LECTURE NOTE 1
Strategic Management: Quantum/AI
Economics vs. Value-Creation View
(策略管理: 量子/AI經濟 vs. 價值創造觀點)
邱宏仁 教授
台大國際企業學系
Hill, Strategic Management, 13e. © 2020 Cengage. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned,
copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or part.
量子/AI經濟 對策略管理的新論述
 以量子理論(Quantum Theory). 量子點比特計算(Quantum-Dot qubit
Computing). 深度學習(Deep Learning). 生成型AI內容(Generative AI
Content) 為四大支柱(Four Pillars), 用以發掘 實體/虛擬金融服務競爭.
企業投資避險策略. 數位資產行為. 生成型內容估值. 數位遊戲生態體
系. 高效能運算(HPC)平台. 半導體全球聯盟… 等領域未解決問題. 開啟
策略管理新藍海的 學研關鍵議題:
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(A) Quantum Economics (量子經濟) -(A.1) Quantum-Dot Qubit Architecture for Hedging Strategy (避險策略之量子結構)
(A.2) Crypto-Asset Quantum Walk Behavior (數位資產量子行為)
(A.3) Pricing of Stable Diffusion in Cryptocurrency Quantum Field (加密貨幣量子均衡訂價)
(A.4) Economic Quantum-State: Scale, Scope, & Path Dependence (經濟量子態)
(B) AI Innovation & Platform Ecosystem (AI創新與平台生態) -(B.1) Valuation of Generative AI Content Innovation (生成型AI內容 之估值)
(B.2) Quantum Superposition in Digital Gaming Ecosystem [數位遊戲生態體系 之量子疊加態]
(B.3) Quantum Dynamics of HPC Platform Strategy [高效能運算(HPC)平台策略 之量子動態]
(B.4) Quantum Leap in Semiconductor Innovation Alliances (半導體創新聯盟 之量子跳躍)
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2
量子理論 對經濟商業的關聯性
 當前商管領域 對於快速轉換的競爭優勢, 多以不
具“可持續性”優勢來視之. 但在量子理論
(Quantum Theory, 從量子力學出發, 延伸到光學.
化學等領域) 的世界中, "不可持續"本身就是存在
糾纏狀態量子現象的優勢所在.
 企業策略不選強調ESG(Environment, Social,
Governance)等 有助於"可持續性"(Sustainability)之
標的, 而是透過"量子隧穿"(Quantum Tunneling). "
量子漫步"(Quantum Walk) 等量子現象實驗, 可據
以採納. 設計相關的動因進企業的競爭策略, 並進
而確認其 規模/範疇經濟Economies of Scale &
Scope) 及 路徑相依對營收獲利的貢獻度.
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copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or part.
3
人工智慧(AI) 對經濟商業的影響
 GPU大廠 輝達(Nvidia)宣稱: 透過其NVIDIA NeMo框架客製化,
從邊緣裝置(特別是裝置在汽車上的運算設備) 到雲端中心 都
可部署; 遊戲角色(Avatar)透過AI強化功能後, 可以理解用戶的
話語及互動...
 這只是一個行銷上所說的"價值命題"(Value Proposition), 而非
產品的可實現的核心利益(Core Benefits) -- 畢竟, 即使在以x86
為主的CPU時代, SoC(System on a Chip, 系統單晶片)不是只有
CPU的算力強, 就能讓企業用戶/消費者端 埋單. 同理, GPU也
只是強在透過AI演算法的內容生成, 而非涵蓋所有的運算面
向, 也無法取代CPU:
 高速運算(HPC)用於數據庫(或數據中心)業務, 並非GPU就能
獨立完成 -- 深度學習/機器學習的CNN. RNN. GAN等演算法,
對於語音. 圖形辨識. 合成的AI產品有幫助, 但耗電巨大; 而在
處理 "非重複性". "難以透過海量數據來預訓練" 的大數據分
析時, 也無法比兼超級電腦. 乃至量子運算的效能!
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4
引導案例: NVIDIA(輝達). AMD(超微)
NVIDIA的GPU只
是做為深度學習
/機器學習 演算
法的IC之一, 另外
要靠ASIC等其他
以CPU為主的IC -重中之重是
NVIDIA無法收購
成功的英國ARM.
5
輝達 VS. 超微的策略比較
 (1) GPU的主要 AI伺服器客戶(例如, 微軟. 谷歌等), 是
雲端服務業者原端 -- 面對的是消費端的"衍生需求",
買主可能錯判最終需求, 也可能無法回收在技術更新
的投資.
 (2) AMD在GPU的競爭力過於薄弱, 不是Nvidia這樣深
耕30年老手的對手. 6/13 AMD新產品發表會, 公布了
很優的GPU效率值, 但華爾街分析師不買帳. 6/15 股價
雖隨著其他科技股大漲, 但在AI股的"配對交易"中, 成
為空方的標的.
 (3) 在華為退出台積電的大客戶名單後, AMD補上缺口;
當時, 想要分散代工風險. 又想與三星建立策略夥伴關
係的Nvidia, 高階GPU訂單分別下給台積電與三星. 如
今, 在三奈米製程只有台積電有競爭力, Nviida也將高
階GPU訂單 全數轉單給台積電, 故AMD和台積電的夥
伴關係被削弱.
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6
LEARNING OBJECTIVES (1 of 2)
 Explain what is meant by “competitive
advantage”
 Discuss the strategic role of managers at
different levels within the organization
 Identify the primary steps in a strategic planning
process
 Discuss the common pitfalls of planning, and
how those pitfalls can be avoided
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copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or part.
7
LEARNING OBJECTIVES (2 of 2)
 Outline the cognitive biases that might lead to
poor strategic decisions, and explain how these
biases can be overcome
 Discuss the role strategy leaders play in the
strategy-making process
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8
STRATEGY
 Strategy - Set of related actions that managers
take to increase their company’s performance.
 Strategic leadership - Creating competitive
advantage through effective management of the
strategy-making process.
 Strategy formulation - Selecting strategies based
on analysis of an organization’s external and
internal environment.
 Strategy implementation - Putting strategies into
action.
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9
STRATEGIC LEADERSHIP
Figure 1.1 Determinants of Shareholder Value
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10
SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE (1 of 3)
 Shareholder value - Returns that shareholders
earn from purchasing shares in a company.
 Sources
 Capital appreciation in the value of a company’s shares
 Dividend payments
 Risk capital - Equity capital invested with no
guarantee that stockholders will:
 recoup their cash.
 earn a decent return.
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11
SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE (2 of 3)
 Profitability - Return a company makes on the
capital invested in the enterprise.
 Return on invested capital (ROIC) - Net profit divided
by capital invested in a company.
 Result of how efficiently and effectively the capital is
used to satisfy customer needs.
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12
SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE (3 of 3)
 Profit growth - The increase in net profit over
time, achieved by:
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selling products in rapidly growing markets.
gaining market share from rivals.
selling more to existing customers.
expanding overseas or diversifying into new businesses.
 To boost profitability and profit growth,
managers must:
 use strategies to give their company a competitive
advantage over rivals.
 deliver high profitability and sustainable profit growth.
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13
COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
 Competitive advantage - Occurs when a
company’s profitability is greater than the
average profitability of firms in its industry.
 Sustained competitive advantage - A company’s
strategies enable it to maintain above-average
profitability for a number of years.
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14
BUSINESS MODEL
 Business model - Conception of how strategies
should work together as a whole to enable the
company to achieve competitive advantage.
 Deals with how a company:
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selects, acquires, and keeps its customers.
defines and differentiates its product offerings.
creates value for its customers.
produces goods or services and delivers to the market.
increases productivity and lowers costs.
organizes its resources and activities.
achieves and sustains high profitability and growth.
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15
STRATEGIC MANAGERS (1 of 2)
 General managers
 Bear responsibility for a company’s overall performance
or for one of its major self-contained subunits or
divisions.
 Functional managers
 Responsible for supervising a particular function, task,
activity, or operation.
 Multidivisional company
 Competes in several different businesses and has a
separate self-contained division to manage each.
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16
STRATEGIC MANAGERS (2 of 2)
Figure 1.2 Levels of Strategic Management
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17
CORPORATE-LEVEL MANAGERS
 Chief executive officer (CEO), other senior
executives, and corporate staff
 Oversee the development of strategies for the
entire organization.
 Provide a link between people who oversee the
firm’s strategic development and the
shareholders.
 Ensure that business strategies pursued by the
company are consistent with superior
profitability and profit growth.
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18
BUSINESS-LEVEL MANAGERS
 Heads of business units
 Business Unit - self-contained division that provides a
product or service for a particular market
 Strategic Business Unit(SBU) – To provide product offerings to
the specific market segment(s) with a performance goal.
 Translate statements and intents from corporate
level into concrete strategies for individual
businesses.
 Are concerned with strategies specific to a
particular business.
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19
FUNCTIONAL- LEVEL MANAGERS
 Responsible for specific business functions.
 Develop functional strategies to fulfill the
strategic objectives set by business- and
corporate-level general managers.
 Provide information that helps formulate realistic
and attainable strategies.
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20
A FORMAL STRATEGIC PLANNING
PROCESS
1. Select the corporate mission and goals.
2. Analyze the organization’s external competitive
environment; identify opportunities and
threats.
3. Analyze the internal operating environment;
identify strengths and weaknesses.
4. Select organizational strategies that:
 build on strengths and correct weaknesses.
 are consistent with the mission and major goals.
 are congruent and constitute a viable business model.
5. Implement the strategies.
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21
STRATEGIC PLANNING PROCESS
Figure 1.3 Main Components of the Strategic Planning Process
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22
COMPONENTS OF A MISSION
STATEMENT
 Mission
 Purpose of the company, or a statement of what the company
strives to do.
 Vision
 Articulation of a company’s desired achievements or future state.
 Values
 Statement of how employees should conduct themselves and
their business to help achieve the company mission.
 Major goals
 Goal: Precise, measurable, desired future state that a company
attempts to realize.
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23
FORMULATING A MISSION
Figure 1.4 Defining the Business
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24
EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL ANALYSIS
 External analysis identifies strategic opportunities
and threats that will affect how an organization
pursues its mission.
 Involves examination of the:
 industry environment in which the company operates.
 country or national environment.
 socioeconomic or macroenvironment.
 Internal analysis focuses on reviewing the
resources, capabilities, and competencies of a
company.
 Goals: identify the company’s strengths and
weaknesses.
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25
SWOT ANALYSIS
 SWOT analysis - Comparison of strengths,
weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.
 Purpose - Identify the strategies to:
 exploit external opportunities.
 build on and protect company strengths.
 eradicate counter threats and weaknesses.
 Goals - Create or fine-tune a company-specific
business model.
 To align, fit, or match a company’s resources and
capabilities to the demands of its environment.
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copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or part.
26
SWOT STRATEGIES (1 of 2)
 Functional-level strategies - Directed at
improving the effectiveness of operations within
a company.
 Business-level strategies - Encompass the
business’s overall competitive theme.
 How it positions itself in the marketplace to gain a
competitive advantage.
 Different position strategies that can be used in
different industry settings.
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copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or part.
27
SWOT STRATEGIES (2 of 2)
 Global strategies - address how to expand
operations outside the home country.
 Since competitive advantage is determined at a global
level.
 Corporate-level strategies determine:
 the businesses a company should be in to maximize
profitability and profit growth.
 how to gain a competitive edge.
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copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or part.
28
STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION AND
FEEDBACK LOOP
 Strategy implementation
 Taking action at the functional, business, and corporate
levels to execute a strategic plan.
 Designing the best organization structure, culture, and
control systems to put a chosen strategy into action.
 Feedback loop - Provides information to the
corporate level on the:
 strategic goals that are being achieved.
 degree of competitive advantage being created and
sustained.
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copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or part.
29
CRITICISMS OF FORMAL PLANNING
MODELS
 Unpredictability of the real world.
 Excessive importance is attached to the role of
top management.
 While ignoring the role of lower-level managers.
 Many successful strategies are a result of
serendipity rather than rational strategizing.
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copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or part.
30
MINTZBERG’S MODEL OF STRATEGY
DEVELOPMENT
Figure 1.5 Emergent and Deliberate Strategies
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31
STRATEGIC PLANNING IN PRACTICE
Figure 1.6 Scenario Planning
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32
SCENARIO PLANNING
 Scenario planning - Formulating plans that are
based on “what-if” scenarios about the future.
 Encourages managers to:
 think outside the box and be more flexible.
 anticipate probable scenarios.
 Ivory tower planning - Recognizes that successful
strategic planning encompasses managers at all
levels of the corporation.
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copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or part.
33
COGNITIVE BIASES AND STRATEGIC
DECISION MAKING (1 of 2)
 Cognitive biases
 Systematic errors in human decision making.
 Arise from the way people process information.
 Confirmation bias
 Decisions are made based on prior beliefs, even when evidence
proves that those beliefs are wrong.
 Escalating commitment
 Decision makers, having committed significant resources to a
project, commit even more, despite receiving feedback that the
project is failing.
 Reasoning by analogy
 Use of simple analogies to make sense out of a complex problem.
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copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or part.
34
COGNITIVE BIASES AND STRATEGIC
DECISION MAKING (2 of 2)
 Representativeness
 Tendency to generalize from a small sample or a single vivid
anecdote.
 Violates the statistical law of large numbers.
 Illusion of control
 Tendency to overestimates one’s ability to control events.
 General or top managers are more prone to this.
 Availability error
 Arises from our predisposition to estimate the probability of an
outcome based on how easy it is to imagine.
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35
TECHNIQUES FOR IMPROVING
DECISION MAKING
 Devil’s advocacy
 A member of a decision-making team identifies all the
considerations that might make a proposal unacceptable.
 Possible perils of recommended courses of action are brought into
light.
 Dialectic inquiry
 Generation of a plan and a counterplan that reflect plausible but
conflicting courses of action.
 Promotes strategic thinking.
 Outside view
 Identification of past successful or failed strategic initiatives to
determine whether they will work for the current project.
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copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or part.
36
CHARACTERISTICS OF STRONG
STRATEGIC LEADERS
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Vision, eloquence, and consistency
Articulation of a business model
Commitment
Being well informed
Willingness to delegate and empower
Astute use of power
Emotional intelligence
 Self-awareness, self-regulation, and motivation
 Empathy and social skills
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37
DISCUSSION:
 What do we mean by strategy? How does a
business model differ from a strategy?
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copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or part.
38
DISCUSSION:
 What do you think are the sources of sustained
superior profitability?
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39
DISCUSSION:
 Discuss the accuracy of the following statement:
Formal strategic planning systems are irrelevant
for firms competing in high-technology industries
where the pace of change is so rapid that plans
are routinely made obsolete by unforeseen
events.
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copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or part.
40