What is Aggregate Demand? Aggregate- “added all together.” When we use aggregates we combine all prices and all quantities. Aggregate Demand is all the goods and services (real GDP) that buyers are willing and able to purchase at different price levels. The Demand for everything by everyone in the US. There is an inverse relationship between price level and Real GDP. If the price level: • Increases (Inflation), then real GDP demanded falls. • Decreases (deflation), the real GDP demanded increases. Copyright ACDC Leadership 2015 1 Why is AD downward sloping? 1. The Wealth Effect• Higher price levels reduce the purchasing power of money. This decreases the quantity of expenditures • Lower price levels increase purchasing power and increase expenditures 2. Interest-Rate Effect- • When the price level increases, lenders need to charge higher interest rates to get a REAL return on their loans. • Higher interest rates discourage consumer spending and business investment. Copyright ACDC Leadership 2015 2 Why is AD downward sloping? 3. Foreign Trade Effect• When U.S. price level rises, foreign buyers purchase fewer U.S. goods and Americans buy more foreign goods • Exports fall and imports rise causing real GDP demanded to fall. (NX Decreases) Copyright ACDC Leadership 2015 3 Shifters of Aggregate Demand GDP = C + I + G + NX Copyright ACDC Leadership 2015 4 Shifters of Aggregate Demand 1. Change in Consumer Spending Increase in Disposable Income (Higher incomes…) Consumer Expectations (People fear a recession…) Household Indebtedness (More consumer debt…) Taxes (Decrease in income taxes…) 2. Change in Investment Spending Real Interest Rates (Price of borrowing $) (If interest rates increase…) (If interest rates decrease…) Future Business Expectations (High expectations…) Productivity and Technology (New robots…) Business Taxes (Higher corporate taxes means…) Copyright ACDC Leadership 2015 5 Shifters of Aggregate Demand 3. Change in Government Spending Government Expenditures (Decrease in defense spending…) (Increase in public works programs…) 4. Change in Net Exports (X-M) Exchange Rates (If the us dollar depreciates relative to the euro…) National Income Compared to Abroad (If a major importer has a recession…) (If the US has a recession…) AD = GDP = C + I + G + Xn Copyright ACDC Leadership 2015 6 What is Aggregate Supply? Aggregate Supply is the amount of goods and services (real GDP) that firms will produce in an economy at different price levels. The supply for everything by all firms. Aggregate Supply differentiates between short run and long-run and has two different curves. Short-run Aggregate Supply •Wages and Resource Prices will not increase as price levels increase. Long-run Aggregate Supply •Wages and Resource Prices will increase as price levels increase. Copyright ACDC Leadership 2015 7 Short-Run Aggregate Supply In the Short Run, wages and resource prices will NOT increase as price levels increase. Example: • If a firm currently makes 100 units that are sold for $1 each. The only cost is $80 of labor. How much is profit? • Profit = $100 - $80 = $20 What happens in the SHORT-RUN if price level doubles? • Now 100 units sell for $2, TR=$200. How much is profit? • Profit = $120 With higher profits, the firm has the incentive to increase production. Copyright ACDC Leadership 2015 8 Long-Run Aggregate Supply In the Long Run, wages and resource prices WILL increase as price levels increase. Same Example: • The firm has TR of $100 an uses $80 of labor. • Profit = $20. What happens in the LONG-RUN if price level doubles? • Now TR=$200 •In the LONG RUN workers demand higher wages to match prices. So labor costs double to $160 • Profit = $40, but REAL profit is unchanged. If REAL profit doesn’t change the firm has no incentive to increase output. Copyright ACDC Leadership 2015 9 Shifters Aggregate Supply R. A. P. 10 Shifters of Aggregate Supply 1. Change in Resource Prices Prices of Domestic and Imported Resources (Increase in price of Canadian lumber…) (Decrease in price of Chinese steel…) Supply Shocks (Negative Supply shock…) (Positive Supply shock…) Inflationary Expectations (If people expect higher prices in the future…) If producers expect higher prices in the future, workers will demand higher wages and costs will increase. This will decrease AS Copyright ACDC Leadership 2015 11 Shifters of Aggregate Supply 2. Change in Actions of the Government (NOT Government Spending) Taxes on Producers (Lower corporate taxes…) Subsidies for Domestic Producers (Lower subsidies for domestic farmers…) Government Regulations (EPA inspections required to operate a farm…) 3. Change in Productivity Technology (Computer virus that destroy half the computers…) (The advent of a teleportation machine…) Copyright ACDC Leadership 2015 12 Shifters of Aggregate Demand AD = C + I + G + X Change in Consumer Spending Change in Investment Spending Change in Government Spending Net EXport Spending Shifters of Aggregate Supply AS = R + A + P Change in Change in Change in Copyright ACDC Leadership 2015 Resource Prices Actions of the Government Productivity 13 Use the AD and AS model to show an economy at full employment output Price Level LRAS AS PLe AD Copyright ACDC Leadership 2015 QY GDPR 14 The economy can only be in one of three places at any time Capital Goods Max Capacity 0% Unemployment Real GDP Real GDP Consumer Goods Full Employment 5% Unemployment Copyright ACDC Leadership 2015 Time Recessionary Gap Full Employment Inflationary Gap 15 Inflationary Gap Output is high and unemployment is less than NRU LRAS Price Level AS Actual GDP above potential GDP PL1 AD1 Copyright ACDC Leadership 2015 QY Q1 GDPR 16 Recessionary Gap Output low and unemployment is more than NRU LRAS Price Level AS Actual GDP below potential GDP PL1 AD1 Copyright ACDC Leadership 2015 Q1 QY GDPR 17 Example: If there is a negative “supply shock” of oil. What happens to PL and Output? Price Level LRAS AS1 AS Stagflation PL1 Stagnate Economy + Inflation PLe Still considered recessionary gap AD Copyright ACDC Leadership 2015 Q1 QY GDPR 18 What Happens In the Long-Run? Copyright ACDC Leadership 2015 19 If consumer spending increases, what will happen in the short-run and in the long-run? In the long-run, wages and costs increase LRAS AS1 Real GDP Price Level AS PL2 Real GDP PL1 PLe AD AD1 Copyright ACDC Leadership 2015 QY Q1 GDPR Time 20 If consumer spending decreases, what will happen in the short-run and in the long-run? In the long-run, wages & costs eventually decrease LRAS Price Level AS Real GDP AS2 PLe PL1 Real GDP PL2 AD2 AD Copyright ACDC Leadership 2015 Q1 QY GDPR Time 21 The first situation is when an economy experiences a short-run increase in aggregate demand. This occurs anytime that the components of consumer spending, investment spending, government spending, and net exports increase, causing GDP to increase. When there is a short-run increase in AD, the price level and real GDP increase. Since wages and prices are flexible in the long-run, we will see an increase in both of these after this change in AD. An increase in wages means resource costs are increasing, which makes it more expensive for firms to produce their goods. As a result, we will see a decrease in SRAS. This is the economy self-correcting itself back to potential output. We will have a higher price level , but our real GDP will return to potential output. 22 An example of this could be that businesses decide to spend money to improve their factories. This will cause an increase in aggregate demand which leads to an inflationary gap in the short run. Since wages and resource prices are sticky, we know that eventually, they will rise in the long run. This will lead to production costs increasing for firms and as a result, they will decrease their supply which is shown by a decrease in short-run aggregate supply. 23 The second situation is when an economy experiences a short-run decrease in aggregate demand. This involves anytime that the components of consumer spending, investment spending, government spending, and net exports decrease causing GDP to increase. When there is a short-run decrease in AD, the price level and real GDP decrease. Since wages and prices are flexible in the long-run, we will see a decrease in both of these after this change in AD. A decrease in wages means resource costs are decreasing, making it less expensive for firms to produce their goods. As a result, we will see an increase in SRAS. This is the economy self-correcting itself back to potential output. We will have a lower price level but our real GDP will return to potential output. 24 An example of this could be if consumers are worried about the health of the economy and so they cut back on their spending which causes the decrease in aggregate demand in the short run. As wages and resources prices adjust in the long run, we will see a decrease in these. Once wages and resource prices decrease than businesses will have lower production costs which will lead to an increase in short run aggregate supply. 25 26 The third situation is when the economy experiences a short-run decrease in aggregate supply (SRAS). This causes inflation and leads to a recessionary gap (negative output gap). Again, since prices and wages are flexible, this will result in worker's wages decreasing because the economy is experiencing a recessionary gap. The movement from SRAS to SRAS1 shows this. Since the worker's wages are decreasing, there is a decrease in production costs for firms. This will cause the economy to self-correct by moving from SRAS1 back to SRAS. 27 28 The fourth situation is when the economy experiences a short-run increase in aggregate supply. This leads to deflation and causes an inflationary gap (positive output gap). When there is a short-run increase in aggregate supply, it causes an inflationary gap (move from SRAS to SRAS1). This causes an increase in output. Worker's wages are going to increase due to the increase in production. This increase in wages will then cause production costs to increase for firms. This will then cause a decrease in aggregate supply (SRAS1 to SRAS) bringing the economy back to long-run equilibrium. This is how the economy self corrects itself after a short-run increase in aggregate supply. 29 30 If investment increases, what happens in the short-run and long-run? Capital Stock- Machinery and tools purchased by businesses that increase their output LRAS LRAS1 AS AS1 PL1 PLe Copyright ACDC Leadership 2015 QY AD1 AD Q1 QY1 GDPR Capital Goods Price Level The PPC shifts outward since producers can make more Consumer Goods 31 An increase in consumption or government spending doesn’t cause economic growth. Only Investment causes growth since firms increase their capital stock LRAS1 AS1 Capital Goods Price Level PLe AD1 Copyright ACDC Leadership 2015 QY1 GDPR Consumer Goods 32