Behjad Yasar
HS22H017
The Strait of Hormuz: A Ticking Geopolitical Time Bomb
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway stretching approximately 96 miles in length and a
mere 21 miles in width at its narrowest point, holds a pivotal role within the global landscape.
Nestled between Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to the south,
this strait serves as the critical connection between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. The
Strait of Hormuz is considered the world's busiest sea route for oil, surpassing even the Strait of
Malacca. While the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb in the Red Sea see modest oil traffic of about
five to six million barrels a day, the Strait of Hormuz bears the heavy burden of oil exports from
the Gulf region of about nineteen million barrels or $1.2 Billion worth of oil every day.1 Major
oil exporters such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait are heavily dependent on this
passage for their oil exports. The strait's significance extends to Iran and Qatar, the globe's
leading producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which sends nearly all of its gas through this
strait.
The global economy heavily relies on maritime transportation to facilitate the movement of
goods and cargo across the world's continents. While the 21st century has witnessed the advent
of various transport modes, the maritime sector still remains the primary driver of global trade,
responsible for approximately 80% of all cargo transport.2 At any given time, a multitude of
merchant vessels, numbering around 50,000, traverse the world's oceans, carrying as many as six
million containers filled with a wide array of goods.3 These maritime networks, characterised by
ships navigating in intricate patterns across the globe, serve as the circulatory system of the
21st-century global economy.
1
Barden, Justine . "The Strait of Hormuz Is the World's Most Important Oil Transit Chokepoint." U.S. Energy
Information Administration EIA, 20 Jun. 2019, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=39932
2
“Review of Maritime Transport 2023.” UNCTAD, 27 Sept. 2023,
unctad.org/publication/review-maritime-transport-2023
3
“Shipping and World Trade: Global Supply and Demand for Seafarers.” International Chamber of Shipping,
www.ics-shipping.org/shipping-fact/shipping-and-world-trade-global-supply-and-demand-for-seafarers
Unfortunately, the seas and oceans are not easily navigable due to the geographic configurations
of the continents, islands, and landmasses, which have inadvertently given rise to natural choke
points. These choke points, when blocked, disrupt the flow of global trade and have the potential
to trigger economic crises of unprecedented proportions.
The global maritime trade network relies on various strategic chokepoints for the movement of
goods and commodities. Key among these are the Panama Canal, which governs trade between
the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans; the Cape of Good Hope, which regulates trade around the
African continent; and the Strait of Gibraltar, managing the passage between the Mediterranean
and the Atlantic. Additionally, the Danish Straits, the Turkish Straits, and the Strait of Malacca
serve as vital channels for regional commerce.
However, while several critical maritime passages exist around the world, none is as pivotal as
the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway serves as the sole gateway for ships to traverse
between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The Persian Gulf is bordered by eight nations,
including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman.
For
four
of
these nations, access to
international waters is exclusively dependent
on navigating the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil remains a fundamental linchpin of the
contemporary global economy, supplying
approximately one-third of the world's energy
demand. On a daily basis, human society
consumes in excess of 100 million barrels of
oil.4 In the 21st century, oil continues to
occupy an unequivocal preeminence as the
predominant source of energy, affirming its
central role in sustaining modern civilization.
4
International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2023. International Energy Agency, 2023.
The Persian Gulf houses nearly half of
the
world's proven oil reserves5,
including the largest oil field globally,
situated in Saudi Arabia's Ghawar.
Moreover,
the
region
boasts
approximately 45% of the world's
proven natural gas reserves.6 Natural
gas is the world's third most common
source of energy, behind oil and coal,
and more than a fifth of the world's
energy is produced by using it. Given the
prevailing
global
energy landscape,
where oil and natural gas continue to
dominate as the primary energy source,
accounting for almost half of global energy production7, the Strait of Hormuz emerges as the
linchpin of global energy security.
The Persian Gulf and its immediate vicinity host an unparalleled abundance of oil and natural
gas reserves, surpassing any other region on Earth. Given that roughly one-third of the world's
oil production occurs in this area, while one-third of global energy consumption relies on oil.
Additionally, approximately one-fifth of the world's natural gas production emanates from the
Gulf, contributing to about a fifth of the planet's total energy supply. Consequently, it can,
therefore, be said that about 15 per cent of the entire planet's energy supply comes from
around the Persian Gulf and largely behind the Strait of Hormuz.8 In the contemporary
global transportation network of the 21st century, no other chokepoint approaches the level of
critical importance exhibited by this maritime passage.
5
“Petroleum | Energy, Products, and Facts.” Encyclopedia Britannica, 23 Aug. 1998,
www.britannica.com/science/petroleum/World-distribution-of-oil
6
Cordesman, Anthony H. Iran, Oil, and the Strait of Hormuz. Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, Center for
Strategic and International Studies, 26 March 2007.
7
“Supply – Key World Energy Statistics 2021 – Analysis - IEA.” IEA, 2021
www.iea.org/reports/key-world-energy-statistics-2021/supply
8
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report October 2023. OPEC,
2023.
The overwhelming majority of oil flowing out of the Persian Gulf is directed towards East Asia,
with China, Japan, and South Korea emerging as the principal importers. China, as the world's
largest importer of petroleum and the second-largest global economy, relies on the oil flowing
through the Strait of Hormuz for
approximately 45% of its supply.9
Japan,
with
the
third-largest economy,
world's
is even
more heavily dependent, with over
60% of its energy needs met by oil
and liquefied natural gas imported
through the Strait.10 South Korea,
the world's 10th largest global
economy, imports nearly 70% of
its oil from the Persian Gulf, with
oil constituting more than 40% of
its energy supplies.11 The Strait of
Hormuz,
therefore,
plays an
indispensable role in sustaining the economic engines of the world's second, third, and
tenth-largest economies.
In the event that the Strait of Hormuz were to be obstructed or closed for an extended duration,
the repercussions would be catastrophic. Not only would the primary source of revenue for the
eight nations bordering the Persian Gulf abruptly cease, but the cascading effects could
potentially trigger a global economic meltdown.
The criticality of this maritime passage is further underscored by the limited alternatives
available for transporting oil and natural gas in the event of a disruption. Saudi Arabia and the
United Arab Emirates possess crude oil and liquefied natural gas pipelines capable of diverting a
9
Center for Strategic and International Studies. "China's Energy Security: A New Era of Competition and a
Cooperation." CSIS, 2023.
10
Japan External Trade Organization. White Paper on International Trade 2023. JETRO, 2023.
11
Korea Institute for Energy Economics. Energy Outlook for Korea 2023. KIEE, 2023.
fraction of the output, but their capacity remains constrained. Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq
lack such infrastructure altogether, further emphasizing the Strait of Hormuz's role as an
irreplaceable artery for global energy supplies.
Given its unparalleled importance in facilitating global trade and ensuring the supply of vital
energy resources, the Strait of Hormuz has drawn the attention of numerous foreign powers and
empires, with the United States notably prominent among them. The United States has
established a significant military presence across several countries surrounding the Persian Gulf,
including Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq,
seven of the eight nations in the region. This military presence includes bases and installations,
as well as the United States Fifth Fleet headquartered in Bahrain, a formidable naval force
comprising over 15,000 sailors, two aircraft carriers, multiple vessels, and a multitude of aircraft.
The United States' deep involvement in the region primarily serves the dual purposes of ensuring
the uninterrupted flow of oil and countering Iran's influence. The relationship between the
United States and Iran has remained strained since 1980, marked by a lack of formal diplomatic
relations. The presence of the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain acts as a deterrent to potential disruptions in
the Strait of Hormuz. While Iran possesses a formidable military, the United States' superior
naval and air capabilities, coupled with the Fleet's proximity to the Strait, would likely secure
American naval and air dominance across the entire passage.
Recognizing its military limitations, Iran has focused on developing coastal defences and missile
systems to protect its side of the Strait. Furthermore, Iran possesses a significant stockpile of
maritime mines, which could be deployed to disrupt shipping in the narrow waters.
Although Iran may possess the theoretical capacity to disrupt traffic through the Strait of
Hormuz, such actions would undoubtedly elicit a forceful response from a coalition of nations,
potentially led by the United States and Saudi Arabia. The ensuing conflict would carry severe
consequences, both regionally and globally, underscoring the imperative of maintaining stability
in the region.
Rhea Abraham's article discusses the challenges, existing issues, and feasibility of the closure of
the Strait of Hormuz. Below are the key arguments from the text:12
1. US-Iran Tensions:
Iran's rise as a regional power, particularly under a militant Shiite theocracy, has challenged the
long-established Sunni-Arab regimes in and around the Gulf. The US and its ally, Israel, are
determined to thwart Iran's nuclear ambitions, even at the cost of strengthening their military
presence in the Strait of Hormuz. Today, the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet, as mentioned above,
headquartered in Bahrain, plays a central role in safeguarding the transit of vessels through the
Strait of Hormuz. The dynamics of U.S.-Iran naval relations remain complex and delicate.
Recent encounters between the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGC Navy) and U.S.
ships are a testament to the ongoing tensions in the region. These encounters underscore the
significance of maintaining open waterways and the potential for incidents that could escalate
into conflicts.
2. Iran's Threat to Close the Strait:
Iran possesses the capability and intent to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Such
disruptions could occur in response to US military actions or further sanctions imposed over
Iran's disputed nuclear program. The Iranians have conducted exercises showcasing their naval
capabilities, including shore-launched anti-shipping missiles and minelaying operations.
3. Vulnerability of Gulf States:
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could severely impact oil-dependent Gulf states. Saudi
Arabia, Qatar, and Oman would face losses of significant proportions, affecting their revenues
and economic stability. For Saudi Arabia, these losses could amount to 50-60% of its income.
Moreover, Iran's actions could disrupt oil supplies and increase oil prices globally, with potential
far-reaching consequences. The Iranian economy itself would also suffer.
12
Abraham, Rhea. "Closure of the Strait of Hormuz: Possibilities and Challenges for India." AIR POWER Journal,
vol. 8, no. 1, Spring 2013 (January-March).
4. Territorial Disputes:
Iran and the UAE have long-standing disagreements over the ownership of several islands near
the tanker routes to the Strait, including Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb Islands. In
particular, Abu Musa, which contains a significant oil deposit, is strategically located at the
entrance of the Strait of Hormuz. Control of this island is vital for Iran to secure its port of
Bandar Abbas, making it a potential flashpoint for conflict. The Tunb Islands are uninhabitable
but offer a valuable defensive position for controlling maritime traffic in the Strait.
5. Iran's Defensive Deterrence:
It is essential to recognize that Iran's rhetoric about closing the Strait of Hormuz is often part of
its defensive deterrence strategy. This strategy is designed to allow Iran to control the situation in
the region and avoid potential persecution from its rivals. Iran is well aware of the severe
consequences it would face with the closure of the Strait. Such action could lead to the diversion
of oil export routes by other Persian Gulf countries, and Iran's heavy dependence on imported
refined products, such as gasoline, would be congested with the closure. In essence, the closure
serves more as a strategic tool for Iran to deter adversaries than a feasible option for sustained
action.
In his study titled "Assessing the 'Law of the Sea': A Case for the US' Right of Passage in the
Strait of Hormuz," Bashir Ali Abbas explores the intricate legal, historical, and geopolitical
dimensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.13
1. UNCLOS and Transit Passage:
The legal framework governing the use of the Strait of Hormuz is underpinned by The United
Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), a landmark treaty that outlines principles
related to maritime boundaries, navigation rights, and jurisdiction. Oman's ratification of
UNCLOS is significant because it recognizes the right of transit passage through the strait,
ensuring the free flow of international shipping. However, Iran's position is more nuanced. Iran
13
Abbas, Bashir Ali. "Assessing the 'Law of the Sea': A Case for the US' Right of Passage in the Strait of Hormuz."
Centre for Internal and Regional Security, IPCS, January 2020.
has signed the UNCLOS but has imposed a restriction, stating that it would only acknowledge
the right of transit passage for states that have ratified the convention. This creates a potential
discrepancy in legal interpretations.
This legal complexity raises questions about whether Iran can legally close the Strait of Hormuz
entirely if it perceives its national security is threatened. The strait's configuration places most
shipping lanes within Omani territorial waters, making any threat or use of force by Iran to block
the strait illegal under international law. The freedom of navigation and transit passage is
paramount, and any disruption can have profound implications for global trade and security.
According to international law, no country has the authority to impose a blockade or close the
Strait. However, one major challenge arises from the fact that the United States has not ratified
UNCLOS. This absence of U.S. ratification raises concerns about American presence and control
in the region beyond the legal regulations set forth in UNCLOS.
2. Historical Context:
To comprehend the current dynamics of the Strait of Hormuz, it is crucial to revisit the historical
context. The Iran-Iraq War and the 'Tanker War' in the 1980s provide valuable insights. During
this time, there was a considerable threat to international shipping through the strait. The United
States took decisive action by launching Operation Earnest Will, escorting reflagged Kuwaiti
tankers through the strait to protect them from Iranian and Iraqi attacks.
This period was marked by a state of armed conflict or declared war under the Hague
Conventions of 1907. It is a fundamental principle in international relations that most treaty
relations do not continue during armed conflicts, except for those reflecting peremptory norms of
international law (Jus Cogens). During times of armed conflict, the concept of innocent passage
loses its importance.
The study by Dagobert L. Brito and Eytan Sheshinski offers an in-depth analysis of alternative
routes for transporting oil from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to the Red Sea, with a focus on the
strategic and economic implications of these alternatives.14 The study begins by highlighting the
vital importance of the Strait of Hormuz in the global oil trade. It underlines that 20% of the
world's oil supply transits through this narrow waterway, making it a critical chokepoint. The
dependence on this route poses a vulnerability due to potential threats and disruptions, especially
with Iran's ability to control or threaten to control it.
The authors examine alternative methods for transporting Middle Eastern oil, which could
reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. They propose adding more horsepower to pipeline
infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and connecting Kuwait to this network. By doing so, the capacity
to transport oil across Arabia to the ports of Yanbu and Mu'ajjiz on the Red Sea would be
significantly increased. This would require an estimated investment of around $500 million and
would allow the transportation of 10 to 12 million barrels of oil per day. Importantly, the cost per
barrel for this transportation would remain relatively low, under $1 per barrel.
The study emphasizes the strategic advantages of these alternative routes. By reducing
dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, these alternatives can mitigate the potential influence of
Iran over the region. They would also reduce the need for the U.S. Navy to protect tanker traffic
within the Persian Gulf, particularly within the range of Iranian anti-ship missiles.
The study ultimately raises the question of whether the investment required for these alternatives,
which amounts to around half a billion dollars, is justifiable. It contends that these alternatives
are valuable for ensuring a stable oil supply chain and reducing the risk of oil disruptions in the
event of conflicts or threats in the Strait of Hormuz. This investment provides a strategic
capability that can be employed as a deterrent against potential adversaries, ultimately
safeguarding the stability of the global oil supply.
These three readings collectively emphasize the critical importance of the Strait of Hormuz in
global trade and security. They stress that any disruptions in this waterway have far-reaching
14
Brito, Dagobert L. and Eytan Sheshinski. "Alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz." The Energy Journal, vol. 19, no.
2, 1998, pp. 135-147.
implications, including economic consequences, potential military conflicts, and the need for
legal frameworks to ensure freedom of navigation. While the articles provide a comprehensive
overview, they do not extensively explore the broader geopolitical factors driving tensions in the
region, such as the regional power struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Additionally, there is
limited discussion about potential diplomatic or conflict resolution mechanisms to address the
territorial disputes and ease tensions.
One alternative approach scholars could explore is the role of international diplomacy and
conflict resolution mechanisms to mitigate tensions in the region. Additionally, assessing the
economic and political feasibility of regional cooperation and agreements to safeguard the strait
could be a valuable avenue of research.
The articles collectively highlight the complex and sensitive nature of the issues surrounding the
Strait of Hormuz. While alternative routes for oil transportation offer potential solutions, the
underlying geopolitical tensions and territorial disputes remain significant challenges.
International diplomacy and cooperation are essential to ensuring stability in the region, and any
potential disruptions in the strait should be addressed through peaceful means.
In conclusion, the Strait of Hormuz stands as the most important and critical maritime
chokepoint on the planet. This narrow passage holds unparalleled significance due to its unique
confluence of geographic, economic, and geopolitical factors.
Geographically, it's a natural chokepoint created by the proximity of landmasses, making it a
strategic control point for maritime traffic. Economically, it serves as a gateway for a substantial
portion of the world's oil and natural gas trade, a lifeline for the global economy. Geopolitically,
the region surrounding the strait is fraught with tension, featuring long-standing disputes,
territorial conflicts, and power struggles that can quickly escalate into international crises.
The global reliance on the Strait of Hormuz is undeniable. Disruptions in this passage would
have a domino effect on global trade, oil prices, and the economies of nations across the world.
The vulnerabilities of the Gulf states, the potential for armed conflict, and the legal and
diplomatic complexities further underscore the strait's unparalleled importance.
Efforts to safeguard the stability and accessibility of this critical waterway are imperative. It is
not merely a regional concern but a global imperative to ensure that the flow of goods and energy
through the Strait of Hormuz remains uninterrupted. The strait's significance transcends borders
and national interests, impacting every corner of the globe. Therefore, it is the most vital
maritime chokepoint on the planet, where international cooperation, conflict resolution, and
diplomacy are essential to maintaining the world's economic and energy security.
REFERENCES:
1. Barden, Justine. "The Strait of Hormuz Is the World's Most Important Oil Transit Chokepoint."
U.S. Energy Information Administration EIA, 20 Jun. 2019.
2. “Review of Maritime Transport 2023.” UNCTAD, 27 Sept. 2023.
3. “Shipping and World Trade: Global Supply and Demand for Seafarers.” International Chamber of
Shipping.
4. International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2023. International Energy Agency, 2023.
5. “Petroleum | Energy, Products, and Facts.” Encyclopedia Britannica, 23 Aug. 1998.
6. Cordesman, Anthony H. "Iran, Oil, and the Strait of Hormuz." Arleigh A. Burke Chair in
Strategy, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 26 March 2007.
7. “Supply – Key World Energy Statistics 2021 – Analysis - IEA.” IEA, 2021.
8. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report October
2023. OPEC, 2023.
9. Center for Strategic and International Studies. "China's Energy Security: A New Era of
Competition and Cooperation." CSIS, 2023.
10. Japan External Trade Organization. White Paper on International Trade 2023. JETRO, 2023.
11. Korea Institute for Energy Economics. Energy Outlook for Korea 2023. KIEE, 2023.
12. Abraham, Rhea. "Closure of the Strait of Hormuz: Possibilities and Challenges for India." Air
Power Journal, vol. 8, no. 1, Spring 2013 (January-March).
13. Abbas, Bashir Ali. "Assessing the 'Law of the Sea': A Case for the US' Right of Passage in the
Strait of Hormuz." Centre for Internal and Regional Security, IPCS, January 2020.
14. Brito, Dagobert L. and Eytan Sheshinski. "Alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz." The Energy
Journal, vol. 19, no. 2, 1998, pp. 135-147.