EFFECT OF MORTGAGE FINANCING ON REAL ESTATE GROWTH: A STUDY OF HOUSING FINANCE BANK LIMITED, KAMPALA DISTRICT BY PAUL OKELLO BSC ELE ENG – MAK 13MBA0154 A RESEARCH DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO HIGHER DEGREES IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF MASTER DEGREE OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION (FINANCE) OF UGANDA MARTYRS UNIVERSITY NKOZI JULY - 2015 i Declaration I, Paul Okello declare that this dissertation is my original piece of work and has not been published or submitted to any university or institution for any award of a degree Signed…………………………………… Date……………………………………… Paul Okello Student ii Approval This dissertation has been written and submitted with the approval of the University supervisor Signed……………………. ……………Date……………………………………. Ms. Viola Asimwe University Supervisor iii Dedication This dissertation is dedicated to my parents Mr. and Mrs. J.P. Etot, who have always wished the best to me. iv Acknowledgment I give my first acknowledgement to my supervisor: Ms. Viola Asimwe, who has guided me through the research and the general dissertation writing; without her tireless effort this research would not have been completed in time and in accordance to the university regulations. I thank the management of Housing Finance Bank who allowed me to carry out the research at their institution and the employees who filled in the questionnaires during the study. With an immense gratitude, I thank my family for the constant encouragement and understanding during the times when I was busy attending classes at the university and research field study. v Table of Contents Declaration ...................................................................................................................................... ii Approval ........................................................................................................................................ iii Dedication ...................................................................................................................................... iv Acknowledgment ............................................................................................................................ v List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. ix List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ xi List of Abbreviations .................................................................................................................... xii Abstract ........................................................................................................................................ xiii CHAPTER ONE ..................................................................................................................................... 1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................... 1 1.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background to the study ............................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 Historical background ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 Conceptual perspective ................................................................................................................. 3 1.1.3 Theoretical perspective ................................................................................................................. 5 1.1.4 Contextual perspective .................................................................................................................. 5 1.2 Statement of the problem .............................................................................................................. 7 1.3 General objective .......................................................................................................................... 9 1.3.1 Objectives of the study.................................................................................................................. 9 1.4 Research questions ........................................................................................................................ 9 1.5 Scope of the study ......................................................................................................................... 9 1.5.1 Content scope .............................................................................................................................. 10 1.5.2 Geographical scope ..................................................................................................................... 10 1.5.3 Time scope .................................................................................................................................. 10 1.6 Significance................................................................................................................................. 10 1.7 The conceptual framework.......................................................................................................... 12 1.8 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 13 CHAPTER TWO ........................................................................................................................ 14 REVIEW OF LITERATURE .................................................................................................... 14 2.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 14 2.1 Literature survey ......................................................................................................................... 14 vi 2.2 Theoretical Framework ............................................................................................................... 15 2.2.1 The Modern Portfolio Theory of Management ........................................................................... 16 2.2.2 Structural Form theory ................................................................................................................ 18 2.3 Study literature ............................................................................................................................ 19 2.3.1 Accessed mortgage finance and real estate growth..................................................................... 20 2.3.2 Repayment period and real estate growth ................................................................................... 27 2.3.3 Mortgage default and real estate growth ..................................................................................... 29 2.4 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 31 CHAPTER THREE .................................................................................................................... 32 METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................................... 32 3.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 32 3.1 Research design .......................................................................................................................... 32 3.2 Study area and population ........................................................................................................... 32 3.3 The sample size and selection ..................................................................................................... 33 3.4 Sampling techniques ................................................................................................................... 33 3.5 Sources of Data Collection ......................................................................................................... 34 3.6 Methods of data collection .......................................................................................................... 34 3.7 Data collection instruments ......................................................................................................... 34 3.7.1 Self – Administered Questionnaires ........................................................................................... 34 3.8 Reliability and Validity ............................................................................................................... 35 3.9 Data Management and Analysis ................................................................................................. 35 3.10 Ethical Considerations ................................................................................................................ 36 3.11 Limitations ........................................................................ Ошибка! Закладка не определена. 3.12 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 36 CHAPTER FOUR ....................................................................................................................... 38 PRESENTATION, INTERPRETATION AND ANALYSIS OF THE FINDINGS ............. 38 4.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 38 4.1 Bio-data of the respondents......................................................................................................... 38 4.2 Research Objectives .................................................................................................................... 43 4.2.1 Accessed mortgage funds and real estate growth ....................................................................... 43 4.2.2 Mortgage finance default ............................................................................................................ 47 4.2.3 Repayment period and growth of real estate ............................................................................... 53 4.3 Mortgage finance and growth of real estate ................................................................................ 56 vii 4.4 Statistical analysis to the findings ............................................................................................... 57 4.5 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 59 CHAPTER FIVE ........................................................................................................................ 61 DISCUSSION, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................... 61 5.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 61 5.1 Discussion of Findings ................................................................................................................ 61 5.1.1 Effects of accessed mortgage funds on real estate growth .......................................................... 61 5.1.2 Effects of mortgage default on real estate growth ...................................................................... 62 5.1.3 Effects of mortgage repayment period on real estate growth...................................................... 63 5.2 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 64 5.3 Recommendations ....................................................................................................................... 64 5.4 Areas of further Research ........................................................................................................... 66 References .................................................................................................................................... 67 Appendices ................................................................................................................................... 70 Appendix A .................................................................................................................................. 70 viii List of Tables Table 3.1 Illustration of the sample size and distribution…………….……………………34 Table 4.1.1 Types of real estate developed by mortgage finance……………………………41 Table 4.1.2 Repayment period for mortgage………………………………………………...41 Table 4.1.3 Mortgage finance is the best approach to fund real estate………………….…..42 Table 4.1.4 whether the bank attracts its employees to real estate development.............…...43 Table 4.2.1 Accessed mortgage finance helps in getting new construction sites……………44 Table 4.2.2 Accessed mortgage finance helps to pay workers……………………………....44 Table 4.2.3 Accessed mortgage finance increase moral among developers……………..….45 Table 4.2.4 Accessed mortgage finance increases developers assets…………………….....45 Table 4.2.5 Accessed Mortgage finance increases on real estate growth…………………..46 Table 4.2.6 Accessed mortgage finance attracts investors into real estate development…..47 Table 4.3.1 Mortgage finance default hinders daily activities of Housing Finance Bank…48 Table 4.3.2 Mortgage finance default creates employee turnover…………………………48 Table 4.3.3 Mortgage finance default hinders growth of real estate………………………49 Table 4.3.4 Mortgage finance default compels the bank to sell assets of developers…….50 Table 4.3.5 Mortgage finance default hinders administrative work of HFB……………...50 Table 4.3.6 Mortgage finance default reduces the financial resources of the developers…51 Table 4.3.7 Mortgage finance default reduces the development of real estate…………….52 Table 4.3.8 Mortgage finance default stresses the developers……………………………..52 Table 4.3.9 Repayment period creates ample time to accumulate profits among developers …………………………………………………………………………………53 Table 4.4.2 Repayment period promotes activities for the growth of real estate………….54 Table 4.4.3 Repayment period allows planning for estates………………………………..55 Table 4.4.4 Repayment period allows consultations with stakeholders…………………...55 ix Table 4.5.1 Mortgage finance increases the rate of real estate development…………….57 Table 4.5.2 Mortgage finance is better than loans in development of real estate………..57 Table 4.5.3 Mortgage finance suits the conditions in Uganda…………………………..58 Table 4.6.1 Test statistical significance about accessed mortgage finance to the growth of real estate…………………………………………………………………………58 Table 4.6.2 Test statistical significance of mortgage finance default in HFB on real estate growth……………………………………………………………………….59 Table 4.6.3 Test statistical significance of repayment period in HFB on real estate growth ………………………………………………………………………………59 x List of Figures Figure 1.1 Conceptual framework…………………………………………………………..12 Figure 4.1.1 Gender of respondents…………………………………………………………...38 Figure 4.1.2 Age of respondents………………………………………………………………39 Figure 4.1.3 Level of education of respondents……….………………………………………40 Figure 4.1.4 Attitude of developers to mortgages…………………….…………………….....42 xi List of Abbreviations ABS Asset Backed Securities BOU Bank of Uganda CDO Collaterized Debt Obligation DFCU Development Finance Company of Uganda EADB East Africa Development Bank EU European Union FMBN Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria GDP Gross Domestic Product HFB Housing Finance Bank IMF International Monetary Fund MPT Modern Portfolio Theory MREPT Modern Real Estate Portfolio Theory MBS Mortgage Backed Securities NHTF National Housing Trust Fund PTA Preferential Trade Area REDAN Real Estate Developers Association of Nigeria REIT Real Estate Investment Theory SPSS Scientific Program for Social Scientists SPV Special purpose Vehicle SSA Sub-Saharan Africa UBOS Uganda Bureau of Statistics UGX Uganda Shillings xii ABSTRACT The study investigated the effect of mortgage financing on real estate growth taking Housing Finance Bank as a case study in Kampala District. In doing so, the study objectives were: 1) to establish how accessed mortgage funds from Housing Finance Bank affect real estate growth; 2) to analyze the effects of mortgage default in Housing Finance Bank on real estate growth; 3) to examine the effects of mortgage repayment period in Housing Finance Bank on real estate growth A cross sectional survey research design was used on a total population of 150; of whom 80 respondents selected as sample size. Both purposive and random sampling techniques were used to reach the sampled respondents under which Self- Administered Questioners used as tools to collect the data composed of qualitative and quantitative information. The data was organized by the computer programme – Scientific Program for Social Scientists (SPSS) and analyzed using the chi-square. The findings reveal that accessed mortgage fund is instrumental to developing real estate in Uganda although most people do not have the ability to access it. It was also found that default of the mortgage finance does not only affect the developing the estate but more the banks whose funds are used in the process. The study also reveals that repayment period to developers is short and there is a need to increase on the period to the clients. While the conclusion shows that the idea of mortgage finance is good enough to the development of the estate, there is a need to construct houses by the bank such that people without security can buy houses directly. There is also a need to use more simplistic policies but more sensitive in reclaim the mortgage finance from the clients. xiii CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.0 Introduction The study examined the effects of mortgage financing on real estate growth using Housing Finance Bank Limited (HFB Ltd) in Kampala District as a case study. As urban population increases partly due to rural-urban migration, accommodation becomes scarce and this attracts stakeholders in housing and construction to increase impetus in constructing houses to accommodate the increasing number. In Kampala District, developers and stakeholders normally get mortgages from Housing Finance Bank Ltd to buy or construct real estates and houses. Despite of its effort to give mortgage finance, UBOS (2010) reveals a crisis of 550,000 housing units of which 160,000 are in urban areas and 100,000 units in Kampala alone. This study established the effects of mortgage financing by HFB Ltd on real estate growth in Kampala District. This chapter starts with background to the study, statement of the problem, objectives, research questions, scope and significance. 1.1 Background to the study 1.1.1 Historical background Housing Finance Bank is one of the commercial banks in Uganda that has been licensed by the Bank of Uganda (BoU) in 2008 to carry out its commercial activities in the nation (Juuko, 2010). It was incorporated in 1967 as a housing finance company of Uganda Limited carrying out business as a non-banking credit institution with focus on providing mortgage finance for construction of residential houses and accepting saving deposits from the public. According to BoU (2014), Housing Finance Bank was the 9th largest commercial bank in Uganda with an 1 asset base estimated at approximately US$220.1 million (UGX:558.4 billion), and shareholders' equity of approximately US$42 million (UGX:106.4 billion); representing about 3.5 percent of all bank assets in the country at that time. According to Juuko (2010), the National Social Security Fund (Uganda) owns 50 percent of the Housing Finance Bank and the Government of Uganda through the Ministry of Finance owns 45 percent. The remaining 5 percent is owned by the National Housing and Construction Company. In its mission, Housing Finance Bank has major attributes such as Vision, Mission and Values. Its value is to become innovative African Bank that enables people to realize their financial dreams. The Mission is to provide financial solutions to a diverse community through efficient and effective systems so as to exceed customer expectations and enhance shareholder value while its value is to cherish Excellence, Customer Centricity, Continuous Learning, Integrity and Teamwork. The main objective of Housing Finance Bank rotates around increasing the construction, purchase, extension or improvement of residential and commercial residential properties, and purchase of plots in urban areas within Kampala and its suburbs. According to HFB (2014), individuals are eligible to access the mortgage if they have monthly repayment not exceeding 35 percent of ascertainable monthly income. Where an individual’s regular income is not sufficient, additional security is required. For individuals looking for mortgages using property such as land, a valid land title and building plans with local authority approval, are a must and to be presented to the bank official in charge for careful scrutiny. In addition to these, the construction must be in permanent materials and the building serviced / to be serviced with water and electricity. Mortgages are given depending on the current modern Uganda a minimum of UG SHS 5 million depending on the property location and value. The loan available cannot exceed 2 70 percent for construction of residential units in Kampala, 80 percent for purchase of property within Kampala, 60 percent for an urban plot loan this should not exceed 80 million, 60 percent for equity release loans of the property value as given by the bank’s valuer and Maximum 30 million for the growing houses. 1.1.2 Conceptual perspective The literal definition of a mortgage to this study was coined from Tuma (2005) where he defines a mortgage as something that occurs when owners pledge interest as security or collateral for a loan. This means that a mortgage can apply to any sort of property such as a car, land and a building. The working definition for mortgage that was used to this study was an instrument that is used as a pledge to real estate or as a security for an obligation in the process of pledging real estate as security (Hassanein and Barkouky, 2008). It needs to be emphasized that mortgage financing industry in Uganda has grown in different perspectives but the most recognized ones are three dimensions. These include mortgage related products on offer, the banking institutions in the mortgage industry and the value of the mortgage portfolio (Hadiya, 2012). In the current Uganda, a total of nine banking institutions including Housing Finance Bank, Development Finance Company of Uganda Bank Limited (DFCU) Bank, Stanbic Bank, Barclays Bank, Equity Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, Centenary Bank, Kenya Commercial Bank and Bank of Africa are offering mortgage facilities (Ngumo, 2012). However, this study considered mortgage finance from the Housing Financial Bank. Mortgage financing refers to a loan secured by collateral of some specified real estate property that the borrower is obliged to pay back with predetermined set of installments over certain period regulated by the bank in question (Bienert and Brunauer, 2006). This was taken as an 3 operational definition and more relevant to this study. It was taken as a loan secured by collateral of some specified real estate property that the developer or the borrower is meant to repay within the agreed period of time and installments. It is usually for the purchase or construction of housing estates (real estate) by individuals or companies. According to Obody (2013), countries in Africa continue facing housing deficits emanating from interest rates that put demand for finance at ebb. It is noted that without any exception the Sub-Saharan Africa face significant housing deficits due to poorly developed housing institution and markets, stocks which are in poor condition, a huge backlog of housing need and weak policy responses (Njiru and Moronge, 2013)” . Awuvafoge (2013) is of the view that housing deficit in Sub-Saharan Africa has led to the entry of international housing finance institutions such as Shelter Afrique, East Africa Development Bank (EADB), and Preferential Trade Area (PTA) bank. He further remarked that the extent of housing deficit is huge in Africa, as exemplified by the housing deficits in countries of East Africa and Uganda in particular. It is from this circumstance that mortgage finance was born to fill such gaps. On the other hand, real estate is a property of land and buildings on it along with natural resources such as crops, minerals or water that are immovable property in nature (Bienert and Brunauer, 2006; Oxford English Dictionary, 2011). Real estate growth was used to refer to expansion of estate houses in a nation as a result of demand and supply forces in the market. Edelstein and Tsang (2007) noted that the process of real estate growth is a long one and stems from demand or crisis within the housing sector that normally attract developers or borrowers to seek for mortgage finance from the banks to develop real estates to fill the growing crisis. Normally, the rising prices for houses due to the bust of real estate create a cycle that calls for 4 intervention. These were taken as operational definitions explaining independent and dependent variables of the study. 1.1.3 Theoretical perspective The study was guided by a Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) of management of investment finance developed by Harry Markowitz. After Thirty-eight years, he shared a Nobel Prize with Merton Miller and William Sharpe for what came to be a broad theory for portfolio selection and corporate finance. The theory examines how risk averse-investors construct portfolios in order to enhance market risk against expected returns. It quantifies benefits of diversification. 1.1.4 Contextual perspective The contextual perspective whirled on mortgage financing and real estate growth in Uganda. Housing Finance market contributes significantly to addressing problems of housing inadequacy or insufficiency by providing home buyers with long-term mortgage loans and relatively moderate monthly installments (Addai, 2011). The availability of Finance is a key issue for any housing development activity. It affects developers, contractors and the ultimate buyers of the housing units. An efficient and sustainable housing finance regime is a pre-requisite for sustainable housing delivery for the citizens of a nation (Addai, 2011). The Center for Affordable Housing Finance in Africa (2013) records that the 2002 Population and Housing Census of Uganda presents that 70 percent of houses are built with temporary building materials. Of these, 27 percent are in urban areas. Onoria (2007) further reveals that commercial real estate market worldwide is increasing and dominated by institutional investors yet in Uganda the information about real estate and their management is largely limited. 5 Banks in the country normally offer mortgages in which Ugandans can beautify or modernize their houses but majority of Ugandans have not picked interest to apply for mortgages and some players in housing sector blame it to poor economic performance of the country's economy which lowers the purchasing powers of the local people especially those in private sector. Mortgage financing has many challenges in Uganda such as inflation rate and this leads commercial banks to increase interest rates on mortgage financing; and generally affect mortgage business. Some Banks such as Centenary Rural Development Bank have subsidized their mortgages for low income earners but hardly do Ugandans apply for them. Due to intricacy involved in general process of mortgage financing, many real estate companies try to diversify businesses to provide land and looking for tenants yet they are unsustainable. Besides, there is financial constraint that normally affects effort to mortgages. These are absolute lack of long-term funds due to absence of private or public contractual savings products and limited long-term funds that normally exist. Of 5.2 million households, only 0.6 percent can access mortgage loans through commercial banks (World Bank, 2009). Uganda’s mortgage lending is therefore very limited. The country has two financial institutions with mortgage books of repute: the Housing Finance Bank (HFB) and the Development Finance Company of Uganda (DFCU). The former has had difficulty in managing its book while the latter is seeking lines of credit so that it can increase its long-term lending. It is from this contextual perspective that the study assessed effect of mortgage financing on the growth of real estate using Housing Finance Bank in Kampala District. 6 1.2 Statement of the problem The rapid increase in the size and cost of projects through the years has created a new dimension to real estate industry with regards to project financing. There is a need for real estate developers to access long term finance for their project investments. In the modern mortgage markets, mortgage transactions are effectuated in the primary mortgage market between the borrower and the mortgage originators. Mortgages originated in the primary mortgage market are sold into the secondary mortgage market as part of a package of mortgages that comprise a mortgage-backed security (MBS), Asset-Backed security (ABS) or collateralized debt obligation (CDO) (Olumide et al, 2013). Where both markets exist, loans tend to be long term with fixed rates while where only the primary market exists; loans are short term with variable rates because these mortgages are funded through deposits and deposits are short term. Pittman (2008) is of the view that obtaining a mortgage in today’s market is a complicated process since it involves many procedures like identifying the best service provider with best interest rates which has stood challenges to most people as well as developers. Besides, repayment period has remained a major challenge since it is low. Agaba et al (2009) confirmed that in the current housing crisis, family and friends have become imperative in sensitizing developers and consumers about mortgage options and what to expect at the end. The housing finance sector is constrained by lack of sufficient long-term liabilities, owing underdeveloped pension industry and a limited life insurance funds (Kalema et al, 2013). Kalema et al (ibid) go on to assert that in Uganda, mortgage finance is not growing significantly and this calls for analysis to come up with improved ways to increase its growth. There is lack of sensitivity in mortgage rate setting to the macro environment in Uganda which hinders the increase in the number of the people or individuals that would have involved in real estate growth. The absence 7 of a strong link to capital market funding and the lack of consumer price elasticity mean that the bank is able to offer rates which are much higher than its cost of funds (World Bank, 2011). The difficulty with such a high interest margin for term finance is that it has to be additional to the capital market rate as set by the supply curve. According to UBOS (2010), there is a housing crisis of 100,000 units in Kampala District and Ministry of Lands; Housing and Urban and Urban Development (2012) asserted that housing crisis is likely to hit 160,000 units in Kampala City by 2020. There is therefore a need to increase accessibility to finance by residential property developers. This calls for participation of government and lending institutions to provide financial assistance to real estate developers to increase the rate of construction. Real estate is a capital intensive investment and developers often face challenges in accessing finance, to complete the various stages in their development process which they commence with cash savings and personal loans from family members and in other cases from money lenders. In Uganda, lack of access to long term capital is a major barrier to real estate delivery. Even though the government policies recognize the private sector’s dominant role in housing provision, the banks have short term funding and unable to lend on medium or long-term bases, thus crippling the real estate industry. Berry et al (2010) asserts that when households fail to meet their mortgage repayments, they take on more and more expensive debts, they take on more debts by borrowing from family and friends, some house hold members increase their level of labour market participation to increase their earnings, bankruptcy as a consequence of loan default and loss of mortgaged property to the mortgagee. The Mortgagor may be forced to sell the property or to rent out the property and raise income to pay back the debt. 8 Through Mortgage lending, the bank is able to improve its performance and Profitability, attract more customers, Promotion of innovation and market penetration, increased income and economic growth and diversification of portfolio. There is also the effect of fraud between bank staff and mortgagor. This therefore attempted to establish the effects of mortgage financing on real estate growth in Kampala District. 1.3 General objective The study examined the effects of mortgage financing from Housing Finance Bank on real estate growth under 1.3.1 Objectives of the study i. To establish how accessed mortgage funds from Housing Finance Bank affect real estate growth ii. To analyze the effects of mortgage default in Housing Finance Bank on real estate growth iii. To examine the effects of mortgage repayment period in Housing Finance Bank on real estate growth 1.4 Research questions i. What are the effects of the accessed mortgage funds from Housing Finance Bank on real estate growth? ii. What are the effects of mortgage default in Housing Finance Bank on real estate growth? iii. What are the effects of mortgage repayment period in Housing Finance Bank on real estate growth? 1.5 Scope of the study The study scope whirled on the content scope, geographical scope and the time scope. 9 1.5.1 Content scope The content scope remained mortgage financing and its effect on real estate growth. It is hoped that accessed mortgage funds contribute to real estate growth and in such circumstances housing crisis would have been curbed. This has however failed to materialize in Uganda and the need to examine the effects mortgage funds on real estate growth in Uganda calls for this research. 1.5.2 Geographical scope The geographical scope was Kampala District on Hosing Finance Bank. Kampala District was chosen because of its primacy in holding Capital City where most housing and construction activities have been taking place since 1964. Besides, Kampala District has most of the houses or real estate that have been financed by Housing Finance Bank. The researcher felt that in a geographical scope where there is Housing Finance Bank giving mortgage finance to developers to buy and build houses, a study of this kind is appropriate to the desired results. 1.5.3 Time scope The time scope was between 2008 and 2013. This is the period when real estate has experienced considerable growth amidst housing crisis. The researcher found a need to establish if growth has been a result from mortgage financing. Besides, what are the effects of mortgage financing on the real estate growth? Is the housing crisis in Kampala District a result of mortgage defaults or a result of the usability of the accessed mortgage finance? This study addressed such issues and the findings to the study have been presented in chapter four of this dissertation. . 1.6 Significance This study remains significant to academicians by contributing to the body of knowledge and broadening the scope in the areas of mortgage financing and real estate growth. While the study 10 remains a reference to future academicians, its empirical evidence in the field of mortgage financing and real estate growth stimulate further researchers into the field. It is hoped that increased number of studies about mortgage finance and estate growth remain the basis for the increased number of houses in Kampala District. This is because the study would stimulate more developers to access mortgage finance for such cause. Commercial Banks such as Housing Finance Bank and population at large find the information useful. Commercial Banks realize where they have gone wrong in giving mortgage finance under the case study of Housing Finance Bank while providing services to the developers in Uganda. The population and developers of real estate in particular also work to strike a balance and enhancing cordial business relations with the banks. In such circumstances, the researcher feels that the housing crisis would have been curbed. The study is important to the Government of Republic of Uganda and its policy makers. The Government of Republic of Uganda finds the study imperative since it reveals the operation of the mortgages using a case study of HFB. Recommendations delivered from HFB have significant impact in reference to development and building houses in Uganda. The policy makers and parliamentarians in particular find the study instrumental because it stands basis for the policy reformation of the mortgage finance industry. In turn, the researcher hopes that policy makers and the government come up with a policy on subsidizing for the real estate growth. The study increases the body of knowledge on challenges relating to mortgage financing and real estate growth in Kampala District. Besides, it fulfills its importance under which it was carried 11 out; fulfilling the requirements for the award of the degree of a master of business administration of Nkonzi University. 1.7 The conceptual framework The conceptual framework herewith presents the relationship of independent, dependent and intervening variables in the process of real estate growth. This is presented on figure 1.1 Fig. 1.1: The Conceptual Framework Real estate growth (DV) Acquiring land by a developer Rate of construction House purchase price increase Mortgage Financing (IV) Accessed funds Repayment period Default rate Government intervention (MV) Influencing banks to subsidize Provision of land to developers Use a good tenure system and cost Provision of infrastructure at moderate cost Land act and reforms Source: Evans and Mendenhall; 2002 The conceptual framework on figure 1.1 presents mortgage financing as an independent variable and how it affects real estate growth (dependent variable). Mortgage financing depends on the conditions for accessing mortgage, the repayment period and the consequences of the mortgage default. Real estate growth involves acquisition of land by developers, the rate of construction and rise in house purchase prices. 12 1.8 Conclusion All in all, the background to this study captures the history of mortgage financing in relation to real estate growth in Uganda. The objective of this study has been stated as to examine the relationship between mortgage financing and real estate growth, and expands while writing the dissertation. 13 CHAPTER TWO REVIEW OF LITERATURE 2.0 Introduction This chapter presents review of literature in relation to the topic of the study and specific objectives. It starts with the literature survey, theoretical framework and related literature basing on the objectives of the study and the different variables therein. 2.1 Literature survey In his study about the market report, Rugasira (2007) aimed at establishing the rate at which commercial banks have been at the frontline of development in Uganda. He noted that commercial banks get more money from developers of real estate and residential houses. This has been the most reason why there is low rate of real estate in Uganda. He asserts that there is little empirical evidence elucidating the behaviour of the banks to the development and growth of real estate. As a result, most of the houses that are constructed, 80 percent of the households lack toilets, 34 percent of the city’s housing stock are in need of upgrading or replacement, 36 percent are built of mud and bricks, 65 percent of the households in Kampala live in rental accommodation that has been poorly develop, with 71 percent occupying rooms as opposed to housing regulations. While the situation in Kampala attracts developers to develop and increase growth of real estate, few developers have been involved into the business. This calls for a study to explain the extent to which mortgage finance is beneficial to the development and growth of real estate. In a study that was carried out by Kibirige (2006) in Uganda on Mortgage Financing, the study aimed at establishing how mortgage finance has worked in Uganda. It was found that mortgage finance makes it possible for people to acquire affordable housing as they have the option to own 14 their homes and pay for them in affordable installments over time. It was also found that mortgage finance assist individuals to acquire land on which investors build affordable houses. These installments are however paid by individuals who have varied security and clear background with certain time of repayment period to the bank. It was for this reason that this study assessed the repayment period with the HFB. In yet another study by Kibirige (2006); he assessed the important factors considered in appraising viability of a mortgage application is the capability of the borrower to repay their mortgage. While the major focus was put on availability of mortgage finance to developers, the study does not elucidate the burden incurred by developers of real estate in the process. This study brings the risks and the burden incurred by developers in due course to the developing of the real estates. In the same study, he noted that mortgage finance sector creates employment directly and indirectly particularly to the construction industry and indirectly to other sectors but the effects of mortgages to the development of the real estate have little information in Uganda. Besides, the youths have been employed in the due course but how developers benefits in the process is still lacking. Further there is interest-rate risk to either party to a loan that the interest rate move against them and finally prepayment risk to the lender that the borrower can repay a loan (particularly a fixedrate loan) before the end of its term. In Uganda, real estate is also faced with the risk of unoccupancy (Agaba et al, 2009) and this study tries to explain such studies. 2.2 Theoretical Framework The study was guided by the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) of managing finance by Harry Markowitz in 1952 and the Structural Form theory by Pottow (2007). 15 2.2.1 The Modern Portfolio Theory of Management The Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is a theory of finance that attempts to optimize portfolio expected return for a given amount of portfolio risk, or equivalently to minimize risks for a given level of expected return; by carefully choosing the proportions of various assets. The theory explores how risk averse-investors construct portfolios in order to optimize market risk against expected returns. It quantifies the benefits of diversification; out of a universe of risky assets, an efficient of optimal portfolios can be constructed. According to the theory, each portfolio at the target offers a maximum expected return for a given level of risk. Developers of real estate therefore take risks by exchanging mortgage with real cash; they later invest into real estate not knowing what to be accrued. Notably, each portfolio on the efficient target offers a maximum possible expected return for a given level of risk. At this stage, developers hold one of the optimal portfolios on the efficient target and adjust their total market risk by leveraging that portfolio with positions in the risk-free asset. In a highly simplified world, the market portfolio sits on the efficient target, and all investors hold that portfolio, leveraged or deleveraged with positions in the risk-free asset. Modern Real Estate Portfolio Theory (MREPT) Mueller et al (1995) added on what Harry Markowitz (1952) had developed in lieu to real estate development and management. They explained why institutional developers should continue considering both private direct real estate investments and public forms of ownership in order to develop optimal portfolio for appropriate sub-categories of real estate assets. According to the theory, market depth, liquidity, asset quality, diversification and price fluctuation are inclusive in a strategic portfolio of management criteria of real estate. 16 On management, investment styles and return objectives of real estate portfolio management need to focus on higher return strategies: wealth creation, value added, income enhancement and incremental risk. The ability of Real Estate Investment Theory (REIT) to achieve these goals through direct real estate (active) portfolio management is determined by management skills and experience of the mangers of real estate. Due to real estate illiquidity and asymmetric information flows, portfolio diversification and optimization strategies are followed over multiple periods. Where it may take stock mangers weeks to adjust the portfolio to new optimal weights based on new return and risk information, it may take the real estate portfolio managers up to three years to adjust the portfolio, depending on size and market conditions. When developing large institutional real estate portfolios, one of the main objectives is to identify and target outperforming markets based on high risk-adjusted rates of return. Factors used in determining target markets are: real estate market opportunities, demographic attributes and market size. Due to the capital intensity, high transaction and information costs, most direct real estate portfolio managers underwrite properties on a buy and hold basis, extending the investment horizon. This allows the manger to focus on long-term cyclical labor market and demographic trends. For example, the emergence of the echo-boomer and retirement of the baby-boomers are expected to support apartment markets in the future. There are many factors contributing the supply of apartments: tax policy, capital availability, estimated demand by developers which need to be included in managerial issues. Statistically, significant variables determining new apartment supply are: mortgage interest rates, housing affordability index, employment change, vacancy rates, and taxes. 17 Real Estate Portfolio Development Under the management of real estate, the theory has that institutional real estate portfolio development need to be conducted in an integrated top-down/bottom-up approach. Top-down approach starts with national market and economic analysis, regional market and economic analysis, local market and economic analysis, and property level analysis; and then the process starts back up again. At the national level risks analyzed include: inflation, industrial production, risk premiums, term structures, business cycles and taxes. At the regional level, risks analyzed include unsystematic risks, employment based and growth, demographic trends, income level and growth and vacancy rates. At the local level, risks analyzed include; employment base and growth, demographic trends, income levels, vacancy rates, construction levels and costs, space utilization rates and taxes. At the property level, risks analyzed include physical characteristics, location and site characteristics, lease characteristics, property management expertise and financing. 2.2.2 Structural Form theory This theory was formulated by Pottow in 2007. It documents the evolution of mortgage finance in SSA (Sub- Saharan Africa) to determine what steps need to be taken to extend it to the middle-class, to enable them address their housing needs to the extent of their affordability. The theory reveals that there have been a number of problems when it came to the delivery of formal housing finance amongst most, if not all the countries. These problems are a record of macroeconomic instability, an adverse institutional, legal and regulatory environment which has resulted in inefficient, collateralization of housing assets, a poor record of public sector housing banks, building societies and other specialist housing 18 lenders in that most have been destroyed due to poor management and a lack of funds and limited availability of long-term funding sources to carry out intermediation that would spread the cost of a house over a relatively long period of time. Arising out of this dismal history is a move to revive and introduce mortgage lending into a number of countries. Moreover, as part of the move to straighten out financial markets, a number of consultants have been sent into SSA countries to begin documenting the specific problems of each country as well as to make recommendations on how to address them. Development agents, in particular, are also putting forth recommendations on what is required to ensure financial market development and capital market investment necessary to entice the private sector into the delivery of housing finance 2.3 Study literature This part presents the review of literature in relation to the topic and objectives of the study. It starts with how accessed mortgage finance affects real estate growth, effects of mortgage finance default and ends with the effects of mortgage repayment period on real estate growth. In lieu to the issues at hand, one needs to recall that despite the use of mortgage finance in Kampala District, there is still a housing crisis that needs serious attention. Although this situation is in Kampala District, the literature hereunder reveals that the situation is found in other areas of the globe. This study therefore seeks to establish the effects of mortgage financing on real estate growth with questions such as: why has the crisis continued amidst of mortgage financing? The literature presents that some institutional developers normally diverts from real estate growth to land broking by putting aside the main aim of working towards real estate growth. Has the change been a result of mortgage financing period or defaults incurred as pressure from the 19 banks increase in the due course? This study answers such issues in lieu to objectives of this study. Besides, in developed nations, the period for mortgage servicing or repayment period starts from 25 years and beyond yet it has never been so to developing nations (Ngumo, 2012. This study explains the effect which interest rates have on mortgage finance in reference to time lag and how this has been hindering the growth of estate using a case study of HFB in Kampala District. 2.3.1 Accessed mortgage finance and real estate growth Evans and Mendenhall (2002) observed that accessed mortgage finance is vital in solving housing crisis among developing countries and the challenge with such countries is how to make people own homes irrespective of their small earnings and estates developed for commercial purposes. They revealed that as a result of housing deficit, Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to encounter housing crisis if adequate approaches are not taken to address it. Effective mortgage financing is a key to addressing the housing deficit by constructing real estates as well as private houses among individuals. Hoek-Smit (2011) remarked that in Nigeria, accessed mortgage finance produce results in mass housing. In year 2000 for example, the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria gave a sum of 5.8 billion naira (now about 38m USD) to National Housing Fund which was established by Decree No. 3 of 1992 as a major means of mortgage lending for building of houses. Besides, Real Estate Developers Association of Nigeria (REDAN) was set to put in place Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to enhance the expansion of mass housing. The President of association, Chief Olabode Afolayan, disclosed that the SPV is money that would assist developers in massive buying of building materials and offer them subsidy. Haggai Savings and Loans Limited (Mortgage 20 Bankers) at Surulere - Lagos provides financial support to its customers while Susu Microfinance Bank Ltd gives financial support to Nigerians that are in need of it and Guaranty Nigerian Bank (Microfinance Obodoukwu) offers loans and encourages investment among the inhabitants of Obodoukwu community in housing estate. In actual terms, mortgage loans are loans used to finance house purchase that are secured with property so that in case the borrower fails to make the required repayments, the lender takes possession of the property under the terms of the loan agreement and has the right to sell it to recover the debt. Loans to finance the purchasing of houses are often long-term loans—typically 25 years in developed countries. The World Bank (2011) puts it clearly that mortgage loans can only be made when there are clear properties ownership rights. That those in developed countries are often available at a low margin over the cost of funds due to high security in terms of property rights. Individuals are more inclined and capable of investing in housing when they have proper title for their assets. Compared to other financial arrangements, the World Bank (2012) remarks that accessed mortgage finance helps in purchasing affordable houses and allows people to buy at a lower price. This ultimately stimulates housing market to the benefit of developers as well as existing home owners. This increases demand for houses and encourages savings. As a consequence, Boleat (2002) is of the view that a strong mortgage market widens financial system, efficient and well-functioning mortgage market. While the above assertion is significant to the developers, Jolaoso et al (2008) is of the view that any significant real estate growth requires tax and business planning; and for real estate developers there are not only in unusual situations and problems but unique opportunities to solve and minimize such matters. This according to Jiboye 21 (2009) accessed and used finance in the process of housing and construction is the most significant since it assist developers in different ways. He elucidated that not all the accessed mortgage however is beneficial to the cause of construction. Jiboye (2011) noted that while many developers access mortgage finance for construction purposes, others access mortgages in disguise to this plan but have other motives. The later fall victims to housing and construction in different ways. Mutero (2007) and Ibuoye (2009) noted that the process of accessing mortgage finance is conducted in multiple entities and involves separate partnerships for each property with unrelated investors or joint venture participants. Thus accessing long term credit facility has been a great challenge among developers. Kuroshi and Bala (2005) remarked that despite the existence of long term credit facility in the National Housing Trust Fund (NHTF), it operates on a depository arrangement whereby civil servants and self-employed persons contribute 2.5% of their monthly income into the Fund through their employers or directly to the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN) in order to access loan. Nonetheless; a few contributors have benefited from mortgage loan. Ozili (2009) observed that the NHTF is inadequate in meeting the housing needs of real estate developers and contributors. The conditions for accessing loans are not affordable to everybody. Private financial institutions have started packaging mortgage loan to prospective property developers but Kuroshi et al (2008) observed that private financial institutions charge very high interest rates on credit facility with very short repayment tenor. Nuhu (2009) remarked that the current global economy presents attractive opportunities to purchase properties from distressed sellers. Many potential buyers are scared away by the formidable risks that are presented by a possibly insolvent seller who may be stumbling toward 22 bankruptcy. Properties owned by distressed sellers usually come with a number of challenges that are not ordinarily found with better-situated sellers. Efforts to stay afloat are likely to have resulted in several layers of mortgages. There may be attachments or judgment liens resulting from lawsuits and tax liens resulting from unpaid taxes. Properties that have had recent construction may have incurred substantial mechanics’ liens imposed by contractors, subcontractors and suppliers. There may be below-market long-term leases or unfavorable supply or management contracts. In a study by Melzer (2005) in Kenya on accessing housing finance in the low income market, it was found that the Income Tax Act has for some time provided contributions to registered schemes designed and established to enable savings for purchase of residences can be deducted from gross income up to a maximum of Ksh 4,000/= per month (Ksh 48,000/= per annum). This has been enhanced by making interest earned on deposits of up to Ksh 3 million into such a scheme tax free. This avenue for savings and tax mitigation still remains relatively unattractive, however, since the enabling rules and regulations are difficult for banks to abide with. As a result one financial institution (Housing Finance) has launched a savings product for this purpose. On the other hand, interest incurred on personal mortgages is deductible from gross income before arriving at taxable income, subject to a limit of Ksh 12,500/= per month or Ksh 150,000/= per annum. In South Africa, Rust (2008) found that rising cost of capital has a dramatic impact on housing affordability and while property prices have been rising, have decreased the amount of loan that a low-income household is able to support. In 2004, a household earning R3500 would have been eligible for a R101 000 loan at 11 percent interest over 20 years; in June of 2008, a 23 household earning R3500 is only eligible for a loan of about R79 000, now at 16.5 percent interest. In 2004, a household earning R9000 per month would have been eligible for a R261 000 loan, well within the ‘affordable’ target market. Now, a household earning R9000 per month cannot find a house to buy at the R205 000 of mortgage finance that they can afford. In a study by Sacerdoti (2005) on accessed mortgage finance from the banks in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), it was found that there is a wide concern that bank spreads are too high in Africa. Analysis conducted in a number of studies indicated that the causes of the spreads in most SSA banking system are high operating costs, difficulties in obtaining and using collateral, and the absence of efficient judicial procedures to facilitate loan recovery. A detailed analysis of the main determinants of the spreads in Kenya across different categories of banks (state-owned, private domestic, and foreign) shows that spreads are a function of loan loss provisions and operating costs. Specifically, state-owned banks have the highest loan-loss provisions, and highest profit margins, which together account for almost two-third of the spread; the higher profit margin on lending reflects the higher write-offs on loans; their overall profitability is much lower, as indicated by the return on assets. In a study on housing finance in Sub-Saharan Africa and focusing on South Africa, Rust (2008) found that almost without exception, private sector developers as well as government officials and knowledgeable experts cite the unavailability of reasonably priced and well-located serviced land as the major constraint to the rapid expansion of housing for low and moderate income families. For a variety of reasons, including large holdings of land by government, control of large tracts by special private interests, poor environmental conditions and a woeful lack of essential infrastructure such as water and sewer, private developers are forced to look at un 24 serviced land on the outskirts of most urban areas for housing sites. Because local jurisdiction has been unable to provide for basic infrastructure, housing developers have to make provisions for it as part of their development plans. Yet their only means to recoup the cost is through the sale of the housing units. However, providing such necessary infrastructure can add at least 3040 percent to the sales cost of a unit, in effect pricing it well beyond the affordability capacity of most of the originally targeted population In Ghana, Walley (2010) reveals that the housing finance is adversely affected by the lack of land titles, and/or the slowness in issuing them. Thus, in Ghana most lenders have been deterred to providing housing finance to an inefficient and cumbersome foreclosure process; this has left the Home Financing Company as the sole provider of mortgage, as this company benefits from a more favorable legal framework. The authorities have reviewed this framework, in order to encourage more lending by other financial institutions. European Central Bank (2009) indicates that housing finance is of crucial importance to the Eurosystem as housing loans constitute the largest liability of households and account for a large proportion of bank lending. In the Euro Area, most countries have recorded significant increases in their mortgage debt-to-Gross Domestic Product ratios over the last decade and especially in more recent years. The average annual growth of housing loans in the Euro from 1999 to 2007 was just above 10 percent though the country patterns differ with loan growth even decreasing slightly in Germany in year 2007. The main underlying drivers of growth in housing debt on the supply side included the fierce competition of banks for market shares which resulted in more diversified credit instruments becoming available at lower cost, with longer maturities and on flexible terms (such as lower amortization requirements and higher loan-to-value ratios). 25 In yet another study on housing finance in African countries, Sacerdoti, (2005) found that with Macroeconomic stability returning to many countries in Africa, and with implemented or planned deregulation of the banking sector in several countries (Kenya, Ghana, Uganda, Nigeria, Tanzania and Zambia) the liquidity situation of many of the well-managed banking institutions in Africa has improved considerably. The availability of resources to invest in areas such as mortgage finance does not appear to be a major constraint to increased housing production, particularly among the large regional merchant banks such as Barclay’s Bank, Stanbic and Standard Charter. In a number of countries, there has also been a significant “shake out” of the banking system and increased oversight by government institutions, which has left remaining banks in a stronger financial position. The researcher observes that in most of the studies reviewed in this chapter, the scope of the study is limited to only one variable. For example, a study that explores the role of cost of capital on accessing mortgages tends to touch on other incentives in passing. The researcher intends to fill in this gap by comprehensively looking at two incentives including repayment period and cost of capital. The study carried out in Ghana by the International Monetary Fund (2012) on housing finance provides useful insights as to the effect of land registration systems on access to mortgage. However, the study does not have a developed theoretical framework where a reader can be able to follow the line of argument of the author. In addition, the methodology used in the study is vague. The researcher therefore recommends that a study be carried out outlining the theories used to argue the problem of the study and the methodology used to arrive to the conclusions. The study carried out by European Central Bank (2009) indicated that housing finance is of crucial importance to the Euro system as housing loans constitute the largest 26 liability of households and account for a large proportion of bank lending. The study is of much importance to the current study as it gives the reader a basis of why many people who wish to be home owners borrow from banks to do the same; this includes the longer loan maturation period and low cost of capital. 2.3.2 Repayment period and real estate growth Real estate growth is in most cases influenced by the rate at which developers or households borrow money for housing and the rate at which they repay outstanding housing loans. The less repayment period pronounced in housing credit suggests that new loan approvals indicate net principal repayments relative to outstanding. ECB (2009) presents that since 2004; net monthly principal repayments have averaged around ¾ percent of outstanding credit as compared to 1 percent in previous years among European nations. There have been a number of changes in characteristics of mortgages suggesting that the rate of scheduled principal repayments may be lower on average than previous case. For traditional variable-interest-rate loans, the rise in interest rates since 2002 have increased total mortgage payments but lowered the amount of the current scheduled principal repayment (Caldera and Andrews, 2011). MC-Donald and Thornton (2008) are of the view that households make extra repayments in addition to scheduled mortgage repayments. While penalty fees for early repayments of principal are often charged on fixed-rate loans and during honeymoon or introductory rate periods on mortgages, variable-rate mortgage typically allow borrowers to make excess repayments of principal without penalty. Although there are no precise data on the extent of excess principal repayments, information on households survey by Pittman (2008) suggests that around one-half borrowers make excess principal repayments and normally place ahead of schedule in their 27 mortgage repayments. While presenting a report on mortgage, Rugasira (2007) revealed that banks indicate that roughly one quarter of the borrowers are more than a year ahead on their mortgage repayments and around one-half are more than one month ahead. This means that banks in Uganda benefit from the developers a head of building and construction of the real estates and it could be a scare craw leading a few household accessing mortgages in Kampala District. Tuma (2006) noted that excess repayments on principle reflect deliberate efforts by developers or households to pay their mortgages more quickly than the time required. This is likely to increase the interest rates’ rise since the higher cost of borrowing encourages borrowers to repay loans more quickly if they are able. However, it should be noted that higher interest costs also reduce the capacity of some borrowers to make excess principal repayments. Borrowers’ decisions to make excess principal repayments are also affected by other factors other than interest rates, including income growth and expectations of economic security. Expectations of returns on other assets could also be relevant in such situations since borrowers can be attracted to invest money in other strongly performing assets rather than making additional loan repayments. This to a great extent determines affordability alongside the maturity. A study from Uganda revealed that Interest rates range between 16% - 23% depending on the purpose of the mortgage (Kibirige, 2006). Usually owner occupier mortgages take the lower rate and it increases as one tends towards commercial mortgages. These rates are generally high and are attributable to the lack of long term local funding. Similar study in Egypt, on mortgage lending rate revealed that the mortgage rate equals to 14 percent with a margin of 4% over the prime lending rate (Hassanein and Barkouky, 2008). This leaves mortgage companies with only 1.5% which needs to be further decreased when attempting to securitize the mortgage loan and provide other guarantees. 28 According to UN-Habitat (2005), roughly one billion people, or one-third of the world’s urban population, live in slums. And a well-functioning housing market influences not only shelter concerns. At a basic level, country’s housing sector can improve public health (by reducing the likelihood of outbreaks of disease), stimulate economic growth (through its own job creation, but also as workplaces for home-based entrepreneurs), and have important social consequences (by influencing crime reduction and citizenship).The best housing sectors should enable the adequate provision of shelter across all segments of the population. While there are many aspects to the housing market (discussed below), it can be argued that the provision of housing finance is a binding constraint that must be addressed before the market can sustainably provide adequate housing. Even in the best of environments, housing is a major purchase — average home prices typically ranging from 4 times annual income in developed countries to 8 times annual income in emerging economies - that is affordable only when payments can be spread out over time. 2.3.3 Mortgage default and real estate growth Research has found that default is current loan-to-market value ratio of each property. As prices fall, the probability of defaults rises. Unfortunately, the cost to lenders of default also rises as prices fall. While default probabilities and default losses rise with falling prices, default losses rise non-linearly and faster than the decline in house prices. Such dynamics means that the mortgage holder would ideally want a non-linear or dynamic and hedge; Quigley, Robert and Yongheng (1993) are of the view that there is no shortage of evidence on importance of home prices and equity on the default decision. In 29 empirical studies done over a thirty year period, Quigley, Robert and Yongheng (1993) concluded that home equity or the related measure of loan to value ratio, influence default decision. There is a consensus in most recent default studies that 29 the correct measure of a borrower’s net equity is the contemporaneous market value of property less the contemporaneous market value of the loan, a measure that also incorporates borrower expectations. This negatively or positively affects real estate growth depending on the nature of the borrower or the investment where the money has been invested. Jackson and Kasserman (1980) reach the same conclusion there exists a significant literature examining causes of default and their empirical effects on the growth of estates. Empirical evidence shows that it is the house versus the mortgage value, rather than such personal characteristics as the homeowners’ liquidity position or developers that explain default which in short or long run affects the growth of estates. In a study by Jackson and Kasserman (ibid) in which a discrete proportional hazard model was used, it was found that default of mortgage finance by developers or homeowners do not only affect the banks but equally so the developers. Results also show that the probability of negative equity ratio is the main time varying covariate influencing mortgage holders’ default decision. The history of the mortgage industry provides dramatic evidence that default risk is related in a non-linear way to housing prices. Losses from default depend not only on the incidence of defaults, but on the severity of deficiencies after collateral liquidation. Unfortunately, there are virtually no data on aggregate claims over time which is available on a non-proprietary basis. But this is an area where history is well known. Most studies point to the increase in credit growth as one of the main determinants of the run up in real estate prices. Koh et al (2005) using an optionbased model of financial intermediaries found that if the value of the underlying asset falls below the outstanding amount of a loan, the borrower may simply default on the loan putting the asset into the hands of the financial institution. This may cause the financial intermediaries to hold excessive amounts of unwanted real estate which in a bear market can only be disposed at prices which were 30 dramatically lower than the amount it was originally collateralized for. The banking system is the dominant financial system in most East Asian countries where the equity and bond markets are fairly underdeveloped (Collyns and Senhadji, 2003). Another possible determinant of real estate price dynamics is real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which captures both the aggregate level of income per capita and population size (Ho and Cuervo, 1999). An increase in real GDP would increase the income of the population in the economy resulting in increased demand for real estate through higher prices of primary property and higher rentals. Real interest rate is also another possible important determinant. A reduction in real interest rates can increase the prices of real estate as it reduces the cost of borrowing. Reflecting these developments, outstanding mortgages as a share of GDP has risen dramatically, particularly among smaller European countries (IMF, 2003). In quite a few European Union (EU) countries the (negative) correlations between real housing prices and real interest rates have been especially high 2.4 Conclusion It can be deduced that real estate needs appropriate amount of money to be built or developed despite challenges therein. 31 CHAPTER THREE METHODOLOGY 3.0 Introduction This chapter covers research design, study population, sample size and selection, sampling techniques, methods of data collection, data management and analysis, reliability and validity, ethical considerations, assumptions and limitations. 3.1 Research design A cross sectional survey research design was used for this study in Kampala District. Cross sectional survey is a type of observational study that involves the analysis of data collection from a population or its subset to represent the whole population such that the researcher can use the results from the subset to reach inferences to the general population. Housing Finance Bank’ employees were majorly a population that normally gives mortgage finance from the banks and the researcher hoped that would give accurate information in relation to the topical objectives. A cross sectional survey research design was used because it allows the use of qualitative and quantitative methods of research which the researcher thought would complement one another during the study to reach at the inferences. Besides, cross sectional studies normally take a short period of time (Amin, 2005) and the researcher hopes to carry out this research within a few months. 3.2 Study area and population The study was carried out onto the Housing Finance Limited in Kampala District. The District borders with Wakiso District to the South, South and the North and by Kira Town-Council to the East. It has been chosen because it has different developers that normally use mortgage finance 32 in buying and constructing houses. The population of study from where the sample size was selected was 150 employees of Housing Finance Bank (HFB). 3.3 The sample size and selection A sample size of 80 officials from the HFB was interviewed and this was determined using Cochram (1963) formula below; n= Whereby = = α= the standard value from the normal distribution curve level of significance and for research purposes 0.05 (95% confidence interval) p = the proportion of respondents was meant to respond and give true information, which is assumed to be equal to 0.5, q = 1 – p e = the degree of precision/ the risk that was taken by the researcher is 0.11 was used So, n was determined as; = 1.96 and n = = 79.372 80 respondents. 3.4 Sampling techniques The study embraced random and purposive sampling techniques. Purposive sampling technique has been used to select HFB from different banks within Kampala and the researcher hoped that it would give needed information. Purposive sampling was used alongside random sampling technique. Amin (2005) noted that purposive sampling technique is a method of research that directs researcher to reach respondents with rich information in relation to the study. This is the 33 most reason that led the researcher to opt for the purposive sampling technique with the hope to reach respondents with rich knowledge as presented in table 3.1 of this dissertation. Table 3.1: Illustration of the sample size and distribution Category Population Sample size Sampling technique Bank administrators 6 6 Purposive sampling technique Credit officers 10 10 Purposive sampling technique Bank accountants and other 134 49 Random sampling Loans officers 23 15 Random sampling Total 173 80 staff Source: Research study, 2015 3.5 Sources of Data Collection Secondary and primary sources of data collection were used during the study. Suffice, secondary sources of data collection were used while developing the proposal and writing this dissertation. They included text-books, Journals and News Papers among others. Primary sources of data collection contained information extracted from the field. This was done using Questionnaires. 3.6 Methods of data collection A survey method was used with the help of questionnaires. 3.7 Data collection instruments 3.7.1 Self – Administered Questionnaires Data was collected using Self-Administered Questionnaires . Self-administered questionnaires are sets of questions usually sent by mail to the respondents albeit they at times delivered by hands. Normally, they are delivered to various places where 34 respondents live or work from. The researcher delivered self-administered questionnaires to the offices of HFB. The self-administered questionnaires were organized following the Likert (1932) and Thurstone scales (Thurstone and Clave, 1929). 3.8 Reliability and Validity Questionnaires do not emerge fully-fledged; they have to be created or adapted, fashioned and developed to maturity after many abortive tests flights. In fact, every aspect of a survey has to be tried out beforehand to make sure that it works as intended (Dillman, 1987). The questionnaires were pre-tested by two different groups, namely, two researchers and two Real estate developers to ensure that the questions cover the full range of the issues being studied. A 4-point scale of relevant, quite relevant, somewhat relevant, and not relevant was used to assess the questionnaires hence the questionnaires were tested for content validity. Face validity was established by ensuring that every question or item on the scale has a logical link with the objectives of the study. On the other hand, reliability is defined as the extent to which a questionnaire, test, observation or any measurement procedure produces the same results on repeated trials. In short, it is the stability or consistency of scores over time or across raters provided by an instrument. Reliability was tested using pre-testing data sets and Cronbach’s reliability. The reliability of the variables was assessed using Cronbach’s alpha (1951). 3.9 Data Management and Analysis Although qualitative and quantitative methods of data analysis were used, quantitative analysis was used much more than qualitative. Qualitatively, descriptive analysis was used to analyze the data alongside narrations and interpretation of the findings. After coding and entering the data in 35 the spreadsheet, analysis was performed using Computer programme – Scientific Program for Social Scientists (SPSS). Analysis was based on different objectives in reference to different methods as presented herewith. For the objective one which was meant to examine how accessed mortgage finance affects real estate growth, analysis was done using the Pearson correlation and cross tabulation; the second objective that states to analyze the effects of mortgage default on real estate growth in Kampala District and the third which states that to examine the effects of mortgage repayment period on real estate growth; these were analyzed using the chi-square analysis. 3.10 Ethical Considerations The Researcher maintained respect for persons. The researcher ensured that the participants received full disclosure of the nature of the study, benefits and alternatives, with an extended opportunity to ask questions hence an informed consent. The researcher guarded against misconduct in research. The researcher did not involve himself in fabrication, falsification or plagiarism in proposing, performing, reviewing the research or in reporting research results. The Researcher gave forethought to the maximization of benefits and the reduction of risks that could have occurred from the research. The researcher avoided conflict of interest by not offering himself as a research subject. 3.12 Conclusion This section has reviewed the research design; the procedure of carrying out the research has been captured. The data collection methods of questionnaire and observation have been proposed. The data analysis was done by SPSS. Face and content validity and reliability of the questionnaires were tested. Ethical considerations were given top priority. The researcher 36 maintained respect for persons, guard against falsification and offering himself as a subject in the research. 37 CHAPTER FOUR PRESENTATION OF DATA, INTERPRETATION AND ANALYSIS OF THE FINDINGS 4.0 Introduction This chapter presents the findings from the study. It starts with the bio-data or the characteristics of the respondents; it then gives how accessed mortgage funds from HFB affect the growth of real estate, effects of the mortgage default in HFB on real estate and ends with the effects of mortgage repayment period in Housing Finance Bank on real estate growth. 4.1 Bio-data of the respondents The bio-data of the respondents composed of age of respondents, levels of education, sex or gender as presented hereunder. One of the bio-data of respondents was gender as presented in figure 4.1.1 Bar-chart 4.1.1: Gender of respondents 70 60 66 50 40 34 30 Percent 20 10 0 Males Females Gender Source: Primary data, 2015 The information presented on figure 4.1.1 shows that majority of respondents were males as justified by 66 percent while females were 34 percent. This means that majority of the respondents that were interviewed in the HFB were males as compared to females. While the 38 researcher was able to conclude that most of the staff in HFB that are employed in mortgage finance are males, he was informed that departments of loans and mortgage finance are dominated by males. Among other reasons that the study found for this was that men are too quick and responsive in loans and mortgage issues in relation to females. Age was another biodata of respondents as presented on figure 4.1.2 Bar-chart 4.1.2: Age of respondents 60 56 50 40 30 Percent 20 10 20 14 10 0 20-30 years 41 - 50 years 31 - 40 years Over 50 y ears Age range of respondents Source: Primary data, 2015 As presented on bar chart 4.1.2, majority of the respondents were in the age range of 31 – 40 years as justified by 56 percent. 20 percent were in the age range of 41 – 50 years; they were followed by 14 percent within over 50 years and the last having 20 – 30 years with 10 percent. According to the bar chart 4.1.2, majority of respondents were mature enough to elucidate the extent to which mortgage financing affect or influence the growth of real estate. He was convinced that respondents have enough experience with the bank issues and therefore they were able to explain the content of the subject matter in reference to the study. Education was yet another feature of the respondents as presented in the bar chart 4.1.3 39 Bar-chart 4.1.3: Levels of educ ation 70 60 58 50 40 30 24 Percent 20 10 0 15 Diploma Post graduate Degrees Others Levels of educ ation Source: Primary data, 2015 Respondents with degree level of education were found to be more in comparison to the rest of the respondents. This constitutes 58 percent as presented on the bar chart. The researcher also interviewed respondents with post graduate level of education and these constituted 24 percent. Those with diploma were 15 percent and others had 3 (three) percent. From the information presented on the bar chart 4.1.3, the researcher realized that these were highly educated individuals with knowledge in reference to the research questions and objectives of the study. The study started with an inquiry about types of the real estates that are normally developed by the mortgages and those that developers seek finance for; and the findings are presented on table 4.1.1 of this dissertation. 40 Table 4.1.1: Types of real estates developed by mortgage finance Frequency 2 13 54 8 3 80 Retail - space Office - space Residential space Manufacturing s pace Industrial s pace Total Percent 2.5 16.3 67.5 10.0 3.8 100.0 Valid Percent 2.5 16.3 67.5 10.0 3.8 100.0 Cumulative Percent 2.5 18.8 86.3 96.3 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 Accordingly, 67.5 percent of the respondents supported residential space; 16.3 percent supported office-space, 10.0 percent supported manufacturing space, 3.8 percent supported industrial space and 2.5 percent supported retail space. This means that mortgage finance is normally acquired for residential space in which real estate falls. Responses were also received regarding repayment period for mortgage finance that is normally given to the people and the findings are presented in table 4.1.2. Table 4.1.2: Repayment period for mortgage Less than 5 years 5 - 10 years 11 - 15 years 16 - 25 years Over 25 years Total Frequency 5 38 31 3 3 80 Percent 6.3 47.5 38.8 3.8 3.8 100.0 Valid Percent 6.3 47.5 38.8 3.8 3.8 100.0 Cumulative Percent 6.3 53.8 92.5 96.3 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 As presented in table 4.1.2, 47.5 of the respondents supported the view that mortgages are given ranging from 5-10 years. They are followed with 38.8 percent of the respondents who supported 11 – 15 years. 6.3 percent supported less than 5 years while 3.8 percent supported 16 – 25 years and over 25 years respectively. The interpretation delivered from the above table was that mortgages are given for a short period. The researcher found that the longer the period of 41 repayment, the smaller the risks incurred onto the developers and the more the bank made profits. Nonetheless, it was found that there was positive attitude towards mortgages as presented on the bar chart 4.1.4 Bar-chart 4.1.4: Attitude of developers to mortgage 80 75 60 40 Percent 20 20 0 Positive Indefferent 5 Negative Attitudes Source: Primary data, 2015 In accordance to the bar chart 4.1.4, 75 percent of the respondents had positive attitude towards mortgage financing in relation to real estates, 20 percent had indifferent attitude while 5 percent had negative attitude. However, the 75 percent is big enough to infer that in Uganda, mortgage financing has a correlation to real estate growth. This assertion from the study is also supported by yet quantitative findings as presented on table 4.1.3 Table 4.1.3: Mortgage finance as a best approach to fund real estate Yes No Total Frequency 70 10 80 Percent 87.5 12.5 100.0 Valid Percent 87.5 12.5 100.0 Cumulative Percent 87.5 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 According to table 4.1.3, the study revealed that 87.5 percent of the respondents supported the fact that mortgage finance is the best approach to fund real estate development while 12.5 percent objected to the view. This remained the basis for this study to support the role of 42 mortgage finance in real estate development. The researcher further asked those who supported the view as to why they think mortgage finance is the best approach to finance real estate and it was stated that mortgages have low interest rates, mortgages have long repayment period for the developers, mortgages help developers without current cash, mortgages are given on the basis of assurance that the developer or any client will pay or otherwise the security in advance stands the risk to be sold to regain the money from the bank. It was also found that the bank attracts its employees into real estate development and the findings are presented in table 4.1.4. Table 4.1.4: Whether the Bank attracts its employees to real estate development Yes No Total Frequency 72 8 80 Percent 90.0 10.0 100.0 Valid Percent 90.0 10.0 100.0 Cumulative Percent 90.0 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 From the table 4.1.4, the study findings show that 90 percent of the respondents supported the view that HFB attracts employees to real estate development while 10.0 percent never supported the view. 4.2 Research objectives 4.2.1 Accessed mortgage funds and real estate growth One of the objectives of this study was to establish how accessed mortgage funds from Housing Finance Bank affect real estate growth. In the first instance, the researcher found that whoever has security and the capacity to repay according to what is normally assessed by the bank, must get the mortgage funding for his development. The researcher went on to establish the 43 importance of mortgage fund in reference to areas of development or getting a site to develop and the findings are presented in table 4.2.1 of this dissertation. Table 4.2.1: Accessed mortgage finance helps in getting new construction site Strongly dis agree Disagree Not sure Agree Strongly agree Total Frequency 1 3 19 51 6 80 Percent 1.3 3.8 23.8 63.8 7.5 100.0 Valid Percent 1.3 3.8 23.8 63.8 7.5 100.0 Cumulative Percent 1.3 5.0 28.8 92.5 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 The information presented in table 4.2.1 shows that 63.8 percent of the respondents agreed that accessed mortgage finance helps in getting new construction site. 23.8 percent was not sure, 7.5 percent strongly agreed, 3.8 disagreed and 1.3 percent strongly disagreed. This made the researcher to conclude that some developers get mortgages to acquire sites in which development of real estates is meant to take place. From the interviews with some of the bank administrators, the researcher established that some of the real estate developers start from buying land and later develop it into residential houses. It was also found that accessed mortgage help in paying of workers as presented in table 4.2.2 of this dissertation. Table 4.2.2: Accessed mortgage finance helps to pay workers Strongly dis agree Disagree Not sure Agree Strongly agree Total Frequency 1 1 27 43 8 80 Percent 1.3 1.3 33.8 53.8 10.0 100.0 Valid Percent 1.3 1.3 33.8 53.8 10.0 100.0 Cumulative Percent 1.3 2.5 36.3 90.0 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 According to table 4.2.2, 53.8 percent of the respondents agreed that accessed mortgage funds help the developers to pay workers. 33.8 percent were not sure, 10.0 percent strongly agreed, 1.3 44 percent strongly disagreed and disagreed respectively. Despite the 33.8 percent of the respondents who were not sure, the researcher found that the 53.8 percent was enough to justify that some of developers pay their workers using the mortgage funds. The researcher further established that the payment of the workers is part of development since such workers normally work to develop real estate. On whether the accessed mortgage finance increase morale among developers, the findings are presented in table 4.2.3 Table 4.2.3: Accessed mortgage finance increase morale among developers Strongly dis agree Disagree Not sure Agree Strongly agree Total Frequency 1 2 28 46 3 80 Percent 1.3 2.5 35.0 57.5 3.8 100.0 Valid Percent 1.3 2.5 35.0 57.5 3.8 100.0 Cumulative Percent 1.3 3.8 38.8 96.3 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 57.5 percent of the respondents agreed that mortgage finance increase morale among the developers while 35.0 percent of the respondents were not sure. 3.8 percent strongly agreed, 2.5 disagreed while 1.3 strongly disagreed. The interpretation is that mortgage finance increases morale among the developers into real estate. The study went further to establish if the accessed mortgage finance increase developers assets and the overwhelming majority were in congruent with this statement as presented in table 4.2.4 of this dissertation. Table 4.2.4: Accessed mortgage finance increase developers' assets Strongly dis agree Disagree Not sure Agree Strongly agree Total Frequency 1 2 6 47 24 80 Percent 1.3 2.5 7.5 58.8 30.0 100.0 Valid Percent 1.3 2.5 7.5 58.8 30.0 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 45 Cumulative Percent 1.3 3.8 11.3 70.0 100.0 As presented in table 4.2.4, 58.8 percent of the respondents agreed with the view that accessed mortgage finance increase developers’ assets and 30.0 percent strongly agreed. On the other hand, 7.5 percent were not sure, 2.5 percent disagreed and 1.3 percent strongly disagreed. This made the researcher to infer that accessed mortgage finance increase developers’ assets because the 88.8 percent of the respondents was big enough to reach to that conclusion. On whether accessed mortgage finance increase on real estate growth, the findings are presented on table 4.2.5 Table 4.2.5: Accessed mortgage finance increase on real estate growth Dis agree Not sure Agree Strongly agree Total Frequency 1 4 42 33 80 Percent 1.3 5.0 52.5 41.3 100.0 Valid Percent 1.3 5.0 52.5 41.3 100.0 Cumulative Percent 1.3 6.3 58.8 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 As presented in table 4.2.5, it is presented that mortgage finance increase the growth of real estate. Accordingly then, 41.3 percent of the respondents strongly agreed with the statement while 52.5 agreed. The interpretation is that 93.8 percent of the respondents were big enough to conclude that there is a relationship between mortgage finance and real estate growth. On the other hand however, 5.0 percent of the respondents responded with not sure while 1.3 percent disagreed. Lastly, the researcher inquired if accessed mortgage finance attracts investors into real estate development and the findings are presented in table 4.2.6 46 Table 4.2.6: Accessed mortgage attracts investors into real estate development Strongly dis agree Disagree Not sure Agree Strongly agree Total Frequency 3 5 4 41 27 80 Percent 3.8 6.3 5.0 51.3 33.8 100.0 Valid Percent 3.8 6.3 5.0 51.3 33.8 100.0 Cumulative Percent 3.8 10.0 15.0 66.3 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 51.3 percent of the respondents agreed with the statement that accessed mortgage finance attracts investors into real estate development. 33.8 percent strongly agreed while 5.0 percent were not sure. 6.3 percent disagreed and 3.8 strongly disagreed to the statement. According to the first objective that led this study to be organized, the researcher was meant to establish how accessed mortgage funds from HFB affect real estate growth. Using the findings as presented above, it was found that it is mortgage finance that attracts investors into real estate growth basing on the interest rate. This was supported by the respondents that the higher the interest rate the fewer the developers seeking mortgage finance and the lower the interest rate, the higher the developers seeking for the mortgage finance. 4.2.2 Mortgage finance default The second objective of the study was to analyze the effects of mortgage default in Housing Finance Bank on real estate growth. There was evidence that default of mortgage finance does not only affect HFB but also the growth of real estate as presented in table 4.3.1 47 Table 4.3.1: Mortgage finance default hinders daily activities of HFB Strongly dis agree Disagree Not sure Agree Strongly agree Total Frequency 7 12 9 44 8 80 Percent 8.8 15.0 11.3 55.0 10.0 100.0 Valid Percent 8.8 15.0 11.3 55.0 10.0 100.0 Cumulative Percent 8.8 23.8 35.0 90.0 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 From table 4.3.1, mortgage finance default hinders daily activities of the bank. 55.0 percent of the respondents agreed and 10.0 percent of the respondents strongly agreed. On the other hand, 11.3 percent of the respondents were not sure, 15.0 percent disagreed while 8.8 percent strongly disagreed. Despite responses in disagreement, the percentage and the frequency in agreement reveal that default of the bank mortgages hinder the daily activities of the bank. It was noted that when the activities of the bank are affected, it means that those seeking for mortgages are reduced and in long run reduced mortgages to the public is witnessed. On whether the default of the bank mortgage creates employee turnover, the quantitative findings are presented in table 4.3.2 Table 4.3.2: Mortgage finance default creates employee turnover Strongly dis agree Disagree Not sure Agree Strongly agree Total Frequency 10 23 24 17 6 80 Percent 12.5 28.8 30.0 21.3 7.5 100.0 Valid Percent 12.5 28.8 30.0 21.3 7.5 100.0 Cumulative Percent 12.5 41.3 71.3 92.5 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 The information presented in table 4.3.2 shows that there are other factors responsible for the turnover among employees of HFB rather than the mortgage finance default. Accordingly, 30.0 48 percent of the respondents were not sure with the statement, 28.8 percent disagreed, 21.3 percent agreed, 12.5 strongly disagreed and 7.5 percent of the respondents strongly agreed. It was from this perspective that the inference was reached that turnover has got other factors than the mortgage default. Respondents mentioned issues regarding intrinsic and extrinsic motivators as most factors leading to turnover. In such circumstances, workers remain in the system of the bank working to gain the money of the bank from the developers. However, it was found that the default hinders the growth of real estate despite the continued work by the employees of the bank. This is presented in table 4.3.3 of this dissertation. Table 4.3.3: Mortgage finance default hinders growth of real estate Strongly dis agree Disagree Not sure Agree Strongly agree Total Frequency 3 9 21 41 6 80 Percent 3.8 11.3 26.3 51.3 7.5 100.0 Valid Percent 3.8 11.3 26.3 51.3 7.5 100.0 Cumulative Percent 3.8 15.0 41.3 92.5 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2013 The findings in table 4.3.3 reveal that mortgage finance default hinders growth of real estate. This is justified with the fact that 51.3 percent of the respondents agreed with the statement while 7.5 percent strongly agreed. On the other hand, 26.3 percent was not sure, 11.3 percent disagreed and 3.8 percent strongly disagreed. Despite respondents who were not sure and those that disagreed, the researcher found that mortgage default hinders the growth of real estate. According to credit officers, it was stressed that the default creates unease among the developers of real estates to the extent that they only work to pay; at times, they sell their assets before the intervention of the bank and the findings to this assentation are presented in table 4.3.4 of this dissertation. 49 Ta ble 4.3. 4: Mortgage finance de fault compels the Bank to sell assets of de velopers Frequency St rongly disagree 1 Disagree 1 Not sure 7 Agree 36 St rongly agree 35 Total 80 Percent 1.3 1.3 8.8 45.0 43.8 100.0 Valid Perc ent 1.3 1.3 8.8 45.0 43.8 100.0 Cumulative Percent 1.3 2.5 11.3 56.3 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 As presented in table 4.3.4, mortgage finance compels the bank to sell assets of the developers. This is justified by 45.0 percent of the respondents who agreed with the statement and 43.8 percent that strongly agreed. 8.8 percent were not sure while 1.3 percent disagreed and strongly disagreed respectively. While in face to face interviews with the bank officials, it was emphasized that it is not the wish of the bank to sell the assets of developers; rather at times it is the only option to recover the bank funds. It was confessed that despite of the default, the administrative work of the bank cannot be jeopardized, and the quantitative results are presented in table 4.3.5 Table 4.3.5: Mortgage finance default hinders administrative work of HFB Strongly dis agree Disagree Not sure Agree Strongly agree Total Frequency 3 30 32 11 4 80 Percent 3.8 37.5 40.0 13.8 5.0 100.0 Valid Percent 3.8 37.5 40.0 13.8 5.0 100.0 Cumulative Percent 3.8 41.3 81.3 95.0 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 Table 4.3.5 reveals that 40.0 percent of the respondents were not sure if the mortgage default hinders the administrative work of HFB. 37.5 percent disagreed 13.8 percent agreed and 5.0 percent strongly agreed but 3.8 percent strongly disagreed. This means that mortgage finance 50 default has less effect on the administrative work within the HFB. Like turnover findings in connection with the bank, the findings found that there is little effect that can be caused by the mortgage default on the administrative work of the bank. Some administrators noted that there are banks that function well without component of mortgage finance and such banks have been successful. However, it was mentioned that mortgage default affects the developers’ efforts into mortgage finance as presented in table 4.3.6. Ta ble 4.3. 6: Mortgage fina nce de fault reduce s the finance re sources of the de velopers Frequency St rongly disagree 1 Dis agree 1 Not sure 7 Agree 53 St rongly agree 18 Total 80 Percent 1.3 1.3 8.8 66.3 22.5 100.0 Valid Percent 1.3 1.3 8.8 66.3 22.5 100.0 Cumulative Percent 1.3 2.5 11.3 77.5 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 Mortgage finance default reduces the financial resources of the developers and this was supported by 66.3 percent of the respondents who strongly agreed and 22.5 percent who strongly agreed. Despite 8.8 percent of the respondents who were not sure and 1.3 percent who strongly disagreed and disagreed respectively, the effects of default on the financial resource of the developers are dire as presented in the preceding table 4.3.6. On whether the mortgage default reduces the development of the real estate, the findings are presented on table 4.3.7 51 Table 4.3.7: Mortgage finance default reduces the development of real estate Strongly dis agree Disagree Not sure Agree Strongly agree Total Frequency 1 7 24 46 2 80 Percent 1.3 8.8 30.0 57.5 2.5 100.0 Valid Percent 1.3 8.8 30.0 57.5 2.5 100.0 Cumulative Percent 1.3 10.0 40.0 97.5 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 Table 4.3.7 reveals that mortgage finance default reduces the development of the real estate. This is supported by 57.5 percent of the respondents who agreed with the statement and 2.5 percent that strongly agreed. On the other hand however, 30.0 percent of the respondents were not sure, 8.8 percent disagreed and 1.3 strongly disagreed. Therefore, Mortgage default reduces the development of real estate. The study went further to establish the nature or how developers feel during the defaulting period and it was established that developers found themselves stressed during the period; quantitative results are presented in table 4.3.8 Table 4.3.8: Mortgage finance default stresses the developers Strongly dis agree Disagree Not sure Agree Strongly agree Total Frequency 1 5 6 48 20 80 Percent 1.3 6.3 7.5 60.0 25.0 100.0 Valid Percent 1.3 6.3 7.5 60.0 25.0 100.0 Cumulative Percent 1.3 7.5 15.0 75.0 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 The findings in the table 4.3.8 reveal that defaulting stresses developers and this is justified with 60.0 percent who agreed and 25.0 percent of the respondents who strongly agreed. They noted that the period involves long thinking among the developers about the bank’s action to sell their assets that had been used as security in the bank. At times developers borrow from other banks in 52 order to pay the mortgage finance and in the process accumulate the cycle of loans. On the other hand however, 7.5 percent of the respondents were not sure, 6.3 percent disagreed and 1.3 percent of them strongly disagreed. Despite of their disagreement, they never gave reasons to justify this. 4.2.3 Repayment period and growth of real estate The last objective was to examine the effects of mortgage repayment period in Housing Finance Bank on real estate growth. This according to the respondents is an important component in the due course. Repayment period was defined as a period in which the mortgage finance given to the developers is returned to the bank. It was noted that repayment period does not only apply to mortgage finance but also to other types of loans in the bank. The researcher therefore established if the repayment period creates ample time to accumulate profits for the developers and quantitative findings are presented in table 4.4.1 Table 4.4.1: Re paym ent pe riod cre ate s am ple tim e to accumulate profits am ong de velopers Frequency St rongly disagree Dis agree Not sure Agree St rongly agree Total 1 5 20 42 12 80 Percent 1.3 6.3 25.0 52.5 15.0 100.0 Valid Percent 1.3 6.3 25.0 52.5 15.0 100.0 Cumulative Percent 1.3 7.5 32.5 85.0 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 According to table 4.4.1, 52.5 percent of the respondents supported the view that repayment period creates ample time to accumulate profits among developers, 25.0 percent were not sure and 15.0 percent strongly agreed. On the other hand, 6.3 percent of the respondents disagreed and 1.3 strongly disagreed. It therefore remained important that repayment period is instrumental 53 to development among developers. Such repayment period the bank normally give to developers has been discussed under table 4.1.2 of this dissertation. It was also found that a repayment period promotes activities for the growth of real estate and quantitative findings are presented in table 4.4.2 of this dissertation. Table 4.4.2: Repayment period promotes activities for the growth of real estate Strongly dis agree Disagree Not sure Agree Strongly agree Total Frequency 1 1 4 50 24 80 Percent 1.3 1.3 5.0 62.5 30.0 100.0 Valid Percent 1.3 1.3 5.0 62.5 30.0 100.0 Cumulative Percent 1.3 2.5 7.5 70.0 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 According to table 4.4.2, 62.5 percent of the respondents agreed with the view that repayment period promote the activities for the growth of the real estate and 30.0 percent strongly agreed. Although 5.0 percent was not sure, 1.3 percent disagreed and strongly disagreed respectively, the researcher was convinced that 92.5 percent in agreement was big enough to justify the extent of different activities that normally take place during repayment period. Among others, respondents noted that during the period, developers construct residential or other estates, pay their workers and above all collect rental from the tenants as they repay. It was also noted that repayment period allows planning for the real estates among the developers and this is presented in table 4.4.3 54 Table 4.4.3: Repayment period allows planning for real estates Strongly dis agree Disagree Not sure Agree Strongly agree Total Frequency 2 5 18 51 4 80 Percent 2.5 6.3 22.5 63.8 5.0 100.0 Valid Percent 2.5 6.3 22.5 63.8 5.0 100.0 Cumulative Percent 2.5 8.8 31.3 95.0 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 According to the information in table 4.4.3, 63.8 percent of the respondents agreed with the statement that repayment period allows planning for the real estate and 5.0 percent strongly agreed. 22.5 percent of the respondents were not sure, 6.3 percent disagreed and the 2.5 strongly disagreed. Therefore, among activities that developers normally do is planning as presented in table 4.4.3. It was also found that repayment period allows consultations with the stakeholders of the bank as presented on table 4.4.4 Table 4.4.4: Repayment period allows consultations with the stakeholders Strongly dis agree Disagree Not sure Agree Strongly agree Total Frequency 3 6 31 38 2 80 Percent 3.8 7.5 38.8 47.5 2.5 100.0 Valid Percent 3.8 7.5 38.8 47.5 2.5 100.0 Cumulative Percent 3.8 11.3 50.0 97.5 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 According to the information presented in table 4.4.4, 47.5 percent of the respondents agreed with the view that repayment period allow consultations with the stakeholders. 38.8 percent was not sure, 7.5 disagreed, 3.8 disagreed and 2.5 strongly agreed. 55 4.3 Mortgage finance and growth of real estate The study went further to follow the topical presentation in establishing the relevance of mortgage finance to the growth of real estate. One of the questions asked to respondents was to state whether mortgage finance lead to real estate growth and 100 percent of the respondents supported this assertion. While explaining this assertion, respondents stated that the bank normally restricts developers or clients seeking for mortgage finance on the development of houses or real estate rather than any other activity. In further justification, the researcher asked whether mortgage finance increase the rate of development of real estate and the findings are presented in table 4.5.1. Table 4.5.1: Mortgage finance increases the rate of real estate development Strongly dis agree Disagree Not sure Agree Total Frequency 1 1 64 14 80 Percent 1.3 1.3 80.0 17.5 100.0 Valid Percent 1.3 1.3 80.0 17.5 100.0 Cumulative Percent 1.3 2.5 82.5 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 The information presented on table 4.5.1 shows that mortgage finance increases the rate of real estate growth. Accordingly, 80.0 percent of the respondents were not sure with the statement, 17.5 percent strongly agreed, 1.3 percent disagreed and strongly disagreed respectively. On whether mortgage finance is better than loans, quantitative findings are presented on table 4.5.2. 56 Table 4.5.2: Mortage finance is better than loans in developing real estate Dis agree Not sure Agree Strongly agree Total Frequency 3 6 56 15 80 Percent 3.8 7.5 70.0 18.8 100.0 Valid Percent 3.8 7.5 70.0 18.8 100.0 Cumulative Percent 3.8 11.3 81.3 100.0 Source: Primary data, 2015 According to the findings presented in table 4.5.2, 70.0 percent of the respondents agreed with the statement and 18.8 strongly agreed. 7.5 percent was not sure and 3.8 percent disagreed. This thus supported the view that mortgages are better than loans; since the study was carried out among the employees of HFB, the researcher was convinced with the result. On whether mortgage finance suits the conditions in Uganda, the findings are presented on table 4.5.3 Table 4.5.3: Mortgage finance suits the conditions in Uganda Strongly dis agree Disagree Not sure Agree Strongly agree Total Frequency 2 2 5 56 15 80 Percent 2.5 2.5 6.3 70.0 18.8 100.0 Valid Percent 2.5 2.5 6.3 70.0 18.8 100.0 Cumulative Percent 2.5 5.0 11.3 81.3 100.0 Source: Prima data, 2015 As presented on table 4.5.3, 70.0 percent of the respondents agreed with the view that mortgage finance suits the conditions in Uganda and 18.8 percent strongly disagreed. 6.3 percent was not sure, 2.5 percent disagreed and strongly disagreed respectively. 4.4 Statistical analysis to the findings The researcher went further to analyze the findings using the chi-square analysis in which the research questions therein was perceived as hypothesis. For example, the research question one 57 which states that: What are the effects of the accessed mortgage funds from Housing Finance Bank on real estate growth? Under the hypothetical or assumptions, it was taken as: There are significant effects of the accessed mortgage funds from Housing Finance Bank on real estate growth. Statistically, the information supporting that there was significance has been presented on table 4.6.1 of this dissertation. Table 4.6.1: Test Statistical significance about accessed mortgage finance to the growth of real estate Chi-Square a,b df As ymp. Sig. Significance of the access ed mortgage finance in getting new construction site 108.000 4 .000 Significance of the access ed mortgage finance in paying workers 85.250 4 .000 Significance of access ed mortgage finance in increasing developers ' ass ets 96.625 4 .000 Significance of the access ed mortgage finance increase on real es tate growth 63.500 3 .000 a. 0 cells (.0%) have expected frequencies less than 5. The minimum expected cell frequency is 16.0. b. 0 cells (.0%) have expected frequencies less than 5. The minimum expected cell frequency is 20.0. Source: Primary data, 2015 The second research question seeks to establish the effects of mortgage default in Housing Finance Bank on real estate growth and statistical findings have been presented on table 4.6.2 with the hypothetical or assumption that:- there are positive significant effects of mortgage default in Housing Bank on real estate growth. 58 Table 4.6.2: Test Statistics significant effects of mortgage finance default in the HFB on real estate growth Chi-Square a df As ymp. Sig. Mortgage finance default hinders daily activities of HFB for real es tate growth 62.125 4 .000 Mortgage finance default hinders growth of real es tate 60.500 4 .000 Mortgage finance default hinders administrative work of HFB 49.375 4 .000 Mortgage finance default reduces the finance res ources of HFB to support real estate growth 119.000 4 .000 a. 0 cells (.0%) have expected frequencies less than 5. The minimum expected cell frequency is 16.0. Source: Primary data, 2015 The same analysis was used to establish how significant were the effects of mortgage repayment period in Housing Finance Bank on real estate growth and statistical significance have been presented in table 4.6.3 of this dissertation. Table 4.6.3: Test Statistics for the significance of repayment period to HFB on real estate growth Chi-Square a df As ymp. Sig. The repayement period fevours the developemt of real estate 88.625 4 .000 Repayement period creates ample time to accumulate profits from real es tate 65.875 4 .000 Repayement period promotes activities for the growth of real es tate 113.375 4 .000 Repayement period allows planning for the real estate 105.625 4 .000 a. 0 cells (.0%) have expected frequencies less than 5. The minimum expected cell frequency is 16.0. Source: Primary data, 2015 Using the statistical tests presented in tables 4.6.1, 4.6.2 and 4.6.3, the researcher reached at the inference that there were significances in relation to the hypothesis delivered from the research questions used. 4.5 Conclusion It can be concluded that mortgage finance has positive results in the development of real estate despite various challenges that could be resulting. Even, such challenges are created as bank 59 officials attempt to get more profits. In doing so, they increase the interest rate which in long run affect the performance of real estate among developers. 60 CHAPTER FIVE DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.0 Introduction This chapter presents the discussions of the findings basing on the findings and research questions. It should be noted that the mothers of thought about mortgage finance perceived the view having found that mortgages were significant to the growth of real estates, acquiring land and houses as well. Due to different moderates and need for profits in the process, what was perceived to be accruing from the bank fail to take place. It was from this that the researcher went on to establish the effects of mortgage finance on real estate growth using a case study of Kampala District. 5.1 Discussion of Findings According to chapter one, the dissertation had three research questions in which the headings hereunder were delivered from. 5.1.1 Whether there is an effects of accessed mortgage funds on real estate growth While assessing and establishing the effects of mortgage funds on real estate, the researcher found that mortgage finance is important basing on the areas of development as presented in table 4.2.1 in which 63.8 percent of the respondents agreed with the statement. It was also found that mortgage finance is instrumental in meeting various expenses and workers in particular. This is in congruence with the research study by Hoek-Smith (2011) in Nigeria where it was found that mortgage finance led developers into different results such as construction of different houses and real estate. Other effects of mortgage finance on the growth of real estate is that accessed mortgage finance helps in paying the workers and this was supported 63.8 percent of 61 the respondents. Such effects were found in congruence with different studies that preceded this study. For example, in effort to fast the work of affordable homes, the World Bank (2012) presented that accessed mortgage finance is influential in purchasing affordable houses. It also attracts the market forces in different directions. For example, the World Bank (ibid) reveals that when developers access little finance and construct small houses amidst of increased population, the demand for houses increases and this increase prices from the populace. The reverse is true to this argument. According to Boleat (2002), a strong mortgage market widens financial system. Although this is true, it remains contrary to the findings of this study because it was found that very few financial institutions have taken the role of mortgage finance and this means that the market base still needs to be widened up. 5.1.2 Whether there is an effects of mortgage default on real estate growth The analysis to the findings of this study revealed that there are significant effects of mortgage default as presented in table 4.6.2. In accordance to the findings, it is revealed that mortgage default hinders the growth of real estate although workers can continue working with the banks in which developers get mortgages from. Besides, workers under developers of real estate cannot continue in process despite the continuation of the workers from the banks. These discussions support the arguments advanced by Koh et al (2005) while analyzing the option-based model of financial intermediaries and the underlying asset falls. The scholars advanced that for mortgages to be beneficial to the public, developers and financial institutions must avail what they have to their clients. The findings however do not agree with the assertion that the market forces must be the ruling force rather than entities, individuals and objects; falls under Collyns and Senhadji (2003) who noted that the banking system in most East Asian countries is the dominant financial system where equity and bond markets are fairly underdeveloped. This applies to Ugandan case and Kampala 62 District in particular where this study was carried out. It was found that due to the need of more profits, banks normally decrease repayment period and this affect the developers seeking for funds. It was also found that default creates unease among the developers of real estates to the extent that they only work to pay mortgage finance rather than developing themselves and instituting development on the ground. This according to the findings on table 4.3.4 was supported by 88.8 percent. 5.1.3 Whether there an effects of mortgage repayment period on real estate growth Lastly, the study established the extent how banks determine the repayment period and according to the findings; determining the repayment period is an important component in reference to the growth of real estate and the bank itself. According to the quantitative findings, table 4.1.2, reveals that the findings although the repayment period is enough, it is not good enough to the developers of real estate. This according to Kibirige (2006) is an important factor considered in appraising viability of a mortgage application by developers among others. Like the finding presented by this study, the scholar observes that Uganda lacks financial institutions that lack strong muscles to support the development of real estate. It is due to this reason that banks such as the Housing Finance Bank have short periods of repayment than the long periods. It is from such circumstances that the researcher had to infer that among other factors for the continual existence of housing crisis in Kampala has been due to the situation created within the banks background. Despite of such assertion, the findings reveal that the repayment period creates an ample time for accumulation of profits among the developers. This was supported by 67.5 percent of the 63 respondents as presented in table 4.1.1. 92.5 percent also supported that repayment given to developers allow the developers to carry out activities related to real estate growth. 5.2 Conclusion Basing on the finding and statistical analysis presented in this chapter the researcher concludes the study by asserting that the influence of mortgage finance is still influential in regard to housing and construction. Like the mother of the idea of mortgage finance and the last scholars who found mortgage finance instrumental not only to houses or real estate development, the researcher concludes that despite the challenges found in using the mortgage finance as presented in this study; if appropriate means and procedures are laid down for the case of Uganda, better results are likely to be achieved and the housing crisis is likely to be an issue of the past. It is from the finding and conclusion of this format the researcher has to recommend as presented herewith. 5.3 Recommendations The findings of the study present various effects of accessed mortgage finance from the Housing Finance Bank. Imperatively, it was found that the process for getting finance requires various items such as the securities; it is from this that the researcher calls upon the bank to create a process of constructing houses or real estate to be sold to individuals who can afford raising the money to buy houses yet they do not have securities to be used in getting mortgage finance. This approach can increase houses in Kampala District but will also increase a number of individuals owning houses. The bank needs also to use a soft but restrictive approach while reclaiming the funds from such groups; this will in short and long run increase clients to the bank. Besides, it 64 was found that although mortgage finance is appropriate and important to the growth of real estate in Uganda and Kampala District in particular, not all people can access it due to failure to qualify. The researcher found it imperative for the bank to involve the Government of Uganda, the Ministry of Lands, private entities and individual persons in the process of constructing and acquiring houses if the process is to benefit majority nationals. The involvement of such bodies will in short and long run clears the road that would lead to increased payment to the bank and remove the existing defaults to the bank. The study also found positive effects of the bank mortgage in Kampala despite the fact that most people do not have access to them. This calls the banks involving in mortgage business to increase on sensitization of mortgage finance to the general public in Uganda and Kampala District in particular. In such sensitization, the mode should be put on the profits that developers accrue in involving in the real estate development and growth and the simplistic nature of the bank alongside long standing period to repay mortgage finance loans. In such approach, banks will attract not only existing developers to continue in the system, but will attract new developers in the system and the whole process shall be gorgeous Basing on the findings of this study, the Housing Finance Bank needs to increase the repayment period to its clients from only 10 years to 25 years and beyond. This will in the first instance increase the number of developers into the construction of real estate in Uganda and Kampala District in particular. Secondly, with the increase in number of developers of mortgage finance, banks will receive recommended number of clients and this shall increase on the profitability and liquidity of the bank. In the due course, developers will construct different houses in Kampala District and Uganda in general and the crisis shall be an issue of the past. 65 5.4 Areas of further Research Opportunities for further research also exist in the area of investigating mortgage systems in developed countries with the aim of adopting the process that contributed to their efficiency. Such studies can help to shed light on specific steps that boost mortgage system in Uganda. This study assessed only the influence of mortgage financing yet there are other factors that affect real estate growth such as government policy and legislation, macroeconomic environment and land tenure system. These could be looked at with a larger sample space in lieu to the nature of the developers in using such mortgage money. 66 References Barker, K. 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You have been carefully selected to participate in this study because of your wealth of experience in this area and your response will be handled with utmost confidentiality. Thank you for taking time to record your insight on the subject. (Tick where appropriate) SECTION A Background formation Male 1. Gender: Below 20 2. Age (in years) Female 20-30 31-40 41-50 Over 50 3. Highest level of Education O/A Level Diploma & certificate Degrees Post-Graduate Other (Specify) 4. What type of real estate developers do normally give mortgage finance? Retail-space Office Space Residential space Manufacturing space 5. You normally give mortgage of how many years? Less than 5 years 5-10 years 11-15 years 15-25 years Industrial space Over 25 years 6. What is the attitude of the developers to the mortgage finance? Positive Indifferent Negative 7. In your opinion, do you think mortgage finance is the best approach to fund developers of real estate? 70 Yes No Give reasons to support your answer ………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 8. Does the bank attract its employees to get involved in real estate development? Yes No Give reasons to support your answer ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 9. How does the bank attract the public into real estate development? ………………………………………………………………………………………………………… SECTION B Accessed mortgage funds from Housing Finance Bank and real estate growth Use the following to answer the question: 1 = Strongly disagree, 2 = Disagree 3 = Not Sure 4 = Agree 5 =Strongly agree 1 2 3 45 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Accessed mortgage finance helps developers to get new construction site Accessed mortgage finance helps developers to pay its workers Accessed mortgage finance increases morale among developers Accessed mortgage finance leads to developers’ growth Accessed mortgage finance helps in increasing developers’ assets Accessed mortgage finance helps in increased real estate Accessed mortgage finance is effectively used than finance from other sources Accessed mortgage finance attracts more investors to real estate development Accessed mortgage finance leads to growth of estates in Kampala Accessed mortgage finance influences developers to invest in houses Accessed mortgage finance increases developers morale to invest Accessed mortgage finance is the only way to increase capital of NHCC 24. Is there other way through which accessed mortgage finance affects real estate growth? a) Yes b) No Explain your answers …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 71 SECTION C Effects of mortgage default in Housing Finance Bank on real estate growth In a situation of mortgage defaults, use the table below to agree or disagree with the statement 1 = Strongly disagree, 2 = Disagree 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 3 = Not Sure 4 = Agree 5 =Strongly agree 1 2 3 4 5 Mortgage finance default hinders daily activities of HFB Mortgage finance default crates employee turnover Mortgage finance default decreases morale of the workers Mortgage finance default hinders the growth of HFB Mortgage finance default makes the banks to sell assets of developers Mortgage finance default hinders administrative work in the bank Mortgage finance default reduces the finance resources of HFB Mortgage finance default reduces HFB development Mortgage finance defaults negatively affects the growth of banks’ assets Mortgage finance default stresses HFB creditors 36. What are other effects of mortgage defaults with the HFB? ………………………………………………………………………………………………… SECTION D Effects of mortgage repayment period in Housing Finance Bank on real estate growth Use the following answers as provided to agree or disagree with the statements in the table below. 1 = Strongly disagree, 2 = Disagree 3 = Not Sure 4 = Agree 5 =Strongly agree 1 2 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 The repayment period favours the development and growth of estate The repayment period creates ample time to accumulate profits The repayment period is shorter than what is expected The repayment period promotes activities for the growth of real estate The repayment period allows planning for real estates The repayment period gives developers to plan for other resources The repayment period is essential for the growth of the bank The repayment period allows consultations with stakeholders 72 3 4 5 SECTION E Mortgage finance and real estate growth 43. Mortgage finance lead to real estate growth a) Yes b) No Explain your answer ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 44. Are there mortgage finance defaults with HFB? a) Yes b) No If so, explain the banks action to recover the money ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… If no, explain how the HFB has been able to avoid such ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 45. State the repayment period of mortgage finance within HFB ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 46. Are there many people accessing mortgage finance under HFB? a) Yes b) No Explain your answer ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… Use the following answers as provided to agree or disagree with the statements in the table below. 1 = Strongly disagree, 2 = Disagree 3 = Not Sure 4 = Agree 5 =Strongly agree 1 2 47 48 49 50 51 3 4 5 Mortgage finance increases the rate of real estate development Mortgage finance attracts investors into real estate development Mortgage finance is better than loans in real estate development Mortgage finance is a good approach for conditions in Uganda Mortgage finance is a basis for investment in real estate Thank you for your cooperation END 73