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Measuring Economic Performance

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Y12
Macroeconomics
Introduction
Macroeconomics
What is it?
Macroeconomics (from the Greek prefix makro- meaning "large" and
economics) is a branch of economics dealing with the performance,
structure, behaviour, and decision-making of an economy as a whole.
This includes regional, national, and global economies.
It looks at government actions to control their economies as well as the
relationships and connections between one country and another.
Aggregated analysis
Microeconomics
Decisions of
individuals and firms
to form markets.
Macroeconomics
The aggregated analysis of many markets brought
together into one economy.
A lot of emphasis is placed on government control of
their economy.
Macroeconomics
What does the
government do?
What are they looking to
control?
Macroeconomics
Are they successful?
How do you judge their
success?
Macroeconomics
How would you rank these countries?
USA
China
Norway
What were you basing your decisions on?
Costa Rica
The UK is an example of a mixed economy.
In a mixed economy, the government intervenes to a degree.
THE FOUR MAIN MACROECONOMIC POLICY OBJECTIVES
The governments of most mixed economies have four main objectives in relation to the
economy:
•
•
•
•
to achieve economic growth
to work towards full employment
to limit inflation
to ensure a ‘satisfactory’ balance of payments
policy objective = a goal/desired outcome that a government (for instance) wants to
achieve.
Economic growth
Economic growth is an increase in the capacity of an economy to produce goods and
services, compared from one period of time to another.
Economic growth is an objective because ceteris paribus it means improving living
standards and greater economic welfare for citizens.
Measured using GDP and when talking about growth it is usually recorded as a percentage
Unemployment
The percentage of people who are unable to find work, but are able and willing to work
(Seeking work).
● Calculated using a few
different measures,
either claimant count
or ILO measure often
used in UK
● Recorded as %
unemployed
Inflation
The general and persistent rise in prices over a period of time
● Calculated using RPI or
CPI (basket of goods)
● Recorded as a
percentage change
● Below 0% is deflation
Balance of Payments
The balance of payments (BOP) records all financial transactions made between consumers,
businesses and the government in one country with others
● Inflows of foreign currency
are counted as a positive
entry (e.g. exports sold
overseas)
● Outflows of foreign
currency are counted as a
negative entry (e.g.
imported goods and
services)
Other objectives
Environment
Equality
Innovation
Public services
Trade agreements
Government budget... debt
Which do you think is the most
important out of these.
Why do you think they’re seen as
less important than the 4 main
macroeconomic objectives?
So how do we measure an economy?
How do we measure whether the government is meeting its economic
objectives?
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
WHAT ARE THE KEY MACROECONOMIC
INDICATORS?
• Measuring the macroeconomic performance of a country over
time involves assessing various economic indicators that provide
insights into the overall health and growth of the economy.
• These indicators help policymakers, economists, and investors
understand trends, identify potential issues, and formulate
appropriate policies
• The relative importance attached to each indicator can and does
change over time.
SELECTION OF KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Some key macroeconomic indicators include the following:
•
Growth of real GDP (national output)
•
Real GDP per capita
•
Annual rate of consumer price inflation
•
Unemployment rate (% of the labour force)
•
Balance of trade in goods and services
•
Government borrowing and national debt
•
Monetary policy interest rates
•
Labour productivity (GDP per person employed)
MEASURING THE FOUR MAIN MACROECONOMIC POLICY OBJECTIVES
Measuring Economic Growth
GDP
Gross domestic product (GDP) is a
monetary measure of the market value of
all the final goods and services produced
in a period (quarterly or yearly) of time.
The letter ‘Y’ can be used to represent
GDP in economics
GDP maps
Look at the maps you have been given, they are all GDP but in slightly
different forms, can you work out…
1. What each map is showing
2. Why it is important we understand which measurement of GDP we
are looking at...use examples.
3. Which country has the most successful economy? Explain using
reference to the data on the maps and highlight why you have
prioritised certain points.
Subtle differences...
Being precise with your use of key
terms is essential. It can also
highlight great evaluation
opportunities.
Nominal GDP
GDP evaluated at current market prices. It will include all of the changes in market
prices that have occurred during the current year due to inflation or deflation
Real GDP
An inflation-adjusted measure that reflects the value of all goods and services
produced by an economy in a given year. We usually use this measure as it shows
the change in physical output.
GDP Growth
The percent rate of increase in real gross domestic product, or real GDP
GDP per capita
a measure of a country's economic output that accounts for its number of people.
It divides the country's gross domestic product by its total population.
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
Annual growth
GROWTH OF REAL GDP FOR THE UK (1949-2022)
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
Real GDP per capita in £s
REAL GDP PER CAPITA FOR THE UK
35 000
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
Measuring Inflation
Inflation
How would you measure inflation?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYf9TZp99Xw
Inflation
Inflation is measured using the Consumer Price Index
(CPI) and the Retail Price Index (RPI).
Both measure using a ‘basket’ of goods and services
regularly used by consumers.
The data is found using a family expenditure survey –
the survey covers over 40,000 households in the UK
The UK and Europe use CPI rather than RPI
CPI/RPI
A representative basket of goods and services used is
compared over time. Weights are attached to each
item - based on these items’ importance in people’s
expenditure as measured by the family spending
survey
Each month government officials collect 120,000
separate price quotations in 141 locations of around
700 products
Weights are multiplied by price changes - the
weighted price changes are then totalled to calculate
the inflation rate
CPI/RPI
The “shopping baskets‟ of items used in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) are reviewed each
year. Some items are taken out and some are added to make sure the CPI is up to date and
representative of consumer spending patterns
TASK: Read the
article and write
an explanation of
why it is
important that
the ‘basket’ is
regularly
updated.
CPI vs RPI
Both RPI and CPI measure inflation. Both of them take a basket of goods – food, clothes,
petrol etc. - comparing what they cost last year to what they cost now, and finding the
proportional difference.
But the CPI leaves the costs
of your home out of the
basket – so rises in mortgage
payments, rents, and council
tax, which in real life you pay,
don’t get reflected in it. The
RPI does take account of
those costs.
CPI vs RPI
https://www.theweek.co.uk/87811/rpi-vs-cpi-inflationare-commuters-paying-the-price
“RPI uses a formula known as "Carli" that doesn't account for changes in shopping behaviour if prices
rise. It tracks inflation as having risen if a price drops and returns to its previous level, says the Financial
Times.
No other advanced economy uses a Carli-based measure of inflation. RPI is believed to overstate
inflation by an average of 0.8%. It lost its National Statistics kitemark six years ago.
CPI uses the more robust “Jevons” formula that is used in most developed economies. It has been used
as the main benchmark for UK inflation since 2003.
RPI generally runs at about 1% higher than CPI”
The government still uses RPI for some things… read and explain why this matters!
Limitations of CPI
Few households are average – the published figure for inflation is rarely the actual
rate of inflation experienced by different people
●
The CPI is not fully representative - it will be inaccurate for the ‘non-typical’
household, e.g. 14% of the CPI index is devoted to motoring costs - inapplicable for
non-car owners.
●
Spending patterns: e.g. Single people have different spending patterns from
households that have one or more children
●
Changing quality of goods and services: Although the price of a good or service
may rise, this may also be accompanied by improvements in quality / performance of
the product
●
New products: The CPI is slow to respond to new products and services – the CPI
basket is changed each year but only a few items fall out / come in
ANNUAL RATE OF UK CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION
Inflation rate forecast
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
2023 is a forecast
published in April
2023. Source: OBR
TUTOR2U.NET/ECONOMICS
INFLATION RATES OF THE G7 COUNTRIES
France
Germany
Italy
United Kingdom
United States
Japan
10,0%
8,0%
6,0%
4,0%
2,0%
0,0%
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
-2,0%
2000
CPI change compared to last year
Canada
TUTOR2U.NET/ECONOMICS
Measuring Unemployment
Unemployment
Definition?
The percentage of people who are
unable to find work, but are able and
willing to work (Seeking work).
Why do we talk
about
unemployment
rather than
employment?
Unemployment
Why do we talk
about
unemployment
rather than
employment?
2 Measures...
Labour force
survey
Counts those who are without any
kind of job including part time work
but who have looked for work in
the past month and are able to
start work immediately. The
figure includes those people who
have found a job and are waiting
to start in the next two weeks.
Claimant
count
Includes people who are eligible
to claim the Job Seeker's
Allowance (JSA). The data is
seasonally adjusted to take into
account predictable seasonal
changes in the demand for
labour.
Comparisons
Read through the information table
on LFS and CC.
Make a list of the positives and
negatives of each measures
● This might be about recording
unemployment… What does one
include that the other doesn’t?
● Which is the most accurate
measure?
● Which is the most useful for the
government?
Comparisons like this often
come up in exams
Differences
LFS unemployed but not claimant count unemployed
The following groups would not be entitled to claim unemployment
related benefits but could be looking for and available to start work:
● people whose partner works more than 24 hours a week
● young people under 18 who are looking for work but do not
take up the offer of a Youth Training place
● students looking for part‐time work or vacation work
● people who have left their job voluntarily
● people with savings of over £16,000.
Differences
Claimant count unemployed but not LFS unemployed
Similarly, those out of work, capable of, available for and actively
seeking work may be eligible to claim JSA but not appear in the LFS
measure of unemployment if that person:
● when interviewed for the survey, states that they are not
seeking, or are not available to start work
● has done at least one hour’s paid work in the week (but less
than the 16 hour average as required to be eligible for JSA,
depending on income) prior to interview or has a job they are
temporarily away from e.g. on holiday
● is on a Government training scheme e.g. Steps 2 Success.
Knowledge test
Use your first sheet to help work it out
Knowledge test
Mar 71
Mar 73
Mar 75
Mar 77
Mar 79
Mar 81
Mar 83
Mar 85
Mar 87
Mar 89
Mar 91
Mar 93
Mar 95
Mar 97
Mar 99
Mar 01
Mar 03
Mar 05
Mar 07
Mar 09
Mar 11
Mar 13
Mar 15
Mar 17
Mar 19
Mar 21
Mar 23
Unemployment rate
UK UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (% OF LABOUR FORCE)
12,5%
11,5%
10,5%
9,5%
8,5%
7,5%
6,5%
5,5%
4,5%
3,5%
2,5%
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
TUTOR2U.NET/ECONOMICS
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF THE G7 COUNTRIES
Canada
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
14%
Unemployment rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0%
TUTOR2U.NET/ECONOMICS
Measuring Balance of Payments
Global trade
Describe the trends...
Interactive map
Balance of Payments
Definition?
The balance of payments measures all of the
currency flows into and out of an economy in
a particular time period (usually a month,
quarter or year).
Balance of Payments
The balance of payments (BOP) records all financial transactions made
between consumers, businesses and the government in one country with
other nations
Inflows of foreign currency
are counted as a positive
entry (e.g. exports sold
overseas)
Outflows of foreign currency
are counted as a negative
entry (e.g. imported goods
and services)
Surplus or Deficit?
Imports > Exports = Current account deficit
(there’s more money leaving the country than coming in)
Exports > Imports = Current account surplus
(the money coming into the country exceeds that leaving)
Research to find what
each includes
4 Elements
There are 4
elements of the
Balance of
Payments on the
current account
(there are other
accounts on the
balance of
payments, but at
this stage we just
focus on the
current account)
Trade Balance in
Goods (visibles)
Trade Balance in
Services (invisibles)
Primary income
Secondary income
➔
➔
Finished manufactured goods, components, raw
materials
Energy products, Capital technology
➔ Banking, Insurance, Consultancy
➔ Tourism, Transport, Logistics
➔ Shipping, Education, Health
➔
➔
Incomes from interest, profits and dividends
generated from foreign investment
Migrant remittances
➔
➔
Spending on military aid
Overseas development aid
4 Elements - Example
If a country is running a current account deficit, there is a net outflow
of demand and income from the circular flow.
Item of the Balance of Payments
Net balance
$ Billion
Current Account
(1 ) Balance of trade in goods
-25
(2) Balance of trade in services
+10
(3) Net primary income
+8
(4) Net secondary income
-12
Sum of 1+2+3+4 = Current account balance
-19
Discuss - Application
Decide whether the following countries operate at a surplus or a deficit on
the current account of the balance of payments ...and how much? (% of GDP)
What is guiding your decisions?
Saudi Arabia
Afghanistan
Norway
Find the current figures online to see if you were right...
Breaking it down
The UK’s current account deficit has
widened in recent years.
The UK recorded the largest deficit in
2018 among other G7 economies at
4.3% of GDP.
The UK, Canada and United States are
the largest current account deficit
holders amongst other advanced
economies.
In contrast, Germany holds the largest
current account surplus at 7.3% of GDP,
which is followed by Japan at 3.5%.
Breaking down the BOP can be a
helpful way to build on your analysis
Inconsistency?
Trade is not always as simple
as it first appears...
Read through the article and
list the possible reasons for
problems with the recorded
trade statistics
UK TRADE BALANCE IN GOODS AND SERVICES
Services trade balance
Overall trade balance
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
-5 000
-10 000
-15 000
-20 000
-25 000
-30 000
Jan 97
Feb 98
Mar 99
Apr 00
May 01
Jun 02
Jul 03
Aug 04
Sep 05
Oct 06
Nov 07
Dec 08
Jan 10
Feb 11
Mar 12
Apr 13
May 14
Jun 15
Jul 16
Aug 17
Sep 18
Oct 19
Nov 20
Dec 21
Jan 23
Balance of trade £ million
Goods trade balance
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
TUTOR2U.NET/ECONOMICS
UK GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND TAX REVENUES
Revenue / Spending in billion
pounds
Revenue
Spending
1 300
1 200
1 100
1 000
900
800
700
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023* 2024* 2025* 2026* 2027* 2028*
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
TUTOR2U.NET/ECONOMICS
Measuring Economic Growth
- Change in national output (goods and services
produced) over a period of time.
Measured in two ways: Volume (quantity) of
goods/services in one year or Value (£billions) of
goods/services in one year. Usually measured by value
– known as GDP.
Measuring Economic Growth
Measured as a percentage – the rate is the speed at
which national output grows over time.
• Long periods of growth = “Boom”
• Negative growth in two consecutive quarters =
“Recession”. A long recession = “Slump”
• “Economic depression” = sustained economic
downturn, usually lasting several years.
Measuring Economic Growth
To measure the rate of economic growth:
𝐶ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝐺𝐷𝑃 (£𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠)
× 100
𝑂𝑟𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝐺𝐷𝑃 (£𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠)
Measuring Economic Growth
Some GDP growth maybe due to inflation – Nominal
GDP is GDP not adjusted for inflation.
This can be misleading, implies GDP is higher than it
actually is.
So Real GDP is where the effect of inflation is
removed. E.g. 4% increase in nominal GDP when
inflation is 3% means real GDP rose by 1%.
Measuring Economic Growth
GDP gives an indication on the country’s standard of
living by finding GDP per capita (person)
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐺𝐷𝑃
= 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎
𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑖𝑧𝑒
Higher the GDP per capita, higher the standard of living
Measuring Economic Growth
GNI and GNP (Gross National Income, Product)
compare living standards across countries.
GNI = GDP plus net income from abroad
GNP = Total output of citizens of a country, whether
or not they are resident.
Measuring Economic Growth
Purchasing Power Parities (PPP):
Used in comparison of living standards.
Exchange rates may not reflect the true worth of currencies so
can affect GDP comparisons.
Purchasing Power is the real value of money (what you can
actually buy). E.g. In a less developed country (Malawi, for
example) $1 will buy you more goods than in a developed country
(e.g. Canada).
Measuring Economic Growth
Purchasing Power Parities (PPP):
Using PPP involves adjusting GDP per capita to account
for differences in purchasing power, expressed in US
Dollars.
Paints a more accurate and easier comparison.
Measuring Economic Growth
GDP/GDP per capita used to compere economic
performance such that:
High GDP = suggests economic performance if
strong
High GDP per capita = suggests high standard of
living
Measuring Economic Growth
Limitations of GDP comparisons:
•
•
Extent of hidden economy – activity not appearing
in official figures
Public spending – some govt. provide more benefits
(unemployment, health care etc.) – countries may
have comparable GDP per capita but one country
may spend more per person on benefits to improve
their standard of living.
Measuring Economic Growth
Limitations of GDP comparisons:
•
•
Extent of income inequality - distribution of
income between rich and poor may vary massively
country to country.
Other differences – number of hours worked per
week, working conditions, damage to the
environment, spending needs (heating cold climate
country to achieve same comfort in warmer
countries)
Index Numbers
Changes in real GDP are usually expressed using index
numbers. They make comparisons over a period of time.
First year is the ‘base year’, index = 100.
Later years, an increase causes the number to go above 100
(e.g. 3% rise over one year means index rose to ‘103’). Whereas
a 2% fall means it would be 98 in Year 2.
An index number of 108 in year 4 means an 8% rise from the
base year.
Measuring Economic Growth
Quick homework task:
Search up/research about the ‘Big Mac Index’ and
why it could be a (albeit light-hearted) method for
measuring a PPP exchange rate.
Measuring Inflation
Inflation = sustained rise in average price of goods
and services over time.
It also can be seen as a fall in the value of money
(£10 buys you less today than it did a year ago), the
purchasing power of money has fallen
Measuring Inflation
Inflation is positive, negative or 0.
1)
2)
3)
4)
Inflation is positive when average price of
goods/services is rising
Deflation (or negative inflation) is when average
price is falling
Hyperinflation is when prices rise extremely
quickly and money loses value
Disinflation is when the rate is slowing down but
still rising (i.e. 6% in June, 4% in July)
Measuring Inflation
Two main measures:
Retail Price Index (RPI) – two surveys
Living Costs and Food survey (to find out what
people spend money on) and proportion of income
(20% on transport = 20% weighting is given)
‘Basket of goods’ measures price of 700ish
goods/services. Price changes in the basket are
multiplied by the weighting, then converted to
index number
Measuring Inflation
Two main measures:
Consumer Price Index
Similar to RPI but:
1) Mortgage interest payments + council tax
excluded
2) Slightly different formula
3) Larger population sample than RPI
Measuring Inflation
CPI tends to be lower than RPI – exception is when
interest rates are very low.
Other countries use similar methods to CPI, so
useful for international comparison
Measuring Inflation
Limitations
1) RPI excludes households in the top 4%, CPI
covers a broader range but excludes the things
mentioned previously
2) Information given by the Living Costs and Food
Survey can be inaccurate
3) Basket only changes once per year, so can miss
short-term changes in spending patterns.
Measuring Inflation
RPI/CPI used to help determine wages and state
benefits
1)
2)
3)
Employes + trade unions use them in wage
negotiations
Government uses to decide on state pension
increases and welfare benefits
Some benefits are index linked – rise
automatically by the same percentage as the
chosen index
Measuring Inflation
International competitiveness
If CPI is higher in the UK than countries we trade
with, then UK goods become less price competitive
as they cost more!
Exports therefore fall. Imports are now relatively
cheaper by domestic inflation, and hence increase
Measuring Unemployment
Defining:
1)
2)
Number of people looking for a job but cannot
find one
Rate of unemployment is number as a
percentage of the labour force
Rate of unemployment is used to compare across
countries (due to population difference)
Measuring Unemployment
The Claimant Count
Number of people claiming unemployment benefits
from government.
Includes : Job Seeker’s Allowance (JSA), Universal
Credit and other smaller groups
Measuring Unemployment
Advantages include:
- Data easy to obtain, count people claiming benefits
- Little/no cost in collecting data is recorded when applied for.
Disadvantages include:
- Data can be manipulated by governments to make it seem
smaller (e.g. raise school leaving age to 19) to reduce those
able to claim.
- Excludes people looking for work but not able to claim (or
choose not to claim) benefits.
Measuring Unemployment
The Labour Force Survey
International Labour Organistation (ILO) uses a population
sample. Asks a representation of the population and added up
to produce the ILO unemployment count.
Measuring Unemployment
Advantages include:
- Thought to be more accurate than Claimant Count
- Internationally agreed measure and therefore easy to
compare across countries
Disadvantages include:
- Expensive to collect and time-consuming
- Sample may be unrepresentative of the whole population and
therefore inaccurate
Measuring Unemployment
The Labour Force Survey tends to be higher than the claimant
count as groups of people are excluded from the latter.
For example, you may not be able to claim if you have a high
earning spouse, or have too much money in savings.
Measuring Unemployment
Unemployment is a cost to the whole economy.
Governments wish to keep track because:
1) High unemployment = suggests economy is performing
badly
2) Unemployment leads to lower income and less spending.
Companies sell fewer goods, or cut prices = less profit.
3) Means unused labour in economy, so fewer goods/services
are produced.
4) Government has extra costs, such as benefits, and less
revenue as less tax is paid.
Measuring Balance of Payments
BoP refers to International Flows of money
Records the flow of money out (pay for imports) and
the flow of money into a country (payments from
exports)
Value of exports/imports, not the volume. So if
prices change but volume remains the same, then
the value will change.
Measuring Balance of Payments
Four sections in the Current Account
Records the international exchange of goods and
services:
1) Trade in goods (visible trade) – goods are either visible imports or
visible exports (cars, computers, food)
2) Trade in services (invisible trade) – such as tourism, insurance,
transport
3) International flows of income earned as salaries, interest, profit
and dividends. (interest on account held in foreign country)
4) Transfers of money from one person/government to another
(foreign aid, family member in another country)
Measuring Balance of Payments
The Balance of Payments is not always balance.
If money in exceeds money flowing out, there is a surplus.
If money out exceeds money flowing in, there is a deficit.
Recently the UK has had a deficit in the BoP.
- Usually has a surplus in invisible trade
- But a large deficit in visible trade
Measuring Balance of Payments
A deficit isn’t necessarily a bad thing – but it does imply that
the country is uncompetitive
Governments want to avoid a large, long term deficit. Can
cause bigger problems, such as job losses.
Measuring Balance of Payments
For each of the items below, identify where it would appear in
the current account of the balance of payments and whether it
is a flow into or out of the UK:
Item 1 : A British car company increases its sales in the Far
East
Item 2 : Dividends from shares in an American company paid
to a British shareholder
Item 3 : A British family holidaying in Spain who pay for a taxi
in Madrid.
1) What are the four main macroeconomic indicators?
2) What is the difference between nominal and real GDP
output and why is it important?
3) What is meant by purchasing power parity? When is it used
and why is it important?
4) What can index numbers be used to show?
5) In what two ways can inflation be defined?
6) Describe what happens to prices in:
a) Negative inflation
b) Hyperinflation
c) Disinflation
7) In what ways is RPI different from CPI?
8) Give two negative effects unemployment has on an
economy.
Y12
Macroeconomics
Short run policy objectives
Review starter
Write a definition for the following without
looking at your notes
1. Balance of Payments
2. Inflation
3. Economic growth
4. Unemployment
Ext: Can you remember the real or target
figures for these objectives?
Forgetting curve for
newly learned
information
Key terms
Policy Conflict
When two policy objectives
cannot both be achieved at the
same time: the better the
performance in achieving one
objective, the worse the
performance in achieving
another.
You won’t need to define these
terms but using them is a very
good way to construct arguments
in essays.
Trade-offs
Although it may be impossible to
achieve two desirable objectives
at the same time, e.g. zero
inflation and full employment,
policy makers may be able to
choose an acceptable
combination lying between the
extremes, e.g. 2% inflation and
4% unemployment
Seeking balance
Because of conflicts between actions to change the objectives
trade-offs must be made to seek a desirable overall balance.
The importance attached to each objective is not static. It
changes over time due to a number of reasons…
● Stage of development of that country
● Global economic conditions
● Sentiment about the economy at that time
● ‘Hot topics’ in the media
● Experience of other countries
● Political stability / Different political parties
Policy Conflicts
Four significant conflicts between policy objectives:
1) Full employment and economic growth vs satisfactory balance of
payments or exchange rate
2) Full employment and economic growth vs control of inflation
3) Economic growth vs greater income equality
4) Current living standards vs future living standards
Finding the conflict
Good reasoning/justification is
often the difference between
top grades and lower grades
Create a table like the one below. Explain why there is a conflict in as
much detail as possible.
Objective 1
← Justification of conflict →
Objective 2
Full employment
and economic
growth
Satisfactory
balance of
payments or
exchange rate
Full employment
and economics
growth
Control of inflation
Economic growth
Income equality
Objective 1
← Justification of conflict →
Objective 2
Full employment
and economic
growth
Satisfactory
balance of
payments or
exchange rate
Full employment
and economic
growth
Control of inflation
Economic growth
Income equality
Current living
standards
Future living
standards
Economic growth
Environment
Economic growth
Government
budget deficit
Harmony?
It’s important to remember that there is not always a conflict or trade off...
Some economists would
suggest that there are
not as many trade-offs
when thinking about the
long run, it is often our
short sightedness that
makes them into more
significant conflicts.
‘Right’ policies
Not all objectives conflict. Some economists believe that with the right
policies, conflicts do not occur in the long run; they are compatible.
Most agree however that conflicts and trade-offs occur in the economic
short run.
Pro-free-market economists (those who dislike government intervention)
argue that, if appropriate supply-side policies are implemented, the main
objectives of macroeconomic policy are compatible in the long run and do
not conflict.
Exam skills today
AO1: Demonstrate knowledge of terms/concepts and theories/models to show an
understanding of the behaviour of economic agents and how they are affected by and
respond to economic issues.
AO2: Apply knowledge and understanding to various economic contexts to show how
economic agents are affected by and respond to economic issues.
AO3: Analyse issues within economics, showing an understanding of their impact on
economic agents.
AO4: Evaluate economic arguments and use qualitative and quantitative evidence to
support informed judgements relating to economic issues.
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