MARKET REPORT
Q1 2023
Our Professionals Your Success
Content
Executive Summary
Part 1: Economic
1
3
GDP
3
FDI
4
CPI & Inflation
5
Trade Balance
6
Exchange Rate
6
7
11
Part 2: Real Estate
Apartment
Ho Chi Minh City
12
Hanoi
13
Da Nang
14
Office
15
Ho Chi Minh City
17
Hanoi
18
Da Nang
18
Retail
19
Ho Chi Minh City
21
Hanoi
21
Future
22
Hotel
23
Industrial
25
Part 3: Legal
27
Market Report | Q1 2023
Market Report | Q1 2023
Executive
Summary
GDP
CPI & Inflation
Exchange Rate
In Q1/2023, Vietnam’s GDP growth rate was
In Q1/2023, CPI increased by 4.18% YoY. Core
On March 31, 2023, the central exchange
3.32% YoY. In particular, the agriculture,
inflation in Q1/2023 increased by 5.01% YoY,
rate USD/VND reached 23,600, down 0.03%
forestry, and f ishery sector increased by
higher than the average CPI. In 2023, the
compared to January 3, 2023. In general, the
2.52% YoY, the industry and construction
pressure to increase CPI may come f rom
USD/VND exchange rate in Q1/2023 fluctuated
sector decreased by 0.4% YoY, and the
increasing tuition fees, medical service
from VND 23,603 to VND 23,642 and this rate
service sector increased by 6.79% YoY.
prices, electricity prices, and energy prices.
has a tendency to cool down.
Although Vietnam’s economy is currently
Therefore, TMS Consultancy predicts that
facing some macro risks, the medium-
Vietnam’s inflation rate will be roughly 4.5%
term outlook for Vietnam is very positive for
YoY in 2023.
several reasons. TMS Consultancy predicts
that Vietnam’s GDP growth rate in 2023 will
reach about 6.5% YoY.
FDI
Trade Balance
As of March 20, 2023, there were 522 new
In Q1/2023, Vietnam’s export and import
projects
registration
turnover were USD 79.2 billion (down 11.9%
certificates (up 62.1% YoY), and the newly total
YoY) and 75.1 billion USD (down 14.7% YoY),
registered capital reached more than 3 billion
respectively. The trade surplus of the import-
USD (down 5.9% YoY). The reason for this
export market is estimated at 4.07 billion
decline is that in Q1/2022, there was a sudden
USD. In 2023, although Vietnam’s export
increase in the issuance of IRCs for a Lego
activities will face many challenges, many
project with a total investment of 1.32 billion
positive factors will be the driving force for the
USD.
development of the export market. Therefore,
granted
investment
the Ministry of Finance expects the export
growth target to increase about 6% YoY in
2023 while the trade balance will maintain a
surplus.
1
2
Market Report | Q1 2023
Part 1
Economic
Market Report | Q1 2023
GDP
The world economy maintains low growth
Although Vietnam’s economy is currently facing some
VIETNAM FDI INFLOW | 2018 - Q1 2023
macro risks, the medium-term outlook for Vietnam
is very positive for several reasons. First, Vietnam is an
In Q1/2023, the world economy continues to face many
important link in the global supply chain, a destination
challenges. Global inflation has cooled down but remained
many businesses choose. Second, China has opened
relatively high. Major trading partners recovered slowly
its economy and abolished the zero-Covid policy, which
and showed signs of declining in consumer demand. The
could be a bright spot for Vietnam’s tourism and exports.
instability of some major banks in the US and Europe
Third, the government will implement many economic
has affected people’s confidence in the banking system
support packages and loosen monetary policy to promote
worldwide.
economic growth. In addition, many large corporations’
>
GDP
>
FDI
>
CPI & INFLATION
>
TRADE BALANCE
Because of the negative effects of the long-lasting Russia-
restructuring investment flows are a positive sign for
>
EXCHANGE RATE
Ukraine war, tight monetary policy, and high energy prices,
Vietnam’s FDI in 2023. Therefore, many economic
Foreign
major economies such as the United States, China, and the
organizations such as WB, IMF, UOB expect the Vietnam
national economic sectors. The processing and
Eurozone have shown a significant slowdown in growth.
GDP growth rate in 2023 to be 6.3-6.6% YoY.
manufacturing industry took the lead with a total
Therefore, international organizations such as IFM, FR, WB,
and UNDESA estimate that global growth in 2023 will reach
1.7-2.9% YoY. In Southeast Asia, the World Bank forecasts that
TMS Consultancy predicts that Vietnam’s GDP
growth rate in 2023 will reach about 6.5% YoY.
the economic growth of Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia,
VIETNAM GDP GROWTH RATE BY QUARTER
2018-2023F
Malaysia, and Thailand in 2023 will be 6.3%, 5.4%, 4.8%, 4.0%,
and 3.6%, respectively.
Source: MPI Vietnam & TMS Consultancy, Research
investors
have
invested
in
17/21
investment of nearly 4 billion USD, accounting for
73% of the total registered investment capital and
down 25% YoY. Real estate business ranked second
with a total investment of nearly 766 million USD,
accounting for nearly 14.1% and down 71.6% YoY.
Meanwhile, the wholesale and retail industries,
transportation and warehousing ranked 3rd and 4th
with a total registered capital of nearly 276 million
GDP slows in Q1/2023 amid global difficulties
USD (up 2 times YoY) and nearly 151 million USD (up
In Q1/2023, Vietnam’s GDP growth rate was 3.32% YoY.
37% YoY), respectively. The rest are other industries.
In particular, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector
VIETNAM FDI BY SECTOR | Q1 2023
increased by 2.52% YoY, the industry and construction
sector decreased by 0.4% YoY, the service sector increased
Source: GSO Vietnam, TMS Consultancy, Research
by 6.79% YoY. The decline in the construction sector mainly
came from the decline of industry (-0.82% YoY). In which,
the mining industry decreased by 5.6% YoY, the processing
FDI
and manufacturing industry decreased by 0.37% YoY, the
As of March 20, 2023, there were 522 new projects granted
production and distribution of electricity, gas, hot water,
investment registration certificates (up 62.1% YoY), and the
steam, and air conditioners decreased by 0.32% YoY.
newly total registered capital reached more than 3 billion
However, the service sector clearly showed a strong
USD (down 5.9% YoY).
recovery (up 6.79% YoY). This result is achieved thanks to
According to March 20, 2023, the country has 36,881 valid
the effectiveness of domestic consumer stimulus policies,
projects with a total registered capital of nearly 444.1
the policy of reopening the economy from March 15 2022
billion USD. The accumulated realized capital of foreign
(the Covid-19 pandemic was under control), and Vietnam’s
investment projects is estimated at more than 278.3 billion
tourism promotion activities.
USD, equaling nearly 62.7% of the total valid registered
Source: MPI Vietnam & TMS Consultancy, Research
investment capital.
3
4
Market Report | Q1 2023
There were 67 countries and territories investing in
Vietnam in Q1/2023. In particular, Singapore leads with
a total investment of nearly 1.69 billion USD, accounting
for nearly 31% of total investment capital in Vietnam
(down 26.3% YoY). China ranked second with nearly
552 million USD, accounting for 10.1% (down 38.3% YoY).
Taiwan ranked third with a total registered investment
capital of more than 477 million USD, accounting for
nearly 8.8% (up 47.5% YoY). Followed by Korea, Hong
Kong, the Netherlands, . . .
TOP COUNTRIES INVEST TO VIETNAM | Q1 2023
Market Report | Q1 2023
CPI & INFLATION
TRADE BALANCE
EXCHANGE RATE
In Q1/2023, CPI increased by 4.18% YoY, and core inflation
In Q1/2023, the consumption demand of major trading
On March 31, 2023, the central exchange rate USD/
in Q1/2023 increased by 5.01% YoY. This increase resulted
partners decreased sharply. Vietnam’s export turnover
VND reached 23,600, down 0.03% compared to January
from the following main reasons:
is estimated at USD 79.2 billion, down 11.9% YoY. In
3, 2023. In general, the USD/VND exchange rate in
> The housing and construction materials group
particular, the domestic investment sector decreased
Q1/2023 fluctuated from VND 23,603 to VND 23,642 and
increased by 7.17% YoY due to the high price of input
materials and high housing rents.
> Prices of food items increased by 4.41% YoY, electricity
prices increased by 2.71% YoY due to increased
consumer demand during the Lunar New Year.
> Education fees increased by 10.13% YoY because some
localities have again increased after exempting or
reducing tuition fees in the 2021-2022 school year.
> The price index of culture, entertainment and tourism
groups increased by 4.9% YoY due to the control of
the Covid-19 epidemic and the high demand for
entertainment and tourism, especially during the
Lunar New Year.
by 17.4% YoY, and the foreign investment sector
this rate has a tendency to cool down.
(including crude oil) decreased by 10.0% YoY. Import
turnover in Q1/2023 also dropped sharply, estimated
at 75.1 billion USD, down 14.7% YoY. The domestic and
foreign investment sectors decreased by 15.4% and
13.3% YoY, respectively. The trade surplus of the importexport market is estimated at 4.07 billion USD.
VIETNAM TRADE BALANCE BY QUARTER
2018 - Q1 2023
Source: TMS Consultancy, Research
On the other hand, there are some causes for decreasing
CPI in Q1/2023
The downtrend of the exchange rate was supported by
> Domestic gasoline prices decreased by 11.09% YoY,
and domestic gas prices decreased by 1.81% according
to fluctuations in world prices.
> The price index of the postal and telecommunications
group decreased by 0.26% due to the lower price of
old-generation phones.
VIETNAM CPI | 2018 - 2023F
cities across the country in Q1/2023. Bac Giang leads
the way with a total registered investment capital of
more than 1.1 billion USD, accounting for nearly 20.3%.
Dong Nai ranked second with 18 new projects, with a
Bac Ninh, Ho Chi Minh City, Hai Phong, respectively. .
TOP PROVINCES RECEIVING FDI | Q1 2023
maintained its downtrend and the Dollar Index (DXY)
dropped. This happened because the market expected
FED to ease the degree of monetary tightening due
Source: GSO Vietnam & TMS Consultancy, Research
In 2023, Vietnam’s export activities will face many
Foreign investors have invested in 44 provinces and
million USD, accounting for more than 11.1%. Next is
a favorable international environment when the USD
Source: GSO Vietnam & TMS Consultancy, Research
According to the National Assembly in the Resolution
on the socio-economic development plan in 2023,
Vietnam’s consumer price index rate will be roughly
4.5% YoY because inflation pressure in 2023 is enormous.
The pressure in the increase of CPI will come from the
possibility of increasing tuition fees, medical service
prices, electricity prices, and energy prices.
Therefore,
TMS
Consultancy
predicts
to the cooling of inflation and the weakening of the
economy - clearly reflected in the less positive PMI in
Source: MPI Vietnam & TMS Consultancy, Research
total registered investment capital of more than 607
EXCHANGE RATE USD/VND | Q1 2023
the service sector.
difficulties and challenges. The main cause comes
In 2023, the exchange rate is still under pressure. First,
from the consequences of shocks from supply chain
FED is expected to continue raising interest rates at
disruptions, the conflict situation in Russia-Ukraine, and
least two more times and will maintain interest rates
rising inflation in many large markets such as the US,
at high levels in the long term. Second, although
EU, China, and Japan.
global inflation has passed its peak, prices of many raw
However, many positive factors will be the driving force
for the development of the export market. First, the FTA
Agreements continue to implement the tariff reduction
roadmap. Second, Vietnamese businesses continue
to promote their initiative and creativity, seek new
materials and fuels still remain high. Third, exports and
FDI attraction will face many challenges due to the
decline of the growing global economy. Many partners
of Vietnam such as the US and EU are at risk of recession,
affecting the domestic foreign currency supply.
markets, and take advantage of FTAs. In the context
of many unpredictable fluctuating factors affecting
import and export activities, the Ministry of Finance
expects the export growth target in 2023 to reach an
that
Vietnam’s inflation rate will be roughly 4.5% in
increase of about 6% YoY while the trade balance will
maintain a surplus.
2023.
Source: MPI Vietnam & TMS Consultancy, Research
5
6
Market Report | Q1 2023
Market Report | Q1 2023
Part 2: Real Estate
Vietnam Real Estate Market Highlights | Q1 2023
Because of the impact of legal policies, rising interest rates, demand
On the other hand, FDI accounted for a relatively small
According to Vietnam’s Ministry of Planning and
exceeding supply, and the market being illiquid in 2022, the real
share of the overall capital invested in real estate, but
Investment, in Q1/2023, foreign investors invested in 17
estate market was difficult. A number of large and small real estate
it was an important source of capital attraction for the
sectors out of a total of 21 national economic sectors. In
enterprises have paused their investment activities, halted or delayed
economy as a whole and the real estate industry in
particular, the real estate business ranked second with
the implementation of new projects. Furthermore, these companies
particular.
a total investment of nearly 0.5 billion USD, accounting
have been looking for ways to restructure their capital, given that banks
continue to tighten credit room for real estate purposes.
for about 14% of the total registered investment
FDI TO REAL ESTATE BUSINESS IN VIETNAM
2017 - Q1 2023
capital. Besides, the Vietnamese market had drawn
The real estate market was still bleak in the first quarter of 2023, with
numerous international investors due to the country’s
signs of recovery proving difficult. Because the project’s legal bottleneck
large working-age population, numerous enticing
had not been removed, interest rates were high (around 12-14% per year),
policies, and stable political environment.
and demand continued to outstrip supply, putting pressure on both
supply and demand. Starting in 2023, most real estate segments’s selling
prices in the primary and secondary markets tended to be uneven. The
primary selling price, in particular, remained quite high and increased
slightly due to rising input costs, rising interest rates, and the gradual
Source: GSO Vietnam & TMS Consultancy, Research
depletion of the land bank. Meanwhile, the secondary selling price had
Real Estate Market Performance in Q1/2023
not changed significantly in the short term and has even corrected in
a negative direction because some sellers seek liquidity. However, the
current downtrend of the real estate market offered great opportunities
for investors with substantial financial resources to enter the market.
No.
Sectors
Province
neighboring provinces. The following real estate categories are expected
1
to have bright spots shortly, according to TMS Consultancy:
Q1 2022
Y-o-Y
Q1 2023
Q4 2022
Q-o-Q
HCMC
2,852
2,963
3.74%
2,852
2,856
0.1%
Hanoi
2,267
2,160
4.96%
2,267
2,339
3.08%
Da Nang
2,259
2,185
3.42%
2,259
2,384
5.23%
HCMC
36.71
35.33
3.93%
36.71
36.39
1%
Hanoi
27.22
26.31
3.46%
27.22
26.96
1%
Da Nang
14.04
13.61
3.19%
14.04
13.87
1.23%
Retail
HCMC
99.5
90
10.5%
99.5
98.5
1.02%
(USD/sqm/
month)
Hanoi
73
66.25
10.2%
73
71.5
2.1%
Northern
140
125
12%
140
136
3%
Central
75
65
15%
75
72
4%
Southern
160
140
14%
160
155
3.2%
Apartment
(USD/sqm)
> The first group of real estate targeted by foreign investment capital is
office and industrial real estate;
> The second group of assets consists of houses and serviced apartments,
Office
2
particularly those that cater to the real needs of foreign workers,
(USD/sqm/
month)
experts, and personnel;
> The third group worthy of note is hospitality real estate.
3
4
7
Average Asking/Rental Price
Q1 2023
Currently, foreign investors from Korea, Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong
primarily interested in Vietnam’s real estate in HCMC, Hanoi, and some
Average Asking/Rental Price
Industrial
8
Market Report | Q1 2023
Market Report | Q1 2023
Vietnam Real Estate Market Outlook in 2023
Regarding the current real estate market situation, Vietnam’s real estate will recover by Q3/2023 for the
sector of residential. However, the sector of office will be brighter than residential with the signal of growth rate
in Q1/2023. TMS Consultancy forecasts that if the following three main matters are applied to the real estate
market and especially in the residential sector, the market will be better next quarter with the below signals:
1st
Focusing on tackling the market’s hottest
issues, including legal and capital. If legal
2nd
Prioritize the construction and development
of social housing to meet the actual needs
problems are solved, hundreds of projects
of current workers while also assisting the
will
market
market in overcoming the crisis. However, this
confidence. In addition, a number of legal
segment is having difficulty due to lengthy
documents on real estate will be amended in
procedures and low profits when compared
the near future to help regulate the market
to commercial projects. Recently, the Ministry
until 2030, including the Law on Housing, the
of Construction proposed a credit package
Law on Real Estate Business is expected to be
of 110,000 billion VND for a social housing
submitted to the National Assembly in the 5th
project, and the State Bank predicted that
session (May 2023) and approved at the 6th
the interest rate for a loan of 120,000 billion
session (October 2023) along with the Law on
VND credit package would be 1.5-2% lower
Land. In particular, Decree 65 will be approved
than the interest rate for other projects;
be
relieved,
strengthening
for amendments, helping to open up capital
sources for businesses from Q3/2023;
3rd
Interest rates are expected to rise by only 1%
this year, if at all. In the past, the rapid rise in
interest rates has created many difficulties for
the market, forcing home buyers to postpone
their plans. As a result, when interest rates
begin to fall, it will contribute to increased
market liquidity, reducing interest pressure on
both homebuyers and businesses. At the end
of March and the beginning of April, the State
Bank announced a reduction in interest rates
and a plan to rescue businesses, particularly
real estate businesses; for example, debt
rescheduling or bond extensions;
9
10
Market Report | Q1 2023
Market Report | Q1 2023
APARTMENT
In Q1/2023, the apartment market in three provinces:
Ho Chi Minh City
Supply & Demand
In the luxury segment, the average asking price ranged
compared to the previous quarter, by about 1-5% QoQ. The
In Q1/2023, the market in Ho Chi Minh City had 1
from 3,600-17,000 USD/sqm, down 3.5% YoY. The high-
average asking price of apartments in Ho Chi Minh City
newly launched project and 4 projects launched
end segment fluctuated around 2,000-3,900 USD/
ranged from 630 to 17,000 USD/sqm, a 3.8% decrease YoY.
in the next phase, with nearly 600 apartments
sqm, up about 0.5% YoY and the mid-end segment
The asking price in Hanoi was 840-8,800 USD/sqm, up 4.9%
launched into the market, mainly in the luxury
fluctuated at 970-2,100 USD/sqm, down about 1% YoY.
YoY, and Da Nang was 940-4,300 USD/sqm, up 3.5% YoY.
segment and high-end segment. Overall, the
Finally, there was the affordable segment with prices
about 2-3% and will start to increase sharply
The reason for this was that recent land fevers in Hanoi’s
luxury and high-end apartment segments were still
ranging from 600-1,000 USD/sqm, down about 2.5%
again by the end of 2023. The reason stems
suburbs have driven up the price of other segments such as
dominating the market, accounting for about 35%
YoY.
from limited supply, scarcity of products in the
apartments. The population of Hanoi was growing. Because
and 42% of the total apartment supply, respectively.
of these factors, apartment prices in Hanoi increased faster
Besides, the Eastern area was gradually leading in
than in Ho Chi Minh City at the start of 2023. However, given
the amount of supply of the city, especially Thu
the current scarcity of supply, many experts predict that
Thiem New Urban Area.
Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, and Danang decreased slightly
apartment prices in 2023 will be difficult to reduce because
HCMC APARTMENT AVERAGE ASKING PRICE
Q1 2023
upward
trend
in
the
mid-end segment, while strong demand, high
cost of raw materials and labor.
Q2/2023 in Ho Chi Minh City.
Source: TMS Consultancy, Research
No.
The Eastern area had been still leading in HCMC with
the highest average asking price, ranging from 1,500Source: TMS Consultancy, Research
Ho Chi Minh City Apartment Performance
APARTMENT PERFORMANCE BY CITIES | Q1 2023
slight
condominium segment, which will increase by
Units
decreasing.
a
Typical projects are expected to open for sale in
decreased significantly, and raw materials or input-related
problems for this type of project have shown no sign of
forecasts
Future Supply
HCMC APARTMENT SUPPLY | Q1 2023
the price of land for high-rise building projects has not yet
Given the above analysis, TMS Consultancy
In Q1/2023, the average asking price of apartments
in Ho Chi Minh City reached about 2,852 USD/sqm,
down about 3.8% YoY. The reason was that the land
Total
Developer
Supply
(Unit)
Expected
Asking
Price (USD/
sqm)
GS
Engineering &
Construction
Company
10,000
6,800 - 7,000
1
(Phase 2) (Thu Duc
City)
2
The Privia (Binh Tan)
Khang Dien
Home
TBC
2,500
3
Avatar Thu Duc
(Thu Duc City)
Hung Thinh
Group
300
2,600 - 3,000
2,500 USD/sqm, while the average asking price was
below 1,350 USD/sqm in the Northern area.
Location
Thu Thiem Zeit River
6,000 USD/sqm in all segments. Next, in the Western
and Southern area, the average price was about 850-
Project Name &
HCMC APARTMENT ASKING PRICE BY AREA
Q1 2023
fund here was scarce, the new supply to the market
was gradually less, interest rates increased and
buyer sentiment was under pressure from credit
policies. Typically, The Metropole Thu Thiem project
(Thu Duc City) had a secondary selling price ranging
from 6,500-14,000 USD/sqm for four subdivisions.
Particularly for The Opera (Phase 3) and The Opusk
Source: TMS Consultancy, Research
(Phase 4), secondary selling prices ranged from
more than 9,000-14,000 USD/sqm, up about 3.5%
Source: TMS Consultancy, Research
YoY. Recently, Gamuda Land had just launched the
Elysian Lo Lu (Thu Duc City) in the luxury segment,
the price was about 2,500 USD/sqm.
11
12
Market Report | Q1 2023
Market Report | Q1 2023
APARTMENT
Hanoi
Da Nang
Supply & Demand
The average asking price in the luxury segment ranged
Supply & Demand
The average asking price in Ngu Hanh Son district was
In Q1/2023, Hanoi had more than 500 apartments
from 3,000 to 8,800 USD/sqm, increased by 4.7% YoY. The
The Da Nang apartment market experienced the launch
leading in Danang’s market, ranging from 1,200-3,100
launched into the market, mainly in the high-end
high-end segment was 1,600-3,000 USD/sqm, up about
of 2 projects in the next phase in Q1/2023, with a total new
USD/sqm in all segments. Next was Hai Chau district
segment. However, this new supply was still lower than
5.25% YoY, and the mid-end segment was 1,000-2,100 USD/
supply of approximately 200 units and an absorption rate
and Son Tra district, the average price was about
before and throughout the epidemic. The decrease
sqm, up about 6.8% YoY. Finally, there was the affordable
of less than 30%. New supply was concentrated primarily
1,200-2,700 USD/sqm. Finally, Lien Chieu district, Cam
in apartment supply in Hanoi mainly resulted from
segment, with a price of around 900 USD/sqm, a 2.4% YoY
in the Lien Chieu and Ngu Hanh Son districts, with an
current tightening legal procedures, bank credit, and
Le district and Thanh Khe district, with prices ranging
increase.
average asking price from 1,000 to 1,200 USD/sqm. The
scarce land funds.
In general, the Northern area had the highest average
reason for the decrease in apartment supply in Danang
asking price, ranging from 1,400-4,500 USD/sqm in all
was that many developers were dealing with tightening
segments. In the Western and Eastern, the average price
real estate policies, rising interest rates, and people’s
was about 1,300-2,100 USD/sqm, while the Southern area
purchasing psychology becoming more considerate.
HANOI APARTMENT SUPPLY | Q1 2023
was below 1,400 USD/sqm.
HANOI APARTMENT AVERAGE ASKING PRICE
BY AREA | Q1 2023
from 950-2,500 USD/sqm.
DA NANG APARTMENT AVERAGE ASKING PRICE
BY DISTRICT | Q1 2023
DA NANG APARTMENT SUPPLY | Q1 2023
Source: TMS Consultancy, Research
Source: TMS Consultancy, Research
Source: TMS Consultancy, Research
Hanoi Apartment Performance
In Q1/2023, the average asking price ranged from 850-
Source: TMS Consultancy, Research
8,800 USD/sqm across all segments, increased 4.9%
YoY. The reason was a lack of supply, as well as the high
TMS Consultancy forecasts that the condominium
cost of raw materials and labor. Recently, The Grand
segment in Hanoi will continue to increase slightly,
Hanoi project in Hanoi’s Old Quarter in the super-luxury
segment had an asking price ranging from 25,000 to
30,000 USD/sqm.
about 1-2% in Q2/2023. The reason stems from the high
input costs of projects due to fluctuations in land prices,
construction material prices, and labor costs, thereby
creating pressure to increase apartment prices
HANOI APARTMENT AVERAGE ASKING PRICE
Q1 2023
Typical projects are expected to open for sale in Q2 2023
1
2
Source: TMS Consultancy, Research
13
Project Name &
Location
Developer
Masterise West
Height – Phase 2 |
Nam Tu Liem District
Masterise
Homes
Vinhomes Smart City
– The next phase |
Nam Tu Liem District
Vinhomes
Total
expected
units
TBC
TBC
TMS Consultancy predicts that the apartment
In Q1/2023, the average asking price of apartments ranged
price in Danang will continue to increase slightly,
from 950-4,300 USD/sqm in all segments, up about 3.4%
YoY, especially in the high-end segment. In the luxury
segment, the average asking price ranged from 2,7004,300 USD/sqm, up about 2.4% YoY. The high-end segment
ranged from 1,600-2,300 USD/sqm, up about 5.6% YoY, and
about 1-2% in Q2/2023. The reason stems from
the increase in prices of construction materials
and labor costs, infrastructure development,
especially projects near the sea are the first
choice of many investors.
the mid-end segment fluctuated at 900-1,400 USD/sqm,
Future Supply
up about 2.5% YoY.
Future Supply
No.
Da Nang Apartment Performance
DA NANG APARTMENT AVERAGE ASKING PRICE
Q1 2023
Expected
Asking
Price (USD/
sqm)
Typical projects are expected to open for sale in Q2
No.
Source: TMS Consultancy, Research
& Location
Developer
Total
expected
units
Expected
Selling Price
(USD/sqm)
1
The Estuary Tuyen
Son Da Nang | Hai
Chau District
Tuyen Son
Limited
TBC
TBC
2
Risemount Sea
Boutique | Ngu
Hanh Son District
Vicoland
TBC
2,500 - 2,700
2,400 2,500
2,300
Project Name
14
Market Report | Q1 2023
Market Report | Q4 2022
OFFICE
In general, in Q1/2023, the rental rate of offices in Ho Chi
Minh City, Hanoi, and Da Nang increased about 3-4%
YoY. Typically, in Ho Chi Minh City, the average rental
rate ranged from 17-65 USD/sqm/month, up about 4%
YoY, and the occupancy rate was more than 88%. Hanoi
had rental rates ranging from 12-43 USD/sqm/month,
up about 3-3.5% YoY, and an occupancy rate of more
than 80%. Finally, Danang, with average rents ranging
from 8-26 USD/sqm/month, is up about 3% YoY and
occupancy rate of more than 70%.
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE BY CITIES
Q1 2023
Source: TMS Consultancy, Research
15
16
Market Report | Q1 2023
Market Report | Q1 2023
Ho Chi Minh City
Hanoi
Da Nang
Ho Chi Minh City Office Performance
Hanoi Office Performance
Da Nang Office Performance
The average rent of office space in Ho Chi Minh City in
The total office supply in Hanoi had so far reached
The average rental rate of offices in Danang increased
Q1/2023 increased by about 4% YoY, Grade A reached
more than 1.6 million sqm. Besides, office buildings in
more than 46.8 USD/sqm/month, up 4.2% YoY and Grade
the central area were always the first choice of domestic
B reached more than 26.7 USD/sqm/month, up 3.4% YoY.
and international businesses. Notably, the entry of Grade
In particular, some Grade A offices in the CBD had rents
A projects with international standard quality, typically
up to 65 USD/sqm/month, meanwhile, some offices in the
Capital Place (Ba Dinh district). This was the first green
non-CBD also had rents reaching 35 USD/sqm/month. The
office building in Hanoi and had raised the average rental
occupancy rate of Grade A and B offices both reached
price in the area close to the rent in the central area.
more than 88%. In addition, logistics, financial services,
Accordingly, office rents in Hanoi increased by about 3.5%
and technology accounted for the majority of office
YoY, Grade A rents reached about 36.6 USD/sqm/month,
leasing transactions this year because of the demand for
up 3.8% YoY, and Grade B reached about 17.9 USD/sqm/
office space in the central area.
month, up 2.8% YoY. The occupancy rate of Grade A and B
HCMC OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE | Q1 2023
by about 3.2% YoY, Grade A reached about 16.8 USD/sqm/
month, up about 4.8% YoY and Grade B reached 11.4 USD/
sqm/month, up more than 1% YoY. The occupancy rate in
both Grades A and B was more than 70%.
DA NANG OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE
Q1 2023
was more than 80%.
HANOI OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE | Q1 2023
Source: TMS Consultancy, Research
According to TMS Consultancy, office rents in
Danang are expected to increase by nearly 1%
in the next quarter depending on location. The
reason is that many businesses have resumed
Source: TMS Consultancy, Research
According to TMS Consultancy, the rental rate in Ho
Chi Minh City will be increased by about 1-2 USD/sqm/
month. Specifically, Ho Chi Minh City will be adding
more than 300,000 sqm of Grade A and B office space
in the next 2 years. In particular, the focus is on two
projects in Thu Thiem and one project in District 1 that
have been joining the market. Overall, compared to
other segments, the office market is more promising
in 2023.
17
Project Name
According to TMS Consultancy, the rental rate
of offices in Hanoi will increase by about 1-1.5%in
operations and some companies have a need
to expand their scope, especially foreign
companies.
the coming time. The reason is that businesses
are operating strongly again after the Covid-19
Future Supply
pandemic, infrastructure is developed, and the cost
of construction materials and investment costs
No
Project Name
to buy buildings increase sharply. In addition, new
supply in the coming years is expected to shift to
the inner city and the West for businesses with large
demand for rental space because the central area is
Future Supply
No
Source: TMS Consultancy, Research
1
Sky Tower
2
The One Tower
Location
Expected
completion
year
NLA
(sqm)
Thanh Khe
District
2023
8,000
Hai Chau
District
2024
15,000
limiting land fund, and construction height..
Location
Expected
completion
year
NLA
(sqm)
District 1
2023
28,224
1
The Nexus
2
The Hallmark
Thu Duc City
2023
47,170
3
The Crest Tower B
Thu Duc City
2023
30,000
4
The Sun Tower
District 1
2024
6,042
5
Techcombank Tower
District 1
2023
37,000
Future Supply
No
Project Name
1
Lotte Mall Hanoi
2
Taisei Hanoi Office Tower
Location
Expected
completion
year
NLA
(sqm)
Tay Ho
District
2023
45,000
Cau Giay
District
2023
23,000
18
Market Report | Q1 2023
Market Report | Q1 2023
RETAIL
Overall, total retail sales of goods and
On the other hand, Vietnamese retail
services in Q1/2023 were estimated at
enterprises strive to keep the advantage.
1,505.3 trillion VND, up 13.9% YoY. In recent
Management innovation, brand identity,
months, retail services had been one of the
industry
sectors attracting the most foreign capital.
application,
In particular, big names such as Central
the recognized efforts of the domestic
Retail had spent the largest investment
retail system. If foreign retail systems
ever, about 1.45 billion USD (equivalent
had strengths in scale, the advantage of
to more than 34 trillion VND) for the
Vietnamese enterprises was that there
goal of doubling the number of stores in
are supermarkets and dense stores in
Vietnam. Aeon Group was also planning
residential
to expand stores in Vietnam towards
operating models. According to statistics,
developing multi-channel sales, keeping
domestic enterprises still account for 70-
prices and increasing Vietnamese goods
80% of retail outlets the country with big
in supermarkets. At the time when Central
names such as WinMart, Co .op Mart,...
Retail announced the new investment,
Aeon Group broke ground to build a
restructuring,
sales
areas
technology
improvement
with
many
were
flexible
RETAIL SALES OF GOODS AND SERVICES | Q1 2023
shopping mall in Hue with an investment
of nearly 170 million USD after launching
Aeon MaxValu supermarket chain with an
area of 300-500 sqm, located in residential
areas. Besides, Lotte Group had strengths
in operating large urban shopping malls,
planned to open more Lotte Mart in
Vietnam. In Ho Chi Minh City, this group
planned to build a large complex called
Eco Smart City. Meanwhile, in Hanoi, Lotte
planned to complete the construction of
Lotte Mall Hanoi in 2023.
19
Source: GSO Vietnam
20
Market Report | Q1 2023
Market Report | Q1 2023
RETAIL
Ho Chi Minh City
After a period of gloomy retail market
Megamall Thao Dien (Thu Duc City). The market also welcomed
due to lack of new supply, the official
many new brands such as Lesilla and Nerdy at Vincom Dong Khoi
opening of Thiso Mall (Thu Duc City) at
(District 1), Tiffany & Co at Union Square (District 1), ADLV at Thiso
the end of 2022 had contributed about
Mall, Memo Paris at Diamond Plaza and Takashimaya (District 1). It
33,000 sqm of floor space, bringing the
was expected that 4 commercial center projects will launch in 2023,
total active retail supply to 1,052 million
namely Central Premium Plaza, Vincom Mega Mall Grand Park,
sqm. Immediately, big brands flocked
Sunrise City Central, and Emart 2, contributing more than 116,000
here. Typically, Uniqlo fashion brand with
sqm of new retail space.
a store of about 1,700 sqm was in the final
HCMC RETAIL MARKET PERFORMANCE | 2019 - Q1 2023
stages of preparation before opening
for sale. Meanwhile, F&B chains such as
Starbucks, Pizza 4P’s, Paris Baguette as
well as fashion brands Levi’s, Valetino
Creation, Adidas had opened its doors to
customers at the new store in Thiso Mall.
At many other shopping malls in Ho Chi
Minh City, brands were also accelerating
Future Supply
coverage expansion. Typically, the retail
giant from Japan - Muji, after the newly
Source: TMS Consultancy, Research
opened 1,200 sqm store in Crescent Mall
In Ho Chi Minh City market, the average rent in the CBD area was
(District 7) was now also planning to open
recorded at 160 USD/sqm/month, up 10% YoY. For the non-CBD area,
a store of more than 2,000 sqm in Vincom
the average rent reached 40 USD/sqm/month, up about 17% YoY.
Occupancy rates at CBD and non-CBD are 96% and 86% respectively.
Hanoi
The average rent in the CBD area reached
HANOI RETAIL MARKET PERFORMANCE | 2019 - Q1 2023
Typical expected projects are below:
No.
Project Name
Location
GFA (sqm)
Year of completion
Thu Duc City
45,000
2023
District 6
29,161
2022
Thu Duc City
54,500
2023
District 1
20,000
2023 - 2024
Tay Ho District
200,000
2023
Nam Tu Liem District
9,789
2023
Ho Chi Minh City
1
Vincom Megamall Grand Park
2
Satra Mall (Centre Mall)
3
The Hall Mark
4
Sun Tower
Hanoi
118 USD/sqm/month, up 9% YoY and the
non-CBD area reached 28 USD/sqm/
month, up 14% YoY. The occupancy rate
in Hanoi was lower than Ho Chi Minh City,
at 90% and 83% respectively in the two
regions.
5
Lotte Ciputra Mall
6
My Dinh Pearl 2
7
Progressive Plaza
Ba Dinh District
50,000
2023 - 2024
8
Lotte Mall Hanoi
Tay Ho District
72,000
2023 - 2024
9
Aeon Mall Hoang Mai
Thanh Xuan District
84,000
2024
10
Taisei Hanoi Office Tower
Thanh Xuan District
1,720
2024
Source: TMS Consultancy, Research
21
22
Market Report | Q1 2023
Market Report | Q1 2023
HOTEL
Domestic tourists exceeded 27 million arrivals in
In Q1/2023, Korea continued to be the market with
In Q1/2023, hotel rents in some provinces increased
Q1/2023, increased about 5.4% YoY , while international
the highest number of visitors, reaching more than
slightly by about 1-6% QoQ and increased by 2-10%
visitors exceeded 2.7 million arrivals,increased 29.7%
811 thousand arrivals, accounting for about 30% of
YoY. Typically, in Ho Chi Minh City, the most popular
YoY. Tourist revenue reached more than 130 trillion
the total international arrivals. Next was the US with a
destination in Vietnam, accounting for more than
VND in Q1/2023. This result indicated that the hotel
total number of visitors reaching nearly 207 thousand
45% of the country’s visitors, the average hotel rent
market in Vietnam was performing well this quarter.
arrivals, accounting for about 7.7% of the total. Thailand
reached over 90 USD/room/night, up about 10% YoY
ranked third with nearly 145 thousand arrivals. China
and the occupancy rate reached more than 60%. In
ranked fourth place, with about 140 thousand arrivals.
Hanoi, the average rent reached nearly 80 USD/room/
It was followed by Taiwan, Japan, Malaysia, Australia,
night, up about 3.8% YoY and the occupancy rate
Cambodia, and India.
reached more than 55%. Some provinces and tourist
In general, the beginning of the year was not the peak
cities such as Da Nang, Nha Trang, Binh Thuan, Phu
season for international tourism, especially in long-
Quoc, Vung Tau all recorded an increase in hotel rents,
distance markets. Mainly growth came from close
about 2-6% YoY and the occupancy rate reached more
markets, the importance of which was the signal of
than 40%. Particularly, Quang Ninh and Can Tho had
recovery from the Chinese market. Besides, the cruise
rents of nearly 48 USD/room/night, up about 3% YoY,
passenger market had been very active in recent years
and occupancy rates of more than 34%.
VIETNAM TOURISM PERFORMANCE | Q1 2023
Source: GSO Vietnam & TMS Consultancy, Research
with a series of cruise ships arriving at Nha Trang, Da
Nang, Ba Ria – Vung Tau, Ho Chi Minh City, Quang
HOTEL PERFORMANCE BY CITIES | Q1 2023
Ninh with the majority of visitors from Europe and
Asia. In particular, the fact that China allows Chinese
companies to organize tours to Vietnam has created
favorable conditions and benefit in attracting Chinese
tourists, restoring normal tourism activities between
the two countries.
INTERNATIONAL VISITORS TO VIETNAM BY
COUNTRIES | Q1 2023
Source: TMS Consultancy, Research
According to TMS Consultancy, the hotel rental
rate will continue to increase by about 5-7%
in Q2/2023, mainly in the tourism provinces
including Da Nang, Nha Trang, Phu Quoc, and
Vung Tau. In addition, the supply of hotels in
some provinces is expected to increase. In Ho
Chi Minh City, for example, more than 2,500
rooms will come from brands such as Fusion,
Source: TMS Consultancy, Research
Hilton, and InterContinental by the end of
2023. By 2025, Hanoi is expected to have about
2,400 rooms put on the market, and Da Nang
with a new supply of more than 7,500 rooms.
23
24
Market Report | Q1 2023
Market Report | Q1 2023
INDUSTRIAL
In Q1/2023, the average land leasing price in the Southern region
In the period of 2021-2025, Vietnam can increase the
continued to lead the market, averaging about 160 USD/sqm/lease
area of new leased land in the future, meeting the
term, up more than 14% YoY. The reason was that the infrastructure in
requirements of foreign enterprises.
the South was gradually being completed, and many industrial parks
were located near seaports and national highways. Ho Chi Minh City,
Binh Duong and Long An were leading the Southern region with rents
from 120 to 280 USD/sqm/lease term, the occupancy rates in Ho Chi
Minh City reached 100%, Binh Duong reached about 92% and Long
An reached more than 75%. Besides, Ba Ria-Vung Tau and Dong Nai
had rental prices ranging from 100-220 USD/sqm/lease term, with
occupancy rates of more than 90% in Dong Nai province and nearly
80% in Ba Ria-Vung Tau. Land rental prices in the Northern region
reached an average of nearly 140 USD/sqm/lease term, up about 12%
YoY. Typically, in Hanoi, the price was from 170-250 USD/sqm/lease term,
with a 100% occupancy rate. The average rental price in Hai Phong,
Quang Ninh, Bac Ninh, Hung Yen was from 90 – 180 USD/sqm/lease
term, with an occupancy rate of more than 70%. In the Central region,
the average rent was about 75 USD/sqm/lease term, with occupancy
rates higher than 70%. Particularly, Danang had a rental price of about
60-100 USD/sqm/lease term and the rental capacity rate reached 82%.
According to TMS Consultancy, the rental
price of industrial park land is expected to
increase by about 5-7% in the next quarter,
especially many investors will aim for more
remote locations with lower prices such as
Binh Phuoc, Binh Thuan, Can Tho, Tien Giang
to reduce costs. The reason comes from the
development of transport infrastructure such
as the North-South expressway, Phan Thiet –
Dau Giay expressway, the expressway from
Ho Chi Minh City to the West, Cai Mep – Thi Vai
port, helping to connect more conveniently
with the industrial park. At the same time,
some large companies are planning to move
part of production from China to Vietnam
such as Microsoft, Google, Panasonic, Sharp,
Foxconn.
INDUSTRIAL PARKS BY TYPICAL REGION OF
VIETNAM | Q1 2023
Source: TMS Consultancy, Research
25
26
Market Report | Q1 2023
Part 3: Legal
Market Report | Q1 2023
1. Decree 10/2023/ND-CP governing Land Law Guidance
using land for production and business purposes
• Supplementing the provision that when winning
◊ Land allocation procedures in the event that just one
specified in Article 16 of Decree No. 43/2014/ND-
the auction, the reservation will be converted into a
CP, which has land area assigned by the State for
deposit to ensure the obligation to pay money;
investor passes the prequalification requirements: Some
articles of Decree No. 43/2014/ND-CP dated May 15, 2014 are
amended as follows: “Order and methods for land allocation
and land lease in the circumstances outlined in Clause 3 of
Article 29 of the Investment Law. If an investor is accepted
in accordance with the provisions of Clause 3, Article 29 of
the 2020 Investment Law, the order and processes for land
allocation, land leasing, and permission to modify land use
purposes provided in Clause 3, Article 68 of this Decree must
apply”. When an investor satisfies the conditions stipulated
by applicable legislation, the responsible authorities shall
carry out the investor approval procedures. This expansion
management, agricultural land used for public utility
purposes and may be separated into an independent
project, but the State has decided to recover and
allocate land or lease land to investors before the
effective date of this Decree, investors may continue to
use land until the expiration of the land allocation. In
the event that a decision on land acquisition has been
made, but no decision on land allocation or land lease
has been made, it shall comply with the provisions of
this Decree, with the exception of the case specified in
Point b, Clause 2, Article 118 of the Land Law “
◊ Conditions and criteria for repurposing land for rice
and finance plans for housing projects. Due to the existence
cultivation, protective forest land, and special-use
of a foundation for the completion of clearance, the investor
forest land for investment projects:
is allotted land for construction investment work.
• Having an investment project approved for investment
projects: A number of articles of Decree No. 43/2014/ND-CP
policies;
• Having an investment project included in the list
of district-level annual land use plans approved in
dated May 15, 2014 were amended to include: “For construction
works used for tourist accommodation in accordance with
the law on tourism on commercial land, if satisfying all
accordance with the law;
• Having an alternative afforestation plan or a written
fulfillment of the responsibility to pay for alternative
conditions prescribed by the laws on construction and real
estate business, they shall be granted certificates of land use
afforestation;
• Having
preliminary
environmental
impact
rights, ownership of houses and other assets attached to land
assessment and an environmental impact assessment
according to commercial land use purposes, service; land use
in accordance with the law on environmental
term as prescribed in Clause 3, Article 126, Clause 1, Article 128
protection;
fulfilling financial obligations) and the maximum
time limit of 120 days from the date of recognition
of winning the auction, if the investor fails to fulfill its
financial obligations, such results will be canceled;
• Supplement
the
provision
that,
upon
winning
the auction, the reservation will be converted into
a deposit. Article 16 paragraph 4 is amended as
follows: Decree No. 44/2014/ND-CP dated May 15,
2014, this new Regulation, which clearly defines
price adjustment coefficient method), the provincial
People's Committee shall issue land prices within
ninety days of the date of issuance of the allocation
decision, leasing or changing land use purposes;
2. Government Decision No. 33/NQ-CP, dated 11
March 2023, "On a variety of remedies to remove
obstacles and support the safe, healthy, and
sustainable growth of the real estate market."
The Government's Resolution No. 33/NQ-CP has
overall directed highly appropriate and successful
solutions, as well as assigning very detailed tasks to
each ministry, branch, and provincial government.
When implementing business investment projects
in urban and residential areas, they must "Plan, invest
in developing ecosystems of industrial real estate,
of the Land Law. Certificates of land use rights, ownership
• Agencies and persons competent to appraise and
of dwellings and other assets related to land, for real estate
approve policies on changing the use purpose of
service real estate, tourism, and residential real estate."
business
development
protective forest land, special-use forest land and
Simultaneously, Resolution No. 33/NQ-CP mandated
projects. Records demonstrating the performance of the
rice land to other purposes shall only be responsible
that "Real estate enterprises have the responsibility to
project owner’s financial obligations must be submitted; if
for the contents in Clauses 2 and 3 of this Article; not
prioritize all resources for debt payment, particularly
be responsible for other contents that have been
bond debt; actively research to restructure prices and
previously appraised, approved, decided, approved or
product configurations in line with the actual market
settled by competent agencies or persons;
needs."
initiatives
other
than
housing
there is a change in financial obligations, papers proving the
fulfilment of financial obligations for the modification must
also be submitted (except for cases of exemption or delay in
submission as prescribed by law)”. This addition does not have
a direct effect, but it is advantageous for resort projects and
◊ About the auction of land use rights:
•
certificate for properties sold and delivered to customers.
◊ Agreement on receipt of land use rights transfer for project
implementation: Amending and completing Article 4,
Clauses 1 and 5 of Decree No. 148/2020/ND-CP: “In the case of
Regulations on conditions for land to be auctioned
must have a 1/500 planning for housing projects
other non-residential real estate when there is a basis to give
27
a
certificate after winning the auction (5 days when
(except for determining land prices using the land
has a direct and favorable effect on the Group’s investment
◊ Certification of non-residential real estate development
• Supplementing the time limit for issuance of
from Joint Circular 14/2015 BTP and BTNMT;
•
Supplement the value of the reservation amount
equal to 20% of the total value of the land parcel
or land area calculated at the starting price for the
auction of land use rights;
28
Note: The property market research contained is verified to the best of TMS
Consultancy’s abilities. TMS Consultancy reports reflect an overview of the
current property market and are indicative research only. TMS Consultancy
does not guarantee the accuracy of research and forecasts contained herein.
TMS Consultancy does not accept any responsibility for losses arising from
reliance on the research and forecasting. TMS Consultancy recommends that
the reader obtain a detailed market study of the specific sector of interest
should a deeper understanding of the market be required.
MARKET
REPORT
Q1 | 2023
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For more information:
GENNIE PHAM
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+84 906 787 134
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HANH TRAN
Market Research Analyst
+84 989 164 644
hanh.tran@tms-investment.com
TRINH NGUYEN
Business Development Director
+84 902 571 399
trinh.nguyen@tms-investment.com
TMS Consultancy
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