1 Literature Review: Final Assignment – Chaos Theory Name Institution Affiliation Course Lecturer Date of Submission 2 Literature Review: Final Assignment – Chaos Theory Abstract Chaos theory comes from dynamic systems with non-linear characteristics that are sensitive to fluctuations, especially from the initial conditions. Chaos theory is an area of interest for researchers. It functions in a number of ways. It functions as a social compass discipline for companies that apply the same; it is important in applying strategy within companies; chaos theory has a role in the portfolio configuration within companies. Its further applications are in stock marketing and understanding the human body and its functions. Keywords – non-linear, dynamic, chaos, portfolio, social compass, stock 3 Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... 2 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 4 Findings .................................................................................................................................................. 5 Sources and Emerging Themes ........................................................................................................... 5 Strategic Formulation and Decision-making ...................................................................................... 5 Chaos Theory as Social Compass Discipline ...................................................................................... 8 The Stock Market.............................................................................................................................. 11 Portfolio Management ...................................................................................................................... 13 Chaos Theory and the Human Body ................................................................................................. 14 Conclusions, recommendations, and suggestions for further study ...................................................... 16 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................ 16 Recommendations ............................................................................................................................. 16 Suggestions for Further Study .......................................................................................................... 17 References ............................................................................................................................................. 19 4 Introduction Chaos theory can be traced back to its origins in the field of science and is the study of dynamic systems with non-linear properties. Chaos theory is a study that was first introduced by Lorenz (1963) through a simulation that predicted weather and the flow of fluids. Chaos theory is close to postmodernism because of the complexities and diversity that are highlighted in its structure. The implication is that chaos needs to be seen as a healthy and beneficial component of the process of formation but is contingent upon a new order being the result of chaos and whether it benefits anyone and how it produces these benefits. Chaos can be seen as the outcome produced by regular and irregular moves, which may be planned by those involved or unplanned; the moves may be major or minor, and those involved count for an end. In Alshammari et al. (2016), chaos theory has been defined as the study of how tiny changes in things produces significant future consequences. One real-life example that emerges in the text is that unseen chaos can sometimes lead to events such as global warming; weather conditions have continual and unpredictable changes. Control is only possible when the firm has figured that they are on the path toward chaos and the conditions have changed. Some of the conditions are the ones regarded as sensitive to the point of the most significant change. As an area of study, chaos theory has attracted a lot of research interest in fields such as organizational analysis. Chaos theory presents a framework through which organizations can explain their processes, such as the state of stability, their points of convergence and divergence, their evolution and revolution, and how these processes are embedded within these organizations. 5 Findings Sources and Emerging Themes Theme Articles Cited Strategic Formulation and Decision- 2, 7, 8, 9, 10, 16, 17, 19, 23 making Chaos Theory as Social Compass 1, 2, 4, 6, 22 Discipline The Stock Market 3, 13, 20, 21 Portfolio Management 11, 15 Chaos Theory and the Human Body 3, 5, 12, 14 Strategic Formulation and Decision-making Leadership theories are not enough to help organizations to meet their future expectations, which calls on the Application of chaos theory to help them in strategy and decision-making. The study by Unsal and Altindag (2021) reveals the need for future leaders to understand chaos theory and use the theory as a modality in interpreting the events that occur within and within the organization. An earlier study by Galacgac and Singh (2016) revealed that managers with the knowledge of chaos theory are in a position to give solutions to problems with ease because of such knowledge. They present leadership as a dimension of chaos theory that should be considered. Chaos increases the level of creativity in the decision-making process. An experiment by Niedernhuber et al. (2014) examined the role of chaos in decision-making. An experiment 6 they conducted on individuals led to their statement that environmental conditions affect decision-making to arrive at the conclusion that disorganization within the business environment made individuals open-minded when receiving inconsistent information. In another experiment they conducted, the effect was produced by something more than a chaotic or disorganized environment; the difference in the participants' mechanisms also produced the effect that the researchers witnessed. According to Alshammari et al. (2016), the importance of chaos theory extends to strategic alliances. Their study revealed that most companies ignored minute changes that might have led to misunderstandings, incomplete implementation of the actions, and lack of control for seemingly difficult variables. This difficulty makes the study of chaos theory an important reference in developing and implementing strategy, especially for success in the process of forging strategic alliances. Chaos makes organizations shape their leadership to accommodate uncertainty in their organizations by exploring different leadership philosophies. According to Fragouli (2016), effective leadership is seen in uncertain environments within the global framework. Fragouli (2016) conducts a review on the occurrence of chaos in businesses, the factors that shape chaos, its effects, and how leaders should manage their businesses in light of chaos. Organizations that use the chaos theory framework within their management based on its irregularity, complexity, and unpredictability cannot be managed on account of leadership from a single leadership approach or philosophy. The understanding is that in applying chaos theory to organizations, leaders are made to have a better understanding of their behaviors and the dynamics and complexities of organizations. Chaos theory allows those in management positions to address problems that emerge from complex interactions and unpredictability. In their research, Forgues and Thietart (2016) explain the use of chaos theory as a resource to inform strategy. The authors explain that chaos theory is a mathematical approach that is useful in analyzing non-linear dynamic 7 systems. Its use in management allows companies and organizations to solve complex interactions and unpredictability problems. Dynamic environments that are created by nonlinearity in companies may enter into chaotic situations. Such environments are unpredictable globally and over a long time. The unpredictability of the systems mean that companies exist in danger for a while. As such, companies that use chaos theory stand a chance to survive; chaos theory can be embedded in strategic management within organizations. Organizations use the ideas proposed by chaos theory in the understanding that industries never reach the point of equilibrium. In their study, Llora and Cordero (2016) make three claims that membership of a business organization is based on a choice of a system and not an individual choice; organizations are never stable, and the dependence existing among members of an organization makes them work within a group; external business environmental changes affect strategies by making them irrational. The three claims are in line with the claim by Levy (2007) that chaotic systems never achieve stability; as chaotic systems, industries have no way of attaining a state of stable equilibrium. The meaning derived from the assertions is that organizations achieve their objectives by managing through instability to reach a ground level where people work together and have minimum stability aimed at achieving the objectives of the organization. This means that if people within an organization do not reach a level ground where they can agree to work together, they will be unable to achieve stability, and in the process work together to achieve the objectives of the organization. Some scholars have proposed the applicability of chaos theory in the formulation of strategy and a competitive advantage. The usefulness of chaos theory by scholars has extended to their bid to unlock the conditions under which firms have the opportunity to improve how they perform and gain a competitive advantage. A research study according to Levy (2007) reveals that the use of chaos theory in helping companies develop their much- 8 needed competitive advantage to perform within their industries. Through his qualitative study, Levy (2007) employed chaos theory in his illustration of how crucial it was for managers to understand, perceive, and translate the complex systems so that they can decide rightly and innovate solutions for the challenges that emerge as they evolve. Levy's methodology is based on a simulation methodology that allowed him to study managerial complexities within his industry; he witnessed chaotic interactions among the actors and the effects that this chaos would have on the performance of firms as they get involved with the supply chain. Chaotic theoretical perspectives inform business managers on how they can take up radical viewpoints when making strategy such as setting resources based on scenarios and not on possible forecasts. A study conducted by Levy (2007) reveals that long-term plans involving chaotic systems is difficult radically informs organizations that intend to plan. While such planning is not impossible, organizations that try to set strategy based on future anticipation have serious implications (Levy, 2007). As such, organizations need to expand the resources they have at their disposal during strategic planning to account for the possible scenarios or outcomes from their engagements instead of considering the results of their forecast. As such, the radical position taken is that it is almost impossible to manage changes based on long-term specifics because of the inherent unpredictability of outcomes (Hamada & Paquibut, 2020). The complex systems provided by the industry dictate that broad strategies ought to be applied, but the dynamic nature of chaos and its systems mandate that the strategies employed have to adapt. The evolution of industrial structures and the strategies applied by firms, they have to change their rules, decisions and guidelines. Chaos Theory as Social Compass Discipline Chaos theory has applications in the field of education because of the insights it provides into education systems that consists of a mechanical world where individuals 9 attempt to acquire information through a philosophy of education at the time. Education in an era thrives based on the era and the needs of that particular era. However, individuals have to learn specific things within a specified period while improving the understanding of the linear system at a micro and macro level (Akmansoy & Kartal, 2014). However, the linearity with learning specific things in a specified time is not a foundation that should be used by educators in an information age like the 21st century. The linear research model that Newton proposes has been applicable in education systems without questions regarding the suitability of its foundations to the needs of the current century. In the arrangement, structuralism, complexity and relative indeterminism are the products of absolute determinism. The deterministic model has become an acceptable educational model in an information age like the 21st century. As such, understanding what comes through chaos theory provides an approach through which to construct a non-linear model that facilitates learning. Chaos theory has emerged as an important discipline in social science education. Akmansoy and Kartal (2014) further identify chaos theory as a social science discipline in education, but was adopted from physics and mathematics disciplines in its Application in the social sciences. The theory has found importance in the social sciences after scientists determined that random data becomes significant when one has to account for their long-term experiences. The study conducted by Alshammari, Pavlovic, and AL Qaied (2016) reveals the use of chaos theory in psychology, sociology and the behavioral sciences. Other areas of its Application are in clinical psychology, neuroscience, etcetera. Scholars continue to argue for the use of concepts from non-linear and dynamic systems in their study of psychological behavior. Scholars in social sciences also need to consider the fast-paced and chaotic movements experienced in the study of psychology. It is through the non-linear existence of social sciences that allow chaos theory become a palatable theory in social science education. 10 Chaos theory is useful in explaining social interactions such as mother tongue transfers during the language learning process. A dependence on the initial state of the Chaos Theory gives a plausible explanation explaining mother tongue transfer in the learning of new language. Children may make mistakes when in the early stages of learning a new language, but they do not disturb the languages they have already learned (Su, 2021). As such, they are able to use their mother tongue from time-to-time and develop habits with such use. The problem is that when people accept new languages, they destabilize the language or languages they have already mastered. The destabilization effect comes from external influence, which forces them to adapt to a new environment by changing the internal language structure in them (Su, 2021). The explanation given in the article by Su (2021) is that learners have a mastery of grammar rules even as they encounter new rules. A conflict in the grammar rules eventually leads to a reconstruction of the system, which is a reflection of the sensitivity to the language learning that takes place at the initial stages. The Application of chaos theory in schools as complex systems provides an opportunity to change and transform the schools for the better because learning and thinking are not to be seen as linear processes. According to Akmansoy and Kartal (2014), classroom managers have to be alive to the complexity and paradox that comes with the classroom atmosphere, which is also conducive to creativity. Demirtaş (2006) notes that the ability of an organization to maintain its dynamism and levels of creativity is akin to the effort that the organization makes to continually improve. The subjection of individuals to their education is important because their success is not a constant occurrence; there are times when progress takes place leading to their success at a faster rate than other times. Chaos theory suggests that "unsuccessful" students need a chance to do better in the long-run. The predictions of chaos theory are that education systems should not eliminate students with low performance issues because of the possibility that they will make progress 11 at a later time. According to Davey et al. (2005), chaos intervention positively impacts behaviors in career decision-making, self-efficacy and exploration behaviors. It is by staying positive, students are encouraged to make it to the end of their studies to acquire the skills they need for their career ambitions. Because of the unpredictability of circumstances based on chaos theory, students who might have been said to be headed to an unsuccessful road have a chance to become successful after a long time (Davey et al., 2005). Situations that emerge where students who had been seen as potentially unsuccessful but become successful are described as non-linear. The prediction for successful education systems is that they need to fluctuate between consistency and inconsistency such that they never have a balance. As such, the academic success of individuals varies as time progresses. The Stock Market Chaos theory has significant Application in trading stocks, and this knowledge has been expanded further. According to Klioutchnikov et al. (2017), chaos theory forms an appropriate part of knowledge that should be considered in the search for order in the midst of disorder. Initially, the theory had applications in the development of tools to help in trading stocks, but the Application has since been expanded within the field of finance. Klioutchnikov et al. (2017) make several arguments in support of the Application of chaos theory. The first argument they make is that chaos theory is a competitive theory with prospects of becoming a convenient theory in understanding the financial market. Secondly, traditional finance ignores dynamics within the market, but chaos theory relies heavily on the dynamics that emerge within the market. The theory is therefore more realistic and brings financial marketers closer to the real situation in the market compared to other possible theories. The third argument that Klioutchnikov et al. (2017) make is that instability needs to be associated with occurrences beyond crisis, where the theory of chaos has applications; crisis also comes from Minsk's financial instability, which is based on the assumption that 12 there is instability within the financial market. Crisis is associated with the innovativeness that takes place within the financial market. As such, the arguments that Klioutchnikov et al. (2017) front have to the linked to the positivity that comes from applying the chaos theory when analyzing financial markets. The Application of chaos theory within the stock market extends to the development of stock models and forecasts. According to Qiao (2021), a listed company that changes its stock price directly reflects the operation status of the company and the extent to which it is recognized within the market. Stock modeling and forecasting are difficult issues to determine, hence the use of chaos theory (Sahni, 2018). The need for a model defined through chaos theory is because stocks have trend and random factors at once. In the case of the stock market, the typical case is its characterization with a non-linear complex model (Qiao, 2021). Chaotic models tend to be exceedingly effective; chaotic models have theoretical and effective results in the field of communication, which presents a similar situation to that of the stocks. As such, it is plausible to have a model of stock price using chaos theory and thought. A further application of chaos theory in the stock market is in the Fractal Market Hypothesis. According to Biswas et al. (2018), the chaos theory explains the Fractal Market Hypothesis better than the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The hypothesis contains the Hurst exponent, which determines the rate at which chaos occurs. It also has a distinction between the fractal and random time series. On its part, the Lyapunov exponent helps in determining the rate of predictability in the hypothesis. When the Lyapunov exponent is positive, the indication is that there is chaos. As such, the time scale is set to a point where prediction becomes possible. When one plots market variations and matches them with chaotic analyses of the exponents, one is in a position to predict how the market may behave at some point in the future. 13 Portfolio Management Understanding chaos and chaos theory is helpful for managers to understand and tame the chaos in their organizations. According to Lanier (2012), researchers tend to be amazed by the differences within organizations ignited by entrepreneurs and managers. The chaos of entrepreneurs comes from their desire to achieve, preference to have control, ability to manage the risks that come to them and the capacity to tolerate the ambiguity that they experience. Entrepreneurs tend to create chaos, while managers endeavor to create bureaucracies for purposes of taming or managing the chaos that comes to them. The chaos that results from entrepreneurs is because they spark ideas that emerge from large entities (Lanier, 2012). Managers have to tap into the chaos and turn the chaos into something that their organizations can profit from. This is because creativity exists within the chaos created by entrepreneurs. As such, managers who are able to understand and tame the chaos within their organizations succeed. Understanding chaos provides private equity firms and portfolio companies the bureaucracy that they need to manage chaos within their organizations. According to Lanier (2012), private equity firms and portfolio companies have to exercise some level of bureaucracy with an understanding of chaos theory to manage anarchy within the organization and the level of chaos that they face. Both equity firms and portfolio companies eschew the connotation of the word bureaucracy. Some level of bureaucracy is needed as a necessary evil to manage the level of growth within an organization. However, the organization needs to have some knowledge of chaos theory and its predictions. As such, organizations need to correlate growth on account of chaos and adaptation to bureaucracies within the organization. Understanding this is the source of distinction between a venture firm and a private equity entity. The risks incurred by the private equity entity are mitigated 14 when such companies invest in portfolio companies. The leadership of portfolio companies is characterized by the tendency to have a scalable structure. Chaos theory affects the portfolio configuration of a company. Firms have to come to the realization that they need to consider a number of solutions that can be adapted to more or less structures so that they can realize the synergies and rent from the alliances formed. Researchers have determined that the chaos theory can advance the knowledge of individuals and provide sound solutions to the central paradoxes that come up within the strategy. A study conducted by Heimeriks et al., (2015) reveals that corporate structures have effects on the alliance portfolio configuration of an organization, depending on the size of the structure. The author considers the prevailing paradox within a strategy that firms remain to engage in alliances, without considering what is in a majority of the alliances, which have failed to reach the goals in question. The research by Heimeriks et al., (2015) reveals how one can develop an advanced and complicated framework that can reveal the motives, conditions and the matters that should be in a model. The chaos theory will have a role in advancing how paradoxes within a strategy. Chaos Theory and the Human Body The biological state of the human body is chaotic given the randomness one experiences, which is why chaos theory is plausible for use in understanding the human body. According to Demir et al. (2019), human biological, psychological, social and cultural processes are complex but can be predicted to the point at which chaos theory can then be implemented. For instance, energy processes in the human body are coincidental, irregular and irreversible, and the events in which they distribute energy are referred to as entropy. According to the definition given to entropy events, things in the universe are in movement and are headed towards disorder, which is irregular. Other explanations of entropy are the emergence of a star, which sets off a process in which there is a continuous loss of heat with 15 time as the path towards disorder shortens and the star disappears. An example of chaos in the human body is the utilization of glucose in the body through cell organelles such as the mitochondria; the other processes include the formation of cells in the body and death of cells. According to Janecka (2007), homeostatic processes that provide an inner balance against the entropy in the human body until one die, which is proof of the order within the human body. The balance provided within the body shows a balance in an irregular situation, which is understood based on the chaos theory. Chaos theory is helpful in making predictions concerning the human heart, and conduct medical procedures that can put back an abnormal heart to a steady state. According to Kumar and Hegde (2012), the human heart observes chaotic patterns. This is further clarified by Biswas et al. (2018), who also found that the heart can display chaotic traits. As such, the time between the beats is not constant, but varies from one beat to another. For instance, the time between the beats depends on how much activity an individual is doing at the time. There are conditions under which the heartbeat increases; there are conditions under which the heart beats erratically. The beating of the heart can at times be termed chaotic. As such, medical practitioners are in a position to analyze the heart and help to restore the heart to a steady state instead of a state of chaos. Chaos theory is also useful in explaining the cooling of the human body. For instance, the mammary glands of a mammalian female experience the benefits of a chaotic cooling systems which helps with the regulation of temperature (Kumar & Hegde, 2012). A scrutiny of the human body reveals that the two parts that facilitate regulation of conditions in the human body following chaos theory are the mammary glands in women and the testicles in men. Breasts operate much like the scrotal sac in men; they are both erratic and random in their mobility. Any move that restricts the mobility through the use of what is widely called the brassieres tends to compromise the cooling ability with which the breasts have been 16 endowed. As a consequence, the temperature regulatory mechanisms of the breasts become deranged. According to Kumar and Hegde (2012), there are medical doctors who believe that the development of breast cancer can be attributed to the compromise of the normal movement of the breasts. Breasts are designed to have an erratic non-voluntary movement. Therefore, a proper understanding of the chaos theory helps people to understand ways through which to treat the human body to avoid the development of avoidable conditions. Conclusions, recommendations, and suggestions for further study Conclusion Chaos theory has a number of applications. There areas of Application in which chaos theory features are social sciences, strategic Application, portfolio configuration, stock markets and understanding of the body functioning of human beings. As a system, chaos theory has helped in the development of models in mathematics and mechanics in the study of random and unpredictable behavior of system. The term that is normally used is deterministic chaos, which is paradoxical given that there are two familiar notions that are connected, but are incompatible. Recommendations The occurrence of events such as pandemics as was witnessed with the COVID-19 pandemic necessitate the exploration of chaos theory to help in predicting the possibility of such events and their effects. Chaos has attracted a number of disciplines, which is why it has attracted interests in the fields of mathematics, science, engineering, economics, etcetera. Any systems undergo an evolutionary process, which is why many systems are called dynamical systems. As such, they are prone to chaos. The chaos is in the meaning, the equations formulated and dimensions. 17 Taking the butterfly effect into account, a number of solutions – preemptive solutions – can be sought for to address the issues affecting the education process. Opportunities can be created to have a positive stream of events within the education sector to help students develop a desirable behavior. Such a move would concede to the fact that the process of education is random and chaotic, not linear. As such, the success of students has variations based on time. Flexible programs can contribute significantly to the development of schools if implemented. Curriculum developers can take into account the qualities of different students when coming up with programs to facilitate education. The disorder experienced within systems is not supposed to frighten but to act as an opportunity for reorganizations are pursuing creativity by adapting to the situation at hand. Suggestions for Further Study Given enough data, machine learning is a useful approach that can be used by researchers in information technology to identify useful patterns in complex systems. Studies are needed to understand the possibilities that lie in artificial intelligence and machine learning, and whether their further development will be a threat to humanity in the future. Though many studies have assumed that artificial intelligence and machine learning will not be used as tools that will eventually replace human beings but rather ones that will complement the intellect and capabilities of human beings, there is need to worry and be skeptical if one understands the chaotic patterns that emerge from chaos theory. According to disability research, machine learning presents prospects that may be able to assist individuals with the means to study patients. Artificial intelligence and cognition have new insights into human behavior and development into the future. All these call for the use of a complex nonlinear but dynamic system. Chaos theory provides a fluid construct to map the phenomena of individualism with classic studies of epidemiology. Such an integration across several sectors 18 such as mathematics and engineering help to incorporate methods for analyzing, predicting, and utilizing machine learning to understand how systems are poised to function within the chaotic system that is created by the high level of unpredictability. 19 References Akmansoy, V., & Kartal, S. (2014). Chaos theory and its application to education: Mehmet Akif Ersoy University case. Educational Sciences: Theory & Practice, 14(2), 510– 518. https://doi.org/10.12738/estp.2014.2.1928 Alshammari, M., Pavlovic, M., & AL Qaied, B. A. (2016). Chaos Theory in Strategy Research. American Journal of Business and Management, 5(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.11634/216796061605728 Biswas, H. R., Hasan, M., & Bala, S. K. (2018). 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