China Going Global
Investment Index 2023
The Belt and Road Initiative’s second decade
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CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
Contents
1. Introducing the China Going Global Investment Index
3
2. 2023 main ranking and key findings
4
3. 2023 sub-rankings
7
Market expansion: the next billion consumers in Asia and Africa
India: the market that keeps China at arm’s length
7
8
Supply-chain development: capturing friend-shoring and near-shoring trends
9
Which South-east Asian country is for you? Identifying the strengths and weaknesses
of each
10
Natural resources: why Central Asia stands out, and why African countries
1
vary in their appeal
12
Technology and innovation: focusing on non-critical IP in the West
14
4. Balancing opportunities and risks
15
Appendix 1: methodology notes
17
Appendix 2: full ranking
19
Appendix 3: full list of indicators
21
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
• The China Going Global Investment Index demonstrates the quantifiable aspects
of overseas investment strategy decisions and a systematic approach to identifying
opportunities and risks, leveraging EIU’s economic forecasts and forward-looking
risk-assessment metrics. Companies can, in turn, tailor the rankings to their particular
investment objectives.
• The 2023 edition of the Index ranks 80 investment destinations based on their appeal to
Chinese investors. Many emerging markets have grown more attractive to such investors
over the last decade, because of their natural resources, market size and/or pivotal role in
the global supply chain. Outside Asia, we have identified several Latin American, Middle
Eastern and African markets with strong potential.
• The risk tolerance of Chinese investors has declined, and the rankings for countries like Iran,
Myanmar and the Czech Republic are therefore low. Chinese investors can use the Index to
help them avoid countries with high levels of operational, financial and sanctions risk, as
well as those with cooling political relations with China.
2
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
1. Introducing the China Going Global
Investment Index
The Chinese president, Xi Jinping, launched the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, and
in the decade since, Chinese companies have become formidable global investors. The flow
of overseas direct investment (ODI) is set to grow further in the coming decade, after enthusiasm
waned briefly in recent years because of the Chinese government’s call for less speculative investment,
souring relations with key destination markets and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. In the
current geopolitical context, overseas expansion has gained importance. It enables Chinese firms to
navigate trade restrictions and to secure essential materials and technologies, and China to strengthen
its relations with other countries (particularly those outside the West).
We forecast that China will regain its position as the second-largest source of ODI by 2024.
The increase in Chinese ODI will probably mirror the trajectory observed previously in more developed
economies, as China’s income and technological capabilities advance and the domestic market
matures. However, China’s ODI flows will remain small relative to its economic weight (and those of
the US).
EIU has long supported companies and investors aiming to expand beyond their home
markets and go global. We developed the China Going Global Investment Index in 2013 to
demonstrate to investors the quantifiable aspects of ODI strategy decisions and a systematic
approach to identifying opportunities and risks. Leveraging our economic forecasts and forwardlooking risk-assessment metrics, the Index scores and ranks economies based on the opportunities
they present to Chinese companies, and the potential risks tied to bilateral relations and the business
environment. Companies can, in turn, tailor the ranking to their particular investment objectives using
the same dataset.
How EIU evaluates the appeal of different investment destinations to Chinese investors
Market expansion
(17%)
Bilateral
relations with
China (17%)
Supply-chain
development
(17%)
Opportunity
(67%)
2013
Natural resources
(18%)
Technology &
innovation (15%)
Risk
(33%)
EIU
Operational
Risk (16%)
Market expansion
(22%)
Opportunity
(50%)
Supply-chain
development
(16%)
Natural resources
(7%)
Technology &
innovation (5%)
Bilateral relations
with China (30%)
2023
Risk
(50%)
EIU Operational
Risk (12.5%)
EIU Financial
Risk (7.5%)
Source: EIU.
3
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
The 2023 edition of the Index ranks 80 investment destinations based on their appeal to
Chinese investors, using around 200 indicators. We have incorporated new markets that are
gaining attention from Chinese investors, such as Bolivia and Uzbekistan. We have given a higher
weighting to risks, particularly those associated with geopolitics, which reflects the increasingly riskaverse approach to investment decisions. The mix of indicators chosen has also evolved over the past
decade. Methodology notes, a full ranking and a full list of indicators can be found in the appendices.
2. 2023 main ranking and key findings
Investment
destination
4
2023
Rank
2013
Rank
2013-23
Change
Singapore
1
2
▲
Indonesia
2
44
▲
Malaysia
3
18
▲
Hong Kong
4
3
▼
Thailand
5
35
▲
Vietnam
6
41
▲
Switzerland
7
7
—
UAE
8
11
▲
Saudi Arabia
9
15
▲
Chile
10
22
▲
India
11
33
▲
Bangladesh
12
52
▲
South Africa
13
49
▲
New Zealand
14
17
▲
Russia
15
9
▼
Qatar
16
24
▲
Egypt
17
51
▲
Colombia
18
50
▲
Kazakhstan
19
38
▲
South Korea
20
28
▲
Singapore tops the ranking as the most attractive destination
for Chinese investors. Its appeal lies in its status as an
established global business hub, its cultural ties to China and
its neutrality in the tensions between China and the West. All
of these factors suggest lower operational risks for Chinese
companies and investors, who often encounter restrictions in
other countries. In addition, the affluent city state serves as a
headquarters for Chinese firms looking to tap into the rapidly
growing market of South-east Asia. Its acclaimed technological
expertise also offers research-and-development opportunities.
Altogether these factors render Hong Kong (ranked 4th)—a
special administrative region of China and another business hub
in Asia—less attractive in comparison. However, we highlight
the emergence of policy uncertainties as Singapore places more
emphasis on social inclusion, such as an increased focus on
wealth taxation and wage increases for low-income workers,
which could disproportionately affect certain industries.
South-east and South Asia have climbed steadily in our
ranking since 2013, reflecting the regions’ robust growth
outlook, growing middle class, abundant strategic natural
resources and relative openness towards Chinese investors.
As export hubs, many countries maintain strong supplychain ties with upstream Chinese suppliers, while benefiting
from reduced tariffs in key export markets downstream.
The attractiveness of Indonesia (2nd) stems from its nickel
reserves, abundant cheap labour and vast market size, while
Malaysia (3rd) and Thailand (5th) are enticing because of
their relatively established infrastructure and complementary
supply chains. The appeal of India (11th), which theoretically
offers significant opportunities, is hampered by strained
bilateral relations.
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
5
Investment
destination
2023
Rank
2013
Rank
2013-23
Change
Cambodia
21
N/A
—
Mexico
22
30
▲
Israel
23
31
▲
Ecuador
24
64
▲
Peru
25
42
▲
Germany
26
10
▼
Brazil
27
26
▼
US
28
1
▼
Austria
29
25
▼
France
30
20
▼
Sweden
31
13
▼
Australia
32
5
▼
Morocco
33
60
▲
Mongolia
34
N/A
—
Philippines
35
39
▲
Japan
36
4
▼
Ireland
37
N/A
—
Algeria
38
61
▲
Denmark
39
14
▼
Serbia
40
N/A
—
Pakistan
41
47
▲
Tanzania
42
N/A
—
Iran
43
57
▲
Azerbaijan
44
59
▲
Norway
45
8
▼
Papua New Guinea
46
N/A
—
Finland
47
16
▼
Netherlands
48
21
▼
Slovakia
49
N/A
—
Uzbekistan
50
N/A
—
The rising ranking of many emerging markets can be
attributed to their strong ties with China, natural resources,
market size and/or their pivotal role in the global supply chain.
China’s import diversification strategy dictates that it will
not rely on a single market for commodity supply, and a wide
range of well-endowed countries are therefore present, from
Latin American countries such as Chile (10th) to Middle
Eastern markets such as Qatar (16th). Mexico (22nd) is
notable for supply-chain opportunities tied to market access
in North America. However, its geographical distance and
less friendly bilateral relations, especially in comparison with
Asian economies, have prevented a further rise in the ranking.
Conversely, Turkey (72nd) has lost its allure for Chinese
investors because of an unpredictable foreign and economic
policy landscape.
The ranking of many advanced markets, including the US
(28th), Japan (36th), Canada (55th) and the UK (60th),
has plunged. Their deteriorating relations with China and
the subsequent screening of inbound investment present
significant hurdles for Chinese investors. Investment from
China in sensitive sectors such as advanced manufacturing
and telecommunications now faces heightened scrutiny.
Nonetheless, their unmatched market size, high income
levels, stable operational environments and prowess in
technology and innovation have ensured that they remain
attractive to investors in non-sensitive sectors. In this
context, Switzerland (7th) and New Zealand (14th)
distinguish themselves by remaining in the ranking’s top 20.
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
Investment
destination
2023
Rank
2013
Rank
2013-23
Change
Turkmenistan
51
N/A
—
Spain
52
29
▼
Angola
53
67
▲
Dominican Republic
54
55
▲
Canada
55
6
▼
Nigeria
56
66
▲
Portugal
57
40
▼
Ethiopia
58
N/A
—
Hungary
59
N/A
—
UK
60
19
▼
Poland
61
36
▼
Sri Lanka
62
46
▼
Zambia
63
N/A
—
Czech Republic
64
N/A
—
Italy
65
34
▼
Bolivia
66
N/A
—
Congo (DR)
67
N/A
—
Kenya
68
65
▼
Myanmar
69
N/A
—
Argentina
70
62
▼
Belgium
71
23
▼
Turkey
72
53
▼
Bulgaria
73
N/A
—
Romania
74
N/A
—
Taiwan
75
12
▼
Congo (Brazzaville)
76
N/A
—
Greece
77
56
▼
Iraq
78
N/A
—
Venezuela
79
58
▼
N/A
—
Ukraine
6
80
Risk considerations are very evident in the 2023 rankings.
The rankings for Russia (15th) and Iran (43rd) have
declined or stayed low as Chinese investors seek to avoid
the potential for secondary sanctions. Despite this, Russia
remains in the top 20 because of its resource endowment
and market size, particularly with the withdrawal of
Western companies leaving market gaps in sanctions-free
sectors. Central and Eastern European countries like
Poland (61st) have become less receptive to Chinese
investment, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
reignited concerns over European security. Many Central
Asian countries rank lower than other emerging markets,
given their less open markets and political volatility. Taiwan
(75th) experienced the steepest drop in ranking, as crossStrait relations have deteriorated to one of their lowest
points in recent decades. Controls on inbound Chinese
investment have tightened considerably.
Markets ranked at the bottom often face extreme
challenges in their business environment, because of
regional conflicts, local political upheaval and/or economic
collapse. For instance, hydrocarbon and agricultural
commodity investment opportunities in Ukraine (80th,
bottom), Venezuela (79th), and Myanmar (69th) have
been severely constrained by recent political and security
crises. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (67th),
the presidential election in 2023 serves as a flashpoint for
instability.
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
3. 2023 sub-rankings
We also provide sub-index rankings tailored to specific investor interests. By fine-tuning
indicator portfolios and adjusting their opportunity and risk weightings, we have identified the top 20
destinations for investors across various motivations. Methodology notes for these sub-rankings can be
found in Appendix 1.
Market expansion: the next billion consumers in Asia and Africa
We anticipate strong momentum behind
Most attractive destinations for market
Chinese enterprises going global, with
expansion investment
expansion set to be particularly evident in
Rank
Destination
consumer electronics, information technology
1
Indonesia
services (eg data centres, e-commerce and
2
Bangladesh
gaming), telecommunications, renewable
3
Vietnam
energy and automotive products, where China
4
Malaysia
has already been establishing its competitive
5
Pakistan
edge. Seeking external markets has long been
6
Cambodia
China’s ODI goal, but deteriorating relations with
7
Egypt
conventional export markets and slow domestic
8
India
9
Tanzania
growth have highlighted the urgency of finding
10
Colombia
alternative markets.
11
Russia
EIU nonetheless highlights risks
12
Ethiopia
associated with market entry, ranging from
13
US
local government policies towards imports
14
Angola
and investment to public opinion on China
15
Philippines
and Chinese products. Retail networks and
16
Nigeria
infrastructure, taxation policies and the ease of
17
Israel
profit repatriation are also prominent risks.
18
Brazil
Market expansion opportunities are more
19
Congo (DR)
prevalent in South-east and South Asia. We
20
Kenya
forecast that Indonesia and Bangladesh will
be among the top 20 global economies by 2040,
based on market size, economic growth and the potential of the aforementioned sectors. Favourable
industrial policies will also encourage firms to consider these markets as export bases. For example,
though not listed in the top 20, Thailand’s combination of supply- and demand-side incentives
for electric vehicles (EVs) is attracting Chinese automakers to position the country as their EV
manufacturing hub in the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN).
Africa’s market potential will be more pronounced in the late 2020s, with income and
economic resilience continuing to improve and the African Continental Free-Trade Area (AfCFTA)
7
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
gradually taking shape. Transport and logistics services remain a key weakness in plans to develop
better-connected regional markets, but—together with infrastructure development—they are sectors
with high potential.
Colombia stands out as one of the few Latin American countries in the top-ranked economies,
as a result of the aggressive green transition policy promoted by the president, Gustavo Petro.
However, Mr Petro’s weak position in the legislature points to the risk that none of his major reforms
will be passed before his term ends in August 2026. Changes in government could result in policy
discontinuity in the future.
India: the market that keeps China at
arm’s length
India—the most populous country in the world
and forecast by EIU to be one of the fastestgrowing economies in the 2020s—is the only
single market that offers a potential scale
comparable to that of China. Moreover, India relies
on China for key inputs, including electronics and
solar panel components, presenting a window of
opportunity for Chinese investors.
However, we expect India’s investment
environment to become increasingly
challenging for Chinese companies and
investors. Corruption and bureaucratic hurdles,
protectionist attitudes, challenges in land acquisition
and other operational risks have long posed
manufacturing supply chain, but the government’s
incentives to promote manufacturing in India will
be made available to Chinese players only on a
very limited basis. Merely forming joint ventures
( JVs) with Indian companies will not ensure the
circumvention of protectionist tendencies, and
subsidies granted to Indian-Chinese JVs will be
assessed on a case-by-case basis. Regulatory probes
targeting Chinese companies (such as two consumer
electronics brands, Xiaomi and Oppo) will continue
intermittently, whether based on allegations of tax
evasion, foreign-exchange violations or other legal
issues.
India's working-age population will grow
significantly over this decade
(change in working-age population between
2020 and 2030, m)
difficulties for foreign companies, regardless of their
origin. The strained relations between India and
China, which we forecast will characterise bilateral
Mainland China
interaction for the rest of the decade, introduce
-40.2
added geopolitical risks.
India’s emphasis on self-reliance and its
implicit competition with China point to a
India
Thailand
(-3.3)
113.5
hostile environment for Chinese investment.
Amid India’s continuing reliance on Chinese-
Sri Lanka
(0.2)
manufactured goods and components, the
country will aim to localise as much manufacturing
activity as possible. The South Asian giant is well
placed to benefit from geopolitical and economic
Vietnam
(2.8) 12.5 Philippines
Malaysia
(2.2)
18.2 Indonesia
Source: EIU.
trends that are driving the diversification of Asia’s
8
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
Supply-chain development: capturing friend-shoring and near-shoring trends
The sub-ranking for Supply-chain
Most attractive destinations for Supplydevelopment assesses the competitiveness
chain development investment
of different investment destinations as key
Rank
Destination
supply-chain nodes of Chinese manufacturers.
1
Singapore
However, we suggest that investors consider
2
Malaysia
the key operational risks associated with the
3
Thailand
investment destination, such as labour market
4
Indonesia
restrictions and disputes with major trading
5
Vietnam
partners. Financial risks, such as exchange-rate
6
Mexico
volatility and capital account convertibility, are
7
Egypt
8
Bangladesh
also instrumental.
9
Morocco
Beyond the natural “winners” of South-east
10
Cambodia
and South Asia, several Latin American and
11
South Africa
Eastern European countries stand out because
12
Chile
of their integration with North American
13
Philippines
and EU markets. Chinese manufacturers in
14
India
Mexico enjoy tariff-free exports to the US via
15
Hungary
the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
16
Brazil
Nonetheless, the long-term risk of the US
17
Poland
restricting imports from Chinese firms operating
18
Bulgaria
in Mexico could point to more opportunities in
19
Romania
other Latin American countries, such as Chile,
20
Turkey
which has strong resource endowment and a freetrade agreement with the US.
North Africa and Turkey (alongside the Balkans, though not listed in the top 20) are up-andcoming regions that could fill some of the gaps in low-value manufacturing, along with supplychain activities such as warehousing and logistics. Egypt has a diverse industrial foundation and a
focus on renewable energy which, combined with the strategic location of the Suez Canal, underscore
its potential as a green hydrogen logistics hub. However, the government’s slow progress in rolling
out hydrogen policies will lead to investment delays. The Balkans and Turkey, strategically situated
between Europe and the Middle East, also maintain relatively low labour and regulatory burdens
compared to the rest of Eastern Europe. However, Turkey’s economic outlook is hampered by soaring
inflation, exchange-rate issues and potential capital controls.
9
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
Manufacturers are moving to Mexico's border states, driving up real-estate demand
(% of of industrial space absorption of 2021)
Ciudad Juárez,
Chihuahua
17%
Tijuana, Baja
California
8%
Aguascalientes,
Aguascalientes
2%
40-50%
30-40%
20-30%
10-20%
0-10%
UNITED STATES
Coahuila
20%
Monterrey,
Nuevo León
45%
M EXICO
Toluca,
State of Mexico
2%
Guadalajara,
Jalisco
1%
Guanajuato,
Guanajuato
4%
BELIZE
GUATEMALA
Sources: Grupo Bursátil Mexicano (GBM), using data from CBRE; EIU.
Which South-east Asian country is
for you? Identifying the strengths
and weaknesses of each
When comparing various investment
destinations with similar rankings, a detailed
breakdown of risks is necessary. For instance,
for companies looking to establish manufacturing
plants in South-east Asia, both Vietnam and the
Philippines are appealing options because of their
low labour costs. However, their risk profiles differ.
Vietnam has significantly higher labour market
risks compared to the Philippines, due to the
former’s rising wages and lack of skilled labour.
10
Still, the Philippines’ restrictive labour regulations
could result in increased labour costs and greater
incentives for firms to remain informal. Conversely,
security risk is relatively high in the Philippines,
against the backdrop of significant drugs trade.
Ties with China are likely to deteriorate, with the
Philippines leaning closer to the US under the
current president, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.
Continual monitoring of risks will be
necessary for those who already have a
significant presence in a given economy. In
particular, risk scenario planning accelerates
response at the business level when emergencies
do occur.
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
Comparing operational risk in Vietnam and the Philippines
(EIU Operational Risk score, 100=high risk)
Vietnam
Philippines
Financial
70
Tax policy
Foreign trade & payments
60
50
40
30
20
10
Security
Government effectiveness
Political stability
Infrastructure
Macroeconomic
Labour market
Legal & regulatory
Note. As at Q1 2023.
Source: EIU Operational Risk.
Top five risk scenarios for businesses operating in Vietnam
Risk scenario
Risk category
Probability
Impact
Intensity
The government drastically increases rules-of-origin
enforcement actions
Foreign trade &
payments
High
High
16
Vietnam is hit by El Niño weather conditions
Macroeconomic
Very high
Moderate
15
A major domestic bank fails, forcing the government to
provide assistance
Financial
Moderate
High
12
Plans to expand the capacity of ports and airports suffer
multi-year delays
Infrastructure
High
Moderate
12
Security
Low
Very high
10
Territorial disputes in the South China Sea lead to an
outbreak of hostilities
Intensity colour key:
1-4
5-8
9-12
13-16
17-25
Note. Intensity is a product of the probability and impact ratings, where “Very low” scores 1 and “Very high” scores 5.
Source: EIU Operational Risk.
11
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
Natural resources: why Central Asia stands out, and why African countries
vary in their appeal
China’s interest in natural resource
Most attractive destinations for natural
investments has evolved to become more
resources investment
systemic. The strategy to diversify imports has
Rank
Destination
become increasingly evident, as has competition
1
Indonesia
for mine exploitation and pricing rights. Priorities
2
Australia
have shifted, with agricultural commodities and
3
Saudi Arabia
strategic minerals like lithium, cobalt and nickel
4
UAE
now taking precedence over coal.
5
Qatar
For long-term mining projects, EIU
6
Brazil
advises companies to monitor closely risks
7
Chile
related to political instability, regulatory
8
Kazakhstan
uncertainty, environmental protection
9
Vietnam
policies, infrastructure deficiencies and
10
Iran
foreign reserve coverage for capital
11
Russia
12
Canada
goods imports. The emergence of resource
13
India
nationalism can take various forms, including
14
Philippines
escalated taxation, changing licensing and equity
15
Turkmenistan
requirements and the imposition of export
16
US
restrictions. Bilateral relations are increasingly
17
Argentina
influential, with countries such as Canada limiting
18
Nigeria
Chinese investments. High-profile projects are
19
Congo (DR)
also vulnerable to the whims of the election
20
Iraq
cycle, during which concerns about resource
exploitation and “debt-trap” narratives might arise.
Beyond the obvious choices of oil- and gas-rich Gulf countries, strong bilateral ties and
geopolitical proximity have rendered Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan attractive to Chinese
investors. Only a few African countries rank among the top 20 investment destinations, largely
because of the aforementioned operational risks in many African countries. In addition, while
China has expanded its reach across the continent’s mining sector, it still plays a minor role compared
to regional giants and Western-aligned multinational mining companies, with incumbents likely to
retain a dominant position.
12
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
Monitoring the 2023-24 election cycle in Africa
Tunisia
Morocco
Algeria
Libya
Egypt
Cabo Verde
Mauritania
Mali
Senegal
Niger
Sudan
Eritrea
The Gambia
Chad
Burkina Faso
GuineaDjibouti
Guinea
Bissau
Nigeria
Sierra Leone
Ethiopia
Central
South
Liberia
Somalia
Cameroon African Sudan
Côte d’Ivoire
Republic
Rwanda Uganda
Ghana
Kenya
Togo
Gabon Democratic
Benin
Republic
Seychelles
São Tomé & Príncipe
of Congo
Tanzania
Equatorial Guinea
Burundi
Congo (Brazzaville)
Comoros
Malawi
Angola
Zambia
Election for head of state and/or
national legislature in ...
2023
Madagascar
Zimbabwe
Namibia Botswana
Mozambique
2024
Eswatini
South
Africa
Lesotho
Mauritius
Source: EIU.
Mapping Chinese mineral investment in Africa
(2021)
Tunisia
Morocco
Algeria
Cabo Verde Mauritania
Mali
Fe
Niger
Senegal
Li
Sudan Eritrea
Cu Zn Au Ag
The Gambia
U
Chad
Au
Guinea- Guinea Burkina Faso
Au
Nigeria
Bissau Bx Fe
Ethiopia
Djibouti
Sierra Leone
Côte
Li
Central South Au Fe
Fe Au Liberia d’Ivoire
Cameroon African Sudan
Fe
Au Mn
Somalia
Benin Fe Au
Ghana
Democratic
Kenya
Bx Au Togo
Gabon
Uganda Au
Mn Fe Au
Republic
Seychelles
Fe
Congo (Brazzaville)
of Congo
Cu Co Ct Au Tanzania
Rwanda
Major mineral locations
Malawi
Angola
Zambia
Bx Bauxite
Li Lithium
Comoros
Dd
Cu Co
Cl Coal
Mn Manganese
Zimbabwe
Madagascar
Co Cobalt
Ni Nickel
Li Ni Dd
Namibia
Au
Ct Coltan/TantalumPt Platinum
Li U Botswana Mozambique
Ag Silver
Cu Copper
C Ti Cl
Dd Diamond
Ti Titanium
Mauritius
South
Au Gold
U Uranium
Dd
Lesotho
Africa
C Graphite
Zn Zinc
Au Cu Bx Pt
Fe Iron ore
Source: EIU.
13
Countries in receipt of
Chinese investment
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
Technology and innovation: focusing on non-critical IP in the West
Technology acquisition used to be a key
reason for Chinese companies to go global,
but it now constitutes a small share of ODI,
as technological competition with the West
intensifies. Although this sub-ranking is aimed
at identifying markets with strong innovation
capacity, acquisitions have become exceedingly
challenging. We nonetheless retain the ranking
to assist investors in non-sensitive industries in
finding investment destinations. For example,
Chinese game developers such as Tencent and
Netease have maintained their investment
activity in gaming studios in Europe, Japan and
South Korea. For European countries, we
advise investors to assess their investment risks
based on the implementation of EU regulations
on investment screening, and those on foreign
subsidies in merger-and-acquisition deals.
14
Most attractive destinations for technology
and innovation investment
Rank
Destination
1
Singapore
2
South Korea
3
Switzerland
4
Germany
5
Israel
6
Japan
7
Austria
8
Sweden
9
France
10
Denmark
11
Netherlands
12
Finland
13
US
14
United Kingdom
15
Norway
16
Italy
17
Belgium
18
Australia
19
Spain
20
Canada
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
4. Balancing opportunities and risks
The mixed record of Chinese ODI over the last decade underscores the importance of
anticipating the risks associated with entering a foreign country. The Chinese government has
increasingly emphasised the “rationalisation” of overseas investment; the prioritisation of “small and
beautiful” projects in the BRI is part of this drive. In our monitoring of Chinese ODI trends, we have
recognised that risk tolerance has declined among many Chinese investors.
Recognising different levels of risk tolerance and management capacity among investors,
we have supplemented the ranking with an opportunity/risk matrix—a tool designed to
categorise markets into various groups. The matrix does not aim to indoctrinate one set of
investment guidelines, nor does it intend to provide sets of white or black lists. Instead, all shortlisted
Destinations with
few opportunities and high risk
Destinations with
more opportunities but high risk
High risk
Taiwan
Ukraine
Venezuela
United States
Greece
BG
TR
Congo (DR)
RO
KE
BE
Canada
Congo (Brazzaville)
GB
MM
PL
CZ
HU
IR
IT ET NG
Philippines
Argentina
BO
ES
UZ
IE
DO
Brazil
PT
Russia
Zambia
TM PK
JP
FI
Few
AO
South Korea
AZ
AU
NL
opportunities
DZ
SK
NO
Germany
PG TZ
Sri Lanka
MA Mexico
IL
YG DK
FR
KH
MN SE KZ EG
Bangladesh
CO
AT
QA
Vietnam
Ecuador
PE
Iraq
New Zealand
ZA
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Switzerland
Chile
Thailand
Destinations with
less risk but few opportunities
Hong Kong
India
More
opportunities
Indonesia
Malaysia
Singapore
Destinations with
more opportunities and less risk
Low risk
15
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
economies are popular destinations for Chinese investment, and the matrix aims to indicate their
relative opportunities and risks, as well as the possibility of leveraging EIU forecasts and ratings to
evaluate market appeal quantitatively and to forecast the opportunities and risks that lie ahead.
Destinations with more
opportunities and less risk
Destinations with less risk
but few opportunities
Destinations with more
opportunities but high risk
Destinations with few
opportunities and high risk
BD
AT
Austria
DZ
AO
Chile
Bangladesh
KH
Cambodia
CL
CO
Colombia
DK Denmark
EG
Egypt
EC
FR
France
HK Hong Kong
Ecuador
Algeria
Angola
AU Australia
AR
Argentina
BR
AZ
Azerbaijan
Brazil
BG Bulgaria
BE
Belgium
CA
BO
Bolivia
Canada
DE
Germany
MN Mongolia
CD Congo (DR)
CG
Congo (Brazzaville)
ID
Indonesia
NZ New Zealand
ET
CZ
Czech Republic
Ethiopia
IL
Israel
PG Papua New Guinea
HU Hungary
DO
Dominican Republic
KZ
Kazakhstan
PE
IN
FI
Finland
Peru
India
MY
Malaysia
YG Serbia
IR
Iran
GR
Greece
MX
Mexico
TZ
IE
Ireland
IQ
Iraq
MA
Morocco
JP
Japan
IT
Italy
Tanzania
QA
Qatar
NG Nigeria
KE
Kenya
SA
Saudi Arabia
PK
MM
Myanmar
Pakistan
SG
Singapore
PH
Philippines
NL
Netherlands
ZA
South Africa
PL
Poland
NO
Norway
SE
Sweden
RU
Russia
PT
Portugal
CH
Switzerland
KR
South Korea
RO
Romania
Spain
TH
Thailand
ES
AE
UAE
TW Taiwan
VN
Vietnam
16
TR
SK
Slovakia
LK
Sri Lanka
Turkey
UA
Ukraine
TM Turkmenistan
VE
Venezuela
GB UK
ZM
Zambia
US
US
UZ
Uzbekistan
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
Appendix 1: methodology notes
Main ranking
The decision on what opportunities and risks to include under the two pillars of opportunity
and risk is based on factors that Chinese firms and EIU identify as crucial in their decisionmaking process. We have pinpointed four motivations for which Chinese companies “go global”:
market expansion, supply-chain development, natural resources and technology and innovation. The
risk considerations include a country’s bilateral relations with China and the operational and financial
risks to general foreign investors. The latter two are based respectively on our Operational Risk and
Financial Risk ratings.
Within these categories of opportunity and risk, we have selected a series of around 200
forward-looking quantitative indicators. The full list can be found in Appendix 3. All indicators are
compiled into category scores and ranking. They are then aggregated to form scores for each of the
two pillars (opportunity and risk).
Finally, these pillar scores are combined to generate the overall China Going Global Investment
Index score for each investment destination. The ranking is based on the scores, in descending order.
When solely considering investment
opportunities, the US, Indonesia
and Russia are appealing to Chinese
companies. Hong Kong, on the
other hand, does not offer many
opportunities.
However, Hong Kong is less risky for
Chinese investors. Indonesia presents
moderate operational and financial
risks, but its ties with China are solid.
Russia is under Western sanctions,
while the US has a fraught relationship
with China.
Indonesia ranks highly in our ranking
because of its good balance of
opportunities and risks. Risk considerations
have made the US and Russia less
attractive to Chinese companies and
investors. Hong Kong ranks highly, largely
because it is a low-risk market.
Rank
Destinations with
most opportunities
Rank
Destinations
that are least risky
Rank
A balanced
approach
1
India
1
Singapore
1
Singapore
2
US
2
Hong Kong
2
Indonesia
3
Indonesia
3
Malaysia
3
Malaysia
4
Russia
4
Thailand
4
Hong Kong
5
Vietnam
5
Chile
5
Thailand
6
South Korea
6
Indonesia
6
Vietnam
7
Philippines
7
Switzerland
7
Switzerland
8
Bangladesh
8
New Zealand
8
UAE
9
Brazil
9
UAE
9
Saudi Arabia
10
Taiwan
10
South Africa
10
˸
˸
Chile
˸
15
˸
Russia
˸
28
US
˸
45
Russia
˸
68
Hong Kong
˸
77
US
˸
17
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
Sub-rankings
We have singled out the top 20 investment destinations under each of the four motivations:
market expansion, supply-chain extension, natural resources exploration and technology
acquisition. We first selected winners that ranked the highest by opportunities, and then re-ranked
the 20 economies, factoring in risk factors such as sanctions, conflicts and exchange-rate volatility.
Using the natural resources ranking as an example, Russia and Australia offer the most natural
resources investment opportunities for Chinese companies and investors, but their ranking drops after
operational and bilateral relation risks are taken into consideration.
18
Rank
Top 20 destinations with the most
natural resources opportunities
Rank
Re-ranked after factoring in
their risk ranking
1
Russia
1
Indonesia
2
Australia
2
Australia
3
Brazil
3
Saudi Arabia
4
Iran
4
UAE
5
Indonesia
5
Qatar
6
Canada
6
Brazil
7
Qatar
7
Chile
8
Saudi Arabia
8
Kazakhstan
9
Congo (DR)
9
Vietnam
10
US
10
Iran
11
India
11
Russia
12
Vietnam
12
Canada
13
Turkmenistan
13
India
14
Iraq
14
Philippines
15
UAE
15
Turkmenistan
16
Argentina
16
US
17
Kazakhstan
17
Argentina
18
Philippines
18
Nigeria
19
Nigeria
19
Congo (DR)
20
Chile
20
Iraq
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
Appendix 2: full ranking
Investment
destination
19
2023
Rank
2013
Rank
2023 Opportunity
Rank
2023 Risk
Rank*
Singapore
1
2
19
1
Indonesia
2
44
3
6
Malaysia
3
18
11
3
Hong Kong
4
3
68
2
Thailand
5
35
17
4
Vietnam
6
41
5
14
Switzerland
7
7
25
7
UAE
8
11
28
9
Saudi Arabia
9
15
27
11
Chile
10
22
65
5
India
11
33
1
63
Bangladesh
12
52
8
18
South Africa
13
49
46
10
New Zealand
14
17
63
8
Russia
15
9
4
45
Qatar
16
24
33
15
Egypt
17
51
24
19
Colombia
18
50
35
17
Kazakhstan
19
38
29
20
South Korea
20
28
6
42
Cambodia
21
N/A
21
22
Mexico
22
30
22
24
Israel
23
31
20
25
Ecuador
24
64
73
12
Peru
25
42
48
13
Germany
26
10
14
32
Brazil
27
26
9
43
US
28
1
2
77
Austria
29
25
62
16
France
30
20
34
29
Sweden
31
13
43
23
Australia
32
5
18
36
Morocco
33
60
38
26
Mongolia
34
N/A
56
21
Philippines
35
39
7
57
Japan
36
4
12
50
Ireland
37
N/A
15
48
Algeria
38
61
26
39
Denmark
39
14
59
27
Serbia
40
N/A
60
28
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
Investment
destination
2023
Rank
2013
Rank
2023 Opportunity
Rank
2023 Risk
Rank*
Pakistan
41
47
23
47
Tanzania
42
N/A
64
30
Iran
43
57
13
60
Azerbaijan
44
59
50
38
Norway
45
8
57
35
Papua New Guinea
46
N/A
74
31
Finland
47
16
52
40
Netherlands
48
21
61
37
Slovakia
49
N/A
72
34
Uzbekistan
50
N/A
36
52
Turkmenistan
51
N/A
42
51
Spain
52
29
41
53
Angola
53
67
71
41
Dominican Republic
54
55
54
46
Canada
55
6
16
70
Nigeria
56
66
40
56
Portugal
57
40
69
49
Ethiopia
58
N/A
45
59
Hungary
59
N/A
44
62
UK
60
19
30
66
Poland
61
36
39
64
Sri Lanka
62
46
80
33
Zambia
63
N/A
76
44
Czech Republic
64
N/A
58
61
Italy
65
34
67
58
Bolivia
66
N/A
70
55
Congo (DR)
67
N/A
31
71
Kenya
68
65
47
67
Myanmar
69
N/A
55
65
Argentina
70
62
78
54
Belgium
71
23
49
68
Turkey
72
53
32
74
Bulgaria
73
N/A
37
75
Romania
74
N/A
51
72
Taiwan
75
12
10
80
Congo (Brazzaville)
76
N/A
79
69
Greece
77
56
53
76
Iraq
78
N/A
75
73
Venezuela
79
58
66
78
Ukraine
80
N/A
77
79
* The higher the risk ranking, the lower the risk.
20
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
Appendix 3: full list of indicators
Opportunity
Category
Sub-category
Market expansion
Market size &
growth
Targeted industry
Natural resources
Food & grains
Fossil fuel
Industrial metals
21
Indicators
Primary source
Reference period
Real GDP (% change, year on year)
EIU forecast or
estimates
2023-27
Private consumption (% real change, year
on year)
EIU forecast or
estimates
2023-27
Gross fixed investment (% real change, year
on year)
EIU forecast or
estimates
2023-27
Nominal GDP
EIU forecast or
estimates
2023-27
Total population
EIU forecast or
estimates
2023
Population (% change, year on year)
EIU forecast or
estimates
2023-27
Personal disposable income (per head)
EIU forecast or
estimates
2023
Personal disposable income (% real change,
year on year)
EIU forecast or
estimates
2023-27
Mobile broadband subscriptions (% change,
year on year)
EIU forecast or
estimates
2019-25*
IT services spending (US$; % change, year
on year)
EIU forecast or
estimates
2019-25*
Healthcare expenditure (US$; % change,
year on year)
EIU forecast or
estimates
2019-25*
Solar/wind/other alternative energy
consumption (% change, year on year)
EIU forecast or
estimates
2019-25*
Gross electricity consumption (% change,
year on year)
EIU forecast or
estimates
2019-25*
New passenger car registration (% change,
year on year)
EIU forecast or
estimates
2019-25*
New commerical vehicle registration (%
change, year on year)
EIU forecast or
estimates
2019-25*
New electric vehicle registration (% change,
year on year)
EIU forecast or
estimates
2023-27
Arable land (per head)
FAO
2020
Net food exports
FAO
2021
Proven coal reserves
EIA
2021
Proven natural gas reserves
EIA
2021
Proven oil reserves
EIA
2021
Copper (reserves)
USGS
2022
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
Opportunity
Category
Technology &
innovation
Sub-category
Innovation input
Innovation output
Supply-chain
development
Industrial
readiness
Input cost
Labour
environment
Infrastructure
22
Indicators
Primary source
Reference period
Iron ore (reserves)
USGS
2022
Lthium (identified resources)
USGS
2022
Cobalt (reserves)
USGS
2022
Nickel (reserves)
USGS
2022
Rare-earth (reserves)
USGS
2022
R&D researchers (full-time equivalent; per
million)
UNESCO
Latest available
Gross domestic expenditure on R&D (% of
GDP)
UNESCO
Latest available
School life expectancy (primary to tertiary
education)
World Bank
2021
Relative knowledge intensity of the economy OEC
2021
Patent applications (domestic and abroad)
WIPO
2019-21
H-index
SCImago
2022
Number of brands in top 500
Brand Finance
2023
Manufacturing as % of GDP
World Bank
Latest available
FDI inflows as % of GDP
EIU forecast or
estimates
2023-27
FDI inflows total
EIU forecast or
estimates
2023-27
Labour cost
EIU forecast or
estimates
2023
Business electricity prices
Global petrol
prices
September 2022
Linear regression between overall unit labour EIU forecast or
cost growth and nominal GDP growth
estimates
2023-27
Working age population
EIU estimates
2021
Working age population (% of total)
EIU estimates
2021
Infrastructure risk score (including power,
port and logistics, road, air and rail transport, EIU Operational
telecoms and IT, cybersecurity and weather Risk
resilience)
March 2023
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
Opportunity
Category
Sub-category
Indicators
Primary source
Reference period
Export opportunity
Applied weighted tariff faced in major
markets
WTO
2022
Distance from the closest of China's largest
export markets (EU, US and Japan)
CEPII
N/A
China's largest export markets (EU, US and
Japan), or trade agreement with them
US, EU and Japan
March 2023
Number of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy
cases brought by large markets per US$ m
of imports
WTO and IMF
2013-22
Number of regional trade agreements
notified to the WTO and in force
WTO
March 2023
Risk
Category
Sub-category
Indicators
Primary source
Reference period
Bilateral relations
with China
Distance & cultural
relations
Distance from China
EIU scoring; CEPII
N/A
Traveller volume
EIU scoring; OAG;
FlightsFrom.com
July 2023
Public perception of China
EIU scoring; Pew
Latest available
Ethnic Chinese population
EIU scoring;
national sources
Latest available
Chinese language use
EIU scoring;
national sources
N/A
Belt and Road Initiative membership
NDRC
March 2023
Membership of selected regional and
multilateral institutions
EIU scoring
March 2023
Alignment on international affairs at UN
General Assembly
EIU scoring; Erik
Voeten
Latest available
Historical militarised disputes
EIU scoring;
Correlates of War
Since 1949
Militarised disputes
EIU scoring;
Correlates of War
March 2023
Political &
geopolitical
relations
Trade relations
23
Membership of selected security institutions EIU scoring
June 2023
Bilateral trade with China (% of the country's EIU scoring; GAC*
total trade)
2013-22
Bilateral tade agreement in force and/or
RCEP membership
EIU scoring;
MofCOM
March 2023
Anti-dumping and anti-subsidy cases
against China per US$ m of imports from
China
EIU scoring; WTO
2012-22
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
CHINA GOING GLOBAL INVESTMENT INDEX 2023
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’S SECOND DECADE
Risk
Category
Sub-category
Investment
relations
Indicators
Primary source
Reference period
WTO dispute settlement cases against
China
EIU scoring; WTO
March 2023
Troubled investments
EIU scoring; AEI
2005-22
and The Heritage
Foundation
EIU scoring; World March 2023
Bank
Bilateral investment treaty in force
Contracted project value
EIU scoring;
2013-19
MofCOM
EIU Operational &
Financial Risks†
EIU Operational
Risk
EIU Financial Risk
Political stability risk score
EIU Operational
Risk
March 2023
Security risk score
EIU Operational
Risk
March 2023
Government effectiveness risk score
EIU Operational
Risk
March 2023
Legal & regulatory risk score
EIU Operational
Risk
March 2023
Macroeconomic risk score
EIU Operational
Risk
March 2023
Foreign trade & payments risk score
EIU Operational
Risk
March 2023
Financial risk score
EIU Operational
Risk
March 2023
Tax policy risk score
EIU Operational
Risk
March 2023
Labour market risk score
EIU Operational
Risk
March 2023
Infrastructure risk score
EIU Operational
Risk
March 2023
Soverign risk score
EIU Financial Risk
April 2023
Currency risk score
EIU Financial Risk
April 2023
Banking sector risk score
EIU Financial Risk
April 2023
Political risk score
EIU Financial Risk
April 2023
Economic structure risk score
EIU Financial Risk
April 2023
* Historical data compiled based on data from national sources and international organisations.
† The scores under EIU Operational Risk and Financial Risk are a simplified representation of 129 indicators.
24
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2023
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