LATINFOCUS
CONSENSUSFORECAST
Latin America • September 2023
SUMMARY
2
NEWS IN FOCUS
7
CALENDAR
20
ARGENTINA
21
BRAZIL
37
CHILE
53
COLOMBIA
69
MEXICO
85
PERU
101
VENEZUELA
116
OTHER COUNTRIES
124
BOLIVIA
124
ECUADOR
127
PARAGUAY
135
URUGUAY
138
NOTES
PUBLICATION DATE 12 September 2023
FORECASTS COLLECTED 5 September - 7 September 2023
INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 7 September 2023
NEXT EDITION 10 October 2023
145
Contributors
OLIVER REYNOLDS
LATIN AMERICA SENIOR ECONOMIST
ARNE POHLMAN
Chief Economist
THOMAS FENGE
Head of Data Solutions
JOAN ARGILAGÓS
Head of Data Analysis
MASSIMO BASSETTI
Senior Economist
HANNAH TAYLOR
Editor
ALEXANDER RITUERTO
Junior Data Analyst
ALMANAS STANAPEDIS
Senior Economist
BENCE VÁRADI
Development Team Lead
BORJA VALERO
Junior Data Analyst
MARTA CASANOVAS
Economist
MAR LOBATO
Data Quality Coordinator
INÉS DRAAIJER
Research Assistant
MATTHEW CUNNINGHAM
Economist
PAOLA TIRANZONI
Data Solutions Specialist
PAU ROMERO
Research Assistant
ALEJANDRO LÓPEZ
Economist
ÒSCAR BUSQUETS
Junior Data Scientist
ALINA PETRYK
Partnerships Manager
STEFAN POSEA
Economist
JAN LEYVA
Junior Data Scientist
MAGDALENA PRESHLENOVA ALBERT NAVARRO
Economist
Junior Data Scientist
ADRIÀ SOLANES
Economist
© FocusEconomics 2023
ISSN 2013-4975
MARTA OLIVA
Junior Data Analyst
Summary
September 2023
Summary
Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Latin America
World
United States
Euro Area
China
Japan
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Centam & Carib.
2020
-2.5
-2.8
-6.2
2.2
-4.2
-6.6
-6.1
-8.7
-4.6
-9.9
-3.3
-0.8
-6.3
-29.6
-8.7
-8.7
-7.3
-7.8
-11.0
-7.4
Real GDP, annual variation in %
2021
2022
2023
6.2
3.0
2.6
5.9
2.1
1.7
5.5
3.4
0.6
8.4
3.0
5.2
2.2
1.0
1.5
7.2
3.8
1.8
11.7
2.4
-0.2
5.8
3.9
2.7
6.2
3.4
1.3
10.7
5.0
-2.8
5.0
2.9
2.4
4.0
0.1
4.3
5.3
4.9
1.3
0.5
11.8
3.0
10.4
4.9
1.5
6.1
3.5
2.3
11.0
7.3
1.4
4.2
2.9
1.8
13.3
2.7
1.3
7.5
4.7
2.8
2024
2.4
0.8
1.0
4.6
1.0
1.6
1.9
1.8
1.1
-0.8
1.4
3.9
2.7
3.5
2.1
2.4
1.8
1.8
2.6
2.8
Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in %
World
United States
Euro Area
China
Japan
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Centam & Carib.
2020
-9.3
-14.9
-7.1
-6.2
-9.1
-8.4
-7.3
-2.8
-12.0
-8.4
-13.3
-6.1
-5.2
-5.0
-8.3
-12.7
-7.8
-7.1
-8.9
-7.5
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP
2021
2022
2023
-6.3
-3.9
-4.4
-12.3
-5.5
-5.6
-5.3
-3.6
-3.4
-3.8
-4.7
-4.8
-6.2
-6.4
-6.2
-4.1
-3.5
-4.9
-7.7
1.1
-2.2
-2.8
-3.2
-3.8
-4.1
-4.4
-6.8
-3.6
-3.8
-4.4
-4.3
-4.6
-7.8
-3.6
-3.0
-2.4
-3.5
-3.2
-2.7
-4.6
-6.0
-5.4
-4.8
-3.4
-3.4
-9.3
-7.3
-6.6
-7.0
-5.3
-4.3
-1.6
0.1
-1.5
-2.5
-1.7
-2.4
-3.9
-2.2
-2.6
2020
2.5
1.2
0.3
2.5
0.0
6.4
3.0
3.4
11.0
42.0
3.2
1.8
9.8
2,355
1.7
0.9
2.5
-0.3
1.8
2.1
Consumer Prices, variation in %
2021
2022
2023
4.0
8.0
6.0
4.7
8.0
4.1
2.6
8.4
5.6
0.9
2.0
1.0
-0.2
2.5
2.9
10.0
15.6
17.1
4.5
11.6
7.8
5.7
7.9
5.6
17.0
24.2
30.4
48.4
72.4
124.5
8.3
9.3
4.8
4.8
9.8
5.0
7.7
9.1
6.5
1,589
187
346
3.0
7.9
8.0
0.7
1.7
2.9
3.5
10.2
11.5
0.1
3.5
2.4
4.0
7.9
6.5
3.9
7.6
4.6
2024
4.5
2.6
2.7
1.9
1.8
16.9
3.7
4.1
32.8
152.0
4.2
3.7
6.2
149
4.4
4.1
5.8
2.6
3.4
3.3
Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %
2024
-4.0
-5.6
-2.8
-4.4
-4.2
-4.4
-2.1
-3.6
-5.9
-2.6
-6.9
-1.8
-1.8
-4.9
-3.3
-6.1
-4.2
-1.7
-2.3
-2.5
2020
0.0
-2.8
1.7
1.7
3.0
-0.2
-1.9
2.0
-1.3
0.7
-1.9
2.0
-0.8
-1.6
-0.8
-0.1
-3.4
2.2
1.1
0.5
Current Account, % of GDP
2021
2022
2023
0.0
0.0
0.0
-3.6
-3.8
-3.2
2.8
-0.8
1.7
2.0
2.2
1.7
3.9
2.1
2.4
-1.9
-2.6
-1.8
-7.3
-9.0
-3.2
-0.6
-1.2
-1.0
-1.9
-2.4
-2.1
1.4
-0.7
-1.9
-2.8
-2.8
-2.1
-0.8
-6.7
-1.0
-2.5
-3.5
-3.1
1.0
1.2
0.5
-2.8
-3.9
-2.3
2.2
-0.4
-2.1
-5.6
-6.3
-3.9
2.9
1.9
1.2
-2.2
-4.1
-1.7
-1.2
-1.7
-1.4
2024
0.0
-3.1
1.9
1.3
2.7
-1.6
-3.4
-0.9
-1.7
0.6
-2.3
-0.9
-1.9
0.9
-2.3
-2.4
-3.7
0.5
-1.4
-1.2
Note: Latin America, Mercosur and World estimates exclude Venezuela.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
|2
Summary
Economic Outlook
September 2023
GDP Variation in % Change in Forecast
Latin America’s GDP growth will be below half its 2022 level this
year on tight monetary policy and drought in some countries.
However, forecasts have been revised up recently, and a tourism
recovery, strong remittances from the U.S. and a bumper harvest
in Brazil will provide support. Sociopolitical unrest and a further
economic slowdown in China pose downside risks.
Argentina is poised to be Latin America’s worst-performing
economy this year, rocked by FX controls, hyperinflation, drought
and sky-high interest rates. Higher visitor arrivals and rising
energy output from the Vaca Muerta field will lend some support.
Risks are skewed to the downside and include a further collapse
of the currency, debt default and political instability.
Our panelists have once again upgraded their 2023 GDP forecasts
over the last month, likely due to a stronger-than-anticipated
economic expansion in Q2. Growth is now seen slowing only
slightly from 2022 this year as lower interest rates, softer inflation,
fiscal stimulus, a lower unemployment rate and a bumper harvest
will all support activity.
GDP is seen shrinking marginally overall in 2023, though a
recovery should take hold in H2 and heading into 2024 as inflation
and interest rates fall. A further economic deterioration in China
is a downside risk. The outcome of December’s constitutional
referendum and the government’s proposed reforms to boost
pensions, taxes and public spending are key factors to watch.
GDP growth will fall far below its 10-year pre-pandemic average
of 3.7% this year. This will be due to double-digit inflation and a
rising policy rate. Growth will be further hurt by weaker exports.
Key factors to watch include the President’s policies and El Niño,
which could stoke inflation and hurt agricultural GDP.
Economic growth should substantially outperform the Latin
American average in 2023 thanks to healthy private consumption
growth, rising car production, resilient goods exports to the U.S.
and investment by firms looking to shift production closer to the
U.S. market. GDP forecasts could be revised up further going
forward in light of strong recent data.
The pace of GDP expansion will decelerate notably this year from
2022. Sticky inflation and tighter financing conditions will constrain
domestic activity. Additionally, the external sector will suffer from
the effects of global headwinds. El Niño-associated weather
events and the re-emergence of social unrest amid political
uncertainty pose downside risks.
Note: Change in forecast refers to 2023.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
|3
September 2023
Summary
Inflation
Inflation in %
Change in Forecast
Regional inflation declined to 15.5% in July from 15.7% in June,
and most countries that have reported data saw price pressures
dip in August. On aggregate, regional inflation is seen rising from
current levels by year-end. However, this is mainly due to FX
weakness in Argentina; most countries should see declining or
broadly stable inflation from now through to end-2023.
Inflation dropped to 113.4% in July from 115.6% in June, which
had marked the highest rate in the current series. Inflation will
surge this year relative to 2022, stoked by a collapsing peso amid
monetary financing of the fiscal deficit. Faster-than-expected peso
depreciation and fiscal largesse ahead of the October elections
are key upside risks.
In July, inflation rose to a three-month high of 4.0% (June: 3.2%),
surpassing the Central Bank (BCB)’s 3.25% target for this year
and overshooting market expectations. Inflation will pick up in the
remainder of 2023 from current levels due to lower interest rates,
a weaker real, fiscal stimulus and higher fuel prices—with the
latter partly due to the recent reinstatement of a federal tax.
Inflation came in at 6.5% in July (June: 7.6%), the lowest rate since
October 2021 but still more than double the Central Bank’s 3.0%
target. Inflation should fall further later this year but will remain
above the Bank’s target amid monetary easing, recent peso
weakening and an uptick in oil prices. Inflation is only expected to
fall close to target towards end-2024.
Inflation eased to 11.4% in August from 11.8% in July. It should
continue to cool ahead as domestic demand weakens and the
base effect toughens. That said, inflation is seen remaining above
the Central Bank’s 2.0–4.0% target even at the end of 2024. Key
factors to watch include commodity prices, fiscal stimulus and the
strength of the peso.
Inflation fell to 4.6% in August from July’s 4.8%, the lowest rate
since February 2021. Our panelists expect inflation to average
slightly above the upper bound of the Central Bank’s 2.0–4.0%
target range in H2 and through most of 2024, fueled by robust
economic activity, the recent uptick in global oil prices, brisk wage
growth and an expected weakening of the peso.
Inflation came in at 5.6% in August, down from July’s 5.9%.
Inflation will continue its downtrend ahead this year, curbed by
previous monetary policy hikes and improved supply conditions.
Upside risks stem from an expansionary fiscal stance and the
threat posed to agricultural output by El Niño.
Note: Change in forecast refers to 2023. Inflation figures for 2023 refer to AOP.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
|4
Summary
Monetary Policy
Interest rate in %
September 2023
Change in Forecast
In August–September, the central banks of Brazil, Chile, Paraguay
and Uruguay cut their policy rates in response to falling inflation,
while Argentina’s Central Bank jacked up rates to protect the
currency. Further monetary easing is forecast in most economies
in the region before end-2023, although interest rates in Argentina
are likely to rise further to control prices.
On 14 August, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) hiked the
LELIQ rate to 118.0% from 97.00% in a bid to support a plummeting
peso. The BCRA acts in coordination with the Ministry of Economy
to reduce monetary financing of the budget deficit. Rates are seen
rising further ahead to tame price pressures.
At its latest meeting on 1–2 August, the BCB kicked off its loosening
cycle more aggressively than markets had anticipated, delivering
a 50 basis point cut that lowered the SELIC rate to 13.25%. The
Bank hinted it would make a same-size cut when it next convenes
on 19–20 September. Our panelists see between 25–200 basis
points of additional cuts by year-end.
The Central Bank cut interest rates by 75 basis points to 9.50%
on 5 September and hinted at more cuts going forward due to its
expectation of a further decline in inflation ahead. The Consensus
is for over 150 basis points of additional easing by end-2023,
though there is a 175 basis point spread among end-of-year policy
rate forecasts.
On 31 July, the Central Bank held its benchmark interest rate at
13.25%—the highest level since 1999—for the second consecutive
month. The Bank’s next meeting is set for 29 September. The
Consensus is for the Bank to reduce the benchmark rate by
roughly 125 basis points from its current level by end-2023.
Unexpectedly sticky core inflation is an upside risk.
On 10 August, Banxico left the overnight interbank interest rate
target at 11.25%, following a similar hold in June. The Bank
repeated its intention to “maintain the reference rate at its current
level for an extended period”. Most panelists see Banxico starting
to loosen its monetary stance in Q4 2023, though some see rates
unchanged through year-end.
At its 10 August meeting, the Central Bank of Peru kept its key
policy interest rate at 7.75%—where it has been since January.
The decision was driven by declining headline inflation, core
inflation and inflation expectations. Our panel expects the Bank to
cut rates later this year as inflation gradually moderates.
Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %. For rate details please see country page.
Change in forecast refers to 2023.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
|5
Summary
Exchange Rate
Variation in %
September 2023
Change in Forecast
Most regional currencies lost ground against the USD over the
last month, with the currencies of Argentina and Venezuela once
again recording the largest losses. In contrast, the Uruguayan
peso strengthened. Regional currencies will be weaker year on
year at end-2023; the most notable depreciations are seen in
Argentina and Venezuela.
The peso traded at ARS 350.03 per USD on 7 September,
depreciating 19.1% month on month. The parallel market rate
traded at ARS 720.00 per USD on 7 September, depreciating
17.2% month on month. On 14 August, the government devalued
the official rate by nearly 18%, mirroring a plunge in the parallel
rate. The peso will continue to weaken ahead.
The real traded at BRL 4.98 per USD on 7 September, depreciating
1.4% month on month. The real’s weakening was likely limited by
GDP growth in Q2 overshooting expectations. Going ahead, the
currency is expected to end the year close to its current value, but
a dwindling interest rate differential compared to the U.S. Fed is
a depreciatory risk.
The peso traded at CLP 878 per USD on 7 September,
depreciating 2.9% month on month. Aggressive rate cuts by the
Central Bank were likely to blame. Looking ahead, the peso should
appreciate slightly from current levels by year-end, supported by
market intervention by the finance ministry. Faster-than-expected
monetary easing is a depreciatory risk.
The peso traded at COP 4,093 per USD on 7 September,
depreciating 0.4% month on month. The COP is seen losing
further ground by the end of 2023, as the Central Bank lowers
its policy rate, before stabilizing in 2024. Oil prices and the
President’s policy agenda are key factors to watch.
The peso traded at MXN 17.55 per USD on 7 September,
depreciating 2.7% month on month. Higher U.S. bond yields likely
weighed on the peso, though the currency is still 12% stronger
year to date on nearshoring and strong remittances and inward
investment. The peso should weaken from current levels by end2023 as the interest rate differential with the U.S. narrows.
The sol traded at PEN 3.71 per USD on 7 September, depreciating
0.5% month on month. The currency should lose some ground
from current levels by the end of this year amid protracted
domestic political and social instability and a narrowing interest
rate differential with the U.S. Volatile copper prices are a key
factor to watch.
Note: Annual appreciation/depreciation of national currencies versus USD in %. Positive
number means currency is gaining value against USD. Change in forecast refers to 2023.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
|6
News in Focus
September 2023
Summary
News in Focus
ARGENTINA: Economic activity decreases at softer pace in
June
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE) slid 4.4% year
on year in June (May: -5.5% yoy). On a monthly basis, economic
activity dropped 0.2% in June, easing from May’s 0.6% fall.
Exchange Rate | ARS per USD
ARGENTINA: Peso plummets following surprise primary
election outcome
The Argentine peso traded at ARS 350.03 per USD on 7
September, depreciating 19.1% month on month. Meanwhile,
the parallel market rate traded at ARS 720.00 per USD on 7
September, depreciating 17.2% month on month. This was due
to the Central Bank devaluing the peso by around 18% on the 13
August.
BRAZIL: GDP growth slows in Q2
GDP growth slowed to 0.9% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-onquarter basis in Q2 (Q1: +1.8% s.a. qoq). Despite the slowdown,
the result outperformed market expectations: Market analysts had
anticipated a 0.3% increase.
Note: Official exchange rate vs the U.S dollar.
Source: Macrobond Financial AB.
BRAZIL | Gross Domestic Product
BRAZIL: Inflation increases in July
Inflation came in at 4.0% in July, up from June’s 3.2%. July’s result
was markedly above the Central Bank of Brazil’s 3.25% target for
the year and overshot market expectations of a 3.9% increase.
CHILE: GDP drops in the second quarter in both annual and
quarterly terms
GDP contracted 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter
basis in Q2, contrasting the downwardly revised 0.4% expansion
logged in Q1. On an annual basis, GDP declined 1.1% in Q2,
compared to the previous period’s 0.8% contraction.
COLOMBIA: Economy weakens more than expected in Q2
GDP growth waned to 0.3% year on year in the second quarter,
from 3.0% in the first quarter. Q2’s reading marked the worst result
since Q4 2020. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter
basis, economic activity contracted 1.0% in Q2, contrasting the
previous quarter’s 2.2% expansion.
Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-onyear variation %.
Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
COLOMBIA | Gross Domestic Product
MEXICO: Manufacturing PMI improves in August; nonmanufacturing PMI stable
The Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF) Manufacturing
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 52.3 in August, up
from July’s 51.3. Meanwhile, the non-Manufacturing PMI clocked
in at 52.1 in August, unchanged from July.
PERU: Economy records sharpest contraction since Q4 2020
in Q2
GDP contracted at a sharper pace of 0.5% year on year in the
second quarter, below the 0.4% contraction tallied in the first
quarter. Q2’s reading marked the worst reading since Q4 2020.
On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP declined
at a more moderate pace of 0.2% in Q2.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
Note: Year-on-year changes and quarter-on-quarter of GDP in %.
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE) and LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
|7
September 2023
Summary
Population, millions
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Centam & Carib.
2021
625
19.7
129
269
45.8
213
7.4
3.5
27.6
114
11.8
51.0
17.8
33.8
92.4
2022
630
19.9
130
271
46.3
214
7.5
3.6
26.9
116
12.0
51.6
18.0
34.2
93.3
2023
636
20.1
131
273
46.8
215
7.6
3.6
26.5
117
12.1
52.2
18.3
34.5
94.4
2024
641
20.3
132
275
47.2
216
7.7
3.6
26.5
118
12.3
52.7
18.5
34.9
95.4
Population, 2023
2025
646
20.5
133
277
47.7
217
7.8
3.6
120
12.5
53.2
18.8
35.2
96.4
2026
652
20.7
134
278
48.2
219
7.9
3.6
121
12.6
53.7
19.0
35.6
97.5
2027
659
20.9
135
282
48.7
222
8.0
3.6
122
12.8
54.3
19.3
35.9
98.6
Notes and sources
Note: Population, millions. Latin America and Mercosur forecasts
exclude Venezuela.
Sources: The International Monetary Fund (IMF).
GDP, USD billions
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Centam & Carib.
2021
5,088
316
1,312
2,237
487
1,649
39.8
61.3
111.8
691
40.4
319
106
226
532
2022
5,773
301
1,466
2,663
630
1,921
41.6
71.1
128.8
747
44.1
344
115
245
595
2023
6,327
346
1,690
2,861
610
2,126
44.1
80.2
137.6
794
46.2
361
118
268
637
2024
6,579
363
1,750
2,938
569
2,239
47.1
83.5
147.3
856
48.2
399
124
285
672
GDP, 2023
2025
6,960
386
1,831
3,136
671
2,327
49.8
88.1
155.4
909
50.7
428
132
298
699
2026
7,400
412
1,907
3,386
771
2,468
52.8
93.7
960
52.0
459
134
315
735
2027
8,031
438
2,005
3,787
991
2,644
55.9
95.8
1,028
54.6
499
140
335
774
Notes and sources
Note: GDP in current USD billions. Latin America and Mercosur
forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
|8
September 2023
Summary
Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in %
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Centam & Carib.
2021
7.2
11.7
5.8
6.2
10.7
5.0
4.0
5.3
0.5
10.4
6.1
11.0
4.2
13.3
7.5
2022
3.8
2.4
3.9
3.4
5.0
2.9
0.1
4.9
11.8
4.9
3.5
7.3
2.9
2.7
4.7
2023
1.8
-0.2
2.7
1.3
-2.8
2.4
4.3
1.3
3.0
1.5
2.3
1.4
1.8
1.3
2.8
2024
1.6
1.9
1.8
1.1
-0.8
1.4
3.9
2.7
3.5
2.1
2.4
1.8
1.8
2.6
2.8
2025
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.1
2.4
2.0
3.8
2.5
3.7
2.7
2.4
2.8
2.4
2.7
3.0
GDP Growth, 2023
2026
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.3
2.0
3.9
2.4
3.0
2.9
2.8
3.1
2.3
3.0
3.1
2027
2.4
2.6
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.1
3.6
2.4
2.9
3.0
2.8
3.2
2.3
3.1
3.2
Notes and sources
Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %. Latin
America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
GDP per capita, USD
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Centam & Carib.
2021
8,143
16,031
10,169
8,306
10,625
7,756
5,414
17,313
4,053
6,037
3,428
6,241
5,979
6,669
5,764
2022
9,158
15,091
11,270
9,819
13,606
8,978
5,579
20,004
4,786
6,457
3,685
6,659
6,390
7,157
6,374
2023
9,951
17,201
12,878
10,477
13,055
9,880
5,831
22,476
5,183
6,782
3,810
6,929
6,475
7,768
6,747
2024
10,260
17,890
13,227
10,692
12,039
10,350
6,156
23,337
5,565
7,229
3,924
7,569
6,684
8,172
7,039
GDP per capita, 2023
2025
10,767
18,833
13,728
11,340
14,057
10,702
6,419
24,550
7,598
4,069
8,051
7,015
8,473
7,247
2026
11,354
19,925
14,191
12,167
16,001
11,290
6,720
26,025
7,938
4,113
8,545
7,030
8,865
7,543
2027
12,181
20,994
14,813
13,419
20,357
11,914
7,023
26,527
8,403
4,261
9,189
7,231
9,325
7,848
Notes and sources
Note: GDP per capita in current USD. Latin America and Mercosur
forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
|9
September 2023
Summary
Consumption, annual variation in %
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Centam & Carib.
2021
8.3
20.8
7.5
5.2
10.4
3.7
6.1
2.9
0.4
12.6
5.3
14.5
10.2
12.4
10.4
2022
5.7
2.9
6.1
5.6
9.7
4.3
2.2
6.0
11.0
6.5
4.2
9.5
4.6
3.6
5.8
2023
1.6
-4.2
3.1
1.2
-1.5
1.9
2.5
2.1
3.3
1.4
2.4
0.9
2.0
1.6
2.7
2024
1.6
2.1
1.9
1.0
-1.4
1.4
3.2
2.7
4.2
2.0
1.4
1.8
1.9
2.4
2.9
2025
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.3
3.3
2.0
3.5
2.5
3.6
2.6
2.4
2.6
2.4
2.7
3.1
Consumption Growth, 2023
2026
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.3
2.7
2.2
4.0
2.6
3.2
3.0
2.4
3.2
2.5
3.1
3.1
2027
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.7
2.1
3.5
2.4
2.9
3.0
2.7
3.2
2.7
2.8
3.2
Notes and sources
Note: Private consumption, real annual variation in %. Latin America
and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
Investment, annual variation in %
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Centam & Carib.
2021
17.4
15.7
10.7
20.3
33.8
16.5
18.2
16.5
-3.0
20.7
11.9
17.3
4.3
34.6
18.2
2022
4.7
2.8
6.0
3.5
11.1
0.9
-2.3
9.5
20.9
6.3
6.5
11.4
2.5
1.0
6.4
2023
0.3
-2.2
5.3
-2.5
-6.2
-1.7
0.5
2.2
4.2
-2.6
2.7
-2.8
-0.4
-4.2
4.6
2024
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.2
-2.1
1.9
6.4
2.0
3.7
1.4
1.9
0.7
2.5
1.9
3.5
2025
3.0
2.5
2.0
3.4
5.6
2.8
6.3
2.9
3.4
3.7
3.1
4.8
2.5
2.7
3.4
Investment Growth, 2023
2026
3.1
2.9
2.5
3.4
4.9
2.8
4.9
3.4
3.2
3.4
3.9
2.5
2.9
3.6
2027
3.0
2.5
2.5
3.1
5.2
2.4
3.6
3.0
3.1
3.5
4.3
2.5
2.9
3.5
Notes and sources
Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %. Latin America
and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 10
September 2023
Summary
Industrial Production, annual variation in %
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Colombia
Peru
2021
7.7
5.3
5.6
7.0
15.7
4.2
12.3
12.9
17.2
16.2
18.7
2022
1.9
-2.5
3.2
0.6
4.2
-0.7
3.6
13.6
6.6
10.7
0.9
2023
0.4
-2.2
2.0
0.1
-1.2
0.4
1.1
5.3
-0.7
-0.5
-1.0
2024
1.5
0.0
2.1
1.2
0.0
1.5
2.5
5.5
2.0
1.6
2.4
2025
2.2
2.4
2.1
2.6
1.9
2.8
2.5
2.9
2.1
Industrial Production Growth, 2023
2026
2.5
2.8
2.3
3.0
2.1
2.8
3.1
2.2
2027
2.5
2.7
2.2
2.7
2.0
3.0
3.5
2.4
Notes and sources
Note: Industrial production, real annual variation in %. Data for Chile,
Colombia and Peru refers to manufacturing. Latin America and
Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes.
Unemployment, % of active population
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Centam & Carib.
2021
9.5
9.1
4.1
12.3
8.8
13.5
9.3
38.4
11.3
6.9
13.8
5.2
11.3
8.9
2022
7.2
7.8
3.3
8.8
6.8
9.5
7.9
34.3
8.6
4.7
11.2
4.3
7.7
7.2
2023
6.8
8.5
3.1
8.2
7.7
8.4
8.2
33.4
8.4
4.9
11.1
4.1
7.3
7.0
2024
7.0
8.2
3.4
8.6
8.6
8.6
7.6
32.5
8.3
4.9
10.9
4.3
7.1
6.7
2025
7.0
7.8
3.4
8.6
8.1
8.7
7.4
31.0
10.6
6.9
-
Unemployment, 2023
2026
6.9
7.6
3.3
8.5
8.0
8.7
7.2
28.3
10.4
6.7
-
2027
6.8
7.4
3.3
8.1
7.8
8.3
7.0
26.4
10.2
6.5
-
Notes and sources
Note: Unemployment rate as % of active population (for details see notes
in country). Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 11
September 2023
Summary
Public Debt, % of GDP
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Centam & Carib.
2021
63.2
36.4
50.7
77.8
80.6
78.3
37.5
69.1
54.3
81.4
63.0
57.1
35.9
59.0
2022
61.5
37.6
48.3
75.1
85.2
72.9
40.9
67.1
52.4
82.6
61.1
54.2
33.8
55.5
2023
62.9
38.9
49.7
78.4
90.7
76.1
41.8
67.3
51.0
82.7
58.9
53.9
33.6
54.3
2024
63.5
40.4
50.3
79.6
84.1
79.6
42.5
68.3
51.1
85.1
58.7
52.8
33.8
53.1
Public Debt, 2023
2025
64.1
41.0
50.5
81.2
78.2
82.0
50.9
85.8
58.0
52.3
34.0
-
2026
63.8
39.8
49.8
81.0
71.8
83.8
49.7
86.1
55.4
51.3
34.7
-
2027
64.3
38.6
49.5
81.6
74.4
84.3
49.4
86.2
54.6
50.9
35.0
-
Notes and sources
Note: Public debt as % GDP.
Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and IMF.
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Centam & Carib.
2021
-4.1
-7.7
-2.8
-4.1
-3.6
-4.3
-3.6
-3.5
-4.6
-4.8
-9.3
-7.0
-1.6
-2.5
-3.9
2022
-3.5
1.1
-3.2
-4.4
-3.8
-4.6
-3.0
-3.2
-6.0
-3.4
-7.3
-5.3
0.1
-1.7
-2.2
2023
-4.9
-2.2
-3.8
-6.8
-4.4
-7.8
-2.4
-2.7
-5.4
-3.4
-6.6
-4.3
-1.5
-2.4
-2.6
2024
-4.4
-2.1
-3.6
-5.9
-2.6
-6.9
-1.8
-1.8
-4.9
-3.3
-6.1
-4.2
-1.7
-2.3
-2.5
Fiscal Balance, 2023
2025
-3.9
-1.9
-3.2
-5.2
-2.4
-6.2
-1.7
-1.4
-3.3
-2.9
-6.0
-3.7
-0.8
-2.1
-2.3
2026
-3.6
-1.6
-2.9
-4.8
-2.2
-5.8
-1.5
-2.6
-2.8
-2.6
-5.7
-3.4
-0.6
-1.8
-2.1
2027
-3.3
-1.3
-2.6
-4.2
-1.7
-5.3
-1.5
-2.6
-2.4
-5.4
-3.1
-0.4
-1.7
-2.1
Notes and sources
Note: Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Argentina: Non-financial public sector.
Brazil: Public sector borrowing requirement.
Chile: Central government.
Colombia: Central government.
Ecuador: Non-financial public sector.
Mexico: Non-financial public sector.
Peru: Non-financial public sector.
Venezuela: General government.
Sources: National statistical institutes, finance ministries and IMF.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 12
September 2023
Summary
Inflation, variation of consumer prices in %
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Centam & Carib.
2021
10.0
4.5
5.7
17.0
48.4
8.3
4.8
7.7
1,589
3.0
0.7
3.5
0.1
4.0
3.9
2022
15.6
11.6
7.9
24.2
72.4
9.3
9.8
9.1
187
7.9
1.7
10.2
3.5
7.9
7.6
2023
17.1
7.8
5.6
30.4
124.5
4.8
5.0
6.5
346
8.0
2.9
11.5
2.4
6.5
4.6
2024
16.9
3.7
4.1
32.8
152.0
4.2
3.7
6.2
149
4.4
4.1
5.8
2.6
3.4
3.3
2025
10.5
3.2
3.6
18.9
74.5
3.7
3.8
5.7
99.7
3.3
3.8
3.9
2.6
2.7
-
Inflation, 2023
2026
8.0
3.0
3.5
13.4
46.3
3.7
3.9
5.0
74.4
2.9
3.3
3.3
2.1
2.5
-
2027
7.4
3.0
3.5
11.9
35.3
3.5
3.8
4.9
75.1
2.9
3.1
3.3
2.1
2.5
-
Notes and sources
Note: Average-of-year variation of consumer price index in %. Latin
America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
Interest Rate, %
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Andean Com.
Colombia
Peru
Centam & Carib.
2021
9.55
4.00
5.50
15.34
38.00
9.25
5.25
5.75
2.79
3.00
2.50
2.46
2022
18.95
11.25
10.50
28.09
75.00
13.75
8.50
11.25
10.13
12.00
7.50
6.36
2023
23.64
7.90
10.82
38.62
138.04
11.83
6.90
9.39
9.74
11.97
6.74
5.36
2024
13.98
4.66
8.40
21.60
74.19
9.08
5.30
8.33
6.17
7.26
4.65
4.39
Interest Rate, 2023
2025
11.40
4.22
6.86
17.37
50.95
8.34
5.17
7.31
4.97
5.64
4.02
4.08
2026
9.69
4.07
6.75
14.01
32.65
8.38
5.17
4.73
5.29
3.92
3.95
2027
8.55
3.80
6.67
11.40
20.17
8.25
5.17
4.65
5.11
3.96
-
Notes and sources
Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %. Latin America and
Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Argentina: 7-day LELIQ rate.
Brazil: SELIC rate.
Chile: Monetary policy rate.
Colombia: Central Bank intervention rate.
Mexico: 1-day target interbank rate.
Paraguay: Monetary policy rate.
Peru: Monetary policy rate.
Uruguay: Monetary policy rate.
Sources: National central banks
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 13
September 2023
Summary
Exchange Rates vs. USD, appreciation in %
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Peru
Centam & Carib.
2021
-7.6
-16.6
-2.6
-9.1
-18.1
-6.7
-0.1
-5.6
-11.1
-0.1
-13.8
-9.4
-2.5
2022
-2.3
0.0
5.0
-5.7
-42.0
5.5
-6.2
12.7
-7.6
-0.3
-17.2
4.6
-0.3
2023
-1.2
3.2
8.3
-9.8
-68.6
6.6
0.7
-1.3
8.6
0.3
14.3
2.3
0.0
2024
-6.6
1.2
-3.9
-11.6
-49.4
-2.4
-0.8
-5.2
-0.3
-4.1
0.1
-0.2
-1.1
2025
-4.4
0.0
-3.5
-7.0
-25.9
-1.8
-2.0
-3.9
-0.3
-4.3
0.0
0.0
-0.9
Exchange Rates versus USD, 2023
2026
-3.8
-2.0
-1.1
-6.4
-24.7
-1.0
-1.0
-2.4
-1.3
-7.7
-1.2
-0.3
-1.6
2027
-2.8
1.0
-1.2
-4.7
-18.4
0.3
-1.4
-3.7
-0.9
-1.2
-1.9
0.7
-1.8
Notes and sources
Note: Annual appreciation/depreciation of national currencies versus
USD in %. Positive number means currency is gaining value against
USD. Regional aggregates provided only as indicative information.
Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
On 1 October 2021, authorities in Venezuela removed six zeros from
the currency. As a result, the figures have been temporarily removed
from the table.
Sources: Central banks and Macrobond Financial AB.
Current Account Balance, % of GDP
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Centam & Carib.
2021
-1.9
-7.3
-0.6
-1.9
1.4
-2.8
-0.8
-2.5
1.0
-2.8
2.2
-5.6
2.9
-2.2
-1.2
2022
-2.6
-9.0
-1.2
-2.4
-0.7
-2.8
-6.7
-3.5
1.2
-3.9
-0.4
-6.3
1.9
-4.1
-1.7
2023
-1.8
-3.2
-1.0
-2.1
-1.9
-2.1
-1.0
-3.1
0.5
-2.3
-2.1
-3.9
1.2
-1.7
-1.4
2024
-1.6
-3.4
-0.9
-1.7
0.6
-2.3
-0.9
-1.9
0.9
-2.3
-2.4
-3.7
0.5
-1.4
-1.2
2025
-1.6
-3.5
-1.1
-1.7
0.5
-2.3
-1.0
-1.8
0.9
-2.0
-2.3
-3.5
1.1
-1.3
-1.4
Current Account Balance, 2023
2026
-1.8
-3.6
-1.3
-1.7
0.1
-2.3
-1.2
-1.8
-2.0
-2.8
-3.4
1.4
-1.1
-1.6
2027
-1.8
-3.6
-1.3
-1.7
0.4
-2.5
-1.4
-1.5
-2.1
-2.6
-3.5
1.3
-1.6
-1.7
Notes and sources
Note: Current account balance as % of GDP. Latin America and
Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 14
September 2023
Summary
Exports, annual variation in %
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Centam & Carib.
2021
30.9
28.0
18.6
36.3
42.0
34.2
20.7
56.0
21.9
38.3
56.4
32.3
31.1
47.0
30.6
2022
17.2
4.0
16.7
17.1
13.5
19.0
-3.1
8.8
46.9
24.7
23.5
39.5
22.5
5.2
16.0
2023
-0.3
0.9
5.3
-3.3
-18.1
0.3
13.9
2.9
-2.4
-3.6
-8.7
-5.8
-5.3
1.1
1.7
2024
4.2
2.9
5.1
4.2
16.0
1.1
5.6
5.3
3.1
3.1
4.9
4.6
-2.6
3.1
4.5
Export Growth, 2023
2025
3.9
0.9
4.1
3.6
4.5
3.2
2.3
5.3
-0.7
6.2
-0.6
7.0
6.9
5.9
3.4
2026
4.4
3.4
4.2
4.9
0.4
6.4
3.7
2.7
3.8
2.6
1.3
1.4
2.3
4.7
6.2
2027
6.2
2.6
4.0
8.6
3.8
10.5
5.7
4.7
-0.8
3.5
4.2
3.9
0.1
4.3
6.2
Notes and sources
Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise exports. Latin
America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
Imports, annual variation in %
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Centam & Carib.
2021
38.5
53.0
32.0
40.5
49.2
38.2
29.4
41.9
18.2
38.2
37.0
37.7
40.3
38.2
37.4
2022
22.8
12.4
19.6
25.2
29.0
24.2
17.1
21.4
42.6
23.8
35.6
26.3
27.2
16.5
24.7
2023
-2.8
-11.2
3.7
-5.4
-10.7
-4.2
-1.7
1.7
1.5
-7.7
-4.5
-11.2
-5.8
-4.3
3.2
2024
3.9
4.4
4.5
3.7
-1.5
5.0
6.0
3.8
4.5
3.7
4.7
4.0
0.7
4.4
2.8
Import Growth, 2023
2025
4.6
4.4
5.2
4.5
9.0
3.3
1.8
2.2
-4.3
4.4
1.0
3.7
2.9
6.5
3.6
2026
5.0
4.5
4.3
5.9
4.9
6.3
3.9
4.9
1.3
2.9
3.5
1.7
2.3
4.7
5.3
2027
6.6
2.9
4.0
9.1
8.7
9.5
6.2
6.0
-3.2
4.8
4.0
4.6
1.7
6.5
5.4
Notes and sources
Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise imports. Latin
America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 15
September 2023
Summary
International Reserves, months of imports
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Centam & Carib.
2021
11.8
7.3
4.8
16.9
7.5
19.8
9.5
18.1
14.7
13.5
12.4
4.0
19.6
7.3
2022
9.0
5.0
4.0
12.3
6.6
14.3
8.0
13.3
9.4
10.6
9.6
3.3
15.5
5.8
2023
9.5
6.2
3.9
13.2
4.8
15.7
8.2
13.5
9.1
11.8
11.0
3.2
16.7
6.0
2024
9.5
6.1
3.8
13.3
5.9
15.2
8.3
13.0
9.2
11.6
10.8
3.0
16.3
6.1
2025
9.4
6.0
3.9
13.1
6.1
15.1
13.9
9.6
11.6
11.1
2.9
16.2
6.1
International Reserves, 2023
2026
9.2
6.0
3.7
12.6
6.4
14.5
14.3
9.7
11.7
10.7
3.1
16.7
6.0
2027
9.0
6.2
3.7
11.6
5.9
13.7
14.0
10.1
13.3
10.7
17.3
6.0
Notes and sources
Note: International reserves as months of imports. Latin America and
Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: Central banks.
External Debt, % of GDP
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Centam & Carib.
2021
43.0
75.2
46.0
29.2
55.0
19.7
79.5
95
50.0
39.5
53.8
53.0
45.2
71.2
2022
38.2
77.6
40.1
24.9
43.9
16.6
78.1
85
48.5
42.2
53.6
50.0
41.8
65.7
2023
36.6
71.3
39.3
23.1
44.8
15.1
72.2
80
48.2
44.0
53.4
51.6
40.5
61.6
2024
35.2
70.9
39.8
23.7
50.0
15.2
71.6
75
46.5
45.8
51.5
39.5
-
External Debt, 2023
2025
64.8
41.1
42.2
69.4
47.9
49.2
-
2026
38.7
37.5
51.4
48.1
-
2027
38.6
29.9
54.5
46.0
-
Notes and sources
Note: External debt as % of GDP. Latin America and Mercosur
forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and finance
ministries.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 16
September 2023
Summary
Major Risk Indicators | EMBI Spreads and Sovereign Ratings
Sovereign Spreads (bps)
August
July
2,097
1,982
1,194
908
211
197
131
119
321
313
1,850
1,934
365
354
212
202
164
163
88
89
34,220
38,800
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
Mexico
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
Overview | Spread in bps
Venezuela
Moody's
Rating
Ca
Caa1
Ba2
A2
Baa2
Caa3
Baa2
Ba1
Baa1
Baa2
-
Outlook
Stable
Negative
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Positive
Negative
Positive
-
Argentina
34,220
4,000
Argentina
S&P
Rating
CCCBBBA
BB+
BBBB
BB
BBB
BBB+
-
Outlook
Negative
Negative
Positive
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Negative
Stable
-
Brazil
EMBI + Latin
800
EMBI + Latin
Argentina
Ecuador
Bolivia
Fitch Ratings
Ratings
Outlook
C
BNegative
BB
Stable
AStable
BB+
Stable
CCC+
BBBStable
BB+
Stable
BBB
Negative
BBB
Stable
Restricted Default
-
Brazil
3,000
600
2,000
400
1,000
200
EMBI + Latin
Mexico
Colombia
Paraguay
Brazil
Peru
Chile
Uruguay
0
750
1,500
2,250
3,000
Chile
0
2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023
Colombia
800
0
2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023
Mexico
800
800
EMBI + Latin
EMBI + Latin
Chile
Colombia
EMBI + Latin
Mexico
600
600
600
400
400
400
200
200
200
0
2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023
Peru
0
2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023
Uruguay
800
0
2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023
Venezuela
1,000
70,000
EMBI + Latin
EMBI + Latin
Peru
Uruguay
EMBI + Latin
Venezuela
600
750
52,500
400
500
35,000
200
250
17,500
0
2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
0
2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023
0
2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023
| 17
September 2023
Summary
Major Stock Markets | Performance in %
August 2023
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Latin America
Emerging Markets
World
MSCI Price Indices (USD)
Last Month
Last 3 Months Last 12 Months
86.8
-0.2
28.2
-9.3
8.9
2.6
-9.4
3.5
-7.7
-15.7
6.9
-9.6
-4.6
4.5
37.7
-7.4
14.9
31.1
-7.9
7.3
11.0
-6.4
2.3
-1.4
-3.0
6.2
11.9
Overview | month-on-month var. in %
YTD
National Benchmark Stock Indices (local currencies)
Last Month
Last 3 Months Last 12 Months
YTD
43.0
91.1
379.7
223.4
-5.1
6.8
5.7
5.5
-6.2
9.0
5.6
10.5
-8.4
-2.1
-12.4
-23.7
-3.3
0.5
18.0
9.4
-1.6
9.2
22.7
8.5
-
43.0
6.6
-1.2
-11.6
24.6
14.6
10.9
2.5
13.3
Argentina
Brazil
250
Argentina
Latin America
World
Emerging Markets
150
50
100
Latin America
Brazil
25
50
Chile
Colombia
-15
-10
-5
Chile
125
Brazil
75
Peru
-20
Latin America
Argentina
200
Mexico
100
Latin America
0
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
0
2015
Colombia
Mexico
120
150
2017
2019
2021
2023
2021
2023
Latin America
Chile
Colombia
100
90
100
60
50
75
50
Latin America
Mexico
25
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2021
2023
30
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
0
2015
2017
2019
Peru
200
Latin America
Peru
150
100
50
0
2015
2017
2019
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 18
September 2023
Summary
Cross Exchange Rate Forecasts | Year end
United States
U.S. Dollar (USD)
United States
Japan
Euro Area
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
2021
115
0.88
103
5.57
852
3,981
20.5
3.99
4.6
Euro Area
2022
132
0.94
177
5.28
852
4,810
19.5
3.81
17.5
2023
137
0.91
565
4.95
825
4,207
18.0
3.73
49.50
2024
128
0.88
1,116
5.08
816
4,201
18.7
3.74
129.02
Euro (EUR)
United States
Japan
Euro Area
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
Japan
Japanese Yen (JPY,100)
United States
Japan
Euro Area
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
2021
0.87
0.76
89.2
4.84
740
3,457
17.8
3.47
3.99
2021
0.18
20.7
0.16
18.4
153
715
3.67
0.72
0.83
2022
0.76
0.71
134.2
4.00
646
3,646
14.8
2.89
13.3
2023
0.73
0.67
414
3.63
604
3,080
13.2
2.73
36.2
2024
0.78
0.69
872
3.96
637
3,282
14.6
2.92
101
Argentine Peso (ARS)
United States
Japan
Euro Area
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
2021
0.25
28.9
0.22
25.8
1.40
214
5.14
1.00
1.15
2022
0.19
25.0
0.18
33.5
161
911
3.69
0.72
3.31
2023
0.20
27.6
0.18
114.1
167
849
3.63
0.75
10.0
2024
0.20
25.2
0.17
220
161
828
3.69
0.74
25.4
Chilean Peso (CLP, 100)
United States
Japan
Euro Area
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
2021
0.25
28.9
0.22
25.7
1.40
213
998
5.13
1.15
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
2024
1.14
146
1,270
5.77
928
4,780
21.3
4.25
146.8
2021
0.01
1.12
0.01
0.05
8.30
38.8
0.20
0.04
0.04
2022
0.01
0.74
0.01
0.03
4.81
27.2
0.11
0.02
0.10
2023
0.00
0.24
0.00
0.01
1.46
7.4
0.03
0.01
0.09
2024
0.00
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.73
3.8
0.02
0.00
0.12
2021
0.12
13.5
0.10
12.1
0.65
467
2.40
0.47
0.54
2022
0.12
15.5
0.11
20.8
0.62
565
2.29
0.45
2.05
2023
0.12
16.5
0.11
68.4
0.60
510
2.18
0.45
6.00
2024
0.12
15.7
0.11
136.8
0.62
515
2.29
0.46
15.8
2022
0.05
6.77
0.05
9.09
0.27
43.7
247
0.20
0.90
2023
0.06
7.59
0.05
31.4
0.28
45.9
234
0.21
2.75
2024
0.05
6.84
0.05
59.6
0.27
43.6
224
0.20
6.89
2022
0.06
7.54
0.05
10.1
0.30
48.7
275
1.11
0.22
-
2023
0.02
2.76
0.02
11.41
0.10
16.7
85.0
0.36
0.08
-
2024
0.01
0.99
0.01
8.65
0.04
6.32
32.6
0.15
0.03
-
Mexico
2022
0.21
27.4
0.19
36.8
1.10
177
4.05
0.79
3.64
2023
0.24
32.5
0.22
134.3
1.18
196
4.28
0.89
11.8
2024
0.24
30.5
0.21
265.6
1.21
194
4.46
0.89
30.7
Mexican Peso (MXN)
United States
Japan
Euro Area
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
Peru
Peruvian Nuevo Sol (PEN)
United States
Japan
Euro Area
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
2023
1.10
150
621
5.44
907
4,624
19.8
4.10
54.41
Chile
Colombia
Colombian Peso (COP, 1000)
United States
Japan
Euro Area
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
2022
1.07
141
189
5.63
909
5,134
20.8
4.07
18.67
Argentina
Brazil
Brazilian Real (BRL)
United States
Japan
Euro Area
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
2021
1.14
131
117
6.33
969
4,527
23.3
4.54
5.23
2021
0.05
5.63
0.04
5.02
0.27
41.6
195
0.20
0.22
Venezuela
2022
0.26
34.6
0.25
46.4
1.38
223
1,261
5.11
4.59
2023
0.27
36.6
0.24
151.5
1.33
221
1,128
4.82
13.3
2024
0.27
34.3
0.24
298.6
1.36
218
1,124
5.01
34.5
Venezuelan Bolívar (VED)
United States
Japan
Euro Area
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
2021
0.22
25.0
0.19
22.3
1.21
185
866
4.45
0.87
-
| 19
Economic Release Calendar
Calendar
Date
Country
Event
8 September
Chile
August Consumer Prices
Peru
August Merchandise Trade
11 September
Uruguay
July Industrial Production
12 September
Brazil
August Consumer Prices
Peru
Central Bank Meeting
Argentina
August Consumer Prices
Uruguay
Q2 2023 National Accounts
Ecuador
July Economic Activity
Peru
July Economic Activity
Brazil
July Economic Activity
Colombia
July Economic Activity
Mexico
Q2 2023 National Accounts (by expenditure)
Argentina
September Consumer Confidence (E)
Argentina
Q2 2023 National Accounts
Brazil
Central Bank Meeting
21 September
Argentina
August Merchandise Trade
22 September
Mexico
July Economic Activity
25 September
Brazil
August Balance of Payments
26 September
Argentina
July Economic Activity
27 September
Mexico
August Merchandise Trade
28 September
Brazil
September Economic Sentiment (E)
Mexico
Central Bank Meeting
Colombia
Central Bank Meeting
14 September
15 September
18 September
20 September
29 September
Ecuador
Q2 2023 National Accounts
1 October
Chile
September Business Confidence (E)
2 October
Brazil
September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
Chile
August Economic Activity
Colombia
September Davivienda Manufacturing PMI
Mexico
September IMEF PMI
4 October
Brazil
September S&P Global Services PMI
5 October
Colombia
September Consumer Prices
Colombia
September Merchandise Trade (E)
Ecuador
September Consumer Prices
Mexico
September Consumer Confidence
Uruguay
Central Bank Meeting
Uruguay
September Consumer Prices
Argentina
August Industrial Production
Chile
September Consumer Prices
Peru
Central Bank Meeting
Peru
September Consumer Prices
Colombia
September Consumer Confidence
6 October
7 October
September 2023
(P) Preliminary estimate. (E) Approximate date.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 20
Argentina
September 2023
Argentina
Outlook deteriorates
Argentina
•
The economy likely shrank significantly in Q2, buffeted by a destructive
drought, hyperinflation, FX restrictions, a plunging peso and rocketing
interest rates. GDP has likely continued to fall in Q3 due to the same
factors and heightened political uncertainty. Outsider libertarian candidate
Javier Milei surprisingly came first in 13 August primary elections for the
presidency, followed by the conservative opposition bloc and the ruling
Peronist party: The peso plunged following the results amid ensuing
political uncertainty. In recent weeks, the government decided to use a
USD 7.5 billion disbursement from the IMF to repay part of a currency
swap with China, while it also announced a series of handouts for workers
and pensioners and promised to exempt millions from income tax in a bid
to shore up political support ahead of the 22 October elections.
•
Argentina is poised to be Latin America’s worst-performing economy this
year, rocked by FX controls, hyperinflation, drought and sky-high interest
rates. Higher visitor arrivals and rising energy output from the Vaca
Muerta field will lend some support. Risks are skewed to the downside
and include a further collapse of the currency, debt default and political
instability. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 2.8% in
2023, which is down by 0.3 percentage points from one month ago, and
contracting 0.80% in 2024.
•
Inflation dropped to 113.4% in July from 115.6% in June, which had marked
the highest rate in the current series. Inflation will surge this year relative
to 2022, stoked by a collapsing peso amid monetary financing of the
fiscal deficit. Faster-than-expected peso depreciation and fiscal largesse
ahead of the October elections are key upside risks. FocusEconomics
panelists see consumer prices rising 124.5% on average in 2023, which
is up by 8.4 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 152.0%
on average in 2024.
•
On 14 August, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) hiked the LELIQ
rate to 118.0% from 97.00% in a bid to support a plummeting peso.
The BCRA acts in coordination with the Ministry of Economy to reduce
monetary financing of the budget deficit. Rates are seen rising further
ahead to tame price pressures. FocusEconomics panelists see the 7-day
LELIQ rate ending 2023 at 138.04% and ending 2024 at 74.19%.
•
The peso traded at ARS 350.03 per USD on 7 September, depreciating
19.1% month on month. The parallel market rate traded at ARS 720.00
per USD on 7 September, depreciating 17.2% month on month. On
14 August, the government devalued the official rate by nearly 18%,
mirroring a plunge in the parallel rate. The peso will continue to weaken
ahead. FocusEconomics panelists see the peso ending 2023 at ARS
564.93 per USD and ending 2024 at ARS 1115.75 per USD.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
Population (million):
GDP (USD bn):
GDP per capita (USD):
GDP growth (%):
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP):
Public Debt (% of GDP):
Inflation (%):
Current Account (% of GDP):
External Debt (% of GDP)
2019-21
45.4
440
9,683
-0.4
-5.3
91.4
48.0
0.4
62.6
2022-24
46.8
603
12,900
0.4
-3.6
86.7
116.3
-0.7
46.2
2025-27
48.2
811
16,805
2.3
-2.1
74.8
52.0
0.3
36.5
Massimo Bassetti
Senior Economist
Economic Growth
Change in GDP forecasts
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024
2020 - Q4 2024.
forecasts during the last 12 months.
Inflation
Change in inflation forecasts
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2023 and 2024
average variation in %, Q4 2020 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2024.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 21
Argentina
Monthly Indicator for Economic Activity | variation in %
September 2023
REAL SECTOR | Economic activity decreases at softer pace in June
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE) slid 4.4% year on year in
June (May: -5.5% yoy). June’s softer drop was partly due to a softer fall in the
agriculture sector, although it still continued to contract at a pronounced rate.
Lastly, activity in the hotels and restaurants sector lost pace, while transport
and communications output contracted at a steeper pace than in the prior
month.
On a monthly basis, economic activity dropped 0.2% in June, easing from
May’s 0.6% fall. Meanwhile, annual average economic activity growth fell to
1.0% in June (May: +1.9%), which marked an over two-year low.
Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of seasonally adjusted EMAE
(Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica)
Source: National Institute of Statistics and Census of Argentina (INDEC).
Industrial Production | variation in %
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 2.8% in 2023, which is down
by 0.3 percentage points from one month ago, and contracting 0.80% in 2024.
REAL SECTOR | Industrial output contracts at sharpest rate since
August 2020 in July
Industrial production slid 3.9% year on year in July (June: -2.4% yoy). July’s
result marked the worst reading since August 2020. July’s figure was partly due
to a bigger drop in machinery and equipment output, which fell at the sharpest
pace since May 2020. In addition, basic metals production weakened. Lastly,
food and beverages production dropped at a sharper rate, while automotive
vehicles production dipped at a steeper pace than in the prior month.
On a monthly basis, industrial output dropped 1.2% in calendar adjusted terms
in July, easing from June’s 1.5% fall. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with
the annual average growth of industrial production coming in at 1.3% in July,
down from June’s 2.1% reading.
Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of industrial production in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC).
Consumer Confidence
FocusEconomics panelists see industrial production contracting 1.2% in
2023, which is up by 0.2 percentage points from one month ago, and flatlining
in 2024.
REAL SECTOR | Consumer confidence rises in August
The Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index
rose to 44.1 in August from 43.6 in July. Consequently, the index remained
entrenched below the 50-threshold that separates optimism from pessimism
among consumers.
Consumers’ expectations over the general economic conditions in the year
ahead improved. Additionally, they grew less pessimistic over their future
financial situations. However, their willingness to purchase big ticket items
weakened.
Note: Monthly consumer confidence index. Values above 50 indicate optimistic
consumer sentiment while values below 50 indicate pessimistic sentiment.
Source: Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT).
FocusEconomics panelists see private consumption contracting 1.5% in 2023,
which is down by 0.3 percentage points from one month ago, and contracting
1.40% in 2024.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation remains in triple digits in July
Inflation came in at 113.4% in July, which was down from June’s 115.6%.
July’s result marked the weakest inflation rate since April, but was still one
of the highest rates globally and the second highest on the continent after
Venezuela’s.
Annual average inflation rose to 101.4% in July (June: 98.0%).
Lastly, consumer prices rose 6.34% in July over the previous month, picking
up from the 5.95% increase logged in June but below market expectations.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 22
Argentina
Inflation | Consumer Price Index
September 2023
Looking ahead, inflation will accelerate further given the Central Bank devalued
the peso by roughly a fifth following the mid-August primary elections, with the
parallel-market peso weakening in tandem.
Itaú Unibanco analysts said:
Note: Annual and monthly var. of national consumer price index in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC).
“While a devaluation was largely expected in the context of the IMF-staff
level agreement, the timing and size had not been clear until now. According
to media reports, the central bank will try to keep the FX unchanged until
the presidential election on October 22. In our view, this goal is challenging
given the low level of international reserves and the expected acceleration in
inflation. The inflationary outlook has deteriorated significantly, and will likely
exceed our inflation forecast of 160% by December.”
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 124.5% on average in
2023, which is up by 8.4 percentage points from one month ago, and rising
152.0% on average in 2024.
Exchange Rate | ARS per USD
Note: Official exchange rate vs the U.S dollar.
Source: Macrobond Financial AB.
MONETARY SECTOR | Argentinian peso plummets following surprise
primary election outcome
The peso traded at ARS 350.03 per USD on 7 September, depreciating 19.1%
month on month. Meanwhile, the parallel market rate traded at ARS 720.00
per USD on 7 September, depreciating 17.2% month on month. This was due
to the Central Bank devaluing the peso by around 18% in the wake of the
13 August primary elections. Outsider libertarian candidate Javier Milei came
in first in the elections, gathering around 30% of the vote, followed by the
opposition center-right bloc Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) with 28% of the vote
and the ruling populist Peronist coalition with 27%. The peso has now lost over
half its value so far in 2023, with the monetary financing of the fiscal deficit,
plunging agricultural exports due to a devastating drought, and a chronic lack
of confidence piling further downward pressure on the currency this year.
The Central Bank’s devaluation was a response to a sell-off of Argentinian
assets following Milei’s surprising breakthrough at the polls. Milei’s strong
electoral performance made the prospect of dollarization—his key policy
proposal to tackle inflation—more real, boosting the attractiveness of holding
dollars at the expense of peso-denominated assets. Evaporating international
reserves and heightened uncertainty about the outcome of the 22 October
presidential election and a possible default likely put further downward
pressure on the peso, and made the pre-primary-election rate of ARS 288 per
USD impossible to sustain.
Looking ahead, the Central Bank aims to maintain the current exchange rate
of around ARS 350 per USD until the elections. So far, it has achieved this,
though our panelists expect a sharp depreciation by year-end given the Bank’s
limited resources to sustain the fixed exchange rate for long. The currency is
then seen losing over half its value in 2024. This will feed through to triple-digit
inflation this year and next.
Argentina’s economic situation is further complicated by a decision taken by
a U.S. court on 8 September to deem the country liable to pay damages of
about USD 16 billion to minority shareholders of previously-nationalized oil
and gas company YPF. Although the government will appeal the decision, the
court ruling only adds to concerns over the country’s fiscal solvency and could
put downward pressure on the currency ahead.
Commenting on the FX outlook, analysts at the EIU said:
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 23
Argentina
September 2023
“Once in power, we expect that the next government will move quickly to lift
many currency controls, causing significant peso devaluation in DecemberJanuary. Depreciation pressures will ease after this maxi-devaluation as the
gap with the black-market rate narrows and the real exchange rate weakens
to a more competitive level. There is a growing risk of dollarisation or the
establishment of a bi-monetary system.”
FocusEconomics panelists see the peso ending 2023 at ARS 564.93 per USD
and ending 2024 at ARS 1115.75 per USD.
Merchandise Trade
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Merchandise exports slide at a more moderate
rate in July
Merchandise exports shrank 22.4% over the same month last year in July
(June: -35.8% year-on-year). Meanwhile, merchandise imports dived 19.1%
in annual terms in July (June: -16.3% yoy), marking the weakest reading since
December 2022.
As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous
month, recording a USD 0.6 billion deficit in July (June 2023: USD 1.8 billion
deficit; July 2022: USD 0.5 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend deteriorated, with
the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 0.7 billion
deficit in July, compared to the USD 0.5 billion deficit in June.
Note: Trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of exports and imports
in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics
calculations.
FocusEconomics panelists see merchandise exports falling 18.1% in 2023,
which is down by 0.9 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 16.0%
in 2024.
Our panelists see merchandise imports falling 10.7% in 2023, which is up by
0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and falling 1.50% in 2024.
Our panelists see a trade deficit of USD 0.3 billion in 2023 and a trade surplus
of USD 12.4 billion in 2024.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 24
September 2023
Argentina
Economic Indicators | 2018 - 2027
Annual Data
Real Sector
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (ARS bn)
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %)
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %)
Private Consumption (ann. var. %)
Government Consumption (ann. var. %)
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %)
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %)
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %)
Industrial Production (ann. var. %)
Unemployment (% of active population, aop)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %)
Monetary Base (ann. var. %)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)
7-Day LELIQ Rate (%, eop)
Central Bank Badlar Rate (%, eop)
Stock Market (ann. var. of MERVAL %)
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop)
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (USD bn)
Merchandise Imports (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %)
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %)
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn)
International Reserves (USD bn)
International Reserves (months of imports)
External Debt (USD bn)
External Debt (% of GDP)
Quarterly Data
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %)
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %)
Private Consumption (ann. var. %)
Government Consumption (ann. var. %)
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %)
Industrial Production (ann. var. %)
Unemployment (% of active population, aop)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)
7-Day LELIQ Rate (%, eop)
Central Bank Badlar Rate (%, eop)
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop)
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (USD bn)
Merchandise Imports (USD bn)
Monthly Data
Economic Activity (EMAE, ann. var. %)
Industrial Production (ann. var. %)
Consumer Confidence Index (50-pt threshold)
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %)
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop)
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %)
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %)
International Reserves (USD bn)
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
44.5
11,800
525
14,745
38.3
-2.6
-3.7
-2.2
-1.9
-5.7
0.6
-4.5
-5.0
9.2
-4.9
85.2
44.9
9,942
447
21,558
46.2
-2.0
-8.7
-6.1
-6.4
-16.0
9.8
-18.7
-6.3
9.8
-3.8
89.8
45.4
8,483
385
27,210
26.2
-9.9
-9.9
-12.2
-2.0
-13.1
-17.4
-17.2
-7.5
11.5
-8.4
103.9
45.8
10,625
487
46,346
70.3
10.7
13.3
10.4
6.3
33.8
8.5
20.4
15.7
8.8
-3.6
80.6
46.3
13,606
630
82,436
77.9
5.0
7.8
9.7
1.9
11.1
5.8
17.9
4.2
6.8
-3.8
85.2
46.8
13,055
610
181,380
120.0
-2.8
-2.3
-1.5
0.0
-6.2
-8.1
-5.2
-1.2
7.7
-4.4
90.7
47.2
12,039
569
521,596
187.6
-0.8
-1.4
-1.4
-0.9
-2.1
6.7
-0.2
0.0
8.6
-2.6
84.1
47.7
14,057
671
879,064
68.5
2.4
3.3
3.3
0.8
5.6
5.8
4.7
2.6
8.1
-2.4
78.2
48.2
16,001
771
1.35 mn
53.7
2.3
3.1
2.7
2.2
4.9
4.8
5.1
3.0
8.0
-2.2
71.8
48.7
20,357
991
2.20 mn
63.1
2.2
3.2
2.7
1.8
5.2
5.0
5.1
2.7
7.8
-1.7
74.4
22.8
40.7
47.6
34.3
59.25
48.25
0.7
37.7
28.1
29.0
34.5
53.8
53.5
55.00
39.44
37.6
59.9
48.3
78.9
30.3
36.1
42.0
38.00
34.25
22.9
84.1
70.7
59.5
47.9
50.9
48.4
38.00
34.19
63.0
102.7
95.2
67.6
42.4
94.8
72.4
75.00
68.81
142.0
177.1
130.9
109.4
92.3
163.0
124.5
138.04
133.30
565
297
129.3
181.6
121.6
152.0
74.19
63.71
1116
917
70.5
98.0
59.1
74.5
50.95
40.22
1,506
1,311
36.3
39.9
46.3
32.65
22.77
1,999
1,753
28.8
25.5
35.3
20.17
13.98
2,451
2,225
-5.2
-27.1
-3.7
61.8
65.5
5.3
-2.2
11.7
65.8
12.1
278
52.9
Q3 22
5.7
0.8
11.4
11.6
0.4
14.8
5.4
7.1
83.0
77.6
75.00
69.13
147
136
-2.2
-3.5
-0.4
22.9
23.3
Nov-22
2.2
0.5
35.2
4.92
92.4
167
1.4
15.0
-0.1
38.0
-0.8
-3.5
16.0
65.1
49.1
5.4
-25.0
6.6
44.8
11.0
278
62.3
Q4 22
1.5
-1.7
-0.1
5.9
-2.3
0.0
0.2
6.3
94.8
91.8
75.00
68.81
177
162
1.1
1.7
4.3
21.2
16.9
Dec-22
-1.6
-3.1
35.9
5.12
94.8
177
1.1
-7.1
-19.3
44.6
0.7
2.7
12.5
54.9
42.4
-15.7
-13.8
4.7
39.4
11.2
271
70.5
Q1 23
1.3
0.7
3.1
6.0
1.6
-0.6
2.6
6.9
104.3
102.0
78.00
72.44
209
193
-3.7
-5.6
-1.3
15.9
17.2
Jan-23
2.7
6.3
38.5
6.03
98.8
187
-0.4
-11.2
2.2
41.4
1.4
6.6
14.8
77.9
63.2
42.0
49.2
6.8
39.7
7.5
268
55.0
Q2 23
-3.8
-2.8
-0.9
-1.2
-0.6
-7.3
0.1
7.7
115.6
113.0
97.00
92.25
257
232
37.3
56.9
-3.2
17.6
20.7
Feb-23
0.0
-1.7
36.2
6.63
102.5
197
0.2
-18.8
-10.7
38.7
-0.7
-4.3
6.9
88.4
81.5
13.5
29.0
15.1
44.6
6.6
276
43.9
Q3 23
-4.6
-1.3
-3.8
-2.5
0.7
-9.2
-4.2
7.9
133.2
123.2
119.54
114.33
346
301
51.4
73.6
0.3
18.7
18.5
Mar-23
1.3
3.4
38.2
7.68
104.3
209
-1.1
-22.0
-3.3
39.1
-1.9
-11.4
-0.3
72.4
72.8
-18.1
-10.7
28.8
4.8
273
44.8
Q4 23
-4.3
-1.6
-4.2
-3.6
-0.2
-5.9
-1.6
7.9
173.1
148.5
139.31
127.46
578
462
93.0
108.5
2.6
18.4
15.8
Apr-23
-4.4
1.7
37.1
8.40
108.8
223
-0.2
-29.3
-11.5
35.0
0.6
3.2
12.4
84.0
71.6
16.0
-1.5
35.4
5.9
284
50.0
Q1 24
-5.5
-0.8
-5.8
-6.4
-2.5
-9.3
-3.6
8.4
208.2
187.0
131.38
125.09
794
686
124.4
126.6
1.9
17.3
15.4
May-23
-5.5
1.1
38.3
7.77
114.2
240
-1.1
-24.1
-6.3
33.0
0.5
3.1
9.7
87.8
78.1
4.5
9.0
39.5
6.1
283
42.2
Q2 24
-2.2
0.8
-3.7
-3.4
-2.3
-5.1
-2.5
8.5
203.6
185.4
106.38
97.50
936
865
138.3
144.8
3.0
21.1
18.2
Jun-23
-4.4
-2.4
41.8
5.95
115.6
257
-1.8
-35.8
-16.3
27.9
0.1
1.0
6.3
88.2
81.9
0.4
4.9
43.5
6.4
289
37.5
Q3 24
0.0
1.3
0.1
-0.3
-1.8
2.2
0.3
8.4
166.9
164.6
91.38
82.06
1,054
995
158.6
184.0
1.9
21.0
19.1
Jul-23
-3.9
43.6
6.34
113.4
275
-0.6
-22.4
-19.1
24.1
0.4
3.6
2.6
91.6
89.0
3.8
8.7
43.7
5.9
296
29.9
Q4 24
2.6
1.5
3.4
2.7
-0.4
6.1
1.8
8.0
121.0
126.5
82.85
75.96
1,193
1,123
176.3
222.9
3.2
20.1
16.9
Aug-23
44.1
350
27.8
Notes: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 25
September 2023
Argentina
Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product
1 | Real GDP | 2011-2027 | var. in %
3 | GDP 2023 | evolution of forecasts
2 | Real GDP | Q4 20-Q4 24 | var. in %.
4 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts
5 | GDP 2023 | Panelist Distribution
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Argentina report due to space constraints. A full panelist
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file.
General:
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute
(INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast. The Consensus Forecast for domestic demand contains a range of definitions.
1 GDP, annual variation in %.
2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts
ABECEB
Alphacast
Analytica Consultora
Aurum Valores
Banco de Galicia
Banco Supervielle
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
BBVA Argentina
C&T Asesores
Capital Economics
Credicorp Capital
DekaBank
Eco Go
Ecolatina
Econométrica S.A.
Econosignal
Econviews
EIU
EmergingMarketWatch
EMFI
Empiria Consultores
Equilibra
Euromonitor Int.
FIEL
Fitch Solutions
FMyA
FrontierView
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Invecq Consulting
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
LCG
MAP
MAPFRE Economics
OJF & Asociados
Oxford Economics
Pantheon Macroeconomics
Pezco Economics
Quantum Finanzas
S&P Global Ratings
Santander
Standard Chartered
Torino Capital
UBS
UIA - CEU
VDC Consultora
Others (5)**
Public Forecasts
CEPAL
OECD
World Bank
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2023
-3.0
-3.5
-2.7
-3.2
-3.2
-3.3
-3.5
-3.0
-3.5
-3.1
-3.5
-3.7
-2.2
-3.3
-2.5
-2.8
-3.0
-3.5
-2.8
-2.5
-4.5
-3.3
-3.0
-2.7
-2.0
-2.3
-3.3
-2.0
-2.1
-2.5
-3.5
-3.0
-3.3
-2.6
-3.4
-3.5
-1.5
-3.2
-2.0
-2.3
-2.4
-3.5
-2.0
-4.0
-1.6
-1.9
-1.8
-3.5
-2.4
-2.5
2024
0.5
1.2
-1.2
-2.7
-1.8
-4.5
-2.0
-1.4
-2.0
-1.2
0.1
-2.5
-2.9
1.0
-0.5
-2.1
-3.0
-1.2
-2.7
-2.5
-0.3
0.5
-2.8
-1.2
0.0
-0.5
0.0
-2.5
-1.7
-1.8
-6.3
-3.0
0.2
-0.1
0.8
-1.0
0.0
2.0
0.5
2.7
1.6
-0.3
0.5
-3.0
-1.6
-2.0
-1.6
1.1
2.3
-4.5
-1.2
-3.0
-2.8
-6.3
2.7
-0.7
-0.8
-2.5
-2.5
-2.4
-0.3
-0.2
0.1
| 26
September 2023
Argentina
Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Consumption and Investment
Individual Forecasts
ABECEB
Analytica Consultora
Banco de Galicia
Banco Supervielle
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
BBVA Argentina
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Credicorp Capital
Eco Go
Ecolatina
Econométrica S.A.
Econviews
EIU
Empiria Consultores
Euromonitor Int.
FIEL
Fitch Solutions
FMyA
FrontierView
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Invecq Consulting
LCG
MAPFRE Economics
Moody's Analytics
OJF & Asociados
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Quantum Finanzas
S&P Global Ratings
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
OECD
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
6 | Consumption | variation in %
Consumption
variation in %
2023
2024
-0.8
1.5
0.9
-2.1
-4.6
-4.3
-3.0
-0.9
-2.2
1.7
1.0
-4.3
1.2
-3.9
-0.7
-4.2
-1.2
-4.8
-3.1
-0.7
-3.0
-0.4
-3.3
-4.9
-2.0
1.9
-2.8
0.2
-0.4
-2.7
-2.3
-0.7
-4.4
1.0
-1.9
-2.4
1.3
4.5
0.9
0.0
-3.5
-1.8
-2.7
-0.4
-1.4
0.2
-2.5
-0.8
-1.3
-3.4
0.0
-3.8
-2.4
0.8
0.4
-3.6
-2.6
-1.8
1.1
Investment
variation in %
2023
2024
-3.8
7.0
-8.1
-8.8
-4.0
-10.0
-2.7
-5.4
-4.5
-26.5
5.1
-10.2
-4.9
-4.7
0.0
-8.4
-7.5
-8.6
-6.1
-6.4
-5.0
-3.6
-5.0
5.5
-9.8
-2.2
-8.7
-6.5
-9.1
-7.5
-4.0
1.0
-1.2
-6.0
1.3
-0.8
-9.5
-1.5
-11.0
-4.0
-8.4
-1.6
-1.3
-4.9
-0.1
1.8
-7.3
-4.8
0.0
-8.0
1.7
1.6
-4.0
-4.5
1.0
-1.8
1.2
-6.7
0.9
-4.3
4.5
-1.9
-1.5
-4.9
1.5
-0.7
-1.4
-11.0
1.7
-6.3
-6.2
-26.5
7.0
-1.3
-2.1
-1.2
-1.5
-2.4
-0.5
-0.4
0.1
-5.6
-6.1
-6.1
0.1
0.4
0.9
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
8 | Investment | variation in %
9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
6
7
8
9
Private consumption, annual variation in %.
Private consumption, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 27
September 2023
Argentina
Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Industry and Unemployment
Individual Forecasts
ABECEB
Banco de Galicia
Banco Supervielle
BancTrust & Co.
BBVA Argentina
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Credicorp Capital
Eco Go
Ecolatina
Econométrica S.A.
Econviews
EIU
Empiria Consultores
Equilibra
Euromonitor Int.
FIEL
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
HSBC
Invecq Consulting
LCG
MAP
Moody's Analytics
OJF & Asociados
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Quantum Finanzas
S&P Global Ratings
Torino Capital
UBS
UIA - CEU
VDC Consultora
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
10 | Industry | variation in %
Industry
variation in %
2023
2024
1.1
-0.4
-3.2
-2.9
-1.2
1.0
0.6
-2.7
-2.2
-0.3
1.0
0.7
0.2
-0.5
-0.3
-1.1
-3.2
-2.2
-1.6
-2.7
0.8
0.4
-1.4
0.5
-0.1
-0.5
-1.9
0.0
2.0
0.5
-3.0
0.7
-1.1
Unemployment
% of active pop.
2023
2024
9.3
8.3
7.8
7.6
8.1
7.7
9.5
9.0
8.0
8.1
9.2
7.8
8.3
8.6
7.5
7.5
8.6
7.3
7.3
8.0
7.5
9.0
9.2
8.3
7.4
8.4
8.2
7.8
7.0
7.5
9.5
8.4
7.4
8.1
9.4
7.3
7.2
7.5
8.0
7.9
8.1
9.0
8.0
7.0
7.6
8.2
7.7
8.1
8.8
8.3
8.5
9.0
8.5
6.8
8.0
7.5
-
-3.2
1.0
-1.2
-1.2
-2.9
2.0
0.2
0.0
6.8
8.5
7.6
7.7
7.3
9.5
8.5
8.6
-1.4
-1.7
-1.9
0.6
0.6
0.9
7.7
7.8
7.9
8.4
8.5
8.5
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts
12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
10 Industrial production, annual variation in %.
11 Industrial production, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 28
September 2023
Argentina
Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Fiscal Balance and Public Debt
Individual Forecasts
ABECEB
Alphacast
Analytica Consultora
Aurum Valores
Banco de Galicia
Banco Supervielle
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
BBVA Argentina
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Credicorp Capital
DekaBank
Eco Go
Ecolatina
Econométrica S.A.
Econviews
EIU
EMFI
Empiria Consultores
Equilibra
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FMyA
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Invecq Consulting
JPMorgan
LCG
MAP
MAPFRE Economics
Moody's Analytics
OJF & Asociados
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Torino Capital
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
Fiscal Balance
% of GDP
2023
-4.3
-5.4
-4.6
-5.3
-4.6
-4.1
-4.8
-3.2
-4.6
-4.9
-4.9
-4.7
-4.2
-4.0
-4.0
-4.1
-4.6
-4.2
-4.7
-3.9
-4.2
-5.6
-3.9
-4.8
-4.5
-4.3
-4.6
-5.2
-3.9
-4.1
-3.8
-4.3
-4.1
-5.3
-4.0
2024
-2.8
-2.5
-2.1
-1.6
-2.4
-1.7
-3.2
-3.7
-2.0
-3.1
-3.0
-2.1
-2.8
-2.0
-2.2
-1.1
-1.9
-3.8
-2.2
-1.9
-5.0
-1.9
-1.0
-2.0
-2.5
-1.0
-2.9
-4.7
-3.9
-3.0
-3.4
Public Debt
% of GDP
2024
2023
83.8
80.7
67.2
100.8
92.8
76.9
95.3
120.8
92.1
101.5
83.4
86.2
90.6
93.9
80.0
83.3
88.2
86.9
80.7
85.0
81.6
78.0
-
-5.6
-3.2
-4.3
-4.4
-5.0
-1.0
-2.4
-2.6
78.0
120.8
87.5
90.7
67.2
101.5
82.5
84.1
-4.4
-4.5
-4.5
-2.6
-2.6
-2.8
88.2
85.2
82.5
83.3
82.1
77.8
15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
17 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Ministry of Economy. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.
14
15
16
17
Fiscal balance % of GDP.
Fical balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
Public debt as % of GDP.
Public debt as % of GDP evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 29
September 2023
Argentina
Monetary Sector | Inflation
Consumer Prices
Individual Forecasts
ABECEB
Alphacast
Analytica Consultora
Aurum Valores
Banco de Galicia
Banco Supervielle
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
BBVA Argentina
C&T Asesores
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Credicorp Capital
DekaBank
Eco Go
Ecolatina
Econométrica S.A.
Econosignal
Econviews
EIU
EmergingMarketWatch
EMFI
Empiria Consultores
Equilibra
Euromonitor Int.
FIEL
Fitch Solutions
FMyA
FrontierView
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Invecq Consulting
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
LCG
MAP
MAPFRE Economics
Moody's Analytics
OJF & Asociados
Oxford Economics
Pantheon Macroeconomics
Pezco Economics
Quantum Finanzas
S&P Global Ratings
Santander
Standard Chartered
Torino Capital
UBS
VDC Consultora
Others (4)**
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
14 | Inflation | 2011 - 2027 | in %
Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop
2024
2023
115.8
143.8
189.8
178.7
86.0
171.0
106.3
198.1
168.4
169.8
184.6
148.3
155.0
115.0
155.0
200.0
125.3
162.4
142.2
144.3
160.0
120.0
131.6
162.6
225.7
101.9
161.5
161.0
114.9
130.0
171.3
150.0
180.0
184.5
66.4
200.0
150.0
180.5
147.6
146.3
171.4
155.0
180.0
186.6
145.0
45.0
102.1
203.8
140.0
93.2
120.0
152.1
210.0
120.0
95.0
145.0
150.0
140.0
195.8
101.9
104.3
169.3
70.6
131.8
131.3
100.4
168.4
174.1
145.8
83.7
122.0
126.3
191.0
83.0
100.0
145.0
182.4
107.8
140.9
112.7
110.8
167.3
160.0
90.0
Consumer Prices
variation in %, aop
2024
2023
137.2
121.5
170.6
129.1
203.4
133.5
217.6
127.3
130.1
205.5
125.5
164.3
233.9
134.5
155.5
125.0
125.0
155.2
112.9
116.1
129.6
221.2
124.5
197.4
105.4
153.0
137.7
229.2
129.1
129.9
139.5
128.7
172.5
200.6
129.0
228.0
128.5
95.9
59.4
136.2
120.0
109.8
190.5
131.7
101.0
114.2
120.2
117.6
142.6
122.4
167.0
149.9
120.1
150.0
124.6
129.3
183.5
164.5
125.6
97.9
119.6
118.1
116.6
127.5
192.1
116.7
126.2
100.0
115.0
124.2
110.6
127.0
182.0
124.9
121.1
134.3
126.5
108.7
118.8
128.7
150.7
126.9
115.1
106.8
107.8
225.7
162.6
163.0
45.0
210.0
115.8
121.6
95.9
170.6
125.0
124.5
59.4
233.9
150.0
152.0
138.0
139.2
134.9
113.4
114.3
111.6
116.1
116.0
112.1
130.3
129.1
120.8
15 | Inflation | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in %
16 | Inflation 2023 | evolution of fcst
17 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
| 30
September 2023
Argentina
Monetary Sector | Interest Rate
18 | Interest Rate | 2011 - 2027 | in %
20 | Int. Rate 2023 | evolution of fcst
19 | Interest Rate | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in %
21 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst
22 | Interest Rate 2023 | Panelist Distribution
Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Individual Forecasts
ABECEB
Alphacast
Analytica Consultora
Banco de Galicia
Banco Supervielle
BancTrust & Co.
BBVA Argentina
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Credicorp Capital
Eco Go
Ecolatina
Econosignal
Econviews
EIU
Empiria Consultores
Equilibra
Fitch Solutions
FMyA
HSBC
Invecq Consulting
LCG
MAP
OJF & Asociados
Oxford Economics
Pantheon Macroeconomics
Quantum Finanzas
Santander
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2023
125.00
120.00
125.00
160.00
139.00
175.00
138.00
150.00
150.00
141.00
140.00
130.00
118.00
130.00
135.00
122.00
175.00
140.00
130.00
118.00
120.00
135.00
138.00
123.00
118.00
125.00
205.00
140.00
2024
77.00
40.00
76.00
65.00
60.00
140.00
60.00
98.00
40.00
100.00
90.00
40.00
75.00
28.10
50.00
85.00
65.00
80.00
131.00
118.00
80.00
34.00
-
118.00
205.00
135.00
138.04
28.10
140.00
75.50
74.19
107.42
107.91
104.77
74.90
75.83
77.50
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Argentina report due to space constraints. A full panelist
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the The Central Bank of the
Argentine Republic (BCRA, Banco Central de la República Argentina) and the National Statistical
Institute and the government of the autonomous city of Buenos Aires (Gobierno de la ciudad
autónoma de Buenos Aires). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index in % (aop). Source: INDEC.
15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index in % (aop).
16 Inflation, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
17 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
18 7-day LELIQ rate in % (eop). Source: BCRA.
19 Quarterly interest rate, 7-day LELIQ rate in % (eop).
20 Interest rate, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
22 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 31
September 2023
Argentina
Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate
23 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD
25 | ARS per USD 2023 | evol. of fcst
24 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD
26 | ARS per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst
27 | ARS per USD 2023 | Panelist Distribution
Exchange Rate | ARS per USD
Individual Forecasts
ABECEB
Alphacast
Analytica Consultora
Aurum Valores
Banco de Galicia
Banco Supervielle
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
BBVA Argentina
C&T Asesores
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Credicorp Capital
Eco Go
Ecolatina
Econosignal
Econviews
EIU
EMFI
Empiria Consultores
Equilibra
FIEL
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FMyA
HSBC
Invecq Consulting
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
LCG
MAP
MAPFRE Economics
OJF & Asociados
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Quantum Finanzas
S&P Global Ratings
Santander
Standard Chartered
UBS
VDC Consultora
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2023
482
496
542
750
641
515
563
490
630
630
400
525
566
936
465
548
754
587
417
487
585
612
425
700
672
400
640
615
750
705
655
383
507
509
444
705
415
529
490
430
567
2024
1,062
1,100
1,117
1,488
1,366
1,120
1,493
1,066
600
1,050
1,010
1,368
1,318
1,250
1,508
960
899
1,090
1,400
1,127
1,200
1,101
1,100
1,223
1,059
638
1,784
959
567
1,300
800
745
850
1,217
383
936
548
565
567
1,784
1,100
1,116
458
452
428
922
924
889
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Macrobond Financial AB.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
23
24
25
26
27
Exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop).
Quarterly exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop).
Exchange rate, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 32
September 2023
Argentina
External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance
Current Account and Trade Balance
Individual Forecasts
ABECEB
Alphacast
Analytica Consultora
Banco de Galicia
Banco Supervielle
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
BBVA Argentina
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Credicorp Capital
DekaBank
Eco Go
Ecolatina
Econométrica S.A.
Econosignal
Econviews
EIU
EMFI
Empiria Consultores
Equilibra
Euromonitor Int.
FIEL
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FMyA
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Invecq Consulting
JPMorgan
LCG
MAP
MAPFRE Economics
Moody's Analytics
OJF & Asociados
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Quantum Finanzas
Standard Chartered
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
OECD
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
28 | Current Account | % of GDP
Current Account
% of GDP
2023
2024
-3.1
-1.8
-2.0
-1.4
2.2
0.7
-3.6
4.9
-2.9
-3.6
-1.3
-0.8
0.3
-1.2
1.0
0.3
-2.2
-1.7
-2.3
-2.5
3.6
0.6
-2.3
-0.3
1.5
-0.3
-3.1
3.1
-2.8
-1.0
-2.0
-1.7
3.4
-1.1
-2.6
-1.7
-1.7
0.1
0.8
-2.8
-2.0
-0.2
0.2
0.2
-1.3
-2.3
-3.0
-2.6
2.0
-1.5
-2.8
-0.8
-2.5
0.2
-1.1
1.8
1.6
-2.2
-3.0
-2.7
3.2
-2.5
1.9
-1.4
-2.3
-2.3
1.5
0.5
-0.4
-1.2
-1.7
-0.4
Trade Balance
USD bn
2023
-3.4
8.5
-0.3
-2.3
-6.7
-6.0
0.5
-1.0
6.9
-3.7
-2.8
4.8
-1.0
-2.4
-2.5
-4.9
1.0
-3.3
-1.8
-2.0
-3.9
4.8
-2.0
-
2024
9.2
17.7
25.2
10.2
9.0
15.4
12.9
9.2
24.4
18.0
21.0
-0.3
8.4
12.9
5.5
11.6
14.0
22.4
6.6
8.0
-
0.0
0.2
-
-
-3.6
1.8
-2.0
-1.9
-2.6
4.9
0.3
0.6
-6.7
8.5
-2.0
-0.3
-0.3
25.2
12.2
12.4
-1.8
-1.1
-0.9
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.5
2.8
4.7
12.2
8.8
11.1
29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
30 | Trade Balance | USD bn
31 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
28 Current account balance, as % of GDP.
29 Current account balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
30 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD billions.
31 Trade balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 33
September 2023
Argentina
External Sector | Exports and Imports
Exports and Imports
Individual Forecasts
ABECEB
Alphacast
Analytica Consultora
Banco de Galicia
Banco Supervielle
BancTrust & Co.
BBVA Argentina
Citigroup Global Mkts
Eco Go
Ecolatina
Econométrica S.A.
Econosignal
Econviews
EIU
EMFI
Empiria Consultores
Equilibra
Euromonitor Int.
FIEL
Fitch Ratings
FMyA
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Invecq Consulting
LCG
MAP
OJF & Asociados
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Quantum Finanzas
Torino Capital
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
32 | Exports | variation in %
Exports
USD bn
2023
70.1
86.6
66.6
70.3
68.7
67.6
66.9
70.8
71.8
70.0
78.4
71.3
68.1
71.0
76.8
72.0
69.0
77.1
75.0
75.2
67.7
68.1
69.3
71.1
66.5
69.8
69.0
72.0
82.2
69.0
94.9
74.7
2024
83.5
85.5
81.7
80.9
80.3
88.5
82.0
86.0
86.2
91.2
83.1
84.9
88.5
84.1
83.8
90.3
84.5
78.3
77.0
82.6
85.4
91.0
67.3
87.1
88.0
82.7
Imports
USD bn
2023
73.5
78.1
70.6
71.0
74.3
72.9
71.3
71.0
71.5
75.0
70.9
75.4
67.1
70.0
79.5
77.5
72.6
68.2
74.4
68.3
71.7
72.9
77.4
71.0
-
2024
74.2
67.8
56.5
70.7
71.3
66.5
73.1
77.0
66.8
66.9
67.5
84.4
75.4
71.6
71.5
71.0
71.4
68.6
80.5
80.0
-
66.5
94.9
70.5
72.4
67.3
91.2
84.3
84.0
67.1
79.5
72.2
72.8
56.5
84.4
71.3
71.6
73.2
74.8
76.0
84.7
82.7
85.8
72.7
72.0
71.3
72.5
73.9
74.7
33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
34 | Imports | variation in %
35 | Imports | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
32 Exports, annual variation in %.
33 Exports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 Imports, annual variation in %.
35 Imports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 34
September 2023
Argentina
External Sector | Additional forecasts
International Reserves and External Debt
Individual Forecasts
ABECEB
Banco de Galicia
Banco Supervielle
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
Citigroup Global Mkts
Credicorp Capital
Eco Go
Econométrica S.A.
Econviews
EIU
Equilibra
Euromonitor Int.
FIEL
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FMyA
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Invecq Consulting
JPMorgan
LCG
MAP
Moody's Analytics
OJF & Asociados
Oxford Economics
Quantum Finanzas
Torino Capital
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
36 | Int. Reserves | months of imports
International Reserves
USD bn
2024
2023
34.0
24.9
24.8
23.4
35.2
22.2
26.2
30.0
38.0
20.9
42.1
31.4
44.9
40.0
29.0
36.5
32.7
30.2
20.0
37.0
30.1
33.1
27.2
34.0
20.8
19.8
29.4
27.0
33.9
39.5
37.4
45.4
28.0
32.0
32.2
52.1
29.6
33.5
27.5
35.2
30.0
40.0
41.0
25.0
27.5
External Debt
USD bn
2024
2023
275
283
272
274
273
290
280
293
281
311
260
274
277
266
263
271
282
282
20.0
41.0
29.2
28.8
19.8
52.1
35.2
35.4
260
282
274
273
263
311
283
284
32.2
34.9
37.3
37.9
41.1
43.2
274
275
276
277
278
278
37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
38 | External Debt | % of GDP
39 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
36 International reserves, months of imports.
37 International reserves, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 External debt as % of GDP.
39 External debt, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 35
September 2023
Argentina
Fact Sheet
General Data
Argentina in the Region
Argentine Republic
Buenos Aires (15.1 m)
Córdoba (1.6 m)
Rosario (1.4 m)
2,780,400
45.8
16.5
0.9
77.8
0.9
Spanish
Metric system
GMT-3
Official name:
Capital:
Other cities:
Area (km2):
Population (million, 2019 est.):
Population density (per km2, 2019):
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.):
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.):
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018):
Language:
Measures:
Time:
Economic Infrastructure
GDP | %-share in Latin America
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants):
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.):
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants):
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants):
22.0
132
75.8
19.1
Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu):
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu):
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h):
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h):
Oil Supply (thousand bpd):
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd):
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons):
Transportation (2018)
Airports:
Railways (km):
Roadways (km):
Waterways (km):
Chief Ports:
Population | %-share in Latin America
GDP by Sector | share in %
GDP by Expenditure | share in %
3,157
3,868
138
125
678
752
200
1,138
36,917
281,290
11,000
Buenos Aires, Bahía Blanca
Trade Structure
Primary markets | share in %
Political Data
President:
Last elections:
Next elections:
Central Bank President:
Alberto Fernández
27 October 2019
23 October 2023
Miguel Ángel Pesce
Exports
Imports
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
Rating
Ca
CCCC
Agency
Moody's:
S&P Global Ratings:
Fitch Ratings:
Strengths
• Rich in natural resources
• Large producer of agricultural
commodities
• Diversified industrial base
Outlook
Stable
Negative
-
Primary products | share in %
Weaknesses
• High fiscal deficit
• External debt repayment risks
• Runaway inflation
• Extreme currency weakness
• Interventionist policies
• Highly-taxed country
.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
Exports
Imports
| 36
Brazil
•
The economy defied market expectations in Q2, with both quarter-onquarter and annual GDP growth markedly overshooting projections. That
said, sequential growth slowed from Q1, partly due to a base effect and the
cumulative 1,175 basis points of Central Bank hikes cooling the economy.
From the production point of view, Q2’s slowdown was chiefly due to
the agricultural sector declining amid the base effect from Q1’s record
harvest. Regarding expenditure, private spending growth accelerated
in Q2, supported by softer price pressures, a falling unemployment
rate and fiscal stimulus—such as increases in minimum wages and the
Bolsa Família welfare program. In Q3, the economy should be stable in
sequential terms. That said, in early September, a cyclone hit the south
of the country, causing heavy flooding and likely hampering activity at the
tail-end of Q3.
•
Our panelists have once again upgraded their 2023 GDP forecasts
over the last month, likely due to a stronger-than-anticipated economic
expansion in Q2. Growth is now seen slowing only slightly from 2022
this year as lower interest rates, softer inflation, fiscal stimulus, a lower
unemployment rate and a bumper harvest will all support activity.
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.4% in 2023, which is
up by 0.4 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 1.4%
in 2024.
•
In July, inflation rose to a three-month high of 4.0% (June: 3.2%),
surpassing the Central Bank (BCB)’s 3.25% target for this year and
overshooting market expectations. Inflation will pick up in the remainder of
2023 from current levels due to lower interest rates, a weaker real, fiscal
stimulus and higher fuel prices—with the latter partly due to the recent
reinstatement of a federal tax. FocusEconomics panelists see consumer
prices rising 4.8% on average in 2023, which is down by 0.2 percentage
points from one month ago, and rising 4.2% on average in 2024.
•
At its latest meeting on 1–2 August, the BCB kicked off its loosening cycle
more aggressively than markets had anticipated, delivering a 50 basis
point cut that lowered the SELIC rate to 13.25%. The Bank hinted it would
make a same-size cut when it next convenes on 19–20 September. Our
panelists see between 25–200 basis points of additional cuts by year-end.
FocusEconomics panelists see the SELIC rate ending 2023 at 11.83%
and ending 2024 at 9.08%.
•
The real traded at BRL 4.98 per USD on 7 September, depreciating
1.4% month on month. The real’s weakening was likely limited by GDP
growth in Q2 overshooting expectations. Going ahead, the currency
is expected to end the year close to its current value, but a dwindling
interest rate differential compared to the U.S. Fed is a depreciatory risk.
FocusEconomics panelists see the real ending 2023 at BRL 4.95 per USD
and ending 2024 at BRL 5.08 per USD.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
2019-21
212
1,666
7,881
1.0
-7.8
79.9
5.1
-2.8
19.3
2022-24
215
2,095
9,736
2.3
-6.4
76.2
6.1
-2.4
15.6
2025-27
219
2,480
11,302
2.0
-5.8
83.4
3.6
-2.4
-
Marta Casanovas
Economist
Economic Growth
Change in GDP forecasts
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024
2020 - Q4 2024.
forecasts during the last 12 months.
Inflation
Brazil
Outlook improves
Brazil
Population (million):
GDP (USD bn):
GDP per capita (USD):
GDP growth (%):
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP):
Public Debt (% of GDP):
Inflation (%):
Current Account (% of GDP):
External Debt (% of GDP):
September 2023
Change in inflation forecasts
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2023 and 2024
average variation in %, Q4 2020 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2024.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 37
Brazil
Gross Domestic Product | variation in %
Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-onyear variation %.
Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
September 2023
REAL SECTOR | GDP growth slows in Q2
GDP growth slowed to 0.9% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis
in the second quarter, down from 1.8% in the first quarter; the cumulative 1,175
basis points in Central Bank hikes from March 2021 to August 2022 succeeded
in cooling the economy. Despite the slowdown, the result outperformed market
expectations: Market analysts had anticipated a 0.3% increase.
The quarterly slowdown was largely due to the external sector detracting from
overall growth. More positively, there was a broad-based improvement on the
domestic front: Household spending growth edged up to 0.9% seasonally
adjusted quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter (Q1: +0.7% s.a. qoq),
marking the best reading in a year. The acceleration was largely supported
by softer price pressures in Q2, a fall in the unemployment rate (Q2: 8.3%;
Q1: 8.6%) and fiscal stimulus under the new administration. That said, stillelevated interest rates likely capped the overall improvement. Moreover,
government spending accelerated to a 0.7% increase in Q2 (Q1: +0.4% s.a.
qoq) and fixed investment rebounded, growing 0.1% in Q2, contrasting the
3.4% decrease recorded in the prior quarter.
Turning to the external sector, exports of goods and services increased 2.9% on
a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis in the second quarter, which was above
the first quarter’s 0.3% expansion. Meanwhile, imports of goods and services
bounced back, growing 4.5% in Q2 (Q1: -3.9% s.a. qoq). Consequently, the
external sector detracted from overall growth.
On an annual basis, economic growth moderated to 3.4% in Q2, following the
previous period’s 4.0% increase. Despite the moderation, the result surprised
markets on the upside as market analysts had penciled in a 2.7% year-onyear expansion.
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.4% in 2023, which is up
by 0.4 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 1.4% in 2024.
Monthly Indicator for Economic Activity | variation in %
REAL SECTOR | Activity returns to growth in June
The Brazilian economy ended the second quarter on a sweeter note: Activity
returned to growth and posted a 0.6% month-on-month seasonally adjusted
expansion in June. The upturn, which was an improvement from May’s
whopping 2.1% monthly contraction, marginally overshot market expectations.
On an annual basis, economic activity growth eased to 2.1% in June, down
from May’s 2.3% year-on-year increase. Accordingly, the trend pointed down,
with annual average growth in economic activity coming in at 3.4% in June,
down from May’s 3.5% reading.
Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted IBC-Br (Indice de
Atividade Economica do Banco Central) and year-on-year changes in %.
Source: Central Bank of Brazil.
Meanwhile, retail sales flatlined in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms
in June, improving from the 0.7% decline tallied in May. Conversely, industrial
output contracted 0.6% month on month in seasonally adjusted terms in July,
deteriorating from the prior month’s flat reading.
REAL SECTOR | Services sector conditions improve in August
The S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.6
in August, up from the prior month’s 50.2. As such, the index moved further
above the 50.0 no-change threshold, signaling a stronger improvement in
services sector operating conditions compared to the previous month.
August’s upturn chiefly reflected new orders expanding at a quicker rate than
in the prior month. This, coupled with contracts in the pipeline and improved
sales expectations for the year ahead, prompted firms to onboard staff, with
the job creation rate accelerating from July.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 38
Brazil
Services Purchasing Managers’ Index
Note: S&P Global Brazil Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A reading
above 50 indicates an overall increase compared to the previous month, while a
value below 50 indicates an overall decrease.
Source: S&P Global.
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index
September 2023
Turning to prices, while input cost inflation was among the weakest in the
past three years, it accelerated in August from July due to higher energy,
fuel, water and insurance prices, as well as rising wage costs and exchange
rate movements. Still, selling prices rose at the slowest pace since November
2020. Lastly, firms’ sentiment rose to a 10-month high in August due to the
kickoff of the Central Bank’s loosening monetary policy cycle and expectations
of higher sales in the coming year.
REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing conditions improve for the first time in
10 months in August
The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to a
10-month high of 50.1 in August, up from July’s 47.8. As such, the index broke
through the 50.0 no-change threshold; the index had been below the threshold
for the prior nine months. This signaled an improvement in manufacturing
sector operating conditions compared to the previous month.
August’s upturn came on the back of factory orders expanding for the first
time in ten months amid improving domestic demand. Consequently, output
grew in the month following nine consecutive months of declines. As a result,
firms onboarded staff, with employment rising for the first time since October
2022. Meanwhile, vendor performance improved at one of the strongest rates
in over 17 years. Less positively, foreign demand eased further, leading to
another decline in export orders.
Turning to prices, input costs fell at one of the steepest rates since the survey
began in February 2006. Consequently, output charges decreased at a steep
pace, in part due to increased promotional efforts to attract customers.
Note: S&P Global Brazil Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).
A reading above 50 indicates an overall increase compared to the previous
month, while a value below 50 indicates an overall decrease.
Source: S&P Global.
Consumer and Business Confidence Indices
REAL SECTOR | Consumer sentiment improves while business
sentiment deteriorates further in August
The seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index published by the Getulio
Vargas Foundation (Fundação Getúlio Vargas) rose to 96.8 in August, up from
the prior month’s 94.8. August’s result marked the strongest reading since
February 2014. As such, the index moved closer to, but remained below, the
100-point threshold, indicating milder pessimism among Brazilian consumers.
Conversely, the seasonally adjusted industrial business confidence index
dropped to 91.4 in August, deteriorating from July’s 91.9. August’s result was
the weakest sentiment since July 2020. As such, the index moved further
below the 100-point threshold, signaling starker pessimism among industrial
firms.
Note: Consumer and industrial business confidence indexes (seasonally
adjusted). The 100-point threshold represents the point above which consumers
and industrial businesses expect economic conditions to improve.
Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation (Fundação Getúlio Vargas).
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation increases in July
Inflation came in at 4.0% in July, up from June’s 3.2%. July’s result was
markedly above the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB)’s 3.25% target for the year
and overshot market expectations of a 3.9% increase. Looking at the details
of the release, the acceleration was largely due to housing prices rising at a
slightly quicker pace in July compared to the previous month. Moreover, prices
for transport grew 0.3% year on year, swinging from a 5.7% annual decline
the prior month. The increase was due to the reinstatement of a federal tax on
fuels. These developments more than offset easing price pressures for food
and beverages.
Still, the trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in at 5.4%
in July (June: 5.9%).
Finally, consumer prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.12% in July over the
previous month, contrasting June’s 0.08% drop.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 39
Brazil
Inflation | Consumer Price Index
September 2023
In August, state-controlled oil company Petrolero Brasileiro hiked gas and
diesel prices by 16% and 26%, respectively. Higher fuel prices, coupled with
the start of the BCB’s loosening cycle in early August, will likely see inflation
revert its recent downward path and pick up in the remainder of H2 2023,
missing the Central Bank’s target for the year. That said, a pickup in inflation
in the coming months is unlikely to deter the BCB from cutting rates further,
though the Bank is likely to rule out cuts larger than 50 basis points.
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 4.8% on average in
2023, which is down by 0.2 percentage points from one month ago, and rising
4.2% on average in 2024.
Note: Annual and monthly var. of IPCA consumer price index in %.
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
Current Account Balance | USD billion
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Current account posts deficit in July
Brazil’s current account recorded a USD 3.6 billion deficit in July, improving
from the USD 5.3 billion shortfall posted in July 2022 but deteriorating from the
USD 1.3 billion deficit tallied the prior month.
In July, the goods trade balance widened to a USD 7.2 billion surplus compared
to the same month last year. Meanwhile, the services account deficit was
unchanged from July 2022. Lastly, net foreign investment was positive in July
but lower than in the same month last year, totaling USD 4.2 billion in inflows
(July 2022: USD +7.2 billion).
Meanwhile, the 12-month sum of the current account balance widened to a
USD 51.1 billion shortfall in July from the USD 48.8 billion deficit clocked in
July 2022. This was equivalent to approximately 2.5% of GDP (July 2022:
approximately 2.7% of GDP).
Note: Monthly and 12-month current account balance in USD billion.
Source: Central Bank of Brazil (BCB).
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
FocusEconomics panelists see the current account posting a deficit of 2.1% of
GDP in 2023, which is unchanged from one month ago, and posting a deficit
of 2.3% of GDP in 2024.
| 40
September 2023
Brazil
Economic Indicators | 2018 - 2027
Annual Data
Real Sector
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (BRL bn)
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %)
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %)
Private Consumption (ann. var. %)
Government Consumption (ann. var. %)
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %)
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %)
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %)
Industrial Production (ann. var. %)
Retail Sales (ann. var. %)
Unemployment (% of active population, aop)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Monetary and Financial Sector
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)
SELIC Rate (%, eop)
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop)
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, aop)
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (USD bn)
Merchandise Imports (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %)
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %)
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn)
International Reserves (USD bn)
International Reserves (months of imports)
External Debt (USD bn)
External Debt (% of GDP)
Quarterly Data
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %)
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %)
Private Consumption (ann. var. %)
Government Consumption (ann. var. %)
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %)
Industrial Production (ann. var. %)
Retail Sales (ann. var. %)
Unemployment (% of active population, aop)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)
SELIC Rate (%, eop)
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, aop)
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (USD bn)
Merchandise Imports (USD bn)
Monthly Data
Economic Activity (IBC-Br, ann. var. %)
Economic Activity (IBC-Br, mom var. %)
Industrial Production (mom s.a. var. %)
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold)
S&P Global Services PMI (50-threshold)
Retail Sales (mom s.a. var. %)
Consumer Confidence (100-pt threshold, s.a.)
Business Confidence (100-pt threshold, s.a.)
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %)
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
208
9,192
1,917
7,004
6.4
1.8
2.3
2.4
0.8
5.2
4.1
7.7
0.8
2.3
12.4
-7.0
75.3
210
8,913
1,873
7,389
5.5
1.2
1.8
2.6
-0.5
4.0
-2.6
1.3
-1.1
1.8
12.1
-5.8
74.4
212
6,973
1,477
7,610
3.0
-3.3
-4.3
-4.6
-3.7
-1.7
-2.3
-9.5
-4.7
1.2
13.5
-13.3
86.9
213
7,756
1,649
8,899
16.9
5.0
5.8
3.7
3.5
16.5
5.9
12.0
4.2
1.4
13.5
-4.3
78.3
214
8,978
1,921
9,915
11.4
2.9
2.2
4.3
1.5
0.9
5.5
0.8
-0.7
1.0
9.5
-4.6
72.9
215
9,880
2,126
10,580
6.7
2.4
1.4
1.9
1.5
-1.7
5.5
0.5
0.4
1.5
8.4
-7.8
76.1
216
10,350
2,239
11,244
6.3
1.4
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.9
2.6
3.3
1.5
1.3
8.6
-6.9
79.6
217
10,702
2,327
11,922
6.0
2.0
2.1
2.0
1.0
2.8
3.2
3.2
1.9
1.8
8.7
-6.2
82.0
219
11,290
2,468
12,822
7.6
2.0
2.2
2.2
1.3
2.8
3.3
3.3
2.1
2.1
8.7
-5.8
83.8
222
11,914
2,644
13,785
7.5
2.1
2.0
2.1
1.5
2.4
3.2
3.2
2.0
2.1
8.3
-5.3
84.3
3.7
3.7
6.50
9.23
3.88
3.65
4.3
3.7
4.50
6.78
4.02
3.95
4.5
3.2
2.00
6.90
5.19
5.15
10.1
8.3
9.25
10.83
5.57
5.40
5.8
9.3
13.75
12.66
5.28
5.16
5.0
4.8
11.83
10.85
4.95
4.98
3.9
4.2
9.08
10.35
5.08
5.02
3.7
3.7
8.34
10.34
5.17
5.12
3.7
3.7
8.38
5.22
5.20
3.6
3.5
8.25
5.21
5.21
-2.9
-54.8
46.6
232
185
7.9
16.6
78.2
375
24.3
321
16.7
Q3 22
3.6
0.4
3.9
4.6
1.0
5.0
0.5
-0.4
8.9
7.2
8.6
13.75
5.41
5.25
-4.0
-19.2
13.2
89.2
76.1
Nov-22
0.9
-1.3
0.2
44.3
51.6
-0.7
85.3
93.3
0.41
5.9
5.26
-1.7
-3.6
-68.0
35.2
221
186
-4.6
0.3
69.2
357
23.0
323
17.2
Q4 22
1.9
0.1
1.0
4.3
0.5
3.5
0.7
1.4
8.1
5.8
6.1
13.75
5.28
5.25
-3.9
-18.9
14.1
80.8
66.7
Dec-22
0.9
0.8
0.0
44.2
51.0
-3.0
88.0
93.1
0.62
5.8
5.28
-11.5
-1.9
-28.2
50.4
209
159
-5.4
-14.6
37.8
356
26.9
311
21.0
Q1 23
4.0
1.8
3.4
3.5
1.2
0.8
-0.6
2.4
8.6
4.7
5.3
13.75
5.07
5.19
-2.6
-12.6
15.6
75.9
60.3
Jan-23
3.4
0.2
-0.3
47.5
50.7
4.1
85.8
92.0
0.53
5.8
5.09
-8.9
-2.8
-46.4
61.4
281
219
34.2
38.2
46.4
362
19.8
325
19.7
Q2 23
3.4
0.9
2.0
3.0
2.9
-2.6
-0.2
0.2
8.3
3.2
3.8
13.75
4.82
4.95
-0.4
-1.9
29.0
89.4
60.4
Feb-23
3.2
3.0
-0.2
49.2
49.8
-0.2
84.5
94.4
0.84
5.6
5.22
-4.4
-2.8
-53.6
61.5
334
273
19.0
24.2
87.2
325
14.3
320
16.6
Q3 23
1.8
0.0
1.3
1.4
-4.4
-0.1
1.0
8.0
5.4
4.7
12.80
4.87
4.85
-1.9
-10.3
21.1
87.0
65.9
Mar-23
5.9
-0.3
1.1
47.0
51.8
0.6
87.0
94.5
0.71
4.7
5.07
0.7
-2.1
-44.6
74.0
335
261
0.3
-4.2
343
15.7
321
15.1
Q4 23
2.0
0.0
0.4
0.9
-2.9
0.9
2.5
7.8
5.0
5.1
11.77
4.96
4.91
-2.9
-16.0
12.5
80.1
67.6
Apr-23
3.5
0.8
-0.7
44.3
54.5
-0.1
86.8
92.9
0.61
4.2
5.00
-0.9
-2.3
-50.8
64.5
339
274
1.1
5.0
348
15.2
340
15.2
Q1 24
0.8
0.5
1.1
1.6
0.0
1.3
1.0
8.5
4.2
4.6
10.64
4.99
4.97
-3.8
-21.0
12.5
74.7
62.2
May-23
2.3
-2.1
0.3
47.1
54.1
-0.7
88.2
94.0
0.23
3.9
5.12
0.2
-2.3
-54.3
66.4
350
283
3.2
3.3
358
15.1
Q2 24
1.2
0.5
0.9
1.3
2.2
1.3
0.5
8.6
4.3
4.1
9.75
5.01
5.00
-2.0
-11.4
24.7
90.9
66.1
Jun-23
2.1
0.6
0.0
46.6
53.3
0.0
92.3
94.0
-0.08
3.2
4.82
-1.3
-2.3
-57.9
71.0
372
301
6.4
6.3
363
14.5
Q3 24
1.7
0.5
1.2
1.5
2.7
1.7
1.0
8.4
4.1
4.2
9.31
5.06
5.04
-2.6
-14.8
18.1
88.4
70.3
Jul-23
-0.6
47.8
50.2
94.8
91.9
0.12
4.0
4.76
-3.6
-2.5
-65.4
81.5
412
330
10.5
9.5
377
13.7
Q4 24
2.1
0.5
2.1
2.1
3.0
2.1
1.1
8.2
4.0
3.9
9.04
5.09
5.08
-3.1
-17.5
13.6
84.3
70.7
Aug-23
50.1
50.6
96.8
91.4
4.95
-
Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 41
September 2023
Brazil
Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product
1 | Real GDP | 2011-2027 | var. in %
3 | GDP 2023 | evolution of forecasts
2 | Real GDP | Q4 20-Q4 24 | var. in %.
4 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts
5 | GDP 2023 | Panelist Distribution
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Brazil report due to space constraints. A full panelist
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography
and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1
2
3
4
5
GDP, real annual variation in %.
Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
GDP, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
GDP, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts
4intelligence
Actinver
Allianz
Banco BMG
Banco BV
Banco Cooperativo Sicredi
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A.
Barclays Capital
BNP Paribas
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
DekaBank
DIW Berlin
EIU
EmergingMarketWatch
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ifo Institut
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Julius Baer
KBC
Kiel Institute
Kínitro Capital
LCA Consultores
MAPFRE Economics
MB Associados
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pantheon Macroeconomics
Petros
Pezco Economics
Prometeia
Rabobank
S&P Global Ratings
Santander
Scotiabank
SEB
Standard Chartered
Tendências Consultoria Integrada
Torino Capital
UBS
Others (2)**
Public Forecasts
IMF
World Bank
Others (2)**
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2023
3.2
2.0
2.1
2.5
2.8
2.4
3.2
3.0
2.5
2.8
2.3
2.3
3.0
2.1
2.9
0.9
2.4
1.6
1.9
2.3
3.0
2.1
3.3
2.9
2.7
2.5
3.0
2.5
2.7
3.2
3.1
3.0
0.8
3.0
2.2
1.9
3.3
3.0
3.3
2.1
2.8
1.7
1.9
2.2
2.1
2.7
1.9
1.6
2.5
2.1
2024
1.8
1.6
1.2
1.2
1.5
1.5
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.0
0.8
1.5
1.6
1.0
1.4
1.6
1.6
2.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.7
1.3
2.0
1.4
1.5
1.2
0.4
0.9
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.0
2.0
2.3
0.8
2.0
1.0
1.9
0.8
1.6
1.5
1.0
1.5
1.9
1.7
1.3
1.5
1.3
2.1
1.2
2.1
1.2
1.4
1.3
0.8
3.3
2.5
2.4
0.4
2.3
1.5
1.4
2.0
1.9
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.5
| 42
September 2023
Brazil
Real Sector | Additional Forecasts
Consumption and Investment
Individual Forecasts
4intelligence
Banco BMG
Banco BV
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A.
Barclays Capital
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
JPMorgan
LCA Consultores
MAPFRE Economics
MB Associados
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Rabobank
S&P Global Ratings
Société Générale
Tendências Consultoria Integrada
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
IMF
OECD
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
6 | Consumption | variation in %
Consumption
variation in %
2024
2023
1.7
2.9
1.5
2.3
1.5
3.0
2.1
2.9
2.0
2.5
1.5
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.6
2.6
1.4
2.4
0.7
2.6
1.8
1.2
1.5
2.3
1.8
1.0
1.5
2.8
3.0
2.6
2.0
2.5
1.6
1.0
0.2
2.5
1.9
-1.2
1.3
1.1
-0.8
3.1
1.7
2.7
1.5
1.7
1.6
1.2
1.0
1.7
0.9
0.1
1.5
1.1
Investment
variation in %
2024
2023
3.4
-1.6
-2.0
-2.2
2.0
0.5
5.0
-1.7
2.5
-1.5
-0.5
-3.6
1.1
-2.5
2.2
-1.1
2.2
0.1
0.8
0.2
2.2
-1.5
1.8
-2.5
3.3
0.3
2.3
-3.5
1.0
-2.0
0.0
-4.6
1.8
-0.4
3.2
-3.5
3.5
-1.7
1.0
-2.2
3.4
-3.6
-0.6
-2.6
1.3
-0.7
-4.0
1.9
2.2
1.4
0.5
2.5
0.6
1.4
-1.2
3.1
2.3
1.9
-0.8
3.0
1.5
1.4
-4.6
2.5
-1.7
-1.7
-0.6
5.0
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.6
1.6
-1.3
-1.2
-0.7
1.7
1.9
1.8
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
8 | Investment | variation in %
9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro
de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
6
7
8
9
Private consumption, annual variation in %.
Private consumption, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 43
September 2023
Brazil
Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Industry and Unemployment
Individual Forecasts
4intelligence
Banco BMG
Banco BV
Banco Cooperativo Sicredi
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A.
Barclays Capital
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
DIW Berlin
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
HSBC
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Kínitro Capital
LCA Consultores
MB Associados
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Petros
Pezco Economics
Rabobank
S&P Global Ratings
Santander
Société Générale
Tendências Consultoria Integrada
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
IMF
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
10 | Industry | variation in %
Industry
variation in %
2023
2024
0.0
1.7
0.5
2.0
1.5
1.5
0.0
1.5
2.5
1.0
0.4
1.1
0.2
1.6
0.1
2.1
1.0
2.7
-0.4
1.5
-0.3
1.9
0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.9
0.3
2.0
0.8
1.1
-0.7
0.4
0.1
1.6
1.0
1.5
Unemployment
% of active pop.
2023
2024
7.9
8.1
8.3
8.8
8.3
9.1
8.6
8.9
8.0
8.7
8.2
8.8
8.4
8.5
8.3
9.0
8.5
8.3
8.1
8.5
8.7
8.9
8.8
8.7
8.4
8.8
8.5
8.5
8.4
8.3
8.7
9.2
8.1
7.9
8.0
8.0
9.6
9.8
8.1
8.5
7.9
8.4
8.0
8.1
8.4
8.7
8.1
8.7
8.2
7.7
8.0
8.5
9.4
9.3
8.2
9.3
8.4
8.6
8.1
8.3
8.8
-
-
-
9.5
9.4
-0.7
2.5
0.2
0.4
0.0
2.7
1.5
1.5
7.9
9.6
8.3
8.4
7.7
9.8
8.7
8.6
0.4
0.3
0.3
1.6
1.6
1.2
8.6
8.7
8.8
8.8
9.0
9.1
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts
12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro
de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
10 Industrial production, annual variation in %.
11 Industrial production, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 44
September 2023
Brazil
Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Fiscal Balance and Public Debt
Individual Forecasts
Banco BMG
Banco BV
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A.
Barclays Capital
BNP Paribas
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
DekaBank
EIU
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
LCA Consultores
MAPFRE Economics
MB Associados
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Petros
Pezco Economics
Rabobank
Santander
Société Générale
Tendências Consultoria Integrada
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
IMF
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
Fiscal Balance
% of GDP
2023
-7.1
-7.6
-6.9
-8.9
-8.5
-7.7
-8.2
-8.4
-7.6
-6.7
-7.2
-7.8
-7.6
-6.3
-9.3
-8.0
-7.3
-7.7
-8.4
-7.1
-8.1
-7.7
-8.4
-7.4
2024
-6.1
-6.3
-6.7
-8.2
-7.3
-6.7
-6.5
-6.4
-7.5
-5.9
-6.6
-7.2
-5.9
-6.5
-7.2
-7.7
-5.2
-7.7
-8.1
-6.8
-7.7
-6.9
-6.5
-8.5
Public Debt
% of GDP
2023
75.3
74.8
78.0
75.2
77.3
74.8
76.5
76.3
74.8
76.7
75.9
74.8
75.8
76.4
77.1
75.4
76.5
76.2
77.5
75.5
76.0
76.7
75.2
75.5
77.0
76.8
76.6
74.4
76.8
2024
78.2
77.3
81.7
77.6
79.8
77.9
79.5
80.2
79.2
80.2
79.0
77.0
79.7
79.8
77.7
78.3
80.5
79.2
79.1
86.9
82.0
80.6
78.5
77.8
81.1
79.4
80.1
80.7
-7.9
-7.4
77.1
79.3
-9.3
-6.3
-7.7
-7.8
-8.5
-5.2
-6.8
-6.9
74.4
78.0
76.3
76.1
77.0
86.9
79.4
79.6
-7.7
-7.8
-8.0
-7.0
-7.2
-7.3
76.6
76.7
76.7
80.1
80.1
80.2
15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
17 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
14
15
16
17
Fiscal balance as % of GDP.
Fiscal balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
Public debt as % of GDP.
Public debt as % of GDP evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 45
September 2023
Brazil
Monetary Sector | Inflation
Consumer Prices
Individual Forecasts
4intelligence
Actinver
Allianz
Banco BMG
Banco BV
Banco Cooperativo Sicredi
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A.
Barclays Capital
BNP Paribas
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
DekaBank
DIW Berlin
EIU
EmergingMarketWatch
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ifo Institut
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Julius Baer
KBC
Kiel Institute
Kínitro Capital
LCA Consultores
MAPFRE Economics
MB Associados
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pantheon Macroeconomics
Petros
Pezco Economics
Prometeia
Rabobank
S&P Global Ratings
Santander
Scotiabank
SEB
Standard Chartered
Tendências Consultoria Integrada
Torino Capital
UBS
Others (2)**
Public Forecasts
IMF
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
18 | Inflation | 2011 - 2027 | in %
Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop
2023
2024
5.0
3.8
4.9
4.1
5.1
3.7
5.2
4.0
4.9
3.8
5.0
3.5
5.1
3.7
4.8
3.8
4.0
4.5
5.2
4.0
4.7
4.0
4.7
3.9
4.5
3.7
5.3
3.5
4.8
3.9
5.2
4.4
5.1
3.9
4.9
4.3
4.8
3.6
4.7
3.7
4.7
3.7
5.1
4.0
5.4
4.0
5.0
4.0
5.3
3.5
4.9
3.9
5.1
4.0
5.5
5.0
5.1
3.9
5.6
3.9
4.9
3.9
4.9
3.8
5.1
4.0
4.4
4.9
3.3
-
Consumer Prices
variation in %, aop
2023
2024
5.1
3.9
5.6
4.8
4.8
4.1
4.7
4.0
4.7
3.9
4.7
4.1
4.7
4.0
4.7
4.5
4.8
4.2
4.9
3.8
5.3
5.3
4.5
3.7
4.5
4.2
4.5
3.7
5.0
4.6
4.8
4.5
4.6
4.0
4.6
4.0
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.2
4.7
4.2
4.7
3.8
4.4
4.0
5.0
4.4
4.7
3.6
4.7
4.4
5.1
4.3
4.8
3.9
4.7
4.2
4.7
4.1
4.7
4.4
4.9
5.0
4.7
4.3
5.0
4.2
4.8
4.0
4.6
3.7
4.6
4.7
3.7
5.0
4.1
5.4
3.9
5.1
4.6
4.0
5.6
5.0
5.0
3.3
5.0
3.9
3.9
4.4
5.6
4.7
4.8
3.6
5.3
4.2
4.2
5.1
5.3
5.6
3.9
4.0
4.0
5.0
5.0
5.2
4.3
4.3
4.4
19 | Inflation | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in %
20 | Inflation 2023 | evolution of fcst
21 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
| 46
September 2023
Brazil
Monetary Sector | Interest Rate
22 | Interest Rate | 2011 - 2027 | in %
24 | Int. Rate 2023 | evolution of fcst
23 | Interest Rate | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in %
25 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst
26 | Interest Rate 2023 | Panelist Distribution
Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Individual Forecasts
4intelligence
Actinver
Banco BMG
Banco BV
Banco Cooperativo Sicredi
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A.
Barclays Capital
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Credicorp Capital
Credit Agricole
EIU
Fitch Solutions
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
KBC
Kínitro Capital
LCA Consultores
MAPFRE Economics
MB Associados
Oxford Economics
Pantheon Macroeconomics
Petros
Pezco Economics
Rabobank
S&P Global Ratings
Santander
Scotiabank
Société Générale
Tendências Consultoria Integrada
Torino Capital
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2023
11.75
12.25
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.50
12.00
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.50
11.75
11.75
11.25
11.75
11.75
13.00
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
12.50
11.75
12.00
12.00
12.00
12.00
11.75
2024
9.75
9.25
9.50
9.00
9.00
9.00
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.00
9.50
9.25
9.50
9.25
9.00
8.50
9.50
8.00
9.25
9.25
8.50
5.75
8.50
10.25
9.25
9.00
10.00
9.25
10.00
8.00
11.25
13.00
11.75
11.83
5.75
10.25
9.25
9.08
12.11
12.22
12.39
9.26
9.41
9.63
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Brazil report due to space constraints. A full panelist
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco
Central do Brasil). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
18 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
19 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
20 Inflation, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
22 Interest rate, SELIC rate in % (eop).
23 Quarterly interest rate, SELIC rate in % (eop).
24 Interest rate, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
25 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
26 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 47
September 2023
Brazil
Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate
27 | Exchange Rate | BRL per USD
29 | BRL per USD 2023 | evol. of fcst
28 | Exchange Rate | BRL per USD
30 | BRL per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst
31 | BRL per USD 2023 | Panelist Distribution
Exchange Rate | BRL per USD
Individual Forecasts
4intelligence
Actinver
Banco BMG
Banco BV
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A.
Barclays Capital
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Credicorp Capital
Credit Agricole
Credit Suisse
EIU
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
HSBC
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Julius Baer
KBC
Kínitro Capital
LCA Consultores
MAPFRE Economics
MB Associados
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Petros
Pezco Economics
Rabobank
S&P Global Ratings
Santander
Scotiabank
Société Générale
Standard Chartered
Tendências Consultoria Integrada
Torino Capital
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2023
4.90
4.99
4.90
5.30
5.20
4.75
4.80
5.25
4.91
4.90
5.25
5.00
4.80
5.10
4.90
4.50
5.00
4.90
4.83
4.81
4.90
5.00
5.03
4.90
4.77
5.05
5.00
5.03
5.05
5.10
5.20
4.85
4.70
4.60
5.05
5.22
4.80
2024
5.00
5.11
5.10
5.30
5.30
5.10
5.00
5.00
4.95
5.05
5.15
5.00
4.86
5.20
5.00
5.25
5.04
5.00
4.96
5.10
5.00
4.84
5.24
5.10
5.25
5.15
5.20
5.35
4.72
4.90
5.20
5.00
4.50
5.30
4.91
4.95
4.72
5.35
5.07
5.08
4.99
5.05
5.18
5.11
5.16
5.22
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Macrobond Financial AB.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
27
28
29
30
31
Exchange rate, BRL per USD (eop).
Quarterly exchange rate, BRL per USD (eop).
Exchange rate, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 48
September 2023
Brazil
External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance
Current Account and Trade Balance
Individual Forecasts
4intelligence
Banco BMG
Banco BV
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A.
Barclays Capital
BNP Paribas
BTG Pactual
Citigroup Global Mkts
Credicorp Capital
Credit Agricole
Credit Suisse
DekaBank
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Kínitro Capital
LCA Consultores
MAPFRE Economics
MB Associados
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Rabobank
Société Générale
Standard Chartered
Tendências Consultoria Integrada
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
IMF
OECD
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
32 | Current Account | % of GDP
Current Account
% of GDP
2023
2024
-2.0
-1.6
-1.9
-2.0
-2.3
-2.5
-2.1
-1.9
-2.0
-2.1
-2.3
-2.0
-2.1
-2.4
-2.3
-2.5
-2.2
-2.3
-2.4
-2.5
-2.2
-2.2
-1.9
-2.3
-1.9
-2.3
-2.1
-2.9
-1.8
-2.2
-1.8
-2.2
-2.1
-1.8
-1.7
-1.5
-1.7
-1.5
-2.4
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-2.6
-2.9
-1.5
-3.5
-2.7
-2.5
-1.7
-3.2
-2.8
-2.4
-2.0
-2.2
-2.4
-2.4
-2.0
-2.4
-2.2
-2.4
-2.1
-1.8
-2.0
Trade Balance
USD bn
2023
79.0
80.9
70.0
57.0
87.2
70.0
71.4
70.7
81.2
67.0
73.5
79.6
2024
62.6
71.2
60.0
42.0
71.0
60.0
68.7
74.5
82.1
55.5
65.0
61.8
-2.3
-2.0
-2.5
-1.8
-
-
-2.8
-1.5
-2.1
-2.1
-3.5
-1.5
-2.3
-2.3
57.0
87.2
72.4
74.0
42.0
82.1
63.8
64.5
-2.1
-2.1
-2.2
-2.3
-2.4
-2.4
73.1
71.0
67.8
68.2
66.2
64.6
33 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
34 | Trade Balance | USD bn
35 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil) and the Ministry
of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC, Ministerio do Desenvolvimento, Industria e Comercio Exterior).
See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
32 Current account balance, as % of GDP. Source: BCB.
33 Current account balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: MDIC.
35 Trade balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 49
September 2023
Brazil
External Sector | Exports and Imports
Exports and Imports
Individual Forecasts
Banco BMG
Banco BV
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A.
Credicorp Capital
Euromonitor Int.
Itaú Unibanco
LCA Consultores
MB Associados
Pezco Economics
Rabobank
Tendências Consultoria Integrada
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
36 | Exports | variation in %
Exports
USD bn
2023
330
332
350
346
345
320
334
326
336
352
322
331
2024
337
338
325
337
373
328
322
355
356
346
320
330
Imports
USD bn
2023
251
251
280
289
258
250
262
255
255
285
248
251
2024
274
267
265
295
302
268
253
281
274
291
255
268
320
352
333
335
320
373
337
339
248
289
255
261
253
302
271
274
339
339
337
345
349
347
266
268
269
277
283
283
37 | Exports | evolution of fcst
38 | Imports | variation in %
39 | Imports | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC,
Ministerio do Desenvolvimento, Industria e Comercio Exterior). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
36 Exports, annual variation in %.
37 Exports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 Imports, annual variation in %.
39 Imports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 50
September 2023
Brazil
External Sector | Additional forecasts
International Reserves and External Debt
International Reserves
USD bn
Individual Forecasts
2023
2024
4intelligence
365
373
Banco BMG
345
345
Banco BV
330
330
Barclays Capital
345
363
BNP Paribas
341
338
BTG Pactual
345
345
Citigroup Global Mkts
343
343
Credit Suisse
325
325
Euromonitor Int.
356
378
Fitch Ratings
347
353
Fitch Solutions
348
361
Goldman Sachs
340
340
HSBC
LCA Consultores
333
341
MB Associados
342
366
Moody's Analytics
346
357
Pezco Economics
347
338
Rabobank
332
332
Tendências Consultoria Integrada
344
356
Torino Capital
351
UBS
331
331
Public Forecasts
IMF
346
346
Summary
Minimum
325
325
Maximum
365
378
Median
345
345
Consensus
343
348
History
30 days ago
342
345
60 days ago
339
344
90 days ago
338
342
External Debt
USD bn
2023
2024
296
327
329
367
330
337
320
330
328
-
-
296
330
328
321
327
367
333
340
321
321
329
340
340
341
40 | Int. Reserves | months of imports
41 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
42 | External Debt | % of GDP
43 | External Debt | USD bn
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
40 International reserves, months of imports.
41 International reserves, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
42 External debt as % of GDP.
43 External debt, USD billion.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 51
September 2023
Brazil
Fact Sheet
General Data
Brazil in the Region
Federative Republic
of Brazil
Brasilia (4.5m)
Sao Paulo (21.7m)
Rio de Janeiro (13.3m)
8,515,770
213
25.0
0.7
74.7
6.8
Portuguese
Metric system
GMT-2 to GMT-4
Official name:
Capital:
Other cities:
Area (km2):
Population (million, 2019 est.):
Population density (per km2, 2019):
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.):
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.):
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018 est.):
Language:
Measures:
Time:
Economic Infrastructure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants):
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.):
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants):
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants):
Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu):
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu):
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h):
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h):
Oil Supply (thousand bpd):
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd):
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons):
Transportation (2018)
Airports:
Railways (km):
Roadways (km):
Waterways (km):
Chief Ports:
Population | %-share in Latin America
GDP | %-share in Latin America
Economic Structure
18.3
99
70.4
14.9
GDP by Sector | share in %
GDP by Expenditure | share in %
11,221
12,565
578
516
3,363
3,029
464
4,093
29,850
2,000,000
50,000
Santos, Belem, Rio de Janeiro
Trade Structure
Primary markets | share in %
Political Data
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
2 October 2022
2026
Roberto Oliveira Campos Neto
President:
Last elections:
Next elections:
Central Bank President:
Exports
Imports
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
Rating
Ba2
BBBB
Agency
Moody's:
S&P Global Ratings:
Fitch Ratings:
Strengths
• Commitment to economic
orthodoxy
• Large domestic market and
diversified production
• Stable financial system
• Strong foreign direct investment
flows bolster capital account
Outlook
Stable
Positive
Stable
Primary products | share in %
Weaknesses
• Pronounced socio-economic
inequalities
• Inadequate infrastructure creates
bottleneck for economic growth
Exports
Imports
• Limited progress on privatization
and deregulation
.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 52
Chile
•
The economy contracted 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted quarteron-quarter basis in Q2, contrasting Q1’s expansion but half the fall
anticipated by monthly economic activity data. Government spending and
exports declined, which more than offset a rebound in fixed investment
and private consumption flatlining—the best performance in five quarters.
GDP should grow in quarter-on-quarter and annual terms in Q3, on
declining inflation and interest rate cuts by the Central Bank. Early signs
are positive: In July, month-on-month economic activity grew further, while
business sentiment rose to an 11-month high in August. Recent intense
rains should be boosting hydroelectric output and alleviating the water
shortage that has held back the mining sector. However, agricultural
output has been hit; the government estimates that the rains in late
August alone caused crop damages worth USD 1 billion.
•
GDP is seen shrinking marginally overall in 2023, though a recovery
should take hold in H2 and heading into 2024 as inflation and interest
rates fall. A further economic deterioration in China is a downside risk. The
outcome of December’s constitutional referendum and the government’s
proposed reforms to boost pensions, taxes and public spending are key
factors to watch. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 0.2%
in 2023, which is unchanged from one month ago, and expanding 1.9%
in 2024.
•
Inflation came in at 6.5% in July (June: 7.6%), the lowest rate since
October 2021 but still more than double the Central Bank’s 3.0% target.
Inflation should fall further later this year but will remain above the Bank’s
target amid monetary easing, recent peso weakening and an uptick in oil
prices. Inflation is only expected to fall close to target towards end-2024.
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 7.8% on average
in 2023, which is unchanged from one month ago, and rising 3.7% on
average in 2024.
•
The Central Bank cut interest rates by 75 basis points to 9.50% on 5
September and hinted at more cuts going forward due to its expectation
of a further decline in inflation ahead. The Consensus is for over 150
basis points of additional easing by end-2023, though there is a 175 basis
point spread among end-of-year policy rate forecasts. FocusEconomics
panelists see the monetary policy rate ending 2023 at 7.90% and ending
2024 at 4.66%.
•
The peso traded at CLP 878 per USD on 7 September, depreciating 2.9%
month on month. Aggressive rate cuts by the Central Bank were likely to
blame. Looking ahead, the peso should appreciate slightly from current
levels by year-end, supported by market intervention by the finance
ministry. Faster-than-expected monetary easing is a depreciatory risk.
FocusEconomics panelists see the peso ending 2023 at CLP 825 per
USD and ending 2024 at CLP 816 per USD.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
2019-21
19.4
283
14,559
2.1
-5.9
32.4
3.4
-4.8
76.1
2022-24
20.1
337
16,727
1.4
-1.1
39.0
7.7
-5.2
73.3
2025-27
20.7
412
19,918
2.5
-1.6
39.8
3.1
-3.5
-
Oliver Reynolds
Economist
Economic Growth
Change in GDP forecasts
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024
2020 - Q4 2024.
forecasts during the last 12 months.
Inflation
Chile
Outlook stable
Chile
Population (million):
GDP (USD bn):
GDP per capita (USD):
GDP growth (%):
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP):
Public Debt (% of GDP):
Inflation (%):
Current Account (% of GDP):
External Debt (% of GDP):
September 2023
Change in inflation forecasts
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2023 and 2024
average variation in %, Q4 2020 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2024.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 53
Chile
Gross Domestic Product | variation in %
September 2023
REAL SECTOR | GDP drops in the second quarter in both annual and
quarterly terms
GDP contracted 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis
in the second quarter, contrasting the downwardly revised 0.4% expansion
logged in the first quarter but half the fall that monthly economic activity data
had anticipated. On an annual basis, GDP declined 1.1% in Q2, compared to
the previous period’s 0.8% contraction.
Household spending was flat in seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms
in the second quarter, which marked the best reading since Q1 2022 (Q1:
-2.5% s.a. qoq). Government consumption dropped at the sharpest pace since
Q1 2023, contracting 2.1% (Q1: +4.4% s.a. qoq). Meanwhile, fixed investment
rebounded 1.4% in Q2, contrasting the 0.8% contraction logged in the previous
quarter and driven by higher machinery and equipment investment.
Note: Year-on-year and seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter changes of GDP
in %.
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCCh) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
On the external front, exports of goods and services contracted 1.3% in Q2,
marking the worst result since Q1 2022 (Q1: +0.5% s.a. qoq). Conversely,
imports of goods and services bounced back, growing 3.2% in Q2 (Q1: -4.4%
s.a. qoq).
Looking ahead, the economy should return to growth in Q3, abetted by easing
inflation and interest rates.
Commenting on the Q2 data, Goldman Sachs’ Sergio Armella said:
“We highlight that domestic demand firmed notably during the second quarter,
surprising to the upside. Although moderate, private consumption posted a
non-negative sequential growth print for the first time in five quarters. Gross
fixed capital formation also firmed. All in all, despite the drag from government
spending, final domestic demand (i.e., excluding the change in inventories)
also posted a non-negative sequential growth print for the first time in five
quarters.”
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 0.2% in 2023, which is
unchanged from one month ago, and expanding 1.9% in 2024.
Economic Activity | variation in %
REAL SECTOR | Economic activity expands at fastest pace since June
2022 in July
Economic activity rose 1.8% in year-on-year terms in July, which contrasted
June’s 0.8% decrease and was double the growth expected by the market.
July’s figure marked the best reading since June 2022, and was due to
improvements in the mining and non-mining sectors. That said, the reading
was likely flattered by transitory factors. Education output rose sharply in July
for instance, due to a reduced holiday period this year relative to July 2022.
Moreover, recent rains buoyed hydroelectric generation.
On a monthly basis, economic activity grew 0.3% in seasonally adjusted
terms in July, which was below June’s 0.4% expansion. Meanwhile, the trend
improved, with the annual average variation of economic activity coming in at
minus 0.9%, up from June’s minus 1.0% reading.
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month growth rate in %.
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCCh).
The economy is expected to expand in annual terms in H2 as a whole, after
contracting in H1, aided by the Central Bank initiating its easing cycle in July.
Goldman Sachs’ Sergio Armella said:
“The bulk of the adjustment is probably behind us and growth, albeit below
potential, is likely to resume in the second half of the year. We remain slightly
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 54
Chile
September 2023
more constructive on growth and expect the economy to expand 0.1% in
2023.”
Business Confidence
REAL SECTOR | Business confidence picks up but remains pessimistic
in August
Business confidence rose to 43.2 in August from July’s 41.1. August’s result
marked the best performance since September 2022. As such, the index
remained entrenched below the 50-point threshold, but indicated reduced
pessimism among businesses.
August’s reading was driven by improved sentiment in the industrial, retail
sector and mining sectors. Despite improved business confidence so far in
Q3 relative to Q2, the Consensus is still for a year-on-year contraction in fixed
investment in the third quarter, and over 2023 as a whole.
Note: Business Confidence Index (IMCE, Indicador Mensual de Confianza
Empresarial). Values above 50 indicate optimistic perception, below 50 indicate
negative perception.
Source: Universidad Adolfo Ibañez / ICARE.
Inflation | Consumer Price Index
FocusEconomics panelists see fixed investment contracting 2.2% in 2023,
which is up by 0.7 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding
1.8% in 2024.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation falls to over one-year low in July
Inflation fell to 6.5% in July below June’s 7.6%. July’s figure marked the
weakest inflation rate since October 2021, but was still more than double the
Central Bank’s 3% target. Looking at the details of the release, prices for food
and non-alcoholic beverages and housing, utilities and fuel rose at a softer
pace in July, while transport prices fell.
Annual average inflation fell to 11.1% in July (June: 11.7%). Meanwhile, core
inflation fell to 6.2% in July, from the previous month’s 6.9%.
Finally, consumer prices rose 0.35% over the previous month in July,
contrasting June’s 0.15% drop. July’s figure marked the highest reading since
March.
Note: Year-on-year and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Chile National Statistical Institute (INE).
Monetary Policy Rate | in %
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 7.8% on average in
2023, which is unchanged from one month ago, and rising 3.7% on average
in 2024.
MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank slashes rates again in September
At its 5 September meeting, the board of the Central Bank of Chile (BCCh)
decided to cut the monetary policy rate to 9.50% from 10.25%, in line with
market expectations and following a 100 basis-point cut at the prior meeting.
The decision was driven by sharp falls in headline and core inflation in recent
months. Moreover, two-year market inflation expectations sit at the Central
Bank’s 3.0% target.
Note: Monetary Policy Rate (TPM, Tasa de Política Monetaria) in %.
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCCh).
The Bank suggested it would continue to cut the policy rate going forward,
given that inflation is seen continuing to trend down ahead and converge
with the target in H2 2024. The Consensus is for around 175 basis points
of additional easing by end-2023. However, there is a large 200 basis point
spread among end-of-year policy rate forecasts, and recent peso weakness—
the currency has depreciated around 7% since end-June—could stoke price
pressures and encourage the BCCh to slow the pace of monetary easing.
On the outlook, Itau Unibanco analysts said:
“Monetary policy continues to be very contractive considering that at 6% it is
still well above the central bank’s real neutral range estimate of 0.5%-1.0%.
The communiqué reaffirms the expectation of a yearend rate outlined in the
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 55
Chile
September 2023
previous decision (7.75-8.0%), implying rate cuts of a similar magnitude in
October and December.”
On the currency, EIU analysts said:
“The government’s currency intervention will help to reduce (but not eliminate)
the risk of currency overshooting as the BCCh continues its aggressive cuts.
There is a risk that the peso will depreciate more than we expect, which could
raise inflationary pressures and may cause the BCCh to take a more cautious
approach to monetary easing.”
FocusEconomics panelists see the monetary policy rate ending 2023 at 7.90%
and ending 2024 at 4.66%.
Copper Price | USD per metric ton
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Copper prices fall in August; copper output rises
in July
Copper prices averaged USD 8,348 in August, down from the prior month’s
USD 8,477. Prices were likely dampened in recent weeks by disappointing
economic data from China and the lack of major Chinese stimulus measures.
The latest data shows that Chilean copper output rose 0.9% in annual terms
in July, marking the first rise since January.
Copper prices are seen averaging close to their current levels through the
end of this year. Copper demand from developed markets will likely flag due
to high interest rates, and economic momentum in China should stay sluggish
due to weak sentiment and a housing market downturn. That said, major
Chinese stimulus measures are an upside risk to prices.
Note: Cash seller and settlement price.
Source: London Metal Exchange (LME).
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
On the supply side, Chilean copper output will likely fall in 2023 as a whole
relative to 2022 amid declining ore grades and water shortages in H1. That
said, heavy rains since June could ease water shortages in H2 and thus
support output. The combination of lower average copper prices this year
compared to last, soft domestic copper output, muted economic activity and
high social spending demands will lead to a renewed fiscal deficit and a
consequent rise in the public-debt-to-GDP ratio this year.
| 56
September 2023
Chile
Economic Indicators | 2018 - 2027
Annual Data
2018
2019
Real Sector
Population (million)
18.8
19.1
GDP per capita (USD)
15,737
14,565
GDP (USD bn)
295
278
GDP (CLP bn)
189,435 195,752
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %)
5.6
3.3
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)
4.0
0.7
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %)
5.0
0.9
Total Consumption (ann. var. %)
3.6
0.7
Private Consumption (ann. var. %)
3.8
0.7
Government Consumption (ann. var. %)
3.1
0.6
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %)
6.5
4.5
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %)
4.9
-2.5
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %)
8.6
-1.7
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %)
2.8
0.8
Retail Sales (ann. var. %)
3.8
-1.3
Unemployment (% of active population, aop)
7.3
7.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
-1.7
-2.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)
25.7
28.6
Monetary and Financial Sector
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop)
2.6
3.0
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)
2.4
2.6
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop)
2.75
1.75
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop)
4.21
3.14
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop)
694
752
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, aop)
642
703
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
-4.5
-5.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
-13.3
-14.5
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn)
4.4
3.0
Merchandise Exports (USD bn)
74.8
68.8
Merchandise Imports (USD bn)
70.4
65.8
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %)
8.6
-8.1
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %)
14.7
-6.6
Copper LME (USD/mt, aop)
6,527
6,008
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn)
13.0
14.4
International Reserves (USD bn)
39.9
40.7
International Reserves (months of imports)
6.8
7.4
External Debt (USD bn)
184
198
External Debt (% of GDP)
62.4
71.3
Quarterly Data
Q3 22
Q4 22
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)
0.2
-2.3
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %)
-1.2
0.0
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %)
-1.8
-7.6
Private Consumption (ann. var. %)
-2.4
-4.7
Government Consumption (ann. var. %)
2.8
-2.1
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %)
0.5
-1.7
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %)
-4.3
-7.1
Retail Sales (ann. var. %)
-13.0
-12.8
Unemployment (% of active population, aop)
8.0
7.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop)
13.7
12.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)
13.6
13.0
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop)
10.75
11.25
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop)
6.87
5.32
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop)
958
852
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
-10.9
-6.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
-7.5
-5.0
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn)
-1.0
3.7
Merchandise Exports (USD bn)
23.9
25.4
Merchandise Imports (USD bn)
24.9
21.7
Monthly Data
Nov-22 Dec-22
Economic Activity (IMACEC, ann. var. %)
-3.3
-2.0
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %)
-7.8
-4.4
Unemployment (% of active population)
7.9
7.9
Consumer Confidence (OECD)
94.8
94.7
Business Confidence Index (50-pt threshold)
41.0
35.6
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %)
0.97
0.29
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %)
13.3
12.8
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop)
896
852
Copper LME (USD/mt, aop)
8,050
8,371
Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
19.5
13,081
255
201,429
2.9
-6.1
-9.4
-6.6
-7.4
-3.5
-10.8
-0.9
-12.3
-2.3
-3.5
10.6
-7.3
32.3
19.7
16,031
316
240,371
19.3
11.7
21.7
19.3
20.8
13.8
15.7
-1.4
31.8
5.3
28.4
9.1
-7.7
36.4
19.9
15,091
301
262,593
9.2
2.4
2.3
3.1
2.9
4.1
2.8
1.4
0.9
-2.5
-4.2
7.8
1.1
37.6
20.1
17,201
346
281,147
7.1
-0.2
-3.6
-3.1
-4.2
3.3
-2.2
1.4
-8.7
-2.2
-4.9
8.5
-2.2
38.9
20.3
17,890
363
296,671
5.5
1.9
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.3
1.8
2.9
3.9
0.0
5.3
8.2
-2.1
40.4
20.5
18,833
386
314,630
6.1
2.4
3.0
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.5
1.9
2.3
7.8
-1.9
41.0
20.7
19,925
412
339,363
7.9
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.9
2.6
2.8
7.6
-1.6
39.8
20.9
20,994
438
362,736
6.9
2.6
2.4
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.4
7.4
-1.3
38.6
3.0
3.0
0.50
2.65
711
791
7.2
4.5
4.00
5.65
852
760
12.8
11.6
11.25
5.32
852
873
4.4
7.8
7.90
5.20
825
813
3.2
3.7
4.66
5.21
816
817
3.1
3.2
4.22
4.94
816
816
3.0
3.0
4.07
832
824
2.9
3.0
3.80
824
828
-1.9
-5.0
18.9
74.0
55.1
7.6
-16.2
6,183
10.8
39.2
8.5
208
81.9
Q1 23
-0.8
0.4
-8.0
-7.0
2.7
-2.3
-3.6
-9.2
8.4
11.1
11.8
11.25
5.32
791
1.9
1.7
7.5
27.0
19.5
Jan-23
0.2
-1.3
8.0
94.9
40.7
0.80
12.3
799
9,007
-7.3
-23.2
10.5
94.8
84.3
28.0
53.0
9,318
13.2
51.3
7.3
238
75.2
Q2 23
-1.1
-0.3
-5.6
-6.1
1.5
1.6
-4.5
-11.5
8.6
7.6
8.7
11.25
5.29
802
-3.2
-2.8
3.6
23.4
19.8
Feb-23
-0.5
-3.6
8.4
95.2
42.1
-0.06
11.9
832
8,937
-9.0
-27.1
3.8
98.5
94.7
4.0
12.4
8,823
19.8
39.2
5.0
233
77.6
Q3 23
0.1
0.2
-2.1
-2.9
3.5
-3.5
-1.5
8.7
5.1
5.9
9.50
5.52
821
-3.4
-2.9
1.3
23.6
22.3
Mar-23
-2.1
-5.6
8.8
95.5
40.5
1.08
11.1
791
8,856
-3.2
-11.2
15.3
99.4
84.1
0.9
-11.2
8,562
43.1
6.2
247
71.3
Q4 23
0.5
0.4
-0.4
-1.7
3.2
-2.0
1.8
8.4
4.2
4.5
8.00
5.45
831
-3.4
-2.9
2.9
25.1
22.2
Apr-23
-0.9
-6.6
8.7
95.6
41.4
0.31
9.9
802
8,809
-3.4
-12.4
14.5
102.3
87.8
2.9
4.4
8,632
44.8
6.1
257
70.9
Q1 24
0.9
0.9
2.4
1.3
5.5
0.5
5.0
8.3
3.4
3.7
7.00
5.30
815
-2.3
-2.0
4.5
25.2
20.7
May-23
-1.6
-1.4
8.5
95.8
41.4
0.11
8.7
814
8,243
-3.5
-13.4
11.6
103.3
91.7
0.9
4.4
9,066
45.6
6.0
250
64.8
Q2 24
2.0
0.6
2.1
2.5
3.2
2.3
8.0
8.3
3.7
3.4
5.96
5.24
814
-3.1
-2.8
4.3
25.1
20.8
Jun-23
-0.8
-5.4
8.5
96.1
39.5
-0.15
7.6
802
8,397
-3.6
-14.9
11.0
106.8
95.8
3.4
4.5
8,888
47.7
6.0
Q3 24
2.2
0.5
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
4.2
8.2
3.5
3.4
5.29
5.26
812
-4.2
-3.8
2.1
24.9
22.8
Jul-23
1.8
-3.9
8.8
96.2
41.1
0.35
6.5
840
8,477
-3.6
-15.6
11.0
109.6
98.6
2.6
2.9
8,888
50.9
6.2
Q4 24
2.6
0.6
3.4
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.5
7.9
3.2
3.1
4.75
5.27
824
-3.8
-3.4
4.5
26.7
22.2
Aug-23
96.2
43.2
857
8,348
| 57
September 2023
Chile
Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product
1 | Real GDP | 2011-2027 | var. in %
3 | GDP 2023 | evolution of forecasts
2 | Real GDP | Q4 20-Q4 24 | var. in %
4 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts
5 | GDP 2023 | Panelist Distribution
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco
Central de Chile) and the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1
2
3
4
5
Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts
ABIF
Actinver
AGPV
Allianz
Banchile Inversiones
Barclays Capital
BCI
BICE Inversiones
BNP Paribas
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Corficolombiana
Credicorp Capital
DekaBank
EIU
EmergingMarketWatch
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Fynsa
Gemines
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Inversiones Security
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Julius Baer
Kiel Institute
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pantheon Macroeconomics
Pezco Economics
Rabobank
S&P Global Ratings
Santander
Scope Ratings
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
STF Capital
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
CEPAL
OECD
World Bank
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2023
-0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.5
-0.8
-1.0
-0.3
0.3
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.6
-0.5
-0.3
0.1
-0.3
0.0
-0.5
0.1
-0.5
-0.2
0.2
-0.4
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.3
-0.8
-1.0
-0.8
0.1
-0.5
-0.3
-0.7
2024
1.8
2.1
1.8
1.6
1.8
1.5
1.7
2.5
1.0
1.5
2.3
2.6
2.0
2.3
2.0
2.3
2.0
2.0
2.4
2.1
2.2
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.8
2.3
1.6
1.7
2.1
1.4
1.5
2.6
1.6
2.4
2.0
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.8
-0.3
-0.3
-0.1
-0.4
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.8
-1.0
0.3
-0.2
-0.2
1.0
2.6
1.8
1.9
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
1.9
2.0
2.1
GDP, real annual variation in %.
Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
GDP, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
GDP, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 58
September 2023
Chile
Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Consumption and Investment
Individual Forecasts
ABIF
Banchile Inversiones
BCI
BICE Inversiones
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Fynsa
Gemines
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Inversiones Security
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Rabobank
S&P Global Ratings
Santander
STF Capital
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
OECD
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
6 | Consumption | variation in %
Consumption
variation in %
2024
2023
1.8
-4.8
-4.2
0.2
-3.4
1.8
-4.7
1.4
-4.8
1.3
-2.6
3.2
-3.7
1.9
-2.9
2.1
-4.5
3.0
4.5
-4.6
-4.5
1.9
3.2
-4.7
2.6
-3.9
-3.2
1.4
-5.1
2.0
-4.5
2.4
-5.2
5.3
-1.1
2.3
1.5
-4.1
-4.0
2.0
1.0
-5.2
-5.1
1.3
-3.3
-3.9
2.3
Investment
variation in %
2024
2023
-0.6
-3.2
-3.2
-0.3
-2.8
-1.5
-3.8
4.7
-1.0
0.6
-0.6
2.4
-2.4
3.3
-2.5
1.0
-0.8
2.5
-1.8
2.1
-0.1
-1.5
0.0
2.9
-0.5
3.5
-5.5
2.0
-0.3
5.8
-2.0
3.3
2.9
-3.3
0.4
-1.3
-4.1
0.5
-0.3
-3.0
3.0
-4.8
-5.2
1.3
1.7
-3.0
-2.7
-1.0
1.2
-5.2
-1.1
-4.5
-4.2
0.2
5.3
1.9
2.1
-5.5
0.0
-2.4
-2.2
-1.5
5.8
2.0
1.8
-3.9
-3.9
-3.4
2.1
2.1
2.0
-2.9
-2.8
-2.7
1.7
1.6
1.5
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
8 | Investment | variation in %
9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
6
7
8
9
Private consumption, annual variation in %.
Private consumption, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 59
September 2023
Chile
Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Manufacturing and Unemployment
Individual Forecasts
ABIF
BCI
BICE Inversiones
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Credicorp Capital
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Fynsa
Gemines
HSBC
Inversiones Security
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Rabobank
S&P Global Ratings
Scotiabank
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
OECD
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
10 | Manufacturing | variation in %
Manufacturing
variation in %
2023
2024
-3.4
-3.4
-3.6
0.2
-0.1
2.3
-1.9
0.7
-
Unemployment
% of active pop.
2023
2024
8.6
8.2
8.8
8.2
8.1
7.4
8.3
8.5
8.0
7.5
8.2
7.6
8.6
8.6
8.7
8.5
8.5
7.6
8.2
7.5
8.3
8.7
8.5
8.9
8.8
9.0
9.5
8.7
8.7
8.7
8.6
8.7
8.3
8.5
8.0
8.8
8.3
8.8
8.2
-
-
8.2
8.5
8.0
7.8
-3.6
-0.1
-2.6
-2.2
-3.4
2.3
0.5
0.0
8.0
9.0
8.6
8.5
7.4
9.5
8.2
8.2
-1.5
-1.4
-2.0
0.6
0.6
-
8.5
8.6
8.6
8.2
8.2
8.2
11 | Manufacturing | evol. of forecasts
12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). See
below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
10 Manufacturing output, annual variation in %.
11 Manufacturing output, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 60
September 2023
Chile
Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Fiscal Balance and Public Debt
Individual Forecasts
ABIF
AGPV
Banchile Inversiones
Barclays Capital
BCI
BNP Paribas
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Credicorp Capital
DekaBank
EIU
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
Fynsa
Gemines
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Inversiones Security
JPMorgan
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Rabobank
Santander
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
OECD
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
Fiscal Balance
% of GDP
2023
-1.9
-2.0
-2.4
-2.2
-3.7
-1.8
-2.1
-4.0
-1.5
-2.2
-1.9
-1.9
-2.7
-2.3
-1.8
-2.3
-2.2
-1.9
-3.0
-1.9
-0.9
-1.0
-2.1
-3.0
-2.5
-2.1
2024
-2.0
-2.0
-2.1
-2.2
-2.6
-2.1
-2.1
-3.5
-1.5
-2.2
-1.8
-1.8
-2.2
-2.0
-2.0
-2.2
-2.2
-1.5
-2.5
-2.2
-3.6
-1.1
-1.8
-2.0
-3.0
-1.9
Public Debt
% of GDP
2023
38.1
39.5
39.1
39.6
38.9
38.5
38.2
37.6
39.7
40.5
41.0
40.2
38.6
40.0
37.9
35.6
39.5
37.0
39.5
38.4
2024
40.9
41.2
40.2
41.1
42.3
39.5
40.6
40.0
41.0
39.4
42.5
41.7
41.4
40.0
39.3
35.9
40.8
38.7
41.0
41.0
-1.9
-2.0
-1.9
-2.1
-
-
-4.0
-0.9
-2.1
-2.2
-3.6
-1.1
-2.1
-2.1
35.6
41.0
39.0
38.9
35.9
42.5
40.8
40.4
-2.2
-2.1
-2.2
-2.2
-2.1
-1.9
38.8
38.6
38.8
40.4
40.2
40.3
15 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts
16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
17 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the DIPRES (Dirección de Presupuestos). See below for details. Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
14 Fiscal balance as % of GDP.
15 Fiscal balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Public debt as % of GDP.
17 Public debt, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 61
September 2023
Chile
Monetary Sector | Inflation
Consumer Prices
Individual Forecasts
ABIF
Actinver
AGPV
Allianz
Banchile Inversiones
Barclays Capital
BCI
BICE Inversiones
BNP Paribas
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Corficolombiana
Credicorp Capital
DekaBank
EIU
EmergingMarketWatch
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Fynsa
Gemines
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Inversiones Security
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Julius Baer
Kiel Institute
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pantheon Macroeconomics
Pezco Economics
Rabobank
S&P Global Ratings
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
STF Capital
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
OECD
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
18 | Inflation | 2011 - 2027 | in %
Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop
2024
2023
4.3
3.0
3.2
4.5
3.0
4.2
3.5
4.2
3.8
2.8
3.1
4.1
4.4
3.0
4.2
3.7
4.4
3.5
4.8
3.0
4.2
3.0
4.0
3.0
5.0
3.0
4.2
3.0
4.1
3.2
3.3
3.7
5.1
3.5
4.3
3.4
3.0
4.0
3.0
3.9
4.0
3.6
3.7
4.0
2.9
4.5
4.1
2.5
7.8
5.9
4.1
3.0
4.8
3.2
3.0
4.5
3.7
3.0
3.9
3.1
4.2
3.9
3.2
Consumer Prices
variation in %, aop
2023
2024
3.5
7.6
7.6
3.8
7.5
4.1
8.3
4.8
8.3
4.1
7.7
3.4
7.5
3.8
7.7
3.8
8.2
7.6
3.3
7.5
3.4
7.5
3.4
7.8
3.6
4.0
8.8
7.7
3.3
7.7
3.3
7.7
3.5
3.2
7.6
7.8
4.4
8.1
3.7
3.3
7.6
7.6
3.5
6.8
2.9
3.5
7.5
3.1
7.6
7.7
3.1
7.5
3.2
10.3
6.8
7.7
3.2
7.9
3.7
3.7
7.7
7.4
3.0
7.7
3.5
7.4
3.0
7.6
7.5
3.2
5.1
-
3.3
-
7.7
8.1
4.3
4.1
3.7
7.8
4.2
4.4
2.5
5.9
3.1
3.2
6.8
10.3
7.7
7.8
2.9
6.8
3.5
3.7
4.4
4.8
5.0
3.2
3.2
3.2
7.8
7.9
8.0
3.6
3.7
3.9
19 | Inflation | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in %
20 | Inflation 2023 | evolution of fcst
21 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
| 62
September 2023
Chile
Monetary Sector | Interest Rate
22 | Interest Rate | 2011 - 2027 | in %
24 | Int. Rate 2023 | evolution of fcst
23 | Interest Rate | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in %
25 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst
26 | Interest Rate 2023 | Panelist Distribution
Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Individual Forecasts
ABIF
Actinver
AGPV
Banchile Inversiones
Barclays Capital
BCI
BICE Inversiones
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Corficolombiana
Credicorp Capital
EIU
Fitch Solutions
Fynsa
Gemines
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Inversiones Security
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Oxford Economics
Pantheon Macroeconomics
Rabobank
S&P Global Ratings
Santander
Scotiabank
STF Capital
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2023
8.25
8.25
8.50
7.75
7.75
8.50
7.50
7.75
7.50
8.25
8.00
8.00
7.50
8.00
7.50
7.50
8.00
7.75
7.50
7.25
7.75
7.75
8.00
8.00
9.00
7.75
7.50
7.50
8.50
7.25
2024
4.00
4.75
5.00
4.50
5.50
4.50
4.50
4.25
4.75
5.50
4.50
5.00
4.50
4.50
3.75
4.50
5.25
3.75
4.50
4.50
4.25
4.00
5.75
5.50
4.50
4.00
4.50
4.50
9.00
6.25
7.25
9.00
7.75
7.90
3.75
6.25
4.50
4.66
8.08
8.48
8.52
4.70
4.85
4.92
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco
Central de Chile) and the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas).
Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
18 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop). Source: INE.
19 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
20 Inflation, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
22 Interest rate, Central Bank monetary policy rate in % (eop). Source: BCCh.
23 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank monetary policy rate in % (eop).
24 Interest rate, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
25 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
26 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 63
September 2023
Chile
Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate
27 | Exchange Rate | CLP per USD
29 | CLP per USD 2023 | evol. of fcst
28 | Exchange Rate | CLP per USD
30 | CLP per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst
31 | CLP per USD 2023 | Panelist Distribution
Exchange Rate | CLP per USD
Individual Forecasts
ABIF
Actinver
AGPV
Banchile Inversiones
Barclays Capital
BCI
BICE Inversiones
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Credicorp Capital
EIU
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
Fynsa
Gemines
HSBC
Inversiones Security
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Rabobank
S&P Global Ratings
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
STF Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2023
845
810
800
830
840
820
834
830
825
782
830
854
810
825
795
812
800
825
830
860
815
824
812
817
825
850
850
840
850
835
2024
840
815
800
810
880
790
810
810
775
770
780
838
800
775
770
775
825
850
798
859
819
824
850
860
870
840
800
820
815
800
782
860
825
825
770
880
810
816
819
815
821
807
806
807
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Macrobond Financial AB.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
27 Exchange rate, CLP per USD (eop).
28 Quarterly exchange rate, CLP per USD (eop).
29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2023 forecast during the last 12 months.
30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecast during the last 12 months.
31 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 64
September 2023
Chile
External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance
Current Account and Trade Balance
Individual Forecasts
ABIF
Banchile Inversiones
Barclays Capital
BICE Inversiones
BNP Paribas
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Credicorp Capital
DekaBank
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
Gemines
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Inversiones Security
JPMorgan
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Rabobank
Santander
Standard Chartered
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
OECD
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
32 | Current Account | % of GDP
Current Account
% of GDP
2023
2024
-4.0
-3.7
-3.8
-4.3
-3.2
-2.8
-4.3
-7.6
-4.0
-4.1
-3.8
-3.1
1.0
-0.8
-2.0
-2.5
-3.4
-3.5
-3.4
-3.6
-3.6
-3.4
-2.7
-5.3
-3.3
-3.5
-3.6
-4.3
-4.7
-5.1
-4.7
-4.2
-3.5
-4.6
-2.5
-3.0
-3.9
-3.2
0.8
-1.1
-0.8
-2.6
-3.9
-3.2
-1.5
-3.0
-3.0
-3.5
-3.6
-3.7
-1.7
-3.5
-3.2
Trade Balance
USD bn
2023
13.6
17.2
14.3
16.1
18.2
12.9
16.9
16.8
9.1
9.7
18.3
18.8
6.3
18.6
13.3
19.4
18.4
2024
15.3
15.6
8.5
16.6
17.5
12.0
11.6
17.2
8.0
11.9
18.0
8.9
8.8
15.2
12.7
20.2
-3.8
-3.9
-3.8
-4.4
13.3
-
10.9
-
-7.6
1.0
-3.6
-3.2
-5.3
-0.8
-3.4
-3.4
6.3
19.4
16.4
15.3
8.5
20.2
12.7
14.5
-3.3
-3.4
-3.5
-3.4
-3.4
-3.5
16.4
15.2
14.8
14.9
13.5
12.8
33 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
34 | Trade Balance | USD bn
35 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
32 Current account balance, as % of GDP.
33 Current account balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD.
35 Trade balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 65
September 2023
Chile
External Sector | Exports and Imports
Exports and Imports
Individual Forecasts
ABIF
Barclays Capital
BTG Pactual
Citigroup Global Mkts
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
Gemines
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Inversiones Security
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Rabobank
Santander
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
36 | Exports | variation in %
Exports
USD bn
2023
99.5
96.0
96.6
103.5
102.1
102.7
99.5
102.6
96.4
99.0
97.1
96.2
96.4
101.5
100.6
96.7
102.9
102.4
2024
103.4
100.8
94.1
106.6
104.1
116.1
100.8
108.2
103.1
102.0
104.9
101.0
84.7
104.5
101.9
96.6
108.1
Imports
USD bn
2023
85.9
78.8
82.2
87.4
83.9
86.6
85.7
79.6
88.1
87.3
77.9
77.6
95.2
82.0
83.4
83.5
84.0
2024
88.1
85.2
85.5
90.0
86.6
88.8
96.6
85.9
90.8
93.0
83.0
75.7
95.6
86.7
83.9
87.8
97.8
100.6
84.5
89.7
96.0
103.5
99.5
99.4
84.7
116.1
102.5
102.3
77.6
95.2
84.0
84.1
75.7
96.6
87.8
87.8
100.9
100.8
101.2
103.3
102.9
102.1
84.5
85.6
86.4
88.4
89.5
89.3
37 | Exports | evolution of fcst
38 | Imports | variation in %
39 | Imports | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
36 Exports, annual variation in %.
37 Exports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 Imports, annual variation in %.
39 Imports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 66
September 2023
Chile
External Sector | International Reserves and External Debt
International Reserves and External Debt
Individual Forecasts
AGPV
Barclays Capital
BNP Paribas
Citigroup Global Mkts
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
Gemines
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Inversiones Security
JPMorgan
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Rabobank
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
40 | Int. Reserves | months of imports
International Reserves
USD bn
2024
2023
42.0
44.0
45.2
47.2
44.7
44.1
39.3
39.3
44.3
48.9
42.6
42.2
45.6
49.3
51.4
47.1
43.0
46.0
40.5
42.1
44.5
49.0
49.0
40.1
41.3
39.4
39.2
39.9
42.9
External Debt
USD bn
2023
2024
273
259
233
238
244
250
271
290
233
243
250
242
243
-
39.3
49.0
43.0
43.1
39.2
51.4
44.1
44.8
233
271
243
247
238
290
250
257
42.8
42.4
41.4
44.2
44.1
42.7
247
248
244
259
259
257
41 | Int. Reserves | evol. of forecasts
42 | External Debt | % of GDP
43 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
40 International reserves, months of imports.
41 International reserves, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
42 External debt as % of GDP.
43 External debt, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 67
September 2023
Chile
Fact Sheet
General Data
Chile in the Region
Republic of Chile
Santiago (6.7 m)
Valparaíso (0.9 m)
Concepción (0.9 m)
756,102
19.7
26.1
0.7
79.4
3.6
Spanish
Metric system
GMT-3
Official name:
Capital:
Other cities:
Area (km2):
Population (million, 2019 est.):
Population density (per km2, 2019):
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.):
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.):
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018):
Language:
Measures:
Time:
Economic Infrastructure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants):
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.):
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants):
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants):
Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu):
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu):
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h):
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h):
Oil Supply (thousand bpd):
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd):
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons):
Transportation (2018)
Airports:
Railways (km):
Roadways (km):
Chief Ports:
Population | %-share in Latin America
GDP | %-share in Latin America
Economic Structure
16.0
134
82.3
17.4
GDP by Sector | share in %
GDP by Expenditure | share in %
419
1,503
76.2
72.0
11.3
357
83.4
481
7,282
77,801
Valparaíso, San Antonio
Trade Structure
Primary markets | share in %
Political Data
President:
Last elections:
Next elections:
Central Bank President:
Gabriel Boric
21 November 2021
2025
Rosanna Costa
Exports
Imports
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
Rating
A2
A
A-
Agency
Moody's:
S&P Global Ratings:
Fitch Ratings:
Strengths
• Market-oriented policy
• Structurally sound and prudent
fiscal policy
• Free trade agreements with
major economic areas
Outlook
Stable
Stable
Stable
Primary products | share in %
Weaknesses
• High dependence on copper
exports
• Relatively small domestic
market
• Political uncertainty surrounding
new constitution
Exports
Imports
.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 68
Colombia
September 2023
Colombia
Outlook stable
Colombia
•
The economy weakened more than expected in Q2, nearly stagnating
year on year and contracting quarter on quarter. The deceleration in yearon-year GDP growth was caused by slowing exports and private spending
plus a sharper fall in fixed investment. Activity was likely knocked by the
highest interest rates since the 1990s; banks issued less monthly credit
to consumers in April and May than in Q1 on average. Heading into Q3,
the economy is expected to gather steam but remain weak. Inflation and
interest rates remain high, contributing to a sharper fall in manufacturing
activity in July–August than in Q2. In other news, the President said he
would seek to renegotiate a trade agreement with the U.S., which he
stated was hurting agricultural output and employment. Shortly afterward,
the CEA—a trade group representing U.S. firms—said the remarks could
deter U.S. investment in Colombia.
•
GDP growth will fall far below its 10-year pre-pandemic average of 3.7%
this year. This will be due to double-digit inflation and a rising policy rate.
Growth will be further hurt by weaker exports. Key factors to watch include
the President’s policies and El Niño, which could stoke inflation and hurt
agricultural GDP. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.4%
in 2023, which is unchanged from one month ago, and expanding 1.8%
in 2024.
•
Inflation eased to 11.4% in August from 11.8% in July. It should continue to
cool ahead as domestic demand weakens and the base effect toughens.
That said, inflation is seen remaining above the Central Bank’s 2.0–4.0%
target even at the end of 2024. Key factors to watch include commodity
prices, fiscal stimulus and the strength of the peso. FocusEconomics
panelists see consumer prices rising 11.5% on average in 2023, which
is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 5.8% on
average in 2024.
•
On 31 July, the Central Bank held its benchmark interest rate at 13.25%—
the highest level since 1999—for the second consecutive month. The
Bank’s next meeting is set for 29 September. The Consensus is for the
Bank to reduce the benchmark rate by roughly 125 basis points from its
current level by end-2023. Unexpectedly sticky core inflation is an upside
risk. FocusEconomics panelists see the policy interest rate ending 2023
at 11.97% and ending 2024 at 7.26%.
•
The peso traded at COP 4,093 per USD on 7 September, depreciating
0.4% month on month. The COP is seen losing further ground by the
end of 2023, as the Central Bank lowers its policy rate, before stabilizing
in 2024. Oil prices and the President’s policy agenda are key factors to
watch. FocusEconomics panelists see the peso ending 2023 at COP
4,207 per USD and ending 2024 at COP 4,201 per USD.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
Population (million):
GDP (USD bn):
GDP per capita (USD):
GDP growth (%):
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP):
Public Debt (% of GDP):
Inflation (%):
Current Account (% of GDP):
External Debt (% of GDP)
2019-21
50.3
304
6,048
2.3
-5.7
59.5
3.2
-4.5
51.3
2022-24
52.2
368
7,052
3.5
-4.6
59.6
9.1
-4.6
52.8
2025-27
53.7
462
8,595
3.0
-3.4
56.0
3.5
-3.5
47.8
Matthew Cunningham
Economist
Economic Growth
Change in GDP forecasts
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024
2020 - Q4 2024.
forecasts during the last 12 months.
Inflation
Change in inflation forecasts
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2023 and 2024
average variation in %, Q4 2020 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2024.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 69
Colombia
Gross Domestic Product | variation in %
Note: Year-on-year changes and quarter-on-quarter of GDP in %.
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE) and LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
September 2023
REAL SECTOR | Economy weakens more than expected in Q2
GDP growth waned to 0.3% year on year in the second quarter, from 3.0%
in the first quarter. Q2’s reading marked the worst result since Q4 2020. On
a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity contracted
1.0% in Q2, contrasting the previous quarter’s 2.2% expansion and
undershooting market expectations.
The downturn was driven by weakening private consumption, fixed investment
and net exports. Household spending growth fell to 0.7% in Q2, marking the
weakest expansion since Q3 2020 (Q1: +3.1% yoy), likely due to high inflation
and interest rates. Fixed investment contracted 7.8% in Q2, marking the worst
reading since Q4 2020 (Q1: -0.9% yoy), weighed on by high interest rates
and, potentially, by political uncertainty. Exports of goods and services growth
eased to 2.5% in Q2 (Q1: +2.6% yoy).
Meanwhile, imports of goods and services fell at a steeper pace of 14.5% in
Q2 (Q1: -7.6% yoy), and public consumption growth rebounded to 2.3% in Q2
(Q1: -0.3% yoy).
Turning to Q3, economic activity is likely to remain weak in the face of high
inflation and interest rates, and anemic demand from Colombia’s main trading
partners. Rising political instability may also weigh on investment.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs were downbeat on the outlook:
Economic Activity | variation in %
“Domestic demand is now showing consistent signs of moderation following
the strong prints in 2021-1H2022. Going forward, we expect economic
activity to moderate on the back of high inflation, tighter financial conditions,
and a weaker impulse from external activity. Moreover, still elevated policy
uncertainty emanating from the cumulative impact of several tax reforms and
weak business sentiment are likely to impinge further on private investment,
while slow fiscal execution by central government ministries and agencies
may bear on public investment.”
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.4% in 2023, which is
unchanged from one month ago, and expanding 1.8% in 2024.
REAL SECTOR | Economic activity growth gains steam in June
Economic activity expanded 1.7% year on year in June (May: +0.1% yoy). The
upturn was largely driven by growth in the agriculture and services sectors.
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month changes of economic activity in %.
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE).
Purchasing Managers’ Index
Note: Davivienda Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Readings above 50 indicate
an improvement in business conditions while readings below 50 point to a
deterioration.
Source: S&P Global and Davivienda.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity rose at a faster rate
of 1.1% in June (May: +0.6% mom), the best result since January. Meanwhile,
the trend pointed down, with the annual average growth of economic activity
coming in at 2.9% in June, down from May’s 3.5%.
REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing activity falls more sharply in August
The Davivienda Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
fell to 46.8 in August from July’s 48.4. August’s result marked the worst
performance since May 2021. As such, the index fell further below the 50.0
no-change threshold, signaling a sharper deterioration in manufacturing
sector operating conditions compared to the previous month.
Demand fell at the sharpest pace since mid-2021, leading output to decline at
the sharpest rate since November 2022. One reason for this was high interest
rates, according to respondents of the PMI survey. The decline in activity came
despite the sharpest decline in input and output prices in the series’ history.
Meanwhile, weak activity led manufacturers to trim their headcounts for the
| 70
Colombia
September 2023
fourth consecutive month. Finally, business sentiment remained optimistic,
buoyed by hopes of lower inflation and interest rates ahead.
Davivienda’s Andrés Langebaek Rueda said:
“As we have previously mentioned, the slowdown of the Colombian economy
this year is inevitable given the rise in interest rates aimed at correcting the
excess demand observed in the previous year. Let us remember that during
2022 Latin America grew at a rate of 3.9% while Colombia did so at 7.3%.”
FocusEconomics panelists see manufacturing production contracting 0.5%
in 2023, which is down by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and
expanding 1.6% in 2024.
Consumer Sentiment
REAL SECTOR | Consumer confidence deteriorates in July
According to a survey elaborated by Fedesarrollo, consumer confidence fell
to minus 17.4 in July from June’s minus 14.1. As a result, the index moved
further below the 0-point threshold that separates pessimism from optimism
among consumers.
Every component of the consumer confidence index worsened in July, with
the exception of consumers’ views of their financial situations compared to a
year ago. Consumers became less optimistic about their financial situations
a year ahead. They also became more pessimistic about their likelihoods of
purchasing durable goods and about the state of the economy in one year.
Note: Index of consumer sentiment. Values above 0 indicate optimistic
perception, below 0 indicate negative perception.
Source: Fedesarrollo.
Inflation | Consumer Price Index
FocusEconomics panelists see private consumption expanding 0.9% in 2023,
which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding
1.8% in 2024.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation dips in August
Inflation came in at 11.4% in August, which was down from July’s 11.8%.
July’s result represented the lowest inflation in a year. The slowdown was due
to a lower rise in prices for food and housing. However, the reading exceeded
market expectations.
The trend pointed up slightly, with annual average inflation coming in at 12.5%
in August (July: 12.4%).
Finally, consumer prices rose 0.70% from the previous month in August,
picking up from the 0.50% rise logged in July.
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of cons. price index in %.
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE).
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 11.5% on average in
2023, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and rising
5.8% on average in 2024.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Merchandise exports contract in July
Merchandise exports sank 54.1% in annual terms in July, contrasting June’s
5.3% increase. July’s figure marked the largest contraction since November
2014. Meanwhile, merchandise imports plunged 30.6% over the same month
last year in July (June: -20.3% yoy), marking the weakest reading since May
2020.
As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous
month, recording a USD 1.7 billion deficit in July (June 2023: USD 0.7 billion
deficit; July 2022: USD 0.5 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend pointed down, with
the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 15.3 billion
deficit in July, compared to the USD 14.0 billion deficit in June.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 71
Colombia
Merchandise Trade
September 2023
FocusEconomics panelists see merchandise exports falling 5.8% in 2023, which
is down by 1.4 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 4.6% in 2024.
Our panelists see merchandise imports falling 11.2% in 2023, which is down by
1.6 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 4.0% in 2024.
Our panelists see a trade deficit of USD 7.5 billion in 2023 and a trade deficit of
USD 7.4 billion in 2024.
Note: Note: Trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of exports and
imports in %.
Source: National Directorate of Taxes and Customs (DIAN).
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 72
September 2023
Colombia
Economic Indicators | 2018 - 2027
Annual Data
Real Sector
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (COP tn)
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %)
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %)
Total Consumption (ann. var. %)
Private Consumption (ann. var. %)
Government Consumption (ann. var. %)
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %)
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %)
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %)
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %)
Retail Sales (ann. var. %)
Unemployment (% of active population, aop)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop)
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop)
90-day DTF (%, eop)
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop)
Stock Market (ann. var. of MSCI IMI %)
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, aop)
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (USD bn)
Merchandise Imports (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %)
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %)
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn)
International Reserves (USD bn)
International Reserves (months of imports)
External Debt (USD bn)
External Debt (% of GDP)
Quarterly Data
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %)
Private Consumption (ann. var. %)
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %)
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %)
Unemployment (% of active population, aop)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop)
90-day DTF (%, eop)
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, aop)
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (USD bn)
Merchandise Imports (USD bn)
Monthly Data
Economic Activity (IMAE, ann. var. %)
Economic Activity Index (IMAE, mom s.a. var. %)
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %)
Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold)
Unemployment (% of active population)
Consumer Confidence Index (0-pt threshold)
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %)
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, eop)
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %)
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
48.3
6,924
334
988
7.3
2.6
3.5
4.0
3.2
7.4
1.0
0.6
5.8
2.9
5.4
10.0
-3.1
49.3
49.4
6,541
323
1,060
7.3
3.2
4.0
4.3
4.1
5.3
2.2
3.1
7.3
1.5
8.1
10.9
-2.5
50.3
50.4
5,363
270
998
-5.9
-7.3
-7.6
-4.1
-4.9
-0.8
-24.0
-22.7
-19.9
-8.1
-1.7
16.7
-7.8
65.1
51.0
6,241
319
1,193
19.5
11.0
13.4
13.6
14.5
9.8
17.3
15.9
26.7
16.2
12.1
13.8
-7.0
63.0
51.6
6,659
344
1,463
22.6
7.3
9.4
7.8
9.5
0.3
11.4
14.8
22.3
10.7
9.0
11.2
-5.3
61.1
52.2
6,929
361
1,582
8.1
1.4
-0.7
1.2
0.9
2.2
-2.8
1.6
-6.6
-0.5
2.3
11.1
-4.3
58.9
52.7
7,569
399
1,664
5.2
1.8
1.9
2.2
1.8
2.2
0.7
2.7
2.4
1.6
10.9
-4.2
58.7
53.2
8,051
428
1,800
8.2
2.8
3.3
3.3
2.6
3.3
4.8
4.5
4.8
2.9
10.6
-3.7
58.0
53.7
8,545
459
1,940
7.8
3.1
3.2
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.9
4.6
4.2
3.1
10.4
-3.4
55.4
54.3
9,189
499
2,140
10.3
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.2
2.9
4.3
4.6
4.4
3.5
10.2
-3.1
54.6
5.0
3.2
3.2
3.2
4.25
4.54
7.02
-7.9
3,250
2,956
8.7
3.8
3.5
3.8
4.25
4.48
6.42
33.9
3,277
3,281
14.3
1.6
2.5
1.9
1.75
1.89
5.76
-13.9
3,433
3,693
11.8
5.6
3.5
4.4
3.00
3.21
8.46
2.3
3,981
3,743
12.1
13.1
10.2
11.6
12.00
13.70
13.23
4.5
4,810
4,255
9.1
11.5
11.97
12.33
11.60
4,207
4,377
4.7
5.8
7.26
7.52
10.94
4,201
4,172
3.7
3.9
5.64
5.68
9.88
4,201
4,201
3.4
3.3
5.29
5.14
8.89
4,251
4,226
3.2
3.3
5.11
5.83
8.70
4,335
4,293
-4.2
-14.0
-6.4
43.0
49.4
8.1
12.1
11.3
48.4
11.8
132
39.6
Q3 22
7.3
0.9
9.2
14.6
6.9
10.8
11.4
10.8
10.00
10.90
4,532
4,374
-7.1
-6.2
-3.6
15.7
19.3
Nov-22
0.5
-1.6
4.4
47.3
11.3
-24.8
0.77
12.5
4,810
8.7
-4.6
-14.8
-9.9
40.7
50.5
-5.4
2.3
14.0
53.2
12.6
139
42.9
Q4 22
2.0
-1.7
4.0
7.9
3.4
9.8
13.1
12.6
12.00
13.70
4,810
4,808
-6.0
-4.9
-2.8
13.9
16.7
Dec-22
0.9
2.1
0.6
51.1
11.2
-22.3
1.26
13.1
4,810
4.6
-3.4
-9.3
-8.9
32.3
41.2
-20.5
-18.5
7.5
59.0
17.2
155
57.2
Q1 23
3.0
2.2
3.1
-0.9
-0.5
11.7
13.3
13.3
13.00
13.00
4,627
4,760
-4.2
-3.4
-1.9
13.4
15.4
Jan-23
5.1
2.2
0.4
48.5
11.1
-28.6
1.78
13.3
4,632
-2.8
-5.6
-18.0
-14.0
42.7
56.7
32.3
37.7
9.4
58.6
12.4
171
53.8
Q2 23
0.3
-1.0
0.7
-7.8
-4.8
10.2
12.1
12.4
13.25
13.00
4,191
4,432
-3.0
-2.5
-1.7
12.8
14.5
Feb-23
2.6
-1.6
0.3
49.8
11.0
-27.8
1.66
13.3
4,808
-0.2
-6.3
-21.5
-12.0
59.6
71.7
39.5
26.3
17.0
57.3
9.6
184
53.6
Q3 23
0.6
0.3
-0.4
-10.3
-4.4
10.7
10.5
11.0
13.04
12.91
4,141
4,166
-3.7
-3.5
-2.9
15.3
18.2
Mar-23
1.4
0.1
-1.9
51.5
10.8
-28.5
1.05
13.3
4,627
-7.3
-3.9
-14.2
-7.5
56.1
63.6
-5.8
-11.2
58.0
11.0
193
53.4
Q4 23
1.3
0.0
-0.6
-11.1
-1.7
10.4
8.9
9.4
12.03
12.21
4,156
4,148
-4.0
-3.9
-2.4
13.8
16.2
Apr-23
-0.9
-0.8
-6.4
52.6
10.8
-28.8
0.78
12.8
4,669
-31.5
-3.7
-14.7
-7.4
58.7
66.1
4.6
4.0
59.7
10.8
205
51.5
Q1 24
0.7
0.7
0.2
-8.0
-0.8
11.6
6.7
7.0
10.41
11.24
4,185
4,171
-3.8
-3.7
May-23
0.1
0.6
-3.1
49.9
10.8
-22.8
0.44
12.4
4,409
-3.5
-3.5
-15.0
-5.7
62.8
68.6
7.0
3.7
63.7
11.1
211
49.2
Q2 24
1.7
0.6
0.9
2.1
2.0
10.6
6.1
6.0
9.22
10.28
4,180
4,183
-3.8
-3.7
Jun-23
1.7
1.1
-4.8
49.8
10.6
-14.1
0.30
12.1
4,191
5.3
-3.4
-15.7
-6.0
63.7
69.7
1.4
1.7
62.4
10.7
221
48.1
Q3 24
2.3
0.9
1.8
3.2
2.5
10.6
5.3
5.3
8.14
9.14
4,168
4,174
-3.7
-3.7
Jul-23
48.4
10.5
-17.4
0.50
11.8
3,923
-54.1
-3.5
-17.2
-6.7
66.2
72.9
3.9
4.6
64.8
10.7
230
46.0
Q4 24
2.8
0.5
2.4
4.5
3.0
10.1
4.7
4.8
7.08
8.00
4,149
4,158
-3.9
-4.0
Aug-23
46.8
0.70
11.4
4,085
-
Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey. Due to the absence of a standard definition, the Consensus Forecast for public debt contains a range of
definitions.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 73
September 2023
Colombia
Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product
1 | Real GDP | 2011 - 2027 | var. in %
3 | GDP 2023 | evolution of forecasts
2 | Real GDP | Q4 20-Q4 24 | var. in %
4 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts
5 | GDP 2023 | Panelist Distribution
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts
Acciones y Valores
AGPV
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria
Allianz
Asobancaria
Banco Agrario de Colombia
Banco Davivienda
Banco de Bogotá
Bancolombia
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Corficolombiana
Credicorp Capital
DekaBank
Ecoanalítica
Econosignal
EIU
EmergingMarketWatch
Euromonitor Int.
Fedesarrollo
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Julius Baer
Kiel Institute
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pantheon Macroeconomics
Pezco Economics
Positiva Compañía de Seguros
S&P Global Ratings
Scotiabank Colpatria
Standard Chartered
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
CEPAL
OECD
World Bank
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2023
1.4
1.5
1.2
1.8
0.9
1.1
1.1
1.5
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.2
2.8
1.5
1.2
1.3
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.6
1.0
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.3
1.5
1.0
1.2
1.5
0.9
1.3
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.8
1.2
1.3
1.6
2024
1.8
2.0
2.2
1.9
2.0
1.5
1.4
1.6
0.9
2.0
2.5
1.5
1.8
1.8
2.1
2.2
3.0
1.9
2.0
2.8
2.1
1.6
2.0
1.2
2.0
2.3
2.0
2.0
1.6
1.4
-0.9
1.6
2.3
0.1
2.0
1.5
2.9
2.0
2.6
1.4
2.5
1.0
1.2
1.5
1.7
2.2
1.9
1.8
2.0
0.9
2.8
1.3
1.4
-0.9
3.0
2.0
1.8
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.9
1.9
2.1
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute
(DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
1
2
3
4
5
GDP, real annual variation in %.
Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
GDP, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
GDP, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 74
September 2023
Colombia
Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Consumption and Investment
Individual Forecasts
Acciones y Valores
Asobancaria
Banco Agrario de Colombia
Banco Davivienda
Bancolombia
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Corficolombiana
Credicorp Capital
Ecoanalítica
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
Fedesarrollo
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
S&P Global Ratings
Scotiabank Colpatria
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
OECD
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
6 | Consumption | variation in %
Consumption
variation in %
2023
2024
1.8
1.4
2.0
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.2
0.8
1.5
2.0
3.2
0.2
2.1
0.2
1.6
1.2
2.0
1.1
2.9
0.8
1.8
1.1
2.7
0.9
3.0
0.8
2.3
1.2
2.0
1.4
2.0
1.3
2.6
1.2
2.7
1.2
2.2
1.2
2.5
-0.5
-4.3
1.2
1.5
0.8
1.6
-0.4
2.6
0.2
1.5
2.7
Investment
variation in %
2023
2024
-4.6
-8.3
-1.1
0.0
-5.7
1.1
-5.1
1.0
-5.5
-0.6
-0.8
0.0
-1.0
-1.2
-8.1
-1.6
-0.6
2.5
0.8
2.4
-5.4
5.5
1.7
2.6
-2.2
0.0
0.8
-
0.8
0.8
-3.1
-1.5
2.1
0.7
-0.5
2.0
0.9
0.9
-4.3
3.2
2.0
1.8
-8.3
1.7
-1.8
-2.8
-4.6
5.5
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
1.9
2.0
2.2
-0.3
-0.6
0.4
1.4
1.7
1.8
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
8 | Investment | variation in %
9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo
Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
6
7
8
9
Private consumption, annual variation in %.
Private consumption, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 75
September 2023
Colombia
Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Manufacturing and Unemployment
Individual Forecasts
Asobancaria
Banco Agrario de Colombia
Bancolombia
BancTrust & Co.
BBVA Research
Capital Economics
Corficolombiana
Credicorp Capital
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
Fedesarrollo
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Positiva Compañía de Seguros
S&P Global Ratings
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
OECD
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
10 | Manufacturing | variation in %
Manufacturing
variation in %
2023
2024
-3.2
-0.2
-1.3
-0.7
1.9
2.0
5.0
5.8
-2.3
1.0
-3.3
2.4
-1.7
0.7
1.2
1.8
-
Unemployment
% of active pop.
2023
2024
10.9
11.0
10.6
11.1
10.9
11.8
11.2
10.9
10.7
11.4
10.6
9.6
11.7
11.6
11.9
11.5
10.2
9.8
11.5
11.2
12.0
12.0
12.0
10.6
10.8
11.4
10.5
10.1
10.1
11.2
11.6
11.5
11.0
11.3
10.9
11.4
10.5
9.5
-
-
10.4
10.6
10.7
10.5
-3.3
5.0
-1.5
-0.5
-0.7
5.8
1.4
1.6
10.1
12.0
11.1
11.1
9.5
12.0
11.0
10.9
-0.4
-0.1
0.1
1.9
2.0
2.5
11.1
11.3
11.3
10.8
10.9
10.8
11 | Manufacturing | evol. of forecasts
12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo
Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
10 Manufacturing production, annual variation in %.
11 Manufacturing production, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 76
September 2023
Colombia
Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Fiscal Balance and Public Debt
Individual Forecasts
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria
Asobancaria
Banco Agrario de Colombia
Banco Davivienda
Banco de Bogotá
Bancolombia
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Corficolombiana
Credicorp Capital
DekaBank
EIU
Fedesarrollo
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
JPMorgan
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Scotiabank Colpatria
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
Fiscal Balance
% of GDP
2023
-4.3
-4.3
-4.3
-4.3
-4.5
-4.4
-4.3
-4.1
-4.0
-5.5
-4.1
-4.3
-4.3
-4.2
-4.2
-4.4
-3.6
-5.1
-4.2
-4.3
-4.8
-4.2
-4.3
-4.1
2024
-4.5
-5.0
-4.5
-3.9
-4.8
-3.3
-3.8
-3.7
-5.0
-4.3
-4.5
-4.5
-4.1
-4.1
-5.5
-3.7
-3.9
-3.8
-4.5
-4.4
-2.9
-4.5
-4.0
Public Debt
% of GDP
2023
55.8
55.8
56.3
58.3
65.5
55.7
58.7
61.5
60.2
54.1
59.2
61.6
61.4
57.6
62.4
2024
57.4
57.1
57.1
57.5
64.5
57.0
62.2
62.1
55.4
58.1
63.5
62.7
49.1
59.6
-4.3
-4.5
56.7
56.4
-5.5
-3.6
-4.3
-4.3
-5.5
-2.9
-4.3
-4.2
54.1
65.5
58.7
58.9
49.1
64.5
57.8
58.7
-4.3
-4.3
-4.3
-4.1
-4.0
-3.9
59.8
60.7
61.2
59.6
60.5
60.5
15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
17 | Public Debt | evolution of fcst
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República) and the Colombian
Ministry of Finance & Public Credit (MINHACIENDA). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
13
15
16
17
Central government balance as % of GDP. Source: BanRep.
Central government balance, change in 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
Public debt as % of GDP. Source: MINHACIENDA.
Public debt, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 77
September 2023
Colombia
Monetary Sector | Inflation
Consumer Prices
Individual Forecasts
Acciones y Valores
AGPV
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria
Allianz
Asobancaria
Banco Agrario de Colombia
Banco Davivienda
Banco de Bogotá
Bancolombia
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Corficolombiana
Credicorp Capital
DekaBank
Ecoanalítica
Econosignal
EIU
EmergingMarketWatch
Euromonitor Int.
Fedesarrollo
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pantheon Macroeconomics
Pezco Economics
Positiva Compañía de Seguros
S&P Global Ratings
Scotiabank Colpatria
Standard Chartered
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
OECD
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
18 | Inflation | 2011 - 2027 | in %
Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop
2023
2024
8.7
4.0
9.0
4.5
8.2
4.1
8.9
5.2
9.8
6.3
9.7
4.9
8.9
4.5
9.0
5.3
8.7
4.5
8.2
4.0
9.0
5.1
9.6
4.2
8.0
3.7
9.6
5.6
8.4
4.0
9.0
4.9
9.2
4.4
7.3
4.2
9.9
5.2
9.2
5.0
9.1
4.2
9.1
4.6
9.0
4.7
9.1
4.5
8.6
4.7
8.4
4.4
9.5
5.0
8.8
3.9
9.7
6.3
8.9
4.5
11.4
4.3
8.6
4.2
10.0
9.3
5.1
Consumer Prices
variation in %, aop
2023
2024
11.5
5.4
11.8
5.8
11.6
6.3
11.8
7.7
11.7
6.4
9.9
4.9
11.7
7.3
11.5
4.9
11.4
5.2
11.6
6.6
11.5
5.5
11.2
4.9
11.6
7.3
10.9
6.2
11.5
4.2
11.6
5.8
11.7
5.9
11.5
4.0
11.6
5.9
11.5
6.5
11.6
6.0
11.2
6.1
11.6
6.1
11.4
5.2
11.0
5.7
11.5
4.5
11.6
6.0
11.5
5.4
11.2
4.2
11.4
8.0
11.6
5.8
11.4
4.3
11.5
5.0
11.6
5.1
13.1
11.8
6.4
8.9
-
5.0
-
11.0
11.8
7.0
6.1
7.3
11.4
9.0
9.1
3.7
6.3
4.5
4.7
9.9
13.1
11.5
11.5
4.0
8.0
5.8
5.8
8.9
8.9
9.0
4.7
4.6
4.6
11.4
11.4
11.3
5.7
5.7
5.6
19 | Inflation | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in %
20 | Inflation 2023 | evolution of fcst
21 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 78
September 2023
Colombia
Monetary Sector | Interest Rate
22 | Interest Rate | 2011 - 2027 | in %
24 | Int. Rate 2023 | evolution of fcst
23 | Interest Rate | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in %
25 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst
26 | Interest Rate 2023 | Panelist Distribution
Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Individual Forecasts
Acciones y Valores
AGPV
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria
Asobancaria
Banco Agrario de Colombia
Banco Davivienda
Banco de Bogotá
Bancolombia
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
CABI
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Corficolombiana
Credicorp Capital
Ecoanalítica
Econosignal
EIU
Fedesarrollo
Fitch Solutions
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pantheon Macroeconomics
Positiva Compañía de Seguros
S&P Global Ratings
Scotiabank Colpatria
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2023
10.75
12.00
11.50
12.25
13.25
12.50
12.25
12.50
12.00
12.00
12.50
11.00
12.25
11.25
12.00
11.25
12.50
11.50
12.75
11.50
12.25
11.50
12.00
12.25
11.75
13.00
12.75
11.00
12.50
13.25
12.25
9.00
12.25
2024
6.50
7.00
5.50
8.25
10.00
7.50
8.50
7.00
7.00
7.00
8.00
7.25
5.75
6.00
7.00
7.25
6.00
8.50
6.50
7.00
7.00
6.75
7.00
8.75
9.00
6.00
7.50
9.00
5.75
7.50
11.75
7.25
9.00
13.25
12.13
11.97
5.50
10.00
7.00
7.26
11.89
11.79
11.65
7.24
7.23
6.97
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BanRep,
Banco de la República). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
18 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
19 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
20 Inflation, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
22 Interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
23 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
24 Interest rate, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
25 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
26 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 79
September 2023
Colombia
Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate
27 | Exchange Rate | COP per USD
29 | COP per USD 2023 | evol. of fcst
28 | Exchange Rate | COP per USD
30 | COP per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst
31 | COP per USD 2023 | Panelist Distribution
Exchange Rate | COP per USD
Individual Forecasts
Acciones y Valores
AGPV
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria
Asobancaria
Banco Agrario de Colombia
Banco Davivienda
Banco de Bogotá
Bancolombia
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Corficolombiana
Credicorp Capital
Ecoanalítica
Econosignal
EIU
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
HSBC
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Positiva Compañía de Seguros
S&P Global Ratings
Scotiabank Colpatria
Standard Chartered
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2023
4,280
4,300
4,000
4,100
4,035
4,270
4,100
4,165
4,331
4,000
4,300
4,500
4,128
4,137
4,300
4,489
4,180
4,125
4,500
4,350
3,950
4,100
4,400
4,104
3,807
4,137
4,200
4,350
4,250
4,050
4,500
2024
3,900
4,300
3,800
3,800
3,950
4,182
4,280
4,571
4,250
4,550
4,200
4,043
4,157
4,500
3,994
4,200
4,071
4,500
4,400
4,300
4,229
3,932
4,303
4,186
4,500
4,316
4,100
4,420
4,185
3,900
3,807
4,500
4,183
4,207
3,800
4,571
4,200
4,201
4,294
4,399
4,605
4,306
4,360
4,515
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Macrobond Financial AB.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
27
28
29
30
31
Exchange rate, COP per USD (eop).
Quarterly exchange rate, COP per USD (eop).
Exchange rate, evolution of 2023 forecast during the last 12 months.
Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecast during the last 12 months.
Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 80
September 2023
Colombia
External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance
Current Account and Trade Balance
Individual Forecasts
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria
Asobancaria
Banco Agrario de Colombia
Banco Davivienda
Banco de Bogotá
Bancolombia
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Corficolombiana
Credicorp Capital
DekaBank
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
Fedesarrollo
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
JPMorgan
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Scotiabank Colpatria
Standard Chartered
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
OECD
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
32 | Current Account | % of GDP
Current Account
% of GDP
2024
2023
-4.0
-4.0
-3.7
-3.4
-4.1
-3.3
-4.1
-4.2
-3.9
-3.4
-3.3
-4.1
-4.2
-3.5
-3.6
-4.3
-4.1
-3.8
-3.5
-2.9
-3.7
-3.8
-3.5
-3.8
-4.1
-4.0
-3.4
-4.0
-3.7
-3.7
-4.3
-4.0
-4.1
-4.0
-3.7
-3.3
-4.1
-4.0
-3.4
-3.8
-4.5
-4.0
-3.7
-3.3
-3.4
-4.4
-4.0
-4.4
-3.9
-4.0
-3.5
-4.0
-4.2
-3.2
-3.8
-3.2
Trade Balance
USD bn
2023
-7.0
-10.6
-4.5
-8.4
-7.8
-7.6
-8.7
-3.9
-7.6
-7.3
-11.7
-12.6
-6.0
-11.3
-4.5
-8.2
2024
-12.8
-6.3
-7.7
-8.0
-8.9
-8.7
-7.1
-8.7
-2.0
-12.9
-15.2
-1.7
-10.8
-8.4
-3.9
-4.1
-3.6
-4.0
-6.8
-
-9.0
-
-4.5
-3.2
-4.0
-3.9
-4.3
-2.9
-3.7
-3.7
-12.6
-3.9
-7.6
-7.5
-15.2
-1.7
-8.5
-7.4
-4.0
-4.1
-4.3
-3.8
-3.8
-3.9
-7.6
-8.4
-8.6
-7.4
-8.3
-8.6
33 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
34 | Trade Balance | USD bn
35 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República) and the
Colombian National Directorate of Taxes & Customs (DIAN). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
32 Current account balance, as % of GDP. Source: BanRep.
33 Current account balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: DIAN.
35 Trade balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 81
September 2023
Colombia
External Sector | Exports and Imports
Exports and Imports
Individual Forecasts
Banco Davivienda
Bancolombia
BancTrust & Co.
BBVA Research
Citigroup Global Mkts
Corficolombiana
Credicorp Capital
EIU
Fedesarrollo
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
36 | Exports | variation in %
Exports
USD bn
2023
47.6
52.5
60.1
53.3
51.4
53.6
54.3
52.5
56.8
51.0
57.0
55.2
59.1
61.0
68.4
59.9
2024
51.3
61.4
54.9
56.9
56.4
59.6
54.7
59.6
62.7
58.9
54.1
60.7
62.2
63.5
Imports
USD bn
2023
54.6
55.3
63.1
64.6
61.7
59.2
61.2
63.0
56.4
64.4
58.3
64.2
67.8
65.1
72.3
72.9
68.1
2024
51.3
64.0
67.7
62.6
64.9
65.3
68.3
61.8
68.3
64.7
64.8
69.3
62.4
73.0
71.9
57.2
61.4
64.0
70.3
47.6
68.4
56.0
56.1
51.3
63.5
59.6
58.7
54.6
72.9
64.0
63.6
51.3
73.6
65.3
66.1
57.2
57.4
57.8
59.9
59.6
59.7
64.7
65.9
66.4
67.3
67.9
68.4
37 | Exports | evolution of fcst
38 | Imports | variation in %
39 | Imports | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Colombian National Directorate of Taxes & Customs (DIAN).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
36 Exports, annual variation in %.
37 Exports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 Imports, annual variation in %.
39 Imports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 82
September 2023
Colombia
External Sector | Additional forecasts
International Reserves and External Debt
Individual Forecasts
Acciones y Valores
AGPV
Banco Davivienda
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
Citigroup Global Mkts
Corficolombiana
Credicorp Capital
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
JPMorgan
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Scotiabank Colpatria
Torino Capital
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
40 | Int. Reserves | months of imports
International Reserves
USD bn
2023
2024
54.0
53.5
58.0
59.0
56.0
57.4
56.8
58.0
58.0
57.9
58.5
57.5
57.3
57.3
58.1
58.5
60.3
57.3
57.8
57.1
57.0
58.6
58.2
58.0
58.0
62.1
72.0
62.6
66.6
57.0
58.3
60.2
64.4
External Debt
USD bn
2023
2024
190
195
205
221
181
185
194
204
218
192
187
191
208
219
185
196
210
53.5
62.6
57.9
58.0
54.0
72.0
58.1
59.7
181
208
192
193
185
221
207
205
58.0
58.0
57.9
59.7
59.5
59.6
193
194
195
205
206
207
41 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
42 | External Debt | % of GDP
43 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
40 International reserves, months of imports.
41 International reserves, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
42 External debt as % of GDP.
43 External debt, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 83
September 2023
Colombia
Fact Sheet
General Data
Colombia in the Region
Republic of Colombia
Bogotá (10.6m)
Medellín (3.9m)
Cali (2.7m)
1,138,910
51.0
44.8
0.9
76.6
4.9
Spanish
Metric system
GMT-5
Official name:
Capital:
Other cities:
Area (km2):
Population (million, 2019 est.):
Population density (per km2, 2019):
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.):
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.):
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018 est.):
Language:
Measures:
Time:
Economic Infrastructure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants):
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.):
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants):
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants):
Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu):
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu):
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h):
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h):
Oil Supply (thousand bpd):
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd):
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons):
Transportation (2018)
Airports:
Railways (km):
Roadways (km):
Waterways (km):
Chief Ports:
Population | %-share in Latin America
GDP | %-share in Latin America
Economic Structure
14.0
130
64.1
13.4
GDP by Sector | share in %
GDP by Expenditure | share in %
5,098
1,661
73.4
67.9
879
338
93.1
836
2,141
206,500
24,725
Cartagena, Buenaventura
Trade Structure
Primary markets | share in %
Political Data
President:
Last elections:
Next elections:
Central Bank President:
Gustavo Petro
29 May 2022
2026
Leonardo Villar Gómez
Exports
Imports
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
Agency
Moody's:
S&P Global Ratings:
Fitch Ratings:
Strengths
• Plentiful natural resources,
including coffee, oil and gas, coal,
gold
• Ports on two oceans
• Consolidated financial system
• Thriving tourism sector
Rating
Baa2
BB+
BB+
Outlook
Stable
Stable
Stable
Primary products | share in %
Weaknesses
• Vulnerability to downward shifts in
international commodity prices
• Relatively undiversified economy
and large informal sector
• Shortages of skilled labor and
poor productivity
• High poverty and inequality rates
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
Exports
Imports
| 84
Mexico
September 2023
Mexico
Outlook improves
Mexico
•
Revised data put GDP growth at 0.8% quarter on quarter in Q2, down
slightly from the preliminary estimate but still robust compared to growth
in the years leading up to the pandemic. Construction boomed 6.5%,
which could be linked to progress on the government’s large infrastructure
projects and nearshoring activity by private firms. In addition, retail, and
cultural and recreation activity grew strongly, underpinned by rising
remittances inflows, low unemployment and wage growth comfortably
outpacing inflation. Turning to Q3, both the manufacturing and nonmanufacturing PMIs pointed to improving economic conditions in
July–August. In particular, the manufacturing PMI data suggests that
Mexico’s industrial sector is outperforming the global average, boosted
by nearshoring, fading supply constraints for car manufacturers and solid
export demand from the U.S.
•
Economic growth should substantially outperform the Latin American
average in 2023 thanks to healthy private consumption growth, rising
car production, resilient goods exports to the U.S. and investment by
firms looking to shift production closer to the U.S. market. GDP forecasts
could be revised up further going forward in light of strong recent data.
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.7% in 2023, which is
up by 0.3 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 1.8%
in 2024.
•
Inflation fell to 4.6% in August from July’s 4.8%, the lowest rate since
February 2021. Our panelists expect inflation to average slightly above
the upper bound of the Central Bank’s 2.0–4.0% target range in H2 and
through most of 2024, fueled by robust economic activity, the recent
uptick in global oil prices, brisk wage growth and an expected weakening
of the peso. FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 5.6%
on average in 2023, which is unchanged from one month ago, and rising
4.1% on average in 2024.
•
On 10 August, Banxico left the overnight interbank interest rate target at
11.25%, following a similar hold in June. The Bank repeated its intention
to “maintain the reference rate at its current level for an extended
period”. Most panelists see Banxico starting to loosen its monetary
stance in Q4 2023, though some see rates unchanged through year-end.
FocusEconomics panelists see the Banxico target rate ending 2023 at
10.82% and ending 2024 at 8.40%.
•
The peso traded at MXN 17.55 per USD on 7 September, depreciating
2.7% month on month. Higher U.S. bond yields likely weighed on the peso,
though the currency is still 12% stronger year to date on nearshoring and
strong remittances and inward investment. The peso should weaken from
current levels by end-2023 as the interest rate differential with the U.S.
narrows. FocusEconomics panelists see the peso ending 2023 at MXN
17.99 per USD and ending 2024 at MXN 18.72 per USD.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
Population (million):
GDP (USD bn):
GDP per capita (USD):
GDP growth (%):
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP):
Public Debt (% of GDP):
Inflation (%):
Current Account (% of GDP):
External Debt (% of GDP):
2019-21
128
1,246
9,751
-1.0
-2.4
49.3
4.2
0.3
49.9
2022-24
131
1,635
12,458
2.8
-3.5
49.4
5.9
-1.1
39.8
2025-27
134
1,914
14,244
2.3
-2.9
49.9
3.5
-1.2
39.5
Oliver Reynolds
Economist
Economic Growth
Change in GDP forecasts
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024
2020 - Q4 2024.
forecasts during the last 12 months.
Inflation
Change in inflation forecasts
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2023 and 2024
average variation in %, Q4 2020 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2024.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 85
Mexico
Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs
Note: Seasonally-adjusted IMEF manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs.
Readings above 50 indicate an expansion/improvement of the manufacturing
sector while readings below 50 indicate a contraction/deterioration.
Source: The Mexican Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF, Instituto Mexicano
de Ejecutivos de Finanzas).
Consumer Confidence
September 2023
REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing PMI improves in August; nonmanufacturing PMI stable
The Mexican Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF) Manufacturing
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 52.3 in August, up from
July’s 51.3. August’s result marked the strongest reading since April 2022.
Consequently, the index moved further above the 50.0 no-change threshold,
signaling a faster improvement in manufacturing sector operating conditions
compared to the previous month. Faster expansions in new orders and
employment underpinned the reading. Meanwhile, the non-Manufacturing
PMI clocked in at 52.1 in August, unchanged from July.
Taken together, PMI data for July–August suggests that Mexico’s economy
continues to expand in Q3. Strong remittances and tourism are likely
supporting services, while the manufacturing sector is performing particularly
well by international standards; the JPM Global Manufacturing PMI stood at
49.0 in August. This is likely thanks to strong merchandise export demand
from the still-robust U.S. economy, and nearshoring activity as some firms
move manufacturing activity from Asia to Mexico in order to secure access to
the U.S. market.
REAL SECTOR | Consumer confidence hits highest reading since March
2019 in August
Consumer confidence came in at 46.7 in August, up from July’s 46.3. August’s
result marked the strongest sentiment since March 2019. Despite the uptick,
the index remained below the 50-point threshold, pointing to improving—albeit
still pessimistic—confidence among consumers.
August’s reading was driven by consumers’ improved sentiment regarding
their personal financial conditions, general economic conditions, and their
willingness to make major purchases. Improved consumer confidence so far
in Q3 should support further sequential growth in private consumption in the
quarter, and private consumption is likely to be a key driver of GDP growth
over 2023 as a whole.
Note: Consumer confidence indicator. (ICC, Indicador de Confianza del
Consumidor).
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI).
Inflation | Consumer Price Index
FocusEconomics panelists see private consumption expanding 3.1% in 2023,
which is up by 0.3 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding
1.9% in 2024.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation falls to lowest level since February 2021
in August
Inflation ticked down to 4.6% in August, which followed July’s 4.8% and was
in line with market expectations. August’s result represented the weakest
inflation rate since February 2021, but was still above the Central Bank’s
2.0%–4.0% target range. Looking at the details of the release, lower price
pressures for clothing and food drove the slowdown.
Annual average inflation fell to 6.8% in August (July: 7.1%). Meanwhile, core
inflation fell to 6.1% in August from July’s 6.6%, marginally below market
expectations.
Finally, consumer prices increased 0.55% over the previous month in August,
accelerating from the 0.48% rise recorded in July.
Note: Year-on-year and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI).
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
Looking ahead, headline inflation is forecast to average slightly above 4%
for the remainder of this year, buoyed by the recent uptick in global oil prices
but contained by past peso appreciation. August’s inflation data is unlikely to
radically alter the Central Bank’s stance: Banxico is expected to start cutting
rates in Q4 this year or Q1 2024.
| 86
Mexico
September 2023
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 5.6% on average in
2023, which is unchanged from one month ago, and rising 4.1% on average
in 2024.
Monetary Policy Rate | in %
MONETARY SECTOR | Banxico leaves policy rate unchanged in August
At its meeting on 10 August, the Governing Board of the Bank of Mexico
(Banxico) left the overnight interbank interest rate target at 11.25%, following
a similar hold in June.
The decision to hold followed 575 basis points of rate hikes since January
2022, and came against a backdrop of peso appreciation and declining
headline and core inflation which rendered further tightening unnecessary. On
the flipside, it was premature to begin cutting rates given that the economy
has recently performed stronger than the Bank expected and that headline
inflation, core inflation and long-term market inflation expectations are all still
above the Central Bank’s 3.0% target.
Note: Banxico target rate (Tasa objetivo de fondeo bancario) in %.
Source: Mexico Central Bank (Banxico).
Concerning forward guidance, the Bank repeated its intention to “maintain
the reference rate at its current level for an extended period”. Most panelists
see Banxico starting to loosen its monetary stance in Q4 2023, though some
panelists see rates unchanged through year-end.
On the outlook, Goldman Sachs analysts said:
“The forward guidance did not change; [it] remained conservative and signaling
on hold for long. We expect the MPC to hold the policy rate unchanged until
late 4Q2023, possibly 1H2024.”
In contrast, Itau Unibanco analysts were more dovish:
“Banxico is unlikely to change the monetary policy stance in the September
meeting, but as inflation eases more clearly towards 4Q23 they will start
considering rate cuts. Our base case is a 25-bp rate cut in each of the last
two meetings of the year (November and December), implying an end of year
policy rate of 10.75%.”
FocusEconomics panelists see the Banxico target rate ending 2023 at 10.82%
and ending 2024 at 8.40%.
Merchandise Trade
Note: Trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of exports and imports
in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and FocusEconomics
calculations.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Merchandise exports accelerate in July
Merchandise exports climbed 2.9% in annual terms in July (June: +1.1% yearon-year). While oil exports tumbled, this was more than offset by a rise in
manufacturing exports. In particular, automobile exports rose by more than
a third, boosted by improved global supply chains. Mexico’s merchandise
exports have expanded in the first seven months of the year, in contrast to
the contraction recorded by G20 countries overall. Meanwhile, merchandise
imports decreased 7.7% over the same month last year in July (June: -6.2%
yoy), marking the weakest result since October 2020.
As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous
month, recording a USD 0.9 billion deficit in July (June 2023: USD 0.0 billion
surplus; July 2022: USD 6.2 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend improved, with
the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 15.1 billion
deficit in July, compared to the USD 20.4 billion deficit in June.
FocusEconomics panelists see merchandise exports rising 5.3% in 2023,
which is down by 0.9 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 5.1%
in 2024.
Our panelists see merchandise imports rising 3.7% in 2023, which is down by
0.6 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 4.5% in 2024.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 87
Mexico
September 2023
Our panelists see a trade deficit of USD 18.5 billion in 2023 and a trade deficit
of USD 16.0 billion in 2024.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 88
September 2023
Mexico
Economic Indicators | 2018 - 2027
Annual Data
Real Sector
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (MXN bn)
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %)
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %)
Private Consumption (ann. var. %)
Government Consumption (ann. var. %)
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %)
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %)
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %)
Industrial Production (ann. var. %)
Retail Sales (ann. var. %)
Unemployment (% of active population, aop)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Monetary and Financial Sector
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)
Banxico Target Rate (%, eop)
TIIE 28 Days Rate (%, eop)
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop)
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, aop)
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (USD bn)
Merchandise Imports (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %)
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %)
Remittances (USD bn)
International Reserves (USD bn)
International Reserves (months of imports)
External Debt (USD bn)
External Debt (% of GDP)
Quarterly Data
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %)
Private Consumption (ann. var. %)
Government Consumption (ann. var. %)
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %)
Industrial Production (ann. var. %)
Retail Sales (ann. var. %)
Unemployment (% of active population, aop)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop)
Banxico Target Rate (%, eop)
TIIE 28 Days Rate (%, eop)
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop)
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, aop)
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (USD bn)
Merchandise Imports (USD bn)
Monthly Data
Economic Activity (IGAE, mom s.a. var. %)
Industrial Production (ann. var. %)
Unemployment (% of active population)
Consumer Confidence Indicator
IMEF Manufacturing Index (50-pt threshold)
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %)
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, eop)
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %)
Remittances (ann. var. %)
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
125
10,028
1,257
24,177
7.3
2.0
2.2
2.6
2.9
0.8
6.0
6.4
0.4
1.3
3.3
-2.0
45.6
127
10,318
1,306
25,143
4.0
-0.3
-0.9
0.4
-1.8
-4.7
1.5
-0.7
-1.8
2.2
3.5
-1.6
45.5
128
8,767
1,120
24,080
-4.2
-8.7
-10.6
-10.3
-0.3
-17.7
-7.3
-13.7
-9.4
-8.8
4.4
-2.8
51.7
129
10,169
1,312
26,609
10.5
5.8
7.0
7.5
-0.6
10.7
7.1
15.6
5.6
13.1
4.1
-2.8
50.7
130
11,270
1,466
29,504
10.9
3.9
5.4
6.1
0.8
6.0
7.6
8.7
3.2
7.4
3.3
-3.2
48.3
131
12,878
1,690
30,046
1.8
2.7
3.5
3.1
1.3
5.3
1.4
3.3
2.0
3.1
-3.8
49.7
132
13,227
1,750
31,988
6.5
1.8
2.1
1.9
1.6
1.9
3.0
2.7
2.1
3.4
-3.6
50.3
133
13,728
1,831
34,897
9.1
2.3
2.8
2.7
1.4
2.0
3.5
3.6
2.4
3.4
-3.2
50.5
134
14,191
1,907
37,207
6.6
2.3
2.7
2.6
1.6
2.5
3.4
3.7
2.8
3.3
-2.9
49.8
135
14,813
2,005
39,578
6.4
2.3
2.5
2.5
1.7
2.5
3.4
3.7
2.7
3.3
-2.6
49.5
4.8
4.9
8.25
8.60
8.69
19.7
19.2
2.8
3.6
7.25
7.56
6.86
18.9
19.3
3.2
3.4
4.25
4.48
5.47
19.9
21.5
7.4
5.7
5.50
5.72
7.55
20.5
20.3
7.8
7.9
10.50
10.76
9.04
19.5
20.1
4.5
5.6
10.82
11.08
8.55
18.0
17.8
3.9
4.1
8.40
8.56
7.86
18.7
18.3
3.6
3.6
6.86
7.04
7.44
19.4
19.1
3.5
3.5
6.75
6.56
7.25
19.6
19.5
3.6
3.5
6.67
6.47
7.27
19.9
19.7
-2.1
-26.0
-13.6
451
464
10.1
10.4
33.7
175
4.5
593
47.2
Q3 22
5.1
1.2
6.3
2.1
3.8
3.5
7.7
3.4
8.7
9.25
9.02
9.65
20.1
20.2
-1.7
-6.4
-12.9
149
162
Nov-22
0.0
3.3
2.8
42.2
51.0
0.58
7.8
19.4
7.9
3.3
-0.4
-5.7
5.4
461
455
2.2
-2.0
36.4
181
4.8
622
47.6
Q4 22
4.2
0.6
4.5
1.9
7.6
3.1
7.3
3.0
7.8
10.50
10.76
9.04
19.5
19.7
0.7
2.6
-1.2
148
149
Dec-22
0.3
2.9
2.8
42.8
51.4
0.38
7.8
19.5
3.0
12.6
2.0
22.5
34.2
417
383
-9.4
-15.9
40.6
196
6.1
629
56.1
Q1 23
3.8
0.8
4.8
0.7
9.5
2.5
5.3
2.7
6.8
11.25
11.43
8.81
18.1
18.7
-5.0
-20.3
-4.8
141
146
Jan-23
0.5
2.6
3.0
44.4
49.8
0.68
7.9
18.8
25.6
12.9
-0.6
-8.3
-10.8
495
506
18.6
32.0
51.6
202
4.8
603
46.0
Q2 23
3.6
0.8
3.1
1.0
6.5
2.8
4.1
2.8
5.1
11.25
11.49
8.67
17.2
17.7
1.4
6.2
-1.5
151
152
Feb-23
0.0
3.3
2.7
44.9
51.3
0.56
7.6
18.3
-3.0
11.4
-1.2
-18.0
-26.9
578
605
16.7
19.6
58.5
199
4.0
589
40.1
Q3 23
2.4
0.2
3.1
1.2
5.5
1.7
1.3
3.1
4.5
11.25
11.50
8.86
17.3
17.2
-0.9
-4.4
-6.3
156
162
Mar-23
0.0
1.5
2.4
44.6
49.6
0.27
6.8
18.1
3.1
10.5
-1.0
-17.3
-18.5
609
627
5.3
3.7
62.0
204
3.9
665
39.3
Q4 23
1.9
0.1
2.6
1.9
1.4
1.6
3.2
4.6
10.97
11.22
8.62
17.7
17.5
0.0
-0.1
-2.4
163
165
Apr-23
0.7
0.7
2.8
44.3
50.1
-0.02
6.3
18.0
-2.9
6.2
-0.9
-16.6
-16.0
639
655
5.1
4.5
63.6
209
3.8
697
39.8
Q1 24
1.5
0.5
1.1
2.0
-0.2
1.7
3.2
4.4
10.35
10.50
8.43
18.0
17.9
-2.6
-12.1
-5.1
152
157
May-23
0.2
3.9
2.9
44.7
49.8
-0.22
5.8
17.8
5.8
10.8
-1.1
-19.3
-23.6
666
690
4.1
5.2
65.7
221
3.9
753
41.1
Q2 24
1.6
0.6
1.6
1.8
0.7
1.8
3.2
4.5
9.74
9.80
8.24
18.4
18.2
-0.2
-0.8
-0.7
163
164
Jun-23
0.5
3.7
2.7
45.4
51.0
0.10
5.1
17.2
1.1
8.4
-1.3
-25.7
-25.0
694
719
4.2
4.3
67.7
220
3.7
738
38.7
Q3 24
1.7
0.4
1.9
1.7
1.8
2.2
3.3
4.1
9.05
9.10
8.11
18.5
18.4
-1.1
-5.1
-8.2
161
169
Jul-23
3.1
46.3
51.3
0.48
4.8
16.7
2.9
6.6
-1.3
-26.7
-26.3
722
748
4.0
4.0
69.9
231
3.7
773
38.6
Q4 24
2.1
0.6
3.2
1.1
3.3
2.6
3.2
3.9
8.37
8.50
7.91
18.6
18.6
-0.2
-0.9
-2.6
167
170
Aug-23
46.7
52.3
0.55
4.6
16.8
-
Notes: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey. The external debt definition was changed in March 2023 to better reflect panelists’ forecasts.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 89
September 2023
Mexico
Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product
1 | Real GDP | 2011-2027 | var. in %
3 | GDP 2023 | evolution of forecasts
2 | Real GDP | Q4 20-Q4 24 | var. in %
4 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts
5 | GDP 2023 | Panelist Distribution
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Mexico report due to space constraints. A full panelist
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics
and Geography (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, real annual variation in %.
2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts
Actinver
AGPV
Allianz
American Chamber Mexico
Barclays Capital
BBVA Bancomer
CABI
Capital Economics
Casa de Bolsa Finamex
Citibanamex
Credicorp Capital
Credit Agricole
Credit Suisse
DekaBank
DIW Berlin
Econosignal
EIU
EmergingMarketWatch
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
Grupo Financiero Banorte
Grupo Financiero BASE
HSBC
Ifo Institut
Infonavit
INVEX
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Julius Baer
Kiel Institute
MAPFRE Economics
Monex
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pantheon Macroeconomics
Prognosis
S&P Global Ratings
Scotiabank
Société Générale
Standard Chartered
Thorne & Associates
Torino Capital
UBS
Ve Por Más
Public Forecasts
CEPAL
OECD
World Bank
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2023
3.2
2.5
1.8
3.3
3.2
3.0
2.3
3.0
3.5
2.8
3.2
1.8
2.3
3.1
2.4
2.8
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.5
3.2
2.3
2.5
3.0
3.0
3.5
2.5
2.6
3.3
2.3
3.0
3.4
2.3
2.3
1.8
3.1
2.8
2.6
3.0
3.2
1.8
3.2
2.2
2.9
2.8
2.2
2.4
3.0
2024
1.6
1.8
1.5
3.0
2.0
2.4
1.6
1.3
2.1
1.4
1.9
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.9
2.4
2.0
1.4
1.7
1.8
1.4
2.0
2.7
1.7
1.8
2.0
1.9
0.9
2.7
2.1
1.3
1.8
1.0
1.4
1.5
1.5
2.2
1.0
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.6
0.9
1.8
1.5
1.9
1.4
2.9
2.6
2.5
1.8
2.1
1.9
1.8
3.5
2.8
2.7
0.9
3.0
1.8
1.8
2.4
2.2
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.7
| 90
September 2023
Mexico
Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Consumption and Investment
Individual Forecasts
American Chamber Mexico
Barclays Capital
BBVA Bancomer
CABI
Capital Economics
Casa de Bolsa Finamex
Citibanamex
Credicorp Capital
Econosignal
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
Grupo Financiero Banorte
Grupo Financiero BASE
HSBC
INVEX
JPMorgan
MAPFRE Economics
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Prognosis
S&P Global Ratings
Société Générale
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
OECD
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
6 | Consumption | variation in %
Consumption
variation in %
2023
2024
2.0
2.7
2.4
1.8
2.0
1.8
4.5
0.9
3.6
2.0
4.5
3.0
4.1
2.0
3.1
2.1
3.0
1.8
3.7
1.6
4.5
1.5
2.4
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.8
3.9
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.2
4.8
1.0
1.1
1.2
5.6
4.2
3.2
-0.3
3.4
3.0
1.5
1.4
1.9
1.0
0.8
2.5
2.0
Investment
variation in %
2023
2024
1.9
2.0
2.8
6.0
1.2
1.0
3.5
4.0
8.0
0.7
5.5
3.3
6.1
0.8
16.0
3.9
6.2
3.4
5.2
2.4
6.5
1.2
1.7
1.8
5.0
2.5
12.2
6.5
2.0
3.0
2.0
6.0
3.9
5.3
1.5
3.0
-0.2
5.8
-1.9
6.3
-0.4
5.7
3.2
1.5
0.8
1.1
3.0
2.5
2.0
2.2
5.4
3.8
0.8
5.6
3.0
3.1
-0.3
4.2
2.0
1.9
1.1
16.0
5.5
5.3
-1.9
3.9
2.0
1.9
2.8
2.4
2.1
2.0
1.9
2.1
4.2
3.4
2.9
1.7
1.7
1.7
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
8 | Investment | variation in %
9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional
de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 91
September 2023
Mexico
Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Industry and Unemployment
Individual Forecasts
American Chamber Mexico
Barclays Capital
BBVA Bancomer
Capital Economics
Casa de Bolsa Finamex
Citibanamex
Credicorp Capital
DIW Berlin
Econosignal
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
GBM Securities
Grupo Financiero Banorte
Grupo Financiero BASE
HSBC
INVEX
JPMorgan
Monex
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Prognosis
S&P Global Ratings
Scotiabank
Société Générale
Torino Capital
UBS
Ve Por Más
Public Forecasts
OECD
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
10 | Industry | variation in %
Industry
variation in %
2024
2023
2.3
1.7
2.0
2.1
1.1
1.0
1.3
2.1
2.1
1.0
3.0
3.3
2.9
2.5
2.2
1.7
2.1
3.0
2.5
1.7
2.3
1.3
2.2
2.7
2.4
1.0
-
Unemployment
% of active pop.
2024
2023
3.5
3.3
3.7
3.7
2.9
3.7
3.5
3.2
2.8
3.0
3.1
3.4
3.1
3.3
3.1
3.7
2.8
2.9
3.5
3.5
3.5
2.8
3.5
3.7
4.2
4.2
2.9
3.3
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.0
2.7
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.7
3.0
2.9
3.3
3.7
3.0
3.3
3.7
3.8
2.9
3.7
3.4
3.7
2.9
3.1
-
-
3.1
3.2
1.0
3.0
2.1
2.0
1.0
3.3
2.1
2.1
2.8
4.2
3.0
3.1
2.7
4.2
3.4
3.4
1.8
1.7
1.6
2.1
2.1
2.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.5
3.5
3.6
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts
12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional
de Estadística y Geografía). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
10 Industrial production, annual variation in %.
11 Industrial production, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 92
September 2023
Mexico
Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Fiscal Balance and Public Debt
Individual Forecasts
AGPV
American Chamber Mexico
Barclays Capital
CABI
Capital Economics
Casa de Bolsa Finamex
Citibanamex
Credicorp Capital
DekaBank
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
Grupo Financiero Banorte
Grupo Financiero BASE
HSBC
JPMorgan
MAPFRE Economics
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Prognosis
Société Générale
Torino Capital
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
Fiscal Balance
% of GDP
2023
-3.5
-3.5
-3.0
-3.5
-3.8
-3.8
-3.6
-3.5
-3.4
-3.7
-3.5
-3.8
-4.0
-4.1
-4.8
-3.8
-3.9
-4.2
-3.6
-3.9
-3.8
-3.7
-3.7
-3.5
-4.3
2024
-3.5
-3.8
-3.5
-3.8
-2.8
-3.7
-3.4
-3.6
-3.5
-3.6
-3.2
-3.5
-4.0
-3.8
-4.1
-3.9
-3.8
-4.5
-3.3
-3.9
-3.3
-3.0
-3.0
-3.8
Public Debt
% of GDP
2023
52.0
50.2
50.0
49.0
49.0
49.5
48.6
50.2
50.5
47.7
49.2
50.0
49.0
48.8
50.0
50.7
49.9
2024
53.8
50.3
50.0
51.0
50.0
49.9
49.8
50.3
50.5
49.3
49.7
49.5
50.5
49.9
50.7
-4.8
-3.0
-3.7
-3.8
-4.5
-2.8
-3.6
-3.6
47.7
52.0
49.9
49.7
49.3
53.8
50.0
50.3
-3.7
-3.7
-3.8
-3.5
-3.5
-3.5
50.0
49.8
50.0
50.5
50.3
50.6
15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
17 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Ministry of Finance. See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
14 Fiscal balance as % of GDP.
15 Fiscal balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Public debt as % of GDP.
17 Public debt, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 93
September 2023
Mexico
Monetary Sector | Inflation
Consumer Prices
Individual Forecasts
Actinver
AGPV
Allianz
American Chamber Mexico
Barclays Capital
BBVA Bancomer
CABI
Capital Economics
Casa de Bolsa Finamex
Citibanamex
Credicorp Capital
Credit Agricole
Credit Suisse
DekaBank
DIW Berlin
Econosignal
EIU
EmergingMarketWatch
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
Grupo Financiero Banorte
Grupo Financiero BASE
HSBC
Ifo Institut
Infonavit
INVEX
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Julius Baer
Kiel Institute
MAPFRE Economics
Monex
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pantheon Macroeconomics
Prognosis
S&P Global Ratings
Scotiabank
Société Générale
Standard Chartered
Thorne & Associates
Torino Capital
UBS
Ve Por Más
Public Forecasts
OECD
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
18 | Inflation | 2011-2027 | in %
Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop
2023
2024
3.8
4.5
4.5
4.0
5.3
3.5
3.5
4.6
4.7
4.3
4.3
4.0
4.7
4.1
4.1
4.7
4.4
4.0
4.5
4.0
3.3
3.7
4.0
4.6
4.8
4.5
4.0
5.0
4.7
4.0
4.5
4.1
3.5
4.6
3.9
4.4
4.7
3.7
4.5
4.8
4.2
4.5
4.3
4.0
3.7
3.4
3.7
4.5
4.7
3.6
4.7
3.6
3.6
4.6
4.6
4.0
4.5
3.8
4.1
4.7
4.7
4.0
4.1
4.3
3.4
4.8
4.0
Consumer Prices
variation in %, aop
2024
2023
5.5
4.1
4.0
5.0
6.0
5.5
5.7
4.4
3.9
5.6
5.5
4.3
5.6
4.6
4.3
5.6
5.5
4.1
5.8
3.8
5.9
4.0
3.2
5.0
5.6
3.8
5.6
4.1
5.3
3.3
5.6
4.1
5.9
4.5
5.6
4.8
3.9
5.7
5.5
4.3
5.6
3.9
4.2
5.6
4.1
5.5
5.5
4.3
4.6
5.6
5.4
3.9
4.9
3.9
3.4
5.2
4.0
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.7
4.2
4.3
5.5
3.8
5.4
6.2
4.3
5.7
4.2
4.4
5.6
4.1
5.5
5.5
3.6
5.6
4.3
5.5
5.5
3.7
5.6
4.4
-
-
5.9
3.7
3.3
5.3
4.6
4.5
3.4
4.5
4.0
3.9
4.9
6.2
5.6
5.6
3.2
5.5
4.1
4.1
4.6
4.7
5.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
5.6
5.7
5.9
4.1
4.2
4.2
19 | Inflation | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in %
20 | Inflation 2023 | evolution of fcst
21 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
| 94
September 2023
Mexico
Monetary Sector | Interest Rate
22 | Interest Rate | 2011-2027 | in %
24 | Int. Rate 2023 | evolution of fcst
23 | Interest Rate | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in %
25 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst
26 | Interest Rate 2023 | Panelist Distribution
Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Individual Forecasts
Actinver
AGPV
American Chamber Mexico
Barclays Capital
BBVA Bancomer
CABI
Capital Economics
Casa de Bolsa Finamex
Citibanamex
Credicorp Capital
Credit Agricole
DekaBank
Econosignal
EIU
Fitch Solutions
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
Grupo Financiero Banorte
Grupo Financiero BASE
HSBC
Infonavit
INVEX
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
MAPFRE Economics
Monex
Oxford Economics
Pantheon Macroeconomics
Prognosis
S&P Global Ratings
Scotiabank
Société Générale
Thorne & Associates
Torino Capital
UBS
Ve Por Más
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2023
11.00
11.00
11.25
11.25
10.75
8.00
11.00
11.25
11.00
11.25
11.00
11.25
11.00
11.00
11.00
10.75
10.75
11.25
11.25
10.75
11.25
11.25
10.75
11.25
10.00
10.75
10.50
10.25
11.25
11.25
11.00
11.25
11.00
9.00
10.25
10.75
2024
8.75
8.00
10.00
7.50
8.00
6.80
9.00
8.25
7.50
8.75
8.75
6.50
9.00
9.00
8.00
8.75
8.75
8.25
9.75
8.50
9.50
8.50
8.00
10.00
10.75
6.50
6.25
8.75
8.50
8.25
8.50
7.00
8.75
8.00
11.25
11.00
10.82
6.25
10.75
8.50
8.40
10.76
10.76
10.82
8.27
8.29
8.25
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Mexico report due to space constraints. A full panelist
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (Banxico,
Banco de México) and the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto
Nacional de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
18 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop). Source: INEGI.
19 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
20 Inflation, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
22 Interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop). Source: Banxico.
23 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
24 Interest rate, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
25 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
26 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 95
September 2023
Mexico
Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate
27 | Exchange Rate | MXN per USD
29 | MXN per USD 2023 | evol. of fcst
28 | Exchange Rate | MXN per USD
30 | MXN per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst
31 | MXN per USD 2023 | Panelist Distribution
Exchange Rate | MXN per USD
Individual Forecasts
Actinver
AGPV
American Chamber Mexico
Barclays Capital
BBVA Bancomer
CABI
Capital Economics
Casa de Bolsa Finamex
Citibanamex
Credicorp Capital
Credit Agricole
DekaBank
Econosignal
EIU
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
GBM Securities
Grupo Financiero Banorte
Grupo Financiero BASE
HSBC
Infonavit
INVEX
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Julius Baer
MAPFRE Economics
Monex
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Prognosis
S&P Global Ratings
Scotiabank
Société Générale
Standard Chartered
Torino Capital
UBS
Ve Por Más
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2023
17.8
18.0
17.1
19.0
18.0
18.4
20.0
17.7
17.5
17.5
19.5
17.3
17.9
18.2
18.3
18.5
18.0
17.9
17.1
17.0
17.6
17.5
18.0
17.4
16.9
18.6
17.8
17.1
17.4
17.5
18.5
17.9
17.4
17.4
20.5
19.0
18.4
2024
19.0
18.0
18.0
20.0
18.6
18.7
21.0
18.3
18.7
18.1
19.3
18.4
19.0
19.2
19.0
17.5
19.0
19.2
16.4
18.1
18.2
19.0
18.3
17.5
20.1
19.0
17.2
19.5
18.5
19.0
18.9
18.2
20.0
19.6
16.9
20.5
17.9
18.0
16.4
21.0
18.8
18.7
18.2
18.4
18.9
19.0
19.2
19.7
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Macrobond Financial AB.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
27 Exchange rate, MXN per USD (eop).
28 Quarterly exchange rate, MXN per USD (eop).
29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2023 forecast during the last 12 months.
30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecast during the last 12 months.
31 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 96
September 2023
Mexico
External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance
Current Account and Trade Balance
Individual Forecasts
AGPV
American Chamber Mexico
Barclays Capital
BBVA Bancomer
CABI
Capital Economics
Citibanamex
Credicorp Capital
Credit Agricole
DekaBank
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
Grupo Financiero Banorte
Grupo Financiero BASE
HSBC
Infonavit
INVEX
JPMorgan
MAPFRE Economics
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Prognosis
Société Générale
Standard Chartered
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
OECD
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
32 | Current Account | % of GDP
Current Account
% of GDP
2023
2024
1.1
1.0
-1.1
-1.0
-1.3
-1.3
-1.0
-1.5
-1.2
-1.0
-0.7
-0.5
-1.2
-1.0
-1.9
-2.1
-1.8
-1.6
-0.9
-0.8
-0.4
-0.4
-1.5
-1.5
-1.2
-1.1
-1.0
-1.1
-1.9
-1.7
-1.2
-1.2
-0.7
-1.2
-0.9
-0.3
-1.1
-1.4
-1.5
-1.6
-1.0
-1.0
-1.2
-1.5
-0.9
-1.0
-1.0
-0.7
-0.6
-1.0
-0.7
-0.6
-0.2
-0.3
-0.6
Trade Balance
USD bn
2023
-18.0
-19.0
-8.4
-21.7
-18.4
-37.0
-0.9
-23.2
-23.4
-24.7
-15.7
-12.8
-13.4
-27.2
-22.8
-21.6
-12.7
2024
-18.0
-8.2
21.8
-25.7
-18.6
-25.2
-6.0
-24.6
-25.2
-36.9
-17.2
-8.9
-1.7
-30.4
-32.3
-23.8
-11.5
-0.7
-0.6
-
-
-1.9
1.0
-1.1
-1.0
-2.1
1.1
-1.0
-0.9
-37.0
-0.9
-19.0
-18.5
-36.9
21.8
-18.6
-16.0
-1.0
-1.0
-0.9
-1.0
-1.0
-0.9
-16.9
-18.5
-17.3
-14.4
-16.7
-16.1
33 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
34 | Trade Balance | USD bn
35 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
32 Current account balance, as % of GDP.
33 Current account balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD.
35 Trade balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 97
September 2023
Mexico
External Sector | Exports and Imports
Exports and Imports
Individual Forecasts
AGPV
Barclays Capital
CABI
Citibanamex
Credicorp Capital
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
Goldman Sachs
Grupo Financiero BASE
HSBC
INVEX
JPMorgan
Oxford Economics
Prognosis
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
36 | Exports | variation in %
Exports
USD bn
2023
610
607
607
596
588
607
656
624
591
601
612
625
581
603
615
604
617
2024
640
667
650
623
600
628
716
662
588
636
645
659
607
617
636
633
664
Imports
USD bn
2023
628
626
615
618
606
644
657
648
614
618
628
637
594
630
638
626
630
2024
658
675
628
648
619
654
722
687
613
653
662
668
608
648
668
657
676
581
656
607
609
588
716
636
639
594
657
628
627
608
722
657
655
613
613
611
642
640
638
630
631
628
656
657
654
37 | Exports | evolution of fcst
38 | Imports | variation in %
39 | Imports | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
36 Exports, annual variation in %.
37 Exports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 Imports, annual variation in %.
39 Imports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 98
September 2023
Mexico
External Sector | International Reserves and External Debt
International Reserves and External Debt
Individual Forecasts
AGPV
American Chamber Mexico
Barclays Capital
Citibanamex
Credicorp Capital
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
INVEX
JPMorgan
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Prognosis
Torino Capital
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
40 | Int. Reserves | months of imports
International Reserves
USD bn
2023
2024
205
210
203
208
196
197
203
206
205
213
217
207
213
215
217
209
204
209
205
202
203
203
200
200
198
199
225
214
209
219
204
203
202
210
205
External Debt
USD bn
2023
2024
616
647
614
619
717
780
837
757
600
619
680
684
196
214
204
204
197
225
209
209
600
757
650
665
619
837
663
697
204
205
204
209
209
209
665
669
667
692
696
694
41 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
42 | External Debt | % of GDP
43 | External Debt | USD bn
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
40 International reserves, months of imports.
41 International reserves, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
42 External debt as % of GDP.
43 External debt, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 99
September 2023
Mexico
Fact Sheet
General Data
Mexico in the Region
Official name:
Capital:
Other cities:
United Mexican States
Mexico City (21.8m)
Guadalajara (5.2m)
Monterrey (4.8m)
1,964,375
129
65.7
1.0
76.7
4.6
Spanish and Indigenous
Metric system
GMT-6 to GMT-8
Area (km2):
Population (million, 2019 est.):
Population density (per km2, 2019):
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.):
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.):
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018):
Language:
Measures:
Time:
Economic Infrastructure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants):
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.):
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants):
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants):
Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu):
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu):
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h):
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h):
Oil Supply (thousand bpd):
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd):
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons):
Transportation (2018)
Airports:
Railways (km):
Roadways (km):
Waterways (km):
Chief Ports:
Population | %-share in Latin America
GDP | %-share in Latin America
Economic Structure
17.2
95.2
65.8
14.5
GDP by Sector | share in %
GDP by Expenditure | share in %
6,673
7,931
305
261
2,260
2,020
493
1,714
20,825
398,148
2,900
Manzanillo, Lázaro Cárdenas
Trade Structure
Primary markets | share in %
Political Data
A. M. López Obrador
1 July 2018
2024
Victoria Rodríguez Ceja
President:
Last elections:
Next elections:
Central Bank Governor:
Exports
Imports
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
Agency
Moody's:
S&P Global Ratings:
Fitch Ratings:
Strengths
Rating
Baa2
BBB
BBB-
Outlook
Stable
Stable
Stable
Primary products | share in %
Weaknesses
• Commitment to sound fiscal
• Drug-related violence
policy
• Uncertain business environment
• Large domestic market
• Tariff-free access to U.S. market
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
Exports
Imports
| 100
Peru
•
GDP contracted in year-on-year terms in Q2 at a slightly sharper pace
than in Q1. Destocking weighed on private investment, as companies
lightened their warehouses following two quarters of stock accumulation.
Additionally, adverse weather conditions and social unrest took a toll
on activity. Available data suggests that GDP should return to growth
in the current quarter. In July, the unemployment rate fell, wage growth
outpaced inflation—which declined in July and August—and business
sentiment improved, boding well for activity. Meanwhile, in late August,
mining company Minsur announced an investment of at least USD 2
billion in the country over five years to scale up copper and tin production.
In politics, in early September, President Boluarte reshuffled the cabinet
for the second time in six months amid continued political instability.
•
The pace of GDP expansion will decelerate notably this year from 2022.
Sticky inflation and tighter financing conditions will constrain domestic
activity. Additionally, the external sector will suffer from the effects
of global headwinds. El Niño-associated weather events and the reemergence of social unrest amid political uncertainty pose downside
risks. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.3% in 2023,
which is down by 0.2 percentage points from one month ago, and
expanding 2.6% in 2024.
•
Inflation came in at 5.6% in August, down from July’s 5.9%. Inflation will
continue its downtrend ahead this year, curbed by previous monetary
policy hikes and improved supply conditions. Upside risks stem from an
expansionary fiscal stance and the threat posed to agricultural output by
El Niño. FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 6.5% on
average in 2023, which is down by 0.1 percentage points from one month
ago, and rising 3.4% on average in 2024.
•
At its 10 August meeting, the Central Bank of Peru kept its key policy
interest rate at 7.75%—where it has been since January. The decision
was driven by declining headline inflation, core inflation and inflation
expectations. Our panel expects the Bank to cut rates later this year
as inflation gradually moderates. FocusEconomics panelists see the
monetary policy rate ending 2023 at 6.74% and ending 2024 at 4.65%.
•
The sol traded at PEN 3.71 per USD on 7 September, depreciating 0.5%
month on month. The currency should lose some ground from current
levels by the end of this year amid protracted domestic political and social
instability and a narrowing interest rate differential with the U.S. Volatile
copper prices are a key factor to watch. FocusEconomics panelists see
the sol ending 2023 at PEN 3.73 per USD and ending 2024 at PEN 3.74
per USD.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
2019-21
33.5
221
6,609
1.5
-4.3
32.4
8.1
-0.6
41.2
2022-24
34.5
266
7,699
2.2
-2.2
33.7
4.5
-2.4
40.6
2025-27
35.6
316
8,888
3.0
-1.8
34.5
2.9
-1.3
-
Massimo Bassetti
Senior Economist
Economic Growth
Change in GDP forecasts
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024
2020 - Q4 2024.
forecasts during the last 12 months.
Inflation
Peru
Outlook moderates
Peru
Population (million):
GDP (USD bn):
GDP per capita (USD):
GDP growth (%):
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP):
Public Debt (% of GDP):
Inflation (%):
Current Account (% of GDP):
External Debt (% of GDP):
September 2023
Change in inflation forecasts
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2023 and 2024
average variation in %, Q4 2020 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2024.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 101
Peru
Gross Domestic Product | variation in %
September 2023
REAL SECTOR | Economy records sharpest contraction since Q4 2020
in Q2
GDP contracted at a sharper pace of 0.5% year on year in the second quarter,
below the 0.4% contraction tallied in the first quarter. Q2’s reading marked the
worst reading since Q4 2020. On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter
basis, GDP declined at a more moderate pace of 0.2% in Q2, compared to the
previous period’s 0.6% fall.
Household spending increased 0.4% year on year in the second quarter,
which was above the first quarter’s 0.2% expansion. Government spending
rebounded, growing 2.7% in Q2 (Q1: -5.9% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment
contracted at a more moderate rate of 6.3% in Q2, from the 10.7% contraction
recorded in the prior quarter.
Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-onyear variation %.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
Exports of goods and services growth picked up to 7.7% in Q2 (Q1: +2.4%
yoy). In addition, imports of goods and services declined at a milder rate of
3.0% in Q2 (Q1: -3.2% yoy).
Commenting on the outlook, Julio Ruiz, analyst at Itaú Unibanco, stated:
“Our 2023 GDP growth forecast stands at a below potential growth rate of
+0.8%. The El Niño phenomenon will likely curb activity for the rest of the year
in the context of a tight monetary policy stance.”
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.3% in 2023, which is down
by 0.2 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 2.6% in 2024.
Economic Activity | annual variation in %
REAL SECTOR | Economic activity decreases at a softer pace in June
Economic activity fell 0.6% compared to the same month a year earlier in
June, which was a smaller contraction than May’s 1.3% decrease. Looking
at the details, the commerce and energy sectors slowed in June, while the
agricultural, construction and manufacturing sectors contracted at softer
paces.
On a monthly basis, economic activity rose 1.3% in June (May: -1.6% mom),
the best result since May 2021. Meanwhile, annual average economic activity
growth fell to 0.7% in June.
Note: Year-on-year changes of economic activity in %.
Source: Peru National Statistics Institute (INEI).
Inflation | Consumer Price Index
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation falls in August
Inflation came in at 5.6% in August, which was down from July’s 5.9% and
marked the lowest reading since September 2021. That said, the print
remained above the Central Bank’s 1.0-3.0% target range for the 26th
consecutive month.
Annual average inflation dipped to 7.7% in August from 8.0% in July. Lastly,
consumer prices increased 0.38% over the previous month in August, following
the 0.39% increase logged in July.
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 6.5% on average in
2023, which is down by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and rising
3.4% on average in 2024.
MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank keeps rates unchanged in August
At its 10 August meeting, the Central Bank of Peru (BCRA) kept its key policy
interest rate unchanged at 7.75%, where it has been since January.
Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of consumer price index in %.
Source: INEI.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
The decision not to hike further was driven by declining headline inflation,
core inflation and market inflation expectations, and by the Bank’s view that
price pressures would continue to trend down going forward. That said, with
| 102
Peru
Monetary Policy Rate | in %
September 2023
inflation still well above the Bank’s target range of 1.0–3.0%, it was premature
to begin monetary easing.
The Bank did not give explicit forward guidance in its press release, though
most of our panelists see rate cuts ensuing by year-end. The discrepancy
among analysts is wide, with a 175 basis point spread among end-2023
forecasts.
Goldman Sachs analysts, who are among the more dovish of our panelists,
said:
Note: Central Bank Reference Rate in %.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP).
“In an important innovation, the MPC dropped the hawkish statement from
previous communiques that ‘[the decision to hold] does not necessarily imply
the end of the [tightening] cycle,’ which we interpret as an implicit signal that
the MPC is setting the stage to start the normalization of the policy stance,
potentially as early as September (our baseline scenario).”
FocusEconomics panelists see the monetary policy rate ending 2023 at 6.74%
and ending 2024 at 4.65%.
Merchandise Trade
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Merchandise exports drop in June
Merchandise exports decreased 6.0% annually in June, contrasting May’s
1.3% rise. Meanwhile, merchandise imports plummeted 18.3% in annual
terms in June (May: -6.7% yoy).
As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous
month, recording a USD 1.4 billion surplus in June (May 2023: USD 0.9 billion
surplus; June 2022: USD 1.0 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend pointed up, with
the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 12.8 billion
surplus in June, compared to the USD 12.4 billion surplus in May.
Note: Trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of exports and imports
in %.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP).
FocusEconomics panelists see merchandise exports rising 1.1% in 2023,
which is down by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 3.1%
in 2024.
Our panelists see merchandise imports falling 4.3% in 2023, which is down by
1.4 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 4.4% in 2024.
Our panelists see a trade surplus of USD 13.4 billion in 2023 and a trade
surplus of USD 13.2 billion in 2024.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 103
September 2023
Peru
Economic Indicators | 2018 - 2027
Annual Data
Real Sector
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (PEN bn)
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %)
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %)
Total Consumption (ann. var. %)
Private Consumption (ann. var. %)
Government Consumption (ann. var. %)
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %)
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %)
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %)
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %)
Commerce (ann. var. %)
Unemployment (% of active population, aop)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop)
Inflation (WPI, ann. var. %, eop)
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop)
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, aop)
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (USD bn)
Merchandise Imports (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %)
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %)
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn)
International Reserves (USD bn)
International Reserves (months of imports)
External Debt (USD bn)
External Debt (% of GDP)
Quarterly Data
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %)
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %)
Private Consumption (ann. var. %)
Government Consumption (ann. var. %)
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %)
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %)
Commerce (ann. var. %)
Unemployment (% of active population, aop)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop)
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, aop)
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (USD bn)
Merchandise Imports (USD bn)
Monthly Data
Economic Activity (IMAE, ann. var. %)
Unemployment (% of active population)
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %)
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop)
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %)
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
32.2
7,054
227
746
6.0
4.0
4.1
3.3
3.8
0.4
4.4
2.1
2.4
5.9
2.5
6.7
-2.3
25.6
33.2
7,008
232
776
4.0
2.2
2.2
3.1
3.2
2.2
3.3
1.1
1.0
-1.7
2.5
6.6
-1.6
26.6
33.5
6,152
206
720
-7.1
-11.0
-9.8
-7.3
-9.9
7.5
-16.2
-19.7
-15.8
-12.6
-13.3
12.8
-8.9
34.6
33.8
6,669
226
876
21.7
13.3
14.5
12.1
12.4
10.9
34.6
13.2
18.0
18.7
17.2
11.3
-2.5
35.9
34.2
7,157
245
938
7.0
2.7
2.3
2.5
3.6
-3.4
1.0
6.1
4.4
0.9
3.3
7.7
-1.7
33.8
34.5
7,768
268
994
6.0
1.3
0.1
1.6
1.6
0.7
-4.2
2.6
-0.8
-1.0
2.3
7.3
-2.4
33.6
34.9
8,172
285
1,052
5.8
2.6
2.6
2.3
2.4
1.8
1.9
3.7
2.8
2.4
2.2
7.1
-2.3
33.8
35.2
8,473
298
1,114
6.0
2.7
2.6
2.4
2.7
2.0
2.7
3.4
3.5
2.1
2.4
6.9
-2.1
34.0
35.6
8,865
315
1,179
5.8
3.0
3.1
3.1
2.1
2.9
3.3
3.5
2.2
6.7
-1.8
34.7
35.9
9,325
335
1,251
6.0
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.0
2.9
2.2
1.8
2.4
6.5
-1.7
35.0
8.9
2.2
1.3
2.6
3.2
2.75
3.38
3.29
9.1
1.9
2.1
2.2
-0.1
2.25
3.31
3.34
37.7
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
0.25
3.62
3.50
-4.0
6.4
4.0
3.8
13.6
2.50
3.99
3.88
-32.9
8.5
7.9
6.5
7.0
7.50
3.81
3.84
4.4
6.5
6.74
3.73
3.71
3.0
3.4
4.65
3.74
3.69
2.6
2.7
4.02
3.74
3.74
2.5
2.5
3.92
3.75
3.74
2.6
2.5
3.96
3.72
3.73
-0.6
-1.2
-2.6
-1.3
7.2
6.9
49.1
48.0
41.9
41.1
8.0
-2.2
8.1
-1.8
6.8
6.2
60.3
68.4
17.3
20.0
78.7
80.9
34.7
34.8
Q3 22 Q4 22
1.7
2.0
0.7
-0.2
2.6
1.9
2.9
2.3
-5.9
-11.2
1.6
1.6
1.1
-2.4
2.7
2.9
7.3
7.3
8.5
8.5
8.6
8.4
6.75
7.50
3.98
3.81
3.89
3.90
-4.7
-1.9
-2.9
-1.2
1.6
3.0
16.5
16.6
14.9
13.6
Nov-22 Dec-22
2.1
1.0
7.6
7.1
0.52
0.79
8.4
8.5
3.85
3.81
-18.7
-4.9
1.1
2.2
8.1
42.8
34.7
-10.7
-15.5
-0.4
74.9
25.9
89.7
43.5
Q1 23
-0.4
-0.6
-1.8
0.2
-5.9
-10.7
-0.4
2.2
7.6
8.4
8.6
7.75
3.76
3.82
-2.0
-1.2
4.2
16.1
11.9
Jan-23
-0.9
8.0
0.23
8.7
3.85
-10.8
-4.1
-2.2
-5.1
-9.9
15.0
10.3
63.0
66.2
48.0
55.9
47.0
5.2
38.2
16.5
5.8
11.7
78.5
72.2
19.6
15.5
102.0 102.3
45.2
41.8
Q2 23 Q3 23
1.6
-0.5
-0.2
1.6
-3.0
0.5
0.4
2.2
2.7
2.5
-6.3
-4.4
-11.7
-3.6
3.1
6.8
7.2
6.5
5.1
7.4
5.4
7.75
7.45
3.62
3.66
3.70
3.64
0.7
-1.6
0.4
-1.1
4.2
2.9
16.3
16.9
12.1
14.0
Feb-23 Mar-23
-0.6
0.3
7.3
7.5
0.29
1.25
8.6
8.4
3.81
3.76
-12.4
9.2
-1.3
-1.4
-1.7
-4.7
-4.0
-3.9
13.4
13.2
13.6
66.9
69.0
73.1
53.5
55.9
59.5
1.1
3.1
5.9
-4.3
4.4
6.5
74.7
76.0
80.1
16.7
16.3
16.2
108.5
112.4
40.5
39.5
Q4 23
Q1 24 Q2 24
3.1
3.4
2.9
1.0
0.2
0.5
2.0
1.7
3.0
3.7
2.9
1.9
3.4
0.7
0.9
1.1
5.5
2.3
-2.2
-3.8
7.6
7.0
7.5
6.9
4.2
4.0
3.5
4.5
3.7
2.9
6.61
5.95
5.27
3.69
3.69
3.68
3.68
3.69
3.69
-1.2
-1.7
-1.0
-0.9
-1.2
-0.7
3.5
3.7
2.8
17.7
16.7
16.3
14.2
13.0
13.5
Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23
0.4
-1.3
-0.6
7.1
6.8
6.6
0.56
0.32
-0.15
8.0
7.9
6.5
3.71
3.68
3.62
4.1
1.3
-6.0
-1.6
-1.1
-3.5
-5.2
14.3
13.5
76.5
79.8
62.2
66.3
4.7
4.3
4.7
6.5
86.8
95.8
16.7
17.3
Q3 24
Q4 24
2.3
2.4
0.6
0.6
1.7
1.6
2.3
2.5
2.0
2.1
2.0
1.9
2.8
6.3
6.8
6.7
3.3
3.0
2.9
2.8
4.84
4.53
3.69
3.72
3.69
3.71
-1.1
-0.4
-0.8
-0.3
3.0
3.8
17.5
18.4
14.5
14.6
Jul-23 Aug-23
6.3
0.39
0.38
5.9
5.6
3.60
3.70
-
Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 104
September 2023
Peru
Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product
1 | Real GDP | 2011-2027 | var. in %
3 | GDP 2023 | evolution of forecasts
2 | Real GDP | Q4 20-Q4 24 | var. in %.
4 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts
5 | GDP 2023 | Panelist Distribution
Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts
AGPV
Allianz
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
BBVA Banco Continental
BCP/Credicorp Capital
CABI
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Corficolombiana
DekaBank
EIU
EmergingMarketWatch
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IEDEP - CCL
IPE
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Julius Baer
Kiel Institute
Macroconsult
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pantheon Macroeconomics
Pezco Economics
Rabobank
Rimac Seguros
S&P Global Ratings
Scope Ratings
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
Thorne & Associates
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
CEPAL
OECD
World Bank
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2023
1.5
1.9
1.5
0.5
1.6
1.3
1.8
1.5
2.2
1.7
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.5
0.2
1.7
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.7
1.3
0.9
0.6
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.7
1.6
1.2
1.8
-0.2
0.5
1.3
0.8
1.6
1.5
2024
3.0
2.5
2.7
1.8
2.6
2.2
2.5
2.3
3.2
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.8
1.8
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.3
3.8
3.3
3.2
2.2
2.7
3.2
3.2
3.2
2.1
2.8
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.3
2.1
2.4
2.5
1.2
1.3
1.7
2.2
2.0
2.5
2.9
2.6
-0.2
2.2
1.3
1.3
1.8
3.8
2.5
2.6
1.5
1.8
1.9
2.6
2.6
2.7
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
General:
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco
Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1
2
3
4
5
GDP, annual variation in %.
Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
GDP, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
GDP, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 105
September 2023
Peru
Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Consumption and Investment
Individual Forecasts
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
BBVA Banco Continental
BCP/Credicorp Capital
CABI
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IEDEP - CCL
IPE
Macroconsult
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Rabobank
Rimac Seguros
S&P Global Ratings
Scotiabank
Thorne & Associates
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
OECD
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
6 | Consumption | variation in %
Consumption
variation in %
2023
2024
3.2
2.1
1.8
0.8
2.7
1.9
1.6
2.2
1.1
2.3
2.1
2.7
1.8
2.5
2.8
1.9
1.5
2.3
1.6
2.2
0.9
3.5
0.9
1.6
1.5
2.9
1.3
2.4
1.7
2.4
3.2
2.9
0.6
2.3
1.9
2.4
1.6
2.4
2.0
2.5
0.4
1.9
1.0
2.1
1.5
2.5
3.3
1.3
2.5
Investment
variation in %
2023
2024
3.2
-5.1
-2.8
-9.6
-2.5
2.4
-4.6
1.2
0.0
1.0
-6.5
1.6
-0.7
2.6
-3.6
1.4
0.4
1.1
-3.5
4.2
-3.9
2.0
-5.8
0.7
-7.7
0.2
-6.0
8.6
-5.3
0.3
-1.2
2.2
-5.5
1.9
-3.8
0.9
-3.6
2.3
-4.5
2.9
-5.1
-2.8
2.4
0.7
1.3
1.7
2.7
-3.8
-4.9
1.8
2.0
0.4
3.3
1.5
1.6
1.6
3.5
2.4
2.4
-9.6
0.4
-4.2
-4.2
-2.8
8.6
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.7
1.8
2.4
2.4
2.5
-4.2
-3.7
-3.4
1.6
1.6
1.6
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
8 | Investment | variation in %
9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
6
7
8
9
Private consumption, annual variation in %.
Private consumption, change in 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
Gross fixed investment, change in 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 106
September 2023
Peru
Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Manufacturing and Unemployment
Individual Forecasts
BancTrust & Co.
BBVA Banco Continental
BCP/Credicorp Capital
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
FrontierView
HSBC
IEDEP - CCL
Oxford Economics
Rabobank
Rimac Seguros
Scope Ratings
Scotiabank
Thorne & Associates
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
10 | Manufacturing | variation in %
Manufacturing
variation in %
2024
2023
-5.9
4.4
0.5
2.3
0.5
1.5
-1.4
2.3
2.7
3.0
0.9
2.0
1.0
1.2
-4.6
3.2
-3.3
2.7
0.5
2.0
Unemployment
% of active pop.
2024
2023
7.5
7.3
7.5
7.2
7.4
6.8
6.9
6.7
6.7
6.3
7.6
7.4
7.5
7.0
7.6
7.6
7.4
7.2
7.3
7.0
7.1
6.9
6.9
7.2
7.0
6.8
7.5
7.0
-2.0
2.2
8.2
8.0
-5.9
2.7
0.5
-1.0
1.2
4.4
2.3
2.4
6.7
8.2
7.4
7.3
6.3
8.0
7.0
7.1
0.0
0.3
1.0
2.1
1.8
1.9
7.3
7.5
7.5
7.1
7.2
7.2
11 | Manufacturing | evol. of forecasts
12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INEI, Instituto Nacional de Estadística e
Informática del Perú) and the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). See below for details.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
10 Manufacturing, annual variation in %. Source: INEI.
11 Manufacturing, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment in metropolitan Lima and Callao, % of active population. Source: BCRP.
13 Unemployment, change in 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 107
September 2023
Peru
Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Fiscal Balance and Public Debt
Individual Forecasts
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
BBVA Banco Continental
BCP/Credicorp Capital
CABI
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
DekaBank
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IEDEP - CCL
IPE
JPMorgan
Macroconsult
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Rabobank
Rimac Seguros
Scope Ratings
Scotiabank
Thorne & Associates
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
Fiscal Balance
% of GDP
2023
-2.4
-3.0
-2.4
-2.4
-2.3
-2.3
-1.9
-2.0
-2.0
-2.3
-2.4
-2.4
-2.4
-2.3
-2.2
-2.7
-2.5
-3.0
-4.0
-2.3
-2.0
-2.1
-2.0
-3.5
-2.5
-3.0
-1.4
-2.4
2024
-2.0
-3.0
-2.2
-2.0
-2.3
-2.3
-1.6
-2.0
-2.0
-2.2
-2.0
-2.2
-3.5
-2.0
-2.4
-2.4
-2.5
-3.2
-3.4
-2.0
-1.9
-2.0
-1.6
-3.5
-2.3
-2.5
-2.2
Public Debt
% of GDP
2023
32.3
33.6
33.7
33.6
35.0
33.5
32.7
34.9
33.4
32.1
35.1
35.1
31.2
32.8
33.5
33.6
33.9
34.0
33.0
34.6
2024
32.1
35.0
34.3
33.4
34.0
33.5
32.6
35.0
33.2
31.2
35.9
35.3
31.2
32.9
35.3
33.8
35.7
33.9
34.3
-2.4
-2.2
-
-
-4.0
-1.4
-2.4
-2.4
-3.5
-1.6
-2.2
-2.3
31.2
35.1
33.6
33.6
31.2
35.9
33.9
33.8
-2.3
-2.2
-2.1
-2.3
-2.1
-2.1
33.4
33.4
33.5
33.6
33.4
33.5
15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
17 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). See below
for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
14
15
16
17
Fiscal balance as % of GDP.
Fiscal balance, change in 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
Public debt as % of GDP.
Public debt, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 108
September 2023
Peru
Monetary Sector | Inflation
Consumer Prices
Individual Forecasts
Allianz
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
BBVA Banco Continental
BCP/Credicorp Capital
CABI
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Corficolombiana
DekaBank
EIU
EmergingMarketWatch
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IEDEP - CCL
IPE
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Julius Baer
Kiel Institute
Macroconsult
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pantheon Macroeconomics
Pezco Economics
Rabobank
Rimac Seguros
S&P Global Ratings
Scope Ratings
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
Thorne & Associates
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
OECD
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
18 | Inflation | 2011 - 2027 | in %
Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop
2024
2023
3.7
2.5
3.0
4.6
3.8
2.5
4.8
3.0
5.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
3.2
2.2
4.4
3.0
4.2
3.1
4.2
3.1
4.3
3.1
4.6
2.5
4.0
3.0
3.9
2.9
4.0
2.9
3.8
2.8
4.2
3.5
6.1
2.8
4.5
3.1
4.2
2.5
4.5
2.0
4.0
2.9
6.4
4.9
4.0
3.1
4.5
3.5
4.3
2.5
5.0
3.5
4.1
2.8
4.5
4.5
2.7
Consumer Prices
variation in %, aop
2024
2023
4.2
6.5
6.4
2.5
6.6
3.7
6.4
3.1
6.9
3.7
6.5
4.0
6.2
2.3
6.6
6.5
3.6
6.5
3.6
6.5
3.3
6.7
4.3
6.6
3.4
6.6
3.9
6.6
3.2
6.5
3.1
6.5
3.2
5.9
2.8
6.6
3.7
6.5
2.9
6.5
2.4
6.1
3.0
6.2
2.6
7.5
5.7
6.5
3.1
6.6
2.9
6.6
3.6
6.7
4.4
6.5
2.7
6.5
3.0
6.6
6.7
3.3
4.3
-
2.9
-
6.5
6.9
3.1
3.4
3.2
6.4
4.3
4.4
2.0
4.9
3.0
3.0
5.9
7.5
6.5
6.5
2.3
5.7
3.3
3.4
4.3
4.3
4.4
3.0
3.0
3.0
6.6
6.5
6.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
19 | Inflation | Q4 20 - Q4 24 | in %
20 | Inflation 2023 | evolution of fcst
21 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
18
19
20
21
Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
Inflation, evolution of 2023 inflation forecasts during the last 12 months.
Inflation, evolution of 2024 inflation forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 109
September 2023
Peru
Monetary Sector | Interest Rate
22 | Interest Rate | 2011 - 2027 | in %
24 | Int. Rate 2023 | evolution of fcst
23 | Interest Rate | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in %
25 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst
26 | Interest Rate 2023 | Panelist Distribution
Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Individual Forecasts
AGPV
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
BBVA Banco Continental
BCP/Credicorp Capital
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Corficolombiana
EIU
Fitch Solutions
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IEDEP - CCL
IPE
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Macroconsult
Oxford Economics
Pantheon Macroeconomics
Rabobank
Rimac Seguros
S&P Global Ratings
Scope Ratings
Scotiabank
Thorne & Associates
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2023
6.50
6.25
7.75
6.75
6.75
6.75
6.50
6.25
7.00
6.75
6.50
7.00
6.00
6.00
6.75
6.25
6.00
7.00
6.50
6.75
7.00
7.75
7.75
7.00
7.00
6.75
2024
5.00
4.00
6.50
4.00
4.50
4.75
4.50
5.50
4.50
5.00
4.00
3.50
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.50
5.50
5.00
6.25
5.00
5.00
4.75
6.75
4.50
6.00
7.75
6.75
6.74
3.50
6.50
4.50
4.65
6.73
6.70
6.68
4.77
4.76
4.72
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data
are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
22
23
24
25
26
Interest rate, Central Bank Reference Rate in % (eop).
Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank Reference Rate in % (eop).
Interest rate, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 110
September 2023
Peru
Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate
27 | Exchange Rate | PEN per USD
29 | PEN per USD 2023 | evol. of fcst
28 | Exchange Rate | PEN per USD
30 | PEN per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst
31 | PEN per USD 2023 | Panelist Distribution
Exchange Rate | PEN per USD
Individual Forecasts
AGPV
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
BBVA Banco Continental
BCP/Credicorp Capital
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
EIU
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
HSBC
IEDEP - CCL
IPE
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Macroconsult
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Rabobank
Rimac Seguros
S&P Global Ratings
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
Thorne & Associates
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2023
3.80
3.70
3.65
3.77
3.75
4.00
3.67
3.74
3.90
3.80
3.50
3.82
3.70
3.70
3.65
3.70
3.68
3.61
3.39
3.70
3.80
3.75
3.78
3.55
3.71
4.10
3.75
2024
3.80
3.80
3.75
3.88
3.70
3.70
3.65
3.65
3.90
3.65
3.91
3.74
3.80
3.60
3.68
3.59
3.64
3.80
3.80
3.85
3.75
3.45
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.80
3.39
4.10
3.73
3.73
3.45
3.91
3.75
3.74
3.74
3.77
3.81
3.74
3.76
3.78
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are
from Macrobond Financial AB. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
27
28
29
30
31
Exchange rate, PEN per USD (eop).
Quarterly exchange rate, PEN per USD (eop).
Exchange rate, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 111
September 2023
Peru
External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance
Current Account and Trade Balance
Individual Forecasts
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
BBVA Banco Continental
BCP/Credicorp Capital
CABI
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
DekaBank
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IEDEP - CCL
JPMorgan
Macroconsult
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Rabobank
Rimac Seguros
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
Thorne & Associates
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
OECD
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
32 | Current Account | % of GDP
Current Account
% of GDP
2024
2023
-1.6
-1.5
-1.4
-1.2
-1.7
-2.4
-2.0
-1.5
0.3
-0.8
-2.4
-1.5
-1.3
-1.2
-1.3
-1.2
-0.4
-0.9
-3.1
-3.1
-2.1
-2.3
-0.5
-0.4
-2.3
-0.6
-2.3
-1.7
-2.9
-2.0
-2.4
-1.0
-0.3
0.4
-2.0
-1.6
-2.8
-1.9
-2.0
-1.5
-2.0
-1.3
-1.5
-1.7
-2.3
-2.4
-1.8
-1.4
-1.4
-2.0
-1.5
Trade Balance
USD bn
2023
15.5
13.6
9.4
13.5
9.6
6.1
15.0
19.3
11.3
13.4
19.0
12.3
17.9
15.2
12.9
10.4
12.1
15.0
12.4
16.3
12.4
2024
14.8
10.1
14.4
11.2
6.8
16.3
13.5
11.0
13.0
19.5
17.0
12.8
14.5
11.5
10.8
11.9
14.7
12.8
12.3
-1.9
-1.1
-1.4
-1.1
14.3
-
15.7
-
-3.1
0.3
-2.0
-1.7
-3.1
0.4
-1.5
-1.4
6.1
19.3
13.4
13.4
6.8
18.4
12.9
13.2
-2.0
-2.2
-2.4
-1.5
-1.6
-1.7
12.7
12.2
11.3
13.0
12.4
12.0
33 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
34 | Trade Balance | USD bn
35 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
32 Current account balance as % of GDP.
33 Current account balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD.
35 Trade balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 112
September 2023
Peru
External Sector | Exports and Imports
Exports and Imports
Individual Forecasts
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
BBVA Banco Continental
BCP/Credicorp Capital
CABI
Citigroup Global Mkts
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IEDEP - CCL
Macroconsult
Oxford Economics
Pezco Economics
Rabobank
Scotiabank
Thorne & Associates
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
CAF
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
36 | Exports | variation in %
Exports
USD bn
2023
66.9
66.3
63.4
65.6
66.9
60.3
69.5
72.4
69.4
71.5
68.6
64.3
69.1
66.4
59.4
67.5
68.1
66.3
64.4
72.3
67.9
2024
70.1
65.9
66.8
69.6
61.3
74.0
76.1
71.5
76.4
71.7
67.0
70.5
66.3
61.6
69.5
69.0
65.9
68.4
70.3
Imports
USD bn
2023
51.4
52.7
54.0
52.1
57.3
54.2
54.5
53.2
58.1
58.1
51.3
51.9
51.2
51.2
46.5
57.1
56.0
51.2
52.0
56.0
55.5
2024
55.3
55.8
52.4
58.3
54.6
57.7
62.5
60.5
63.4
53.3
50.0
57.7
51.7
50.1
58.7
57.2
51.2
55.6
57.9
66.1
68.8
51.8
53.2
59.4
72.4
66.9
66.9
61.3
76.4
69.3
69.0
46.5
58.1
52.9
53.5
50.0
63.4
55.7
55.9
67.0
66.8
66.8
69.0
68.6
68.7
54.3
54.6
55.5
56.1
56.3
56.7
37 | Exports | evolution of fcst
38 | Imports | variation in %
39 | Imports | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
36 Exports, annual variation in %.
37 Exports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 Imports, annual variation in %.
39 Imports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 113
September 2023
Peru
External Sector | Additional forecasts
International Reserves and External Debt
Individual Forecasts
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
BCP/Credicorp Capital
Citigroup Global Mkts
EIU
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
Goldman Sachs
IEDEP - CCL
JPMorgan
Oxford Economics
Rabobank
Scotiabank
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
40 | Int. Reserves | months of imports
International Reserves
USD bn
2023
2024
74.7
75.0
78.2
75.4
74.0
74.0
74.7
76.1
75.8
81.4
77.0
79.2
74.1
74.6
75.8
79.6
72.0
72.4
75.1
76.2
71.5
71.5
76.9
82.7
73.0
73.9
73.5
74.0
74.2
74.2
External Debt
USD bn
2023
2024
107
112
106
107
112
118
71.5
78.2
74.7
74.7
71.5
82.7
75.0
76.0
106
112
107
109
107
118
112
112
74.4
74.3
73.6
75.6
75.2
74.1
108
110
110
112
115
115
41 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
42 | External Debt | % of GDP
43 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
40 International reserves, months of imports.
41 International reserves, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
42 External debt as % of GDP.
43 External debt, in USD billion.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 114
September 2023
Peru
Fact Sheet
General Data
Peru in the Region
Official name:
Capital:
Other cities:
Area (km2):
Population (million, 2019 est.):
Population density (per km2, 2019):
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.):
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.):
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018):
Language:
Measures:
Time:
Republic of Peru
Lima (10.4m)
Arequipa (0.9m)
Trujillo (0.8m)
1,285,216
33.8
26.3
0.9
74.7
5.6
Spanish, Quechua and
Aymara
Metric system
GMT-5
Economic Infrastructure
GDP | %-share in Latin America
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants):
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.):
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants):
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants):
9.6
121
52.5
7.2
Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu):
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu):
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h):
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h):
Oil Supply (thousand bpd):
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd):
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons):
Transportation (2018)
Airports:
Railways (km):
Roadways (km):
Waterways (km):
Chief Ports:
Population | %-share in Latin America
GDP by Sector | share in %
GDP by Expenditure | share in %
1,100
1,118
51.3
45.8
143
255
52.7
191
1,854
140,672
8,808
Callao, Paita, Matarani
Trade Structure
Primary markets | share in %
Political Data
President:
Last presidential elections:
Next elections:
Central Bank President:
Dina Boluarte
6 June 2021
2024
Julio Velarde Flores
Imports
Exports
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
Rating
Baa1
BBB
BBB
Agency
Moody's:
S&P Global Ratings:
Fitch Ratings:
Strengths
Outlook
Negative
Negative
Negative
Primary products | share in %
Weaknesses
• Mining, energy and fish
resources
• Low public debt
• Strong growth potential
• Large informal economy
• Inadequate infrastructure
• High dependence on commodity
prices
.
.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
Exports
Imports
| 115
Venezuela
September 2023
Venezuela
Outlook deteriorates
Venezuela
•
GDP should have increased at one of the region’s fastest annual rates in
2022 on the heels of an extremely low base effect. However, the economy
has seemingly lost steam so far in 2023. Oil output expanded feebly in
annual terms in January−July, following an average growth rate of more
than 20% last year. Moreover, the price of the country’s oil has averaged
lower this year to date than last year. In addition, inflation surged in the
first seven months of 2023. More positively, the U.S. government is
reportedly considering easing sanctions on the country’s oil sector if the
regime allows free and fair presidential elections. That said, the National
Assembly’s decision in late August to name a Maduro loyalist to head the
electoral authority appears to point in the opposite direction.
•
The pace of economic growth will cool this year from 2022. Lower oil
prices, slackening oil production growth, global headwinds, U.S. sanctions
and higher inflation will weigh on activity. An easing of U.S. sanctions is
the key upside risk, although this appears increasingly unlikely due to
President Maduro’s continued reluctance to hold free and fair elections.
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.0% in 2023, which is
down by 0.8 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 3.5%
in 2024.
•
Inflation fell to 398% in July from 404% in June. Inflation has surged so
far this year amid a plunging currency. Price pressures are set to average
higher in 2023 than in 2022, stoked by substantial monetary financing
of the fiscal deficit and a falling bolívar in both the official and parallel
markets. A faster-than-expected depreciation of the bolívar is the key
upside risk. FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising
346.2% on average in 2023, which is up by 54.9 percentage points from
one month ago, and rising 149.3% on average in 2024.
•
The Central Bank aims to control monetary aggregates and manage
currency liquidity via changes in indirect instruments. However,
money supply growth has been extremely elevated in recent years,
partly because of monetary financing of the fiscal deficit. Money
supply growth is seen remaining in triple figures going forward, which
will frustrate efforts to tame inflation.FocusEconomics panelists
see the money supply rising 281% in 2023, which is down by 61.0
percentage points from one month ago, and rising 197% in 2024.
•
The bolívar traded at VED 32.47 per USD on 7 September, depreciating
7.4% month on month. The parallel market rate traded at VED 34.87
per USD on 7 September, depreciating 5.0% month on month. The
bolívar should depreciate further by year-end due to continued monetary
financing of the fiscal deficit and a lack of confidence in the currency.
FocusEconomics panelists see the bolívar ending 2023 at VED 49.50 per
USD and ending 2024 at VED 129.02 per USD.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
Population (million):
GDP (USD bn):
GDP per capita (USD):
GDP growth (%):
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP):
Public Debt (% of GDP):
Inflation (%):
Current Account (% of GDP):
External Debt (% of GDP):
2019-21
27.8
122.8
4,421
-19.1
-6.5
254
7,950
1.2
142
2022-24
26.6
137.9
5,178
6.1
-5.4
227
0.9
80
2025-27
3.2
83
-
Massimo Bassetti
Senior Economist
Economic Growth
Change in GDP forecasts
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024
2020 - Q4 2024.
forecasts during the last 12 months.
Oil Production
Oil Price
Oil production, millions of barrels per Venezuelan oil price, USD per barrel.
day, Q4 2020 - Q4 2024.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 116
September 2023
Venezuela
Economic Indicators | 2018 - 2027
Annual Data
Real Sector
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (VES bn)
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %)
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %)
Private Consumption (ann. var. %)
Government Consumption (ann. var. %)
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %)
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %)
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %)
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %)
Unemployment (% of active population, aop)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)
90-Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop)
Stock Market (ann. var. of IBC, %)
Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (VED per USD, aop)
Non-official Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop)
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (USD bn)
Merchandise Imports (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %)
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %)
Venezuelan Oil Price (USD per barrel)
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn)
International Reserves (USD bn)
International Reserves (months of imports)
External Debt (USD bn)
External Debt (% of GDP)
Quarterly Data
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop)
Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (VED per USD, aop)
Monthly Data
Money (ann. var. of M2 %)
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %)
Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop)
Non-official Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop)
Venezuelan Oil Price (USD per barrel)
Oil Production (mn barrels per day)
International Reserves (USD bn)
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
28.9
7,061
204.1
-19.6
-17.5
-20.1
-9.1
-37.5
-10.8
0.3
-39.3
6.9
-30.3
174.5
27.8
5,398
150.2
-27.7
-35.1
-35.9
-25.7
-28.7
-11.6
-22.2
-40.1
27.0
-10.0
201.4
28.0
3,810
106.5
-30.0
-10.3
-15.4
-26.4
-30.1
-48.1
-20.6
-36.5
42.7
-5.0
319.1
27.6
4,053
111.8
0.5
6.0
0.4
4.9
-3.0
-25.3
-14.4
12.9
38.4
-4.6
240.5
26.9
4,786
128.8
11.8
10.8
11.0
8.9
20.9
16.7
23.9
13.6
34.3
-6.0
152.9
26.5
5,183
137.6
3.0
3.3
3.3
5.2
4.2
4.0
6.8
5.3
33.4
-5.4
-
26.5
5,565
147.3
3.5
4.6
4.2
5.3
3.7
9.2
7.4
5.5
32.5
-4.9
-
155.4
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.9
4.6
31.0
-3.3
-
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.2
4.1
3.6
28.3
-2.8
-
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.1
4.5
3.1
26.4
-
1,287
4,946
9,585
2,960
19,906
2,355
24.00
24.12
5,521
1,376
46,621 1,107,199
15,910
375,470
54,703
998,942
635
686
1,589
36.00
344
4.60
4.45
4.69
354
234
187
36.00
254
17.5
6.77
19.3
281
244
346
49.5
32.3
59.0
197
154
149
129.0
89.3
183.6
76
100
192.9
161.0
-
55
74
290.8
241.8
-
34
75
-
1.0
1.2
2.3
11.2
8.9
21.9
18.2
51.3
-1.0
10.9
14.7
106
95
Q2 23
3.4
404
27.8
25.7
Feb-23
412
19.30
416
24.3
24.9
62.0
0.69
9.5
1.2
1.6
3.7
16.4
12.7
46.9
42.6
76.8
0.9
9.9
9.4
109
85
Q3 23
5.1
37.6
32.7
Mar-23
342
6.09
440
24.4
25.0
57.3
0.70
9.6
0.5
0.6
3.1
16.0
12.9
-2.4
1.5
58.5
9.8
9.1
110
80
Q4 23
4.5
57.9
47.8
Apr-23
319
3.80
436
24.7
25.6
62.6
0.73
9.8
0.9
1.3
3.0
16.5
13.5
3.1
4.5
59.9
10.3
9.2
111
75.3
Q1 24
4.3
May-23
344
5.12
429
26.1
28.0
56.2
0.74
9.7
0.9
1.4
3.5
16.4
12.9
-0.7
-4.3
10.3
9.6
Q2 24
3.8
Jun-23
356
6.16
404
27.8
29.4
57.4
0.73
9.7
1.0
3.9
17.0
13.1
3.8
1.3
10.5
9.7
Q3 24
4.8
Jul-23
421
6.20
398
29.4
31.6
63.3
0.77
9.8
4.2
16.9
12.6
-0.8
-3.2
10.7
10.1
Q4 24
4.4
Aug-23
32.1
34.2
9.7
63,257
130,060
65,374
14.89
126,985
638
81.9
730
4.2
8.6
20.9
33.7
12.8
-1.0
6.3
62.2
0.9
8.8
8.3
108
53
Q3 22
8.0
157
8.15
6.66
Nov-22
389
12.56
166
10.9
13.2
66.9
0.67
9.9
4.2
6.3
12.8
22.0
9.3
-34.5
-27.5
54.0
-1.3
6.6
8.6
117
155
Q4 22
6.2
234
17.2
10.8
Dec-22
354
35.30
234
17.2
18.6
58.2
0.66
9.9
-1.6
-1.7
1.6
9.2
7.5
-58.4
-18.7
28.0
-0.5
6.4
10.1
107
174
Q1 23
2.7
440
24.4
22.5
Jan-23
409
42.14
345
21.9
23.1
61.7
0.69
9.9
Notes: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey. Exchange rate (VED per USD, aop) for 2021 only refers to the average of Bolívar Digital
(VED) for the period 1 October - 31 December 2021.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 117
September 2023
Venezuela
Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance
Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance
Individual Forecasts
AGPV
Allianz
BancTrust & Co.
Capital Economics
DekaBank
Dinámica Venezuela
Ecoanalítica
EIU
EMFI
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Julius Baer
Moody's Analytics
Novo Banco
Oxford Economics
Síntesis Financiera
Torino Capital
UBS
Public Forecasts
CEPAL
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
1 | Real GDP | 2011-2027 | var. in %
Real GDP
variation in %
2023
2024
4.4
2.0
0.0
0.8
4.2
3.8
2.5
3.5
0.5
3.1
3.9
4.6
2.9
3.5
0.5
4.4
3.3
4.3
3.7
1.0
3.3
4.7
0.9
-0.1
6.8
7.0
4.5
5.0
-0.1
0.9
4.3
3.3
1.6
7.0
7.0
Fiscal Balance
% of GDP
2023
-5.8
-4.4
-5.9
-
2024
-6.8
-2.8
-5.0
-
3.2
2.7
-
-
0.5
7.0
3.1
3.0
-0.1
7.0
3.5
3.5
-5.9
-4.4
-5.8
-5.4
-6.8
-2.8
-5.0
-4.9
3.8
4.3
4.4
3.7
3.9
3.8
-4.8
-4.4
-4.4
-4.9
-4.0
-4.0
2 | GDP 2023 | evolution of forecasts
3 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts
4 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
Notes and sources
General:
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the United Nations (UNCTAD) and the IMF. See below for details. Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1
2
3
4
GDP, annual variation in %. Source: UNCTAD.
GDP, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
General government balance as % of GDP. Source: IMF.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 118
September 2023
Venezuela
Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Consumption and Investment
Individual Forecasts
AGPV
Allianz
BancTrust & Co.
Capital Economics
DekaBank
Dinámica Venezuela
Ecoanalítica
EIU
EMFI
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Julius Baer
Moody's Analytics
Novo Banco
Oxford Economics
Síntesis Financiera
Torino Capital
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
5 | Consumption | variation in %
Consumption
variation in %
2024
2023
4.4
3.6
3.0
4.8
3.3
2.0
3.7
2.3
0.3
4.7
5.5
0.5
6.0
5.9
5.1
6.5
6.4
0.8
0.0
3.3
5.8
3.3
-
Investment
variation in %
2023
2024
5.9
6.5
2.0
1.7
5.3
0.8
1.0
5.0
8.5
3.0
2.0
6.3
8.3
0.8
0.0
6.7
-
0.3
6.4
3.3
3.3
0.0
6.5
4.5
4.2
0.8
8.5
3.0
4.2
0.0
6.5
5.0
3.7
3.8
4.5
4.8
4.0
4.1
3.9
5.1
7.8
7.4
3.5
4.3
3.7
6 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
7 | Investment | variation in %
8 | Investment | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the United Nations (UNCTAD). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.
5
6
7
8
Private consumption, annual variation in %.
Private consumption, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 119
September 2023
Venezuela
Monetary Sector | Inflation
Consumer Prices
Individual Forecasts
AGPV
Allianz
BancTrust & Co.
Capital Economics
DekaBank
Dinámica Venezuela
Ecoanalítica
EIU
EMFI
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Julius Baer
Moody's Analytics
Novo Banco
Oxford Economics
Síntesis Financiera
Torino Capital
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
9 | Inflation | 2011 - 2027 | in %
Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop
2024
2023
238.0
185.0
99.6
203.7
343.9
215.7
258.9
124.8
84.8
199.8
250.2
245.0
114.0
287.8
311.2
271.2
100.0
140.0
Consumer Prices
variation in %, aop
2023
2024
335.1
108.6
390.3
240.4
351.7
141.0
94.2
336.6
376.2
142.1
372.6
93.8
335.5
250.0
225.0
368.2
-
140.0
343.9
247.6
243.8
84.8
311.2
119.4
154.4
250.0
390.3
351.7
346.2
93.8
240.4
141.0
149.3
233.2
231.4
231.3
118.0
139.6
137.4
291.3
298.2
291.9
127.8
141.9
149.2
10 | Inflation | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in %
11 | Inflation 2023 | evolution of fcsts
12 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcsts
Notes and sources
General:
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All monetary data are from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
9 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
10 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (aop).
11 Inflation, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 120
September 2023
Venezuela
External Sector | Current Account and International Reserves
Current Account and International Reserves
Individual Forecasts
AGPV
Allianz
BancTrust & Co.
Capital Economics
DekaBank
Dinámica Venezuela
Ecoanalítica
EIU
EMFI
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Julius Baer
Moody's Analytics
Novo Banco
Oxford Economics
Síntesis Financiera
Torino Capital
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
13 | Current Account | USD bn
Current Account
USD bn
2024
2023
-1.5
0.4
1.3
1.7
-2.5
0.1
1.7
1.3
0.3
2.6
1.1
-2.2
-0.8
2.5
3.4
1.3
3.5
3.0
International Reserves
USD bn
2023
2024
9.7
10.9
9.8
10.0
9.8
9.6
10.4
10.0
10.1
10.3
8.9
10.5
10.5
-2.5
3.0
1.2
0.6
-1.5
3.5
1.7
1.3
8.9
10.5
9.8
9.8
9.8
10.9
10.4
10.3
1.3
1.9
2.2
1.6
2.7
2.8
9.9
10.1
10.3
10.5
10.5
10.9
14 | Current Account | evol. of fcsts
15 | Int. Reserves | months of imports
16 | Int. Reserves | evol of fcsts
Notes and sources
General:
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
13
14
15
16
Current account balance in USD billion.
Current account balance in USD billion, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
International reserves, months of imports.
International reserves, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 121
September 2023
Venezuela
External Sector | Exports and Imports
Exports and Imports
Individual Forecasts
AGPV
Allianz
BancTrust & Co.
Capital Economics
DekaBank
Dinámica Venezuela
Ecoanalítica
EIU
EMFI
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Julius Baer
Moody's Analytics
Novo Banco
Oxford Economics
Síntesis Financiera
Torino Capital
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
17 | Trade Balance | USD bn
Exports
USD bn
2023
19.9
13.4
11.7
12.6
17.5
19.1
13.6
9.9
15.8
24.6
18.0
2024
22.8
13.7
13.5
16.3
18.9
15.5
11.2
17.6
19.0
Imports
USD bn
2023
21.0
11.2
9.9
11.6
16.4
13.0
12.4
10.6
7.6
12.4
17.2
11.2
2024
24.0
13.6
10.4
12.5
17.3
11.3
12.4
7.8
13.3
12.0
9.9
24.6
15.8
16.0
11.2
22.8
16.3
16.5
7.6
21.0
12.0
12.9
7.8
24.0
12.5
13.5
16.7
17.7
17.9
17.1
18.1
17.7
12.9
13.4
13.2
14.1
14.1
14.0
18 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts
19 | Exports | evol. of forecasts
20 | Imports | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
General:
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
17 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD.
18 Trade balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
19 Exports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
20 Imports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 122
September 2023
Venezuela
Fact Sheet
General Data
Venezuela in the Region*
Official name:
Bolivarian Republic of
Venezuela
Caracas (2.9m)
Maracaibo (2.1m)
Valencia (1.7m)
912,050
27.6
30.2
-0.2
71.0
2.9
Spanish
Metric system
GMT-4.30
Capital:
Other cities:
Area (km2):
Population (million, 2019 est.):
Population density (per km2, 2019):
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.):
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.):
Illiteracy rate (%, 2016):
Language:
Measures:
Time:
Economic Infrastructure
Population | %-share in Latin America
GDP | %-share in Latin America
Economic Structure
Communications (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants):
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.):
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants):
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants):
19.2
72
64.3
9.0
Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu):
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu):
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h):
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h):
Oil Supply (thousand bpd):
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd):
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons):
GDP by Sector | share in %
GDP by Expenditure | share in %
6,242
2,493
104
69.5
2,077
493
154
Transportation (2018)
Airports:
Railways (km):
Roadways (km):
Waterways (km):
Chief Ports:
444
447
96,189
7,100
La Guaira, Maracaibo
Trade Structure
Primary markets | share in %
Political Data
President:
Last presidential elections:
Next presidential elections:
Central Bank President:
Nicolás Maduro Moros
20 May 2018
2024
Calixto Ortega Sánchez
Exports
Imports
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
Agency
Moody's:
S&P Global Ratings:
Fitch Ratings:
Strengths
• Abundant wealth in natural
resources
• Strategic geographic location
between South America and the
Caribbean
Rating
Restricted Default
Outlook
-
Primary products | share in %
Weaknesses
• Government's heavy intervention
in the economy
• Rampant currency depreciation
• Dependence on oil
• Runaway inflation
Exports
Imports
*Note: Regional calculation includes Venezuela
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 123
untries
Bolivia
•
GDP growth was 3.5% last year, equaling the average of the prior 10 years.
Recent data shows GDP growth weakened to 2.3% in Q1 of this year due
to slowing private and government spending and a slump in exports. The
slowdown was expected given earlier high-frequency data. Looking ahead,
high-frequency data suggests that the economy likely remained weak in
Q2. In Q2, cement output fell slightly year on year (Q1: +3.2% yoy), and
natural gas production dropped 14% (Q1: -10% yoy). Cement output is a
proxy for the construction industry, and its drop potentially indicates that
higher input costs and interest rates this year have discouraged building
work. Meanwhile, the fall in natural gas production largely reflects a recent
lack of government funding for exploration wells. In other news, in August,
the government said it hoped for upgrades to its credit ratings after paying
the last installment of a USD 500 million loan.
•
The economy is seen expanding less this year than last year as the base
effect toughens, global GDP growth weakens and gas output declines.
Commodity prices are a key factor to monitor, as the plummet in natural
gas prices since late last year will likely strain the external and fiscal
balances. Social unrest and renewed pressure on the currency peg are
downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.3% in
2023, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and
expanding 2.4% in 2024.
•
Inflation was stable at 2.7% in July. The currency peg and government
subsidies have contained inflation in recent years. Our panelists see
Bolivia maintaining one of the region’s lowest inflation rates this year
and next. Key factors to watch include changes to the currency peg,
government subsidies, export controls and the El Niño weather pattern.
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 2.9% on average
in 2023, which is unchanged from one month ago, and rising 4.1% on
average in 2024.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
2019-21
11.6
39.3
3,380
-0.1
-9.8
72.9
1.2
-0.4
38.9
2022-24
12.1
46.2
3,806
2.7
-6.7
83.5
2.9
-1.6
44.0
2025-27
12.6
52.4
4,147
2.7
-5.7
86.0
3.4
-2.5
51.3
Matthew Cunningham
Economist
Economic Growth
GDP, annual variation in %.
Source:
Instituto
Nacional
Estadística (INE).
Inflation
Bolivia
Outlook improves
Bolivia
Population (million):
GDP (USD bn):
GDP per capita (USD):
GDP growth (%):
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP):
Public Debt (% of GDP):
Inflation (%):
Current Account (% of GDP):
External Debt (% of GDP):
September 2023
Change in GDP forecasts
GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024
de forecasts during the last 12 months.
Change in inflation forecasts
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2023 and 2024
average variation in %.
forecasts during the last 12 months.
Source: INE.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast
| 124
September 2023
Bolivia
Economic Indicators | 2018 - 2027
Annual Data
Real Sector
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (BOB bn)
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %)
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)
Private Consumption (ann. var. %)
Government Consumption (ann. var. %)
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %)
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %)
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)
Prime Lending Rate (%, eop)
Exchange Rate (BOB per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (BOB per USD, aop)
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (USD bn)
Merchandise Imports (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %)
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %)
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn)
International Reserves (USD bn)
International Reserves (months of imports)
External Debt (USD bn)
External Debt (% of GDP)
0
1 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
11.3
3,552
40.2
278
7.4
4.2
4.3
5.1
3.2
5.2
1.9
-8.1
53.1
11.5
3,560
40.8
283
1.5
2.2
3.7
3.8
-3.5
-1.8
1.5
-7.2
59.3
11.6
3,153
36.7
253
-10.4
-8.7
-7.9
-2.8
-25.9
-18.8
-25.0
-12.7
78.0
11.8
3,428
40.4
279
10.3
6.1
5.3
5.4
11.9
15.4
15.7
-9.3
81.4
12.0
3,685
44.1
304
8.9
3.5
4.2
4.0
6.5
15.6
7.6
-7.3
82.6
12.1
3,810
46.2
320
5.1
2.3
2.4
1.8
2.7
-4.0
2.0
-6.6
82.7
12.3
3,924
48.2
340
6.5
2.4
1.4
0.4
1.9
0.7
-0.1
-6.1
85.1
12.5
4,069
50.7
373
9.7
2.4
2.4
1.4
3.1
2.6
3.1
-6.0
85.8
12.6
4,113
52.0
407
9.2
2.8
2.4
1.6
-5.7
86.1
12.8
4,261
54.6
448
10.0
2.8
2.7
1.8
-5.4
86.2
5.4
1.5
2.3
8.04
6.93
6.93
-7.5
1.5
1.8
8.40
6.91
6.92
14.1
0.7
0.9
7.59
6.89
6.90
6.6
0.9
0.7
8.02
6.91
6.90
4.0
3.1
1.7
7.76
6.93
6.90
3.3
2.9
6.91
6.92
4.4
4.1
7.21
7.06
3.7
3.8
7.53
7.37
3.2
3.3
8.15
7.84
3.1
3.1
8.25
8.20
-4.3
-1.7
-0.4
8.9
9.3
9.9
7.0
0.3
7.2
9.2
13.2
33.0
-3.3
-1.4
-0.3
8.8
9.1
-1.3
-2.1
-0.2
4.4
5.7
14.3
35.0
-0.1
0.0
0.6
7.0
6.4
-20.6
-29.8
-1.1
2.7
5.0
15.4
42.1
2.2
0.9
2.2
11.0
8.8
56.4
37.0
0.6
2.2
3.1
16.0
39.5
-0.4
-0.2
1.6
13.5
11.9
23.5
35.6
0.0
1.3
1.3
18.6
42.2
-2.1
-1.0
1.0
12.4
11.4
-8.7
-4.5
20.3
44.0
-2.4
-1.1
1.0
13.0
11.9
4.9
4.7
22.1
45.8
-2.3
-1.1
0.9
12.9
12.0
-0.6
1.0
24.3
47.9
-2.8
-1.4
0.6
13.1
12.5
1.3
3.5
26.7
51.4
-2.6
-1.4
0.6
13.6
13.0
4.2
4.0
29.8
54.5
2 | Exchange Rate | BOB per USD
3 | Current Account | % of GDP
Notes and sources
Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.
General:
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All data are from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco
Central de Bolivia), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Macrobond Financial AB. See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: IMF.
2 Exchange rate, BOB per USD (eop). Source: Macrobond Financial AB.
3 Current account as % of GDP. Source: BCB.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast
| 125
September 2023
Bolivia
Fact Sheet
General Data
Bolivia in the Region
Official name:
Capital (Administrative):
Capital (Judicial):
Other cities:
Area (km2):
Population (million, 2019 est.):
Population density (per km2, 2019):
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.):
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.):
Illiteracy rate (%, 2015):
Language:
Measures:
Time:
Plurinational State of
Bolivia
La Paz (1.8 m)
Sucre (0.2 m)
Cochabamba (1.2 m)
1,098,581
11.8
10.7
1.4
70.4
7.5
Spanish, Quechua and
Aymara
Metric system
GMT-4
Economic Infrastructure
GDP | %-share in Latin America
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants):
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.):
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants):
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants):
6.3
100.8
44.3
4.4
Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu):
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu):
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h):
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h):
Oil Supply (thousand bpd):
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd):
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons):
852
343
9.5
8.3
77.3
102.3
21.7
Transportation (2018)
Airports:
Railways (km):
Roadways (km):
Waterways (km):
Chief Ports:
Population | %-share in Latin America
855
3,960
90,568
10,000
Puerto Aguirre
GDP by Sector | share in %
GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Trade Structure
Primary markets | share in %
Political Data
President:
Last elections:
Next elections:
Central Bank President:
Luis Arce
18 October 2020
October 2025
Roger Edwin Rojas Ulo
Exports
Imports
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
Agency
Moody's:
S&P Global Ratings:
Fitch Ratings:
Strengths
Rating
Caa1
BB-
Outlook
Negative
Negative
Negative
Primary products | share in %
Weaknesses
• Rich in natural resources
• Landlocked country
• Highly dependent on the
• Tourism potential
• Exchange rate and price stability hydrocarbon sector
• Elevated levels of poverty
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast
Exports
Imports
| 126
Ecuador
September 2023
Ecuador
Outlook moderates
Ecuador
•
The economy should have expanded at a faster clip in Q2, following a
deceleration in year-on-year growth in Q1. Economic activity increased at
a considerably faster annual pace, on average, in April−June than in Q1.
Meanwhile, in mid-August Fitch Ratings downgraded the country’s rating
into junk territory, from “B-” to “CCC+”, on heightened financing risks
stemming from a marked deterioration in the public finances amid social
turmoil and political uncertainty. In politics, Luisa Gonzalez of former
president Correa’s Citizen Revolution Movement won the first round of
the presidential elections on 20 August, ahead of Daniel Noboa. While the
former advocates higher social spending, the latter focuses on improving
the business climate, introducing tax incentives for businesses and job
creation. The two candidates will face each other in the 15 October runoff.
•
Our panel sees GDP growing at a softer pace this year than in
2022. Weaker domestic demand, tighter financing conditions and
protracted political instability will take a toll on activity. However,
robust oil and shrimp output should sustain growth. A weakerthan-expected global economy and further sociopolitical instability
remain the main downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics
panelists see GDP expanding 1.8% in 2023, which is down by 0.1
percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 1.8% in 2024.
•
Inflation rose to 2.6% in August from 2.1% in July. Inflation should remain
fairly low through Q4 2023, dampened by a dollarized economy, tighter
financing conditions and soft domestic activity. However, higher global
energy prices will provide some upward pressure. Swings in agricultural
prices as a result of the El Niño weather pattern are a key factor to watch.
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 2.4% on average
in 2023, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and
rising 2.6% on average in 2024.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
Population (million):
GDP (USD bn):
GDP per capita (USD):
GDP growth (%):
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP):
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Inflation (%):
Current Account (% of GDP):
External Debt (% of GDP):
2019-21
17.5
105
5,970
-1.2
-4.1
57.9
0.0
1.7
49.5
2022-24
18.3
119
6,516
2.2
-1.0
53.7
2.8
1.2
-
2025-27
19.0
135
7,092
2.3
-0.6
51.5
2.3
1.3
-
Massimo Bassetti
Senior Economist
Economic Growth
Change in GDP forecasts
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024
2020 - Q4 2024.
forecasts during the last 12 months.
Inflation
Change in inflation forecasts
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2023 and 2024
average variation in %, Q4 2020 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2024.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast
| 127
Ecuador
Economic Activity | variation in %
September 2023
REAL SECTOR | Economic activity growth accelerates in June
Economic activity rose 12.2% compared to the same month a year earlier
in June, which was an improvement from May’s 5.5% increase. The result
marked the best reading since February 2022.
Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average growth of
economic activity coming in at 13.1%, down from May’s 14.2% reading.
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.8% in 2023, which is down
by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 1.8% in 2024.
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of economic activity
in %.
Source: Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador)
Inflation | Consumer Price Index
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation rises in August
Inflation rose to 2.6% in August, above July’s 2.1%. August’s result represented
the highest inflation rate since March. Looking at the details of the release,
prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased at a quicker rate while
prices for transportation fell at a softer pace in August.
Annual average inflation fell to 2.9% in August (July: 3.0%).
Finally, consumer prices rose 0.50% in August over the previous month,
largely in line with the 0.54% increase logged in July.
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 2.4% on average in
2023, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and rising
2.6% on average in 2024.
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month changes of consumer price index in %.
Source: National Statistical Institute (INEC).
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast
| 128
Ecuador
September 2023
Economic Indicators | 2018 - 2027
Annual Data
Real Sector
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)
GDP (USD bn)
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %)
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %)
Private Consumption (ann. var. %)
Government Consumption (ann. var. %)
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %)
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %)
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %)
Industry (ann. var. %)
Unemployment (% of active population, aop)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Monetary and Financial Sector
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)
91-120 Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop)
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (USD bn)
Merchandise Imports (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %)
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %)
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn)
International Reserves (USD bn)
International Reserves (months of imports)
External Debt (USD bn)
External Debt (% of GDP)
Quarterly Data
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)
Monthly Data
Economic Activity (IDEAC, ann. var. %)
Consumer Confidence Index (50-pt threshold)
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %)
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
17.0
6,319
107.6
3.1
1.3
2.2
2.1
3.5
2.0
1.2
4.4
-1.0
4.1
-2.8
49.8
17.3
6,261
108.1
0.5
0.0
-0.9
0.3
-2.0
-3.3
3.6
0.3
0.2
4.4
-3.5
53.0
17.5
5,670
99.3
-8.2
-7.8
-10.2
-8.2
-5.1
-19.0
-5.4
-13.8
-10.0
6.1
-7.1
63.6
17.8
5,979
106.2
6.9
4.2
8.1
10.2
-1.7
4.3
-0.1
13.2
0.5
5.2
-1.6
57.1
18.0
6,390
115.0
8.4
2.9
3.5
4.6
4.5
2.5
2.5
4.5
1.1
4.3
0.1
54.2
18.3
6,475
118.2
1.8
1.0
2.0
2.1
-0.4
2.3
2.0
4.1
-1.5
53.9
18.5
6,684
123.8
1.8
1.7
1.9
1.8
2.5
2.3
2.0
4.3
-1.7
52.8
18.8
7,015
131.7
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.8
2.6
-0.8
52.3
19.0
7,030
133.8
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.5
2.9
3.1
-0.6
51.3
19.3
7,231
139.6
2.3
2.7
2.7
2.5
3.0
3.2
-0.4
50.9
0.3
-0.2
5.43
-0.1
0.3
6.17
-0.9
-0.3
5.89
1.9
0.1
5.91
3.7
3.5
6.35
2.2
2.4
-
2.1
2.6
-
2.1
2.6
-
2.3
2.1
-
2.3
2.1
-
-1.2
-1.3
-0.2
22.2
22.4
13.3
15.9
1.4
2.7
1.4
40.2
37.4
Q3 22
2.7
1.7
4.1
3.9
Nov-22
2.7
35.1
-0.01
3.6
-0.1
-0.2
1.0
22.8
21.7
2.8
-2.7
1.0
3.4
1.9
46.1
42.6
Q4 22
4.3
2.3
3.7
3.8
Dec-22
-0.2
36.7
0.16
3.7
2.2
2.2
3.5
20.6
17.1
-9.7
-21.4
1.1
7.2
5.1
52.5
52.9
Q1 23
0.7
-3.4
2.8
3.0
Jan-23
2.1
36.5
0.12
3.1
2.9
3.1
3.0
27.0
24.0
31.1
40.3
0.6
7.9
4.0
56.2
53.0
Q2 23
3.0
1.7
2.0
Feb-23
0.5
35.3
0.02
2.9
1.9
2.2
2.5
33.0
30.5
22.5
27.2
0.8
8.5
3.3
57.5
50.0
Q3 23
2.3
1.8
1.9
Mar-23
-0.6
35.7
0.06
2.8
1.2
1.4
2.6
31.3
28.7
-5.3
-5.8
7.6
3.2
61.0
51.6
Q4 23
1.2
1.9
2.0
Apr-23
0.2
35.5
0.20
2.4
0.5
0.6
1.6
30.5
28.9
-2.6
0.7
7.3
3.0
Q1 24
2.8
2.2
2.2
May-23
5.5
34.4
0.09
2.0
1.1
1.4
2.8
32.6
29.8
6.9
2.9
7.3
2.9
Q2 24
2.1
1.9
2.4
Jun-23
12.2
35.3
0.37
1.7
1.4
1.9
2.9
33.3
30.5
2.3
2.3
7.9
3.1
Q3 24
1.7
1.6
2.0
Jul-23
35.6
0.54
2.1
1.3
1.9
2.4
33.3
31.0
0.1
1.7
Q4 24
1.4
1.6
1.9
Aug-23
0.50
2.6
Notes: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast
| 129
Ecuador
September 2023
Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance
Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance
Individual Forecasts
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
CABI
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
EIU
EmergingMarketWatch
EMFI
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Goldman Sachs
Humboldt Management
JPMorgan
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Torino Capital
Public Forecasts
CEPAL
World Bank
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
1 | Real GDP | 2011-2027 | var. in %
Real GDP
variation in %
2023
2024
0.6
0.0
2.0
1.7
1.0
1.5
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.2
1.7
1.9
2.5
1.6
0.8
1.9
1.8
1.4
1.7
1.5
1.0
2.2
1.8
1.2
2.9
1.0
1.6
1.1
1.4
4.2
2.2
1.9
2.9
1.7
-
Fiscal Balance
% of GDP
2023
-1.2
-1.6
-1.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.5
-1.7
-1.2
-2.5
-2.4
-4.3
-0.6
-0.1
2024
-2.6
-2.1
-2.0
-0.7
-1.9
-0.5
-1.7
-1.5
-2.0
-1.6
-4.0
0.6
-
2.3
2.6
2.6
2.8
-
-
0.6
4.2
1.7
1.8
0.0
2.9
1.8
1.8
-4.3
0.0
-1.2
-1.5
-4.0
0.6
-1.8
-1.7
1.9
2.1
2.2
1.9
2.0
2.1
-1.5
-1.3
-0.9
-1.5
-1.3
-0.8
2 | GDP 2023 | evolution of forecasts
3 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts
4 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador) and the IMF. See below
for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1
2
3
4
GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCE.
GDP, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
General government balance as % of GDP. Source: IMF.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast
| 130
Ecuador
September 2023
Monetary Sector | Inflation
Consumer Prices
Individual Forecasts
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
CABI
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
EIU
EmergingMarketWatch
EMFI
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Goldman Sachs
Humboldt Management
JPMorgan
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Torino Capital
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
5 | Inflation | 2011-2027 | in %
Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop
2023
2024
1.8
2.1
2.7
3.0
2.5
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.0
1.4
2.3
3.0
3.0
1.6
1.5
3.5
2.5
2.6
2.3
2.0
1.5
2.5
2.0
1.8
2.3
2.2
-
Consumer Prices
variation in %, aop
2023
2024
2.2
2.2
2.0
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.1
1.5
2.3
2.0
2.8
1.8
2.8
3.0
2.3
1.8
2.4
2.7
2.4
2.4
3.6
7.4
2.0
2.5
2.3
-
1.4
3.5
2.1
2.2
1.0
3.0
2.1
2.1
2.0
3.6
2.3
2.4
1.5
7.4
2.1
2.6
1.9
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.0
6 | Inflation | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in %
7 | Inflation 2023 | evolution of fcsts
8 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcsts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary and external sector data are from the National
Statistical Institute (INEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.
5
6
7
8
Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
Inflation, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast
| 131
Ecuador
September 2023
External Sector | Current Account and International Reserves
Current Account and International Reserves
Individual Forecasts
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
CABI
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
EIU
EmergingMarketWatch
EMFI
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Goldman Sachs
Humboldt Management
JPMorgan
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Torino Capital
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
9 | Current Account | % of GDP
Current Account
% of GDP
2023
2024
-0.8
1.0
0.3
1.2
2.0
1.0
0.7
0.1
0.7
-0.3
0.9
0.5
1.5
1.4
0.8
0.7
1.4
1.3
1.0
1.0
0.4
-0.6
2.5
-0.5
1.6
1.9
0.3
-
International Reserves
USD bn
2023
2024
6.4
7.3
9.0
9.0
7.3
7.5
6.7
6.5
7.8
7.0
6.5
6.0
8.3
9.0
-
0.3
2.5
1.0
1.2
-0.8
1.9
0.5
0.5
6.5
9.0
7.3
7.6
6.0
9.0
7.0
7.3
1.2
1.4
1.2
0.8
1.1
0.8
8.2
8.5
8.5
8.0
8.9
8.6
10 | Current Account | evol. of fcsts
11 | Int. Reserves | months of imports
12 | Int. Reserves | evol of fcsts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
9
10
11
12
Current account balance as % of GDP.
Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
International reserves, months of imports.
International reserves, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast
| 132
Ecuador
September 2023
External Sector | Exports and Imports
Exports and Imports
Individual Forecasts
BancTrust & Co.
Barclays Capital
CABI
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
EIU
EmergingMarketWatch
EMFI
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
Goldman Sachs
Humboldt Management
JPMorgan
Moody's Analytics
Oxford Economics
Torino Capital
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
13 | Trade Balance | USD bn
Exports
USD bn
2023
28.8
34.1
30.0
32.9
29.8
32.2
29.1
31.6
29.5
29.5
36.6
2024
26.6
34.8
28.4
33.9
28.8
31.3
27.8
34.4
30.1
28.7
-
Imports
USD bn
2023
28.2
24.5
27.6
30.1
28.4
30.2
28.7
28.7
28.0
27.5
34.1
2024
28.2
31.1
28.4
31.4
28.3
29.3
27.6
30.5
28.6
25.9
-
28.8
36.6
30.0
31.3
26.6
34.8
29.4
30.5
24.5
34.1
28.4
28.7
25.9
31.4
28.5
28.9
31.4
31.9
32.4
30.9
31.3
34.9
28.7
28.9
29.5
29.1
29.3
30.5
14 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts
15 | Exports | evol. of forecasts
16 | Imports | evol. of forecasts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
13 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD.
14 Trade balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
15 Exports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Imports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast
| 133
Ecuador
September 2023
Fact Sheet
General Data
Ecuador in the Region
Official name:
Capital:
Other cities:
Republic of Ecuador
Quito (1.8m)
Guayaquil (2.9m)
Cuenca (0.3m)
283,561
17.8
62.6
1.2
77.5
7.2
Spanish, Quechua
Metric system
GMT-5
Area (km2):
Population (million, 2019 est.):
Population density (per km2, 2019):
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.):
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.):
Illiteracy rate (%, 2017):
Language:
Measures:
Time:
Economic Infrastructure
GDP | %-share in Latin America
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants):
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.):
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants):
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants):
Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu):
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu):
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h):
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h):
Oil Supply (thousand bpd):
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd):
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons):
Population | %-share in Latin America
13.8
92
57.3
11.4
GDP by Sector | share in %
GDP by Expenditure | share in %
1,369
715
28.6
24.9
533
256
39.6
Transportation (2018)
Airports:
Railways (km):
Roadways (km):
Waterways (km):
Chief Ports:
432
965
43,216
1,500
Guayaquil, Manta
Trade Structure
Primary markets | share in %
Political Data
President:
Last elections:
Next elections:
Central Bank Governor:
Guillermo Lasso
11 April 2021
15 October 2023
Guillermo Avellán Solines
Exports
Imports
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
Agency
Moody's:
S&P Global Ratings:
Fitch Ratings:
Rating
Caa3
BCCC+
Outlook
Stable
Stable
-
Strengths
Weaknesses
• Substantial oil and gas wealth
• Tourism potential
• Diverse climate enables a wide
range of crops
• Dollarization limits scope to
adjust to external shocks
• Polarized political system
• High dependence on oil exports
Primary products | share in %
Exports
Imports
ç
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast
| 134
Paraguay
September 2023
Paraguay
Outlook stable
Paraguay
•
Last year, GDP stagnated, making the country Latin America’s worstperforming economy. In Q1 of this year, year-on-year GDP growth sped up
sharply to 5.2% thanks to stronger exports plus private and government
spending and a softer decline in fixed investment. In Q2, GDP growth
likely remained robust, with economic activity expanding at a faster yearon-year pace than in the prior quarter. Output in agriculture, electricity,
manufacturing and services supported activity in the quarter, according
to the statistics office. In other news, Santiago Peña took office as prime
minister on 15 August. He will face a host of challenges ahead: Rising
crime, juggling ties with both China and Taiwan, a U.S. probe into his
political mentor and the risk to agricultural output posed by the El Niño
weather pattern.
•
Paraguay will be among LATAM’s fastest-growing economies this year,
but this will be largely due to the low base of comparison created by last
year’s stagnation. That said, underlying activity should be aided by lower
inflation and better weather after last year’s drought. El Niño is a key
risk—agriculture would be boosted by moderate rainfall but hurt by heavy
rainfall. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 4.3% in 2023,
which is unchanged from one month ago, and expanding 3.9% in 2024.
•
Inflation slowed for the seventh consecutive month to 2.9% in August
(July: 3.5%), below the Central Bank’s 4.0% target. Average inflation
should remain roughly stable for the rest of the year before rising in 2024.
Declining inflation led the Central Bank to cut its policy rate for the first
time in more than three years on 23 August—by 25 basis points to 8.25%.
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 5.0% on average
in 2023, which is down by 0.2 percentage points from one month ago, and
rising 3.7% on average in 2024.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
Population (million):
GDP (USD bn):
GDP per capita (USD):
GDP growth (%):
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP):
Public Debt (% of GDP):
Inflation (%):
Current Account (% of GDP):
External Debt (% of GDP):
2019-21
7.3
37.7
5,195
0.9
-4.2
33.4
3.1
0.2
50.9
2022-24
7.6
44.3
5,855
2.7
-2.4
41.7
6.2
-2.9
-
2025-27
7.9
52.9
6,721
3.8
-1.5
3.8
-1.2
-
Matthew Cunningham
Economist
Economic Growth
Change in GDP forecasts
GDP, annual variation in %.
Source: Banco Central del Paraguay
(BCP).
GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024
forecasts during the last 12 months.
Inflation
Change in inflation forecasts
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2023 and 2024
average variation in %.
forecasts during the last 12 months.
Source: BCP.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast
| 135
September 2023
Paraguay
Economic Indicators | 2018 - 2027
Annual Data
Real Sector
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (PYG bn)
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %)
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %)
Private Consumption (ann. var. %)
Government Consumption (ann. var. %)
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %)
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %)
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %)
Unemployment (% of active population, eop)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop)
Exchange Rate (PYG per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (PYG per USD, aop)
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (USD bn)
Merchandise Imports (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %)
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %)
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn)
International Reserves (USD bn)
International Reserves (months of imports)
External Debt (USD bn)
External Debt (% of GDP)
1 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
7.1
5,690
40.1
230,576
5.2
3.2
6.4
4.3
3.0
6.9
-0.4
8.2
5.6
-1.3
22.3
7.2
5,297
37.9
236,681
2.6
-0.4
0.2
1.8
4.7
-6.1
-3.4
-2.0
5.7
-2.8
25.8
7.3
4,872
35.3
239,915
1.4
-0.8
-2.8
-3.6
5.1
5.3
-9.0
-15.2
7.2
-6.1
36.9
7.4
5,414
39.8
270,634
12.8
4.0
10.1
6.1
2.6
18.2
2.1
21.8
6.8
-3.6
37.5
7.5
5,579
41.6
291,336
7.6
0.1
2.5
2.2
-5.7
-2.3
-1.6
5.6
5.7
-3.0
40.9
7.6
5,831
44.1
323,430
11.0
4.3
0.5
2.5
4.3
0.5
9.3
4.1
-2.4
41.8
7.7
6,156
47.1
346,229
7.0
3.9
4.4
3.2
2.7
6.4
4.4
4.1
-1.8
42.5
7.8
6,419
49.8
371,129
7.2
3.8
3.8
3.5
3.5
6.3
3.6
3.1
-1.7
-
7.9
6,720
52.8
399,684
7.7
3.9
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.9
-1.5
-
8.0
7,023
55.9
428,199
7.1
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.6
-1.5
-
6.2
3.2
4.0
5.25
5,960
5,746
7.2
2.8
2.8
4.00
6,464
6,246
19.1
2.2
1.8
0.75
6,897
6,789
6.8
6.8
4.8
5.25
6,906
6,798
3.0
8.1
9.8
8.50
7,366
7,006
4.3
5.0
6.90
7,317
7,342
3.6
3.7
5.30
7,376
7,347
3.7
3.8
5.17
7,528
7,452
3.8
3.9
5.17
7,601
7,565
3.7
3.8
5.17
7,707
7,654
-0.2
-0.1
0.6
13.2
12.6
1.5
11.6
0.2
8.0
7.6
15.8
39.4
-0.6
-0.2
0.2
12.1
11.9
-8.1
-5.5
0.3
7.7
7.7
16.4
43.2
2.0
0.7
1.2
11.0
9.7
-9.6
-18.3
0.1
9.5
11.7
19.8
55.9
-0.8
-0.3
0.6
13.2
12.6
20.7
29.4
0.2
9.9
9.5
21.4
53.6
-6.7
-2.8
-1.9
12.8
14.7
-3.1
17.1
0.5
9.8
8.0
-
-1.0
-0.5
0.1
14.6
14.5
13.9
-1.7
9.9
8.2
-
-0.9
-0.4
0.1
15.4
15.4
5.6
6.0
10.6
8.3
-
-1.0
-0.5
0.1
15.8
15.6
2.3
1.8
-
-1.2
-0.7
0.1
16.4
16.3
3.7
3.9
-
-1.4
-0.8
0.0
17.3
17.3
5.7
6.2
-
2 | Public Debt | % of GDP
3 | Current Account | % of GDP
Notes and sources
Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All data are from the Central Bank of Paraguay
(BCP, Banco Central del Paraguay), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Ministry of the Treasury (MH, Ministerio de Hacienda). See below for details. Forecasts based
on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1 Balance of central government as % of GDP. Source: MH and BCP.
2 Public sector debt as % of GDP. Source: IMF.
3 Current account as % of GDP. Source: IMF.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast
| 136
September 2023
Paraguay
Fact Sheet
General Data
Paraguay in the Region
Republic of Paraguay
Asunción (3.2m)
Ciudad del Este (0.2m)
Pedro Juan Caballero (0.1m)
406,752
Area (km2):
7.4
Population (million, 2019 est.):
Population density (per km2, 2019):
18.1
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.):
1.2
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.):
77.9
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018):
6.0
Language:
Spanish, Guaraní
Measures:
Metric system
Time:
GMT-4
Official name:
Capital:
Other cities:
Economic Infrastructure
Population | %-share in Latin America
GDP | %-share in Latin America
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants):
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.):
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants):
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants):
4.4
107
65.0
4.6
Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu):
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu):
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h):
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h):
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd):
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons):
546
518
59.2
11.6
60.1
7.2
Transportation (2018)
Airports:
Railways (km):
Roadways (km):
Waterways (km):
Chief Ports:
799
30.0
74,676
3,100
Asunción
GDP by Sector | share in %
GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Trade Structure
Primary markets | share in %
Political Data
Santiago Peña
30 April 2023
2028
José Cantero Sienra
President:
Last elections:
Next elections:
Central Bank President:
Exports
Imports
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
Agency
Moody's:
S&P Global Ratings:
Fitch Ratings:
Rating
Ba1
BB
BB+
Outlook
Positive
Stable
Stable
Strengths
Weaknesses
• Favorable conditions for
agriculture
• Vulnerability to commodity price
swings
• Commitment to structural
reforms
• Stable source of income from
hydroelectric dams
• Dependence on neighboring
economies
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast
Primary products | share in %
Exports
Imports
| 137
Uruguay
September 2023
Uruguay
Outlook moderates
Uruguay
•
After growing in Q1, the economy likely contracted year on year in Q2 on
the back of double-digit interest rates and as a severe drought weighed
on hydroelectrical generation, agricultural output and the food processing
industry. The volume of agricultural exports plummeted 45% in annual
terms in the quarter, with food-related manufacturing exports down 7%.
More positively, inflation dipped notably in the quarter, which, together
with strong wage growth, should have supported private consumption.
Heading into Q3, GDP is expected to return to growth, thanks to rate cuts
by the Central Bank, a further pullback in inflation, and the easing of the
historic drought. Recent rains saw the water level at the Paso Severino
dam, which supplies water to Montevideo, rise to close to 50% capacity in
late August from single digits at end-Q2.
•
GDP growth is seen decelerating this year relative to 2022 due to drought
hampering agricultural and industrial output. However, the El Niño
weather pattern should bring more rain in H2, helping alleviate drought
conditions in the period. Rainfall levels and tensions within Mercosur over
Uruguay’s attempts to sign bilateral trade deals are key factors to watch.
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.3% in 2023, which is
down by 0.2 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 2.7%
in 2024.
•
Inflation came in at 4.1% in August, which was down from July’s 4.8%
and well within the Central Bank’s 3.0–6.0% target range. August’s
figure marked the lowest inflation rate since September 2005. Inflation
should remain within the Bank’s target range in H2 despite an expected
slight uptick by year-end on monetary easing and higher oil prices.
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 6.5% on average
in 2023, which is down by 0.3 percentage points from one month ago, and
rising 6.2% on average in 2024.
•
On 15 August, the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) reduced its policy rate
by 75 basis points to 10.00%, more than the 50 basis point cut the market
was expecting. The move marked the continuation of the monetary policy
easing cycle that the Bank kicked off in April. The Consensus is for more
rate cuts by the end of this year and for monetary easing to persist in
2024. FocusEconomics panelists see the monetary policy rate ending
2023 at 9.39% and ending 2024 at 8.33%.
•
The peso traded at UYU 37.88 per USD on 7 September, appreciating
1.0% month on month. The peso is seen weakening from its current level
by end-2023 as further rate cuts by the BCU narrow the positive interest
rate differential with the U.S. Faster-than-expected monetary easing by
the BCU poses a depreciatory risk. FocusEconomics panelists see the
peso ending 2023 at UYU 40.18 per USD and ending 2024 at UYU 42.38
per USD.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
Population (million):
GDP (USD bn):
GDP per capita (USD):
GDP growth (%):
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP):
Public Debt (% of GDP):
Inflation (%):
Current Account (% of GDP):
External Debt (% of GDP):
2019-21
3.5
59.0
16,708
-0.1
-4.0
67.9
8.5
-0.7
80.1
2022-24
3.6
78.3
21,939
3.0
-2.6
67.6
7.3
-2.8
73.9
2025-27
3.6
92.5
25,701
2.4
-2.2
5.2
-1.7
-
Adrià Solanes
Economist
Economic Growth
Change in GDP forecasts
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024
2020 - Q4 2024.
forecasts during the last 12 months.
Inflation
Change in inflation forecasts
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2023 and 2024
average variation in %, Q4 2020 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2024.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 138
Uruguay
Industrial Production | variation in %
September 2023
REAL SECTOR | Industrial output growth dips in June
Industrial output rose 0.4% in year-on-year terms in June, which was a
deterioration from May’s 0.9% increase. The figure was largely due to weaker
food output. In addition, chemical substances and products output lost pace.
Meanwhile, annual average industrial production growth fell to 0.5% in June
(May: +0.7%), which marked an over two-year low.
FocusEconomics panelists see industrial production expanding 1.1% in 2023,
which is down by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding
2.5% in 2024.
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production
in %.
Source: National Statistical Institute (INE).
Inflation | Consumer Price Index
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation falls to lowest level since September 2005
in August
Inflation came in at 4.1% in August, which was down from July’s 4.8% and
well within the Central Bank’s 3.0%–6.0% target range. August’s figure marked
the lowest inflation rate since September 2005. Looking at the details of the
release, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased at a weaker
pace in August while prices for clothing and footwear dropped at a sharper
pace.
Over-decade low inflation in Uruguay can be attributed to the change in the
Central Bank’s monetary framework from 2020, when the Bank switched to
using interest rates as the main policy tool to meet the inflation target, as well
as the lowering of the upper bound of the target range to 6% from 7% last year.
Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %. Expectations
of monthly variations of consumer price index in %.
Source: INE.
Monetary Policy Rate | in %
In addition, the trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in at
7.3% in August (July: 7.8%). Lastly, consumer prices rose 0.17% in August over
the previous month, swinging from the 0.36% drop recorded in July.
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 6.5% on average in
2023, which is down by 0.3 percentage points from one month ago, and rising
6.2% on average in 2024.
MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank cuts policy rate more than expected
in August
On 15 August, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Uruguay
(BCU) reduced its policy rate by 75 basis points to 10.00%, more than the 50
basis point cut the market was expecting. The move marked the continuation of
the monetary policy easing cycle that the Bank kicked off in April.
The Bank justified its decision by pointing toward the recent slowdown in
inflation to within the 3.0–6.0% target range, as well as its expectation that
inflation and inflation expectations would continue to ease in the months ahead.
The move was also likely linked with the Bank’s view that drought hit economic
activity in Q2.
Note: Monetary Policy Rate (TPM, Tasa de Política Monetaria) in %.
Source: Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
The Bank did not provide explicit forward guidance. Instead, it reiterated that
future decisions would be driven by the evolution of inflation and inflation
expectations. Our panelists see the BCU cutting rates further before year-end.
The next Monetary Policy Committee meeting is scheduled for 5 October.
FocusEconomics panelists see the monetary policy rate ending 2023 at 9.39%
and ending 2024 at 8.33%.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 139
September 2023
Uruguay
Economic Indicators | 2018 - 2027
Annual Data
Real Sector
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (UYU bn)
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %)
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %)
Private Consumption (ann. var. %)
Government Consumption (ann. var. %)
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %)
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %)
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %)
Industrial Production (ann. var. %)
Unemployment (% of active population, aop)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M1+ %)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop)
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop)
Average Deposit Rate (%, aop)
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, aop)
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (USD bn)
Merchandise Imports (USD bn)
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %)
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %)
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn)
International Reserves (USD bn)
International Reserves (months of imports)
External Debt (USD bn)
External Debt (% of GDP)
Quarterly Data
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop)
Monthly Data
Industrial Production (ann. var. %)
Unemployment (% of active population)
Money (ann. var. of M1+ %)
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %)
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %)
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop)
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
3.5
18,609
65.2
2,003
7.5
0.2
0.6
1.8
4.9
-10.5
-1.1
0.6
10.8
8.4
-2.7
59.0
3.5
17,620
62.0
2,188
9.2
0.7
-0.3
0.6
1.9
-2.0
4.6
1.3
-1.6
8.9
-3.2
60.1
3.5
15,189
53.6
2,255
3.1
-6.3
-4.7
-6.8
-7.1
1.2
-16.3
-12.2
-5.2
10.4
-5.2
74.4
3.5
17,313
61.3
2,675
18.6
5.3
6.5
2.9
8.4
16.5
11.7
18.2
12.3
9.3
-3.5
69.1
3.6
20,004
71.1
2,930
9.6
4.9
5.1
6.0
1.6
9.5
11.1
12.5
3.6
7.9
-3.2
67.1
3.6
22,476
80.2
3,109
6.1
1.3
1.9
2.1
0.4
2.2
2.4
3.5
1.1
8.2
-2.7
67.3
3.6
23,337
83.5
3,383
8.8
2.7
2.4
2.7
1.3
2.0
3.8
3.2
2.5
7.6
-1.8
68.3
3.6
24,550
88.1
3,809
12.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.1
2.9
3.1
3.3
2.8
7.4
-1.4
-
3.6
26,025
93.7
4,180
9.7
2.4
2.5
2.6
1.6
3.4
2.9
3.2
7.2
-2.6
-
3.6
26,527
95.8
4,408
5.4
2.4
2.5
2.4
1.6
3.0
2.7
2.8
7.0
-2.6
-
8.9
8.0
7.6
9.7
9.25
5.12
32.5
30.7
5.1
8.8
7.9
12.8
9.25
5.07
37.7
35.3
18.5
9.4
9.8
10.5
4.50
4.79
42.2
42.0
17.8
8.0
7.7
14.4
5.75
3.80
44.7
43.6
0.4
8.3
9.1
12.4
11.25
6.24
39.7
41.2
5.8
6.5
-3.8
9.39
40.2
38.8
6.3
6.2
2.9
8.33
42.4
40.5
5.7
5.7
5.9
7.31
44.1
43.2
4.9
5.0
45.2
44.6
4.8
4.9
46.9
46.0
-0.5
-0.3
2.4
11.8
9.4
5.9
2.5
0.0
15.6
19.9
43.0
66.0
Q3 22
3.4
9.9
9.7
41.6
Nov-22
-5.9
7.8
2.4
-0.28
8.5
39.6
1.2
0.8
3.1
11.9
8.8
0.7
-6.8
2.0
14.5
19.9
45.2
72.9
Q4 22
-0.1
8.3
8.6
39.7
Dec-22
1.1
7.9
0.4
-0.26
8.3
39.7
-0.8
-0.4
2.2
10.1
7.9
-15.2
-9.7
0.8
16.2
24.6
47.1
87.8
Q1 23
1.2
7.3
7.6
39.0
Jan-23
0.6
8.5
2.0
1.55
8.0
38.8
-2.5
-1.6
4.5
15.7
11.2
56.0
41.9
2.2
17.0
18.1
48.8
79.5
Q2 23
-0.4
6.0
6.9
37.6
Feb-23
1.0
8.1
3.3
1.00
7.6
39.1
-3.5
-2.5
3.5
17.1
13.6
8.8
21.4
3.8
15.1
13.3
55.5
78.1
Q3 23
1.8
4.8
5.4
38.7
Mar-23
4.1
8.6
16.6
0.90
7.3
39.0
-3.1
-2.5
3.7
17.6
13.8
2.9
1.7
15.5
13.5
57.9
72.2
Q4 23
2.6
5.8
5.8
39.4
Apr-23
-3.0
8.8
8.7
0.75
7.6
38.6
-1.9
-1.6
4.1
18.5
14.4
5.3
3.8
15.6
13.0
59.8
71.6
Q1 24
3.1
5.4
6.2
39.8
May-23
0.9
8.7
9.8
-0.01
7.1
38.8
-1.8
-1.6
4.8
19.5
14.7
5.3
2.2
17.1
13.9
61.1
69.4
Q2 24
2.9
6.2
5.9
40.3
Jun-23
0.4
8.2
8.6
-0.46
6.0
37.6
-1.8
-1.7
4.6
20.0
15.4
2.7
4.9
18.3
14.3
Q3 24
2.9
6.5
6.5
41.2
Jul-23
7.8
8.1
-0.36
4.8
37.7
-1.5
-1.4
4.6
20.9
16.3
4.7
6.0
19.1
14.0
Q4 24
2.3
6.4
6.0
41.9
Aug-23
0.17
4.1
37.8
Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 140
September 2023
Uruguay
Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance
Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance
Individual Forecasts
Barclays Capital
BBVA Argentina
Capital Economics
CINVE
Citigroup Global Mkts
EIU
Equipos Consultores
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
HSBC
Iecon - UdelaR
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Julius Baer
Moody's Analytics
Oikos
Oxford Economics
República AFAP
Torino Capital
Public Forecasts
CEPAL
World Bank
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
1 | Real GDP | 2011 - 2027 | var. in %
Real GDP
variation in %
2023
2024
2.5
1.0
2.0
2.3
2.5
1.5
1.0
3.0
2.7
1.0
1.0
3.0
2.5
1.2
1.4
2.8
1.8
2.8
1.8
2.6
1.8
2.3
1.2
3.0
1.0
3.2
3.6
1.0
1.0
2.5
2.2
0.3
1.8
2.6
2.3
1.9
1.2
2.2
3.5
1.1
1.9
Fiscal Balance
% of GDP
2023
-3.0
-3.2
-4.0
-3.2
-2.8
0.6
-3.1
-3.2
-
2024
-2.8
-3.2
-2.8
-2.5
5.5
-3.5
-3.0
-
1.0
1.8
2.6
2.8
-
-
0.3
2.0
1.2
1.3
2.2
3.6
2.6
2.7
-4.0
0.6
-3.1
-2.7
-3.5
5.5
-2.8
-1.8
1.5
1.6
1.7
2.7
2.7
2.6
-3.2
-3.2
-2.9
-2.8
-2.8
-2.5
2 | GDP 2023 | evolution of forecasts
3 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts
4 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not a part of the Consensus and are shown for informative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. The Consensus Forecast for Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) contains a range of definitions. All real sector
data are from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU, Banco Central de Uruguay) and Ministry of Economy and Finance
(Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas de Uruguay.) See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.
1
2
3
4
GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCU.
GDP, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCU and Ministry of Economy and Finance.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 141
September 2023
Uruguay
Monetary Sector | Inflation
Consumer Prices
Individual Forecasts
Barclays Capital
BBVA Argentina
Capital Economics
CINVE
Citigroup Global Mkts
EIU
Equipos Consultores
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
HSBC
Iecon - UdelaR
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Julius Baer
Moody's Analytics
Oikos
Oxford Economics
República AFAP
Torino Capital
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
5 | Inflation | 2011 - 2027 | in %
Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop
2024
2023
7.4
6.8
5.5
6.6
5.0
5.0
5.4
7.2
6.5
5.5
5.1
6.0
4.7
6.1
6.0
5.0
5.6
5.2
6.2
6.5
5.8
7.0
5.0
6.0
5.3
6.6
7.3
6.5
5.1
7.6
7.5
-
Consumer Prices
variation in %, aop
2023
2024
6.5
5.7
6.3
6.0
6.0
6.1
6.6
6.1
5.9
5.5
6.7
6.4
7.2
6.6
6.5
6.6
7.4
7.0
6.0
6.0
6.5
7.0
5.9
5.6
6.5
7.3
6.1
5.7
6.0
6.1
7.3
6.5
6.4
-
4.7
7.5
5.3
5.8
5.0
7.6
6.1
6.3
5.9
7.4
6.5
6.5
5.5
7.0
6.2
6.2
6.8
7.1
7.3
6.4
6.3
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
6.4
6.4
6.6
6 | Inflation | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in %
7 | Inflation 2023 | evolution of fcsts
8 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcsts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not a part of the Consensus and are shown for informative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
5
6
7
8
Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
Inflation, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 142
September 2023
Uruguay
Monetary and External Sector | Exchange Rate and Current Account
Exchange Rate and Current Account
Individual Forecasts
Barclays Capital
BBVA Argentina
Capital Economics
CINVE
Citigroup Global Mkts
EIU
Equipos Consultores
Euromonitor Int.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Solutions
FrontierView
HSBC
Iecon - UdelaR
Itaú Unibanco
JPMorgan
Julius Baer
Moody's Analytics
Oikos
Oxford Economics
República AFAP
Torino Capital
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
9 | Exchange Rate | UYU per USD
Exchange Rate
UYU per USD
2023
44.0
39.7
45.0
40.0
38.3
39.2
40.4
39.0
38.0
38.5
40.5
40.5
40.1
38.5
40.5
40.6
2024
45.0
42.3
47.0
42.0
40.7
41.6
41.8
41.0
41.5
42.0
42.5
41.0
42.6
-
Current Account
% of GDP
2023
2024
-2.3
-4.6
-3.2
-2.8
-2.8
-2.9
-4.7
-3.0
-1.3
-1.0
-2.7
-1.7
-2.6
-3.7
-1.4
-2.1
-4.5
1.0
-3.0
-3.2
-2.2
-2.2
-2.1
-2.8
-2.2
-2.4
-
38.0
45.0
40.1
40.2
40.7
47.0
42.0
42.4
-4.7
-1.3
-2.9
-3.1
-3.0
1.0
-2.2
-1.9
40.5
40.5
41.7
43.0
42.9
43.9
-2.9
-2.9
-2.4
-1.9
-1.9
-1.5
10 | UYU per USD | evolution of fcsts
11 | Current Account | % of GDP
12 | Current Account | evol. of fcsts
Notes and sources
* Forecasts are not a part of the Consensus and are shown for informative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU, Banco Central de
Uruguay) and Macrobond Financial AB. See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
9
10
11
12
Exchange rate, UYU per USD (eop). Source: Macrobond Financial AB.
Exchange rate, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCU.
Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 143
September 2023
Uruguay
Fact Sheet
General Data
Uruguay in the Region
Official name:
Oriental Republic
of Uruguay
Montevideo (1.7 m)
Canelones (0.4 m)
Maldonado (0.1 m)
176,215
3.5
20.1
0.3
77.9
1.3
Spanish
Metric system
GMT-3
Capital:
Other cities:
Area (km2):
Population (million, 2019 est.):
Population density (per km2, 2019):
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.):
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.):
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018):
Language:
Measures:
Time:
Economic Infrastructure
GDP | %-share in Latin America
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants):
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.):
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants):
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants):
33.4
150
74.8
28.3
Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu):
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu):
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h):
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h):
Oil Supply (thousand bpd):
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd):
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons):
123
220
13.5
10.4
2.0
49.1
6.7
Transportation (2018)
Airports:
Railways (km):
Roadways (km):
Waterways (km):
Chief Ports:
Population | %-share in Latin America
133
1,673
77,732
1,600
Montevideo
GDP by Sector | share in %
GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Trade Structure
Primary markets | share in %
Political Data
President:
Last elections:
Next elections:
Central Bank Govenor:
Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou
24 November 2019
2024
Diego Labat
Exports
Imports
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
Rating
Baa2
BBB+
BBB
Agency
Moody's:
S&P Global Ratings:
Fitch Ratings:
Strengths
• Stable political environment
• Strong public institutions
• Abundant natural resources
Outlook
Positive
Stable
Stable
Primary products | share in %
Weaknesses
• Highly dollarized economy
• Dependence on neighboring
economies
• Small domestic market
Exports
Imports
.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 144
Notes
September 2023
Notes and Statements
PUBLICATION NOTE
Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of
economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our
monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to
the annual figures due to different forecast panels.
The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates and
the world refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on
a monthly basis. Weights are based on Consensus Forecasts for
nominal GDP (USD billion).
The regional aggregates include the following countries:
Latin America (23 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil,
Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador,
El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico,
Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and
Tobago and Uruguay.
Andean Community (4 countries): Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador
and Peru.
Central America and Caribbean (13 countries): Belize, Costa
Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti,
Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and
Trinidad and Tobago.
Mercosur (4 countries): Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and
Uruguay.
World: 131 countries, comprising around 98% of global output.
COPYRIGHT NOTE
© Copyright 2023 FocusEconomics S.L.U. Duplication,
reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any
form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise
without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly
prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved
under International Copyright Conventions.
The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast is a monthly publication
of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or
FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:
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DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics
and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate,
complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The
Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this
information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of
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objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any
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LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
| 145
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ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR KEY INDICATORS IN 132 COUNTRIES IN 12 REGIONS
MAJOR ECONOMIES & SWITZERLAND G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Euro area, France,
Germany & Italy), Switzerland and overview of the BRIC countries
EURO AREA Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania,
Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain
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Montenegro, Romania, Serbia and Turkey
EAST & SOUTH ASIA Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Australia and New
Zealand
ASEAN ECONOMIES Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam,
Australia and New Zealand
LATIN AMERICA Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela
CENTRAL AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN Belize, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti,
Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad and Tobago
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen
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Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
REAL SECTOR GDP per capita, Economic Growth, Consumption, Investment, Industrial Production, Unemployment Rate,
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MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money, Inflation Rate, Policy Interest Rate, 10-Year Bond Yield and Exchange Rate
EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account, Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, International Reserves and External Debt
PRICE FORECASTS FOR 35 COMMODITIES IN 4 MAIN GROUPS
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