Instructions: 1. Sign up for ONE topic by writing your name in the chart below 2. Come up with ONE argument for each side of your chosen SPN topic 3. Be sure that next to your argument you indicate your name and link your evidence The document will be available until Wednesday, 3/22 at 11:00 pm, at which time it will be closed until the discussion section. Topics: 1) Should the U.S. government focus its foreign aid exclusively on countries with stable, democratically elected governments with effective anti-corruption measures in place? 2) Should foundations that champion evidence-based policymaking only finance international development interventions that have demonstrated efficacy using randomized controlled trials or other credible causal identification methods? Only fill this side once there are 5 people signed up for each topic SPN Topic Foreign aid to reliable govs Person 1 Person 2 Person 3 Person 4 Person 5 Person 6 Person 7 Kevin Mei Adit Sinha Markell a Papandr eou Jayson Singer JC Michael Bozzi Brando n Davidso n Emma Brelloc hs Logan Varsano Charles V Hodrin Kamnan g Randomized Teddy control trials Taylor Person 8 Person 9 Example: ● Name: Bob ○ Argument 1: Permitting organ sales will save many lives by alleviating the shortage of transplantable organs. ■ Evidence: According to the US Department of Health and Human Services Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network, there are approximately 123,000 patients on transplant waiting lists in the US (The Person 10 Economist 2014). In the case of kidney transplants, US patients have to wait an average of three and a half years to acquire a compatible kidney. ■ Analysis: Permitting organ sales will save many lives by alleviating the shortage of transplantable organs. By legalizing a commercial market for organs, we can meet the constant, inelastic demand of terminally ill patients who need organ transplants to survive. ■ Source: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/organs-sale/ Arguments for Topic #1: Foreign Aid to Reliable Governments Name: (Kevin Mei) Yes ● Argument: Countries like Afghanistan who have received aid from the US have not seen significant impact and economic growth because the money may be misused by the government. ○ Evidence: “the Afghan government failed to recognize that the United ○ States would actually leave.” “Afghan government insisted that the Taliban be effectively integrated into the Republic, making progress on peace negotiations difficult” “Corruption in Afghanistan is anything but new. The billions poured into the country over the last two decades, especially from the U.S., fueled a class of Afghan millionaire contractors, politicians and warlords whose corruption crippled the country and pushed many into the arms of the Taliban, who have pledged to do away with such behavior.” ○ Analysis: The Afghan government made poor decisions that led to their continued issues even with significant aid from the US. So the US should look to focus giving aid to countries that will manage and use the money properly, which would be democratic governments with anti-corruption policies in place. ○ Source: https://www.sigar.mil/pdf/evaluations/SIGAR-23-05-IP.pdf https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/17/aid-funding-for-afghanistan-at-risk-of-taliban-m isuse-corruption.html No ● Argument: Countries that desperately need foreign aid due to emergencies should still receive aid as their citizens will be further harmed regardless of past corruption. ● Evidence: “Thousands of buildings are estimated to have been damaged across Syria, affecting 8.8 million people according to UN figures. Over 105,000 people are displaced.” ○ Analysis: During tragic emergencies like in the Syrian earthquakes that occurred in February of 2023, it is still important for countries to offer support and help through foreign aid as it is a humanitarian crisis. Although Syria has lots of corruption, their citizens need the help now so it is of obligation from other countries to provide this help during such critical times. ○ Source: https://www.nrc.no/news/2023/march/syria-earthquake-one-month-on-families-str uggle-funding-dangerously-slow/#:~:text=Thousands%20of%20buildings%20are %20estimated,to%20cost%20%245.1%20USD%20billion. Name: Adit Sinha Yes ● Argument: Focusing aid on countries with stable, democratic governments and effective anti-corruption measures helps ensure that aid is being used effectively and for its intended purpose, rather than being lost to corruption or mismanagement. ○ Evidence: ○ Analysis: ○ Source: No ● Argument: ○ Evidence: ○ Analysis: ○ Source: Name: Jayson Singer Yes ● Argument: Foreign aid to fragile countries is not as effective as foreign aid given to stable governments. ○ Evidence: “the World Bank reported that the share of its projects in fragile states receiving unsatisfactory evaluations was double the share in stable countries.” ○ Analysis: This evidence shows that foreign aid given to weak countries has had more negative results than foreign aid that's given to stable countries. The US should only give aid to countries with stable governments so that the aid given to the recipient country is properly allocated to produce its full potential of positive effects. ○ Source: https://www.brookings.edu/research/aid-effectiveness-in-fragile-states/ No ● Argument: Foreign aid helps many people in need as corrupt countries who receive foreign aid still use a portion of the money for its intended purpose. ○ Evidence: “USAID, after the invasion of Afghanistan, worked with the country's Ministry of Health and set up a system that provided very basic levels of health care to the majority of Afghanistan's population for a low cost. It worked. After the Taliban [fell from power] life expectancy jumped so rapidly [from 42 years to 62 years between 2004 and 2010]. There were huge improvements — especially for young people and children. You can trace that to increased vaccinations, neonatal care funded by USAID.” ○ Analysis: Although foreign aid to corrupt countries may not all be used for its intended purpose, the evidence shows that at least a portion is still used to help the citizens of the recipient country as seen here when Afghanistan was given aid in its health care system and it produced positive effects. ○ Source: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/08/04/539285319/is-corruption-really-abig-problem-in-foreign-aid\ Name: Markella Papandreou Yes ● Argument: Focusing its foreign aid exclusively on countries with stable, democratically elected governments with effective anti-corruption measures in place, would allow the US to ensure that the aid provided is used in a responsible manner ○ Evidence: Some US$150 billion in nonmilitary U.S. aid flowed into Afghanistan from 2001 to 2020, plus billions more from its allies and international organizations.For those two decades, Afghanistan’s economic development aid largely funded education, health care, governance reforms and infrastructure – including schools, hospitals, roads, dams and other major construction projects.One notable result in terms of education was that far more students were enrolled in school. The number of students jumped from 900,000 in 2001 to more than 9.5 million in 2020. Foreign aid helped build about 20,000 elementary schools, and the number of universities grew sharply as well. The number of Afghans enrolled in higher education programs soared from 7,000 in 2001 to about 200,000 in 2019. There were no female college students in 2001, but there were 54,861 in 2019. ○ Analysis:Focusing its foreign aid exclusively on countries with stable, democratically elected governments with effective anti-corruption measures in place, would allow the US to ensure that the aid provided is used in a responsible manner. the USA has a straight line of communication with the leader of the receiving country, giving the USA the power to monitor how the money is being used, while giving the USA the ability to withdraw if it decides that the money is not used in a responsible manner by the receiver. Even though we acknowledge that the primary goal of aid is to assist others living in less fortunate conditions, the USA must consider which recipients will see the USA’s assistance as an opportunity to grow, making the investment worth it, especially since money for bilateral aid is coming from taxpayer money ○ ○ Source: https://theconversation.com/what-did-billions-in-aid-to-afghanistan-accomplish-5questions-answered-166804 No ● Argument: The goal in foreign aid, in principle, is to help countries in need, regardless of its government ○ Evidence: Foreign aid is money, technical assistance, and commodities that the United States provides to other countries in support of a common interest of the U.S. and that country. Typically, the support goes either to a government entity or to communities in that country. Such support typically falls into one of three categories: humanitarian assistance for life-saving relief from natural and manmade disasters; development assistance that promotes the economic, social, and political development of countries and communities; and security assistance, which helps strengthen the military and security forces in countries allied with the United States. The relative proportions vary each year, but over time humanitarian assistance accounts for a bit less than one-third of the foreign aid budget, development assistance a bit more than a third, and security assistance about a third. Very little actually is delivered as cash, and most funds for humanitarian and development assistance are provided not to government entities but used for technical assistance and commodities provided by U.S., international, and local organizations. ○ Analysis: Bilateral aid assistance is primarily used to assist other countries in need. Most of the time, the countries in the most need are exactly those who do not have democratically elected governments or have anti-corruption measures in place. This US should aim to assist these countries first, while, at the same time, gaining political and market advantages. ○ Source: https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/social-sciences/bilateral-aid Name: JC Yes ● Argument: It protects US interests better. ○ Evidence: In 2016, the Government of Colombia signed a peace accord with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), ending more than half a century of conflict. Since 2016, the United States has provided more than $1 billion in direct and indirect support to peace implementation – by far the largest contribution of any international partner. ○ Analysis: The US government can help to promote stability and reduce the risk of conflict, which can in turn help to protect U.S. national security interests. Following decades of conflict between the Colombian government and various insurgent groups, the U.S. government has provided significant aid to support peace negotiations, security, and counter-narcotics efforts. This aid has helped to promote stability in the region and reduce the risk of drug trafficking and other criminal activities that could threaten U.S. national security interests. ○ Source: https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R43813.pdf https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-colombia/ No ● Argument: This approach might not be the most effective in achieving the goal of promoting development and reducing poverty. ○ Evidence: Corruption: Afgangikhan ranking 174/180 in Corruption Percentage Index; Government: internal conflict. “USAID remains committed to the people of Afghanistan despite these unprecedented challenges. With more than two dozen active awards, our work is focused on meeting basic needs through our support for livelihoods, agriculture, health, and education.” ○ Analysis: In many cases, countries with unstable governments and corruption issues may be the ones that are most in need of foreign aid to address some domestic issues. And the aid does help the country, for example in Afghanistan. ○ Source: https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021/index/afg https://www.usaid.gov/afghanistan Name: Michael Bozzi Yes ● Argument: Focusing on stable governments can lead to more effective and efficient use of foreign aid resources. ○ Evidence: An analysis is performed on specific samples from 2000 to 2019. The model is split into three sections for this purpose: i.e., all developing economies, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the most corrupt countries from regions other than SSA. The difference generalized method of moments (GMM) panel framework is used for empirical analysis. The study concludes that foreign aid does not result in encouraging and significant changes in overall economic growth in developing economies. ○ Analysis: Ine the study, research has shown that corruption can significantly reduce the effectiveness of foreign aid by diverting resources away from their intended purposes, reducing the quality of public services, and creating a climate of distrust among citizens. By focusing on countries with effective anti-corruption measures in place, the U.S. government can ensure that its foreign aid is being used as intended and is contributing to positive development outcomes. ○ Source: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2022.959563/full No ● Argument: Focusing on stable governments may neglect countries that are in dire need of assistance. ○ Evidence: “Since the 2010 earthquake, the United States has provided over $5.6 billion for assistance to Haiti to support life-saving post-disaster relief as well as longer-term recovery, reconstruction, and development programs.” ○ Analysis: Haiti does not have a stable government. It has faced continuous turmoil through the multiple changes in leadership, constant protests, and violence. However, they faced a major earthquake in 2010 and the US provided over $5 billion in assistance despite their unstable government. The US has provided food, water, medical care, etc. Focusing solely on countries with stable, democratically elected governments may mean neglecting these urgent needs and leaving vulnerable populations without the assistance they require ○ Source: https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-haiti/ Name: Brandon Davidson ● Yes ○ Argument : Donating aid to countries with unstable governments can lead to rampant fraud and corruption and prohibits aid from getting to those who need it ■ Evidence: Investigations into USAID aid allocations in Syria revealed “complex fraud schemes affecting the quality and effectiveness of humanitarian assistance delivered to refugee camps” ■ Analysis: USAID assistance to Syria was misused because of corrupt actors within monetary and supply pathways. Further, the unstable situation in the country did not allow for anti-corruption measures to be enforced. Donating to countries with unstable, undemocratic governments allows for invaluable aid to be funneled to corrupt actors. Source: https://oig.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/2021-03/8-000-21-001-P_0.pdf ● No ○ Argument: Donating aid to countries with unstable governments can influence political will and the scope of development within those states, decreasing their instability ■ Evidence: An analysis of 39 African countries found a positive relationship between foreign aid to unstable low-income countries and GDP growth. ■ Analysis: Foreign aid has been shown to be effective in unstable low-income countries, particularly in industrial and infrastructural sectors. People in these countries need aid, and increased development has proven to increase the stability of a country. Therefore, we should allocate aid to these countries to combat instability, improve democratic input, and help people in need. Source: http://dx.doi.org/10.17159/2222-3436/2015/V18N4A1 Notes for Yes (TA use only): ● ● Arguments for Topic #2: Evidence-based Interventions Name: Teddy Yes ● Argument: More long-term data ○ Evidence: Generates a solid evidence base ○ Analysis: Understanding evidence in one segment may reveal long term patterns into what is effective, meaning that little research will have to be done in the future. ○ Source: https://web.worldbank.org/archive/website01397/WEB/IMAGES/SIEF_PRO.PDF No ● Argument: Many “inefficient” organizations would not receive aid ○ Evidence: Many countries in need of aid may not be able to show that they are in need of development through data. ○ Analysis: Ultimately, what is considered to be efficient is up to these foundations. (What if, for example, poverty decreases but injustice increases?) Likewise, they may pick a measure of efficiency that does not ultimately save lives. There are many different ways to define evidence based policymaking if it is not agreed upon what it seeks to achieve. ○ Source: https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/104159/improving-evidence-b ased-policymaking.pdf Name: Emma Brellochs Yes ● Argument: The US should only dedicate money to interventions based on RCTs to continue its trend and support for evidence-based programs, especially as other countries do not prioritize it. ○ Evidence: From 1985-2014, the average citing of RCTs in social policy in the US was 62%, compared to 4% in Canada, the UK, and Australia, and 2% in India, Kenya, and Mexico. Other countries average 20%. ○ Analysis: By giving aid to international efforts to incorporate more RCTs in intervention decision-making, the US would solidify its stance on valuing evidence-based programs. Other countries do not prioritize this, as their social policies cite RCTs way fewer, and by the US aiding internationally, it could even out other countries’ low investment, or even motivate other countries in evidence-based decision-making. ○ Source: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/centers/mrcbg/files/FINAL_AWP55 .pdf No ● Argument: Evidence based intervention requirements for aid may fail to account for individualized needs of regions or countries, which may require analysis beyond or instead of causal methodology for efficacy. ○ Evidence: In the context of evidence based medicine, it may have negative outcomes as it fails to manage complexity, individual’s needs, and the person’s context and issues like multimorbidity. In addition, the quantity of research studies and quality of existing research may vary. ○ Analysis: This can apply to evidence based programs internationally. What has been studied may not be tailored enough for the situation, or there may be evidence for the intervention being effective in one country, but that does not mean that it would work for another area, or the globe as a whole. It may be valuable to also consider the context and community needs, rather than relying on evidence of successful programs. ○ Source: https://health-policy-systems.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12961-015-00 57-0 Name: Logan Varsano Yes ● Argument: Foundations that champion evidence-based policymaking should only finance international development interventions that have demonstrated efficacy using randomized controlled trials (RCTs) because RCTs account for potential downfalls in other identification methods. ○ Evidence: “What makes RCTs useful is the set of procedures they are expected to follow, such as placebo controls, concealment, randomization and pre-registration. These procedures are layers of protection against challenges that scientists usually face in research.” ○ Analysis: Essentially, RCTs help assert that whatever is achieved as a result of the trials is solely due to the intervention in question. This outcome is something unique to the random nature of RCTs. It is therefore less risky for foundations to finance interventions that have been tested using RCTs because they can be assured that their money is going to credible forms of intervention, and therefore protect their image as a champion of evidence-based policymaking. ○ Source: https://ourworldindata.org/randomized-controlled-trials No ● Argument: Foundations that champion evidence-based policymaking should finance international development interventions that have demonstrated efficacy using a variety of credible causal identification methods instead of only RCTs because RCTs have relatively limited terms of use. ● Evidence: “Often, however, an RCT cannot be conducted for ethical reasons, and sometimes for practical reasons as well. In such cases, knowledge can be derived from an observational study instead.” ○ Analysis: In other words, RCTs might not always be possible, especially considering that international development interventions often require testing with humans and are therefore more likely to have the above ethical and practical ramifications. ○ Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7081045/#:~:text=In%20clinical% 20medical%20research%2C%20causality,from%20an%20observational%20stud y%20instead. Name: (Charles) Yes ● Argument: Policymakers should consider a wide range of empirical studies when considering policies. ○ Evidence: Decisions are usually better when policymakers can thoroughly understand existing research in relevant fields. ○ Analysis: Rather than relying on isolated observations or one-off studies, by exploring a hierarchy of available scholarship pertaining to an issue, legislatures can benefit from existing empirical studies. While this information is not always available, it is usually fruitful when researchers engage in these investigations. ○ Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1415462 No ● Argument: Attempting to justify actions or policies based on randomized control tests subjects policies to similar biases while introducing a false sense of validity. ○ Evidence: There is no definitive definition of what constitutes relevant empirical evidence, and forcing policy makers to cite these data will not eliminate these debates. ○ Analysis: Without a wide range of representative qualitative and quantitative data, empirical evidence will not ensure effective policies. ○ Source: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/08913811.2017.1395223 Name: (Hodrin) Yes ● Argument: Promotes transparency and accountability ○ Evidence: Foundations that finance only interventions with a demonstrated impact using rigorous evaluation methods can promote transparency and accountability ○ Analysis: This approach sends a clear signal to organizations that they will be held accountable for delivering measurable results. ○ Source: https://www.tc.columbia.edu/cice/pdf/25629_1_1_Edwards_Hulme.pdf No ● Argument: Evaluation methods may not capture the outcomes ○ Evidence: Using evaluation methods may not be feasible in all context. ○ Analysis: Financing only interventions with an established evidence base may miss out on promising interventions that require a more nuanced approach ○ Source: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19439342.2012.710641 Notes for No (TA use only): ● ●