Climate Change and the Effect it has on Tourism in Barbados
Shalicia Johnson
408001105
BSc. Economics and Finance
December 18th, 2020
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Abstract
3
Introduction and Overview
4
Literature Review
7
Methodology
15
Work Plan
16
Anticipated Outcomes and Impact
17
References
19
2
ABSTRACT
Climate change is a global issue that is gaining more concern yearly as the global temperature
increases. Tourism is vital to Barbados, and researchers are paying more attention to the
relationship between climate change and tourism in Barbados.
This research paper examines the potential impacts of climate change, how these impacts
influence a tourist’s choice of destination and how these impacts determine whether a tourist
would travel to Barbados. Therefore, a secondary analysis of qualitative data was applied to
conduct this research.
The findings show that climate change does influence tourist’s decisions on travelling to
Barbados in the peak seasons. The research concludes that climate change does influence the
tourist’s destination choice and the timing of their travel to Barbados.
3
INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW`
BACKGROUND
Climate change includes both the global warming driven by human emissions of greenhouse
gases, and the resulting large-scale shifts in weather patterns (Wikipedia n.d.). In 1988, global
warming was changing the climate, and NASA’s Institute for Space Studies saw that there was a
cause and effect relationship between the warming of the atmosphere and greenhouse gases, so
NASA concluded that greenhouse gases were changing the climate (Brulle n.d.). In 2010, the
total emissions of greenhouse gases produced by human activity were close to forty-six (46)
billion metric tons, and this shows that the total amount of emitted greenhouses gases increased
by thirty-five percent since the year 1990 (Climate Change Indicators n.d.). Climate change can
have a significant impact on:
a)
Tourism
b)
Agriculture
c)
Coastal Ecosystems
d)
Water Resources
e)
Infrastructure
f)
The health of the population
Barbados has always been a tourist attraction because of its lovely beaches and its climate for
over fifty years. Tourism began to grow in Barbados from the late 1950s with a total number of
fifteen thousand (15,000) tourists in 1955 (Potter, R.B 1983), and over the years it evolved to
over seventy-two thousand, nine hundred and fifty-one (72,951) tourists in 2018 (Barbados
Tourist Arrivals n.d.). The peak season for tourism in Barbados is from the middle of December
4
to the middle of April because, during this time, tourists would like to escape the cold weather in
their home country. In the event of climate change and extreme weather, there may be a
reduction in the tourists’ demand to travel to Barbados because there is no certainty to the
climate in Barbados being warm (Kylie Morrow 2019).
Barbados is a small island which has experienced significant growth in the tourism sector, and
this sector has made a substantial monetary contribution to the island’s GDP over the years
(Sealy 2010), but climate change is posing a threat to this sector. Loss of natural attractions such
as damage to coastal ecosystems, ocean acidification, coastal erosion and higher sea levels,
reduces the demand for coastal tourism.
According to the UN Commission, Barbados in the category of a water-scarce country which
makes it vulnerable to droughts (Brett Callaghan 2020). The adverse effects of climate change
may negatively affect water availability in Barbados. There is uncertainty to the total impact of
climate change on small islands but what is certain is climate change can affect tourism in small
islands (Layne, Davina 2017). The information on climate change that is available is from a
general perspective, but what is the personal impact of climate change in Barbados. So, the
questions are:
1) What is the total effect of climate change to Barbados’ tourism sector?
2) What is the total effect of climate change today to Barbados in this changing
environment?
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PURPOSE OF THE STUDY
The purpose of this study is to inform Barbadians about the effects of climate change on
Barbados’ tourism sector. Thus, my study evaluates the research on climate change, identifies
Barbados’ vulnerability to climate change, produces findings on how climate change can affect
Barbados, and based on the results of my study, Barbados may have implications and policy
implementations for the future.
RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND OBJECTIVES
1.
What is the impact of climate change on tourism in Barbados?
2.
What practical actions can the public and the government do to strengthen the reliance on
the tourism sector?
INTENDED APPROACH
This paper is an empirical research paper, where I utilized qualitative methods with secondary
data to conduct my study.
SIGNIFICANCE OF RESEARCH
Climate change is a concern that affects social welfare, economic welfare and environmental
welfare. Tourism is a vital source of income in Barbados, and the sustainability of tourism is
likely to be affected by climate change. This research paper identifies and proposes ways to
maintain sustainability in Barbados’ tourism sector in the event of climate change.
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LITERATURE REVIEW
Today, the leading cause of climate change is human activity (Causes of climate change n.d.).
Climate change causes extreme heat, a rising sea level, extreme weather events, drought and
famine, flooding and extreme precipitation (Climate change and health 2018). The effects of
climate change in Barbados can be detrimental to Barbados’ resources, the public’s health, the
agricultural sector and the tourism sector. The tourism industry is the main engine of growth in
Barbados because it is a significant source of foreign exchange earnings and employment
(Moore n.d.).
Below is an extract from (Jackson n.d.) showing the summarized and categorized impacts of
climate change on Tourism:
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Evidence of Increased Temperatures
Barbados is highly dependent on tourism, and the atmospheric temperature is vital to tourism.
Today, there has been a noticeable increase in the average atmospheric temperature in Barbados,
from 1960, there has been an increase in the average temperature in Barbados from 0.6 degrees
Celsius to 0.14 degrees yearly (Barbados- Climate Data- Historical n.d.). (Hoffmann 2019)
predicted that Barbados could lose half of a percentage of GDP due to increasing temperatures.
Effects of Increased Temperatures and the Environmental Impact
Extreme heat causes droughts, wildfires, threats to human health, air pollution, damage to crops,
a reduction in livestock production and a reduction in the thermal efficiency of energy-producing
systems (Heat Waves and Climate Change n.d.). The strength of hurricanes also intensifies in
warm and hot temperatures (Hurricanes and Climate Change
2019).
The atmospheric temperature of a destination is a determining factor for tourists when choosing a
destination (Wietze Lise n.d.). Barbados is a popular destination because of its sunny weather
and its beautiful beaches, and high temperatures will cause tourists to choose another destination
(Tourism under climate change scenarios: impacts, possibilities, and challenges n.d.).
Extreme heat causes glaciers and ice sheets to melt; this increases the amount of water in the
ocean and a rise in sea level. When the temperature of the seawater becomes warmer, the volume
of the sea expands. An increasing temperature reduces the amount of water on land, and this can
also cause a rise in sea level (Lindsey 2020). According to (Ali n.d.), “1-meter sea level rise
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would result in the loss or damage of 21 airports, inundation of land surrounding 35 ports and at
least 149 multi-million dollar tourism resorts damaged or lost in the Caribbean nations”. A rise
in sea level has four ramifications for small islands such as Barbados: (1) flooding in low-lying
areas; (2) coastal erosion; (3) greater flooding during storms (3) salinisation (Tiffany Grosvenor
n.d.). Extreme precipitation as a result of climate change also causes flooding and contributes to
the damage done to the hotels’ infrastructure.
Hurricanes cause socio-economic or environmental damage to the tourism product and the
revenue earned from the tourism sector (Jackson n.d.). Warmer temperatures produce intense
storms and hurricanes with higher winds and more rainfall. When the sea level rises, this causes
higher wave action, and higher wave action causes coastal flooding where the particles of the
beach are worn down or washed away; this sequence creates coastal erosion. A rising sea
temperature and coastal erosion increase the strength of storms and hurricanes when they reach
the shore, and this can intensify during high tide (Coastal Erosion n.d.). An increasing sea
temperature and ocean acidification caused by an increase in the amount of carbon dioxide
absorbed by the water damages coral reefs (Peter J Mumby 2014). In the event of strong waves,
the beaches’ vulnerability to beach erosion increases when there is a loss of coral reefs (Layne,
Davina 2017).
Barbados is situated where most transatlantic hurricanes pass and the hurricane season in
Barbados is from June to November, but from September to November there is an increase in the
frequency of hurricanes. An intense storm hitting Barbados will cause extreme flooding due to
Barbados’ low terrain and the island’s lack of proper drainage along with its lack of adequate
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stormwater infrastructure (COUNTRY Barbados n.d.). On the west coast and south coast of
Barbados, there are low-pressure systems, so both of these coastal areas are liable to storm
surges. Furthermore, both of these coastal areas have many hotels, and a combination of storm
surges and coastal erosion will cause damage to the hotels’ infrastructure, and hotels are vital to
the tourism industry (COUNTRY Barbados n.d.).
The occurrence of intense hurricanes and storms that damage the infrastructure of hotels will
result in reduced demand for tourists to travel to Barbados, which leads to a reduction in revenue
from tourism and an increase in unemployment due to the loss of jobs of persons working with
the hotels (Jackson n.d.).
Climate Change and the Health of Barbados
Intense heat causes severe droughts, and this can cause famine(Talukdar 2018). According to the
UN Commission, Barbados as a water-scarce country and the island experiencing drought will
reduce the amount of water available for sanitary purposes, increase the frequency of chemical
and microbial contamination and gastrointestinal diseases (Climate change adaptation PDF n.d.).
When water is scarce, this results in water storage of rainwater. Stored rainwater is stagnant
water, and mosquitoes breed in stagnant water. Dengue is one of many vector-borne diseases,
and Barbados has the highest rate of dengue fever cases in the world (Climate change adaptation
PDF n.d.); an increase in water storage will cause an increase in the number of sick persons with
dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases.
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The climate in Barbados is hot and humid all year round (CLIMATES TO TRAVEL n.d.), and
this increases its vulnerability to vector-borne diseases and heat strokes if climate change occurs.
Vector-borne illnesses caused by mosquitoes are more transmissible in warm temperatures
(HOW DOES WEATHER AFFECT MOSQUITO ACTIVITY? n.d.) and in humid climates
(heat plus rainfall) mosquitoes are more active (SPRINGFIELD-DECATUR 2018). Extreme
weather can lengthen the season for the transmission of vector-borne diseases, and this causes
the health of many persons to be at risk. The health of persons can also be affected by severe
heat. Severe heat causes heat strokes; this occurs when there is a rapid increase in body
temperature, and the body is unable to cool down. A heat stroke causes death, and it can cause
some persons to become permanently disabled if there isn’t immediate medical attention
(EXTREME HEAT CAN IMPACT OUR HEALTH IN MANY WAYS PDF n.d.). In addition to
the news of Barbados having the highest rates of dengue fever in the world, more negative
publicity of vector-borne diseases in Barbados will reduce the tourists’ demand to travel to
Barbados (ARE MOSQUITOES TAKING DOWN TOURISM
n.d.).
Water is crucial to Tourism
A hospitality facility that satisfies most of the guests' needs but doesn’t have an adequate water
supply will result in a bad hotel experience. An adequate water supply is crucial to Tourism, and
a lack of water or no water in a hospitality facility creates discomfort for the guests. Some
reasons why guests need water are to shower, flush the toilet and prepare meals and if potential
tourists acquire the knowledge that a country has an inadequate water supply, it creates a
11
negative perception of the country and causes tourists to choose an alternative destination
(Layne, Davina 2017).
Climate Change and Marine Habitat
Coral reefs protect the shoreline from extreme events such as hurricanes and storms, and they
also provide food and medicines. Tourists put a high value to lovely beaches, clear water, healthy
coral reefs and sea turtles in Barbados. However, in the past few years, evidence has shown that
Barbados has been experiencing coastal and marine degradation on the south and west coast
which increases its vulnerability to total degradation of coastal and marine services in the event
of climate change. Tourists in Barbados are frequently involved in recreational activities in the
coastal zone, and complete degradation of coastal and marine services will cause tourists who
love to come to Barbados change their mind about returning to Barbados (Peter Schuhmann
2017). Damage to the natural habitat reduces the natural attractions for tourists, and this can
cause a reduction in tourists, a loss in income from tourists and as a result, tour services, for
example, tour guides and taxi operators will experience a decrease in revenue (Jackson n.d.).
Climate Change and the Agricultural Sector
As a Caribbean island, Barbados’ agricultural sector relies heavily on water for growth,
particularly fresh-water (The Caribbean must prepare for increased drought due to climate
change 2016). Intense heat, water scarcity, increased unexpected variations in the climate and
differing rainfall patterns harms the crops and livestock of farmers (Brown 2015). Droughts have
significant economic and social consequences for the agricultural sector in the Caribbean. A
12
deficiency of water for prolonged periods and flooding decreases crop production and causes
premature death of the livestock and poultry; a reduction in crop production reduces the
availability of food. Climate change increases diseases that threaten the livelihood of animals and
the yielding of crops due to an increase in temperature. According to Deep Ford, Regional
Coordinator for FAO in the Caribbean, “drought ranks as the single most common cause of
severe food shortages in developing countries, so this is a key issue for Caribbean food security”
(The Caribbean must prepare for increased drought due to climate change 2016).
Hotel restaurants in Barbados prefer a cuisine with locally produced goods, and one reason for
this preference is the high tourist demand for locally produced goods (Promoting agritourism in
Barbados n.d.). Climate change causes imported products to become scarce and more expensive,
and a decline in crop growth in Barbados will cause hotels to import more increasing their
expenditure. Due to the scarcity of locally produced goods, the costs of these goods will also
increase for hotels (Adrian Cashman n.d.).
Conclusion
There are recognized gaps in the research on climate change, and Barbados and these gaps have
created debates. There is evidence on climate change having the ability to affect the tourism
sector in Barbados but to engage in proper adaptation and mitigating actions, knowing the impact
climate change will have on the gaps will be beneficial to Barbados when implementing policies.
The recognized gaps from the research leave the public with questions such as:
1.
How will the sea-level rise affect the coastal developments and their livelihoods in
Barbados?
2.
How will the constant increase in temperatures of source countries affect tourism arrivals
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and receipts in Barbados?
3.
How will increased temperatures impact the health of the entire population including
tourists in Barbados?
This proposal identifies ways how climate change will impact tourism in Barbados, and it is a
guide for the government to implement the appropriate adaptation and mitigation policies to
assist them in dealing with climate change in this changing environment. The use of proper
adaptation and mitigating measures will surely help to maintain sustainability in the tourism
sector of Barbados.
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METHODOLOGY
INTRODUCTION
This research proposal took a qualitative approach with the analysis and interpretation of
secondary data such as the attainment of historical data, analysis and assessment of the island's
vulnerability and the potential effects of climate change, evaluating these effects against
Barbados’ tourism sector and making recommendations to adapt to and mitigate the changes
caused by these effects for the current and future times.
DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS
This proposal took a qualitative approach using secondary data, where I analysed, summarized,
and interpreted continuous data of climate change from various scholarly sources for the past
thirty-two years. The data from the scholarly sources contained information on climate change’s
historical data, the causes of climate change, the effects of climate change and how its increased
temperatures impact the tourism industry, Barbados’ tourism sector’s vulnerability to the effects
of climate change, and a provision of recommendations on how Barbados can adapt to and
mitigate the changes.
To analyse the data, we use a thematic analysis where we examined, summarised, and interpreted
our data as well as proposed ways how the results from our interpretation would affect Barbados’
tourism sector.
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WORK PLAN
The search for data relevant to this topic began on September 15th, 2020, and the qualitative
summarization of the data finished on December 15th, 2020.
Searching for Historical Data, Effects of Climate Change, Barbados’ Vulnerability
September 15th, 2020 – December 1st, 2020
Removal of Irrelevant Data in Initial Introduction and Literature Review and Addition of
Relevant Data
December 2nd, 2020- December 3rd 2020
Classification of Data for Introduction, Literature Review, Methodology, Work Plan and
Conclusion
December 4th, 2020 – December 10th, 2020
Interpretation and Summarization of Literature
December 11th, 2020 – December 18th, 2020
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ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES AND IMPACT
Tourism is an economic development tool. Based on the data obtained from the research and
Barbados’ vulnerability, climate change will negatively impact the sustainability of tourism in
Barbados, resulting in a decline in economic growth in Barbados. With a decrease in natural
attractions and damage to hotel infrastructures, tourist arrivals will decrease. An increase in
temperatures will increase in the usage of air-conditioning machines and the excessive use of
fans resulting in increased expenditures for tourism and hospitality facilities with a rise in utility
bills. A rise in diseases will also deter tourists from choosing Barbados as a tourist destination.
If a hotel has an increase in its expenses and a reduction in tourists, their facility will sustain a
financial loss. Since Barbados falls into the category of a water-scarce island, drought can cause
significant problems for tourists, it causes dissatisfaction for current tourists and reduces the
travel demand to Barbados for potential tourists. Lack of water also creates sanitary issues, and
with climate change, the water can become contaminated whilst transmitting diseases; tourists
acquiring this knowledge results in a reduced demand to travel to Barbados. A hotel realizing
that they are incurring losses whilst having the same number of employees will terminate the
jobs of some of its employees if the hotel chooses to remain in operation. A hotel that decides to
shut down will terminate employment for all employees. Either way, it increases the
unemployment rate and an increase in the unemployment rate will dampen Barbados’ economic
growth and affect the welfare of the unemployed persons and their families.
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This research shows how climate change can impact Barbados and seminars, educational
programs, radio broadcasting and television broadcasting on climate can help the public to
become more aware of climate change. Furthermore, it can help the government to decide on the
implementation of the most effective policies and structural changes to adapt to and mitigate
climate change’s effects.
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