the form of the Taliban-led Afghanistan, where no change in political dispensation is likely for many years. The Taliban as a force of diffusion has been actively involved in supporting Islamist groups in Central Asia and Xinjiang. It has kept the Chinese at an arm’s length on ideological issues, making the latter wary of the treatment of the Islamic people within China’s boundaries. The Taliban’s decision to up the ante on the Durand Line is to pressurise Pakistan in terms of the ambitions for Islamic leadership. It has cast its dice because it feels Pakistan does not have the moral right to leadership nor the capability due to the intense influence of both the US and China. The fight for obscurantist Islam will thus be led by the Taliban, as apparently manifest on Pakistan’s border. That leaves the question of Iran, which has no desire to activate another border away from that with its eastern Arab neighbours and Turkey. Its border with Pakistan and Afghanistan is ridden with issues which are in the eye of the storm at most times—narcotics, gun running and human smuggling, including the movement of transnational jihadists, many of whom are mercenary in outlook. The recent spat with Pakistan may be based upon strikes by Sunni Baloch radicals from Pakistan into Iran, but the larger issue is about being boxed in by a weather-based ally of the US who is always squeezing Iran. The domination of the waters of the north-western Indian Ocean by the Pakistan navy in partnership with the Chinese navy also cuts options for Iran in the Gulf of Oman, the entry into the Persian Gulf. The sea borders of Pakistan are therefore also active. Hemmed from all directions, Pakistan has to learn to optimally divide focus to each of these crucial lines and areas. Any of them can erupt to its detriment, as it has just learnt. (Views are personal) (atahasnain@gmail.com) Nurture students Ref: Lowering student stress with the help of peers (Jan 24). As a student, I recognise the importance of stress reduction both during exams and throughout schooling. Peer and teacher support are pivotal. Moreover, contemplating a shift in exam patterns towards a more holistic evaluation, rather than relying solely on high-stakes assessments, can foster a more nurturing educational system. Maria Jacob, Bengaluru Deserved honour Ref: Karpoori gets Bharat Ratna (Jan 24). Two-time Bihar chief minister Karpoori Thakur has been posthumously chosen for the country’s highest civilian award. He richly deserves the honour for his visionary leadership, besides leaving an indelible mark on the country’s socio-political fabric. R Sivakumar, Chennai Systemic fault Ref: See green and go (Jan 24). It’s horrific that it took more than 12 years to pin down Delhi Transport Corporation for appointing 100 colour-blind drivers. It’s well known that presenting a doctor’s certificate at any state regional transport office (RTO) for obtaining a driving licence is farce. The doctor is available on the RTO premises to assist. It’s the system that’s at fault. K Nehru Patnaik, Visakhapatnam Extraordinary zeal Ref: Trip no. 34, Daphne, 91 still hooked to Kerala (Jan 24). Daphne Clara Richards’s zest for life and her never-say-die attitude towards travel is something extraordinary. She exemplifies the expression “Never say never” in Charles Dickens’s Pickwick Paper s. C G Kuriakose, Kothamangalam Famine risk Ref: Israel loses 24 soldiers in deadliest day of Gaza war (Jan 24). The recent attack by Hamas, which claimed the lives of 24 Israeli soldiers, is putting the war in a vicious cycle. The lives of the citizens of Gaza are put in peril each day. There is a risk of famine as per prediction of UN’s World Food Programme. R Sampath, email Costlier rides Tamil Nadu transport minister’s directive asking the police to take strict action against Omni buses bound for the southern districts is disappointing. We thought the state government would heed the requests of the common man. One will have to spend an extra Rs 300-500 to reach the new Kelambakkam bus terminus. Alas, this government seems to favour only the fleecing auto and taxi drivers. N Mahadevan, email THE NEW INDIAN EXPRESS Chairman of the Board: Manoj Kumar Sonthalia Editor: Santwana Bhattacharya Resident Editor (Telangana) : T Kalyan Chakravarthy* Printed and Published by R K Jhunjhunwala on behalf of Express Publications (Madurai) Private Ltd., at H.No.6-3-1113/1, B.S.Makta Lane, Somajiguda, Near Grand Kakatiya Hotel, Punjagutta, Hyderabad – 500 016 and printed by him at Sakshi Press, Plot No.D-75 & E-52, Industrial Estate (APIE), Balanagar, Medchal-Malkajgiri District, Telangana. Hyderabad: Vol. 48, No. 21. RNI Reg. No. 32179/77. Phone: 040-23413908. * Responsible for selection of News under the PRB Act. Copyright: Express Publications (Madurai) Private Ltd., All rights reserved. Reproduction in any manner, electronic or otherwise, in whole or in part, without prior written permission is prohibited. HYDERABAD | THURSDAY | JANUARY 25, 2024 06 www.dailypioneer.com facebook.com/dailypioneer | @TheDailyPioneer | instagram.com/dailypioneer/ PAPER WITH PASSION Up, up and away! The Indian stock exchange overtakes Hong Kong's, securing fourth place globally I n what must come as happy news for its economy, India's stock exchange has surpassed Hong Kong's to become the fourth largest global equity market. This accomplishment underscores India's economic resilience and its growing significance in financial arena. The surge of India's stock exchange to this reputable position is due to a confluence of factors. Foremost among these is the comprehensive economic reforms in recent years. Measures such as the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the establishment of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) have created a business-friendly environment, fostering investor confidence. Simultaneously, India has witnessed a steady inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI), driven by initiatives like 'Make in India' and liberalised FDI norms. These efforts have positioned India as an attractive destination for global investors. Technological advancements have played a pivotal role in transforming the Indian stock market into a more accessible and efficient platform. The widespread adoption of online trading platforms, mobile applications and other technological innovations have democratised investment, expanding the investor base. India's stock market has exhibited resilience during global economic challenges, navigating the uncertainties brought about by the Covid19 pandemic. This ability to weather economic storms and rebound swiftly has reinforced investor confidence on both domestic and international fronts. The implications of India's stock exchange securing the fourth spot on the global stage are profound. This achievement is expected to attract increased foreign capital, stimulating economic growth, job creation and supporting infrastructure development. Furthermore, the higher global ranking enhances India's visibility and credibility as an investment destination. The thriving stock market has the potential to translate into capital appreciation for individuals and institutions, thereby potentially boosting consumer spending and overall economic activity. However, amid these positive developments, challenges such as market volatility, regulatory concerns and geopolitical factors must be accounted for. A responsive regulatory framework is crucial to ensuring the stability and integrity of financial markets. Unfortunately, many cases of insider trading and unscrupulous practices have come to light. The sad part is that SEBI, entrusted to safeguard investor interests and regulate the market, has often failed in controlling the frenzy which results in wiping away a sizeable amount of small investors' money. That is a concern to be addressed immediately and SEBI must be made more powerful to deal with unscrupulous brokers and entrepreneurs. Indeed, India's stock exchange securing the fourth position globally is a momentous achievement that reflects growing appeal for investors. As India continues to enact reforms, attract foreign investment, it is poised for sustained economic growth. Managing challenges proactively will be essential to ensuring the long-term stability and vibrancy of our markets. PICTALK Students in traditional Punjabi attire during the full dress rehearsal for the Republic Day Parade 2024, in Amritsar Bharat Ratna: Honouring the legacy of Jan Nayak The Bharat Ratna, conferred posthumously to Jan Nayak Karpoori Thakur, gives a fitting tribute to his work and ideals T he celebration of Jan Nayak Karpoori Thakur's birth centenary has been marked by a momentous announcement from the Indian government, bestowing upon him the prestigious Bharat Ratna, the highest civilian award in the nation. Renowned for his relentless dedication to reshaping social justice, Karpoori Thakur has left an indelible mark on the lives of millions. His remarkable journey, from the marginalized barber community to the pinnacle of political leadership, is a testament to his unwavering commitment to social reform. In the dynamic tapestry of Bihar's socialist movement, Karpoori Thakur's name resonated alongside stalwarts such as Ram Vilas Paswan, Sharad Yadav, and Chandrashekhar. Emerging from a disadvantaged background, he surmounted numerous obstacles to not only enhance his social standing but also to champion the cause of those on society's periphery. His enduring influence on the underprivileged persists, symbolizing mental fortitude for the backward society. The government's decision to posthumously honor Karpoori Thakur with the Bharat Ratna underscores the extraordinary legacy of this Bihar-born socialist leader. A statement from Rashtrapati Bhavan lauds him as a trailblazer of social justice and an inspirational figure in Indian politics. The award serves as a fitting tribute to his lifelong dedication to uplifting the deprived sections of society and his relentless pursuit of social justice. Karpoori Thakur's life was a testament to simplicity and social justice, pillars that defined his persona as the people's hero. From his unassuming lifestyle to his humility, he endeared himself to the common folk. Anecdotes abound, such as the incident with Chaudhary Charan Singh, where he refused personal gains even when offered a plot of land during his tenure as Chief Minister. In 1977, another instance showcased his simplicity when he joined party leaders in a torn kurta for a celebration in Patna. Despite offers for a new kurta, he JAY SHAH By creating an environment conducive to manufacturing, India can attract investments and become key player in the global manufacturing hub W ith the swift expansion of India’s manufacturing sector, the country is poised to become a leading global manufacturing force. Currently positioned among the top three preferred global manufacturing locations, India has the potential to boost its exports to an impressive USD one trillion by 2030. However, within the spectrum of various supply chains, the challenges and opportunities of Indian manufacturing are evident in the wooden pallet sector. To consolidate its position in the pallet industry, essential policy reforms are necessary for sustainable growth and global leadership. Indeed, critical policy changes are required for India to smoothly transition into a global manufacturing hub, ensuring enduring growth and competitiveness on the international stage. Infrastructure Development India needs to focus on developing robust infrastructure, including transportation, power, and telecommunications, to support the manufacturing sector. The government should invest in building modern industrial parks, logistics hubs, and efficient transportation networks to reduce manufacturing costs and improve competitiveness. Sustainable Manufacturing In the era of increasing environmental awareness, sustainable and eco-friendly manufacturing practices are becoming imperative. The government should encourage manufacturers to adopt green technologies and sustainable processes by providing incentives and enforcing regulations that promote environmental responsibility. This not only aligns with global trends but also enhances the reputation of Indian products in international markets. Simplified Regulations The regulatory environment in India is complex, and businesses face bureaucratic hurdles. Streamlining regulations and creating a more business- friendly environment will encourage investment and growth in the manufacturing sector. Implementing a singlewindow system for approvals, clearances, and licenses can facilitate ease of doing business. Skilled Labour Development India’s education system needs to adapt to the changing needs of the economy by providing relevant skills training. Addressing the shortage of skilled workers in the manufacturing sector is crucial for its growth. The government should focus on creating appropriate skill sets among the workforce to meet the demands of modern manufacturing. Government schemes The government has introduced Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes to promote domestic manufacturing and increase India’s share of global exports. These schemes encourage investments in manufacturing and provide incentives for various sectors, contributing to the growth of the manufacturing industry. Foreign Investment India's trade policies and foreign investment regulations chose to donate the money to the Chief Minister's Relief Fund, embodying his selfless nature. The Bharat Ratna announcement, made a day before his centenary, elevates Narendra Modi's standing among the Bihari and socialist public. Karpoori Thakur, a champion of social justice, envisioned a society where resources were equitably distributed, and opportunities were accessible to all, irrespective of social status. His political journey, beginning in the 1950s, saw him win every election, reflecting the trust bestowed upon him by the people. Serving as Chief Minister from 1970 to 1971 and later from 1977 to 1979, he aligned himself with the working class, laborers, and small farmers. As the Education Minister, he championed the abolition of English in matriculation exams and focused on improving education facilities for the underprivileged. Participating in the Quit India Movement as a youth, Karpoori Thakur remained unwavering during the Emergency, earning praise from leaders like JP, Dr. Ram Manohar Lohia, and Charan Singh. His pivotal role in strengthening affirmative action for backward classes, despite strong opposition, laid the foundation for a more inclusive society. Jan Nayak Karpoori Thakur, hailing from the most back- THE POSTHUMOUS CONFERRAL OF THE BHARAT RATNA UPON JAN NAYAK KARPOORI THAKUR STANDS AS A POIGNANT RECOGNITION OF A LEADER WHOSE LIFE WAS DEDICATED TO THE SERVICE OF THE MARGINALISED AND THE UPLIFTMENT OF THE DOWNTRODDEN ward section of society, stands as a beacon of inclusivity and a true people's hero, making the Bharat Ratna bestowed upon him a fitting tribute to his monumental contributions to Indian society. The recognition posthumously bestowed upon him not only honors his memory but also serves as an inspiration for future generations to continue the pursuit of social justice and equality. As India reflects on the life and legacy of this exceptional leader, it is a reminder that the struggle for a just society is an ongoing journey, and the ideals championed by Karpoori Thakur still remain relevant. The posthumous conferral of the Bharat Ratna upon Jan Nayak Karpoori Thakur stands as a poignant recognition of a leader whose life was dedicated to the service of the marginalized and the upliftment of the downtrodden. As we commemorate his birth centenary, this prestigious award serves as more than a tribute; it is a testament to the enduring impact of his vision for a just and inclusive society. Karpoori Thakur's legacy is multifaceted, embodying simplicity, humility, and an unwavering commitment to social justice. His journey from a humble background to the echelons of political leadership serves as an inspiration, proving that resilience and dedication can break through societal barriers. The government's decision to bestow the Bharat Ratna upon him is not merely a recognition of past achievements but a call to contemporary and future leaders to emulate his principles. In a time when the pursuit of social justice remains a critical imperative, Karpoori Thakur's life provides a roadmap for leaders to navigate the complexities of governance with integrity and compassion. As Narendra Modi's government makes this historic announcement, it resonates not only with the people of Bihar but with the entire nation. It underscores the importance of recognizing and celebrating leaders who prioritize the well-being of the most vulnerable in society. The Bharat Ratna for Karpoori Thakur is a bridge between the past and the present, connecting the ideals of a bygone era with the challenges and opportunities of today. In honouring Jan Nayak Karpoori Thakur, India acknowledges the pivotal role he played in shaping a more inclusive society and encourages a new generation of leaders to champion his ideals. As the nation pays tribute to this true people's hero, the Bharat Ratna becomes a symbol not only of recognition but also a call to action, urging us all to carry forward the torch of social justice and equality in our ongoing pursuit of a more just and compassionate India. (The writer is a senior journalist, views are personal) LETTERS TO THE EDITOR PTI Policy reforms needed to boost manufacturing RAJESH KUMAR SINGH play a significant role in attracting global manufacturers. The government should continue to focus on policies that promote domestic manufacturing, reduce import dependence, and encourage foreign investment in the manufacturing sector. Tax Reforms A competitive and stable tax regime is essential for attracting investment. India needs to rationalise its tax structure, ensuring that it is transparent and predictable. Reducing corporate tax rates, providing incentives for research and development, and promoting innovation through tax breaks will encourage manufacturing companies to invest and operate in India. Becoming a global manufacturing hub requires a comprehensive and coordinated effort from the Indian government, industry players, and other stakeholders. The success of these reforms will not only boost the economy but also create employment opportunities and enhance India's standing in the world of international trade and commerce. (The writer is an Industry expert, views are personal) BAIL PROCESS DELAYS Sir — Indian judiciary is known to move at a snail's pace. As much as bail is a matter of right it is equally important that the right is accorded expeditiously to individuals. In bail orders, there should not be undue delay in the orders of the court reaching the prison authorities. The Supreme Court has said that despite its repeated directives, High Courts are delaying adjudication of bail applications. With the exception of an intervening application, all bail matters have to be decided within two weeks of being filed and all anticipatory bail within six weeks, the top court has reiterated again recently. This order came after an anticipatory bail application was kept pending for judgment for one year by a High Court after it was initially heard. Though bail is a temporary privilege by definition, the nonuniformity in its interpretation has, sometimes, led to chaos. Despite the sheer number of bail applications filed before them, High Courts should evolve a mechanism for their speedy disposal because Section 436 of the Code of Criminal Procedure (CrPC) defines bailable offences and the underlying principle behind granting of bails by courts, as "personal liberty". Freedom and personal liberty are fundamental rights of a citizen as laid down by Article 21 of the Constitution. Ganapathi Bhat | Akola Coffee plantation in Odisha he Odisha state cabinet has approved a coffee plantation for sustainable livelihood (CPSC) scheme with an outlay of 1,144 crore. Under this scheme, Coffee plantations in the state will be extended to one lakh from ten thousand acres. The scheme will be implemented in the six districts in the state. Koraput, Rayagada, Kalahandi, Kandhamal, Keonjhar, and Gajapati will benefit from this scheme. T Modi for "not visiting Manipur" and said that the ideology of the Bharatiya Janata Party has destroyed the idea of Manipur. Politics of hatred and violence have torn the state apart. Prime Minister after so many months has not bothered to visit Manipur. Is Manipur, not an Indian state?" Congress leader said. Earlier in February last year, the Union Home Minister had said that the Meghalaya government was filling its coffers with poor people's money and said that it is the most corrupt government in the country. BJP and NPP were partners in the outgoing government but fought the assembly polls separately. After the Assembly poll results, the BJP came into coalition with the NPP by extending support. With this, it is a double standard game which is unfortunate. Bhagwan Thadani | Mumbai POLITICAL ALLEGATIONS Sir — Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on Monday said that the Union Home Minister once had termed the National People's Party (NPP) led Meghalaya government "the most corrupt" in the country but later allied with them. Addressing the public in Ri Bhoi district, Rahul Gandhi said, "Meghalaya is not ruled from here but from Delhi. This is not acceptable. The nation is facing the highest levels of unemployment in the WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM SUMMIT last 40 years. Rahul Gandhi reiterated his Sir — The ‘Back to Basics’ strategy, attacks on Prime Minister Narendra embraced at the World Economic Forum Additionally, women's Self-help groups will be involved in raising coffee nurseries which will benefit more than fifty thousand farm families in the region. Recently, Coffee has emerged as one of the major production from Odisha due to its agro-friendly climate and support from the state machinery. The coffee produced in the state has already gained international recognition. Coffee is a profitable commercial crop because of its growing popularity in the market. Good quality coffee production on a large scale will make a scope for export to other countries. This scheme will encourage the tribal people of the area to engage in these activities and earn profits. This will boost the economy, tourism, and scientific education in these six districts. If distribution and marketing are done properly Odisha’s coffee will spread more and get worldwide recognition through this initiative. Deba Prasad Nayak | Dhenkanal (WEF) summit in Davos, fell short with elaborate discussions and superficial intentions. Conversations about warinflicted economic crisis barely captured the scenes. The looming threats of Greenwashing, market volatility, erosion of the tax base through havens, and other critical economic issues were largely neglected. While the IMF anticipates a substantial economic downturn in 2024 alongside mounting debts, the Davos meeting appears devoid of any therapy. Furthermore, the persistent notion that ‘Europe’s problems are the world’s problems’ continues to resonate, disadvantaging the ailing Global South. Following a lacklustre COP28 and now the WEF, the desertification of multilateralism is paving the way for the return of Cold War-era bloc politics. Abhisek Pani| Bhubaneswar Send your feedback to: letterstopioneer@gmail.com HYDERABAD | THURSDAY | JANUARY 25, 2024 07 www.dailypioneer.com facebook.com/dailypioneer | @TheDailyPioneer | instagram.com/dailypioneer/ FIRSTCOLUMN TO STAY BLESSED, TAKE SHELTER IN GOD Those who take shelter in God and have faith in him are under His protection Has the Non-Aligned Movement lost its plot? NILANTHA ILANGAMUWA Acknowledging the paradoxical essence of the Non-Aligned Movement, let us openly recognise the recent assembly's inherent absurdity AJIT KUMAR BISHNOI L et us examine in detail some of them. Money is most sought after by almost one and all. Is it a shelter? Yes, it provides material objects, comforts in life, etc. But are these sufficient for quality of life? If they were, rich people would be peaceful, happy and secure. Are they? Because money cannot buy these. One has to go to God for them. One has to do spiritual activities to please God. This is the way the System works. Let us agree that money has an important role in our lives, but it cannot be our shelter. By the way, God can provide what we lack and provide security for what we have, if we remain in His shelter. (The Bhagavad-Geeta 9.22)The next most soughtafter shelter is a sense of enjoyment like eating tasty food, watching something exciting, etc. These are fine if they are appropriate for our needs. (6.17) Otherwise, as the verse tells us our troubles will not reduce. Troubles there must be in this world, an impermanent place of miseries. (8.15) Rather our sufferings will increase manifold if we seek shelter in sex, considered the highest sense of pleasure. It must always be within the limit of dharma to be acceptable. (7.11) Then, there are many, who take shelter in work. They are called workaholics. A new addiction has arrived. These are our cell phones. People are forever checking it for messages, and information, and what happens? The Internet takes charge of us through provocative ads and promises of easy money. One corrupts and the other fools. It has become a pandemic, far from being a shelter. Everyone is looking for security, beginning with a toddler. He gets it from his parents, especially from his mother. One can understand this, as this is nature’s arrangement. But as we grow, we need to make the right choices. We don’t; some of us seek from influential persons, and now bogus gurus. Everything has a price, but people generally don’t seek it from God, where it is best available. Why? They are not prepared to pay its price, which is to surrender to the Almighty. If one does, troubles will come and go, because God will help. (18.58) Otherwise, they will take their time, as destined. Yes, many turn to God in distress. (7.16) God appreciates it also. (7.18) But again one has to deserve such help by pleasing God by spiritual acts. (18.65)But the modern man chooses to sleep over proper action. Sleeping pills have become quite common. Eat them and everything will be fine. Does it become? Seeking shelter in greed is a common refuge, fueled by the prevailing materialism that drives the pursuit of quick wealth. However, success is not solely determined by greed or hard work; destiny plays a crucial role. Even the poorest work diligently, challenging the notion that wealth is solely a result of effort. The human psyche often grapples with negative emotions such as anger and revenge, leading to a loss of inner peace. The alternative proposed is seeking refuge in God. Amidst life's uncertainties, relying on God's protection is advocated to avoid potential misfortunes. Actively seeking shelter from God instills confidence and invites abundant grace into one's life. Surrendering to God's guidance in the spiritual journey attracts positive fortune, transcending the challenges posed by human nature. Although the decision may contradict inherent tendencies, spiritual intelligence can overcome such resistance. Associating with spiritually wise individuals in satsang proves beneficial in navigating this transformative journey. Once embarked upon, the spiritual path becomes irreversible, guided by the munificence of God. (The writer is a spiritual guide; views are personal) F ollowing the opulent Davos event, the World Economic Forum of Klaus Schwab, gathered by Western elites, scrutinized topics ranging from the implications of AI to the looming threat of mysterious Disease X, a surge of anti-Netanyahu sentiments emerged in Kampala. This sentiment was notably expressed by members of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) during their gathering. The choice of location held historical significance, situated around 53 kilometres from the site of Operation Entebbe, where Benjamin Netanyahu's brother tragically lost his life almost five decades ago. Over the years, Kampala and Entebbe have undergone transformative changes, witnessing the rise and fall of rulers. Yoweri Museveni, Africa's fourth-longest-serving head of state, now leads NAM, a leader with a complex history, having ousted the tyrannical regimes of Idi Amin and Milton Obote and faced serious accusations of crimes against humanity. The irony lies in Museveni now advocating for justice in Gaza and accountability against Israel, encapsulating the conflicting ideologies within NAM. Addressing the paradoxical nature of NAM, let's candidly acknowledge the absurdity of its recent gathering, which diverted attention from pressing global issues. While many member states grapple with internal conflicts and political chaos, the organization indulges in verbose deliberations. Though we are passing a moment of need, it is crucial to refrain from romanticizing historical achievements and confront current failures. Instead of lamenting only the plight of Palestinians, perhaps NAM should focus on alleviating the tangible struggles of its member countries. If they genuinely wanted to help Palestinians, redirecting financial resources towards essentials such as drinking water and medicine could have a more meaningful impact. Providing victims with necessities rather than holding conferences to indulge in rhetoric would be a more effective use of public funds, emphasizing the organization's responsibility and accountability. Despite its historical significance, the NAM finds itself in a state of decline, resembling a fading relic. Decades have passed since the departure of its original leaders, leaving the organization with waning influence. The current members show little intent to breathe new life into this slowly deteriorating entity. It is essential to grasp the reality that the heyday of NAM is long gone. The organization, which once played a pivotal role, now struggles for relevance. The lack of a cohesive vision and commitment among member countries hastens NAM's natural demise. The time has come for a critical reassessment of its purpose and the genuine dedication of member nations to its survival. The architects of the NAM were visionary leaders from Europe, Asia, and Africa, including Josip Broz Tito of Yugoslavia, Jawaharlal Nehru (India), Gamal Abdel Nasser (Egypt), Kwame Nkrumah (Ghana), Sirimavo Bandaranaike (Sri Lanka), and Sukarno (Indonesia). These eminent figures envisioned not only the destiny of the Third World and developing nations but also recognized the crucial role of international peace and security for humanity. Their collective insight emphasized that freedom from superpower rivalry, the cessation of colonialism and imperialism, and global peace required collaboration, not division. The founders aimed to shield newly inde- DESPITE ITS HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE, THE NAM FINDS ITSELF IN A STATE OF DECLINE, RESEMBLING A FADING RELIC. DECADES HAVE PASSED SINCE THE DEPARTURE OF ITS ORIGINAL LEADERS, LEAVING THE ORGANISATION WITH WANING INFLUENCE pendent countries from the pressures of bloc politics. However, what began as a utopian dream evolved into a stagnant organization, a consequence of strategic missteps rather than a natural progression. This year's NAM conference in Uganda, like its predecessors, appeared incapable of achieving substantive outcomes beyond consuming time and resources ostensibly devoted to addressing political crises. It is undeniable that this floundering organization lacks a viable future, and the persistent squandering of public funds yields no palpable benefits for human development. Despite being recognized as the largest multi-state organization after the United Nations, the NAM’s discussions on global challenges have been confined to mere oratory, lacking the capacity to resolve crises. The platform, once rooted in the Bandung Principles, has devolved into a sanctuary for vacuous communication, funded by the hard-earned money of citizens in member countries. Since the inception of NAM, the socalled third-world and developing countries have witnessed numerous military conflicts, often initiated and sustained without hindrance by the West and the Soviet Union. The territories of NAM member countries became pawns in the geopolitical objectives of these power blocs, with ruling elites aligning with either the Soviet or Western camps for political survival. Noteworthy conflicts such as the Vietnam War, the Six-Day War, the Yom Kippur War, the Soviet-Afghan War, the Iran-Iraq War, the Gulf War, the Bosnian War, the Rwandan genocide, the Kosovo War, the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq, the Syrian civil war, and the Yemeni Civil War unfolded in the Global South. The NAM's failure to collectively and responsibly implement its principles contributed to this tragic legacy, as accountability and responsibility could have prevent- ed such widespread suffering. Sadly, attempting to resuscitate a moribund enterprise inevitably invites chaos, yielding neither renewed hope nor the impactful contributions promised at its inception. This is the predicament in which the NAM finds itself, failing to live up to its proclaimed principles while catering to the interests of a privileged few. No amount of picturesque portrayal can conceal the stark reality, as the structure of NAM stands as a façade masking inherent falsehood and decay. During this year's conference, leaders reiterated the narrative of member states breaking free from colonialism but grappling with new forms of inequality and hegemony, conveniently neglecting the role of their own hegemonic politics and corruption in fostering these disparities. As discussed at the conference, in the era of globalization, leaders perceive economic concentrations, while the rest of the world sees mere markets or resources. The pandemic underscored the detachment of the smallest needs of these countries from distant production centres. However, amidst politically correct and universalist narratives that neglect traditions, the conference amounted to little more than eloquent words in a spurious sermon, devoid of constructive significance and laden with political hypocrisy. While the dream of a multipolar world is commendable, its realization remains elusive without collective agreement. Proposals for economic decentralization and regional production lack substance if member states, lacking capital management, persist in dependence on Western financial markets and facilitate capital outflow to Western countries through money laundering, rendering the pursuit of economic independence a delusion. Changing the global order necessitates both practical and sincere measures, including the establishment of regional economic hubs, resilient supply chains, predictable mobility, and reliable data flows. Person-centred policies promoting sustainable lifestyles and digital public infrastructure exemplify the potential benefits of technology. Prioritizing relationships while respecting sovereignty and ensuring viability, especially in addressing food, energy, and health security, as well as promoting women-led development, remains critical. However, since the end of the Cold War in 1991, the foundational principles of the Non-Aligned Nations were shattered. Attempts to recreate the movement faced a lack of consensus among member state leaders. Instead, these states formed selective ties to advance political goals, rendering the "non-aligned" policy a mere pseudo-vocabulary. Unfortunately, leaders within the movement engaged in arbitrary activities, using the platform to cover up abuses rather than addressing them. As the old world order gave way to a new multipolar reality post-Cold War, the NAM struggled to adapt to emerging dynamics. Instead of collectively facing the challenges, many leaders prioritized narrow political goals, hindering the movement's relevance in the changing world. Faced with the need to redefine its purpose and adapt to new challenges, the movement encountered various forms of sabotage and unrest. The failure to interpret challenges during this transitional period affected several organizations within the movement. Ironically, many leaders refuse to acknowledge the end of this history, preventing the birth of a redesigned and reinvented global order that could contribute to achieving a multipolar world. Consequently, the idea of a multipolar world remains but a daydream. (The writer is a Sri Lankan journalist and worked as a communications consultant for the Government of Sri Lanka; views are personal) Combating the deepfake menace necessitates stern legal measures Securing truth in the age of synthetic realities is more difficult than ever before. It must be curbed before it becomes unmanageable T he use of deepfake technologies has made it easier to impersonate another person physically or verbally these days. Sachin Tendulkar, the Cricket Legend, is one of the recent victims of deepfake, where in a morphed video, he is shown endorsing a gaming app and explaining how easily money can be drawn using this app. Rashmika Mandana to Alia Bhat, famous Indian Actresses, fell prey to deepfakes, hitting their reputation and prestige not only as respected Indian actresses but also as women. Some time ago, Telangana Minister KT Rao, after becoming a deepfake victim, wrote to the Election Commission and mentioned the incident and its effect on voters and the public. Seeing these incidents hap- SIDDHARTH MISHRA BHAWNA SHARMA pening frequently, it can be easily predicted that deepfake technology may achieve an unprecedented level of realism – blurring the lines between real and synthetic. These incidents also reflect a major concern about the misuse of deepfake technologies in the spread of disinformation and misinformation that is directly hitting the informational security of society at large.In layperson's language, deepfakes are images or videos of a person’s likeness or other related things that have been digitally altered in a bid to misrepresent what happened in reality such as facial expression manipulation, face morphing, face swap, face generation and full body puppetry. The synthetic media not only inflict individual harm but have a profound impact on organisations, governments, and society at large. The deleterious effects of deepfakes transcend mere personal consequences, encompassing psychological, financial, and societal realms; they erode the trust that underpins organizations, sow doubt in the halls of justice, and may even threaten the foundations of democracies.Imagine a world where your carefully crafted reputation can be shattered in an instant by a fabricated video. Where companies become pawns in blackmail schemes orchestrated through manipulated footage. Where legal proceedings lose their legitimacy as the authenticity of evidence becomes suspect. This dystopian reality is no longer fiction; it’s the chilling consequences of deepfakes. The IT Rules 2021 provides a complete list of prohibited content under rule 3(1)(b). Intermediaries are already bound to act in case of removals, blocking, or complaints regarding any deepfake content posted on their platform.There are speculations that the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology is soon to come up with new provisions under the IT Rules, 2021 to curb the prevalence of deepfakes. As per the author’s understanding, to restrain the spread of deepfakes on the intermediary’s platform, there are two ways in which IT Rules, 2021 may be amended. First, to define ‘deepfake’ and put it in the prohibited category of content under rule 3(1)(B) of the IT Rules, 2021. By doing this, automatically all the other due diligence requirements on intermediaries will apply in case of deepfakes as well. However, the major consequences of deepfake, misinformation, and impersonation are already included in the prohibited category of the list. Deepfake is emerging as a service company. The increased demand for deepfakes has also led to the establishment of several companies that deliver deepfakes as a product or even online service. These services are intended for use by marketers to personalise videos, eliminating the need to record a video for each recipient. Essentially, these services make producing a deepfake video as easy as editing text. Hence, the most appropriate and effective way to restrain deepfake is to directly regulate these companies that provide such deepfake technology. Second, deepfake may be regulated under the proposed Digital India Act by introducing a new class of online platforms, i.e., AI Synthesis Online Platforms (as the name may be called), and providing separate rules for their compliance.The proposed Digital India Act may include a few obligations for AI Synthesis Online Platforms. First, requiring them to ensure adherence to all the existing cyber and data protection legislation in India. Second, such online platforms, in order to ensure transparency, should provide information regarding the number of users of such platforms, their platform’s management rules, adopted technologies, tools deployed, and any other relevant information. Third, they may be obliged to deploy technological tools for recognizing false and damaging information created using services of the platform, implement a realidentity information authentical system, and adopt a review mechanism of synthetic data. It should also be obligatory on such platforms to tag or label those contents that are generated by using deepfake technologies. In view of the rising deepfake incidents and the government’s apparent concern for the same, it is probable that we may not have to wait for long for the necessary regulations as well as the Digital India Act to come into existence. (Siddhartha is Sr Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Law, University of Delhi and Bhavna is a techno-legal policy professional; views are personal)

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