Uploaded by phani86

Chemical Industry Monthly Report - January 2023

advertisement
Institutional Research
Monthly Report
India I Chemicals
03 January 2023
Chemical Pulse
NIFTY 50: 21,517
BSE Sensex: 71,357
Crude corrects; chemical, petchem prices decline and spreads contract
During December, chemical prices generally declined MoM with ~6% correction in crude.
China VAM/ Fluorspar prices fell 6%/ 5% MoM while Soda Ash, Methanol, and Acetic Acid
prices rose by 22%/ 5%/ 4%. Decline in crude led to decline in petchem, building blocks,
monomer, and polymer prices. Caprolactam-Benzene spreads expanded 10% MoM while
Ethyl Acetate-Acetic Acid/Ethanol and Phenol/Acetone-Benz./Prop. Spreads contracted
3% and 2% MoM respectively. During 3QCY2023, EU27 chemical production saw a
marginal 0.5% rise QoQ, however in 9MCY2023, EU27 chemical industry reported 10.6%
drop in production, third largest decline. Capacity utilizations declined and stood at 74.1%.
In US, the inventory destocking has largely come to an end and chemical production is
expected to fall 1% YoY in 2023.
Chemicals – Generally prices rose QoQ
 Acetic Acid – Up 4.4% MoM and down 10.2% QoQ, positive for GNFC while negative
for consumers such as Laxmi Organic/ Jubilant Ingrevia
 Caustic Soda (SEA) – Declined 1.3% MoM while rose 9.2% QoQ
 Fluorspar – Declined 4.6% MoM while rose 13.9% QoQ
 Soda Ash (China) – Up 21.8% MoM and up 9.2% QoQ. China prices remain disconnected
from Indian prices due to local demand-supply dynamics. On 30 November, Tata
Chemicals revised domestic Soda Ash prices downwards by ~3.4%, to Rs28,800/MT
(light soda ash) from earlier Rs29,800/MT (previous downward revision by ~5.7% on 2
August 2023)
 Phenol/ Acetone – Down 3.4%/ Up 1.8% MoM, phenol remained flattish QoQ while
Acetone rose 4.8% QoQ
 China VAM/ Phthalic Anhydride – Down 6.3%/ Up 2.5% MoM, down 1.4%/ 8.4% QoQ
 Palm Kernel Oil (PKO) – Down 1.1% MoM and 3.3% QoQ, resultant Lauryl Alcohol
(derivative of PKO) prices may decline, positive for Galaxy Surfactants to some extent
Crude/ Petrochem – Crude down ~6% MoM and ~5% QoQ
 Brent/ WTI – Down 6.0%/ 6.5% MoM, down 4.0%/ 5.8% QoQ
 Benzene (Korea)/ Toluene (Rotterdam) – Down 0.7%/ 1.3% MoM while Benzene
declined 2.1% QoQ and Toluene declined 21.1% QoQ
 HDPE/ LDPE/ LLDPE – Down 1.5-2.0% MoM, Up 2-3% QoQ
 EDC/ VCM – EDC up 4.2% MoM and 21.1% QoQ while VCM up 0.8% MoM and down
8% QoQ
 PVC – flattish MoM, down 8.1% QoQ
Spreads/ margins – Ethyl Acetate-Acetic Acid/Ethanol and Phenol/ Acetone-Benzene/
Propylene spreads contract while Caprolactam-Benzene spreads surge MoM
 Caprolactam-Benzene – Up 10.0% MoM and 8.0% QoQ, positive for GSFC
 Ethyl Acetate-Acetic Acid/Ethanol – Contracted 2.5% MoM and 15.0% QoQ, negative
for Laxmi Organic, Jubilant Ingrevia
 Phenol/Acetone-Benzene/Propylene – Contracted 1.9% MoM while up 3.8% QoQ,
marginal negative for Deepak Nitrite
 PVC-EDC – Contracted 3.5% MoM and 22.2% QoQ
 PVC-VCM – Contracted 4.2% MoM and 8.7% QoQ, negative for Chemplast Sanmar
 TDI-Toluene – Expanded 1.1% MoM and 11.3% QoQ, positive for GNFC
Please see Disclaimer for analyst certifications and all other important disclosures.
('000 MT)
Caustic Soda
Chemical Fertilisers
Ethylene
Pesticide
Phosphate Ore
Soda Ash
Sulfuric Acid
Syn. Detergents
Synthetic Fiber
Synthetic Rubber
Nov-23
3,498
4,980
2,694
236
9,965
2,918
8,174
992
5,961
803
% Chg.
YoY
5.6
10.4
7.4
10.3
4.8
9.1
0.3
3.5
17.9
11.1
Source: China Data, Industry
Rating and Target prices
Company
Rating Price*(Rs) TP(Rs)
Aarti Industries
BUY
652
604
Anupam Rasayan
SELL
1,091
863
Atul Ltd.
REDUCE
7,161 6,623
Deepak Nitrite
ADD
2,480 2,282
Dhanuka Agritech
ADD
1,151
945
Galaxy Surfactants REDUCE
2,767 2.948
Gujarat Fluorochem
ADD
3,892 2,932
Navin Fluorine
ADD
3,868 3,881
PI Industries
ADD
3,464 3,785
SRF
REDUCE
2,507 2,254
UPL
BUY
587
771
Vinati Organics
SELL
1,741 1,641
Source: Centrum Broking, *as on 03 January 2024
Rohit Nagraj
Research Analyst, Chemicals
+91-022 4215 9645
rohit.nagraj@centrum.co.in
Kunal Pai
Research Associate, Chemicals
+91-22 4215 9815
kunal.pai@centrum.co.in
Chemicals
China key chemicals production (November 2023) – Soda Ash production surges 11% YoY
till November 2023
 Soda Ash – Down 5.7% MoM, up 9.1% YoY, Nov-23 cum. up 10.5% YoY
 Caustic Soda – Down 1.0% MoM, up 5.6% YoY, Nov-23 cum. up 3.7% YoY
 Pesticides – Down 1.7% MoM, up 10.3% YoY, Nov -23 cum. up 1.7% YoY
 Phosphate Ore – Down 15.0% MoM, Up 4.8% YoY, Nov-23 cum. down 1.6% YoY
 Synthetic Fiber – Up 1.8% MoM, Up 17.9% YoY, Nov -23 cum. up 5.8% YoY
China key chemicals monthly production –
November 2023
Chemical Pulse
03 January 2023
EU27 chemical production up 0.5% QoQ in 3QCY23, first time in past six quarters,
modest recovery expected in US for 2024. (Chemicals sector – Recovery in Sight
or Mirage?)
During 3QCY2023, EU27 chemical production saw a marginal 0.5% rise QoQ which
is still below 10% of 2019 levels which was a recession year for the EU27 chemical
industry. In 9MCY2023, EU27 chemical industry reported 10.6% drop in production,
third largest decline. Capacity utilizations declined and stood at 74.1%. In US, the
inventory destocking has largely come to an end and chemical production is
expected to fall 1% YoY in 2023. In 2024, modest recovery is expected with
production growth of 1.5%.
China dumping is largely absorbed globally and based on global chemical
companies’ commentaries, inventory destocking is coming to an end. Europe has
remained a dampener over the past several quarters and rising QoQ/ MoM
production provides some signs of recovery. Indian chemical sector has been
impacted by declining exports and signs of recovery bode well from exports
perspective. ACC, US envisages modest recovery in 2024 with 1.5% rise in chemicals
output while a stronger 2.9% YoY global chemical production growth is expected in
2024.
Centrum Institutional Research
2
Chemical Pulse
03 January 2023
Table of Contents
Chemical, Petrochemical Price Trends – December 23 ..................................................... 4
China Key Chemicals Monthly Production Trend – Nov 23 ............................................... 6
Global Chemicals Production and Outlook ....................................................................... 7
Anti-dumping (ADD) Impositions/ Investigations ............................................................. 8
Key RMs and Products for Chemical Companies ............................................................... 9
Rabi Sowing Data (till end-December) ............................................................................ 10
Chemical Price Trends .................................................................................................... 11
China Chemical Prices .................................................................................................... 13
Petrochemical Price Trends ............................................................................................ 14
Crude Prices ................................................................................................................... 18
Chemicals and Petrochemicals Spreads/Margins ........................................................... 19
Currency Movement ...................................................................................................... 20
Key Chemical prices India (imported) vs Benchmark/ China ........................................... 21
China Key Chemicals Monthly Production Trend ............................................................ 22
India Imports – October 2023 ......................................................................................... 24
India Organic Chemicals Imports/Exports – October 2023.............................................. 26
India Inorganic Chemicals Imports/Exports – October 2023 ........................................... 27
India Agrochemicals Imports/Exports – October 2023.................................................... 28
Freight Rate and Index ................................................................................................... 29
Chemical, Petrochemical, and Crude Prices – Monthly ................................................... 30
Chemical, Petrochemical, and Crude Prices – Quarterly ...................................................... 32
Chemical, Petrochemical, and Crude Prices –Yearly ............................................................ 34
Centrum Institutional Research
3
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
Index
Chemical, Petrochemical Price Trends – December 23
Chemical prices
(USD/MT)
Latest
Dec-23
Nov-23
4Q2023
3Q2023
2023
2022
2021
% MoM
% QoQ
% YoY
Caustic Soda SEA
420
418
423
440
403
457
712
433
(1.3)
9.2
(35.7)
China Acetic Acid
422
447
428
461
514
458
602
1,017
4.4
(10.2)
(24.0)
China Acetone
993
971
954
985
940
901
850
1,033
1.8
4.8
5.9
China Acrylic Acid
1,037
1,037
1,037
1,039
971
1,042
1,764
1,894
0.0
7.0
(40.9)
China Acrylonitrile
1,380
1,380
1,387
1,367
1,192
1,329
1,581
2,245
(0.5)
14.6
(16.0)
China Caprolactam
1,936
1,857
1,800
1,800
1,778
1,787
1,964
2,147
3.2
1.3
(9.0)
China Ethanol
1,077
1,073
1,061
1,065
1,026
1,043
1,119
1,122
1.1
3.8
(6.8)
China Ethyl Acetate
936
934
918
946
975
954
1,132
1,434
1.7
(2.9)
(15.7)
China Fluorspar
486
489
513
507
445
466
440
410
(4.6)
13.9
6.0
China Methanol
327
334
319
325
322
331
384
390
4.8
0.9
(13.8)
China Phenol
1,077
1,104
1,142
1,151
1,153
1,132
1,503
1,382
(3.4)
(0.1)
(24.7)
China Phthalic Anhydride
1,063
1,031
1,005
1,044
1,140
1,120
1,242
1,018
2.5
(8.4)
(9.8)
347
347
285
326
299
319
347
340
21.8
9.2
(8.0)
2,352
2,335
2,329
2,384
2,498
2,565
2,734
2,247
0.3
(4.6)
(6.2)
China VAM
811
811
865
906
919
959
1,797
2,028
(6.3)
(1.4)
(46.7)
Malaysia/ Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil
950
950
961
939
971
982
1,656
1,572
(1.1)
(3.3)
(40.7)
2,260
2,260
2,260
2,260
2,272
2,305
2,663
3,094
0.0
(0.5)
(13.4)
China Soda Ash
China TDI
MDI
Source: Bloomberg, Industry Note: Latest prices for the week ended 29 December 2023
China Chemical Prices
(USD/MT)
Latest
Dec-23
Nov-23
4Q2023
3Q2023
2023
2022
2021
% MoM
% QoQ
% YoY
Bromine
3,489
3,521
3,478
3,434
3,129
3,738
7,915
7,168
1.2
9.8
(52.8)
797
796
801
801
830
838
1,112
1,419
(0.6)
(3.5)
(24.6)
Polycarbonate
2,194
2,193
2,207
2,224
2,253
2,282
2,935
3,845
(0.7)
(1.3)
(22.3)
Titanium Dioxide (TiO2)
2,310
2,316
2,351
2,345
2,262
2,343
2,814
3,141
(1.5)
3.7
(16.8)
MDI
2,219
2,221
2,220
2,208
2,334
2,281
3,283
3,301
0.0
(5.4)
(30.5)
452
469
453
495
539
487
628
1,034
3.5
(8.2)
(22.4)
PVC
Acetic Acid
Source: Bloomberg, Industry Note: Latest prices for the week ended 29 December 2023
Centrum Institutional Research
4
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
Index
Petrochemical prices
(USD/MT)
Latest
Dec-23
Nov-23
4Q2023
3Q2023
2023
2022
2021
% MoM
% QoQ
% YoY
Benzene Rotterdam
905
889
902
943
965
965
1,102
1,031
(1.4)
(2.2)
(12.4)
Benzene Korea
890
876
882
893
912
905
1,033
911
(0.7)
(2.1)
(12.4)
Benzene China
1,021
975
1,023
1,028
1,055
1,020
1,211
1,097
(4.7)
(2.6)
(15.8)
Toluene Rotterdam
940
933
945
961
1,219
1,082
1,221
780
(1.3)
(21.1)
(11.4)
Naphtha Japan
669
667
655
661
656
655
787
651
1.8
0.8
(16.8)
Ethylene NWE
735
734
753
736
703
804
1,142
1,184
(2.6)
4.8
(29.6)
Ethylene Korea
850
846
852
858
800
838
1,001
1,011
(0.6)
7.2
(16.3)
Propylene NWE
876
861
889
865
672
824
1,127
1,311
(3.3)
28.8
(26.9)
Propylene Korea
815
815
816
817
779
831
997
1,013
(0.1)
4.9
(16.6)
Butadiene Korea
925
930
964
975
821
923
1,092
987
(3.5)
18.9
(15.5)
Styrene Korea
1,040
1,023
1,036
1,039
1,048
1,048
1,202
1,152
(1.3)
(0.8)
(12.9)
HDPE Europe
1,548
1,545
1,572
1,556
1,505
1,611
2,008
2,054
(1.7)
3.4
(19.8)
LDPE Europe
1,834
1,833
1,870
1,855
1,812
1,953
2,422
2,468
(2.0)
2.4
(19.3)
LLDPE Europe
1,647
1,641
1,670
1,654
1,613
1,698
2,059
2,136
(1.7)
2.5
(17.5)
PP Europe
1,449
1,456
1,496
1,487
1,458
1,561
1,948
2,067
(2.7)
2.0
(19.8)
Polystyrene SEA
1,220
1,225
1,249
1,248
1,200
1,247
1,492
1,485
(1.9)
4.0
(16.5)
EDC SEA
355
355
341
338
279
315
546
737
4.2
21.1
(42.3)
VCM SEA
625
640
635
644
700
698
954
1,207
0.8
(8.0)
(26.9)
PVC SEA
770
780
781
788
857
842
1,146
1,429
(0.1)
(8.1)
(26.5)
MEG SEA
535
516
503
499
485
503
583
670
2.7
2.9
(13.8)
PTA SEA
780
766
773
774
815
802
886
714
(0.9)
(5.0)
(9.5)
OX China
1,042
1,031
1,045
1,077
1,178
1,138
1,215
938
(1.4)
(8.6)
(6.4)
PX Rotterdam
1,055
1,039
1,062
1,097
1,185
1,176
1,266
883
(2.2)
(7.5)
(7.2)
ABS SEA
1,280
1,280
1,309
1,323
1,328
1,358
1,738
2,350
(2.2)
(0.4)
(21.9)
Source: Bloomberg, Industry Note: Latest prices for the week ended 29 December 2023
Crude prices
(USD/bbl)
Latest
Dec-23
Nov-23
4Q2023
3Q2023
2023
2022
2021
% MoM
% QoQ
% YoY
Brent
78
78
83
84
87
83
100
70
(6.0)
(4.0)
(17.4)
WTI
72
72
77
78
83
78
95
68
(6.5)
(5.8)
(17.9)
Dubai-Oman
76
77
82
83
87
82
97
69
(6.6)
(4.9)
(15.4)
% YoY
Source: Bloomberg, Industry Note: Latest prices for the week ended 29 December 2023
Spreads/Margins
(USD/MT)
Latest
Dec-23
Nov-23
4Q2023
3Q2023
2023
2022
2021
% MoM
% QoQ
Caprolactam-Benzene
915
883
802
780
722
769
753
1,029
10.0
8.0
2.1
Phenol/Acetone-Benz./Propylene
464
490
500
526
507
441
585
674
(1.9)
3.8
(24.7)
Ethyl Acetate-Acetic Acid/ Ethanol
89
72
74
78
92
101
140
164
(2.5)
(15.0)
(28.2)
573
595
606
622
786
737
820
756
(1.8)
(20.9)
(10.1)
66
67
98
75
47
149
355
532
(32.0)
60.7
(58.1)
PVC-EDC
415
425
441
450
579
527
601
692
(3.5)
(22.2)
(12.2)
PVC-VCM
145
140
146
144
157
145
192
222
(4.2)
(8.7)
(24.8)
Polystyrene-Styrene
180
203
213
209
152
199
290
333
(5.1)
37.2
(31.4)
1,412
1,403
1,387
1,423
1,279
1,484
1,512
1,500
1.1
11.3
(1.9)
PP-Propylene
Ethylene-Naphtha
TDI-Toluene
Source: Bloomberg, Industry Note: Latest prices for the week ended 29 December 2023
Currency
Currency
Latest
Dec-23
Nov-23
4Q2023
3Q2023
2023
2022
2021
% MoM
% QoQ
% YoY
Dollar Index
101.3
102.4
104.3
104.4
103.4
103.4
104.0
92.5
(1.8)
1.0
(0.6)
USDINR
83.2
83.2
83.3
83.2
82.7
82.6
78.6
73.9
(0.2)
0.6
5.0
USDCNY
7.10
7.13
7.21
7.22
7.24
7.08
6.73
6.45
(1.1)
(0.3)
5.2
EURINR
91.9
91.1
90.0
89.6
89.9
89.3
82.7
87.4
1.2
(0.3)
7.9
Source: Bloomberg, Industry Note: Latest prices for the week ended 29 December 2023
Centrum Institutional Research
5
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
Index
China Key Chemicals Monthly Production Trend – Nov 23
China Key Chemicals Monthly production – November 2023
('000 MT)
Caustic Soda
Chemical Fertilizers
Ethylene
Pesticide
Phosphate Ore
Soda Ash
Sulfuric Acid
Synthetic Detergents
Synthetic Fiber
Synthetic Rubber
Nov-23
3,498
4,980
2,694
236
9,965
2,918
8,174
992
5,961
803
Oct-23
3,532
5,066
2,822
240
8,664
3,095
8,221
1,018
5,853
847
% Chg. MoM
(1.0)
(1.7)
(4.5)
(1.7)
15.0
(5.7)
(0.6)
(2.6)
1.8
(5.2)
Nov-22
3,311
4,511
2,509
214
9,512
2,675
8,151
958
5,055
723
% Chg. YoY
5.6
10.4
7.4
10.3
4.8
9.1
0.3
3.5
17.9
11.1
Jan-Nov 23
37,355
52,636
28,642
2,338
95,328
29,379
87,053
10,083
60,548
8,334
Jan-Nov 22
36,039
50,454
26,291
2,300
96,881
26,577
86,234
9,456
57,226
7,258
% Chg.
3.7
4.3
8.9
1.7
(1.6)
10.5
0.9
6.6
5.8
14.8
Source: China Government, Centrum Broking
China Key Chemicals Yearly Production
('000 MT)
Caustic Soda
Chemical Fertilizers
Ethylene
Pesticide
Phosphate Ore
Soda Ash
Sulfuric Acid
Synthetic Detergents
Synthetic Fiber
Synthetic Rubber
2017
34,622
66,387
18,354
3,636
148,436
27,157
91,723
13,964
47,645
6,022
2018
33,992
56,768
18,245
2,468
106,560
25,825
86,221
10,489
45,821
5,810
2019
34,880
57,260
20,499
2,047
95,785
28,036
86,853
10,110
56,252
6,727
2020
36,287
54,824
21,690
2,151
89,202
27,592
83,006
11,129
46,138
7,355
2021
38,420
54,896
28,045
2,509
102,718
29,092
92,238
10,339
61,717
8,122
2022
39,482
55,278
28,938
2,515
108,114
29,154
94,742
10,414
62,020
8,067
Source: China Government, Centrum Broking
China Key Chemicals Yearly Production Growth
% Chg. YoY
Caustic Soda
Chemical Fertilizers
Ethylene
Pesticide
Phosphate Ore
Soda Ash
Sulfuric Acid
Synthetic Detergents
Synthetic Fiber
Synthetic Rubber
2018
(1.8)
(14.5)
(0.6)
(32.1)
(28.2)
(4.9)
(6.0)
(24.9)
(3.8)
(3.5)
2019
2.6
0.9
12.4
(17.1)
(10.1)
8.6
0.7
(3.6)
22.8
15.8
2020
4.0
(4.3)
5.8
5.1
(6.9)
(1.6)
(4.4)
10.1
(18.0)
9.3
2021
5.9
0.1
29.3
16.6
15.2
5.4
11.1
(7.1)
33.8
10.4
2022
2.8
0.7
3.2
0.2
5.3
0.2
2.7
0.7
0.5
(0.7)
Source: China Government, Centrum Broking
Centrum Institutional Research
6
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
Index
Global Chemicals Production and Outlook
Global Chemical Sales Trend (EUR bn)
Chemical sales
China
EU27
USA
India
ROW
Total
2012
949
519
464
69
1,033
3,033
2013
1,058
510
451
66
1,012
3,097
2014
1,136
498
443
69
988
3,133
2015
1,343
494
470
86
1,007
3,399
2016
1,294
478
455
78
982
3,286
2017
1,414
521
463
90
1,052
3,541
2018
1,522
541
465
102
1,106
3,736
2019
1,559
546
456
101
1,134
3,795
2020
1,492
506
406
88
1,009
3,502
2021
1,949
618
493
99
1,269
4,428
2022
2,390
760
606
115
1,563
5,434
CAGR 2012-22(%)
9.7
3.9
2.7
5.2
4.2
6.0
Source: CEFIC
EU27 Production Trend (Indexed, Quarterly)
110.0
EU27 Production Trend (Indexed, Yearly)
110.0
2015 - 100 (Index)
105.0
2015 - 100 (Index)
Source: CEFIC
104.2
2023
2022
2021
2016
2015
89.7
97.6
98.2
2020
102.2
100.4
2019
2018
98.5
2014
100.7
98.3
2013
100.0
98.1
2012
2011
Source: CEFIC
Source: CEFIC
78.0
82.5
2022
2021
2020
2019
2016
2023
74.8
77.1
83.4
2018
81.8
84.0
2017
81.7
2015
82.0
81.6
79.9
2013
2014
79.7
2012
81.5
2011
74.2
86.0
84.0
82.0
80.0
78.0
76.0
74.0
72.0
70.0
68.0
2009
Q1/09
Q4/09
Q3/10
Q2/11
Q1/12
Q4/12
Q3/13
Q2/14
Q1/15
Q4/15
Q3/16
Q2/17
Q1/18
Q4/18
Q3/19
Q2/20
Q1/21
Q4/21
Q3/22
Q2/23
86.0
84.0
82.0
80.0
78.0
76.0
74.0
72.0
70.0
68.0
81.1
EU27 Capacity Utilisation (Yearly)
2010
EU27 Capacity Utilisation (Quarterly)
Source: CEFIC
Chemicals Production Trend Across Countries
Output
Growth (%)
South Korea
Germany
EU27
Japan
Brazil
USA
India
Russia
China
World
2010
2009 87.7
Q3/23
Q3/22
Q3/21
Q3/20
Q3/19
Q3/18
Q3/17
Q3/16
Q3/15
Q3/14
Q3/13
80.0
Q3/12
75.0
Q3/11
85.0
Q3/10
80.0
Q3/09
90.0
Q3/08
85.0
97.8
95.0
90.0
99.5
100.0
95.0
102.8
100.0
2017
105.0
2021
2021
2022
2023 (Jan-Sep)
(3.1)
(1.3)
(2.2)
(12.0)
0.0
(4.9)
(5.4)
7.4
2.9
(0.5)
8.6
5.7
6.1
5.1
3.6
4.2
8.0
7.1
8.4
7.2
(9.9)
(12.1)
(6.3)
(3.8)
1.1
2.2
4.2
(2.3)
6.4
1.5
(13.8)
(13.7)
(10.6)
(7.3)
(7.2)
(2.7)
0.0
5.0
9.2
0.9
Global Chemicals Production Outlook
Growth (%)
2022
2023P
2024F
World Chemical Output
1.8
0.3
2.9
North America
2.1
(1.9)
0.5
Latin America
4.8
(3.6)
3.1
Europe
5.1
(6.6)
1.9
(3.7)
1.1
3.1
Africa and Middle East
3.1
0.9
2.3
Asia & Pacific
0.5
3.7
4.2
Former Soviet Union
Source: ACC
Source: CEFIC
Centrum Institutional Research
7
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
Index
Anti-dumping (ADD) Impositions/ Investigations
Anti-dumping (ADD) Impositions/ Investigations
Type of Investigation
Countries
Product
South Korea, Singapore, and the
Para-Tertiary Butyl Phenol (PTBP)
United States of America
China PR
Meta Phenylene Diamine (MPDA)
Natural mica-based pearl industrial
China
pigments excluding cosmetic grade
China PR, Korea RP, Malaysia,
Poly Vinyl Chloride Paste Resin
Norway, Taiwan & Thailand
Imposed/ In-Process
Impacted Companies
ADD imposed
Vinati organics
ADD continued
Aarti Industries, Anupam Rasayan
ADD imposed review
Sudarshan Chemicals
ADD Investigation initiation
Chemplast Sanmar
ADD investigation (Sep 23)
China PR
Isopropyl alcohol
ADD investigation
CVD Initiation (Mar23)
Thailand
Epichlorohydrin
CVD / Anti-subsidy investigation
ADD investigation (Sep 23)
China PR
Sulphur Black
ADD investigation
Atul
Sunset review (Jun 23)
China PR
Investigation commenced
Aarti Industries
Imposition of CVD (May 23)
Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand
Meta Phenylene Diamine (MPDA)
Saturated Fatty Alcohol of Carbon
chain length C10 to C18 and their
blends
CVD imposed
Galaxy surfactants, Aarti Surfactants
Sulphur Black
ADD not recommended
Atul Ltd.
Flexible Slabstock Polyol
ADD Investigation initiation
Manali Petrochemicals
Monoisopropylamine
ADD continued
Alkyl amines
Para-Tertiary Butyl Phenol (PTBP)
ADD Investigation initiation
Vinati Organics
Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG)
ADD not recommended
RIL, India Glycols
Sulphur Black
ADD investigation
Atul
ADD investigation (Dec 23)
Sunset Review (Oct 23)
ADD Mid-term review (Oct 23)
Initiation (Sep 23)
Termination of ADD investigation
China
(Apr 23)
Initiation (Mar23)
China PR, Thailand
Sunset review (Dec 22)
Initiation (Dec22)
China PR
South Korea, Singapore, and the
United States of America
Termination of ADD investigation
Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and USA
(Oct 22)
ADD investigation (Sep 22)
China PR
Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals,
Deepak Phenolics
Meghmani Finechem/ Epigral and
DCM Shriram
Imposition of ADD (Sep 22)
China PR, Japan, Korea RP
Toluene Di-isocyanate (TDI)
ADD continued
GNFC
Sunset review (Sep 22)
Pneumatic radial tyres
ADD continued
NOCIL
Styrene Butadiene Rubber (SBR)
ADD continued
RIL
Sunset review (Jun 22)
China PR
European Union, Korea RP,
Thailand
China PR, Japan, Korea RP
Toluene Di-isocyanate (TDI)
ADD continued
GNFC
Sunset review (Apr 22)
China PR
Polytetraflouroethylene (PTFE)
ADD continued
Gujarat Fluorochemicals, SRF
Imposition of ADD (Mar 2022)
China PR, European Union, Russia TDQ, PVI, CBS
ADD recommended
Sunset review (Mar 22)
Bangladesh, Thailand
Hydrogen Peroxide
ADD continued
NOCIL
National Peroxide, Meghmani
Finechem
Melamine
ADD recommended
Sunset review (Jul 22)
European Union, Japan, Qatar
Imposition of ADD (Feb 22)
and United Arab Emirates
Termination of ADD investigation United Arab Emirates (UAE),
(Jan 22)
Russia
ADD Revoked (Jan 22)
China PR
Withdrawal of application by
Soda Ash
domestic players
R-134a/ 1,1,1,2- Tetrafluoroethane ADD Revoked
Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) Blends,
ADD imposed
except 407 and 410
Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC)
ADD imposed
component R-32
GSFC
GHCL, DCW
SRF
Imposition of ADD (Dec 21)
China PR
Imposition of ADD (Dec 21)
China PR
ADD Investigation (Dec 21)
Japan, Iran, Qatar and Oman
Caustic Soda
Sunset review (Oct 21)
China PR
PVC Flex Films
Grasim, DCM Shriram, Meghmani
Finechem, GACL, DCW, Punjab
Alkalies and Andhra Sugars
Withdrawal of ADD recommended SRF
ADD Revoked (Oct 21)
Polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE)
ADD Revoked
Gujarat Fluorochemicals, SRF
Phenol
ADD Revoked
Deepak Nitrite, HOCL
Imposition of ADD (Oct 21)
Russia and Korea RP
European Union, Singapore and
Korea RP
China PR
Aceto Acetyl derivative - Arylides
ADD imposed
Laxmi Organics
Sunset review (Oct 21)
China PR
Tetrafluoroethane/ R-134a
ADD recommended
SRF
Final Finding (Sep 21)
EU, Korea RP, Russia and Thailand Caprolactam
Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC)
China PR
Component R-32
ADD recommended
GSFC
ADD recommended
SRF
ADD Revoked (Oct 21)
Final Finding (Sep 21)
SRF and Gujarat Fluorochemical
SRF
ADD recommended
Initiation (Sep 21)
China PR
Final Finding (Sep 21)
EU, China PR
Sunset review (Sep 21)
Bangladesh and Thailand
Sunset review (Sep 21)
Thailand
Sunset review (Sep 21)
China PR, Japan and Korea RP
Final Finding (Jan 21)
China
Final Finding (Jan 21)
China
Final Finding (Jan 21)
Turkey
Investigation commenced for
Gujarat Fluorochemical, SRF
continuation of imposition of ADD
Rubber Chemicals PX-13 and MOR ADD imposed
National Peroxide and Chlor-Alkali
Hydrogen Peroxide
Investigation commenced
Players
Investigation commenced for
Flexible Slabstock Polyol
Manali Petrochemicals
continuation of imposition of ADD
Toluene Di-isocyanate (TDI)
Investigation commenced
GNFC
Gujarat Fluorochemicals, TGV
Methylene Chloride
Continuation of ADD
SRAAC, Gujarat Alkalies, Meghmani
Positive for GNFC, Negative for
importers (users) such as NOCIL,
Aniline
ADD Imposed
Aarti Industries, Bodal, Bhageria
Chemicals
Soda Ash
ADD Imposed
GHCL, Tata Chemical, DCW
Final Finding (Jan 21)
China PR, Saudi Arabia
Dimethyl Formamide (DMF)
ADD Imposed
Balaji Amines
Sunset Review (Jan 21)
Russia
Phthalic Anhydride
ADD Imposed
IG Petrochem., Thirumalai Chemicals
Polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE)
Source: India Government
Centrum Institutional Research
8
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
Index
Key RMs and Products for Chemical Companies
Key RMs and Products for Chemical Companies
Chemical
Raw Material
Product
Acetic Acid
Jubilant Ingrevia, Laxmi Organics
Ashok Alco-Chem ,GNFC
Acetone
Acrylic Acid
Deepak Nitrite, HOCL
Rossari Biotech
Acrylonitrile
Reliance Industries
ABS
Caprolactam
Bhansali Engineering , Styrenix Performance Materials
SRF
Caustic Soda
EDC
DCM Shriram, DCW, Epigral , GACL, Grasim, TGV SRAAC
Chemplast Sanmar
Ethyl Acetate
Fluorspar
GSFC
Ashok Alco-Chem , GNFC, Jubilant Ingrevia, Laxmi Organics
Gujarat Fluorochemicals, Navin Fluorine, SRF
MDI
BASF
Methanol
Alkyl Amines, Balaji Amines
Palm Kernel Oil (PKO)
Galaxy Surfactants (Lauryl Alcohol derivative of PKO)
Phenol
Clean Science, Vinati Organics
Phthalic Anhydride
GNFC
Deepak Nitrite, HOCL
Soda Ash
IG Petrochemicals, Thirumalai Chemicals
Chemplast Sanmar, DCM Shriram, DCW, Reliance
Industries
DCW, GHCL, Tata Chemicals
TDI
GNFC
PVC
VCM
Chemplast Sanmar
Spreads/ Margins (USD/MT)
Caprolactam-Benzene
GSFC
Phenol/Acetone-Benz./Propylene
Deepak Nitrite, HOCL
Ethyl Acetate-Acetic Acid/ Ethanol
Ashok Alco-Chem , GNFC, Jubilant Ingrevia, Laxmi Organics
PVC-EDC
Chemplast Sanmar
PVC-VCM
Chemplast Sanmar
TDI-Toluene
GNFC
Source: Company
Centrum Institutional Research
9
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
Index
Rabi Sowing Data (till end-December)
Sowing down ~3%, Wheat sowing area down 1%, pulses down ~7%
Rabi - Crop (Lakh ha.)
As on 29/12/2023
Wheat
Rice
Gram
Lentil
Total pulses
Jowar
Maize
Total coarse cereals
Oilseeds
Total
Area sown
2023-24
2022-23
320.5
324.6
14.4
16.6
97.1
105.8
18.7
18.0
142.5
153.2
21.0
21.2
17.5
17.5
47.3
46.6
105.0
105.2
629.6
646.2
Abs. YoY
inc./(dec.)
% Chg. YoY
22-23
(4.0)
(2.2)
(8.8)
0.7
(10.7)
(0.2)
0.0
0.6
(0.2)
(16.5)
(1.2)
(13.3)
(8.3)
3.7
(7.0)
(0.7)
0.1
1.4
(0.2)
(2.6)
Area sown
2021-22
313.8
13.7
105.2
16.6
150.1
23.2
14.6
44.9
95.0
617.4
% Chg. YoY
21-22
3.4
20.9
0.6
8.5
2.1
(8.7)
20.3
4.0
10.7
4.7
Area sown
22/12/2023
308.7
12.7
94.0
18.0
137.1
20.6
16.7
46.0
102.4
606.9
% Chg.
WoW
3.8
13.3
3.2
4.0
3.9
2.0
4.8
2.8
2.5
3.8
Source: Centrum Broking, Government Data
Centrum Institutional Research
10
500
400
300
200
420
Source: Bloomberg
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
993
Source: Bloomberg
3,200
2,000
1,600
1,936
Source: Bloomberg
Centrum Institutional Research
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
600
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
700
1,200
800
800
600
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Chemical Pulse
Index
1,000
Caustic Soda SEA (USD/ MT)
1,600
900
1,400
800
1,200
China Acetone (USD/ MT)
China Caprolactam (USD/MT)
2,800
1,600
2,400
1,400
3 January 2024
Chemical Price Trends
China Acetic Acid (USD/MT)
1,000
800
600
400
200
422
Source: Bloomberg
2,900
China Acrylonitrile (USD/MT)
2,600
2,300
2,000
1,700
1,400
1,380
1,100
800
Source: Bloomberg
China Ethyl Acetate (USD/MT)
1,800
1,200
1,000
936
Source: Bloomberg
11
1,800
1,600
600
1,400
1,200
800
1,077
600
Source: Bloomberg
7,000
China TDI (USD/ MT)
6,000
2,900
5,000
4,000
2,400
3,000
2,352
2,000
1,000
Source: Bloomberg
Centrum Institutional Research
Jul-23
700
400
Oct-23
China Phenol (USD/ MT)
Jan-23
1,000
Index
Apr-23
2,000
Oct-22
Source: Bloomberg
Jul-22
300
Jan-22
1,000
Apr-22
350
Jul-21
2,000
Oct-21
400
Apr-21
3,000
Jan-21
4,000
450
Jul-20
China Fluorspar (USD/MT)
Oct-20
486
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
500
Apr-20
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
550
Jan-20
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
600
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
…continued
China MDI (USD/MT)
6,000
5,000
2,260
0
Source: Bloomberg
China Soda Ash (USD/ MT)
500
347
300
200
100
Source: Bloomberg
Malaysia/ Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil Rotterdam
(USD/ MT)
1,900
1,400
900
950
400
Source: Bloomberg
12
8,400
6,400
4,400
2,400
3,489
400
Source: Bloomberg
4,900
4,400
3,900
3,400
2,900
2,400
1,900
1,400
900
400
2,194
Source: Bloomberg
4,400
3,400
2,400
1,400
2,219
400
Source: Bloomberg
Centrum Institutional Research
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
10,400
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
12,400
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Chemical Pulse
Index
3 January 2024
China Chemical Prices
China Bromine (USD/ MT)
China PVC (USD/ MT)
2,400
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
China Polycarbonate (USD/ MT)
China MDI (USD/ MT)
7,400
1,600
6,400
1,400
5,400
1,200
797
Source: Bloomberg
China Titanium Dioxide (TiO2) (USD/ MT)
3,900
3,400
2,900
2,400
2,310
1,900
1,400
900
400
Source: Bloomberg
China Acetic Acid (USD/ MT)
1,000
800
600
400
200
452
0
Source: Bloomberg
13
200
Source: Bloomberg
1,300
900
700
500
300
100
Source: Bloomberg
1,000
850
800
600
Source: Bloomberg
Centrum Institutional Research
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
600
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
1,000
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Chemical Pulse
Index
2,200
Benzene Rotterdam (USD/ MT)
2,200
1,800
1,800
1,400
1,400
Naphtha Japan (USD/ MT)
1,400
Ethylene Korea (USD/ MT)
1,800
1,200
1,600
400
600
200
400
3 January 2024
Petrochemical Price Trends
Toluene Rotterdam (USD/ MT)
905
1,000
600
940
200
Source: Bloomberg
Ethylene NWE (USD/ MT)
1,100
1,800
1,400
669
1,000
600
735
200
Source: Bloomberg
Propylene NWE (USD/ MT)
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
876
Source: Bloomberg
14
900
815
Source: Bloomberg
3,100
2,700
1,900
1,834
1,500
1,100
Source: Bloomberg
2,500
2,300
1,900
1,700
1,449
1,300
1,100
Source: Bloomberg
Centrum Institutional Research
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
1,300
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
1,500
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Chemical Pulse
Index
Propylene Korea (USD/ MT)
700
1,400
500
1,000
LDPE Europe (USD/ MT)
PP Europe (USD/ MT)
3 January 2024
…continued
2,600
HDPE Europe (USD/ MT)
1,100
2,200
1,800
1,548
Source: Bloomberg
2,600
LLDPE Europe (USD/ MT)
2,300
2,200
1,800
1,647
1,400
1,000
Source: Bloomberg
1,150
EDC SEA (USD/ MT)
2,100
950
750
1,500
550
350
355
150
Source: Bloomberg
15
1,000
600
625
200
Source: Bloomberg
1,100
900
700
535
500
300
1,000
1,055
Source: Bloomberg
Centrum Institutional Research
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
1,400
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
1,800
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Chemical Pulse
Index
VCM SEA (USD/ MT)
MEG SEA (USD/ MT)
PX Rotterdam (USD/ MT)
2,200
3,000
1,800
2,600
1,400
2,200
600
1,400
200
1,000
3 January 2024
…continued
2,000
PVC SEA (USD/ MT)
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
770
Source: Bloomberg
1,300
PTA SEA (USD/ MT)
1,100
900
700
780
500
300
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
ABS SEA (USD/ MT)
1,800
1,280
Source: Bloomberg
16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
900
1,063
700
500
Source: Bloomberg
Centrum Institutional Research
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Chemical Pulse
Index
1,500
Phthalic Anhydride China (USD/ MT)
3,300
1,300
2,800
1,100
2,300
3 January 2024
…continued
ACN SEA (USD/ MT)
1,800
1,300
800
1,240
Source: Bloomberg
3,000
Vinyl Acetate Monomer China (USD/ MT)
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
811
500
0
Source: Bloomberg
17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
10.0
150.0
130.0
110.0
90.0
70.0
50.0
77.6
30.0
Source: Bloomberg
60.0
Centrum Institutional Research
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-…
Jul-18
Oct-…
Jan-19
Apr-…
Jul-19
Oct-…
Jan-20
Apr-…
Jul-20
Oct-…
Jan-21
Apr-…
Jul-21
Oct-…
Jan-22
Apr-…
Jul-22
Oct-…
Jan-23
Apr-…
Jul-23
Oct-…
Chemical Pulse
Index
Brent (USD/ bbl)
3 January 2024
Crude Prices
WTI (USD/ bbl)
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
71.65
40.0
20.0
0.0
Source: Bloomberg
Dubai-Oman (USD/ bbl)
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
76.42
40.0
20.0
Source: Bloomberg
18
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Source: Bloomberg
1,300
1,100
573
900
700
500
300
Source: Bloomberg
700
415
Source: Bloomberg
150
Centrum Institutional Research
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
915
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
1,000
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Chemical Pulse
Index
3 January 2024
Chemicals and Petrochemicals Spreads/Margins
2,000
Caprolactam-Benzene (USD/ MT)
1,400
Phenol/Acetone-Benzene/Propylene(USD/ MT)
1,800
1,200
1,600
1,000
1,400
800
1,200
600
800
200
600
0
PP-Propylene (USD/ MT)
1,000
PVC-EDC (USD/ MT)
400
900
350
800
300
600
200
500
150
400
100
300
50
464
400
Source: Bloomberg
800
Ethylene-Naphtha (USD/ MT)
700
600
500
400
300
66
200
100
0
Source: Bloomberg
PVC-VCM (USD/ MT)
250
145
Source: Bloomberg
350
ETAC- Acetic Acid/ Ethanol
300
250
200
89
100
50
0
Source: Bloomberg
19
101.33
Source: Bloomberg
6.0
6.2
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.4
7.6
Source: Bloomberg
Centrum Institutional Research
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
115
113
110
108
105
103
100
98
95
93
90
88
85
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Chemical Pulse
Index
Dollar Index
USDCNY
3 January 2024
Currency Movement
USDINR
62.0
67.0
72.0
77.0
82.0
83.21
87.0
Source: Bloomberg
65.0
EURINR
6.4
70.0
75.0
7.10
80.0
7.2
85.0
91.94
90.0
95.0
Source: Bloomberg
20
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
Index
Key Chemical prices India (imported) vs Benchmark/ China
Caustic Soda
Acetic Acid
1,520.0
800.0
1,020.0
600.0
520.0
400.0
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
20.0
200.0
SE Asia caustic soda
China Acetic Acid
India caustic soda
Source: Bloomberg, Ministry of Commerce and Industry India
India Acetic Acid
Source: Bloomberg, Ministry of Commerce and Industry India
Phenol
Soda Ash
2,020.0
620.0
520.0
1,520.0
420.0
320.0
1,020.0
220.0
520.0
120.0
India Phenol
Source: Bloomberg, Ministry of Commerce and Industry India
Centrum Institutional Research
Soda Ash China
Dec-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Mar-22
Dec-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-20
Sep-20
Mar-20
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
China Phenol
Dec-19
20.0
20.0
Soda Ash India
Source: Bloomberg, Ministry of Commerce and Industry India
21
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
Index
China Key Chemicals Monthly Production Trend
Phosphate Ore ('000MT)
14000
2018
2021
Sulfuric Acid ('000MT)
2019
2022
12000
2020
2023
9,965
9000
2018
2021
2019
2022
2020
2023
8,174
8000
10000
7000
8000
6000
6000
4000
5000
2000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: China Government, *data till Nov 2023
Source: China Government, *data till Nov 2023
Caustic Soda ('000MT)
2018
2021
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Soda Ash ('000MT)
2019
2022
3700
2020
2023
3,498
2018
2021
2020
2023
3200
3500
3000
3300
2800
3100
2600
2900
2400
2700
2200
2500
2019
2022
2,918
2000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: China Government, *data till Nov 2023
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: China Government, *data till Nov 2023
Ethylene ('000MT)
2018
2021
3000
Chemical Fertilizers ('000MT)
2019
2022
2020
2023
2,694
2018
2021
2019
2022
2020
2023
5500
4,980
2500
5000
2000
4500
1500
4000
1000
3500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: China Government, *data till Nov 2023
Centrum Institutional Research
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: China Government, *data till Nov 2023
22
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
Index
…continued
Pesticides ('000MT)
Synthetic Rubber ('000MT)
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2018
2021
2019
2022
900
300
2020
2023
803
800
250
236
700
600
200
500
150
400
300
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: China Government, *data till Nov 2023
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: China Government, *data till Nov 2023
Syn. Detergents ('000MT)
Syn. Fibre ('000MT)
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
1300
2018
2021
2019
2022
2020
2023
7100
5,961
992
1100
6100
5100
900
4100
700
3100
2100
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Source: China Government, *data till Nov 2023
Centrum Institutional Research
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: China Government, *data till Nov 2023
23
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
Index
India Imports – October 2023
Acetic Acid (MT)
FY20
FY21
Caustic Soda (MT)
FY22
FY23
FY24
1,40,000
1,20,000
FY20
50,000
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
40,000
99,546
1,00,000
30,000
20,276
80,000
20,000
60,000
10,000
40,000
20,000
0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
Phenol (MT)
FY20
FY21
Soda Ash (MT)
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY20
50,000
1,20,000
40,000
1,00,000
30,000
80,000
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
1,03,028
60,000
20,000
18,039
40,000
10,000
20,000
0
0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
Epichlorohydrin (MT)
FY20
FY21
PTFE (MT)
FY22
FY23
FY24
10,000
600
FY20
FY21
FY22
500
8,000
FY23
FY24
472
400
6,000
300
4,000
5,700
200
100
2,000
0
0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
Centrum Institutional Research
Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
24
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
Index
Aniline (MT)
20,000
FY20
FY21
Fluorspar (MT)
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
60,000
50,000
15,000
40,000
10,795
10,000
30,000
20,000
5,000
10,000
8,399
0
0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
VAM (MT)
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
30,000
27,555
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
Centrum Institutional Research
25
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
Index
India Organic Chemicals Imports/Exports – October 2023
Imports (MT)
18,00,000
FY20
FY23
Exports (MT)
FY21
FY24
FY22
12,00,000
16,89,805
16,00,000
10,00,000
14,00,000
8,00,000
12,00,000
6,00,000
10,00,000
4,00,000
8,00,000
2,00,000
FY21
FY24
FY22
3,59,323
0
6,00,000
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
Imports (USD mn)
3,500
FY20
FY23
Exports (USD mn)
FY20
FY21
FY23
FY24
FY22
2,500
FY20
FY23
FY21
FY24
FY22
2,000
3,000
2,241
2,500
1,500
1,472
2,000
1,000
1,500
500
1,000
0
500
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
Import Realisation (USD/Kg)
2.4
FY20
FY23
FY21
FY24
Export Realisation (USD/Kg)
FY22
2.2
6.0
FY20
FY22
FY24
FY21
FY23
5.0
2.0
4.1
4.0
1.8
1.6
3.0
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.0
2.0
1.0
Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
Centrum Institutional Research
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
26
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
Index
India Inorganic Chemicals Imports/Exports – October 2023
Imports (MT)
FY20
Exports (MT)
FY21
FY22
FY20
FY21
FY22
7,00,000
16,00,000
6,00,000
14,00,000
11,95,449
5,00,000
12,00,000
4,00,000
3,72,933
3,00,000
10,00,000
2,00,000
8,00,000
1,00,000
0
6,00,000
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
Imports (USD mn)
FY20
Exports (USD mn)
FY21
FY22
FY20
2,000
400
1,500
300
1,000
FY21
FY22
258
200
779
500
100
0
0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
Import Realisation (USD/Kg)
FY20
FY21
Export Realisation (USD/Kg)
FY22
FY20
FY21
FY22
1.0
1.4
1.2
0.8
1.0
0.7
0.6
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
Centrum Institutional Research
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
27
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
Index
India Agrochemicals Imports/Exports – October 2023
Imports (MT)
FY20
FY21
Exports (MT)
FY22
FY23
FY20
FY24
25,000
80,006
20,000
60,006
15,000
40,006
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
60,494
11,262
10,000
20,006
5,000
6
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
Imports (USD mn)
FY20
FY21
Exports (USD mn)
FY22
FY23
FY20
FY24
350
606
300
506
250
FY21
FY22
406
200
FY23
FY24
347
306
150
83
100
206
50
106
0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
6
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
Import average realization (USD/ kg)
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
Export average realization (USD/ kg)
FY24
26
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
10.0
9.0
21
8.0
16
7.0
6.0
11
7.4
6
Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
5.7
5.0
Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India
Centrum Institutional Research
28
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
Index
Freight Rate and Index
Shanghai Containerized Freight Index
Shanghai Containerized Freight Index
4-Dec-20
13-Jan-21
22-Feb-21
3-Apr-21
13-May-21
22-Jun-21
1-Aug-21
10-Sep-21
20-Oct-21
29-Nov-21
8-Jan-22
17-Feb-22
29-Mar-22
8-May-22
17-Jun-22
27-Jul-22
5-Sep-22
15-Oct-22
24-Nov-22
3-Jan-23
12-Feb-23
24-Mar-23
3-May-23
12-Jun-23
22-Jul-23
31-Aug-23
10-Oct-23
19-Nov-23
29-Dec-23
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange
Container Availability Index (Shanghai 40TEU)
2019
1.0
2020
2021
2022
2023
Shanghai Container Availability Index (CAx, Weekly) - 40TEU
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
31-Dec
3-Dec
17-Dec
19-Nov
5-Nov
8-Oct
22-Oct
24-Sep
10-Sep
27-Aug
13-Aug
30-Jul
2-Jul
16-Jul
4-Jun
18-Jun
7-May
21-May
23-Apr
9-Apr
26-Mar
26-Feb
12-Mar
29-Jan
12-Feb
15-Jan
1-Jan
0.0
Source: Container Exchange
Note: A CAx value of 0.5 means that the same amount of containers leave and enter a port in the same week. CAx values of > 0.5
means that more containers enter and CAx values of < 0.5 means more containers leave a specific port.
At very low CAx values the safety stock at a specific port is nearly empty. As a result, the CAx values turn positive again as only the
containers that enter a port can leave again. At very high equipment levels, CAx values are likely to decrease again as a port has to
reduce its safety stock first before they can accept new incoming containers.
Low CAx values over a time period of multiple weeks indicate a deficit of containers, high values over a time period of multiple
weeks indicate a surplus of equipment at a specific port.
World container index, Freight rates
Composite Index
Shanghai to Rotterdam
20,000
Shanghai to Los Angeles
Shanghai to New York
Accelerated
decline
15,000
10,000
5,000
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
0
Source: Bloomberg
Centrum Institutional Research
29
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
Index
Chemical, Petrochemical, and Crude Prices – Monthly
Chemicals
Chemicals (USD/MT)
Dec-22
Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23
Caustic Soda SEA
654
638
598
460
431
429
403
375
391
China Acetic Acid
428
425
446
450
439
420
387
416
481
China Acetone
857
753
812
898
949
874
750
839
951
China Acrylic Acid
1,061
1,061
1,039
1,233
1,143
1,044
954
873
997
China Acrylonitrile
1,358
1,438
1,565
1,504
1,376
1,314
1,070
1,105
China Caprolactam
1,622
1,787
1,841
1,794
1,861
1,746
1,680
1,705
China Ethanol
1,097
1,152
1,128
1,118
966
949
927
China Ethyl Acetate
973
993
977
952
946
933
China Fluorspar
506
485
450
440
449
China Methanol
342
361
364
360
351
China Phenol
1,138
1,115
1,183
1,175
China Phthalic Anhydride
1,138
1,154
1,194
335
347
357
China TDI
2,544
2,832
China VAM
1,089
Malaysia/ Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil
1,070
MDI
2,229
China Soda Ash
444
480
423
418
644
510
428
447
1,029
1,029
954
971
1,042
1,042
1,037
1,037
1,168
1,304
1,334
1,387
1,380
1,776
1,851
1,743
1,800
1,857
1,001
1,028
1,049
1,062
1,061
1,073
887
918
953
1,053
988
918
934
469
443
438
432
465
518
513
489
321
277
309
328
328
322
319
334
1,171
1,084
940
1,037
1,131
1,291
1,209
1,142
1,104
1,221
1,184
1,105
1,035
1,093
1,159
1,167
1,096
1,005
1,031
356
346
306
241
244
282
369
346
285
347
2,937
2,613
2,748
2,611
2,398
2,481
2,569
2,444
2,487
2,329
2,335
1,119
1,112
1,127
929
919
861
804
911
1,042
1,042
865
811
1,033
1,033
1,099
970
979
941
939
1,028
946
905
961
950
2,142
3,068
2,320
2,302
2,147
2,089
2,232
2,250
2,330
2,260
2,260
2,260
Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23
Jun-23
Source: Bloomberg, Industry
China chemical prices
China chemical prices (USD/MT)
Bromine
Dec-22
Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23
6,502
6,224
5,625
3,920
3,758
3,351
2,522
2,712
3,354
3,320
3,305
3,443
877
917
916
891
869
807
769
797
846
847
805
805
796
Polycarbonate
2,530
2,570
2,507
2,344
2,273
2,200
2,062
2,146
2,278
2,334
2,271
2,219
2,193
Titanium Dioxide (TiO2)
2,289
2,354
2,371
2,484
2,463
2,390
2,242
2,188
2,255
2,341
2,369
2,379
2,316
MDI
3,080
2,211
2,406
2,384
2,256
2,192
2,322
2,280
2,412
2,309
2,184
2,219
2,221
448
440
477
472
473
465
416
437
521
660
563
441
469
PVC
Acetic Acid
3,521
Source: Bloomberg, Industry
Centrum Institutional Research
30
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
Index
Petrochemicals
Petrochemicals (USD/MT)
Dec-22
Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23
Benzene Rotterdam
831
939
1,006
974
1,078
958
901
876
920
1,099
1,040
912
889
Benzene Korea
819
923
940
936
998
879
775
829
911
996
921
887
876
Benzene China
932
999
1,021
1,054
1,075
968
875
939
1,071
1,156
1,086
1,062
975
Toluene Rotterdam
943
1,041
1,059
1,068
1,141
1,040
1,090
1,166
1,272
1,219
1,006
955
933
Naphtha Japan
647
691
733
687
673
589
539
597
660
710
662
646
667
Ethylene NWE
847
904
968
957
985
811
706
633
684
791
721
769
734
Ethylene Korea
851
769
896
927
910
845
733
745
807
848
875
856
846
Propylene NWE
904
983
984
953
1,006
777
574
574
732
710
847
913
861
Propylene Korea
865
869
953
907
906
835
719
739
781
816
819
817
815
Butadiene Korea
789
898
1,140
1,150
1,060
829
608
665
787
1,010
1,033
991
930
Styrene Korea
1,003
1,131
1,108
1,067
1,099
995
909
973
1,040
1,131
1,060
1,046
1,023
HDPE Europe
1,810
1,770
1,709
1,713
1,746
1,655
1,554
1,531
1,486
1,498
1,552
1,593
1,545
LDPE Europe
2,193
2,167
2,095
2,116
2,143
2,046
1,875
1,841
1,791
1,803
1,862
1,900
1,833
LLDPE Europe
1,833
1,789
1,733
1,787
1,839
1,764
1,663
1,641
1,595
1,603
1,650
1,694
1,641
PP Europe
1,740
1,670
1,646
1,677
1,716
1,650
1,538
1,489
1,442
1,443
1,511
1,528
1,456
Polystyrene SEA
1,242
1,258
1,335
1,288
1,305
1,254
1,178
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,270
1,268
1,225
EDC SEA
241
285
295
315
325
347
363
274
265
298
318
329
355
VCM SEA
648
748
810
767
695
681
640
658
716
726
658
631
640
PVC SEA
834
890
910
898
860
830
785
800
892
880
803
782
780
MEG SEA
491
533
530
518
521
504
471
486
478
491
479
492
516
PTA SEA
785
799
800
814
883
782
780
810
803
831
781
779
766
OX China
1,121
1,089
1,116
1,196
1,238
1,145
1,101
1,126
1,197
1,212
1,156
1,056
1,031
PX Rotterdam
1,140
1,221
1,220
1,249
1,336
1,139
1,098
1,139
1,189
1,228
1,189
1,081
1,039
ABS SEA
1,364
1,393
1,448
1,432
1,445
1,364
1,258
1,290
1,318
1,375
1,380
1,332
1,280
Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23
Jun-23
Source: Bloomberg, Industry
Crude
Crude (USD/bbl)
Dec-22
Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23
Brent
82
84
82
79
84
76
75
81
87
95
91
83
78
WTI
77
79
76
74
79
71
70
77
83
90
86
77
72
Dubai-Oman
77
81
82
78
83
74
75
82
87
94
90
82
77
Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23
Jun-23
Source: Bloomberg, Industry
Spreads/ Margins
Spreads/ Margins (USD/MT)
Dec-22
Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23
Caprolactam-Benzene
690
788
820
740
786
778
805
766
706
696
656
738
883
Phenol/Acetone-Benz./Propylene
482
302
348
418
390
400
333
425
491
603
588
507
490
Ethyl Acetate-Acetic Acid/ Ethanol
111
106
87
65
145
154
142
115
91
70
89
75
72
PP-Propylene
835
688
662
724
710
873
965
915
710
734
664
615
595
Ethylene-Naphtha
200
213
235
270
312
222
167
35
24
82
60
123
67
PVC-EDC
593
605
615
583
535
483
423
526
627
583
485
453
425
PVC-VCM
186
143
100
131
165
149
145
143
176
154
145
151
140
Polystyrene-Styrene
TDI-Toluene
239
126
228
221
206
259
269
178
160
119
210
222
203
1,601
1,790
1,878
1,545
1,607
1,571
1,308
1,315
1,297
1,244
1,481
1,374
1,403
Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23
Jun-23
Source: Bloomberg, Industry
Currency
Currency
Dollar Index
Dec-22
Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23
104.4
102.5
103.9
103.7
101.8
103.1
102.9
101.2
103.3
105.5
106.4
104.3
102.4
USDINR
82.4
81.7
82.5
82.2
81.9
82.3
82.1
82.3
82.8
83.0
83.2
83.3
83.2
USDCNY
6.97
6.78
6.86
6.89
6.89
7.01
7.17
7.18
7.25
7.31
7.31
7.21
7.13
EURINR
87.3
87.9
88.4
87.9
89.9
89.3
89.1
90.9
90.2
88.5
87.9
90.0
91.1
Source: Bloomberg, Industry
Centrum Institutional Research
31
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
Index
Chemical, Petrochemical, and Crude Prices – Quarterly
Chemicals
Chemicals (USD/MT)
4QCY2021 1QCY2022 2QCY2022 3QCY2022 4QCY2022 1QCY2023 2QCY2023 3QCY2023 4QCY2023
Caustic Soda SEA
696
701
776
677
693
565
421
403
440
China Acetic Acid
1,059
799
677
484
448
440
416
514
461
930
918
885
746
851
821
857
940
985
China Acrylic Acid
2,749
2,269
2,103
1,558
1,126
1,111
1,047
971
1,039
China Acrylonitrile
2,365
1,788
1,707
1,370
1,458
1,502
1,253
1,192
1,367
China Caprolactam
2,271
2,194
2,163
1,827
1,673
1,807
1,762
1,778
1,800
China Ethanol
1,097
1,143
1,184
1,085
1,064
1,133
947
1,026
1,065
China Ethyl Acetate
1,511
1,313
1,234
1,019
961
974
922
975
946
China Fluorspar
443
436
416
432
474
458
454
445
507
China Methanol
458
414
402
358
363
362
316
322
325
China Phenol
1,490
1,733
1,592
1,399
1,288
1,158
1,065
1,153
1,151
China Phthalic Anhydride
1,142
1,274
1,216
1,222
1,254
1,190
1,108
1,140
1,044
504
335
369
354
329
353
298
299
326
China TDI
2,287
2,969
2,627
2,547
2,792
2,794
2,586
2,504
2,384
China VAM
2,630
2,069
2,352
1,657
1,174
1,135
994
875
906
Malaysia/ Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil
1,973
2,446
1,815
1,278
1,060
1,056
940
971
939
MDI
3,284
3,211
2,810
2,420
2,156
2,510
2,179
2,272
2,260
China Acetone
China Soda Ash
Source: Bloomberg, Industry (Note: # YTD average)
China Chemical Prices
Chemicals (USD/MT)
Bromine
4QCY2021 1QCY2022 2QCY2022 3QCY2022 4QCY2022 1QCY2023 2QCY2023 3QCY2023 4QCY2023
10,064
8,960
8,579
7,532
6,590
5,178
3,210
3,129
PVC
1,570
1,367
1,278
947
856
907
815
830
3,434
801
Polycarbonate
3,712
3,519
3,173
2,513
2,536
2,469
2,178
2,253
2,224
Titanium Dioxide (TiO2)
3,264
3,290
3,136
2,588
2,244
2,403
2,365
2,262
2,345
MDI
3,301
3,301
3,301
3,301
3,228
2,330
2,256
2,334
2,208
Acetic Acid
1,095
836
719
489
469
463
452
539
495
Source: Bloomberg, Industry (Note: # YTD average)
Centrum Institutional Research
32
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
Index
Petrochemicals
Petrochemicals (USD/MT)
Benzene Rotterdam
4QCY2021 1QCY2022 2QCY2022 3QCY2022 4QCY2022 1QCY2023 2QCY2023 3QCY2023 4QCY2023
1,004
1,129
1,453
991
833
973
979
965
Benzene Korea
947
1,076
1,245
973
841
933
884
912
893
Benzene China
1,142
1,257
1,378
1,212
998
1,025
973
1,055
1,028
Toluene Rotterdam
838
1,042
1,491
1,257
1,096
1,056
1,090
1,219
961
Naphtha Japan
749
873
885
709
681
704
600
656
661
Ethylene NWE
1,214
1,399
1,422
917
832
943
834
703
736
Ethylene Korea
1,074
1,131
1,145
879
849
864
829
800
858
Propylene NWE
1,371
1,517
1,467
670
856
973
785
672
865
Propylene Korea
1,003
1,140
1,103
890
855
909
820
779
817
Butadiene Korea
943
735
1,063
1,465
1,064
778
1,063
832
821
975
Styrene Korea
1,161
1,258
1,385
1,162
1,009
1,102
1,001
1,048
1,039
HDPE Europe
2,095
2,110
2,290
1,884
1,748
1,731
1,652
1,505
1,556
LDPE Europe
2,598
2,596
2,734
2,239
2,117
2,126
2,021
1,812
1,855
LLDPE Europe
2,184
2,186
2,385
1,898
1,766
1,769
1,755
1,613
1,654
PP Europe
2,168
2,158
2,203
1,746
1,685
1,664
1,635
1,458
1,487
Polystyrene SEA
1,526
1,584
1,644
1,445
1,297
1,294
1,246
1,200
1,248
EDC SEA
959
837
673
403
271
298
345
279
338
VCM SEA
1,380
1,218
1,169
772
658
775
672
700
644
PVC SEA
1,622
1,396
1,378
985
827
899
825
857
788
MEG SEA
716
692
633
527
480
527
499
485
499
PTA SEA
742
857
987
874
825
804
815
815
774
1,023
1,182
1,266
1,197
1,216
1,134
1,161
1,178
1,077
937
1,165
1,476
1,245
1,180
1,230
1,191
1,185
1,097
2,298
1,983
1,966
1,585
1,417
1,424
1,356
1,328
1,323
OX China
PX Rotterdam
ABS SEA
Source: Bloomberg, Industry
Crude
Crude (USD/bbl)
4QCY2021 1QCY2022 2QCY2022 3QCY2022 4QCY2022 1QCY2023 2QCY2023 3QCY2023 4QCY2023
Brent
78.7
99.6
113.7
98.9
89
82
78
87
84
WTI
77.4
95.0
109.6
91.5
83
76
74
83
78
Dubai-Oman
77.8
96.3
109.2
97.1
85
80
77
87
83
Source: Bloomberg, Industry
Spreads/ Margins
Spreads/ Margins (USD/MT)
Caprolactam-Benzene
4QCY2021 1QCY2022 2QCY2022 3QCY2022 4QCY2022 1QCY2023 2QCY2023 3QCY2023 4QCY2023
1,139
937
785
615
675
783
790
722
780
Phenol/Acetone-Benz./Propylene
699
746
451
526
615
356
374
507
526
Ethyl Acetate-Acetic Acid/ Ethanol
208
175
158
126
103
86
147
92
78
PP-Propylene
798
641
736
1,076
828
691
849
786
622
Ethylene-Naphtha
465
525
537
208
151
239
234
47
75
PVC-EDC
663
559
706
582
556
601
480
579
450
PVC-VCM
242
178
210
213
169
125
153
157
144
Polystyrene-Styrene
TDI-Toluene
366
326
260
283
288
192
245
152
209
1,451
1,927
1,136
1,290
1,696
1,738
1,495
1,285
1,423
Source: Bloomberg, Industry
Currency
Currency
4QCY2021 1QCY2022 2QCY2022 3QCY2022 4QCY2022 1QCY2023 2QCY2023 3QCY2023 4QCY2023
Dollar Index
95.1
96.9
102.8
108.3
108.0
103.4
102.6
103.4
104.4
USDINR
74.9
75.1
77.3
79.8
82.2
82.14
82.11
82.72
83.24
USDCNY
6.39
6.35
6.62
6.85
7.11
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.2
EURINR
85.7
84.4
82.2
80.4
83.8
88
89
90
90
Source: Bloomberg, Industry
Centrum Institutional Research
33
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
Index
Chemical, Petrochemical, and Crude Prices –Yearly
Chemicals
Chemicals (USD/MT)
CY2017
CY2018
CY2019
CY2020
CY2021
CY2022
CY2023
Dec-23
Caustic Soda SEA
539
503
357
282
425
712
457
418
China Acetic Acid
443
684
438
384
1,017
602
458
447
China Acetone
930
796
568
1,038
1,033
850
901
971
China Acrylic Acid
1,342
1,376
1,171
1,103
1,943
1,764
1,042
1,037
China Acrylonitrile
1,914
2,385
1,786
1,297
2,245
1,581
1,329
1,380
China Caprolactam
2,253
2,446
1,812
1,441
2,147
1,964
1,787
1,857
China Ethanol
739
894
803
926
1,122
1,119
1,043
1,073
China Ethyl Acetate
868
1,085
846
872
1,434
1,132
954
934
China Fluorspar
329
443
445
398
410
440
466
489
China Methanol
373
417
303
252
393
384
331
334
China Phenol
1,185
1,574
1,189
928
1,382
1,503
1,132
1,104
China Phthalic Anhydride
1,049
1,115
927
789
1,018
1,242
1,120
1,031
-
-
-
195
340
347
319
347
4,787
4,370
1,936
1,789
2,247
2,734
2,565
2,335
811
China Soda Ash
China TDI
China VAM
975
1,250
967
815
2,077
1,812
959
1,274
923
657
812
1,608
1,656
982
950
-
2,598
2,635
2,555
3,095
2,663
2,305
2,260
CY2017
CY2018
CY2019
CY2020
CY2021
CY2022
CY2023
Dec-23
4,239
4,533
4,757
4,353
7,168
7,915
3,738
3,521
947
1,006
966
966
1,419
1,112
838
796
Polycarbonate
3,343
3,974
2,694
2,219
3,845
2,935
2,282
2,193
Titanium Dioxide (TiO2)
2,667
2,625
2,299
2,160
3,141
2,814
2,343
2,316
MDI
3,990
3,532
3,301
3,301
3,301
3,283
2,281
2,221
456
696
428
393
1,034
628
487
469
Malaysia/ Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil
MDI
China Chemical Prices
Chemicals (USD/MT)
Bromine
PVC
Acetic Acid
Centrum Institutional Research
34
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2024
Index
Petrochemicals
Petrochemicals (USD/MT)
CY2017
CY2018
CY2019
CY2020
CY2021
CY2022
CY2023
Dec-23
Benzene Rotterdam
862
831
695
497
1,040
1,102
965
889
Benzene Korea
818
819
640
485
918
1,033
905
876
Benzene China
999
982
729
574
1,107
1,211
1,020
975
Toluene Rotterdam
655
758
716
442
775
1,221
1,082
933
Naphtha Japan
497
615
526
383
657
787
655
667
Ethylene NWE
1,119
1,158
956
678
1,204
1,142
804
734
Ethylene Korea
1,151
1,214
849
728
1,022
1,001
838
846
Propylene NWE
956
1,184
960
788
1,341
1,127
824
861
Propylene Korea
879
1,036
881
796
1,022
997
831
815
Butadiene Korea
1,487
1,416
1,051
702
998
1,092
923
930
Styrene Korea
1,219
1,300
979
728
1,160
1,202
1,048
1,023
HDPE Europe
1,551
1,609
1,440
1,291
2,075
2,008
1,611
1,545
LDPE Europe
1,645
1,692
1,491
1,376
2,495
2,422
1,953
1,833
LLDPE Europe
1,582
1,613
1,403
1,272
2,159
2,059
1,698
1,641
PP Europe
1,476
1,664
1,480
1,302
2,092
1,948
1,561
1,456
Polystyrene SEA
1,375
1,510
1,218
1,045
1,497
1,492
1,247
1,225
EDC SEA
267
310
349
312
759
546
315
355
VCM SEA
748
751
733
737
1,231
954
698
640
PVC SEA
896
921
860
883
1,455
1,146
842
780
MEG SEA
854
918
579
472
678
583
503
516
PTA SEA
669
870
743
475
714
886
802
766
OX China
916
1,006
887
663
935
1,215
1,138
1,031
PX Rotterdam
766
981
806
504
880
1,266
1,176
1,039
1,854
1,907
1,469
1,517
2,384
1,738
1,358
1,280
ABS SEA
Source: Bloomberg, Industry
Crude
Crude (USD/bbl.)
CY2017
CY2018
CY2019
CY2020
CY2021
CY2022
CY2023
Dec-23
Brent
54.6
70.3
64.7
42.8
70.3
100.3
82.8
77.8
WTI
51.0
64.8
57.0
39.7
68.1
94.9
77.9
71.9
Dubai-Oman
53.2
69.1
63.6
42.7
68.9
97.0
82.0
77.1
CY2017
CY2018
CY2019
CY2020
CY2021
CY2022
CY2023
Dec-23
Source: Bloomberg, Industry
Spreads/ Margins
Spreads/ Margins (USD/MT)
Caprolactam-Benzene
1,254
1,459
1,075
873
1,041
753
769
883
Phenol/Acetone-Benz./Propylene
414
646
429
637
681
585
441
490
Ethyl Acetate-Acetic Acid/ Ethanol
183
154
130
128
167
140
101
72
PP-Propylene
521
479
521
511
751
820
737
595
Ethylene-Naphtha
626
539
427
303
547
355
149
67
PVC-EDC
631
607
512
574
696
601
527
425
PVC-VCM
148
169
126
147
224
192
145
140
Polystyrene-Styrene
TDI-Toluene
156
213
237
323
337
290
199
203
4,174
3,534
1,210
1,355
1,499
1,512
1,484
1,403
Source: Bloomberg, Industry
Currency
Currency
CY2017
CY2018
CY2019
CY2020
CY2021
CY2022
CY2023
Dec-23
Dollar Index
96.5
93.6
97.4
95.9
92.5
104.0
103.4
102.4
USDINR
65.1
68.4
70.4
74.1
73.9
78.61
82.55
83.2
USDCNY
6.76
6.62
6.91
6.90
6.45
6.7
7.1
7.13
EURINR
73.5
80.6
78.8
84.5
87.4
83
89
91.1
Source: Bloomberg, Industry
Centrum Institutional Research
35
Chemical Pulse
03 January 2023
Disclaimer
Centrum Broking Limited (“Centrum”) is a full-service, Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange, Mumbai (BSE) and National Stock
Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE). Our holding company, Centrum Capital Ltd, is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities. As a group Centrum has
Investment Banking, Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group. Our research
professionals provide important inputs into the Group's Investment Banking and other business selection processes.
Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking, advisory, project finance or other businesses
and may receive commission, brokerage, fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of this material/report. Our
Company and Group companies and their officers, directors and employees, including the analysts and others involved in the preparation or issuance of this
material and their dependants, may on the date of this report or from, time to time have "long" or "short" positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the
securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1% or more in the equity of this company Our sales
people, dealers, traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that
are contrary to the opinions expressed herein, and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with
the recommendations expressed herein. We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on the companies covered herein with recommendations/
information inconsistent or different those made in this report. In reviewing this document, you should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other
things, may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest. We and our Group may rely on information barriers, such as "Chinese Walls" to control the flow of
information contained in one or more areas within us, or other areas, units, groups or affiliates of Centrum. Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in
the security of the company for which this report or any report was written. Further, Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject company’s
securities at the time that the research report was published.
This report is for information purposes only and this document/material should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy,
purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with
any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein. It is for the general information
of the clients of Centrum. Though disseminated to clients simultaneously, not all clients may receive this report at the same time. Centrum will not treat
recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment
objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Similarly, this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial
situation/circumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. The securities discussed in this report may not be
suitable for all investors. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. The countries in which
the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments, voting rights or dealings in securities by nationals of other
countries. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor's individual circumstances and objectives. Persons who may
receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for his/ her/their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek
professional/financial advice. Any such person shall be responsible for conducting his/her/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained
or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in the securities forming the subject matter of this document.
The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant
uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on
which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results, and such variances will likely increase over
time. All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company. These
projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accepted accounting principles. No
independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts. You should not regard the inclusion of
the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company, Centrum, the authors of this report or any
other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved. For these reasons, you should only consider the projections
and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report, including the assumptions underlying such projections and
forecasts.
The price and value of the investments referred to in this document/material and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize
losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capital may occur.
Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without
notice. Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients, and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potential investment. Centrum and
its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Foreign currencies denominated securities are subject
to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived from the investment. In addition, investors in
securities such as ADRs, the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk. Certain transactions including those involving
futures, options, and other derivatives as well as non-investment-grade securities give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please
ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into any derivative transactions.
This report/document has been prepared by Centrum, based upon information available to the public and sources, believed to be reliable. No representation
or warranty, express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete. Centrum has reviewed the report and, in so far as it includes current or historical
information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The opinions expressed in this document/material
are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change.
This report or recommendations or information contained herein do/does not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessible
media and should not be reproduced, transmitted or published by the recipient. The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only. This publication
may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum. This report or any portion hereof may not be
printed, sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum.
The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform
themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Neither Centrum nor its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages
whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the
information.
This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anything contained
herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your
information, may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. The distribution of this
report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselves about, and observe any
such restrictions. By accepting this report, you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations. No representation is made that this report is accurate or
complete.
Centrum Institutional Research
36
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2023
The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Broking and
are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of this report
and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, estimate or projection.
This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of, or by arrangement with the company or any of its
directors or any other person. Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or its directors
or any other person. Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors. None of the company or its directors or any other person
accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.
Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co-managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months. Centrum and affiliates
have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for
service in respect of public offerings, corporate finance, debt restructuring, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger/acquisition or some
other sort of specific transaction.
As per the declarations given by them, Mr. Rohit Nagraj & Mr. Kunal Pai, research analyst and and/or any of their family members do not serve as an officer,
director or any way connected to the company/companies mentioned in this report. Further, as declared by them, they are not received any compensation
from the above companies in the preceding twelve months. They do not hold any shares by them or through their relatives or in case if holds the shares then
will not to do any transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report. Our entire research professionals are our employees and are
paid a salary. They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason
to know at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance.
While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, Centrum, its associated companies, their directors and employees are
under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrum from
doing so.
Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable
regulations and/or Centrum policies, in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or any certain other circumstances.
This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state,
country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject Centrum
Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Specifically, this document does not constitute an
offer to or solicitation to any U.S. person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction to any U.S. person
unless otherwise stated, this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction. No part of this document may be distributed in
Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom. The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any
manner whatsoever and any unauthorized reading, dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly
authorized. Please ensure that you have read “Risk Disclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segments” as prescribed by Securities and
Exchange Board of India before investing in Indian Securities Market.
Ratings definitions
Our ratings denote the following 12-month forecast returns:
Buy – The stock is expected to return above 15%.
Add – The stock is expected to return 5-15%.
Reduce – The stock is expected to deliver -5-+5% returns.
Sell – The stock is expected to deliver <-5% returns.
Centrum Institutional Research
37
Chemical Pulse
3 January 2023
Disclosure of Interest Statement
1 Business activities of Centrum Broking Centrum Broking Limited (hereinafter referred to as “CBL”) is a registered member of NSE (Cash, F&O and Currency Derivatives
Limited (CBL)
Segments), MCX-SX (Currency Derivatives Segment) and BSE (Cash segment), Depository Participant of CDSL and a SEBI registered
Portfolio Manager.
2 Details of Disciplinary History of CBL
CBL has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority from accessing /dealing in securities market.
3 Registration status of CBL:
CBL is registered with SEBI as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH000001469)
4 Whether Research analyst’s or relatives’ have any financial interest in the subject company and nature of such financial interest
No
5 Whether Research analyst or relatives have actual / beneficial ownership of 1% or more in securities of the subject company at the end of the month
immediately preceding the date of publication of the document.
No
6 Whether the research analyst or his relatives has any other material conflict of interest
No
7 Whether research analyst has received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months and nature of products / services for which
such compensation is received
No
8 Whether the Research Analyst has received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the
research report
No
9 Whether Research Analysts has served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company
No
10 Whether the Research Analyst has been engaged in market making activity of the subject company.
No
11 Whether it or its associates have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months;
No
12
Whether it or its associates have received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company
in the past twelve months;
No
13
Whether it or its associates have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage
services from the subject company in the past twelve months;
No
Member (NSE and BSE). Member MSEI (Inactive)
Single SEBI Regn. No.: INZ000205331
Depository Participant (DP)
CDSL DP ID: 120 – 12200
Single SEBI Regn. No.: IN-DP-537-2020
PORTFOLIO MANAGER
SEBI REGN NO.: INP000004383
Research Analyst
SEBI Registration No. INH000001469
Mutual Fund Distributor
AMFI REGN No. ARN- 147569
Website: www.centrumbroking.com
Investor Grievance Email ID: investor.grievances@centrum.co.in
Compliance Officer Details:
Ajay S Bendkhale
(022) 4215 9000/9023; Email ID: compliance@centrum.co.in
Centrum Broking Ltd. (CIN :U67120MH1994PLC078125)
Registered and Corporate Office:
Level -9, Centrum House, C.S.T. Road,
Vidyanagari Marg, Kalina,
Santacruz (East) Mumbai – 400098
Tel.: - +91 22 4215 9000
Centrum Institutional Research
38
Download