Macy’s: A giant in trouble1 1. INTRODUCTION Macy's Inc. is an American holding listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The company is a leader in retail sales in the United States being the owner of the biggest store chains as Macy's and Bloomingdale's. The company sells a wide range of products, including clothing and accessories for men, women and children. In addition, stores belonging to Macy's Inc. offer cosmetics, home furnishings and other consumer goods. Most stores are located in urban or suburban areas, mainly in populous places in the United States. Beginnings of Macy's Inc. we can find out in 1830, when John Shillito founded a company called Shillito's, which was the first department store in Cincinnati, in Ohio. Until today, Macy's headquarters is in the same city, in addition the company also has its office in New York City. Source: Macy’s Inc. Figure 1. Macy’s Inc. Logo The company operates over 690 department stores under the Macy's and Bloomingdale's brands and about 160 specialist stores in 44 states and the District of Columbia in the USA, as well as outside the United States, e.g. in Guam and Puerto Rico. As of February 3, 2018, the company's activity was conducted through the following store chains: 1 Macy’s, Bloomingdale’s, Bloomingdale’s The Outlet, Case written by Nirali Singh, Karol Bąk and Yawen Pan; and supervised by Oriol Amat, UPF Barcelona School of Management, 2019. 1 Macy’s Backstage, Bluemercury, Inc, Macy’s China Limited. In addition, Bloomingdale's in Dubai (United Arab Emirates) and Al Zahra (Kuwait) operates on the basis of license agreements with Al Tayer Insignia - a company of Al Tayer Group, LLC (holding company operating in the United Arab Emirates, founded in 1979). 1.1 HISTORY Known for one of the biggest stores in the world, Macy’s is famous as one of the biggest department stores in USA. Their story started in 1858 when Rowland Hussey Macy’s established his first store in New York City. The store contained mostly dry goods, but the location was far away from other dry stores at the time. Still, the store grew quickly as they bought neighbouring buildings step by step. Early on, they were innovative in order to draw customers like creating Santa Claus exhibitions and illuminated window displays. The brothers Isidor and Nathan Straus bought the store in 1985 and moved it to Herald Square 7 years later where the famous Macy’s Herald store lies today. Early 1920s they started expanding to other cities. The first expansions happened when they bought existing companies in other cities. They renamed them into Macy’s and brought their innovative concepts to the new locations. The company grew across United States, especially around New York City. The most important year in the company’s history is 1994, when Macy’s merged with Federated Department Stores (FDS). Federated was a big department store operator owning over 20 distinct brands. The changed its name to Federated Department Stores but changed many of stores into Macy’s stores. The following years they restructured themselves into a more united image using Macy’s as their main brand. This rebranding was not without controversy as many local stores with long history became Macy’s stores in the early 2000s. This encourage many protests, especially around Chicago where Marchall Fields was a popular store. In February 27, 2007, the Federated Department Stores Inc. announced that the company's name will be reverted to Macy's Group, Inc. By March 28 the company has changed its plans for a new name, deciding finally at Macy's, Inc. 2 In March 2005, the number of Macy's stores increased to around 425 in the whole country. In addition, it serves its clients through the website www.macys.com. In 2015, as technology and new lifestyles made a big impact on shopping habits the company made their first announcement that they had to close stores and lay off workers. As of 2018 they have closed over a hundred stores and fired over 20.000 people. Their stocks have decreased with over 10% each year last three years and there are companies ready to buy the rest of the company with its 880 stores. Presenting the development history of Macy's Inc. it is impossible to skip two store chains belonging to the company. They are Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury. Bloomingdale's Inc. is an American department store chain that was founded by brothers Joseph and Lyman Bloomingdale in 1861. In 1994, it became a part of Federated Department Stores Inc., which is why it is currently a daughter company of Macy's Inc. From 2017 there are 38 full-range stores and 17 outlets under the Bloomingdale's name operating in the United States. Bluemercury is a network of American beauty salons founded in 1999 by Marla Malcolm Beck and Barry Beck in Georgetown, Washington, DC. Stores sell cosmetics, as well as face and spa treatments. Macy's has launched Bluemercury services in its stores as well increased the number of free-standing stores under the name Bluemercury. Few important moments in the history of Macy’s are: 1858 1861 1902 1912 1924 2005 2008 2015 2017 2018 Rowland H. Macy’s opens R. H. Macy’s & Co., as a dry goods store in New York City The red star first appeared next to the Macy's logo, which was a replica of a tattoo Roland Hussey Macy’s had on his forearm when he was a Nantucket sailor in his teenage years Macy's became the nation's first building to have modern escalators—made of wood— installed Isidor and Ida Straus, the former co-owners of Macy's, died in the sinking of the Titanic (today, a plaque in their honour hangs inside the memorial entrance on the main floor) Macy’s first Thanksgiving Day Parade, which became a tradition in New York City since then. Macy's had 240 locations, mainly in Eastern and Western Coast. The number of Macy's stores increased to around 425 in the whole count Macy’s consolidated three divisions - Macy's North into Macy's East, Macy's Northwest into Macy's West; and Macy's Midwest into Macy's South Closing of multiple stores and laying off workers Macy’s net sales were $25.78 billion. However, few stores sales fell, while few struggled to remain open in previous years due to high competition More than 100 stores closed and 20.000 people fired. 880 stores still intact. Stock value plummeting each year. 3 1.2 BUSINESS DESCRIPTION Macy's, Inc. as one of the largest US companies is mainly combined with the activities of luxury department stores. It is a multi-channel retail organization that runs not only stores but also internet store and mobile applications. The company sells a wide range of goods such as clothing and accessories for men, women and children, cosmetics; home accessories, and other consumer goods. The company offers many brands in its stores. These are both own brands as well related brands. The main brands offered in Macy's, Inc.'s chain stores are: Alfani, American Rag, Aqua, Bar III, Belgique, Charter Club, Club Room, Epic Threads, First Impressions, Giani Bernini, Greg Norman for Tasso Elba, Holiday Lane, Home Design, Collection Hotel, Hudson Park, Ideology, INC, Jenni, JM Collection, John Ashford, Karen Scott, Lune + Aster, M-61, Maison Jules, Martha Stewart Collection, Material Girl, Morgan Taylor, Oake, Sky, Style & Co., Sutton Studio, Tasso Elba, Thalia Sodi. The company's retail operations are seasonal and characterized by high share of sales and operating revenues in November and December. Working capital requirements fluctuate throughout the year, increasing in mid-summer in anticipation of the autumn merchandising season. They also grow significantly before the holiday season, when the company reaches a higher level of inventory. In addition, Macy's, Inc. has many subsidiaries that provide various functions support for retail operations in an integrated manner, covering the entire company. Down these companies include: 1. FDS Bank; 2. Macy’s Systems and Technology, Inc.; 3. Macy’s Merchandising Group, Inc, (MMG); 4. Macy’s Logistics and Operations; FDS Bank is a subsidiary of a company that provides credit services for some collection, customer service and credit services for various credit cards accounts. Macy's Systems and Technology, Inc. is in full possession of Macy's, Inc. and provides data processing services and operational information management in the field company's operations, excluding Bluemercury and Macy's China Limited. Macy's Merchandising Group, Inc. (MMG) - a 100% 4 subsidiary of Macy's, Inc and its subsidiary Macy's Merchandising Group International, LLC, are responsible for design, development and marketing of private label brands and some licensed brands. Macy's Logistics and Operations is a division owned by the company Macy's, Inc. and provides services in the field of warehousing and distribution of goods. 2. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS AND COMPETITORS 2.1 INDUSTRY The department stores market in the United States is very large and represented by many well-known companies. However, in recent years, it continued its long-term decline. This was mainly due to competition from the electronic trading, which accelerated declines. Forecasts indicate that within five years to 2023, the trend will continue, but department stores try to reverse this trend, for example, by introducing new strategies. Such activities of enterprises in this industry may lead to changes on market. Competition from e-commerce has a negative impact in the short term, however, it positively affects the activity of department stores in the long run, because they see their chances in the development of e-commerce and start by themselves offer your goods online. According to an IBISWorld report from May 2018, in the United States were 7,535 businesses classified in the department store industry in which 93,760 people were employed. Annual revenues in this industry amounted to $ 155 billion, however, in the years 2013-2018 the annual loss of this sector amounted to 3,3. The forecasts for the coming years are also promising successive drops in the industry. As mentioned at the beginning of this subsection in the USA in addition to Macy's Inc., operates many companies in the department store industry. The list below presents the most recognizable entities on the American market: Barneys New York Bealls Belk The Bon-Ton Boscov’s Burlington Dillards’s Hudson’s Bay Company J.C. Penney Lord & Taylor Neiman Marcus Nordstrom Sears Stage Stores Target Corporation Von Maur T.J. Maxx Lord & Taylor 5 Moreover, Macy’s Inc. has a lot of competitors form the Europe, which also operate in the United States of America: H&M Zara Massimo Dutti Topshop Next 2.2 SWOT ANALYSIS Strengths Macy’s uses omnichannel strategy to strengthen its position and to maximize the consumers’ experience. Bloomingdale's outlet, Macy's Backstage store, Bluemercury, and online sales platform all together allows Macy’s to improve the customers experience. Macy’s Online platform allows the customers to place orders using any devices in a flexible way. Macy's enjoys a high business credibility and worthiness. This accreditation has made Macy's to receive an exemplary rating of A+ to F. The company has received this rating because it is committed to good faith when resolving issues related to customers. The company stocks a variety of clothing ranging from star brands like Calvin Klein, Michael Kors and Ralph Lauren among others. Macy's has individualized merchandise offering, for example, it utilizes location-based technology to offer more personalized recommendation and discounts (Singh, 2012). This helps the company to improve customer involvement and strengthen its promotional and marketing activities. Weaknesses Macy’s has a high employee turnover with low employees’ engagement. High overheads associated with scale could be explained by the ineffective leadership of Macy’s and the lack of training. According to the feedback of employees of Macy’s (from glasswork website), there is a flawed scorecard system which hurts the employees. They are measured by scorecard but not the management team. Furthermore, there is still limited global brand recognition. In addition to it, there is no exclusivity in the products that Macy’s has to offer. 6 Opportunities The current business of Macy’s is concentrated in US market, however the company’s has the huge opportunity of international expansion such as to Dubai, India and Asia. The company’s online platform (ecommerce) also helps to improve customers experience and increase the global market share of the company. The company is also privileged to witness a growing market for luxurious items in the beauty industry, and this is an opportunity that Macy's can benefit from, for example, Macy's Bluemercury store can offer an opportunity for the company to stock luxury cosmetic products as well as providing spa services. This can give the company a new growth channel. Threats The main threat of Macy’s is the intensive competition. Walmart, Amazon and Kohl’s are the main threats of Macy’s. The main rival of offline segment is Walmart while the online rival is amazon. the company must look into ways of meeting the changing customer preferences and seal its market position. Discounts stores such as Wal-Mart tend to offer very competitive price unlike Macy’s. This puts Macy's in a risky situation during tough economic periods. Customers are likely to walk away from the company when prices are unfavourable for them. Post economic crisis there has been a shift in consumer's consumption behaviour, people tend to spend their income saving on technology and experiences rather than clothing. 2.3 MAIN COMPETITORS Macy’s has been facing a tough competition from many rivals in the industry. Ecommerce has hurt the industry business more than the internal competition. However, in the year 2018 Macy’s performance by segments has improved more than its rivals. Few of the main competitors are mentioned below (compared on similarity in size and other factors): TJX Companies INC Kohl’s Group Ross Stores INC JC Penney Co INC Bed Bath & Beyond INC Dillards INC Burlington Nordstrom 7 SALES 2018 Macy’s has maintained a second position (2018 3rd Quarter) in sales among the above competitors. Macy’s sales of (approx) 25 million $ was only surpassed by the sales of TJX amounting to (approx) 36 million $ in 2018. Macy’s vs Competitors: Sales, Source: Own STOCK GROWTH 2018 Compared with other competitors we can observe that Macy’s performance has been better than its rivals. This is visible by comparing the Year to date (YTD%). Macy’s vs Competitors: YTD stock growth, Source: Own In 2018, there has been a 15.58% value increase for Macy’s stock in contrast to TJX, who has most sales in 2018 even then, they have not been performing well in the stock market and has a YTD decrease in stock value. TOTAL SEGMENT MARKET SHARE 2018 With revenue growth of 2.33% in 2018, Macy’s has been able to increase its market share in comparison to its competitors. 8 Macy’s vs Competitors: Market share, Source: CSIMarket REVENUE GROWTH The department store chains have been faced with a very tough competition from e-commerce sites in the last few years. However, Macy’s has been trying to keep ahead of this raw competition by using new strategies and has been able to maintain a positive revenue growth in comparison to its competitors. Macy’s vs Competitors: company revenue growth, Source: CSIMarket NET INCOME COMPARISON Macy’s net Income in the 3 quarter 2018 grew year on year by 82.35 %, faster than average growth of Macy’s competitors of 3.05 %. Macy’s vs Competitors: Net Income, Source: CSIMarket 9 NET MARGIN vs TOTAL COSTS Macy’s vs Competitors: Net Margin to Total costs, Source: CSIMarket Macy’s net margin is of 1.15% while the competition has earned a net margin of 2.93% over their total costs. It’s lower than that of competition, but when compared to previous years it shows a declining trend. Conclusively, Macy’s has been able to keep a positive revenue and a respectable margin in comparison to its competitors in the industry. Macy’s has managed to maintain good sales even with a rising competition from e-commerce sites. They are working on new strategies to keep up with the changing industry and maintain a positive margin. 3. PRESENT SITUATION 3.1 CUSTOMERS, DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS AND 4 PS ANALYSIS CUSTOMERS The main target of Macy’s are the American middle class who prefer quality products at reasonable prices. The company’s stores under the Bloomingdale’s brand offer high-end customers an assortment of established brands such as Armani, Burberry, Chanel and Christian Dior. Hispanic consumers also plays an important role in the US market as their numbers are increasing. Currently, Macy’s has also been targeting millennials with other customers. The company has launched several collections specifically aimed at Millennials, including QMack, Maison Jules, and Bar III Carnaby. Macy’s caters to the tastes of multicultural buyers, who represent a major portion of its customers. That is why one of Macy’s core strategies is My Macy’s, which focuses on 10 localizing product assortment based on store location. Macy’s ensures that local tastes and preferences are reflected in the merchandise size, fit, style, and colour of a particular store. DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL AND 4P ANALYSIS As we mentioned previously, Macy’s is using omnichannel strategy to improve the consumer experience and also to acquire new customers. Product & Services Price Provides wide range array of apparel for Offering affordable prices women, men and children Constant sales, coupons and special Goods for home offers Beauty, hair, fragrances and cosmetics Additional saving through loyalty products. programs Provide the customers the option to consult with professional personal stylistics / shoppers. Promotion Place and Distribution Tv and Radio ads More than 700 stores, point sales. Magazines Online platform, ecommerce Macy.com. Online advertisement International shipping available SEM, paid search KEY SUCCESS FACTORS: Macy’s KSF are the following: Continuous innovation in order to adapt to the market Using the Omnichannel strategy: “Be everywhere, do everything, and never fail to astonish the customer”. This has become Macy’s mission, and it is as true for Macy’s today as it was over 100 years ago. Omnichannel Strategy allows Macy to service the customer more efficiently, striving to seamlessly integrate our stores, online and mobile app through use of cutting-edge technology as well as guide a streamlined workforce wired to maximize opportunities across sales channels. My Stylist – free personal shopping service 11 Loyalty program that provides discounts, benefits and offerings to credit card members Magic Selling program trains sales associates to step beyond their day-to-day tasks to make customers happy. Plenti – rewards program to earn and redeem points with Macy’s and its partners (i.e. Exxon, AT&T, Hulu, etc.). Through My Macy’s initiative, Macy’s adjusts its merchandise assortments at local stores and online to reflect the customer’ regionalized tastes and desires. 3.2 STRATEGY – NORTH STAR STRATEGY Macy’s struggles with many problems, especially connected with e-commerce competitors this led the Board of the holding to create a new strategy, called “North Star Strategy”. It was presented in 2017, by Jeff Gennette – CEO of Macy’s Inc. The name of the strategy is of course linked with the logo of the company, which is a red star. The new strategy is based on 5 points. 1. From Familiar to Favourite – Consumer research confirms the Macy’s brand is well-known and well-loved in the USA and growing across the world. Actions in this point include understanding and anticipating its customers’ needs and strengthening its fashion authority, as well as executing initiatives around its loyalty and pricing strategies. 2. It must be Macy’s – The company delivers the products and experiences its customers love and can only find with Macy’s. This includes styles and home fashion for every day and special occasions, from its leading private brands, as well as exclusive national brands or assortments found only at Macy’s. It makes the company’s products unique and desirable. 3. Every Experience Matters – The biggest Macy’s asset is the ability to combine the human touch in its physical stores with cutting-edge technology. It is enhancing is customers’ experience as they explore Macy’s assortments, find their favourite styles, sizes and colours, and receive their purchase through the shopping channels they prefer. Macy’s mobile app and digital capabilities complement the store experience and help its talented sales associates serve its customers better than ever. Macy’s app powers personalized recommendations, serves as a loyalty tool to deepen its customer 12 relationships, and offers a simplified product discovery and checkout process. The company’s successful Buy Online Pickup in Store (BOPS) option will continue to provide customers with the omnichannel shopping experience they love. 4. Funding our Future – This point represents the decisions and actions that the company takes to create resources to fuel its growth. Macy’s Inc. is focused on cost reduction and reinvestment, and creating value from its real estate portfolio, which is very big. 5. What’s New, What’s Next – this point explores how Macy’s innovates to turn consumer and technology trends to its advantage and drive growth. This includes exploring previously unmet customer needs and making smart investment decisions based on customer insight and analytics. The company will use these insights to improve its digital concepts, brand partnerships and acquisitions, while also innovating the company’s internal processes and customer-facing ideas. Following the strategy Macy’s can improve its performance and start growing again. In February 2018, during the investor’s meeting, CEO of the company Jeff Gennette showed, that the new strategy started giving positive effect. Some of the most important conclusions were presented below: Macy's reorganized its marketing activities by putting more emphasis on fashion, as well as simplifying the previously complicated price scheme; A loyalty program called "The Star Rewards", which was introduced in September 2017 proved successful, which is why the company is planning more solutions of this type; Macy's improved its range of goods, which led to average growth retail sales by about 3 percent; Macy's Backstage (outlet with discounted products) has been expanded to 45 shops; The option called "buy online, pickup in store" has been extended using a more artificial intelligence, to improve customer service in Macy's mobile applications; Cash receipts from the sale of real estate amounted to USD 411 million. Points mentioned above prove, that the company is on the good way to implement the new strategy and improve its performance in next years. 13 4. PRESENT CHALLENGES FOR MACY’S Macy’s has been trying to improve its sales by focusing on growth categories such as beauty and by expanding its presence in the off-price retail space through its backstage stores. However, intense competition from online retailers such as Amazon and off-price retailers such as Kohl’s JC continues to impact Macy’s as well as other department stores’ performances. Source : Wall street earnings estimates Outdated business model - low growth Due to fierce competition and heavy promotional discounts in the industry, the entire retailing industry is suffering from the decline of turnover and reduction of customers visiting the store. On the other hand, the surge in online retailing is changing the consumption behaviour steadily. The upsurge in online retailers such as Amazon has also impacted traditional brickand-mortar retailers. Macy’s has performed better than most of its competitors due to its efforts to localize the merchandise under its My Macy’s localization strategy as well as the expansion of its online business. However, some rivals like Zara reacted quicker and better to customize the technology as per needs of the consumer. Macy’s business model might no longer be sustainable. Consumers are changing the way they shop, and it seems many are no longer willing to wander around giant retail stores to find what they want, but instead shop online. Macy’s should have reacted quicker on this huge global trend but they are late and it has led to a substantial decrease in the company’s sales. 14 Losing its premier position and excessive discounting focusing on off-price business Macy's flagship store in Herald Square serves as evidence of how the store is at risk of losing its premiere positioning. Everything was haphazard and in disarray, showing a lack of care from employees. If the store doesn't care — Why will the consumer care? Why will they come back? Why would they ever want to pay a premium? In addition, the company focuses too much on the discounts and off-prices. Some of Macy’s store have applied the discount apparel up to 80%. Source: Business Insider Threats of e-commerce rivals The biggest concern of Macy’s (which even remains true for most of traditional, mall-based retailers), is the imminent threat from Amazon and the aforementioned impending death of malls. Fall of Macy’s stock In the last 5 years, Macy’s highest stock price has reached to $72,31 (July, 2015). After which, the company’s stock price started to go down and never reached higher than $45. The investors are disappointed with their results lately. The whole departmental store industry is suffering from falling stocks. Retailers in general had a tough time, with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF down about 10%, but the major department stores fared far worse. Stock price fluctuation in last 5 years, Source: Macy’s INC 15 On September 17, Macy’s announced its partnership with Facebook, under which 150 ecommerce brands will be offered through nine Macy’s stores in the 2018 holiday season, called The Market. The company is working to provide a virtual and augmented reality furniture shopping experience to customers. The short term goal is to Enhance Store Look and Feel; Invest more into Off-Price Model. while the Long term goal is to lead the omnichannel retail space. QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED: 1. Analyse the financial statements of Macy’s. 2. Recognize the qualitative and quantitative strengths and weaknesses of Macy’s. 3. Construct a cause and effect diagram. 4. Recommend some actions and demonstrate the effects they will have on Macy’s. 16 APPENDIX 1: BALANCE SHEET OF MACY’s. Source: S&P Capital IQ 17 APPENDIX 2: INCOME STATEMENT OF MACY’s. Source: S&P Capital IQ 18 APPENDIX 3: CASH FLOW STATEMENT OF MACY’s. Source: S&P Capital IQ 19 20 APPENDIX 4: RATIOS. Source: Own calculations 21 22 Macy’s2 1.ANALYSE THE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS OF MACY’S Structure of Balance Sheet The analysis of the balance sheet began with the analysis of the size of assets and their changes in recent years. Until 2015, the value of assets grew, but then it fell to 2,2% in 2016 and 16,1% in 2017. This was mainly caused by the sale of assets by the company, which is also noticeable in the cash flow statement. Equity/Total Assets 35,0% 30,0% 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Macy’s Equity/TA, Source: Own In the next step, the structure of capital and liabilities were analyzed. The equity in Macy’s is 29,2% in 2017 which is lower than the standard 40%. However, when compared with the industry average of 30% (few companies such as Nordstrom and JC Penney has equity of only 12-13%, while Ross stores and Kohl’s has an equity level of more than 40%), Macy’s has an appropriate ratio of equity and total assets. 2 Answers to the questions written by Nirali Singh, Karol Bąk and Yawen Pan, UPF Barcelona School of Management, 2019. 23 In fact, in the previous years the equity level has never exceeded 30% in the company. From 2010 to 2014 it was stable between 25,2-28,9%, while in 2015 and 2016 it was 21,8 and 20,7% respectively. Additionally, equity level below 40% is not a problem for the company, debt is profitable for Macy’s and there is no risk of bankruptcy. The company is mostly financed by long term liabilities, which accounts for 44,6% of total assets in 2017. Liquidity Ratios Liquidity 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Current Ratio 1,4x 1,4x 1,6x 1,5x 1,7x 1,3x 1,4x 1,5x Quick Ratio 0,4x 0,6x 0,5x 0,5x 0,6x 0,4x 0,4x 0,4x Cash to Current Liabilities 0,3x 0,5x 0,4x 0,4x 0,4x 0,2x 0,2x 0,3x 4,9 5,1 4,9 5,7 5,5 7,5 7,4 5,3 117,2 118,7 117,1 121,3 117,3 121,8 126,2 124,7 Days Payables 48,8 52,5 48,6 53,2 52,5 51,8 50,9 56,0 Cash Conversion Cycle 73,3 71,3 73,4 73,8 70,2 77,6 82,7 74,1 Days Receivables Stock Days Source: Own Macy’s has been able to manage its assets quite efficiently and has maintained a respectable current ratio of 1,4-1,5 over the years. The company has no liquidity issues. However, if we compare it with the quick ratio of 0,4 in 2017, there is a huge difference revealing that the company has huge stocks, which is understandable in department store. It can be attributed to the policy of company to maintain high stocks due to the nature of industry. Macy’s has enough cash to pay its short term liabilities as indicated by the cash to current liabilities ratio of 0,3 in 2017. Macy’s would be able to pay 30% of its short-term liabilities using cash. In previous years, the ratio was even higher (0,5 in 2011), thus stipulating the efficient assets management in the company. Days receivables and days payables are very low, which is positive for the company, because Macy’s needs only 5,3 days to collect money from customers and has 56 days to pay its suppliers. It makes, that the company has surplus in working capital/cash, because it collects cash almost 50 days earlier than has to pay it to suppliers. Stock days for the company are too long (124,7 in 2017), which is negative and proves, that the level of inventories in Macy’s is too high making the cash conversion cycle as long as 74 days in 2017. 24 Assets Turnover Macy’s assets turnover has been impeccable in the last 8 years. The ratio has always remained above 1 indicating that sales has always exceeded the value of assets. It’s stability over the year shows the company’s maturity. Assets Turnover 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total Asset Turnover 1,2x 1,2x 1,3x 1,3x 1,3x 1,3x 1,3x 1,3x Current Asset Turnover 3,6x 3,0x 3,5x 3,2x 3,3x 3,5x 3,4x 3,3x Non Current Asset Turnover 1,8x 2,0x 2,1x 2,2x 2,2x 2,1x 2,1x 2,1x 74,0x 71,8x 74,6x 63,8x 66,3x 48,5x 49,4x 68,4x 5,3x 5,4x 5,2x 5,2x 5,6x 5,1x 4,8x 4,3x Acc Receivable Turnover Inventory Turnover Source: Own Managing of accounts receivables in 2017 is better than in years 2013 to 2016. Inventory of Macy’s is too high and in last years, inventory turnover has declined. We can attribute it to bad inventory management but decrease in sales can be a prominent factor. Debt Analysis Debt Analysis 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Debt 73% 73% 71% 71% 75% 79% 78% 71% Quality of Debt 33% 39% 34% 37% 32% 35% 36% 37% Financial Expenses 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Return Capacity -3% 18% -14% 6% 0% -15% 3% 3% Source: Own Share of debt is higher than 60% in all the analyzed years, however, the quality of debt is very good, because company is mostly financed by long-term debt. The financial expense ratio currently is even lower than 1%, specifying that only 1% of sales is required to regulate financial expenses. Macy’s can get more loans to run its operations. The return capacity (cash flow/total loans) in previous years has been negative due to negative cash flow in the company. It has remained very unstable throughout the years and currently resides at 3%, stipulating that in 33 years Macy’s can pay all its debts. It shouldn’t pose any issues for Macy’s due to higher percentage of long term debt. 25 Analysis of Income Statement The graph below shows the values and change of Revenues, Gross Income, EBITDA, EBIT and Net Income In last 8 years in Macy’s. Key Stats - Income Statement 30 000,0 25 000,0 20 000,0 15 000,0 10 000,0 5 000,0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 Revenue 2014 Gross Profit EBITDA 2015 EBIT 2016 2017 Net Income Macy’s: Evolution of revenue, gross profit, EBITDA, EBIT, Net income, Source: Own The graph shows decline in Macy’s revenues, gross income, EBITDA and EBIT in last 3 years. Until 2014 revenues were growing, but after 2014, they started declining, which is big problem for the company. As we know from the part about business, Macy’s currently struggles with problems with digital competitors and changes in customers preferences, who now prefer buying online than in traditional department stores in last years. However, the net Income increased in 2017 due to companies sale of its assets, which is temporary. Macy’s need to work on increasing its sales again if it wants to remain profitable and continue having a positive net income. Margin Analysis The margin for Macy’s has been stable from 2011 to 14. Unfortunately, due to decline in revenues in the last 3 years, the margin of EBIT and EBITDA has been declining. It can be caused by growth in SG&A Margin in those years. Net income margin has increased in 2017 due to sale of Macy’s assets in the previous year. Margin Analysis 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 COGS Margin % 59% 60% 60% 60% 60% 61% 61% 61% Gross Margin % 41% 40% 40% 40% 40% 39% 39% 39% SG&A Margin % 33% 31% 31% 27% 26% 31% 33% 33% EBITDA Margin % 12% 13% 13% 14% 14% 12% 10% 10% EBIT Margin % 8% 9% 10% 10% 10% 8% 6% 6% Net Income Margin % 3% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 2% 6% Source: Own 26 Profitability Analysis Margin Analysis 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ROA (Net Income/TA) 4% 6% 6% 7% 7% 5% 3% 8% ROI (EBIT/TA) 9% 11% 13% 13% 13% 10% 8% 8% ROE (Net Income/Equity) 15% 21% 22% 24% 28% 25% 14% 27% Financial exp./Total Loans 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Source: Own In 2016, the return on assets of Macy’s hit a rock bottom of 3% due to continuing losses in revenue. It increased in 2017 to 8%, which is the highest in last 8 years, due to sale of its more than 100 departmental stores. In any case the, ROA ratio over the years has increased for Macy’s which is good for the company and its assets are profitable. Analyzing return on Investments we can see, that it was growing until 2014, when it reached 13%, but then it started decreasing and in 2017 ROI equals 8%. Due to losses in last 3 years, there has been a decrease in the return on investment. Return on Equity of Macy’s is very high and very good. Shareholders can be satisfied, because the company usually generates ROE higher than 20%. 2016 was the worst for the company in case of profitability, because net Income significantly decreased. 2017 on the other hand was the best for the company due to increase in net income caused due to selling assets. That income is included in income statement as Gain (Loss) On Sale of Assets. Financial Leverage Macy’s is mostly financed by debt (around 70%). The financial leverage effect is positive and lower share of Equity (< 40%) is not a problem for the company. ROI is higher than Financial Expenses to Total Loans ratio. It proves, that financial leverage effect is positive, which means that financing by debt is profitable for the company and share of equity around 30% is not a problem for Macy’s. Profitability 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 Return on Investment (EBIT/TA) 2014 2015 2016 2017 Financial Expenses / Total Loans Macy’s profitability analysis, Source: Own 27 Altman Z-score Estimating Z-score allows us to evaluate solvency of the company. Below we present a formula, which we used to estimate it. Z = 1.2 X1 + 1.4 X2 + 3.3 X3 + 0.6 X4 + 1.0 X5 X1 = working capital / total assets X2 = retained earnings / total assets X3 = earnings before interest and taxes / total assets X4 = market value of equity / book value of total liabilities X5 = sales / total assets Z < 1.8: high probability of default 1.8 < Z < 3: medium probability of default Z > 3: low probability of default Altman Z Score 3,5 3,0 3,13 2,5 3,32 2,95 2,68 2,56 2,0 2,23 2,46 2,61 2016 2017 1,5 1,0 0,5 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Macy’s Evolution: Z score, Source: Own Macy’s Z score has been growing for 5 years from 2010 to 2014 and achieved value 3,32 in 2014, which shows, that company has very small probability of default. In years 2015-2017, it was lower due to loss of revenues. Although, it is still relatively high and there is only medium to low probability of insolvency. Analysis of Cash Flow Statement Cash Flow 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Cash from Ops. 1104,7 1649,2 1591,2 1888,4 Cash from Investing -341,1 -529,0 -570,3 -583,8 2399,5 1833,5 1684,3 1562,6 -859,2 -1009,2 -174,9 -299,8 Cash from Financing -926,5 -85,8 -1744,6 -980,9 -1564,2 -1875,1 -1333,6 -1135,8 Net Change in Cash -162,8 1034,4 -723,7 323,8 -23,9 -1050,8 175,8 127,0 Source: Own 28 Cash from Operations has been positive (always higher than 1,1 billion Euros) for last 8 years. The company’s operating activities has provided a positive cash flow and maintained profit. Although, since 2014, Cash from Operations started decreasing, which proves, that last 3 years were not optimistic for the company, because of problems in the industry with online competitors. Cash from Investing was negative during analyzed period, which is not surprising. Macy’s still invests money to develop its activities. However, in 2016 and 17, cash from investing was less negative in comparison with previous years. It can be due to sale of assets of Macy’s. Cash Flow 3 000,0 2 500,0 2 000,0 1 500,0 1 000,0 500,0 0 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 ( 500,0) (1 000,0) (1 500,0) Operation CF Financial & Investment CF Net Change in CF Graphical representation of cash flows, Source: Own Cash from Financing was negative during analyzed period. It is mostly caused because of repurchase of common stock and common dividends paid. Macy’s used to spend a lot for repurchasing its common stocks (1,8 bn. In 2015), but in last 2 years the company spent less, than in previous years. Dividend policy of the company is very interesting, as Macy’s had paid dividends every single year (during analyzed period), even when the company had losses. 2. RECOGNIZE THE QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF MACY’S Financial strengths After analysis of the company’s financial accounts, below are listed the financial strengths and weaknesses of Macy’s 29 Financial strengths Financial Weaknesses High ROI and ROE Decreasing revenues High liquidity Decline of Macy’s operating margins Less financial expenses, hence, profitable debt Low equity and high liabilities weight Less days receivables: quick to collect cash Continuous reduction in stock prices Positive working capital, due to negative working Loss of fixed assets, more than 100 department capital cycle stores sold Qualitative strengths Who New CEO, Jeff Gennette aimed to brings a richer experience for the customer renewing itself with unconventional ideas Leveraging its recent acquisition of Story and the appointment of Story founder and CEO Rachel Shechtman as Macy’s brand experience officer to jazz up bricks & mortar What Changing the business model Maintaining competitive advantage New growth strategies How Discounts loyalty programs, for instance My Macy’s. Opening online stores to compete with ecommerce websites Growth 50 : Macy’s is testing a new concept in 50 doors that includes “hyper-curated assortments,” modest capital improvements to the store, localized marketing and enhanced associate interaction in areas that benefit from consultative selling such as big ticket, beauty and fine jewellery. The most successful components will begin rolling out to other stores in 2019. 30 Boosting the penetration of private label brands from the current 29% to over 40%. Qualitative strengths Qualitative weaknesses New CEO Inefficient management Who What Story founder and CEO Rachel Shechtman Work environment as Macy’s brand experience officer to jazz Inefficiency of HR to hold employees in up bricks & mortar the company more trainings are needed. Changes in business model Inefficient reward system Maintaining competitive advantage Low employee turnover New growth strategies High rotation R&D Carelessness of retail employees Ecommerce Less proactiveness Boosting the penetration of private label Changes in consumer behaviour How brands from the current 29% to over 40%. Growth 50 Qualitative weaknesses Who Inefficient management team Work environment Inefficiency of HR to hold employees in the company more trainings are needed. What Inefficient reward system Low employee turnover High rotation Highly competitive and dynamic sector Mall based obsolete business model How Carelessness of retail employees Lack of proactiveness in studying the changing market 31 Changes in customers preference 3. CONSTRUCT A CAUSE AND EFFECT DIAGRAM. The biggest problem that Macy’s (as well as the retail industry) has been facing is critical competition from e-commerce websites. It has not only led to declining revenues but also forced them to close many of its stores in recent years. Amazon specifically has been taking a deep market share from retail stores and has led to changes in habits of consumer behaviour, which has set these companies on a desperate but vicious cycle of trying to retain customers. The other issue is the continuous decline in Macy’s net income. Although, unlike its counterparts Macy’s has managed to make a positive revenue every year, still, there has been cost cuttings and sales of department stores. The whole industry and the shopping complex/ mall based business model has been suffering due to changing consumer behaviour. Customers now demand more home delivered products as offered by Amazon and other ecommerce sites and even though Macy’s has started its own online stores, it hasn’t yet bore fruit. Source: Own In addition to these external factors, employee dissatisfaction is also one of the issues of Macy’s. Their obsolete business model and inefficient management has led to issues in internal processes that affects the business in the worst way possible. Macy’s is steadily declining, and need to come up with strategies and ideas to stop this downward trend. 32 4.RECOMMEND SOME ACTIONS AND DEMONSTRATE THE EFFECTS THEY WILL HAVE ON MACY’S. Recommendation All the issues that Macy’s is currently facing are more on the industry and management side. There are no issues with the finances of the company that are not related to revenues or sales. Macy’s is facing a tough competition and need to earn more revenues. Our recommendations would be: Changes in business model Maintaining competitive edge Exclusivity in the offered products Better human resource management Introducing new strategies to earn more market share In addition to the above techniques, we also recommend to sell more of the existing inventories. Macy’s has high level of inventories, that leads to a high cash conversion cycle and lower quick ratio. If Macy’s is able to convert these inventories into sales, a lot of ratios including the margins of revenue and net income can be improved. Demonstration of recommendations In order to demonstrate how selling more inventories can help Macy’s, we made following assumptions: Reduced the inventories by 2 billion euros Assumed that we sold those inventories and converted them into sales. Increased revenue by 2 billion euros. Cost of goods sold is 59% of the new revenue (extrapolation from previous years) Paid 1 billion worth of short term loan and 1 billion worth of long term loan, by the extra cash we retained due to increased revenue The operations of the companies are carried out normally throughout the year with no sale of any department store or any other fixed asset (unlike 2017) 33 The results are shown below: Income Statement recommendations (2017) Before After Results Margins Results Margins Revenues 19 964 100,0% 21 964 100,0% COGS 12 179 61,0% 12 959 59,0% Gross Profit 7 785 39,0% 9 005 41,0% EBIT 1 239 6,2% 2 459 11,2% Net Income 1 243 6,2% 2 042 9,3% Source: Own With the increase in revenue by 2 billion, there is an increase in gross profit, EBIT and net income of Macy’s. The net income has increased by a factor of 3% by just selling more inventories. As we decreased the inventories, we are able to improve the liquidity ratios. The assets turnover has increased due to increased Ratios recommendations (2017) Liquidity Before After revenues and net income. Profitability of the Current Ratio 1,5x 1,9x company has approximately doubled in terms Quick Ratio 0,4x 1,2x Stock Days 124,7 60,9 of all returns. Return on investment has Asset Turnover increased from 8 to 18% while the most Total Asset Turnover 1,3x 1,6x noticeable change is the increase in ROE Current Asset Turnover 3,3x 3,7x Non Current Asset Turnover 2,1x 2,9x Inventory Turnover 4,3x 6,1x from 27 to 45%. Interestingly, this increase in ROE can lead to better stock price of Macy’s Profitability shares in market as people invest more in Return on Assets 8% 15% future. Return on Investment (EBIT/TA) 8% 18% 27% 45% Return on Equity Source: Own This company is only haunted by the decrease in sales and revenues. If they are able to turn around their business model, maintain a competitive edge and fulfil the changing demands of their customers, all their issues related to profitability, margins and even decreasing stock price can be resolved. 34 INTEREST OF THE CASE Macy’s is more than 100 years old, and each time in those 100 years it faced a road block, the company took it in stride and rose like a phoenix. The current market scenario is a huge challenge for Macy’s due to extremely tough competition. This case is interesting because we study a mature company, who is a leader in the departmental store industry and is still surviving profitably in the market. We learn that even though the company has no major issues in its finances and has been able to maintain good return and regular pay-outs is still struggling to keep on its feet due to an obsolete business model. The company has enough liquidity and profitability still due to qualitative issues such as bad management and incompetent strategies, Macy’s has been led to sell its assets. The company needs innovation and fresh ideas to maintain an edge in the market. Additionally, the company has suffered due to lack of understanding of customers and heedlessness of the changing customer habit. Macy’s although, has been trying hard to remain profitable and increase its stock value. The CEO is interested to change the “product based” approach to “consumer experience based” approach. The company is employing better individuals to understand the market and investing in innovative ideas such as Growth 50 and My Macy’s. New strategies are being formed to cope up with the competition. The decision to sell the assets is also a manoeuvre to maintain profitability a liquidity. Conclusively, this case shows that an organization as old, huge, and stable as Macy’s can face issues due to lack of proactiveness and exclusivity. Macy’s even though, have never in past made any wrong financial decisions is still suffering due to lack of sales. Although, Macy’s tenacity to recover from these losses is exemplary and it can be a very good example in future to bounce back from losing revenues and maintain its leadership position in the market. REFERENCES: https://ecampus.bsm.upf.edu/pluginfile.php/116078/mod_resource/content/0/Analysis% 20of%20financial%20statements%20Análisis%20de%20Balances%20ENGLISH.pdf https://www.macysinc.com https://www.capitaliq.com/ https://finance.yahoo.com https://csimarket.com/ 35 https://www.nasdaq.com/ https://www.marketwatch.com/ https://www.thestreet.com/story/14521024/1/4-ways-macy-s-is-competing-with-new-ageretail.html 36