Lecture 2: Strategy-proof voting rules Jingyi Xue Singapore Management University Econ 241 1 / 36 Three or more candidates What voting rule would properly extend majority voting among pairs? The plurality rule: Each voter casts a vote for his or her favorite candidate. Choose the candidate(s) who is (are) named most often. 2 / 36 Condorcet’s challenge Nicolas de Condorcet (1743-1794): a French philosopher, mathematician, and political scientist. Plurality may contradict the majority opinion. 3 / 36 Condorcet’s argument Consider the following problem with 21 voters and 4 candidates. 3 a b c d 5 a c b d 7 b d c a 6 c b d a The plurality rule chooses a with 3+5=8 votes. Condorcet: But a is the worst candidate for a clear majority of voters (7+6=13). This majority prefers any candidate to a. 4 / 36 Condorcet winner 3 a b c d 5 a c b d 7 b d c a 6 c b d a Condorcet: c should be chosen if we abide by the majority opinion. Reason: A majority (7+6=13) prefers c to a. Another majority (5+6=11) prefers c to b. A third majority (3+5+6=14) prefers c to d. 5 / 36 Condorcet consistent voting rule A Condorcet winner is a candidate who defeats every other candidate in majority comparisons. • Defeat another candidate: More voters prefers a Condorcet winner to another candidate. • By definition, there is a unique Condorcet winner if exists. A voting rule is Condorcet consistent if the voting rule chooses a Condorcet winner whenever it exists. • The plurality rule is not Condorcet consistent. 6 / 36 Non-existence of a Condorcet winner Class exercise: Argue that there is no Condorcet winner in the following problem. 8 a b c 7 b c a 6 c a b • Condorcet consistency property only specifies whom to choose whenever a Condorcet winner exists. To completely define a voting rule, we also need to specify whom to choose when a Condorcet winner does not exist. 7 / 36 Borda’s challenge Jean-Charles de Borda (1733-1799): a French mathematician, physicist, and political scientist. Plurality may contradict the majority opinion. 8 / 36 Borda’s argument 3 a b c d 5 a c b d 7 b d c a 6 c b d a Borda: a is a poor candidate, but b, instead of c, should be chosen if we abide by the majority opinion. Reason: b is ranked first by 7 voters (against 6 for c), first or second by 16 voters (against 11 for c), and first, second, or third by all voters (as is c). 9 / 36 The Borda rule Borda’s idea: The ranking of each candidate in the voters’ opinions should count — if I rank some candidate first, this should help the candidate more than if I rank him second. The Borda rule: A candidate receives no points for being ranked last, one point for being ranked next to last, and so on, up to |A| − 1 points for being ranked first. A candidate with the highest total score, called a Borda winner, wins. 10 / 36 Scoring voting rules Definition Fix a nondecreasing sequence of real numbers s0 ≤ s1 ≤ · · · ≤ s|A|−1 with s0 < s|A|−1 . A candidate receives s0 points for being ranked last, s1 points for being ranked next to last, and so on, up to s|A|−1 points for being ranked first. A candidate with the highest total score wins. • The Borda rule: sn = n where n = 0, · · · , |A| − 1. • The plurality rule: 0 = s0 = s1 = · · · = s|A|−2 < s|A|−1 = 1. • How about a Condorcet consistent voting rule? 11 / 36 How about a Condorcet consistent voting rule? Theorem (Fishburn (1973)) There are problems where the Condorcet winner is never chosen by any scoring voting rule. • Implication: No Condorcet consistent voting rule can be a scoring voting rule. • Proof: Homework question. • Condorcet consistent voting rules and scoring voting rules are different families of rules. No comprise. 12 / 36 Borda vs. Condorcet (scoring vs. Condorcet consistent voting rules) Condorcet supporters: The notion of majority comparisons is easy to grasp and seems closer to the people’s opinion than scores. Used by a number of private organizations: the Wikimedia Foundation, the Pirate Party of Sweden. 13 / 36 Borda vs. Condorcet (scoring vs. Condorcet consistent voting rules) Borda supporters: There is one compelling property supporting scoring voting rules — participation. Used for political elections (Slovenia, the Green Party of Ireland) and elections by some educational institutions in the US (Harvard, UCLA) 14 / 36 Participation Starting from now, we will focus on voting rules that choose only one candidate for each collective decision problem. Participation: Suppose that candidate a is chosen from the set A by the electorate N. Next consider a voter i outside N. Then the electorate N ∪ {i} should select a or some candidate whom voter i prefers to a. If an additional vote succeeds in changing the outcome of the election. It can only be to the benefit of this “pivotal” voter. 15 / 36 Example If a voting rule chooses a in the LHS problem and c RHS, it violates participation. Bob Cheryl a a c b → d c b d a chosen Ann Bob Cheryl b a a a c b c d c d b d c chosen 16 / 36 Scoring vs. Condorcet consistent voting rules Theorem (Moulin (1986)) All scoring voting rules — where ties are broken according to a fixed ordering of A — satisfy participation. If A contains four or more candidates, there is no Condorcet consistent voting rule satisfying participation. • Homework question 17 / 36 Voting: aggregating individual opinions??? If a voting rule does not satisfy participation, a voter can influence the outcome of election in his/her favor by not participating in the election. Such a voting rule fails to aggregate individual opinions! What can a society do to ensure participation? 18 / 36 Ensure participation Punish those not participating by a fine! Moral punishment: social opprobrium! Change to a voting rule that incentives participation: scoring voting rules. 19 / 36 Ensure participation Legal punishment: compulsory voting Those not participating could face prosecution, face difficulties getting a job in the public sector, and lose the right to vote for 10 years. Compulsory voting is enforced in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, North Korea, Singapore, ... 20 / 36 Voting: aggregating individual opinions??? Strategic participation suggests that a voter, once realizing that his/her own vote may influence the outcome of election, will think twice and act like a player in the game of election, trying to maximize the returns from his/her vote. No participation can be prevented, but how about lying about one’s favorite candidate? We vote and we lie! 21 / 36 Real-life strategic (tactical) voting 2017 French presidential election “votez utile” (tactical voting) 22 / 36 Real-life strategic (tactical) voting In the 2004 Canada federal election, the governing Liberal Party was able to convince many New Democratic voters to vote Liberal in order to avoid a Conservative government. For the 2015 UK general election, voteswap.org was set up to help prevent the Conservative Party staying in government, by encouraging Green Party supporters to tactically vote for the Labour Party in listed marginal seats. 23 / 36 Strategic (tactical) voting under the Borda rule The Borda rule (satisfying participation) Ann Bob Cheryl a c c b b b c d d d a a Ann Bob Cheryl b c c a b b d d d c a a LHS problem (true preferences): a : 3, b : 6, c : 7, d : 2 with c winning RHS problem (misreported preference of Ann): a : 2, b : 7, c : 6, d : 3 with b winning in favor of Ann! 24 / 36 Strategic (tactical) voting The strategic aspect of voting is already noticed in 1876 by Charles Dodgson: This principle of voting makes an election more of a game of skill than a real test of the wishes of the electors. 25 / 36 Strategic (tactical) voting A voting rule fails to aggregate individual opinions if it is manipulable by strategic voting (lying), like by not participating. What can a society do to prevent lying? Punish those who lie? Legally? Morally? Change to a voting rule that voters cannot benefit by lying? 26 / 36 How to prevent strategic voting? It is impossible to distinguish a strategically biased report of a voter’s preference from a truthful one. One’s opinion is private information (before a reliable lie detector is invented). Hence, an openly untruthful report is a perfectly legal move. Moral punishment? Find a voting rule that is immune to strategic voting! 27 / 36 Strategy-proofness A voting rule is strategy-proof if when any voter, no matter what the other voters report, misreport his/her own preference, the voting rule will choose a candidate that is less preferred, according to his/her true preference ordering, compared with the candidate chosen if he/she has reported his/her true preference. 28 / 36 Recall: the Borda rule violates strategy-proofness. The Borda rule (satisfying participation) Ann Bob Cheryl a c c b b b c d d d a a Ann Bob Cheryl b c c a b b d d d c a a LHS problem (true preferences): a : 3, b : 6, c : 7, d : 2 with c winning RHS problem (misreported preference of Ann): a : 2, b : 7, c : 6, d : 3 with b winning in favor of Ann! 29 / 36 Implication of Strategy-proofness Ann Bob Cheryl a c c b b b c d d d a a Ann Bob Cheryl b c c a b b d d d c a a Imagine that LHS preference of Ann is her true preference. Then a chosen LHS =⇒ no restriction RHS b chosen LHS =⇒ b or c or d chosen RHS c chosen LHS =⇒ c or d chosen RHS d chosen LHS =⇒ d chosen RHS 30 / 36 Implication of Strategy-proofness Ann Bob Cheryl a c c b b b c d d d a a Ann Bob Cheryl b c c a b b d d d c a a Imagine that LHS preference of Ann is her true preference. Then a chosen RHS =⇒ a chosen LHS b chosen RHS =⇒ a or b chosen LHS c chosen RHS =⇒ a or b or c chosen LHS d chosen RHS =⇒ no restriction LHS 31 / 36 Class exercise Ann Bob Cheryl a c c b b b c d d d a a Ann Bob Cheryl b c c a b b d d d c a a Imagine that RHS preference of Ann is her true preference. Then a chosen RHS =⇒ b chosen RHS =⇒ c chosen RHS =⇒ d chosen RHS =⇒ 32 / 36 Class exercise Ann Bob Cheryl a c c b b b c d d d a a Ann Bob Cheryl b c c a b b d d d c a a Imagine that RHS preference of Ann is her true preference. Then a chosen LHS =⇒ b chosen LHS =⇒ c chosen LHS =⇒ d chosen LHS =⇒ 33 / 36 Class discussion How to prevent strategic voting? Find a voting rule that is strategy-proof. Is the majority rule strategy-proof ? Why? 34 / 36 Two candidates: good news! The majority rule: desirable in the sense of being anonymous, neutral, and strictly monotonic. It is also immune to strategic voting: No voter can benefit by lying. Reason: Any voter, no matter what other voters do, by voting for his/her less favorite candidate, either has no influence on the outcome of election, or making his/her less favorite candidate elected. 35 / 36 How about three or more candidates? The Farquharson-Dummett conjecture: voting rules with at least three issues face endemic tactical voting. Dummett and Farquharson (1961). “Stability in voting”. Econometrica. 29 (1): 33-43. 36 / 36