Institutional Research Monthly Report India I Chemicals 03 January 2023 Chemical Pulse NIFTY 50: 21,517 BSE Sensex: 71,357 Crude corrects; chemical, petchem prices decline and spreads contract During December, chemical prices generally declined MoM with ~6% correction in crude. China VAM/ Fluorspar prices fell 6%/ 5% MoM while Soda Ash, Methanol, and Acetic Acid prices rose by 22%/ 5%/ 4%. Decline in crude led to decline in petchem, building blocks, monomer, and polymer prices. Caprolactam-Benzene spreads expanded 10% MoM while Ethyl Acetate-Acetic Acid/Ethanol and Phenol/Acetone-Benz./Prop. Spreads contracted 3% and 2% MoM respectively. During 3QCY2023, EU27 chemical production saw a marginal 0.5% rise QoQ, however in 9MCY2023, EU27 chemical industry reported 10.6% drop in production, third largest decline. Capacity utilizations declined and stood at 74.1%. In US, the inventory destocking has largely come to an end and chemical production is expected to fall 1% YoY in 2023. Chemicals – Generally prices rose QoQ Acetic Acid – Up 4.4% MoM and down 10.2% QoQ, positive for GNFC while negative for consumers such as Laxmi Organic/ Jubilant Ingrevia Caustic Soda (SEA) – Declined 1.3% MoM while rose 9.2% QoQ Fluorspar – Declined 4.6% MoM while rose 13.9% QoQ Soda Ash (China) – Up 21.8% MoM and up 9.2% QoQ. China prices remain disconnected from Indian prices due to local demand-supply dynamics. On 30 November, Tata Chemicals revised domestic Soda Ash prices downwards by ~3.4%, to Rs28,800/MT (light soda ash) from earlier Rs29,800/MT (previous downward revision by ~5.7% on 2 August 2023) Phenol/ Acetone – Down 3.4%/ Up 1.8% MoM, phenol remained flattish QoQ while Acetone rose 4.8% QoQ China VAM/ Phthalic Anhydride – Down 6.3%/ Up 2.5% MoM, down 1.4%/ 8.4% QoQ Palm Kernel Oil (PKO) – Down 1.1% MoM and 3.3% QoQ, resultant Lauryl Alcohol (derivative of PKO) prices may decline, positive for Galaxy Surfactants to some extent Crude/ Petrochem – Crude down ~6% MoM and ~5% QoQ Brent/ WTI – Down 6.0%/ 6.5% MoM, down 4.0%/ 5.8% QoQ Benzene (Korea)/ Toluene (Rotterdam) – Down 0.7%/ 1.3% MoM while Benzene declined 2.1% QoQ and Toluene declined 21.1% QoQ HDPE/ LDPE/ LLDPE – Down 1.5-2.0% MoM, Up 2-3% QoQ EDC/ VCM – EDC up 4.2% MoM and 21.1% QoQ while VCM up 0.8% MoM and down 8% QoQ PVC – flattish MoM, down 8.1% QoQ Spreads/ margins – Ethyl Acetate-Acetic Acid/Ethanol and Phenol/ Acetone-Benzene/ Propylene spreads contract while Caprolactam-Benzene spreads surge MoM Caprolactam-Benzene – Up 10.0% MoM and 8.0% QoQ, positive for GSFC Ethyl Acetate-Acetic Acid/Ethanol – Contracted 2.5% MoM and 15.0% QoQ, negative for Laxmi Organic, Jubilant Ingrevia Phenol/Acetone-Benzene/Propylene – Contracted 1.9% MoM while up 3.8% QoQ, marginal negative for Deepak Nitrite PVC-EDC – Contracted 3.5% MoM and 22.2% QoQ PVC-VCM – Contracted 4.2% MoM and 8.7% QoQ, negative for Chemplast Sanmar TDI-Toluene – Expanded 1.1% MoM and 11.3% QoQ, positive for GNFC Please see Disclaimer for analyst certifications and all other important disclosures. ('000 MT) Caustic Soda Chemical Fertilisers Ethylene Pesticide Phosphate Ore Soda Ash Sulfuric Acid Syn. Detergents Synthetic Fiber Synthetic Rubber Nov-23 3,498 4,980 2,694 236 9,965 2,918 8,174 992 5,961 803 % Chg. YoY 5.6 10.4 7.4 10.3 4.8 9.1 0.3 3.5 17.9 11.1 Source: China Data, Industry Rating and Target prices Company Rating Price*(Rs) TP(Rs) Aarti Industries BUY 652 604 Anupam Rasayan SELL 1,091 863 Atul Ltd. REDUCE 7,161 6,623 Deepak Nitrite ADD 2,480 2,282 Dhanuka Agritech ADD 1,151 945 Galaxy Surfactants REDUCE 2,767 2.948 Gujarat Fluorochem ADD 3,892 2,932 Navin Fluorine ADD 3,868 3,881 PI Industries ADD 3,464 3,785 SRF REDUCE 2,507 2,254 UPL BUY 587 771 Vinati Organics SELL 1,741 1,641 Source: Centrum Broking, *as on 03 January 2024 Rohit Nagraj Research Analyst, Chemicals +91-022 4215 9645 rohit.nagraj@centrum.co.in Kunal Pai Research Associate, Chemicals +91-22 4215 9815 kunal.pai@centrum.co.in Chemicals China key chemicals production (November 2023) – Soda Ash production surges 11% YoY till November 2023 Soda Ash – Down 5.7% MoM, up 9.1% YoY, Nov-23 cum. up 10.5% YoY Caustic Soda – Down 1.0% MoM, up 5.6% YoY, Nov-23 cum. up 3.7% YoY Pesticides – Down 1.7% MoM, up 10.3% YoY, Nov -23 cum. up 1.7% YoY Phosphate Ore – Down 15.0% MoM, Up 4.8% YoY, Nov-23 cum. down 1.6% YoY Synthetic Fiber – Up 1.8% MoM, Up 17.9% YoY, Nov -23 cum. up 5.8% YoY China key chemicals monthly production – November 2023 Chemical Pulse 03 January 2023 EU27 chemical production up 0.5% QoQ in 3QCY23, first time in past six quarters, modest recovery expected in US for 2024. (Chemicals sector – Recovery in Sight or Mirage?) During 3QCY2023, EU27 chemical production saw a marginal 0.5% rise QoQ which is still below 10% of 2019 levels which was a recession year for the EU27 chemical industry. In 9MCY2023, EU27 chemical industry reported 10.6% drop in production, third largest decline. Capacity utilizations declined and stood at 74.1%. In US, the inventory destocking has largely come to an end and chemical production is expected to fall 1% YoY in 2023. In 2024, modest recovery is expected with production growth of 1.5%. China dumping is largely absorbed globally and based on global chemical companies’ commentaries, inventory destocking is coming to an end. Europe has remained a dampener over the past several quarters and rising QoQ/ MoM production provides some signs of recovery. Indian chemical sector has been impacted by declining exports and signs of recovery bode well from exports perspective. ACC, US envisages modest recovery in 2024 with 1.5% rise in chemicals output while a stronger 2.9% YoY global chemical production growth is expected in 2024. Centrum Institutional Research 2 Chemical Pulse 03 January 2023 Table of Contents Chemical, Petrochemical Price Trends – December 23 ..................................................... 4 China Key Chemicals Monthly Production Trend – Nov 23 ............................................... 6 Global Chemicals Production and Outlook ....................................................................... 7 Anti-dumping (ADD) Impositions/ Investigations ............................................................. 8 Key RMs and Products for Chemical Companies ............................................................... 9 Rabi Sowing Data (till end-December) ............................................................................ 10 Chemical Price Trends .................................................................................................... 11 China Chemical Prices .................................................................................................... 13 Petrochemical Price Trends ............................................................................................ 14 Crude Prices ................................................................................................................... 18 Chemicals and Petrochemicals Spreads/Margins ........................................................... 19 Currency Movement ...................................................................................................... 20 Key Chemical prices India (imported) vs Benchmark/ China ........................................... 21 China Key Chemicals Monthly Production Trend ............................................................ 22 India Imports – October 2023 ......................................................................................... 24 India Organic Chemicals Imports/Exports – October 2023.............................................. 26 India Inorganic Chemicals Imports/Exports – October 2023 ........................................... 27 India Agrochemicals Imports/Exports – October 2023.................................................... 28 Freight Rate and Index ................................................................................................... 29 Chemical, Petrochemical, and Crude Prices – Monthly ................................................... 30 Chemical, Petrochemical, and Crude Prices – Quarterly ...................................................... 32 Chemical, Petrochemical, and Crude Prices –Yearly ............................................................ 34 Centrum Institutional Research 3 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 Index Chemical, Petrochemical Price Trends – December 23 Chemical prices (USD/MT) Latest Dec-23 Nov-23 4Q2023 3Q2023 2023 2022 2021 % MoM % QoQ % YoY Caustic Soda SEA 420 418 423 440 403 457 712 433 (1.3) 9.2 (35.7) China Acetic Acid 422 447 428 461 514 458 602 1,017 4.4 (10.2) (24.0) China Acetone 993 971 954 985 940 901 850 1,033 1.8 4.8 5.9 China Acrylic Acid 1,037 1,037 1,037 1,039 971 1,042 1,764 1,894 0.0 7.0 (40.9) China Acrylonitrile 1,380 1,380 1,387 1,367 1,192 1,329 1,581 2,245 (0.5) 14.6 (16.0) China Caprolactam 1,936 1,857 1,800 1,800 1,778 1,787 1,964 2,147 3.2 1.3 (9.0) China Ethanol 1,077 1,073 1,061 1,065 1,026 1,043 1,119 1,122 1.1 3.8 (6.8) China Ethyl Acetate 936 934 918 946 975 954 1,132 1,434 1.7 (2.9) (15.7) China Fluorspar 486 489 513 507 445 466 440 410 (4.6) 13.9 6.0 China Methanol 327 334 319 325 322 331 384 390 4.8 0.9 (13.8) China Phenol 1,077 1,104 1,142 1,151 1,153 1,132 1,503 1,382 (3.4) (0.1) (24.7) China Phthalic Anhydride 1,063 1,031 1,005 1,044 1,140 1,120 1,242 1,018 2.5 (8.4) (9.8) 347 347 285 326 299 319 347 340 21.8 9.2 (8.0) 2,352 2,335 2,329 2,384 2,498 2,565 2,734 2,247 0.3 (4.6) (6.2) China VAM 811 811 865 906 919 959 1,797 2,028 (6.3) (1.4) (46.7) Malaysia/ Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil 950 950 961 939 971 982 1,656 1,572 (1.1) (3.3) (40.7) 2,260 2,260 2,260 2,260 2,272 2,305 2,663 3,094 0.0 (0.5) (13.4) China Soda Ash China TDI MDI Source: Bloomberg, Industry Note: Latest prices for the week ended 29 December 2023 China Chemical Prices (USD/MT) Latest Dec-23 Nov-23 4Q2023 3Q2023 2023 2022 2021 % MoM % QoQ % YoY Bromine 3,489 3,521 3,478 3,434 3,129 3,738 7,915 7,168 1.2 9.8 (52.8) 797 796 801 801 830 838 1,112 1,419 (0.6) (3.5) (24.6) Polycarbonate 2,194 2,193 2,207 2,224 2,253 2,282 2,935 3,845 (0.7) (1.3) (22.3) Titanium Dioxide (TiO2) 2,310 2,316 2,351 2,345 2,262 2,343 2,814 3,141 (1.5) 3.7 (16.8) MDI 2,219 2,221 2,220 2,208 2,334 2,281 3,283 3,301 0.0 (5.4) (30.5) 452 469 453 495 539 487 628 1,034 3.5 (8.2) (22.4) PVC Acetic Acid Source: Bloomberg, Industry Note: Latest prices for the week ended 29 December 2023 Centrum Institutional Research 4 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 Index Petrochemical prices (USD/MT) Latest Dec-23 Nov-23 4Q2023 3Q2023 2023 2022 2021 % MoM % QoQ % YoY Benzene Rotterdam 905 889 902 943 965 965 1,102 1,031 (1.4) (2.2) (12.4) Benzene Korea 890 876 882 893 912 905 1,033 911 (0.7) (2.1) (12.4) Benzene China 1,021 975 1,023 1,028 1,055 1,020 1,211 1,097 (4.7) (2.6) (15.8) Toluene Rotterdam 940 933 945 961 1,219 1,082 1,221 780 (1.3) (21.1) (11.4) Naphtha Japan 669 667 655 661 656 655 787 651 1.8 0.8 (16.8) Ethylene NWE 735 734 753 736 703 804 1,142 1,184 (2.6) 4.8 (29.6) Ethylene Korea 850 846 852 858 800 838 1,001 1,011 (0.6) 7.2 (16.3) Propylene NWE 876 861 889 865 672 824 1,127 1,311 (3.3) 28.8 (26.9) Propylene Korea 815 815 816 817 779 831 997 1,013 (0.1) 4.9 (16.6) Butadiene Korea 925 930 964 975 821 923 1,092 987 (3.5) 18.9 (15.5) Styrene Korea 1,040 1,023 1,036 1,039 1,048 1,048 1,202 1,152 (1.3) (0.8) (12.9) HDPE Europe 1,548 1,545 1,572 1,556 1,505 1,611 2,008 2,054 (1.7) 3.4 (19.8) LDPE Europe 1,834 1,833 1,870 1,855 1,812 1,953 2,422 2,468 (2.0) 2.4 (19.3) LLDPE Europe 1,647 1,641 1,670 1,654 1,613 1,698 2,059 2,136 (1.7) 2.5 (17.5) PP Europe 1,449 1,456 1,496 1,487 1,458 1,561 1,948 2,067 (2.7) 2.0 (19.8) Polystyrene SEA 1,220 1,225 1,249 1,248 1,200 1,247 1,492 1,485 (1.9) 4.0 (16.5) EDC SEA 355 355 341 338 279 315 546 737 4.2 21.1 (42.3) VCM SEA 625 640 635 644 700 698 954 1,207 0.8 (8.0) (26.9) PVC SEA 770 780 781 788 857 842 1,146 1,429 (0.1) (8.1) (26.5) MEG SEA 535 516 503 499 485 503 583 670 2.7 2.9 (13.8) PTA SEA 780 766 773 774 815 802 886 714 (0.9) (5.0) (9.5) OX China 1,042 1,031 1,045 1,077 1,178 1,138 1,215 938 (1.4) (8.6) (6.4) PX Rotterdam 1,055 1,039 1,062 1,097 1,185 1,176 1,266 883 (2.2) (7.5) (7.2) ABS SEA 1,280 1,280 1,309 1,323 1,328 1,358 1,738 2,350 (2.2) (0.4) (21.9) Source: Bloomberg, Industry Note: Latest prices for the week ended 29 December 2023 Crude prices (USD/bbl) Latest Dec-23 Nov-23 4Q2023 3Q2023 2023 2022 2021 % MoM % QoQ % YoY Brent 78 78 83 84 87 83 100 70 (6.0) (4.0) (17.4) WTI 72 72 77 78 83 78 95 68 (6.5) (5.8) (17.9) Dubai-Oman 76 77 82 83 87 82 97 69 (6.6) (4.9) (15.4) % YoY Source: Bloomberg, Industry Note: Latest prices for the week ended 29 December 2023 Spreads/Margins (USD/MT) Latest Dec-23 Nov-23 4Q2023 3Q2023 2023 2022 2021 % MoM % QoQ Caprolactam-Benzene 915 883 802 780 722 769 753 1,029 10.0 8.0 2.1 Phenol/Acetone-Benz./Propylene 464 490 500 526 507 441 585 674 (1.9) 3.8 (24.7) Ethyl Acetate-Acetic Acid/ Ethanol 89 72 74 78 92 101 140 164 (2.5) (15.0) (28.2) 573 595 606 622 786 737 820 756 (1.8) (20.9) (10.1) 66 67 98 75 47 149 355 532 (32.0) 60.7 (58.1) PVC-EDC 415 425 441 450 579 527 601 692 (3.5) (22.2) (12.2) PVC-VCM 145 140 146 144 157 145 192 222 (4.2) (8.7) (24.8) Polystyrene-Styrene 180 203 213 209 152 199 290 333 (5.1) 37.2 (31.4) 1,412 1,403 1,387 1,423 1,279 1,484 1,512 1,500 1.1 11.3 (1.9) PP-Propylene Ethylene-Naphtha TDI-Toluene Source: Bloomberg, Industry Note: Latest prices for the week ended 29 December 2023 Currency Currency Latest Dec-23 Nov-23 4Q2023 3Q2023 2023 2022 2021 % MoM % QoQ % YoY Dollar Index 101.3 102.4 104.3 104.4 103.4 103.4 104.0 92.5 (1.8) 1.0 (0.6) USDINR 83.2 83.2 83.3 83.2 82.7 82.6 78.6 73.9 (0.2) 0.6 5.0 USDCNY 7.10 7.13 7.21 7.22 7.24 7.08 6.73 6.45 (1.1) (0.3) 5.2 EURINR 91.9 91.1 90.0 89.6 89.9 89.3 82.7 87.4 1.2 (0.3) 7.9 Source: Bloomberg, Industry Note: Latest prices for the week ended 29 December 2023 Centrum Institutional Research 5 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 Index China Key Chemicals Monthly Production Trend – Nov 23 China Key Chemicals Monthly production – November 2023 ('000 MT) Caustic Soda Chemical Fertilizers Ethylene Pesticide Phosphate Ore Soda Ash Sulfuric Acid Synthetic Detergents Synthetic Fiber Synthetic Rubber Nov-23 3,498 4,980 2,694 236 9,965 2,918 8,174 992 5,961 803 Oct-23 3,532 5,066 2,822 240 8,664 3,095 8,221 1,018 5,853 847 % Chg. MoM (1.0) (1.7) (4.5) (1.7) 15.0 (5.7) (0.6) (2.6) 1.8 (5.2) Nov-22 3,311 4,511 2,509 214 9,512 2,675 8,151 958 5,055 723 % Chg. YoY 5.6 10.4 7.4 10.3 4.8 9.1 0.3 3.5 17.9 11.1 Jan-Nov 23 37,355 52,636 28,642 2,338 95,328 29,379 87,053 10,083 60,548 8,334 Jan-Nov 22 36,039 50,454 26,291 2,300 96,881 26,577 86,234 9,456 57,226 7,258 % Chg. 3.7 4.3 8.9 1.7 (1.6) 10.5 0.9 6.6 5.8 14.8 Source: China Government, Centrum Broking China Key Chemicals Yearly Production ('000 MT) Caustic Soda Chemical Fertilizers Ethylene Pesticide Phosphate Ore Soda Ash Sulfuric Acid Synthetic Detergents Synthetic Fiber Synthetic Rubber 2017 34,622 66,387 18,354 3,636 148,436 27,157 91,723 13,964 47,645 6,022 2018 33,992 56,768 18,245 2,468 106,560 25,825 86,221 10,489 45,821 5,810 2019 34,880 57,260 20,499 2,047 95,785 28,036 86,853 10,110 56,252 6,727 2020 36,287 54,824 21,690 2,151 89,202 27,592 83,006 11,129 46,138 7,355 2021 38,420 54,896 28,045 2,509 102,718 29,092 92,238 10,339 61,717 8,122 2022 39,482 55,278 28,938 2,515 108,114 29,154 94,742 10,414 62,020 8,067 Source: China Government, Centrum Broking China Key Chemicals Yearly Production Growth % Chg. YoY Caustic Soda Chemical Fertilizers Ethylene Pesticide Phosphate Ore Soda Ash Sulfuric Acid Synthetic Detergents Synthetic Fiber Synthetic Rubber 2018 (1.8) (14.5) (0.6) (32.1) (28.2) (4.9) (6.0) (24.9) (3.8) (3.5) 2019 2.6 0.9 12.4 (17.1) (10.1) 8.6 0.7 (3.6) 22.8 15.8 2020 4.0 (4.3) 5.8 5.1 (6.9) (1.6) (4.4) 10.1 (18.0) 9.3 2021 5.9 0.1 29.3 16.6 15.2 5.4 11.1 (7.1) 33.8 10.4 2022 2.8 0.7 3.2 0.2 5.3 0.2 2.7 0.7 0.5 (0.7) Source: China Government, Centrum Broking Centrum Institutional Research 6 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 Index Global Chemicals Production and Outlook Global Chemical Sales Trend (EUR bn) Chemical sales China EU27 USA India ROW Total 2012 949 519 464 69 1,033 3,033 2013 1,058 510 451 66 1,012 3,097 2014 1,136 498 443 69 988 3,133 2015 1,343 494 470 86 1,007 3,399 2016 1,294 478 455 78 982 3,286 2017 1,414 521 463 90 1,052 3,541 2018 1,522 541 465 102 1,106 3,736 2019 1,559 546 456 101 1,134 3,795 2020 1,492 506 406 88 1,009 3,502 2021 1,949 618 493 99 1,269 4,428 2022 2,390 760 606 115 1,563 5,434 CAGR 2012-22(%) 9.7 3.9 2.7 5.2 4.2 6.0 Source: CEFIC EU27 Production Trend (Indexed, Quarterly) 110.0 EU27 Production Trend (Indexed, Yearly) 110.0 2015 - 100 (Index) 105.0 2015 - 100 (Index) Source: CEFIC 104.2 2023 2022 2021 2016 2015 89.7 97.6 98.2 2020 102.2 100.4 2019 2018 98.5 2014 100.7 98.3 2013 100.0 98.1 2012 2011 Source: CEFIC Source: CEFIC 78.0 82.5 2022 2021 2020 2019 2016 2023 74.8 77.1 83.4 2018 81.8 84.0 2017 81.7 2015 82.0 81.6 79.9 2013 2014 79.7 2012 81.5 2011 74.2 86.0 84.0 82.0 80.0 78.0 76.0 74.0 72.0 70.0 68.0 2009 Q1/09 Q4/09 Q3/10 Q2/11 Q1/12 Q4/12 Q3/13 Q2/14 Q1/15 Q4/15 Q3/16 Q2/17 Q1/18 Q4/18 Q3/19 Q2/20 Q1/21 Q4/21 Q3/22 Q2/23 86.0 84.0 82.0 80.0 78.0 76.0 74.0 72.0 70.0 68.0 81.1 EU27 Capacity Utilisation (Yearly) 2010 EU27 Capacity Utilisation (Quarterly) Source: CEFIC Chemicals Production Trend Across Countries Output Growth (%) South Korea Germany EU27 Japan Brazil USA India Russia China World 2010 2009 87.7 Q3/23 Q3/22 Q3/21 Q3/20 Q3/19 Q3/18 Q3/17 Q3/16 Q3/15 Q3/14 Q3/13 80.0 Q3/12 75.0 Q3/11 85.0 Q3/10 80.0 Q3/09 90.0 Q3/08 85.0 97.8 95.0 90.0 99.5 100.0 95.0 102.8 100.0 2017 105.0 2021 2021 2022 2023 (Jan-Sep) (3.1) (1.3) (2.2) (12.0) 0.0 (4.9) (5.4) 7.4 2.9 (0.5) 8.6 5.7 6.1 5.1 3.6 4.2 8.0 7.1 8.4 7.2 (9.9) (12.1) (6.3) (3.8) 1.1 2.2 4.2 (2.3) 6.4 1.5 (13.8) (13.7) (10.6) (7.3) (7.2) (2.7) 0.0 5.0 9.2 0.9 Global Chemicals Production Outlook Growth (%) 2022 2023P 2024F World Chemical Output 1.8 0.3 2.9 North America 2.1 (1.9) 0.5 Latin America 4.8 (3.6) 3.1 Europe 5.1 (6.6) 1.9 (3.7) 1.1 3.1 Africa and Middle East 3.1 0.9 2.3 Asia & Pacific 0.5 3.7 4.2 Former Soviet Union Source: ACC Source: CEFIC Centrum Institutional Research 7 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 Index Anti-dumping (ADD) Impositions/ Investigations Anti-dumping (ADD) Impositions/ Investigations Type of Investigation Countries Product South Korea, Singapore, and the Para-Tertiary Butyl Phenol (PTBP) United States of America China PR Meta Phenylene Diamine (MPDA) Natural mica-based pearl industrial China pigments excluding cosmetic grade China PR, Korea RP, Malaysia, Poly Vinyl Chloride Paste Resin Norway, Taiwan & Thailand Imposed/ In-Process Impacted Companies ADD imposed Vinati organics ADD continued Aarti Industries, Anupam Rasayan ADD imposed review Sudarshan Chemicals ADD Investigation initiation Chemplast Sanmar ADD investigation (Sep 23) China PR Isopropyl alcohol ADD investigation CVD Initiation (Mar23) Thailand Epichlorohydrin CVD / Anti-subsidy investigation ADD investigation (Sep 23) China PR Sulphur Black ADD investigation Atul Sunset review (Jun 23) China PR Investigation commenced Aarti Industries Imposition of CVD (May 23) Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand Meta Phenylene Diamine (MPDA) Saturated Fatty Alcohol of Carbon chain length C10 to C18 and their blends CVD imposed Galaxy surfactants, Aarti Surfactants Sulphur Black ADD not recommended Atul Ltd. Flexible Slabstock Polyol ADD Investigation initiation Manali Petrochemicals Monoisopropylamine ADD continued Alkyl amines Para-Tertiary Butyl Phenol (PTBP) ADD Investigation initiation Vinati Organics Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG) ADD not recommended RIL, India Glycols Sulphur Black ADD investigation Atul ADD investigation (Dec 23) Sunset Review (Oct 23) ADD Mid-term review (Oct 23) Initiation (Sep 23) Termination of ADD investigation China (Apr 23) Initiation (Mar23) China PR, Thailand Sunset review (Dec 22) Initiation (Dec22) China PR South Korea, Singapore, and the United States of America Termination of ADD investigation Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and USA (Oct 22) ADD investigation (Sep 22) China PR Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals, Deepak Phenolics Meghmani Finechem/ Epigral and DCM Shriram Imposition of ADD (Sep 22) China PR, Japan, Korea RP Toluene Di-isocyanate (TDI) ADD continued GNFC Sunset review (Sep 22) Pneumatic radial tyres ADD continued NOCIL Styrene Butadiene Rubber (SBR) ADD continued RIL Sunset review (Jun 22) China PR European Union, Korea RP, Thailand China PR, Japan, Korea RP Toluene Di-isocyanate (TDI) ADD continued GNFC Sunset review (Apr 22) China PR Polytetraflouroethylene (PTFE) ADD continued Gujarat Fluorochemicals, SRF Imposition of ADD (Mar 2022) China PR, European Union, Russia TDQ, PVI, CBS ADD recommended Sunset review (Mar 22) Bangladesh, Thailand Hydrogen Peroxide ADD continued NOCIL National Peroxide, Meghmani Finechem Melamine ADD recommended Sunset review (Jul 22) European Union, Japan, Qatar Imposition of ADD (Feb 22) and United Arab Emirates Termination of ADD investigation United Arab Emirates (UAE), (Jan 22) Russia ADD Revoked (Jan 22) China PR Withdrawal of application by Soda Ash domestic players R-134a/ 1,1,1,2- Tetrafluoroethane ADD Revoked Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) Blends, ADD imposed except 407 and 410 Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) ADD imposed component R-32 GSFC GHCL, DCW SRF Imposition of ADD (Dec 21) China PR Imposition of ADD (Dec 21) China PR ADD Investigation (Dec 21) Japan, Iran, Qatar and Oman Caustic Soda Sunset review (Oct 21) China PR PVC Flex Films Grasim, DCM Shriram, Meghmani Finechem, GACL, DCW, Punjab Alkalies and Andhra Sugars Withdrawal of ADD recommended SRF ADD Revoked (Oct 21) Polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) ADD Revoked Gujarat Fluorochemicals, SRF Phenol ADD Revoked Deepak Nitrite, HOCL Imposition of ADD (Oct 21) Russia and Korea RP European Union, Singapore and Korea RP China PR Aceto Acetyl derivative - Arylides ADD imposed Laxmi Organics Sunset review (Oct 21) China PR Tetrafluoroethane/ R-134a ADD recommended SRF Final Finding (Sep 21) EU, Korea RP, Russia and Thailand Caprolactam Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) China PR Component R-32 ADD recommended GSFC ADD recommended SRF ADD Revoked (Oct 21) Final Finding (Sep 21) SRF and Gujarat Fluorochemical SRF ADD recommended Initiation (Sep 21) China PR Final Finding (Sep 21) EU, China PR Sunset review (Sep 21) Bangladesh and Thailand Sunset review (Sep 21) Thailand Sunset review (Sep 21) China PR, Japan and Korea RP Final Finding (Jan 21) China Final Finding (Jan 21) China Final Finding (Jan 21) Turkey Investigation commenced for Gujarat Fluorochemical, SRF continuation of imposition of ADD Rubber Chemicals PX-13 and MOR ADD imposed National Peroxide and Chlor-Alkali Hydrogen Peroxide Investigation commenced Players Investigation commenced for Flexible Slabstock Polyol Manali Petrochemicals continuation of imposition of ADD Toluene Di-isocyanate (TDI) Investigation commenced GNFC Gujarat Fluorochemicals, TGV Methylene Chloride Continuation of ADD SRAAC, Gujarat Alkalies, Meghmani Positive for GNFC, Negative for importers (users) such as NOCIL, Aniline ADD Imposed Aarti Industries, Bodal, Bhageria Chemicals Soda Ash ADD Imposed GHCL, Tata Chemical, DCW Final Finding (Jan 21) China PR, Saudi Arabia Dimethyl Formamide (DMF) ADD Imposed Balaji Amines Sunset Review (Jan 21) Russia Phthalic Anhydride ADD Imposed IG Petrochem., Thirumalai Chemicals Polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) Source: India Government Centrum Institutional Research 8 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 Index Key RMs and Products for Chemical Companies Key RMs and Products for Chemical Companies Chemical Raw Material Product Acetic Acid Jubilant Ingrevia, Laxmi Organics Ashok Alco-Chem ,GNFC Acetone Acrylic Acid Deepak Nitrite, HOCL Rossari Biotech Acrylonitrile Reliance Industries ABS Caprolactam Bhansali Engineering , Styrenix Performance Materials SRF Caustic Soda EDC DCM Shriram, DCW, Epigral , GACL, Grasim, TGV SRAAC Chemplast Sanmar Ethyl Acetate Fluorspar GSFC Ashok Alco-Chem , GNFC, Jubilant Ingrevia, Laxmi Organics Gujarat Fluorochemicals, Navin Fluorine, SRF MDI BASF Methanol Alkyl Amines, Balaji Amines Palm Kernel Oil (PKO) Galaxy Surfactants (Lauryl Alcohol derivative of PKO) Phenol Clean Science, Vinati Organics Phthalic Anhydride GNFC Deepak Nitrite, HOCL Soda Ash IG Petrochemicals, Thirumalai Chemicals Chemplast Sanmar, DCM Shriram, DCW, Reliance Industries DCW, GHCL, Tata Chemicals TDI GNFC PVC VCM Chemplast Sanmar Spreads/ Margins (USD/MT) Caprolactam-Benzene GSFC Phenol/Acetone-Benz./Propylene Deepak Nitrite, HOCL Ethyl Acetate-Acetic Acid/ Ethanol Ashok Alco-Chem , GNFC, Jubilant Ingrevia, Laxmi Organics PVC-EDC Chemplast Sanmar PVC-VCM Chemplast Sanmar TDI-Toluene GNFC Source: Company Centrum Institutional Research 9 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 Index Rabi Sowing Data (till end-December) Sowing down ~3%, Wheat sowing area down 1%, pulses down ~7% Rabi - Crop (Lakh ha.) As on 29/12/2023 Wheat Rice Gram Lentil Total pulses Jowar Maize Total coarse cereals Oilseeds Total Area sown 2023-24 2022-23 320.5 324.6 14.4 16.6 97.1 105.8 18.7 18.0 142.5 153.2 21.0 21.2 17.5 17.5 47.3 46.6 105.0 105.2 629.6 646.2 Abs. YoY inc./(dec.) % Chg. YoY 22-23 (4.0) (2.2) (8.8) 0.7 (10.7) (0.2) 0.0 0.6 (0.2) (16.5) (1.2) (13.3) (8.3) 3.7 (7.0) (0.7) 0.1 1.4 (0.2) (2.6) Area sown 2021-22 313.8 13.7 105.2 16.6 150.1 23.2 14.6 44.9 95.0 617.4 % Chg. YoY 21-22 3.4 20.9 0.6 8.5 2.1 (8.7) 20.3 4.0 10.7 4.7 Area sown 22/12/2023 308.7 12.7 94.0 18.0 137.1 20.6 16.7 46.0 102.4 606.9 % Chg. WoW 3.8 13.3 3.2 4.0 3.9 2.0 4.8 2.8 2.5 3.8 Source: Centrum Broking, Government Data Centrum Institutional Research 10 500 400 300 200 420 Source: Bloomberg 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 993 Source: Bloomberg 3,200 2,000 1,600 1,936 Source: Bloomberg Centrum Institutional Research Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 600 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 700 1,200 800 800 600 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Chemical Pulse Index 1,000 Caustic Soda SEA (USD/ MT) 1,600 900 1,400 800 1,200 China Acetone (USD/ MT) China Caprolactam (USD/MT) 2,800 1,600 2,400 1,400 3 January 2024 Chemical Price Trends China Acetic Acid (USD/MT) 1,000 800 600 400 200 422 Source: Bloomberg 2,900 China Acrylonitrile (USD/MT) 2,600 2,300 2,000 1,700 1,400 1,380 1,100 800 Source: Bloomberg China Ethyl Acetate (USD/MT) 1,800 1,200 1,000 936 Source: Bloomberg 11 1,800 1,600 600 1,400 1,200 800 1,077 600 Source: Bloomberg 7,000 China TDI (USD/ MT) 6,000 2,900 5,000 4,000 2,400 3,000 2,352 2,000 1,000 Source: Bloomberg Centrum Institutional Research Jul-23 700 400 Oct-23 China Phenol (USD/ MT) Jan-23 1,000 Index Apr-23 2,000 Oct-22 Source: Bloomberg Jul-22 300 Jan-22 1,000 Apr-22 350 Jul-21 2,000 Oct-21 400 Apr-21 3,000 Jan-21 4,000 450 Jul-20 China Fluorspar (USD/MT) Oct-20 486 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 500 Apr-20 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 550 Jan-20 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 600 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 …continued China MDI (USD/MT) 6,000 5,000 2,260 0 Source: Bloomberg China Soda Ash (USD/ MT) 500 347 300 200 100 Source: Bloomberg Malaysia/ Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil Rotterdam (USD/ MT) 1,900 1,400 900 950 400 Source: Bloomberg 12 8,400 6,400 4,400 2,400 3,489 400 Source: Bloomberg 4,900 4,400 3,900 3,400 2,900 2,400 1,900 1,400 900 400 2,194 Source: Bloomberg 4,400 3,400 2,400 1,400 2,219 400 Source: Bloomberg Centrum Institutional Research Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 10,400 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 12,400 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Chemical Pulse Index 3 January 2024 China Chemical Prices China Bromine (USD/ MT) China PVC (USD/ MT) 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 China Polycarbonate (USD/ MT) China MDI (USD/ MT) 7,400 1,600 6,400 1,400 5,400 1,200 797 Source: Bloomberg China Titanium Dioxide (TiO2) (USD/ MT) 3,900 3,400 2,900 2,400 2,310 1,900 1,400 900 400 Source: Bloomberg China Acetic Acid (USD/ MT) 1,000 800 600 400 200 452 0 Source: Bloomberg 13 200 Source: Bloomberg 1,300 900 700 500 300 100 Source: Bloomberg 1,000 850 800 600 Source: Bloomberg Centrum Institutional Research Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 600 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 1,000 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Chemical Pulse Index 2,200 Benzene Rotterdam (USD/ MT) 2,200 1,800 1,800 1,400 1,400 Naphtha Japan (USD/ MT) 1,400 Ethylene Korea (USD/ MT) 1,800 1,200 1,600 400 600 200 400 3 January 2024 Petrochemical Price Trends Toluene Rotterdam (USD/ MT) 905 1,000 600 940 200 Source: Bloomberg Ethylene NWE (USD/ MT) 1,100 1,800 1,400 669 1,000 600 735 200 Source: Bloomberg Propylene NWE (USD/ MT) 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 876 Source: Bloomberg 14 900 815 Source: Bloomberg 3,100 2,700 1,900 1,834 1,500 1,100 Source: Bloomberg 2,500 2,300 1,900 1,700 1,449 1,300 1,100 Source: Bloomberg Centrum Institutional Research Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 1,300 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 1,500 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Chemical Pulse Index Propylene Korea (USD/ MT) 700 1,400 500 1,000 LDPE Europe (USD/ MT) PP Europe (USD/ MT) 3 January 2024 …continued 2,600 HDPE Europe (USD/ MT) 1,100 2,200 1,800 1,548 Source: Bloomberg 2,600 LLDPE Europe (USD/ MT) 2,300 2,200 1,800 1,647 1,400 1,000 Source: Bloomberg 1,150 EDC SEA (USD/ MT) 2,100 950 750 1,500 550 350 355 150 Source: Bloomberg 15 1,000 600 625 200 Source: Bloomberg 1,100 900 700 535 500 300 1,000 1,055 Source: Bloomberg Centrum Institutional Research Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 1,400 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 1,800 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Chemical Pulse Index VCM SEA (USD/ MT) MEG SEA (USD/ MT) PX Rotterdam (USD/ MT) 2,200 3,000 1,800 2,600 1,400 2,200 600 1,400 200 1,000 3 January 2024 …continued 2,000 PVC SEA (USD/ MT) 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 770 Source: Bloomberg 1,300 PTA SEA (USD/ MT) 1,100 900 700 780 500 300 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ABS SEA (USD/ MT) 1,800 1,280 Source: Bloomberg 16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 900 1,063 700 500 Source: Bloomberg Centrum Institutional Research Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Chemical Pulse Index 1,500 Phthalic Anhydride China (USD/ MT) 3,300 1,300 2,800 1,100 2,300 3 January 2024 …continued ACN SEA (USD/ MT) 1,800 1,300 800 1,240 Source: Bloomberg 3,000 Vinyl Acetate Monomer China (USD/ MT) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 811 500 0 Source: Bloomberg 17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 10.0 150.0 130.0 110.0 90.0 70.0 50.0 77.6 30.0 Source: Bloomberg 60.0 Centrum Institutional Research Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-… Jul-18 Oct-… Jan-19 Apr-… Jul-19 Oct-… Jan-20 Apr-… Jul-20 Oct-… Jan-21 Apr-… Jul-21 Oct-… Jan-22 Apr-… Jul-22 Oct-… Jan-23 Apr-… Jul-23 Oct-… Chemical Pulse Index Brent (USD/ bbl) 3 January 2024 Crude Prices WTI (USD/ bbl) 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 71.65 40.0 20.0 0.0 Source: Bloomberg Dubai-Oman (USD/ bbl) 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 76.42 40.0 20.0 Source: Bloomberg 18 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Source: Bloomberg 1,300 1,100 573 900 700 500 300 Source: Bloomberg 700 415 Source: Bloomberg 150 Centrum Institutional Research Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 915 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 1,000 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Chemical Pulse Index 3 January 2024 Chemicals and Petrochemicals Spreads/Margins 2,000 Caprolactam-Benzene (USD/ MT) 1,400 Phenol/Acetone-Benzene/Propylene(USD/ MT) 1,800 1,200 1,600 1,000 1,400 800 1,200 600 800 200 600 0 PP-Propylene (USD/ MT) 1,000 PVC-EDC (USD/ MT) 400 900 350 800 300 600 200 500 150 400 100 300 50 464 400 Source: Bloomberg 800 Ethylene-Naphtha (USD/ MT) 700 600 500 400 300 66 200 100 0 Source: Bloomberg PVC-VCM (USD/ MT) 250 145 Source: Bloomberg 350 ETAC- Acetic Acid/ Ethanol 300 250 200 89 100 50 0 Source: Bloomberg 19 101.33 Source: Bloomberg 6.0 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.4 7.6 Source: Bloomberg Centrum Institutional Research Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 115 113 110 108 105 103 100 98 95 93 90 88 85 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Chemical Pulse Index Dollar Index USDCNY 3 January 2024 Currency Movement USDINR 62.0 67.0 72.0 77.0 82.0 83.21 87.0 Source: Bloomberg 65.0 EURINR 6.4 70.0 75.0 7.10 80.0 7.2 85.0 91.94 90.0 95.0 Source: Bloomberg 20 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 Index Key Chemical prices India (imported) vs Benchmark/ China Caustic Soda Acetic Acid 1,520.0 800.0 1,020.0 600.0 520.0 400.0 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 20.0 200.0 SE Asia caustic soda China Acetic Acid India caustic soda Source: Bloomberg, Ministry of Commerce and Industry India India Acetic Acid Source: Bloomberg, Ministry of Commerce and Industry India Phenol Soda Ash 2,020.0 620.0 520.0 1,520.0 420.0 320.0 1,020.0 220.0 520.0 120.0 India Phenol Source: Bloomberg, Ministry of Commerce and Industry India Centrum Institutional Research Soda Ash China Dec-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-22 Sep-22 Mar-22 Dec-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-20 Sep-20 Mar-20 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 China Phenol Dec-19 20.0 20.0 Soda Ash India Source: Bloomberg, Ministry of Commerce and Industry India 21 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 Index China Key Chemicals Monthly Production Trend Phosphate Ore ('000MT) 14000 2018 2021 Sulfuric Acid ('000MT) 2019 2022 12000 2020 2023 9,965 9000 2018 2021 2019 2022 2020 2023 8,174 8000 10000 7000 8000 6000 6000 4000 5000 2000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: China Government, *data till Nov 2023 Source: China Government, *data till Nov 2023 Caustic Soda ('000MT) 2018 2021 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Soda Ash ('000MT) 2019 2022 3700 2020 2023 3,498 2018 2021 2020 2023 3200 3500 3000 3300 2800 3100 2600 2900 2400 2700 2200 2500 2019 2022 2,918 2000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: China Government, *data till Nov 2023 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: China Government, *data till Nov 2023 Ethylene ('000MT) 2018 2021 3000 Chemical Fertilizers ('000MT) 2019 2022 2020 2023 2,694 2018 2021 2019 2022 2020 2023 5500 4,980 2500 5000 2000 4500 1500 4000 1000 3500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: China Government, *data till Nov 2023 Centrum Institutional Research Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: China Government, *data till Nov 2023 22 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 Index …continued Pesticides ('000MT) Synthetic Rubber ('000MT) 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2018 2021 2019 2022 900 300 2020 2023 803 800 250 236 700 600 200 500 150 400 300 100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: China Government, *data till Nov 2023 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: China Government, *data till Nov 2023 Syn. Detergents ('000MT) Syn. Fibre ('000MT) 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1300 2018 2021 2019 2022 2020 2023 7100 5,961 992 1100 6100 5100 900 4100 700 3100 2100 500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Source: China Government, *data till Nov 2023 Centrum Institutional Research Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: China Government, *data till Nov 2023 23 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 Index India Imports – October 2023 Acetic Acid (MT) FY20 FY21 Caustic Soda (MT) FY22 FY23 FY24 1,40,000 1,20,000 FY20 50,000 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 40,000 99,546 1,00,000 30,000 20,276 80,000 20,000 60,000 10,000 40,000 20,000 0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Phenol (MT) FY20 FY21 Soda Ash (MT) FY22 FY23 FY24 FY20 50,000 1,20,000 40,000 1,00,000 30,000 80,000 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 1,03,028 60,000 20,000 18,039 40,000 10,000 20,000 0 0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Epichlorohydrin (MT) FY20 FY21 PTFE (MT) FY22 FY23 FY24 10,000 600 FY20 FY21 FY22 500 8,000 FY23 FY24 472 400 6,000 300 4,000 5,700 200 100 2,000 0 0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Centrum Institutional Research Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India 24 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 Index Aniline (MT) 20,000 FY20 FY21 Fluorspar (MT) FY22 FY23 FY24 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 60,000 50,000 15,000 40,000 10,795 10,000 30,000 20,000 5,000 10,000 8,399 0 0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India VAM (MT) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 30,000 27,555 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Centrum Institutional Research 25 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 Index India Organic Chemicals Imports/Exports – October 2023 Imports (MT) 18,00,000 FY20 FY23 Exports (MT) FY21 FY24 FY22 12,00,000 16,89,805 16,00,000 10,00,000 14,00,000 8,00,000 12,00,000 6,00,000 10,00,000 4,00,000 8,00,000 2,00,000 FY21 FY24 FY22 3,59,323 0 6,00,000 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Imports (USD mn) 3,500 FY20 FY23 Exports (USD mn) FY20 FY21 FY23 FY24 FY22 2,500 FY20 FY23 FY21 FY24 FY22 2,000 3,000 2,241 2,500 1,500 1,472 2,000 1,000 1,500 500 1,000 0 500 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Import Realisation (USD/Kg) 2.4 FY20 FY23 FY21 FY24 Export Realisation (USD/Kg) FY22 2.2 6.0 FY20 FY22 FY24 FY21 FY23 5.0 2.0 4.1 4.0 1.8 1.6 3.0 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 2.0 1.0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Centrum Institutional Research Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India 26 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 Index India Inorganic Chemicals Imports/Exports – October 2023 Imports (MT) FY20 Exports (MT) FY21 FY22 FY20 FY21 FY22 7,00,000 16,00,000 6,00,000 14,00,000 11,95,449 5,00,000 12,00,000 4,00,000 3,72,933 3,00,000 10,00,000 2,00,000 8,00,000 1,00,000 0 6,00,000 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Imports (USD mn) FY20 Exports (USD mn) FY21 FY22 FY20 2,000 400 1,500 300 1,000 FY21 FY22 258 200 779 500 100 0 0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Import Realisation (USD/Kg) FY20 FY21 Export Realisation (USD/Kg) FY22 FY20 FY21 FY22 1.0 1.4 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Centrum Institutional Research Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India 27 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 Index India Agrochemicals Imports/Exports – October 2023 Imports (MT) FY20 FY21 Exports (MT) FY22 FY23 FY20 FY24 25,000 80,006 20,000 60,006 15,000 40,006 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 60,494 11,262 10,000 20,006 5,000 6 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Imports (USD mn) FY20 FY21 Exports (USD mn) FY22 FY23 FY20 FY24 350 606 300 506 250 FY21 FY22 406 200 FY23 FY24 347 306 150 83 100 206 50 106 0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India 6 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Import average realization (USD/ kg) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 Export average realization (USD/ kg) FY24 26 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 10.0 9.0 21 8.0 16 7.0 6.0 11 7.4 6 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 5.7 5.0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Centrum Institutional Research 28 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 Index Freight Rate and Index Shanghai Containerized Freight Index Shanghai Containerized Freight Index 4-Dec-20 13-Jan-21 22-Feb-21 3-Apr-21 13-May-21 22-Jun-21 1-Aug-21 10-Sep-21 20-Oct-21 29-Nov-21 8-Jan-22 17-Feb-22 29-Mar-22 8-May-22 17-Jun-22 27-Jul-22 5-Sep-22 15-Oct-22 24-Nov-22 3-Jan-23 12-Feb-23 24-Mar-23 3-May-23 12-Jun-23 22-Jul-23 31-Aug-23 10-Oct-23 19-Nov-23 29-Dec-23 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange Container Availability Index (Shanghai 40TEU) 2019 1.0 2020 2021 2022 2023 Shanghai Container Availability Index (CAx, Weekly) - 40TEU 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 31-Dec 3-Dec 17-Dec 19-Nov 5-Nov 8-Oct 22-Oct 24-Sep 10-Sep 27-Aug 13-Aug 30-Jul 2-Jul 16-Jul 4-Jun 18-Jun 7-May 21-May 23-Apr 9-Apr 26-Mar 26-Feb 12-Mar 29-Jan 12-Feb 15-Jan 1-Jan 0.0 Source: Container Exchange Note: A CAx value of 0.5 means that the same amount of containers leave and enter a port in the same week. CAx values of > 0.5 means that more containers enter and CAx values of < 0.5 means more containers leave a specific port. At very low CAx values the safety stock at a specific port is nearly empty. As a result, the CAx values turn positive again as only the containers that enter a port can leave again. At very high equipment levels, CAx values are likely to decrease again as a port has to reduce its safety stock first before they can accept new incoming containers. Low CAx values over a time period of multiple weeks indicate a deficit of containers, high values over a time period of multiple weeks indicate a surplus of equipment at a specific port. World container index, Freight rates Composite Index Shanghai to Rotterdam 20,000 Shanghai to Los Angeles Shanghai to New York Accelerated decline 15,000 10,000 5,000 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 0 Source: Bloomberg Centrum Institutional Research 29 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 Index Chemical, Petrochemical, and Crude Prices – Monthly Chemicals Chemicals (USD/MT) Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Caustic Soda SEA 654 638 598 460 431 429 403 375 391 China Acetic Acid 428 425 446 450 439 420 387 416 481 China Acetone 857 753 812 898 949 874 750 839 951 China Acrylic Acid 1,061 1,061 1,039 1,233 1,143 1,044 954 873 997 China Acrylonitrile 1,358 1,438 1,565 1,504 1,376 1,314 1,070 1,105 China Caprolactam 1,622 1,787 1,841 1,794 1,861 1,746 1,680 1,705 China Ethanol 1,097 1,152 1,128 1,118 966 949 927 China Ethyl Acetate 973 993 977 952 946 933 China Fluorspar 506 485 450 440 449 China Methanol 342 361 364 360 351 China Phenol 1,138 1,115 1,183 1,175 China Phthalic Anhydride 1,138 1,154 1,194 335 347 357 China TDI 2,544 2,832 China VAM 1,089 Malaysia/ Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil 1,070 MDI 2,229 China Soda Ash 444 480 423 418 644 510 428 447 1,029 1,029 954 971 1,042 1,042 1,037 1,037 1,168 1,304 1,334 1,387 1,380 1,776 1,851 1,743 1,800 1,857 1,001 1,028 1,049 1,062 1,061 1,073 887 918 953 1,053 988 918 934 469 443 438 432 465 518 513 489 321 277 309 328 328 322 319 334 1,171 1,084 940 1,037 1,131 1,291 1,209 1,142 1,104 1,221 1,184 1,105 1,035 1,093 1,159 1,167 1,096 1,005 1,031 356 346 306 241 244 282 369 346 285 347 2,937 2,613 2,748 2,611 2,398 2,481 2,569 2,444 2,487 2,329 2,335 1,119 1,112 1,127 929 919 861 804 911 1,042 1,042 865 811 1,033 1,033 1,099 970 979 941 939 1,028 946 905 961 950 2,142 3,068 2,320 2,302 2,147 2,089 2,232 2,250 2,330 2,260 2,260 2,260 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Source: Bloomberg, Industry China chemical prices China chemical prices (USD/MT) Bromine Dec-22 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 6,502 6,224 5,625 3,920 3,758 3,351 2,522 2,712 3,354 3,320 3,305 3,443 877 917 916 891 869 807 769 797 846 847 805 805 796 Polycarbonate 2,530 2,570 2,507 2,344 2,273 2,200 2,062 2,146 2,278 2,334 2,271 2,219 2,193 Titanium Dioxide (TiO2) 2,289 2,354 2,371 2,484 2,463 2,390 2,242 2,188 2,255 2,341 2,369 2,379 2,316 MDI 3,080 2,211 2,406 2,384 2,256 2,192 2,322 2,280 2,412 2,309 2,184 2,219 2,221 448 440 477 472 473 465 416 437 521 660 563 441 469 PVC Acetic Acid 3,521 Source: Bloomberg, Industry Centrum Institutional Research 30 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 Index Petrochemicals Petrochemicals (USD/MT) Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Benzene Rotterdam 831 939 1,006 974 1,078 958 901 876 920 1,099 1,040 912 889 Benzene Korea 819 923 940 936 998 879 775 829 911 996 921 887 876 Benzene China 932 999 1,021 1,054 1,075 968 875 939 1,071 1,156 1,086 1,062 975 Toluene Rotterdam 943 1,041 1,059 1,068 1,141 1,040 1,090 1,166 1,272 1,219 1,006 955 933 Naphtha Japan 647 691 733 687 673 589 539 597 660 710 662 646 667 Ethylene NWE 847 904 968 957 985 811 706 633 684 791 721 769 734 Ethylene Korea 851 769 896 927 910 845 733 745 807 848 875 856 846 Propylene NWE 904 983 984 953 1,006 777 574 574 732 710 847 913 861 Propylene Korea 865 869 953 907 906 835 719 739 781 816 819 817 815 Butadiene Korea 789 898 1,140 1,150 1,060 829 608 665 787 1,010 1,033 991 930 Styrene Korea 1,003 1,131 1,108 1,067 1,099 995 909 973 1,040 1,131 1,060 1,046 1,023 HDPE Europe 1,810 1,770 1,709 1,713 1,746 1,655 1,554 1,531 1,486 1,498 1,552 1,593 1,545 LDPE Europe 2,193 2,167 2,095 2,116 2,143 2,046 1,875 1,841 1,791 1,803 1,862 1,900 1,833 LLDPE Europe 1,833 1,789 1,733 1,787 1,839 1,764 1,663 1,641 1,595 1,603 1,650 1,694 1,641 PP Europe 1,740 1,670 1,646 1,677 1,716 1,650 1,538 1,489 1,442 1,443 1,511 1,528 1,456 Polystyrene SEA 1,242 1,258 1,335 1,288 1,305 1,254 1,178 1,150 1,200 1,250 1,270 1,268 1,225 EDC SEA 241 285 295 315 325 347 363 274 265 298 318 329 355 VCM SEA 648 748 810 767 695 681 640 658 716 726 658 631 640 PVC SEA 834 890 910 898 860 830 785 800 892 880 803 782 780 MEG SEA 491 533 530 518 521 504 471 486 478 491 479 492 516 PTA SEA 785 799 800 814 883 782 780 810 803 831 781 779 766 OX China 1,121 1,089 1,116 1,196 1,238 1,145 1,101 1,126 1,197 1,212 1,156 1,056 1,031 PX Rotterdam 1,140 1,221 1,220 1,249 1,336 1,139 1,098 1,139 1,189 1,228 1,189 1,081 1,039 ABS SEA 1,364 1,393 1,448 1,432 1,445 1,364 1,258 1,290 1,318 1,375 1,380 1,332 1,280 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Source: Bloomberg, Industry Crude Crude (USD/bbl) Dec-22 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Brent 82 84 82 79 84 76 75 81 87 95 91 83 78 WTI 77 79 76 74 79 71 70 77 83 90 86 77 72 Dubai-Oman 77 81 82 78 83 74 75 82 87 94 90 82 77 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Source: Bloomberg, Industry Spreads/ Margins Spreads/ Margins (USD/MT) Dec-22 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Caprolactam-Benzene 690 788 820 740 786 778 805 766 706 696 656 738 883 Phenol/Acetone-Benz./Propylene 482 302 348 418 390 400 333 425 491 603 588 507 490 Ethyl Acetate-Acetic Acid/ Ethanol 111 106 87 65 145 154 142 115 91 70 89 75 72 PP-Propylene 835 688 662 724 710 873 965 915 710 734 664 615 595 Ethylene-Naphtha 200 213 235 270 312 222 167 35 24 82 60 123 67 PVC-EDC 593 605 615 583 535 483 423 526 627 583 485 453 425 PVC-VCM 186 143 100 131 165 149 145 143 176 154 145 151 140 Polystyrene-Styrene TDI-Toluene 239 126 228 221 206 259 269 178 160 119 210 222 203 1,601 1,790 1,878 1,545 1,607 1,571 1,308 1,315 1,297 1,244 1,481 1,374 1,403 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Source: Bloomberg, Industry Currency Currency Dollar Index Dec-22 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 104.4 102.5 103.9 103.7 101.8 103.1 102.9 101.2 103.3 105.5 106.4 104.3 102.4 USDINR 82.4 81.7 82.5 82.2 81.9 82.3 82.1 82.3 82.8 83.0 83.2 83.3 83.2 USDCNY 6.97 6.78 6.86 6.89 6.89 7.01 7.17 7.18 7.25 7.31 7.31 7.21 7.13 EURINR 87.3 87.9 88.4 87.9 89.9 89.3 89.1 90.9 90.2 88.5 87.9 90.0 91.1 Source: Bloomberg, Industry Centrum Institutional Research 31 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 Index Chemical, Petrochemical, and Crude Prices – Quarterly Chemicals Chemicals (USD/MT) 4QCY2021 1QCY2022 2QCY2022 3QCY2022 4QCY2022 1QCY2023 2QCY2023 3QCY2023 4QCY2023 Caustic Soda SEA 696 701 776 677 693 565 421 403 440 China Acetic Acid 1,059 799 677 484 448 440 416 514 461 930 918 885 746 851 821 857 940 985 China Acrylic Acid 2,749 2,269 2,103 1,558 1,126 1,111 1,047 971 1,039 China Acrylonitrile 2,365 1,788 1,707 1,370 1,458 1,502 1,253 1,192 1,367 China Caprolactam 2,271 2,194 2,163 1,827 1,673 1,807 1,762 1,778 1,800 China Ethanol 1,097 1,143 1,184 1,085 1,064 1,133 947 1,026 1,065 China Ethyl Acetate 1,511 1,313 1,234 1,019 961 974 922 975 946 China Fluorspar 443 436 416 432 474 458 454 445 507 China Methanol 458 414 402 358 363 362 316 322 325 China Phenol 1,490 1,733 1,592 1,399 1,288 1,158 1,065 1,153 1,151 China Phthalic Anhydride 1,142 1,274 1,216 1,222 1,254 1,190 1,108 1,140 1,044 504 335 369 354 329 353 298 299 326 China TDI 2,287 2,969 2,627 2,547 2,792 2,794 2,586 2,504 2,384 China VAM 2,630 2,069 2,352 1,657 1,174 1,135 994 875 906 Malaysia/ Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil 1,973 2,446 1,815 1,278 1,060 1,056 940 971 939 MDI 3,284 3,211 2,810 2,420 2,156 2,510 2,179 2,272 2,260 China Acetone China Soda Ash Source: Bloomberg, Industry (Note: # YTD average) China Chemical Prices Chemicals (USD/MT) Bromine 4QCY2021 1QCY2022 2QCY2022 3QCY2022 4QCY2022 1QCY2023 2QCY2023 3QCY2023 4QCY2023 10,064 8,960 8,579 7,532 6,590 5,178 3,210 3,129 PVC 1,570 1,367 1,278 947 856 907 815 830 3,434 801 Polycarbonate 3,712 3,519 3,173 2,513 2,536 2,469 2,178 2,253 2,224 Titanium Dioxide (TiO2) 3,264 3,290 3,136 2,588 2,244 2,403 2,365 2,262 2,345 MDI 3,301 3,301 3,301 3,301 3,228 2,330 2,256 2,334 2,208 Acetic Acid 1,095 836 719 489 469 463 452 539 495 Source: Bloomberg, Industry (Note: # YTD average) Centrum Institutional Research 32 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 Index Petrochemicals Petrochemicals (USD/MT) Benzene Rotterdam 4QCY2021 1QCY2022 2QCY2022 3QCY2022 4QCY2022 1QCY2023 2QCY2023 3QCY2023 4QCY2023 1,004 1,129 1,453 991 833 973 979 965 Benzene Korea 947 1,076 1,245 973 841 933 884 912 893 Benzene China 1,142 1,257 1,378 1,212 998 1,025 973 1,055 1,028 Toluene Rotterdam 838 1,042 1,491 1,257 1,096 1,056 1,090 1,219 961 Naphtha Japan 749 873 885 709 681 704 600 656 661 Ethylene NWE 1,214 1,399 1,422 917 832 943 834 703 736 Ethylene Korea 1,074 1,131 1,145 879 849 864 829 800 858 Propylene NWE 1,371 1,517 1,467 670 856 973 785 672 865 Propylene Korea 1,003 1,140 1,103 890 855 909 820 779 817 Butadiene Korea 943 735 1,063 1,465 1,064 778 1,063 832 821 975 Styrene Korea 1,161 1,258 1,385 1,162 1,009 1,102 1,001 1,048 1,039 HDPE Europe 2,095 2,110 2,290 1,884 1,748 1,731 1,652 1,505 1,556 LDPE Europe 2,598 2,596 2,734 2,239 2,117 2,126 2,021 1,812 1,855 LLDPE Europe 2,184 2,186 2,385 1,898 1,766 1,769 1,755 1,613 1,654 PP Europe 2,168 2,158 2,203 1,746 1,685 1,664 1,635 1,458 1,487 Polystyrene SEA 1,526 1,584 1,644 1,445 1,297 1,294 1,246 1,200 1,248 EDC SEA 959 837 673 403 271 298 345 279 338 VCM SEA 1,380 1,218 1,169 772 658 775 672 700 644 PVC SEA 1,622 1,396 1,378 985 827 899 825 857 788 MEG SEA 716 692 633 527 480 527 499 485 499 PTA SEA 742 857 987 874 825 804 815 815 774 1,023 1,182 1,266 1,197 1,216 1,134 1,161 1,178 1,077 937 1,165 1,476 1,245 1,180 1,230 1,191 1,185 1,097 2,298 1,983 1,966 1,585 1,417 1,424 1,356 1,328 1,323 OX China PX Rotterdam ABS SEA Source: Bloomberg, Industry Crude Crude (USD/bbl) 4QCY2021 1QCY2022 2QCY2022 3QCY2022 4QCY2022 1QCY2023 2QCY2023 3QCY2023 4QCY2023 Brent 78.7 99.6 113.7 98.9 89 82 78 87 84 WTI 77.4 95.0 109.6 91.5 83 76 74 83 78 Dubai-Oman 77.8 96.3 109.2 97.1 85 80 77 87 83 Source: Bloomberg, Industry Spreads/ Margins Spreads/ Margins (USD/MT) Caprolactam-Benzene 4QCY2021 1QCY2022 2QCY2022 3QCY2022 4QCY2022 1QCY2023 2QCY2023 3QCY2023 4QCY2023 1,139 937 785 615 675 783 790 722 780 Phenol/Acetone-Benz./Propylene 699 746 451 526 615 356 374 507 526 Ethyl Acetate-Acetic Acid/ Ethanol 208 175 158 126 103 86 147 92 78 PP-Propylene 798 641 736 1,076 828 691 849 786 622 Ethylene-Naphtha 465 525 537 208 151 239 234 47 75 PVC-EDC 663 559 706 582 556 601 480 579 450 PVC-VCM 242 178 210 213 169 125 153 157 144 Polystyrene-Styrene TDI-Toluene 366 326 260 283 288 192 245 152 209 1,451 1,927 1,136 1,290 1,696 1,738 1,495 1,285 1,423 Source: Bloomberg, Industry Currency Currency 4QCY2021 1QCY2022 2QCY2022 3QCY2022 4QCY2022 1QCY2023 2QCY2023 3QCY2023 4QCY2023 Dollar Index 95.1 96.9 102.8 108.3 108.0 103.4 102.6 103.4 104.4 USDINR 74.9 75.1 77.3 79.8 82.2 82.14 82.11 82.72 83.24 USDCNY 6.39 6.35 6.62 6.85 7.11 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.2 EURINR 85.7 84.4 82.2 80.4 83.8 88 89 90 90 Source: Bloomberg, Industry Centrum Institutional Research 33 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 Index Chemical, Petrochemical, and Crude Prices –Yearly Chemicals Chemicals (USD/MT) CY2017 CY2018 CY2019 CY2020 CY2021 CY2022 CY2023 Dec-23 Caustic Soda SEA 539 503 357 282 425 712 457 418 China Acetic Acid 443 684 438 384 1,017 602 458 447 China Acetone 930 796 568 1,038 1,033 850 901 971 China Acrylic Acid 1,342 1,376 1,171 1,103 1,943 1,764 1,042 1,037 China Acrylonitrile 1,914 2,385 1,786 1,297 2,245 1,581 1,329 1,380 China Caprolactam 2,253 2,446 1,812 1,441 2,147 1,964 1,787 1,857 China Ethanol 739 894 803 926 1,122 1,119 1,043 1,073 China Ethyl Acetate 868 1,085 846 872 1,434 1,132 954 934 China Fluorspar 329 443 445 398 410 440 466 489 China Methanol 373 417 303 252 393 384 331 334 China Phenol 1,185 1,574 1,189 928 1,382 1,503 1,132 1,104 China Phthalic Anhydride 1,049 1,115 927 789 1,018 1,242 1,120 1,031 - - - 195 340 347 319 347 4,787 4,370 1,936 1,789 2,247 2,734 2,565 2,335 811 China Soda Ash China TDI China VAM 975 1,250 967 815 2,077 1,812 959 1,274 923 657 812 1,608 1,656 982 950 - 2,598 2,635 2,555 3,095 2,663 2,305 2,260 CY2017 CY2018 CY2019 CY2020 CY2021 CY2022 CY2023 Dec-23 4,239 4,533 4,757 4,353 7,168 7,915 3,738 3,521 947 1,006 966 966 1,419 1,112 838 796 Polycarbonate 3,343 3,974 2,694 2,219 3,845 2,935 2,282 2,193 Titanium Dioxide (TiO2) 2,667 2,625 2,299 2,160 3,141 2,814 2,343 2,316 MDI 3,990 3,532 3,301 3,301 3,301 3,283 2,281 2,221 456 696 428 393 1,034 628 487 469 Malaysia/ Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil MDI China Chemical Prices Chemicals (USD/MT) Bromine PVC Acetic Acid Centrum Institutional Research 34 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2024 Index Petrochemicals Petrochemicals (USD/MT) CY2017 CY2018 CY2019 CY2020 CY2021 CY2022 CY2023 Dec-23 Benzene Rotterdam 862 831 695 497 1,040 1,102 965 889 Benzene Korea 818 819 640 485 918 1,033 905 876 Benzene China 999 982 729 574 1,107 1,211 1,020 975 Toluene Rotterdam 655 758 716 442 775 1,221 1,082 933 Naphtha Japan 497 615 526 383 657 787 655 667 Ethylene NWE 1,119 1,158 956 678 1,204 1,142 804 734 Ethylene Korea 1,151 1,214 849 728 1,022 1,001 838 846 Propylene NWE 956 1,184 960 788 1,341 1,127 824 861 Propylene Korea 879 1,036 881 796 1,022 997 831 815 Butadiene Korea 1,487 1,416 1,051 702 998 1,092 923 930 Styrene Korea 1,219 1,300 979 728 1,160 1,202 1,048 1,023 HDPE Europe 1,551 1,609 1,440 1,291 2,075 2,008 1,611 1,545 LDPE Europe 1,645 1,692 1,491 1,376 2,495 2,422 1,953 1,833 LLDPE Europe 1,582 1,613 1,403 1,272 2,159 2,059 1,698 1,641 PP Europe 1,476 1,664 1,480 1,302 2,092 1,948 1,561 1,456 Polystyrene SEA 1,375 1,510 1,218 1,045 1,497 1,492 1,247 1,225 EDC SEA 267 310 349 312 759 546 315 355 VCM SEA 748 751 733 737 1,231 954 698 640 PVC SEA 896 921 860 883 1,455 1,146 842 780 MEG SEA 854 918 579 472 678 583 503 516 PTA SEA 669 870 743 475 714 886 802 766 OX China 916 1,006 887 663 935 1,215 1,138 1,031 PX Rotterdam 766 981 806 504 880 1,266 1,176 1,039 1,854 1,907 1,469 1,517 2,384 1,738 1,358 1,280 ABS SEA Source: Bloomberg, Industry Crude Crude (USD/bbl.) CY2017 CY2018 CY2019 CY2020 CY2021 CY2022 CY2023 Dec-23 Brent 54.6 70.3 64.7 42.8 70.3 100.3 82.8 77.8 WTI 51.0 64.8 57.0 39.7 68.1 94.9 77.9 71.9 Dubai-Oman 53.2 69.1 63.6 42.7 68.9 97.0 82.0 77.1 CY2017 CY2018 CY2019 CY2020 CY2021 CY2022 CY2023 Dec-23 Source: Bloomberg, Industry Spreads/ Margins Spreads/ Margins (USD/MT) Caprolactam-Benzene 1,254 1,459 1,075 873 1,041 753 769 883 Phenol/Acetone-Benz./Propylene 414 646 429 637 681 585 441 490 Ethyl Acetate-Acetic Acid/ Ethanol 183 154 130 128 167 140 101 72 PP-Propylene 521 479 521 511 751 820 737 595 Ethylene-Naphtha 626 539 427 303 547 355 149 67 PVC-EDC 631 607 512 574 696 601 527 425 PVC-VCM 148 169 126 147 224 192 145 140 Polystyrene-Styrene TDI-Toluene 156 213 237 323 337 290 199 203 4,174 3,534 1,210 1,355 1,499 1,512 1,484 1,403 Source: Bloomberg, Industry Currency Currency CY2017 CY2018 CY2019 CY2020 CY2021 CY2022 CY2023 Dec-23 Dollar Index 96.5 93.6 97.4 95.9 92.5 104.0 103.4 102.4 USDINR 65.1 68.4 70.4 74.1 73.9 78.61 82.55 83.2 USDCNY 6.76 6.62 6.91 6.90 6.45 6.7 7.1 7.13 EURINR 73.5 80.6 78.8 84.5 87.4 83 89 91.1 Source: Bloomberg, Industry Centrum Institutional Research 35 Chemical Pulse 03 January 2023 Disclaimer Centrum Broking Limited (“Centrum”) is a full-service, Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange, Mumbai (BSE) and National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. 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Centrum Institutional Research 37 Chemical Pulse 3 January 2023 Disclosure of Interest Statement 1 Business activities of Centrum Broking Centrum Broking Limited (hereinafter referred to as “CBL”) is a registered member of NSE (Cash, F&O and Currency Derivatives Limited (CBL) Segments), MCX-SX (Currency Derivatives Segment) and BSE (Cash segment), Depository Participant of CDSL and a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager. 2 Details of Disciplinary History of CBL CBL has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority from accessing /dealing in securities market. 3 Registration status of CBL: CBL is registered with SEBI as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH000001469) 4 Whether Research analyst’s or relatives’ have any financial interest in the subject company and nature of such financial interest No 5 Whether Research analyst or relatives have actual / beneficial ownership of 1% or more in securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the document. 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