Should I stay or should I go ? The determinants of senior
workers’ employment in France.
By Leopold Lucquet, Julien Holh and Adrian Alvergne
In this paper, we use the SRCV 2019 dataset on living resources
and conditions to examine the old-age labour supply. Seniors are
defined in this study as people aged between 55 and 64 years old
and are further separated between two age cohorts. We evaluate
the impact of a set of individual characteristics and work-related
indicators on the willingness of seniors to pursue work for another
year. Our main finding is that while the 55-59 years-old are
sensitive to their health condition and work relationships, the
60-64 years-old work longer if their skillset remains relevant.
JEL: J14, J26, J24
Keywords: Retirement, Employment, Labour demand, Economics
of the elderly
In March 2023, the French government enacted a law reforming the pension system. Since the bill proposal, a violent public outcry aroused and crystallized over
one topical question: the shift of the legal retirement age (LRA) from 62 to 64
years old for approximately all workers. The LRA in France is deemed a symbol
in the public debate. Changing it should have an impact on the employment of
older workers, mainly through two obvious channels: (i) a longer commitment to
the firms by delaying retirement (ii) an extended presence of older workers in the
labour market (Aubert, 2012). Casting an attentive eye on seniors revealed that
older workers are now concerned with issues relative to poverty and a smooth
transition to retirement, which can be far from linear: they inform retirement
decisions on working conditions and well-being. In 2020, the mean effective retirement age was 62.3 years (62 for men and 62.6 for women) – roughly two years
more than in 2010. We thus focus most of our research effort on seniors aged between 55 and 64 years old, as it is the more sensitive to any reform. We know the
determinants of labour supply to be multifold when it comes to senior workers.
As pointed out by previous research, they fall into financial tradeoffs between the
disutility of work and pension benefits - other social factors and incentives aside.
On the other side, scholars focusing on firms showed that they can have equivocal hiring behaviour when considering the attributes - or lack thereof - of senior
workers. Filling a gap between these strands of literature, this paper attempts to
measure the effects of a set of older workers’ individual characteristics and work
conditions on their decision to remain in labour for another year.
The first papers on retirement decisions built on life-cycle models (Lazear, 1979),
framing a tradeoff between work disutility and financial incentives, but failed to
highlight the influence of social transfers. A second stream of the literature showed
that both the structure and the changes in Social Security heavily inform latecareer labour supply: option models focused on overall income (Stock and Wise,
1990), and forward-looking models on discounted future pensions (Coile and Gru-
1
2
SENIOR EMPLOYMENT IN FRANCE
May 2023
ber, 2007). Among Social security parameters, seniors react more vividly to a
change in the statutory age of retirement than financial incentives (Behaghel and
Blau, 2012; Heywood and Jirjahn, 2016), due to financial illiteracy (Lusardi and
Mitchell, 2011) and heavy social norms (Seibold, 2021). Such models shed light on
the spike in labour force exits of American seniors in the 1990s (Blau and Goodstein, 2010), but bear little explanation on the recent surge in senior employment
and fail to disentangle the social security effect from other determinants. Adding
further strain, the conclusions are inapplicable in France. Among these determinants are health conditions and adapted schedules (Oshio, Usui and Shimizutani,
2018): seniors who work part-time are willing to retire later. A second branch
of the literature focused on the demand for senior labour, with the underpinning
assumption that seniors have distinguishable features. “Deficit theories” assume
that people lose their physical and mental capacities as they age 1 . Among sociologists, some have argued that the last 20 years’ neo-taylorian intensification of
labour has made it impossible for firms to maintain low-intensity jobs that used
to be suited for older workers (Gollac and Volkoff, 2007). Yet, the research on
this topic thus far lacks empirical support (Allen, 2019).
Regarding the peculiarities of French senior workers, political scientists held an
“early-departure” culture accountable for the lack of labour participation past 55
(Guillemard, 2005). In 2021, more than half of seniors were employed (little less
than 80% of the 55-59), this simple statistic shows that early exits from employment do not prevail. The SRCV database (2019) exhibits exit rates of 13% for
the 55-64 cohort - 5.9% for the 55-59 and 26.7% for the 60-64. Rather than opting
for early-retirement routes, older workers seem to retire at the legal retirement
age or past it. As mentioned above, empirical works on the inner defaults of
senior workers are weak and conflicting types of analysis coexist to explain senior
unemployment. Although dominant effects have already been highlighted in the
literature, we lack a coherent vision of the determinants of older workers’ employment along multifold dimensions (characteristics, work environment, etc.). In this
study, we use the INSEE 2019 “Statistiques sur les Ressources et les Conditions
de Vie” (SRCV, 2019) dataset and for the first time consider the perception of
senior workers on both their individual and living conditions to examine their
labour supply. We take a stand in looking more deeply into seniors as they see
themself fit for the labour market. Our variable of interest is whether seniors
intend to stay employed for another year; we differentiate between age groups
to point out variations in preferences. Our main result is that while the 55-59
years-old are sensitive to their health condition and work relationships, the 60-64
years-old work longer if their skillset remains relevant. In a broader perspective,
this research finds that labour-supply decision can not be accurately explained by
individual characteristics and work-related indicators, especially when they are
self-reported by workers. The rest of our study is organized as follows. Section
2 describes the French labour market for seniors to help comprehend the dynam1 Seniors who gained very ≪ specific ≫ human capital due to being specialized in one task will lose
their productivity potential after a period of unemployment, which explains their low rate of return to
employment (Hairault, 2012). Still, several inner characteristics of the senior workforce can influence HR
departments in their choice. The value of seniors’ experience is said to have faded following the gradual
codification of knowledge. Seniors restricted abilities regarding new technologies and new teamwork
practices can also make them less valuable to firms.
Mentored project
2
ENS de Lyon
3
SENIOR EMPLOYMENT IN FRANCE
May 2023
ics at play and recent trends. Section 3 describes our dataset and discusses the
methodology. Section 4 reports our results on the intention to pursue working in
the next 12 months. Further discussion of the results is presented in Section 5.
I.
An overview of the labour market for seniors
The labour participation of the 55-64 followed a U-shape pattern
Since the 1970s and the emergence of mass unemployment, early retirement
policies allowed seniors to leave the job market earlier, in a failed attempt to boost
youth unemployment. Access to public early retirement was later restricted, but
relaxed unemployment schemes for seniors turned into de facto alternative ways
to retirement. Seniors were deemed as an ≪adjustment variable≫ of firms’ costcutting plans (Hairault, 2012). Until 2003, pension reforms were designed to
improve the employment of young workers. The assumption that seniors squeeze
younger workers out of employment has later been challenged 2 . They translated
into a decline in senior labour participation down to a record-low in 2000.
Figure 1. The labour market of the 55-64 year-olds
Source: Insee (2021)
Since then, policymakers swung around and rather focused on increasing seniors’
2 Munnell and Wu (2013) debunked the myth that older workers should squeeze out younger generations from employment in the USA - with results consistent with studies on OECD countries and France
where the employment rate of the 15-24-year-old doesn’t fall with the rise of senior employment. Both
cohorts should rather be seen as a positive association in the labour market and within firms. Salem
et al. (2010) came short to assert a definitive conclusion for France, although highlighted that older
workers’ employment was not at the expense of youth. If not increased, the labour participation of young
individuals did not fall with the hiring of seniors. Still, the need to remain cautious about causality must
prevail: robust substitution between age groups measures could not be inferred nor simultaneity effects
on both young and old workers be controlled for.
Mentored project
3
ENS de Lyon
4
SENIOR EMPLOYMENT IN FRANCE
May 2023
labour participation. Most reforms shifted the legal age of retirement3 – directly
or indirectly, by increasing the duration of social contributions for full-rate pension
eligibility. The swooping effect of this sequence is blatant as the employment of
seniors jumped to former levels, making it a U-shape pattern (Fig.1) Both policies
(statutory retirement age) and broader trends (health, education, sensitivity to
the business cycle) are accountable for this recent surge. On the one hand, such
policies automatically deferred the effective retirement age, leaving some people
with no choice but to delay the liquidation of their pension. On the other hand,
raising the age of eligibility encouraged employees or their employers to extend
the duration of their employment, in anticipation of a longer retirement horizon:
this is the horizon effect (Aubert, 2012).
Slimmer routes to early retirement and a rising life expectancy (better health)
could explain the turnaround of the millennium. As old-age participation grew,
the labour force exits through unemployment and disability schemes remained
stable, if not slowed down. Unemployment rates of senior workers were quite
steady over the last 50 years. “Neither retired nor employed” older workers accounted for around 16% of the 55–64-year-olds. Public early-retirement schemes
were tightened or closed in most OECD countries by the end of the 2010s – and
now only account for 3% of retirees in France. As opposed to the 1990s economic
slowdown, seniors’ employment rates didn’t chunk after the 2008 recession, showing that late-career labour supply became less sensitive to the business cycle and
the level of unemployment. The rising educational attainment, by delaying entrance into the labour market also contributed heavily to the employment rates of
older workers, who are more educated than previous generations (Grigoli, Koczan
and Topalova, 2018).
Differentiating for age groups reveals that the labour market for seniors is changing in lock steps (Fig.2): although the 55-59 years old rose above EU and OECD
employment rate standards in the last decade (75.1% in 2021), the 60-64 cohort
still fails to meet OECD levels (35% versus 52.2% in 2021). Population projections
from Dares, ministère du Travail,, du Plein emploi et de l’Insertion and DARES
(2023) indicate that the 55-59 years old already reached a steady employment
rate, whereas that of the 60-64 are still expected to grow until 2040 (and stabilize
at 60%). French policymakers attempted to boost senior hiring through financial
and negotiation incentives. Still, both failed to bear decisive results (Behaghel,
Crépon and Sédillot, 2008; Caser and Jolivet, 2014).
Looking at senior females shows that among OECD countries, France has now
one of the most balanced ratios of female to male older workers (92.5% in 2020),
with respective rates of 51.8% and 56%. Since 2000, female employment accounted
for 60% of the rise in the senior workforce and converged to male levels (Fig.3).
Jointly working or jointly retiring ultimately depends on whether couples value
more complementary leisure or revenue (Casanova, 2010; Chiappori, 1988). In
couples where only one partner was affected by the French 1993 pension reform,
3 The 1993 and 2003 pension reforms bore insufficient effects on deferring retirement, mainly affecting
men (Bozio, 2011), healthy and top-skilled workers (Rabaté, 2019). The 2010 pension reform induced
a substitution effect (Rabaté and Rochut, 2020), and retirement was indirectly channelled through two
alternative routes: unemployment and disability leave (Hairault, 2012). Regarding workers’ welfare, the
impact of delaying retirement age depends on the spillover of education (Garrec and Lhuissier, 2017).
When the social benefits of education are lower than private ones, low-skilled workers benefit from higher
welfare if solely the skilled workers are affected by reforms.
Mentored project
4
ENS de Lyon
5
SENIOR EMPLOYMENT IN FRANCE
May 2023
Figure 2. The U-shape evolution of employment rates by age groups
Source: Insee (2021)
Figure 3. Male and female employment converge since 1975
Source: Insee (2021)
the unaffected partner aligned their retirement plan (Stancanelli, 2017). While
in France both men and women adapt to their partner’s retirement, the effect is
more pronounced for men aligning with women in the USA (Coile, 2003) and for
women adjusting to men in Norway.
An international comparison amongst relevant OECD countries such as the
USA, Germany, and Japan highlights both the progress and the remaining backwardness of France when it comes to employment-to-population ratios (Fig.4).
Germany has known the steepest increase in the latter for senior workers for
almost 20 years, mostly due to drastic reforms in the labour market with the implementation of part-time contracts, and low-wage jobs which lead to an increase
in both old-age poverty and employment, as Germans pursue working for financial
reasons, even past the retirement age (Hofäcker and Naumann, 2015). Due to a
structural shortage in overall labour supply and concerning old-age poverty rates,
Japan exhibits staggering employment rates for seniors, who navigate a labour
Mentored project
5
ENS de Lyon
6
SENIOR EMPLOYMENT IN FRANCE
May 2023
Figure 4. An international comparison
Source: OECD (2021)
market that has been adjusted accordingly, with flexible late-career contracts.
The French effective age of retirement is also lagging by 3 years on average. This
paper does not pursue this international comparison but rather strives to investigate the specific features of French senior labour supply and bring evidence as to
why the rates are still lagging.
II.
Empirical Strategy
The INSEE 2019 “Statistiques sur les Ressources et les Conditions de Vie”
(SRCV) is a recent cross-sectional database, covering precise and in-depth factors
relating to individual living conditions. One question in the surveys underlying
the data meets our interest regarding labor participation. Individuals have been
asked which professional status they see themselves in for the next 12 months.
3841 senior individuals – aged 55 to 65 years –answered the SRCV survey in 2019.
The dummy ≪ Emp ≫ was created to capture whether each individual prospect
would stay employed in the next 12 months. Both retirement and overall inactivity, which comprise alternative paths to retirement – unemployment, early
retirement, and disability leave - were thus considered as 0 in the binary setting.
The weight of personal characteristics and work conditions in labor participation
was estimated through a set of dummies. Among inner factors, “health” captures
the self-declared state of health of an individual, “comp”, is an indicator of competence based on whether an individual feels able to fully apply his skill range in
his position, and “high educ” whether an individual reached secondary education
or not. Regarding the professional environment, ”colleagues” takes the value of
1 if the respondent judges he has a good relationship with his co-workers, “fulltime” whether he is working full-time or part-time, and “permanent” captures
permanent positions. “female” and “SPC”, the aggregated socio-professional categories, are designated as control variables. In the last model specification, we
also control for variations in job satisfaction.
Mentored project
6
ENS de Lyon
7
SENIOR EMPLOYMENT IN FRANCE
May 2023
Emp = β0 + β1 health + β2 comp + β3 colleagues + β4 f ull time + β5 permanent
+ β6 high educ + β7 f emale + β8 SP C + β9 job sat
The underlying question behind this regression is ≪do I see myself working for
another year?≫. Whether this approach is sufficient to model a decision of labour
supply is up for debate insofar as individuals may have a larger horizon than one
year. As we focus on restricted groups that are near the legal age of retirement,
this research builds upon the assumption that one-year projections consist of a fair
proxy of retirement decisions. Results are separated into two age cohorts, 55-59
and 60-64. 60-64 are the ages when most people are eligible to full-rate retirement,
depending on their individual regime and situation. As a lot of people are already
retired, the age group 60-64 captures the situation of a very specific population:
those who have already pursued working after 59 and are still considering working
more. Not dividing by age groups would thus have led to misinterpretations and
severe bias.
The underlying question behind this regression is ≪ Do I see myself working
for another year? ≫. Whether this approach is sufficient to model a decision of
labour supply is up for debate insofar as individuals may have a larger horizon
than one year. As we focus on restricted groups that are near the legal age of
retirement, this research builds upon the assumption that one-year projections
consist of a fair proxy of retirement decisions. Results are separated into two age
cohorts, 55-59 and 60-64. At 60-64 most people are eligible to full-rate retirement,
depending on their individual regime and situation. In our dataset, almost 49%
of the 60-64 cohort consists of retirees, and people out of employment account
for 65% of this group. Therefore, the study of the 60-64 years-old captures the
situation of a very specific population: those who have already pursued working
after 59 and are still considering working more. Not dividing by age groups would
thus have led to misinterpretations and severe bias.
III.
Empirical analysis
Expected retirement within 12-months among the 55-59 and 60-64 age
groups
In our dataset, 48.08% of the 55-64 were retired and 39.9% were employed. As
there is a discrepancy between these rates and that of Insee Labor Force Surveys
(53.1% employment rate in 2019), our results underestimate the effect of our variable of interest.
For the 55-59 years old cohort health has a relatively strong influence on the
intention to remain in employment with regard to other explanatory variables.
Good health increases the likelihood of staying in employment by 0.256 in the 1st
specification (1), and by 0.235 in the 5th specification (5). However, the standard errors of the health variable are relatively high. For model 1, the standard
error is 4.22 and for model 6 it is 3.33. We know larger standard errors indicate
lower precision and higher uncertainty in the estimated coefficients. Surprisingly
seniors’ positive perception of their competence doesn’t raise their likelihood to
Mentored project
7
ENS de Lyon
8
SENIOR EMPLOYMENT IN FRANCE
May 2023
pursue work for another year. Workers aged 55-59 may not yet have seen their
skills fade, and do not overwhelmingly value their competence. They are naturally
more sensitive to their state of health than to their level of competence, which has
not yet deteriorated enough to have an impact on the decision to remain in employment or not. The health effect is driven by specific and abnormal situations:
Table 1—55-59 age group. Employment within 12-months
(1)
emp
(2)
emp
(3)
emp
(4)
emp
(5)
emp
(6)
emp
0.256∗∗∗
(4.22)
0.253∗∗∗
(3.79)
0.250∗∗∗
(3.78)
0.240∗∗∗
(3.32)
0.235∗∗∗
(3.33)
0.165∗
(2.22)
comp
0.0614
(1.60)
0.0527
(1.37)
0.0404
(0.99)
0.0440
(1.09)
−0.00367
(−0.09)
colleagues
0.108∗
(2.18)
0.112∗
(2.29)
0.124∗
(2.27)
0.120∗
(2.27)
0.0874
(1.64)
full time
0.0375
(1.17)
0.0320
(0.94)
0.0302
(0.87)
0.0348
(1.02)
permanent
0.124∗∗
(3.06)
0.127∗∗
(3.01)
0.181∗∗∗
(3.99)
0.164∗∗∗
(3.70)
health
high educ
0.0314
(1.32)
female
SPC
−0.0220
(−0.81)
−0.00468
(−0.18)
0.0632∗∗
(2.62)
0.0628∗∗
(2.67)
−0.00559∗∗∗
(−4.35)
−0.00505∗∗∗
(−4.05)
0.189∗∗∗
(4.39)
job satisfaction
0.621∗∗∗
(10.39)
Constant
Observations
1105
0.470∗∗∗
(5.66)
950
0.338∗∗∗
(3.69)
949
0.335∗∗∗
(3.33)
835
0.545∗∗∗
(4.98)
831
0.506∗∗∗
(4.65)
829
t statistics in parentheses
∗
p < 0.05,
∗∗
p < 0.01,
∗∗∗
p < 0.001
even if 55-59-year-olds are more likely than younger people to see their health
deteriorate, work disability due to illness remains scarce. Indicators of stress and
physical intensity at work are not independent, so only the general health indicator is kept in the model. The willingness to stay employed is reinforced for workers
with indefinite contracts (permanent); although working part or full-time doesn’t
affect the likelihood to remain employed. All else held fixed, seniors engaged in
a permanent tenure have a 0.164 (6) - or 0.181 (5) - higher chance of staying
in employment than seniors who aren’t. Keep in mind that this is a probability
of their decision to leave that doesn’t necessarily encompass the firm’s decision.
Whether seniors enjoy great relationships with their colleagues also increases their
likelihood to remain in the labour force by 0.120 (5). As far as gender differences
apply, being a female doesn’t increase the probability of quitting the labour force.
If anything, women are more inclined to stay employed – although statistically
significant, the coefficient is very low (0.0632 in specification 5). Controlling for
Socio-professional categories, the effects mentioned above hold, and changes in
SPC don’t bear an effect of magnitude on the likelihood to retire in the future.
Finally, it is impossible to conclude the effect of educational attainment on the
decision to retire. Although in theory, the longer the studies the longer workers
have to contribute to reach pension eligibility. This assumption may be counter-
Mentored project
8
ENS de Lyon
9
SENIOR EMPLOYMENT IN FRANCE
May 2023
balanced by an income effect tied to higher educational attainment, as wealthy
individuals may be inclined to retire earlier. As we do not have data on income, we
leave this for further research. A positive job satisfaction increases the probability
of a senior seeing themself work for another year but rules out the ”colleagues”
effect. Work relationships are arguably comprised in the overall job satisfaction
indicator.
Interpretation of the intercept is tricky with binary dependent and explanatory
variables. Yet, it appears that holding every variable at zero, the probability of
remaining in the labour force for another year revolves around 0.5.
Conversely, the 60-64 cohort is less sensitive to health concerns than to their
perceived competence and technical ability to continue working. It is reasonable
to think that a selection on the level of physical condition has already been at play
beforehand and that the 60-64 cohort is filled with a peculiar senior population
in employment, less affected by poor health. After running all specifications, we
Table 2—60-64 age group. Employment within 12-months
(1)
emp
(2)
emp
(3)
emp
(4)
emp
(5)
emp
(6)
emp
−0.0150
(−0.16)
−0.0159
(−0.16)
0.0195
(0.17)
0.0240
(0.22)
−0.0182
(−0.17)
comp
0.154∗
(2.28)
0.141∗
(2.05)
0.158∗
(2.06)
0.167∗
(2.17)
0.135
(1.70)
colleagues
0.0142
(0.17)
0.0211
(0.25)
0.0549
(0.55)
0.0730
(0.72)
0.0520
(0.51)
full time
−0.00538
(−0.11)
0.00634
(0.12)
0.0376
(0.66)
0.0358
(0.63)
permanent
−0.0442
(−0.73)
health
0.00599
(0.07)
high educ
−0.109
(−1.79)
0.0859
(1.78)
female
SPC
−0.0976
(−1.42)
−0.101
(−1.45)
0.0653
(1.18)
0.0639
(1.17)
0.0860
(1.77)
0.0915
(1.87)
−0.00149
(−0.59)
−0.00136
(−0.54)
job satisfaction
0.120
(1.54)
0.686∗∗∗
(8.72)
Constant
Observations
541
0.540∗∗∗
(4.38)
446
0.589∗∗∗
(4.18)
445
0.517∗∗
(3.09)
388
0.487∗
(2.34)
382
0.467∗
(2.18)
380
t statistics in parentheses
∗
p < 0.05,
∗∗
p < 0.01,
∗∗∗
p < 0.001
find perceived competence as the only significant explanatory variable: it lifts the
probability to pursue work by 0.154 (2) and 0.167(5). Here, the job satisfaction
coefficient, although identical (at 0.120) as that of the 55-59 age group, loses its
significance. We note here again a high standard error of 2.05 (2) and 2.17 (5).
That all but the competence determinant are uncorrelated and insignificant with
future employment makes the interpretation of the results uneasy. The 60-64 age
group could be so utterly different from their younger counterparts that none of
the determinants of the 55-59 years-old’s employment applies to their own work
Mentored project
9
ENS de Lyon
10
SENIOR EMPLOYMENT IN FRANCE
May 2023
behaviour; or the results on the latter cohort should be revisited and questioned.
As examining for other determinants than those listed in our regression tables is
not part of our research plan, we leave this conendrum unresolved, but cautious
that our results may be revisioned.
Also, for each age group, it remains impossible to rule on the influence of education level in the decision to stay or leave employment; the coefficients vary
between negative and positive values in the 95% confidence interval (and they are
very small).
Seniors appear far from being a homogeneous category of workers, as predicted
in the snapshot of the labour market in the introduction, and differentiating between age groups proves to be mandatory in order to understand their motivation
to remain in employment or to leave the labour force.
IV.
Discussion
An inclusive working environment –namely in the form of good relationships
with colleagues and satisfaction at work – tend to motivate workers aged 55-59
to stay in the labour force. This could be interpreted as the direct effect of corporate culture toward seniors, and fuel interest in studying the empirics of the
early departure culture. After 59, the senior’s perception of their own competence
plays a positive role in their participation. This could be a hint at the depreciated value of senior knowledge theory. The fact that the “younger” category of
seniors is not affected by their perceived competence would tend to confirm this
insight. Other tested factors have failed to demonstrate any effect, including the
one which was said to have been effective in Japan – part-time and high education
as determinants of a more senior-friendly workplace. As much as our regression
results may indicate statistically significant and substantial relationships between
working conditions, health and old-age labour supply these do not stand as causal
explanations. This paper doesn’t intend to comprehensively model French labour
participation but to test the influence of individual and work-related factors. Some
missing variables could influence the ones tested and undermine this paper’s results. Still, no suspiciously high impact of tested factors is witnessed. Although
this paper strives to examine some of the above-mentioned parameters, it is impossible not to leave other factors aside. Among the latter should be considered
overall household analysis. There already is a recent strand of literature investigating couples’ joint retirement behaviour, but further research should also dive
into other family incentives motivating retirement or late employment. As such,
many major labour supply determinants are missing, namely regarding pension
regime and financial status – hardly available in cross-sectional individual data
covering workplace subjects. This is blatantly displayed in the significant value of
the intercept. Our variables have been constructed as dummies, this makes our
analysis and regressions more practical, but we have no nuance on the intensity of
the determinants. Another important bias is that some variables influence each
other. This is why we considered in our regressions that variables like ”stress”
were already included in the variable ”health”. Attrition bias is also present in
our population. When performing our regressions and with the presence of many
missing values in our different independent variables, a large number of observations are deleted. The standard errors from our regressions are relatively high as
Mentored project
10
ENS de Lyon
11
SENIOR EMPLOYMENT IN FRANCE
May 2023
we have seen for the ”health” variable in Table 1 or the ”competence” variable
in Table 2. We believe that this is due to several factors, notably the number
of observations and therefore the attrition of the variables in our regressions, the
inclusion in our model of irrelevant variables which increases the standard error.
Several techniques can be used to reduce these standard errors such as the logarithmic transformation of variables or the use of more advanced regression techniques
such as the ridge, lasso, or elastic net. Another flaw lies in the SRCV database
itself. The variables capturing personal characteristics, such as competence, relationship with colleagues and state of health are all self-declarations. These are
good indicators of how well the individual feels, and how these feelings shape his
horizon toward retirement. As inherently subjective, they are less relevant regarding the actual capacity and working conditions. Although social categories were
used as a control, further studies diving into sociological differences in perceptions
at work would be welcomed. Furthermore, the individual’s interpretation of his
self-capacity could also be the result of corporate policy. Whether the relationship
with colleagues depends on individual social skills or work conditions installed by
the management can be left to the reader’s judgment. The same goes for competence, which could also be subject to changes according to firms’ policies in senior
training. Overall, this paper’s conclusions should be backed by cross-section data
using annual interviews to allow in-depth comparisons between companies’ and
employees’ points of view. This contribution would be instrumental in discussing
the respective effect of the early departure culture and of individual characteristics. Comparing managers’ and seniors’ perspectives would also help shape more
efficient inclusion policies.
V.
Conclusion
Aside from social security, wealth and financial incentives for retirement, seniors do adjust their late-career labour supply on more personal grounds. They
at least consider their health condition, skillset and work environment. Other
determinants of interest disappointed: no empirical support could be provided
to conclude on the influence of educational attainment, part-time work or even
socio-economic line of work.
VI.
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank our supervisor J. Goupille-Lebret for his help and the
Economics Department of ENS de Lyon for the opportunity to embark on this
research project.
References
Allen, Steven G. 2019. “Demand for Older Workers: What Do Economists
Think? What Are Firms Doing?” National Bureau of Economic Research.
Aubert, Patrick. 2012. “L’≪ effet horizon ≫ : de quoi parle-t-on ?” Revue
française des affaires sociales, , (4): 41–51. Place: Paris Publisher: La Documentation française.
Mentored project
11
ENS de Lyon
12
SENIOR EMPLOYMENT IN FRANCE
May 2023
Behaghel, Luc, and David M. Blau. 2012. “Framing social security reform:
Behavioral responses to changes in the full retirement age.” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4(4): 41–67. Publisher: American Economic
Association.
Behaghel, Luc, Bruno Crépon, and Béatrice Sédillot. 2008. “The perverse effects of partial employment protection reform: The case of French older
workers.” Journal of Public Economics, 92(3-4): 696–721. Publisher: Elsevier.
Blau, David M., and Ryan M. Goodstein. 2010. “Can social security explain
trends in labor force participation of older men in the United States?” Journal
of human Resources, 45(2): 328–363. Publisher: University of Wisconsin Press.
Bozio, Antoine. 2011. “La réforme des retraites de 1993: l’impact de
l’augmentation de la durée d’assurance.” Economie et statistique, 441(1): 39–53.
Publisher: Persée-Portail des revues scientifiques en SHS.
Casanova, Maria. 2010. “Happy together: A structural model of couples’ joint
retirement choices.”
Caser, Fabienne, and Annie Jolivet. 2014. “L’incitation à négocier en faveur
de l’emploi des seniors. Un instrument efficace ?” La Revue de l’Ires, 80(1): 27–
48. Place: Noisy-le-Grand Publisher: I.R.E.S.
Chiappori, Pierre-André. 1988. “Rational Household Labor Supply.” Econometrica, 56(1): 63–90. Publisher: [Wiley, Econometric Society].
Coile, Courtney. 2003. “Retirement incentives and couples’ retirement decisions.”
Coile, Courtney, and Jonathan Gruber. 2007. “Future Social Security Entitlements and the Retirement Decision.” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(2): 234–246. Publisher: The MIT Press.
Dares, ministère du Travail,, du Plein emploi et de l’Insertion, and
DARES. 2023. “Les seniors sur le marché du travail en 2021.”
Garrec, Gilles Le, and Stéphane Lhuissier. 2017. “Differential mortality, aging and social security: delaying the retirement age when educational spillovers
matter.” Journal of Pension Economics & Finance, 16(3): 395–418. Publisher:
Cambridge University Press.
Gollac, Michel, and Serge Volkoff. 2007. “Santé au travail : une dégradation
manifeste.” 179(2): 3–3. Place: Auxerre Publisher: Éditions Sciences Humaines.
Grigoli, Francesco, Zsoka Koczan, and Petia Topalova. 2018. “Drivers of
labor force participation in advanced economies: Macro and micro evidence.”
Guillemard, Anne-Marie. 2005. “Politiques publiques et cultures de l’âge. Une
perspective internationale.” Politix, 72(4): 79–98. Place: Louvain-la-Neuve Publisher: De Boeck Supérieur.
Hairault, Jean-Olivier. 2012. Pour l’emploi des seniors. Assurance chômage et
licenciements. Rue d’Ulm.
Mentored project
12
ENS de Lyon
13
SENIOR EMPLOYMENT IN FRANCE
May 2023
Heywood, John S., and Uwe Jirjahn. 2016. “The hiring and employment
of older workers in Germany: A comparative perspective.” Journal for Labour
Market Research, 49(4): 349–366. Publisher: SpringerOpen.
Hofäcker, Dirk, and Elias Naumann. 2015. “The emerging trend of work
beyond retirement age in Germany.” Zeitschrift für Gerontologie und Geriatrie,
48(5): 473–479. Publisher: Springer.
Insee. 2021. “Emploi - Séries longues Activité, emploi et chômage en 2021 et en
séries longues | Insee.”
Lazear, Edward P. 1979. “Why is there mandatory retirement?” Journal of political economy, 87(6): 1261–1284. Publisher: The University of Chicago Press.
Lusardi, Annamaria, and Olivia S. Mitchell. 2011. “Financial literacy and
retirement planning in the United States.” Journal of pension economics &
finance, 10(4): 509–525. Publisher: Cambridge University Press.
Munnell, Alicia, and April Wu. 2013. “Do Older Workers Squeeze Out
Younger Workers?” Discussion Papers. Number: 13-011 Publisher: Stanford
Institute for Economic Policy Research.
OECD. 2021. Pensions at a Glance 2021 :
Paris:OECD Editions.
OECD and G20 Indicators.
Oshio, Takashi, Emiko Usui, and Satoshi Shimizutani. 2018. “Labor force
participation of the elderly in Japan.” In Social security programs and retirement around the world: Working longer. 163–178. University of Chicago Press.
Rabaté, Simon. 2019. “Can I stay or should I go? Mandatory retirement and
the labor-force participation of older workers.” Journal of Public Economics,
180: 104078. Publisher: Elsevier.
Rabaté, Simon, and Julie Rochut. 2020. “Employment and substitution effects of raising the statutory retirement age in France.” Journal of Pension
Economics & Finance, 19(3): 293–308. Publisher: Cambridge University Press.
Salem, Mélika Ben, Didier Blanchet, Antoine Bozio, and Muriel Roger.
2010. “Labor force participation by the elderly and employment of the young:
The case of France.” In Social security programs and retirement around the
world: The relationship to youth employment. 119–146. University of Chicago
Press.
Seibold, Arthur. 2021. “Reference points for retirement behavior: Evidence from german pension discontinuities.” American Economic Review,
111(4): 1126–65.
Stancanelli, Elena. 2017. “Couples’ retirement under individual pension design:
A regression discontinuity study for France.” Labour Economics, 49: 14–26.
Publisher: Elsevier.
Stock, James H., and David A. Wise. 1990. “The Pension Inducement to
Retire: An Option Value Analysis.” In Issues in the Economics of Aging. 205–
230. University of Chicago Press.
Mentored project
13
ENS de Lyon