The World Population: Two Distinct "Blocs" Author(s): Carmen A. Miro Source: Latin American Research Review, Vol. 1, No. 3 (Summer, 1966), pp. 5-16 Published by: Latin American Studies Association Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2502423 Accessed: 22-12-2015 11:37 UTC Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at http://www.jstor.org/page/ info/about/policies/terms.jsp JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org. Latin American Studies Association is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Latin American Research Review. http://www.jstor.org This content downloaded from 138.73.1.36 on Tue, 22 Dec 2015 11:37:15 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions TOPICAL REVIEW THE WORLD POPULATION: TWO DISTINCT "BLOCS"* CarmenA. Miro',CentroLatinoamericanio de Demografia FOLLOWING THEIR PARTICULAR DOCTRINARY INCLINATIONS, STUDENTS OF the social and thepoliticalsituationhave utilizeddiversedesignationsto identifythevarioussegmentsintowhichtheydividetheworld.These designations have always tended to presenta tripartite division,based frequentlyon economic or politico-socialorganizations.They have thus used termssuch as "free," communistand uncommitted, capitalist,socialist,"thirdworld," im perialistic, colonialor marxist. 1. NATALITY, THE DIFFERENTIATING FACTOR Without discussingthe appropriatenessof the precedingclassifications, thisarticlepresentsdata designedto showthatthecategoriesare entirelysenseless in referenceto the world demographicsituation.Concrete factsaffirm that the world is at presentdivided into two large democraphic"blocs" thattranscend ideological frontiersand those of politico-socialorganizations.On one side, we findcountrieswithhigh or moderatelyhigh birthrates,higherthan the world average; on the other,those in which these ratesare low or moderatelylow. An examinationof table 1 clearlyshows that all dassification based on ideologicalor politico-socialcriteriais merereminiscence today.We findcapitalistand socialistcountriesmixed in the categoryof countriesthat have reachedlow or moderatelylow levels of natality,while China, among others,is includedwiththosethatare abovetheworldaverage. Sociologists,psychologists, economists,and otherprofessionalshave persistentlysearchedfor explanationsto clarifythe determinants of the decline registeredin the level of natalityin certainsocieties,which appears to be a * The opinionsexpressedin thispaper reflectthe author'spersonalpointsof view. 5 This content downloaded from 138.73.1.36 on Tue, 22 Dec 2015 11:37:15 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Latin?A mericanResearchReview TABLE 1 ESTIMATED BIRTH RATES FOR THE DIFFERENT REGIONS OF THE WORLD FOR THE PERIOD 1960-1965 Regionis West Africa Birthrates (per thousand) 52.0 44.0 NorthAfrica Continental CentralAmerica SouthAfrica CentralSouthAsia SouthEastAsia EastAfrica TropicalSouthAmerica SouthWestAsia RestofEastAsia CentralAfrica Melanesia Caribbean China(Mainland) 43.6 42.8 42.6 41.9 41.7 41.4 41.2 40.4 40.0 40.0 37.9 34.3 SouthAmerica Temperate NorthAmerica AustraliaandNew Zealand SovietUnion 26.4 22.6 22.3 22.1 WesternEurope Japan NorthernEurope 17.1 17.0 16.5 THE WORLD SouthernEurope EasternEurope 33.6 19.3 18.0 toratesusedbyUnitedNationsin the"medium" in "Provisional Source:It refers projection as Assessedin 1963,"ST/SOA/SER.7, See Table 1, Reporton theWorldPopulation Prospects, 310. in the social organization.There seemsto be consensus sequel to modifications on onlyone point: thedeclineis voluntary, and it occursbecauseresortis made to the use of contraceptives or provokedabortion.Althoughcertainauthors sohave advanced the hypothesisthat motivationsare different in different cieties,the ultimateresult is the same: a reduced numberof childrenper woman;in general,a numbersmallerthanthreeon theaverage. While reliable statisticaldata are lacking on the methodsutilized by European populationsto reducetheirfertility afterthe adventof the indus- -6 This content downloaded from 138.73.1.36 on Tue, 22 Dec 2015 11:37:15 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions THE WORLD POPULATION: TWO DISTINCT "BLOCS" trialrevolution,itis acceptedthatthenon-socialist Europeanpopulations,those of North America,Australia,and New Zealand have recentlyattainedthis goal mainlythroughthe use of contraception, and thoseof Japanand socialist countriesthroughinducedabortion.The figuresfor Japanhave been systematicallypublished in officialdocuments.'Those pertainingto the countries of EasternEurope and the SovietUnion have becomeavailable morerecently. In a documentsubmittedby Andras Klinger to the World Population Conferencein 1965,2figuresare given forabortionsin fivesocialistcountriesduring the year 1962; when comparedwith the numberof recordedlive births in the same year,thesefiguresshow the importanceof abortionas a means of reducingnatality. Country Bulgaria Czechoslovakia Hungary Poland Yugoslavia Abortionls Live births (per thousand) 97.8 115.9 197.6 210.7 200.0 134.1 217.5 130.1 599.5 413.1 Rateofabortion per 1000 livebirths 729.1 533.0 1519.4 351.5 484.2 The mostspectacularcase is undoubtedlythatof Hungary,in whichthe numberof abortionsexceedsthenumberof live birthsby52 percent. Based on a surveyconductedin the SovietUnion, Heer has estimatedthe numberof abortionsduringthe year 1959 to be 5,829,000, whichrepresents an excessof 11 percentoverthe estimatednumberof live births(5,242,000); in otherwords,a rateof abortionof 1111.0 per thousandlive births. TemperateSouthAmerica,represented mainlybyArgentinaand Uruguay, seemsto have reducedits natalityby the combinedeffectof contraceptive and abortion,althoughinformationavailable on the frequencyof theiruse is incomplete.A surveyconductedrecentlyin the cityof Buenos Aires revealeda rateof abortionof 1974per 1000 live births,which,if consideredrepresentative of the whole Argentineanpopulation,would yieldan annual numberof more than93,000 abortions. The data cited above suggestthatthe desireto reducefertility fromits naturalmaximumto a level consideredconsistentwith individualaspirations is universal.If this desire has not been transferred to the sphereof conduct in the high fertility of factors demographic"bloc," it is due to a multiplicity among which low culturallevels, diverseprejudices,lack of informationon and accessto contraceptive methods,and absenceof actionprogramsstimulated byprivateorpublicorganizationsareamongthemostimportant. 7 This content downloaded from 138.73.1.36 on Tue, 22 Dec 2015 11:37:15 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions LatiniAmaerican Research Review Nor are the so-called "utilitarian"motiveslacking in the societiesthat have actedvoluntarily to make fertility decline.If we acceptas valid the data citedbyHeer in thearticlementionedabove,a surveyconductedamong26,000 Russian womenin 1958-59 to determinethe reasonsadduced by themto requestan abortiongave thefollowingresults: Reason eachreason Percentage declaring Urbanarea Ruralarea Materialneeds Lackofspace No oneathomeorlack ofinstitution totakecareofchild New bornchildortoomany in thefamily children 10.0 14.0 11.2 4.2 11.0 10.9 10.0 10.0 These are also the reasonsfrequentlycitedby women in othersocieties.It is to be expectedthatas new and betterstructured aspirationspermeatethe societies with high fertility patterns,theywill search for ways and means to reduceit. 2. MORTALITY, BEHAVIOR DISSOCIATED FROM CHANGE If the level of natalitypermitsa division of the world into two large and <'blocs" in whichthe relationshipbetweenthe level of underdevelopment the level of fertility is clear,the same is not trueof mortality, whichhas declinedat leastto someextentwithoutsignificant changesin thesocial organization. We findpopulationswithpre-modernlevels of fertility exhibitingmortalityratesbelow theworld average.Even thevalue at whichthe level of mortalityforWesternAfricais estimated-( 25 per thousand) thehighestamong those included in table 2-is indicativeof importantimprovementin the generalstatusof the healthof the populationand significantly different from the levels of mortality prevailingin different regionsof the world at the beginningof thecentury.5 in less developedsocietieshavebeen The causesof thedeclinein mortality amply discussed in the literature,and it is unnecessaryto repeat them in extensohere. In sociallyand economicallybackwardregions,the decline in mortalityhas been due primarilyto the importationof medical and public health techniques;unfortunately these techniqueshave been applied without producingsubstantialchangesin thepolitico-socialorganization.This explains whytable 2 showslevels of mortality below the world averagein certainparts 8 This content downloaded from 138.73.1.36 on Tue, 22 Dec 2015 11:37:15 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions THE WORLD POPULATION: TWO DISTINCT "BLOCS" TABLE 2 ESTIMATED DEATH RATES FOR THE DIFFERENT REGIONS OF THE WORLD FOR THE PERIOD 1960-1965 Regions WestAfrica CentralAfrica Deathrates (per thousand) 25.1 24.7 Melanesia EastAfrica China(Mainland) CentralSouthAsia NorthAfrica SouthAfrica SouthEastAsia SouthWestAsia 24.7 24.0 21.0 19.7 19.2 16.2 15.9 15.8 Caribbean Continental CentralAmerica RestofEastAsia TropicalSouthAmerica WesternEurope Northern Europe Southern Europe NorthAmerica SouthAmerica Temperate EasternEurope Australia andNew Zealand Japan SovietUnion 14.9 11.6 11.2 10.8 10.7 10.4 10.0 9.2 9.2 8.7 8.5 8.0 7.2 THE WORLD 15.7 includedin Source:It refers to ratesusedbyUnitedNationsin the"medium"projection as Assessedin 1963,"ST/SOA/SER.7. Prospects, "Provisional Reporton theWorldPopulation SeeTable3, 312. of Asia, in the whole of Latin America,and decliningratesin most of Asia and importantpartsof Africa.In otherregions,as in the case of tlheSoviet has been accompaniedby and Union, for example,the reductionin mortality in greatmeasurehas been possible due to the evolutionof the social and eco-in the levels of living. improvements nomicorganizationand to significant While directcomparisonof the ratespresentedin table 2 is somewhat of the population in the various age structures complicatedby the different regionsinduded in it, it is in generalpossibleto appreciatewhat the level of 9 This content downloaded from 138.73.1.36 on Tue, 22 Dec 2015 11:37:15 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Latin Amnerican ResearchReview mortality was in the 1960-65 period.Only ten regionsshowed ratesabove the to West Africa,as it did world average,withthe highestvalue corresponding in thecase of natality. If we examinethefiguresin table 2, bearingin mindthedivisionintotwo "blocs," we again find European non-socialistcountries,those of Eastern Europe,the SovietUnion, NorthAmerica,Australia,and New Zealand mixed togetheramongthecountrieswiththelowestlevelsof mortality. of medicaland publichealthtechniques The phenomenonof importation referredto above explainswhysomeof the regionsthatappear in theblockof high or moderatelyhigh birthratesin table 1 move, in the case of mortality, to the group of countriesthatin generalhave relativelyhigh levels of living. While the moderatelylow mortalityratesof these backwardregionscan be of a certaindegreeof socio-economicevolution,theyhave seen as a reflection in greatmeasurecontributed to a false illusionof progress,and, of moreimalreadynoted withthepatternsof mortality portance,have actedin combination to createtheconditionsof rapiddemographicgrowthprevalentin theseregions of theworldtoday. 3. NUMERICAL IMBALANCE OF THE TWO DEMOGRAPHIC "BLOCS" The regionswiththe highestbirthratestodayhave also been historically the mostpopulated.The accelerationof the rateof demographicgrowthas a has not been accompanied consequenceof the continuingdeclinein mortality by a reductionin the natalityrates,stabilizedat the levels alreadydescribed, and has broughtabouta proportionalincreasein thepopulationsof theseareas in contrastwiththoseof theother"bloc." While theregionswithnatalityrates above the world average in 1960-65 had an estimatedpopulation of 63.7 percentof the world totalin 1920, thisproportionhad increasedto 67.2 percent40 yearslaterin 1960. It is estimatedthatby theyear2000 it will constitute75.6 percentof thetotal. In table 3 the variousregionshave been groupedin two "blocs" according to the level of theirbirthratesin the period 1960-65, using "non-controlledbloc" to denotethatpartof theworldwithbirthratesabove theworld average and "controlledbloc" to signifythatwith ratesbelow it. The total populationof thefirst"bloc" was estimatedto be 1,182 millionin 1920 and increasedto 2,008 in 1960-a 69.9 percentincrement.It is estimatedthat 40 yearshence it will be approximately4,510 million,i.e., a growthof 124.6 percent.These percentagesare considerablyhigherthan those that have occurredor are expectedto occurin the second "bloc," whichare only 30.5 and 69.2 percent,respectively.In other words, the imbalancebetweenthe two blockstendsto grow deeperwiththe passingof time.In 1960 the "non-con10 This content downloaded from 138.73.1.36 on Tue, 22 Dec 2015 11:37:15 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions TWO DISTINCT "BLOCS" THE WORLD POPULATION: 0 ON N \C 0OM I\ 0 ~~~~0 00 -4 00 N )G\ H C 0 H 0 O V ONCrC 1 < ~t ON 000- \OC\ m~~~~~G CM) 't N 0 N 00 i r Ns t 0' ON (N MVN \' N1 CN C,N clj' C) C) N ON) C V VN4tN (N~ N0 0 0 4 t O c C0\OON 00 -\ oQ~ -j\00 VN N O 0oo0 C\0 tc N CI 0N \Z | - Z~O0 C \0 00 OG ~cN << >N 4 t NOC 0 0l N~~~~~'~~V~ 0 1- rM \10co CN 0 N NCC~\ V \ < -4 O-t 0 \O 0i CM-4CMNN 0e'-~ ? f 00V CDONONO (Z O \ NO c(N\ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~00 c(>O t t 00 ON 0C0 4O0CM0N'o tNN 0 0oo 00 0 0 < 0 CM p ? 00 CD 0 0CS\"r- N \000N r 00 \'- \ 'n n C b 0 \'- -~ GI ~ CD (ON r- 0 o V 0 o N \0 0c 0-~-4 CM O\ \O ~~\0-1 CM 0 0 01 V \O O 0 S;~~~~~; F U- 0) t_~~ 0 P4 O0 ot0E > V> moOt-<t1tg O? CN (Z)~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0 o V0U)) ~O 4 o"0 OZ H- CO (z00 to 1z) 1) O q O0 ~ Zo>~ C) O-5; ?4 1UO X m C - 11 This content downloaded from 138.73.1.36 on Tue, 22 Dec 2015 11:37:15 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions LatinAmericanResearchReview cn GOCom ntoo?N I O0 G\ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ \0 u n \ \o ~~~~ON GE4 W~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~C GE um- r-n oo ,-I \0 q ,;I, r-n v o oN um4 v~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~C rr-- s l C\ CN cN o v~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~r C' 0 N GE ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~N v f r- x CN CN o N 00 N r-- \C 00 CN \0 On oZ <? - \0 n CN 0 C\ oo r- \CGO) 00 \0 H~~~~~~~~~~~~~~C *4 GE CXvl Ni C\ On 0 N r- \0 r-0 P4 O H O \0 00 \0 o CN o0 v Nrr C\ONv nC m 00 N ~~~~~~~~~~00 b ? \0 oo I CN roo r- m N00 0 00 on \0 oo~ 00 .C cd O) 4 cq ^4 CN c Nolfn ol1 cW.Gfi 0 tn oo<0 Cn 0 C\ m -" r- tn r--4 C 't-4 Sf tn O 0 - P4 > 0 P4 CN Vumo 00 00 > w) \ f L~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ z 0 MY u .> e i' z g W ? < ;$ 3 w i ? A S 12 This content downloaded from 138.73.1.36 on Tue, 22 Dec 2015 11:37:15 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions <~~ THE WORLD POPULATION: TWO DISTINCT "BLOCS" trolledbloc" had 1,032 millioninhabitantsmore than the "controlledbloc." In theyear2000 thisdifference is expectedto widento 3,062 million. Of coursethedifferences betweenthetwo "blocs" are notonlyof a demographicnature.They also implydifferential levels of education,of health,of nutrition,of income;in general,differential levels of living. It is recognized thatwithinthe variousregionsand the countriesincludedin themthereare also significant differences amongthe diversegroupscomposingtheirpopulations.What seemsirrefutableis that,whollyor partlyand by using different procedures,about one-thirdof the world populationhas successfullyapplied deterrents to itsreproduction. 4. THE CASE OF LATIN AMERICA As can be seen in table 3, Tropical South America,ContinentalCentral America,and the Caribbeanare includedin the "non-controlled bloc" while TemperateSouth America,with a natalitylevel below the world average,appearsin theother"bloc." This is due to thereproductive behaviorof thepopulationsof Argentinaand Uruguay,whichrepresentnotableexceptionsin the generalpatternprevailingin the restof Latin America.Apartfromthesetwo countries,indicationsof an incipientdemographictransition seemto existonly in Cuba and Chile. is examined,on the otherhand, all the reWhen the level of mortality gions comprisingLatin Americashow ratesbelow theworldaverage.This fact accountsforthe ratesof demographicgrowththathave allowed itspopulation to doublein periodsof 2 5 yearsorlessin somecases. The evolutionof the annual ratesof demographicgrowthin thedifferent regionscitedabove can easilybe linkedto whathas happenedin themregarding natality,mortality, and international immigration.It is estimatedthatin the 1920-30 period Latin Americagrew at an annual rateof 1.8 percent(see table 4) withTemperateSouthAmericaas the fastestgrowingregion,mainly as a resultof international Around 1962 the ratefor the whole immigration. of Latin Americahad risento 2.8 percent,and the differences betweenregions had widened. Due to the decline in its birthrate and the reductionof internationalimmigration, TemperateSouthAmericagrewat an annualrateof only 1.9 percent,while ContinentalCentral America reachedthe unprecedented level of 3.3 percent,whichdoes not seemto be themaximumexpected.Poputheregion'spastevolutionand lationprojections,whichtakeintoconsideration that the estimate annual rateof growthwill reach3.5 presentlevel of fertility, percentin theperiodof 1970-80. to repeatthe demographic Well knownas theyare, it seemsunnecessary consequencesof highbirthratessuchas thosecitedin table 2 formostof Latin 13 This content downloaded from 138.73.1.36 on Tue, 22 Dec 2015 11:37:15 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Latin AmericanResearchReviewv TABLE 4 ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH OF THE POPULATION BY SUB-REGIONS (PER CENT) 1920-30 to 1970-80 Region Latin Anerica, total Tropical SouthAmerica ContinentalCentralAmerica TemperateSouthAmerica Caribbean 1920-30 Period 1960-65 1970-80 1.8 1.8 1.4 2.4 2.0 2.8 2.8 3.3 1.9 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.5 1.8 2.4 Source: CarmenA. Miro,La Poblacio5nde America Latina en el Siglo XX (Document to theFirstPanamerican on Population, submitted Assembly Cali, Colombia,August1965). America.One resulthas just been discussed:high and progressively increasing ratesof growth.The othersare age structures witha predominanceof children and young adults and heavy emigrationfromthe rural to the urban areas. Consequencesof an essentiallyeconomicand social natureare also produced, and thesehavepoliticalrepercussions. It can generallybe accepted withoutproof that an increasingrate of demographicgrowthwill inevitablyproducea greaterneed for capitalinvestmentsin order to achieve a determinedlevel of productionper inhabitant. There is, however,nothinginherentin a high rateof populationgrowththat automaticallygeneratesa greateravailabilityof funds. The presentrate of growthof the Latin Americanpopulationeven contributes to the scarcityof fundsnecessaryforpromotingeconomicdevelopment.As a meansof judging the impactof theserateson the economy,it is sufficient to notethatSpengler6 has estimatedthatfourpercentis theproportionof nationalincomeneededbya developedcountryto meetthe needs createdby an annual populationgrowth rate of one percent.The proportionwould necessarilybe greaterfor Latin Americancountries.By limitingthe availabilityof capital,rapid population growthis one of the factorsimpedingthe openingand developmentof new areas, which manywould like to see populated,and causing insteadthe displacementof the populationtowardareas thatalreadyhave servicessuch as thosefoundin cities.We are not,of course,implyingthatthesolutionto Latin can be reducedto simplisticterms, America'sproblemof underdevelopment to e.g., thata reductionin the rateof populationgrowthwould be sufficient overcomeall the problems.It is onlyone of the necessaryconditionsto which othersof an economic,social,and politicalnaturewould have to be added. 14 This content downloaded from 138.73.1.36 on Tue, 22 Dec 2015 11:37:15 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions THE WORLD POPULATION: TWO DISTINCT "BLOCS" In additionto the problemdiscussedabove, the age structure peculiarto Latin America'spopulationcreatesotherdifficulties. These includethe necessityof applyingincreasingratesof investments to fulfillthe needs of children and adolescents,especiallythose relatingto theireducation.The numberof dependentpeople (minorsand old people) growsin proportionto the numberof people able to work,creating, a situationin whichtheurgencyof attending to the needs of the formerreducesthe availabilityof capital for directly productiveends. It also increasesthedifficulty of attendingto the demandsfor work of a growingproportionof youngadults who seek to enterthe labor force.7Among the positiveaspectsof the age structure found in most Latin Americancountries,the followinghave been mentioned:greatergeographical and occupationalmobilityof an essentiallyyoung,laborforcedisposedto adapt itselfto change,and a growingnumberof potentialconsumersable to create a greaterdemandforinvestment. Finally,the heavymigrationto large citiesconfrontsLatin Americawith a complexset of economic,social,and politicalproblems.As the displacement of people takesplace with littleor no relationshipto the labor needs of the large cities,many of the migrantsmust live in entirelymarginalconditions withregardto employment, housing,education,health,and otherpublic services. The city,unable to give adequate attentionto the needs of its new immigrants,mustwitnessthe ravage of its peripheryby the growthof unhealthy slums,continuing, growthin the ranksof its unemployedand sub-employed, the deterioration of its transportation services,and the multiplicationof the problemsconnectedwith the administration of public services.This explains in partwhythe city,usuallya seat of politicalpower,becomesa focalpointof social movementsseekingto modifythepresentadversecircumstances. At the otherextreme,emigrationtendsto aggravatethe alreadyunsatisfactoryconditionsin ruralareas and small cities.As those who emigrateare generallypersonsof workingage, of a highereducationallevel,and withmore favorableattitudestowardchangeand progress,the relativelymorebackward communitiesare increasinglydeprivedof theirmore dynamicand enterprising elements.At thesametime,thedependencyratesof minorsand old people to the group potentiallyable to work becomes even more unfavorablyunbalanced. The way in which Latin America succeedsin overcomingsome of the adverse consequencesmentionedabove depends to a great extentupon the couragewithwhichtheneedforchangesis confronted. NOTES 1. The numberof induced abortionsin 1959 was 1,099,000, representinga rate of 677.1 per 1000 live births.Masabumi Kimura, A Review of Induced Abortion Surveysin Japan. (Paper No. 43, IPU Conference,1961.) 15 This content downloaded from 138.73.1.36 on Tue, 22 Dec 2015 11:37:15 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Latin AmericanResearchReview 2. Andras Klinger,DemographicFactors of AbortionLegislation in Some European Socialist Countries.DocumentA.1/I/E/88. 3. David M. Heer, "Abortion,Contraception,and Population Policy in the Soviet Union," Demography,2, (1965) 531-539. 4. CarmenA. Mir6, Some MisconceptionsDisproved: A Programmeof ComparativeFertility Surveysin Latin America. (Document preparedfor the InternationalConferenceon Family PlanningPrograms,Geneva,August23-27, 1965.) 5. For example,it is estimatedthatthe mortalityof Tropical South Americaat the beginning of the centurywas around 30 to 35 per thousand;thatof Russia before 1910 was approximately30 per thousand,and that of Ceylon in 1921-25 was estimatedat about 28 per thousand. 6. JosephJ. Spengler,"Population and Economic Growth,"in Population: The Vital Revolution,ed. Ronald Freedman(Garden City:AnchorBooks, 1964). 7. Recent calculationsby ECLA estimatethe numberof young people under 20 years of age who would enterthe workingpopulation duringthe year 1965 to be about 3 million. It is presumedthatthisnumberwill exceed4?/2millionannuallyin 1980. RURAL SOCIOLOGY Volume31 / Number1 / March,1966 Bond L. Bible and Coy G. McNabb FrederickC. Fliegel Role Consensusand Administrative Effectiveness Literacyand Exposureto Instrumental Information amongFarmersin Brazil Within-Urbanand Within-Rural N. KrishnanNamboodiri Differentials LocationalAspectsof Densities,FarmSizes JamesD. Tarver and Land Values RetailServicePatternsand Small Town GlennV. Fuguittand Nora Deeley PopulationChange Reviews / News Notes / ResearchNotes Book Reviews/ Bulletin Journalof theRuralSociologicalSociety Official and foreign Subscription: eightdollarsannually,doomestic and December PublishedQuarterlyin March,June,September, of WisEDITORIAL OFFICE: Departmentof Rural Sociology/ University consin/ Madison,Wisconsin 53706 SUBSCRIPTION OFFICE: Department of Rural Sociology/ South Dakota State University/ Brookings,South Dakota 57007 16 This content downloaded from 138.73.1.36 on Tue, 22 Dec 2015 11:37:15 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions