Welcome to the permacrisis
Fisher, M. (2022, July 12). Is the World Really Falling Apart, or Does It Just Feel That Way?
The New York Times article explores the perception of the world falling apart despite
positive long-term trends. It highlights that gradual improvements, such as reduced
war and poverty, often go unnoticed, while crises and emergencies dominate current
perceptions. The author attributes the sense of decline in wealthy countries to
economic stagnation and, notably, a concerning global trend of democratic erosion,
challenging the optimistic outlook observed in many low and middle-income nations.
Roubini, N. (2023, January 18). Sleepwalking on Megathreat Mountain
In this Project Syndicate article, economist Nouriel Roubini outlines a series of
interconnected "megathreats" posing significant risks to the global future. These
include a shift from low to high inflation, the transformation of secular stagnation
into stagflation, rising interest rates, deglobalization trends, geopolitical threats,
accelerated climate change, increased pandemic frequency, and the potential
negative impacts of advanced technologies. Roubini draws parallels between the
current era and the tumultuous period between 1914 and 1945, emphasizing that
today's challenges, such as climate change and artificial intelligence, pose even
greater threats. He warns of a "geopolitical depression" and urges leaders to address
these issues rather than succumb to complacency.
Tooze, A. (2022, October 28). Welcome to the World of the Polycrisis. Financial Times.
The article explores the concept of a "polycrisis," characterized by a confluence of
diverse and interconnected challenges such as the pandemic, environmental issues,
geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainties. This complex landscape defies
simple explanations and solutions, marking a departure from past crises with singular
causes. The author emphasizes the accelerating pace of global change, the fragility of
democracy, and the need for continuous adaptation in the face of escalating
environmental and socio-economic challenges, warning that the future will likely be
marked by increased uncertainty and precariousness.
Turnbull, N. (2022, November 11). Permacrisis: what it means and why it’s word of the year
for 2022. The Conversation.
The Collins Dictionary's word of the year for 2022, "permacrisis," encapsulates the
widespread sentiment of enduring challenges in the face of multiple unprecedented
events, ranging from the pandemic to geopolitical conflicts. Contrary to historical
views of crises as opportunities for progress, "permacrisis" reflects a contemporary
perspective that envisions crises as persistent, complex, and unresolvable, rooted in
systems theory. This term signifies not only a loss of faith in progress but also a
pragmatic acknowledgment that attempting to accelerate through difficulties may
lead to further complications, suggesting a new realism regarding the profound and
interconnected challenges humanity faces.
Human Extinction
Gee, H. (2021, November 30). Humans Are Doomed to Go Extinct. Scientific American.
The article argues that the human population is heading towards extinction due to
various factors. While concerns in the 1960s focused on nuclear annihilation and
overpopulation, the author contends that the imminent threat has shifted. Factors
contributing to the potential decline include a decrease in genetic diversity, a
significant decline in sperm quality, environmental pollution, stress from close living
proximity, economic unsustainability, and the emancipation of women leading to
reduced birth rates. The author suggests that humanity might be experiencing an
"extinction debt," with signs of habitat degradation, declining fertility, and shrinking
birth rates, indicating a potential collapse of the human population in the near future.
Longrich, N.R. (2020, May 5). Will Humans Go Extinct?
The article explores the question of human extinction, acknowledging the inevitability
of species disappearing over time. It highlights human vulnerabilities, such as
dependence on constant food supply and slow reproductive rates, making us
susceptible to environmental disruptions. Despite these vulnerabilities, the author
suggests that humans possess unique characteristics, such as widespread distribution,
adaptability, and cultural evolution, which may enable us to resist extinction, even in
the face of existential threats like asteroids or climate change.
Meyer, R. (2016, April 29). Human Extinction Isn't That Unlikely. The Atlantic.
The article discusses global catastrophic risks to humanity, emphasizing the threats of
nuclear war, climate change, and pandemics. According to a report by the Global
Challenges Foundation, the risk of human extinction from these events may be higher
than commonly perceived, with estimates ranging from 0.1 to 0.2 percent annually.
The report advocates for taking these risks seriously and suggests measures such as
reducing nuclear weapons stockpiles, cutting greenhouse gas emissions, and
developing technology to rapidly accelerate food production to increase societal
resilience.
Sandberg, A. (2014, May 29). The Five Biggest Threats to Human Existence. The
Conversation.
The article discusses existential risks that could threaten the long-term survival of
humanity. The author identifies five major threats: nuclear war, bioengineered
pandemics, superintelligence, nanotechnology, and unknown unknowns. While
acknowledging the challenges in predicting future risks, the author emphasizes the
importance of addressing these threats, highlighting the potential consequences of
human extinction, such as the loss of meaning generated by past and future
generations. The article underscores the need for proactive efforts to prevent
existential risks and encourages a more comprehensive understanding of potential
dangers beyond those currently in the public discourse.
Societal Collapse
Beddoes, Z.M. (2022, November 18). Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023. The
Economist.
The world is facing an inevitable global recession in 2023 due to three interconnected
shocks: geopolitical tensions, a commodity shock caused by the war in Ukraine, and
escalating inflation driven by surging energy prices. The geopolitical challenge
involves a shifting world order, with the US facing challenges from Russia's Vladimir
Putin and strained relations with China. As a result, many countries are expected to
experience recession in 2023, particularly in Europe, where economic weakness may
exacerbate geopolitical risks. Despite the grim outlook, there is a silver lining as the
crisis prompts a reevaluation of economic and energy policies, potentially leading to
a greener and more secure global energy system.
Newitz, A. (2021, April 1). Civilizations Don’t Really Die. They Just Take New Forms. The
Washington Post
The article explores the concept of civilizational collapse and challenges the simplistic
narratives surrounding it, using examples from history such as the Roman Empire and
the Khmer Empire. The author argues that civilizations do not experience a complete
and sudden collapse but instead undergo complex transformations, evolving and
hybridizing with other cultures over time. Drawing on examples like the Indus Valley
civilization and indigenous nations in the Americas, the article advocates for a more
nuanced understanding of societal change and emphasizes the importance of
collaboration in guiding positive transformations rather than succumbing to
apocalyptic thinking.
Ahmed, N. (2021, July 14). MIT Predicted in 1972 That Society Will Collapse This Century.
New Research Shows We’re on Schedule. Vice.
A recent study by a KPMG director supports a 1972 MIT warning that industrial
civilization could collapse within this century. The research, conducted by Gaya
Herrington, analyzes data against the MIT 'World3' model, finding that current trends
align with scenarios predicting economic decline by 2040. The study suggests a
narrow window for redirecting priorities towards sustainable development within the
next decade to avoid potential societal collapse and advocates for a shift away from a
growth-centric approach, emphasizing the potential for a regenerative and inclusive
future.
Spinney, L. (2018, January 17). End of Days: Is Western Civilisation on the Brink of Collapse?
New Scientist.
The New Scientist article explores the question of whether Western civilization is on
the brink of collapse, citing warnings from scientists, historians, and politicians.
Drawing on historical patterns, researchers like Peter Turchin suggest that cycles of
inequality and resource use may lead to political unrest and eventual collapse, with
signs of such trends already visible. The article discusses various perspectives on the
potential outcomes, from a complete collapse to a shift in global structures, and
suggests that addressing issues such as inequality, resource depletion, and the need
for analytical thinking may influence the future trajectory of Western civilization.
Climate change
McKay, D.A. (2022, October 6). Climate tipping points could lock in unstoppable changes to
the planet – how close are they? The Conversation.
The article discusses the risk of climate tipping points, self-sustaining shifts in the
climate system that could result in irreversible changes, such as sea-level rise. The
author, McKay, highlights that advances in climate modeling and new observations
suggest that these tipping elements, including ice sheets and permafrost, may be
more vulnerable than previously thought. The study indicates that five tipping points
could be triggered at current warming levels, emphasizing the importance of
ambitious emissions cuts to mitigate the likelihood of these irreversible changes and
align with the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
Bernstein, J. (2019, October 11). The Climate Crisis and the Failure of Economics
The article argues that the economic model, based on scarcity and price signals, fails
to address the climate crisis adequately. Fossil fuels, essential contributors to global
warming, are underpriced, and the economic system's emphasis on present concerns
undermines efforts to combat climate change. The author suggests that the failure
results from a combination of discounting the future, where the current generation
prioritizes immediate gains over long-term consequences, and the influence of profitdriven politics that obstruct accurate carbon pricing. The Green New Deal is proposed
as a potential solution, shifting the focus to immediate social justice needs while
simultaneously addressing climate change without solely relying on adjusting price
signals.
Carrington, D. (2022, August 1). Climate Endgame: Risk of Human Extinction ‘Dangerously
Underexplored’. The Guardian
Climate scientists argue that the risk of global societal collapse or human extinction,
termed the "climate endgame," is dangerously underexplored and could result from
accelerating climate change. Despite uncertainties, catastrophic scenarios involving
famine, extreme weather, war, and disease cannot be ruled out. The international
team of experts calls for urgent preparation, improved resilience, and informed
policies to address the potential consequences of climate breakdown, including
tipping points, international conflicts, and the exacerbation of existing vulnerabilities.
Nuttall, P. (2022. August 6). Don’t Listen to the Climate Doomists. The New Statesman.
In the article "Don’t Listen to the Climate Doomists," the author criticizes the
emerging trend of climate doomism, likening it to a new form of climate skepticism.
Highlighting Jonathan Franzen's fatalistic views on the inevitability of climate
catastrophe, the article argues that such pessimistic narratives hinder progress by
discouraging support for new technologies and climate action. The author advocates
for a more optimistic approach, emphasizing the importance of political and societal
choices to avoid a climate crisis and citing examples of individuals and initiatives
discussed in Katharine Hayhoe's book "Saving Us" as positive contributors to the fight
against climate change.
Nuclear War
Walsh, B. (2022, August 17). What Could a Nuclear War Do to the Climate — and Humanity?
Vox.
The article explores the potential catastrophic consequences of a nuclear war,
focusing on the concept of "nuclear winter." Researchers from Rutgers University
modeled the climatic impacts of a full-scale nuclear war between the US and Russia,
estimating that it could lead to as much as 150 million tons of soot in the
atmosphere, causing a global cooling event. The study suggests that such a scenario
could result in a 90% drop in global calorie production, leading to famine and the
death of an estimated 5 billion people. The article emphasizes the renewed relevance
of nuclear war threats in the current geopolitical landscape and underscores the
urgency of avoiding such catastrophic events.
Francis, M.R. (2017, November 15). When Carl Sagan Warned the World About Nuclear
Winter. Smithsonian Magazine.
The article discusses Carl Sagan's role in popularizing the concept of "nuclear winter"
in 1983, which warned of the catastrophic consequences of even a limited nuclear
war. Sagan, a renowned scientist and public figure, collaborated with other
researchers to demonstrate that the aftermath of nuclear conflict could result in a
deadly period of darkness, famine, toxic gases, and subzero temperatures. Despite
facing criticism for venturing into political advocacy, Sagan aimed to use his fame to
raise awareness about the severe global risks associated with nuclear warfare,
drawing parallels with current debates on climate change and the challenges
scientists face in conveying abstract phenomena to the public.
Metcalfe, T. (2022, March 18). What is Mutual Assured Destruction? Live Science
The concept of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) involves the idea that two
superpowers possessing nuclear weapons could mutually annihilate each other,
forming a basis for deterrence during the Cold War and persisting in contemporary
U.S.-Russia relations. MAD dictates that any nuclear attack would result in a
devastating counterattack, leading to the complete destruction of both parties. While
MAD has prevented direct superpower conflict, the threat endures, as seen in the
aspirations of emerging nuclear states like North Korea and Iran, reflecting a partial
application of the MAD doctrine.
Tannenwald, N. (2023, February 24). The Bomb in the Background. Foreign Affairs
In a recent speech, Russian President Vladimir Putin suspended Russia's participation
in the New START treaty, the last major nuclear arms control agreement with the
United States, and hinted at the possibility of resuming nuclear weapons tests. This
move, coupled with explicit nuclear threats against Ukraine and NATO since Russia's
invasion last February, has raised concerns globally. The article argues that Russia's
nuclear brinkmanship has effectively deterred direct Western intervention in Ukraine,
prolonging the conflict and complicating its resolution while emphasizing the need
for responsible handling of the situation to avoid nuclear escalation.