Prepared by: Mr Josef Akuunda ICT Core Content Month 1 Notes ICT Mentorship Core Content Month 1 Notes The ICT Core Content Month 1 Notes is a comprehensive resource for traders who are new to Smart Money Concepts (SMC). The notes cover the fundamental concepts of SMC, including order blocks, fair value gaps, liquidity pools, and equilibrium. They also discuss the different contexts or frameworks in which these concepts can be used, such as expansion, retracement, reversal, and consolidation. 4 Elements of Trading Setups 1.Expansion: Price goes rapidly away from the equilibrium level. Whenever a price breaks through a level, it indicates that market participants are willing to divulge their independent repricing model. Market participants exit the order block near the equilibrium le Page | 1 2.Retracement: When the price re-enters a recent price range, it suggests that market makers are open to adjusting prices to levels that have not been efficiently traded for fair value. What we focus on in terms of price are the Fair Value Gap (FVG) and liquidity voids. 3.Reversal A reversal occurs when the price changes direction, moving opposite to its current trend. Price moves against the IPDA direction, indicating Smart Money’s liquidity run and potential large moves. Observe Liquidity Pools near old highs/lows. Page | 2 4.Consolidation: Consolidation is when price is moving inside a clear trading range. When prices are consolidated it shows the market maker placing orders on both sides of the market. This is mainly due to manipulate the un informed money Page | 3 Reference Points in Institutional Order Flow: Order Blocks: Significant levels where price reacts, often providing trading opportunities. Fair Value Gaps & Liquidity Voids: Price gaps suggesting objectives for profits or new setups. Liquidity Pools: Areas of low resistance leading to liquidity, common around old highs/lows. Equilibrium: Balanced market state, crucial for understanding market sentiment. Understanding Market Efficiency Paradigm: The Role of “Smart Money”: Smart money influences price and uninformed traders. The Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA): AI-based efficient pricing mechanism with manipulation potential. True Day Daily Range and “Dead Time”: IPDA defines daily range; certain periods are “dead time.” How Market Makers Condition The Market Context of Framework Surrounding the idea 1. Expansion=Judas Swing Page | 4 2. Retracement=New York Session 3. Reversal=London Swing 4. Consolidation=Asian Range. Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm Price show daily these phenomenon due to the IPDA (Inter Bank Price Delivery Algorithm) General Daily Price Movement Structure: Equilibrium Manipulation Expansion Reversal Retracement Consolidation Page | 5 Everything starts with a consolidation Next stage is always an expansion, impulse price swing up or down Once were in the expansion phase it can retrace to an order Block it left behind or it can reverse and once it reverses we move back into another expansion and then it goes back into a consolidation Certainly! Here’s a comprehensive table that covers all the possible and not possible transitions based on the given rules: Page | 6 STAGE TRANSITION POSSIBLE Consolidation → Expansion Possible Expansion → Retracement Possible Expansion → Reversal Possible NO Retracement → Expansion Ret Retracement → Reversal Reversal → Expansion Rev Reversal → Retracement Retracement to where it expanded from → Expansion → Another Leg Up/Down Possible Retracement to where it expanded from → Expansion → Reversal Possible Stage Transition Possible Not ———————————————– ———————————— —– —— — Consolidation → Expansion Possible Expansion → Retracement Possible Expansion → Reversal Possible Retracement → Expansion Ret Retracement → Reversal Reversal → Expansion Rev Reversal → Retracement Retracement to where it expanded from → Expansion → Another Leg Up/Down Possible Retracement to where it expanded from → Expansion → Reversal Possible Page | 7 This comprehensive table highlights the possible and not possible transitions between different stages, as per the provided rules. Possible Phase Transitions: Consolidation → Expansion: The initial phase often begins with consolidation, where price movement remains within a narrow range. This can transition into an expansion phase, characterized by increased activity and movement as traders react to new information. Expansion → Retracement or Reversal: Within the expansion phase, the market can either experience a retracement, where prices pull back temporarily before continuing in the same direction, or a reversal, where the trend changes direction entirely. Retracement → Expansion or Reversal: A retracement, which involves a temporary pullback in prices, can be followed by either an expansion phase or a reversal, depending on how traders react to the retracement. Reversal → Expansion or Retracement: Following a reversal, where the trend direction changes, the market can enter either an expansion phase or a retracement, as traders adapt to the new direction. Expansion → Retracement → Another Leg Up/Down: After an expansion phase, a retracement may occur, followed by another price movement in the same direction, often resulting in another leg up or down in the overall trend. Expansion → Reversal: In the expansion phase, a trend reversal can occur, leading to a shift in price direction. Not Possible Phase Transitions: Consolidation → Reversal: A direct transition from consolidation to reversal is not likely, as consolidation represents a phase of price stabilization, whereas reversal involves a significant change in trend direction. Page | 8 Consolidation → Retracement: Similarly, a direct transition from consolidation to retracement is unlikely, as consolidation involves a range-bound price movement, while retracement implies a temporary pullback in an existing trend. Consolidation → Expansion → Consolidation: After an expansion phase, transitioning directly back into another consolidation is not a common occurrence. The expansion phase typically leads to further price movement or potential retracement/reversal. Retracement → Reversal: Transitioning directly from a retracement to a reversal without an intermediate expansion phase is improbable, as retracement represents a temporary pause within a trend, whereas reversal involves a fundamental shift in trend direction. These rules help describe the logical sequence of market phases and provide insights into the dynamics of price movements. Understanding the Daily Price Movement of Financial Markets 1. Asia Consolidation: The day often starts with a period of price consolidation during the Asian trading session. This phase reflects a cautious approach as the market digests overnight developments. 2. Expansion and London Reversal: As the day progresses, the market typically transitions into an expansion phase. This is followed by a potential reversal in trends during the London trading session, which often establishes the high or low of the day. 3. New York Consolidation: The New York trading session may witness a smaller consolidation phase, characterized by narrower price ranges as traders assess the evolving sentiment. 4. Retracement and Further Expansion: Around 800-830 GMT, a retracement might occur, leading to a brief pullback. This is often followed by another phase of expansion as price movements regain momentum. Page | 9 5. Late Reversal and Final Consolidation: The day could conclude with a reversal in trends and a subsequent consolidation phase as traders wind down their activities. PHASE DESCRIPTION Asia Consolidation Cautious price movement during the Asian session, evaluating overnight news. Expansion and London Reversal Increased activity, potential reversal in London session, establishing high/low of the day. New York Consolidation Narrower price ranges in New York session as traders assess sentiment. Retracement Expansion Late Reversal Consolidation and and Further Final Pullback followed by renewed price momentum around 800-830 GMT. Late-day reversal in trends, concluding with consolidation as trading winds down. This pattern reflects the interplay of global trading sessions and trader behavior throughout the day. When you have HTF bias understood it becomes easy to know what price will do The weekly price movement in financial markets follows a recurring sequence: 1. Sunday Open Consolidation: The week often begins with price consolidation on the Sunday open, reflecting a cautious approach as traders assess the weekend developments. 2. Monday Expansion: As the trading week gains momentum, Monday is typically marked by an expansion phase. This reflects increased activity and movement as traders react to new information. 3. Tuesday Reversal: The following day, Tuesday, often witnesses a reversal in price trends. This can be attributed to traders reassessing their positions after the initial expansion phase. 4. Wednesday Expansion: Midweek, the market tends to experience another expansion phase. This reflects a renewed bout of activity and movement in response to evolving market dynamics. Page | 10 5. Thursday Consolidation: On Thursday, there’s often a consolidation phase. Price ranges may narrow as traders assess the overall sentiment and prepare for the end of the trading week. 6. Midweek Friday Reverse or Retrace: As the week approaches its close, Friday may see a reversal or retracement in trends. Traders might adjust their positions before the weekend, leading to a shift in price direction. In summary, the weekly price movement follows a pattern of consolidation, expansion, reversal, expansion again, consolidation, and a potential reverse or retracement, all of which are influenced by trader behavior and market dynamics. DAY PHASE DESCRIPTION Sunday Open Consolidation Cautious approach as the week starts with price consolidation. Monday Expansion Increased activity and movement in response to new information. Tuesday Reversal Trend reversal as traders reassess positions. Wednesday Expansion Renewed activity and movement midweek. Thursday Consolidation Narrower price ranges as traders prepare for the week’s end. Friday (Midweek) Reverse or Retrace Potential reversal or retracement before the weekend. This weekly cycle reflects the rhythm of market sentiment and participant actions throughout the trading week. 6. Practical Trading Strategies for New Traders: Utilize Old Highs and Lows for Buy/Sell Stops. Identify Liquidity Pools for efficient trade entry. Recognize Three-Candle Patterns for swing highs/lows. 7. Other Key Concepts: Page | 11 Fair Value Gap :Price returns to levels it moved from; suitable for profit-taking. Low Resistance Liquidity Run: Price encounters little resistance on its way to areas of liquidity. Market Protraction (Judas Swing): Sudden move opposite to daily range direction; indicates micro expansion. ICT Core Content Month 02 -Part-2 Framing Low-Risk Trade Setups What makes the setup worth taking? 1) Selecting trade setups on higher time frame charts is ideal: Trading on higher time frames provides a broader perspective of market trends and reduces the noise associated with lower time frames. It allows for more accurate analysis and decisionmaking. 2) Large institutions and banks analyze markets on a Daily, Weekly, and Monthly basis: Aligning with the analysis and actions of large institutions and banks increases the likelihood of profitable trades, as these entities often have a significant influence on market movements. 3) Locating price levels that align with institutional order flow is key: Identifying price levels that correspond with institutional order flow enhances the probability of successful trades, as these levels are likely to attract significant buying or selling interest. 4) Higher time frame setups form slowly and provide ample time to plan accordingly: Setups on higher time frames tend to evolve gradually, allowing traders more time to analyze and plan their trades meticulously, resulting in well-informed decisions and potentially lower risk. Page | 12 B. What can we do to lower the risk in the trade? 1) The higher time frame has more influence on price, so we focus on the following: Emphasizing higher time frames for analysis and decision-making helps in identifying more significant trends and reducing the impact of short-term price fluctuations, which can lead to more consistent and less risky trades. 2) The conditions that lend to a trade setup on a higher time frame can be refined to lower time frames: Adapting the analysis and conditions from higher time frames to lower time frames allows for a more detailed assessment of potential trade setups while retaining the overall higher time frame trend perspective, aiding in risk reduction. 3) Transpose the higher time frame levels to lower time frame charts: Transposing key levels and insights from higher time frames to lower time frames helps in Page | 13 pinpointing entry and exit points more precisely, contributing to tighter stop-loss placement and reduced risk. 4) Refining higher time frame levels to lower time frame charts allows smaller stop loss placement and risk: By honing in on lower time frame details while aligning with higher time frame analysis, traders can set smaller stop losses, reducing potential losses and overall risk in the trade. 2022 ICT Mentorship Model Episode 1(Notes) Welcome to the first episode of ICT Mentorship 2022, where we delve into the world of Inner Circle Trader (ICT) and explore his trading strategies and insights. In this blogpost, we focus on the important elements of a trade setup, including identifying liquidity and imbalances, using Fibonacci levels and the 50% marker, and timing trades during the sweet spot of 8:30 am to 11:00 am EST. We’ll also discuss the concept of the Fair Value Gap (FVG) and how to use it to enter and exit trades. Join us as we explore the world of ICT and learn valuable trading techniques for success in the markets. Key Point of ICT Model 2022 Episode 1 Wait for the Start of London or New York Kill Zones Wait Algorithm Take Buy Side or Sell Side Liquidity Wait for the shift in market Structure Wait Market Fill The Fair Value Gap Page | 14 Explanation of ICT Mentoship 2022 Episode 1 To set up a trade, first mark the buy-side and sell-side liquidity on the 15-minute timeframe. Wait for the start of the New York “kill zone” and watch for the market to hunt sell stops or grab sellside liquidity before the actual movement begins. When the market moves in an upward direction or there is a shift in market structure, wait for the occurrence of a Fair Value Gap (FVG), which is a three-candlestick pattern. The market will come down to fill the FVG and then move in an upward direction. Set the trade target at equal highs or liquidity. Sell or buy-side liquidity can be found in the form of Asian High or Low, London High or Low, or the previous day’s high or low. Overall, it’s important to anticipate stop hunts and look for sources of liquidity when expecting lower or higher prices. Using Fibonacci levels and the 50% point can help determine market direction and where algorithms may push the market. And for ICT, the sweet spot for trading is between 8:30 am to 11:00 am EST. Page | 15 This chart shows the EURUSD market. Initially, the market targeted the buy side liquidity or buy stops to move in a downward direction. Following this, a shift in market structure occurred, leaving an inefficiency in the form of a Fair Value Gap. The market then moved up to fill the FVG and continued in a downward direction. This XAUUSD market chart highlights how the market initially targeted sell side liquidity or sell stops to move in an upward direction. As a result of this move, a shift in the market structure occurred, creating an inefficiency in the form of a Fair Value Gap. The market then continued to move upward and filled the FVG, maintaining its upward momentum. 2022 ICT Mentorship Model Episode 2 (Notes) Elements To A Trade Setup In Episode 2 Mentorship of 2022 Michael Huddleston Discuss the element of trade Page | 16 Price targets FVGs and liquidity 1. When you expect prices to go down, be aware that there might be attempts to trigger buy orders or take out recent highs before the downward movement occurs. Similarly, when you expect prices to go up, there might be attempts to trigger sell orders or take out recent lows before the upward movement happens. Page | 17 Short-term lows in prices can act as areas where sell orders are placed, creating liquidity in the market. Important Time Frame Charts with 1-minute, 2-minute, and 3-minute time frames are considered useful for identifying imbalances in the market, especially for indices. The 5-minute chart allows more imbalances to develop compared to the shorter time frames. The term “FVG” is unclear without additional context, but it suggests entering a trade at a specific point, setting a stop order at the next candle above that point, and exiting the trade where there is liquidity. How to determine what next weekly candle is going to do? Before the start of a new trading week, it can be helpful to consider the potential direction of the next weekly candlestick. Instead of trying to predict the exact closing price, the focus is on determining whether the next weekly candlestick is more likely to move higher or lower. Page | 18 By analyzing various factors such as market trends, indicators, and other relevant information, traders can make an assessment of whether the next weekly candlestick is expected to have an upward bias (go higher) or a downward bias (go lower). This helps in forming a directional outlook for the upcoming week. FACTORS THAT WILL IMPACT THE WEEKLY CANDLE Here are simplified explanations of the mentioned concepts: 1. Seasonal Tendencies: Seasonal tendencies refer to patterns or trends that occur during specific times of the year in various markets or industries. These patterns are based on historical data and can provide insights into the potential behavior of prices or market conditions during certain seasons or time periods. 2. Interest Rates: Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money, set by central banks or monetary authorities. Changes in interest rates can have a significant impact on various financial markets, including Page | 19 bonds, currencies, and equities. Generally, higher interest rates can affect borrowing costs, consumer spending, and investment decisions, thereby influencing market conditions. 3. Earning Seasons & Quarterly Earnings Reports: Earning seasons are specific time periods during which many publicly traded companies release their quarterly earnings reports. These reports provide financial information about a company’s performance, including revenue, profits, and future outlook. The release of quarterly earnings reports can have a substantial impact on stock prices, as it provides investors and analysts with insights into a company’s financial health and can influence market sentiment. 4. Price Action on Weekly and Daily Charts: Price action refers to the movement and behavior of prices on charts over time. Analyzing price action on both weekly and daily charts is a common practice in technical analysis. Traders study patterns, trends, support and resistance levels, and other chart formations to make informed decisions about buying or selling assets. Weekly charts provide a broader view of price trends and patterns, while daily charts offer more detailed information on short-term price movements. Remember that these concepts are subject to market dynamics, and it’s essential to conduct thorough research, utilize appropriate analysis tools, and consider other factors when making trading or investment decisions. Daily Candle Price Action When analyzing price action on the daily chart, it can be helpful to consider the following question: Where are the liquidity pools that price can potentially reach, taking into account the assumptions made based on the weekly chart? Page | 20 Liquidity pools represent areas in the market where there is a concentration of orders, such as buy or sell orders. These areas can act as support or resistance levels and influence price movements. It is often observed that the daily chart provides more significant insights and opportunities to analyze liquidity pools. Therefore, it is advisable to dedicate the majority of your time and analysis to the daily chart. By focusing on the daily chart, you can receive feedback and observe price movements every 24 hours, aligning with the progress of the weekly candle. This allows for more detailed analysis and potential identification of key levels or patterns within the daily timeframe. Train your eyes to see these patterns on lower time frame Page | 21 For Bullish Pattern For Bearish Scenario Summary Market makers have predefined target where the algorithm move the price. If the price move high we expect market first take sell side liquidity and buy side liquidity when move high or bullish. Page | 22 2022 ICT Mentorship Model Episode 3 (Notes) Internal Range Liquidity & Market Structure Shifts In Episode 3 of the ICT Mentorship 2022 program, Michael Huddleston explores the fascinating topic of internal range market structure break and shift. The main focus of Episode 3 is to explain internal range market structure break and shift. Huddleston simplifies this complex concept, providing step-by-step explanations to help traders comprehend the dynamics of market structures. By understanding how market structures within an internal range can break and shift, traders can make more informed decisions about their trades. MARKET STRUCTURE BREAKS A market structure break is a significant event that occurs when the established pattern of price movements in a market is disrupted, leading to a prolonged movement in a multi-day trend. When a market structure break occurs, it indicates a potential shift in the overall market sentiment and can lead to sustained price movement in a particular direction. Page | 23 MARKET STRUCTURE SHIFT A market structure shift refers to a noticeable change in the pattern or behavior of price movements within a single trading day. It often leads to an intra-day draw, which means that price is drawn towards specific levels or areas of interest. During a market structure shift, intra-day liquidity pools or intra-day fair value gaps play a crucial role. Intra-day liquidity pools represent areas in the market where there is a concentration of orders, such as buy or sell orders. These pools act as support or resistance levels and can attract price towards them during a market structure shift. Similarly, intra-day fair value gaps refer to the price gaps that occur between the previous day’s closing price and the next day’s opening price. These gaps occur due to overnight news, economic releases, or other market-moving events. Intra-day fair value gaps can influence price behavior and draw price towards the fair value level during a market structure shift. Page | 24 Traders closely monitor intra-day liquidity pools and fair value gaps as they provide insights into potential levels of support or resistance and areas where price may gravitate during market structure shifts. By understanding and effectively utilizing these intra-day dynamics, traders can make more informed trading decisions and potentially capitalize on short-term price movements. AREAS OF INTEREST When analyzing price for market structure shifts, there are specific elements to focus on: For a Bullish Market Structure (MS) Shift: Look for an old low or clean low that could act as a support level. This indicates a potential shift towards a more bullish sentiment. For a Bearish Market Structure (MS) Shift: Look for an old high or clean high that could act as a resistance level. This suggests a potential shift towards a more bearish sentiment. Important Time Frame and Session for Liquidity Highs and lows of the Asian Session (8:00 PM to 12:00 AM): This period is relevant for identifying liquidity pools and potential support/resistance levels established during the Asian trading session. Highs and lows of the London Session (2:00 AM to 5:00 AM): This timeframe is important for determining liquidity pools and key levels of support/resistance created during the London trading session. Highs and lows of the NY Session (7:00 AM to 10:00 AM): This session is significant for identifying liquidity pools and crucial levels of support/resistance that emerge during the New York trading session. Page | 25 Intra-day highs and lows before Equity Opening at 9:30 AM: Pay attention to the price levels established before the official equity market opening. These intra-day highs and lows can provide insights into potential liquidity areas and support/resistance levels. By analyzing price and liquidity in these specific contexts, traders can gain a better understanding of market dynamics and make more informed trading decisions. Points of interest where Market Structure Shifts can occur are typically identified : Areas of Support and Resistance: Market Structure Shifts often occur when price breaks through key levels of support or resistance e.g session high or low It is important to note that Market Structure Shifts should not be forced or anticipated without valid signals. Traders should wait for price action to validate their analysis before considering a Market Structure Shift. Page | 26 High-frequency trading algorithms often utilize Market Structure information on shorter timeframes, such as 5, 4, 3, 2, or 1-minute charts. These algorithms seek to capitalize on shortterm price movements and may contribute to increased volatility during potential Market Structure Shifts. Significant Market Structure Shifts often coincide with price taking out liquidity in the market. This means that when price surpasses key support or resistance levels, it can lead to a notable change in market dynamics, attracting more participation from traders and algorithms. By monitoring these points of interest and paying attention to price behavior and liquidity dynamics, traders can identify potential Market Structure Shifts and adjust their trading strategies accordingly. ICT Episode 3 Summary 1. We find POI on Session high or low. We Anticipate Drawn of Liquidity either on buy side or sell side. 2. After drawn on liquidity wait for market structure shift Page | 27 3. After MSS take enters on the base of FVG or imbalance align with our daily bias. ICT Core Content Month 02-Part 4 (Market Makers Trap) False Bull Flags in Price Action 1. Misleading Price Rallies: Not every sudden price rally followed by a short-term consolidation is a genuine Bull Flag. This can mislead traders into premature actions. 2. Mature Bull Trends and Distribution Levels: In mature bull trends or high-time-frame (HTF) distribution levels, prices might display false Bull Flags, tricking retail traders. 3. Classic Patterns Resulting in Reversals: Retail traders often perceive these patterns as continuation buy signals, but they may actually indicate a reversal. Understanding higher time frame charts and premium markets is crucial for accurate identification. False Bear Flags in Price Action Page | 28 1. Deceptive Price Declines: Similar to false bull flags, not all sudden price declines followed by short-term consolidations are genuine Bear Flags. 2. Mature Bear Trends and Accumulation Levels: Within mature bear trends or HTF accumulation levels, price movements can create false Bear Flags, confusing traders. 3. Classic Patterns Leading to Reversals: Traders might perceive these patterns as continuation sell signals, but they could signify a reversal instead. Understanding higher time frame charts and discount markets is vital for accurate identification. False Breakouts Above Price Consolidations: 1. Typical Manifestation in Primary Bearish Markets: False breakouts above price consolidations often occur within primary bearish markets, where downward trends dominate. 2. Market Movement into a Trading Range: When the market reaches a state of equilibrium in price, it tends to move into a trading range, creating a consolidation phase. 3. Bracketing the Trading Range with Orders: Neophyte and breakout traders commonly place their orders around the trading range, expecting a breakout to happen. Page | 29 4. Market Makers’ Strategy: Market makers strategically send prices above the range to trigger and neutralize buy stops, causing a false breakout and catching traders off guard. False Breakouts Below Price Consolidations: 1. Typical Manifestation in Primary Bullish Markets: False breakouts below price consolidations are prevalent in primary bullish markets, characterized by upward trends. 2. Market Movement into a Trading Range: Similar to bearish markets, during a bullish trend, when the price reaches equilibrium, it enters a trading range. 3. Bracketing the Trading Range with Orders: Neophyte and breakout traders also place their orders around the trading range in this scenario, expecting a breakout. 4. Market Makers’ Strategy: Market makers strategically send prices below the range to trigger and neutralize sell stops, creating a false breakout and surprising traders. Avoiding the False Breakout Trap: Understanding the market’s primary trend and equilibrium points is fundamental. Recognizing the intentions of market makers to trigger stop orders is crucial to avoid falling into the false breakout trap. Page | 30 As traders, staying informed, being cautious with stop orders, and not solely relying on breakout patterns can help mitigate the risk of false breakouts. Emphasizing comprehensive market analysis and prudent decision-making will contribute to a successful trading journey. By keeping a watchful eye and maintaining discipline, traders can navigate the market more effectively and avoid the snares set by false breakouts. 2022 ICT MENTORSHIP EPISODE 5 Future Index In this episode 5 Hudelston first discuss Index Futures, and discuss about their basic. ESH2022 – ESM2022 – EMINI S&P ESU2022 – EMINI S&P EMINI S&P 500 March 2022 Contract 500 June 2022 Contract 500 Sept 2022 Contract ESZ2022 – EMINI S&P 500 Dec. 2022 Contract 15 mint time frame The 15-minute time frame is crucial in our trading strategy. During this period, we focus on identifying key highs and lows, imbalances, fair value gaps, and order blocks. We pay particular attention to the London or New York kill zones, where we expect algorithms to seek liquidity by either buying or selling. In our trading routine, we start in the morning between 8:30 AM and 12:00 PM. We aim to position ourselves in a trade before 11:00 AM, which allows us to ride the market movement during the NY Lunch and Afternoon Session. Page | 31 Before 8:30 AM, we look for potential price levels that could act as significant highs or lows. This helps us identify areas where stop hunts might occur. Once we have analyzed the 15-minute chart and identified relevant market conditions, we switch to the 5-minute chart for precise entry points. This allows us to make well-timed trades based on the information gathered. The 15 Minute Chart will help “frame” your day The 3 Drives Pattern: We pay close attention to a specific pattern on the 15-minute chart. If we see an old high marked, we look for three consecutive drives towards a liquidity pool. It’s important to note that during the third drive, we don’t need to see the liquidity pool being targeted again. The reason is that the market has already been depleting short-term liquidity each time it reaches a new short-term high. This behavior is how smart money establishes a new position. After these three drives, we expect to see a displacement, which is a significant and noticeable shift in price. This is a crucial moment we anticipate and why we closely monitor the chart. The displacement should be obvious, similar to an elephant jumping into a children’s pool and causing a scene. Remember, if we have already witnessed three drives towards the liquidity pool, there is no need for the pool to be targeted again during the third drive. The market has already exhausted its short-term liquidity with each successive drive into a new short-term high. Page | 32 The step-by-step protocol for Morning Trades. Here’s a simplified version of the steps in your trading strategy: 1. Before 8:30 AM, we identify a liquidity pool in the market. 2. We look for a displacement in price movement that occurs below the liquidity pool. 3. We use the concept of a fair value gap (FVG) to determine our entry point. The FVG indicates a price level where we expect the market to move towards an opposing level. By following these steps, we aim to capitalize on market opportunities and make informed trading decisions. These patterns will sometimes not work. This is why it’s important to practice proper Risk Management. Page | 33 2022 ICT Mentorship Model Episode 6 (Notes) Mastering Fair Value Gaps and Market Structure Shifts in Trading In episode 6th of mentorship 2022 ICT discuss smart money, fair value gap and the most important factor is time. Understanding Smart Money: Smart money, comprising liquidity providers, aims to exploit retail traders’ lack of knowledge and consistency. Rather than relying on indicators or technical analysis, smart money focuses solely on liquidity. By embracing this mindset, we can align ourselves with the strategies employed by these successful traders. Trading Against Retail Traders: To emulate smart money, we adopt a contrarian approach. Instead of blindly following patterns or momentum indicators, we enter long positions when retail traders are selling and short positions when they are buying. By anticipating price movements driven by liquidity-seeking behavior, we gain a competitive edge in the market. The Significance of Timing: Timing is crucial in our trading strategy. We closely monitor specific moments in the day when liquidity shifts occur. For example, bearish fair value gaps materialize after a surge in buy-side liquidity. Recognizing the formation of a three-candle pattern, we patiently wait for the price to tap back into the fair value gap before executing a short trade. Fair Value Gaps: Page | 34 Similarly, bullish fair value gaps emerge after a surge in sell-side liquidity. By observing specific candle patterns, we identify opportune moments to enter long positions. The fair value gap acts as a catalyst for price movement, and we capitalize on this inefficiency to make profitable trades. Fair Value Gaps manifest as a three-candle sequence on price charts. They are visually characterized by a large candle surrounded by neighboring candles whose upper and lower wicks do not entirely overlap the large candle. This pattern indicates a temporary disruption in market equilibrium, drawing the attention of price action traders. Market Structure Shifts: Market structure shifts play a crucial role in our trading approach. In a bearish shift, the price Page | 35 establishes higher highs before swiftly plummeting below previous lows. We anticipate the formation of a fair value gap within this price range. Conversely, in a bullish shift, the price forms lower lows before making a vigorous upward move, closing above previous highs. Our aim is to identify and capitalize on these shifts by strategically entering trades. Conclusion: By mastering the art of fair value gaps and market structure shifts, traders can gain a competitive edge and move away from the common pitfalls faced by retail traders. 2022 ICT Mentorship Model Episode 7 (Notes) In 2022 ICT Mentor Ship Episode 7 ict explain how to make narrative WHAT IS THE NARRATIVE? Have we taken out Liquidity? Then it is likely to retrace inside the Range. The most important concept in ICT 2022 mentorship is liquidity. If Algo take the liquidity, then mostly price is retracing inside the range. There is a question for newbies what is range? Range is pricing level where algorithm recently hunt liquidity. Page | 36 Have we re balanced an FVG? Then it is likely to expand towards Liquidity. WHAT IS THE PRESENT DEALING RANGE? Are We at Premium zone Logically When we are at premium zone or Algorithm take buy side liquidity we anticipate price will go down. Page | 37 Are we at discount zone Similarly when we at discount zone or algorithm take sell side liquidity we see higher prices Are we at equilibrium zone Most difficulty to predict next moves INTER MARKET ANALYSIS (SMT): In Inter market analysis we use SMT divergence SMT Divergence serves as a confirmation tool for identifying Accumulation/Distribution phases in trading. It is not typically used as an entry pattern on its own. By observing SMT Divergence, traders can gain insights into potential Stop Hunts in the market and make more informed decisions. Page | 38 However, it is important to note that SMT Divergence should be used in conjunction with a clear understanding of the market’s direction. Utilizing SMT as a confirmation tool follows the principle of analyzing time and price theory to enhance trading accuracy and effectiveness. ICT Daily Bias Explained One of the cornerstones of Inner Circle Trader’s 2022 mentorship model is the concept of ICT daily bias. This blog post will provide insights into understanding daily bias, guiding you in identifying key factors essential for establishing a robust daily bias in your trading strategy. Understanding the ICT Daily Bias in Trading Page | 39 The concept of daily bias revolves around the identification of sell-side and buy-side liquidity, fair value gaps, order blocks, volume imbalances, and recent highs and lows. These elements collectively represent draws on liquidity, guiding market movement from one liquidity pocket to another. The approach involves analyzing these aspects on both weekly and daily timeframes, recognizing that price behavior and respect for these elements may vary with the timeframe. Fractality of Price Movement Price movement in trading is fractal, meaning that patterns and behaviors observed on higher timeframes like weekly often mirror those on lower timeframes like daily. However, lower timeframes may exhibit more noise and are prone to greater price disrespect of identified trends and patterns. Utilizing Weekly Bias for Daily Analysis Understanding the weekly market trend is essential for establishing a clear daily bias. If the weekly trend is bullish, for instance, the focus on a daily timeframe would involve identifying opportunities to go long and targeting specific highs for potential trades. Step-by-Step Approach For Developing ICT Daily Bias. Step 1 To establish a daily bias, begin by analyzing the D1 timeframe on the chart. According to Michle Hudleston, Institutional traders and banks utilize the daily chart to execute their orders effectively. Page | 40 As shown in the chart above, start by marking the recent swing high and swing low using the trend line tool. This marking should be done at the beginning of the week, aiming to anticipate the direction of price movement rather than pinpointing the precise value it will reach. Step 2 The second step involves identifying the drawn-on liquidity. Determine whether the recent algorithm activity leans towards sell-side or buy-side liquidity on the daily timeframe. If the price has recently swept the sell-side liquidity, there is a strong likelihood that the next drawn-on liquidity will be buy-side, and vice versa. In the chart below, you can observe that the price has recently interacted with sell-side liquidity, and the next anticipated drawn-on liquidity is on the buy-side. Learn to trade with liquidity Page | 41 Step 3 For the third step in establishing the ICT daily bias, examine whether the price is within a premium or discount zone. If the price resides in the premium zone, your bias should lean towards a short position. Conversely, if the price is in the discount zone or below 50%, your bias should favor a long position. Page | 42 Step 4 Are there any fair value gaps or order blocks that substantiate your analysis? ICT forex essentials to trading the daily bias The following concepts are the funding of Daily Bias Page | 43 Liquidity Premium and Discount Zones Fair Value Gaps Order Blocks Breaker Block ICT Daily bias is a fundamental concept that can significantly enhance your trading success. By comprehending the market’s daily direction, traders can strategically position themselves for profitable trades. Incorporating daily bias analysis in your trading approach can prove to be a game-changer. ICT Kill Zones Time Asia London New York Page | 44 In the fast-paced world of forex trading, timing is everything. While the forex market operates 24 hours a day, not all hours offer the same trading opportunities. That’s where ICT Kill Zones Times come into play. Forex kill zones are the time when high probability trading setup formed These strategic time frames can open up a world of possibilities for traders who know how to leverage them. In this blog post, we’ll explore the concept of ICT Kill Zones ‘ times and how they can lead to high-probability trade setups and potential profits. The ICT Asian Kill Zone Times: The Dawn of Opportunities The Asian Kill Zone is the first of the strategic periods in the forex market. It is particularly relevant for traders dealing with the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Japanese yen pairs, as these markets are most active during this time. Learn more about ICT Macro Strategy Page | 45 What makes the Asian Kill Zone special is its volatility, driven by economic news releases that occur during this session. Traders who keep an eye on these news releases and their impact on the market can make the most of this period. Main Characteristics of Asian Kill Zone During the Asian Kill Zone, traders can often find optimal trade entry patterns, offering potential gains of 15 to 20 pips for scalp trades. NZD, and JPY pairs are ideal for this time of the day. The Asian Open can sometimes set up an Optimal Trade Entry Pattern that can offer a 15 – 20 pip scalp. The Higher frame bias is helpful here – but short-term retracements in either Bull or Bear Markets can offer similar OTE Setups. Page | 46 “USD is usually quiet, less manipulation with USD, so all the movement is going to be done with by using the crosses”“so if you look for a strong currency against a weak currency during this time of the day, and get an OTE pattern, you’ll get many times a wonderful opportunity to trade during a typical slow period of the 24 hour banking cycle” Inner Circle Trader Asian Kill Zone Time ICT Asian Kill Zone Times lies in between 8:00 PM Eastern to10:00 PM Eastern ICT London Kill Zone Time The ICT London Kill Zone takes center stage during the London trading session, witnessing the highest volume of order execution compared to other sessions. It is an opportune time for those trading the EUR and GBP pairs. Notably, the London Open often presents opportunities for traders to enter positions with the potential for gains ranging from 25 to 50 pips. Page | 47 Main Characteristics of London Kill Zone One of the distinctive characteristics of the London Kill Zone is its tendency to create the low of the day in bullish markets and the high of the day in bearish markets. Time of ICT London Kill Zone London Kill Zone of ICT lies between 2:00 AM to 5:00 AM Eastern Time Traders should monitor the key times between 2:00 AM to 5:00 AM New York time to capitalize on the price action during the London session. The New York Kill Zone Time: The Land of Opportunities Page | 48 For traders dealing with major pairs coupled with the dollar index, the New York Kill Zone is an essential timeframe to watch. Similar to other Kill Zones, this period often sets up optimal trade entry patterns, providing potential gains of 20 to 30 pips for scalp trades. Time of New York Kill Zone Page | 49 The New York Kill Zone occurs between 8:00 AM to 11:00 AM Eastern Time. This time is favorable for major pairs and benefits from the overlap with the London session, making it a golden opportunity for traders. New York Kill Zone lies between 8:00 AM to 1:00 AM Eastern Time The London Close Kill Zone: The Final Countdown The London Close Kill Zone is a specific time frame that can create continuation points for swings that extend well into New York afternoon hours. It’s the last chance for traders to make their moves before the market closes for the day, making accurate predictions during this period potentially profitable. Between approximately 8:00 AM to 9:00 AM Eastern Time (adjusted for daylight savings), traders can find optimal trade entry patterns, offering opportunities for 10 to 20 pips of profit on scalp trades. Monitoring the key times from 10:00 AM to Noon NY time can yield valuable insights during the London Close Kill Zone. ICT Kill Zones Times UTC&GMT The below table shows the ict kill zone time both in UTC (Eastern) and GMT time ICT Kill Zones Kill Zone Time (Eastern) Equivalent GMT Time (24-Jun-2023) ICT Asian Kill Zone 8:00 PM – 10:00 PM 12:00 AM – 2:00 AM ICT London Kill Zone 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM 12:00 PM – 3:00 PM ICT New York Kill Zone 8:00 AM – 11:00 AM 12:00 PM – 3:00 PM ICT London Close Kill Zone 8:00 AM -9:00 AM 1:00 PM-2:00 PM ICT Kill Zones Time UTC& GMT ICT Kill Zone on During Daylight Saving Time (DST) Page | 50 Now, let’s talk about Daylight Saving Time (DST), which starts on the second Sunday in March and ends on the first Sunday in November. During this period, Eastern Time is shifted one hour ahead to Eastern Daylight Time (EDT), which is UTC-4. For example, let’s consider April 10th, and the time is 11:30 AM in Eastern Time (ET) during Daylight Saving Time. To convert this to Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), you add 4 hours to the local time: 11:30 AM ET (UTC-4) + 4 hours = 3:30 PM UTC During Daylight Saving Time, the clocks are adjusted forward by one hour, giving us an extra hour of daylight in the evenings. When Daylight Saving Time ends, we set the clocks back by one hour to return to Eastern Standard Time. ICT Kill Zone Setting on Trading View On the TradingView chart, you’ll find the time zone option at the bottom right corner. To set the correct time zone, click on it, and choose “UTC-5” during regular days (Standard Time) and “UTC-4” during daylight saving time, which typically occurs from the second Sunday in March to the first Sunday in November. ICT Kill Zones Indicator Trading view & MT4 A number of indicator are available on the trading view that automatically highlights the ICT kill zones on your chart. ICT Kill Zone LuxAlgo is one of the best indicators available on trading view. To Add ICT Kill Zone indicator you adopt the following steps Page | 51 Step1:Click on the indicator icon on top of the trading view Step2 write LuxAlgo ICT Kill Zone Understanding and effectively utilizing ICT Kill Zones can significantly enhance a trader’s success in the forex market. Each Kill Zone represents a unique opportunity with its own set of potential gains. ICT FX Trading Course You can combine the following ICT Concepts with ICT Kill Zone Time to make a framework for you. Premium and Discount How To Set ICT Fibonacci Levels Page | 52 Fibonacci refers to the Fibonacci sequence, which is a series of numbers named after the Italian mathematician Leonardo of Pisa, also known as Fibonacci. He introduced this sequence to the Western world through his book “Liber Abaci” (1202), in which he used the sequence to describe the breeding of rabbits. The Fibonacci sequence starts with two numbers, 0 and 1, and each subsequent number in the sequence is the sum of the two preceding ones. Therefore, the sequence begins like this: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, … To generate the sequence, you add the last two numbers to obtain the next number. For example, 1 + 1 = 2, 1 + 2 = 3, 2 + 3 = 5, and so on. Page | 53 It also has important applications in mathematics, computer science, trading, crypto and other financial markets. ICT Fibonacci Levels ICT Fib level are those level where we can find optimal trade entry(OTE). These level and their descriptions are given below. 0 First Profit Scaling 0.505 Equilibrium (50% level) 0.618 62% Retracement 1.0 100% (original position) 0.705 Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) 0.79 79% Retracement -0.62 Target 2 -0.27 Target 1 -1 Symmetrical Price ICT Fibonacci Levels ICT Fib Settings Tradingview For setting ict Fibonacci level on trading view do the following To use Fibonacci retracements for trade entries and take profit zones, follow these steps: 1. Set up Fibonacci Settings: o Click on the Fibonacci retracement tool in your trading platform. Page | 54 o Place it on the chart by clicking and dragging from the swing high to the swing low (or vice versa) that you want to use as reference points. 1. Adjust Fibonacci Levels: o Double-click the Fibonacci retracement tool on the chart. o Right-click on the tool to access the settings. o Go to “Fib levels” and modify the levels as follows: o After setting the levels, click “Save” to apply the changes. Page | 55 How to Apply ICT Fib Settings on Chart Page | 56 In the ICT trading strategy, when using Fibonacci retracement levels, we place the tool from the lowest point to the highest point of the candle’s body if the market is going up (bullish momentum) and from higer to lower in bearish momentum. We do this because the highs and lows of candles can differ between brokers, making them less reliable. By focusing on the bodies of the candles, we can find the best spot to enter a trade with good profit potential, regardless of the broker we use. This helps us make better trading decisions and increases the chances of successful trades. ICT Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) In the ICT trading strategy, Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) levels are points in the market where there is a significant retracement in a particular direction. Traders look for specific entry setups at these levels. When traders identify an OTE level, they are looking for potential trade opportunities. They seek setups or signals that indicate the market is likely to reverse from the retracement and continue in Page | 57 the direction of the overall trend. By focusing on these OTE levels, traders aim to find favorable entry points that offer a good risk-to-reward ratio for their trades. You can combine ict premium and discount concepts with these ict ote fib level for additional confulence. ICT Implied Fair Value Gap (IFVG) In his 2023 mentorship program, Inner Circle Trader (ICT) introduced a novel category of Fair Value Gap known as the Implied Fair Value Gap (IFVG). Implied fvg ict What is the Implied Fair Value Gap Page | 58 The Implied Fair Value Gap (IFVG) is a unique three-candlestick pattern that distinguishes itself from the conventional Fair Value Gap. In the IFVG pattern, the central candle exhibits a substantial body, flanked by candles on either side that possess overlapping wicks. Criteria for Implied fvg ict: 1. Presence of a large-range candle. 2. Absence of a conventional FVG. 3. Long wicks on both sides with overlapping. Steps to identify Implied FVG: 1. Find the midpoint or consequent encroachment of each wick 2. The space b/w the 50% mark of each wick is the implied fvg 3. Extend it out in time ICT Implied Fair Value Gap Example Page | 59 You can use this IFVG Concept with other ICT Trading Concepts. 1. Order Block Page | 60 2. Breaker Block 3. ICT Time to Trade 4. ICT PO3 Fair Value Gap Trading Strategy ict fair value gap fvg Welcome to this blog post where we will discuss the fair value gap trading strategy. If you’re new to fair value gaps, we suggest reading our previous post called “What is Fair Value Gap?” to get a good grasp of the basics. Once you understand fair value gaps, you can learn how to use them effectively in your trading strategy. Let’s discover how Page | 61 the fair value gap trading strategy can improve your trading performance. Fair Value Gap Trading Strategy To implementing a fair value gap as a trading strategy you need to understand these three basic components of this trading strategy. Time Liquidity Hunt Market Structure Shift Fair Value Gap Let’s begin by discussing the importance of time in trading. According to ICT Trader, time is considered to be fractal, meaning that what happens on higher time frames is reflected in lower time frames if studied in the proper context. In this context, fractal refers to the idea that patterns and behaviors observed on longer time frames, such as daily or weekly charts, can be seen in shorter time frames, like hourly or minute charts. Page | 62 By studying price action and market behavior across different time frames, traders can gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics and potentially identify profitable trading opportunities. Time indeed holds significant importance in the fair value gap trading strategy, particularly when it comes to identifying favorable trading setups. Despite the forex market being open 24 hours a day, not all times present ideal conditions for executing fair value gap trades. That’s where the concept of ICT Kill Zones comes into play. ICT Kill Zones ICT Kill Zones refer to specific time periods during the day that have been observed to offer higher probability trading opportunities. These zones are associated with the entry of smart money, which are institutional or banks who have the ability to influence market direction. Page | 63 In short, ICT Kill Zones correspond to specific time periods during the day that are particularly relevant for trading activities. These zones include the London Open, London Close, New York Open, and New York Close. Traders using the fair value gap trading strategy often focus on these times as they tend to offer higher probability trading setups. The ICT Kill Zones are associated with the entry of smart money and can provide enhanced opportunities for traders to capitalize on market movements. By aligning their trading activities with these specific time periods, traders aim to improve their chances of success. Liquidity in FVG Trading Strategy Liquidity in the market often takes the form of buy stops and sell stops.market makers or smart money intentionally trap retail traders by manipulating prices to trigger their stop losses. Page | 64 The idea is that they move the market in one direction to hunt for stop losses, causing retail traders to place orders in the false direction and set their stop losses at key levels. After the stop loss hunt, the market reverses in the opposite direction, benefiting the smart money. Let’s analyze the above chart from a retail trader’s perspective. When we observe the chart, we notice that the price levels between 1930 and 1932 have proven to be strong resistance in the past. Page | 65 Based on this observation, many retail traders might place their selling pending orders to anticipate of a price reversal at these levels. To manage their risk, they would likely set their stop loss orders just above this resistance area. What is done by market makers or smart money,they could manipulate the market by initially pushing the price upward, deliberately triggering the stop loss orders placed by retail traders. This action would cause some retail traders to think that a breakout is occurring and prompt them to place buying orders while setting their stop losses at levels below the resistance area. Once the stop loss orders have been hunted and triggered, the market makers or smart money may then reverse the price direction. Enhancing Trading Success with the Fair Value Gap Entry Strategy Page | 66 After a liquidity hunt on a higher time frame, you suggest switching to lower time frames such as 15 minutes, 5 minutes, 3 minutes, or even 1 minute to identify certain patterns that may emerge following the stop loss hunt. These patterns include: Sudden or sharp price movements: Following the liquidity hunt, you may observe rapid and significant price fluctuations on the lower time frames. This sharp movement causing market structure shift and provide an extra confluence. Page | 67 2. Fair value gap (FVG): Look for gaps between the current price and the fair value of the asset. The fair value represents the equilibrium price based on various factors. Identify instances where the market price deviates significantly from this fair value. 3. Entry position based on the Fair Value Gap strategy: Once you spot a fair value gap pattern after the liquidity hunt, you can consider taking a position in anticipation of the market filling that gap. The expectation is that the market will eventually return to the fair value price. Page | 68 It’s important to carefully train your eyes to recognize these patterns after a liquidity hunt and patiently wait for the market to come back and fill the identified gap. Once you have identified a suitable entry position, you can place your stop loss order above the first candle to manage your risk. Please note that implementing such strategies requires careful analysis, experience, and a deep understanding of the specific market you are trading. It’s crucial to conduct thorough research, backtest Page | 69 your strategy, and consider other factors that may influence price movements before making any trading decisions. Page | 70 Page | 71 Page | 72