Exam 2 Review (Chapter 6, 7, 8) Professor: Dr. Max Owens Teaching Assistant: Alex Goyette Formulas to remember • probability = ππ’ππππ ππ ππ’π‘πππππ ππππ π πππππ π΄ p(A) = π‘ππ‘ππ ππ’ππππ ππ πππ π ππππ ππ’π‘πππππ • To find z-scores related to the probability of scores in a population : π−π π§= π • To find z-scores related to the probability of sample means: π§= π − π π standard error (ππ = ) π Standard Error of M standard error = ππ = π = π π2 π§ 1. The standard deviation of the distribution of sample means. 2. Provides a measure of how much distance is expected on average between M and μ. The Central Limit Theorem, shape and central tendency. • The Central limit theorem tells us what to expect when we draw a sample. • Shape = curve, normal or non-normal. – The distribution of sample means is normal when the population is normally distributed or the sample size, n > 30. • Central Tendency = π – The expected value of the sample mean M is equal to the population mean π. • Variability = Standard Error of M. 4 Steps of Hypothesis Testing 1. State the hypothesis( H0= ?, HA = ?). 2. Setting the criteria for a decision( α= ?). 3. Collect data and compute sample statistics( z=?). 4. Make a decision. Two-tailed vs One-tailed Hypothesis test • A hypothesis test has only two possible outcomes. Two-Tailed, Increase or Decrease One-Tailed, Increase One-Tailed, Decrease Effect Size 1. Effect size: The absolute magnitude of a treatment or experimental effect. ππππ ππππππππππ ππ‘ππππ‘ππππ‘ − π ππ π‘ππππ‘ππππ‘ πΆπβππ π π = = π π‘ππππππ πππ£πππ‘πππ π ′ Magnitude of d d = 0.2 d = 0.5 d = 0.8 Evaluation of Effect Size Small effect Medium effect Large effect Statistical Power • Power: Probability of correctly rejecting a false H0 – What proportion of samples would fall in the tails of the distribution if a treatment works. 98% Computing Power • Five steps to compute power 1. 2. 3. 4. Compute Standard Error (First Distribution). Find our z-critical boundary (First Distribution). Find the M of our critical boundary (First Distribution). Calculate z scores for the treatment effect (Second Distribution). 5. Find the proportion for the treatment z score = Power (Second Distribution). Factors Influencing Power • Size of the Treatment Effect: ο effect = ο power. – Both provide an indication of the strength or magnitude of a treatment effect. • Alpha (ο‘) Level: ο― ο‘ (e.g., from .05 to .01) = ο― power. • One-tailed vs. Two-tailed Tests: 1-tailed test = ο power. • Sample Size: ο sample size = ο power Review Quiz 10 questions highlighting central concepts of each chapter. Review Quiz 1. According to a recent report, the average American consumes 22.7 teaspoons of sugar each day (Cohen, August 2013). Assuming that the distribution is approximately normal with a standard deviation of σ=4.5, find each of the following values. A • How much daily sugar intake corresponds to the top 5% of the population Review Quiz 1. According to a recent report, the average American consumes 22.7 teaspoons of sugar each day (Cohen, August 2013). Assuming that the distribution is approximately normal with a standard deviation of σ=4.5, find each of the following values. A • How much daily sugar intake corresponds to the top 5% of the population? p = 0.05, z = ? Review Quiz 1. According to a recent report, the average American consumes 22.7 teaspoons of sugar each day (Cohen, August 2013). Assuming that the distribution is approximately normal with a standard deviation of σ=4.5, find each of the following values. A • How much daily sugar intake corresponds to the top 5% of the population? p = 0.05, z = 1.65 Review Quiz 1. According to a recent report, the average American consumes 22.7 teaspoons of sugar each day (Cohen, August 2013). Assuming that the distribution is approximately normal with a standard deviation of σ=4.5, find each of the following values. A • How much daily sugar intake corresponds to the top 5% of the population? p = 0.05, z= 1.65 X = π + zπ Review Quiz 1. According to a recent report, the average American consumes 22.7 teaspoons of sugar each day (Cohen, August 2013). Assuming that the distribution is approximately normal with a standard deviation of σ=4.5, find each of the following values. A • How much daily sugar intake corresponds to the top 5% of the population? p = 0.05, z= 1.65 X = π + zπ X = 22.7 + (1.65)(4.5) Review Quiz 1. According to a recent report, the average American consumes 22.7 teaspoons of sugar each day (Cohen, August 2013). Assuming that the distribution is approximately normal with a standard deviation of σ=4.5, find each of the following values. A • How much daily sugar intake corresponds to the top 5% of the population? p = 0.05, z= 1.65 X = π + zπ X = 22.7 + (1.65)(4.5) X = 30.125 Review Quiz 2. True or False T/F • The shape of a distribution of sample means is always normal T/F • As sample size increases, the value of the standard error decreases Review Quiz 2. True or False False • The shape is normal only if the population is normal or n > 30 Review Quiz 2. True or False standard error = ππ = True π π • Sample size is in the denominator of the equation so as n grows larger, standard error decreases Review Quiz 3. What is Standard error? A • the average spread of a set of scores in a population B • the probability of concluding that there is an effect when there is not. C • The standard deviation of the distribution of sample means Review Quiz 3. What is Standard error? A • the average spread of a set of scores in a population B • the probability of concluding that there is an effect when there is not. C • The standard deviation of the distribution of sample means What is Standard Error? SE = the average distance expected between µ and M Review Quiz 4. A normal population has μ = 60 with σ = 5; the distribution of sample means for samples of size n = 4 selected from this population would have an expected value of _____ A •5 B • 60 C • 30 D • 15 Review Quiz 4. A normal population has μ = 60 with σ = 5; the distribution of sample means for samples of size n = 4 selected from this population would have an expected value of _____ A •5 B • 60 C • 30 D • 15 Review Quiz 5. A normal distribution has a mean of μ=58 and a standard deviation of σ=12. Q • What is the probability of selecting a sample of n=9 scores with a mean less than M=52 ? Review Quiz 5. A normal distribution has a mean of μ=58 and a standard deviation of σ=12. Q • What is the probability of selecting a sample of n=9 scores with a mean less than M=52 ? ππ = π π Review Quiz 5. A normal distribution has a mean of μ=58 and a standard deviation of σ=12. Q • What is the probability of selecting a sample of n=9 scores with a mean less than M=52 ? ππ = π π = 12 9 = 12 = 3 4 Review Quiz 5. A normal distribution has a mean of μ=58 and a standard deviation of σ=12. Q • What is the probability of selecting a sample of n=9 scores with a mean less than M=52 ? ππ = 4 π − π π§= = ππ Review Quiz 5. A normal distribution has a mean of μ=58 and a standard deviation of σ=12. Q • What is the probability of selecting a sample of n=9 scores with a mean less than M=52 ? ππ = 4 π − π 52 − 58 π§= = = −1.5 ππ 4 Review Quiz 5. A normal distribution has a mean of μ=58 and a standard deviation of σ=12. Q • What is the probability of selecting a sample of n=9 scores with a mean less than M=52 ? ππ = 4 π − π 52 − 58 π§= = = −1.5 ππ 4 π π§ < −1.5 = 0.0668 Review Quiz 6. A sample n = 9 had a cohen’s d of .5 after treatment, with a population mean of µ = 80 and a standard deviation of σ = 12. What is the mean for the treated sample? A •M=6 B • M = 82 C • M = 86 D • Cannot answer without the sample error Review Quiz 6. A sample n = 9 had a cohen’s d of .5 after treatment, with a population mean of µ = 80 and a standard deviation of σ = 12. What is the mean for the treated sample? A •M=6 B • M = 82 C • M = 86 D • Cannot answer without the sample error Review Quiz 6. A sample n = 9 had a cohen’s d of .5 after treatment, with a population mean of µ = 80 and a standard deviation of σ = 12. What is the mean for the treated sample? Cohen’s d = .5 = ππ‘ππππ‘ππππ‘ − π ππ π‘ππππ‘ππππ‘ π ππ‘ππππ‘ππππ‘ − 80 12 Review Quiz 6. A sample n = 9 had a cohen’s d of .5 after treatment, with a population mean of µ = 80 and a standard deviation of σ = 12. What is the mean for the treated sample? .5 = ππ‘ππππ‘ππππ‘−80 12 .5(12) = ππ‘ππππ‘ππππ‘ − 80 Review Quiz 6. A sample n = 9 had a cohen’s d of .5 after treatment, with a population mean of µ = 80 and a standard deviation of σ = 12. What is the mean for the treated sample? .5 = ππ‘ππππ‘ππππ‘−80 12 80 + 6 = ππ‘ππππ‘ππππ‘ ππ‘ππππ‘ππππ‘ = 86 Review Quiz 7. A random sample(n=25) is selected from a normal population with a mean of μ=20 and a standard deviation of σ=10. After a treatment is administered to the individuals in the sample, the sample mean is found to be M=25 . Complete the following steps of the twotailed hypothesis test. 1 • What are the null and alternative hypotheses? 2 • Using a two-tailed test with α =0.05, what is the critical value? • What is the z-score associated with the mean for the treatment? • Pick one: Reject/fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is/ is not a significant effect of treatment. 3 4 Review Quiz 7. A random sample(n=25) is selected from a normal population with a mean of μ=20 and a standard deviation of σ=10. After a treatment is administered to the individuals in the sample, the sample mean is found to be M=25 . Complete the following steps of the two-tailed hypothesis test. 1 • What are the null and alternative hypotheses? Review Quiz 7. A random sample(n=25) is selected from a normal population with a mean of μ=20 and a standard deviation of σ=10. After a treatment is administered to the individuals in the sample, the sample mean is found to be M=25 . Complete the following steps of the two-tailed hypothesis test. 1 • What are the null and alternative hypotheses? Null H0: There is no effect of treatment; μtreatment = 20 Alternative H1: There is an effect of treatment; μtreatment ≠ 20 Review Quiz 7. A random sample(n=25) is selected from a normal population with a mean of μ=20 and a standard deviation of σ=10. After a treatment is administered to the individuals in the sample, the sample mean is found to be M=25 . Complete the following steps of the hypothesis test. 2 • Using a two-tailed test with α =0.05, what is the critical value? Review Quiz 7. A random sample(n=25) is selected from a normal population with a mean of μ=20 and a standard deviation of σ=10. After a treatment is administered to the individuals in the sample, the sample mean is found to be M=25 . Complete the following steps of the hypothesis test. 2 • Using a two-tailed test with α =0.05, what is the critical value? P = 0.025 in each tail; Review Quiz 7. A random sample(n=25) is selected from a normal population with a mean of μ=20 and a standard deviation of σ=10. After a treatment is administered to the individuals in the sample, the sample mean is found to be M=25 . Complete the following steps of the hypothesis test. 2 • Using a two-tailed test with α =0.05, what is the critical value? P = 0.025 in each tail; using Column C -> z = 1.96 Review Quiz 7. A random sample(n=25) is selected from a normal population with a mean of μ=20 and a standard deviation of σ=10. After a treatment is administered to the individuals in the sample, the sample mean is found to be M=25 . Complete the following steps of the hypothesis test. 3 • What is the z-score associated with the mean for the treatment? Review Quiz 7. A random sample(n=25) is selected from a normal population with a mean of μ=20 and a standard deviation of σ=10. After a treatment is administered to the individuals in the sample, the sample mean is found to be M=25 . Complete the following steps of the hypothesis test. 3 • What is the z-score associated with the mean for the treatment? ππ = π π ;π§= π−π ππ Review Quiz 7. A random sample(n=25) is selected from a normal population with a mean of μ=20 and a standard deviation of σ=10. After a treatment is administered to the individuals in the sample, the sample mean is found to be M=25 . Complete the following steps of the hypothesis test. 3 • What is the z-score associated with the mean for the treatment? ππ = π π Review Quiz 7. A random sample(n=25) is selected from a normal population with a mean of μ=20 and a standard deviation of σ=10. After a treatment is administered to the individuals in the sample, the sample mean is found to be M=25 . Complete the following steps of the hypothesis test. 3 • What is the z-score associated with the mean for the treatment? ππ = π π = 10 25 = 10 5 =2 Review Quiz 7. A random sample(n=25) is selected from a normal population with a mean of μ=20 and a standard deviation of σ=10. After a treatment is administered to the individuals in the sample, the sample mean is found to be M=25 . Complete the following steps of the hypothesis test. 3 • What is the z-score associated with the mean for the treatment? ππ = 2 π − π π§= ππ Review Quiz 7. A random sample(n=25) is selected from a normal population with a mean of μ=20 and a standard deviation of σ=10. After a treatment is administered to the individuals in the sample, the sample mean is found to be M=25 . Complete the following steps of the hypothesis test. 3 • What is the z-score associated with the mean for the treatment? ππ = 2 π§= π−π ππ = 25 −20 2 = 2.5 Review Quiz 7. A random sample(n=25) is selected from a normal population with a mean of μ=20 and a standard deviation of σ=10. After a treatment is administered to the individuals in the sample, the sample mean is found to be M=25 . Complete the following steps of the hypothesis test. 4 • Pick one: Reject/fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is/ is not a significant effect of treatment. Review Quiz 7. A random sample(n=25) is selected from a normal population with a mean of μ=20 and a standard deviation of σ=10. After a treatment is administered to the individuals in the sample, the sample mean is found to be M=25 . Complete the following steps of the hypothesis test. 4 • Pick one: Reject/fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is/ is not a significant effect of treatment. • Z critical < Z treatment score Review Quiz 7. A random sample(n=25) is selected from a normal population with a mean of μ=20 and a standard deviation of σ=10. After a treatment is administered to the individuals in the sample, the sample mean is found to be M=25 . Complete the following steps of the hypothesis test. 4 • Pick one: Reject/fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is/ is not a significant effect of treatment. • Z critical < Z treatment score • 1.96 < 2.5 Review Quiz 8. A treatment is expected to lower cholesterol by 30 points for a population with µ = 240 (σ = 30). For a sample of n = 9, what is the probability of a successful treatment? (α = .05; two-tail test) A • 1.04 B • .3508 C • .8508 D • .1492 Computing Power • Five steps to compute power 1. 2. 3. 4. Compute Standard Error (First Distribution). Find our z-critical boundary (First Distribution). Find the M of our critical boundary (First Distribution). Calculate z scores for the treatment effect (Second Distribution). 5. Find the proportion for the treatment z score = Power (Second Distribution). Computing Power Treatment results in a 30 point reduction. µ = 240, σ = 30. What is the power of a two tailed hypothesis test with n = 9, α = .05? Computing Power Treatment results in a 30 point reduction. µ = 240, σ = 30. What is the power of a two tailed hypothesis test with n = 9, α = .05? µafter treatment = 240 – 30 = 210 Computing Power Treatment results in a 30 point reduction. µ = 240, σ = 30. What is the power of a two tailed hypothesis test with n = 9, α = .05? µafter treatment = 210 Computing Power Treatment results in a 30 point reduction. µ = 240, σ = 30. What is the power of a two tailed hypothesis test with n = 9, α = .05? µafter treatment = 210 1. Compute Standard Error. Computing Power Treatment results in a 30 point reduction. µ = 240, σ = 30. What is the power of a two tailed hypothesis test with n = 9, α = .05? µafter treatment = 210 1. Compute Standard Error. ππ = π π = 30 9 = 30 3 = 10 Computing Power Treatment results in a 30 point reduction. µ = 240, σ = 30. What is the power of a two tailed hypothesis test with n = 9, α = .05? µafter treatment = 210 1. Compute Standard Error. ππ = 10 2. Find our critical boundary, α = .05 = z = Computing Power Treatment results in a 30 point reduction. µ = 240, σ = 30. What is the power of a two tailed hypothesis test with n = 9, α = .05? µafter treatment = 210 1. Compute Standard Error. ππ = 10 2. Find our critical boundary, α = .05 = z = -1.96. Computing Power Treatment results in a 30 point reduction. µ = 240, σ = 30. What is the power of a two tailed hypothesis test with n = 9, α = .05? µafter treatment = 210 1. Compute Standard Error. ππ = 10 2. Find our critical boundary, α = .05 = z = -1.96. 3. Find the M of our critical boundary. Computing Power Treatment results in a 30 point reduction. µ = 240, σ = 30. What is the power of a two tailed hypothesis test with n = 9, α = .05? µafter treatment = 210 1. Compute Standard Error. ππ = 10 2. Find our critical boundary, α = .05 = z = -1.96. 3. Find the M of our critical boundary. • π§= π−π ππ = π΄ = π + π ππ΄ Computing Power Treatment results in a 30 point reduction. µ = 240, σ = 30. What is the power of a two tailed hypothesis test with n = 9, α = .05? µafter treatment = 210 1. Compute Standard Error. ππ = 10 2. Find our critical boundary, α = .05 = z = -1.96. 3. Find the M of our critical boundary. • π΄ = π + π ππ΄ = πππ + (−π. ππ) ππ Computing Power Treatment results in a 30 point reduction. µ = 240, σ = 30. What is the power of a two tailed hypothesis test with n = 9, α = .05? µafter treatment = 210 1. Compute Standard Error. ππ = 10 2. Find our critical boundary, α = .05 = z = -1.96. 3. Find the M of our critical boundary. • π΄ = π + π ππ΄ = πππ. ππ Computing Power Treatment results in a 30 point reduction. µ = 240, σ = 30. What is the power of a two tailed hypothesis test with n = 9, α = .05? µafter treatment = 210 ππ΄ = ππ, M = 220.40. 4. Calculate z scores for the treatment effect. Computing Power Treatment results in a 30 point reduction. µ = 240, σ = 30. What is the power of a two tailed hypothesis test with n = 9, α = .05? µafter treatment = 210 ππ΄ = ππ, M = 220.40. 4. Calculate z scores for the treatment effect. π − π π§= π = ππ΄ = π Computing Power Treatment results in a 30 point reduction. µ = 240, σ = 30. What is the power of a two tailed hypothesis test with n = 9, α = .05? µafter treatment = 210 ππ΄ = ππ, M = 220.40. 4. Calculate z scores for the treatment effect. π − π 220.40 − 210 10.40 π§= = = 1.04 π = 30 10 ππ΄ = π 9 Computing Power Treatment results in a 30 point reduction. µ = 240, σ = 30. What is the power of a two tailed hypothesis test with n = 9, α = .05? µafter treatment = 210 ππ΄ = ππ, M = 220.40, z = 1.04 5. Find the proportion for the treatment z score = Power. Computing Power Treatment results in a 30 point reduction. µ = 240, σ = 30. What is the power of a two tailed hypothesis test with n = 9, α = .05? µafter treatment = 210 ππ΄ = ππ, M = 220.40, z = 1.04 5. Find the proportion for the treatment z score = Power. Which Column? Computing Power Treatment results in a 30 point reduction. µ = 240, σ = 30. What is the power of a two tailed hypothesis test with n = 9, α = .05? µafter treatment = 210 ππ΄ = ππ, M = 220.40, z = 1.04 5. Find the proportion for the treatment z score = Power. Which Column? (B) Computing Power Treatment results in a 30 point reduction. µ = 240, σ = 30. What is the power of a two tailed hypothesis test with n = 9, α = .05? µafter treatment = 210 ππ΄ = ππ, M = 220.40, z = 1.04 5. Find the proportion for the treatment z score = Power. Which Column? (B) = z = 1.04 = .8508 Review Quiz 8. A treatment is expected to lower cholesterol by 30 points for a population with µ = 240 (σ = 30). For n = 9, at α = .05 (two-tailed), what is the probability of a successful treatment? A • 1.04 B • .3508 C • .8508 D • .1492 Review Quiz 9. Which of the following accurately describes the critical region for a hypothesis test? A • Outcomes that have a low probability if the null hypothesis is true B • Outcomes that have a high probability if the null hypothesis is true C • Outcomes that have a low probability regardless of whether the null hypothesis is true D • Outcomes that have a high probability regardless of whether the null hypothesis is true Review Quiz 9. Which of the following accurately describes the critical region for a hypothesis test? A • Outcomes that have a low probability if the null hypothesis is true B • Outcomes that have a high probability if the null hypothesis is true C • Outcomes that have a low probability regardless of whether the null hypothesis is true D • Outcomes that have a high probability regardless of whether the null hypothesis is true Review Quiz 9. Which of the following accurately describes the critical region for a hypothesis test? Review Quiz 10. A researcher uses a hypothesis test to evaluate H0: µ = 80. Which combination of factors is most likely to result in rejecting the null hypothesis? A • σ = 5 and n = 25 B • σ = 5 and n = 50 C • σ = 10 and n = 25 D • σ = 10 and n = 50 Review Quiz 10. A researcher uses a hypothesis test to evaluate H0: µ = 80. Which combination of factors is most likely to result in rejecting the null hypothesis? A • σ = 5 and n = 25 B • σ = 5 and n = 50 C • σ = 10 and n = 25 D • σ = 10 and n = 50 Review Quiz 10. A researcher uses a hypothesis test to evaluate H0: µ = 80. Which combination of factors is most likely to result in rejecting the null hypothesis? B • σ = 5 and n = 50 ππ = π π • We want a low SE( why?) • Less variation between sample means • More likely to detect a true effect • Large n decreases SE (denominator) • Small π decreases SE (numerator) Homework & Reading Chapter 8 Homework is due FRIDAY, 10/6. Practice Exam 2 is available. Exam 2 will open today after class and close SUNDAY, 10/8. Extra Practice Answers • Answers for the extra practice questions on the following slide Review Quiz 1. USFSP has four fraternities. If the selection of “Best Fraternity” is completely random (it’s not, but let’s assume it is), how likely is it that the same fraternity would be selected 3 times in a row? A B C D • 1.56% • 15.6% • 25% • 4% Review Quiz 2. USFSP has four fraternities. If the selection of “Best Fraternity” is completely random (it’s not, but let’s assume it is), how likely is it that the same fraternity would be selected 3 times in a row? probability = p(A) ππ’ππππ ππ ππ’π‘πππππ ππππ π πππππ π΄ = π‘ππ‘ππ ππ’ππππ ππ πππ π ππππ ππ’π‘πππππ probability = p(A and A and A) = p(A) * p(A) * p(A) Review Quiz 2. USFSP has four fraternities. If the selection of “Best Fraternity” is completely random (it’s not, but let’s assume it is), how likely is it that the same fraternity would be selected 3 times in a row? probability = p(A and A and A) = p(A) * p(A) * p(A) = ¼ * ¼ * ¼ = 0.0156 Review Quiz 2. USFSP has four fraternities. If the selection of “Best Fraternity” is completely random (it’s not, but let’s assume it is), how likely is it that the same fraternity would be selected 3 times in a row? A B C D • 1.56% • 15.6% • 25% • 4% Review Quiz 2. According to a recent report, the average American consumes 22.7 teaspoons of sugar each day (Cohen, August 2013). Assuming that the distribution is approximately normal with a standard deviation of σ=4.5, find each of the following values. B • What percent of people consume less than 18 teaspoons of sugar a day? Review Quiz 1. According to a recent report, the average American consumes 22.7 teaspoons of sugar each day (Cohen, August 2013). Assuming that the distribution is approximately normal with a standard deviation of σ=4.5, find each of the following values. B • What percent of people consume less than 18 teaspoons of sugar a day? π−π π§= π X= 18 µ=22.7 Review Quiz 1. According to a recent report, the average American consumes 22.7 teaspoons of sugar each day (Cohen, August 2013). Assuming that the distribution is approximately normal with a standard deviation of σ=4.5, find each of the following values. B • What percent of people consume less than 18 teaspoons of sugar a day? π§= π−π 18−22.7 = π 4.5 Review Quiz 1. According to a recent report, the average American consumes 22.7 teaspoons of sugar each day (Cohen, August 2013). Assuming that the distribution is approximately normal with a standard deviation of σ=4.5, find each of the following values. B • What percent of people consume less than 18 teaspoons of sugar a day? π§= π−π 18−22.7 = =-1.04 π 4.5 Review Quiz 1. According to a recent report, the average American consumes 22.7 teaspoons of sugar each day (Cohen, August 2013). Assuming that the distribution is approximately normal with a standard deviation of σ=4.5, find each of the following values. B • What percent of people consume less than 18 teaspoons of sugar a day? π§ = -1.04 P( z < -1.04)= 0.1492 = 14.92% X=-1.04 µ=0 Review Quiz 3. True or False. Review Quiz 3. True or False. T/F • Increasing the sample size will also increase the effect size Review Quiz 3. True or False. False • Sample size does not affect Cohen’s d ππππ ππππππππππ ππ‘ππππ‘ππππ‘ − π ππ π‘ππππ‘ππππ‘ πΆπβππ π π = = π π‘ππππππ πππ£πππ‘πππ π ′