1 Orbital Development: its Economic and Environmental Effects Isaac A Gans School of Engineering, University of British Columbia APSC 176 Engineering Communication Dr. Natalie Forssman December 7, 2022 2 Abstract In the last decade the amount of interest in space has grown in tandem with the amount of orbital launches, and it is for this reason that one must examine what will be done in space once the publicity has dried up. The most likely prevalent activities to take place in orbit in the near future all relate to the manufacturing of products for use in orbit and on earth, the benefits of which would improve the economy and quality of life of the general public. The industries and products that would benefit from orbital manufacturing are varied but include electronics, telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, and high strength alloys. Orbital manufacturing of space stations and satellites would also reduce the cost of research in orbit in addition to making manned missions beyond it possible. The environmental effects of this are important to consider, and after reviewing the data it can be concluded that they are limited at most. Background In recent years the public interest in space exploration has grown greatly, from news stories about space tourism via SpaceX or Blue Origin, to the launch of Artemis 1 which is the first in a series of missions planned by the United States’s National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to return to the moon to stay. This renewed interest has of course come with a large and steady increase in orbital launches. (Zafrane et. al. 2019) It is in this context that one must wonder what is there to be done in space once the publicity has faded? It turns out that there are many good reasons to engage in space activity outside of tourism or publicity seeking, such as scientific research, commercial and military space infrastructure such as telecommunications or global positioning system satellites, and the manufacturing of commercial goods. The focus of this paper is the latter, namely orbital manufacturing. After reading the facts, one must conclude that in aggregate, the development of an orbital manufacturing base would have great economic benefits in addition to a limited environmental impact. 3 Industrial benefits The development of orbital manufacturing would benefit a diverse set of industries, such as telecommunications, electronics, pharmaceuticals, high strength alloys, and many others. (Muzyka, 2019) The benefits to the electronics and telecommunications industries alone would be immense, for instance the level of quality of fiber optic cables made in microgravity is unmatched by those made on earth because of the unique conditions that space provides. The cables made in orbit are able to have a higher range of frequencies than those made on earth in addition to having lower transmission losses. (O’Callaghan, 2022) In short, this would mean that internet speeds could be made faster and more efficient at the same time. The telecommunications industry has already benefited from the commercialization of space with the introduction of telecommunications satellites, which have made the internet accessible in previously disconnected rural areas; however the satellite internet services are still more expensive than their ground based counterparts. This could be ameliorated by the refurbishment and maintenance of satellites in orbit, in fact proposals to do just that have received a lot of enthusiasm from satellite operators. (Lopatka, 2019) These are just a small segment of the innumerable ways in which telecommunications and electronics could benefit from orbital manufacturing. Research benefits Private and public research could also greatly benefit from orbital manufacturing, since currently the size of objects that can be launched is greatly limited by the volume that can fit in a particular rocket's faring or cargo cover. (Makaya et. al. 2022) This issue negatively affects the possible performance of space equipment of all kinds and could be made largely irrelevant by the production and assembly of satellite components in orbit. Producing components for assembly in orbit instead of launching them pre assembled would also reduce the cost of 4 missions, and manufacturing components in space likely will be what makes missions beyond earth’s orbit possible. (Makaya et. al 2022) All the previously mentioned candidate industries that would likely benefit from orbital manufacturing research would also benefit from the creation of larger space stations from materials gathered in space. This is a likely possibility because of the development of welding processes that work on raw metal from iron rich asteroids. (Evans Et. Al. 2017) The development of orbital manufacturing would therefore make it possible to do much more research in space in all fields while spending less money on launches. Environmental impacts The environmental impact of orbital development must be considered, since the demand for orbital launches has grown rapidly and will likely continue to grow in the future. Orbital rocket launches of course do cause pollution, however not all rocket fuels and oxidizers are equal in this regard. For instance, UDMH-NT (hydrazine-nitrogen tetroxide) is very toxic and produces dangerous exhaust (Kopak, 2019); while liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen are nontoxic and produce no carbon dioxide emissions. UDMH-NT has not been used as a primary propellant for orbital launches in the United States for decades, however it is still used in the Russian proton and Chinese long march rockets. It is however not used in any new rocket designs because of these and other drawbacks, and its use will likely continue to fall in the future. Another issue to consider other than fuel toxicity is carbon dioxide emissions, the primary culprit for carbon dioxide emissions in rocket launches is kerosine. The emissions from kerosine powered rocket launches can be easily compared to those from the aviation industry, which uses roughly 300 billion liters of kerosine per year, while in 1997 1.77 billion liters of kerosine were used in orbital launches. (Semenkov & Koroleva, 2022) It is therefore safe to say that the carbon dioxide emissions from orbital launches are of limited significance to the climate compared to other 5 sources. The last major possible environmental impact to consider is the impact of launches on the ozone layer, although the impacts on the stratospheric ozone layer are negligible more research is needed to confirm that this will remain true as launch numbers increase. (Semenkov & Koroleva, 2022) The environmental impacts of orbital development on human and environmental health, carbon dioxide emissions, and the ozone layer are therefore at worst small. Conclusion In conclusion, The development of an orbital manufacturing base in orbit would enable the creation of better products in many varied industries, reduce the cost of research of all kinds in orbit, and all while having a limited impact on the environment. It is for these reasons that the development of orbital manufacturing should be encouraged by the public, as well as supported by private and public space agencies alike. 6 References Bakaikina, N. V., Kenessov, B., Ul’yanovskii, N. V., & Kosyakov, D. S. (2018). Quantification of transformation products of rocket fuel unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine in soils using SPME and GC-MS. Talanta (Oxford), 184, 332-337. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.talanta.2018.02.047 Barnhart, D. A., & Rughani, R. (2020). On-orbit servicing ontology applied to recommended standards for satellites in earth orbit. Journal of Space Safety Engineering, 7(1), 83-98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsse.2020.02.002 Bukenov, B., Baimatova, N., & Kenessov, B. (2022). Quantification of transformation products of rocket fuel unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine in air using solidâphase microextraction. Journal of Separation Science, 45(2), 614-622. https://doi.org/10.1002/jssc.202100684 Evans, W. T., Neely, K. E., Strauss, A. M., & Cook, G. E. (2017). Weldability of an iron meteorite by friction stir spot welding: A contribution to in-space manufacturing. Acta Astronautica, 140, 452-458. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2017.09.001 Kamil Muzyka (2019) Space Manufacturing and Trade: Addressing Regulatory Issues, Astropolitics, 17:3, 141-163, DOI: 10.1080/14777622.2019.1675431 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/14777622.2019.1675431 Kenessov, B. N., Koziel, J. A., Grotenhuis, T., & Carlsen, L. (2010). Screening of transformation products in soils contaminated with unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine using headspace 7 SPME and GC–MS. Analytica Chimica Acta, 674(1), 32-39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aca.2010.05.040 Kopack, R. A. (2019). Rocket wastelands in kazakhstan: Scientific authoritarianism and the baikonur cosmodrome. Annals of the American Association of Geographers, 109(2), 556-567. https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2018.1507817 Longhurst, W. R., Cox, C. D., Gibson, B. T., Cook, G. E., Strauss, A. M., Wilbur, I. C., & Osborne, B. E. (2017). Development of friction stir welding technologies for in-space manufacturing. International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 90(1-4), 81-91. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00170-016-9362-1 Lopatka, A. (2018). Satellite repair and refueling demos may soon spur a new industry. Physics Today, 71(11), 26-29. https://doi.org/10.1063/PT.3.4066 Makaya, A., Pambaguian, L., Ghidini, T., Rohr, T., Lafont, U., & Meurisse, A. (2022). Towards out of earth manufacturing: Overview of the ESA materials and processes activities on manufacturing in space. CEAS Space Journal, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12567-022-00428-1 O'Callaghan, J. (2022). What goes up American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics. Semenkov, I., & Koroleva, T. (2022). Review on the environmental impact of emissions from space launches: A case study for areas affected by the russian space programme. Environmental Science and Pollution Research International, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23888-8 8 Sietzen, F., Jr. (2005). The greening of rocket propulsion. Aerospace America, 43(7), 28. Vergaaij, M., McInnes, C. R., & Ceriotti, M. (2021). Economic assessment of high-thrust and solar-sail propulsion for near-earth asteroid mining. Advances in Space Research, 67(9), 3045-3058. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2020.06.012 Zafrane, M.A., Boudjemai, A. & Boughanmi, N. Interactive design of space manufacturing systems, optimality and opportunity. Int J Interact Des Manuf 13, 773–796 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12008-018-0515-3