The World Population: Two Distinct "Blocs"
Author(s): Carmen A. Miro
Source: Latin American Research Review, Vol. 1, No. 3 (Summer, 1966), pp. 5-16
Published by: Latin American Studies Association
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2502423
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TOPICAL
REVIEW
THE WORLD POPULATION:
TWO DISTINCT
"BLOCS"*
CarmenA. Miro',CentroLatinoamericanio
de Demografia
FOLLOWING
THEIR PARTICULAR DOCTRINARY INCLINATIONS,
STUDENTS
OF
the social and thepoliticalsituationhave utilizeddiversedesignationsto identifythevarioussegmentsintowhichtheydividetheworld.These designations
have always tended to presenta tripartite
division,based frequentlyon economic or politico-socialorganizations.They have thus used termssuch as
"free," communistand uncommitted,
capitalist,socialist,"thirdworld," im
perialistic,
colonialor marxist.
1. NATALITY, THE DIFFERENTIATING
FACTOR
Without discussingthe appropriatenessof the precedingclassifications,
thisarticlepresentsdata designedto showthatthecategoriesare entirelysenseless in referenceto the world demographicsituation.Concrete
factsaffirm
that
the world is at presentdivided into two large democraphic"blocs" thattranscend ideological frontiersand those of politico-socialorganizations.On one
side, we findcountrieswithhigh or moderatelyhigh birthrates,higherthan
the world average; on the other,those in which these ratesare low or moderatelylow. An examinationof table 1 clearlyshows that all dassification
based on ideologicalor politico-socialcriteriais merereminiscence
today.We
findcapitalistand socialistcountriesmixed in the categoryof countriesthat
have reachedlow or moderatelylow levels of natality,while China, among
others,is includedwiththosethatare abovetheworldaverage.
Sociologists,psychologists,
economists,and otherprofessionalshave persistentlysearchedfor explanationsto clarifythe determinants
of the decline
registeredin the level of natalityin certainsocieties,which appears to be a
* The opinionsexpressedin thispaper reflectthe author'spersonalpointsof view.
5
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TABLE 1
ESTIMATED BIRTH RATES FOR THE DIFFERENT REGIONS OF THE
WORLD FOR THE PERIOD 1960-1965
Regionis
West Africa
Birthrates
(per thousand)
52.0
44.0
NorthAfrica
Continental
CentralAmerica
SouthAfrica
CentralSouthAsia
SouthEastAsia
EastAfrica
TropicalSouthAmerica
SouthWestAsia
RestofEastAsia
CentralAfrica
Melanesia
Caribbean
China(Mainland)
43.6
42.8
42.6
41.9
41.7
41.4
41.2
40.4
40.0
40.0
37.9
34.3
SouthAmerica
Temperate
NorthAmerica
AustraliaandNew Zealand
SovietUnion
26.4
22.6
22.3
22.1
WesternEurope
Japan
NorthernEurope
17.1
17.0
16.5
THE WORLD
SouthernEurope
EasternEurope
33.6
19.3
18.0
toratesusedbyUnitedNationsin the"medium"
in "Provisional
Source:It refers
projection
as Assessedin 1963,"ST/SOA/SER.7, See Table 1,
Reporton theWorldPopulation
Prospects,
310.
in the social organization.There seemsto be consensus
sequel to modifications
on onlyone point: thedeclineis voluntary,
and it occursbecauseresortis made
to the use of contraceptives
or provokedabortion.Althoughcertainauthors
sohave advanced the hypothesisthat motivationsare different
in different
cieties,the ultimateresult is the same: a reduced numberof childrenper
woman;in general,a numbersmallerthanthreeon theaverage.
While reliable statisticaldata are lacking on the methodsutilized by
European populationsto reducetheirfertility
afterthe adventof the indus-
-6
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THE WORLD POPULATION:
TWO DISTINCT "BLOCS"
trialrevolution,itis acceptedthatthenon-socialist
Europeanpopulations,those
of North America,Australia,and New Zealand have recentlyattainedthis
goal mainlythroughthe use of contraception,
and thoseof Japanand socialist
countriesthroughinducedabortion.The figuresfor Japanhave been systematicallypublished in officialdocuments.'Those pertainingto the countries
of EasternEurope and the SovietUnion have becomeavailable morerecently.
In a documentsubmittedby Andras Klinger to the World Population Conferencein 1965,2figuresare given forabortionsin fivesocialistcountriesduring the year 1962; when comparedwith the numberof recordedlive births
in the same year,thesefiguresshow the importanceof abortionas a means of
reducingnatality.
Country
Bulgaria
Czechoslovakia
Hungary
Poland
Yugoslavia
Abortionls Live births
(per thousand)
97.8
115.9
197.6
210.7
200.0
134.1
217.5
130.1
599.5
413.1
Rateofabortion
per
1000 livebirths
729.1
533.0
1519.4
351.5
484.2
The mostspectacularcase is undoubtedlythatof Hungary,in whichthe numberof abortionsexceedsthenumberof live birthsby52 percent.
Based on a surveyconductedin the SovietUnion, Heer has estimatedthe
numberof abortionsduringthe year 1959 to be 5,829,000, whichrepresents
an excessof 11 percentoverthe estimatednumberof live births(5,242,000);
in otherwords,a rateof abortionof 1111.0 per thousandlive births.
TemperateSouthAmerica,represented
mainlybyArgentinaand Uruguay,
seemsto have reducedits natalityby the combinedeffectof contraceptive
and
abortion,althoughinformationavailable on the frequencyof theiruse is incomplete.A surveyconductedrecentlyin the cityof Buenos Aires revealeda
rateof abortionof 1974per 1000 live births,which,if consideredrepresentative
of the whole Argentineanpopulation,would yieldan annual numberof more
than93,000 abortions.
The data cited above suggestthatthe desireto reducefertility
fromits
naturalmaximumto a level consideredconsistentwith individualaspirations
is universal.If this desire has not been transferred
to the sphereof conduct
in the high fertility
of factors
demographic"bloc," it is due to a multiplicity
among which low culturallevels, diverseprejudices,lack of informationon
and accessto contraceptive
methods,and absenceof actionprogramsstimulated
byprivateorpublicorganizationsareamongthemostimportant.
7
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LatiniAmaerican
Research
Review
Nor are the so-called "utilitarian"motiveslacking in the societiesthat
have actedvoluntarily
to make fertility
decline.If we acceptas valid the data
citedbyHeer in thearticlementionedabove,a surveyconductedamong26,000
Russian womenin 1958-59 to determinethe reasonsadduced by themto requestan abortiongave thefollowingresults:
Reason
eachreason
Percentage
declaring
Urbanarea
Ruralarea
Materialneeds
Lackofspace
No oneathomeorlack
ofinstitution
totakecareofchild
New bornchildortoomany
in thefamily
children
10.0
14.0
11.2
4.2
11.0
10.9
10.0
10.0
These are also the reasonsfrequentlycitedby women in othersocieties.It is
to be expectedthatas new and betterstructured
aspirationspermeatethe societies with high fertility
patterns,theywill search for ways and means to
reduceit.
2. MORTALITY, BEHAVIOR DISSOCIATED FROM CHANGE
If the level of natalitypermitsa division of the world into two large
and
<'blocs" in whichthe relationshipbetweenthe level of underdevelopment
the level of fertility
is clear,the same is not trueof mortality,
whichhas declinedat leastto someextentwithoutsignificant
changesin thesocial organization. We findpopulationswithpre-modernlevels of fertility
exhibitingmortalityratesbelow theworld average.Even thevalue at whichthe level of mortalityforWesternAfricais estimated-( 25 per thousand) thehighestamong
those included in table 2-is indicativeof importantimprovementin the
generalstatusof the healthof the populationand significantly
different
from
the levels of mortality
prevailingin different
regionsof the world at the beginningof thecentury.5
in less developedsocietieshavebeen
The causesof thedeclinein mortality
amply discussed in the literature,and it is unnecessaryto repeat them in
extensohere. In sociallyand economicallybackwardregions,the decline in
mortalityhas been due primarilyto the importationof medical and public
health techniques;unfortunately
these techniqueshave been applied without
producingsubstantialchangesin thepolitico-socialorganization.This explains
whytable 2 showslevels of mortality
below the world averagein certainparts
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THE WORLD POPULATION:
TWO DISTINCT "BLOCS"
TABLE 2
ESTIMATED DEATH RATES FOR THE DIFFERENT REGIONS OF THE
WORLD FOR THE PERIOD 1960-1965
Regions
WestAfrica
CentralAfrica
Deathrates
(per thousand)
25.1
24.7
Melanesia
EastAfrica
China(Mainland)
CentralSouthAsia
NorthAfrica
SouthAfrica
SouthEastAsia
SouthWestAsia
24.7
24.0
21.0
19.7
19.2
16.2
15.9
15.8
Caribbean
Continental
CentralAmerica
RestofEastAsia
TropicalSouthAmerica
WesternEurope
Northern
Europe
Southern
Europe
NorthAmerica
SouthAmerica
Temperate
EasternEurope
Australia
andNew Zealand
Japan
SovietUnion
14.9
11.6
11.2
10.8
10.7
10.4
10.0
9.2
9.2
8.7
8.5
8.0
7.2
THE WORLD
15.7
includedin
Source:It refers
to ratesusedbyUnitedNationsin the"medium"projection
as Assessedin 1963,"ST/SOA/SER.7.
Prospects,
"Provisional
Reporton theWorldPopulation
SeeTable3, 312.
of Asia, in the whole of Latin America,and decliningratesin most of Asia
and importantpartsof Africa.In otherregions,as in the case of tlheSoviet
has been accompaniedby and
Union, for example,the reductionin mortality
in greatmeasurehas been possible due to the evolutionof the social and eco-in the levels of living.
improvements
nomicorganizationand to significant
While directcomparisonof the ratespresentedin table 2 is somewhat
of the population in the various
age structures
complicatedby the different
regionsinduded in it, it is in generalpossibleto appreciatewhat the level of
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Latin Amnerican
ResearchReview
mortality
was in the 1960-65 period.Only ten regionsshowed ratesabove the
to West Africa,as it did
world average,withthe highestvalue corresponding
in thecase of natality.
If we examinethefiguresin table 2, bearingin mindthedivisionintotwo
"blocs," we again find European non-socialistcountries,those of Eastern
Europe,the SovietUnion, NorthAmerica,Australia,and New Zealand mixed
togetheramongthecountrieswiththelowestlevelsof mortality.
of medicaland publichealthtechniques
The phenomenonof importation
referredto above explainswhysomeof the regionsthatappear in theblockof
high or moderatelyhigh birthratesin table 1 move, in the case of mortality,
to the group of countriesthatin generalhave relativelyhigh levels of living.
While the moderatelylow mortalityratesof these backwardregionscan be
of a certaindegreeof socio-economicevolution,theyhave
seen as a reflection
in greatmeasurecontributed
to a false illusionof progress,and, of moreimalreadynoted
withthepatternsof mortality
portance,have actedin combination
to createtheconditionsof rapiddemographicgrowthprevalentin theseregions
of theworldtoday.
3. NUMERICAL IMBALANCE OF THE TWO DEMOGRAPHIC "BLOCS"
The regionswiththe highestbirthratestodayhave also been historically
the mostpopulated.The accelerationof the rateof demographicgrowthas a
has not been accompanied
consequenceof the continuingdeclinein mortality
by a reductionin the natalityrates,stabilizedat the levels alreadydescribed,
and has broughtabouta proportionalincreasein thepopulationsof theseareas
in contrastwiththoseof theother"bloc." While theregionswithnatalityrates
above the world average in 1960-65 had an estimatedpopulation of 63.7
percentof the world totalin 1920, thisproportionhad increasedto 67.2 percent40 yearslaterin 1960. It is estimatedthatby theyear2000 it will constitute75.6 percentof thetotal.
In table 3 the variousregionshave been groupedin two "blocs" according to the level of theirbirthratesin the period 1960-65, using "non-controlledbloc" to denotethatpartof theworldwithbirthratesabove theworld
average and "controlledbloc" to signifythatwith ratesbelow it. The total
populationof thefirst"bloc" was estimatedto be 1,182 millionin 1920 and increasedto 2,008 in 1960-a 69.9 percentincrement.It is estimatedthat 40
yearshence it will be approximately4,510 million,i.e., a growthof 124.6
percent.These percentagesare considerablyhigherthan those that have occurredor are expectedto occurin the second "bloc," whichare only 30.5 and
69.2 percent,respectively.In other words, the imbalancebetweenthe two
blockstendsto grow deeperwiththe passingof time.In 1960 the "non-con10
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TWO DISTINCT "BLOCS"
THE WORLD POPULATION:
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<~~
THE WORLD POPULATION:
TWO DISTINCT "BLOCS"
trolledbloc" had 1,032 millioninhabitantsmore than the "controlledbloc."
In theyear2000 thisdifference
is expectedto widento 3,062 million.
Of coursethedifferences
betweenthetwo "blocs" are notonlyof a demographicnature.They also implydifferential
levels of education,of health,of
nutrition,of income;in general,differential
levels of living. It is recognized
thatwithinthe variousregionsand the countriesincludedin themthereare
also significant
differences
amongthe diversegroupscomposingtheirpopulations.What seemsirrefutableis that,whollyor partlyand by using different
procedures,about one-thirdof the world populationhas successfullyapplied
deterrents
to itsreproduction.
4. THE CASE OF LATIN AMERICA
As can be seen in table 3, Tropical South America,ContinentalCentral
America,and the Caribbeanare includedin the "non-controlled
bloc" while
TemperateSouth America,with a natalitylevel below the world average,appearsin theother"bloc." This is due to thereproductive
behaviorof thepopulationsof Argentinaand Uruguay,whichrepresentnotableexceptionsin the
generalpatternprevailingin the restof Latin America.Apartfromthesetwo
countries,indicationsof an incipientdemographictransition
seemto existonly
in Cuba and Chile.
is examined,on the otherhand, all the reWhen the level of mortality
gions comprisingLatin Americashow ratesbelow theworldaverage.This fact
accountsforthe ratesof demographicgrowththathave allowed itspopulation
to doublein periodsof 2 5 yearsorlessin somecases.
The evolutionof the annual ratesof demographicgrowthin thedifferent
regionscitedabove can easilybe linkedto whathas happenedin themregarding natality,mortality,
and international
immigration.It is estimatedthatin
the 1920-30 period Latin Americagrew at an annual rateof 1.8 percent(see
table 4) withTemperateSouthAmericaas the fastestgrowingregion,mainly
as a resultof international
Around 1962 the ratefor the whole
immigration.
of Latin Americahad risento 2.8 percent,and the differences
betweenregions
had widened. Due to the decline in its birthrate and the reductionof internationalimmigration,
TemperateSouthAmericagrewat an annualrateof only
1.9 percent,while ContinentalCentral America reachedthe unprecedented
level of 3.3 percent,whichdoes not seemto be themaximumexpected.Poputheregion'spastevolutionand
lationprojections,whichtakeintoconsideration
that
the
estimate
annual rateof growthwill reach3.5
presentlevel of fertility,
percentin theperiodof 1970-80.
to repeatthe demographic
Well knownas theyare, it seemsunnecessary
consequencesof highbirthratessuchas thosecitedin table 2 formostof Latin
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TABLE 4
ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH OF THE
POPULATION BY SUB-REGIONS (PER CENT)
1920-30 to 1970-80
Region
Latin Anerica, total
Tropical SouthAmerica
ContinentalCentralAmerica
TemperateSouthAmerica
Caribbean
1920-30
Period
1960-65
1970-80
1.8
1.8
1.4
2.4
2.0
2.8
2.8
3.3
1.9
2.3
2.8
2.8
3.5
1.8
2.4
Source: CarmenA. Miro,La Poblacio5nde America Latina en el Siglo XX (Document
to theFirstPanamerican
on Population,
submitted
Assembly
Cali, Colombia,August1965).
America.One resulthas just been discussed:high and progressively
increasing
ratesof growth.The othersare age structures
witha predominanceof children
and young adults and heavy emigrationfromthe rural to the urban areas.
Consequencesof an essentiallyeconomicand social natureare also produced,
and thesehavepoliticalrepercussions.
It can generallybe accepted withoutproof that an increasingrate of
demographicgrowthwill inevitablyproducea greaterneed for capitalinvestmentsin order to achieve a determinedlevel of productionper inhabitant.
There is, however,nothinginherentin a high rateof populationgrowththat
automaticallygeneratesa greateravailabilityof funds. The presentrate of
growthof the Latin Americanpopulationeven contributes
to the scarcityof
fundsnecessaryforpromotingeconomicdevelopment.As a meansof judging
the impactof theserateson the economy,it is sufficient
to notethatSpengler6
has estimatedthatfourpercentis theproportionof nationalincomeneededbya
developedcountryto meetthe needs createdby an annual populationgrowth
rate of one percent.The proportionwould necessarilybe greaterfor Latin
Americancountries.By limitingthe availabilityof capital,rapid population
growthis one of the factorsimpedingthe openingand developmentof new
areas, which manywould like to see populated,and causing insteadthe displacementof the populationtowardareas thatalreadyhave servicessuch as
thosefoundin cities.We are not,of course,implyingthatthesolutionto Latin
can be reducedto simplisticterms,
America'sproblemof underdevelopment
to
e.g., thata reductionin the rateof populationgrowthwould be sufficient
overcomeall the problems.It is onlyone of the necessaryconditionsto which
othersof an economic,social,and politicalnaturewould have to be added.
14
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THE WORLD POPULATION:
TWO DISTINCT "BLOCS"
In additionto the problemdiscussedabove, the age structure
peculiarto
Latin America'spopulationcreatesotherdifficulties.
These includethe necessityof applyingincreasingratesof investments
to fulfillthe needs of children
and adolescents,especiallythose relatingto theireducation.The numberof
dependentpeople (minorsand old people) growsin proportionto the numberof people able to work,creating,
a situationin whichtheurgencyof attending to the needs of the formerreducesthe availabilityof capital for directly
productiveends. It also increasesthedifficulty
of attendingto the demandsfor
work of a growingproportionof youngadults who seek to enterthe labor
force.7Among the positiveaspectsof the age structure
found in most Latin
Americancountries,the followinghave been mentioned:greatergeographical
and occupationalmobilityof an essentiallyyoung,laborforcedisposedto adapt
itselfto change,and a growingnumberof potentialconsumersable to create
a greaterdemandforinvestment.
Finally,the heavymigrationto large citiesconfrontsLatin Americawith
a complexset of economic,social,and politicalproblems.As the displacement
of people takesplace with littleor no relationshipto the labor needs of the
large cities,many of the migrantsmust live in entirelymarginalconditions
withregardto employment,
housing,education,health,and otherpublic services. The city,unable to give adequate attentionto the needs of its new immigrants,mustwitnessthe ravage of its peripheryby the growthof unhealthy
slums,continuing,
growthin the ranksof its unemployedand sub-employed,
the deterioration
of its transportation
services,and the multiplicationof the
problemsconnectedwith the administration
of public services.This explains
in partwhythe city,usuallya seat of politicalpower,becomesa focalpointof
social movementsseekingto modifythepresentadversecircumstances.
At the otherextreme,emigrationtendsto aggravatethe alreadyunsatisfactoryconditionsin ruralareas and small cities.As those who emigrateare
generallypersonsof workingage, of a highereducationallevel,and withmore
favorableattitudestowardchangeand progress,the relativelymorebackward
communitiesare increasinglydeprivedof theirmore dynamicand enterprising elements.At thesametime,thedependencyratesof minorsand old people
to the group potentiallyable to work becomes even more unfavorablyunbalanced.
The way in which Latin America succeedsin overcomingsome of the
adverse consequencesmentionedabove depends to a great extentupon the
couragewithwhichtheneedforchangesis confronted.
NOTES
1. The numberof induced abortionsin 1959 was 1,099,000, representinga rate of 677.1 per
1000 live births.Masabumi Kimura, A Review of Induced Abortion Surveysin Japan.
(Paper No. 43, IPU Conference,1961.)
15
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2. Andras Klinger,DemographicFactors of AbortionLegislation in Some European Socialist
Countries.DocumentA.1/I/E/88.
3. David M. Heer, "Abortion,Contraception,and Population Policy in the Soviet Union,"
Demography,2, (1965) 531-539.
4. CarmenA. Mir6, Some MisconceptionsDisproved: A Programmeof ComparativeFertility
Surveysin Latin America. (Document preparedfor the InternationalConferenceon Family
PlanningPrograms,Geneva,August23-27, 1965.)
5. For example,it is estimatedthatthe mortalityof Tropical South Americaat the beginning
of the centurywas around 30 to 35 per thousand;thatof Russia before 1910 was approximately30 per thousand,and that of Ceylon in 1921-25 was estimatedat about 28 per
thousand.
6. JosephJ. Spengler,"Population and Economic Growth,"in Population: The Vital Revolution,ed. Ronald Freedman(Garden City:AnchorBooks, 1964).
7. Recent calculationsby ECLA estimatethe numberof young people under 20 years of age
who would enterthe workingpopulation duringthe year 1965 to be about 3 million. It is
presumedthatthisnumberwill exceed4?/2millionannuallyin 1980.
RURAL SOCIOLOGY
Volume31 / Number1 / March,1966
Bond L. Bible and
Coy G. McNabb
FrederickC. Fliegel
Role Consensusand Administrative
Effectiveness
Literacyand Exposureto Instrumental
Information
amongFarmersin Brazil
Within-Urbanand Within-Rural
N. KrishnanNamboodiri
Differentials
LocationalAspectsof Densities,FarmSizes
JamesD. Tarver
and Land Values
RetailServicePatternsand Small Town
GlennV. Fuguittand
Nora Deeley
PopulationChange
Reviews
/ News Notes / ResearchNotes
Book Reviews/ Bulletin
Journalof theRuralSociologicalSociety
Official
and foreign
Subscription:
eightdollarsannually,doomestic
and December
PublishedQuarterlyin March,June,September,
of WisEDITORIAL OFFICE: Departmentof Rural Sociology/ University
consin/ Madison,Wisconsin 53706 SUBSCRIPTION OFFICE: Department
of Rural Sociology/ South Dakota State University/ Brookings,South
Dakota 57007
16
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