Sports Clothing and Footwear Executive Summary – UK – August 2011 Sports Clothing and Footwear Executive Summary – UK – August 2011 Emma Clifford Clothing & Fashion Analyst The stagnation in the number of sport participants in the UK means that encouraging sales through existing physically active customers and focusing on fashion purchases will become increasingly important for sports retailers. The 2012 London Olympic Games promised to get more Britons involved in sport, however, this has failed to show fruition as yet, leaving the long-term impact of this mega event on people’s lifestyles uncertain. There is scope for sports retailers to step up to the bar and help to expand their own pool of customers by creating incentives to drive participation. 1 Sports Clothing and Footwear Executive Summary – UK – August 2011 The Market Figure 1: Best and worst case forecast value sales of sports clothing, 2006-16 6,500 Best case (£m) 6,259 6,000 Mintel forecast (£m) 5,712 Market value (£m) 5,500 Worst case (£m) 5,164 5,000 (£m) 4,007 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 Confidence intervals 95% 2,500 2,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Est. 90% 70% 50% Actual Forecast Source: Mintel The total sports clothing and footwear market is valued at £4.8 billion in 2011, a growth of 18% since 2006, according to Mintel estimates. Forecasts indicate that the market will be worth £5.9 billion by 2016. Figure 1 refers to the sports clothing market, not the total sports clothing and footwear market. Strong recovery for sports clothing in 2010, but pace slows Mintel estimates that the value of the sports clothing market increased by 21% over the past five years and is worth £3.3 billion in 2011. This eclipses the performance of the clothing market as a whole (including men’s and women’s outerwear and children’s clothing), which grew 9% over the same time frame. This highlights the growing influence that sportswear has within the fashion market and its relative resilience in the prolonged tough trading conditions, buffeted by its versatility to be worn for both practical and leisure purposes. Growth of the sportswear market was almost static in the recessionary climate of 2009; however the following year experienced a strong 7% spike in expenditure. This return to strong positive territory coincided with the FIFA World Cup, as football-related sales soared, particularly at the large sports multiples. 2 Mintel forecasts that sales of sports clothing will increase by 23% between 2011 and 2016 to achieve a value of £4 billion. Over this period, however, the pace of recovery is anticipated to slow in the prevailing midst of low consumer confidence and prolonged strain on disposable incomes in a turbulent economic landscape. The escalating production costs of sports apparel – owing to rising manufacturing costs, the soaring price of cotton and the increase in VAT – exert additional pressure on the industry. Sports Clothing and Footwear Executive Summary – UK – August 2011 Figure 2: Best and worst case forecast value sales of sports footwear, 2006-16 Market Factors 2,500 The Olympic opportunity Best case (£m) 2,043 Mintel forecast (£m) 1,827 Worst case (£m) 1,611 Market value (£m) 2,000 (£m) 1,548 1,500 1,000 Confidence intervals 500 95% 90% 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 70% Est. 50% Actual Forecast Source: Mintel Important sporting events have a track record of triggering higher levels of consumer spending, for example Sports Direct claims that the FIFA World Cup 2010 injected as much as £20 million in extra sales with its strongest ever day of trading when England played the USA. The capital’s hosting of the 2012 Olympic Games – which will see 10,500 athletes take part in some 302 sports over 17 days – presents a significant marketing opportunity for UK retailers and is anticipated to provide a considerable boost to the industry. Mintel’s research reveals that just over one in ten (12%) consumers are likely to buy more sportswear when a big sporting event is on. Retailers will benefit from sales of Olympic-themed merchandise (they need to follow stringent guidelines imposed by the London Organising Committee of the Olympic Games (LOCOG)), and spectators may want to purchase items akin to those worn by athletes. It is hoped that the Games will inspire higher levels of participation – a fundamental promise of London’s Olympic legacy – driving performance-related sportswear sales. However, with stalling rates of sports participation, the extent of the longer term impact on both people’s sporting habits and the market as a whole, remains uncertain. Sports footwear forecast to grow by 18% up to 2016 Sports footwear has enjoyed healthy growth of 12% between 2006 and 2011, with the market reaching a value of £1.5 billion. However, this has lagged behind the performance of the total footwear market, which has experienced growth of 17% over the last five years and is estimated to be worth £4.4 billion in 2011. Sports footwear sales were much more severely affected by the economic downturn than sports clothing, contracting by 6% in 2009. However, the market bounced back with renewed vigour in 2010 and 2011, seeing annual growth of 11% and 5% respectively. Sports shoes are a major component of the footwear market, making up over a quarter (26%) of its overall value. The value of the sports footwear market is set to be worth £1.8 billion in 2016 according to Mintel’s projections, a robust growth of 18%. 3 Sports Clothing and Footwear Executive Summary – UK – August 2011 Stagnating rates of play Individual and fitness-focused sports are significantly more popular than team games. Running and jogging have encountered the greatest growth in participants over the last five years, indicating that consumers are gravitating towards low-cost (or free) and convenient options for their fitness needs, which can easily be fitted around their busy lifestyles. These solo sports tend to require comparatively little kit, which can be purchased on an infrequent basis. This presents a challenge to sports retailers, who must focus on the performance-enhancing benefit of items such as specialist running shoes. Figure 3: Trends in attitudes towards health and fitness, 2006-10 Base: adults aged 15+ 60 55 55 55 55 53 53 53 54 52 I do some form of sport or exercise at least once a week 50 % 50 48 44 45 Ageing population poses a threat I should do a lot more about my health 44 As it expands, the UK population is experiencing a boom in the number of older consumers, with the over-65 age group projected to increase by 13% over the next five years to 19.3 million. Meanwhile, the 1519 and 20-24 age groups are predicted to decline by 7% and 4% respectively by 2016, equivalent to approximately 438,000 15-24s. Sport and exercise is dominated by the younger generation, and rates drop off dramatically in line with age. Mintel’s research shows that over six in ten over-65s do no form of sporting endeavour, compared to just three in 20 (14%) under-25s. The popularity of sports clothing and footwear worn as leisure attire also peaks among the under-25s, so diminishing numbers of these shoppers will hinder the performance of the industry. 42 42 Trying to lose weight 40 36 35 30 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: GB TGI, Kantar Media UK Ltd Q1 2007-11 (Oct-Sep)/Mintel According to both TGI and Sport England data, the upward progression in sports participation has ceased and rates dropped marginally in 2010, with just over half (54%) of consumers doing some form of exercise at least once a week. Club membership has also fallen, as consumers curtail their discretionary spend in response to stretched disposable incomes. Public spending cuts by the UK’s Coalition Government, including slashed funding for school and elite sport, could have a further negative effect on participation rates. Sports retailers can no longer rely on an expanding number of participants and must try to offset the negative implications of a depleted sporty consumer-base. Socio-economic shifts benefit market Sport is predominantly an upmarket pastime; TGI data indicate that over six in ten (63%) ABs take part in some form of weekly exercise compared to half of C2s and just over four in ten (42%) Es (which includes state pensioners). The population of ABs is forecast to hit 14.8 million by 2016, a strong growth of 6% on 2011 levels. These consumers are the keenest players and tend to have the means to spend on their hobbies, driving demand for high quality sports products that aid performance and heighten enjoyment in their individual sporting field. 4 Sports Clothing and Footwear Executive Summary – UK – August 2011 its estate and profitability, particularly following a highly valuable FIFA World Cup in 2010. JD Sports – where a fifth of sports shoppers head to – is also expected to power ahead of JJB Sports following extensive brand and retail acquisition. The C2 category, however, is expected to experience the most extensive growth, expanding by 8% to 11.9 million over the next five years. Although these consumers are less physically active, they are the most likely group to purchase items such as trainers, sports T-shirts, replica football shirts and fleeces – mainly to be worn as casualwear or for fashion purposes. These categories are therefore likely to witness the greatest increase in demand over the next few years. Customers at Sports Direct and JJB Sports are primarily male C2DEs, however fashion-orientated JD Sports appeals more to ABC1s and has an equal proportion of men and women. Companies, Brands and Innovation Growing influence of the internet A quarter of buyers of sports clothing and footwear shopped online in the last year from e-tailers such as Amazon, M and M Direct, ASOS and eBay. Online shoppers tend to be male, under 35, in full-time employment and from higher income households. Many price-savvy shoppers are deserting the big sports retailers and independents and instead turning to online retailers in pursuit of the lowest possible prices on easily comparable branded sports clothing and footwear. Figure 4: Outlets from which sports clothing and footwear have been purchased in the last 12 months, by estimated number of shoppers, June 2011 Base: 1,510 internet users aged 16+ who bought sports clothing and footwear in the last 12 months Number of shoppers aged 16+ (000s) 39% (20,082) Sports Direct 32% (16,407) JJB Sports 25% (12,836) 21% (10,817) Internet store JD Sports 12% (6,056) Next Footwear shop Mail order Marks & Spencer Independent sports shop Department store Non-specialists such as supermarkets, value clothing retailers, Marks & Spencer and Next are increasingly influential players in the sports clothing and footwear industry, taking advantage of the growing popularity of this category as casual leisure attire. They tend to be favoured by women, who are most likely to think that retail-branded sportswear is as good as sportsbranded gear. The supermarkets’ success in the sector lies in their convenience factor and their extreme value for money – George at Asda, for example, sells basic joggers from £4 and T-shirts from as low as £2. 19% (9,834) Value clothing retailer Outdoor clothing store Non-specialists encroach upon the market 19% (9,989) Supermarket 11% (5,434) 10% (5,331) 10% (5,176) 9% (4,658) 9%(4,606) 8% (4,244) Other sports specialist retailer 6% (2,898) Mid‐market fashion shop 6% (2,847) Somewhere else 13% (6,521) Source: GMI/Mintel Independents fighting a losing battle? Sports Direct dominates Less than one in ten consumers made purchases of a sporting nature at independent sports retailers, putting them behind many non-specialist stores. The key demographic for independent outlets are AB consumers in the 25-34 age group. Cyclists and golfers are most likely to shop at independent sports stores. Sports Direct commands the mainstream multiple sector, with four in ten (39%) sportswear buyers heading to this outlet in the last year, equivalent to 20 million UK adults. Nearly a third shop at JJB Sports – the market’s longest established multiple – making this the second most popular destination in Mintel’s survey. However, Sports Direct looks set to extend its leadership over its rival, as JJB Sports plans to close 95 stores by April 2013 following prolonged financial troubles. Meanwhile, Sports Direct continues to grow 5 Sports Clothing and Footwear Executive Summary – UK – August 2011 Mass consolidation of the market, the growing influence of e-commerce, increases in rent and the rising cost of sportswear have forced many independents into closure in recent years. However, their credentials as experts in the market still holds appeal for the real sports enthusiasts, who may prefer a more traditional customer service approach. This element of knowledge-sharing and specialist advice will be vital for the future of the independent sector. Football is the most popular sport for men, with 5.8 million males (23% of the adult male population) playing football on a monthly basis. A fifth of women, corresponding to 5 million females, swim, making this their favoured type of exercise. The leading activities for the most physically engaged 16-24s are running (39%) and going to the gym (36%), whilst all older age groups have a preference for swimming, a much lower impact activity. The Consumer Fashion over function Figure 6: Sports clothing and footwear purchased in the last 12 months, by reason for purchase, June 2011 Over a third not engaged in sport Base: 2,000 internet users aged 16+ Figure 5: Sports and physical activities participated in, by gender and socio-economic group, June 2011 50 43 40 45 % internet users aged 16+ Base: 2,000 internet users aged 16+ 42 39 40 % internet users aged 16+ 35 33 30 24 20 27 26 22 22 22 16 18 15 12 10 31 31 8 10 5 30 13 10 10 9 10 6 4 8 10 7 7 7 4 0 25 20 19 15 23 22 2122 18 23 20 21 2019 18 17 14 17 15 10 16 14 14 12 11 11 11 8 8 5 5 3 For sport 10 8 7 6 6 4 5 5 7 6 5 Source: GMI/Mintel 2 1 0 Male Female ABC1 Casualwear or fashion purposes The majority of sports clothing and footwear purchases are made with intent to be worn as casualwear rather than for practical purposes, emphasising the instrumental role that fashion plays in the performance of the market. Trainers, hoodies and fleeces are particularly bought to be worn as leisure attire, while it is only items designed for specific activities, like vests and leggings for aerobics or running, that are predominantly bought for functional reasons. It is vital for sports retailers to keep at the cutting edge of sport style trends, for example with designer or celebrity collaborations and exclusive oneoff collections, to attract the fashion hungry under25s, who are crucial to the industry. Endorsement from celebrities from the music industry may be particularly effective within the sports clothing and footwear market. C2DE Source: GMI/Mintel Mintel’s latest research indicates that three in ten men and four in ten women – equivalent to 7.8 million and 10.3 million adults in the UK respectively – do not take part in any form of sport. Patterns of sports participation display a socio-economic skew, with over four in ten (42%) C2DEs avoiding exercise (rising to 69% of E consumers, which includes state pensioners), compared to just three in ten ABC1s.The challenge to the industry is to promote spending among the entire participation spectrum, from the non-players, by focusing on the fashion and leisure element, through to those at the top levels of ability and commitment. 6 Sports Clothing and Footwear Executive Summary – UK – August 2011 Popularity of trainers prevails Tracksuit bottoms are marginally favoured by women (43% of women compared to 39% of men), and are very popular among under-25s (60%). The allure of jogging bottoms lies primarily in their comfort and ability to be worn as cosy loungewear. The market for joggers has benefited from the fashionable, relaxed post-yoga look, popularised by Sweaty Betty. Sports vests and leggings show a significant female bias, sales of which are boosted by the spreading popularity of running, yoga and aerobics. The overwhelming popularity of trainers for everyday wear prevails and they remain both a leisurewear wardrobe staple and an essential piece of kit for virtually all sporting activities. Nearly six in ten (58%) adults have bought sports shoes in the last year, peaking among men (63%) and the under-25 age group (72%). Both TGI data and Mintel’s research show that the popularity of trainers has increased over the past couple of years, aided by both the growing numbers of runners and the fashion for retro plimsoll-style shoes, such as Converse. Socio-economic divide Figure 8: Sports clothing and footwear purchased in the last 12 months, by socio-economic group, June 2011 Gender influences choice Figure 7: Sports clothing and footwear purchased in the last 12 months, by gender, June 2011 Base: 2,000 internet users aged 16+ 70 AB Base: 2,000 internet users aged 16+ 63 Male Female 60 % internet users aged 16+ 53 50 43 43 39 20 C2 50 40 30 20 10 33 30 % internet users aged 16+ 70 40 C1 60 31 30 25 20 10 23 28 26 25 23 21 20 17 16 10 11 12 7 0 8 8 11 11 9 0 Source: GMI/Mintel There appears to be a division in the market between sports items which are bought by the higher and lower social-economic groups. Trainers, football shirts, sports T-shirts and fleeces are predominantly purchased by C2 shoppers, for example, whereas jogging bottoms, shorts, sports and quilted jackets, rugby shirts, sports jackets, garments for other sports, waterproofs, leggings and vests are most popular among ABs. Interestingly, hoodies, despite their deeply negative association with teenage delinquency – especially considering the recent riots in the UK – are slightly more likely to be bought by an upmarket clientele. Purchasing behaviour drops off dramatically for E consumers, linked to their age and limited spending power. Source: GMI/Mintel Men are the principal drivers of sportswear sales as they are more engaged than women in both spectating and participating in sport, and they tend to prefer branded products. Sport T-shirts, usually with a prominent brand logo, and shorts appeal mainly to men. Similarly, football shirts, shorts, sports jackets, sportswear for other sports and waterproof clothing show a strong gender divide. 7 D Sports Clothing and Footwear Executive Summary – UK – August 2011 Purchasing linked to high internet usage The price tags of sports-branded products is a controversial issue, with the majority of consumers (69%) believing that they are too expensive – and three in ten strongly agreeing with this sentiment. Older consumers and those from less affluent households are most likely to be unhappy about the expense of brands such as Nike and Adidas. Almost half (46%) of consumers do not think it is worth spending a lot of money of sportswear and over four in ten (43%) think that retailers’ own-branded merchandise is as good as sports-branded items. This clearly demonstrates that the big sports names no longer possess the power that they once held over the industry. There is a strong correlation between people who buy sports clothing and footwear and intense internet usage (seven or more hours per day), suggesting that this means of advertising could have a substantial impact on sport retailers’ key target audience – the under-25s. However, online advertising currently accounts for a minute proportion of total media expenditure (5%) and has fallen over the past few years. This presents an opportunity for sports brands and stores to increase their attention to online marketing strategies. Sports brands overpriced Sports participants are more likely to disagree with these statements and are more willing to pay a premium for specialist sports brands; however, even among these consumers the over-riding feeling is that these items are too costly. Figure 9: Sports clothing and footwear purchased in the last 12 months, by socio-economic group, June 2011 Base: 2,000 internet users aged 16+ Sports brands are too expensive I only buy to replace worn items 55 17 I buy bargain sportswear during sales or on auction sites 48 15 I don’t think it is worth spending a lot on sportswear Most sports shops are too focused on fashion these days 46 18 Replacement is the primary reason for purchase 45 14 Retailer branded sportswear is just as good as sports‐branded 43 15 I buy sportswear to wear with my regular clothes 31 40 Most consumers (55%) only buy new sports clothing or footwear out of necessity when their old items have come to the end of their functional lives, peaking among 55-64s (62%). The challenge to the sports apparel category is to increase frequency of purchase by creating reasons to want new items other than merely replacement, for instance improvements in fabric technology. Agree Disagree 34 31 I prefer to buy branded sportswear Sports shops only cater for young people 28 I tend to buy fashionable rather than performance trainers 27 25 I have bought more sports clothing since doing more sport More likely to buy sportswear when a big sporting event is on Unwilling to pay a premium price for sports brands, shoppers are increasingly hunting out bargains, either by waiting for sales or turning to auction sites such as eBay (48%). 69 8 12 33 39 41 65 % internet users aged 16+ Continued development of products which promise to enhance the performance of sports participants in new and innovative ways will help to drive sales from keen players, who are already more willing to buy sportswear as a ‘want’ rather than a ‘need’ purchase. Similarly evolving styles and designs will appeal to the trend-led under-25s, who are more liable to make impulse purchases to keep up with the latest fashions. To entice consumers into buying new ranges, it is also important for them to showcase the merchandise in new and compelling ways, or enhance their offerings in terms of service, for example by offering free biomechanical assessment for footwear buyers. Source: GMI/Mintel 8 Sports Clothing and Footwear Executive Summary – UK – August 2011 Too focused on fashion What we think Sports multiples’ foray into fashion and leisurewear has allowed them to cast their net over a greater source of potential customers and it is this broad appeal that has insulated the market from the impact of the recession. However, with the majority of items now being purchased to be worn simply as casual clothing, sports retailers risk losing their identity as specialists in the field. Over four in ten (45%) consumers think that these outlets have become too focused on fashion these days. The sports clothing and footwear market faces many obstacles over the next few years, not least the UK’s ageing population and dwindling numbers of the industry’s key age group – the under-25s. Stalling rates of regular sports participation are evident from both TGI and Sport England data, and this is likely to be exacerbated by public funding cuts to the sports sector. Sports retailers therefore will no longer benefit from a growing pool of players. It is also questionable whether the London 2012 Olympic Games will be enough to reinvigorate interest in sport. Sports participants – particularly those who cycle and players of tennis and golf – are most disgruntled by the shift in attention away from practical sport and towards fashion. These retailers may not be sufficiently catering for the most devoted sports players, in terms of the range of items and quality of garments, who instead turn to specialists for their activewear. Striking the optimum balance between functional sportswear and fashion attire, and not overlooking customers from any part of the participation scale, is the challenge sports outlets face. The importance of fashion to the performance of sportswear sales is not to be underestimated; the majority of purchases of trainers and sports garments are made to be worn as comfortable or stylish casualwear rather than for practical purposes. This versatility and broad appeal has insulated the market from both recessionary climes and the public’s diminishing participation in sport. However, many consumers think that these retailers have become too orientated towards fashion and have lost their essence as experts in the sporting field. They run the risk of alienating the athletes at the top levels of ability and players of less mainstream sports. In order to maximise sales, retailers need to strike the optimum balance and maintain their credentials as both sport specialists and trendy fashion destinations. Under-35s driving spectator sport related sales Just over one in ten consumers are more likely to buy sportswear when a big sporting event is on, and two thirds actively disagree with this statement. So even though retailers report rising sales to coincide with important sports events, consumers do not believe they are influenced in their purchasing behaviour by these occasions. Most interest comes from under-35s, a fifth of whom are inspired to make purchases during events such as the FIFA World Cup and the Olympic Games. Football (35%) and tennis (37%) players have the highest tendency to agree with this sentiment, with sales of football shirts in particular surging during important tournaments. The overriding feeling is that sports brands are too expensive and price-savvy consumers are increasingly comparing prices, searching for promotions and hunting out the ultimate bargains online, in a market where price-slashing is rife. The mass consolidation within the market, and the dwindling number of independents, which are being pushed out of the market, means that a lot of the customer service element, in terms of knowledge and advice, is being lost. To tempt people away from the internet and back into the bricks-and-mortar stores, retailers need to offer something extra that e-tailers, such as Amazon, cannot provide. They also need to develop inventive ways to break people’s inclination to buy only for the mundane reason of replacement. Retailers could place more emphasis on playing an advisory role, with added value given in the form of performance enhancing services such as free 9 Sports Clothing and Footwear Executive Summary – UK – August 2011 biomechanical assessment for runners. There is also scope for shops to become involved in encouraging higher levels of participation to expand their source of customers. The introduction of store loyalty schemes that give shoppers reduced participation fees in local sporting facilities would be a good way to drive repeat custom while getting more people physically active. This idea could also be applied to children, by offering discounted entry fees into activity zones, such as Crazy Kids, with children’s sportswear purchases. 10 Sports Clothing and Footwear Executive Summary – UK – August 2011 Emma Clifford Clothing & Fashion Analyst E-mail eclifford@mintel.com Telephone +44 (0) 20 7606 4533 Emma researches and writes Mintel’s UK fashion and clothing reports. Emma gained retail experience from her time working within Debenhams distribution department at the company’s head office. She has also worked at Marketforce, providing analytical support to internal departments and publishers. Emma has a First class Honours degree in Environmental Earth Science. 11