Southeast Asia
Tech Investment
2022
ABOUT
CENTO VENTURES
Cento Ventures is a venture capital firm focused on technology startups
building products and services emerging from the digital transformation of
promising growth markets, particularly Southeast Asia.
We are based in Singapore and backed by a team well experienced in
internet business. We operate three funds that invest across industries
through a disciplined, well-researched approach to locate technology
investment opportunities originating from the Southeast Asian region.
Cento Ventures is convinced that the opportunity exists for Southeast Asian
founders to build transformational digital companies, and we look forward to
working with more startup teams to create new success stories.
Learn more about us at cento.vc
and our social media pages: LinkedIn, Facebook, or Twitter.
Our investment thesis is guided by these three principles
Sectors ready for digital transformation:
There is an excellent opportunity for technology to solve
some of the inefficiencies present in emerging markets.
Most of our investments apply innovative business
models to large industry sectors that are set in their ways,
using technology as an enabler.
Tech startups at an early stage, but with proof points:
Our investments are usually at Series A, where we lead the
round. We invest once a company can show that a
market exists for its product and that it is ready to use
extra capital to scale.
Founders with great ambition:
We look for founders who want to build large digital
companies that are leaders in their category. Our
preference is for business models that are light on
physical assets and where the founders have ambitious
plans to scale internationally.
2023
2
2022 HIGHLIGHTS
• Region on the verge of a downturn
2022 saw US$ 10.4B going into the regional ecosystem, the third strongest year on record and
on par with the pre-pandemic investment levels. Southeast Asia did not see an abnormal
deficit of digital investment capital until the very end of 2022 despite the souring capital
market’s mood.
The region’s tech scene appeared slower to react to global changes than Latin America and
India. Southeast Asia remained much closer to its 2017-2020 capital intake baseline than the
peer regions, likely softening the inevitable early 2023 correction.
• Similar investment volumes, different investment priorities
The region underwent a rapid change of active investor composition halfway through the
year, causing reallocation of capital between geographies and stages and significantly
changing the valuation landscape.
Global late-stage investors powering Series C+ and mega deals categories were in retreat,
redirecting their effort towards investment stages as early as Series B and then nearly leaving
the market altogether. Regional and North Asian investors remained present across late-stage
deals, bringing mega-deal activity down to 2016 levels and Series C+ to late 2019 levels.
Funds managed by SEA investors have accumulated enough dry powder to keep Series A-C
going at a usual volume (capital invested in the H2 2022 decreased by 48% vs. H1 2022, a drop
off typical for 4 out of 5 preceding years), with a slowdown visible only in the very last weeks of
2022.
The valuation landscape changed sharply through the year, with Series B valuations most
volatile - Indonesia’s Series B valuations surged during global players’ retreat into earlier
stages only to come back down to late 2021 levels towards the end of the year; Series B
valuations in Vietnam have come down steadily through the year from the exceptional
heights of 2021.
2023
3
2022 HIGHLIGHTS
• Battle of narratives and search for the next growth story
In early 2022, as Series B valuations in Indonesia peaked and the search for the next regional
growth story began, the Philippines’ investment volume overtook that of Vietnam, as the
narratives of Vietnam’s “Next China” and the Philippines’ “Next Indonesia” were being tested
against each other. As the year went on, investment volumes came down in both markets, with
Vietnam ahead for H2 2022, albeit narrowly.
• Returns on invested capital arrive with vengeance
Private market liquidity (trade exits and secondaries) and initial proceeds from IPOs, despite
the subsequent weak performance of listed stock, delivered the best year for exits on record,
with 4 liquidity events generating more than $500M in proceeds each - GOTO and BELI IDX
IPOs; 2C2P and Coda Payments transactions. Additionally, 10 liquidity events delivered north of
$100M in proceeds each.
The top quartile median exit valuation has continued its steady rise from under US$ 100M in
2018 to nearly US$ 0.5B in H1 2022, setting a new benchmark for the value of a well-built
regional digital platform.
2023
4
2022 HIGHLIGHTS
• The Work Must Continue: digital financial infrastructure upgrade
Digital financial services remained the key investment theme for the region, representing 46%
of overall 2022 liquidity, 43% of all 2022 equity funding, and responsible, additionally, for billions
in private credit facilities lined up to support an array of non-bank lenders across the region
(which our report doesn’t yet track but someone should! We’re looking at you, ASEAN Central
Banks).
As private credit grew more sophisticated and available, investment into digital financial
services shifted from powering lending facilities and user acquisition to upgrading the key
financial infrastructure of the region, with payments value chain and capital market systems
being primary beneficiaries.
The sector’s vitality reflects rapid updates to regional payment infrastructure and regulations, a
variety of bank charters available to tech companies, and the shift of focus by existing digital
platforms as they leave the “super-app” thesis behind in favour of financial services origination
and distribution.
2023
5
Investment
Landscape Overview
The numbers on pages 6-11 incorporate all events customarily reported as technology
investments into Southeast Asia, including non-fiat investments, project financing, corporate
subsidiary investments, and such. The further analysis only includes financing and liquidity
events we consider venture investments into digital companies according to our methodology
laid out at the end of the report. The total value of investment events falling outside our
framework amounted to $ 1.2B in 2022
2023
6
SOUTHEAST ASIA ATTRACTED $ 10.4B IN 2022
THE THIRD STRONGEST YEAR DESPITE THE GLOBAL SLOWDOWN
•
•
The region sees 929 deals in 2022, the second-strongest year on record
Overall capital invested remains above the pre-pandemic period
SE Asia capital invested by year, $ B and deals done, #
$15
1,200
$14
991
$13
1,000
929
$12
$11
764
$10
744
800
$9
480
$8
436
$6
397
444
$12.8
$10.4
$5
$8.8
$4
221
$3
$2
600
$14.5
$7
400
$8.7
$5.9
200
$4.2
98
$2.2
$1
$0
0
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
# of Deals
Source: Cento research
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Capital Invested
2023
7
$ 3.6B INVESTED IN H2 2022
DECLINE IN H2 CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR YEARS
•
Capital invested in the H2 2022 decreased by 48% vs H1 2022 in the same pattern as seen in 2018, 2019, and 2020; 2021 was a clear outlier, with H2 exceeding H1 for
the first time since 2017.
•
The number of deals done rose slightly from H1 to H2 of 2022, despite 48% drop-off in overall funding volume, indicating a sharp shift of activity to earlier stages.
SE Asia capital invested by half-year period, $ B and deals done, #
+103%
$13
$12
$11
-55%
$9
393
371
$8
-65%
$7
$6
230
$5
206
235
223
221
111
$3
$0.3
$0
2013 H1
$0.2
2013 H2
$0.5
2014 H1
$1.0
$0.9
$1.2
2014 H2
2015 H1
2015 H2
$2.0
$2.1
200
$6.8
$6.0
$4.8
$4.0
$3.6
$2.7
$2.3
100
0
2016 H1
2016 H2
2017 H1
2017 H2
# of Deals
Source: Cento research
300
$9.7
$1.4
500
400
-48%
-55%
$6.5
$4.4
471
249
110
54
44
231
387
357
$8.9
162
$4
$1
458
454
$10
$2
600
537
2018 H1
2018 H2
2019 H1
2019 H2
2020 H1
2020 H2
2021 H1
2021 H2
2022 H1
2022 H2
Capital Invested
2023
8
GLOBAL REVERSAL OF EXTRAORDINARY 2021 GAINS
SOUTHEAST ASIA IS NEARLY BACK TO 2017-2020 BASELINE
•
•
LATAM experienced the steepest drop among growth markets, while China fell the most among developed peers.
Growth markets appear to respond to global tech slowdown with different degrees of alacrity, likely related to the degree of “ZIRP” investors’ influence in each region
Developed digital markets
Capital invested
by region, 2022 vs.
2021, $ B
2022
Growth digital markets
-32%
$289.9
$196.2
-18%
-46%
2021
$104.0
$85.0
-33%
$107.0
$57.4
US
Capital Invested
2022 vs Av. 2017-2020, X
[Av. 2017-2020 US$ B]
1.8X
[$110]
$38.5
$25.7
-28%
$14.5
$10.4
-53%
$15.9
$7.5
-7%
$5.2
$4.9
+24%
$3.2
$3.9
EU
China
India
SE Asia
LATAM
Africa
MENA
2.7X
0.7X
3.2X
1.1X
2.5X
3.8X
4.5X
[$32]
[$80]
[$8.1]
[$9.1]
[$3.0]
[$1.3]
[$0.9]
Source: US (NVCA, Pitchbook), EU (Dealroom), China (Global Data), India (IVCA, Bain), SE Asia (Cento Research), LATAM (LVCA). Africa (Partech), MENA (Wamda, Magnitt, Digital Digest)
2023
9
MEGA DEAL CATEGORY CONTINUED ITS DECLINE FROM H2 2021 PEAK ($ 5.3B)
2022 MEGA DEALS TOTAL AT $3B, BACK TO 2016 LEVELS
• Mega deals in H2 2022 declined by 50% vs H1 2022, and 81% vs H2 2021, resulting in the the lowest annual investment volume ($3B) for the category since 2016 ($2.8B).
• Contributors1 of H2 2022 mega deals include LINE Man, Investree, Shopback and Kredivo, following H1 2022’s Xendit, Carsome, Dana, Paymaya, Voyager Innovations,
Funding Societies, Tonik and Pintu.
• $ 100m+ deals in H2 2022 reverted to being driven by North Asian strategics and Southeast Asian strategic and sovereign investors; global growth investors completed
their withdrawal observed in H1 2022.
SE Asia capital invested, $ 100M+ deal analysis, $B, and $ 100M+ deals done, #
20
$13
$12
$11
$10
$9
$8
$7
9
$6
9
$5.3
10
$2.0
$7.5
6
$5
$4
5
$3
3
$2
$1
9
3
1
0
$0
2013 H1
2013 H2
2014 H1
2014 H2
2015 H1
$3.2
3
2
1
$1.3
$4.4
5
5
$1.5
$0.7
$0.6
$0.7
$0.7
2015 H2
2016 H1
2016 H2
$0.9$0.9 $1.3
# of deals $ 100M+
2017 H2
$2.2
$1.4
$1.6
2018 H1
2018 H2
$ 100M+
Source: Cento research
Note 1: Key drivers of mega deals of 2020-2021 (Grab, GoTo) went public end of 2021, and this report no longer tracks their capital intake.
5
5
$2.2
$1.0
$2.4
$0.9
$0.4
2
$0.6
1
$0.6
2017 H1
$4.0
$1.8
2019 H1
$1.9
$2.0
$1.8
2019 H2
2020 H1
2020 H2
$4.4
$4.8
$2.6
2021 H1
$2.6
2021 H2
2022 H1
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2022 H2
≤ $ 100M
2023
10
SHARP REVERSAL IN SERIES C+, DECLINES 83% IN H2 VS H1
CORE VENTURE FUNDING STACK ACROSS SERIES A-C REMAINS STABLE INTO Q4
• Series C+ ($ 50M to $ 100M per deal) category is back to late 2019 levels; gets boosted temporarily by global late-stage investors retreating to earlier stages in H1’22 before
leaving the market altogether in H2’22
• The rest of the funding stack (Series A-C) runs in line with 2021 through most of 2022, with signs of slowdown emerging in late Q4’2022
• Availability of pre-A and Series A capital ($ 0.5M - $ 10M) steady but limited as erstwhile Series A investors pursue higher AUM strategies
SE Asia capital invested, ≤$ 100M deal analysis, $ B and ≤$ 100M total deals done, #
$13
550
517
$12
448
445
$11
$10
388
$9
369
500
466
450
382
400
348
350
$8
300
$7
230
228
$6
$5
218
225
250
200
159
$4
110
$3
$2
220
203
240
107
53
44
$0.3
$0.7
$0.8
$0.4 $0.4
$0.5
$0.3
$1
$0
2013 H1
2013 H2
2014 H1
2014 H2
2015 H1
2015 H2
# of deals ≤$ 100M
Source: Cento research
2016 H1
2016 H2
>$ 100M
2017 H1
2017 H2
2018 H1
>$ 50M to $ 100M
2018 H2
$0.5
$0.4
$0.4
$1.0
$1.0
$1.1
$0.6
$0.8
$1.1
$0.8
$0.7
$0.5
$0.6
$0.5
$0.5
2019 H1
2019 H2
2020 H1
2020 H2
>$ 10M to $ 50M
2021 H1
$1.4
$2.0
$1.9
$1.8
$1.0
$1.0
2021 H2
150
100
$0.3
2022 H1
$1.3
50
$0.9
0
2022 H2
≤$ 10M
2023
11
BUSINESS (ALMOST) AS USUAL WITHIN CORE VENTURE STACK
SERIES C AND LATE SERIES B MIRROR SERIES C+ DECLINE
•
•
Series B+ & C ($10M to $ 50M per deal) slow down, remain comfortably above pre-pandemic levels
Deals below $ 10M (Seed to Series A) remain generally unscathed both in terms of capital invested and the number of deals
$2.5
176
$ 3M
deals1
$1.5
116
100
-2%
$1.0
$0.5
$0.19
$0.16
$0.21
$2.0
150
114
$0.28
$0.30
$0.24
$0.24
$ 3M+ to $
10M deals
50
2019 H2
2020 H2
2021 H2
$1.0
$0.0
2023 H2
116
54
$0.33
62
$0.37
2019 H2
57
$0.30
$0.52
80
$ 10M+ to $
50M deals
$1.5
51
45
$0.0
24
$1.0
2019 H2
75
60
49
$1.0
$0.5
90
61
41
$1.1
$1.1
$0.5
2020 H2
Source: Cento research
Note 1: Cento data for deals under $ 1M is not exhaustive
$1.9
$1.1
2021 H2
$1.8
120
$0.72
$0.71
80
$0.65
60
40
20
2020 H2
2021 H2
2022 H2
0
-83%
77
$2.0
140
100
-8%
-28%
$2.5
114
92
$1.5
$0.5
0
$0.0
130
$2.5
200
155
150
137
$2.0
$ 0.5M+ to
191
$1.3
2022 H2
30
15
0
# of deals
28
$2.5
$ 50M+ to $
100M deals
$2.0
30
25
20
20
$1.5
$1.0
10
6
6
$0.4
$0.4
$0.5
$0.0
Capital Invested, $ B
2019 H2
10
$2.0
$1.4
$0.8
2020 H2
$2.1
5
15
10
5
$0.6
$0.3
2021 H2
2022 H2
2023
0
12
COMPETITION FOR “NEW GROWTH STORY”
CONTINUES BETWEEN VIETNAM & THE PHILIPPINES
• The Philippines market overtakes Vietnam as the #3 VC investment destination once again as the two markets compete to be the next VC growth story
• 2022 notable transactions in the Philippines include Maya, Voyager Innovations, Tonik Financial, and GrowSari; Vietnam highlights include Trusting Social and Tiki
• VC investment distribution across the region remains disconnected from the size of underlying economies.
New VC Investment by country, %
5%
5%
3%
8%
3%
GDP (PPP) by country, %
3%
3%
3%
6%
21%
19%
7%
4%
6%
15%
22%
3%
4%
10%
7%
100%
100%
6%
15%
6%
8%
•
Vietnam
9%
•
Philippines
11%
32%
13%
20%
30%
25%
12%
7%
63%
69%
67%
52%
2016
Thailand
52%
2017
Malaysia
2018
2019
Vietnam
Source: Cento research, 2022 GDP (PPP) is based on IMF estimation.
2020
Philippines
45%
46%
2021
2022
Singapore
Indonesia
41%
GDP (PPP) 2022e
2023
13
HALF A DECADE OF INVESTMENT INTO FINANCIAL INFRA UPGRADE
DIGITAL FINANCIAL SERVICES CAPTURE 43% OF REGIONAL TECH FUNDING
•
The surge of investment into digital financial services tracks rapid upgrades to regional payment infrastructure and regulations, various bank charters available to tech
companies, and existing digital platforms looking to embed financial services.
Financial Services as % of VC capital invested and # of deals
% of Deals
Capital invested by sectors, top five, 2022, $ M and %
% Capital invested
Financial Services
50%
43%
45%
40%
Retail
35%
35 %
$2,074 (24%)
30%
25%
22%
25 %22%
20%
15%
$3,696 (43%)
24%
Business Automation
18%
15%
$499 (6%)
20%
3%
6%
43%
3%
4%
6%
11%
Logistics
10%
$379 (4%)
5%
0%
2018
Source: Cento research
24%
Healthcare
2019
2020
2021
2022
$298 (3%)
2023
14
DIGITAL FINANCIAL SERVICES INVESTMENTS GROW MORE SOPHISTICATED
PAYMENTS VALUE CHAIN REMAINS THE KEY BATTLEGROUND
•
•
Core payments and wealth management value chains continue to contribute half of Southeast Asia's digital financial service investments; focus shifts from subsidydriven wallets and first-generation trading platforms to underlying infrastructure upgrades of national payment systems, cross-border settlement facilities, and capital
market platforms
Private credit markets increasing scale and sophistication reduce the need to use expensive equity for lending activities leading to consumer and business lending
platforms raising less equity capital and forming larger balance sheets (not tracked by this report) instead
Capital Invested by Financial Services Sub-sector, %
3%
6%
3%
7%
10%
5%
5%
9%
3%
27%
18%
13%
4%
3%
4%
6%
6%
27%
9%
11%
11%
8%
7%
100%
5%
7%
13%
22%
21%
31%
30%
2021
2022
10%
15%
2%
54%
44%
32%
2018
Insurance
Data Analytics
Source: Cento research
2019
Banking as a Service
2020
Diversified Financial Services
Lending - Consumer
Lending - Business
Wealth Management & Capital Markets
Core Payments
2023
15
SUPER-APPS, ECOMMERCE LOGISTICS, CRYPTO WAVES SUBSIDE
POST COVID RECOVERY IN TRAVEL; SPIKE IN CLIMATE TECH
•
Ecommerce platform and local service aggregators search for profitability; ad tech capable of delivering cost-effective campaigns back in demand; subsidies to ecommerce logistics and fulfilment partners drop off.
•
•
The initial wave of climate tech (1) investment goes to carbon credit exchanges, waste management, and alternative battery solutions.
Gaming and entertainment investments driven by crypto thesis subside following the decline of GameFi investment wave (2).
Capital invested growth 2022 vs. 2021, top gainers, %
Capital invested growth 2022 vs. 2021, top losers, %
669%
179%
81%
$227m
Climate
Technology
Advertising &
Marketing
Logistics
Entertainment /
Gaming
-62%
-62%
Multi-vertical
Travel &
Hospitality
-87%
Source: Cento research
Note 1: Please see our definition of Climate Technology under our methodology page
2023
Note 2: Please refer to further industry research here.
16
SERIES A VALUATIONS SLIDE BACK TO 2021 LEVELS
SERIES B VALUATIONS SURGE IN H1, DECLINE IN H2
•
•
Southeast Asia valuations continued to grow for most of the year, with Series B valuations reversing in H2 and Series A valuations starting to drop off in certain markets in
late Q4
Most above-median valuation deals in the Series B category in H2 prominently featured Tiger Global
Median pre-money valuation, $ M, and % change between 2022 H2 vs 2022 H1
Median valuation
2022 H2 Median Valuation vs 2022 H1
-38%
$90.0
Pre-A
~0.9X
Series A
~0.9X
Series B
~0.6X
$75.0
$55.0
-12%
-7%
$22.0
$6.8
$5.9
Pre-A
$27.0
$23.0
$5.5
A
B
2021 H2
Source: Cento research
2022 H1
2022 H2
2023
17
SERIES A DEAL SIZE DECLINES SLIGHTLY
SERIES B DEAL SIZE AT HALF OF 2021 HIGHS
•
•
Series B lead investors continued being active through the year while driving valuations down.
Demand from “follower” investors at the Series B stage weakened, leading to lower average deal sizes – helped by the growing venture debt ecosystem (1).
Median deal size, $ M, and % change between 2022 H2 vs 2022 H1
2022 H2 Median Deal Size vs 2022 H1
Median valuation
-41%
$18.0
Pre-A
~0.6X
Series A
~0.9X
Series B
~0.6X
$15.0
-9%
-37%
$4.9
$1.0
$1.0
Pre-A
$5.0
$9.0
$4.6
$0.6
A
B
2021 H2
Source: Cento research
Note 1: Please refer to Genesis Alternative Ventures / INSEAD GPEI 2022 research for an overview of developments in regional venture debt space
2022 H1
2022 H2
2023
18
SERIES A REMAINS AVAILABLE ACROSS THE REGION
THE PHILIPPINES SERIES A IN OVERDRIVE
•
“Next Indonesia” narrative takes hold in the Philippines
Series A median pre-money valuation by country, 2021 H2 – 2022 H2 $ M
$75
-34%
+29%
$47
$50
$40
+7%
-19%
-7%
$25
$20
$19
$23
+51%
$12
$8
$25
$23
$23
$21
$18
$31
$26
$31
$29
$17
$10
$0
Malaysia
Thailand
Vietnam
2021 H2
Source: Cento research
Singapore
2022 H1
Philippines
Indonesia
2022 H2
2023
19
SERIES B REMAINS AVAILABLE ACROSS THE REGION
INDONESIA & VIETNAM DRIVE RAPID DECLINES IN SERIES B VALUATIONS
•
•
Series B investment volumes slide gently from the highs of 2021, yet the composition of participating investors changes abruptly halfway through 2022
Global growth investors “pre-empting” future growth rounds as early as Series B are replaced by regional Series B investors, leading to a re-assessment of valuation
drivers across the board
Series B median pre-money valuation by country, 2021 H2 – 2022 H2 $ M
-64%
$200
$185
$150
$121
$100
+173%
-13%
$50
$32
$25
$28
$83
$75
$70
$60
$53
-14%
-34%
-68%
$55
$65
$70
$75
$66
$60
$24
$22
$0
Malaysia
Thailand
Vietnam
2021 H2
Source: Cento research
Singapore
2022 H1
Philippines
Indonesia
2022 H2
2023
20
MEDIAN EXIT VALUATIONS ON PAR WITH MEDIAN SERIES B VALUATIONS
TOP QUARTILE EXIT VALUATIONS ON TRACK TO $ 0.5B MARK
•
•
Median exit valuation reached $88M in H1 2022 but corrected downwards as the full year results came in (similar to 2020).
The number of distressed exits, discounted secondary transactions and acquihires surged towards Q4 2022, bringing median and bottom quartile exit valuations down.
Exit valuation, bottom quartile, median, top quartile, $ M
$500
$422
$450
+48%
$400
$377
$350
$300
$251
$250
$200
$150
+18%
$100
$75
+20%
$53
$50
$0
$5
$5
$6
$11
$24
$10
Bottom-quartile
$89
$87
$30
Median
2018
Source: Cento research
$46
2019
2020
Top-quartile
2021
2022
2023
21
2022 SAW THE STRONGEST 12 MONTHS OF LIQUIDITY ON RECORD
RECORD NUMBER OF $500M+ EXIT EVENTS
•
•
•
4 liquidity events generating more than $500M in proceeds each: GOTO and BELI IDX IPOs; 2C2P and Coda Payments transactions (previous record held by 2017, with 3
such events being Sea Group IPO, Alibaba - Lazada and Alibaba - Tokopedia transactions).
10 liquidity events with known proceeds north of $100M each (previous record held by 2017, with 6 such events).
~$ 1B in secondary proceeds from Coda Payments and Dana transactions aside, 2022 saw a rise in smaller secondaries - driving up the number of liquidity events and the
drop in median exit proceeds for secondary deals.
Exit proceeds by year, $ B and deals done, #
Median Exit Proceeds by Type
110
千
$6.0
100
100
$5.0
83
$4.6
Trade Exits
90
$ 7.5
80
69
$4.0
55
62
$3.0
$3.0
$2.0
$1.1$3.2
64
61
$0.9
45
$2.4
$1.9
$1.8
$1.1
$0.4
$0.2
$0.3
$0.0
2013
$1.1
$1.1
$2.0
$0.7
2014
Source: Cento research
$1.0
$0.3
$0.4
2015
2016
2017
IPO
$0.5
Known Secondary
$21.0
$20.0
$11.0
20
$0.2
$1.5
$0.5
$0.4
# of Deals
$2.4
$0.8
$0.8
$0.2
40
30
$1.9
$2.0
50
$0.6
$1.5
$1.0
70
$5.0
60
$2.9
$0.2
$0.2
30
53
$4.0
$0.9
$ 1.0
10
0
2018
2019
Known Secondary
2020
Trade Exit
2021
2022
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
22
IPOS DELIVERED HALF OF 2021-2022 EXIT PROCEEDS
SUBSEQUENT SHARE VALUE LOSSES CLOSE IPO WINDOW IN 2023
•
•
•
•
Most of Southeast Asia's largest digital companies listed since 2021 halved their share prices within the first ~6 months.
Holders of regional tech stocks face significant exit hurdles due to limited market liquidity compared to global tech leaders.
IPO as the primary rationale for mega deals is no longer in place.
SE Asia companies valued above $1B privately and reported as preparing for IPO include Nium, Traveloka, Carsome, Finaccel, Carousell, Momo, Akulaku
and VNG (limited scope listing done in Jan 2023).
Public Indexes
Dec 30th 2021 vs Dec 30th 2022
Recently listed SE Asia technology leaders’ share price performance, end of Q1 2023, %
+ 10%
S&P 500
-19%
STOXX Europe 600
-13%
MSCI China Index
-22%
-45%
NIFTY 50
+4%
-64%
FTSE ASEAN All Share
-9%
MSCI Emerging
Markets Latin America
-1%
MSCI EFM Africa Top
50
-6%
Dow Jones MENA
-7%
+2%
IPO
SHARE PRICE
- 10%
% share price as vs. the price
at the end of the first trading day
- 20%
- 30%
- 40%
- 50%
- 60%
- 70%
-71%
-79%
- 80%
- 90%
- 100%
Jun-21 Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22 Feb-22
Source: Cento research, Google Finance, Yahoo Finance.
Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22
Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23 Mar-23
2023
23
SECTORS DRIVING EXIT PROCEEDS
FINANCIAL SERVICES, MULTI-VERTICAL, RETAIL
•
•
Digital financial services contributed 46% of the exit proceeds, primarily from the digital payment value chain
The multi-vertical is driven by GOTO’s 2022 IPO
Exit proceeds by sector, top three, 2022, $ M and %
Core Payments
(96.8%)
Retail
$998 (22%)
Lending - Consumer
Multi-vertical
22%
$1,100 (24%)
Financial Services
$2,087 (46%)
(1.7%)
46%
96.8%
24%
Insurance
(1.3%)
Wealth Management
(0.5%)
Source: Cento research
2023
24
SOURCES OF LIQUIDITY VARY ACROSS MARKETS
NARRATIVES EMERGE AROUND “IPO” VS “TRADE SALE” MARKETS
•
•
Singapore and Malaysia see more variety in paths to liquidity.
Public market liquidity is present in markets with well-understood global narratives (Indonesia, Vietnam), developed capital markets, or both (Singapore).
•
•
Thailand, despite advanced domestic capital market infrastructure, missed the IPO window of 2018-2022.
Local digital strategics remain a constant (the Philippines market skewed towards global acquirers by one outlier transaction).
Exit Proceeds by exit channel and market, 2018 – 2022, %
27%
20%
26%
48%
57%
100%
3%
4%
10%
26%
43%
37%
60%
7%
5%
5%
68%
30%
34%
20%
Regional*
Thailand
Digital Companies - Global
Source: Cento research
13%
45%
Philippines
Digital Companies - Southeast Asia
7%
18%
12%
Malaysia
70%
Vietnam
Non-digital Companies
Singapore
Financial Investors
Indonesia
Public Markets
2023
25
A DECADE IN REVIEW
MALAYSIA’S EXIT-TO-INVESTMENT RATIO STANDS OUT
•
•
Most Southeast Asian markets have generated proceeds of 0.2X to 0.35X of the cumulative capital invested into “their” tech companies between 2013 and 2022.
Erstwhile Singaporean and Malaysian companies have contributed the most to the regional company category (1), with Indonesia and Thailand adding one strong
•
contributor each.
Malaysia boasts the strongest exit-proceeds-to-investment-taken ratio.
Exit proceeds vs
capital investment ratio
SE Asia capital invested vs exit proceeds, 2013-2022, by year, $ B
SE Asia Total
$20.8
Indonesia
$20.8
$7.0
Regional*
Vietnam
$0.4
Philippines
$0.5
0.30X
$3.3
$0.6
Thailand
0.43X
$9.7
$2.9
0.19X
$1.9
0.23X
$1.8
0.26X
$1.7
$2.1
Malaysia
$0
0.37X
0.34X
$16.8
$7.3
Singapore
$56
1.21X
$5
$10
Capital Invested
$15
$20
$60
Exit Proceeds
Source: Cento research
Note 1: “Regional” companies are defined as companies deriving most of their revenue from Southeast Asia and less than half of their revenue from any given regional market.
2023
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METHODOLOGY
2023
27
•
Key premises
Numbers and conclusions in this study rely upon a company’s reported last round valuation. At best
this is a partial reflection of a company’s true value. To all in our audience who appreciate the
importance of financing terms over headline valuations, and who recognise that a more complete
understanding of any underlying business is helpful, we apologise. To atone for this
oversimplification, we’d like to take this opportunity to give a commendation to the great work
being done by a few in academia who probe deeply into the contradictory nature of how tech
valuations are reported, and produce splendid research that will one day help us as an industry
upgrade our reporting systems and, perhaps, change how tech company narratives are formed. In
this report, our recognition goes to Will Gornall and Ilya A. Strebulaev (professors at the Sauder
School of Business at the University of British Columbia and the Stanford Graduate School of
Business, respectively) for their comprehensive work on “Squaring Venture Capital Valuations with
Reality”, available here: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2955455 and with
media
coverage
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/11/fake-unicorns-are-running-over-theventure-capital-industry.html
•
Geographies covered
This iteration of our report does not make an attempt at covering some of the newer digital
ecosystems within ASEAN beyond the customary six countries, or the developments in countries
starting to gravitate towards SE Asia venture scene such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Hong
Kong, and Taiwan.
•
Data sources and completeness
Our data is compiled from a number of sources, although we primarily rely on public press
announcements and community disclosures from the companies and their investors. Our team
researches the validity of claims to an extent possible and supplements incomplete information
with insights from our own industry sources and, on occasion, somewhat educated guesswork.
In this report, we analysed and verified over 6,000 financing and liquidity events. Inevitably, a few
large deals would avoid detection on occasion of exceptionally secretive nature of the transaction
or due to the methodology we apply. It is also our impression that our pre-Series A deals data in the
region is far from exhaustive due to a sheer volume of deals in $ 10 - 250K range happening in the
market – while total dollar value of inflow and outflows is unlikely to be impacted heavily, do take
our “number of deal” assessments for pre-Series A with a large handful of salt. Finally, as new facts
come to light and as erstwhile announcements are verified, we adjust our databases retroactively,
leading to mild inconsistencies between various versions at the same period.
•
Category definitions and company profiles include
This report aims to describe the state of financing and liquidity generated by companies focused on
digital technology-driven opportunities in Southeast Asia. The exact definition of what a digital
technology-driven opportunity constitutes is a subject of much debate.
While leaving biotech, new materials and space tech out is relatively straightforward (but including
software and digital services enabling these industries), telling an offline company with digital
elements apart from a business where value creation is primarily tied to either its technology core
or its digital distribution is anything but simple. We have generally taken a view that if something
is valued as a technology company, we can trust its investors that it probably is.
At the same time, we also endeavour to exclude categories that, while adjacent to digital economy,
tend to attract non-VC capital to a degree where their financing / liquidation events interfere with
the signal from the rest of the ecosystem (notably, excluding the companies with valuations
determined by token economics).
Furthermore, we currently do not include traditional TV stations, content producers, sports and
entertainment brand, non tech-enabled consumer brands, telcos, IT infrastructures and system
integration companies as well as holding level entities that buy or develop technologies in addition
to their core business into our reporting.
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• Company classification
Country of origin:
Determined by the country in which the company was founded, and has its primary
Ø
Employment: companies that manage and facilitate the management of
employees including onboarding, benefit, payroll, etc.
Ø
Entertainment/ Gaming: gaming development, distribution and publishing
Southeast Asia / regional in the country of origin.
Ø
Entertainment/ Non-gaming: content production and news aggregation
Sector classification:
Ø
Financial Services: companies that apply technology into traditional banking
base of operation (defined in terms of revenue, if known). At the (subjective) point
where the company has both operations in multiple countries in Southeast Asia and
substantial revenues generated in multiple countries, then it may be classified as
Cento’s definition of the industry segment in which the company’s primary business
focus sits. A full taxonomy of sector allocation is listed below. In cases where a
company focus on multiple sectors with different units generating thought to
generate substantial revenue, then multi-vertical category is used. We also note that
a company’s sector may change as the company progresses; the company’s sector is
services i.e. payment, lending, wealth management, etc.
Ø
Healthcare: provision of goods and services revolving around medical and
wellness services including, but not limited to, e-pharmacy, medical tourism and
telehealth
Ø
Local Services: platforms that connect local merchants/ service providers to
evaluated according to the primary business focus during the event of financing.
Ø
Advertising & Marketing Technology: companies that facilitate the acquisition of
customers including coupons and rebates, price comparisons and affiliate
marketing
Ø
Business Automation: tools that automates non industry-specific business
consumers in an urban setting including, but limited to, ride-hailing services, local
search and directory and food delivery
Ø
Logistics: companies that facilitate the movement of goods including, but not
limited to, acquiring, storing and transporting of goods
Ø
Multi-vertical: our name for diverse digital businesses such as Grab & Goto, often
activities such as CRM, ERP, workplace communication tools, etc.
Ø
called ‘super-apps’
Climate Technology: includes recycling, carbon credit settlements, and carbon
capture. Companies from other sectors contributing to climate improvements,
Ø
such as real estate energy management or agriculture value chain, are
categorised under their respective sectors.
Real Estate and infrastructure: construction, buying & selling and management of
real estate assets, including the tools facilitating those activities
Ø
Retail: companies that sell or rent goods using internet technology, including
tools that facilitate those activities e.g. Store-front management software, POS
Ø
Comms & Communities: social networks and dating
Ø
Education: provision of goods and services revolving teaching and learning,
including adult training and education
systems, etc.
Ø
Travel: tourism and hospitality
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Sector classification – financial services:
Ø Banking as a Service: companies that digitise basic banking functions. This
includes digital banks that is licensed to provide financial services directly to
clients, software layers that help banks communicate to external software, and
companies that supplement banks’ process such as debt collection.
Ø Core Payments: companies that enable a transfer of cash/cash equivalent
between two or more parties, including wallets and remittances.
Ø Data Analytics & Scoring: the utilisation of data to predict the credibility of
consumers or businesses.
Ø Insurance: companies operate or assist in the distribution, product design, and
underwriting of insurance products.
Ø Wealth Management & Capital Markets: companies engage in asset allocation to
generate higher returns, including platform that enable clients to manage their
assets and those that do so on the clients’ behalf.
Ø Lending – Consumer / Business: Companies that facilitate individuals’ or
businesses’ exchange of cash/cash equivalent for a secured and unsecured
repayment contract.
Ø Diversified Financial Services: companies that generate businesses from multiple
financial products. This includes wallets that provide other financial services and
multi-product financial comparison platforms.
•
Currency
Ø Pre-Series A: Purpose of investment tends to be building the idea/team; in some
cases, the company generates revenue.
Ø Series A: The product has been built and proven via initial but repeatable revenue.
Investment purpose tends to be establishing domestic position, and sometimes
scaling regionally.
Ø Series B: Investment purpose tends to be building scale, either domestically or
regionally.
Ø Series C+: any amount invested later than Series B. Series C, Series D, later series
investments, pre-IPO, mezzanine.
We have also estimated a particular company’s valuation through a recent
substantial financing or liquidity event and known business developments
Deal type:
We focus mainly on venture capital deals – investments made by fund entities into
early stage startups, whether they are from independent funds of corporate venture
capital entities. This is a subset of the total number of early stage tech deals in the
region.
We separate the following from most of our data, apart from the ‘total capital
invested and total deals done’ chart:
Ø
Corporate transfers: events where a corporate entity funds an entity in the region
in which it owns a majority or significant minority stake (e.g. Rocket Internet,
Lippo Group)
Ø
Project financing: A deal which was a partnership for an identified purpose – e.g.
Grab-Honda.
Ø
Non-Southeast Asia deals: e.g. India and China focused companies that happen to
use Singapore for their corporate domicile.
$ refers to United States Dollar ($) unless otherwise stated.
•
Deal definitions
Deal stage:
Each series definition is determined as follows:
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Contact
www.cento.vc