Advanced Volatility and associated topics Introduction In this section, we discuss details of volatility. Volatility is one of the most interesting and important aspects of Quantitative Finance. Volatility is the key parameter determining the price of an option, yet it is also the hardest to measure. There are many types of volatility; the precise nature and di¤erence is very important - it is crucial that we know which volatility we are talking about. This adds to the di¢ culty of volatility considerations. In the Black-Scholes model, the SDE for the stock has two parameters, and but later the drift disappears even though the stock depends on it. Some …nd this counter-intuitive that the value of a call option does not depend on whether the underlying stock is more likely to go up than it is to go down. Recall this is a consequence of hedging. Hence the importance of modelling the volatility ’correctly’if in the business of derivative pricing. If not things become increasingly complex! Suppose we are concerned with stock selection,then the drift comes back in. The Black-Scholes model is very elegant but it does not perform well in practice. A basic assumption of the framework is a constant geometric Brownian motion for the underlying dS = dt + dWt S and leads to a partial di¤erential equation for which either an analytical solution exists or can be treated numerically. Thus far the role of is that of a parameter. It is the most important parameter when pricing an option, and is also the most di¢ cult to measure. In comparing the solution to reality, the important question arising is "How plausible is a constant volatility?". Recapping the model for a Call option C (S; t) ; the pricing equation and terminal condition in turn @C 1 2 2 @ 2C @C + S + rS rC = 0 2 @t 2 @S @S C (S; T ) = max (S E; 0) : The solution is C (S; t) = SN (d1) Ee r(T t)N (d2) where p log(S=E ) + (r + 12 2)(T t) p d1 = and d2 = d1 T t: T t This pricing formula relates the option price C to six arguments; the variables S; t and the parameters r; ; E and T . Quantity Observable? CM yes quoted market option price S yes today’s spot price t yes today’s date T yes expiration E yes strike price r yes today’s interest rate No So in derivatives the volatility is the most important parameter. Drift is not important. It doesn’t matter if e.g. it is doubling in price or halving in price. It is the level of noise/randomness that a¤ects the price. But it is very hard to measure volatility cannot be seen/observed. It is how much randomness there is in a stock price in an instant in time. For these reasons di¤erent types of volatility needs to be discussed. Spot Volatility ! St+ t : Recall these are popular St for many reasons, both theoretic and algorithmic. De…ne logarithmic returns Rt := log The mean and variance in turn are h mt = E [Rt] ; vt = E (Rt mt) The classical Black-Scholes stock price process St; t is dSt = Stdt + StdWt; 2 i 0 given by GBM Using Itô to calculate d(log St) gives the solution as 1 2 t + Wt 2 log St = log S0 + St Now look at the mean and variance of the logarithmic return log S0 " St E log S0 " V log !# =: t := St S0 !# ! 1 2 t 2 =: s2 (t) := 2t This gives one de…nition of volatility : It is a measure of the variance of the logarithmic returns, such that the square of the volatility gives the rate of increase of the log-returns: d 2 s (t) = 2: dt Equivalently, if we denote the quadratic variation of a stochastic process Yt by [Y ]t ; then we have [log S ]t = 2t; so the squared volatility is the rate of change of the quadratic variation of the log-stock price. Deterministic Volatility Models Simplest generalisation of the Black-Scholes constant volatility paradigm is to allow the volatility to be a deterministic function of time so that the stock price SDE becomes dSt = Stdt + (t) StdWt; and the modi…ed Black-Scholes equation becomes @V 1 2 @ 2V @V 2 + rV = 0: + rS (t) S @t 2 @S 2 @S for the option price V (t; S ) ; where V (T; S ) = h (S ) : By the Feynman-Kac theorem the option pricing function is given by the riskneutral expectation h i Q r(T t) V (t; S ) = E e h (ST )j S t = x ; where under the Q measure, St follows GBM above with replaced by r : dSt = Stdt + (t) StdWtQ; where WtQ is a Q Brownian motion. Under Q; the terminal log-stock price is now given by log ST = log St + r (T t) Z T 1 2 t 2 (s) ds + Z T t (s) dWsQ Hence, under Q, given St = x; log ST is normally distributed: log ST 1 2 2 N log x + r (T t) ; 2 (T t) ; where 2 is the root mean square (RMS) volatility, given by 2 (T t) = Z T 2 (s) ds Z T 2 (s) ds t It follows that one simply prices the option using the Black-Scholes formula with the volatility replaced by 2 t = 1 (T t) t Thus, in all BS pricing formulas for European, path-independent options, just replace by t: For example, the price of a vanilla call at time t is given by C 2 ; S; t t = SN (d1) Ee r(T t)N (d2) where log(S=E ) + (r + 21 2t )(T p d1 = T t p t t; d2 = d1 t T Z T 1 2 = 2 (s) ds: t (T t) t t) ; Local Volatility Further generalisation of Black-Scholes: dSt = Stdt + (t; St) StdWt: The deterministic function (t; S ) ! (t; St) is called local volatility. Option price V (t; St) for terminal payo¤ h (ST ) satis…es the BSE @V 1 2 @ 2V @V 2 + + rS rV = 0 (t; S ) S 2 @t 2 @S @S V (T; ST ) = h (ST ) : The model is also referred to as ‘restricted stochastic’ volatility model, since the volatility path t = (t; St) is stochastic, but the only source of randomness enters through the state variable S . Special cases are i. = (t) is a function of time alone: There is a term-structure, but the model fails to predict smiles and skews. As discussed above. ii. = (S ) is a function of the stock alone: An important family are constant elasticity of variance (CEV) models of the form dSt = Stdt + St dWt In the previous table we note that CM ; S; t; T; E and r are observables. For a plain vanilla option we de…ne the implied volatility denoted i to be that value of the unobservable ; which gives the market price of the option when substituted into the Black-Scholes option pricing formula. All the other observables are …xed in this process. It is described as the market’s view of the future actual volatility during the life of the option. The implied volatility according to the Black-Scholes model should be independent of both strike and expiration; in reality it depends on both. Consider the following example: A trader can see on their screen that a certain call option with one year until expiry and a strike of £ 100 is trading at £ 10.45 with the underlying at £ 100 and a short-term interest rate of 5%. Can we use this information in some way? We can take invert this relationship between volatility and an option price by asking “What volatility must I use to get the correct market price?” This is called the implied volatility. If CBS denotes the Black-Scholes theoretical price then solving CM (S; t) = CBS (S; T; r; E; i (E; T )) for i becomes a root-…nding problem. Use of e.g. Newton-Raphson method will work. For implied volatility to be a useful concept means there should be a unique implied vol. This is only true if the options vega ; where @V (S; t) = (S; t; ; E; T ; r; ::::) ; @ does not change sign for any value of S; t or other parameters, besides ; involved. While this is true for European calls and puts it is true for all options. Smiles According to the classical Black-Scholes analysis dS = dt + dW S so that is a property of S alone. For a vanilla call or put option the strike E and the expiry T are properties only of the option. Thus the volatility (which in the Black-Scholes model should be the same thing as the implied volatility) should be independent of both strike E and the expiry T or a vanilla put or call. In practice, we …nd the implied volatility for a vanilla call (or put) depends on both the strike and the expiry, the so-called smile. This implies that there is something wrong with the Black-Scholes model. The dependence of implied volatility on expiry could imply a term structure for volatility, b (t) ; rather than a constant volatility : This is not a serious problem; we know how to deal with time dependent volatilities; we just replace 2 in the Black-Scholes formulae by 1 Z T b 2 (s) ds: T t t The dependence on strike is a serious problem. It is quite inconsistent with the Black-Scholes analysis. One way of explaining the smile e¤ect is to assume that the volatility is a function of both spot price and time; = (S; t) : This is not the only possible explanation. Volatility Surfaces One means of implementing a no-arbitrage model is to assume that (St; t) : The stock price process dynamics follow dSt = tdt + (St; t) dWt St The Black-Scholes equation then becomes @V 1 2 @ 2V @V 2 + (S; t) S + rS 2 @t 2 @S @S rV = 0; and its solution can be written in the form V (S; t) = e r(T t) Z 1 0 p S; t; S 0; T V S 0; T dS 0: = V S 0; T is the payo¤ and p S; t; S 0; T is the risk-neutral probability density associated with the Kolmogorov equations 2 @p 1 @2 @ 0p ; 2 0 0 = rS S ; t S p @T 2 @S 02 @S 0 2 @ 2p 1 2 @p @p = + rS : (S; t) S 2 @t 2 @S @S That is p S; t; S 0; T can be viewed in two ways (given that the above analysis only makes sense if t < T ): If S and t are …xed (today’s spot price and date) then we can regard p S; t; S 0; T as the probability density that at time T > t the spot price will be S 0: This is a conditional probability density for future values, S 0 and T; given that the present values are S and t < T: If S 0 and T are …xed (some given value of the spot price and date, say) then p S; t; S 0; T is the probability density that at time t < T the spot price was S ; again this is a conditional probability function; the probability that the spot price was S at time t given that the spot price is S 0 at time T: Dupire’s method Suppose now that we want to …nd (S; t) from market data. In fact we shall …nd (E; T ) : More correctly, we …nd (S; t; E; T ) with the usual notation of the function arguments. Using @p 1 @2 = @T 2 @S 02 2 S 0 ; t S 02 p @ 0p rS @S 0 and that C (S; t) = e r(T t) Then @C = @T Z 1 E p S; t; S 0; T rC + e r(T t) Z 1 @p E @T S0 S0 E dS 0: E dS 0: Also (from Leibniz) Z 1 @C r(T t) = e p S; t; S 0; T dS 0 @E E 2 @ C r(T t) p (S; t; E; T ) = e @E 2 Now use the fact that @p @2 = 12 @S 02 @T where as earlier, 2 S 0 ; t S 02 p @ rS 0 p @S 0 p S; t; S 0; T dS 0 denotes the risk-neutral probability of a spot price in S 0; S 0 + dS 0 at time T > t; contingent on the spot price being S at t: Recall that p is contingent on today’s information, (S; t) ; in general p S1; t1; S 0; T = p S2; t2; S 0; T for say today, (S1; t1) ; and tomorrow (S2; t2) : @p Substituting for @T and using integration by parts we arrive, after lengthy calculation, at @C = rC + e r(T t) @T Later we will use Z 1 E S 0pdS 0 = (E; T )2 E 2p (S; t; E; T ) + r Z 1 E S0 E pdS 0 + E and from earlier we note that Z Z 1 E Z 1 E S 0pdS 0 : pdS 0 1 @C @ 2C r(T t) 0 r(T t) p (S; t; E; T ) ; =e pdS ; = e @E @E 2 E where the second expression gives 2C @ : p (S; t; E; T ) = er(T t) @E 2 @p Now use the Kolmogorov equation to express @T in @C @T @C = @T = Z 1 @p 0 0 rC + e r(T t) S E dS E @T rC + Z 1 r(T t) 2 S 0 ; t S 02 p 1 @2 e 2 @S 02 E @ rS 0 p @S 0 S0 The integral Z 1 E 1 @2 2 @S 02 Z 1 2 S 0 ; t S 02 p @ rS 0 p @S 0 2 S 0 ; t S 02 p 1 @2 02 E 2 @S Z 1 @ rS 0 p S 0 0 E @S S0 S0 E dS 0 E dS 0 E dS 0 = E dS 0 In what follows, we assume p decays su¢ ciently fast. Z 1 1 @2 2 E @S 02 2 S 0 ; T S 02 p v= S0 v0 = 1 S0 E E dS 0 : 2 2 @ = @S 02 2 S 0; T S 0 p @ 2 S 0 ; T S 02 p u = @S 0 u0 Z 1 = 2 S 0 ; T S 02 p 0 1 @2 S 02 2 E @S 2 S 0 ; T S 02 p 0 1 @2 S E 2 @S 02 {z | =0 = 1 2 (E; T ) E 2 p (S; t; E; T ) 2 = E dS 0 1 E} Z 1 @ 1 2 E @S 0 2 S 0; T 1 2 (E; T ) E 2 er(T t) @ 2 C 2 @E 2 2 0 S p dS 0 Similarly Z 1 @ rS 0 p 0 E @S S0 E dS 0 : v = S0 v0 = 1 E Z 1 @ = Now using Z 1 E 0 E @S rS 0p S 0 | S 0pdS 0 rS 0p {z =0 = Z 1 E @ rS 0 p u0 = @S 0 u = rS 0p E S0 S0 1 E} E dS 0 r Z 1 E E pdS 0 S 0pdS 0 +E Z 1 E pdS 0 For the …rst integral term it is the expected payo¤ (i.e. option price without discount factor), i.e. er(T t)C . @C = The second integral term from earlier @E @C er(T t) @E e r(T t) Z 1 E pdS 0 gives Hence Z 1 @ E @S 0 rS 0p S0 @C rEer(T t) @E @C rer(T t) C E @E E dS 0 = rer(T t)C = Putting everything together @C = @T = @ 2 C + rer(T t) C rC + e r(T t) 12 2 (E; T ) E 2er(T t) @E 2 @C @ 2 C + rC rC + 21 2 (E; T ) E 2 @E rE 2 @E Hence @C 1 2 @ 2C 2 = (E; T ) E @T 2 @E 2 @C rE : @E We can now, in principle solve for 2 (E; T ) = @C + rE @C @T @E : 1 E 2 @ 2C 2 @E 2 E @C @E If we now retrace our calculations we …nd that, because the call value C is a function of today’s spot; S; today’s date; t; the call’s strike E and the call’s maturity; T; C = C (S; t; E; T ) ; what we have called (E; T ) is actually 2 (S; t; E; T ) = @C(S;t;E;T ) @C(S;t;E;T ) + rE @T @E : 2 1 E 2 @ C(S;t;E;T ) 2 @E 2 Recall that, in practice, when we compute (S; t; E; T ) ; today’s spot price S and date t are …xed. We can vary only the strike E and the maturity T: That is, we have found a local volatility surface (E; T ) ; or more correctly (S; t; E; T ) ; as it is conditional on today’s spot price S and date t. Practical problems with this approach requires continuum of strikes and maturities (interpolation, extrapolation) numerical di¤erentiation is ill conditioned the denominator @ 2C @E 2 tends to zero for E ! 1 The last problem can be circumvented to some extent by switching from quoted prices to implied volatilities. Implied and local volatility If we use implied volatilities theorem gives 2 (E; T ) i, repeated application of the implicit function = p 1 + Ed1 T 2 i + 2 i (T 2 t @@Ei t) @@Ti + 2r iE (T + i (T t) E 2 @2 i @E 2 t) @@Ei @ i 2p d1 @E T where, as usual, log(S=E ) + (r + 12 2i )(T p d1 = t i T t) t Finding Roots A fundamental problem in numerical analysis consists of obtaining the zero of a function. Given a function y = f (x) obtain the root of f (x) = 0; i.e. …nd the value of x = c which satis…es f (c) = 0. e.g. f ( x) = x sin x: Four broad categories of root …nding: (i) Methods which do not use derivatives of the function (ii) Methods which do use f 0 (x) (iii) Methods for polynomials (iv) Methods which deal with complex roots Bisection The simplest method is that of bisection. The following theorem, from calculus class, insures the success of the method. Intermediate Value Theorem Suppose f (x) is continuous on [a; b] then for any y s.t y is between f (a) and f (b) there 9 c 2 [a; b] s.t f (c) = y: Example 1 1 The function f (x) = is not continuous at 0: Thus if 0 2 [a; b], we cannot x apply the IVT. In particular, if 0 2 [a; b] it happens to be the case that for every y between f (a) ; f (b) there is no c 2 [a; b] such that f (c) = y: In particular, the IVT tells us that if f (x) is continuous and we know a; b such that f (a) ; f (b) have di¤erent sign, then there is some root in [a; b] : This is a fundamental test we can apply. Example 2 Show that the function g (x) = x3 + 2x2 + 5x lying between 0 and 1: We note f (0) = s.t. 2 (0; 1) : 1 has a root 1; f (1) = 7: The sign change con…rms that 9 a root Once location of a root is established then a reasonable estimate of is a+b c= . We can check whether f (c) = 0. If this does not hold then one 2 and only one of the two following options holds: 1. f (a) ; f (c) have di¤erent signs. 2. f (c) ; f (b) have di¤erent signs. We now choose to recursively apply bisection to either [a; c] or [c; b], respectively, depending on which of these two options hold. Whichever an interval is chosen,the new interval containing the root can be further subdivided. If the …rst interval is jb aj ; then the second is half the length and so on. After n steps of bisection the interval containing the root will be reduced in size to jb aj 2n where in the earlier example the value b = 1 and a = 0: If the size of the interval becomes smaller than some speci…ed tolerance, t, then the calculation stops and convergence has been attained. Theorem 2 (Bisection Method Theorem) If f (x) is a continuous function on [a; b] such that f (a)f (b) < 0, then after n steps, the method will return c such that jc where j is some approximate root of f . jb aj 2n Example Consider f (x) = x e1=x. There is a root in [1; 2] : Use the bisection method to show that the root of f (x) = x interval [1; 2] is 1:763 (correct to 3 decimal places). f (x0) = f (1) = 1 e1 < 0 f (x1) = f (2) > 0 f (1:5) = 1:5 e2=3 = f (x2) = f ( x0 ) f ( x 2 ) > 0 0:4477 e1=x in the x0 + x1 ! x2 = = 1 :5 2 ) root in [x2; x1] i.e. in [1:5; 2] x2 + x1 1 :5 + 2 = = 1:75 2 2 f (x3) = 1:75 e1=1:75 = 0:0208 f (x3) f (x2) > 0 ) root in [x3; x1] i.e. in [1:75; 2] x3 = 1:75 + 2 3:75 = = 1:875 2 2 f (x4) = f (1:875) = 0:1704 f (x3) f (x4) < 0 ) root in [x3; x4] i.e. in [1:75; 1:875] x4 = 1:75 + 1:875 x3 + x4 = = 1:8125 x5 = 2 2 f (x5) = f (1:8125) = 0:0763 f ( x3 ) f ( x5 ) < 0 Continuing in this way we have we …nd the root in [x9; x10] i.e. in [1:761718; 1:7636715] x9 + x10 = 1:76269 2 = 1:763 to 3 decimal places x11 = Newton’s Method Newton’s method is an iterative method for root …nding. That is, starting from some guess at the root, x0, one iteration of the algorithm produces a number x1, which is supposed to be closer to a root; guesses x2; x3; :::; xn follow identically. We know from Taylor that f ( x + h ) = f ( x) + f 0 ( x) h + O h 2 : This approximation is better when f 00(:) is "well-behaved" between x and x + h. Newton’s method attempts to …nd some h such that 0 = f (x + h) = f (x) + f 0 (x) h: This is easily solved as f ( x) h= 0 f ( x) An iteration of Newton’s method, then, takes some guess xn and returns xn+1 de…ned by xn+1 = xn f ( xn ) : 0 f ( xn ) f (xn ) A B θ xn+1 C xn AC f ( xn ) From above we see that tan = = BC (xn xn+1) But = f 0 ( xn ) f ( xn ) f 0 ( xn ) = (xn xn+1) tan xn+1 = xn f ( xn ) f 0 ( xn ) This is the Newton-Raphson Technique. Example: Solve for roots, the function f (x) = x cos x: Start by considering x = cos x: That is draw y = x and y = cos x to obtain an initial guess for the root(s). 5 4 3 2 1 0 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 -2 -3 -4 -5 Clearly the diagram above shows that there is only one root 2 (0; 1) : We use the Newton formula xn+1 = xn f ( xn ) ; n = 0; 1; :::: f 0 ( xn ) where n = 0 is the initial guess. f (xn) = xn 1 + sin xn: x f ( x) 0 1 1 0:75 cos xn ! f 0 ( xn ) = so numerically we also see that f (0) f (1) < 0 =) 2 (0; 1) : NR formula for this function becomes xn cos xn xn+1 = xn ; x0 = 1 1 + sin xn x0 cos x0 = 0:75036 1 + sin x0 0:75036 cos 0:75036 x2 = 0:75036 = 0:73911 1 + sin 0:75036 0:73911 cos 0:73911 = 0:73909 x3 = 0:73911 1 + sin 0:73911 00:73909 cos 0:73909 x4 = 0:73909 = 0:73909 1 + sin 0:73909 which gives the root 0:73909: x1 = x0 Problems As mentioned above, convergence is dependent on f (x), and the initial estimate x0. A number of conceivable problems might come up. We illustrate them here. ln x , x + with initial estimate x0 = 3: Note that f (x) is continuous on R : It has a single root at x = 1. Our initial guess is not too far from this root. However, consider the derivative: 1 ln x 0 f ( x) = x2 Example Consider Newton’s method applied to the function f (x) = If x > e1, then 1 ln x < 0, and so f 0 (x) < 0. However, for x > 1; we know f (x) > 0. Thus taking f ( xn ) > xn 0 f ( xn ) The estimates will diverge from the root x = 1: xn+1 = xn Fourier Transforms If f = f (x) then consider Z 1 1 fb ( ) = p f (x) eix dx: 1 2 If this integral converges, it is called the Fourier Transform of f (x) : Similar to the case of Laplace Transforms, it is denoted as F (f ) ; i.e. F (f ) = Z 1 1 f (x) eix dx = fb ( ) : The Inverse Fourier Transform is then F 1 fb ( ) = Z 1 1 fb ( ) e ix d = f (x) : The convergent property means that fb ( ) is bounded and we have Z 1 1 jf (x)j dx < 1: Functions of this type f (x) 2 L1 ( 1; 1) and are called square integrable. We know from integration (basic property of Riemann integral) that Z b a Z b f (x) dx a jf (x)j dx: Hence fb ( ) = Z ZR R f (x) eix dx f (x) eix dx and Euler’s identity ei = cos +i sin implies that ei 1; therefore fb ( ) Z jf (x)j dx < 1: = q cos2 + sin2 R In addition to the boundedness of fb ( ) ; it is also continuous (requires a proof). = Note: If f (x) represents the probability density of some random variable X then the Fourier transform is the characteristic function of f (x) ; i.e. fb ( ) = E h i i x e : Example: Obtain the Fourier transform of f (x) = e jxj fb ( ) = F (f ) = = = = Z 1 1 Z 0 1 Z 0 1 Z 0 1 Z 1 f (x) eix dx 1 e jxjeix dx e jxjeix dx + exeix dx + Z 1 0 Z 1 0 e jxjeix dx e xeix dx = exp [(1 + i ) x] dx + 0 Z 1 0 exp [ (1 i ) x] dx 1 1 exp [(1 + i ) x] exp [ = (1 + i ) (1 i ) 1 1 2 1 + = = (1 + i ) (1 i ) 1+ 2 (1 i ) x] 1 0 Our interest in di¤erential equations continues, hence the reason for introducing this transform. We now look at obtaining Fourier transforms of derivative terms. We assume that f (x) is continuous and f (x) ! 0 as x ! Consider o n F f 0 ( x) = Z R 1: f 0 (x) eix dx which is simpli…ed using integration by parts 1 f (x) eix 1 so F n f 0 ( x) o = i Z R i Z R f (x) eix dx f (x) eix dx = i fb ( ) : We can obtain the Fourier transform for the second derivative by performing integration by parts (twice) to give F n f 00 (x) o = ( i )2 F ff (x)g = F f 0 ( x) = F f 00 (x) = i fb ( ) 2 fb ( ) 2 fb ( ): Example: Solve the di¤usion equation problem @u @ 2u = ; @t @x2 u (x; 0) = e jxj; 1 < x < 1; t > 0 1<x<1 Here u = u (x; t) ; so we begin by de…ning F fu (x; t)g = Z 1 1 b ( ; t) : u (x; t) eix dx = u Now take Fourier transforms of our PDE, i.e. F @u @t =F ( @ 2u @x2 ) to obtain b du 2u b ( ; t) : = dt We note that the second order PDE has been reduced to a …rst order equation of type variable separable. This has general solution b ( ; t) = Ce u 2t : We can …nd the constant C by transforming the initial condition F fu (x; 0)g = F b ( ; 0) = u n e jxj Z 1 1 o e jxjeix dx = b ( ; t) gives Applying this to the solution u hence b ( ; 0) = C = u b ( ; t) = u 1+ 2 1+ 2 2 e 2 2t ; : 2 1+ 2 : b ( ; t)) We now use the inverse transform to get u (x; t) = F 1 (u = Z 1 = 2 = 2 = 2 b ( ; t) e ix d u Z1 1 1 e 2 1 (1+ ) Z 1 1 1 Z 1 1+ 2 1 e 2 1 (1+ ) 2t e ix d 2t e 2t (cos x i sin x) d Z 1 cos x d This now simpli…es nicely because 2i 1 1+ 2 e 1 e 2 1 (1+ ) 2t sin x is an odd function, hence Z 1 1 1 1+ 2 e 2t sin x d = 0: 2t sin x d : Therefore u (x; t) = 2 Z 1 1 1 1+ 2 e 2t cos x d : In order to solve this we now need to use Residues (Complex Analysis). Complex Variables In the following sections we shall begin our study of analytic functions of a complex variable. Complex variable theory is one of the most beautiful branches of pure mathematics but it also has important applications in applied mathematics. More excitingly, complex variables are now used in derivative pricing, when solving the pricing equations via the Fourier Transform approach. In what follows we shall convey some of the basic ideas of complex analysis without emphasis on any rigor. Review of Complex Numbers A complex number z = x + iy; is a pair (x; y ) of real numbers. x = real part = Re z ; y = imaginary part = Im z Operations on complex numbers: 1. Addition: (x1; y1) + (x2; y2) = (x1 + x2; y1 + y2) 2. Multiplication: (x1; y1) (x2; y2) = (x1x2 y 1 y 2 ; x 1 y 2 + x2 y 1 ) The set of all complex numbers de…ned by C is called a …eld, i.e. addition and multiplication are associative and commutative (z1 + z2 ) + z3 = z1 + (z2 + z3 ) z1 (z2z3) = (z1z2) z3 distributive z1 (z2 + z3 ) = z1 z2 + z1 z3 zero: (0; 0) + (x; y ) = (x; y ) identity: (1; 0) s.t. (1; 0) (x; y ) = (x; y ) Non-zero complex numbers have inverses, i.e. given (x; y ) 6= (0; 0) 9 x0; y 0 s.t. (x; y ) x0; y 0 = (1; 0) In fact x0 ; y 0 = x y ; 2 2 2 x + y x + y2 ! Look at the complex numbers (x; 0) ; (x1; 0) + (x2; 0) = (x1 + x2; 0) (x1; 0) (x2; 0) = (x1x2; 0) So f(x; 0) 2 Cg is a sub…eld of C. In fact it is the same as R x 2 R 7 ! (x; 0) 2 C: Geometrical Representation There is a 1-1 correspondence between C and R2 z = x + iy = (x; y ) ! the point with coordinates (x; y ) : R2 is called an Argand diagram or the Complex Plane. x z = x+iy r y θ This is polar coordinate form (r; ) x = r cos ; y = r sin r = so sin cos q x2 + y 2 = q = q y x2 + y 2 x x2 + y 2 = y=r = x=r giving us an alternative representation of complex numbers, i.e. z = x + iy = z = r (cos + i sin ) = rei The …nal form is Euler’s identity/formula and called the mod-arg form of z: r = modulus of z = mod z = jzj = arg z = argument of z: is only determined by x and y up to the addition of an integer multiple of 2 : e.g. z = To …nd 1 i; x = 1=y !r= 2 solve 1= to get p = 3 4 p 2 cos or 1= p 2 sin or 54 : The values of arg z are 2n ; n 2 Z: 3 ; 5 ; 13 ; 21 ; ::::; 4 4 4 4 The Principal Value of arg z is the argument 11 ; 4 19 ; 4 which satis…es i.e. < 3 4 + : So we see that the angle is not unique, there are many values for the argument. The set f + 2n : n 2 Zg is written Argz: Examples: z = 1 i jzj = p 2 arg z = arctan n Argz = :::; 9 ; 4 o 7 ; 15 ; ::::: ; 4 4 4 1 = 1 4 2( ; ] z= p 3+i jzj = 2 Argz = n Argz = :::; :::; 5 arg z = 6 9 ; 4 o 7 15 4 ; 4 ; 4 ; ::::: 7 5 17 ; ; ; ::::: 6 6 6 For any z 2 C; the expression eiz e iz eiz + e iz sin z sin z = , cos z = and tan z = 2i 2 cos z de…nes the generalized circular functions, and ez + e z sinh z ; cosh z = and tanh z = sinh z = 2 2 cosh z the generalized hyperbolic function. ez e z Using Euler’s formula with positive and negative components we have ei e i = cos + i sin = cos i sin Adding gives 2 cos = ei +e i ) ei + e i cos = 2 and subtracting gives e i 2i sin = sin = : 2i We can extend these results to consider other functions: 1 1 1 cos ec z = ; sec = ; cot z = sin z cos z tan z 1 1 1 ; sec = ; cot z = cosh ec z = sinh z cosh z tanh z We can also obtain a relationship between circular and hyperbolic functions: ei we know 1=i = ei e i ) 1 sin (iz ) = e z 2i i hence sin (iz ) = 1 i: e z 2 ez ez 1 z = i: e 2 e z so sin (iz ) = i sinh z: Similarly it can be shown that sinh (iz ) = i sin z cos (iz ) = cosh z cosh (iz ) = cos z Example: Let z = x + iy be any complex number, …nd all the values for which cosh z = 0: We use the hyperbolic identity cosh(a + b) = cosh a cosh b + sinh a sinh b to give cosh z = cosh (x + iy ) = cosh x cosh iy + sinh x sinh iy = cosh x cos y + i sinh x sin y i.e. cosh x cos y + i sinh x sin y = 0 so equating real and imaginary parts we have two equations cosh x cos y = 0 sinh x sin y = 0 From the …rst we know that cosh x 6= 0 so we require cos y = 0 ) y = + n 8n 2 Z: 2 Putting this in the second equation gives sinh x sin (2n + 1) 2 =0 where sin (2n + 1) 2 = cos n = ( 1)n so sinh x = 0 which has the solution x = 0: Therefore the solution to our equation cosh z = 0 is zn = i (2n + 1) ; n 2 Z 2 De Moivres Theorem (cos + i sin )n = ei n = ein = cos n + i sin n Similarly (cos + i sin ) n = cos n It is quite common to write cos + i sin i sin n : as cis: If z = ei = cos + i sin then _ 1 = e i = z = cos z i sin : So cos sin Also z n = ein _ 1 1 1 = Re z = z+z = z+ 2 2 z _ 1 1 1 = Im z = z z = z : 2i 2i z ! z n + z n = (cos n + i sin n ) + (cos n = 2 cos n )rearranging gives 1 n 1 cos n = z + n : 2 z Similarly 1 n sin n = z 2 1 zn i sin n ) Finding Roots of Complex Numbers Consider a number w; which is an nth root of the complex number z: That is, if wn = z; and hence we can write w = z 1=n: We begin by writing in polar/mod-arg form z = r (cos + i sin ) : hence z 1=n = r1=n (cos + i sin )1=n and then by DMT we have + 2k + 2k = cos + i sin n n Any other values of k would lead to repetition. z 1=n r1=n k = 0; 1; :::::; n 1: This method is particularly useful for obtaining the n requires solving the equation roots of unity. This z n = 1: There are only two real solutions here, z = 1; which corresponds to the case of even values of n: If n is odd, then there exists one real solution, z = 1: Any other solutions will be complex. Unity can be expressed as 1 = cos 2k + i sin 2k which is true for all k 2 Z: So z n = 1 becomes r n (cos n + i sin (n )) = cos 2k + i sin 2k : The modulus and argument for z = 1 is one and zero, in turn. Equating the modulus and argument of both sides gives the following equations rn = 1 and n = 2k Therefore 2k 2k + i sin =1 n n 2k i = exp k = 0; :::; n n z = cos If we set ! = exp 2kn i then the n 1 roots of unity are 1; !; ! 2; :::::; ! n 1: These roots can be represented geometrically as the vertices of an n sided regular polygon which is inscribed in a circle of radius 1 and centred at the origin. Such a circle which has equation given by jzj = 1 and is called the unit circle. More generally the equation jz z0 j = R represents a circle centred at z0 of radius R: If z0 = a + ib; then jz z0j = j(x; y ) (a; b)j = j( x a ) + i ( y b)j and j(x (x a ) + i (y a )2 + ( y b)j2 = R2 b)2 = R2 which is the Cartesian form for a circle, centred at (a; b) with radius R: The unit circle is de…ned as jzj = 1 and the unit disk is jzj 1. If jzj < 1 then the disk is the open unit disk jzj 1 then the disk is the closed unit disk These are examples of open and closed disks jz z0j < ; jz z1 j Consider the annulus (ring shaped region) r < jz z0j < R: For the special case r = 0; i.e. 0 < jz z0j < R; we call this the punctured disk of radius R around the point z0. De…nition 1 The open disc centre z0 2 C and radius r > 0 is the set Nr (z0) given by De…nition 2 Nr (z0) = fz 2 C : jz z0j < rg The closed disc centre z0 2 C and radius r > 0 is the set Nr (z0) given by Nr (z0) = fz 2 C : jz z0 j rg Applications Example 1 Calculate the inde…nite integral Z We begin by expressing cos4 in terms of cos n cos 24 cos4 cos4 d : (for di¤erent n). 1 1 1 4 4 4 = z+ ) 2 cos = z + ) 2 z z 1 1 1 1 4 3 2 = z + 4z + 6z 2 + 4z 3 + 4 using Pascals triangle z z z z 1 1 = z 4 + 4z 2 + 6 + 4 2 + 4 z z 1 1 = z4 + 4 + 4 z2 + 2 + 6 z z We know 1 2 zn 1 + n z = cos n 24 cos4 1 1 = 2: 12 z 4 + 4 + 4:2: 21 z 2 + 2 + 6 z z hence 24 cos4 cos4 = 2 cos 4 + 8 cos 2 + 6 1 = (cos 4 + 4 cos 2 + 3) ) 8 Now integrating Z cos4 d Z 1 = (cos 4 + 4 cos 2 + 3) d 8 1 3 1 sin 4 + sin 2 + +K = 32 4 8 Example 2 As another application , express cos 4 in terms of cosn : We know from De Moivres theorem that cos 4 = Re (cos 4 + i sin 4 ) So cos 4 = Re (cos + i sin )4 ; and put c cos ; is i sin ; to give cos 4 = Re c4 + 4c3 (is) + 6c2 (is)2 + 4c (is)3 + (is)4 cos 4 = Re c4 + i4c3s cos 4 = c4 6 c2 s 2 + s 4 6 c2 s 2 i4cs3 + s4 Now s2 = 1 c2 ; ) cos 4 = c4 6 c2 1 cos 4 = 8 cos4 c2 + 1 c2 2 = 8 c4 8 cos2 + 1: 8c2 + 1 ) Example 3 Find the square roots of 1 ; i.e. solve z 2 = has a modulus of one and argument ; so 1: The complex number 1 = cos ( + 2k ) + i sin ( + 2k ) : Hence, ( 1)1=2 = (cos ( + 2k ) + i sin ( + 2k ))1=2 + 2k + 2k + i sin = cos 2 2 1 for k = 0; 1 : ( 1)1=2 = cos 2 + i sin 2 =0+i 3 3 = cos + i sin =0 i ( 1) 2 2 Therefore the square roots of 1 are z0 = i and z1 = i: 1=2 Example 4 Find the …fth roots of 1 ; i.e. solve z 5 = a modulus of one and argument ; so 1: The complex number ( 1)1=5 = (cos ( + 2k ) + i sin ( + 2k ))1=5 + 2k + 2k = cos + i sin 5 5 1 has for k = 0; 1; 2; 3; 4 : z0 = cos 5 3 z1 = cos 5 + i sin 5 3 + i sin 5 z2 = cos ( ) + i sin ( ) z3 = cos 7 5 + i sin 7 5 z4 = cos 9 5 + i sin 9 5 Example 5 Find all z 2 C such that z 3 = 1 + i: So we wish to …nd the cube roots of (1 + i) : The argument of this complex number is = arctan 1 = =4: The modulus of (1 + i) is r = as p 2: We can express (1 + i) compactly in r exp (i ) 1+i= p 2 exp i 4 So (1 + i) 1=3 = 21=6 exp (8k + 1) i 12 for k = 0; 1; 2: z0 = 21=6 exp i 12 z1 = 9 1=6 2 exp i z2 = 17 1=6 2 exp i 12 12 ! Example 6: We can apply Euler’s formula to integral problems. Consider the earlier example Z ex cos xdx which was simpli…ed using the integration by parts method. We know Re ei = cos ; so the above becomes Z ex Re eixdx = Z 1 e(i+1)x Re e(i+1)xdx = Re 1+i ix 1 1 i = ex Re 1+i e eix = ex Re (1+i)(1 i) = 21 ex Re (1 i) eix = 12 ex Re eix ieix = = 1 ex Re (cos x + i sin x 2 1 ex (cos x + sin x) 2 i cos x + sin x) Exercise: Repeat this method of working for evaluating Z ex sin xdx Functions Polynomial Functions: A polynomial function of z has the form f (z ) = a 0 + a 1 z + a 2 z 2 + O z 3 = 1 X an z n n=0 and is of degree n: The domain is the set C of all complex numbers: So for example a 3rd degree polynomial is 2 z + a2z 2 + 3z 3: Rational Functions: A rational function has the form R (z ) = P1 (z ) P2 (z ) where P1; P2 are polynomials. The domain is the set C zeroes of P2 (z ). For example 2z + 3 2z + 3 f (z ) = 2 = z 3z + 2 (z 1) (z 2) and domain is C f 1; 2g : Power Series: exp ( z ) = 1 1 z + z2 2! 1 n X 1 3 nz z + ::::: = ( 1) 3! n! n=0 1 X 1 3 1 5 z 2n+1 sinh z = z + z + z + ::::: = 3! 5! n=0 (2n + 1)! 1 X 1 4 1 2 z 2n cosh z = 1 + z + z + ::::: = 2! 4! n=0 (2n)! sin z = z 1 3 1 5 z + z 3! 5! cos z = 1 1 2 1 4 z + z 2! 4! 1 X z 2n+1 ::::: = ( 1) (2n + 1)! n=0 1 2n X n z ::::: = ( 1) (2n)! n=0 n Functions of a Complex Variable A rule which assigns to every complex number z = x + iy = rei in some region D; a unique complex number w = u + iv = ei : w is called a function of a complex variable. So w = f (z ) = u (x; y ) + iv (x; y ) So we see that Re w = u (x; y ) Im w = v (x; y ) e.g. w = z2 = (x + iy )2 = x2 y 2 + 2xyi Here u (x; y ) = x2 y 2 v (x; y ) = 2xy Note @u @v = 2x = @x @y @u @v = 2y = @y @x Exponential Function: w = f (z ) = ez = ex+iy = exeiy Re ez : u (x; y ) = ex cos y Im ez : v (x; y ) = ex sin y jexp zj = ex and y is the argument. Logarithmic Function: If ew = z we say w is a logarithm and we write w = Logz which is not unique, for suppose w = Logz = u + iv or eu+iv = z eueiv = z eu (cos v + i sin v ) = z therefore eu = jzj =) u = ln jzj and v = arg z + 2n Thus we can write Logz = ln jzj + i (arg z + 2n ) Logz has in…nitely many vales. If we take the principal value of arg z then the corresponding value of Logz is called the principal value of Logz and written log z where log z = ln jzj + i arg z and log z is now a function. Example: z = p 1+i 3 jzj = 2; arg z = arctan p 3 = 3 = 2 3 hence 2 Logz = ln j2j + i + 2n 3 2 log z = ln j2j + i 3 ; n2Z Power Series We de…ne a power series in (z a 0 + a 1 (z a ) + a 2 (z a) or about z = a as 2 a) + :::::: + an (z n a) + ::: = 1 X a n (z a )n n=0 This in…nite series converges for z = a (plus other points). 9 R 2 Q+ s.t. R: 1 X a n (z n=0 The special case jz a)n converges jz aj < R and diverges jz aj = R may or may not converge. (y) aj > z=a R Γ (y) will converge at all points in and diverge everywhere outside : On do not know (needs additional work). The special cases R = a and R = 1 correspond in turn to R = a corresponds to converges at z = a only R = 1 corresponds to converges 8 …nite values of z R radius of convergence circle of convergence we Various Tests Absolute Convergence If 1 X n=1 junj converges then 1 X un converges n=1 Comparison Test: If 1 X n=1 If 1 X n=1 jvnj converges and junj jvnj diverges and junj or may not converge. jvnj then jvnj then 1 X un converges absolutely. n=1 1 X n=1 junj diverges but 1 X n=1 un may Ratio Test: If un+1 =L n!1 un lim then 1 X un n=1 p series Test: 8 > < converges (absolutely) L < 1 diverges L>1 > : test fails L=1 1 X 1 converges for any constant p > 1 and diverges for p p n=1 n 1: Example 1: Show that 1 X zn n=1 n (n + 1) converges absolutely for jzj If jzj 1: 1 then zn n (n + 1) 1 jz nj = n (n + 1) n (n + 1) 1 n2 and by the p series test for p = 2 we know that it converges, hence comparison test implies convergence. Let’s re-do but using the Ratio test un+1 n!1 un lim where zn z n+1 un = ; un+1 = n (n + 1) (n + 1) (n + 2) so un+1 n!1 un lim = = = z n+1 (n+1)(n+2) lim zn n!1 n(n+1) z n+1 n lim n!1 n + 2 z n n jzj n!1 n + 2 |{z} | {z } lim <1 < 1 so we have convergence by the Ratio test. 1 Example 2: Calculate the radius of convergence of 1 X (z + 2)n 1 3 n n=1 4 (n + 1) For z = 2 this converges. Use the Ratio test with un = un+1 lim n!1 un (z+2)n 1 ; 4n(n+1)3 = = lim n!1 un+1 = (z+2)n 4n+1 (n+2)3 (z+2)n 4n+1 (n+2)3 (z+2)n 1 4n(n+1)3 n+1 3 z +2 n!1 n + 2 4 8 > < 1 abs cgce jz + 2j < = 1 test fails 4 > : > 1 diverges lim Therefore jz + 2j < 4 gives R = 4; which is the region of convergence. Circle centred at ( 2; 0) and radius 4: We also see that z = 2 is included in jz + 2j < 4: What about the boundary of the circle jz + 2j = 4? The Ratio test does not assist here. So try the Comparison Test look at (z + 2)n 1 4n (n + 1)3 the numerator becomes, using jz + 2j = 4; 4n 1 4n 1 1 = 4n (n + 1)3 4 (n + 1)3 which converges (from comparison test for p = 3): 1 n3 So the series is absolutely convergent for jz + 2j centre 2 and radius 4; including the boundary. 4; i.e. region of circle Di¤erentiation in The Complex Plane Recall that for a real variable df f (x + x) f (x) = lim : x !0 dx x For functions of complex variables there are an in…nite number of paths along which z ! 0 and so as many values of f (z + z ) z !0 z f 0 (z ) = lim are possible. f (z ) If all these limits are the same we say that f (z ) is di¤erentiable and the derivative is the value of the limit. So in other words if the derivative exists it must be independent of the way in which z tends to zero. Another de…nition for f 0 (z ) at the point z0 is f 0 (z f (z ) 0 ) = z lim !z0 z f (z0 ) : z0 Holomorphic Functions Consider a region U. If the derivative f 0 (z ) exists at all points in U then the function is said to be Holomorphic in U. This is a relatively new term, some of the older books use the synonyms regular and analytic. We then write f (z ) 2 H (U) : A function f (z ) is said to be holomorphic at a point z0 if 9 a neighbourhood jz at all points of which f 0 (z ) exists. z0 j < If a function is holomorphic everywhere we simply say f (z ) is a holomorphic function, i.e. f (z ) 2 H (C) : Example: Show that f (z ) = z is not di¤erentiable at any point. z = x + iy and z = x + i y then z + z = (x + x) + i (y + y ) : f 0 (z ) = = = Now consider the limits. f (z + z ) f (z ) lim z !0 z (z + z ) z lim z !0 z x i y lim z !0 x + i y First let y ! 0 and then x ! 0 x x i y = lim =1 lim x !0 x z !0 x + i y now x ! 0 and then y ! 0 x i y i y = lim = z !0 x + i y x !0 i y lim 1 as the results di¤er f (z ) = z is not di¤erentiable at any point. A point at which f (z ) is not di¤erentiable is called a singularity ; or a singular point of f (z ) : As we cannot test all the paths as z ! 0; this provides us with a way to establish non-di¤erentiability - by simply …nding two paths which give di¤erent limits. Example: Prove (using the de…nition) that 8 < x3(1+i) y 3(1 i) x2 +y 2 f (z ) = : 0 z 6= 0 z=0 is not holomorphic at z = 0: f (z) f (z0 ) ; which becomes Let’s use the de…nition f 0 (z0) = lim z z0 z !z0 f (z ) z !0 z f 0 (0) = lim f (0) 0 lim x3 (1 + i) z !0 y 3 (1 i) x2 + y 2 (x + iy ) Let z ! 0 along the line y = mx and examine the limit x3 (1 + i) m3x3 (1 i) x2 + m2x2 (x + imx) = (1 + i) m3 (1 i) 1 + m2 (1 + im) hence lim x !0 (1 + i) m3 (1 i) 1 + m2 (1 + im) has many values depending on m which implies that f 0 (0) does not exist. If f (z ) is a function of z; e.g. z 2; ez ; sin z then di¤erentiate in the normal/real way and the various rules (e.g. product/quotient) apply. Example: If f (z ) = cosecz f 0 (z ) = cos ecz cot z = 1 cos z = sin z sin z cos z sin2 z which has singularities where sin z = 0 () z = n : n 2 Z: As an exercise verify these singularities by solving sin z = 0 for z = x + iy: The Cauchy-Riemann Equations We need a way of showing that a function is di¤erentiable as the de…nition of di¤erentiability is really only useful for establishing non-di¤erentiability. Let z = x + iy ; f (z ) = u (x; y ) + iv (x; y ) : f (z + z ) If f (z ) is di¤erentiable at a given point z then the ratio z 0 f (z ) no matter how z ! 0 f (z ) u(x+ x;y+ y)+iv(x+ x;y+ y) u(x;y) iv(x;y) : x+i y z !0 f 0 (z ) = lim We consider this in two steps: ! 1. Let z ! 0 horizontally i.e. y = 0 and x ! 0 f 0 (z ) = = u(x+ x;y)+iv(x+ x;y) u(x;y) iv(x;y) x x !0 u(x+ x;y) u(x;y) v(x+ x;y) v(x;y) lim + i x x x !0 lim @v @u +i : = @x @x 2. Let z ! 0 vertically i.e. x = 0 and y ! 0 f 0 (z ) = = = u(x;y+ y)+iv(x;y+ y) u(x;y) iv(x;y) i y y !0 lim lim y !0 1 @u i @y 1 u(x;y+ y) u(x;y) i y @v + = @y @u @v i + @y @y + v(x;y+ y) v(x;y) y If f 0 (z ) exists these two limits must be equal and hence @u @v +i = @x @x i @u @v + @y @y equating real and imaginary parts (in turn) gives @v @u = @x @y @u @v = @y @x These are the Cauchy-Riemann Equations. They are necessary for di¤erentiability but not su¢ cient, i.e. if C-R equations are satis…ed, f (z ) may or may not be di¤erentiable. We can say with certainty that if the conditions are not satis…ed then the function is non-di¤erentiable. Example: Show that the functions x u= 2 ; v= x + y2 y x2 + y 2 satisfy the Cauchy-Riemann equations everywhere except at (0; 0) : This can be done simply by verifying @v @u = @x @y @v @u = @y @x for the given u (x; y ) and v (x; y ) : y2 x2 @v 2xy = 2 @x 2 2 x +y @u = @x x2 + y 2 @u = @y @v y 2 x2 ; = 2 2 @y x2 + y 2 x2 + y 2 2xy ; 2 so C-R equations are satis…ed. The partial derivatives are continuous everywhere except at (0; 0) ; where they do not exist. f (z ) = u + iv x y = 2 +i 2 x + y2 x + y2 1 = (x iy ) 2 x2 + y 2 further simpli…cation gives f (z ) = 1 2 jzj 1 = z zz 1 = z z A function (x; y ) is called harmonic if it satis…es Laplace’s Equation @2 @2 + =0 2 2 @x @y The real and imaginary parts of a Holomorphic function satisfy Laplace’s Equation. This is very easy to verify, for if f (z ) = u + iv 2 H (C) then the C-R equations are satis…ed. @u @v = @x @y @u @v = @y @x (1) (2) and we can di¤erentiate these partially. Di¤erentiate (1) w.r.t x; and (2) w.r.t y @ 2u @ 2v = @x2 @x@y @ 2u = @y 2 @ 2v @y@x (3) (4) (3) + (4) gives @ 2u @ 2u + =0 2 2 @x @y Similarly di¤erentiating (1) and (2) wrt to y and x respectively gives @ 2v @ 2v + =0 @x2 @y 2 So we see that both real and parts of a holomorphic function are harmonic. They are sometimes called harmonic conjugates. Given one harmonic function we can use the C-R equations to …nd a conjugate harmonic function. Consider the following u (x; y ) = ex 2 y 2 sin 2xy does this satisfy the PDE above? 2 y2 @u x = 2e (y cos 2xy + x sin 2xy ) @x 2 y2 @ 2u x 2 2+2 + = e sin 2 xy 4 x 4 y @x2 2 2 8xyex y cos 2xy 2 y2 @ 2u x 2 sin 2xy = e 4 x @y 2 so clearly uxx + uyy = 0: 8xy cos 2xy + 4y 2 sin 2xy 2 sin 2xy Complex Integration A complex integral is an integral taken along a curve (contour) in the complex plane. We will denote this by : We base our de…nition of such an integral on real integrals to avoid unnecessary work. Consider …rst the type of curve along which we will integrate. A curve can be written in parametric form if it can be expressed as z = z (t) : a t b where t is a real parameter with initial and …nal points z (a) and z (b) ; in turn. Examples: 1. The circle centre 0; radius r starting and …nishing at the point A (jzj = r) : Positively described means anti-clockwise, z = reit = r (cos t + i sin t) : 0 t 2 2. Semi-circle, centre 0; radius 1 lying in the right hand half of the plane. The initial point is A (z = i) and …nal point B (z = i) z = eit : 2 t 2 3. Circle centre z0 = x0 + iy0 of radius r z = z0 + reit : 0 t 2 4. The positive real axis starting at 0 z=t:0 What about the real axis from 5. The imaginary axis from z = t<1 3 to 2? 2i to z = z = it : 2 5i 5 t 6. The line segment from a + ic to b + ic z = t + ic : a t b There is a useful general method for obtaining this, if we wish to express the line segment from z1 to z2 : z = z1 + t ( z2 z1 ) : 0 t 1 7. The line from a to a + ib z = a + it : 0 8. The line from 1 t 1 is parameterized by z = z (t) : a then b 1 to 1 + 2i z = t + i (1 + t) : If t t b can be expressed as z = z( ): b t a The contour is called closed if z (a) = z (b) ; i.e. the starting point and end point are the same. For example, consider the circle earlier z = eit : 0 t 2 here we see z (0) = z (2 ) = 1 A closed contour which does not cross itself is called a simple closed contour. Integration Along a Contour Let be a contour de…ned by (t) = z (t) : t 2 [a; b] : Let f (z ) be a continuous function on and z 0 (t) is also continuous on ; then Z Simple Example: 1 to i: Evaluate First de…ne Z b dz dt dt a is the …rst quadrant of the unit circle, i.e. centre 0 from f (z ) dz = Z f (z (t)) zdz : z = eit 0 dz = ieit dt t =2 therefore Z zdz = = = Example 2: Let Z =2 0 Z =2 0 ei eitieitdt e2itidt 1 2 = 1 2it =2 = e i 2i 0 1 be the straight line from 1 to 2+ i: Evaluate : z = t + (t dz = 1+i dt 1) i : 1 t 2 Z (1 + 2z ) dz hence Z (1 + 2z ) dz = Z 2 1 1 + 2 (t + ( t = (1 + i) = 3 + 5i If Z Z 2 1 (1 1) i) (1 + i) dt 2i + 2 (1 + i)) dt dz is continuous except at t = c1; c2; :::::; cn we can de…ne dt f (z ) dz = Z c 1 a f (z (t)) dz dt dt + Z c 2 c1 f (z (t)) dz dt dt + :::::: + Z b cn f (z (t)) dz dt dt Example 1: Let be the line from (t) : dz = dt Then Z ( ( 1 to 0 together with the line from 0 to i z=t z = it 1 1 t 0 0 t 1 1 i 0 t<0 t 1 zdz = Z 0 1 = 1 t 1dt + Z 1 0 it idt Example 2: Consider the following parametrization: (t) = Evaluate Z = (t > : (3 t) i t 2 [0; 1] t 2 [1; 2] t 2 [2; 3] 1) i + (2 t) i) (i 1) i + (2 t) i Re (z ) dz = Z 1 0 Z 3 = 8 > < t 2 Z 1 Re (t) dt + Re ((3 t dt + 0 1 t2 2 0 + (i Z 2 1 Re ((t t) i) ( i) dt Z 2 1 (2 1) 2t t) (i 1) dt + ! 2 2 t 2 1 = i 2 1 Z 3 2 0 dt 1) dt + Properties of the Integral Z As an example consider Z (t) Z f (z ) dz = z dz where : f (z ) dz is the straight line from 0 to 1 + i z = t + it 0 1 t z0 = 1 + i Z z dz = Z 1 (t + it) (1 + i) dt t it 0 = i Now consider (t) : z = 1 t 0 Z z dz = = If Z 0 Z1 ( t it) ( 1 i) dt = i z dz has initial and …nal point z1 and z2; in turn and if f (z ) = dF dz on Z Z dF f (z ) dz = dz dz = F ( z2 ) F (z1 ) for suppose : z = z (t) a t b; i.e. z1 = z (a) & z2 = z (b) then Z Z dF f (z ) dz = dz dz Z b dF (z (t)) dz = dt dz dt a = F (z (t))jba = F (z (b)) F (z (a)) = F (z2 ) F (z1 ) then Note: 1. If z2 = z1; i.e. 0 is a closed contour then Z f (z ) dz = F (z1) F (z1) = 2. These results mean that if f (z ) can be integrated directly then we do not need to parameterize : Example 1: Then Z is the circular contour joining 1 to i: z3 2 z dz = 3 i z3 = 3 1 1 (1 + i) : 3 Note that this answer only depends on the initial and …nal points of ; not on itself. Example 2: Let be the line from 1 to 2 + i Z (1 + 2z ) dz = z + z 2 = z + z2 2+i 1 = 5i + 3 Cauchy’s Theorem If is any closed contour and if f (z ) is di¤erentiable inside and on Z then f (z ) dz = 0 There are many versions of this theorem which make di¤erent assumptions about the contour : As an example, a polynomial P (z ) is di¤erentiable everywhere. The exponential, circular and hyperbolic functions are holomorphic on C: Therefore given a closed contour Z P (z ) dz = Z ez dz = Z sin zdz = ::::::: = e.g. if C is the unit circle jzj = 1 then Z C z 2 + 6z 3 dz = 0: Z cosh zdz = 0 A rational function R (z ) = P1 (z ) =P2 (z ) is holomorphic everywhere except R P1 (z ) =P2 (z ) dz = 0 on any closed at the zeroes of P2 (z ) : Therefore contour which does not contain or pass through any zero of P2 (z ) : Corollary to Cauchy’s Theorem If 1 and 2 are any two contours with the same initial and …nal points and if f (z ) is di¤erentiable inside and on 1 2 then Z f (z ) dz = 1 Z f (z ) dz 2 i.e. the integral does not depend on the contour, only on the initial and …nal points. 1 2 is closed now and f (z ) is di¤erentiable inside and on 1 2 (given). Therefore (by Cauchy) Z hence R 1 f (z ) dz = Z f (z ) dz + Z1 R 2 f (z ) dz 1 f (z ) dz: f (z ) dz = 0 Z1 2 f (z ) dz = 0 Z 2 f (z ) dz = 0 2 R dz Example: Evaluate where 2 z +2z+2 in the upper 1/2 plane. is the semi-circle joining 1 and 1 This contour is not closed. How ever by introducing the line segment L which 1 goes from 1 to 1 along the real axis L is now closed. z 2+2z+2 is holomorphic except where z 2 + 2z + 2 = 0; i.e. z = outside L: It follows by the Corollary to Cauchy’s Theorem that Z dz z2 + 2z + 2 = Z dz L z2 + 2z + 2 So we solve along L by parameterizing: L : z (t) = t; 1 t 1 1 i; which lies Z dz = 2 z + 2z + 2 = Z 1 dt 1 t2 + 2t + 2 Z 1 dt 1 (t + 1)2 Use a substitution u = t + 1; which gives Z 2 du 1u 2 = tan 0 0 u2 + 1 = tan 1 2 +1 2 Example: By integrating e z around the rectangle with sides y = 0; y = b; R dz x = R; z 2+2z+2 where is the semi-circle joining 1 and 1 in the upper 1/2 plane. This contour is not closed. How ever by introducing the line segment L which 1 goes from 1 to 1 along the real axis L is now closed. z 2+2z+2 is holomorphic except where z 2 + 2z + 2 = 0; i.e. z = outside L: It follows by the Corollary to Cauchy’s Theorem that Z dz z2 + 2z + 2 = Z dz L z2 + 2z + 2 So we solve along L by parameterizing: L : z (t) = t; 1 t 1 1 i; which lies Z dz = 2 z + 2z + 2 = Z 1 dt 1 t2 + 2t + 2 Z 1 dt 1 (t + 1)2 Use a substitution u = t + 1; which gives Z 2 du 1u 2 = tan 0 0 u2 + 1 = tan 1 2 +1 An Extension of Cauchy’s Theorem When there is a simple type of singularity of f (z ) on C; let f (z ) be regular in and on C except for a single singularity at z = a which is on C . With centre z = a and radius draw an arc of a circle to indent the contour C at a forming a new contour : Since f (z ) is holomorphic in and on so by Cauchy’s Theorem Let !0 Z Z C f (z ) dz = 0 f (z ) dz + lim Z !0 indent f (z ) dz = 0 Cauchy’s Integral Formula The following important result is due to Cauchy, and is also a Theorem. Let C be a simple closed contour and suppose that f is holomorphic in and on C: If z = is a point inside C then I 1 f (z ) f( )= dz; 2 i Cz the integral being taken in the positive (anti-clockwise) sense. It is possible to deduce from Cauchy’s integral formula that f is di¤erentiable at and that the derivative of f to all orders n; can be computed by formally di¤erentiating with respect to z under the integral sign. Thus I n! f (z ) f (n) ( ) = dz n 2 N n+1 2 i C (z ) Now for some examples. Example 1 I ez Evaluate dz , where C z C : z ( ) = ei ; 0 2 by using Cauchy’s integral formula. Let f (z ) = ez : Then f is a holomorphic function we may apply Cauchy’s integral formula in the form I 1 f (z ) f (0) = dz 2 i Cz 0 It follows that I ez dz = 2 i C z Example 2 Evaluate I 1 f (z ) 1 = 2 i Cz 0 I C (z ez 1) (z 3) dz taken round the circle C given by jzj = 2 in the positive (anti-clockwise) sense. What is the value of the integral taken around the circle jzj = 1=2 in the positive sense? Put f (z ) = ez = (z 3) Then f is holomorphic in a domain which contains the circle jzj = 2 and its interior (but not, of course, the point z = 3). Cauchy’s integral formula is applicable and we have I I 1 1 f (z ) ez = (z 3) f (1) = dz = dz 2 i C (z 1) 2 i C (z 1) where f (1) = e=2 We conclude that I C (z ez 1) (z 3) dz = 2 if (1) = ei By Cauchy’s theorem the integral taken round the circle jzj = 1=2 in the positive sense is zero because the integrand is holomorphic in a domain which contains the circle and its interior. Taylor’s Theorem If f (z ) be holomorphic in the a neighbourhood of z = a then it has a power series expansion f (z ) = 1 X a n (z a )n 0 with a non-zero radius of convergence R: Example: Expand f (z ) = (z 1 1) (z 2) about the origin and the point at in…nity. 1. About z = 0: f (z ) has singularities at z = 1; 2: Since z = 0 is a regular point there is a Taylor expansion about z = 0 of the form 1 X 0 an z n convergent for jzj < 1 (z 1 1) (z 1 2) 1 = 1 + 1 2 (1 z=2) (1 z ) 2) (z 1) 1 1 1 1 1X z n X + + zn = = 2 (1 z=2) 1 z 2 0 2 0 1 X 1 n = 1 z 2n+1 0 (z 1 X (n) (0) f : We know from above Or Note f (z ) = anz n where an = n ! 0 that f (z ) = (z 1 2) f 0 (z ) = f 000 (z ) = 1 (z 1) 1 (z 2 + 4 + 2) 2 3 1 (z 2 1) 3 2 ; 4 ; f 00 (z ) = f (z ) = (z 2)3 (z (z 2) (z 1) n n+1 n ! n! ( 1) ( 1) (n) f + ! (z ) = n+1 n+1 (z 2) (z 1) f (n) (0) 1 (n) ) f (0) = n! 1 =1 2n+1 n! About z = point at in…nity: 1 1) (z 2 2 1 2n+1 : 2) z is point at in…nity =) z1 = 0 so let t = 1=z , so f (t) = 1 t 1 1 1 1 t 2 = (1 t2 t) (1 2t) (z 1)3 t = 0 is a regular point therefore we can expand in a Taylor series valid for jtj < 1=2: t2 3t=2 1=2 1 f (t) = = + 2 (1 t) (1 2t) (1 t) (1 2t) 1 1 1 + = 2 1 t 2 (1 2t) 1 1 1 1 X 1 X 1X n n = t + (2t) = + 2n 1 2 2 0 2 0 0 = 1 X 1 2n 1 1 tn = 1 X 1 To expand f (z ) about z = 3 put t = z (about t = 0) : 2n 1 1 1 tn 1 jzj > 2 n z 3 and expand in powers of t Laurent’s Theorem Let f (z ) be holomorphic in the annulus b < jz series expansion I 1 X An (z aj < c then it has a power a )n 1 1 f (z ) Here An = dz: C is any circle jz aj = R where b < 2 i C (z a)n+1 R < c and the expansion is valid for any z in the annulus. The Nature of Singularities If f (z ) has an isolated singularity at z = a then by Laurent’s theorem f (z ) = b1 (z a) + b2 (z bn + ::::: + n + a 0 + a 1 (z 2 (z a ) a) a) + :::: If there is no singularity at z = a then by Taylor’s Theorem f (z ) = 1 X An (z a )n 0 Hence 1 X 1 br (z a) r has been produced by the singularity . We call this part of the expansion the Principal Part (PP) or Laurent Part. We de…ne the type of singularity according to the shape of the principal part:- a) If the PP has an in…nite number of terms, we say that f (z ) has an Isolated Essential Singularity (IES) at z = a. b) If the PP has a …nite number of terms we say that f (z ) has a pole at 1 z = a. The ORDER of the pole equals the highest power of which z a occurs. Example: 1. If f (z ) = 6 (z | + 6 2) (z 3 {z PP + 2 (z 2) f (z ) has a 6th order pole at z = 2: 1 2) } + 4 + 2 (z 2)2 + ::: 2. ez z2 z3 1 1+z+ + + ::: z z 2! 3! 1 z2 z = + ::: +1+ + z 2! 3! |{z} f (z ) = = ! PP First order pole - also called simple pole at z = 0: We can also examine the point at in…nity. Put t = 1=z to get 1 1 1 = t 1+ + + + ::: 2 3 t 2!t 3!t 1 1 + + ::: = t+1+ 2 2!t 3!t PP has an in…nite number of terms there IES at t = 0 i.e. z = point at in…nity. te1=t 3. So put t = z ez f (z ) = at z = 1 z 1 expand in powers of t: et+1 = e (1 + t) 1 et t+1 t + t2 = e 1 t3 + ::: 1+t+ t2 2! + ::: ! = A0 + A1t + A2t2 + ::: If f (z ) has a pole of order n at z = a f (z ) = b1 (z a) + b2 (z bn + ::::: + n + a 0 + a 1 (z 2 ( z a ) a) In the residue theorem (next) we …nd that the coe¢ cient of a) + :::: 1 i.e. (z a ) b1 is very important. b1 is called the residue (poles only) of f (z ) at z = a: To Find The Residue 1. Use the de…nition of the residue - expand f (z ) in powers of (z 1 pick out the coe¢ cient of : z a (a) For the simple pole f (z ) = (z b1 (z a) + a 0 + a 1 (z a) f (z ) = b1 + a0 + a1 (z b1 = lim (z z!a a ) f (z ) a) + :::: a)2 + :::: a) and (b) For an nth order pole bn b1 + :::: + + a0 + a1 (z a) + :::: n (z a ) (z a ) a)n f (z ) = bn + bn 1 (z a) + ::: + b1 (z a)n 1 + a0 (z a)n + ::: f (z ) = (z Di¤erentiate (n dn 1 ((z n 1 dz Thus 1) times a)n f (z )) = b1 (n b1 = 1 (n 1)!+A0 (z dn 1 lim [(z n 1 z!a 1)! dz a)+A1 (z a)n f (z )] a)2+:::: Examples 1. f (z ) = z= e1=z 2)2 (z + 1) (z 1 is a simple pole residue = lim (z + 1) z! 1 e1=z (z 1 = 2 9e 2) (z + 1) z = 2 is a double pole " d residue = lim (z z!2 dz 2) e1=z 2 (z 2 2) (z + 1) # = 7e1=2 36 Also examine z = 0 by expanding in powers of z 1 1=z z 2 1 f (z ) = e 1 (1 + z ) 4 2 1 1 1 2 = 1+ + + ::: 1 z + z ::: (1 + z::) 2 4 z 2!z Bn B1 = ::: n + :::: + + A0 + A1z + :::: 2 z (z a ) Hence there is an IES at z = 0: 2. f (z ) = = = 1 = 2 z sin z z2 1 z3 1 " 2z 2 1 3z 3 z 3! 4z 4 3! + 5! 2z 2 4z 4 1 1+ 3 z 3! + ::: 5! + 4z 4 3! + ::: # Hence a 3rd order pole at z = 0 and residue = =6: The Residue Theorem If f (z ) is holomorphic in and on a simple closed curve C apart from a number of poles in C then Z C f (z ) dz = 2 i sum of residues of f (z ) at all its poles in C . Example: Show that Z 1 x+3 1 x2 +9 2 dx = 18 Start by constructing a suitable contour. C consists of the straight line from R to R and the semi-circular contour of radius R: Z z+3 C z2 +9 2 dz There are singularities at z = Z 1 x+3 1 x2 +9 Z dx+ lim 2 R !1 0 R ei + 3 R2e2i + 9 3i: Let R ! 1: i d = 2 i residue at 3i i R e 2 Now using the earlier result Z b a f (x) dx Z b a jf (x)j dx we have Z Z 0 0 (R + 3) R R2 9 2 d R 2 + 3R = 2 ! 0 as R ! 1 4 2 R + 81 18R R = Z 1 x+3 1 x2 +9 2 dx = 2 i residue at 3i Residue at 3i = 2 d 6 lim 4(z z!3i dz Z 1 3i) +9 z+3 z2 + 9 x+3 1 x2 2 2 dx = 2 i 3 1 7 = 25 36i 1 = : 36i 18 Stochastic Volatility Models An observation when pricing derivatives is the fact that volatility of an asset price is anything but constant. We have seen in the much celebrated BlackScholes framework that the assumptions do not consider these market features. Volatility does not behave how the Black–Scholes equation would like it to behave; it is not constant, it is not predictable, it’s not even directly observable. Volatility is di¢ cult to forecast - although not impossible. This makes it a prime candidate for modelling as a random (stochastic) variable. There are many economic, empirical, and mathematical reasons for choosing a model with such a form. Empirical studies have shown that an asset’s logreturn distribution is non-Gaussian. It is characterised by heavy tails and high peaks (leptokurtic). There is also empirical evidence and economic arguments that suggest that equity returns and implied volatility are negatively correlated (also termed ‘the leverage e¤ect’). These reasons has been cited as evidence for non-constant volatility. Stochastic volatility models were …rst introduced by Hull and White (1987), Scott (1987) and Wiggins (1987) to overcome the drawbacks of the Black and Scholes (1973) and Merton (1973) model. So it seems plausible to model volatility as a stochastic process. The method gives more parameters to …t, hence popular for calibration purposes. These are systems of bi-variate SDEs. We continue to assume that S satis…es GBM dS = Sdt + SdW1; but we further assume that volatility satis…es an arbitrary SDE d = p(S; ; t)dt + q (S; ; t)dW2: Here both drift and di¤usion are arbitrary, with q (S; ; t) being volatility of the volatility (vol of vol). The two increments dW1 and dW2 have a correlation of EP [dW1dW2] = dt: Here P represents the physical measure. The choice of functions p(S; ; t) and q (S; ; t) is crucial to the evolution of the volatility, and thus to the pricing of derivatives. The value of an option with stochastic volatility is a function of three variables, V (S; ; t). Let’s do the general theory …rst and then think about speci…c forms for p and q: The pricing equation The new stochastic quantity that we are modelling, the volatility, is not a traded asset. So as with the spot rate we cannot hold volatility. Thus, when volatility is stochastic we are faced with the problem of having a source of randomness that cannot be easily hedged away. Because we have two sources of randomness we must hedge our option with two other contracts, one being the underlying asset as usual, but now we also need another option to hedge the volatility risk. We therefore must set up a portfolio containing one option, with value denoted by V (S; ; t), a quantity of the asset and a quantity 1 of another option with value V1(S; ; t). We have =V S 1 V1 The change in this portfolio in a time dt is given by @ 2V @ 2V @ 2V ! @V + 21 2S 2 2 + qS + 12 q 2 2 dt @t @S @S@ @ ! 2 2 2 @ V1 @ V1 @V1 1 2 2 @ V1 2 1 +2 S + 2q + qS dt 1 @t @S 2 @S@ @ 2 @V1 @V dS + 1 @S @S @V @V1 + d : 1 @ @ where a higher dimensional form of Itô has been used on functions of S; and t: d = To eliminate all randomness from the portfolio we must choose @V @S @V1 1 @S = 0; to eliminate the dS terms, which are the sources of randomness, and @V @ @V1 = 0; 1 @ to get rid o¤ d terms. Therefore our choice of delta terms to make the portfolio risk free become 1 = @V @ @V1 @ and @V = @S @V @ @V1 : @V1 @S @ This leaves us with d @ 2V @ 2V @ 2V ! @V 1 2 2 1 2 + S + q + qS dt 2 2 @t 2 @S @S@ 2 @ ! 2 2 2 1 2 @ V1 @ V1 @V1 1 2 2 @ V1 + S + q + qS dt 1 @t 2 @S 2 @S@ 2 @ 2 = r dt = r (V S 1 V1 ) dt; = where we have used arbitrage arguments to set the return on the portfolio equal to the risk-free rate. As it stands this is one equation in the two unknowns V and V1: This contrasts with the earlier Black–Scholes case with one equation in the one unknown - but presents the same type of problem when deriving the bond pricing equation. Collecting all V terms on the left-hand side and all V1 terms on the right-hand side we …nd that @V @t = @V1 @t 2 + 12 2S 2 @@SV2 + + 1 2 S 2 @ 2 V1 2 @S 2 + @ 2 V + 1 q 2 @ 2 V + rS @V qS @S@ 2 @ 2 @S @V @ @ 2 V1 qS @S@ @V1 @ + 1 q 2 @ 2 V1 2 @ 2 rV 1 + rS @V @S rV1 We are lucky that the left-hand side is a functional of V but not V1 and the right-hand side is a function of V1 but not V . Therefore both sides can only be functions of the independent variables, S; and t. So set both sides equal to f (S; ; t) : Thus we have @V 1 2 2 @ 2V + S + 2 @t 2 @S @ 2V 1 2 @ 2V @V Sq + q + rS 2 @S@ 2 @ @S rV = (p @V q) ; @ for some function (S; ; t) : Reordering this equation, we usually write @V 1 2 2 @ 2V 1 2 @ 2V @V @ 2V @V + S + q +( p q ) rV = 0: + Sq + rS 2 2 @t 2 @S @S@ 2 @ @S @ The function (S; ; t) is called the market price of (volatility ) risk. The market price of volatility risk If we can solve the pricing equation on the previous slide then we have found the value of the option, and the hedge ratios. @V : But note that we …nd two hedge ratios, @V and @S @ We have two hedge ratios because we have two sources of randomness that we must hedge away. Because one of the modelled quantities, the volatility, is not traded we …nd that the pricing equation contains a market price of risk term. What does this term mean? Let’s see what happens if we only hedge to remove the stock risk. Suppose we hold one of the option with value V , and satisfying the pricing equation, delta hedged with the underlying asset only i.e. we have =V S: The change in this portfolio value is d = @ 2V @ 2V @ 2V @V 1 2 2 1 2 + S + qS + q 2 @t 2 @S @S@ 2 @ 2 @V @V + dS + d : @S @ ! dt Because we are delta hedging the coe¢ cient of dS is zero, leaving d = @ 2V @V 1 2 2 + S + 2 @t 2 @S qS @ 2V @ 2V 1 + q2 2 @S@ 2 @ ! dt + @V d : @ Now from the pricing PDE we have @V 1 2 2 @ 2V + S + 2 @t 2 @S We …nd that 1 2 @ 2V @ 2V + q Sq = 2 @S@ 2 @ d @V rS @S r dt = @V (p q) + rV dt + @V @ d @ @V @V = (p q) dt + (pdt + qdW2) @ @ Now simplifying this last term gives @V rS @S q (p @V q) + rV: @ @V @V dt + qdW2 @ @ r V @V S dt @S Observe that for every unit of volatility risk, represented by dW2, there are units of extra return, represented by dt. Hence the name ‘market price of risk.’ The return on this partially hedged portfolio in excess of the risk-free return is @V q ( dt + dW2) @ Returning to the pricing equation 1 2 @ 2V @V @V 1 2 2 @ 2V @ 2V @V + S + q +(p q) rV = 0: + Sq +rS 2 2 @t 2 @S @S@ 2 @ @S @ The quantity p q is called the risk-neutral drift rate of the volatility. Recall that the risk-neutral drift of the underlying asset is r and not . When it comes to pricing derivatives, it is the risk-neutral drift that matters and not the real drift, whether it is the drift of the asset or of the volatility. stochastic volatility: an example for particular value of p; q; The option price is shown for varying stock and volatility. This is a snapshot at a …xed point in time. We notice it looks like a typical European option. Note for larger we have greater curvature (i.e. larger di¤usion). In addition to the model for GBM we have SDE for volatility, where v = 2: The equations look nicer expressed in terms of the variance (important quantity). Many volatility models are of the form dv = A (v ) dt + cv dW2; for some value and mean reverting drift A (v ) ; where the variance v = 2: In the presence of a continuous dividend yield, the earlier PDE can be written as p @V 1 2 @ 2V @ 2V 1 2 @ 2V + vS + vSq + q +(r 2 2 @t 2 @S @S@ 2 @ D) S @V @V +cv @S @ rV = 0: Popular Models GARCH - di¤usion: Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. A commonly used popular discrete time model in econometrics. It can be turned into the continuous time limit of many GARCH-processes by the following SDE dv = (a bv ) dt + cvdW2: The popularity lies in the ease with which the positive valued parameters a; b and c can be estimated, hence allowing the pricing of options. There is a mean reverting drift with speed b and mean rate a=b: c is the vol of vol which sets the scale for the random nature of volatility. In the case a = b = 0; the GARCH di¤usion model reduces to the log-normal process without drift in the Hull and White (1987) model. Given v (0) > 0; v (t) = v (0) e b+ 21 c2 t+cWt Heston: +a Z t 0 e b+ 12 c2 (s t)+c(Wt Ws ) ds: He takes dv = (m v ) dt + p vdW2 Also called the square root model because of the term in the di¤usion - which gives a closed form solution, hence the popularity. This means it is easier to calibrate. Heston takes 6= 0: In this model the the process is proportional to the square root of its level. Must be comfortable with Complex Analysis Methods, as it requires the use of Fourier Transforms. 3/2 model: Pronounced the three-halves model because of the 3=2 power in the di¤usion. dv = v (a bv ) dt + cv 3=2dW2 Again mean reverting - the existence of a Closed-form solution makes it a popular model. But note the mean reverting and volatility parameters are now stochastic. See Alan Lewis’ book on Option valuation under stochastic volatility, where he presents analytical solutions for this model. This does a supposedly better job of calibrating than Heston, although Heston is more popular. Hull & White dv = dt + dW2 v No mean reversion. They take = 0: Note the lognormal structure hence it can grow inde…nitely. Stein & Stein d = ( The model allows mean-reversion but = 0: m) dt + dW2 can become negative. They take Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process: This model is expressed in terms of the log of the variance. Writing y = log x dy = (a by ) dt + cdW2 Already seen the O-U-P interest rate model (looks very similar). This model matches data well. This has a steady state distribution which is lognormal. A closed form solution does not exist so requires numerical treatment. The Heston Model In his model the variance follows a mean-reverting square root process, …rst used by Cox-Ingersoll-Ross in 1985 to capture the dynamics of the spot rate where the mean reversion rate m > 0; and the speed > 0: The vol of vol > 0: p dS = ( D) Sdt + vSdW1; dv = (m v ) dt + p vdW2 Solving problems numerically is simple (FDM or Monte Carlo). In the case of MC take the stock drift as (r D) : In order for the mean-reverting square root dynamics for the variance to remain positive, there are a number of analytical results available. In particular is the Feller condition, i.e. if m 2 then the variance process cannot become negative. If this condition is not satis…ed then the origin is attainable and strongly rejecting so that the variance process may attain zero in …nite time, without spending time at this point. In deriving the PDE for Heston, he takes f (S; v; t) = (m v) + (S; v; t) p v giving the following pricing PDE for the option U (S; v; t) @U 1 2 @ 2U + vS + 2 @t 2 @S (m v) (S; v; t) 1 2 @ 2U @ 2U + v 2+ vS @S@v 2 @v p v @U @U + rS @v @S rU = 0 Consider the pricing of a call option subject to the …nal condition C (S; v; T ) = max (ST E; 0) with the following boundary conditions C (0; v; t) @C lim (S; v; t) S!1 @S @C @C @C + rS + m @t @S @v lim C (S; v; t) v!1 = 0 = 1 = rC = S How to use Heston There are four parameters in the model, speed of mean reversion, level of mean reversion, volatility of volatility, correlation. That is b; a=b; c; respectively. And also potentially a market price of volatility risk parameter. The main four parameters can be chosen by matching data or by calibration. Experience suggests that calibrated parameters are very unstable, and often unreasonable. (For example, the best …t to market prices might result in a correlation of exactly 1:) Consider calibrating. Suppose Parameters Today Next week a= 14 p 487 12 b= 29 c= 0:01 1000 = 0 :6 3 so a somewhat exaggerated sarcastic example, but nevertheless shows that when recalibrating it hasn’t worked - the parameters which were …xed are totally di¤erent! The Heston model with jumps Increasingly popular are stochastic volatility with jumps models (SVJ). Jump models require a parameter to measure probability of a jump (a Poisson process) and a distribution for the jumps. Also have SVJJ - jumps in the stock and jumps in the volatility. Pros: More parameters allow better …tting. The jump component of the model has most impact over short time scales. Therefore use longer-dated options to …t the stochastic volatility parameters and the shorter-dated options to …t the jump component. Cons: Mathematics slightly more complicated (and again we must work in the transform domain). Hedging is even harder when the underlying stock process is potentially discontinuous. People also looking at stochastic correlation models. Whilst there is no such thing as the perfect model, you can always pretend to have the ideal one by introducing more parameters. More parameters means more quantities to calibrate. Case Study: The REGARCH model and its di¤usion limit REGARCH = Range-based Exponential GARCH Although a closed form solution does not exist, a fairly nice model which looks very plausible. ‘Range-based’ refers to the use of the daily range, de…ned as the di¤erence between the highest and lowest log asset price recorded throughout the day, rather than simply the closing prices. ‘Exponential’refers to modelling the logarithm of the variance. Di¤usion limits exist for all GARCH-type of processes. That is, they can be expressed in continuous time using stochastic di¤erential equations. (This is achieved via ‘moment matching.’ The statistical properties of the discrete-time GARCH processes are recreated with the continuous-time SDEs.) REGARCH is another econometrics discrete time model, but can be turned into the following three-factor model: dS = Sdt + 1SdW0 d (log 1) = a1 (log 2 log 1) dt + b1dW1 d (log 2) = a2 (c2 log 2) dt + b2dW2: (a) (b) (c) This is a three-factor (higher dimensional) model, with two volatilities. represents the actual (short term) volatility of the asset returns, which is stochastic. 1 The 2 represents the (longer term) level to which stochastic. 1 reverts, and is itself What are the dynamics of this model? We have the usual GBM random walk for the stock given by (a) which has actual volatility 1. This is short term. Note from (b) that the log of 1 mean reverts to log 2: So rather than being constant, it is ‡uctuating and 1 is chasing that. 2 From (c) we observe that 2 reverts to a constant mean c2: For pricing options we must replace these SDEs with the risk-neutral versions: dS = rSdt + 1SdW0 d (log 1) = a1 (log 2 log 1 b1=a1) dt + b1dW1 d (log 2) = a2 (c2 log 2 b2=a2) dt + b2dW2: The terms represent the market prices of risk. The a and b coe¢ cients and the correlations between the three sources of randomness give this system seven parameters. These parameters are related to the parameters of the original REGARCH model and can be estimated from asset data. Example: let’s look at some parameters. a1 = 56:6; b1 = 1:138; a2 = 2:82; b2 = 0:388; c2 = 0 :) 1:25. ( 1 = 2 = is very rapidly mean reverting to the level of 2. This is a ‘short-term’ volatility. The time scale for mean reversion is about one week. 1 2, the ‘long-term volatility, reverts more slowly, over a period of about six months. a1 is the speed for log 1: The bigger this is, the faster the reversion to log 2: a1dt is non-dimensional therefore a1 has dimensions of 1=time =) 1=a1 has dimensions of time. So a time scale of approximately 1 week, for log 1 to mean revert. b1 b2; volatility of d (log 1) much greater than d (log 2) chasing. which it is 1=a2 is approximately 0:5 years, so it takes log 2 6 months to revert back to its (long term) mean. How do you solve these equations? Monte Carlo: The solutions of the two-factor partial di¤erential equations you get with stochastic volatility models can still be interpreted as ‘the present value of the expected payo¤.’ So all you have to do is to simulate the relevant random walks for the underlying and volatility (risk neutral) many times, calculate the average payo¤ and then present value it. Finite di¤erences: The partial di¤erential equations can still be solved by …nite di¤erences but you will need to work with a three-dimensional grid. Pros and cons of stochastic volatility models Pros: Evidence (and common sense) suggests that volatility changes, possibly randomly More parameters means that calibration can be ‘better’ Cons: As with any incomplete-market model hedging is only possible if you believe in the market price of (volatility) risk Jump Di¤usion Models Introduction Some of the ideal assumptions of the classic Black-Scholes framework continue to be addressed in this chapter. Brownian motion has been the canonical random process driving asset price models. A basic property of Brownian motion is that it has continuous sample paths. It follows a Gaussian distribution whose thin exponentially decaying tails make large changes in the underlying less probable than actually observed in the market. This fact that it often …ts …nancial data very poorly is widely acknowledged. An observation when pricing derivatives is the fact that the underlying ocassionally jumps. The use of processes with jumps have become increasingly popular. Their detailed practice has already been seen in modelling credit events (jumps to default) although given the extreme market moves of 2008, they may well become more common in other asset classes as well. It is important to note how ever that large moves are very rare occurrences. Jump processes have discontinuous sample paths and, therefore, they allow for large sudden moves in the underlying price process. They can also capture skewness and excess kurtosis in price returns. So far, our model for asset prices has been dS = A (S; t) dt + B (S; t) dW with the usual properties E [dW ] = 0 and V [dW ] = dt: As dt ! 0; it gives a continuous realisation of the random walk for S: We cannot always rely on complete markets. In complete markets we can hedge derivatives with the underlying in such a way as to eliminate risk. Most Quant Finance books deal with the Black Scholes model or Binomial Model which are examples of Complete Markets Models. If markets are complete then derivatives are redundant because we can replicate them using the underlying =V S)V = + S The whole purpose of derivatives is that markets are incomplete! In …xed income we model the spot rate r which is random, but we can’t trade it so can’t use it to get rid o¤ risk. This is the idea underpinning derivatives theory, i.e. dynamic/delta hedging. The presence of jumps means we cannot hedge continuously because we need a continuous process with which to hedge. We will use the Poisson Process for modelling jumps. Discontinuous in practice often refers to a move which is signi…cantly large so that we can’t hedge our way through it. The foundations of Mathematical Finance are based upon the idea of continuous hedging - so if stock is not continuous - then we cannot hedge. Equally if we can’t hedge quickly, the asset path may as well be discontinuous. To model a discontinuous realization we need a Poisson process or jump process. This gives the building block for the jump-di¤usion model for an asset price. One simple way to represent jumps is using this Poisson process. This is an example of a counting process. A random process fq (t)gt 0 is called a counting process if q (t) represents the total number of occurrences that have taken place in the interval [0; t] : q (t) is an integer value quantity with q (0) = 0: We will start to build up the theory using this process in conjunction with Brownian motion (Itô calculus). The Poisson process is also used in Credit Modelling. Usual notation to use is dq (t) with the following de…nition dq = ( 1 0 with P = dt with P =1 dt Thus in each interval either dq (t) stays …xed, or it increases by 1: So we think of dq as a Poisson counter. The parameter is called the intensity of the Poisson process. The larger it is, the greater likelihood there is of a jump. The scaling of the probability of a jump with the size of the time step dt is crucial in making the resulting process ‘meaningful,’ i.e. there being a …nite chance of a jump occurring in a …nite time, with q remaining …nite. This is a classic Poisson process. q is the integral of dq q 3 2 1 t This is a typical representation of a counting process. Properties of the Poisson process A counting process q (t) is called a Poisson process with non-negative intensity (or mean arrival rate) of an event in a time interval dt if q (0) = 0; q (t) has independent increments. The number of jumps in a …nite time horizon t has a Poisson distribution with parameter t: Then P [q (t) = n] = exp ( ( t)n ; n = 0; 1; 2; ::: t) n! E [q (t)] = V [q (t)] = t t We can propose the following model for S dS = c (S; t) dq where c (S; t) itself can be unpredictable so that both the size and timing of the jumps is random. However a more sensible and realistic model is to use a jump di¤usion version of Geometric Brownian Motion, i.e. dS = a (S; t) dt + b (S; t) dW + c (S; t) dq: So a model that follows GBM most of the time and every now and again, there is a jump. Since we are interested in the stock return it makes sense to write dS = dt + dW + (J S which is the jump di¤usion model. 1) dq The two basic building blocks of every jump-di¤usion model are the Geometric Brownian motion (the di¤usion part) and the Poisson process (the jump component). We assume that the Brownian motion and Poisson process are uncorrelated. So there are two sources of risk: dW; dq: J is a random number with property E [J ] = 1: Most of the time dq = 0; so we have di¤usion. Occasionally at random intervals there is a contribution from dq when it takes value one and then there is a jump because it is big. When dq = 1 S + dS ! S + (J 1) S = JS So S goes immediately goes to the value JS: Hence dS = JS As an example if J = 0:9 then S S = (J 1) S ! 0:9S; i.e. a 10% fall. So J is a factor which determines what happens to assets when there is a jump. J < 1 =) fall in value J > 1 =) rise in asset J = 0 =) stock falls to zero J can be random with its own distribution. There are a number of parameters here: ; ; ; J: J could follow any distribution with its own set of parameters, so plenty of scope for calibration/data …tting. A convenient form for J is lognormal, so 1 2 J E [log J ] = e 2 V [log J ] = 2J The advantage is that closed form solutions are possible (see Merton’s argument later). Consider the following example. In anticipation of using Itô calculus, we need a framework for extending to Poisson. When dq = 0 we know. 1 2 dt + dW 2 If dq = 1, S ! JS; so in addition to the expression above we have log S log (JS ) = log S + log J: d (log S ) = ! So when dq = 1 we have d (log S ) = usual Itô terms plus log J; which can be written compactly as 1 2 d (log S ) = dt + dW + (log J ) dq; 2 when dq = 1; we "switch on" the jumps. Hedging options when there are jumps Now start building up a theory of derivatives in the presence of jumps. Usual construction of a portfolio by holding the option and (in the usual way): = V (S; t) of the asset S: Across a time step dt the change is d = @ 2V ! 1 2 2 @V @V + S dt + @t 2 @S 2 @S + (V (JS; t) V (S; t) (J ( Sdt + SdW ) 1) S ) dq: Again, this is a jump-di¤usion version of Itô. How do we get the second line in the expression above? Before jump: V (S; t) S: After jump: V (JS; t) JS; because S has jumped to JS: So jump in portfolio is V (JS; t) S (1 J ) : JS V (S; t)+ S = (V (JS; t) V (S; t))+ That is, the jump in the portfolio equals the jump in option price and jump in stock. The risk sources here are dW; dq and potentially J . Yet we only have one delta term with which to hedge. Hence Incomplete Markets. If there is no jump at time t so that dq = 0, then we could have chosen = @V =@S to eliminate the risk. If there is a jump and dq = 1 then the portfolio changes in value by an O(1) amount, that cannot be hedged away. In that case perhaps we should choose to minimize the variance of d . This presents us with a dilemma. We don’t know whether to hedge the small(ish) di¤usive changes in the underlying which are always present, or the large moves which happen rarely. Let us pursue both of these possibilities. Hedging the di¤usion If we choose @V @S we are following a Black-Scholes type of strategy, hedging away the di¤usive movements. = The change in the portfolio value is then d = @ 2V 1 2 2 @V + S @t 2 @S 2 ! dt + @V dq: @S The portfolio now evolves in a deterministic fashion, except that every so often there is a non-deterministic jump in its value. V (JS; t) V (S; t) (J 1) S Merton’s Approach One classic approach is Merton’s 1976 model who argued that if the jump component of the asset price process is uncorrelated with the market as a whole, then the risk in the discontinuity should not be priced into the option as it is diversi…able (there is no excess reward for it). In other words non systematic risk is not rewarded on average, so E [d ] = r dt: Recall since there is uncertainty present there should be some compensation for taking risk. Merton argued that if the dW is eliminated then there should be no compensation for the dq component: In other words, we can take expectations of this expression and set that value equal to the risk-free return from the portfolio E [d ] = r dt; where E [() dq ] = E [()j jump occurs dq ] : dt + E [()j no jump dq ] : (1 @V 1 2 2 @ 2V @V + S + rS @t 2 @S 2 @S E [V (JS; t) = 0; V (S; t)] dt) rV + @V S E [J @S 1] where E [ ] is the expectation taken over the jump size J; which can also be written E [X ] = Z xp (J ) dJ; where p (J ) is the pdf for the jump size. The equation is of the form LBS (V ) + Z 1 0 V (JS; t) V (S; t) p (J ) dJ = 0; i.e. a PIDE (partial integro-di¤erential equation). If J is known then just drop the E [ ] : So the original Black Scholes terms plus a new part. As an example E [V (JS; t)] = Z 1 0 V (JS; t) p (J ) dJ: V now depends on all stocks when there are jumps between 0 and 1: Aside: Are we working with real or risk-neutral expectations? At the moment real (Merton’s argument), but later we’ll look at the concept of risk neutrality when there are jumps. This is a pricing equation for an option when there are jumps in the underlying. The important point to note about this equation that makes it di¤erent from others we have derived is its non-local nature. That is, the equation links together option values at distant S values, instead of just containing local derivatives. Naturally, the value of an option here and now depends on the prices to which it can instantaneously jump. There is a simple closed-form solution of this equation in a special case. That special case if when J is lognormally distributed. i.e. the logarithm of J is Normally distributed. To solve put S log = x E J = e y which gives PDE + Z 1 1 V (x y; t) f (y; t) dy = 0: Solve this using a Fourier Transform in x: If the logarithm of J is Normally distributed with standard deviation and ‘mean’k = E[J 1] then the price of a European non-path-dependent option can be written as 1 X where e 0 (T t) 0 (T t) n n! {z } n=0 | = Probability of getting n jumps VBS (S; t; n; rn) ; n 02 n log (1 + k) = (1 + k) ; = + and rn = r k+ ; T t T t and VBS is the Black-Scholes formula for the option value in the absence of jumps. 0 2 n 2 So it is a Black-Scholes pricing formula for 0; 1; 2; :::::: jumps. This formula can be interpreted as the sum of individual Black–Scholes values each of which assumes that there have been n jumps, and they are weighted according to the probability that there will have been n jumps before expiry. There are 3 parameters we could calibrate. Method 2: Hedging the jumps In the above we hedged the di¤usive element of the random walk for the underlying. Another possibility is to hedge both the di¤usion and jumps ‘together.’ For example, we could choose to minimize the variance of the hedged portfolio, after all, this is ultimately what hedging is about. So let’s return to the d equation. The change in the value of the portfolio with an arbitrary (ignoring higher order terms), d @V = @S +( is, to leading order ( Sdt + SdW ) (J 1) S + V (JS; t) V (S; t)) dq + ::: Square this term and take expectations, then subtract o¤ the square of E [d ] : The variance in this change, which is a measure of the risk in the portfolio, is @V V [d ] = @S h + E ( 2 2 S 2 dt + (J 1) S + V (JS; t) V (S; t)) 2 i dt + ::: which is to leading order (2 terms) - a di¤usive part and a jump component. Putting = @V @S only eliminates the di¤usive part, not the jumps. This is minimized by the choice = E [(J This is obtained as follows: 1) (V (JS; t) h S E (J V (S; t))] + 2S @V @S : i 1)2 + 2S @ (V [d ]) = 0 @ which gives When hedge. for the minimum. This choice of gives the least variance. = @V @S ; the usual Black-Scholes = 0; the expression collapses to If we value the options as a pure discounted real expectation under this besthedge strategy then we …nd that @ 2V 2 @V 1 2 2 @V + S + S @t 2 @S 2 @S + E V (JS; t) ( + k d J 1 ( + k d V (S; t) 1 = 0 where h d = E (J Note how this choice brings in : 1) 2 i + 2: r) ! r) rV Here we are not getting rid of dW; but minimizing risk so we are still left with so need to measure this term. Often happens when moving away from Complete Markets. What about risk neutrality? Does the concept of risk neutrality have any role when there are jumps? N.B. The above uses ‘real’expectations. Let’s see a special case, known jump size, J . So start with dS = Sdt + SdW + (J 1) Sdq: but with J given. There are now two sources of risk (there were three before), dW and dq . (No J risk) Let’s see if we can eliminate risk by having two hedging instruments, the stock and another option. (You will recall this from the stochastic interest rate lecture and will see it again in stochastic volatility modelling.) Construct a portfolio of the option and option, V1 : = V (S; t) of the asset, and S 1 V1 1 of another Doing Itô’s Lemma gives the change in the portfolio as d = + (V (JS; t) @ 2V 2 2 S 2 @ V1 @S 2 @V 1 2 2 @V1 1 + S + 1 2 @t 2 @S @t 2 @V1 @V + ( Sdt + SdW ) 1 @S @S V (S; t) (J 1) S To eliminate dW terms choose @V @S and to eliminate dq terms choose V (JS; t) V (S; t) (J 1 (V1 (JS; t) 1 = (J dt V1 (S; t))) dq @V1 =0 1 @S 1) S 1 (V1 (JS; t) V1 (S; t)) = 0: We obtain the messy expressions (J !! 1) S @V @S V (JS; t) + V (S; t) 1 1) S @V @S V1 (JS; t) + V1 (S; t) and = @V @S (J @V1 @S (J 1) S @V @S V (JS; t) + V (S; t) 1 1) S @V @S V1 (JS; t) + V1 (S; t) : All risk is now eliminated, so set return on portfolio equal to risk-free rate. End result: @V @t (J = @V1 @t (J 2 + 12 2S 2 @@SV2 + rS @V rV @S V (JS; t) + V (S; t) 1) S @V @S @ 2 V1 1 2 2 1 + 2 S @S 2 + rS @V rV1 @S : @V1 1) S @S V1 (JS; t) + V1 (S; t) Same functional form on each side. So one equation in two unknowns . LHS is independent of V1; RHS is inde- pendent of V: @V @t (J = 2V 1 @ 2 2 + 2 S @S 2 + rS @V rV @S 1) S @V V (JS; t) + V (S; t) @S universal quantity, independent of option type 0: = Final equation is @V 1 2 2 @ 2V @V + S + rS @t 2 @S 2 @S + 0 V (JS; t) V (S; t) rV (J @V 1) S @S = 0: This is the same equation as before but with risk-neutral 0 instead of real . How do you solve these equations? Monte Carlo: The solutions of the partial integro-di¤erential equations you get with jump-di¤usion models can still be interpreted as ‘the present value of the expected payo¤.’ So all you have to do is to simulate the relevant random walk for the underlying (risk neutral) many times, calculate the average payo¤ and then present value it. As always! Finite di¤erences: The partial integro-di¤erential equations can still be solved by …nite di¤erences but the method will no longer be ‘local’since the governing equation contains integrations over all asset prices. Pros and cons of jump-di¤usion models Pros: Evidence (and common sense) suggests that assets can jump in value Jump models can capture extreme implied volatility skews (such as seen close to expiration) More parameters means that calibration can be ‘better’ Cons: The foundations are a bit shaky (can’t hedge, hedge di¤usion or minimize risk, real versus risk neutral) Fractional Brownian Motion Fractional Brownian motion written fBm with Hurst exponent H 2 (0; 1) is a centred Gaussian process (Xt)t 0 such that 8s; t 0 : E [XsXt] = h 1 s2H 2 + t2H js tj 2H i The fBm is a generalisation of a standard Brownian motion that allows its increments to be correlated with H = 21 Brownian motion (H = 0:5 below) H > 21 increments are positively correlated so nice smooth paths (H = 0:8 below) H < 21 increments are negatively correlated giving something very rough (H = 0:2 below) Cheridito (2001) and Dieker (2004) respectively. Motivated by empirical studies, several authors have studies …nancial models driven by the fBm Fractional stochastic vol models Fractional Black-Scholes model Fractional stochastic volatility models (see Comte and Renauld (1998) or Comte, Coutin and Renault (2003)) explain better the long-time behaviour of the implied volatility. The fBm (and then the volatility) are not Markovian, and this becomes a strong di¢ culty to study and to put these models into practice (the usual techniques assume the Markov property). Models driven by the fBm Consider the fractional Black-Scholes model for a bond (Bt) and a stock (St) (H > 1=2) : Bond dynamics: dBt = rBtdt; follows the SDE: B0 = 1 ; 0 t dSt = Stdt + Std XtH ; S0 = S > 0; 0 T A stock S which t T where ; are constants and 6= 0: Here we introduce the Wick-calculus universe based on the Wick product, which is denoted by the symbol . From the market de…nition we have the following explicit solutions Bt = ert and St = S0 exp XtH + t 1 2 2H t 2 A portfolio (trading strategy) is a pair of progressively-measurable processes = ( t; t) where t and t in turn represent the amount invested in the bank account and the shares of stocks. The value process of such a portfolio is: Vt ( ) = tBt + tSt Wick-self …nancing: The value process is assumed to follow and the prtfolio Vt ( ) = tBt + t St = ( t; t) is called self-…nancing if for all t 2 [0; T ] dVt ( ) = = + t d St trBtdt + tStdt + tdBt H tStd Xt Applying a fractional form of Girsanov with a risk-neutral measure QH dVt ( ) = rVt ( ) dt + fH S d X t t t where dQH = exp dP and Z T 0 qt (s; t) dt = fH = X H + Note: X t t r Z T 0 r qtd XtH 1 2 jqj 2 ! holds for all s 2 [0; T ] : is a fBM under the measure QH : Under QH the stock price follows 1 2 2H t : 2 Ultimately the price of a European call option at initial time t = 0 was obtained: St = S0 exp fH + rt X t V0 = e rT EQH [VT ( )]