APPLIED FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Theoretical Foundation of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). LONDON’S EVENING UNIVERSITY BBK.AC.UK INVESTORS’ CHOICES • Investors want to maximise returns and minimise risk. • Would seek to invest in those investments with high return and low risk. • Which investment would you choose? • A – Return = 5%, Standard Deviation = 5% • B – Return = 10%, Standard Deviation = 10% 2 INVESTORS’ CHOICES • However, when two investments with different investment payoffs (return and risk compositions) and correlation, we can always construct a portfolio which offers either higher risk and higher return or lower risk and lower return (provided that they are not perfectly and positively correlated). • Investors will choose the best portfolio that reflects their risk tolerance. 3 TWO FUND SEPARATION THEOREM • In a perfect and complete world: • no tax, • no transactions cost, and • lending rate = borrowing rate), • rational investors will combine all marketable assets in their portfolios (the most efficient portfolio as all diversifiable risks are gone). • If the risk-free asset is available, then everyone will split their capital into two funds: one in the risk-free and the other in the risky market portfolio; regardless of their risk preference. 4 EFFICIENT FRONTIER • Lending or Borrowing at the risk-free rate (rf) allows us to exist outside the efficient frontier. • Two-fund Separation Theorem T Expected Return (%) rf S Standard Deviation 5 CAPITAL MARKET LINE Return Market Return = rm Efficient Portfolio Risk Free Return . = rf Risk 6 CAPITAL MARKET LINE (CML) • Given the Two-Fund Separation Theorem and the implications from the portfolio theory, any efficient portfolio will lie on the CML, which has the following form: E R p R f p 7 EXAMPLE 1 • Suppose an investor wants to create a portfolio with a risk (measured in terms of the portfolio’s standard deviation) of 10%. • The market is offering a return of 12% (with a standard deviation of 7%) and a risk-free rate is at 5%. • What is the expected return on the portfolio? 8 EXAMPLE 1 • Risk-free rate = 5% • The slope of the CML • = (Return on the market – risk-free rate)/market’s sd • = (12% - 5%)/7% = 1 • The risk required by the investor = 10% • Using the CML => • E(Rp) = 5% + 1 x 10% = 15% 9 THINK: • What if the risk-free lending rate and the borrowing rate are not identical? • What if investors are not allowed to short-sell their investments? 10 CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL (CAPM) • Assumptions • Investors operate within the mean-variance framework • Capital markets are frictionless (no taxes, no transaction costs, or restrictions on short-selling) • All assets are marketable • Investors can lend and borrow at the same risk-free rate • Investors share the same belief for the return distribution of any given asset 11 IMPLICATIONS • Investors will hold the most diversified portfolio (i.e. the market portfolio). • Extra risk which can be diversified would not be priced in securities. • The only risk that would be priced would be the risk relative to the market. • CAPM defines the market risk of a company, beta, as the covariance between the returns of the company and the market divided by the variance of the return on the market. 12 SECURITY MARKET LINE Return Market Return = Rm . Efficient Portfolio Risk Free Return = Rf 1.0 BETA 13