COMPLETE E-BOOK
FUNDAMENTAL
BIAS – HOW TO DO
YOUR WEEKLY
ANALYSIS
DIAMANT CAPITAL PRIVATE MEMBER E-BOOK
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INTRODUCTION
Before we get into everything, we must first explore Forex as a
whole and the 2 strategies employed into any analysis that we do.
TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS
FUNDAMENTAL
ANALYSIS
(SMC is our style)
Always make sure that we are fundamentally backed to
understand:
1. The direcCon of the market and where it is biased to go
towards
2. All we do now is find a technical set up in that direcCon using
SMC strategies.
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INTRODUCTION
How to get the most complete view of the markets?
1. Knowing the fundamental direction of a currency pair
before we get into analysing it
2. From this bias, we will then look for technical analysis
in that direction using smart money concepts (order
blocks, market structure etc.)
Example of implemen8ng it:
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BASICS OF SMC
BASICS OF SMC
SMC OVERVIEW
SMART MONEY CONCEPTS
This is a term that we use to define our style of trading, as
opposed to classical retail strategies employed by most traders
around the world.
SMC takes a look at more of the order flow of banks and how
we can potenCally get into these trades through this
understanding.
THE REALITY OF ‘INSTITUTIONAL TRADING’
By no means is this the ONE way that banks and insCtuCons
trade as it is oNen publicised by many SMC traders. If you were
to really look at some of the largest and most public bank
traders, their analysis revolves around 2 things:
1. Fundamentals – the most important part
2. Simple technical entries (as seen even using support and
resistance at Cmes)
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BASICS OF SMC
3 KEY CONCEPTS (SMC)
HERE IS THE 3 KEY STEPS YOU NEED TO TAKE WHEN
ANALYSING
1- MARKET STRUCTURE
Key in understanding what type of trend we are in and
order flow of the market
2- IDENTIFY LIQUIDITY
We need to know where the market is gravitated
towards going to and what will happen around these
areas (for example, entry or TP points)
3- ENTRIES
Once we understand where we want to enter, we can
now choose the appropriate order block to use.
WE WILL TALK ABOUT THIS IN FURTHER DETAIL…
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BASICS OF SMC
FOR BEGINNERS?
FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE COMPLETELY NEW
TO THIS AND WANT TO LEARN THE BASICS:
GO VISIT MY YOUTUBE CHANNEL WHERE I UPLOAD
COMPLETELY FREE TUTORIALS RANGING FROM
BASICS TO MORE ADVANCED LESSONS
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BASICS OF SMC
FOR BEGINNERS?
VIDEOS THAT I RECOMMEND TO START OFF WITH:
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5 STEPS TO
COMPLETE YOUR
WEEKLY ANALYSIS
5 STEPS FOR YOUR WEEKLY ANALYSIS
Before we get into it
1. Why is fundamental analysis so important?
-You can understand where the market is going to go
-Certain set ups are therefore validated / invalidated
-You have the reassurance that you know what the
outcome of certain news events could be
2. Do I really need it, fundamental analysis?
-Fundamental analysis will be perhaps one of the best
confirma@ons of any trade
-You understand the true movers of the market
3.
Will I always have a set fundamental bias?
-There will be @mes where certain currencies are
inconclusive or you are currently wai@ng on some
news.
-Not every week will you have a set bias for every
currency. Remember to never force a bias.
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5 STEPS FOR YOUR WEEKLY ANALYSIS
So remember this!
So if I had to break this down
simply:
1- Complete our fundamental
breakdown
2- Use that fundamental bias to pick
our POIs for our weekly analysis
3- Enter the trade using technical
analysis
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5 STEPS FOR YOUR WEEKLY ANALYSIS
STEP 1: Fundamental
Analysis
MY ROUTINE:
1- READ THROUGH MY WEEKLY ARTICLES
Look through a range of ar@cles and bank reports
that explore what has happened in the previous
week and what this means for the market.
As well as what will be going on in the week ahead
and the impact that it will have
2- START TO UNDERSTAND THE IMPORTANT INFO
There will be a lot of reading so the key skill to
develop is being to pick out the relevant bits of
informa@on
Key @p: As you go through your list, you will come
to realise that the same things will be said. It just
reinforces the idea that many experts/sources see
the same viewpoint.
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5 STEPS FOR YOUR WEEKLY ANALYSIS
STEP 1: Fundamental
Analysis
MY ROUTINE:
3- START TO UNDERSTAND POSITIVES/ NEGATIVES
With every bit of informa@on, you can begin to
understand if this will be posi@ve or nega@ve for
the currency.
4- CONCLUSIONS MAY BE DRAWN NOW
Once you have a solid understanding of
fundamentals, you can start to draw a conclusion
on how this currency may do.
Remember: at @mes, we may not have a conclusive
direc@on on a currency as we are s@ll wai@ng on
more data / informa@on
DIAMANT CAPITAL
5 STEPS FOR YOUR WEEKLY ANALYSIS
STEP 1: Fundamental
Analysis
FULL Fundamental Watchlist sent to Students
Resource 1: Live News
FXStreet – a great place for live
news releases and reading up on
experts’ views on the topic
Resource 2: Weekly Ar8cles
AcCon Forex – a really good
website that shows arCcles from
mulCple sources that can be used
weekly / daily
Resource 3: Data Website
Trading Economics – provides some
great data (at the boTom of the
home page) and lays it all out in a
very logical manner.
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5 STEPS FOR YOUR WEEKLY ANALYSIS
FULL Fundamental Watchlist sent to Students
STEP 1: Fundamental
Analysis
PLEASE NOTE:
YOU MAY SKIP
PAST THIS
WITHOUT
REALISING HOW
VALUABLE WHAT I
HAVE SAID
ACTUALLY IS.
GO BACK AND
LOOK AT THEM
RESOURCES AND
USE IT TO YOUR
ADVANTAGE
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5 STEPS FOR YOUR WEEKLY ANALYSIS
STEP 2: Applying Fundamentals
So now based on our fundamental research, begin to
understand what this will mean for currency pairs
Example: GBPUSD sells
GBP
USD
-This week’s U.K. data offered increasing evidence of a
slowing economy. August GDP unexpectedly fell 0.3%
month-over-month and services ac?vity dipped 0.1%,
while industrial output dropped 1.8%.
-"With traders not trus?ng the new UK government and
remaining worried that aggressive hikes by the BoE will
assist in dragging the UK economy into recession, the path
of least resistance for the Bri?sh currency may s?ll be to
the downside,“
-Expansionary fiscal policy decisions : tax cufng at the
same ?me as high infla?on only adds more to it.
--Disappoin?ng economic data from the United Kingdom
con?nues to weigh heavily on the pound.
-According to the Bank of England’s own forecasts, the
country is close to a deep recession. And according to the
es?mates of the Bri?sh Chamber of Commerce (BCC), the
recession is already in full swing, and infla?on will reach
14% by the end of the year.
-Therefore, we see a nega?ve GBP outlook
-- The US Fed hiked the Fed funds rate by 75bps to bring
the key rate to 3.25%. In addi?on, the Fed’s “dot plots”,
which shows where Fed members think interest rates are
headed, had an average increase of 125bps by the end of
2022. This would presumable mean another 75bps hike in
October and a 50bps hike in December.
-With all that in mind, that markets were specula?ng that
the Fed could soon be pivo?ng. However, those hopes
were dashed as September’s Non-Farm Payroll data
showed that the US added 263,000 jobs to the economy, as
the Unemployment Rate fell to 3.5%. Fed Chairman Powell
has maintained that the Fed would sacrifice some of the
Unemployment Rate in order to bring down infla?on.
-- AXer stronger than expected CPI reading in the US,
investors added their bets con?nua?on of aggressive
?ghtening by Fed ahead. Such expecta?ons were affirmed
by FOMC minutes which highlighted policymakers’ concern
on persistent infla?on, and the cost of doing too li\le.
-Therefore, the Fed is likely to con?nue with its aggressive
rate hikes……
(This is an example of how you look at all the relevant points
then make an informed decision at the end)
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5 STEPS FOR YOUR WEEKLY ANALYSIS
STEP 2: Applying Fundamentals
The trades that are clearer to see in terms of
fundamental direction will be because individually.
-one will be strong
-one will be weak
GBPUSD
Now we look for sells for GBPUSD on the higher 8me frame!
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5 STEPS FOR YOUR WEEKLY ANALYSIS
STEP 3: 4 Hour Chart
START ON THE 4 HOUR TIME FRAME
Because we will be doing our analysis for the week
ahead, the 4HR time frame gives us a nice view of
the previous 2 weeks of price action.
Key points:
-Mark our key areas of market structure
-Start to understand the general trend
-Are we within premium / discounted areas yet
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5 STEPS FOR YOUR WEEKLY ANALYSIS
STEP 4: 1 Hour Chart
MOVE DOWN TO THE 1 HOUR TIME FRAME
Now we have iden@fied key market structure areas
and we fully understand the trend/ consolida@on
we are in; we can now look more in depth.
Key points:
-Iden@fy higher @me frame liquidity areas too such
as Equal Highs, Equal Lows, Trend Line Liquidity,
Imbalances etc.
-Now we can start to look for Points of Interests for
next week.
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5 STEPS FOR YOUR WEEKLY ANALYSIS
STEP 5: Refinements
REFINING FURTHER IF NECESSARY (15/30 MIN)
At @mes, you may want to refine further if entering
straight off a limit. However, if you are going to be
using a confirma@on entry, then you may end up
deciding to just leave it at the 1 Hour POI.
Key points:
-For me personally, the 30 min Time Frame is one
of the best in terms of refining from a weekly
analysis basis. Of course we could go even lower
down to the 15min but I would rather wait un@l we
reach these areas first.
DIAMANT CAPITAL
5 STEPS FOR YOUR WEEKLY ANALYSIS
Conclusion
Fundamental Analysis complete
Generally, I will be able to pick out a few pairs that
have a clearer direc@onal bias in the market. All
that’s lea for us to do is simply get in this direc@on.
Technical Analysis complete
Using our fundamental research, we will now
simply just wait on our POIs for the week ahead.
No rushing…
Generally my watchlist by this point varies but I will
likely only trade ½ pairs that week.
We are ready!
And just like that, we are now ready. This is my
exact weekly plan that I use…
DIAMANT CAPITAL
GBPUSD
FULL CASE STUDY BREAKDOWN
EXAMPLE OF HOW
THIS ACTUALLY
WORKS
FULL CASE STUDY BREAKDOWN
CASE STUDY - GBPUSD
In the next few pages, we will be exploring the case
study GBPUSD.
1.
2.
3.
4.
Fundamentals for sells
4HR Chart
1HR Chart
Entries on the lower @me frames
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FULL CASE STUDY BREAKDOWN
CASE STUDY - GBPUSD
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FULL CASE STUDY BREAKDOWN
STEP 1: Fundamental
Analysis
1- USD Fundamentals (BUYS)
As explored above, my overall conclusion for USD
was that we would be seeing a strength.
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FULL CASE STUDY BREAKDOWN
STEP 1: Fundamental
Analysis
2- GBP Fundamentals (SELLS)
As explored above, my overall conclusion for GBP
was that we would be looking for more weakness
with this pair.
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FULL CASE STUDY BREAKDOWN
STEP 2: Applying Fundamentals
GBPUSD
Now we look for sells for GBPUSD on the higher 8me frame!
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FULL CASE STUDY BREAKDOWN
STEP 3: 4 Hour Chart
Untouched order
block for sells
MiEgaEon off
breaker block
Order block sits just
above EQH liquidity
Imbalance to aim
for down below
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FULL CASE STUDY BREAKDOWN
STEP 4: 1 Hour Chart
MiEgaEon off
breaker block
Untouched order
block for sells
Order block sits just
above EQH liquidity
Imbalance to aim
for down below
DIAMANT CAPITAL
FULL CASE STUDY BREAKDOWN
STEP 5: ReVnements
30 min chart provides us with 2
possible areas if we really wanted
to refine this chart
Usually refining the chart can be very useful
but in this case, since both areas are valid,
you have 2 opEons
Set 2 limits at half the risk
each (for example, at 0.5% risk
each)
Set one limit on the HTF for the
larger area at full risk (for example
1% risk on this trade)
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FULL CASE STUDY BREAKDOWN
ANALYSIS SENT IN TO THE
GROUP
And as always, all analysis is sent into the Private
Discord for all the members
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FULL CASE STUDY BREAKDOWN
ENTRIES
All that’s leR for us to do is:
1- Wait for our POIs to be hit
2- Enter the trades
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FINAL MESSAGE
I hope you enjoyed this completely FREE PDF guide,
and that you see the value here!
My last words…
You might be expec@ng me to sell you a $1,000 dollar
course
Not even :)
In fact, no where near this…
I’m making a change to the industry
I’m going to be sending you an offer you simply cannot
refuse
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Keep an eye on your emails… for the end of the week
especially